In brief: Ironically, Thursday was “National Love a Tree Day.” Instead of loving trees, however, a line of storms ripped through the heart of Houston and tore many thousands of them down, killing a handful of people, damaging homes and vehicles, and bringing down power lines. In this post we’ll provide some meteorological data about what happened Thursday, and a forecast looking ahead to calmer weather.
Tornadoes
The National Weather Service has completed a survey of damage from two confirmed tornadoes that struck Houston on Thursday evening, one at 5:44 pm near Pine Island in Waller County, and the second at 6:08 pm near Jersey Village in Harris County. Here is the summary of those investigations:
Waller County tornado
Rated EF1
Peak winds: 100 mph
Path length: 0.71 miles
Path width: 100 yards
No fatalities or injuries
Duration: 5:44 to 5:45 pm CT
Significant tree damage, large metal barn destroyed, metal debris thrown up to 1,000 yards away.
Radar signature of the Cypress tornado. (National Weather Service)
Cypress tornado
Rated EF1
Peak winds: 110 mph
Path length: 0.77 miles
Path width: 100 yards
No fatalities or injuries
Duration: 6:08 to 6:09 pm CT
Numerous single family homes had roof damage and broken windows. Damage path well defined.
This is a preliminary report that may be adjusted in the future.
Straight-line wind damage
As Matt noted yesterday, most of the damage in the region was caused by straight-line winds, and what appeared to be something of a mini-derecho. The National Weather Service has also collected maximum wind reports from around the area on Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of the highest values were recorded at Texas A&M University, 71 mph, and the Houston Ship Channel, 74 mph.
Very strong winds just above the surface were able to break through, and get down to the ground. These winds a few hundred feet above the ground were even stronger than what was observed at ground level. This is likely the reason why some skyscrapers in downtown Houston observed significant damage at their upper levels.
Power outages
About one-quarter of customers in Harris County are still without electricity this morning. In an update to the media on Friday evening, CenterPoint Energy said restoration could take “several days or longer” for the hardest hit areas.
“As crews continue to uncover damage and encounter new challenges while making repairs, restoration may take more time than customers typically experience following a routine storm event,” the company said. “CenterPoint Energy appreciates customers’ patience, and the company will work around-the-clock until the last customer is restored.”
We genuinely appreciate the hard work by all of the lineman working to restore power. It is a hard and hot business to rapidly repair storm damage, I know first-hand how hard the men and women are working out there.
Flooding
The heaviest rainfall on Thursday occurred north of the area, in locations such as College Station and Livingston, which have already been inundated over the last 30 days. Significant river flooding is likely along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River later this weekend, whereas the Trinity River is already cresting today before a slow fall next week.
The East Fork of the San Jacinto River will make a steep rise on Saturday. (National Weather Service)
Fortunately the entire southeast Texas region will now get a chance to dry out. Our weather is about to get boring.
Forecast
After the fog lifts this morning we’ll see sunny and hot conditions today, with highs likely in the low 90s. And that’s pretty much your forecast for the next week, at least. The only change will be gradually warming nights. Lows this morning got to below 70 degrees for most locations. It was, almost, nice? Well, except for the mosquitoes. By Wednesday or Thursday morning, our lows are likely to only dip into the upper 70s. Rain chances are nil for the foreseeable future.
We wish everyone the best this weekend as you recover from Thursday’s storms, and thank everyone who is out there helping to pick up the pieces. This community is at its best in moments like these, when we’re all working together.
As the Houston area works to clean up and restore power to thousands after deadly storms, it will do so Saturday under a smog warning and as all of southern Texas starts to feel the heat.
