From @coo_gar: “His name is Garbo!” #catsofinstagram [source: http://ift.tt/1LEU49P ]
In 2003, researchers writing in the American Journal of Medicine discovered something that should change how you think about medical news. They looked at 101 studies published in top scientific journals between 1979 and 1983 that claimed a new therapy or medical technology was very promising. Only five, they found out, made it to market within a decade. Only one (ACE inhibitors, a pharmaceutical drug) was still extensively used at the time of their publication.
But you'd never know that from reading the press. Take a recent miracle procedure for multiple sclerosis. MS is a degenerative disease with no cure. In sufferers, the immune system attacks the protective layer around the nerves, disturbing the communication between brain and body — and causing a cascade of devastating symptoms: unsteady and jerking movements; loss of vision, bladder and bowel control; and eventually, early death.
In 2009, a breakthrough: a charming Italian researcher, Dr. Paolo Zamboni, claimed to have cured his wife's MS by "unblocking" the veins in her neck. He theorized MS wasn't an autoimmune disorder but a vascular one. The research was counterintuitive, it gave people with the disease hope, and it had an appealing personal tale behind it, involving one man's quest to save his wife. It was catnip for health reporters, who hailed "liberation therapy" as a romance-fueled medical triumph.
Sadly, however, Zamboni's discovery was more hype than breakthrough. What didn't get as much attention as his romantic quest was the fact that his study was small and badly designed. Other researchers who attempted to replicate his findings failed. Soon, anecdotes of patient complications and relapses emerged.
"What makes it news is that it's new. ... My view would be that brand new results would be the most likely to be wrong."This cycle recurs again and again. An initial study promises a miracle. News stories hype the miracle. Researchers eventually disprove the miracle.
"There's a big, big, difference between how the media think about news and how scientists think about news," Naomi Oreskes, a Harvard professor of the history of science, recently told me in an interview. "For you, what makes it news is that it's new — and that creates a bias in the media to look for brand new results. My view would be that brand new results would be the most likely to be wrong."
It’s a fact that all studies are biased and flawed in their own unique ways. The truth usually lies somewhere in a flurry of research on the same question. This means real insights don't come by way of miraculous, one-off findings or divinely ordained eureka moments; they happen after a long, plodding process of vetting and repeating tests, and peer-to-peer discussion. The aim is to make sure findings are accurate and not the result of a quirk in one experiment or the biased crusade of a lone researcher.
As science is working itself out, we reporters and our audiences seize on "promising findings." It's exciting to hear about a brand new idea that maybe — just maybe — could revolutionize medicine and stop some scourge people suffer through. We're often prodded along by overhyping scientists like Zamboni, who are under their own pressure to attract research funding and publications.
We don't wait for scientific consensus; we report a little too early, and we lead patients and policymakers down wasteful, harmful, or redundant paths that end in dashed hope and failed medicine.
This tendency could be minimized if we could only remember that the overwhelming majority of studies in medicine fail.
There have been more than 200 failures of supposed cancer breakthroughs in recent yearsForbes health writer Matthew Herper recently unpicked a new Vice documentary about a "miraculous" cancer cure. While the experimental therapies featured in the film seem to be the holy grail in cancer treatment at the moment, they're also the latest in a long line of seemingly "revolutionary" fixes. According to one of Herper's sources, in fact, there have been more than 200 failures of supposed cancer breakthroughs in recent years.
A highly regarded service that vets new studies for clinicians finds — on average — only 3,000 of 50,000 new journal articles published each year are well-designed and relevant enough to inform patient care. That's 6 percent.
More often than not, single studies contradict one another — such as the research on foods that cause or prevent cancer. The truth can be found somewhere in the totality of the research, but we report on every study in isolation underneath flip-flopping headlines. (Red wine will add years to your life one week, and kill you quicker the next.)
For a study on whether everything we eat is associated with cancer, academics randomly selected 50 ingredients from recipes in The Boston Cooking-School Cook Book. Most foods had studies behind them claiming both positive and negative results.
Researchers cannot always replicate the findings of other researchers, and for various reasons many don't even try. All told, an estimated 85 percent — or $200 billion — of annual global spending on research is wasted on badly designed or redundant studies.
This means early medical research will mostly be wrong until maybe eventually, if we're lucky, it's right. More tangibly, only a tiny fraction of new science will lead to anything that’s useful to humans.
We now live in an age of unprecedented scientific exploration. Through the internet, we have this world of knowledge at our fingertips. But more information means more bad information, and the need for skepticism has never been greater.
I often wonder whether there is any value in reporting very early research. Journals now publish their findings, and the public seizes on them, but this wasn't always the case: journals were meant for peer-to-peer discussion, not mass consumption.
