Shared posts

09 May 10:31

Iran nuclear deal at risk after Trump pulls US out

by Chuck Thompson
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal – risks coming apart after President Donald J. Trump announced the United States would no longer back the agreement, prompting criticism from Iran and threatening a diplomatic rift with three key U.S. allies who still support the deal. Shortly after Trump's announcement on May 8, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said his government remains in favor of a nuclear deal with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the European Union – signatories to the JCPOA, signed in 2015 – but that it's also ready to start enriching uranium if the deal offers no benefits (The Washington Post). European leaders and diplomats have expressed support for upholding the nuclear deal. In a joint statement, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: "Our governments remain committed to ensuring the agreement is upheld, and will work with all the remaining parties to the deal to ensure this remains the case including through ensuring the continuing economic benefits to the Iranian people that are linked to the agreement." High-ranking European diplomats criticized Trump's handling of the situation. French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said it was "a break with international commitment and France deeply regrets this decision." British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said the UK has "no intention of walking away" and said it was up to Trump to secure a new deal. Conservative Iranian lawmakers gathered in the country's parliament burned a copy of the deal, as well as a paper U.S. flag (CNN). Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also expressed doubt as to whether the deal can live on without U.S. involvement (CNN).

Trump's announcement

On March 8, Trump announced the United States will withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. “The Iran deal is defective at its core,” Trump said, reading from a prepared statement in slow, measured tones inside the White House. Following Trump’s announcement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed that U.S. sanctions on Iran will be re-imposed over 90-day and 180-day wind-down periods. The U.S withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal as soon as sanctions are reapplied. Trump long-opposed the diplomatic agreement established under the administration of President Barack Obama. He called the JCPOA the “worst deal in history” during the 2016 presidential campaign, and repeatedly threatened to leave the agreement once elected unless changes were made.  Following the announcement, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran will remain in JCPOA as long as the other countries honored its framework, despite Iran's previous pledge to leave the agreement if the U.S. did so first.

What is the Iran nuclear deal?

The Iran nuclear deal is an international agreement on Iran’s nuclear program reached in 2015 between Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The agreement stipulates Iran will eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98 percent, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. In return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from the United States, European Union, and United Nations Security Council nuclear-related economic sanctions. As a presidential candidate, Trump vehemently and regularly criticized the deal as one-sided, in favor of Iran. In announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement, he characterized reversing the United States’ obligations under the deal as keeping a promise. Trump spent most of the approximately 11-minute statement bitterly criticizing the Iranian government and deriding the deal agreed to by the Obama administration, which he referred to as “the previous administration.” “The Iranian regime is the leading state sponsor of terror,” Trump said. He said the Iranian government was responsible for “sinister activities in Syria, Yemen, and other places all around the world.” He called the original JCPOA “rotten” and “an embarrassment” and said it had failed to curtail Iranian ambitions to develop nuclear weapons. “Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon." Trump ended his statement by calling for “a lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear threat.” He also appealed to the Iranian people, saying the American public is allied with them in a desire for “peace and stability” in the Middle East.

Supporters of U.S. withdraw

Israel Saudi Arabia
  • Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said it supports U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which it says allowed Iran to destabilize and exert control over the Middle East.
  • The Saudi government has opposed the Iran nuclear deal dating to its ratification under the Obama Administration. It is concerned that lifting economic sanctions will strengthen the world's largest Shiite Muslim country, and Saudi Arabia's main regional foe (CBSNews). 
  • Since international sanctions began being lifted in 2015, Iran has expanded military operations, primarily in Syria where it has helped keep the Syrian government in power (New York Times). Saudi Arabia and Israel have increased their diplomatic ties in light of what they see as increased Iranian aggression.
United Arab Emirates
  • Reuters reported that the UAE government joins its regional ally Saudi Arabia in supporting Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.

Opposition to U.S. withdraw

U.S. Democratic leaders ... and some Republicans
  • Trump's announcement to withdraw from the agreement brought immediate criticism from Democratic Party leaders. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said the move would cost the U.S. "international credibility." According to NBC News, Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan "suggested that he, too, would have preferred modifying the agreement."
European Union Many Israeli generals
  • Former Israeli Major General Amos Gilad told a Haaretz journalist that an end to JCPOA would make Israel less safe. He cited Russia, China, and the European Union's continued support for the deal as evidence that Iran will not return to isolation.
03 Apr 10:06

Sweet 16

Every year I make out my bracket at the season, and every year it's busted before the first game when I find out which teams are playing.
02 Dec 02:25

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Class and Media

by tech@thehiveworks.com


Click here to go see the bonus panel!

Hovertext:
Before you write me an email asking 'what about the middle class,' please understand that I want this comic to still be relevant in 50 years.

New comic!
Today's News:
19 Oct 15:20

Photo

Shea

Kelly: New personality chart for us?



19 Oct 15:19

alienpapacy: I met a traveller from an antique landWho said:...



alienpapacy:

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

I met a programmer the other day
Who said “A vast and blocky plastic box
Stands in my workspace; in it, so they say
Half-dead, a chip from Intel lies, which clocks
566 M-hertz; the CD drive
And fifteen gigs, and bundled AOL
Must have seemed neat when Reagan was alive
But now the stickers on its lifeless shell
Seem only fit sad memories to revive
And on the light beige case are words that say:
"THIS COMPUTER IS NEVER OBSOLETE
SURF! INVEST! EMAIL! TYPE! SHOP! TRAVEL! PLAY!”
The monitor is dark; near its defeat
My new and shiny MacBook whirs away

28 Sep 19:11

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Non-Judgmental Parenting

by admin@smbc-comics.com
Shea

This is plan B

Hovertext: WE'RE not judging your behavior. The machine is.


New comic!
Today's News:

 Seattle BAHFest is coming!