BIBLIOGRAPHY: Sara Ahmed, The Cultural Politics of Emotion Lily Alexandre, Fear of Trans Bodies Lily Alexandre, The Feminist to Far-Right Pipeline Fran Amery, “Protecting Children in ‘Gender Critical’ Rhetoric and Strategy: Regulating Childhood for Cisgender Outcomes,” in Journal of Diversity and Gender Studies Mira Bellwether, F*****g Trans Women Talia Mae Bettcher, “Evil Deceivers and Make-Believers,” in Hypatia Haley Marie Brown, “The Forgotten Murders: Gendercide in the Twenty-First Century and the Destruction of the Transgender Body,” in Denial: The Final Stage of Genocide? Shelley Budgeon, “Identity as an Embodied Event,” in Body & Society Judith Butler, Excitable Speech Judith Butler, Gender Trouble Judith Butler, “Imitation and Gender Subordination” Judith Butler, Precarious Life Judith Butler, Who’s Afraid of Gender? Judith Butler, “Performative Acts and Gender Constitution: An Essay in Phenomenology and Feminist Theory,” in Theatre Journal Andrea Long Chu, “Freedom of Sex: The Moral Case for Letting trans Kids Change Their Bodies,” in The New Yorker Caelen Conrad, “Gender Critical: Conversion Therapy” Simone de Beauvoir, The Second Sex Julia Dauksza et al., “Salve Maria, Or Millions Made in Poland,” in VSquare Julia Dauksza et al., “The Golden Boys of Fatima,” in VSquare Julia Dauksza et al., “The Golden Lion Roars from Cracow,” in VSquare Petula Dvorak, “LGBTQ+ Teens Won A Grant for Their School. Adults Sent the Money Back.,” in The Washington Post Michel Foucault, The History of Sexuality Agnieszka Graff and Elzbieta Korolczuk, Anti-Gender Politics in the Populist Moment Mauro Cabal Grinspan et al., “Exploring TERFnesses,” in Journal of Diversity and Gender Studies Virginia Guitzel, “Notes from Brazil,” in Transgender Marxism Sally Haslanger, “Feminism in Metaphysics,” in Resisting Reality Claire C.A. House, “‘I’m Real, Not You’: Roles and Discourse of Trans Exclusionary Women’s and Feminist Movements in Anti-Gender and Right-Wing Populist Politics,” in Journal of Diversity and Gender Studies Innuendo Studios, “Endnote 5: A Case Study in Digital Radicalisation” Eleanor Janega, The Once and Future Sex Julia Kristeva, "Woman Can Never Be Defined," trans. Marilyn A. August, in New French Feminism Harry Lambert, “Rosie Duffield: “You Never Change Sex”,” in The New Statesman Stephanie Mayer and Birgit Sauer, “‘Gender Ideology’ in Austria: Coalitions Around an Empty Signifier,” in Anti-Gender Campaigns in Europe Michael Naas, “Comme si, comme ca,” in Derrida From Now On Leah Owen, “Parasitically occupying bodies: Exploring toxifying securitization in antitrans and genocidal ideologies,” in Peace Review Alison Rumfitt, Brainwyrms Julia Serano, Sexed Up Julia Serano, Whipping Girl Shaun, J.K. Rowling’s New Friends Shaun, Kelly Jay Keen and the Neo-Nazis Shaun, Palestine Laura J. Shepherd and Laura Sjoberg, “Trans-Bodies in/of War(s): Cisprivilege and Contemporary Security Strategy,” in Feminist Review C. Riley Snorton, Black on Both Sides Darin Tenev, “La Déconstruction en enfant: the Concept of Phantasm in the Work of Derrida” Monique Wittig, “One is Not Born A Woman”
00:00 - 02:31 Introduction 02:31 - 04:10 "I'm You From the Future" 04:10 - 10:15 Judith Butler and Performativity 10:15 - 10:42 "Just listen to me!" 10:42 - 20:33 Biology & Social Constructs 20:33 - 36:52 "Politics in the future gets weird!" 36:52 - 55:29 the Anti-Gender Movement 55:29 - 57:08 "The personal is political" 57:08 - 1:04:37 What can we do? 1:04:37 - 1:15:08 This is what we can do.
In brief: A line of severe storms moved through Houston on Thursday evening bringing heavy rainfall, and instances of damaging winds and tornadoes. We’ll have a full rundown tomorrow, but it has been a wild few hours. The point of this post is to let you know that that’s it for the night. And after some residual showers tomorrow, that’s it for spring storm season in Houston.
Wow, that was strong
Yes it was. We expected some severe weather this afternoon and evening, and forecasted as much this morning. But it’s fair to see we did not quite anticipate the severity of what developed. There are widespread reports of trees downed, damaged fences, and other significant problems associated with straight-line winds and a couple of tornadoes that developed this evening. On the excitable dogs scale from 1 to 10, this was an 11.5.
Damage near Cypress this evening. (Harris County Fire Marshal’s Office)
Electricity remains a significant casualty. In Harris County, as of 7:30 pm CT, 40 percent of customers are without power. These storms actually weakened as they tracked across the region, so the outages are even worse just to the west of Houston, where power is out to 75 percent of customers in Waller County. It is beyond the scope of what we can forecast to predict when the power will come back on, but the storms are clearing the area relatively quickly. Crews should be able to respond to outages beginning this evening, and work overnight.
