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26 Jun 02:46

Trump demands subservience and gets incompetence

Trump demands subservience and gets incompetence


President Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
Dana Milbank
Op-ed columnist covering national politics
Columnist
June 25 at 7:54 PM

Can’t anybody here play this game?

The Trump administration, if you haven’t noticed, is undergoing one of its frequent paroxysms of incompetence.

On the border, the administration holds hundreds of migrant children in deplorable conditions: filthy, frightened and hungry. The president ordered and then called off a massive immigration raid, and, in the middle of the chaos, the administration’s top border security official resigned Tuesday

Overseas, the administration is stumbling toward war with Iran, ordering and then canceling an attack. Iran on Tuesday said the White House is “afflicted by mental retardation,” and Trump responded by threatening Iran with “obliteration.”

Here in Washington, Trump just appointed a new press secretary for the third time and a White House communications director for the seventh time. He refuses to say whether he has confidence in his FBI director, his third, and he’s publicly feuding with the Federal Reserve chairman he appointed over whether Trump can fire him. Meantime, Trump is defying a Trump-appointed watchdog who called for the firing of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway for illegal political activities, and he’s brushing off the latest credible accusation of sexual misconduct by saying the accuser is “not my type.” And Trump’s protocol chief is quitting on the eve of the Group of 20 summit, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday, amid allegations that he carried a whip in the office. 

The chaos takes on many forms, but most of it stems from a single cause: Trump’s determination to run the country like “The Apprentice.” 

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Trump says Stephanie Grisham will be a 'fantastic' White House press secretary
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President Trump discussed escalating tensions with Iran at a signing of an executive order on affordable housing on June 25. (The Washington Post)

The common thread to the mayhem and bungling is Trump’s insistence on staffing his government with officials serving in temporary, “acting” roles at the pleasure of the president and without the stature or protection of Senate confirmation. This allows Trump to demand absolute subservience from appointees. Because he can replace them at will, they don’t contradict him. But this tentative status also means they lack authority within their agencies and the stature to stand up to Trump when he’s wrong. 

It’s no mere coincidence that the border debacle is the work of Trump’s Homeland Security Department, where every major border- and immigration-related agency is led by an “acting” official. Trump’s acting commissioner of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, John Sanders, just resigned after only two months on the job. The Post’s Nick Miroff and Josh Dawsey report that he will be replaced by the current acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Mark Morgan (who got the job after praising Trump’s policies on Fox News). Morgan, in turn, has only been on the job for a couple of months since Trump fired yet another acting director of ICE. Trump had also ousted his DHS secretary and his head of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and he has tabbed an “immigration czar” who has not yet accepted the job.  

It’s no mere coincidence, either, that the Iran debacle is occurring at a time when the Pentagon has been leaderless since Jim Mattis resigned as defense secretary in December. Patrick Shanahan had been the longest-serving “acting” defense secretary in history until last week, when Trump named another acting secretary, Mark Esper. Both men were reportedly with Trump when he ordered the Iran attack, which he later canceled after learning about possible casualties. It’s hard to imagine Trump ordering up a military attack on Mattis’s watch without first getting a casualty estimate. 

And it’s no mere coincidence that the man at the fulcrum of chaotic White House decision-making, chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, also serves in “acting” status. Politico’s Nancy Cook reports that Trump is tiring of Mulvaney (he had the nerve to cough during a Trump TV interview), though he might not yet replace him with a fourth chief of staff, because he likes Mulvaney’s “hands-off approach” to Trump’s “whims and decision-making style.” If he weren’t “hands-off,” he’d be fired. 

Trump is unabashed in his preference for this “Apprentice”-style, “you’re fired” leadership. It’s a theme of a new book about Trump’s Cabinet, “The Best People,” by Yahoo News national correspondent Alexander Nazaryan. Of his fondness for acting officials, Trump told Nazaryan: “It gives me a lot of leeway. It gives me great flexibility. I do like it. It’s such a big deal to get people approved nowadays. . . . We have actings, and we’re seeing how we like them.” 

In other words, the administration is run by people on perpetual tryout, perpetual probation, unable to make long-term plans or to command the respect of those they (nominally) lead. The Federal Aviation Administration, which botched its handling of the Boeing 737 Max crashes, has been led by acting officials. The Consumer Product Safety Commission, which bungled the recall of Fisher-Price’s Rock ’n Play bassinet, has been run by an acting chairwoman. (She announced last week she will step down at the end of her term in October.)

Now, Trump’s “actings” are causing babies to go hungry, and they may soon bumble us into war with Iran. But that’s okay, because Trump likes the “flexibility.”

24 Jun 21:56

The Land Where the Internet Ends

By Pagan Kennedy

Photographs by Damon Winter

Contributing Opinion Writer

    • 492

GREEN BANK, W.Va. — A few weeks ago, I drove down a back road in West Virginia and into a parallel reality. Sometime after I passed Spruce Mountain, my phone lost service — and I knew it would remain comatose for the next few days. When I spun the dial on the car radio, static roared out of every channel. I had entered the National Radio Quiet Zone, 13,000 square miles of mountainous terrain with few cell towers or other transmitters.

I was headed toward Green Bank, a town that adheres to the strictest ban on technology in the United States. The residents do without not only cellphones but also Wi-Fi, microwave ovens and any other devices that generate electromagnetic signals.

The ban exists to protect the Green Bank Observatory, a cluster of radio telescopes in a mountain valley. Conventional telescopes are like superpowered eyes. The instruments at Green Bank are more like superhuman ears — they can tune into frequencies from the lowest to the highest ends of the spectrum. The telescopes are powerful enough to detect the death throes of a star, but also terribly vulnerable to our loud world. Even a short-circuiting electric toothbrush could blot out the whisper of the Big Bang.

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Physicists travel here to measure gravitational waves. Astronomers study stardust. The observatory has also become a hub for alien hunters who hope to detect messages sent from other planets. And in the past decade, the town has become a destination for “electrosensitives” who believe they’re allergic to cellphone towers — some of them going so far as to wrap their bedrooms in mesh in hopes of screening out what they believe to be harmful rays.

Susan and John Howard live in Green Bank.
ImageSusan and John Howard live in Green Bank.
Susan and John Howard live in Green Bank.

This town, in other words, calls out to many kinds of eccentrics. And I guess I am one of them.

I came in hopes of finding a certain kind of wildness and solitude. I live in Massachusetts, and I often disappear into the forests and rivers to clear my head. I’ve always loved the moment when the bars on my phone disappear. When I’m out of range entirely, floating along in a kayak, time grows elastic. I stare down into that other kingdom below me, at the minnows darting through the duckweed, and feel deeply free — no one’s watching; no one knows where I am.

In theory, I could achieve this kind of freedom anywhere by shutting off my cellphone and observing an “internet sabbath.” But that has never worked for me — and I suspect it doesn’t for most other people either. Turn off your phone and you can almost hear it wheedling to be turned on again.

To experience the deepest solitude, you need to enter the land where the internet ends.

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The Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope, in the distant haze of afternoon light.
The Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope, in the distant haze of afternoon light.
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The telescope changes positions several times a day.
The telescope changes positions several times a day.

Ten years ago, it was easy to do that. But lately, even in the backwoods, my cellphone springs to life, clamoring for attention.

The off-grid places are disappearing. And that’s as it should be. We must wire up rural America; cell service is now a utility almost as essential as electricity or heat. In April, the Federal Communications Commission announced that it will hold the biggest auction of radio spectrum in this country’s history; the auction, scheduled for late this year, is part of an effort to spread cell coverage to even the most remote towns ahead of the rollout of 5G networks.

Unfortunately, ownership of the telecommunication grids will go to corporate giants rather than to the communities themselves. But even so, small towns are fighting to be wired up. It’s likely that in 10 or so years, the country will be blanketed with signal, from sea to shining sea.

I’m hopeful that when that happens, we might retain just a few quiet places where it’s still possible to disconnect.

Activists have already created “dark sky reserves” to protect wilderness from artificial light. In the future, might we also create “privacy reserves” where we can go to escape the ubiquitous internet?

I wanted to find out what it was like to disconnect in the quietest town in America, so here I was, hiking down a dirt road behind the Green Bank observatory campus. I wandered through a meadow and into an abandoned playground. The rusted swings creaked in the wind.

Playground equipment on the observatory campus.
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Playground equipment on the observatory campus.
Playground equipment on the observatory campus.

In the distance, the largest of the Green Bank telescopes reared up over a hill like a shimmering apparition, with its lacy struts and moon-white dish. The telescope is so freakishly huge that it looked completely unreal, as if it had been C.G.I.-ed into the sky.

But the quiet was even eerier. Not just radio quiet, but the kind of silence that I hadn’t heard in years: no buzz of the highway, no planes overhead, just the rush of wind through the grass. That — along with the lonely playground — made me feel as if I had stumbled onto the set of an apocalyptic TV series.

The spell broke when a truck bumped down the road and disgorged three dogs. A gray-haired fellow stepped out. I hurried toward him and asked if he lived here. He introduced himself as Stephen McNally, a retiree who’d lived in Green Bank for 12 years.

While his dogs chased swallows, I peppered Mr. McNally with questions. Did he own a cellphone? He told me he never had. But, he said, lately whenever he ventures outside of the quiet zone, “people tell me you have to get one.” Recently, at a hardware store a hundred miles from here, he tried to pay with a credit card that he hadn’t used in years. That must have tripped some security alert, because the store clerks said that they needed to verify his identify by calling the phone number listed on his account. “They wanted to call me to make sure that it was really me,” Mr. McNally said. He tried to explain that his phone wasn’t in his pocket. It was back in Green Bank, because it was a landline. The clerks couldn’t seem to grasp this.

The National Radio Quiet Zone comprises 13,000 square miles of mountainous terrain with few cell towers or other transmitters.
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The National Radio Quiet Zone comprises 13,000 square miles of mountainous terrain with few cell towers or other transmitters.
The National Radio Quiet Zone comprises 13,000 square miles of mountainous terrain with few cell towers or other transmitters.

Mr. McNally seemed to be of the opinion that the rest of the country, out there beyond the mountains, was losing its mind.

Noreen Prestage, a tour guide at the observatory, agreed. She told me that she had lived in Green Bank for 17 years, happily, without a cellphone. But just the week before, she’d felt it necessary to buy a basic mobile phone so that she could rendezvous with friends and her son when she went outside the zone. “I don’t want it,” she said of the phone, but if you’re going to make plans out there, you have to have it.

“When I walk around my house, I’m silent,” she said. “I think people have lost the ability to be present with themselves. There’s nothing wrong with sitting on your deck looking at the hills. I don’t even have an answering machine.”

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Because they’re hard-wired, answering machines are allowed here, if you want one. And though homeowners must agree to do without Wi-Fi, they can connect to the internet through an Ethernet cable. So when I arrived at my rental cottage in the late afternoon, I found it equipped with a thingamabob to plug my laptop into the Ethernet line. It took me a moment to remember the name of that thing: a dongle. I hadn’t needed that word since the ’90s.

Cass, an old railroad town six miles from Green Bank, lies within the Radio Quiet Zone.
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Cass, an old railroad town six miles from Green Bank, lies within the Radio Quiet Zone.
Cass, an old railroad town six miles from Green Bank, lies within the Radio Quiet Zone.

Also reminiscent of the ’90s: I could enter the internet only from one corner of a room — and it was so slow that I half expected to see an AOL logo materialize on the screen.

Nowadays, I often flick on a news podcast when I’m eating alone, but that would have taken too much work with the retro setup, so instead I chewed in a reverie. I began to imagine an alternate reality in which smartphones had never existed. What if, instead of going all-in on mobile phones in the early 2000s, we just hadn’t?

Social media would probably have remained in the Second Life phase — with people creating clubhouses and personalities that they played around with on the weekends — instead of smartphones fusing together our first and second lives until we couldn’t tell them apart.

