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23 Feb 05:36

Roma Grab Third Place With 3-0 Win Over Cremonese

by Jimmy Miotto
Roma's Ivorian defender #05 Obite Evan Ndicka (R) celebrates with teammates after scoring his team's second goal during the Italian Serie A football match between AS Roma and Cremonese at the Olympic Stadium in Rome on Febuary 22, 2026. (Photo by Filippo MONTEFORTE / AFP via Getty Images) | AFP via Getty Images

In the lead-up to this match, everything seemed to be going Roma’s way: Juventus, Napoli, and Milan were all handed unexpected losses, giving the Giallorossi a golden opportunity to claim possession of third place on goal differential while building some breathing room between themselves and fifth-place Juventus. Naturally, that opportunity set off a major alarm in any Romanista’s head: how would they manage to muck it up against Cremonese, a side just barely out of the relegation zone?

The good news is that for once, Roma didn’t happen. Although it looked a bit touch-and-go for the first forty-five minutes of play, this one ended a comfortable 3-0 clean sheet victory, thanks to one of the more unlikely Men of the Match we’ve seen in some time: Bryan Cristante, who also happened to celebrate his 350th appearance for the club today. Cristante powered Roma to victory with a goal and an assist, giving the impression that he was rediscovering the touch that had made him a star under Gasperini back in his Atalanta days. Yet Cristante wasn’t the only player who shone in this one; several other players either cemented their status as fixtures of the starting eleven or looked to force the club into making some tough decisions moving forward when the stakes are even higher. Here’s a deep dive.

First Half

The first half played like the kind of trap game that only becomes one if you let the anxiety turn into real mistakes. Roma had territory and the ball from the start by clocking around 60% possession throughout the first half, but the possession was mostly sterile. There were long spells of circulation outside a compact Cremonese block, with the final action missing either speed or precision.

The best moments came less from open-play incision than from pressure and set-piece gravity. Cremonese almost did Roma’s job for them when Sebastiano Luperto glanced a close-range header narrowly wide of his own goal, but that didn’t feel like a true chance created by the Giallorossi. Gianluca Mancini met Bryan Zaragoza’s delivery and thumped it off the bar in the thirty-fifth minute, but beyond that, the first half was ho-hum and suggested that Roma might have to be content with only one point against a bottom feeder of Serie A.

Second Half

The second half of this one quickly changed the tone. Gasperini came out of the break and seemed to shift Roma into more of a 4-2-3-1, and as a result, the match immediately started to look less like sterile possession with no results and more like a truly sustained series of threats. Cremonese, meanwhile, lost Martin Payero to a knee injury, and the game tilted even harder toward the Olimpico end they’d been defending all afternoon. The first serious chance was an early warning shot from Donyell Malen: a sharp effort from a tight angle that forced Emil Audero into a near-post save. Then, Roma were done rehearsing.

Roma 1 – 0 Cremonese: Bryan Cristante 59’

When Roma stopped trying to “create” and just impose, the goal finally came: a corner, delivered with intent, and Cristante attacking the space like he’s done on a thousand other corners. His header allowed Roma to turn dominance in possession into an actual goal, and even though he’s had his fair share of ups and downs at the club, this much-needed goal is still deeply appreciated.

Once Roma were in front, the half turned into a sequence of waves. Audero, who had been putting on a bit of a Manuel Neuer impression in the first half, suddenly had to deal with wave after wave of Roma attacks: Evan Ndicka was regularly involved, Donyell Malen kept getting looks, and chances kept flashing through the box. Slowly but surely, the sense grew that a second goal was less a question of “if” than “when.”

When proved to be the 77th minute.

Roma 2 – 0 Cremonese: Evan Ndicka 77’

If Roma’s first goal felt like a release, the second felt like inevitability. It was yet another corner, yet another Cristante intervention, and then Ndicka arrived with the kind of certainty you only get from an attacking center back who wants to hit the dagger. It was the sort of set-piece sequence that makes you wonder whether Roma are actually “good on corners” or whether they simply have one player who on his day turns chaos into a directed action when everyone else is still reacting. Either way, 2–0 was the moment the game stopped being a competition for three points and started being a test of just how dominantly the Giallorossi could win.

Cremonese’s plan of attack clearly collapsed after this one. They instead seemingly began to hope that Roma would get bored, allow for a counter, and let in a weird bounce to keep them in striking distance. They never got it. Instead, Roma kept the pressure on without turning the match into a track meet. The midfield maintained control, the back line stepped up aggressively, and the attack kept forcing decisions in the box. It wasn’t always pretty, but it was mature. That’s exactly what was needed against this Cremonese side, and it is what this team provided.

Roma 3 – 0 Cremonese: Niccolo Pisilli 86’

Then, the third goal truly sealed the deal. A scramble in the area, bodies converging on Malen, a ricochet that could’ve turned into one more missed chance, but instead it fell to Pisilli, who finished immediately, on the first touch and with no extra touch to invite doubt. It was clinical, it locked the clean sheet in, and the remaining minutes became a question of ensuring everyone survived without an injury before next week’s critical match against Juventus.