So what happened? Some of the parameters we look at to gauge severe weather, including instability, convective available potential energy, shear, and helicity all came in at or above expected levels as the storms approached the Houston metro area late this afternoon. This allowed them to bloom and produce destructive storms.
What comes next
The major line of storms has already moved through central Houston, and it is steadily weakening as it as moves toward the coast. If it has stopped raining at your location, that is basically it. We may see a few trailing showers in the next couple of hours, but nothing serious. Tonight looks quiet.
Tomorrow a final low pressure system will pass Houston, and may bring some additional showers to locations along and south of Interstate 10. I don’t expect these to be particularly severe, and they should develop mostly south of where the strong storms were today.
And then? That’s it. Spring is over. High pressure begins building over the area this weekend and we’re unlikely to see significant rain for days, if not weeks. Spring storm season ended with a fiery finale today.
In brief: There will be some showers this morning south and east of US-59 to the coast. Some thunder is possible. No severe weather is expected. The rest of the forecast through Monday and Tuesday is quiet and turning hotter.
We have a few showers southwest of Houston that will push in this morning. The steadiest rain will be south and southeast of the city, areas that saw a bit less action yesterday. We then clear out and dry out for later and tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday. Highs will nudge into the 90s with lows slowly increasing through the 70s into next week.
Trying to make sense of Thursday
This will be a different post than typical. I want to walk through what happened yesterday from a forecaster’s perspective. About 750,000 customers remain without power this morning, and because of the extensive, widespread damage, this number will very slowly decrease today and tomorrow. Some may be without power until next week.
So how did we get here? As a refresh, here is Eric’s post from yesterday morning. We were all really focused on the threat for heavy rain, and with the high risk in place yesterday to our north, that shouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, 4 to 5 inches of rain did fall as expected, basically north of highway 105 through Conroe.
Rain totals on Thursday lined up really well with the high risk bullseye that was in place to our north. Flash flooding was a common problem in many places yesterday. (NSSL MRMS)
Eric did note the severe weather and correctly underscored the chances of wind and an isolated tornado. The Storm Prediction Center had the right idea on severe weather yesterday too. But again, I think most of us the significant messaging was heavily focused on the rain.
Through most of yesterday morning, not a whole lot seemed to change. Eric, Dwight, and I met up for lunch at a Pappas BBQ but not the one we originally planned on, which, thanks Apple Maps. Or Google Maps. Who’s to say? Anyway, we touched briefly on the day’s weather but were not particularly concerned about anything else happening. We checked radar while leaving and all looked good.
I got back to my desk and noticed a few people pinging me about a Reed Timmer tweet discussing rain-wrapped tornado potential in southeast Texas. Reed’s a good guy and a very smart meteorologist, but he also has tons of enthusiasm. His brand is to dominate and never stop chasing. My first reaction admittedly was to roll my eyes, but then I checked out the HRRR model, one of our hourly updating high-resolution weather models. Indeed, it lit up with supercells by 2 PM. But it was 2 PM. And there were no supercells.
So clearly it was overdoing it, and it would be necessary to watch subsequent runs to see what changes, as well as radar to observe the evolution of the storms. I decided to look at some other data, and I was surprised to see that despite clouds, haze, and mist (or even a heavy drizzle at times), the atmosphere was extremely unstable over the area.
The atmosphere over Houston around 2 PM on Thursday could be classified as highly unstable. (NOAA SPC)
And when you would dig deeper into the models, everything pointed to severe potential. But we also just went through this a few days ago with a major hail threat that basically failed to materialize with any consequence in Houston. In that case, we had the same situation in theory: Impressive instability and an atmosphere primed to rock. As a meteorologist, you look at this two ways: We just came off a semi-bust and you need to make sure you are more confident in something than normal before pushing it, and secondly you also can’t deny that the ingredients were there. A tornado watch was issued, which was a little surprising, though given the parameters there was no good reason to argue much against it.
When I looked at model data, it appeared that any supercell risk would track from the southwest to northeast. I even highlighted a cell around Spring at about 4:25 that I thought was showing signs of trending toward something more meaningful. I went to pick up my oldest from school and came back intending to help him do some homework. Even by about 5:10 or so, it seemed pretty straightforward: A line of severe storms with gusty, maybe localized damaging winds was moving through Brenham and toward Waller County, and we’d probably get it through by 7 or 8 PM and that would be that.