Now the phone is a magic wand that can summon pizza, or a car, or a friend, or a booty call. We can ruin our lives in the space of a few moments — by buying drugs from China, or with an ill-advised comment at 3 a.m., or by getting tangled up in a stranger’s fantasies. Sometimes, pulling my phone out of my pocket, I feel the way I do when I’m standing on the rooftop of a tall building, like maybe some impulse will send me hurtling into the air. It’s glorious, to be equipped with all of this magic and danger every moment of the day. It’s also exhausting.

At twilight, I parked near a long, low laboratory building and walked through the gates of the observatory, beyond which no gas-powered cars are allowed (because spark plugs). I passed the row of telescopes and found a dirt path into the woods. The darkness dropped, and the outlines of my body disappeared. Baby frogs — peepers — chirped and creaked, filling the air with their own static. Deer crashed around the brush or scooted across the path in front of me, invisible in the dark but for their white tails.

My fingers twitched for the cellphone that wasn’t there. And then I remembered a moment years ago, maybe in 2011 or 2012, when I first switched from a “dumb phone” to a smartphone and brought the internet with me into the woods.

Gas-powered cars are not allowed within the gates of the observatory.
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Gas-powered cars are not allowed within the gates of the observatory.
Gas-powered cars are not allowed within the gates of the observatory.

That day, I had discovered a rusted “No Trespassing” sign nailed into a pine tree; the sign had been there so long that the bark had grown around it. It was as if the tree-jaws were munching it up, slowly swallowing it. If I hadn’t had a smartphone, I would have simply observed this, making a wry joke to myself. But now that I did have the internet itching at me, all I could imagine was the eye-catching photo this would make on Twitter.

Then I stopped myself. What the hell? By turning this thought into a post, I was trespassing on my own most precious solitude.

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When we talk about privacy, we tend to think about people spying on us online and harvesting our data. But just as dangerous — perhaps more so — is the way that the omnipresent, in-your-pocket internet can coax us into destroying our own inner wilderness.

That day, the urge to tweet was so acute that I had to wrestle with myself for a moment. And then I decided, “I’m just going to tweet this thought back to myself.” And so rather than snapping a photo, I “posted” the image to my own mind. Since then, I have taken innumerable imaginary snapshots.

I’m not the only one struggling with this urge. In many of our national parks, you can yak on the phone as you climb a mountain, post selfies as you dangle precariously over a cliff and live-tweet your encounter with an osprey. In 2017, Outside magazine reported that Instagram had lost its mind over a particularly photogenic canyon in Arizona called Horseshoe Bend. The red-rock outcropping went viral, and now thousands of people a day swarm over it. Can such places truly be called wild anymore?

About 150 people live in Green Bank, in houses scattered around a two-lane highway or tucked back in the woods. You can get basic groceries at Trent’s General Store, but if you want something to go, your best bet is Henry’s Quick Stop, a gas station with a supermarket, pizza counter and red-white-and-blue box where you can leave your tattered American flag for proper disposal. So that’s where I went for coffee the next morning.

“Beautiful day,” I said to the man in front of me in line. In response, he poured out his life story. He’d been a long-haul trucker until a brain aneurysm put him in a coma; the doctors thought he’d never walk again. But now here he was on his own two feet buying a doughnut, so, yeah, it was a hell of a beautiful day.

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Most small towns in the Quiet Zone have at least one pay phone.
Most small towns in the Quiet Zone have at least one pay phone.
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Betty Mullenax working the register at Trent’s General Store, Green Bank’s main grocer.
Betty Mullenax working the register at Trent’s General Store, Green Bank’s main grocer.

The man carried himself oddly, with his chest puffed out and his head swiveling as if to scan everything in the store, from the hunting gear to the Little Debbie display case. I thought his posture must have been a remnant from his brain injury, but then realized everybody seemed to be walking around with the same heads-up attitude. Take away the cellphones, it turns out, and you also take away the cellphone hunch. And with nothing else to do but meet one another’s eyes, people talk.

Later in the day, I fell into conversation with a woman who was unusual for a Green Banker, in that she had owned a cellphone for years. Before she moved here, she told me, she’d been the workaholic assistant to a workaholic manager, and “I was 24/7 on call all the time.”

“I slept with the phone next to my bed in case my boss had to get ahold of me,” she said. “I was tethered to that phone. I didn’t realize how much I was on it until I looked at my vacation pictures. All the pictures I was in, I was staring at my phone.”

Then, about a year and a half ago, her husband had persuaded her to move here — he’s a Green Bank man, “born and raised,” and yearned to return home. Nowadays, “My husband and I go to dinner, and we talk all through the night” with no interruptions, she said. Her husband rattles around in an old truck, knowing that if it breaks down, somebody will stop and pick him up. If you need to make a call, you can always stop into the Dollar General and ask to use their landline — but really, when do you need to make a call?

This life is not for everyone, she told me, and she has seen a lot of people up and leave. Maybe 80 percent of people just can’t hack it.

I know I’m part of that 80 percent. I belong on the outside. But at the same time, I feel as if something essential to my sanity depends on the existence of places like this.

On my third and final day in town, the observatory’s largest instrument, the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope, shut down for maintenance, and I was allowed to summit it. The telescope is taller than the Statue of Liberty and one of the largest manufactured, steerable objects on the face of our planet. An elevator that jerked like an amusement-park ride took us to the top, where a steel walkway led out onto the surface of the dish, a two-acre white expanse. I watched a maintenance worker moon-walk across its bouncy surface. He appeared to be lost in a white desert, the blue sky hanging below him like a lake.

A worker on the surface of the Robert C. Byrd Telescope on a training day.
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A worker on the surface of the Robert C. Byrd Telescope on a training day.
A worker on the surface of the Robert C. Byrd Telescope on a training day.

Mike Holstine, the business manager and spokesman for the Green Bank Observatory, told me there’s so much we can learn from the telescope — from the location of near-Earth asteroids to the way that matter first began to congeal into stars. Such scientific observations depend on signals as weak as “a billionth of a billionth of a billionth of a watt,” he said.

For years, microwave ovens have been tightly regulated in Green Bank because they can obliterate those barely detectable signals from billions of years ago. But what are scientists supposed to do now that just about every household object — from toaster to battery — is chattering to the internet? Even car tires are beaming out status updates about their air pressure. “That makes quiet an increasingly valuable resource for science,” Mr. Holstine said. And increasingly rare.

The situation has become so dire that scientists are preparing for what you might call The End of Quiet. Ellie White, a student at Marshall University who has been volunteering and doing research at the observatory since she was 14, told me that experts at the observatory are working on ways to detect and remove unwanted interference caused by, say, a tourist speeding through town in a car equipped with Bluetooth. The idea is to be able to identify the human-made signals and strip them out of the data, so that it’s still possible to tune in the most subtle emanations from light-years away. Imagine noise-canceling headphones for the universe.

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CreditThe lattice work under the 2.3 acre dish.
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But who will save the endangered Quiet Zone inside our own heads? What about the thoughts as subtle as the static caused by the Big Bang and the transmissions from the remote galaxies of our memories? Is the ever-present hum of the internet drowning those out, too?

Mr. Holstine said that here in Green Bank, “I use the internet, and then I walk away.” But on the outside, people are “connected all the time,” he added. “They get a text and have to look at it. For a lot of people, the choice seems like it has disappeared. The phone is part and parcel to everything they do, including work. It’s the tail wagging the dog.”

After a few days here, almost entirely offline, I felt I knew what he meant: The world outside the mountains now seemed mad to me, too.

How can we protect resources like starlight, quiet and obscurity that have little value in the marketplace?

Astronomers have been thinking about that question for decades, and they have come up with an answer: International Dark Sky Places. In these protected areas, you can wander under a splatter of stars and grapple with the evidence of your own insignificance in a vast universe. The Central Idaho reserve became the United States’ first International Dark Sky Reserve in 2017. With 1,400 square miles protected from artificial light, it attracts astro-tourists from around the world.

The telescopes at Green Bank are powerful enough to detect the death throes of a star. These photographs were taken on medium format film with a mechanical camera that contained no electronics and required no electricity. To prevent interference, the photographs taken nearest the radio telescopes were made without the aid of a light meter, timer or any device that required a battery.
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The telescopes at Green Bank are powerful enough to detect the death throes of a star. These photographs were taken on medium format film with a mechanical camera that contained no electronics and required no electricity. To prevent interference, the photographs taken nearest the radio telescopes were made without the aid of a light meter, timer or any device that required a battery.
The telescopes at Green Bank are powerful enough to detect the death throes of a star. These photographs were taken on medium format film with a mechanical camera that contained no electronics and required no electricity. To prevent interference, the photographs taken nearest the radio telescopes were made without the aid of a light meter, timer or any device that required a battery.

But we have no similar protections for disconnection, privacy and offline communities. And if no one advocates for these intangibles, the last quiet places will soon be gone.

In 2012, the National Science Foundation considered a proposal to shut down the Green Bank observatory — and ended up slashing its support by about 40 percent. Nowadays, the observatory depends on private foundations and universities to make up the shortfall.

If the observatory were to disappear, then so too, presumably, would the National Radio Quiet Zone.

When I packed up the car and drove out of Green Bank, I was confident that I knew how to find my way. But almost immediately, I turned the wrong way at a fork in the road and realized I was lost. I decided to savor the experience. After all, how often these days do you have a chance to be lost? The road led me past old rail yards and toward a river, where I plunged in and waded, slip-sliding on the rocks.

Soon I would cross into the land where the internet begins. But for now, I was on this side of the line. For now, I was dark.

21 Jun 00:06

Horns are growing on young people’s skulls. Phone use is to blame, research suggests.

Horns are growing on young people’s skulls. Phone use is to blame, research suggests.

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Researchers at the University of the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, Australia, have documented the prevalence of bone spurs at the back of the skull among young adults. (Scientific Reports)
June 20 at 4:40 AM

Mobile technology has transformed the way we live — how we read, work, communicate, shop and date.

But we already know this.

What we have not yet grasped is the way the tiny machines in front of us are remolding our skeletons, possibly altering not just the behaviors we exhibit but the bodies we inhabit.

New research in biomechanics suggests that young people are developing hornlike spikes at the back of their skulls — bone spurs caused by the forward tilt of the head, which shifts weight from the spine to the muscles at the back of the head, causing bone growth in the connecting tendons and ligaments. The weight transfer that causes the buildup can be compared to the way the skin thickens into a callus as a response to pressure or abrasion.

The result is a hook or hornlike feature jutting out from the skull, just above the neck.

In academic papers, a pair of researchers at the University of the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, Australia, argues that the prevalence of the bone growth in younger adults points to shifting body posture brought about by the use of modern technology. They say smartphones and other handheld devices are contorting the human form, requiring users to bend their heads forward to make sense of what’s happening on the miniature screens.

The researchers said their discovery marks the first documentation of a physiological or skeletal adaptation to the penetration of advanced technology into everyday life.

Health experts warn of “text neck,” and doctors have begun treating “texting thumb,” which is not a clearly defined condition but bears resemblance to carpal tunnel syndrome. But prior research has not linked phone use to bone-deep changes in the body.

[Twitter undermines learning. Now there’s data to prove it.]

“An important question is what the future holds for the young adult populations in our study, when development of a degenerative process is evident in such an early stage of their lives?” ask the authors in one paper, published in Nature Research’s peer-reviewed, open-access Scientific Reports. The study came out last year but has received fresh attention following the publication last week of a BBC story that considers, “How modern life is transforming the human skeleton.”

Since then, the unusual formations have captured the attention of Australian media, and have variously been dubbed “head horns” or “phone bones” or “spikes” or “weird bumps.”

Each is a fitting description, said David Shahar, the paper’s first author, a chiropractor who recently completed a PhD in biomechanics at Sunshine Coast.

“That is up to anyone’s imagination,” he told The Washington Post. “You may say it looks like a bird’s beak, a horn, a hook.”

However it is designated, Shahar said, the formation is a sign of a serious deformity in posture that can cause chronic headaches and pain in the upper back and neck.

Part of what was striking about the findings, he said, was the size of the bone spurs, which are thought to be large if they measure 3 or 5 millimeters in length. An outgrowth was only factored into their research if it measured 10 millimeters, or about two-fifths of an inch.

