Joel Thrasymachus Dahl
Shared posts
WGA Deputizes Managers And Lawyers To “Fill The Gap” If Agents Are Fired En Masse
Joel Thrasymachus DahlSmart move, but they should have restricted it to attorneys. There are a LOT of "managers" who are really just doing agent work (or allegedly doing agent work), and many who (illegally, but there's no enforcement) literally wear both a manager hat and an agent hat.
‘Stranger Things’ Season 3 Trailer Goes Full 1985 With Mötley Crüe & Summer Fun
Google Trends Maps
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl:applause: on the bigfoot/pence one. Also, why are Kentucky and West VA googling shark attacks?
‘The Wire’ Creator David Simon Rips “Greedhead” Agencies Over Packaging, Urges Lawsuit Against ATA
Letterlocking: the long-lost art of using paper-folding to foil snoops
"Letterlocking" is a term coined by MIT Libraries conservator Jana Dambrogio after she discovered a trove of letters while spelunking in the conservation lab of the Vatican Secret Archives; the letters had been ingeniously folded and sealed so that they couldn't be opened and re-closed without revealing that they had been read. Some even contained "booby traps" to catch the unwary.
Dambroglio and her colleagues have since been painstaking reconstructing these long-lost letterlocking techniques (which they hypothesize led to the development of the modern envelope), and documenting their findings in an online Letterlocking dictionary that documents the techniques, tools, and jargon of their discipline.
Letterlocking got a huge boost in 2012 when Yale's Rebekah Ahrendt discovered 600 unopened 17th century letters in at the Hague post-office; the letters were in a larger collection of undeliverable post, held against a date that someone came forward to claim them. Prior to the trove's discovery, letterlocking had been primarily studied through reconstruction, using fold-marks, dirt, and traces of seals on multiple documents to try to recover the lost techniques.
Dambroglio and a colleague named Daniel Starza Smith are self-described letterlocking "evangelists," having distributed 10,000+ replica letterlocked-letters in the hopes of reviving the practice.
Both researchers are adamant, however, that there is still so much left to uncover. Many questions remain: How, for instance, did John Donne and Queen Elizabeth I’s spymaster know the same letterlocking techniques? Were they passed down from a parent or from a colleague? Did certain locks imply something about the content of the letter?
There is evidence that suggests letterlocking might have been seen as a reflection of personality and taste. Smith points to Donne as a particularly telling example. “He’s using five different letterlocking styles, and one of them—despite the fact that we’ve looked at nearly a million letters, a quarter of a million in detail—we’ve never seen anyone else use it,” Smith says. “So we’ve got this guy who’s known as the most inventive and witty poet of his generation, and he’s doing one of the most inventive and witty and brilliant letterlocking methods you could imagine. That is the kind of evidence you can use to say ‘Ah, so, you can actually see something of people’s personalities in the way they fold letters.’”
Before Envelopes, People Protected Messages With Letterlocking [Abigail Cain/Atlas Obscura]
(via Bruce Schneier)
I’ve Seen Civil War Destroy the Democrats Before. We Can’t Let it Happen Again.

Stuart E. Eizenstat was chief White House domestic policy adviser to President Jimmy Carter and has served in Democratic administrations from Johnson to Clinton and Obama. He is the author of President Carter: The White House Years, the critically acclaimed account of the Carter administration.
I’ve lived through a Democratic Civil War before. In fact, I’ve been in the middle of two of them. The first was in 1968, when I was the research director for Vice President Hubert Humphrey’s presidential campaign. The second was in 1980, when I was Jimmy Carter’s policy director.
Both times, I watched pressure from the party’s liberal wing tear the party apart and bring down a Democratic presidential candidate. Both times, the Republicans took the White House. Both times, liberal dreams were shattered.
Story Continued Below
Today, I fear it could all be happening again.
As President Donald Trump moved the Republican Party sharply to the populist right, early entrants to the Democratic Party presidential contest have veered sharply to the left, along with several energetic new Democratic members of the House. The left’s new avant-garde has properly identified the need to confront serious national challenges, from rising income inequality and inadequate health care coverage to climate change.
But successfully dealing with these problems demands pragmatic solutions that can gain support from a majority of Americans and do not play into Trump’s false narrative that Democrats are socialists. Speaking from experience, by demanding the moon, their proposals will crash on the launching pad and lead to nowhere good.
In 1968, I smelled the stink bombs that anti-war protesters tossed into the lobby of Humphrey’s convention headquarters. He forlornly watched from the window of his hotel suite as the Chicago police cracked down on the demonstrators with tear gas and clubs. Humphrey’s challenger from the left, Senator Eugene McCarthy, who had castigated Humphrey for the Johnson administration’s handling of Vietnam, didn’t get the nomination that year. But McCarthy failed to reconcile with his fellow Minnesotan and led his supporters back into the fold only after it was too late. Richard Nixon exploited the divisions in the party and the country and was elected by the thinnest of margins in November. His election led to an extension of the war Humphrey would have ended; during the next four years 21,000 more American soldiers were killed.
In 1980, the Democratic chasm opened again. I had been Jimmy Carter’s policy director during his 1976 campaign and went on to serve as his domestic policy adviser in the White House. A former Georgia governor running as a moderate in the Democratic primaries, Carter nevertheless had decidedly progressive accomplishments as president. I worked under Carter’s leadership to develop all the major ethics legislation still in place, requiring disclosure of assets and potential conflicts of interest for senior officials coming into office, restricting gifts while in office and curbing lobbying when leaving, and creating the office of special counsel to investigate wrongdoing by high officials, among many other measures. Carter encouraged affirmative action and directed more government contracts to minority companies. He increased the minimum wage by the largest amount in a decade, doubled the number of public jobs and expanded youth employment programs. He reformed and greatly expanded funding for food stamps and education with a new Department of Education, saved New York City and Chrysler from bankruptcy, and appointed more women and minorities to senior positions and judgeships than all his predecessors combined.
Carter showed what moderates can accomplish. But, throughout his four years in office, Carter never got full credit for this record. He was criticized by women’s and civil rights groups, social welfare advocates and the party’s union leaders for not doing enough. Consumer groups failed to mobilize for him even though he appointed many of their leaders to regulate big business. The “greenest” president in American history got little credit from environmentalists even as he doubled the size of the national park system, made conservation a centerpiece of his energy policy and championed solar energy, even installing a solar panel on the White House roof.
But the big sticking point for the liberal wing of the party was health care. To obtain support from liberal labor unions in the primaries in 1976, Carter agreed to broad principles for national health insurance, but in office refused to accept Senator Ted Kennedy’s single-payer, government-run bill at a time of raging inflation. Over many days of negotiations I had with the senator in his Capitol office, we came close to agreeing on a bill that would have substituted a government-run program for a privately managed program and full coverage phased in over many years. But in the end, Kennedy bowed to labor’s demands and refused to back Carter’s bill, which looks much like Obamacare today: employer-mandated insurance, health care for children, catastrophic coverage for major illnesses and a major expansion of Medicaid. By asking for too much, health care reform stalled for decades.
In 1980, Kennedy decided to challenge Carter from the left. The senator’s liberal supporters gummed-up the 1980 convention with more than 50 minority floor amendments to the party’s platform, demanding more and more spending and full-blown national health insurance. Kennedy lost, but the damage was done. His challenge irrevocably split the party. When finally defeated, the senator stole the soul of the convention with a dramatic speech promising that “The dream will never die.” He refused the ritual joint hand clasp with the renominated president, offering only a tortured long-distance handshake, and backed away from full participation in the campaign against Ronald Reagan, who coasted to victory in November.
It is, of course, impossible to know how much the liberal split affected the general election results. The bad luck of having record inflation (which Carter’s courageous appointment of Paul Volcker to head the Federal Reserve ended, but too late for his reelection), long gasoline lines from the shutdown of oil production during the Iranian revolution, and especially the Iran hostage crisis were also key factors in his defeat. But I believe that party infighting also played a significant role.
And Kennedy himself came to regret his inflexibility. Years later, as the senator continued his futile efforts to reform heath care, he wistfully said: “Where’s the Carter bill now that we really need it?”
Will the liberal wing this time around realize the damage a similar split will do to Democratic chances of regaining the White House? Maximalist ideology is a prescription for division and defeat.
So, what should the party rally around? While Medicare for All may be a useful campaign slogan to focus the Democrats’ priority of reforming our inefficient and expensive health care system, a totally government-run program is not a solution; efforts to obtain it would do more to undermine Obama’s signature Affordable Care Act than the Republicans have done. Democrats should focus on strengthening Obamacare by making its private exchanges function more efficiently, by lowering drug prices, expanding Medicaid for needy Americans in all states and allowing earlier eligibility for Medicare.
Income inequality cannot simply be wiped away by wealth taxes, confiscatory tax rates for corporations and breaking up large banks. The country needs a fair tax system (Carter called our tax system then, as it is now, “a disgrace to the human race”) in which the middle class gets a larger share of the cuts, the super-wealthy pay a fairer share and companies cannot wriggle through loopholes and pay nothing. Workers also need a flexible education and apprenticeship system for non-college bound students, similar to those in Germany and Switzerland, to prepare them for the 21st-century 5G economy.
As chief U.S. negotiator in the Clinton administration for the Kyoto Protocols to reduce greenhouse gases, I am painfully aware the clock is ticking on the time we must act to save our planet from catastrophic damage. But the answer to climate change is not a Green New Deal that would have the federal government prescribe all of our power needs through renewable, zero-emission sources, retrofitting every building, removing all greenhouse gases from transportation and guaranteeing a job to every American. Pragmatic programs should use market-based incentives, including a carbon tax, which would be made politically palatable by recycling part of the revenue into lower taxes for the middle class and into renewable energy programs.
A two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians is essential, but it will not be achieved by blaming Israel alone for the impasse or failing to back legislation that builds on the 1977 law signed by Carter that bars U.S. companies from complying with boycotts of Israel, as many Democratic presidential hopefuls have done, or worse, defending those who single out American Jews for dual loyalty for supporting a strong U.S.-Israel relationship.
Several candidates have revived an even more provocative and politically undeliverable proposal for taxpayers to pay reparations to African-Americans for their ancestors’ slavery, and the discrimination they have since endured. I have extensive experience in trying to rectify another historic injustice: for victims of the Holocaust. As the chief negotiator for both the U.S. government in several administrations and for the Jewish Claims Conference, I have negotiated tens of billions of dollars of compensation for Holocaust victims from Swiss and French banks, German and Austrian slave labor companies, European insurance companies, and for Nazi-looted property and art. These were arduous negotiations over many years and continue to this day. They were also possible because they are limited in scope: Generally, we could exact payments only for living survivors or in some cases their immediate heirs. Compensation for looted property, such as art and bank accounts, was paid only when it could be traced and identified. No one could devise a workable or politically palatable solution to identify and pay tens of millions of African-Americans for what Abraham Lincoln called “the bondsman’s 250 years of unrequited toil.”
Americans of color still face systemic discrimination in education, employment and housing. And millions of Americans white, black and brown, still have no health care coverage, which virtually every other industrial democracy in the world provides to all of their citizens. It would be better to focus on policies that can gain broad public support: Expand health care under the framework of Obamacare, encourage more investment in low-income neighborhoods, endorse affirmative action based on socioeconomic need, offer more government contracts to minority companies, repair the shredded social safety net, increase funding of Head Start for poor children and elementary and secondary education in poverty-stricken districts, and broaden Pell Grants to help make college affordable.
It is a misreading of last November’s midterm elections to believe the House was flipped to Democratic control by the election of a few arch-liberals, most of whom displaced centrist Democrats. The greatest gains were made by moderate Democrats capturing Republican districts. A successful Democratic presidential candidate might take a leaf from Carter’s playbook, even more successfully accomplished by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, to appeal to both sides of the party’s coalition to attract and hold moderate Americans tired of partisanship—Americans who want the highest ethical standards in the White House, who will respect and strengthen the institutions that represent our values—from the FBI to the press to our public schools. A successful candidate will eschew identity politics and want to unite Americans rather than divide the country into warring tribes, will strengthen, not weaken, our worldwide network of alliances, and will recognize there is a big country with its own problems that must be addressed between the two coasts.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a liberal pragmatist and a political master at herding cats, has readied programs that can lay the foundation for a presidential candidate who can articulate a clear and acceptable message on health care, economic equality and a positive role for government that has wide appeal in the country, while simultaneously capturing the energy of the newcomers of the liberal left—if the liberal left will only listen. The Democrats must iron out their differences and present a united front against Trump, who will have the advantages of incumbency, a positive economy and the support of a united Republican Party. If these progressives keep their eye on winning in 2020, they can be part of a broad coalition to shape their politics into laws which tackle the problems they have identified—which is why they took up arms and won their way to Washington in the first place. Otherwise, we could witness another divided Democratic Party leading to another Republican victory. And the progressive left will have accomplished nothing.
Felicity Huffman Arrested In Elite College Bribe Scheme; Lori Loughlin, Hollywood Investor Bill McGlashan & Others Charged – Update
Joel Thrasymachus DahlWhen your wife is the math teacher for one of the daughters in question . . . you know you live in LA County.
Yo: The Guerrilla Parking Signs In Angelino Heights Were Removed, But The Creator Hopes To Inspire Others
Don't call Derek Boonstra a hero. The Angelino Heights / Echo Park resident just saw a chance to improve the sad state of parking in his neighborhood — and he knows how to use Photoshop.
A few weeks ago, the 36-year-old posted his own custom parking sign on West Kensington Road near Laveta Terrace. It read: "YO: Please maximize parking. Park 2-3 feet from other vehicles; park close to the ends of curbs."
Parking woes aren't unique to his neighborhood, but Boonstra said he and other community members have been voicing their concerns about the density problem for a while now, which gets particularly bad during Dodger home stands. That included reaching out to Los Angeles City Councilman Mitch O'Farrell's office to recommend diagonal parking or permits as possible solutions, but that didn't really go anywhere.
Boonstra, who's lived in the neighborhood for 13 years, said it was the kind of idea a lot of Angelenos have probably had before. "I just happened to follow through on it first," he said.
He posted a version of his design on his neighborhood Nextdoor page "to get buy-in from my neighbors and see if they had any objections." After constructive feedback and no objections, he put his plan into action, ordering his message and placing it on a pole under the city's parking sign.
It has the basic design scheme of the standard municipal parking signage, but was done in black (Boonstra said red would have made it seem more "angry and official").
"Anyone who sees that hopefully understands that it's not an official city sign," he said. "I wanted it to be something that would clearly be kind of a joke, but also communicate an idea that was helpful, theoretically, in a non-aggressive way."
After about three weeks, Boonstra posted two more signs on nearby streets, where they were soon shared on social media. Someone posted a photo of one of the signs in a community Facebook group, so Boonstra outed himself as the sign maker in a comment. He also shared the design and the website he used to have them made, empowering his neighbors to create their own.
And while there's no scientific way to know if the signs made a difference, Boonstra said he did notice some instances of more considerate parking on the curb across his street.
"It's reasonable to park four cars there, but a couple of times ... while I had the one sign up, there were five cars parked there," he said.
But the resulting local media attention was "the beginning of the end," Boonstra explained. After a write-up in Los Angeles Magazine, local TV news picked up the story, and Boonstra suspects that's what alerted the city to the signs, which were taken down Friday morning.
"I find it all kind of absurd," he said, but clarified that he wasn't angry at the city for removing his signs.
"I kind of hoped... if they felt the need to take them down, that they would still respect that it came from a place of just trying to contribute to a solution of some kind," he said.
The Los Angeles Department of Transportation enforces parking in the city, and while they did not confirm to LAist that their workers removed the signs, they did send us a section of city code, which states: "The Department may, without notice, remove every unofficial sign, signal or device placed, maintained or displayed upon any City street contrary to the provisions of the Vehicle Code or of this chapter."
Councilman O'Farrell's office did not respond to a request for comment regarding the signs and parking problems in the neighborhood.
Boonstra said he's not planning to post his custom signs again ("don't want to poke the bear too much"), but he hopes the tools and design he made publicly available could inspire others to make their neighborhoods parking positive.
"It'd be cool if someday I'm driving around the the city and see somebody else did their own thing with it," he said.
WGA Airs More Complaints From Writers About Agents’ “Conflicts Of Interest”
Joel Thrasymachus DahlNone of this surprises me, but still . . . ick.
A hot dog is a taco. A steak is a salad. A Pop-Tart is a calzone. Let the Cube Rule explain.
A hot dog is a taco. A steak is a salad. A Pop-Tart is a calzone. Let the Cube Rule explain.
Since the beginning of time, philosophers have debated the questions that define us as humans: Where did our universe come from? What is the meaning of life? Is a hot dog a sandwich?
We’re still trying to answer the first two, but we can definitively answer the third question.
A hot dog is not a sandwich.
A hot dog is a taco.
Let me explain.
Whether a hot dog is a sandwich is a problem that has long divided people who like to get into meaningless arguments on the Internet. Some say that a sandwich is anything in between bread, which would make a hot dog a sandwich. But some say bread that is not in two distinct slices is different — and that tubular meat within it deserves its own distinct category. The National Hot Dog and Sausage Council does not call a hot dog a sandwich: “Limiting the hot dog’s significance by saying it’s ‘just a sandwich’ is like calling the Dalai Lama ‘just a guy,’ ” says its website. But the Merriam-Webster dictionary disagrees. New York and California tax law say a hot dog is a sandwich. And Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, when asked by comedian Stephen Colbert, issued this ruling:
Ginsburg: You’re asking me? Well, you tell me what a sandwich is, and then I’ll tell you if a hot dog is a sandwich.
Colbert: A sandwich is two pieces of bread with almost any type of filling in between, as long as it’s not more bread.
Ginsburg: You say two pieces of bread. Does that include a roll that’s cut open but still not completely?
Colbert: That’s the crux. You’ve gotten [it] immediately. See, this is why you’re on the Supreme Court. That gets immediately to the question: Does the roll need to be separated into two parts? Because a sub sandwich — a sub is not split, and yet it is a sandwich.
Ginsburg: Yes.
Colbert: So then a hot dog is a sandwich?
Ginsburg: On your definition, yes, it is.
I am sorry to report that this decision is incorrect. Everyone who has been approaching the hot dog vs. sandwich problem has been looking at it all wrong. It is not a question about bread and the unique nature of cylindrical beef. It is a geometry problem.
[Sure, millennials might be killing canned tuna. But not because they hate can openers.]
Enter the Cube Rule, a simple way to categorize What Foods Are and What Foods Aren’t. According to the Cube Rule, there are eight categories of food, each defined by the placement of starch. Use a cube as your guideline for where the bread or starch goes, and it will determine what a food truly is — and whether it is a sandwich. Starch only on the bottom? It’s a toast. Starch on the top and bottom that is not connected is, obviously, a sandwich. But starch on the bottom and two opposing sides is a taco. Therefore, a hot dog is a taco. And, to correct RBG, a sub is also a taco. Rolled starch on the top, bottom and two opposing sides is, according to the Cube Rule, maki roll sushi. Therefore, an enchilada is sushi. Starch on every side except the top, like a quiche, is a bread bowl. Any food fully enclosed in starch is a calzone. A corn dog is a calzone. A Pop-Tart is a calzone. A bean pupusa is a calzone.
The handy diagram below, created by Twitter user @Phosphatide, makes it easy to understand the Cube Rule and issue decrees on other dishes. He drew it after the hot dog debate came up on a video game stream he was watching, and another user outlined the basis of the Cube Rule. His name is Brandon, but the 25-year-old student declined to give his last name because he didn’t want to be seen as taking credit for the theory, even though the diagram and many of the clarifications and rulings on particular food items are his.
“I like the idea of having clarity in how we talk about food,” Brandon told The Post. “I would be very amused to see the Cube Rule start taking off.”
So what about starches that don’t have “sides,” like spaghetti? Simple answer: All starches that do not hold a defined shape, or foods that do not contain starches, are salads. Poutine is a salad. Fried rice is a salad. Mashed potatoes are a salad. A steak is a salad, albeit one with only one ingredient. Any starches or non-starches suspended in liquids are soups, which are just wet salads. A vanilla soy latte is technically, according to the Cube Rule, a three-bean soup. And while a loaf of bread, the building block of this formula, might be a six-sided starch, it is not a calzone: it is merely an uncut toast. This applies to any breads that do not have a filling. A plain doughnut is a toast, but a jelly doughnut is a calzone. A dinner roll is a toast.
As the illustrator of the Cube Rule, Brandon is also its arbiter of disputes. Ask him about any food, and he will issue a ruling.
Let’s start with an easy one: pizza. “It’s just a toast,” he says. “It’s a large piece of bread.” A cherry pie is a bread bowl if it has an open top, but it’s a calzone if it has a closed top.
For the latter, “If you were to serve it as a slice, it would be a taco, because it has three sides, technically,” Brandon said. “That’s what brought this whole thing together as mostly a joke. That was my favorite example.”
[Pizza’s Turkish cousin is covered in butter, and its U.S. popularity is bubbling up]
A burrito is a trickier food to consider. “That would be a topic of debate — it’s created with a single tortilla roll, by nature it feels like more of a four-sided object,” he said. “I would be willing to consider it as a calzone, as well.” Interestingly, the sandwich chain Panera tried to argue in Massachusetts court that a burrito is a sandwich — they felt that the addition of a Qdoba to a mall shopping court violated a contract that said they were to be the only sandwich chain in the space — but the judge disagreed, ruling the burrito not a sandwich in 2006. Nevertheless, the USDA’s Food Standards and Labeling Policy Book describes a burrito as “a Mexican style sandwich-like product.” Wrong.
A piece of fried chicken, if it has a nice, crunchy breading on it, would technically be a calzone. A shepherd’s pie or a chicken pot pie, with crust only at the top, is another difficult categorization. “By the nature of the starch location, I would also rule them as toasts with the ‘jam side down,’ ” Brandon said.
After Brandon posted his illustration, thousands of people chimed in with other applications of the Cube Rule. Nigiri sushi, with the starch at the bottom, is a type of toast, one user pointed out. A Twinkie is a calzone, and a Swiss Roll is sushi. Pigs in a blanket are sushi. Some posited that a multi-decker sandwich is an additional category — a cake — which makes lasagna a meat-and-cheese cake.
How seriously you decide to take any of this is up to you. But it is very amusing to look at, say, a piece of Gushers candy and declare it a calzone or to call a meatloaf a salad. Because, yes, for the record: It is a salad of meat and vegetables and bread crumbs that has been cooked. Unless you make it an open-faced meatloaf sandwich. Then, it’s actually a toast.
Hipster whines at tech mag for using his pic to imply hipsters look the same, discovers pic was of an entirely different hipster
Normally a headline like "The hipster effect: Why anti-conformists always end up looking the same" would elicit much rolling of eyes here at Vulture Towers.
However, it becomes more intriguing when one learns that the hypothesis described in the article was tested by a series of hilarious post-publication events that then further bolstered the paper's findings.
At the end of February, MIT Technology Review emitted a pithy rundown of a 34-page research paper from maths-modelling boffins at Brandeis University in the US; the paper essentially posited that in a bid to make that all-important "countercultural statement", hipsters can end up looking alike. For groovy models of how random acts by hipsters "undergo a phase transition into a synchronized state" – along with some knotty network equations – see here [PDF].
Accompanying the article was an edited stock image of a generic millennial chap in plaid shirt and standard-issue beanie, or "trendy winter attire", as Getty put it.
The MIT journal's editor-in-chief, Gideon Lichfield, took to Twitter to tell a "cautionary tale" about what followed the article going live:
"We promptly got a furious email from a man who said he was the guy in the photo that ran with the story. He accused us of slandering him, presumably by implying he was a hipster, and of using the pic without his permission. (He wasn't too complimentary about the story, either.)"
Oh crap, is "generic millennial chap" libel? The Register can't afford that hitting the courts.
Lichfield continued:
Now, as far as I know, calling someone a hipster isn’t slander, no matter how much they may hate it. Still, we would never use a picture without the proper license or model release. It was a stock photo from Getty Images. So we checked the license. https://t.co/uFPXXNlEid
— Gideon Lichfield (@glichfield) March 5, 2019
He said the licence stipulated that if the image was used "in connection with a subject that would be unflattering or unduly controversial to a reasonable person (for example, sexually transmitted diseases)", it had to be made clear that the person was a model.
Lichfield pointed out that he didn't think calling someone a hipster was "unflattering or unduly controversial" but contacted Getty to be safe.
The stock photo giant checked the model release and lo! The guy in the image wasn't even the same dude who was complaining. "He'd misidentified himself," Lichfield said.
"All of which just proves the story we ran: hipsters look so much alike that they can’t even tell themselves apart from each other."
Boom. Thirty-four pages of theory proven in a brief round of email tennis. Your move, hipsters. ®
Sponsored: Becoming a Pragmatic Security Leader
Netflix To Adapt Gabriel García Márquez’s Literary Classic ‘One Hundred Years of Solitude’ Into Spanish-Language Series
Joel Thrasymachus DahlI'm both skeptical, and intrigued. So much of what makes the magical realism in that book work is how much of it is left to the imagination. A fancy special effects rendering of things like a living undulating river of a murdered man's blood could either be amazingly good, or so good as to undercut the whole point of that weird-ass shit.
Prospiracy Theories
[Title from this unrelated story or this unrelated essay]
Last week I wrote about how conspiracy theories spread so much faster on Facebook than debunkings of those same theories. A few commenters chimed in to say that of course this was true, the conspiracy theories had evolved into an almost-perfect form for exploiting cognitive biases and the pressures of social media. Debunkings and true beliefs couldn’t copy that process, so they were losing out.
This sounded like a challenge, so here you go:



Opinion | How Giuliani Might Take Down Trump
Joel Thrasymachus DahlShared for the pic of Giuliani in that obvious and terrible wig.
How Giuliani Might Take Down Trump
The parallels between the Mafia and the Trump Organization are striking, and Giuliani perfected the template for prosecuting organized crime.

Any onetime Mafia investigator who listened to the Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen testify Wednesday would have immediately recognized the congressional hearing’s historical analogue — what America witnessed on Capitol Hill wasn’t so much John Dean turning on President Richard Nixon, circa 1973; it was the mobster Joseph Valachi turning on the Cosa Nostra, circa 1963.
The Valachi hearings, led by Senator John McClellan of Arkansas, opened the country’s eyes for the first time to the Mafia, as the witness broke “omertà” — the code of silence — to speak in public about “this thing of ours,” Cosa Nostra. He explained just how “organized” organized crime actually was — with soldiers, capos, godfathers and even the “Commission,” the governing body of the various Mafia families.
Fighting the Mafia posed a uniquely hard challenge for investigators. Mafia families were involved in numerous distinct crimes and schemes, over yearslong periods, all for the clear benefit of its leadership, but those very leaders were tough to prosecute because they were rarely involved in the day-to-day crime. They spoke in their own code, rarely directly ordering a lieutenant to do something illegal, but instead offering oblique instructions or expressing general wishes that their lieutenants simply knew how to translate into action.
Those explosive — and arresting — hearings led to the 1970 passage of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, better known as RICO, a law designed to allow prosecutors to go after enterprises that engaged in extended, organized criminality. RICO laid out certain “predicate” crimes — those that prosecutors could use to stitch together evidence of a corrupt organization and then go after everyone involved in the organization as part of an organized conspiracy. While the headline-grabbing RICO “predicates” were violent crimes like murder, kidnapping, arson and robbery, the statute also focused on crimes like fraud, obstruction of justice, money laundering and even aiding or abetting illegal immigration.
Advertisement
It took prosecutors a while to figure out how to use RICO effectively, but by the mid-1980s, federal investigators in the Southern District of New York were hitting their stride under none other than the crusading United States attorney Rudy Giuliani, who as the head of the Southern District brought charges in 1985 against the heads of the city’s five dominant Mafia families.
Ever since, S.D.N.Y. prosecutors and F.B.I. agents have been the nation’s gold standard in RICO prosecutions — a fact that makes clear precisely why, after Mr. Cohen’s testimony, President Trump’s greatest legal jeopardy may not be in the investigation by the special counsel, Robert Mueller.
What lawmakers heard Wednesday sounded a lot like a racketeering enterprise: an organization with a few key players and numerous overlapping crimes — not just one conspiracy, but many. Even leaving aside any questions about the Mueller investigation and the 2016 campaign, Mr. Cohen leveled allegations that sounded like bank fraud, charity fraud and tax fraud, as well as hints of insurance fraud, obstruction of justice and suborning perjury.
The parallels between the Mafia and the Trump Organization are more than we might like to admit: After all, Mr. Cohen was labeled a “rat” by President Trump last year for agreeing to cooperate with investigators; interestingly, in the language of crime, “rats” generally aren’t seen as liars. They’re “rats” precisely because they turn state’s evidence and tell the truth, spilling the secrets of a criminal organization.
Mr. Cohen was clear about the rot at the center of his former employer: “Everybody’s job at the Trump Organization is to protect Mr. Trump. Every day most of us knew we were coming and we were going to lie for him about something. That became the norm.”
Advertisement
RICO was precisely designed to catch the godfathers and bosses at the top of these crime syndicates — people a step or two removed from the actual crimes committed, those whose will is made real, even without a direct order.
Exactly, it appears, as Mr. Trump did at the top of his family business: “Mr. Trump did not directly tell me to lie to Congress. That’s not how he operates,” Mr. Cohen said. Mr. Trump, Mr. Cohen said, “doesn’t give orders. He speaks in code. And I understand that code.”
What’s notable about Mr. Cohen’s comments is how they paint a consistent (and credible) pattern of Mr. Trump’s behavior: The former F.B.I. director James Comey, in testimony nearly two years ago in the wake of his firing, made almost exactly the same point and used almost exactly the same language. Mr. Trump never directly ordered him to drop the Flynn investigation, Mr. Comey said, but he made it all too clear what he wanted — the president isolated Mr. Comey, with no other ears around, and then said he hoped Mr. Comey “can let this go.” As Mr. Comey said, “I took it as, this is what he wants me to do.” He cited in his testimony then the famous example of King Henry II’s saying, “Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?,” a question that resulted in the murder of that very meddlesome priest, Thomas Becket.
The sheer number and breadth of the investigations into Mr. Trump’s orbit these days indicates how vulnerable the president’s family business would be to just this type of prosecution. In December, I counted 17, and since then, investigators have started an inquiry into undocumented workers at Mr. Trump’s New Jersey golf course, another crime that could be a RICO predicate; Mr. Cohen’s public testimony itself, where he certainly laid out enough evidence and bread crumbs for prosecutors to verify his allegations, mentioned enough criminal activity to build a racketeering case. Moreover, RICO allows prosecutors to wrap 10 years of racketeering activity into a single set of charges, which is to say, almost precisely the length of time — a decade — that Michael Cohen would have unparalleled insight into Mr. Trump’s operations. Similarly, many Mafia cases end up being built on wiretaps — just like, for instance, the perhaps 100 recordings Mr. Cohen says he made of people during his tenure working for Mr. Trump, recordings that federal investigators are surely poring over as part of the 290,000 documents and files they seized in their April raid last year.
Indicting the whole Trump Organization as a “corrupt enterprise” could also help prosecutors address the thorny question of whether the president can be indicted in office; they could lay out a whole pattern of criminal activity, indict numerous players — including perhaps Trump family members — and leave the president himself as a named, unindicted co-conspirator. Such an action would allow investigators to make public all the known activity for Congress and the public to consider as part of impeachment hearings or re-election. It would also activate powerful forfeiture tools for prosecutors that could allow them to seize the Trump Organization’s assets and cut off its income streams.
The irony will be that if federal prosecutors decide to move against President Trump’s empire and family together, he’ll have one man’s model to thank: his own TV lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, who perfected the template to tackle precisely that type of criminal enterprise.
The Helicopter Bunny
Once there was an overprotected little bunny who wanted some space, so he said to his mother, “I am running away.”
“If you run away,” said his mother, “I will run after you with a stainless steel container of organic strawberries, for you are my exceptional little bunny.”
“If you run after me,” said the little bunny, “I will go to the playground — the one you call the ‘trashy playground’ — and play with kids you don’t like the look of.”
“If you play with the kids in the trashy playground,” said his mother, “I will follow you around and offer to help you with anything that seems too tricky.”
“If you follow me around,” said the bunny, “I’ll run into the field and hide behind a tree.”
“If you hide behind a tree,” said his mother, “I will organize all the other parents into a search party and find you, then put you on a leash next time.”
“If you put me on a leash,” said the little bunny, “I’ll refuse to leave the house with it on.”
“If you refuse to leave the house with your leash on,” said the mother bunny, “I’ll strap you into a giant stroller that you’re clearly too old for.”
“If you strap me in a giant stroller,” said the little bunny, “I’ll start school early with the neighbor kid.”
“If you start school early with the neighbor kid,” said his mother, “I’ll volunteer in your class twice a week, just to make sure everything is being handled optimally for your development.”
“If you volunteer in my class twice a week,” said the little bunny, “I’ll pretend I can’t hear you when you try to help me with stuff.”
“If you pretend you can’t hear me when I try to help you with stuff,” said the mother bunny, “I’ll have you referred for a speech and language assessment.”
“If you have me referred for a speech and language assessment,” said the bunny, “I’ll pass with flying colors and make you look paranoid.”
“If you pass with flying colors and make me look paranoid,” said his mother, “I’ll put you in a school for gifted children.”
“If you put me in a school for gifted children,” said the bunny, “I’ll fail on purpose so I can go back to regular school with my friends.”
“If you try to fail on purpose,” said the mother bunny, “I’ll check your grades and do your homework for you when you’re asleep.”
“If you check my grades and do my homework when I’m asleep,” said the little bunny, “I’ll change my login.”
“If you change your school login,” said his mother, “I’ll contact the dean and get the password reset. I’m SURE she’ll believe me when I tell her that you forgot it again.”
“If you contact the dean and change my password,” said the bunny, “I’ll only apply to colleges on the other coast.”
“If you only apply to colleges on the other coast,” said his mother, “I’ll buy a condo near the one you choose and spend long weekends there checking up on you.”
“If you buy a condo near my college and come visit all the time,” said the little bunny, “I’ll change my phone number and hide out in my friends’ dorm rooms.”
“If you change your phone number and hide out in your friends’ dorm rooms,” said the mother bunny, “I’ll know the new one because I still pay your phone bill. I’ll locate you on Find My Friends, and I’ll bang the freaking door down and that won’t make you look very cool, will it?”
“If you bang my friends’ door down,” said the little bunny, “I’ll drop out from all the stress of you bothering me and having to actually do my own homework.”
“If you drop out,” said his mother, “I’ll buy a bigger condo and the latest PlayStation just in case you want to move in. Your dad is staying in the old house, and I’ve pretty much moved out here now.”
“Shucks,” said the little bunny, “I might just as well stay where I am and be your little bunny.” And so he did.
“Have an organic strawberry,” said the mother bunny.
You Can Read the New York Times for Free in California

