In brief: A line of severe storms moved through Houston on Thursday evening bringing heavy rainfall, and instances of damaging winds and tornadoes. We’ll have a full rundown tomorrow, but it has been a wild few hours. The point of this post is to let you know that that’s it for the night. And after some residual showers tomorrow, that’s it for spring storm season in Houston.
Wow, that was strong
Yes it was. We expected some severe weather this afternoon and evening, and forecasted as much this morning. But it’s fair to see we did not quite anticipate the severity of what developed. There are widespread reports of trees downed, damaged fences, and other significant problems associated with straight-line winds and a couple of tornadoes that developed this evening. On the excitable dogs scale from 1 to 10, this was an 11.5.
Damage near Cypress this evening. (Harris County Fire Marshal’s Office)
Electricity remains a significant casualty. In Harris County, as of 7:30 pm CT, 40 percent of customers are without power. These storms actually weakened as they tracked across the region, so the outages are even worse just to the west of Houston, where power is out to 75 percent of customers in Waller County. It is beyond the scope of what we can forecast to predict when the power will come back on, but the storms are clearing the area relatively quickly. Crews should be able to respond to outages beginning this evening, and work overnight.
So what happened? Some of the parameters we look at to gauge severe weather, including instability, convective available potential energy, shear, and helicity all came in at or above expected levels as the storms approached the Houston metro area late this afternoon. This allowed them to bloom and produce destructive storms.
What comes next
The major line of storms has already moved through central Houston, and it is steadily weakening as it as moves toward the coast. If it has stopped raining at your location, that is basically it. We may see a few trailing showers in the next couple of hours, but nothing serious. Tonight looks quiet.
Tomorrow a final low pressure system will pass Houston, and may bring some additional showers to locations along and south of Interstate 10. I don’t expect these to be particularly severe, and they should develop mostly south of where the strong storms were today.
And then? That’s it. Spring is over. High pressure begins building over the area this weekend and we’re unlikely to see significant rain for days, if not weeks. Spring storm season ended with a fiery finale today.
In brief: There will be some showers this morning south and east of US-59 to the coast. Some thunder is possible. No severe weather is expected. The rest of the forecast through Monday and Tuesday is quiet and turning hotter.
We have a few showers southwest of Houston that will push in this morning. The steadiest rain will be south and southeast of the city, areas that saw a bit less action yesterday. We then clear out and dry out for later and tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday. Highs will nudge into the 90s with lows slowly increasing through the 70s into next week.
Trying to make sense of Thursday
This will be a different post than typical. I want to walk through what happened yesterday from a forecaster’s perspective. About 750,000 customers remain without power this morning, and because of the extensive, widespread damage, this number will very slowly decrease today and tomorrow. Some may be without power until next week.
So how did we get here? As a refresh, here is Eric’s post from yesterday morning. We were all really focused on the threat for heavy rain, and with the high risk in place yesterday to our north, that shouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, 4 to 5 inches of rain did fall as expected, basically north of highway 105 through Conroe.
Rain totals on Thursday lined up really well with the high risk bullseye that was in place to our north. Flash flooding was a common problem in many places yesterday. (NSSL MRMS)
Eric did note the severe weather and correctly underscored the chances of wind and an isolated tornado. The Storm Prediction Center had the right idea on severe weather yesterday too. But again, I think most of us the significant messaging was heavily focused on the rain.
Through most of yesterday morning, not a whole lot seemed to change. Eric, Dwight, and I met up for lunch at a Pappas BBQ but not the one we originally planned on, which, thanks Apple Maps. Or Google Maps. Who’s to say? Anyway, we touched briefly on the day’s weather but were not particularly concerned about anything else happening. We checked radar while leaving and all looked good.
I got back to my desk and noticed a few people pinging me about a Reed Timmer tweet discussing rain-wrapped tornado potential in southeast Texas. Reed’s a good guy and a very smart meteorologist, but he also has tons of enthusiasm. His brand is to dominate and never stop chasing. My first reaction admittedly was to roll my eyes, but then I checked out the HRRR model, one of our hourly updating high-resolution weather models. Indeed, it lit up with supercells by 2 PM. But it was 2 PM. And there were no supercells.
So clearly it was overdoing it, and it would be necessary to watch subsequent runs to see what changes, as well as radar to observe the evolution of the storms. I decided to look at some other data, and I was surprised to see that despite clouds, haze, and mist (or even a heavy drizzle at times), the atmosphere was extremely unstable over the area.