The danger is not the head horn itself, said Mark Sayers, an associate professor of biomechanics at Sunshine Coast who served as Shahar’s supervisor and co-author. Rather, the formation is a “portent of something nasty going on elsewhere, a sign that the head and neck are not in the proper configuration,” he told The Post.

[As Walmart turns to robots, it’s the human workers who feel like machines]

Their work began about three years ago with a pile of neck X-rays taken in Queensland. The images captured part of the skull, including the area where the bony projections, called enthesophytes, form at the back of the head.

Contrary to conventional understanding of the hornlike structures, which have been thought to crop up rarely and mainly among older people suffering from prolonged strain, Shahar noticed that they appeared prominently on X-rays of younger subjects, including those who were showing no obvious symptoms.

The pair’s first paper, published in the Journal of Anatomy in 2016, enlisted a sample of 218 X-rays, of subjects ages 18 to 30, to suggest that the bone growth could be observed in 41 percent of young adults, much more than previously thought. The feature was more prevalent among men than among women.

The effect — known as enlarged external occipital protuberance — used to be so uncommon, Sayers said, that one of its early observers, toward the end of the 19th century, objected to its title, arguing that there was no real protrusion.

That’s no longer the case.

Another paper, published in Clinical Biomechanics in the spring of 2018, used a case study involving four teenagers to argue that the head horns were not caused by genetic factors or inflammation, pointing instead to the mechanical load on muscles in the skull and neck.

And the Scientific Reports paper, published the month before, zoomed out to consider a sample of 1,200 X-rays of subjects in Queensland, ages 18 to 86. The researchers found that the size of the bone growth, present in 33 percent of the population, actually decreased with age. That discovery was in stark contrast to existing scientific understanding, which had long held that the slow, degenerative process occurred with aging.

They found instead that the bone spurs were larger and more common among young people. To understand what was driving the effect, they looked to recent developments — circumstances over the past 10 or 20 years altering how young people hold their bodies.

“These formations take a long time to develop, so that means that those individuals who suffer from them probably have been stressing that area since early childhood,” Shahar explained.

The sort of strain required for bone to infiltrate the tendon pointed him to handheld devices that bring the head forward and down, requiring the use of muscles at the back of the skull to prevent the head from falling to the chest. “What happens with technology?” he said. “People are more sedentary; they put their head forward, to look at their devices. That requires an adaptive process to spread the load.”

Michael Nitabach, a professor of physiology, genetics and neuroscience at Yale University, was unconvinced by the findings.

“Without knowing about the cell phone use of any of the people whose head X-rays were analyzed, it is impossible to draw conclusions about correlation between cell phone use and skull morphology,” he said.

That the bone growth develops over a long period of time suggests that sustained improvement in posture can stop it short and even ward off its associated effects, the authors said.

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Living smarter with tech: How to be a better you
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How can we use technology without it taking over our lives? See expert advice on how to be a smarter you with technology. (Jhaan Elker/The Washington Post)

Sayers said the answer is not necessarily swearing off technology. At least, there are less drastic interventions.

“What we need are coping mechanisms that reflect how important technology has become in our lives,” he said.

Shahar is pressing people to become as regimented about posture as they became about dental hygiene in the 1970s, when personal care came to involve brushing and flossing every day. Schools should teach simple posture strategies, he said. Everyone who uses technology during the day should get used to recalibrating their posture at night.

As motivation, he suggested reaching a hand around to the lower rear of the skull. Those who have the hornlike feature can probably feel it.

18 Jun 04:37

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-fret-over-the-never-ending-trump-show/2019/06/17/bd03a856-8dfe-11e9-8f69-a2795fca3343_story.html?utm_term=.9cc97cd9451a

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

This article pretty deftly covers the main reason (name recognition) that it's nearly impossible to defeat any incumbent. And 2016 showed that the content of the coverage of Trump didn't matter; just that it was Trump all the time. He's really good at grabbing the spotlight, even in a way that makes him look bad (which clearly doesn't matter), and sadly that's why I think he'll likely be reelected.

What I personally am looking for among the Democratic nominees (and have yet to find in any of them) is someone who will not try to run on "issues." Issues and plans for what to do in office can come later. Issues matter only to those voters who already know how they're voting in 17 months and are highly unlikely to change that decision.

Influenceable voters -- who all claim to care about issues (for who wants to admit to themselves that they don't?), but actually don't -- will vote for whoever is most memorable.

If I see someone in the debates next week whose behaviors match that goal of being most memorable, policy wonk details be damned, that's the Democrat I'm supporting (so long as that's the only person doing it). It'll be kind of hard to tell, because obviously nobody campaigning that way is going to come out and say "well, I'm going to ignore all that issues bullshit" -- even Trump never did that; he just reduced all issues to a few soundbytes.

But if it's nothing but talking about issues, we're all screwed and between being most memorable and incumbency, Trump can relax about 2020.

Democrats fret over the never-ending Trump Show

Michael Scherer
National political reporter covering campaigns, Congress and the White House
June 17 at 6:00 AM

After 23 campaign launches, 33 televised town hall meetings, hundreds of campaign events and tens of thousands of candidate selfies, the Democratic primary has started with a bang this year — busier and bigger than any other in recent memory.

But the Democratic circus still can’t compete for attention with the spectacle of President Trump. The country remains far more focused on a ubiquitous commander in chief than on all the Democratic presidential candidates combined, a major concern for party strategists preparing for the general election in 2020.

“Donald Trump has managed to control the media cycle on a daily basis in ways that have made it difficult to communicate our message,” said Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez, who will begin his party’s official answer to the Trump Show on June 26 and 27, with the first of 12 televised prime-time Democratic debates.

New data compiled by The Washington Post shows just how steep a climb the party faces. Through the first five months of the year, Trump has received about three times as much Google search interest in the United States, on average, as all his Democratic rivals put together.


He has been having about 75 percent more social media interactions on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram than his rivals combined since February.


And when it comes to CNN, MSNBC and Fox News Channel, Trump was mentioned nearly twice as often as the 23 Democrats last month.


Democratic Party leaders remember all too well the overwhelming attention that Trump, then a celebrity and colorful TV personality, attracted during the 2016 campaign, allowing him to sell his defiant appeal to independents and drum up enthusiasm in the GOP base.

“You will find yourself jerked around on Donald Trump’s chain unless you are creating fights,” said Brian Fallon, who served as the national press secretary for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

By the end of the 2016 primaries, the 12 Republican debates had been watched by 183 million viewers, more than double the 72 million that tuned in to the nine Democratic faceoffs, according to the liberal think tank NDN.

As president, Trump will have even more power to seize the spotlight this time, enabling him to eclipse Democratic events almost at will. “Think I will do many more Network Interviews, as I did in 2016, in order to get the word out,” he announced Saturday on Twitter.

Party leaders fully expect a media blitz. The question for Democrats is whether there’s any way to counter Trump’s media barrage. Few public figures are willing to be as provocative, insulting or outrageous as he is, and arguably few have his flair for it.

For now Democrats are groping toward a strategy of shooting for higher ratings — recognizing they may never match Trump — while also teeing up a slew of advertising campaigns on issues such as health care and jobs to get out their message.

Perez has made ratings a top priority for the debates, some of which will unfold over two consecutive nights. To increase interest, he allowed even candidates who are polling below 1 percent to qualify if they could attract 65,000 donors, in hopes of encouraging those donors to watch the debates because they will have a stake in the process.

Perez says that he’s optimistic and that the public has soured on Trump’s antics, but he also argues that news organizations are to blame for much of the attention given Trump over the years. “I think the media needs some soul-searching,” he said. “Too many media outlets and journalists wake up in the morning, look to his Twitter feed and that dictates their day.”

Whatever the reason, the party’s candidates have drawn modest ratings. The highest-rated cable town hall session for a Democrat — Sen. Bernie Sanders’s appearance on Fox News Channel — topped 2.5 million viewers. At least a dozen others were unable to break 1 million, with six falling below half a million.

In contrast, the first Republican debate in August 2015 drew more than 24 million people eager to see Trump’s debut as an unorthodox presidential contender.

Democratic strategists note that it’s early in the process, and they contend that Trump’s combative tactics have alienated many supporters while energizing opponents. More voters will tune in to Democratic events in the fall, they say, as the presidential field narrows and candidates begin their sprint toward the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses.

Democrats also have sought to learn lessons from their 2016 defeat. In the 2018 congressional campaigns, Democratic candidates battled daily with a news cycle dictated by Trump or dominated by his controversies — such as the Russia investigation, his alleged sexual encounter with adult-film star Stormy Daniels, and his near-daily Twitter grenades on everything from migrant caravans to alleged corruption at the FBI.

The key to Democratic success this time, some party strategists argue, will be to focus on issues that affect voters’ lives, such as health care, education and wages. But news organizations often view those issues as less flashy, they say, so their candidates will have to buy ads to spread the word.

“We have a culture that rewards the clown show at the expense of real issues,” said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, a super PAC that plans to spend heavily to defeat Trump.

“One of the biggest challenges” for Democrats in the midterms, Cecil said, “was a huge disconnect between what was being covered on cable news and what campaigns were being run on in the states.” He added, “The way that Democrats got attention on health care was they paid for it.”

Democrats outspent Republicans in the 2018 election on broadcast ads, running more than 1 million spots that mentioned health care over the course of the cycle, according to an analysis by Kanter Media.

It will be harder to follow that same playbook in 2020, given Trump’s substantial early fundraising advantage and the fact that he will be on the ballot, not just commenting from the sidelines.

“We had the luxury of Trump not being a candidate,” said Dan Sena, who was executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which coordinates the party’s House races. “We had things like the tax fight and the health-care fight that directly impacted people’s lives immediately.”

This year, Trump has continued to create storms of media coverage that have often blotted out reporting about the Democratic campaign — attacking the royal Duchess Meghan and actress Bette Midler on a recent trip to England, siding with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over his national security advisers in Japan, trumpeting tariff showdowns with China and Mexico.

Even when it comes to one-on-one conflicts, Trump has found a way to come out on top, at least in terms of media attention. When former vice president Joe Biden, a Democratic presidential candidate, traveled to Iowa last Tuesday to deliver a speech declaring Trump an existential threat to the nation, Trump responded with his own inflammatory comments.

That night, on the evening newscasts by NBC, CBS and ABC, Trump was rewarded for his quotes, which were if anything more jarring and aggressive. “He’s a dummy,” Trump said of Biden, while also calling him “mentally weak” and suggesting that he has lost a step as he has aged.

“Trump’s sound bites are more incendiary, more unseemly, more crudely insulting — and therefore spicier for TV news to use,” said Andrew Tyndall, who runs a newsletter that tracks network news broadcasts.

Long before he entered politics, a key insight of Trump’s career was that public attention, even if negative, could translate to power. As a real estate developer and celebrity, he courted controversy and conflict for decades, showing little capacity for embarrassment.

“The show is Trump, and it’s sold-out performances everywhere,” he told Playboy magazine in 1990, when asked about the criticism he got for ostentation.

During the 2016 campaign, Trump expanded upon the theory. “News outlets around the world are covering Trump. The key word is covering,” he told a Time magazine reporter at one point. “It’s not the polls. It’s the ratings.”

There is no doubt that he dominated the ratings in 2016, even though most of the news coverage about him was negative. Between the start of his campaign and winning the nomination, Trump received 63 percent of the coverage in a field of 17 candidates, according to a 2016 study by the Shorenstein Center at Harvard University, which used data from Media Tenor, a firm that tracks print, cable and broadcast news content.

In the general-election campaign, Trump received 15 percent more coverage than Clinton after the party conventions, the same study found.

More important, his voice dominated many of the stories no matter the subject.

“When a candidate was seen in the news talking about Clinton, the voice was typically Trump’s and not hers,” wrote Harvard professor Thomas Patterson, the report’s author. “Yet when the talk was about Trump, he was again more likely to be the voice behind the message.”