Working in the current system, we reporters feed on press releases from journals and it's difficult to resist the siren call of flashy findings. We are incentivized to find novel things to write about, just as scientists and research institutions need to attract attention to their work. Patients, of course, want better medicines, better procedures — and hope.
But this cycle is hurting us, and it's obscuring the truths research has to offer. (Despite the very early and tenuous science behind liberation therapy, MS sufferers traveled the world seeking it out, and launched political movements calling for resources to fund the treatment.)
For my part, I've tried to report new studies in context, and use systematic reviews — meta-analyses of all the best studies on clinical questions — wherever possible. When scientists or other members of the media prematurely blow up a novel breakthrough, I've tried to convey the reality that it's probably not a breakthrough at all. The more I do this, the more I realize the truth in what Harvard's Oreskes, Stanford's John Ioannidis, and many other respected researchers have reiterated over the years: we need to look past the newest science to where knowledge has accumulated. There, we'll find insights that will help us have healthier lives and societies.
As we turn away from the magic pills and miracle treatments, I think we'll focus more on the things that actually matter to health — like education, equality, the environment.
It's not always easy, and the forces pushing us to the cutting edge are powerful. But I try to proceed cautiously, to remind myself that most of what I'm seeing today is hopelessly flawed, that there's value in looking back.
Memes never die.
Adam Victor Brandizzi
Hahah. mas não é verdade: dá trabalho mas vale a pena.
Adam Victor Brandizzi
Shortly after joining the faculty of UC San Diego in 1968, British artist Harold Cohen asked, “What are the minimum conditions under which a set of marks functions as an image?” He set out to answer this by writing a computer program that would create original artistic images.
The result, which he dubbed AARON, has been drawing new images since 1973, first still lifes, then people, then full interior scenes with color. These have been exhibited in galleries throughout the world.
Carnegie Mellon philosopher David E. Carrier writes, “A majority of the viewers of AARON’s work find recognizable shapes in it; the drawing above appears to contain human figures. But AARON here used only the twenty or thirty rules it usually uses, with no special reference to human beings. Does knowing this tell us something about the structure of representation?”
Cohen asks, “If what AARON is making is not art, what is it exactly, and in what ways, other than its origin, does it differ from the ‘real thing?’ If it is not thinking, what exactly is it doing?”
“At the risk of stating the obvious, it seems to me that one of the things human beings find interesting about drawings in general is that they are made by other human beings, and here you are watching the image develop as if it is being developed by another human being. … When the drawing is finished, it functions as a human drawing. … A large part of what we value in art is not the ability of the artist to communicate special meanings, but rather the ability of the artist to present the viewer with something that stimulates the viewer’s own propensity to generate meaning.”
About 70 people attended a picnic to celebrate an email list mishap last week that brought thousands of strangers together. Photo: Drew Wheeler
Thousands of Berkeley voters got stuck in an email storm last week after a technical glitch became a viral meme that prompted around 70 residents to hold a potluck picnic Sunday.
It all started late last Tuesday when Nigel Guest, president of a Berkeley community group called the Council of Neighborhood Associations, attempted to send an email to himself that mistakenly hit the inboxes of thousands of registered voters.
The brief email, with the subject line “test,” included a single character: “x.” Instead of ignoring the message, some of the recipients responded to ask why they gotten it. And, rather than replying only to Guest, they made the fateful, likely unintentional, decision to reply all.
Recipient Christopher Berry created a “highlights reel” from what’s been termed Berkeley’s “spampocalypse.”
Those replies, which also reached thousands, stirred up a range of sentiments and, from one recipient, threats of legal action. In the days that followed, hundreds of emails volleyed among those on the list. Amid a spate of initial questions from many about why they had received the message, one person wrote: “Oohhh a mystery, we have to figure out what we all have in common.”
Several pleaded with the group to stop replying all, and another list member cautioned: “You can’t close Pandora’s box once it is open.” Dozens of emails continued to be sent to the whole list, and there was no clear way to get out of the loop. According to Berkeley resident Christopher Berry, who created a “highlights reel” of the exchange and posted it online, approximately 100 emails went out over the first four hours.
One frustrated recipient wrote to Guest to complain, but her email hit the entire list: “You recently sent a test email that has resulted in an incredibly unprofessional email chain that is disrupting my studies with emails every two minutes. Please find a way to disable this email chain, or prevent this from happening in the future.”
Her note, however, only prompted a new wave of responses: “For God’s sake I’m an old man and want to be left alone. I live in Mexico,” said one. Replied another: “Let’s communicate like it’s 1999!”
About half an hour into the exchange, several members of the list began creating graphic memes to capture the experience.
Berkeley “spampocalypse” memes.
While some became irate at the intrusion, many others were highly amused by the hijinks, and sought to find ways to prolong what became known as the Berkeley “spampocalypse.” About an hour after the initial email, one person on the list suggested holding a potluck meet-up. Minutes later, a Facebook “support group” was created for people on the list who wanted to keep the hilarity going.
