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23 Sep 11:47

Residents of western Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico should watch the tropics closely this week (UPDATED 9:45AM Monday)

by Eric Berger

(9:45 CT Monday Update): We will see PTC classified at the top of the hour. We will have a post before 11 AM CT.

(2 PM CT Update): The disturbance we are going to be tracking is now known as Invest 97L, and there will likely be a bunch of additional data available to us later today.

Headlines

  • Confidence is increasing in the formation of a tropical system in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this week
  • Current conditions in the eastern Gulf of Mexico support the possible development of a powerful hurricane by Thursday or Friday
  • While confidence in a forecast track is rising, residents of the Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana all the way to Fort Meyers, Florida should pay heed
  • Given the uncertainty of timing, Florida could start to see impacts in as few as four days from this system

System status

We’ve been talking about the potential for a tropical storm to form in the northwest Caribbean Sea for days, and for the time being there’s still not much to look at on satellite. We’re still seeing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea, in the vicinity of Nicaragua. However, what has changed is that the models we trust the most are now pointing to a more or less similar outcome over the coming week. That is, we expect a tropical system to develop, and then move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by around Wednesday. And after that? Well, that’s what the rest of this post will discuss.

Tropical outlook for Sunday morning. (National Hurricane Center)

Track of this storm

All of our major model guidance now suggests that a tropical system will start to become better organized by Tuesday or Wednesday, with a center of low pressure forming near Cancun, Mexico, or the western tip of the island of Cuba. There is still some discrepancy in the timing and intensity, but we can have pretty high confidence in this outcome.

The timing of this does matter, as a more rapidly developing storm would likely ultimately track further to the east, which is to say toward the west coast of Florida; and a slower developing system has a better chance of going more due north, ultimately making landfall somewhere between the Louisiana delta and Florida panhandle.

Probability of a sub-1000 mb pressure center as of 2 am ET on Friday September 27. (Weather Bell)

If we look at the 06z run of the European ensemble model above, we can get a sense of the most likely locations where the center of this storm could go. Note that this forecast indicates a potential landfall on Friday, but depending on the forward speed of this system, we cannot rule out a tropical storm or hurricane reaching the coast as early as Thursday.

The other global model ensembles are not dissimilar to the European model shown above. Our best high resolution, operational models are starting to coalesce around a landfall somewhere between Destin, Florida, and Cedar Key, Florida. However given that a center of circulation has not formed, overall confidence in where precisely this storm will go about five days from now is necessarily low.

The most important message I want to leave readers with today is that residents of the Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana all the way to Fort Meyers, Florida, should be keeping tabs on this system over the next couple of days.

As a space guy, I’m also watching closely for impacts to NASA’s Crew-9 launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida, presently scheduled for Thursday afternoon.

What about its intensity?

Forecasting the intensity of a tropical system, of course, often more dicey than a track forecast. Because the storm has not been designated an “area of investigation,” or Invest, we do not have access to a suite of tropical-based models that are used to forecast intensity. So far the global models have been all over the place, ranging from tropical storms to a fairly powerful hurricane. However, these models typically do a poor job with intensity.

From a big picture standpoint, what concerns us here at The Eyewall is that there are no obvious things to slow this storm down. If it does start to develop a low pressure center by around Tuesday or Wednesday, then it would have two full days over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to intensify, and if conditions are right that offers plenty of time to blow up into a powerful hurricane.

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are well above the 26.5 degree Celsius threshold to form and strengthen tropical systems. (NOAA)

The sea surface temperatures in the vicinity of where this system should track are incredibly warm. This is partly because it is late September, and partly because of the background signal of climate change that has pushed oceanic temperatures, generally, to record highs. In addition, when we look at conditions beneath the surface, oceanic heat content is very high. This means that, as a storm churns north across the Gulf of Mexico, it will not necessarily be bringing cooler water to the surface. Deep oceanic heat is often a precursor to rapid intensification.

The oceanic heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is at record highs for this time of year. (Brian McNoldy)

Wind shear has been fairly high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the last several days, but this shear level is now trending lower. And if this pattern continues as expected, the environment for storm formation and strengthening should be neutral in terms of wind shear, if not even favorable. So we cannot really count on shear for assistance.

Perhaps dry air, particularly on the western flank of the storm, may play a role in inhibiting some development. However, when we stack up the extremely warm surface temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the shear environment, I have to believe that a hurricane is likely to form before landfall late this week. This is another reason for residents of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida to keep a close tab on things.

Some final thoughts

It’s still too early to say too much about impacts from this system. However, storm surge, wind damage, and inland flooding from rainfall are all on the table. Where these occur, of course, remains highly dependent upon the track.

Given the current trends, it is unlikely that we see a named storm develop before Tuesday or Wednesday. Waiting for a named storm, therefore, will not leave much time for preparation. Again, this is why we’re advising residents to keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days.

23 Sep 03:57

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Excel

by Zach Weinersmith


Click here to go see the bonus panel!

Hovertext:
Eff y'all, excel is a perfectly acceptable transitive verb. Spread the word.


Today's News:
23 Sep 03:55

New TTC initiative introduces personal fare inspector for every rider

by Leo Morgenstern

Toronto, ON – In an effort to reduce fare evasion, the Toronto Transit Commission has introduced a new initiative: personal fare inspectors for every rider. Using a Tinder-style app, every TTC rider will get to choose the Personal Fare Inspector (PFI) best suited to intimidate them into spending more money than people in almost any […]

The post New TTC initiative introduces personal fare inspector for every rider appeared first on The Beaverton.