On Tuesday, the New York Times announced its content will be entirely free to anyone carrying a library card in California. Here’s how to access the news as easily as you access sunshine, Californians.
It’s not just current articles in the NYT that are available; according to The Hill, library cards also allow access to all its digital content and archives. There is already a substantial number of readers of the East coast paper in CA, so this seems to be some sort of reward:
“California is home to one of our biggest cohorts of readers, so we know that Californians value quality journalism that helps them understand not just the news that impacts their communities, but also what’s happening at the global level,” said Hannah Yang, head of subscription growth at The New York Times.
You must register with your card if you are accessing the site remotely, but if you’re in one of California’s 1,200 libraries, you can access the NYT directly without inputting your library credentials. That’s nice for anyone road tripping through!
There are instructions on how to input your information remotely here; you’ll be linked to a portal where you will have to give your card number and pin. If you’ve never logged on before, you’ll need to create an account:
For remote users, click on the Create Account button and fill out the required fields on the following page, or click on log in here if you already have an account. For users on library computers, click on log in in the upper right and log in or create an account.
And then the world, or at least the parts of it reported on by the New York Times, is your oyster.
Supreme Court says constitutional protection against excessive fines applies to state actions
Joel Thrasymachus DahlAnd unanimous, too!
Supreme Court says constitutional protection against excessive fines applies to state actions
The Supreme Court ruled unanimously Wednesday that the Constitution’s prohibition on excessive fines applies to state and local governments, limiting their abilities to impose fines and seize property.
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, on just her second day back on the bench after undergoing cancer surgery in December, announced the decision for the court, saying that the Eighth Amendment’s Excessive Fines Clause protects against government retribution.
“For good reason, the protection against excessive fines has been a constant shield throughout Anglo-American history: Exorbitant tolls undermine other constitutional liberties,” Ginsburg wrote. “Excessive fines can be used, for example, to retaliate against or chill the speech of political enemies. . . . Even absent a political motive, fines may be employed in a measure out of accord with the penal goals of retribution and deterrence.”
[He sold drugs and Indiana seized his car. Does the Constitution protect him?]
The court ruled in favor of Tyson Timbs of Marion, Ind., who had his $42,000 Land Rover seized after he was arrested for selling a couple hundred dollars’ worth of heroin.
He drew wide support from civil liberties organizations who want to limit civil forfeitures, which they say empower localities and law enforcement to seize property of someone suspected of a crime as a revenue stream.
(Gabe Silverman/The Washington Post)
Some justices, too, had become worried about the state and local efforts.
Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in a recent opinion that civil forfeitures have “become widespread and highly profitable.”
“This system — where police can seize property with limited judicial oversight and retain it for their own use — has led to egregious and well-chronicled abuses,” Thomas wrote, referring to reporting by The Washington Post and the New Yorker.
[Aggressive police take hundreds of millions of dollars from motorists not charged with crimes]
At oral argument, Timbs’s lawyer said the case was a simple matter of “constitutional housekeeping.”
The Constitution’s Bill of Rights protects against actions of the federal government. But the Supreme Court over time has applied it to state and local governments under the due-process clause of the 14th Amendment. In 2010, for instance, the court held that the Second Amendment applied to state and local government laws on gun control.
The Eighth Amendment states: “Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.” Two of those commands — regarding bail and cruel and unusual punishments — have been deemed to apply to state and local governments. But until now, the ban on excessive fines had not been.
And the Indiana Supreme Court noted that when overturning a lower court’s ruling that the actions taken against Timbs were excessive.
Ginsburg’s opinion makes clear that the clause applies, and that it is “incorporated” under the 14th Amendment’s due process Clause. Justices Thomas and Neil M. Gorsuch agreed with the outcome, but said they would have relied on a different part of the 14th Amendment.
The case is Timbs v. Indiana.
Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld says he will challenge President Trump for the Republican presidential nomination
Joel Thrasymachus DahlI've never heard of this dude, but EXCELLENT.
Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld says he will challenge President Trump for the Republican presidential nomination
The president remains popular with Republican voters, but Weld said he would attempt to defeat him or at a minimum hurt him with a primary challenge. Weld, who was governor of Massachusetts from 1991 until 1997, left the Republican Party in 2016 to run as the Libertarian Party’s vice-presidential nominee. He returned to the GOP this month.
Everyone’s Running — And That Could Be Dangerous For The Democrats
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar became the 10th major Democratic candidate for president on Sunday. She almost certainly won’t be the last addition to the field. Another 20 or so prominent Democrats are still considering a presidential bid, which could eventually send the number of candidates into the teens or even 20s — perhaps eclipsing the 17 major candidates who ran for the Republican nomination in 2016.
But is the number of candidates really a meaningful metric? Sometimes the field can winnow dramatically in the run-up to the first primaries and caucuses or shortly thereafter. By my count, 12 major candidates sought the Republican nomination in 2000. But many of them dropped out before anyone voted, and after New Hampshire it was really just a two-way race between then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain. And in 2004, then-Sen. John Kerry emerged from a crowded Democratic field to win the nomination fairly easily after strong showings in the early states.
Those cases are more the exception than the rule, however. In fact, the size of the field usually does tell us a lot about how the primary will play out. In particular, it tells us whether party elites are likely to form a consensus around a single candidate, as the Democratic establishment did around Hillary Clinton in 2016 but as Republicans famously failed to do in that year’s primary process, paving the way for the nomination of President Trump.
The crowded field developing for 2020 doesn’t necessarily imply that an anti-establishment candidate will prevail. Even when party elites don’t get their first choice, they usually get someone they can live with. But the high number of candidates does imply a higher-than-usual risk of chaos.
It also implies that the “next-in-line” candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, aren’t intimidating anyone. Neither Biden nor Sanders have officially entered the race yet, and it’s possible they’ll unveil a slew of endorsements when (and if) they do, which would show that the party backed them all along. But that seems unlikely. If they had strong support from party elites, we probably wouldn’t have so many other candidates already running or actively contemplating a bid — especially candidates who appeal to the same kinds of voters as Sanders and Biden do.28 That inference also aligns with reporting about Biden and Sanders that suggests they’re having trouble finding the support from party actors they were hoping for.
Let’s take a step back, though. How to define the number of “major” candidates running for president is a little tricky. Technically, there are already hundreds of people who have filed their paperwork to run for president in 2020, but most of them are people you’ve never heard of and never will. In a perfect world, you might evaluate a series of criteria to determine who’s a major candidate, including whether they’re regularly included in media coverage about the campaign, whether they’re included in polls, whether they’ve raise a significant amount of money, whether they’re invited to participate in the debates, whether they have traditional credentials for the presidency, whether they have ballot access in most states, and so forth. It’s probably worth erring on the side of inclusiveness, but you can go overboard and wind up with a list that’s dozens or hundreds of candidates long. For purposes of this article, though, I’m mostly using press coverage and credentials as the markers of major candidates. If the media is ambivalent about whether someone qualifies as a major candidate, I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt if they’ve held elected office before, but otherwise not.
In my judgment, then, there are 10 major Democrats who have either officially launched their campaigns or formed a presidential exploratory committee. (Note that entering the race29 and withdrawing still counts as running; this will become relevant in a moment.) Here are the first nine, in alphabetical order:
- Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey.
- Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana.
- Former San Antonio mayor and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro.
- Former U.S. Rep. John Delaney of Maryland.
- U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.
- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.
- Sen. Kamala Harris of California.
- Sen. Klobuchar of Minnesota.
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
You could probably argue against the inclusion of Buttigieg and perhaps even against Delaney and Gabbard, but there is some precedent (albeit not a lot) for U.S. representatives becoming president, and Buttigieg is getting a fair amount of media coverage (and he’s an elected official). But Andrew Yang, the founder of a nonprofit that teaches young people to run startups, and Marianne Williamson, an author and “spiritual teacher,” probably do not qualify as major candidates as they don’t hold public office, nor are they nationally renowned for other reasons. A harder case is former West Virginia state senator Richard Ojeda, who dropped out after entering the race in November. In terms of media coverage, such as number of newspaper articles written about them, Ojeda was about halfway between Yang and Buttigieg. I’m inclined to include him because, as mentioned, I prefer to give candidates who have held elected office the benefit of the doubt. Thus:
- 10. Former state senator Richard Ojeda of West Virginia (withdrawn).
Which other Democrats might enter the field? Here is a possibly incomplete list of names. I’ve included everyone who is:
- Given at least a 10 percent chance of running at PredictIt.
- Or is included on The New York Times’s list of potential candidates.
- Or has expressed in a recent news story that they’re still considering a bid.30
Which other Democrats might run for president?
Chance that potential Democratic presidential candidates might run, based on PredictIt evaluations,* The New York Times and Nate’s guesses
| Candidate | Chance | Source |
|---|---|---|
| John Hickenlooper | 89% | PredictIt |
| Bernie Sanders | 88 | PredictIt |
| Sherrod Brown | 87 | PredictIt |
| Jay Inslee | 87 | PredictIt |
| Beto O’Rourke | 77 | PredictIt |
| Steve Bullock | 75 | New York Times guesstimate |
| Joe Biden | 74 | PredictIt |
| Eric Holder | 66 | PredictIt |
| Eric Swalwell | 60 | Nate’s wild guesstimate |
| Terry McAuliffe | 59 | PredictIt |
| Jeff Merkley | 50 | New York Times guesstimate |
| Tim Ryan | 40 | Nate’s wild guesstimate |
| Seth Moulton | 40 | Nate’s wild guesstimate |
| Michael Bloomberg | 33 | PredictIt |
| Michael Bennet | 25 | New York Times guesstimate |
| Bill de Blasio | 25 | New York Times guesstimate |
| John Kerry | 25 | New York Times guesstimate |
| Stacey Abrams | 20 | Nate’s wild guesstimate |
| Mitch Landrieu | 15 | PredictIt |
| Hillary Clinton | 11 | PredictIt |
| Andrew Cuomo | 10 | PredictIt |
* As of 5:15 p.m. on Feb. 12, 2019.
For Inslee, O’Rourke, Bloomberg and Landrieu, PredictIt asks bettors whether a potential candidate will enter the race by a certain date, rather than whether they’ll run at all.
These probabilities imply that an additional 10 or 11 Democrats will enter the race, although there’s still a fairly wide range of possibilities. If you assume (possibly dubiously) that each candidate’s decision is independent, the 95 percent confidence interval runs from seven additional candidates to 14. That means that we’ll end up with a total of between 17 and 24 Democratic candidates, including the 10 (one since withdrawn) we have already.
So while a handful of candidates have declined a bid — Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick probably foremost among them — this is likely to be a very big, possibly even record-breaking field.
In primaries since 1972 that haven’t featured an incumbent president, parties have averaged about 10 major candidates for president. So Democrats are looking at roughly double the average. Here’s who I consider the major candidates to have been in past years — again, acknowledging that the term “major” is pretty subjective but that I’m erring on the side of inclusivity:
How many ‘major’ candidates ran in previous primaries?
Number of major candidates in presidential primaries since 1972, excluding primaries for parties with an incumbent president running for re-election
| Year | Party | No. of Candidates | Nominee | Other candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 17 to 24 | ? | Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Ojeda, Warren, others TBD |
| 2016 | R | 17 | Trump | Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Paul, Christie, Huckabee, Fiorina, Gilmore, Santorum, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, Pataki |
| 2016 | D | 5 | Clinton | Sanders, O’Malley, Chafee, Webb |
| 2012 | R | 12 | Romney | Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Huntsman, Bachmann, Roemer, Johnson, Cain, McCotter, Pawlenty |
| 2008 | R | 12 | McCain | Romney, Huckabee, Paul, F. Thompson, Keyes, Hunter, Giuliani, Brownback, Gilmore, Tancredo, T. Thompson |
| 2008 | D | 10 | Obama | Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich, Vilsack, Bayh |
| 2004 | D | 10 | Kerry | Edwards, Dean, Clark, Kucinich, Gephardt, Lieberman, Sharpton, Moseley Braun, Graham |
| 2000 | R | 12 | Bush | McCain, Keyes, Forbes, Bauer, Hatch, Alexander, Buchanan, Dole, Kasich, Quayle, Smith |
| 2000 | D | 2 | Gore | Bradley |
| 1996 | R | 12 | Dole | Buchanan, Forbes, Alexander, Keyes, Dornan, Gramm, Lugar, Specter, Wilson, Fletcher, Taylor |
| 1992 | D | 8 | Clinton | Brown, Kerrey, Harkin, Tsongas, McCarthy, Wilder, Agran |
| 1988 | R | 7 | Bush | Dole, Robertson, Kemp, du Pont, Haig, Laxalt |
| 1988 | D | 11 | Dukakis | Jackson, Gore, Gephardt, Simon, Hart, Babbitt, Traficant, Applegate, Schroeder, Biden |
| 1984 | D | 8 | Mondale | Hart, Jackson, Glenn, McGovern, Askew, Cranston, Hollings |
| 1980 | R | 9 | Reagan | Bush, Anderson, Baker, Connally, Crane, Dole, Pressler, Weicker |
| 1976 | D | 16 | Carter | Brown, Wallace, Udall, Jackson, Church, Bayh, Bentsen, Byrd, Fauntroy, Harris, Shapp, Shriver, Washington, Sanford, Mondale |
| 1972 | D | 15 | McGovern | Humphrey, Wallace, Muskie, Chisholm, Bayh, Harris, Hartke, Jackson, Lindsay, McCarthy, Mills, Mink, Sanford, Yorty |
“Major” is a somewhat squishy term, and although this list errs on the side of inclusivity, a few candidates may have slipped through the cracks. The table includes candidates who withdrew before competing in any primaries.
I have the 17-candidate Republican field of 2016 as the largest since at least 1972, although the 1972 (15 candidates) and 1976 (16 candidates) Democratic primaries are close. You can also see how the number of candidates has tended to rise and fall over time. After the chaotic 1972 and 1976 nomination cycles, parties averaged 8.6 candidates per cycle between 1980 and 2000. The average has been 11 per election since 2004, however, and it will likely rise to 12 or 13 depending on how many more candidates we get this year.
As should be pretty intuitive, larger fields are correlated with more prolonged nomination processes in which both voters and party elites have a harder time reaching consensus. Below is a table comparing the number of candidates in each past cycle against the share of the overall popular vote the nominee eventually received. I’ve also included a more subjective measure of whether party elites were able to get their way. I consider the party to have decided — that is, for party elites to have gotten their preferred choice — if there was a clear front-runner in endorsements in advance of the Iowa caucuses and that candidate won the nomination. And I consider the elites to have failed if a factional candidate who lacked broad support from the party establishment won. Then there are in-between cases such as the 2008 Democratic primary, in which party elites didn’t necessarily get their first choice (or there wasn’t a clear first choice), but the candidate who emerged was broadly acceptable to multiple major factions of the party.
Bigger primary fields mean more uncertainty
Number of “major” candidates in presidential primaries since 1972* and whether the eventual nominee was favored by party elites
| Year | Party | Nominee | No. of Candidates | Did party elites get what they wanted? | Nominee’s share of pop. vote in primaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | R | Trump | 17 | No | 44.9% |
| 1976 | D | Carter | 16 | No | 40.2 |
| 1972 | D | McGovern | 15 | No | 25.3 |
| 2012 | R | Romney | 12 | Yes | 52.1 |
| 2008 | R | McCain | 12 | Sort of | 46.7 |
| 2000 | R | W. Bush | 12 | Yes | 62.0 |
| 1996 | R | Dole | 12 | Yes | 58.8 |
| 1988 | D | Dukakis | 11 | Sort of | 42.4 |
| 2008 | D | Obama | 10 | Sort of | 47.4 |
| 2004 | D | Kerry | 10 | Sort of | 61.0 |
| 1980 | R | Reagan | 9 | Yes | 59.8 |
| 1992 | D | B. Clinton | 8 | Yes | 52.0 |
| 1984 | D | Mondale | 8 | Yes | 38.3 |
| 1988 | R | H.W. Bush | 7 | Yes | 67.9 |
| 2016 | D | H. Clinton | 5 | Yes | 55.2 |
| 2000 | D | Gore | 2 | Yes | 75.4 |
* Excluding nomination processes for which an incumbent president was running for that party.
“Major” is a somewhat squishy term, and although this list errs on the side of inclusivity, a few candidates may have slipped through the cracks. The table includes candidates who withdrew before competing in any primaries.
Source: Wikipedia
This table ought to worry establishment Democrats. The three past elections when the field was as large as its shaping up to be in 2020 all resulted in party elites failing to get their way. They also resulted in a nominee who failed to get 50 percent of the popular vote in the primaries, which could yield a contested convention since Democratic delegate allocation rules are highly proportional to the popular vote. In a field of 20 candidates, for instance, you’d project — extrapolating from the data above — that the eventual nominee would have either 32 percent or 40 percent of the popular vote, depending on whether you use a linear or logarithmic trendline. That could mean that the race is decided at the convention.