There was no word from Guest that first night, and one email recipient wrote: “I actually feel a little sorry for Nigel. This is not going to be pleasant to wake up to. Alternately, it’s a very good [psychological] test.”
Wednesday morning, Guest sent an email titled “Sincere apologies,” to explain that he had been setting up CNA’s email system when he inadvertently linked the organization’s main email account to a large list of people. He asked that the “reply alls” cease, and said he was working to correct the problem.
The emails, however, did not stop. Just after 11 a.m., one list recipient said he was very concerned about the messages, and shared his theory with the group about how his address might have been compromised. He said he believed Guest had stolen his email address, using “house equipment,” when he drove by Guest’s home, near the UC Berkeley Botanical Garden, on a recent outing. He wondered if Guest was “leeching on to devices that are somehow exposed.”
One recipient had his own theory about how his email address was compromised. See more from the “highlights reel.”
One woman in particular was not amused as the emails continued to roll in. About an hour after the leeching email, she sent a sternly worded message to the list to threaten legal action.
One woman threatened legal action after her email address was included in Guest’s test email. See more from the “highlights reel.”
There were also reports of angry phone calls, from several unhappy list members, to Guest as well as others who “replied all” and included their contact info in their email signatures.
A woman on the Facebook “survivor” group shared the following: “I just received a phone call from an extremely irate individual threatening to call the FBI on me to report the email spam. Has anyone every tried calling the FBI? It’s got to be harder than getting through to the post office.” She added: “I’m afraid to walk away from my computer ’cause someone might say something funny while I’m gone.”
Wrote Berry, in his Spampocalype highlights round-up, “Many of us found the outrage and frivolous appeals over something so benign and beautiful to be amusing.” That afternoon, the list activity hit a new peak. Wrote Berry: “In what may be the greatest act of trolling of all time, one email recipient sent an email to the listerv with fake instructions on how to unsubscribe.”
Those instructions told list recipients to write to CNA’s main email list with the words “Subscription terminate.” But, either due to continuing problems with CNA’s email system, or because the instructions were meant in jest, those emails, too, continued to reach the entire list of thousands.
The “Subscription terminate” command does not work as planned. See more from the “highlights reel.”
Word was spreading Wednesday about the list, as recipients told friends and neighbors about what had been taking place.
Wednesday afternoon, one person sent the following message to the group, with the subject line, “Please Subscribe Me?”: “There’s a lot of people that want out of this list, I know a bunch of people that want to be put on this amazing list. Is there a way that we can make that happen?” People began adding interested parties to the email list, which had a 5,000-person audience, according to one person getting the messages.
Meanwhile, over in the Facebook “support group,” those who found the episode amusing rather than maddening joked and reflected on the experience.
Said one woman: “I can’t stand it. I’m laughing so hard. People are still replying even as I type this! They just can’t stop themselves!”
One man wrote: “This has become such an important event in my life, and no one I try to explain it to can understand.”
Wrote another, on Thursday, “As of 10:47am on March 19th, I have counted 332 individual emails in my inbox relating to this whole matter. Come on people, pick up the pace! I’m only at 49% storage capacity in my gmail account. What could I possibly do with those extra 7 or 8 gigabytes?? My inbox isn’t going to fill itself up without your help, I want to see more replies. Don’t stop!”
It was also in the Facebook group that it became clear how the list recipients were connected. A woman who spoke to Guest said he had been working from a voter registration list with 16,000 names on it. He told her he had mistakenly linked about 2,000 of those names to the main email account, which he had tried to use to send a message only to himself. People with last names starting with the letters A-H were included. (One person who attended the picnic said Guest later said the email actually had gone to 5,000 people. Guest did not reply to a request from Berkeleyside for comment.)
Some on the Facebook group created T-shirt and button designs to memorialize favorite moments.
One person made buttons with the phrases “Subscription terminate” and “Re: test” (the subject line of many of the list emails). Another created a T-shirt to mark the occasion, reading “I replied all.”
Members came up with hashtags, such as #ChosenByNigel, and posited a variety of ideas about why they had been brought together and what they might do with the resulting energy and enthusiasm. Wrote one: “You have all been chosen. You will be contacted in the next 48 hours with more info regarding your mission. Best of luck.”
Wrote another: “All of us were chosen by Nigel for a greater purpose. I feel like we should do something. Together. For the community. I’m actually serious.” Others responded with ideas about what they might do, from creating “care packs for the homeless” to working with veterans or the unemployed. Another suggested that they might come up with training aimed at computer literacy classes for seniors. (Those ideas are still in development.)