22 Sep 21:05

NFL Sunday Ticket Allows Viewers To Simulcast Up To 4 Domestic Violence Trials At Once

by The Onion Staff

NEW YORK—Offering football fans the chance to catch every testimony and cross-examination without having to change the channel, NFL Sunday Ticket announced this week that it is now allowing viewers to simulcast up to four domestic violence trials at the same time. “It used to be that we would only have one or two big domestic violence trials with our players, but as the league has grown, fans started to complain that there were sometimes eight different trials they wanted to watch going on at the same time,” said NFL head of marketing Tim Ellis, adding that many fans want to catch local domestic violence trials outside of their market because it looks like a good matchup or has big fantasy implications. “It used to be that you’d be watching the defense on one trial as it tried to discredit the accuser and not realize you were missing a handgun being entered into evidence over on another channel, but with our new ‘NFL Grand Jury’ package on Sunday Ticket you can keep an eye on multiple trials at once and go full screen when the action heats up. It starts at $249.99 but that gets you hundreds of different domestic violence suits to choose from during the year, including civil suits, and the package covers related gun, drug, and reckless driving trials. It’s the best way to watch all the biggest stars in the NFL.” Ellis added that while Grand Jury subscribers will have access to almost every domestic violence trial, the package will not cover NFL Thursday Trials that are licensed exclusively to Amazon Prime.

The post NFL Sunday Ticket Allows Viewers To Simulcast Up To 4 Domestic Violence Trials At Once appeared first on The Onion.

22 Sep 15:55

In Prince’s funky name, amen.

geezerwench:

In Prince’s funky name, amen.

22 Sep 12:46

the-invisible-self: one-time-i-dreamt: I...

22 Sep 00:44

Increasing risk of a central or eastern U.S. Gulf Coast impact from a tropical system late this coming week

by Matt Lanza

Headlines

  • Odds of tropical development next week are increasing, likely beginning Tuesday or Wednesday.
  • There is a growing consensus among modeling that this system has the potential to strengthen a good bit as it comes northward and is likely to accelerate toward the central or eastern Gulf Coast late in the week.
  • The odds of a system getting buried in the Bay of Campeche are lessening.
  • The odds of an impact to Texas are lessening.
  • People on the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida should be following forecasts closely and beginning to think about their plans for the upcoming week should they need to evacuate or hunker down.

Odds of development increasing

The National Hurricane Center continues to raise the odds of tropical development over the next seven days. We’re now up to a 60 percent risk of development.

Tropical development odds continue to inch up, with development possibly initiating around Tuesday of this upcoming week. (NOAA NHC)

Again, this is a rather conservative view of things, and I anticipate we’ll see this continue to inch up today and tomorrow and push into the “2 day” development map tomorrow or Monday. Modeling is beginning to coalesce around the idea of development north of Honduras or just east of Belize, or on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan. The general theme of the models since yesterday has been to align more with the faster, stronger solutions which would be apt to bring a storm north or north-northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and toward the coast between Louisiana and Florida. There is still a good deal of uncertainty on specifics here, including whether or not it develops. There is still a minority of ensemble members in modeling that struggle to get this going. Not likely to happen, but it’s a non-zero possibility. I just want to highlight that there are reasons this isn’t a 100 percent chance of development right now.

A potential threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast

All that said, I just want to make clear right now that this has the potential to be a strengthening storm in the Gulf, moving north, fairly fast later this coming week. When Francine moved into Louisiana it passed over warm but not super warm waters in the central and western Gulf of Mexico. If this upcoming system tracks farther east of Francine as seems likely, it will be passing over much warmer Gulf waters.

The Gulf of Mexico as a whole is just shy of record warm levels, and most of that is being driven by the waters in the eastern Gulf. (University of Arizona)

The near-record warmth of the Gulf is being driven almost entirely by the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, close to where this system will likely pass.

I don’t want to overstate the risk at this point, but given the scenario (Quick moving, very warm water, generally favorable upper level conditions, and less dry air than Francine contended with), there is some legitimate risk of a significant storm on the central or eastern Gulf Coast late next week. You should be following this forecast closely if you live between Florida and Louisiana, and you should be ready to put your hurricane plans into motion quickly this week once we see further agreement on possibilities.

So what do the models say?

We have seen the operational models reduce the spread between each other considerably in the last 24 hours. We still have some variability on track and timing, but there has been a tendency to push toward a track northward between Louisiana and Florida sometime between Thursday and Sunday next weekend. The odds of the system getting buried off the Yucatan in the Bay of Campeche has dropped off some since yesterday.

Today’s European ensemble at 12z, hot off the presses still shows a very wide spread of possibilities, from a system getting buried in the Bay of Campeche to one tracking southeast into South Florida. But what I pay attention to with these runs is what has changed or where the “clustering” is occurring. If we compare the same image at the same time 24 hours ago, we can see a shift in both the ensemble mean (solid black lines) to the northeast and a decline in the number of Euro ensemble members that bury this system in the Bay of Campeche.

A comparison of yesterday’s Euro ensemble mean and individual member forecasts for next Thursday evening versus the same view today shows a marked shift to the northeast with the mean and fewer members in the Bay of Campeche, an indication that trends are shifting north and east in the Euro, closer to what the GFS suite has been showing. (Tropical Tidbits) (Editor’s note: This image was adjusted at 4:45 PM CT Saturday to align the forecast times which were previously askew by 6 hours)

This further indicates that there is a definite trend toward a faster and more progressive storm to the north or northeast within the modeling. We can see further evidence of this in a consistent GFS, the ICON, and the Euro AI model (AIFS) showing similar type of outcomes now.

Why is this? Since yesterday, we have seen a bit of a signal in modeling for a cutoff low or secondary trough to develop over Arkansas or Oklahoma. This is something of a new wrinkle.

The last 6 runs of the Euro ensemble mean showing a developing and farther east trough or cutoff low over Arkansas that is likely helping to “pull” the tropical system straight north. (Tropical Tidbits)

Whatever the case, this slightly stronger and farther east trough is helping to “pull” at the tropical system in the Gulf and force it to the north. This is what is likely shifting the Euro ensemble to the side of the GFS and other modeling now and why we’re seeing some additional agreement develop on a threat to the central or eastern Gulf Coast.