Final Thoughts

Roma avoided once again playing out the script that usually makes these fixtures against the minnows exhausting. Quite simply, the Giallorossi took the points, they controlled the game, did it while letting one of the club’s most criticized players somehow redeem himself (at least for this week). This match doesn’t guarantee Roma Champions League qualification for next season, but it does show that this side truly wants to return to Europe’s most serious competition. Next week’s match will show us if they can put their money where their mouth is against their traditional sparring partner Juve, who are now looking for answers with Luciano Spalletti’s new manager bounce fading away.

22 Feb 15:14

Five takeaways from Michigan’s 68-63 loss to Duke

by Jonathan Wuchter

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The post Five takeaways from Michigan’s 68-63 loss to Duke appeared first on UM Hoops.com.

26 Dec 04:20

Big Ten Presents

by Joe Jackson

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. Welcome to the 2nd annual Big Ten Basketball Christmas Gift Exchange, where I give all 18 Big Ten teams or their fans something (maybe useful) for the holidays.

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Illinois - 2 Year NBA Draft Rule

Last year, Kasparas Jakucionis was expected to be a one and done, and it was known there was at least a possibility Will Riley would also be one. However, if the NBA made it so there had to be two years of college basketball, that’d help out the Illini a lot. Keaton Wagler is the name this season, who like Will Riley, seems headed towards being a potential one and done player before entering the NBA draft. Ranked #211 in his class, Illinois hit big on Wagler so far, and their reward may be that Wagler ends up playing less than 40 collegiate games.

Indiana - Consistency

Indiana fans are a bit distracted with football right now, but the basketball team has had its flashes. However, they’ve also had spurts where it looks like they don’t click at all. On the season, Indiana has had a game where they shot 54% from three, one where they shot 16%, and a lot spread out in between. This is a team built on three point shooting, and naturally the variance is going to happen, but it feels like this Hoosiers team is really built on being able to knockdown threes.

Iowa - Big Ten size

I do think Iowa can figure it out without having the traditional Big Ten size, but it’ll be the biggest thing going into conference play. They got pounced on by Michigan State, a very quick wake up call for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has talent, but they don’t really have the prototypical Big Ten size down low. Rebounding hasn’t necessarily been a strength for this team, and they have been just fine protecting the rim. Having someone they could throw in down low would at least alleviate some of the pressure.

Maryland - Year 3 Buzz Williams

If you look at what Buzz Williams did at his last two coaching stops, he had a bit of a rebuild for a year or two before reaching the tournament with Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. This seems like it may be on the same trajectory at Maryland, as they have a long way to go to try and make a tournament this season. However, Buzz has showed he can get programs there, but it just doesn’t happen early on.

Michigan - Blinders

What are you supposed to get the best team in the country? They got Yaxel to return from the NBA draft, have answered every question people have had about them in the preseason, and they have one of the best coaches in the country. I chose to give them blinders to just keep being focused on what they’re doing, because it has very clearly been working.

Michigan State - Jase Richardson

Let’s imagine a world for just a second where Jase Richardson doesn’t develop into a one and done player, but decides to return to East Lansing for one more season before going to the NBA.

If we think about what Michigan State needs on this year’s roster, Jase Richardson checks off all the boxes. He can be the shooter and perimeter scorer for this team, help with some point guard responsibilities, and make the perimeter defense of this team even better. Richardson wasn’t projected to be a one and done guy, but he quickly developed into one. Credit to him for being able to do so, but also he would’ve been exactly what this Spartans team needed.

Minnesota - Jump shot making

Minnesota is generating more open catch and shoot threes than almost anybody in the country. Unfortunately for them, they’re in the bottom 20% in the country in actually making those shots. The process has been there for the Gophers, and that isn’t something to completely ignore, but also at some point the results have to match up.

Nebraska - Rabbit foot

Nebraska has had one of the best starts of the season for any team in the country, and this has been one of the best starts in Nebrasketball history. This gift isn’t to say at all that they’re just a “lucky” team, and if you read any of my preseason content you’d know I thought this was a tournament caliber team. However, they play a very high variance style with taking a lot of threes and forcing other teams to take a lot of threes. It’s all gone their way right now (because they’re a good team), but I’m sure they wouldn’t mind getting a few more shooting bounces going their way.

Northwestern - More game reps

This Northwestern team has a solid top three in Nick Martinelli, Arrinten Page, and Jayden Reid, although Page and Reid haven’t been quite as consistent as of late. Still, there’s real talent there. The issue is that the rest of their roster really just doesn’t have a lot of games under their belt, and the guard/wing room has a lot of figuring out to do.

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Ohio State - Heart monitors

Ohio State fans have had maybe the most stressful non conference of any team in the country, having had 4 games decided by a single point, and two other games decided by only a couple of possessions. When facing a power conference opponent, there has been no such thing as a stress free night for the Buckeyes, and I’m sure the fans have had their heart rate increase a lot by watching these early games.

Oregon - Wing development

This Oregon season hasn’t gone how anyone has wanted early on, but when you look at their roster, they have a good top 3 of Nate Bittle, Jackson Shelstad, and KJ Evans. However, they don’t have a true standout wing, and T.K. Simpkins has been the one to somewhat consistently step up. This team has the talent to turn it around, but they feel a wing or two away, even though they have multiple options on the team.