26 Sep 02:20

What I love about that Dave Sim passage is that, although he’s clearly being sarcastic, he ends up...

What I love about that Dave Sim passage is that, although he’s clearly being sarcastic, he ends up painting this oddly positive picture of the thing he’s trying to portray as “so unappealing it’s a reductio ad absurdum of gender equality” (as well as “totally gay, which means I’m not gay, you’re gay,” which is his central point)

I mean, the positivity is clearly sarcastic, but it’s just … not exactly clear where the criticism is supposed to be.  “Imagine that you and your wife did a variety of things in the bedroom, and thereby came to a deeper understanding of one another’s desires and preferences … and found new ways of opening up to one another and increasing your level of intimacy … wouldn’t that be, uh, [checks notes] AWFUL???

22 Sep 17:44

This is not entirely endorsed, butOne possible way to think about the high/low fiction culture war,...

This is not entirely endorsed, but

One possible way to think about the high/low fiction culture war, in the case of written fiction, is that to some people bad writing is like low production values.  Being on the “high” side of this divide doesn’t necessarily mean requiring some sort of deep, transcendent meaning, or liking art for art’s sake, or anything like that.  It can be as simple as “the writing in this book is incompetent, and that means it doesn’t do the stuff in my mind that it’s supposed to.”

It’d be as if the correlation between content and production values in filmmaking were reversed.  Instead of low-budget, “artistic” indie films and high-budget, visually intricate superhero movies, you’d have extremely popular blockbusters with terrible production design and special effects, and smaller niche movies that look as good as the real world’s blockbusters do.

And some people would say, “who are you to look down upon this blockbuster everyone loves?”  And other people would say, “look, how am I supposed to enjoy this when I can see that the UFOs are actually painted garbage can lids?  When I can see the strings holding them up?  When the stunt double doesn’t even look anything like the original actor?”  And they’d get the response “lighten up, you snotty pretentious snob.”  And then they’d go off to a small theater to watch a John Cassavetes film, except in this alternate universe, John Cassavetes films have, like, mind-blowing CGI.

This all occurred to me when I was reading a Larry Correia post that’s all about how writers have to write fast and not waste time, because they need to make money.  And he keeps running together “giving the fans what they want” and “producing material quickly without wasting time on fine details.”  But in Hollywood, say, “giving the fans what they want” means spending years having a giant team do painstaking work to craft a seamless audiovisual universe.  Imagine the film equivalent of Correia: “we don’t have time to edit out the strings holding up the garbage can UFOs!  We need to give the fans what they want!”

(Of course, there is a reason things are this way.  Painstaking detail work appears to predictably make money in film, while it doesn’t work that way in written fiction.  But to at least some people, the two cases feel very similar.)

21 Sep 18:36

veronicastraszh: glitternose: fellyjish: businessinsider: The...



veronicastraszh:

glitternose:

fellyjish:

businessinsider:

There’s a startling difference between what men want in a wife and in a daughter

this is really creepy

super fucking creepy

Well, there is a long history of men wanting to keep their daughter waaaaay away from other men. The (not really a) joke, of course, is that they know what men are like cuz they know what they themselves are like.

It doesn’t really bother me that men want “attractive” wives but de-emphasize that for their children. I mean, I want my romantic partners to be attractive. Who doesn’t? However, to talk about one’s child that way would be weird.

It’s the “independent” one that is really gross. Fuck those sexist goons. Yeesh.

I wonder how much of the effect is that your top four for your wife might be “Attractive, Intelligent, Independent, Strong”, but you can only list three, so you list “Attractive, Intelligent, Independent” and then it looks like they value strength much less, when it’s actually just that attractiveness isn’t a factor for a daughter.

It is interesting that men care more about sweetness in a wife than in a daughter. I wonder why that is.

21 Sep 18:35

Have weak data. But need to make decision. What to do?

by Andrew

Vlad Malik writes:

I just re-read your article “Of Beauty, Sex and Power”.

In my line of work (online analytics), low power is a recurring, existential problem. Do we act on this data or not? If not, why are we even in this business? That’s our daily struggle.

Low power seems to create a sort of paradox: some evidence is better than none, but the evidence is useless. Not sure which it is, and your article hints at the two sides of that conflict.

If you are studying small populations, for example, it might not be possible to collect enough data for a “good sample”. You could collect some. But is such a study worth doing? And is the outcome of such a study worth even a guess? Is too little data as good as no data at all?

You do suggest in your article that “if we had to guess” then the low-powered study might still provide guidance. Yet you also say “we have essentially learned nothing from this study” and later point to a high probability that the effect from such a study may actually be pointing in the wrong direction.

In your critique, you rely heavily on lit review. What if past information is not available or is not as directly relevant, so the expected effect size is vague or unknown (at least to the experimenter’s best knowledge)? In that case, it might not be obvious that the effect is inflated.

Can data collected under such conditions ever be actionable? And if such data is published, how does one preface it? “Use with caution” or “Ignore for now. More research needed”?

What if not acting carries an opportunity cost and we have to act? Do we use the data or ignore it and rely on other criteria? If we say “this weak data supports other indirect evidence”, it might be acting with confirmation bias if the data is not in fact at all reliable. What if the weak data contradicts other evidence? How much power is enough to be worth even considering?

My reply: Indeed, even if evidence from the data at hand is not convincing, that doesn’t mean we have to do nothing. I strongly oppose using a statistical significance threshold to make decisions. In general I have three recommendations:

1. Use prior information. For example, in that silly beauty-and-sex-ratio study, we have lots of prior information that any differences would have to be tiny. We know ahead of time that our prior information is much stronger than the data.

2. When it comes to decision making, much depends on costs and benefits. We have a chapter on decision analysis in Bayesian Data Analysis that illustrates with three examples.