The atmosphere over Houston around 2 PM on Thursday could be classified as highly unstable. (NOAA SPC)
And when you would dig deeper into the models, everything pointed to severe potential. But we also just went through this a few days ago with a major hail threat that basically failed to materialize with any consequence in Houston. In that case, we had the same situation in theory: Impressive instability and an atmosphere primed to rock. As a meteorologist, you look at this two ways: We just came off a semi-bust and you need to make sure you are more confident in something than normal before pushing it, and secondly you also can’t deny that the ingredients were there. A tornado watch was issued, which was a little surprising, though given the parameters there was no good reason to argue much against it.
When I looked at model data, it appeared that any supercell risk would track from the southwest to northeast. I even highlighted a cell around Spring at about 4:25 that I thought was showing signs of trending toward something more meaningful. I went to pick up my oldest from school and came back intending to help him do some homework. Even by about 5:10 or so, it seemed pretty straightforward: A line of severe storms with gusty, maybe localized damaging winds was moving through Brenham and toward Waller County, and we’d probably get it through by 7 or 8 PM and that would be that.
Radar at 5:10 PM showing a line of severe storms west of Waller County with heavy rain as predicted to the north of The Woodlands and Conroe. (RadarScope)
Things began to change quickly about 15 minutes later. It was evident that rotation had begun to develop on the leading edge of the bowing line near Bellville. And it seems likely that a tornado may have been put down just east of there shortly thereafter. That is not necessarily uncommon. It’s often how we get our tornadoes locally, but it’s usually brief and disappears after 5 to 10 minutes. And indeed, the rotation weakened some, but at 5:35, it flared back up again, just west of FM 359 to the east of Bellville. Thereafter, it absolutely exploded near Pine Island and just south of 290 in Prairie View. By 5:40 to 5:45, we clearly had a problem.
A two panel radar image at 5:43 PM showing tremendous rain on the left and vigorous, violent winds and rotation on the right, centered just south of Pine Island. (RadarScope)
I have been in Houston for about 12 years as of this week, and I cannot recall seeing this type of velocity signature (the right-hand panel) show up in this area. When you see this as a meteorologist, it either means a violent tornado is underway, or destructive winds are probable. At times, it looked like you could pick out a debris signature on radar that would essentially confirm a tornado, but it never took off, which led me to believe that this was becoming a major straight line wind event.
I had been texting a bit with Justin Ballard, the Houston Chronicle’s fine meteorologist earlier about the tornado watch. We both expressed some skepticism it would produce. He texted me at 6:07 in the middle of this saying, “Yeah, that doesn’t look like a bad decision after all.” Yes, many of us talk to one another. Yes, we occasionally have opinions on things.
Anyway, this continued to march east-southeast and slowly expand. At this point, it becomes straightforward: Monitor it and warn and clear. I had posted to Twitter in a tone I very, very rarely ever use. I don’t throw around language like “Treat this like a tornado” very often. We had gotten very few damage reports up to that point, but the radar was indicating 110 mph winds down to about 2,500 feet. By 6:23 PM, radar showed 120 mph winds down below 2,000 feet approaching Oak Forest. Does all that reach the ground? No. But a lot of it can. It also made me gravely concerned for the downtown high rises.
Insane winds down to about 2,000 feet moving into the northwest Loop at 6:23 PM. Whether or not it was a tornado, the outcome would be similar. (RadarScope)
We’ll find out more today and tomorrow about specifics on damage and what was a tornado or straight line winds. Whatever the case, this was one of the most ferocious storms I’ve ever seen. This was a smaller scale version of what occurred in Iowa a few years back, when they had 140 mph winds down to about 1,000 feet but over a wider area. Whether or not this gets classified as a derecho will remain to be seen. I think it probably falls just short of that metric because of some discontinuity in the damage report path, but honestly, does it matter? It will take time to pick up from this one, and we hope our readers are safe. A major kudos goes out to the many media meteorologists and NWS meteorologists that assisted in keeping as many people safe and informed as possible. Saving lives is rarely a literal thing for a meteorologist. I am thinking that it was for many last night.