The bottom line: There is building agreement in the modeling that a tropical system is going to come north late this coming week toward the central or eastern U.S. Gulf Coast. While details remain elusive there is enough evidence of a threat to that region that folks should be paying close attention to forecasts and thinking about their plan for later this week should they need to evacuate or hunker down. We’ll have more on this tomorrow.

21 Sep 19:06

Strangest State: Robbers, Witches, and Sharks

by Texas Observer Staff
21 Sep 16:58

41-year-old woman dead after being struck by Houston police car

by Sarah Grunau
Cowboy Who?

The woman failed to yield right-of-way? I think you mean: the police car failed to no run over someone.

The woman had just stepped off of a metro bus with her three children.
21 Sep 16:53

Fort Bend County Judge KP George knew Taral Patel used fake account, warrant alleges

by Natalie Weber, Fort Bend County Bureau
Search warrants allege Patel may have used aliases to post racist comments under the judge's campaign page.
21 Sep 16:52

Energy Transfer releases first emissions report from La Porte pipeline fire

by Kyle McClenagan
The pipeline fire burned for four days and resulted in the death of one person and the injury of four others.
21 Sep 16:52

11th Annual Islamic Arts Festival Comes to Houston in November

by Jessica Fuentes

The Islamic Arts Society has announced that its 11th Annual Islamic Arts Festival will take place at the University of Houston (UH) November 9-10, 2024.

A designed flyer promoting the Islamic Arts Festival.

Each year, the Islamic Arts Society organizes and collaborates on events and classes that promote the understanding of Islamic culture. In addition to this programming, it hosts an annual two-day festival displaying work by emerging and student artists. Past iterations of the event have seen thousands of attendees.

This year, along with the visual arts display, the event has expanded to include a film festival, a comedy show by Preacher Moss, the Sufi music group Al-Firdaus Ensemble from Spain, and an academic seminar co-organized with UH’s Kathrine G. McGovern College of the arts. The seminar will be a panel discussion exploring the current state of Islamic Arts in the U.S. There will also be live demonstrations of calligraphy, henna tattoos, ebru, and painting. 

A photograph of an artist demonstrating a painting technique.

Islamic Arts Festival, live art demo.

Shaheen Rahman, the President of the Islamic Arts Society, told Glasstire, “The festival provides a platform to foster cultural understanding, highlighting the beauty and unity found in diversity. Through this event, we aim to build connections across communities, showcasing the richness of Islamic art.”

Additionally, this is the first time the festival has been moved from its suburban venue at Masjid Al-Salam to a more central location at UH. Specifically, the free event will take place at Houston Hall, Student Center South, at UH, on Saturday and Sunday, November 9 and 10, from 10:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. 

Learn more about the Islamic Arts Society and the festival via the organization’s website.

The post 11th Annual Islamic Arts Festival Comes to Houston in November appeared first on Glasstire.

21 Sep 00:14

Co-worker that everyone hates surprised he can’t get colleagues to do what he wants

by Luke Gordon Field

OTTAWA – Local man Pierre Poilievre, an employee at an Ottawa small business named the House of Commons, was surprised that none of the colleagues who despise him were willing to support him with his proposal for q4 strategies. “I didn’t even listen to his ‘carbon tax election’ plan if I’m being honest,” said one […]

The post Co-worker that everyone hates surprised he can’t get colleagues to do what he wants appeared first on The Beaverton.

21 Sep 00:13

American Black Nazi Party Worried Mark Robinson Could Hurt Other Candidates Down Ballot

by The Onion Staff

WASHINGTON—Troubled by the potential political fallout from the North Carolina gubernatorial candidate’s scandal, the American Black Nazi Party was reportedly worried Friday that Mark Robinson could hurt its other candidates down the ballot. “Mark Robinson does not represent the African American Third Reich,” said American Black Nazi Party chairwoman Sandra Higgins, who warned that by refusing to exit the race, Robinson was endangering the campaigns of thousands of American Black Nazi Party candidates in races ranging from county commissioner to U.S. Senate. “There are so many tight races between American Black Nazi and Democratic candidates right now. We’ve made significant inroads with racist Black voters for years, and now, I fear, we could lose them all. It’s a shame his pornography use is undercutting the very insightful comments he has made about Martin Luther King Jr.” At press time, Higgins warned that the American Black Nazi Party could even lose the House of Representatives. 

The post American Black Nazi Party Worried Mark Robinson Could Hurt Other Candidates Down Ballot appeared first on The Onion.

21 Sep 00:13

North Carolina Voters Abandon Mark Robinson For Nude Africa User ‘FootPapa12’

by The Onion Staff

RALEIGH, NC—In the wake of an explosive report that revealed several controversial posts the lieutenant governor had made years ago on a pornographic website, North Carolina voters across the state told reporters Friday that they had abandoned Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson for Nude Africa user FootPapa12. “Although we were previously excited to vote for Mark Robinson, we now see that foot fetishist and self-proclaimed ‘toe king’ FootPapa12 is the best option to lead our great state,” said North Carolina resident Jason Palmer, adding that while they had lost trust in Robinson after his concerning comments about slavery and being a black Nazi, the anonymous podophile’s views on foot jobs, pedicures, and face-trampling better represented their values. “Frankly, after doing some research, I liked what ‘FootPapa12′ said about putting middle-class voters’ feet in his mouth. We deserve a candidate who will fight for all of us to climax, whether that involves pantyhose, rubbing our feet in oil, or someone watching us wiggle our toes as we dip them into various foods. The choice is clear.” At press time, former President Donald Trump had thrown his support behind FootPapa12, claiming the anonymous user was “Martin Luther King on steroids.”

The post North Carolina Voters Abandon Mark Robinson For Nude Africa User ‘FootPapa12’ appeared first on The Onion.