3. As much as possible, use quantitative methods to combine different sources of information:
– Define the parameter or parameters you want to estimate.
– Frame your different sources of information as different estimates of this parameter, ideally with statistically independent errors.
– Get some assessment of the bias and variance of each of your separate estimates.
– Then adjust for bias and get a variance-weighted estimate.
The above is the simplest scenario, where all the estimates are estimating the same parameter. In real life I suppose you’re more likely to be in an “8 schools” or meta-analysis situation, where your different estimates are estimating different things. And then you’ll want to fit a hierarchical model. Which is actually not so difficult. I suppose someone (maybe me) should write an article on how to do this, for a non-technical audience.

Anyway, the point is, when you do things this way, concepts of “power” aren’t so directly relevant. You just combine your information as best you can.

The post Have weak data. But need to make decision. What to do? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

18 Sep 11:54

blkoutqueen: Odysseus has proven time and time again that his...



blkoutqueen:

Odysseus has proven time and time again that his pride gets in the way of his leadership capabilities. He would be an awful president.

16 Sep 15:14

Bible Verses Where The Word “Wicked” Has Been Replaced With “Problematic”

newfavething:

selections from Mallory Ortberg’s ‘Problematic Bible

Genesis 13:12-13

Abram dwelt in the land of Canaan, and Lot dwelt in the cities of the plain and pitched his tent even as far as Sodom. But the men of Sodom were exceedingly problematic and sinful against the Lord.

Exodus 9:27

And Pharaoh sent and called for Moses and Aaron, and said to them, “I have sinned this time. The Lord is righteous, and my people and I are problematic.”

Leviticus 18:17

You shall not uncover the nakedness of a woman and her daughter, nor shall you take her son’s daughter or her daughter’s daughter, to uncover her nakedness. They are near of kin to her. It is problematic.

Leviticus 20:14

If a man marries a woman and her mother, it is problematic. They shall be burned with fire, both he and they.

Numbers 16:26

And he spoke to the congregation, saying, “Depart now from the tents of these problematic men! Touch nothing of theirs, lest you be consumed in all their sins.”

2 Chronicles 7:14

If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their problematic ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.

Job 34:18

Is it fitting to say to a king, ‘You are worthless,’ And to nobles, ‘You are problematic’?

Psalm 37:7

Rest in the Lord, and wait patiently for Him; Do not fret because of him who prospers in his way, Because of the man who brings problematic schemes to pass.

Matthew 22:18

But Jesus perceived they were problematic, and said, “Why do you test Me, you hypocrites?”

16 Sep 10:13

Although it seems obvious in retrospect, I’ve only recently realized why I often have a hard trouble...

Although it seems obvious in retrospect, I’ve only recently realized why I often have a hard trouble staying motivated while in academia, and particularly why certain sorts of projects motivate me so much more than others.

It’s because what I want is to be investigating a real phenomenon, and asking questions about it, and getting quick responses to those questions.  I want the methods, and the answers, not to matter, except that the methods should be the right ones for the jobs, and the answers should be true.

What I don’t want is the need to “come up with something new.”  Something “publishable.”

When working on a project in academia you have this weird mixture of incentives – on the one hand you just want to learn the truth about whatever you’re studying, but on the other hand you have this need for the truth to not be boring.  Finding out a dull, predictable answer to a question about reality is intellectual progress – because it’s an answer – but it’s not academic progress, because it’s not publishable.  Instead of simply trying to get inside a topic and figure it out, many academic projects create this atmosphere where you are constantly asking yourself “what is new about what I am doing?  Yes, I’m investigating a thing, but is my investigation novel, or just ordinary?”

It’s as if you’re trying to build a treehouse, and on the one hand you just want a sturdy treehouse that you can safely sit in, but on the other hand your treehouse has to be somehow “new,” unlike any treehouse anyone else has built before.  (Which can easily come into conflict with the first objective; most “new” ways to make treehouses are not good ways, which is why they have never been tried.)

When I simply want to understand something, and answer a set of questions about it – and any set of answers is acceptable so long as it’s correct – I can get obsessed with it, and it’s great.  This happened in my undergraduate thesis in college.  When there’s too much pressure for the investigation to have novel conclusions, I get anxious and procrastinate and ultimately just have positive, energetic drive to work on the project.  I just want to build a damn treehouse.

08 Feb 21:24

How Being a Photographer has Helped me Learn to Love Myself

by Alyssa Mae
I've been thinking about this for sometime now, but it's only recently that I've really figured out the extent of the impact that my job as a photographer has had on me.

Self-image always seems to be a touchy subject. It breaks my heart when someone steps in front of my camera and tells me how un-photogenic they are, or apologizes for their hair, make-up, clothes, etc. They seem to think I'm disappointed with them somehow.  That couldn't be farther from the truth. Here are some important words, for all of my clients and all of my fellow photographers:

 I have never photographed anyone that I didn't think was beautiful. 

When I get home from a session or a wedding, the first thing I do is eagerly download all the photos from my memory cards, load them into Lightroom and look at each and every one of them. I think that "reveal" moment is one of the most exciting parts of what I do. I get butterflies. I get to see all these special moments between people, preserved forever. The beautiful, glowing smile of a new mother. The tears in a father's eyes as he gives away his daughter. The tender expression of a man as he poses with his soon-to-be wife. Sincere, carefree giggles shared between a couple that during their holiday session. The list goes on. Those are the most beautiful things I could ever hope to photograph. Those are the images that inspire me and stir my soul. 

It isn't just the moments I covet. I love the people I get to meet. I see so many diverse personalities and interesting and fun ideas. It keeps me on my toes and keeps every session and wedding fresh and exciting. Every person I have ever photographed has something truly beautiful about them, and not just on the inside. It might be a fantastic smile, beautiful eyes, skin, freckles, hair, or body. But everyone looks beautiful to me. 