Penn State - A time machine

Penn State has one of the youngest teams in all of D1 basketball. They have some talent there between guys like Freddie Dilione, Kayden Mingo, and Melih Tunca, but there’s also a ton of inexperience. This year Penn State may get an upset win or two, but this roster largely feels built to try and win next year, especially if Kayden Mingo’s brother commits to Penn State. Take the time machine and jump one year into the future to see where this Nittany Lions team really is at.

Purdue - A Neuralyzer from Men In Black

In the Men in Black movies, the agents are able to use a device called a neuralyzer to wipe memories from people that see the flash. Purdue gets this to be able to use it on college basketball fans and make them forget about the Iowa State game. It’s a bit of a dark cloud hanging over the heads of what has otherwise been a tremendous non conference schedule.

Rutgers - Hibernation

I don’t want to fully call this season over for Rutgers, but it feels very much like it’s already there. Rutgers fans should have the ability to simply just hibernate this winter and not have to endure the Scarlet Knights struggles. Wake up refreshed in the spring, looking to see what transfers and freshmen Rutgers has added for next season.

UCLA - Healthy Donovan Dent

Donovan Dent has dealt with some injuries this season, although he’s only missed one game. The injury and recovery doesn’t explain away all the faults for him and UCLA this season, but it’s been noticeable that he seems a bit hindered at times. I’m hoping that some rest around the holidays can help Dent get to the 100% player that UCLA needs.

USC - Pokemon Center

In the Pokemon video games, there are these things called Pokemon Centers. There’s one in every town, and what they do is allow you to bring any injured Pokemon in to be able to revive them and heal them up to 100% health. USC would look a lot different right now if those existed as their two starting guards in Alijah Arenas and Rodney Rice have been hurt. Rice is done for the season, and Arenas is most likely done for the year, although there is a chance he could return late in the year. Amarion Dickerson is also presumably out for the rest of the season.

Washington - Modern offense

Washington has sort of fallen into the model that Mike Woodson ran at Indiana which included taking a lot of pull up 2s, isolations, and post ups. Things that aren’t necessarily included are three point shooting, spacing, and ball movement. Washington has the skill to win the way they play, but they could benefit a lot from having more floor spacing and shooting on the floor.

Wisconsin - Bench mob depth

Wisconsin last season obviously benefitted a lot from John Tonje dominating, but Wisconsin was sneaky deep with their roster, and Greg Gard was very comfortable utilizing his bench. There simply isn’t a Carter Gilmore or Kamari McGee on the roster right now, and it makes it difficult for Wisconsin to be able to trust their starting five, a bunch that all have had individual good games, but there hasn’t been the consistency needed.

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10 Dec 16:53

Spin the Wheel: Roma’s Rumor Machine Swaps Zirkzee for Raspadori

by bren

The International Law of Transfer Rumors states that when Player X is linked to Club Y, all media outlets have at least 10 days to publish a story suggesting that A) Player X no longer wants or desires to leave his club or B) Club Y is now interested in Player Z. 

We’ve seen this cycle play out many times over the years, with everyone from Edin Dzeko to Malcom to Granit Xhaka taking center stage. This phenomenon reached its Romaverse peak last summer with Jadon Sancho, as transfer winds changed seemingly every day. 

And as we approach the January transfer window, it seems like we’re being suckered into this same loop with Manchester United’s Joshua Zirkzee. One minute, he’s linked with Gasperini and the Giallorossi, with every outlet under the sun praising this ideal pairing of manager and player. Then, at the dawn of a new day, the player supposedly begins to waffle, viewing his current club through rose-tinted lenses.

When this cycle inevitably loses its novelty, we simply substitute a new name into the mix. In this case, the Italian press is linking Giacomo Raspadori to a return to Serie A. Raspadori, 25, left Napoli last summer for a €22 million transfer to Atletico Madrid and has struggled to settle in Spain. According to the latest whispers, Roma and Lazio are ready to compete for Raspadori’s signature this winter. 

Raspadori could certainly thrive under Gasperini, who tried to lure him to Atalanta in 2024, so please don’t mistake my skepticism about transfer rumors for disapproval. After reporting on transfer rumors for nearly 15 years, you begin to see them for what they truly are: pure, unsubstantiated speculation. 

Still, Raspadori or Zirkzee would be ideal additions for Roma this winter.

17 Nov 16:40

MGoPodcast 17.12: Eamus Toddleri!

by BlueBarron
Michigan 86, Middle Tennessee 61
Alex.Drain
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan Men's Basketball overcame a sluggish first half to dominate a team they were widely expected to crunch in the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. They did it by dominating the paint at both ends, silencing MTSU's offense at the rim and once the threes stopped falling after halftime, Michigan was able to clobber the opposition by the gaudy margin that prognosticators had foreseen. Yaxel Lendeborg had his first dominant game as a Wolverine with 25 points and Michigan was able to hold the Blue Raiders to just 30% from the floor. After a couple of grit-your-teeth, nail-biting wins, the Wolverines were able to emerge with a relatively stress free victory against a mid-major. 

Dusty May made an alteration to his starting lineup, taking out Aday Mara and replacing him with Will Tschetter, perhaps in pursuit of improved shooting and spacing. The move appeared to pay immediate dividends when Tschetter knocked down a three on Michigan's first possession of the ballgame, but the first half was not to be about Michigan's three pointers but MTSU's. That was especially the case in the first few minutes of the game, when the Blue Raiders hit three triples in quick succession, establishing a surprising 9-7 ede at the first media timeout. 