21 Sep 00:13

‘They’re Getting Shot,’ Kamala Harris Warns Home Intruders, Burglars, Litterbugs, Slow Walkers

by The Onion Staff

FARMINGTON HILLS, MI—Discussing the Second Amendment with Oprah Winfrey at a Michigan town hall last night, Vice President Kamala Harris admitted she may have gotten too comfortable when she remarked that any home intruders, burglars, litterbugs, or slow walkers near her house could expect to be shot. “If somebody breaks into my house, knocks on my door to sell me something, or leaves their dog’s waste on my lawn, they’re getting shot,” the Democratic presidential nominee said in an attempt to bridge the gap with conservative gun owners in the swing state, drawing applause as she pantomimed looking through a rifle scope at the audience and then mimicked the sound of gunfire. “If you trespass onto my property or take my plate away from the table before I’m finished eating, I’m going to take you out, as is my right as an American citizen. Let this serve as a warning to anyone who steals my mail, runs down the airplane aisle to deboard before it’s their turn, or talks too loudly in a movie theater—these things upset me, and I’m not afraid to defend myself accordingly. Also goes for drivers who don’t signal, heavy mouth-breathers, or if I just don’t like your face. Boom.” Later in the interview, Harris drew a gun from inside her jacket and fired a warning shot into the air after someone in the audience answered a call on speakerphone.

The post ‘They’re Getting Shot,’ Kamala Harris Warns Home Intruders, Burglars, Litterbugs, Slow Walkers appeared first on The Onion.

21 Sep 00:10

MrBeast Sued By Contestants For Unsafe Conditions

by The Onion Staff

YouTuber MrBeast is accused of creating unsafe employment conditions, including sexual harassment and misrepresenting contestants’ odds at winning his new Amazon reality show’s $5 million grand prize, in a lawsuit filed by five unnamed participants. What do you think?

“No work environment should force people to interact with MrBeast.”

Eileen Logue, Threat Processor

“To produce any great art, there must be sacrifice.”

Roy Hartnett, Profanity Monitor

“Yeah, well, how many subscribers do the accusers have?”

Travis Pauletti, Barber’s Apprentice

The post MrBeast Sued By Contestants For Unsafe Conditions appeared first on The Onion.

21 Sep 00:09

Maslow's Pyramid

The local police, building inspector, and fire marshal are all contesting my 'safety' assertion, or would be if they could reach me past all the traps.
21 Sep 00:08

Trying to narrow down the development setup next week near the Yucatan

by Matt Lanza

Headlines

  • We are likely to see development in the Caribbean or near the Yucatan next week.
  • Model guidance suggests that there are a few possible outcomes, including a quicker, stronger storm that tracks north or northeast or a slower, weaker outcome closer to the Yucatan.
  • Folks on the Gulf Coast, particularly between New Orleans and Florida should be flexible with their preparedness plans and be ready to implement them if necessary early next week.

We are still a few days from Caribbean development

I feel like we’ve been talking about this potential development in the Caribbean for days now. That’s one element of hurricane season that has gotten worse in recent years: The availability and democratization of weather data has kept any and every potential disturbance in the conversation for a week or two before they even form, then for a week or two as they do their thing. In some cases, you can be talking about one system from pre-inception to finish for a month! But the availability of all this information has made our job more important to help y’all make sense of what it’s saying.

The probability of Caribbean development remained at 40 percent this morning. We’ll see if the afternoon update in a bit increases those odds. (NOAA NHC)

Yesterday’s post has aged pretty well, thankfully. Frankly, not a whole lot has changed. But I think there’s a clear dichotomy taking shape now between the European modeling and the GFS modeling Yesterday, I noted how the Euro was apt to consolidate the disturbance next week near or over the Yucatan, whereas the GFS did so mostly in the Caribbean. Those models have not changed their view on this today. Trends over the last couple days have led to the European AI modeling, the AIFS to trend a little closer to the GFS solution of stronger, faster, more north and east. The ICON model is also taking that stand, so there is some slowly building support for the GFS here, I think.

The last 5 AIFS runs showing an erratic but general trend toward the more eastern outcomes for late next week. (Tropical Tidbits)

That said, if we look at ensemble guidance, there continues to be a gigantic split among the 30 to 50 ensemble members in both the GFS and European suite. The Euro seems to be split about 80/20 favoring the western/weaker outcome, whereas the GFS is more of a 40/60 blend favoring stronger and more east/north leaning outcomes.

Latest 12z GFS Ensemble outlook shows about a 60/40 or 70/30 type split in outcomes favoring a stronger, more east and north type track over a system that stays stuck near the Yucatan. (StormVista)

It may have even gotten more confident in that eastward lean in today’s 12z model guidance as seen above. The one big, big takeaway from both of these examples showing the AIFS and GFS Ensemble members is that there is still *very* little agreement on track, just many generalizations that can be inferred from this output.

I continue to think this sort of scenario favors either a Mexico or Yucatan impact or a Florida through New Orleans type impact on the northern Gulf Coast. I remain convinced that Texas is *not* the most likely outcome here, but I would continue advising Texans to monitor things heading into next week.

There are also gigantic timing differences here. The storms that come north and northeast tend to do so quickly, with impacts possible as early as next Thursday. So for folks in Louisiana through Florida, you would need to be ready to act as soon as Monday if this looks like a building threat. For Texas and Mexico, if the western outcome happens, this would likely remain a middling system for several days before organizing later next week and coming north next weekend. This would deliver impacts to the central Gulf Coast by next Sunday or so. That’s a large spread of timing options, so folks on the Gulf Coast should be flexible with their preparedness and be ready to act early next week once things become clearer.

We will have daily posts this weekend to keep you all informed.

Elsewhere in your tropical Atlantic!

Invest 96L has developed in the open Atlantic, and between it and the remnants of Gordon, we could maybe see something try to form over the next few days. Neither system is likely to impact land.