Members of Clinton’s campaign say her strategy of attacking Trump’s character in television ads, while focusing on her own policy plans, did not work and will have to change in 2020 for a Democrat to win. Trump understood better how creating conflict, outrage and even debates about his truthfulness would lead to more coverage and ultimately benefit him, they say.

“I think what separates the people that truly could break through in their own right are people who are willing to stake out positions even when they come with a lot of controversy attached,” Fallon said.

The current Democratic candidates have latched onto a wide array of tactics as they attempt to break through the crowded field. Former Colorado governor John Hickenlooper has structured his campaign around attacks on “socialism,” Sanders has renewed his assault on the “billionaire class” and Biden has focused his campaign squarely on denunciations on Trump himself.

Others, such as Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., have tried to replicate Trump’s approach of constant media exposure, albeit in their own ways.

“One of the reasons Donald Trump thrived in 2016 was he was fearless and went in and did interviews everywhere and didn’t even care if he bombed,” said Lis Smith, a senior communications adviser to the Buttigieg campaign. “He knew if he sucked up all of the oxygen, no one else would have a chance to rise. Good attention, bad attention — all of that fed his candidacy.”

Concern that Trump will continue his dominance of the American imagination has given Buttigieg a key part of his stump speech, a promise that he could dislodge Trump as the focus of attention as the campaign continues.

“The biggest question is, ‘How are we going to win?’ ” he said June 9 at a state party gathering in Iowa. “The only thing we can do is to look at that show this president has created — whatever you want to call it, a reality show, horror show, game show — and we are going to change the channel to something completely different.”

Anu Narayanswamy and Christine Loman contributed to this report.

17 Jun 23:22

Philosophy News Network: Science Solves Philosophy

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

Shared for the crawler in the last panel.

[description]: Simone de Beauvoir at news desk.
Simone de Beauvoir: \


Voice from inside the machine: \
05 Jun 22:40

Gretchen Carlson Resigns As Board Chair Of Miss America Organization

by Erik Pedersen
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

Five bucks says she was ousted behind the scenes, for trying to not have the ladies be nekkid.

To be . . . "fair," the competition is basically all about ladies being nearly nekkid. Trying to have it not have that component is kinda like saying "I'd like to hold some horse races without any actual horses."

A former Miss America now is a former head of the Miss America Organization. Gretchen Carlson is stepping down as board chairman for the group that puts on the annual competition. She had been a driving force for the elimination of the pageant’s once-signature swimsuit competition. Last year’s ABC-aired event was the first without one. […]
05 Jun 17:26

Comments

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

This is why, TOR excepted, I never read the comments section on anything.

Also: Randall Munroe understands the internet a little too well for comfort.

NPR encourages you to add comments to their stories using the page inspector in your browser's developer tools. Note: Your comments are visible only to you, and will be lost when you refresh the page.
03 Jun 20:16

After SpaceX Starlink Launch, a Fear of Satellites That Outnumber All Visible Stars

Images of the Starlink constellation in orbit have rattled astronomers around the world.

A constellation of Starlink satellites seen in the night sky over the Netherlands, nearly 24 hours after being launched by SpaceX.CreditCreditBy Marco Langbroek Via Reuters

Last month, SpaceX successfully launched 60 500-pound satellites into space. Soon amateur skywatchers started sharing images of those satellites in night skies, igniting an uproar among astronomers who fear that the planned orbiting cluster will wreak havoc on scientific research and trash our view of the cosmos.

The main issue is that those 60 satellites are merely a drop in the bucket. SpaceX anticipates launching thousands of satellites — creating a mega-constellation of false stars collectively called Starlink that will connect the entire planet to the internet, and introduce a new line of business for the private spaceflight company.

While astronomers agree that global internet service is a worthy goal, the satellites are bright — too bright.

“This has the potential to change what a natural sky looks like,” said Tyler Nordgren, an astronomer who is now working full-time to promote night skies.

And SpaceX is not alone. Other companies, such as Amazon, Telesat and OneWeb, want to get into the space internet business. Their ambitions to make satellites nearly as plentiful as cellphone towers highlight conflicting debates as old as the space age about the proper use of the final frontier.

While private companies see major business opportunities in low-Earth orbit and beyond, many skygazers fear that space will no longer be “the province of all mankind,” as stated in the Outer Space Treaty of 1967.

[Sign up to get reminders for space and astronomy events on your calendar.]

The Starlink launch was one of SpaceX’s most ambitious missions to orbit.

Each of the satellites carries a solar panel that not only gathers sunlight but also reflects it back to Earth. Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder and chief executive, has offered assurances that the satellites will only be visible in the hours after sunset and before sunrise, and then just barely.

But the early images led many scientists to question his assertions.

The first captured images, for example, revealed a train of spacecraft as bright as Polaris, the North Star. And while a press officer at SpaceX said the satellites will grow fainter as they move to higher orbits, some astronomers estimate that they will be visible to the naked eye throughout summer nights.

The satellites can even “flare,” briefly boosting their brightness to rival that of Sirius, the brightest star in the sky, when their solar panels are oriented just right.

Astronomers fear that these reflections will threaten stargazing and their research.

Whenever a satellite passes through a long-exposure picture of the sky, it causes a long bright streak — typically ruining the image and forcing astronomers to take another one. While telescope operators have dealt with these headaches for years, Starlink alone could triple the number of satellites currently in orbit, with the number growing larger if other companies get to space.

One estimate suggests that the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope — an 8.4-meter telescope under construction on a Chilean mountaintop that will soon scan the entire sky — might have to deal with one Starlink satellite in every couple of images it takes during the first few hours of twilight.

And astronomers don’t yet know how they will adjust. “We’re really at that point where we have to assess what we’re going to do,” said Ronald Drimmel, an astronomer at the Turin Astrophysical Observatory in Italy.

Not only do these satellites reflect light, they also emit radio frequencies — which a number of astronomers find troubling. Dishes used in radio astronomy are often built in remote locations far from cell towers and radio stations. But if Starlink is launched in full — with the ability to beam reception toward any location on the planet — those so-called radio quiet zones might become a thing of the past.

Moreover, some are worried that Starlink plans to operate on two frequency ranges that astronomers use to map the gas throughout the universe — allowing them to see how planets as large as Jupiter assemble, and how galaxies formed immediately after the Big Bang.

“If those frequency channels become inaccessible, it’s extremely limiting to what we can learn about the early universe,” said Caitlin Casey, an astronomer at the University of Texas at Austin.

Similar concerns emerged in the 1990s when Iridium launched dozens of satellites — which made their own flashes in night skies — to provide global satellite phone coverage. The Iridium constellation’s impact was ultimately minimal as technologies changed, and because it never grew larger than 66 satellites. The most reflective of its satellites are now gradually falling from orbit.

The National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a federally funded research center that operates facilities across the world, said on Friday in a statement that it has been working directly with SpaceX to minimize potential impacts. The group is discussing what it called exclusion zones around some radio astronomy facilities, where SpaceX’s satellites would power down when traveling overhead.

Dr. Casey worries that this could still restrict where radio astronomers can work.

Image
A view of Starlink’s satellites just before being deployed on May 24.CreditSpaceX

This week on Twitter, Mr. Musk said that Starlink will avoid using one of those two frequency ranges. But Dr. Casey said it’s possible that the adjacent frequencies the satellites will use might spill into areas astronomers study — even if they’re technically blocked.

Despite the outcry, Dr. Drimmel said he wasn’t calling for Starlink to be brought to a halt.

“I don’t presume that astronomy should be held more important than everything else,” he said. “So there may be some give and take, and compromises that need to be made.”

But he does worry about the irrevocable impact on human culture should internet satellites forever alter the face of the night sky.

“What I find astounding is that whatever we do will affect everyone on the planet,” Dr. Drimmel said.

Alex Parker, a planetary astronomer at the Southwest Research Institute, noted on Twitter that if nearly 12,000 of these satellites orbit, they could soon outnumber all of the stars visible to the naked eye. And even if just 500 are observable at any given time, Dr. Drimmel warns that it will be difficult to pick out constellations among those moving lights.

“It sounds dystopian,” Dr. Casey said.

Most of the frustration stems from the fact that discussions about the impact of this project did not take place before launch. And it may only be the beginning.

“It truly is the tip of the iceberg, especially as we get into a world where you have multibillionaires with the ability and the desire to do things like this,” Dr. Nordgren said.

So astronomers are hopeful that today’s conversation might shape the future. “I think it’s good that we’re making noise about this problem,” Dr. Drimmel said. “If we’re not aware of the threat, so to speak, this will all happen as planned and then it will be too late.

Already, Mr. Musk has asked SpaceX to work on lowering future satellites’ brightness.

And other companies seem to be taking note. A press officer at Amazon said that it will be years before Project Kuiper — the company’s plan to place more than 3,000 internet satellites into orbit — is available. But Amazon will assess space safety and concerns about light pollution as they design their satellites, the press officer said.

Another entrant, Telesat, said its smaller constellation would operate at higher orbits than some companies’ satellites, making their satellites fainter.

Mr. Musk also upset some astronomers when he said on Twitter that Starlink was for the “greater good.”

“Who has the right to decide that?” Dr. Nordgren asked. “And do we all agree that that trade-off is one that we’re all willing to make?”

The night sky has the power to make people feel awe, he said.

“A star-filled night sky reminds us that we are part of a much larger whole, that we are one person in a world of people surrounded by the vast depths of the visible universe,” Dr. Nordgren said.

While they may see Starlink’s goal as worthy, scientists question whether it is truly the greater good.

“I’m sure there will be positive impact in terms of bringing the internet to the world, but just blatantly saying as one person or one company that this takes precedence over our knowledge of our own universe is scary,” Dr. Casey said.

Ultimately, many agree that the risks are far too great for this decision to be made by one company. And Dr. Casey is hopeful that SpaceX will take a cooperative approach with major astronomy organizations.

“The idea that one or two people somewhere in some country in some boardroom can make the decision that the constellations hereafter will suddenly be fluid, and move from night to night and hour to hour — well, I don’t think that’s their decision to make,” Dr. Nordgren said.

31 May 04:05

US energy department rebrands fossil fuels as 'molecules of freedom'

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

Circa 2003, whenever I'd order a burger and fries at the gril at Food Court at Dartmouth, I'd ask for "Freedom Fries." The guys behind the grill used to laugh and cackle so much at that. One day, I heard them get into a discussion with each other about the umpteenth time I made that joke, and one guy had apparently interpreted it completely unironically as my just being an American Patriot who liked Operation Iraqi Freedom and disliked France for not liking Iraqi Freedom, and the other guys at the grill were having a HEATED argument over the genuine merits or not over calling them freedom fries.

I should have gotten academic credit for that. My work was done.

America is the land of freedom, as any politician will be happy to tell you. What you don’t hear quite so often is that the stuff under the land is also apparently made of freedom as well. That is, at least according to a news release this week from the Department of Energy (DoE).

Mark W Menezes, the US undersecretary of energy, bestowed a peculiar honorific on our continent’s natural resources, dubbing it “freedom gas” in a release touting the DoE’s approval of increased exports of natural gas produced by a Freeport LNG terminal off the coast of Texas.

“Increasing export capacity from the Freeport LNG project is critical to spreading freedom gas throughout the world by giving America’s allies a diverse and affordable source of clean energy,” he said.

ryan cooper (@ryanlcooper)

actual Trump admin quote: "Increasing export capacity from the Freeport [liquid natural gas] project is critical to spreading freedom gas" https://t.co/KgZdh3V2Mt

May 29, 2019

The concept of “freedom gas” may seem amorphous, but it’s actually being measured down to the smallest unit.

“With the US in another year of record-setting natural gas production, I am pleased that the Department of Energy is doing what it can to promote an efficient regulatory system that allows for molecules of US freedom to be exported to the world,” said Steven Winberg.

Jay Inslee (@JayInslee)

This has to be a joke. (Remember freedom fries?) https://t.co/ei9Idg613X

May 29, 2019

It’s unclear if members of the Trump administration attempting to assign patriotic intentions to natural gas are aware of the silliness of the concept, but Rick Perry seems to believe in it.