I’ll close with a bit of a sobering note: Hurricane season begins in about 2 weeks. What many of you witnessed last night would be experienced not over a few minutes but over several hours over a large area if a truly potent hurricane found its way into the Houston area. By living in this region, you have to accept the risks associated with that. We know a lot about flooding. Most of us know about surge. Very few knew about wind and what it’s really like. Many do now. Use this experience to inform your preparation for hurricane season just in case. Houston has been through an absolute meat grinder of weather disasters in the last 10 years. Candidly, it sucks, but we should know enough now to prepare for the next one.
“Judge Judy” Sheindlin sued Accelerate360 Media, the parent company of the National Enquirer and InTouch Weekly, for a story ran in both publications falsely claiming that she was helping the Menendez brothers secure a retrial for their 1989 murder conviction. What do you think?
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In this era of economic turmoil, climate catastrophe, and cliques of cool teens just waiting to make fun of your shoes, we live in a heightened state of fear. We’re afraid of the world and afraid of each other—but not nearly as afraid as we should be! McSweeney’s contributor (and co-executive producer on Family Guy) Evan Waite’s absurdly hilarious survival guide, Life Wants You Dead: A Calm, Rational, and Totally Legit Guide to Scaring Yourself Safe demonstrates that being afraid of literally everything is the only guaranteed way to stay safe.
Today, we’re happy to offer an excerpt from this important and very funny guide.
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Ruining Your Credit So No One Wants to Steal Your Identity
Over sixteen million people a year are victims of identity theft. Falling prey to this scam can increase your insurance premiums, give you trouble with the IRS and fade you from photos like Marty McFly.
It can happen to anyone, especially you. And that’s because you’ve been fiscally responsible, which is very irresponsible. Having good credit is the financial equivalent of strutting through a dive bar dripping with diamonds. Why not also wear a sign that says “Come and get it”? The solution, my friend, is to wreck your finances so badly that criminals treat your identity like a dead skunk and steer clear.
Your payment history plays a big role in determining your credit score, so try to pay your bills late. Consider cultivating a grudge by paying with a greasy, food-stained check, with the words “I spit on your remittance schedule!” in the memo line, perhaps with a few “hahas” at the end. To expedite this process, you can also simply not pay your bills at all.
Identity thieves will try to drain your bank account, so beat them to it. Buy a pool table! Don’t worry if it doesn’t quite fit in your house. Lease a speedboat! It doesn’t matter that you’re two states away from the nearest body of water. Just throw cash in a ditch! I can share the coordinates for the perfect ditch for this, actually. Turning your account into a smoking hole where money once was is a great way to ward off thieves.
Next, max out your credit cards. Consider taking out a business loan for that idea you had for a bakery that also gives haircuts. When the health department shuts you down because there are beard clumps in the biscotti, double down by taking out a second mortgage on your house. Maybe you’ll be evicted! If your spouse finds out and begs you to stop, understand this to be misguided and maybe a little selfish. Your identity is at stake! Consider divorce, which is a handy way to drag your credit through the mud.
According to recent data that probably exists, there is a direct correlation between how stinky you are and your likelihood of becoming the victim of a data breach. Criminals tend to avoid taking on the identity of unwashed slobs, so forgoing bathing could be your ticket to financial security. Grow mutton chops and eat oatmeal without a spoon. Don’t change your socks, ever. Given that this wards off only those who are nearby and downwind, try to broadcast your putrid state on social media. Think about adding stink lines to selfies.
I know it can be scary to put these ideas into practice, but trust me, it works. I used to lead a dangerously successful life, with a great job and a nice house. I had a sweet car, and would drive it around where everyone could see. I was just asking for trouble. But through a series of strategically poor decisions, and a frightening online poker addiction I chose not to seek help for, I spiraled down into the gutter and haven’t looked back since. Now I live under a bridge, and no one wants to steal my identity or even make eye contact with me when I ask them for their leftovers.
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PARIS—Calling its latest piece a “must-have for anyone with a discerning eye” who is preparing to undergo bariatric surgery, the prestigious jewelry firm Cartier introduced a new diamond-encrusted gastric lap-band Friday retailing for $97,000. “The Maison Cartier is pleased to introduce a high-end implanted medical…
CHARLOTTE, NC—Offering its customers a way to commemorate their consumption of a healthy and fiber-rich meal, fruit and vegetable producer Dole announced Wednesday that its salad kits now included a framed certificate confirming the bearer of the document had eaten a salad. “By executive order of the Salad Institute…
THE CASTLE OF ISIDORE—Scolding the associate magister for his inappropriate use of guild resources, the High Council at Calazar Keep reportedly reprimanded wizard Ashkahol the Geomancer for watching porn on his work orb Tuesday. “We’ve told Ashkahol repeatedly that we’re trying to maintain a professional sorcery…
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Police said the woman driving the vehicle exhibited signs of intoxication and had been driving eastbound on Westheimer Road when she failed to stay in a single lane and drove onto the sidewalk before hitting the pedestrians.