The three pointers reflected how Middle Tennessee would structure their offense for the game. Over half of the field goal attempts they would take tonight were three pointers and that pattern was established right from the hop. The paint was shut off and MTSU didn't much try to threaten it. In the first half, they hit enough threes to hang around as Michigan's offense couldn't rip apart the opposing defense. They failed to do so in part because of their own three point situation, as cold three point shooting limited the offensive output.  Middle Tennessee played a zone defense for stretches of the game and ceded open triples, but Michigan couldn't punish them. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

That's not to say it was a bad first half offensively for Michigan. They put up 36 points and shot 9/17 from two, leading through most of the half. They took control after that early 9-7 deficit, stretching it up to 16-9 after a Trey McKenney corner three, one of only threes Michigan made in the first half. LJ Cason stripped Jahvin Carter and dunked off the fast-break forcing a timeout by the visitors. The lead stretched to 12 after an acrobatic and-one from Roddy Gayle Jr., who finished the layup while falling down, but MTSU didn't give up. 

The Blue Raiders shot their way back into it, going on a 13-2 run that included two threes by Alec Oglesby and one from Jarred Hall. Kamari Lands' layup trimmed the lead to one, 25-24 for the Wolverines before they took control back to end the first half. Cason made an end-to-end layup and Yaxel Lendeborg finished a tough bucket through contact before Morez Johnson added two free throws while Michigan was in the bonus, putting Michigan back up 31-24. They led by nine after a Nimari Burnett free throw but allowed a transition and-one by Torey Alston right at the buzzer, Lendeborg's foul coming with under a second to go. Alston completed the three point play and Michigan's lead was six at halftime, 36-30. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the second half]

Middle Tennessee hadn't been efficient from three in the first half, shooting only 33% from deep, but taking 21 of 34 FGAs from deep allowed them to hang around when Michigan was ice cold from three in the first half (3/14). What changed in the second half was Middle Tennessee's threes dried up and Michigan found away to dominate from two even more than they had in the first half. Threes for Michigan weren't a large part of the second half formula, though Elliot Cadeau's three point jumper was their first score of the second half. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

That gave Michigan a nine point lead, kicking off the section of the game where Michigan buried MTSU. They began the half an 11-2 run to go up by 15, Lendeborg starting to take control and Cadeau setting up Morez Johnson for a sweet make to cement the run. Middle Tennessee briefly stopped the bleeding with a Tre Green following an offensive rebound, but Michigan went right back to widening the lead. After MTSU made it 47-35, Michigan answered with another 10-3 run that built the lead up near 20, a blowout margin they ultimately never relinquished. 

The highlights of that run included a sweet Aday Mara behind the back pass for Cadeau and a strange broken play beginning with a Roddy Gayle steal that ended with a Yaxel Lendeborg and-one. Once the lead got up near 20, it only kept growing to eventually read 27 points at the largest point, 69-42 around the midpoint of the half. One of the stories of the second half was Mara, who was very quiet in the first half (0 points) but made his presence known in the second half, adding ten points and seven rebounds not to mention his usually punishing paint defense. MTSU continued to be relegated to perimeter offense and shot rather abysmally. 

Michigan didn't push to exacerbate the blowout, the final margin eventually settling at 25 points, just between the KenPom line and the Vegas line. The final few minutes were only notable for the personnel, as Michigan reached into their deep bench to get some players experience. Winters Grady was the first to check in, playing the final seven minutes without doing much of note. The only shot attempt from Grady was an an easy putback attempt that he missed off an offensive rebound. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Oscar Goodman checked in alongside Malick Kordel, the latter being the most eventful of the group. Kordel got to the free throw line and took three attempts, only two of which counted (one was ruled moot on a lane violation). The first two attempts were bricks off the back iron but the third rattled down. He capped off the day with a dunk in the final seconds, set up on a full court pass by Grady. Charlie May also entered the game in the concluding minutes, much to the delight of the Crisler Center crowd. 

The final score was 86-61 Michigan and the statistics reflect such a blowout. MTSU shot only 30% from the floor, 21/69 overall and a grisly 11/32 (34%) from two. The second half slump dragged down their three point clip to a poor margin as well, 10/37 (27%). The Blue Raiders also turned it over 15 times, to the tune of nine Michigan points, and had only eight assists on their 21 made baskets. Despite the 61 points, this was not a good offensive performance. 

On Michigan's side, this was another game where Michigan's three point shooting was dismal. They finished 5/25 (20%) from deep tonight, many of them excellent looks. After shooting the lights out in the opener against Oakland, Michigan has rattled off three straight poor 3 point shooting games, ugly ones in the case of tonight and last week vs. Wake Forest. It's something to keep an eye on moving forward. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

However, the two point shooting was terrific tonight. Michigan owned the paint and were 26/42 (61.9%) from two, providing the rocket fuel needed to emerge with a win. Lendeborg played his first elite game as a Wolverine, putting up 25 and 12 on 9/12 shooting (2/5 from three), three assists and zero turnovers in only 28 minutes. That'll do. No one else scored more than 10 points but five players (Cadeau, Johnson, Cason, Gayle, Mara) scored between 8 and 10 points. Mara accrued a double double in only 21 minutes with an even 10 points and 10 boards, though four turnovers on zero assists is a concern. 