Granted, extrapolation can be dangerous in cases like these. If we do wind up with a field of 20 or so Democratic candidates, we’ll be in outlier-land because we’ve never had a field so large before.
But the past electoral cycles where the field was nearly as big as this one shouldn’t exactly be comforting to Democrats, and it should be particularly worrying for next-in-line candidates such as Biden. Democratic voters like a lot of their choices and feel optimistic about their chances of beating Trump in 2020. The large field is both a sign that there may not be consensus about the best candidate and a source of unpredictability.
From ABC News:
Opinion | The Political Magic of Us Vs. Them
The Political Magic of Us Vs. Them
Encouraging and exploiting division has worked for Trump, as far as his own electoral prospects are concerned. Can he keep it up?
Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from Washington, D.C. on politics, demographics and inequality.

However often President Trump strays from his favored political strategy, he faithfully returns to it like a dog to a bone: first, polarize the American electorate along racial, cultural and economic lines, then exploit the schisms that have supplanted the class divisions that were once central to both American and European partisan politics.
On one side of the divide are those whom the political scientists Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart describe in a 2016 paper as comfortable with “an inexorable cultural escalator moving postindustrial societies steadily in a more progressive direction.” This new direction amounts to what the authors call
an intergenerational shift toward post-materialist values, such as cosmopolitanism and multiculturalism, generating rising support for left-libertarian parties such as the Greens and other progressive movements advocating environmental protection, human rights, and gender equality.
On the other side, Norris and Inglehart write, is a counterrevolution, a
retro backlash, especially among the older generation, white men, and less educated sectors, who sense decline and actively reject the rising tide of progressive values, resent the displacement of familiar traditional norms, and provide a pool of supporters potentially vulnerable to populist appeals.
Economic distress, they argue, reinforces cultural alienation to produce fertile terrain for Trump. “Fears of economic insecurity, including the individual experience of the loss of secure, well-paid blue-collar jobs, and the collective experience of living in declining communities of the left-behinds” combine to make voters
more susceptible to the anti-establishment appeals of authoritarian-populist actors, offering simple slogans blaming “Them” for stripping prosperity, job opportunities, and public services from “Us.”
The collision of these forces has produced the emergence of an American authoritarianism. In their book, “Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit and Authoritarian Populism,” which comes out later this week, Norris and Inglehart write that Trump has assumed leadership of this authoritarian movement,
defined as a cluster of values prioritizing collective security for the group at the expense of liberal autonomy for the individual. Authoritarian values prioritize three core components: 1) the importance of security against risks of instability and disorder (foreigners stealing our jobs, immigrants attacking our women, terrorists threatening our safety); 2) the value of group conformity to preserve conventional traditions and to guard our way of life (defending “Us” against threats to “European values”); and 3) the need for loyal obedience toward strong leaders who protect the group and its customs (“I alone can fix it," “Believe me,” “Are you on my team?").
The United States and many European countries, at various points in the last decade, have reached a critical juncture, Norris and Inglehart write: “The interwar generation, non-college graduates, the working class, white Europeans, the more religious, men and residents of rural communities” have come to feel “estranged from the silent revolution in social and moral values, left behind by cultural tides that they deeply reject.” These men and women, “until recently the politically and socially dominant group in Western cultures,” reached
a tipping point at which their hegemonic status, power and privilege is fading. Their values make them potential supporters for parties and leaders promising to restore national sovereignty (Make America Great Again), restrict immigration and multicultural diversity (Build a Wall) and defend traditional religious and conventional moral values.
The debate over whether the rise of right-wing populism is driven by cultural anxiety, racism, ethnocentricity or economic deprivation may “be somewhat artificial,” Norris and Inglehart contend because
interactive processes may possibly link these factors, if structural changes in the work force and social trends in globalized markets heighten economic insecurity, and if this, in turn, stimulates a negative backlash among traditionalists toward cultural shifts. It may not be an either/or question, but one of relative emphasis with interactive effects.
In this country, the nominally class-based politics of the New Deal fractured when working class non-college whites felt abandoned by a Democratic Party that shed its pre-civil rights, segregationist southern wing and that by the 1970s had adopted a culturally and racially liberal agenda. Over the past five decades, these white voters have formed the core of the populist right. Conversely, minorities, many of whom face the same economic hardships as working class whites, if not worse, are firmly aligned with the party of social and cultural liberalism and racial equality, the Democratic Party.
“The new cultural cleavage dividing Populists and Cosmopolitan Liberals,” Norris and Inglehart write, is “orthogonal to the classic economic class cleavage” — in other words, the new division cuts across and splits the old economic class solidarity.
Data from a preliminary American National Election Studies survey — provided to me by Matthew DeBell, a scholar at Stanford’s Institute for Research in the Social Sciences — revealed the strength of this new cleavage. The survey asked 2,500 men and women to rank their feelings toward Trump on a “feeling thermometer” scale of zero, “very cold or unfavorable,” to 100, “very warm or favorable.”
Advertisement
The results illustrate that the population is even more divided between those who love and those who hate Trump than we might think. Sixty-one percent had either extremely hostile or very positive feelings toward the president.
Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, analyzed the responses to the survey. He wrote me that nearly two out of five of those surveyed, 38 percent, put Trump in the coldest range, 5 degrees or lower. 23 percent, put him in the warmest range, 95 degrees or higher. If the definition of extreme is expanded to encompass those who rank Trump from 0 to 10 and from 90 to 100, the total grows to 72 percent — 44 percent at 10 degrees or lower, 28 percent 90 degrees or higher.
Abramowitz noted that “Trump is the most polarizing president in the history of ANES polling and Gallup polling.”
Not only is Trump the most polarizing president, he has monopolized public attention and managed to make himself the object of both loathing and adoration.
“The 2020 elections will certainly be all about Trump, assuming he is on the ballot and to a considerable extent even if he is not,” Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California-San Diego, wrote me in an email. “The 2018 election was all about Trump even though he was not on the ballot.”
Advertisement
Stanley Feldman, a political scientist at Stony Brook University, elaborated on Trump’s self-generated centrality in an email:
While Democrats and Republicans were already quite polarized before Trump ran for the presidency, I don’t think there is any question that he has contributed to further polarization. It is increasingly difficult to find people who don’t feel strongly about him.
Trump, Feldman noted,
taps into some fundamental issues in contemporary American politics — race/ethnicity, social issues, nationalism — and his rhetoric — clearly designed to appeal to his base — turns off many of those who are not with him on those issues. When you do little or nothing to broaden your support beyond your core voters you will generate extreme affective reactions.
Feldman posed the question:
Will this make the 2020 election largely about Trump? To a great extent yes, though the answer to that will depend in part on who the Democratic candidate is. As we saw in 2016, negative reactions to Hillary Clinton contributed to the outcome of that election.
Feldman’s point about Clinton leads to the next question. As the Democratic selection of a nominee begins in earnest, one issue threatens the cohesion of the center-left coalition: whether the party should support expansive liberal initiatives like Medicare for All, a sharp hike in tax rates on the rich and a Green New Deal or whether it should stake out the center.
Columnists who lean toward the center themselves have been particularly sharp in their criticism of the leftward movement of the party.
“Democrats Are Boosting Trump’s Re-election Prospects,” read the headline of a National Journal article last week by Josh Kraushaar:
Their top 2020 presidential hopefuls are embracing socialist-minded economic policy, from a Green New Deal to single-payer health insurance. It’s playing right into the president’s hands.
Gerald Seib, a columnist at The Wall Street Journal, wrote earlier this week that “Democrats have arrived at a moment of great opportunity, but also of great peril.”
Increasingly, he argued, the party has become
identified with policy proposals that are easy for Republicans to caricature as left-wing extremism. It is a fair bet that a majority of congressional Democrats don’t support either a 70 percent top tax rate or an across-the-board wealth tax on the richest Americans.
In addition, Seib noted, “the party is beginning to experience the consequences of a zero-tolerance attitude on perceived misbehavior.”
According to Seib, “Democrats face this question: Could they manage to scare off that center just as it has become so available?” The risk, Seib wrote,
is that centrist voters will think they see that an angry left wing taking charge. Democrats could appear to be succumbing to the national mood of anger, when the better image might be of hope.
In his State of the Union address on Feb. 5, Trump laid the groundwork for an assault on Democrats, declaring:
Here, in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in our country. America was founded on liberty and independence — not government coercion, domination, and control. We are born free, and we will stay free. Tonight, we renew our resolve that America will never be a socialist country.
I asked Brian Schaffner, a political scientist at Tufts who is one of the directors of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, whether Democratic primary voters are pushing presidential candidates to take stands on issues further to the left than the general electorate would accept.
Contrary to the view of many political analysts, Schaffner countered with data suggesting that this is not the case.
“I actually don’t think Democratic primary voters are substantially more liberal than Democrats more broadly,” he wrote, adding that many of the party’s new policy initiatives are, in fact, “favored by a majority of those who voted in 2016.”
Sign up for Frank Bruni's newsletter
Get a more personal, less conventional take on political developments, newsmakers, cultural milestones and more with Frank Bruni’s exclusive commentary every week.
* Captcha is incomplete. Please try again.
Thank you for subscribing
You can also view our other newsletters or visit your account to opt out or manage email preferences.
An error has occurred. Please try again later.
You are already subscribed to this email.
Advertisement
He cited the following results from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study survey.
Who favored granting legal status to immigrants? Democratic primary voters: 79 percent support; Democrats in general: 77 percent support; all voters: 55 percent support.
Who would require minimum amounts of renewable energy? Democratic primary voters: 85 percent support; Democrats in general: 80 percent support; all voters: 61 percent support.
Ban assault rifles? Democratic primary voters: 91 percent support; Democrats in general: 84 percent support; all voters: 64 percent.
Eliminate mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent offenders? Democratic primary voters: 84 percent support; Democrats in general: 78 percent support; all voters: 67 percent.
How about raising the minimum wage to $12 per hour? Democratic primary voters: 92 percent support; Democrats in general: 90 percent support; all voters: 65 percent.
Along similar lines, four political scientists, John Sides and Christopher Warshaw of George Washington University, and Lynn Vavreck and Chris Tausanovitch of UCLA, write in a March 2018 paper, “On the Representativeness of Primary Electorates” that “primary voters are frequently characterized as an ideologically extreme subset of their party, and thus partially responsible for increasing party polarization in government.” On the contrary, they find “that primary voters are similar to rank and file voters in their party” and thus “the composition of primary electorates does not exert a polarizing effect above what might arise from voters in the party as a whole.”
Jacobson of UCSD strongly agreed, arguing that Democrats’ intense dislike of Trump will make them willing to forgive a candidate who fails to adopt all their favored policies if the candidate looks like a winner:
Most Democrats will have as their prime goal — far more important than positions taken by the candidates — making sure Trump does not have a second term.
The national election survey cited above reveals the depth of the electorate’s divisions on a range of issues in the Trump era.
Advertisement
On what may prove to the crucial subject of debate over the next two — impeachment — the public is split.
The survey found that a 42.1 plurality favors impeachment, including 24.9 percent who favor it strongly. A slightly smaller 38 percent oppose impeachment, including 30 percent who oppose it strongly. 19.9 percent did not take a stand.
Americans are evenly divided in their assessment of Trump’s repeated denials that neither he nor his campaign ever coordinated with Russia to defeat Hillary Clinton. According to the survey, 49.9 percent agreed with the statement “Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign probably coordinated with the Russians,” while 50.1 percent said the campaign “probably did not coordinate.”
One of Trump’s signature claims during the 2016 campaign was the promise that he would “drain the swamp” of corruption in the nation’s capital. That promise, according the public, is not holding up well.
The survey asked “Has corruption in government increased, decreased, or stayed the same since Donald Trump became president?” The result? More than half, 54 percent, said corruption has increased under Trump, including 26.6 percent who said it has increased “a great deal.” 28 percent said the level of corruption remains unchanged, and 18.4 percent said corruption had decreased. 3.1 percent said corruption had decreased “a great deal.”
Trump has railed against the Mueller investigation since it began, calling it an “illegal Joseph McCarthy style Witch Hunt.” Asked about the Mueller investigation, 45.1 of those surveyed said they approved, 16.6 points more than the 28.5 percent who said they disapproved, 19.7 percent “extremely strongly.” 28.4 percent had no opinion.
Trump has pushed the authoritarian envelope further than any president (or major party presidential candidate) in recent memory.
Let’s turn back to Gary Jacobson. “As long as Trump is on the scene, the nation is bound to remain deeply divided,” Jacobson writes in “Extreme Referendum: Donald Trump and the 2018 Midterm Elections,” which will appear in a forthcoming issue of Political Science Quarterly:
To the extent that he reshapes the Republican Party in his white nationalist image, these divisions will deepen further and every election, like the 2018 midterms, will be fought with both sides convinced that nothing less than the future of American democracy is at stake.
Norris and Inglehart suggest that the dependence of the populist right on older voters may lead to its steady decline as those voters die off, but they are not confident that this will happen. “It remains to be seen how resilient liberal democracy will be in Western societies, or whether it will be damaged irreparably by authoritarian populist forces” they write at the conclusion of their book. “The problem is not just Trump, nor is it just America. It reflects pervasive economic and cultural changes, for which there are no easy answers.”
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here's our email: letters@nytimes.com.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
Thomas B. Edsall has been a contributor to The Times Opinion section since 2011. His column on strategic and demographic trends in American politics appears every Wednesday. He previously covered politics for The Washington Post
Student Wins HackLA Mobility with App to Solve LA Traffic Woes - USC Viterbi | School of Engineering
Joel Thrasymachus DahlIf most drivers thought in terms of their long term gain instead of in terms of their short term reward, most drivers would already be car-poolers. And most drivers are not.