This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.
A reader writes:
My work is having us read about the “five languages of appreciation in the workplace” in advance of one of our quarterly all-hands meetings, where we will have “discuss and share.” From what I read, it seems like it’s a pretty direct attempt to apply the “five love languages” to the workplace. Even ignoring my discomfort with the five love languages due to its homophobic roots, I can’t get over that they kept physical touch as one of the languages. They couch it in words like “work appropriate,” but it still feels like encouraging people to physically touch others (or accept being touched) in the name of showing appreciation.
As might be obvious, physical touch is not my “work language of appreciation.” Instead, physical touch from coworkers/managers will likely cause me to utterly shut down and will definitely ruin my ability to work with the person in the future. But what if it’s a coworker’s preferred language? How do I preemptively get across “do not touch me” without seeming dismissive of other people’s preferences? And should I say something about it in this meeting?
When I first read your letter, I was sure you were wrong and they hadn’t kept “touch” as an appreciation language in the workplace version of the book franchise (which was originally created for romantic relationships)! Surely they wouldn’t have.
I checked. They did.
WTF.
I searched further. They cite things like handshakes, fist bumps, high fives, a friendly squeeze on the shoulder, or a pat on the back. Okay, not the worst, and some people are comfortable with that kind of touch at work. But I’m as astonished as you are that they kept it in the workplace version of their framework.
You know what makes people feel appreciated at work? MONEY.
Not just money! Plenty of people are unhappy in well-paying jobs because they feel their contributions are never acknowledged and their efforts go unappreciated. Other forms of recognition matter too, like praise for a job well done (given publicly or privately, depending on the person’s preferences) and rewards that reflect performance (like opportunities to take on more interesting work or higher-profile projects or professional development or whatever is appropriate and the person actually wants).
But there is no great mystery here that we need to solve with a “five languages” framework.
Their full list of appreciation languages for work is: words of affirmation (that’s praise), quality time (that’s listening to the person and making sure they have time with their manager), acts of service (helping people with their work), tangible gifts (money or otherwise), and what they’re calling “appropriate physical touch.”
It’s really just a marketing ploy — the “five love languages” book had tremendous success and so now they’re trying to shoehorn the concept into other contexts to sell more books.
I bit the bullet and bought the book so I could see what they’re actually saying about touch. They acknowledge that it’s controversial, that some people don’t want it at all, and that it can be “problematic.” They mention that as they were testing their theories, numerous managers “repeatedly expressed concern” about the inclusion of touch (no shit!). They say that it was rarely anyone’s primary language of appreciation at work (again, no shit!). But they go on to say that they believe affirming touches can be meaningful expressions of appreciation to some colleagues.
I still say marketing ploy, but they didn’t ask me.
As for what to do, I strongly doubt you’re going to be pushed to give or accept touch that you’re not comfortable with. But if you need some ammunition, the book itself says: “How can you determine which coworkers may view physical touch as an expression of appreciation? Observe the behavior of your colleagues. Do they frequently pat others on the back, give high fives, or hug others? If so, you can explore whether receiving an affirming touch from you would be received as an expression of appreciation. Typically, those individuals who freely touch others in an affirming manner are the same individuals who would welcome affirming touches from others. On the other hand, if you never see a colleague touch others and … their body stiffens when someone touches them, then you will know that physical touch will not be received as appreciation.”
I don’t think we should ever be “exploring” touch at work to the point where we need to see someone’s body “stiffen when someone touches them” (and I think there’s plenty more wrong with that quoted paragraph), but they’re pretty clearly saying that people shouldn’t be required to give or accept physical touch at work, regardless of what anyone else’s “appreciation language” may be. So if pushed at this meeting, you can cite that — but I think you’re more likely to find a lot of coworkers reacting like you are (and it sounds like the book’s authors found that too).