More interestingly, we have potential for a Cabo Verde system to develop later next week. The European ensemble has been quite bullish on this. There is plentiful support for this from other modeling as well. Expect this potential to show up around midweek next week.

The Euro ensemble, as well as other models show a growing likelihood of development later next week off Africa. (Weathernerds.org)

Now, is this system likely to be a land threat? It’s too early to say definitively, but the current thinking is that this would probably end up moving out to sea ultimately. Plenty of time to watch. No other threats are seen closer to home right now after next week’s Caribbean/Gulf story.

20 Sep 17:10

Out Here in Magdalena: Three Approaches to Draw From

by Jennifer Davy

It couldn’t have been more fitting and uplifting than having three stellar bands roll through my last weekend out in Magdalena, New Mexico. Echoing the three solo shows by Sarita Johnson, Estelle Roberge, and Hills Snyder at Warehouse 1-10 the gallery hosted a set of concerts organized by kind of a small array. The evening got off to a banger start with Sunjammer playing until sunset, followed by a funny, moving, heady rendezvous with Buttercup. GARRETT T. CAPPS with NASA COUNTRY brought the cosmic twang home and closed out the night, sending us off stargazing for more. Having lived a small lifetime ago in San Antonio, it was an excellent reminder of the city’s great music, and a lively opportunity to catch up to evolving trajectories. Really good music takes you places; mixed with Buttercup banter it’s a reassuring trip. Forming a preamble of sorts to their new song, “Zero Control,” Erik Sanden’s honest, vigilant words mingle and muse with the audience:

Everything that’s happened to me — all the wonderful things and most of the hard things — it turns out had nothing to do with my efforts. And that somehow letting go of ‘efforting’ and trying to bend things to my will is liberation.

The song was written in an individual and collective “I” about “efforting,” and in and with grief and loss. What to do with the untenable. It’s a rhetorical question that elicits as much silence as volume. Control and/or lack thereof is part of that existential circle jerk one may or may not entertain from time to time. It’s an age-old topic in philosophy often under the tutelage of (or in relation to) “free will” or lack thereof. 

An abstract drawing with black lines and hints of color.

A work by Hills Snyder

What can we control? Do I want that control? Is control just hubris with a dash of conceit, or a side of fear? Perhaps for Sanden, it takes some concerted effort to create the kind of music that continues to sing long after the show’s over. So it’s that “effortless” effort that corrals rather than controls, that bends with rather than forces a way through. This is the path that the artist Hills Snyder has been drawing, and literally cutting, upon arriving in Magdalena. Once a neighboring dirt road was gated, it blocked an access point along the otherwise privately landlocked public land trail that hikes up Magdalena Peak. Entering a natural clearing nearby, Snyder began cutting a new trail following the contours of the land, mindful of its geological and biological inhabitants. This is the similar path in his drawing series Magdalena (2022-23), which follows in the footsteps of his exploratory drawing series Altered States (2016–ongoing) and Your Nowhere is My Somewhere. See You There (2017). 

The drawings are based on snapshots taken in and around Magdalena, the village where Snyder and his wife took their time moving to from 2017 to 2019. Purposefully utilizing only thumbnails to choose from because that is the scale in which the content’s energy jumps out, Snyder then looks at the full-scale image a while before setting to mark. The aim isn’t to render and it’s not aimless; it is, as the artist refers to it, a “call and response” with each move or line or mark responding to the other(s) there and not there, including the empty space of the paper. Here, effort and control could be conjured like call and response, neither forcing a will rather allowing it to happen, mindful of when to stop.

The constraints are like the contours of the land posing an array of possibilities: is it best to skirt around the rock formation or accept the natural step or two it affords to the next plateau? Where Snyder ends up and what you end up seeing can be as surprising as discoveries on the trail — a petrified curvilinear stick takes on the shape of a snake or is it a leather strap having lost its stirrup? Sometimes all it takes is a gesture, a stray line alongside a pointed one, or just enough multi-hued shading as in Hop Canyon Workshop (2023) that suggests a particular place and direction fantastically unidentifiable. Hints of Prismacolor take certain moves, pink overtakes orange in line around the corner from the blue line curve in El Farolito (2022) contouring a sci-fi pictogram. They are playful and poetic. Sierra Propane (2023) renders this inference transference most acutely. It’s levitating, but also rushing toward the upper right edge, and still — caught within a perpendicular, intangible simultaneity. In this energetic stasis, ghost lines appear in traces and erasures. An indecipherable prism apparatus anchors the piece with arms adrift, maybe it’s loosely in control or dancing. The artist affirms and suggests that his “drawings are not meant to reveal anything about the base locations except maybe as a quantum fantasy. Quantum because it can’t be seen, fantasy because I’m pretending it can.”

I have zero control
I, I, I, I have zero control

Sarita Johnson had a vision: a donkey. There in her wife’s hospital room stood a donkey as though it were keeping a watchful eye — a surefooted guardian, a patient, calming figure of support. For her wife Susan Alexander, and for herself, The Equus asinus was the reassuring presence Johnson needed to draw from and draw out. Countless hours in such rooms filled five drawing books; countless hours of final drawing, color work, and learning Photoshop filled the pages of the first chapter of The Donkey in Albany (2019).

A drawing of a van driving on a muddy road.

Sarita Johnson, a page from “The Donkey in Albany”

Chapter one begins in Magdalena, where Johnson and Alexander were visiting for a future place to retire. The story starts off in a full-page rainstorm with a gray van heading down a muddy brown streaming road, green booted kids playing in the pooling waters. On the next page, behind the wheel in a deep red shirt, we learn from Johnson that they are racing back home due to Alexander’s severe and mysterious symptoms. Interspersed with the outlines, color blocks and text bubbles, a sepia toned landscape view of the high desert places us along the way as they descend towards California. There, via a series of mini flashbacks, we meet Johnson’s doting daughter, witness intimacy and vulnerability, and watch Alexander’s pending cancer diagnosis frame-by-frame. That was fourteen years ago. She passed away thirteen and a half years later.