You’re at a standstill. Nothing but brake lights winding up the freeway ahead of you. Being trapped in LA gridlock is a nightmare any Angeleno knows all too well. However, a new app created in just 24 hours by Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering student Jake Beaudin and his team will offer creative solutions to the tedium of LA traffic.
The app, goodmoov, was proposed at the recent HackLA Mobility hackathon, which it won. Beaudin and his team were recently invited to discuss their app at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas during January, with the support of Daimler AG and moovel. In July, Daimler and moovel will also fly the team to Europe’s Leading Technology Festival, the Tech Open Air Conference in Berlin, Germany, where they will demo the app.
HackLA Mobility challenged participant teams to spend 24 hours devising a solution to traffic problems in LA, asking them “How do we get to a future without traffic?”

Jake Beaudin (right) and the goodmoov team, (L-R) Revell Bell (Claremont Graduate University), Pooja Nair (ArtCenter College of Design), Jonathon Markowski (ArtCenter College of Design).
The average LA commuter spends over 100 hours per year sitting in traffic, costing the driver around $1,400 annually.
Beaudin said that in Southern California, half of all congestion is comprised of recurrent bottlenecks. He said that when a large proportion of drivers simultaneously use routing apps like Google Maps and Waze to escape the bottlenecks, this can actually increase congestion, with multiple drivers trying to get out of the jam via the same suggested routes.
Transportation experts often propose reducing bottlenecks through congestion pricing, via a tax that discourages the use of high-traffic roads by increasing as roads get busier. Congestion pricing uses negative reinforcements to incentivize drivers to leave the most congested roads.
“We were saying, what if you did the opposite of that? What if instead of giving someone negative repercussions, we offered them positive reinforcement to leave traffic?” Beaudin said.

A screenshot from the goodmoov app. The app provides a suggested route for drivers to incentivize them to get out of bottlenecks.
The app works by removing a select number of drivers from congestion hotspots by offering them in-app points to take a different route which may be slightly longer. Beaudin said that these points could then be redeemable for a reward. The result is that bottlenecks would start to move more freely.
“One of the positive reinforcements we’re suggesting for drivers would be to give them coupons to local businesses that are on the way of the alternative route. That way we are driving people to support local businesses, and people at those businesses would be incentivized provide deals,” Beaudin said.
Beaudin had been working with his teammates at the tech incubator Idealab in Pasadena when the HackLA opportunity came about. They came up the concept for goodmoov within 24 hours and claimed top honors in the hackathon.
Beaudin is developing the app’s overhead simulation of LA traffic movement to show how the traffic functions at present and to demonstrate with predictive analysis how the app could mitigate the problem areas.
The team has a busy road ahead of them, building out the app in preparation for its showing in Europe this summer for the Tech Open Air conference.
“Now we’re working on a more complete app and a more robust stimulation to demonstrate it,” Beaudin said.
A Florida politician allegedly made a habit of licking men’s faces. She has now resigned.
Joel Thrasymachus DahlFlorida woman isn't going to let Florida man corner the market on weird
A Florida politician allegedly made a habit of licking men’s faces. She has now resigned.
Madeira Beach City Commissioner Nancy Oakley will face consequences for licking a city manager's face, which will include paying a $5,000 fine. (Spectrum Bay News 9)
It was supposed to be a fun, lighthearted alternative to typical government meetings, and one befitting a laid-back beach town. The city commission of Madeira Beach, Fla. — a coastal community of nearly 4,500 situated on a barrier island facing the Gulf of Mexico — had decided to hold a special outdoor meeting during the King of the Beach fishing tournament in November 2012. The main order of business: honoring a sister city in the Bahamas.
But things quickly got out of hand at the meeting, according to a report from the Florida Commission on Ethics. By her own admission, Nancy Oakley, a city commissioner in Madeira Beach, had done some drinking at the fishing competition. She spotted Shane Crawford, the city manager at the time, and Cheryl McGrady, his executive assistant. The two would later marry, but were in relationships with other people at the time. Oakley suspected them of having an affair.
Using expletives, she demanded McGrady, who was supposed to be acting as deputy city clerk and taking the minutes, be removed. Then, after the otherwise low-key meeting concluded, Oakley walked up to Crawford again. She allegedly licked his neck and the side of his face, slowly working her way up from his Adam’s apple, and groped him by grabbing at his crotch and buttocks.
McGrady, who had been standing there the entire time, told Oakley that her behavior was inappropriate. According to the report, Oakley threw a punch at the woman, but missed.
It wasn’t an isolated incident, Crawford told Bay News 9 last month. Oakley had a “habit of licking men that either she was attracted to or thought that she had authority over,” he said. He wrote in a 2017 complaint to the ethics board that Oakley had made unwanted advances toward other city staff, too, and that they were “not interested in enduring that type of treatment ever again.”
Oakley resigned from her position on the Madeira Beach City Commission on Tuesday, a week after the state ethics panel announced Crawford’s complaint had been upheld in a unanimous vote. She has repeatedly denied touching the former city manager inappropriately and has insisted she never licked his face or anyone else’s. But the ethics commission chose to go with the accounts of several bystanders who offered sworn testimony to the contrary and noted three other men testified Oakley had licked their faces in public without their consent.

Nancy Oakley resigned from her position on the Madeira Beach city commission days after a Florida Ethics Commission report recommended she be censured. (City of Madeira Beach)
“The act of licking a person on the face and neck is too unusual to be contrived by multiple witnesses and multiple victims,” administrative law judge Robert S. Cohen wrote in his final report. He recommended she be fined $5,000 and publicly censured by the governor for inappropriate behavior.
Oakley could not be reached for comment late Wednesday night. In her resignation letter, she continued to deny any wrongdoing and said she was only giving up her position in an attempt to quell the controversy.
“While the Commission on Ethics has made their decision, I maintain my innocence and am pursuing the paths of appeals available,” she wrote. “With that being said, it is time for us all to move on.”
Residents who spoke up at a special meeting of the Madeira Beach City Commission on Wednesday night seemed to agree. While some friends defended Oakley, who was not present, others accused her of giving the city a bad name.
“I am sick and tired of the embarrassing headlines created by the majority of this commission, and it is time for a change,” commented one woman who introduced herself as Helen Price.
Another Madeira Beach resident, Robert Preston, told the commission, “I would love to be part of a city that’s in the news for good things, not dirt and garbage.”
Though the face-licking episode allegedly took place in 2012, it took another five years for Crawford to file a complaint. According to a report prepared by the ethics commission, Crawford explained he had not initially reported Oakley for harassment because he feared he would lose his job. The following year, she chose not to run for reelection, and Crawford let the matter go, according to the Miami Herald.
After Oakley decided to seek office again in 2017, Crawford filed an official complaint. She won the race, and, in her first meeting back, suggested McGrady should be fired. A month after that, she was one of three commissioners who voted to suspend him for reasons that were not fully explained. He ultimately chose to resign rather than be fired, according to the Herald.
The investigation into Oakley’s misconduct led to a very public airing of Madeira Beach’s dirty laundry, the Tampa Bay Times reported in September. During one hearing, Oakley’s attorney began shouting at McGrady and insisting she had been having an affair with Crawford in 2012, when the two were married to different people. McGrady insisted it was untrue. Meanwhile, numerous friends of Oakley’s were called to the stand and subjected to extensive questioning about her drinking and whether she had ever been known to lick people’s faces.
Oakley testified she had drank “some beer” and possibly a cocktail before the alleged face-licking incident, the transcripts from the hearings show. She also acknowledged she had used profanity to demand that McGrady leave, explaining, “I didn’t think she needed to be there. I don’t like her. [ . . .] I think something was going on between the two of them.”
In her own testimony, McGrady told a different story, describing Oakley as “belligerent and intoxicated” and “stumbling all over the place,” while holding a Tervis tumbler filled with alcohol that she insisted be set up at her place on the dais.
“I’ve never seen anything like that in life and hopefully I’ll never see anything like it again,” she said, later explaining that she “got the impression that Commissioner Oakley was jealous of me somehow.”
Crawford also faced an ethics complaint of his own, the Times reported. His relationship with McGrady didn’t violate the city’s rules, but it did prompt the International City/County Management Association to ban him for life in 2016, after residents filed complaints. A letter to Madeira Beach’s then-mayor noted “it is highly inappropriate for a city manager to have a personal relationship with a subordinate employee,” and Crawford had recommended McGrady for raises and promotions while the two were in a relationship.
Separately, in December, the Florida Ethics Commission fined him $2,000 for accepting prohibited gifts from lobbyists, which consisted of discounted rent on condominiums he leased from local developers.
During cross-examination at one hearing, Oakley’s lawyer asked McGrady if she had ever told anyone about the alleged assault on her then-boss.
“Not about that incident, no,” McGrady replied. “I mean, she licked a lot of people, sir. So everyone kind of talked about the fact that she licked people. That’s what she did when she got drunk.”
A bullied boy named Trump was an honored guest at the State of the Union. He slept through it.
Joel Thrasymachus Dahl
To be fair, most kids that age would probably sleep through the SOTU address no matter who was giving it, but the optics of this are still hilariously bad.
A bullied boy named Trump was an honored guest at the State of the Union. He slept through it.
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, former Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and more have been caught dozing off during State of the Union addresses. (Allie Caren/The Washington Post)
For Joshua Trump, the 11-year-old who shares a last name with a president whose approval rating hovers around 40 percent, the past few years have been a nightmare.
Other students bullied the preteen so much over his surname that he had to be home-schooled. His parents told reporters that Joshua was sad all the time, a story that found its way to the ears of the first family, who seated Joshua two seats from Melania Trump during the State of the Union address Tuesday night.
And it is from that vaunted position that Joshua got what appeared to be the best sleep of his life — an open-mouthed snoozefest uninterrupted by bipartisan applause, flashing cameras, Nancy Pelosi’s clap or the oration of the leader of the free world.
President Trump brought a wide-ranging list of guests to the State of the Union, from a bullied 6th grader with his last name to officers and veterans. (Video: Jenny Starrs /Photo: Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)
It’s unclear when, exactly, Joshua fell asleep. During President Trump’s 82-minute speech, some camera angles swept over the crowd at select moments when everyone was standing and clapping — except for the blank space where Joshua should have been.
But an alert photographer appeared to catch the unalert preteen. In the photo, he’s sitting next to Grace Eline, a 10-year-old cancer survivor who, it should be noted, is wide awake. And two seats away, in clear shake-you-awake reach, is Melania Trump.
The dozing moment was not lost on the masses, who thought of Joshua Trump’s State of the Union slumber as either:
1) A symbol of just how fed up America is with partisan gridlock and political grandstanding that literally brought Washington to a standstill or
2) Adorable.
The first lady has made combating bullying like the kind Joshua faced one of her main priorities in the White House, the thrust of her “Be Best” initiative.
In a biography of Joshua, the White House said the sixth-grader is a fan of science, art and history and hopes to pursue a career that has something to do with animals.
Today, he is also well-rested.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/harvards-top-astronomer-says-an-alien-ship-may-be-among-us--and-he-doesnt-care-what-his-colleagues-think/2019/02/04/a5d70bb0-24d5-11e9-90cd-dedb0c92dc17_story.html?utm_term=.5313b8b168e6
Joel Thrasymachus DahlAs much as I love all things Sci-Fi, if this were aliens, I'd definitely be more than a bit nervous. Even if it weren't malicious, the prospect of E.T.'s head cold becoming the extinction-level super-virus for humans comes to mind.
Harvard’s top astronomer says an alien ship may be among us — and he doesn’t care what his colleagues think