“Seventy-five years after liberating Europe from Nazi Germany occupation, the United States is again delivering a form of freedom to the European continent,” the energy secretary said earlier this month, according to EURACTV.

“And rather than in the form of young American soldiers, it’s in the form of liquefied natural gas.”

29 May 02:06

Here’s an Actual Nightmare: Naomi Wolf Learning On-Air That Her Book Is Wrong

Photo: Roger Askew/REX/Shutterstock

In the pantheon of nightmares, somewhere between “falling into an endless pit” and “back at high school but naked” is “going on national radio and learning, on-air, that the book you wrote and is to be published in two weeks is premised on a misunderstanding.” Naomi Wolf, unfortunately, is living that nightmare.

When she went on BBC radio on Thursday, Wolf, the author of Vagina and the forthcoming Outrages: Sex, Censorship, and the Criminalization of Love, probably expected to discuss the historical revelations she’d uncovered her book. But during the interview, broadcaster Matthew Sweet read to Wolf the definition of “death recorded,” a 19th-century English legal term. “Death recorded” means that a convict was pardoned for his crimes rather than given the death sentence.

Wolf thought the term meant execution.

There’s a shocking silence on-air after Sweet says he doesn’t think Wolf is right about the executions Outrages delves into. Sweet looks at the case of Thomas Silver, who, Wolf wrote in her book, “was actually executed for committing sodomy. The boy was indicted for unnatural offense, guilty, death recorded.” Silver, as Sweet points out, was not executed.

“What is your understanding of what ‘death recorded’ means?” Wolf asked him on-air, mere moments after he had already explained to her how Old Bailey, London’s main criminal court up until 1913, defined it. Sweet pulled up his own research — news reports and prison records — showing the date that Thomas Silver was discharged.

Death recorded, he says, “was a category that was created in 1823 that allowed judges to abstain from pronouncing a sentence of death on any capital convict whom they considered to be a fit subject for pardon.” And then the blow: “I don’t think any of the executions you’ve identified here actually happened.”

Before Sweet delivered the punch, Wolf was audibly ready to speak about the “several dozen” similar executions she noted in her book, many of which rely on her completely wrong understanding of the term “death recorded.” But there is no historical evidence that shows anyone was ever executed for sodomy during the Victorian era, Sweet said on Twitter. Which means … much of the premise of Wolf’s entire book is just false.

Wolf cited on Twitter historical findings from a peer-reviewed article written by A.D. Harvey, a historian who’s been labeled a hoaxer. (He deceived the public into thinking that Charles Dickens and Fyodor Dostoyevsky met once and created several online personas and an entire fake community of academics.)

The book hits U.S. stands on June 18, according to the Amazon listing. A Houghton Mifflin Harcourt spokesperson offered this statement: “While HMH employs professional editors, copyeditors, and proofreaders for each book project, we rely ultimately on authors for the integrity of their research and fact-checking. Despite this unfortunate error we believe the overall thesis of the book Outrages still holds. We are discussing corrections with the author.”

To her absolute credit, Wolf is taking this on the chin. On Twitter, Wolf and Sweet appear cordial. There’s a tweet from Sweet that indicates Wolf is going to look into her research and make necessary corrections. And a thread in which Wolf thanks Sweet for correcting her and promises to review “all of the sodomy convictions on Twitter in real time so people can see for themselves what the sentences were and what became of each of these people.”

Outrages has already been released in the U.K. under Virago Press, a division of Hachette Book Group that publishes feminist works and supports women authors. Virago hasn’t returned a request for comment.

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28 May 16:38

Are Blowout Presidential Elections A Thing Of The Past?

by Geoffrey Skelley
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

This article is interesting, but I think perhaps a bit misleading:

1) A simple check of wikipedia confirmed that 1904, 1908, and 1916 were also single-digit popular vote margins.

2) 1912 was a 3-way race in which Republican Teddy Roosevelt decided to take the White House away from Republican Taft and give it to Democrat Wilson. Taft + Roosevelt = within a single-digit margin of Wilson, and within an even narrower single-digit margin of Wilson + Debs.

3) Ergo, double-digit wins don't start until the Great Depression. It continues through WWII, and ends in 1988.

4) Some stuff was happening during that period of double-digit wins. Great Depression, WWII, Cold War.

5) Maybe the abnormality is double-digit wins, and now that the cold war is over, we're regressing back to normal levels of partisanship?

Maybe when we're afraid we're going to starve, we toss out every incumbent president until we get a charismatic leader like FDR who makes us feel like somebody is doing something about the GD? Maybe when we're afraid that Hitler will control most of the western world, Hirohito the eastern world (and, viscerally even if not intellectually, afraid that one or both of them will conquer the US as well), we really pretty strongly around one candidate or the other, and ignore the more trivial bullshit? Maybe when we're afraid that the USSR might vaporize us before breakfast, somebody is going to win decisively, and not get bogged down in less-than-existential-threat matters?

6) So, if #5 is correct, maybe in a really twisted and fucked up way, the level of a partisanship is a sign that things are pretty good in the broadest strokes, even as there are issues where things are definitely really really bad?

These days, Americans are pretty divided when it comes to politics. Opinions about President Trump are like night and day — Democrats loathe him, and Republicans love him. And political disagreements show up all over the place, including decisions about where to live. Naturally, these divides are reflected in elections, perhaps most noticeably in presidential contests, since voters turn out in greater numbers for them than any other races in the U.S.

If we look at the national popular vote margin of presidential elections since the end of the Civil War — the period in which the current two-party system largely took form (though the parties have certainly changed politically over the years)21 — we are currently living in the most competitive era of presidential politics.

The 2016 contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was the eighth consecutive presidential race in which the national popular vote margin was smaller than 10 percentage points. That is, in every presidential election from 1988 to 2016, the difference between the vote shares of the Democratic and Republican nominees was in the single digits. That’s the longest stretch of such elections since the Civil War, surpassing a run of seven straight single-digit margins from 1876 to 1900.

In the recent string of close elections, there have been two in which the nominee who won the national popular vote didn’t win the Electoral College — 2000 and 2016. Before 2000, the last time a candidate had won the popular vote but not the Electoral College was in 1888.

Now, some might not consider a large single-digit margin — such as Barack Obama’s 7-point win in 2008 — to be “close.” But it’s worth noting that out of 21 presidential elections from 1904 to 1984 — or the time between these two competitive periods — only nine had margins in the single digits. The other 12 were double-digit blowouts.

What was behind the competitiveness of presidential elections in the late 19th century and our current time? Most obviously, both eras featured high levels of political polarization and partisanship. According to VoteView.com, the largest ideological gaps between the two parties in Congress occurred at the end of the 19th century and around our present time. And recent data from the Pew Research Center shows that the American public has been becoming more politically polarized. Other research has found twin peaks in partisanship in the late 19th century and the current era, with highly nationalized elections that exhibited consistent voting patterns from state to state. It’s no coincidence that Electoral College maps in both periods often looked very similar from election to election.

Whether you like it or not, we are living in the longest era of highly competitive elections since the Civil War. Partisanship is strong, and opinions of the president are deeply polarized. This might be a sign that the 2020 presidential election will be close — and that the streak of single-digit margins in recent elections will continue.

24 May 22:28

Wittgenstein At The Doctor

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

Joanna needs to print this out and tape it to her office door.

Doctor: \


Wittgenstein: \
24 May 18:37

Shatner Of The Mount by Fall On Your Sword

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

Shatner 2020?

The offical single, Captain Of The Mount is now available at the iTunes store.
Captain Kirk is climbing a mountain, why is he climbing a mountain?

Official single "Captain Of The Mount" now available at the iTunes store

24 May 00:33

William Shatner "Rocket Man"

Shatner's "Rocket Man" condensed to just the performance.

20 May 17:53

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Politics

by tech@thehiveworks.com


Click here to go see the bonus panel!

Hovertext:
We are psychologically invincible!


Today's News:
15 May 17:24

After Walking Thousands Of Miles, Mink The Bear Is Almost Back Home

Hanover, N.H., Deputy Fire Chief Michael Hinsley in the woods with Mink the bear.

Courtesy of Michael Hinsley

For years, an elderly resident of Hanover, N.H., fed one particular female black bear. The old man's food offer of choice? Birdseed and maple-glazed doughnuts from a diner down the street.

Then the man died, and the bear started venturing out farther in search of more delicious treats.

She had become comfortable around humans, and people in town grew to love her — a lumbering, strong but gentle animal that would come right up to your door. She's named Mink, after a local natural area called Mink Brook.

"She's a beautiful bear. She's an amazing bear," said Hanover Town Manager Julia Griffin. "Anybody that likes animals was enchanted by her."

She's a beautiful bear. She's an amazing bear. Anybody that likes animals was enchanted by her.

Julia Griffin, Hanover Town Manager

But others were scared, and state wildlife officials decided, for safety's sake, the bear needed to go. They planned to shoot her, but local news outlets picked up the story and a petition to save Mink got thousands of signatures.

Then New Hampshire's governor intervened, and had Mink relocated instead.

Mink had to move

Just under a year ago, officials dropped Mink off with a tracking collar far north, near the Canadian border.

Mink the bear's travels from April through October 2018, as tracked by New Hampshire Fish and Game.

Courtesy of New Hampshire Fish and Game

But she immediately started making her way back.

"She was going 30 miles a day," said Ben Kilham, a biologist who has been tracking Mink's location. "If anything, we should get her into a triathlon."

She has logged thousands of looping miles, crossing Interstate 91 and the Connecticut River multiple times.

The lead bear official for the state of New Hampshire said he's never dealt with an animal that's traveled so long, hibernating for the winter and then continuing on. He now checks her progress first thing every morning.

She was going 30 miles a day. If anything, we should get her into a triathlon.

Ben Kilham, wildlife biologist

He's not alone in his interest. Even the governor asked to be included on the data. "And he's clearly been watching," Kilham said. "Probably the whole office down there has been watching, because it's fascinating the way she moves."

Bears are known to be able to find their way home, or at least try to. That's why wildlife officials believed killing Mink was more humane than putting her through an arduous journey.

"To see how far she traveled, and how thin she was last fall, we all felt like — oh boy — what have we done to this sow?" Griffin said.

Until recently, though, the general public didn't know Mink was getting close. But earlier this spring, a woman named Patricia Campbell spotted a bear outside her house, less than 20 miles from Hanover.

Campbell took a bunch of photos, and Mink once again ended up in the local news.

Biologists now say she could be back in Hanover anytime. From there, her future is unclear.

"If she comes right back as our nuisance bear in Mink Brook corridor," Griffin said, "I don't know what more we can do."

At this point, wildlife officials are taking things day by day. There's no plan in place if Mink makes it back. They're just hoping she'll lie low in the woods.

14 May 02:02

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Utilitarian

by tech@thehiveworks.com


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Hovertext:
Before you tell me I've misunderstood, bear in mind that your email will decrease my happiness.


Today's News:

Soonish is out in paperback for just 12 bucks!


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07 May 15:44

The One-Income Trap

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

I disagree with Ross Douthat on a lot of things, but he's one of those conservatives whom I consider to be arguing in reasonable ways even when I disagree with him.

The One-Income Trap

How Elizabeth Warren inspired a conservative policy debate.

Ross Douthat

By Ross Douthat

Opinion Columnist

    • 582
CreditGetty Images
Image
CreditCreditGetty Images

Recently, under the somewhat unlikely inspiration of Elizabeth Warren, some conservatives have revived an old debate: Did millions of women entering the work force actually make families worse off?

In her lost days as a heterodox public intellectual, Warren made the case that indeed it did, because instead of getting richer, dual-earner households found themselves in what she and her daughter, Amelia Warren Tyagi, called the “two-income trap,” bidding up the price of real estate and child care, losing the division-of-labor benefits of homemaking, and generally working harder for little or no economic gain.

This argument, now almost 15 years old, has been picked up lately by social conservatives worried about the decline of marriage and childbearing and frustrated by the Republican Party’s longstanding inattention to family policy. On Fox News, Tucker Carlson has become a tribune of the idea that the G.O.P. should try to help families live on a single income. And two weekends ago in these pages, Helen Andrews argued that American politics desperately needs a prominent spokeswoman for the desires and interests of mothers who prefer to stay home.