Tonight was what a game against an overmatched mid-major is supposed to look like. Michigan has looked the part in both such games on their schedule but have looked less than convincing in the games against power conference teams, neither of whom profile as world-beaters. It will probably take a better performance to have a strong week next time out and hopefully the team can build on tonight's paint dominance and add improved three point shooting to it. That game will be against San Diego State in Las Vegas on Monday, followed by Auburn on Tuesday, and then a third game against opponent TBD on either Wednesday or Thursday as part of the Players Era Festival. That first game against SDSU is slated to tip at 10:30 pm EST(!) and will be broadcast on TruTV(!!!).  

Davy Found

November 19th, 2025 at 10:54 PM ^

Diminutive #30 lit it up during the halftime scrimmage. Dusty needs to sign that pipsqueak.

Joined: 12/07/2017

MGoPoints: 5208

Johnny Blood

November 19th, 2025 at 10:55 PM ^

Good game after two tough ones. 

And don’t let the score fool you, Middle Tennessee is a true powerhouse… just ask Michigan State. 

Joined: 12/22/2010

MGoPoints: 5931

In reply to Good game after two tough… by Johnny Blood

BursleyHall82

November 19th, 2025 at 11:22 PM ^

Yeah, I hope all our guys said “thanks” in the handshake line.

Middle Tennessee State will always hold a special place in our hearts for that. They should become the basketball version of Slippery Rock, where we announce their scores in the middle of our games. 

Joined: 07/14/2013

MGoPoints: 39009

In reply to Good game after two tough… by Johnny Blood

BursleyHall82

November 19th, 2025 at 11:24 PM ^

Best joke that came out of that: “Tom Izzo tried driving his team down to Florida, but he couldn’t get past middle Tennessee.”

Joined: 07/14/2013

MGoPoints: 39009

CaliforniaNobody

November 19th, 2025 at 11:32 PM ^

That's how you beat MTSU, staee

 

Joined: 12/18/2014

MGoPoints: 17385

1of12MattDamons

November 20th, 2025 at 12:07 AM ^

Yax looked great. Cason looks like he's definitely improved since last season. Cheddar has looked worse so far this year. Cadeau seemed just okay. Defense remains excellent. If this team starts knocking down open threes they will be scary good. 

Joined: 12/16/2013

MGoPoints: 33422

In reply to Yax looked great. Cason… by 1of12MattDamons

San Diego Mick

November 20th, 2025 at 3:26 AM ^

Yax is so athletic, definitely the best all around player on the team. 

He looks like he would be a helluva tight end in football. 

Let's hope the 2nd half is more indicative of what this team will be going forward. 

Hopefully the 3's will start falling, Nimari needs to shoot way better than he has so far and maybe Winters can provide a spark in that regard. I do believe we have some potentiall good outside shooters on this team.

Gayle has been pretty solid  so far.  Cheddar needs less minutes.

 

Joined: 05/11/2011

MGoPoints: 68612

EikMelynai

November 20th, 2025 at 12:18 AM ^

Took care of the ball better and had fewer turnovers. Love Mara, but his turnovers have been a problem - 4 in this game, to lead the team. If this team can start hitting 3s,  and limit the turnovers, this can be a Final 4 team or better. 

Joined: 10/25/2023

MGoPoints: 24237

waittilnextyear

November 20th, 2025 at 12:33 AM ^

This was the first game where I thought oh that's what the fuss is about with Yaxel. Great game for the touted transfer from UAB.

Joined: 09/11/2021

MGoPoints: 18072

In reply to This was the first game… by waittilnextyear

rice4114

November 20th, 2025 at 4:19 AM ^

He plays so effortlessly. When it comes to handling the ball if its not going to be our point guard i wouldnt mind another version of Wolf with Yaxel. Trey looks like a good ball handler as well. Cason just seems to be looking to score if he dribbles inside the 3pt line. Doesnt keep his head up much but he is still learning. 

Joined: 08/26/2010

MGoPoints: 66594

True Blue Grit

November 20th, 2025 at 7:19 AM ^

Good win.  Until Michigan starts hitting threes reliably, the "book" on defending Michigan will be lots of zones.  We can overcome that against a lot of teams.  But against better competition it's going to be a challenge.  

Joined: 01/21/2011

MGoPoints: 40111

12 Jan 19:42

Photo

by joberholtzer


16 Dec 18:07

This cartoon about racism was published in 1876

by Matt Bors

“In Self-Defense”

Continue reading on Medium »

06 Dec 21:27

The Future's so Bright ...

by Bill McBride
Almost two years ago I wrote The Future's so Bright .... In that post I outlined why I was becoming more optimistic.  Now that 2014 is the best year for employment since the '90s, it is time for an update!

For new readers: I was very bearish on the economy when I started this blog in 2005 - back then I wrote mostly about housing (see: LA Times article and more here for comments about the blog). I started looking for the sun in early 2009, and now I'm more optimistic.

Here are some updates to the graphs I posted two years ago.  Several of these graphs have changed direction since I wrote that post.  As example, state and local government employment is now increasing, and household deleveraging is over (as predicted).