Donkeys, a highly intelligent species, are also known for their excellent memories. It happens to be another characteristic essential to Johnson’s work as she often draws from memory together with photographs which act as placeholders. Whether she draws on paper or tablet, each “image cell” she renders is like a memory frame, winding and unwinding a story. The art of the age-old form of pictographic storytelling relies on an economy of means and an expertise in utilizing those means. Johnson masters the slightest of gestures, highlighting or exaggerating an expression, playing with color and pattern, and objects, like the knives and flames piercing down Alexander’s back yield “excruciating!” A former public-school teacher, Johnson has been drawing and coloring since she was a kid. Growing up in rural Kentucky, comic books were portals to other worlds yielding an endless supply of inspiration and respite. It is natural then that the artist would draw solace and joy from the pages of her sketchbooks, in the art of drawing a way through the untenable.

Drowning in her vigil
I can hang around
I’m told I can take it

At a time when the precarity of existence was resolutely palpable on a daily basis the world over, Estelle Roberge looked to bird sanctuaries to find sanctuary amidst the tragedy of the Covid-19 pandemic. She migrated toward the Sandhill crane in particular whose gatherings at the nature preserve were a needed flight from isolation. Encumbered by the omnipotence of permanence and impermanence, the artist engrossed herself in studies — reading about birds, cranes, and all about the Sandhill cranes. She also looked to the poetic philosophy of Gaston Bachelard and his Poetics of Space. Together they created an atmosphere, a palette, a space, where Roberge could set to work and almost literally spread her wings.

A collage of different papers depicting cranes in the water.

Estelle Roberge, a spread from “The Book of Cranes”

The Book of Cranes (2022) eventually emerged. An artist’s book of collage, it is drawn through cutting and placing, “cutting and recutting, measuring, tracing, drawing, coloring and pushing various colored and patterned papers on a surface.” Working with reams of gorgeous handmade papers, Roberge draws crane populated worlds in patterned forms, colored shapes, and textured grounds. The book, which is also editioned as individual collage and giclée prints, is like a vast forest of cranes within rich, textured, worlds that appear faintly recognizable and unimaginably fantastical. Some lean towards the abstract, where colored and patterned forms and grounds seem to merge across a textured field. The artist’s compositional acumen and deft attention to detail come together to create a poetic sanctuary of Robergian cranes. 

At the end of her artist’s talk, Roberge shared that we “have to notice what goes unnoticed.” It sounds almost like an artists’ adage, and in all three shows, the artists have in their singular ways drawn on this. In seeing or finding or being open to other ways of drawing or being drawn through. Billed as a set of solo exhibitions, Warehouse 1-10 presents these three diverse takes on drawing by three distinct artists. In Sarita Johnson, Estelle Roberge, and Hills Snyder, gallery director and curator Catherine DeMaria has found community and kinship in natural fault lines. Echoing what San Antonio artist Chris Sauter has said of Buttercup’s music which can be applied to all the aforementioned artists and musicians––life affirming. 

Submission is a form of loss
Sha sha sha
Submission is not giving up the ghost

 

Three Solo Shows: Sarita Johnson | Estelle Roberge | Hills Snyder was on view at Warehouse 1-10 in Magdalena, New Mexico and online at warehouse110.com

The post Out Here in Magdalena: Three Approaches to Draw From appeared first on Glasstire.

20 Sep 17:07

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson: ‘We All Have Crazy Ideas About Slavery When We’re Horny’

by The Onion Staff
20 Sep 13:14

trainer had religious messages on his presentation screen, did my son’s friend’s dad share confidential data, and more

by Ask a Manager

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

It’s four answers to four questions. Here we go…

1. Trainer had religious messages on his presentation screen

I attended a multi-day training a few months back where the trainer who was running the presentations had extreme religious images/quotes as his laptop background, so every time they were between presentations, the image was projected on the screens at the front of the classroom. If the images/quotes had been of the “love thy neighbor” type, I probably would’ve clocked it as not the most appropriate in a professional environment but also pretty harmless. The message was not this. It was “the wages of sin is death,” we’re all sinners who will burn in hell if not for Jesus type of quotes, arranged in the shape of a large cross. It was … extremely unsettling.

I’m guessing someone said something about it, because about halfway through the training he switched his background to a generic Microsoft background. I had wanted to say something, but was unsure how to approach it since religion is such an individual and personal thing, and it felt weird as an attendee to ask the trainer to change his screen. How would one go about asking someone who is in a position of authority at least if not power to make such a change?

To make the question more interesting, I’m interviewing for a senior leader position next month, and that position supervises that particular trainer. If I were this person’s supervisor and saw that kind of religious message on his computer, how would I address it? If it’s just on his computer background and wasn’t projected to an audience, do you say nothing? If it were a less violent message, would it be okay if it were projected to an audience? Would a blanket “don’t have a religious background when projecting to an audience at work” rule be legally appropriate? I know general expression of one’s religion in the workplace is protected and I would never want to single someone out for their religious beliefs, but this feels different.

Wow, yeah, that’s wildly inappropriate. You weren’t there for religious proselytizing; you were there for a work training.

You were absolutely entitled as a training participant to speak up and ask him to change it. One way to do it would be to talk to him privately on a break and say, “I don’t know if you realize your screen background has religious quotes, but I’d appreciate if you’d change it to something neutral since we’re here for a work training.” On the other hand, you’d also be on solid ground in speaking up during the class itself and saying, “I find that background really distracting and off-topic. Could it be changed?” (Personally I’d do that one because I think there’s value in other people seeing pushback on this stuff, and I also wouldn’t want to sit here with it for hours before an opportunity to talk to him privately, but I’m also less shy about making a scene over this sort of BS than many people are.)

As his manager, it would be 100% okay to require that all your trainers use neutral presentation backgrounds with no personal messages on them (this would cover not just religion, but sports, politics, marijuana leaves, and on and on).