[The topics new parents are talking about. Evidence-based guidance. Personal stories that matter. Sign up now to get NYT Parenting in your inbox every week.]

In response, another group of conservatives has sprung to the two-earner household’s defense, with arguments distilled in a new op-ed by Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute. First, Strain argues, Warren’s old analysis exaggerated the costs borne by dual-income households and understated their economic gains; in reality, most two-earner households in the 2000s are better off than equivalent one-earner couples in the 1960s, and the American economy has benefited immensely from women entering the work force.

In addition, Strain continues, nothing prevents today’s households from opting to live on one income, and if women don’t make that choice, it’s a sign that they find work advantageous and empowering. “In the end,” he concludes, “the good things about family life that social conservatives rightly celebrate are perfectly compatible with two-earner households.” And a conservatism that seems opposed to them will be purely reactionary, speaking for a traditionalist subgroup rather than the needs and aspirations of most women and most men.

Let me try to play mediator between these camps. I’ll start by agreeing with Strain’s two strongest points. First, he’s right that some of the calculations that Warren made appear dubious in hindsight, and her argument that households with two earners are worse off in a strict material sense seems weak. Where they spend more, as on housing, they seem to get more — houses are bigger than 50 years ago, for instance, and more likely to be air-conditioned — and while the cost of child care has risen, the average two-earner income has risen fast enough to compensate.

Second, Strain is right to emphasize that part of dual-earner culture reflects understandable female ambition, the desire of half the human race to use its “talents, ideas and energy” in ways that sexism and unjust discrimination long prevented or forestalled. A pro-family politics that assesses this liberation purely in terms of socioeconomic gains or losses is missing something; a pro-family politics that treats it as a cultural disaster will never persuade many accomplished women to give conservatism a second look. If cultural conservatism isn’t compatible with two-earner households (households like my own, for the record), it isn’t compatible with American culture in any plausible near-future form.

However, now I’ll switch to the Carlson-Andrews side, and suggest that Strain’s tone is too sanguine about where our culture of work and parenting has taken us. If it’s true that the two-earner economy reflects the genuine desires and interests of many families, it’s also true that lots of families would like to opt out of it, even temporarily, and can’t, precisely because they would fall behind in the “bidding war over middle-class amenities” that Andrews describes in her Op-Ed.

This is the real “trap” created by two-earner culture. There are many families that want to raise kids on one income, or one income and some part-time work, and instead find themselves pressured, financially and culturally, to keep up with the dual-earning Smith-Joneses next door.

That pressure has major human costs. If you look at expressed female desires in our society, there is both a substantial unmet maternal preference for part-time work over full-time work and a general desire for more children than American women are currently having. These two desires are intimately connected: No matter how gender-egalitarian society becomes, the physical realities of gestation and childbirth make it natural for most families to desire at least a temporary division of labor during the years when their kids are young, a temporary period of male breadwinning to balance the burden borne by mothers. And a working world that doesn’t accommodate this natural desire will end up with, well, what we increasingly have in the West — a lot of well-off dual-earner couples but fewer successful relationships and fewer children than either sex desires.

Part of the problem here is that in reacting against a social conservatism that seems hostile to female ambition, much of feminism has subjected itself to corporate capitalism instead, and embraced a “lean in” norm that essentially asks women to accommodate themselves to career paths made for men. This leads to angst when professional women have children and the demands of corporate life push them back into the old division-of-labor patterns. But worse, it requires a lot of cultural deception about how easy it is to postpone having kids, joined to a crude, “freeze your eggs” form of corporate patriarchy (draped in wokeness, but no less anti-woman for all that) that’s good for Apple and Google but lousy for long-term female happiness.

Nor is the existing liberal answer to some of these dilemmas — universal day care of the kind that Warren now champions — a sufficient response. Day care can be great for families (again, for the record, our own kids have been in wonderful programs), and to repurpose Strain’s line, the good things about family life that social conservatives rightly celebrate are perfectly compatible with pre-K and nursery school and early-childhood care.

But there are many families that don’t want full-time day care just as there are many families that don’t want two full-time jobs, and their desire can be entirely reasonable. Great preschools are no easier to build than great high schools, and if you think your kids might be better off in the care of a parent or with some extended family member, then a system designed around a dual-income plus day care norm will likewise feel like a burden, or a trap.

The better way here, as I have argued with tedious frequency, would be for conservatives skeptical of the two-earner norm to make common cause with feminists skeptical of the corporate bias against female biology and for both to unite around supports for family life that are neutral between different modes of breadwinning. Don’t subsidize day care, don’t subsidize stay-at-home moms; just subsidize family life, and let the sexes figure out how best to balance work and life, their ambitions and their desire for kids.

The practical obstacles to this kind of feminist-conservative centrism may seem substantial, but the practical case for odd alliances is just as strong. As Lyman Stone recently argued in First Things, the evidence from Europe suggests family policies are most effective when they’re understood as part of a flexible pro-family consensus, rather than as attempts to impose a single normative model on women and families. In other words, a pro-family conservatism that simply rejects the two-earner household as a failed experiment won't be able to establish a successful policy consensus. But neither will a feminism that writes off the aspects of traditionalism that reflect what many women want.

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As I’m trying to mediate between conservative factions here, I’ll end with this thought: The turn toward skepticism about two-earner households will change conservatism for the better to the extent to which it encourages a certain skepticism about how corporations treat families and an awareness of how government ignores them.

But to win the political battles that Carlson and Andrews envision, social conservatism needs not only visible female champions but also a rhetoric and a program that persuades women who are largely happy with their working lives that its fight can be theirs as well.

06 May 11:25

Two Wolves And A Sheep

by Scott Alexander

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. “Mutton” takes the popular vote, but “grass” wins in the Electoral College. The wolves wish they hadn’t all moved into the same few trendy coastal cities.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. The Timber Wolf Party and the Gray Wolf Party spend most of their energy pandering shamelessly to the tiebreaking vote.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. Everyone agrees to borrow money, go to a fancy French restaurant, and leave the debt to the next generation.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. The sheep votes for the Wolf Party, because he agrees with them on social issues.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. “Grass” wins the tenth election in a row, thanks to the dominance of special interests.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. FactCheck.org rates the Wolf Party’s claim that mutton can be made without harming sheep as “Mostly False”.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. The main issue this election is whether two more sheep should be allowed to immigrate.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. A government shutdown is narrowly averted when everyone agrees to what becomes known as the Mutton With A Side Of Grass Compromise; disappointed activists are urged to “keep their demands realistic”.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. They choose borscht. Election officials suspect foul play.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. They vote for free breadsticks. They go to the restaurant, which will only sell breadsticks at the usual price. The wolves say they voted for free breadsticks, and the choice of the populace must be obeyed. The sheep warns them that the breadsticks are getting cold and hard while they wait, and that if they don’t come to a decision soon then they are “sleepwalking into a disastrous hard breadstick” that will ruin their dinner. In an eleventh-hour vote, the wolves reject paying the restaurant’s price for breadsticks, and also reject leaving the restaurant without breadsticks. Eventually they all die of starvation.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. Talks between the Gray Wolf Party and the Timber Wolf Party break down over the issue of who gets the tastiest cuts of mutton. The Gray Wolf Party enters into a surprise “grand coalition” with the Sheep Party, and they agree to eat the second wolf.

05 May 13:31

This Thai Termite Spray Commercial is Epic Beyond Measure

by Geeks are Sexy

Seriously, nothing beats Thai commercials when it comes to storytelling. So funny.

The post This Thai Termite Spray Commercial is Epic Beyond Measure appeared first on Geeks are Sexy Technology News.

24 Apr 14:29

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Promise

by tech@thehiveworks.com
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

This is a commendable update of that episode of Coupling.



Click here to go see the bonus panel!

Hovertext:
I am prepared to licence this concept to Dolph Lundgren at no charge.


Today's News:
24 Apr 13:40

Bill Gates is committed to giving away his fortune — but he keeps getting richer

by Kelsey Piper
Bill Gates has pledged to give away his money, but he’s seen his wealth nearly double to $97 billion since 2010.

Gates is now worth $100 billion. Why is it so hard to give money away?

Last week, a bump in Microsoft’s stock prices pushed Bill Gates’s net worth above $100 billion. He remains the world’s second-richest person, behind Jeff Bezos. It’s a mind-boggling amount of money. What makes it more mind-boggling is that Gates says he’s working to give away nearly all of it.

Bill and Melinda Gates have given away more than $45 billion through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which primarily works to combat global poverty. Their work has saved millions of lives. At the same time, the Gateses themselves have just kept getting wealthier. (Gates’s fortune surpassed $100 billion once before, briefly in 1999 at the height of the dot-com boom. Adjusted for inflation, that’d be $150 billion today.)

It’s not just the Gates fortune, either.

In December, writing for Inside Philanthropy, David Callahan looked at the numbers and pointed out that across the board, the wealthiest people in the world are sitting on $4 trillion, and accumulating money much faster than they give it away.

“[Bill] Gates was worth $54 billion in 2010, the year the Giving Pledge debuted; he’s worth $97 billion today. [Warren] Buffett’s wealth has also nearly doubled, to $90 billion, despite annual transfers of Berkshire Hathaway stock to the Gates Foundation and the four foundations controlled by his three children,” Callahan wrote.

With some billionaires, there’s a simple explanation for why they don’t give away more money: They don’t really feel like it.

But that doesn’t seem like a fully satisfying explanation when it comes to Gates, Buffett, or other billionaires who’ve pledged to give away their wealth before they die. I want to speak up in their partial defense here: It’s actually shockingly challenging to effectively give away vast sums of money, especially at the rates billionaires would need to give to keep up with their recent gains on the stock market.

Philanthropy is harder than you think

It can strain credulity that it’s really that challenging to give away money. But when you look at the track record of many poorly planned, failed philanthropy projects, it gets clearer.

Last year, the data came out from a $575 million multi-year project to improve schools, spearheaded by more than $200 million from the Gates Foundation — and the expensive intervention didn’t improve student outcomes at all. Mark Zuckerberg spent $100 million to improve schools and saw some modest gains — but they were small and accompanied by outrage and local backlash. (My colleague Dylan Matthews has pleaded for philanthropists to stay out of education, where their track records are particularly disappointing.)

The charity evaluator GiveWell, which researches promising interventions, found that these failures aren’t the exception but the norm. “We think that charities can easily fail to have impact, even when they’re doing exactly what they say they are,” they write. “[M]any of the problems charities aim to address are extremely difficult problems that foundations, governments and experts have struggled with for decades. Many well-funded, well-executed, logical programs haven’t had the desired results.”

GiveWell recounts what went wrong with one intervention that didn’t live up to expectations: PlayPumps, a merry-go-round that was also supposed to pump water and which replaced standard pumps in some villages. “Children found playing on the PlayPumps exhausting and women ended up having to push the merry-go-round around themselves to pump water; the PlayPumps were more expensive, pumped less water, and were more challenging to maintain than the hand pumps they had replaced.”

A history of such disappointments can make donors understandably unsure where their money will actually do good. And, Callahan observes, billionaires are really leery of spending money in a sector they don’t understand and where they know many things don’t work.

I want to be clear here: Program failures are to be expected, even applauded. If a nonprofit is trying new things, which it should be, and conducting careful research to determine whether its programs are cost-effective or have unintended consequences, which it also should be, then sometimes it’ll find that a program failed. Trying new things, learning about them, and adjusting accordingly is the right way to make progress in a new domain.

But this also suggests that it’s going to be difficult to spend money usefully fast. It’s unwise to start a program at large scale, affecting hundreds of thousands of people, because it might not be effective — and you might even do harm if your program has unintended consequences.

One alternative is to validate your approach in small studies, scaling up only if those are a success. But many programs that work great in small studies still fail when you scale them. And you can fund many hundreds of promising pilot programs without spending even 1 percent of the $40 billion that Bill Gates has gained in net worth since 2010.