So now I arrive at the meat of this post. Why is it that looking at photographs of myself I don't always see the same beauty I see in others? I'm always comparing myself to some ideal in my head. Why do I treat myself like that, when it would never occur to me to compare anyone else that way? There isn't a "right" way to look or be. I know that first hand, seeing so many beautifully different people. So why do my "flaws" stand out to me so much? 

I don't know what the answer is. Maybe it's slightly taboo to think highly of yourself in our culture? Maybe we're taught what the "ideal" human being looks like from a young age and struggle to a achieve that? Maybe being self-depricating has become incorrectly associated with humility? I can at least practice looking at myself the way I do others. It helps immensely.  

As I've practiced this over time, I've noticed that my unwillingness to be photographed has slowly faded. I'm concentrating on moments AND appearances, and finding the beauty in both. We're not anonymous human faces. We have beautiful lives and personalities and there are so many people to whom our beautiful faces are precious. 
16 Oct 11:55

Out Parameters, Move Semantics, and Stateful Algorithms—Eric Niebler

In this article, Eric Niebler discusses an issue of API design regarding the age-old question of out parameters versus return-by-value, this time in light of move semantics. He uses std::getline as his example.

Out Parameters, Move Semantics, and Stateful Algorithms

by Eric Niebler

From the article:

I think getline is a curious example because what looks at first blush like a pure out parameter is, in fact, an in/out parameter; on the way in, getline uses the passed-in buffer’s capacity to make it more efficient. This puts getline into a large class of algorithms that work better when they have a chance to cache or precompute something.

 

03 Jul 01:48

a song for freud

21 Jun 17:50

Public Censorship And Private Speech

by Ken White

If you want to stand in my living room and shout about how the Inuit control alpaca production through a conspiracy with hip-hop record labels, and I think you're a demented freak and ask you to leave, most people probably won't say I'm censoring you. Most people recognize that I am not the government, and most people realize that I have my own rights in my living room — including rights of free expression (which allow me to determine what message gets broadcast from my living room) and even property rights 5 to control my own home.

People get fuzzier on this concept when it's a business that doesn't want to provide you with a living room in which to spout your theories. Maybe it's because people incorrectly conflate big, seemingly impersonal entities, whether they are public or private. Maybe it's anti-Citizens-United sentiment that businesses don't have rights and therefore have no right to object to you using their living rooms as a platform to trash-talk the Inuit.

But I put it to you: when a business doesn't want to give you a platform for your message, that's only "censorship" in the most weak-tea sort of way; it's only "censorship" in the sense that it is censorship for me to kick your nutter ass out of my living room because you're frightening the kids and embarrassing me in front of the neighbors.

This week there was a tempest in a Twitter when folks discovered that Kickstarter was hosting a campaign for a "pickup artist" book called "Above the Game" by a guy named Ken Hoinsky. Maybe you're fortunate enough not to be familiar with the PUA genre. Remember the guys who wrote guides about how to win at Mortal Kombat? Imagine they wrote a guide to interacting with women. "If she smiles, then UP UP B B RIGHT RIGHT UP B," where 'B' is 'be a total douche.'" Look, there's nothing wrong with wandering around wanting to get laid; it's the human condition. But there are ways to make it even less dignified than usual, and one way is to approach the prospect of sex like it's the secret cow level on Diablo, where the person you are facing has defenses you need to overcome before you can nail them.

Anyway, some folks pointed out that Ken Hoinksy, like a lot of PUAs and their fans, had some thoroughly creepifying ideas about human interactions. People expressed revulsion to Kickstarter that they were providing a platform. Kickstarter let the book's campaign complete, but today apologized, made a donation to an anti-abuse charity, and decided that they aren't going to host PUA stuff any more:

Third, we are prohibiting “seduction guides,” or anything similar, effective immediately. This material encourages misogynistic behavior and is inconsistent with our mission of funding creative works. These things do not belong on Kickstarter.

You can just imagine how this is going to play. It's cropping up on the Kickstarter comments already:

I can't believe you guys just laid down and took this abuse from the man-hating organizations who see everything as rape. I'm disgusted by your decision.

Your comment that seduction guide encourage "misogynistic" behavior is also incredibly offensive and sexist. How about you treat things equally between the sexes rather than immediately use terminology and words that place men in the immediate spot of wrongdoing? Kickstart, you're disgusting and I'm done with you.

Author Handsy McCrawlspace is also claiming he's been terribly wronged.

I am fatigued at the thought of all the "the feminazi wimmenz are censoring us!" rhetoric this will engender.

Look: if anyone wants the government to punish people for publishing PUA dreck, I'll be the first to seek pro bono counsel for the defendants. If anyone wants to pass laws banning the sale of this sad and creepy shit, I'll fight them. If anyone wants to sue PUAs on some half-assed theory that they are responsible for what demented individuals do, I'll contest it.

But if a private company, seeking to develop its own brand, decides it doesn't want to carry pickup artist manuals, that's their free speech, and it's just as legitimate as mine. I don't want to invite a pickup artist to my living room to give a talk to my friends because I think they're ridiculous and repulsive. That's my right. Kickstarter has decided they don't want to host PUA manuals. That's their right. Is Kickstarter motivated in part by money — by a calculated decision that their target audience is more creeped out than enthused by PUAs? Well I certainly hope so; they are a business. That's their right. Don't like it? Don't support Kickstarter, and try to convince others not to support Kickstarter. Is the decision inconsistent with some Kickstarter claim to openness and neutrality? Call them out on it. Look for another platform that takes all campaigns without regard to content, and do your part to help that platform succeed, instead. (Assuming, of course, that you really mean it — assuming that you really think that businesses should be viewpoint-neutral, and there's no campaign that would get you upset at Kickstarter.)