Plans also firmed up for a Sunday “CNA Survivor Picnic” at Ohlone Park in North Berkeley. Wrote one group member: “Each of us had a moment where it dawned on us that this was more than an annoyance. It had become something crazy, random and hilarious. That is why I’m blowing off another potluck I was going to in order to attend the CNA Survivors picnic. I want to meet others who seized the humor and joy in the Spampocalypse and want to keep riding this random wave.”
Guest, pictured center in a brown shirt with a can of Spam he received as a gift, is surrounded by dozens of “CNA survivors.” Photo: Sofia Chang
About 70 people attended the Sunday picnic, and said the group wants to continue meeting on a monthly basis to solidify plans for volunteer efforts and build on the sense of community created by Guest’s mistake. Guest attended the picnic — and received a can of Spam as a thank-you gift. At one point, participants circled up to share their favorite memories from the email exchange.
Berry, who created the “highlights reel” from the email chain, said he had not been sure what to expect at the picnic.
“I thought it was going to be terrible,” he said. “Meeting up with a new group of strangers from the internet, you never really know what you’re going to get. But it was a 10 out of 10. Everyone was really friendly and really funny. We laughed and chatted, and whenever a newcomer came, the entire group welcomed them.”
Cris Benson described the group as “a good broad section of Berkeley” and said he felt it was a shared sense of humor that brought so many people together Sunday.
“It just grew organically out of proportion to what it was, and that’s what made it so great,” he said Monday. “I really did find kindred spirits at the picnic just because we are all connected by our sense of humor at this mistake that was made.”
Ben Bartlett and his wife, Yelda, said “We replied all.” Several members of the email storm got together last week at Eureka in Berkeley.
Berkeley native Ben Bartlett described last week’s exchange as “some sort of groundbreaking meta event: We are in the same geographic location. We are of a similar disposition, and we took this random email spam as an excuse to come together.”
“It’s really, really awesome, I’ve never experienced anything like it,” he continued. “Unlike social media, this was your email. It was like someone knocking on your door.”
Bartlett even composed a poem for the occasion, which he read during the sharing circle at the picnic: “The Message Came / It was a Test. / Who are you? / The people asked / Who are you? / Like yourself, / ‘I Replied All!'”
The “email storm” phenomenon has been documented on Wikipedia, but has not previously received such notoriety in Berkeley. The event is sometimes called a “Reply Allpocalypse,” and has made headlines in the past when it’s struck large companies such as Microsoft, or government entities such as the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department.
Bartlett hypothesized that a shared desire for community also added momentum to what transpired.
“We bonded over this,” he said. “Enough of us were into it to make it special. And I suspect that even the ones displeased by it kind of had to remark in wonder at what happened.”
Added Berry, who moved to Berkeley about three years ago and said he’s not really “involved in Berkeley things”: “It was really nice to meet people who also live in Berkeley. Now I might see them at Trader Joe’s and I’ll know that they’re my neighbor, and that they’re cool.”
Get the latest Berkeley news in your inbox with Berkeleyside’s free Daily Briefing. And make sure to bookmark Berkeleyside’s pages on Facebook and Twitter. You don’t need an account on those sites to view important information.
Scientists had a pigeon, hawk, and owl fly over super-sensitive microphones to measure how much sound was created by their flapping. Owls are known for their silent flying abilities and this is demonstrated by the barn owl in the GIF above. Watch the video
Lava flow from Hawaii’s hyperactive Kilauea volcano.
Discover the cosmos! Each day a different image or photograph of our fascinating universe is featured, along with a brief explanation written by a professional astronomer.
Explanation: Birds don't fly this high. Airplanes don't go this fast. The Statue of Liberty weighs less. No species other than human can even comprehend what is going on, nor could any human just a millennium ago. The launch of a rocket bound for space is an event that inspires awe and challenges description. Pictured above, an Atlas V rocket lifts off carrying NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission into Earth orbit 10 days ago to study the workings of the magnetosphere that surrounds and protects the Earth. From a standing start, the 300,000 kilogram rocket ship left to circle the Earth where the outside air is too thin to breathe. Rockets bound for space are now launched from somewhere on Earth about once a week.Tomorrow's picture: scaling the universe < | Archive | Submissions | Index | Search | Calendar | RSS | Education | About APOD | Discuss | >
Authors & editors:
Jerry Bonnell (UMCP)
NASA Official: Phillip Newman Specific rights apply.
A service of: ASD at NASA / GSFC
& Michigan Tech. U.
Let it go. (photo via mattryd7)
Now in contention for the world’s most incredible seed, I give you the seed of the Erodium plant. Powered by humidity, the seed falls to the ground and turns clockwise when wet (or counter-clockwise when dry) to effectively drill itself straight into the ground like a screw. The process here is sped up a bit, but it doesn’t appear to be edited or reversed. (via The Awesomer)
Adam Victor Brandizzi
To the architecture branch from TOR followers
Adam Victor Brandizzi