Avi Loeb poses in the observatory near his office in Cambridge, Mass. His theory about an alien spaceship has made the rounds in the media and caused controversy in the academic community. (Adam Glanzman/For The Washington Post)
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — Before he started the whole alien spaceship thing last year, the chairman of Harvard University's astronomy department was known for public lectures on modesty. Personal modesty, which Avi Loeb said he learned growing up on a farm. And what Loeb calls "cosmic modesty" — the idea that it's arrogant to assume we are alone in the universe, or even a particularly special species.
You can find a poster for one of these lectures in Loeb's office today, though it's a bit lost among the clutter: photos of Loeb posing under the dome of Harvard's enormous 19th-century telescope; thank-you notes from elementary-school children; a framed interview he gave the New York Times in 2014; his books on the formation of galaxies; his face, again and again — a bespectacled man in his mid-50s with a perpetually satisfied smile.
Loeb stands beside his desk on the first morning of spring courses in a creaseless suit, stapling syllabi for his afternoon class. He points visitors to this and that on the wall. He mentions that four TV crews were in this office on the day in the fall when his spaceship theory went viral, and now five film companies are interested in making a movie about his life.
A neatly handwritten page of equations sits on the desk, on the edge closest to the guest chairs.
“Oh, this is something I did last night,” Loeb says. It’s a calculation, he explains, supporting his theory that an extraterrestrial spacecraft, or at least a piece of one, may at this moment be flying past the orbit of Jupiter.
Since publishing his controversial paper, Loeb has run a nearly nonstop media circuit, embracing the celebrity that comes from being perhaps the most academically distinguished E.T. enthusiast of his time — the top Harvard astronomer who suspects technology from another solar system just showed up at our door. And this, in turn, has left some of his peers nonplused — grumbling at what they see as a flimsy theory or bewildered as to why Harvard’s top astronomer won’t shut up about aliens.
What you can’t call Loeb is a crank. When astronomers in Hawaii stumbled across the first known interstellar object in late 2017 — a blip of light moving so fast past the sun that it could only have come from another star — Loeb had three decades of Ivy League professorship and hundreds of astronomical publications on his résumé, mostly to do with the nature of black holes and early galaxies and other subjects far from any tabloid shelf.
So when seemingly every astronomer on the planet was trying to figure out how the interstellar object (dubbed ‘Oumuamua, Hawaiian for “scout”) got to our remote patch of Milky Way, Loeb’s extraordinarily confident suggestion that it probably came from another civilization could not be easily dismissed.
“Considering an artificial origin, one possibility is that ‘Oumuamua” — pronounced Oh-mooah-mooah — “is a lightsail, floating in interstellar space as a debris from an advanced technological equipment,” Loeb wrote with his colleague Shmuel Bialy in Astrophysical Journal Letters in November — thrilling E.T. enthusiasts and upsetting the fragile orbits of space academia.
"'Oumuamua is not an alien spaceship, and the authors of the paper insult honest scientific inquiry to even suggest it," tweeted Paul M. Sutter, an astrophysicist at Ohio State University, shortly after the paper published.
“A shocking example of sensationalist, ill-motivated science,” theoretical astrophysicist Ethan Siegel wrote in Forbes. North Carolina State University astrophycisist Katie Mack suggested Loeb was trolling for publicity. “Sometimes you write a paper about something that you don’t believe to be true at all, just for the purpose of putting out there,” she told the Verge.
Most scientists besides Loeb assume ‘Oumuamua is some sort of rock, be it an asteroid ejected from some star in meltdown hundreds of millions of years ago, or an icy comet wandering the interstellar void. But it’s moving too fast for an inert rock, Loeb points out — zooming away from the sun as if something is pushing it from behind. And if it’s a comet spewing jets of steam, the limited observations astronomers made of it showed no sign.
Loeb argues that ‘Oumuamua’s behavior means it can’t be, as is commonly imagined, a clump of rock shaped like a long potato, but rather an object that’s very long and no more than 1 millimeter thick, perhaps like a kilometer-long obloid pancake — or a ship sail — so light and thin that sunlight is pushing it out of our solar system.
And while he’s not saying it’s definitely aliens, he is saying he can’t think of anything other than aliens that fits the data. And he’s saying that all over international news.
“Many people expected once there would be this publicity, I would back down,” Loeb says. “If someone shows me evidence to the contrary, I will immediately back down.”
In the meantime, he’s doubling down, hosting a Reddit AMA on “how the discovery of alien life in space will transform our life,” and constantly emailing his “friends and colleagues” with updates on all the reporters who are speaking to him.
In a matter of months, Loeb has become a one-man alternative to the dirge of terrestrial news.
“It changes your perception on reality, just knowing that we’re not alone,” he says. “We are fighting on borders, on resources. . . . It would make us feel part of planet Earth as a civilization rather than individual countries voting on Brexit.”
So now he is famous, styling himself as a truth-teller and risk-taker in an age of overly conservative, quiescent scientists.
“The mainstream approach [is] you can sort of drink your coffee in the morning and expect what you will find later on. It’s a stable lifestyle, but for me it resembles more the lifestyle of a business person rather than scientists,” he says.
“The worst thing that can happen to me is I would be relieved of my administrative duties, and that would give me even more time to focus on science,” Loeb adds. “All the titles I have, I can dial them back. In fact, I can dial myself back to the farm.”

Loeb: The existence of aliens “would make us feel part of planet earth as a civilization rather than individual countries voting on Brexit.” (Adam Glanzman/For The Washington Post)
Loeb grew up in an Israeli farming village. He would sit in the hills and read philosophy books imagining the broader universe, he says, a fascination that led him into academia and all the way to 'Oumuamua.
“I don’t have a class system in my head of academia being the elite,” he says, as he leads a reporter into the locked chamber of the Great Refractor — an enormous 19th-century telescope where he sometimes does photo ops. “I see it as a continuation of childhood curiosity — trying to understand what the world is like.”
He joined the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J., in the late 1980s (“Where Einstein used to be,” he notes) and later took a junior position in Harvard’s astronomy department, where “for 20 years no one had been promoted from within . . . They tenured me after three years.”)
As he tells it, his life story sounds like a cerebral version of “Forrest Gump” — Loeb always single-mindedly pursuing his science and intersecting with the giants of the field, whom he regularly name-drops. Stephen Hawking had dinner at his house. Steven Spielberg once asked him for movie tips. Russian billionaire Uri Milner once walked into his office and sat on the couch and asked him to help design humanity’s first interstellar spaceship — which he is now doing, with a research budget of $100 million and the endorsement of Mark Zuckerberg and the late Hawking.
Loeb mentions casually that when he was 24 years old he got a private audience with the famed physicist Freeman Dyson — and then pauses for effect beneath the 20-foot shaft of the Great Refractor, grinning until he realizes the reporter doesn’t know who Freeman Dyson is.
[UFOs are suddenly a serious news story. You can thank the guy from Blink-182 for that.]
At midday, Loeb leaves the telescope and his office and descends to a bare white classroom to introduce the basics of astrophysics to a dozen new students.
If he’s mastered the national news interview by now, his lecture begins a bit stilted. He looks down at the table as he speaks. He asks the freshmen at this most prestigious of universities to go around the table and list their hobbies.
Ten minutes later, Loeb goes off script.
“Did anyone hear the name ‘Oumuamua?” he asks. “What did it mean?”
Almost everyone nods, and freshman Matt Jacobsen, who came to Harvard from an Iowa farm town, volunteers quietly: “There was speculation that it was from another civilization.”
“Who made that speculation?” Loeb asks, smiling.
There’s an awkward silence in the room, and then Jacobsen cries, “Was it you? Oh, my gosh!” and the professor smiles wider.
Correction: An earlier version of this story misspelled film director Steven Spielberg’s name.
Will the media ever figure out how to cover Trump?
Will the media ever figure out how to cover Trump?

President Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House in October. (Calla Kessler/The Washington Post)
Jill Abramson is a journalist and author of the new book “Merchants of Truth.”
The news media’s collective shock that Donald Trump won in 2016 was evidence of how out of touch most reporters were with the less affluent, less educated, rural parts of the country, where white voter rage galvanized into votes that made him the 45th president. In the days after the election, there was anguished self-examination in many newsrooms and vows to cover the parts of the United States that had been mistakenly overlooked.
But more than two years later, the same question bedevils journalism: Can our tribe cover their tribe?
The president does have his amen corner on right-wing talk radio, Fox News and Breitbart, megaphones that help keep his base rock solid and reticulate his warped version of the facts and truth. But in the rest of the news media, there is little evidence that reporters have fulfilled their pledge to report on and reflect the interests and values of the people who voted for him. There have been some good dispatches from the heartland, but too often what is published amounts to the proverbial “toe touch in Appalachia.”
I was powerfully moved by a recent article in the New Yorker about journalism by LBJ biographer Robert Caro. He described how he couldn’t really understand President Lyndon B. Johnson’s native Texas Hill Country until he and his wife actually moved there from New York City for three years. The locals had a derisive name for the reporters who parachuted in and out: “portable journalists.” There are great reporters who defy this description.
The rhythm of the Internet has made spending a week reporting a story a rare luxury. But our cocooning on the liberal coasts has intensified because of other factors in the past decade. One is the virtual disappearance of local newspapers, their business models irrevocably broken by the disappearance of print advertising. The Cincinnati Post shuttered in 2007, the Kansas City Kansan two years later — just two of hundreds of local papers in Red America that have merged or closed. Researching my book “Merchants of Truth,” I interviewed reporters from the Denver Post and St. Paul Pioneer Press who were protesting outside Alden Global Capital, the Manhattan vulture firm that had acquired the papers and gutted their newsrooms.
With the possible exception of the Wall Street Journal, the most influential national papers reflect the values of the cities where they are headquartered, New York and Washington. Politico published maps of the ideological clustering of the top newsrooms. In the same article, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver pointed out, “As of 2013, only 7 percent of [journalists] identified as Republicans.” Does this contribute to groupthink? Sure it does.
The rise of all digital news organizations has actually intensified the clustering. Almost all are in New York, Washington, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. Some reporters never leave their screens to do on-the-ground reporting. But other outlets, including Vice News, do bring their audience up close to the different and difficult realities of life in rural America.
Reporters who have contracts with MSNBC and CNN sometimes appear on panels, wedged between Democratic partisans and prosecutors who have already judged the president guilty of grave crimes. They blend and create an appearance of bias. It’s hard for viewers to keep them straight. Twitter is just an open invitation for politically inflamed hyperbole.
On the whole, enterprise reporting on President Trump has been excellent. To cover him, reporters need to be smart about politics, policy and international affairs, but also students of criminal law and procedure. It’s a harder job than it’s ever been. Think how much less we would know about special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s probe into Russian meddling in 2016 without the deep investigations published by the Times and The Post.
The president is a master at media manipulation, a talent gained on “The Apprentice.” So determined to dominate each news cycle, he seamlessly abandons his preference for “Fox & Friends” to give occasional interviews, such as the one he did Thursday with the Times, to the very places he has criticized in more than 1,000 tweets, including using the term “fake news” hundreds of times.
Although editors have pledged to dial back the reactive coverage that revolves around the president’s words and tweets, they remain addicted. After all, they are swimming in Trump-generated revenue, clicks and ratings. “I remain astonished by the ability of this former reality TV star to be our assignment editor,” bemoaned Kyle Pope, editor of the Columbia Journalism Review.
One way out of the reactive cycle is to report the story from the places where the pro-Trump and Trump-curious live, to cover the facts and truths of their lives. The Caro approach offers a way forward for news organizations to find contributors from, or place correspondents in, the communities that support the president, to soak up the sense and sensibility of under-covered America. That way, we mix with the other tribe. The 2020 campaign, already upon us, offers a great opportunity to fulfill the pledge we made after the last election.
The Moth | Stories | True Justice
Joel Thrasymachus DahlShared for Scott. Public Defender's moth story that I found pretty compelling.
Sheila Calloway searches for fairness and empathy in the justice system.
Listen Now Add to Playlist
Wielding Rocks and Knives, Arizonans Attack Self-Driving Cars
CHANDLER, Ariz. — The assailant slipped out of a park around noon one day in October, zeroing in on his target, which was idling at a nearby intersection — a self-driving van operated by Waymo, the driverless-car company spun out of Google.
He carried out his attack with an unidentified sharp object, swiftly slashing one of the tires. The suspect, identified as a white man in his 20s, then melted into the neighborhood on foot.
The slashing was one of nearly two dozen attacks on driverless vehicles over the past two years in Chandler, a city near Phoenix where Waymo started testing its vans in 2017. In ways large and small, the city has had an early look at public misgivings over the rise of artificial intelligence, with city officials hearing complaints about everything from safety to possible job losses.
Some people have pelted Waymo vans with rocks, according to police reports. Others have repeatedly tried to run the vehicles off the road. One woman screamed at one of the vans, telling it to get out of her suburban neighborhood. A man pulled up alongside a Waymo vehicle and threatened the employee riding inside with a piece of PVC pipe.
In one of the more harrowing episodes, a man waved a .22-caliber revolver at a Waymo vehicle and the emergency backup driver at the wheel. He told the police that he “despises” driverless cars, referring to the killing of a female pedestrian in March in nearby Tempe by a self-driving Uber car.
“There are other places they can test,” said Erik O’Polka, 37, who was issued a warning by the police in November after multiple reports that his Jeep Wrangler had tried to run Waymo vans off the road — in one case, driving head-on toward one of the self-driving vehicles until it was forced to come to an abrupt stop.
His wife, Elizabeth, 35, admitted in an interview that her husband “finds it entertaining to brake hard” in front of the self-driving vans, and that she herself “may have forced them to pull over” so she could yell at them to get out of their neighborhood. The trouble started, the couple said, when their 10-year-old son was nearly hit by one of the vehicles while he was playing in a nearby cul-de-sac.
“They said they need real-world examples, but I don’t want to be their real-world mistake,” said Mr. O’Polka, who runs his own company providing information technology to small businesses.
“They didn’t ask us if we wanted to be part of their beta test,” added his wife, who helps run the business.
At least 21 such attacks have been leveled at Waymo vans in Chandler, as first reported by The Arizona Republic. Some analysts say they expect more such behavior as the nation moves into a broader discussion about the potential for driverless cars to unleash colossal changes in American society. The debate touches on fears ranging from eliminating jobs for drivers to ceding control over mobility to autonomous vehicles.
“People are lashing out justifiably," said Douglas Rushkoff, a media theorist at City University of New York and author of the book “Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus.” He likened driverless cars to robotic incarnations of scabs — workers who refuse to join strikes or who take the place of those on strike.
“There’s a growing sense that the giant corporations honing driverless technologies do not have our best interests at heart,” Mr. Rushkoff said. “Just think about the humans inside these vehicles, who are essentially training the artificial intelligence that will replace them.”
The emergency drivers in the Waymo vans that were attacked in various cases told the Chandler police that the company preferred not to pursue prosecution of the assailants.
In some of their reports, police officers also said Waymo was often unwilling to provide video of the attacks. In one case, a Waymo employee told the police they would need a warrant to obtain video recorded by the company’s vehicles.
Officer William Johnson of the Chandler Police Department described in a June report how the driver of a Chrysler PT Cruiser wove between lanes of traffic while taunting a Waymo van.
A manager at Waymo showed video images of the incident to Officer Johnson but did not allow the police to keep them for a more thorough investigation. According to Officer Johnson’s report, the manager said that the company did not want to pursue the matter, emphasizing that Waymo was worried about disruptions of its testing in Chandler.
The report said Waymo was concerned about the effect the attacks were having on its emergency drivers, who are intended to remain in monitoring mode. “The behavior is causing the drivers to resume manual mode over the automated mode because of concerns about what the driver of the other vehicle may do,” Officer Johnson wrote.
In a statement, a Waymo spokeswoman said the attacks involved only a small fraction of the more than 25,000 miles that the company’s vans log every day in Arizona.
“Safety is the core of everything we do, which means that keeping our drivers, our riders, and the public safe is our top priority,” said Alexis Georgeson, the Waymo spokeswoman. “Over the past two years, we've found Arizonans to be welcoming and excited by the potential of this technology to make our roads safer.”
Ms. Georgeson said the company took the safety of its emergency drivers seriously and disputed claims that Waymo was trying to avoid bad publicity by opting against pursuing criminal charges.
“We report incidents we deem to pose a danger and we have provided photos and videos to local law enforcement when reporting these acts of vandalism or assault,” Ms. Georgeson said. “We support our drivers and engage in cases where an act of vandalism has been perpetrated against us.”
The authorities in Chandler and elsewhere in Arizona remain gladly open to Waymo and other driverless-car companies. Rob Antoniak, the chief operating officer of Valley Metro, which helps oversee the Phoenix metropolitan area’s transit system, said on Twitter that Arizona was still welcoming autonomous cars with “open arms” despite the attacks on Waymo vans.
“Don't let individual criminals throwing rocks or slashing tires derail efforts to drive the future of transportation,” Mr. Antoniak said.
But the official welcome mat has failed to persuade the naysayers.
One of them, Charles Pinkham, 37, was standing in the street in front of a Waymo vehicle in Chandler one evening in August when he was approached by the police.
“Pinkham was heavily intoxicated, and his demeanor varied from calm to belligerent and agitated during my contact with him,” Officer Richard Rimbach wrote in his report. “He stated he was sick and tired of the Waymo vehicles driving in his neighborhood, and apparently thought the best idea to resolve this was to stand in front of these vehicles.”
It worked, apparently. The Waymo employee inside the van, Candice Dunson, opted against filing charges and told the police that the company preferred to stop routing vehicles to the area.
Mr. Pinkham got a warning. The van moved on.
Jonathan Higuera contributed reporting. Alain Delaquérière and Jack Begg contributed research.
There Is Now an Earthquake Early Warning App for Los Angeles

Getting an immediate warning on your phone that an earthquake is about to begin is now an option in the Los Angeles County area with the new ShakeAlertLA app. Finally, a use for my phone.
The app is available for download for Apple and Android phones, ABC News reports, and is capable of alerting people up to twenty seconds before a quake hits. That may not sound like much, but it can be the difference between life and death.