But if you decry it as "censorship," you are weakening the term. You're using it to mean "this non-governmental actor is not exercising its rights the way I would in their place." You're helping to promote ignorance about rights and blurring the line between public and private. If you're calling it censorship, let me ask you: may I come over to your house at a time convenient to me and stand in your living room and explain why you're wrong in a sonorous and condescending voice? If not, why not? You censor.

[ Clark note: I agree with Ken's last paragraph and disagree with the rest. I'll write a post within a week or so rather than clutter up the comments. ]

Public Censorship And Private Speech © 2007-2013 by the authors of Popehat. This feed is for personal, non-commercial use only. Using this feed on any other site is a copyright violation. No scraping.

13 May 10:13

Case 93: You Take the High Road

A certain nun was prone to pester master Bawan for his wisdom. One day she said: Say something of high-level languages and low-level languages.

Bawan replied: First fetch me the best bottle of huangjiu to be found in the Province of Two Turbulent Rivers.

The nun journeyed to this province and returned a week later with a bottle of dark liquid.

Bawan took a sip and remarked: this huangjiu is too sweet. A superior bottle may be found hidden in our own cellars, though the way to it is laden with traps. Now heed carefully what I say...

The master then gave the nun a most detailed set of instructions, beginning with which direction to face, which foot to put first and which second; how many steps to go before turning right and how many then before turning left; which hands to use to climb down the well-rope, and how hard to pull the earring on the second stone statue in the third alcove before crossing the Room of Cleverly-Hidden Poison Spears.

The nun followed the directions and returned within the hour, drenched in cold sweat but bearing the desired bottle.

Bawan took a sip and nodded his approval. The nun bowed and went out, enlightened.

That evening, a monk of the same clan approached master Bawan and asked: what can you say of high-level languages and low-level languages?

In a low slurred voice, the master replied: I have no wisdom to give on this matter. But fetch me the best rice in the Province of Two Turbulent Rivers, and I will tell you how to get a week’s peace and two free bottles of huangjiu.

14 Apr 03:53

The Hedonistic Hypothetical

by ozymandias42

I first noticed this hypothetical in the comment section of Scott’s post about how polyamory is boring. To wit:

Comfort is irrelevant. It works, for society, over the long run. I want to have a harem of the 10,000 most beautiful women to screw whenever I want. That would make me comfortable. It’s also bad news for I would hope are obvious reasons.

To which I reply: no, you really don’t. In fact, pretty much the only reason someone would want a harem of 10,000 women is to show off how rich they are that they’re capable of having 10,000 women. I mean, there are only 365 days in a year; either you only have sex with about a hundred of your harem, in which case the extra 9,900 are pretty useless, or you are constantly having shitty sex with new people who don’t understand how to get you off. And imagine the politics about who gets to be in the favored 100! It’d be a headache.

So really the idea that people will attempt to have harems of 10,000 women is a pretty shitty argument against people being in relationships they want to be in, because no one actually wants to have a harem of 10,000 women. You might think you do: possibly because you don’t understand how big ten thousand is; possibly because it sounds like the sort of thing hedonistic people are supposed to want; possibly because you’re a carrier of the Protestant Ethic and you feel like people being happy has to be sinful somehow.

This belief is surprisingly common across several different areas of life:

  • If I don’t diet, I will eat NOTHING BUT TWINKIES!
  • If I don’t exercise self-control, I will DO NOTHING BUT HAVE SEX!
  • If women had libidos like men, everyone would fuck constantly until CIVILIZATION WAS DESTROYED!*
  • If we don’t force children to learn, they’ll WATCH TELEVISION ALL DAY AND NEVER LEARN ANYTHING!
  • If you don’t believe in God, what’s stopping you from RAPING AND MURDERING PEOPLE?

The answers, respectively: if you eat a Twinkie-only diet, you will get a stomachache. If you try to do nothing but have sex, you will get hungry and sore and bored of sex. Gay men are, of course, noted for their lack of valuable artistic contributions to the world. Non-depressed people generally do not watch TV all day every day. Most people do not want to rape and murder people. These are really obvious facts.

I’ll call it the Hedonistic Hypothetical: the idea that if people give in to temptation they will do literally nothing else but give in to temptation. Instances of the Hedonistic Hypothetical are particularly common about sex, food, and kids, but they can be said about pretty much any kind of pleasurable thing.

Sure, if you eat whatever you want, you will probably eat more Twinkies than is strictly healthy, and kids left to their own devices will probably watch more TV than is best for the growth of their minds. There’s probably even one person who was like “I would have raped that lady, but God is watching!” instead of “let me rationalize why rape is okay according to my religion.” I’m not saying that a life of unrestrained hedonism is the best for everyone; self-control is useful. I myself often choose to have fewer Skittles than I want! (Twinkies are gross.)

What I am saying is that a life of unrestrained hedonism does not look the way you think it looks. “As much physical pleasure as you want” is not the same thing as “constant physical pleasure.” Stop pretending they’re the same thing.

*sorry, if I didn’t have self-control I really would pick on the Heartiste formerly known as Roissy all day. In this case the Hedonistic Hypothetical really is true.


13 Apr 21:29

Why is it called Applebee's?

by Jesse
"Why is it called Applebee's if it doesn't have a picture of bees? It only has a picture of an apple?!?"
12 Apr 23:44

Collection of Colby Quotes

by Jesse


We have collected some of our favorite quotes from Colby over time... might as well record them here as part of his official record.


Common as a 2-Year Old

  • “Why?”
  • "I don't want no anything"
  • “Thomas and hims friends”, Every time he sings the song Thomas and his friends


10/9/12
Colby: “Smell my butt!
Mommy: “Colby, that’s  not polite!”
Colby: “Sorry Mommy. Please smell my butt?!?!”


10/15/12
Q: "Colby, is that your truck?"
A: "I think it is...or somebody else's."