2. Should I report my son’s friend’s dad for sharing confidential student data?

I teach history an elite prep school (something akin to Chilton for you Gilmore Girls fans out there). Thanks to tuition discounts that faculty receive, my son “Jack” is able to attend and is in the fifth grade. The school does standardized testing twice a year. During the most recent round of testing, Jack was sick and did not perform his best. My husband and I chose not to show him his test scores because he’s a perfectionist and we knew it didn’t reflect what he is capable of. Recently, I overheard his best friend, “Milo,” teasing him because Milo had outscored him on the test. He knew Jack’s scores in specific categories and was able to compare them to his own.

Given that Jack had no idea what his score was, Milo had to get the information somewhere else. I strongly suspect Milo learned the scores from his father, who works for the school in IT. His father has the ability to access grades and test scores that others can’t.

Here’s my dilemma — do I report my suspicions? On the one hand, Milo’s father is potentially sharing confidential information with students, which is a fireable offense. On the other hand, if Milo’s father loses his job, there’s no way their family can afford to continue to send Milo to our school. We’ve discussed our financial circumstances before, and the fact that our children can only attend due to our employment with the school. I don’t want Milo to suffer for his father’s mistake. I also have no proof, just my suspicions.

I think you should report it. Disclosing confidential student data is a really big deal, and if Milo’s father was truly oblivious enough to that that he’d disclose Jack’s data to Jack’s best friend (what did he think was going to happen?!), there’s a problem that needs to be addressed.

That said, you don’t actually know this came from Milo’s father. You only know that somehow Jack’s confidential data found its way to a schoolmate. Report that part of it, not the part you can’t prove. The school knows who Milo’s dad is, and if that is indeed what happened, they’re highly likely to be able to put it together themselves. But for all we know, it leaked out some other way — so just stick to the pieces you know for sure.

3. Why won’t people include my middle name?

My name is ​Alexandra Jane Smith, and I’m very attached to it in full. My first name is Alexandra, and that is what I introduce myself as, but I hate it when things are addressed to Alexandra Smith, or my name badge misses out Jane. I know this is a small thing, but it’s my name! It’s particularly frustrating when I get official or important documents without my middle name. ​

​Any suggestions on how to approach this, or just accept my fate as Alexandra (Jane) Smith?

Yeah, if you introduce yourself as Alexandra and you go by Alexandra, you’re going to get addressed as Alexandra (or Alexandra Smith) and Alexandra (or Alexandra Smith) will be on your name badge … since most people don’t use their middle names except on extremely formal legal documents (and often not even then).

You can certainly try to head it off beforehand by letting people know, “I prefer my full name, Alexandra Jane Smith, on documents/name badges.” That will work some of the time, but it won’t work all the time.

Even if you went by Alexandra Jane, you’d still be fighting an uphill battle — ask all the Mary Janes who find Mary on their name tags, or all the people with hyphenated last names who find only half of their last name printed.

It’s perfectly fine to have the preference! But you’ll be happier if you accept that, realistically, your preferences are different from the naming conventions people are used to.

4. Can I put relevant jobs first on my resume?

I did some health counseling work decades ago, and started again during the pandemic for a major hospital system. In between I did a variety of things totally outside the health-related field. As I try to get back into health-related jobs, can I list my work experience by relevant experiences first, and then fill in the rest underneath? Like so:

RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE:
2020-2023 – relevant health-related job
1997-2004 – relevant health related job
1992-1997 – relevant health related job
2004-2020 – list other non-health-related jobs here

Would that seem weird on a resume? I’m concerned that a quick glance won’t show me off in the best light if I list the jobs chronologically.

It’s completely normal to separate out relevant experience and list it first, when some of your recent work history is really unrelated to what you’re applying for now. You just need an additional heading in the other for the less relevant jobs, like this:

RELEVANT EXPERIENCE:
2020-2023 – relevant health-related job
1997-2004 – relevant health related job
1992-1997 – relevant health related job

OTHER EXPERIENCE:
2004-2020 – list other non-health-related jobs here

Also, you don’t need to go back 20 years. Feel free to stop at 12-15, depending on what produces the strongest resume. (It’s also okay to go back further for the relevant jobs while only including the more recent non-relevant ones.)

20 Sep 13:03

Harris says anyone breaking into her home is 'getting shot'

The Democratic presidential nominee has discussed her gun ownership in a jokey exchange with Oprah Winfrey.
20 Sep 13:03

Scarecrow Has Double Ds

by The Onion Staff

AFTON, WI—Remarking on the hay-stuffed decoy’s surprisingly shapely form, passersby reported Friday that a scarecrow in a local cornfield boasted double-D breasts. “Damn, she’s got hay in all the right places, don’t she?” area man Jim Bickford said to a group of visibly dumbstruck bystanders who either leered and catcalled or stood with jaws agape as they contemplated the ample, overstuffed bust straining against the straw mannequin’s faded, stretched-out blouse. “Them buttons is fixin’ to pop right off! Man, I wouldn’t mind getting my hands around those knotted nests of brittle sticks and hay. Her burlap face ain’t too bad, either.” At press time there were multiple injuries reported among local men who scratched their faces on stray twigs and straw while attempting to motorboat the scarecrow.

The post Scarecrow Has Double Ds appeared first on The Onion.