California began using an earthquake warning system this summer that notifies citizens of seismic…
Read more ReadPreviously, the system has only been available to a limited group of beta testers, and had seen some satisfactory results in 2018. The app significantly expands access to the system. Warnings are only issued when the magnitude of the quake is 5.0 or larger and when they will be felt in the Los Angeles area. The notification is fairly intense, but that may be what you need to read to get moving:
“EARTHQUAKE, EARTHQUAKE, EXPECT STRONG SHAKING. DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON. PROTECT YOURSELF NOW!”
The app was originally developed with the intention of expanding to the entire West coast, but the federal budget for creating the sensor network was eliminated. However, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has announced plans to expand again after the alert system is tested at the regional level, according to the Curbed Los Angeles. The app was made possible in LA through a partnership with the city, the Annenberg Foundation, and AT&T.
In addition to providing a warning, the app also offers checklists for an earthquake survival kit, and what else you can do to prepare—or recover. The app doesn’t need to be open to send you a notification, but it does track your movements. It basically has to in order to know if you’re in a danger zone. If you’re able to take advantage of this service, you should.
And if you’re in an area that could use it, demand it: 20 seconds of warning might be exactly what you need. Contact local representatives; the implementation in Los Angeles couldn’t have happened without the support of LA Mayor Eric Garcetti. The Los Angeles Times also reports that Early Warnings Lab, which also works with the USGS, is hoping to release their version of a similar app called QuakeAlert to serve statewide. You can register with them to become a potential beta tester. The more people who are interested, the more likely it is that systems like these will be completed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/magazine/wp/2018/12/30/feature/dave-barrys-year-in-review-2018/?utm_term=.54ed5661c757
Dave Barry’s Year in Review 2018
We can summarize 2018 in two words:
It boofed.
We’re not 100 percent sure what “boofing” is, despite the fact that this very issue was discussed in a hearing of the United States Senate Judiciary Committee. All we know for certain about boofing is that it is distasteful and stupid.
As was 2018.
In spades.
What made this year so awful? We could list many factors, including natural disasters, man-made atrocities, the utter depravity of our national political discourse and the loss of Aretha Franklin. Instead we’ll cite one event that, while minor, epitomizes 2018: the debut of “Dr. Pimple Popper.” This is a cable TV reality show featuring high-definition slo-mo close-up videos of a California dermatologist performing seriously disgusting procedures on individuals with zits the size of mature cantaloupes. You might ask, “Who on Earth would voluntarily watch that?” The answer, in 2018, was: MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. That is the state of our culture. We can only imagine what new reality shows lie ahead. We would not rule out “Dr. Butt Wiper” or “People Blow Their Noses Directly Onto the Camera Lens.”
Is there anything good we can say about 2018? Only this: It got us out of 2017. But even that didn’t work out as we hoped.
As you recall, we, as a nation, spent all of 2017 obsessing over 2016: the election, the Russians, the emails, the Mueller probe, the Russians, the Russians, the Russians. … That was all we heard about, day after soul-crushing day, for the entire year.
So when 2018 finally dawned, we were desperately hoping for change. It was a new year, a chance for the nation to break out of the endless, pointless barrage of charges and countercharges, to move past the vicious, hate-filled hyperpartisan spew of name-calling and petty point-scoring, to end the 24/7 cycle of media hysteria, to look forward and begin to tackle the many critical issues facing the nation, the most important of which turned out to be …
… the 2016 election.
Yes. We could not escape it. We were like Bill Murray in “Groundhog Day,” except that when our clock-radio went off, instead of Sonny and Cher singing “I Got You Babe,” we awoke to still MORE talk of Russians and emails; MORE childish semiliterate presidential tweets about FAKE NEWS and Crooked Hillary; MORE freakouts by cable TV panelists predicting that — forget about the previous 300 times they made the same prediction — THIS time impeachment was IMMINENT, PEOPLE. IMMINENT!!
Meet the new year: same as the old year.
So at some point during 2018, normal, non-Beltway-dwelling Americans simply stopped paying attention to current events. Every now and then we’d tune in to a cable TV news show to see what kinds of issues our nation’s elite political/media class was grappling with, and we’d see a headline like “PORN STAR STORMY DANIELS: TRUMP DIDN’T USE A CONDOM.”
That was when “Dr. Pimple Popper” started to look pretty good.
So we’re very glad that 2018 is finally over. Once again we’re on the cusp of a new year, another chance for change. And once again, we find ourselves feeling stirrings of hope — hope that the coming year really will be better. Why do we feel this way? Why, despite all our past disappointments, do we believe things really can improve? Because we are morons, apparently.
So let’s not get too excited about 2019. Our emotional state, going forward, should be hopelessness leavened with despair, as we can see when we look back at the grotesque boof-a-palooza that was 2018, starting with …
JANUARY
… which sees world tensions rise when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un states that he has a nuclear missile launch button on his desk. This leaves U.S. Commander in Chief Donald Trump with no viable military option but to fire up his Random Capitalizer App and tweet “I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his,” thereby leaving no doubt as to which leader is more secure regarding the size of his button. In an apparent effort to reassure everyone on his mental state, the president also issues a tweet in which he describes himself as “genius….and a very stable genius at that!” Which is EXACTLY HOW VERY STABLE GENIUSES TALK, OKAY??
The intellectual level of the national discourse soars even higher when it is reported that, during an Oval Office meeting on immigration reform, the president referred to some poorer nations as “s—holes.” This upsets many people, especially the frowny panelpersons of CNN, who find the word “s—hole” so deeply offensive that they repeat it roughly 15 times per hour for a solid week. Washington is consumed by a heated debate over what, exactly, the president said; the tone and substance of this debate are reflected in this actual sentence from a Washington Post story: “Three White House officials said [Sen. David] Perdue and [Sen. Tom] Cotton told the White House that they heard ‘s—house’ rather than ‘s—hole,’ allowing them to deny the president’s comments on television over the weekend.” (This is known in legal circles as the “s—house defense.”)
Meanwhile the Wall Street Journal reports that shortly before the 2016 presidential election, Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, arranged a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels so she would keep quiet about an alleged act of executive outreach with Trump in 2006. Cohen responds that “President Trump once again vehemently denies any such occurrence, as has Ms. Daniels.” So that settles THAT.
A congressional squabble shuts down the federal government for three days, but what with the intense media focus on the s—hole and porn star issues, hardly anybody notices.
In non-s—hole news, the residents of Hawaii experience an exciting Saturday morning when they receive the following message on their phones from the state’s Emergency Management Agency: “BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.” Hawaii’s governor, David Ige, is quickly informed that it’s a false alarm, but 17 extremely tense minutes go by before he gets the word out on social media. Asked later about the delay, he says — we are not making this quote up — “I have to confess that I don’t know my Twitter account logons and the passwords.” This statement arouses powerful feelings of longing among high-level Trump advisers.
The fiasco leads to the resignation of the head of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, who immediately accepts a position as director of pet transportation for United Airlines.
In youth fads, the American Association of Poison Control Centers continues to receive reports of young people suffering ill effects from eating Tide detergent pods. Asked to explain why young people would persist in eating something that tastes terrible and makes them sick, an AAPCC spokesperson says, “As far as we can determine, it’s because they’re stupid.”
Speaking of stupid, in …
FEBRUARY
… with yet another government shutdown looming, Congress, whose irresponsible spending practices have put the nation on the road to fiscal disaster, faces a choice. It can either:
1. Continue to spend huge amounts of money that we don’t have, or
2. Not.
After much late-night drama, Congress agrees on a compromise deal under which it will continue to spend huge amounts of money that we don’t have. This display of leadership solves the budget problem permanently until March, when Congress will once again tackle the complex problem of government spending.
But the big story in Washington is the hotly debated release by congressional Republicans of the so-called “Nunes memo,” which, depending on which cable news network you listen to, either does or does not prove that the FBI, in its investigation of possible Russian influence on the 2016 election, abused the FISA process when it used the so-called “Steele dossier” — which was prepared by Fusion GPS, a research firm originally hired by the Washington Free Beacon, a conservative news outlet, to investigate Trump, but dropped by that organization when Trump was nominated, then hired by an attorney for the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee, after which Fusion hired former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele as an investigator — to obtain a warrant to wiretap Carter Page, a foreign policy adviser in the Trump campaign who allegedly … Hey, wake up! This is important! Also there’s a Democratic counter-memo!
On the Stormy Daniels front, Michael Cohen acknowledges that he did, in fact, pay $130,000 to the porn actress, but he used his own money and the Trump campaign had nothing to do with it and it was all totally legit. So that settles THAT.
In sports, the 2018 Winter Olympics get underway in PyeongChang, South Korea, with the historic Opening Ceremonies highlighted by the release of 25 doves, which are immediately shot down and consumed by the North Korean men’s biathlon team.
In domestic sports, the Eagles defeat the Patriots to win their first Super Bowl, and huge crowds of joyous Philadelphia fans celebrate by destroying downtown Boston.
No, that would actually make sense. In fact the Philadelphia fans spend the night destroying their own city, then head home for a hearty breakfast of Tide Pods.
Speaking of classy behavior, in …
MARCH
… Secretary of State Rex Tillerson learns that President Trump has fired him when, during an official visit to Africa, he is ejected from his State Department plane at 35,000 feet.
No, seriously, Tillerson learns of his firing via a presidential tweet, which says: “Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, will become our new Secretary of State. He will do a fantastic job! Thank you to Rex Tillerson for his service!”
So midair ejection would actually have been more dignified.
Speaking of air travel: United Airlines, which received some unfortunate publicity in 2017 when it “reaccommodated” a 69-year-old man by dragging him, bleeding and screaming, off his flight, has an eventful week involving traveling dogs (these events actually happened):
• On Monday, a United attendant on a Houston-to-New York flight orders a passenger to stow a bag containing a French bulldog puppy, Kokito, in the overhead bin. This does not turn out well for Kokito.
• On Tuesday, a German shepherd named Irgo, whom United was supposed to fly to Kansas City, instead gets flown to … Japan! Meanwhile a Great Dane that United was supposed to fly to Japan winds up in Kansas City. It is probably a good thing that both of these breeds are too large for the overhead bin.
• On Thursday, a United flight from Newark to St. Louis is diverted when United realizes that a dog that was loaded onto the plane was supposed to go to Akron.
Responding to public outrage over these incidents, United Airlines issues an apology, but sends it to the wrong email address.
Speaking of incompetence: Congress averts yet another government shutdown by passing, with President Trump signing, a bill under which the government will — prepare to be shocked — spend a truly insane amount of money that it does not have. With the spending problem addressed, Washington then turns to more pressing matters, specifically the Stormy Daniels crisis, which escalates when Daniels files a lawsuit to invalidate her nondisclosure agreement on the grounds that Trump didn’t sign it. This issue dominates the news cycle, especially on CNN, which puts Daniels’s extremely outgoing lawyer, Michael Avenatti, on Full S—hole Rotation, which means he is featured on every CNN news program and also handles weather and sports updates.
Abroad, the Russian news agency Tass reports that Vladimir Putin, who campaigned on the theme “A Vote for Putin Is a Vote for Not Dying Under Mysterious Circumstances,” has been declared the winner of the 2018 Russian presidential election, as well as, in the interest of efficiency, the 2024 and 2030 elections.
In entertainment news, Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway, seeking to atone for the 2017 envelope fiasco, return to the Academy Awards stage and triumphantly announce that the winner of the Oscar for best picture is “Gone With the Wind.” Fortunately by then nobody is watching.
The fiascos continue in …
APRIL
… when the abandoned Chinese space station Tiangong-1, which has been anxiously watched by scientists as its orbit decayed, plunges back to Earth and, in a worst-case outcome, fails to land on attorney Michael Avenatti, thus enabling him to continue appearing on CNN more often than the Geico gecko.
Meanwhile President Trump, faced with — among other problems — a continuing immigration crisis, increased Russian aggression in Syria and a looming trade war with China, launches a barrage of assault tweets at what is clearly the biggest threat to the nation: Amazon.com. Trump is forced to back down when the retail giant threatens to suspend the White House’s Amazon Prime membership and cancel delivery of a large order placed by the Defense Department, including six nuclear submarines, two aircraft carriers and a missile defense system with a five-star average rating from other nations. (Disclosure: Amazon CEO Jeffrey P. Bezos owns The Washington Post.)
Responding to alleged Russian infiltration of Facebook and massive breaches of user data, the Senate Committee of Aging Senators Who Cannot Operate Their Own Cellphones Without the Assistance of Minions holds a hearing intended to answer such probing questions as:
• What IS Facebook, anyway?
• Where does it go when you turn off the computer?
• Is there a print version?
• Is Facebook the one with the video of a cat riding a dog?
• How the heck do you get a cat to do that, anyway?
Patiently attempting to answer these questions is Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who wears a suit and tie and does a solid job of impersonating a regular human, except for not blinking and at one point having a tentacle emerge briefly from his left ear.
Abroad, the big news is a historic summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. In what observers see as a major breakthrough, Kim agrees to sign a letter of agreement explicitly acknowledging, for the first time, that he has exactly the same hairstyle as Bert, of Bert and Ernie.
In sports, Patrick Reed wins the Masters Tournament, prompting jubilant Eagles fans to celebrate by destroying what little is left of Philadelphia.
Speaking of celebrations, in …
MAY
… the biggest story by far is the wedding of American ex-actress Meghan Markle to Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, who is in the direct line of succession to the British throne behind Prince Louis of Cambridge, who is behind Princess Charlotte of Cambridge, who is behind Prince George of Cambridge, who is behind Prince William, Duke of Cambridge, who is behind Charles, Prince of Wales, who is 70, but any year now could get his shot at becoming the anachronistic ceremonial figurehead of one of the world’s most second-rate powers. With the stakes so high, the media giddiness level soars to Defcon 1; the wedding cake alone gets more media coverage than Africa and global climate change combined.
In other international developments, hopes for a summit meeting between Kim Jong Un and President Trump soar when North Korea releases three American prisoners, only to be dashed when North Korea refuses to accept, in exchange, Stormy Daniels. Later in the month hopes soar again when North Korea announces that, as a good-faith gesture, it has destroyed its Punggye-ri nuclear test facility, only to be dashed again when satellite imagery of the explosion reveals that what the rogue nation actually blew up was a 2006 Hyundai Sonata with what a U.S. intelligence source describes as “really bald tires.”
Meanwhile Trump announces that the United States will withdraw from the 2015 multination nuclear deal with Iran on the grounds that (1) it is deeply flawed and (2) he does not own any golf courses there.
In entertainment news, Roseanne Barr sends out a tasteless, idiotic tweet and immediately has her network show canceled, thereby illustrating a key difference between being a sitcom star and being president of the United States.
In sports, the wettest Kentucky Derby in history is won by the favorite horse, Justify, after the rest of the field is eaten by sharks.
Speaking of eating, in …
JUNE
… President Trump flies to Quebec to attend the G-7 summit. Hopes that the meeting will produce a historic agreement on global climate change, or at least a nice group photo, are dashed when, during dinner, Trump becomes embroiled in a heated policy disagreement with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom over the issue of ketchup.
From Canada the president flies to Singapore for the on-again, off-again, now on-again historic summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. This meeting is more productive, ending with the two leaders signing a letter of agreement in which North Korea promises to think seriously about denuclearizing, in exchange for the formula for pumpkin spice latte.
On the domestic front, the president is forced to reverse his administration’s policy on separating immigrant children from their parents in response to a widespread and passionate international outpouring of criticism from his wife, Melania. Trump insists, however, that he remains “as committed as ever to protecting our borders by building a purely imaginary wall.”