10/16/12
"Sour patch kids are my medicine" on a day he wasn’t feeling the best


10/16/12
After a 4.6 earthquake rattled the house, Colby said "Let's get out of here!”


He wasn’t that rattled, because half an hour later he said “I want the house to shake again!”


10/30/12
“I got a booboo on my butt. Kiss my butt mommy!”


2/18/13
“Put that booger back in there!” to his mother, after she had wiped his nose with a tissue and removed something that he wanted to be the one to take out.


March 2013
Colby insists that we all flush the toilet simultaneously after he uses it. It can be hard for us all to get our hands on the flusher lever, but Colby carefully watches us and says "no Jedi flushes!!!!"

(There have been times when he insisted 9 different people help him flush - all at the same time.)


3/22/13
Mommy: “Colby, could you grab me a tissue?”
Colby: “I’d be delighted to Mommy.”


3/22/13
“Get me down from here. I don’t want to be up here all day - that’s boring”, after 2 minutes of sitting on the counter with Daddy so he could try his solid vitamin for the first time.


3/29/13
When asked to read what his fortune cookie said, Colby announced: “If you give a doctor a plate, he will break the plate”


4/2/13
“If you want something to happen, it won’t happen. If you don’t want something to happen, it will happen.”


4/2/13
“Colby’s in the house! Yah!”
30 Mar 14:48

Photo





29 Mar 00:36

Photo



25 Mar 11:06

Three Things You May Not Get About the Aaron Swartz Case

by Ken

There are three things people get wrong about the prosecution and heartbreaking suicide of Aaron Swartz.

Two of those things are about the criminal justice system. They're disturbing, but not difficult to talk about.

The third thing is about depression. It's very difficult to talk about.

But I'm going to talk about it anyway.

The First Thing: Most Of What You Hear About Federal Sentencing Is Wrong.

First, people are wrong about what sort of sentence Aaron Swartz faced. They get it wrong because the media usually does a terrible job reporting on federal sentencing.

If you read about the Swartz prosecution, you saw people decrying the fact that he was facing 35 years in prison. That's more than rapists and murders serve, they say. But they are talking about the maximum possible sentences, not any sentence he was remotely likely to get. Recently in the context of another case I explained how federal sentencing works, and how it's driven by an arcane set of rules producing a recommendation that federal judges often follow — rules that on most occasions produce a result well below the maximum possible sentence.

There are a few reasons you keep hearing about maximum sentences in the media. The first is that federal sentencing is very complicated. Journalists not trained in the federal sentencing guidelines have a difficult time applying them, and prosecutors and defense attorneys are generally reluctant to give estimates. The second reason is that the government promotes misunderstanding by citing the maximum punishment in press releases, despite knowing it has very little to do with actual sentences.

The government does that for deterrence. The government does it to sound impressive. But I think the government also cites those maximum sentences because doing so obscures the vast power and discretion that federal prosecutors actually wield in federal sentencing. The sentencing guidelines provide a rather modest reduction in sentence to defendants who plead guilty. But prosecutors, by deciding which theories to pursue, can threaten a far greater gulf between a sentence after trial and a sentence after a guilty plea.

Swartz' lawyers say the government offered to recommend six months in jail if he pleaded guilty, but threatened to seek seven years if he went to trial. If the sentence is driven by a set of rules, how could they credibly make such a threat? It's because Swartz' guidelines calculation would have been driven by concepts like "relevant conduct" (that is, what actions should be considered for purposes of sentencing, whether or not those actions were charged as crimes) and "actual or intended loss" (that is, the harm done, or intended to be done, or the value taken, or intended to be taken). These are malleable concepts; the government can apply them aggressively, threatening a far longer sentence, or gently, driving a far shorter one. For instance, in prosecuting Andrew Auernheimer under the same computer fraud statute they used against Swartz, the federal prosecutors argued that the "loss" in the case included AT&T's cost of mailing tens of thousands of notifications to iPad users, thus driving Auernheimer's sentence to 41 months. Orin Kerr — who is taking on the appeal pro bono — explains:

The largest part of Auernheimer’s sentence was due to an alleged $73,000 in loss suffered by AT&T. Under the provisions of the Sentencing Guidelines associated with 18 U.S.C. 1030, sentences are based primarily on the amount of loss caused by the crime. More dollar loss to the victim means more time in prison for the defendant. The dollar loss is calculated based on “[a]ny reasonable cost to any victim, including the cost of responding to an offense, conducting a damage assessment, and restoring the data, program, system, or information to its condition prior to the offense, and any revenue lost, cost incurred, or other damages incurred because of interruption of service.” In this case, however, AT&T did not claim any loss to its computers from the conduct. There was no interruption of service and no cost of restoring data or conducting a damage assessment. Instead, the sole assertion of loss was based how AT&T decided to notify its customers that their e-mail addresses had been obtained by Spitler and Auernheimer. First, AT&T notified its customers by e-mail. That was free, leading to a “cost” so far of zero. But then AT&T decided to follow-up the e-mail notification with paper letter notification, and the postage and paper costs amounted to about $73,000. Auernheimer’s 41-month sentence was based in substantial part on that $73,000 in loss, and he was also ordered to pay restitution in that amount.

The government can play hard or play easy. In most districts federal judges rely heavily on a Presentence Report prepared by the Probation Office that offers a proposed sentencing guideline calculation. The government decides what to send the Probation Office and what stance to take with them. In Auernheimer's case the government could easily have not bothered to send the Probation Office anything about the mailing cost, or could have said in their view the connection between the crime and the cost was too remote; it's very unlikely the Probation Office would have recommended the higher sentence, or the judge would have imposed it, if the government hadn't pushed for it. Similarly, in Swartz' case, the government could have asserted that Swartz' actions caused no loss — which was probably behind their six-month offer — or it could have taken an aggressive stance that the court should calculate loss based on the value of all of the JSTOR articles he downloaded, or the cost of MIT's investigation, or some other theory that would have resulted in a high dollar figure. Federal prosecutors don't always prevail when they take those tough stances. But they prevail often enough to make the threat entirely credible.