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows total and single family housing starts. Even though starts have almost doubled from the bottom, starts are still way below the average level of 1.5 million per year from 1959 through 2000.  As of October, starts are still close to the bottom for previous recessions.

Growth for starts in 2014 was slow, but that just means there is more growth ahead.  Demographics and household formation suggests starts will increase to around 1.5 million over the next few years. That means starts will probably increase another 50% or so from the October 2014 level of 1 million starts (SAAR).

Residential investment and housing starts are usually the best leading indicator for the economy, so this suggests the economy will continue to grow over the next couple of years.

State and Local GovernmentThis graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost 129,000 jobs in 2009, 262,000 in 2010, 249,000 in 2011, and 33,000 in 2012.

 In 2013, state and local government employment increased by 44,000 jobs.

This year, through November 2014, state and local employment is up 96,000.   So, in the aggregate, state and local government layoffs are over - and the economic drag on the economy is over.

US Federal Government Budget Surplus DeficitAnd here is a graph on the US deficit. This graph, based on the CBO's recent projections, shows the actual (purple) budget deficit each year as a percent of GDP, and an estimate for the next ten years based on estimates from the CBO.

As we've been discussing, the US deficit as a percent of GDP has been declining, and will probably remain under 3% for several years.  

Here are a couple of graph on household debt (and debt service):

Total Household DebtThis graph from the the NY Fed shows aggregate household debt has increased for the last 5 quarters.

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Increase as Deleveraging Period Concludes
Total cash flow from mortgage debt and nonmortgage debt combined (black dotted line) has turned slightly positive during the past four quarters, ending a five-year period of negative values, suggesting that, by this measure, the deleveraging process has ended; households have begun to use credit to supplement their cash flow again.
emphasis added
There will be some more deleveraging ahead for certain households (mostly from foreclosures and distressed sales), but in the aggregate, household deleveraging is over.

Financial ObligationsThis graph is from the Fed's Q2 Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. These ratios show the percent of disposable personal income (DPI) dedicated to debt service (DSR) and financial obligations (FOR) for households.

The overall Debt Service Ratio decreased in Q2, and is near the record low set in Q4 2012.  Note: The financial obligation ratio (FOR) is also near a record low  (not shown)

Also the DSR for mortgages (blue) are near the low for the last 30 years.  This ratio increased rapidly during the housing bubble, and continued to increase until 2007. With falling interest rates, and less mortgage debt (mostly due to foreclosures), the mortgage ratio has declined significantly.

This data suggests household cash flow is in much better shape than several years ago.

AIA Architecture Billing IndexAnd for commercial real estate, here is the AIA Architecture Billings Index. This is usually a leading indicator for commercial real estate, and the readings over the last year suggest more increases in CRE investment in 2014 (except oil and power with the recent decline in oil prices).

Overall it appears the economy is poised for more growth.

And in the longer term I remain very optimistic.

Earlier this year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group and The Future is still Bright!

I pointed out that "even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics). The good news is that will change soon."

Changes in demographics are an important determinant of economic growth, and although most people focus on the aging of the "baby boomer" generation, the movement of younger cohorts into the prime working age is another key story in coming years. Here is a graph of the prime working age population (this is population, not the labor force) from 1948 through October 2014.

Prime Working Age PopulatonThere was a huge surge in the prime working age population in the '70s, '80s and '90s - and the prime age population has been mostly flat recently (even declined a little).

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and appears to have bottomed at the end of 2012.  The good news is the prime working age group has started to grow again, and should be growing solidly by 2020 - and this should boost economic activity in the years ahead.

These young workers are well educated and tech savvy.  And they will have babies and buy homes soon.  For more, see from Joe Weisenthal: The Analyst Who Nailed The Housing Crash Is Quietly Revealing The Next Big Thing

Over two years ago I said that looking forward I was the most optimistic since the '90s. And things are only getting better. The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Yes, the song was about nuclear holocaust ... but it was originally intended the way I'm using it.
05 Dec 00:14

fishingboatproceeds: Eric Garner’s last words.



fishingboatproceeds:

Eric Garner’s last words.

15 Aug 22:57

Photo

by joberholtzer


13 Aug 08:21

Sunday Night Movie: Sundew School Is Now Enrolling

by alexwild

A time-lapse treasure from the BBC’s Tim Shepherd:

25 Jun 17:46

toadelevatingmoment: But Confucius has answered them with the...









toadelevatingmoment:

But Confucius has answered them with the final whistle, it’s all over. Germany, having trounced England’s famous midfield trio of Bentham, Locke and Hobbes in the semi-final, have been beaten by the odd goal.

13 Jun 00:35

hideback: L’enfer Cabaret, Boulevard de Clichy, Montmartre,...











hideback:

L’enfer Cabaret, Boulevard de Clichy, Montmartre, Paris

Built circa 1890; demolished circa 1952.

Entertainment inside the “inferno of hell” included musicians dressed as devils and interior volcanos that spewed scented lava of molten gold. 

After the “cabaret artistique” was demolished, the site became a Monoprix retail store.

04 Jun 23:27

The global movements of money due to remittances via Steve Wiley

by joberholtzer
29 May 16:42

The Wu Tang Clan’s historic album “36 Chambers” broken down by...

by psychicoctobers


The Wu Tang Clan’s historic album “36 Chambers” broken down by each member’s appearance on each track.