In other domestic news, Sen. Chuck “The Human Bandwagon” Schumer, citing studies showing that every living American adult except Mitt Romney has tried pot, introduces a bill that would decriminalize marijuana at the federal level and “create a massive bureaucracy tasked with wasting millions of dollars on things like bong-safety regulations.” The legislation would also create a trust fund under which a percentage of the federal tax revenue raised from marijuana sales would be set aside specifically to buy Cheez-Its.
Meanwhile, Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy announces his decision to retire, creating an important opportunity for the nation’s political leaders to demonstrate that, although the public might have a low opinion of them as a group, it is nowhere near low enough.
In sports, the World Cup soccer tournament opens in Moscow with a beaming Vladimir Putin looking on as the host Russian team coasts to a 5-0 victory over a Saudi Arabian team whose players appear distracted by the presence directly behind their bench of what the Russians insist is a “strictly ceremonial” tank.
Speaking of ceremony, in …
JULY
… President Trump continues to have exciting foreign-policy adventures, starting with a trip to Brussels for a NATO summit, which gets off to a rocky start but settles down once the president’s advisers are able to communicate to him, via frantic hand signals, that NATO is actually our side. From there the president travels to Britain, where he has tea with the Queen and makes what he later tells the press is “a very generous offer, believe me, VERY generous” for the Crown Jewels.
Then it’s on to Finland for a summit meeting with Vladimir Putin. At a news conference afterward, the president tells reporters that Putin — and if we can’t trust Vladimir Putin, whom can we trust? — “strongly” denies interfering in the 2016 U.S. election. Trump adds that he, personally, sees no reason why Russia would interfere. This comes as a surprise to the U.S. intelligence community and pretty much everybody else with the IQ of cottage cheese or higher. After a firestorm of criticism, Trump clarifies his remarks, explaining that he actually meant to say that he sees no reason why Russia WOULDN’T interfere. Thus the pesky issue of the 2016 election is finally laid to rest.
In domestic news, the president nominates Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Accepting the nomination, Kavanaugh says: “If confirmed by the Senate, I pledge to give full and fair consideration to every case brought before me. Also every keg.” For their part, Senate Democrats release a statement promising to “consider Judge Kavanaugh’s qualifications in good faith and with open minds,” adding, “obviously we are lying.”
In state news, Colorado state legislators, fired up by the Chuck Schumer decriminalization bill, unanimously vote to legalize marijuana, only to be informed that marijuana has been legal in Colorado since 2012. After enjoying a hearty laugh, the legislators unanimously vote to order 300 large pizzas.
Meanwhile Seattle becomes the first major U.S. city to ban plastic straws and utensils in all restaurants. San Francisco, sensing a threat to its status as front-runner in the Progressivelympics, responds by banning food and beverages in all restaurants.
In financial news, Facebook stock drops more than $100 billion in a single day — the greatest single-day loss in stock-market history — after the company releases a quarterly report revealing that many people have trouble distinguishing between the “wow” emoji and the “sad” emoji. Despite this setback Facebook is still worth way more than General Motors and most other American companies that make actual things.
In sports, France defeats Croatia to win the World Cup. Jubilant Eagles fans, with nothing left in Philadelphia to destroy, lay waste to Delaware.
Speaking of defeats, in …
AUGUST
… a Virginia jury finds former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort guilty of tax evasion, bank fraud and having a name that can be rearranged to spell “Fart Upon Lama.” Only minutes later, Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleads guilty in New York to various charges, including arranging hush-money payments in 2016 to Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal “at the direction of a candidate for federal office” who is not named but was obviously Bernie Sanders.
No, seriously, the candidate was obviously Trump. Some of the hush money was reportedly paid by the company that owns the National Enquirer at the direction of its CEO, whose name — we swear we are not making this up — is David Pecker (which can be rearranged to spell “David Pecker”).
The Manafort-Cohen story gets massive coverage on CNN and MSNBC, with hordes of joyful panelists celebrating the now-inevitable impeachment of Trump by dancing around the studio singing “Ding Dong, the Witch Is Dead.” For its part, Fox News presents a timely investigative series on preventing salamander-transmitted diseases.
In a coordinated nationwide response to Trump’s repeated attacks on the press, sternly worded editorials rebuking the president are published in more than 300 newspapers, with a combined editorial-page readership estimated at nearly 14 people. For his part, CNN’s Jim Acosta courageously confronts White House press secretary Sarah Sanders over this issue, despite the very real risk that he will have to feature himself prominently in his report on this harrowing incident.
In business news, Apple becomes the first publicly traded U.S. company to be worth $1 trillion, thanks to its shrewd business model of constantly coming out with costly new products that require costly chargers that are completely different from all the costly Apple chargers you already have, and sometimes spontaneously mutate overnight in such a way as to require even newer and costlier Apple chargers.
Speaking of electricity, in …
SEPTEMBER
… Washington is atingle with a level of excitement that can only result from a clash of two high-voltage personalities: Chuck Grassley and Dianne Feinstein, the chairman and ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, both having served in the Senate since shortly before the Big Bang. The committee holds two hearings on the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh, the second devoted to explosive allegations contained in a letter that was delivered back in July to Feinstein, who, what with one thing and another, failed to mention it until September. The nation watches, riveted, as committee members hear more than seven hours of emotional testimony by Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, at the end of which the nation has learned the following facts:
1. The senators have no idea what, if anything, actually happened.
2. Nor do they care.
3. The truth is utterly irrelevant to them.
4. They all decided long ago how they were going to vote, based entirely on political calculations.
5. Given exactly the same testimony but different political circumstances, every single senator would passionately espouse the position diametrically opposite the one he or she is passionately espousing now.
6. Brett Kavanaugh really likes beer.
In other political news, the New York Times publishes an anonymous op-ed allegedly written by a “senior administration official” who is harshly critical of President Trump. Despite intense pressure, the Times refuses to reveal the author’s identity, although linguistics experts see a possible clue in the fact that the column twice refers to Trump as “my husband.”
Meanwhile the president addresses the United Nations General Assembly, declaring that his administration “has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country.” The audience reacts with laughter, which the president’s advisers assure him is how world leaders traditionally show respect. Fox News confirms this.
In sports, Tiger Woods wins the PGA Tour Championship, his first tour win since 2013. The Maryland National Guard is called out to defend Baltimore from the advancing army of jubilant Eagles fans.
Speaking of wins, in …
OCTOBER
… the Senate approves the Kavanaugh nomination by a vote of 50 to 48, with Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski voting “present” and Chuck Schumer voting “extra cheese.”
The New York Times, in a major investigative story, asserts that Donald Trump amassed much of his fortune through “dubious tax schemes,” including a $723 million deduction in 1993 for what was described in Trump’s federal tax return as “croissants.” Trump denounces the Times story as FAKE NEWS, asserting that the deduction “was actually for a range of pastries.” Fox News confirms this.
In other executive action, the president hosts Kanye West in the Oval Office, where the rapper/producer/entrepreneur engages in a freewheeling, wide-ranging exchange of views with himself, then inadvertently launches a nuclear strike against Portugal before returning to his home dimension. The president also finds time in his schedule to initiate a Twitter beef with Stormy Daniels by referring to her in a tweet as “Horseface.” Daniels responds with a tweet mocking the “Tiny” size of the president’s legacy. This exchange dominates several news cycles but, incredibly, does not prove to be the low point of the month.
Tension mounts when explosive devices are mailed to high-profile Trump critics, including Barack Obama and the Clintons. After an intensive nationwide manhunt, federal authorities arrest a man who has been living and driving around in a van plastered with images clearly broadcasting the message, “I AM A DANGEROUSLY CRAZY PERSON,” but since he was doing this in South Florida nobody noticed.
An already bad month gets exponentially worse when a gunman shouting anti-Semitic epithets opens fire in a Pittsburgh synagogue. It is an atrocity so horrific, and so shocking, that nearly three minutes pass before people start using it as a club to bludgeon those with whom they disagree politically.
In sports, the nation rejoices as, for the ninth consecutive year, some team other than the New York Yankees wins the World Series. Atlanta is evacuated when troops are unable to halt the relentless advance of jubilant Eagles fans.
Speaking of looming menaces, in …
NOVEMBER
… the nation braces for what political analysts agree will be the most important midterm elections since the dawn of time. Voters prepare for the big day by binge-watching Netflix, because regular TV has turned into a gushing sewer of political attack ads apparently created by and for dimwitted 4-year-olds.
President Trump hits the campaign trail to warn voters that if Democrats are elected there will be nobody to protect the nation from a deadly caravan of alleged Hondurans moving relentlessly toward the U.S. border at approximately the speed of a senior golf foursome. This caravan, according to the president, contains gang members, diseases, diseased gang members, Middle Easterners, spies and diseased Middle Eastern spy gang members carrying what Trump claims — and Fox News confirms — is “a 200-foot-long atomic switchblade.” U.S. troops head for the border, having been ordered there by the president, but only after he was informed by military advisers that the Rio Grande is too shallow for aircraft carriers.
For their part, the Democrats appeal to voters with a three-pronged message:
Prong One: The Democrats are the party of fairness, diversity and inclusion.
Prong Two: Anybody who disagrees with the Democrats about anything is Hitler.
Prong Three: But more racist.
The election goes smoothly, except of course in Florida, which should seriously consider outsourcing all of its government functions to a competent organization, such as Montana. As usual the most confused county in Florida is Broward — often called “the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency of counties” — which to this day is not 100 percent certain how it voted in Dewey vs. Truman.
Nationwide, however, it is clear the voters have given the Democrats control of the House while leaving the Republicans in control of the Senate, thereby guaranteeing that for the next two years Congress will accomplish nothing, which may well be what the voters intended.
The day after the election Jeff Sessions resigns as attorney general upon learning that his office has been relocated, in what the White House describes as a “security measure,” to the men’s restroom of a Kwik Mart in Frederick, Md.
Meanwhile the ongoing saga that is “The Jim Acosta Story, Starring Jim Acosta as Jim Acosta” takes a thrilling turn when Jim gets into a dramatic struggle with a White House intern over a microphone. The Trump administration, always looking for ways to make a stupid situation even stupider, suspends Jim’s press pass and releases a video that somebody apparently doctored to make it appear more violent by splicing in the shower scene from “Psycho.”
Speaking of violence: The president, addressing the question of whether Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had knowledge of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in a Saudi consulate by agents of the Saudi government, releases a statement, which he apparently typed with his own thumbs, stating, “maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!” So that settles THAT.
Abroad, intelligence satellite photographs reveal that 16 construction projects in North Korea — which the North Korean government claims are going to be Chipotle restaurants — in fact are missile bases. North Korea insists that these will be used “only for delivery orders.”
In business news, Amazon, after a much-publicized nationwide search, announces that it will locate new headquarters in Arlington, Va., and New York City, in return for tax breaks, infrastructure improvements, four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and replacement of the Statue of Liberty with a 340-foot-tall statue of Jeffrey Bezos naked.
As Thanksgiving approaches, two turkeys — named Peas and Carrots — are summoned to the White House, where the president, in keeping with a lighthearted Washington tradition, appoints them to high-level posts in the Justice Department. Two days later he fires Peas over what insiders describe as “policy differences.” Within minutes Peas is hired as a political analyst by MSNBC.
Meanwhile the American people observe the Thanksgiving holiday by reflecting on their many blessings, then assaulting each other over consumer electronic devices that are imperceptibly better than the ones they already have. While this is happening the federal government releases a report warning that climate change will have a catastrophic impact on the nation’s future, but because of all the sweet Black Friday deals nobody notices.
The month concludes on a positive note as NASA’s $850 million InSight space-probe lander, after a six-month interplanetary journey covering 301 million miles, touches down on the surface of Mars. It was supposed to go to Venus, but NASA used navigational data provided by United Airlines.
Speaking of mistakes, in …
DECEMBER
… President Trump heads to Argentina for the Group of 20 summit, which consists of the G-7 nations plus Russia, China, India, Argentina, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia, Microsoft, the Corleone family, Gryffindor and LeBron James. Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in an effort to end the escalating trade war, which is caused by China deliberately making cheap products that Americans want to buy. The two leaders reach an agreement under which Trump will hold off on imposing $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese goods, in return for which China will purchase a new Chevy Volt, nearly doubling that vehicle’s annual worldwide sales. In response, the Dow Jones industrial average soars, only to plunge again when financial analysts learn that China declined the premium-floor-mat option.
On the ever-changing personnel front, Trump announces that his nominee to replace Jeff Sessions as attorney general is “an excellent lawyer, I forget his name at the moment, but he’s terrific, believe me.” Fox News confirms this. To replace Nikki Haley as U.N. ambassador the president chooses Heather Nauert, but only after his advisers are able to convince him that Katniss Everdeen is a fictional character. Replacing John Kelly as White House chief of staff is Wayne Newton.
Meanwhile in a devastating blow to the U.S. humor industry, Michael Avenatti announces that he will not run for president. His departure narrows the potential Democratic field to pretty much every Democratic politician ever, including Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, somebody called “Beto” and the late Hubert Humphrey, all of whom believe Trump will be vulnerable in 2020, as confidently predicted by the many expert political observers who also confidently predicted Hillary Clinton’s presidency.
Fueling this confidence are reliable rumors swirling around Washington that special counsel Robert Mueller is about to do some major thing that, while not specified in the rumors, will definitely mean the downfall of Trump and THIS TIME IT IS REALLY HAPPENING, PEOPLE. In anticipation of this event, CNN unveils a special panelist desk that is the length of a regulation basketball court, providing the capability to have an unprecedented 170 panelists sitting side-by-side expressing outrage simultaneously, and bringing CNN one step closer to the day when it has more panelists than actual viewers.
All this happens as congressional Democrats prepare to take control of the House of Representatives, where they plan to implement an ambitious agenda focused on the No. 1 concern of the American people, which of course is …
The 2016 elections!
Meanwhile tension continues to build along the U.S.-Mexico border as American troops, originally deployed to protect the United States from the Honduran Death Caravan of Doom, are ordered to turn around and attempt to stop the vast horde of jubilant Eagles fans surging southward from what is left of San Diego.
In a disturbing display of U.S. vulnerability to cyberattacks, Russian hackers briefly gain control of NOEL666, the supercomputer that churns out the hundreds of virtually identical Hallmark Channel Christmas movies, and cause it to broadcast a movie titled “You Better Watch Out,” in which the male and female lead actors, instead of falling in love and getting married, become psychotic from eating tainted fruitcake and savagely murder their entire village with sharpened candy canes.
In a more positive story, NASA’s interplanetary InSight lander proves to be a technological success and an inspiration to all Americans, distracting us from our petty political squabbles and uniting us in admiration of the stunning pictures it transmits back to Earth from the Martian surface, including a remarkably clear image of what a NASA spokesperson says “appears to be a large mound of uncounted ballots from Broward County, Florida.”
The month ends on a troubling note when one of North Korea’s newly constructed Chipotle restaurants launches a ballistic missile carrying what military analysts say is a three-ton tactical beef burrito, which travels 4,600 miles before splashing into the Pacific Ocean just off the coast of Oahu, producing a tidal wave containing potentially dangerous levels of tomatillo chile salsa. The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency attempts to broadcast a text warning, but because of what an agency spokesperson says is “human error,” the message actually sent to all of the state’s residents reads HAPPY NEW YEAR.
Here’s hoping that the wish expressed by this erroneous HEMA message comes true. We would truly love for 2019 to be a happy year. Or at least a better year than 2018 was. It has to be better, right? How could it possibly be worse?
Please, put down the Tide Pod.