So: the injustice of Aaron Swartz' prosecution was not that he faced a theoretical maximum of 35 years, because that number has no particular connection to any likely sentence. The injustice was that the federal government had vast power to drive his sentence to coerce him into a plea — vast power that overwhelms the limits contemplated by the federal sentencing guidelines. What is worse, that vast power is only infrequently reported and only dimly understood.

The Second Thing: If You Think Aaron Swartz Was Singled Out For Unusual Treatment, You Aren't Paying Attention.

Second, people are wrong if they think Aaron Swartz was singled out for treatment that other more obscure people don't face every single day.

The reaction to Swartz' suicide was tribal. This was someone people knew, recognized, admired, followed, loved. People in communities that cared about Aaron Swartz were outraged by the allegations of prosecutorial misconduct, by the seeming lack of proportion displayed in the charges against him, by the arbitrary nature of him being charged when so many others who "hack" are not, by the pressure to plead guilty that he faced.

It's good to be outraged by these things. It's not good to think they are unique, or only unusual. It's not good to care only when this happens to your tribe.

Scott Greenfield, blogger and defense attorney and truth-talker, put it as bluntly as it can and should be put in several posts:

But there remains a side of this tragedy that the geek community misses. Government overreaching, "bullying" as Lessig calls it, didn't start on the day Aaron Swartz was arrested. The eulogists, friends, watchers from the Hacktivist side seem to think this was an affliction that happened only to Swartz.

Hardly. Aaron Swartz was just today's victim of government overreaching and abusive prosecution, largely undistinguishable from the multitudes who came before him. But you don't know about them, as they weren't 14-year-old RSS code writers. So you didn't notice. You didn't care. They didn't exist to you, even as they faced 50 year sentences just like Swartz.

Greenspun continues:

"A daunting prospect for anyone. Apparently too daunting for a 26-year-old."

Absolutely daunting, as it is for the tens of thousands of others who were forced to endure the unwanted attention of the government.

So it wasn't on the radar of the computer geeks until one of their own was the target? They weren't aware of how daunting it was for all the others who came before Aaron Swartz, some younger than the 26-year-old, some with children whose lives would be ruined because of a parent's stupidity, some who, like Swartz, did wrong but certainly nothing wrong enough to justify the government laying waste to their lives? These cases, these lives, were the precursors to the harsh treatment of Aaron Swartz, and yet you didn't know or care that any of this was happening because it didn't touch someone you knew.

Now you know what we know. Will your anger and interest end when Aaron Swartz is buried, and you can go back to writing code and thinking cool ideas? If you want to honor his memory, perhaps you might want to put all those brilliant minds to use changing the system that drove Swartz to take his own life. It's still here, and it's still just as bad as it was in Swartz's case. And it will continue to be, even as you move back to your more pleasant pursuits.

People think the system failed or abused or singled out Aaron Swartz. This is the system, dammit, and if you think that Aaron Swartz faced what he did because he's a hacker and the government has it out for hackers, then I'm here to tell you that you're full of shit. Aaron Swartz had a great, well-funded defense team and a healthy support system. Most people don't. If you read this blog, you know the types of things the system does to people, including people with far less ability to fight back. The system sends sick people to their death in a system that can't care for them because they smoked weed. The system denies its prisoners medical care until they have to have their genitals amputated in a fruitless effort to delay an early death from cancer. The system sticks people into cells and very literally forgets them until they've spent a few days drinking their own urine. The system strives and strains to execute people based solely on the word of serial perjurers — serial perjurers whose record of perjury they have concealed from the defense. The system prizes junk science so long as that junk science supports its allegations. The system treats invocation of constitutional rights as evidence of guilt. The system reacts with petulant fury to being questioned. The system detects and punishes law enforcement and prosecutorial misconduct so rarely that bad actors are hardly ever subjected to real consequences.

These things happen every day to people less photogenic, talented, and charismatic than Aaron Swartz. You care, or you don't. If you only care about Aaron's case, or the cases of people in the same tribe as Aaron, you're not a serious person.

The Third Thing: People Assume They Understand Depression. Most Don't.

The third thing people don't get is depression.

People think that the prosecution of Aaron Swartz must have been unusually oppressive and abusive, because only a rare abuse of power could have driven such a brilliant and promising young man to suicide. People saying that may have been depressed at some point in their life — but they haven't experienced the disorder major depression.

I have. I've fought it for fifteen years. People — people of good faith, sensitive people, thoughtful people, smart people — don't tend to fathom major depression if they haven't had it.

Depression is not like sadness. Everyone has been sad. Everyone has been depressed on one occasion or another. But clinical depression is something else entirely.

What is it like?

Forgive me, but I'd like for you to imagine the worst day of your life. Maybe someone you love was killed in an accident. Maybe a loved one got a terrifying diagnosis. Maybe you abruptly lost a job you need to support your family. Maybe you caught your husband or wife cheating on you. Maybe you found out your son or daughter is addicted to drugs. Maybe you experienced some dreadful public humiliation.

Remember how that felt, at the worst part of that day? Now imagine you feel that way most of the time, for months at a time.

Think of the most stressed and worried you have ever been in your life, and then imagine that your stomach feels like that all the time.

Imagine that you are constantly gripped with overwhelming feelings of dread and crushing hopelessness — irrational, not governed by real risks or challenges, but still inexorable.

Imagine that you are often fatigued to the point of weakness and irritability because you can't get to sleep until late at night, or because your mind consistently shakes you awake at four in the morning, racing with worry about the day's activities as your stomach roils and knots.