When the Gates Foundation has found an intervention that works and continues to work at scale, it’s poured in more money. Fighting malaria, for example, is a case where money continues to make a big difference even at scale, and the Gates Foundation has committed $2 billion to the fight.

But if foundations aren’t giving away money as fast as we’d like, that reflects, in part, that most causes aren’t like malaria: the fact that there’s an urgent need for $50,000, or $100,000, doesn’t mean that there’s a good opening to spend $2 billion.

Grants can go wrong — and require a lot of due diligence

Many people, hearing that, will wonder why organizations aren’t just a lot more generous with grants to the smaller charities everywhere that can definitely use the money, or why they don’t take advantage of the numerous funds, projects, and big ideas detailed in the Inside Philanthropy piece. Callahan writes that many people have tried to identify for billionaires some great opportunities that can absorb billions in funding, and that hasn’t gone anywhere. Why not?

I think a lot of what’s at work there is that foundations are understandably risk-averse, concerned with their own reputation, with avoiding disastrously bad grants, and with not getting scammed. Any foundation re-granting to smaller charities will worry a lot about the potential for a grant to backfire. One way that can happen, of course, is the program turning out to be a bad idea and hurting the people it was meant to help. Another way is the program being corrupt, a fraud, or worse.

Last fall, one case came to light that I expect every grant-reviewing officer has in the back of their mind as a worst-case scenario: A school in Liberia, funded by eager Western donors, allegedly ignored warning sign after warning sign as a senior staff member assaulted many of the young girls attending the school. Consistently applied accountability standards could have flagged what was happening at More Than Me, the Liberian organization. A thorough grant reviewer would at least have noticed that the teachers had no teaching experience and the administrators no administrative experience.

So while due diligence doesn’t eliminate the risks of funding something really bad, it definitely reduces them. But it’s expensive and time-intensive. It also requires significant back-and-forth with nonprofits, meaning it isn’t costless for grant applicants either.

To make many more grants, an organization like the Gates Foundation needs to scale up its staff, oversight, and procedures. The Gates Foundation as an existing institution has some huge advantages here compared to any billionaire who wants to do good; a smaller or newer institution would have to develop, from scratch perhaps, the organizational capacity to evaluate grants carefully.

There really are a lot of ways for money to do good in the world

Callahan observes that the difficulty of giving — while a very real challenge any megadonor will run into — can also slide into a justification for ignoring the challenge entirely. And that’s tragic, as philanthropy remains a way to do extraordinary good.

Looking at a charitable landscape where many programs are ineffective, others can’t absorb tens of millions in new funding, and some inflict harm might make billionaires (or the rest of us) decide that there’s nothing we can do. But that’s not true at all.

There are absolutely high-impact, well-established giving opportunities out there, and many of them can make use of hundreds of millions of dollars in new funding. Many global health interventions scale well and need more money than they are getting. Charities that work for animals are typically profoundly underfunded. And there are lots of important problems where we still need to fund more basic research.

The challenges are real, but they’re surmountable. Moving slowly on donating your billions makes sense, as long as caution doesn’t slide into inaction.


Do you ever struggle to figure out where to donate that will make the biggest impact? Or which kind of charities to support? Over five days, in five emails, we’ll walk you through research and frameworks that will help you decide how much and where to give, and other ways to do good. Sign up for Future Perfect’s new pop-up newsletter.

24 Apr 13:28

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Death

by tech@thehiveworks.com


Click here to go see the bonus panel!

Hovertext:
I await your emailed corrections.


Today's News:
04 Apr 14:17

Chug! Chug! Chug!

by Matthew Inman
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

This is the first actually-good Oatmeal cartoon in awhile.

04 Apr 12:21

Mark Zuckerberg Tells ‘GMA’ There Should Be “New Rules” For Political Ads

by Dade Hayes
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

I'm sure he's deeply concerned.

Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg told Good Morning America co-host George Stephanopoulos that he’s open to having Facebook regulated but there are limits to what the company can do to limit harmful political posts on its networks. “It’s not clear to me that we want a private company making that fundamental a decision about what is political speech and how should it be regulated,” he said during the three-minute segment shot at Facebook headquarters in Menlo Park…
28 Mar 15:44

Kamala Harris fundraising email

Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

I really hope she's only sending emails like this to people like me who are in her database of past donors to Obama.

"Hello, I'm not named Donald Trump" = losing strategy. Hillary Clinton tried it.

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27 Mar 12:09

The Five Wings Of The Republican Party

by Perry Bacon Jr.
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl

This seems about right to me.

When President Trump entered office, it wasn’t clear if he would consolidate control of the Republican Party — or even his own administration. We used to write a lot about various power centers in his administration, for example. But the president gradually forced out people who didn’t agree with him. Congressional Republicans buck the White House on occasion, but that’s more the exception that proves the rule. And special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe ending without the president being directly implicated, according to the attorney general, both removes any doubt that Trump will be running for president in 2020 and gives Republicans skeptical of Trump one less argument to make against him, thereby strengthening his influence within the GOP.

So describing Republicans as divided between pro-Trump and anti-Trump forces no longer makes much sense — the GOP is overwhelmingly a pro-Trump party. That said, just like Democrats, the broader Republican Party does have some distinct blocs and factions worth understanding. The parties don’t have the same kinds of differences. Democrats have deep divides over policy. In contrast, Republicans, at both the state and federal levels, are largely unified around an agenda of cutting spending for programs such as Medicaid that are targeted at low-income people, defending Americans’ ability to own and purchase guns, limiting abortion, and reducing regulations and taxes on businesses.

Instead, the most important dividing line in the Republican Party right now is probably this: How much should the GOP adhere to Trumpism?

We don’t have an official definition of Trumpism, but we’re describing it here in terms of four areas where Trump is somewhat distinct from previous Republican presidents: (i) Anti-institutionalism (his attacks on the Justice Department and the media, for example); (ii) Economic protectionism (his wariness about international trade agreements); (iii) Foreign policy (his hostility to NATO); and (iv) immigration and race (the border wall, the travel ban).

Vrtually all Republicans in elected office are generally aligned with the president and will support him in seeking a second term. But many Republican officials don’t fully (or really at all) embrace those four facets of Trumpism. That creates tensions between the president and people in his party that play out regularly in Washington.22 I’d put modern Republicans into five main groups (ordered roughly from most to least aligned with Trumpism):

The Trumpists

  • Often join Trump on immigration policy and in attacking institutions; largely avoid criticizing him publicly on foreign policy and trade even if they don’t fully embrace his views on those issues; strongly defend him in almost every instance.
  • Prominent examples: Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin, Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, Fox News, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, Rep. Mark Meadows of North Carolina, Rep. Devin Nunes of California, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia.

This is not the biggest wing, but it may be the most important. People in this bloc forcefully take on some of the president’s biggest critics (Jordan and Meadows leading the attacks against Trump-fixer-turned-antagonist Michael Cohen at a recent congressional hearing, for example.) They will often defend Trump’s behavior when other Republicans won’t (Perdue suggested Trump did not use the phrase “shithole countries” to describe nations like Haiti in a meeting last year, even as other attendees confirmed that he did.)

During the Mueller investigation, this bloc was particularly helpful to Trump. They not only cast the investigation that Mueller was conducting as unfair and biased against Trump, but conducted a counter-investigation, aggressively questioning the Department of Justice officials who had launched the probe about Trump and his campaign during 2016.

The Pro-Trumpers

I would put most elected Republicans on Capitol Hill and in governors’ mansions in this group. They do agree with some aspects of Trumpism — in particular, Trump tends to use more inflammatory rhetoric on immigration issues, but his policy stances aren’t all that far from GOP orthodoxy. But these figures aren’t attacking the media as “fake news” or particularly enthused about say, removing U.S. troops from Syria. They usually avoid criticizing Trump in public. And if they do, that criticism is usually expressed in very polite terms — and often not followed up by much action.

Trump critics often cast this group as “enabling” Trump or even handing full control of the GOP over to him. Many in this bloc do, in fact, have high Trump scores.23 And while Republicans in this bloc didn’t attack Mueller’s investigation as the Trumpists did, they largely took positions that helped the president amid the probe. McConnell never pushed for a vote on a measure that would have made it harder for Trump to fire the special counsel, and this week blocked a provision pushed by Democrats that would require Attorney General William Barr to publicly release Mueller’s full report.

But as the political scientist Matt Glassman has described, the relationship between these Republicans and Trump is best understood not as Trump forcing ideas down this bloc’s throats. Instead, Glassman argues that McConnell and other congressional Republicans are pushing a fairly traditional Republican agenda, like tax cuts, and Trump largely goes along with it. The unwritten contract between this bloc and Trump seems to be that they will not break with Trump in public (even when he is, say, bashing the late and revered-among-Republicans John McCain) as long as he does not stray too far from establishment Republican policies. Their mantra can be summed up by one word: “judges.” (However erratic and unpredictable Trump may be in personality and on some issues, he is appointing conservative judges who will be on the bench long after he leaves the White House.)

Trump-Skeptical Conservatives

  • Generally aligned with Trump, but tend to break with him in somewhat noisy ways and generally by casting the president as insufficiently conservative.
  • Prominent examples: Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

This is a fairly small bloc among elected Republicans. But in a closely divided Senate, Lee and Paul in particular really matter. Their opposition in 2017 to the party’s push to roll back parts of Obamacare — arguing the provisions written by congressional Republican leaders kept too much of the law in place — was a significant factor in the GOP never actually passing anything. Lee and Paul were two of only five Senate Republicans who earlier this month backed both the legislation to end the U.S. involvement in the Yemen civil war and the legislation to stop Trump’s declaration of a national emergency to build the border wall. Paul had the second-lowest Trump Score among Senate Republicans in 2017-2018, Lee the fourth-lowest. In the House, Amash backed the president’s position just 54 percent of the time in 2017-2018, putting him behind all but one Republican and also behind some House Democrats.

In all, this group, driven more by doctrine and ideology than the other blocs, is the clearest remainder in the GOP of what the tea party movement espoused.

Trump-Skeptical Moderates

Think of this group as the “very concerned” Republicans. They often verbally tsk-tsk about Trump, but then, say, vote for Brett Kavanaugh, irritating Democrats who want to see them marry their words with actions. This group is most important because they are likely to be the most forceful critics if, for example, Trump seems too chummy with Vladimir Putin. That occasional forcefulness makes this group different from the generally Pro-Trump bloc I described. And this strong criticism matters — Trump sometimes reverses himself in the face of it.

You might object to the term “moderate” here — Romney for example, is quite conservative on most policy issues. But being hostile to the media and at times to minorities is an important part of Trump’s political approach and increasingly that of the Republican Party’s. Being openly resistant to that drift in the party, like Romney, is a point of distinction between him and Republicans in the first two blocs.

Anti-Trumpers

This is the smallest bloc and it includes very few elected officials — illustrating how Trump has largely won over a Republican Party that was resistant to him basically up until the day he was elected president. Hogan, who just won reelection in 2018 in a fairly blue state, is hinting that he is considering a run against Trump. But he would be a long shot — and one reason is that he would have almost no support among Republican Party powerbrokers.


As long as Trump is in power, I don’t expect these blocs to feud much. They might differ on tactics or strategy in the run-up to the 2020 campaign. But if they want to win in 2020, all the blocs but the final, most anti-Trump one are probably better off aligning with one another and with Trump.

But if Trump loses reelection in 2020, these blocs are a useful guide to a post-Trump GOP. The old divides between the GOP establishment and the tea party or moderates and conservatives are now outdated ways of looking at the GOP. The former insurgents in the GOP now run the party — Trump is the president and one-time House Freedom Caucus member Mick Mulvaney is the president’s chief of staff. Many of the party’s remaining moderates lost in 2018 to Democratic opponents.