27 May 06:56

Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District: “What 60 years of...



Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District: “What 60 years of political gerrymandering looks like”

25 Mar 18:52

Photo



20 Feb 22:17

The Biggest Loser

Kjcblack

Kangaroos do box

Man, these new trainers on The Biggest Loser are aggressive. 

14 Feb 22:30

The Valentine’s Day Treaty

by By BOYD COTHRAN
Could Elijah Steele's 1864 vision for settler-Indian compromise in the Pacific Northwest have averted the Indian Wars?
11 Feb 18:34

Government Bravely Prosecutes Nun for Embarrassing It

by Kevin

On January 28, unexpected snow postponed the sentencing of 83-year-old Sister Megan Rice and two fellow activists in Knoxville, Tennessee. They face up to 30 years in prison for "willfully damaging federal property" (which they did) and "sabotaging national defense material" (which they didn't) by breaking into the Y-12 complex at Oak Ridge and brutally spray-painting peace slogans all over it.

They didn't damage anything except for the fences they cut through to get inside. So why were they charged as saboteurs? Here's why: the Y-12 complex is where the U.S. stores its weapons-grade uranium—over 100 tons of it—but three unarmed and untrained civilians with a combined age of 202 were able to get in and roam around for hours before even one guard appeared.

And that's embarrassing.

So, 9/11 happened, and over a decade and $1 trillion later, the government's got the TSA checking your waistbands but it can't keep a nun out of a nuclear-bomb plant. And she's the one being prosecuted?

Megan Rice
Alleged National Security Threat

The activists weren't even trying to show that security at Y-12 was bad, although they definitely did that. They cut through at least three fences during their two-hour "infiltration," and then had plenty of time to paint slogans, hang banners and do some serious praying before Barney Fife showed up. It's a good thing they did break into this place before any bad guys got the idea, because even that moron who put a bomb in his underpants could probably have done some damage the way things were. (It's better now, at least according to the Department of Energy, so sleep well.)

I don't expect the government to be grateful about the vandalism, and I am fine with ordering the activists to pay restitution for that (as the judge has done). But beyond that, does anything more than token jail time make any sense?

The government is pretending to think so, although I should note that prosecutors are "only" asking for six to nine years, not the possible 30. And in an effort to justify even that request, they apparently cracked open the National Strategic Bullshit Reserve for the sentencing brief, which is full of stuff like this:

The defendants have been convicted of serious offenses that have caused real harm to the Y-12 National Security Complex.

Tip: If there had been any real harm they wouldn't say "real harm." They'd just say what it was.

They have shown no remorse for their criminal conduct. To the contrary, they have reveled in their violations and used it to gain publicity for their cause.

It's called a "protest," jackass. That's how they work.

By penetrating the secure and sensitive premises of Y-12 and having a highly-publicized trial, the defendants accomplished their mission.

Ooh, how evocative. They were on a "mission" when they "penetrated" your "sensitive premises," were they? Nice effort to make a nun sound slightly nasty.

Now that it is time for them to pay the price for their decision, the defendants ask for an incredible discount. The United States believes that the defendants should be held accountable for their deliberate choices and accept the appropriate consequences for their actions.

Oh, give it a rest, Nancy Grace. They did you a favor. Have them pay for your fences and then let them go home. And put the money towards some better fences before somebody armed with more than a Bible tries to get in.

24 Oct 21:50

Officer Who Pepper-Sprayed UC Davis Students Is Awarded $38,000

by Kevin

Here's a question for you: Of those involved in the incident below— 

Pepper Spray
(Photo: Wayne Tilcock/Davis Enterprise)

 —who would you say should receive more money as a result?

  1. the student being sprayed in the face
  2. the police officer spraying her
  3. all the students should get equal amounts
  4. no one should be paid anything
  5. I am not going to think about this because I think I know the answer and it would confirm that the universe makes no sense so la la la la la I'm not listening.

The answer is, of course, number 5, because the correct answer is actually number 2.

The Atlantic (among others) reports that John Pike, the casual chemical warrior shown above, will be getting $38,000 in workers' compensation payments based on his claim that he was injured on the job. The task that caused his injury was spraying harmless students in the face, and the injury he claims to have suffered is (no, not a sprained finger) depression and anxiety resulting from the public outrage directed at him because he did that.

La la la la la.

There is no question that depression, anxiety, and other mental conditions can be legitimate disabilities. One issue with this kind of claim in general, though, is that it can be harder to detect fraudulent claims because the injuries are not obvious (by contrast, you might be able to, for example, get a guy on film running a race in high heels at the same time he's claiming disability).

Here, according to the Davis Enterprise, an agreed-upon expert testified that Pike is "moderately" disabled due to "continuing and significant internal and external stress with respect to ... the significant emotional upheavals that have occurred" in his life since the incident. Again, though, the "incident" was that one time where he sprayed seated protesters in the face with pepper spray, which other humans then saw as a reason to hate him (he is said to have received almost 30,000 angry messages) and which also got him fired. Does his conduct not matter?

It may not.