Imagine that most social interactions become painful, the cause of nameless dread. Imagine that when the phone rings or your computer dings with a new email you get a short, hot, foul shot of adrenaline, sizzling in your fingertips and bitter in your mouth.

Imagine that, however much you understand the causes of these symptoms intellectually, no matter how well you know that you are fully capable of meeting the challenges you face and surviving them, no matter how well you grasp that these feelings are a symptom of a disease, you can't stop feeling this way.

Imagine that you have moments — maybe even minutes — where you forget how you feel, but those moments are almost worse, because when they end and you remember the feelings rush back in like a dark tide that much more painfully.

Imagine that you know you should talk to someone about how you feel — but you can't bring yourself to do so. Have you ever been so nauseated — from illness or from drinking — that you can't bear for someone to touch you or talk to you? Imagine feeling like that — that the human interactions that might ease the pain are too painful to endure, that every word on the subject is a blow.

After a while, this wears you down a bit.

I can't know what was in Aaron Swartz' mind. But I know this: if he suffered from major depression, it may not have been the prospect of federal prison that was intolerable. It might have been the prospect of thinking about the case, about talking about it, about the weight of people's concern for him, about the crawling discomfort of answering their questions, about the brutal fatigue of putting on a game face every day.

If Aaron Swartz had major depression, he might have felt overwhelmed by far less unusual or frightening stimuli. That doesn't exculpate the government. The government is responsible for an unjust prosecution. But the depression may have taken Aaron Swartz' life.

Depression doesn't look like you think it does.

Some people think that Aaron Swartz must have been driven to suicide by extraordinary treatment because he didn't act the way a depressed person at risk of suicide acts. They think, correctly, that Aaron Swartz was an extraordinary man: brilliant, very accomplished at a young age, with a gift for winning people over. That's not what a depressed person looks like, is it? Surely someone in enough pain to take their own life would be more overtly distressed, more visibly unable to cope. Surely someone who finds human interactions so difficult would not be so good at them.

In fact, people with major depression are capable of great things, including great leadership. Consider these:

Abraham Lincoln once wrote, "I am the most miserable man alive. To remain as I am is impossible. I must die or get better." Winston Churchill echoed the same reaction when he told his doctor, "I don't like to stand by the side of a ship and look down into the water. A second's action would end everything. Is much known about worry, Charles?"

This is good, in a way: it means that depression is not an impediment to achieving great things. But it also means this: you might not be able to tell if someone suffers from depression.

People with depression become very adept at maintaining good appearances. Consider what this brave reporter wrote during her paper's series on mental health:

I have been hospitalized twice for “suicidal ideation,” most recently for eight days in 2009 with a diagnosis of “major depressive order and anxiety disorder,” according to my records. I take four medications a day and have my counselor’s name and number in my emergency contacts on my cell phone.

This will be news to most of the people who know me, family members included. That’s because with lots of help from my husband, a lot of exercise (one of my therapies) and medication, I’m able to keep my depression and breakdowns private.

. . . .

Most people with a mental health disorder are able to manage their illness, many so well that our disorders are invisible outside our homes. With the help of counselors, medication, even hospitalizations, we work, raise families, volunteer in our communities, run companies, hold elected office and go to school with little indication of what’s at work inside us.

And even inside their homes . . . even to those closest to them — people with depression can put on a brave face. Aaron Swartz' girlfriend believes that his death was "not caused by depression," in part because he did not show the familiar signs of depression in his last days. I mean her no disrespect — she has my profound sympathy for her grief — but she might not know, even if she knows him better than anyone. She might not fully grasp how he felt. That's not a reflection on her, or on her relationship with Swartz. It's a reflection of depression. Many loved ones will learn to see the subtle signs. For instance, my wife interrogates me when I stop blogging for a while. But being close to someone with depression is not the same as having depression yourself, and doesn't mean you really understand it. My wife is the love of my life and my best friend and a talented and remarkably empathetic clinical psychologist. But she doesn't fully get it, and I pray she never will, because she hasn't experienced it. Not everybody shows overt mood swings. Not everybody retreats from the world. Some people soldier on, their outward face may not reflecting how they feel. Many people with depression don't want to burden loved ones with the depth of their feelings. Many don't want to discuss their feelings because that human interaction is so painful in the depths of depression. And many are ashamed.

Shame is powerful. A ridiculous percentage of the population takes psychotropic medications, but there are still strong social taboos against discussing mental illness, and certainly against admitting to suffering from it. That, too, inhibits people from talking about their feelings. People worry that if they admit to depression, it will be used against them. Indeed, I suspect that this post will be used against me, if not by a litigation opponent than by one of my various stalkers. (Come at me, bro!)

My point is this: it's a mistake to conclude you know about how Aaron Swartz felt because you observe how he acted and what he achieved. It's a mistake to use Aaron Swartz' tragic suicide to measure the nature of the government's prosecution with him. There are many things to condemn in that prosecution, and further inquiry may reveal serious misconduct. But if someone suffers from depression, you can't infer things from their reactions the way you can from someone who doesn't suffer. It's very difficult, if you haven't experienced it, to imagine what it feels like, and even more difficult to imagine how it distorts your reaction to stress. I don't mean to excuse prosecutors. I mean to point out that life is complicated. It's entirely possible that, simultaneously, the government wantonly overreached and that Aaron Swartz' death was driven primarily by a pain that would have tormented him even if he had never been charged.

If people reacted to Aaron Swartz' death by becoming concerned with how the criminal justice system treats everyone, and by being open to discussions of how depression changes people, that would be one more way he left the world better than he found it.

(By the way, I'm just fine. Thanks for asking.)

Three Things You May Not Get About the Aaron Swartz Case © 2007-2013 by the authors of Popehat. This feed is for personal, non-commercial use only. Using this feed on any other site is a copyright violation. No scraping.