20 Sep 13:03

Hellspawn Annoyed By Sound Of Earth’s Residents Stomping Around Overhead

by The Onion Staff

LAKE OF FIRE, HELL—Complaining that it was almost impossible to get any torturing done with the constant interruption, hellspawn were reportedly annoyed Friday by the sound of earth’s residents stomping around overhead. “It’s just unbelievably frustrating to be flaying the skin of a glutton or sodomite and not even be able to hear their screams over the loud clomp-clomp-clomp coming from the plane of existence above us,” said demon Asmodeus, picking up a broom and hitting it repeatedly against the ceiling of hell in an effort to alert humanity to how noisy it was being. “They’re listening to music at all hours, getting into huge fights, and just constantly walking back and forth across the planet. I swear, last year around the holidays the walls started shaking so hard from all the noise that an entire basket of red-hot pokers fell off a shelf and shattered on the floor. I’ve tried calling God about it, but He just gives me the usual runaround—He knows we’re not going to move out, so He doesn’t give a shit.” At press time, Asmodeus was heard cursing after seepage from a burst pipe on earth had caused water damage to spread throughout Hell.

The post Hellspawn Annoyed By Sound Of Earth’s Residents Stomping Around Overhead appeared first on The Onion.

20 Sep 13:02

Mother Earth Insists She Doesn’t Want Any Pagan Sacrifices This Equinox

by The Onion Staff

ÖLAND, SWEDEN—Assuring her children that she really meant it this time, Mother Earth reportedly insisted Friday that she didn’t want any pagan sacrifices this autumn equinox. “I know you think this is just me being self-effacing, but I genuinely don’t want you to make a big thing of slitting the throat of a fatted calf next to one of my knotted oak trees,” said humanity’s ancestral mother, who stressed that she appreciated all the blood sacrifices her spiritual offspring had given her in the past to commemorate the turning of seasons and the autumn harvest. “Obviously, I’ve loved everything you’ve slaughtered for me over the years. But I don’t want to draw attention to myself. Right now, the only thing I want is to see all my children together frolicking amongst the flames of the bonfires. Heck, smear some of that virgin blood on yourself for once.” At press time, Mother Earth was said to be sulking after humanity took her at her word and didn’t even throw a single newborn child off a cliff for her.

The post Mother Earth Insists She Doesn’t Want Any Pagan Sacrifices This Equinox appeared first on The Onion.

20 Sep 13:01

Diddy Arrested On Sex Trafficking Charges

by The Onion Staff

Sean “Diddy” Combs faces federal sex trafficking and racketeering charges in a newly unsealed indictment that claims he hit and abused women for over a decade while presiding over a sordid empire of sexual crimes. What do you think?

“If only there were any warning songs.”

Andrew Ponce, Unemployed

“I think he goes by ‘Defendant’ now.”

Tyler Damron, Leaflet Folder

“It’s always the ones with a history of abusing women that you least suspect.”

Sierra Bedford, Systems Analyst

The post Diddy Arrested On Sex Trafficking Charges appeared first on The Onion.

20 Sep 13:01

It appears that the slow road to actual autumn is approaching in Houston

by Matt Lanza

In brief: After enduring one of the longest, strongest late season heat waves on record in Houston, we will begin to slowly reduce heat after today and tomorrow. Look for slightly “less hot” weather next week and an opportunity at a weak cool front. We’re also watching the tropics but are not currently too worried about what develops near the Yucatan as it pertains to Houston.

We hit 98 degrees yesterday officially in Houston, our seventh straight day above 95 degrees that began on September 13th. In the history of Houston’s weather records back to the 1880s, a one week stretch above 95 degrees has not ever occurred after September 13th. We had a couple five day stretches back in 2011 and late last September but never a week. If you’re like me and hate September because it only teases and never delivers autumn in any lengthy fashion, then this stretch of weather inspires much loathing. It’s just that it hasn’t been this hot for this long this late in the season before in Houston. We may make a run at an eighth straight day of this today, but the good news is that change is on the horizon.

Today through Sunday

Today and tomorrow should be similar in nature, with highs generally in the mid-90s, give or take, with limited rain chances. We will probably get the same out of Sunday, though it may be a degree or two cooler. It should still be above 90 though. Morning lows should be stable, generally in the mid-70s. If you’re out for a morning walk, it’ll really depend on exactly when you step outside. Either way, it will be quite humid.

Wet bulb globe temperatures are not far from “extreme” heat levels today, but there will be a slow, steady march back to moderate or even just “elevated” levels into next week. (Weather Bell)

Next week

I get the sense that next week is the week we really start to transition to autumn. It won’t be cool and refreshing by any means, but we will see high temperatures shave off a degree or two each day. We’ll start the week on Monday likely in the low-90s and finish the week in the upper-80s. Morning lows will go from the mid-70s Monday to the low-70s by Friday.

Forecast weather map for next Wednesday morning shows a weak cool front pushing through the area. (NOAA WPC)

The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast map for next Wednesday does show a cold front pushing into our area. This won’t be a sudden ultra-refreshing change, but I think this will reinforce this idea of a slow drift back toward “less hot” weather next week. With high humidity early in the week and an approaching front there will be a slight chance of showers each day, especially south and east of Houston. But meaningful rain seems unlikely next week.

Tropics

Odds of tropical development are steady (around 40%) next week in the southwest Gulf or northwest Caribbean. (NOAA NHC)

Yesterday evening I pushed a post out at our companion site, The Eyewall to discuss the latest on the Caribbean disturbance we expect to try to develop next week. In the post, I included a section about Texas and why I don’t believe this one is our storm. Meteorologically, the setup is such that whatever it becomes should move very slowly in the southern Gulf or near the Yucatan for several days before eventually getting scooped up by a trough in the Eastern U.S. and whisked off to the northeast. Overnight modeling did nothing to dispel that thinking on my end, so I’ll refer you to the post yesterday to get a better understanding of why we’re not currently too worried. That said, we’ll keep monitoring things this weekend and have the latest for you on Monday, assuming this remains likely to stay away. We will also update The Eyewall this weekend with more. For those of you with travel plans next weekend in that region, you’ll want to keep tuned in.

20 Sep 03:21

Kentucky sheriff held over fatal shooting of judge in court

District Judge Kevin Mullins was shot and killed in his chambers after an argument, police say.
20 Sep 03:21

The implication of that

by Scandinavia and the World
The implication of that

The implication of that

View Comic!