I don't practice employment law, I'm just looking at a book by somebody who does. And workers' comp is its own specialized area, in which, again, I do not specialize. (If you do, let me know what you think.) Generally speaking, though: workers' comp is an insurance plan into which employers pay, with the tradeoff being that in most cases workers' comp is the exclusive remedy for an on-the-job injury. No lawsuits. Because workers don't have another remedy and the payouts are limited (and defined by law), the rules tend to be interpreted very much in their favor. And so you end up with cases where an employee gets paid despite some very odd facts.

For example, in one case a death benefit was paid despite an objection that the employee was traveling with "a woman, not his wife but registered as such," and one of them started a fire by careless smoking. The fact that the hotel room was being used "for an immoral and unlawful purpose" (the court also called it "combining his own business with that of his employer") did not change the fact that the trip itself was made in the course of employment, and so workers' comp applied.

Okay, that's immoral business-combining conduct, but what about criminal conduct? Surely a worker can't get paid if he was injured as a result of a crime he committed! Well, actually....

Employee misconduct, whether negligent, willful, or even criminal, does not necessarily preclude recovery under workers' compensation law. [Generally], such misconduct will bar recovery only when it constitutes a deviation from the scope of employment.... A distinction must be made between an unauthorized departure from the course of employment [no workers' comp] and the performance of [an authorized] duty in an unauthorized manner [yes worker's comp]. The latter conduct, while it may constitute serious and willful misconduct by the employee ... does not take the employee outside the course of his employment.

(Emphasis added, cites left out.) Otherwise, the California Supreme Court has said, "[a]ny employer could argue that reckless, intentional, or criminal conduct is not part of any job description and therefore not within the scope of employment. This argument, however, if permitted to succeed, would totally undermine the no-fault foundation of workers' compensation law." That is, he's getting paid because of the somewhat odd no-fault nature of the workers' comp scheme, not because he was somehow wronged.

The employee's conduct isn't irrelevant. Typically, we are probably talking about something like reckless driving, which—even if it results in manslaughter—would have no effect if the driving was in the course of employment. The law does say that if an employee commits "serious and willful misconduct," any compensation is cut in half (but they still get paid). Payment can be denied only if the employee was injured while committing a felony and has been convicted of that felony. Pike hasn't been charged with a crime, to my knowledge, although maybe he should have been; and it's possible that $38,000 is only half of what he would otherwise have gotten. In any event, the (mostly) no-fault workers' comp scheme is the reason he is getting money at all.

Here are some additional facts that are remarkable.

  • Pike was on paid leave during the university's investigation, which for some reason took eight months.
  • The investigation found not only that Pike didn't need to use the spray, but that he used a spray not sanctioned by the department and he used it from an unsafe distance. Seems serious and willful to me.
  • Pike was being paid—please be seated—at least $119,000 per year (another report says $121,680) plus benefits, to be a campus policeman in Davis, California.
  • Though Pike was fired, he will still get his pension.
  • The students he sprayed sued UC Davis for civil-rights violations. The university settled with them for $1 million (plus an apology). Under the settlement, the plaintiffs will each receive, at most, $30,000.

Yes, the man who assaulted the plaintiffs will be getting $8,000 more than any plaintiff will get, as a result of his claim that he was acting within the course of his employment by assaulting them and became emotionally disabled as a result of being accused of assaulting them; he is also allowed to keep a pension that is likely based to some degree on the $119,000 per year the state was paying him to be the kind of officer who pepper-sprays non-violent protesters in the face.

See answer number 5, supra.

20 Sep 00:41

Otter Expertly Juggles a Stone

by Daily Otter

Submitted by Tim! See another video of a juggling otter here (and here for a funny “translation”).

09 Jul 02:50

Caimans at Night, Brazil

This Month in Photo of the Day: Animal Pictures

After the caimans emerged at dusk, the photographer was reminded of an earlier encounter. At 15 he went with his dad to look for the crocs by flashlight: “The image of their eyes glowing like stars in a dark sky is something I will never forget.”

See more pictures from the July 2013 feature story "The Comeback Croc."


Watch a video of swimming with caimans »
See pictures of and learn more about freshwater environments »


24 Jun 22:36

Edward Snowden Took the Job at Booz Allen Just to Collect (and Then Release) US Government Secrets

by Orin Kerr
(Orin Kerr)

The South China Morning Post reports:

Edward Snowden secured a job with a US government contractor for one reason alone – to obtain evidence of Washington’s cyberspying networks, the South China Morning Post can reveal.

For the first time, Snowden has admitted he sought a position at Booz Allen Hamilton so he could collect proof about the US National Security Agency’s secret surveillance programmes ahead of planned leaks to the media.

“My position with Booz Allen Hamilton granted me access to lists of machines all over the world the NSA hacked,” he told the Post on June 12. “That is why I accepted that position about three months ago.”

. . .

Asked if he specifically went to Booz Allen Hamilton to gather evidence of surveillance, he replied: “Correct on Booz.”

The documents he divulged to the Post were obtained at Booz Allen Hamilton in April, he said. He intends to leak more of those documents later.

“If I have time to go through this information, I would like to make it available to journalists in each country to make their own assessment, independent of my bias, as to whether or not the knowledge of US network operations against their people should be published.”

There has been speculation on this motive before, but it seems noteworthy that Snowden himself concedes it.