Instead, the new dividing lines in the party are likely to be about how various Republicans dealt with Trump and Trumpism. If Trump loses in 2020, I would expect some Republicans, particularly the Trumpists, to argue that many in the party were insufficiently loyal to Trump and Trumpism, dividing the GOP and making it harder for the president to win a second term. Other Republicans, particularly the Anti-Trumpers and the Trump-Skeptical Moderates, are likely to argue Republicans lost the presidency because the party didn’t try hard enough to either get a less polarizing 2020 nominee or push Trump to be less polarizing.



From ABC News:
Republicans divided on overturning Affordable Care Act
26 Mar 12:27

Opinion | Our Constitutional Emergency

Our Constitutional Emergency

As the House attempts to override President Trump’s first veto, we the people aren’t holding up our end of the bargain, either.

By Greg Weiner

Mr. Weiner is a political scientist and was a senior Senate aide to Bob Kerrey, Democrat of Nebraska.

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One of the most consistent themes of James Madison‘s writings is that the public always governs eventually in the United States.CreditPeter Stackpole/The LIFE Picture Collection, via Getty Images
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One of the most consistent themes of James Madison‘s writings is that the public always governs eventually in the United States.CreditCreditPeter Stackpole/The LIFE Picture Collection, via Getty Images

During the June 1788 convention at which Virginia ratified the Constitution, Patrick Henry, a critic of the proposed government, accused James Madison, its foremost defender, of failing to protect against corrupt or lawless politicians. “Is there no virtue among us?” Madison replied. “If there be not, we are in a wretched situation. No theoretical checks — no form of government can render us secure.”

That exchange is worth recalling as the House of Representatives prepares for a vote scheduled for Tuesday on whether to override President Trump’s veto of a congressional resolution to nullify the national emergency he declared to build a border wall. The House is almost certain to fail to muster the two-thirds majority required of both legislative chambers to override a presidential veto. It seems likely that the Senate, for its part, will not even do its constitutional duty and try. Republicans, especially Republican senators, are being justifiably excoriated for failing to defend congressional authority.

But blaming them alone misdiagnoses the constitutional problem. Congress’s impotence indicates an appalling failure of constitutional awareness and education in the United States. The Republican base — like the Democratic base during President Barack Obama’s tenure — is demanding, and getting, a constitution of expediency rather than of law.

In 1788, Patrick Henry, a critic of the proposed government, accused James Madison, its foremost defender, of failing to protect against corrupt or lawless politicians.CreditNew York Public Library/Smith Collection — Gado, via Getty Images
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In 1788, Patrick Henry, a critic of the proposed government, accused James Madison, its foremost defender, of failing to protect against corrupt or lawless politicians.CreditNew York Public Library/Smith Collection — Gado, via Getty Images

As many observers have noted, the Republican senators who criticized the emergency declaration and then voted to uphold it — Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina foremost among them — all face re-election in 2020. Mr. Trump is popular in their states, and their constituents are evidently more concerned with building a border wall than with the constitutional niceties according to which it is funded. These senators’ failure to “refine and enlarge the public views,” in Madison’s phrase, is a dereliction of their duty under Article I of the Constitution. But the root problem is the constitutional views that elected officials are supposed to refine.

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One Republican senator who voted against the emergency declaration, Roy Blunt of Missouri, was disinvited from a political event in his state by a local party official who demanded of him, “Why could you not support my president in the emergency declaration?” So long as the public does not care whether Congress protects its institutional turf — or, worse, is hostile to it doing so — the constitutional architecture cannot stand.

Madison understood this. One of the most consistent themes of his writings is that the public always governs eventually in the United States. “In republican Government the majority however composed, ultimately give the law,” he wrote before the constitutional convention. Alexander Hamilton, too, explained that liberty in the United States “must altogether depend on public opinion, and on the general spirit of the people and of the government.”

The constitutional imperative is to slow down policymaking so that passion can dissipate and reason can take hold. That requires civic virtues that constitutional education must teach. They involve not merely knowledge but ultimately temperament. The foremost is patience: Constitutional mechanisms work slowly by design. Another essential virtue is public-spiritedness: In a sprawling republic, those with strong views must recognize that they share the political community with fellow citizens whose competing views are equally intense. Both patience and public spirit entail caring not just what happens, but also how it happens.

If, by contrast, civic education focuses solely on outcomes at the expense of process, it will produce a politically entitled people immune to these virtues or to any civic quality other than demanding what you want when you want it. Yet this is substantially how civic education — which occurs in schools but also in the public square, when the news media reports on issues and when public figures discuss them — treats the constitutional order.

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In schools, civic education tends to accord outsize importance to the Bill of Rights at the expense of the more complex topics of separation of powers, federalism and other pillars of the constitutional edifice. Hamilton had opposed a Bill of Rights in part because he thought these mechanisms safeguarded rights better than protections inscribed on paper could. Journalists and politicians equally obsess over winners and losers. The public hears whose ox is being gored, but too rarely the importance of the constitutional process by which the goring occurs.

A Madisonian people, by contrast, will care about constitutional integrity in addition to political outcomes. This is for constitutional reasons but also for selfish ones: The power whose use one celebrates today will be wielded by a leader with whom one disagrees tomorrow, a lesson Democrats who endorsed Mr. Obama’s unilateral executive orders are now learning. Such citizens will also understand that they occupy the country along with more than 325 million fellow citizens whose views must be accommodated.

Crucially, they will not tolerate members of Congress who surrender legislative authority, even for results to some voters’ momentary liking, because they will prioritize enduring constitutionalism over transient policies. They will realize, too, that maintaining legislative authority, which is more immediately responsive to local concerns, serves their own interests as well.

Finally, some group among a Madisonian people will have the foresight to step off the cynical and anti-constitutional carousel according to which President George W. Bush did it so Mr. Obama could do it so Mr. Trump might as well, too.

None of this excuses members of Congress from their duties, which sometimes include withstanding public opinion. Even the Democratic justification for an override vote sure to fail is, as the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, put it, to create a record so the issue can be resolved by the courts.

To her credit, Ms. Pelosi did say that “we are Article I, the first branch of government.” But she was less reticent about executive power when Mr. Obama acted unilaterally on immigration. In both cases, the House should have defended its constitutional turf. It is no solution — on the contrary, it presents its own constitutional problems — for one party to ask the courts to provide the institutional protection the whole House declined to provide itself.

As for the Senate, one purpose of its members’ six-year terms is to enable what Madison called “great firmness” in resisting public whims and defending constitutional principles. So much for that. Every legislator is accountable for how he or she votes on the emergency declaration, but Madison expected those immediately facing re-election to capitulate more easily to public opinion. There are worse political sins. Harsher criticism should be reserved for senators who caved without facing immediate electoral consequences.

But their constituents who demanded this constitutional surrender — especially those who profess fidelity to the Constitution as the bedrock of their politics — deserve the sternest rebuke. It is an axiom of republican politics that everyone incurs criticism sooner or later, except the people. Yet if the people care solely about expediency at the expense of law, we are in a “wretched situation” from which the Constitution will not rescue us.

25 Mar 12:27

‘Star Trek’ Showrunner: “I Almost Cried” During Patrick Stewart’s New Picard Script Reading

by Geoff Boucher
The Paleyfest panel for Star Trek: Discovery was in its final minutes when showrunner Alex Kurtzman offered a vague yet tantalizing tidbit about the still-untitled Picard series that will soon bring Patrick Stewart back to the Starfleet universe in his iconic Star Trek: The Next Generation role. Accompanied by eight cast members from the Discovery as well as fellow executive producer Heather Kadin, Kurtzman shared plenty about that flagship series on CBS All-Access…
24 Mar 00:57

Opinion | Palestinian Lives Don’t Matter*

Palestinian Lives Don’t Matter*

*Unless Israel is to blame.

Bret Stephens

By Bret Stephens

Opinion Columnist

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Hajar Harb, a Palestinian journalist, has been arrested by Hamas for publishing a report critical of the health ministry.CreditAdel Hana/Associated Press
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Hajar Harb, a Palestinian journalist, has been arrested by Hamas for publishing a report critical of the health ministry.CreditCreditAdel Hana/Associated Press

The people of the Gaza Strip are protesting again, and soldiers are shooting again, and civilians are being victimized again. Only this time you may have missed the story, because these protests barely rated a buried paragraph in most Western news accounts.

That’s odd: Some media outlets are prepared to devote months of journalistic effort in order to trace the trajectory of a single bullet that accidentally kills a Palestinian — provided the bullet is Israeli.

The difference this time is that the shots are being fired by Hamas, the militant Islamist group that has ruled Gaza since 2007, when it usurped power from its rivals in the Fatah movement in a quick and dirty civil war. Since then, no genuine elections have been held, and no dissent brooked.

The current round of demonstrations, which began last week, comes in reaction to years of Hamas’s economic mismanagement, price hikes and recent tax increases. This is not for lack of funds on Hamas’s part: Since 2012, the group has taken in over a billion dollars from Qatar alone to pay the costs of fuel, humanitarian aid and civil-servant salaries.

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Where that money goes is another question. In 2014, The Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas had spent some $90 million building attack tunnels into Israel, at an average cost of nearly $3 million a tunnel. The material devoted to each tunnel, the Journal reported, was “enough to build 86 homes, seven mosques, six schools or 19 medical clinics.” Three wars against Israel, each started by Hamas, have also taken their toll in lives, injuries, infrastructure and isolation.

All this has meant suffering and deprivation for the people of Gaza, irrespective of anything Israel does. In February, Amnesty International reported that the Palestinian journalist Hajar Harb had been tried in absentia by Hamas for publishing a report on al-Araby TV detailing alleged corruption in the Ministry of Health. Hamas officials have also reportedly enriched themselves by controlling the underground trade in goods, from poultry to furniture to cars, between the Strip and Egypt.

And so Gazans are making their despair known. Hundreds took to the streets last week, only to be shot at, clubbed and arrested by Hamas security forces.

“The crackdown on freedom of expression and the use of torture in Gaza has reached alarming new levels,” noted Saleh Higazi of Amnesty. Incidents include the arrest of human-rights activists, the beating and jailing of more than 15 local journalists, and violent attacks on peaceful demonstrators “using sound grenades, batons, pepper spray, live ammunition and physical assaults.”

Surprised? You shouldn’t be. Hamas bills itself as a “resistance” movement, and such movements, from the Irish Republican Army to the Viet Cong to Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF, tend to behave in strikingly similar ways: fanatical, thuggish, militaristic, hypocritical and corrupt.

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To such groups, liberation rarely means more than the replacement of some form of foreign occupation with local despotism. They avow democracy but never hold a truly fair election. They create secret police, parallel security services, politburos, inner- and outer-party structures. They make war on their neighbors to distract from their inevitable failure to create prosperity at home. Their leaders preach struggle and martyrdom while living lavishly.

Nor should you be surprised by the scantiness of Western coverage: It would complicate a convenient narrative of the Israel-Palestinian conflict that holds that the former isn’t just the principal oppressor, but the only one. That feeds into the larger progressive fiction that the great crimes of the post-World War II world are the ones the West perpetrated on the rest of the world. In fact, far worse were the crimes of non-Westerners — Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, Saddam Hussein, Fidel Castro, Idi Amin, Nicolás Maduro — perpetrated against their own people.

The same goes for the Palestinians. More have died in Syria in the last decade, mainly on account of the depredations of the ostensibly pro-Palestinian regime of Bashar al-Assad, than have been killed by Israel. And Palestinians continue to be the victims of leaders who see no reason to subject themselves to regular elections, or financial audits, or criminal investigations, or any other mechanism of political or moral accountability.

That lack of accountability is chiefly a Palestinian failure. But it’s abetted by Western journalism that, with some honorable exceptions, for too long has been depressingly incurious about any form of Palestinian suffering for which Israel cannot be held responsible. That is sometimes a function of ideological bias, but it is also a failure of basic reporting.

Israelis and their friends abroad often complain about slanted coverage that seems to find fault in everything they do, while finding excuses in everything their adversaries do. If the protests in Gaza demonstrate anything, it’s that Palestinians hardly benefit from the coverage, either.

Palestinian lives and livelihoods should matter despite who harms them. A world that shrugs at Hamas’s abuse of its own people merely licenses the abuse to continue, unchecked.