Radar at 5:10 PM showing a line of severe storms west of Waller County with heavy rain as predicted to the north of The Woodlands and Conroe. (RadarScope)
Things began to change quickly about 15 minutes later. It was evident that rotation had begun to develop on the leading edge of the bowing line near Bellville. And it seems likely that a tornado may have been put down just east of there shortly thereafter. That is not necessarily uncommon. It’s often how we get our tornadoes locally, but it’s usually brief and disappears after 5 to 10 minutes. And indeed, the rotation weakened some, but at 5:35, it flared back up again, just west of FM 359 to the east of Bellville. Thereafter, it absolutely exploded near Pine Island and just south of 290 in Prairie View. By 5:40 to 5:45, we clearly had a problem.
A two panel radar image at 5:43 PM showing tremendous rain on the left and vigorous, violent winds and rotation on the right, centered just south of Pine Island. (RadarScope)
I have been in Houston for about 12 years as of this week, and I cannot recall seeing this type of velocity signature (the right-hand panel) show up in this area. When you see this as a meteorologist, it either means a violent tornado is underway, or destructive winds are probable. At times, it looked like you could pick out a debris signature on radar that would essentially confirm a tornado, but it never took off, which led me to believe that this was becoming a major straight line wind event.
I had been texting a bit with Justin Ballard, the Houston Chronicle’s fine meteorologist earlier about the tornado watch. We both expressed some skepticism it would produce. He texted me at 6:07 in the middle of this saying, “Yeah, that doesn’t look like a bad decision after all.” Yes, many of us talk to one another. Yes, we occasionally have opinions on things.
Anyway, this continued to march east-southeast and slowly expand. At this point, it becomes straightforward: Monitor it and warn and clear. I had posted to Twitter in a tone I very, very rarely ever use. I don’t throw around language like “Treat this like a tornado” very often. We had gotten very few damage reports up to that point, but the radar was indicating 110 mph winds down to about 2,500 feet. By 6:23 PM, radar showed 120 mph winds down below 2,000 feet approaching Oak Forest. Does all that reach the ground? No. But a lot of it can. It also made me gravely concerned for the downtown high rises.
Insane winds down to about 2,000 feet moving into the northwest Loop at 6:23 PM. Whether or not it was a tornado, the outcome would be similar. (RadarScope)
We’ll find out more today and tomorrow about specifics on damage and what was a tornado or straight line winds. Whatever the case, this was one of the most ferocious storms I’ve ever seen. This was a smaller scale version of what occurred in Iowa a few years back, when they had 140 mph winds down to about 1,000 feet but over a wider area. Whether or not this gets classified as a derecho will remain to be seen. I think it probably falls just short of that metric because of some discontinuity in the damage report path, but honestly, does it matter? It will take time to pick up from this one, and we hope our readers are safe. A major kudos goes out to the many media meteorologists and NWS meteorologists that assisted in keeping as many people safe and informed as possible. Saving lives is rarely a literal thing for a meteorologist. I am thinking that it was for many last night.
I’ll close with a bit of a sobering note: Hurricane season begins in about 2 weeks. What many of you witnessed last night would be experienced not over a few minutes but over several hours over a large area if a truly potent hurricane found its way into the Houston area. By living in this region, you have to accept the risks associated with that. We know a lot about flooding. Most of us know about surge. Very few knew about wind and what it’s really like. Many do now. Use this experience to inform your preparation for hurricane season just in case. Houston has been through an absolute meat grinder of weather disasters in the last 10 years. Candidly, it sucks, but we should know enough now to prepare for the next one.
“Judge Judy” Sheindlin sued Accelerate360 Media, the parent company of the National Enquirer and InTouch Weekly, for a story ran in both publications falsely claiming that she was helping the Menendez brothers secure a retrial for their 1989 murder conviction. What do you think?
NEWTON, MA—Recoiling at the sight of the waterlogged creature’s bloated remains, local dad Jeffrey Hanford reportedly removed his home’s pool cover for the season Friday and gagged after finding a dead mermaid in there. “Oh God, it must have found its way in and not been able to get back out—I wondered why it smelled…
After 34 years, the iconic Mirage Hotel and Casino on the Las Vegas strip will close its doors after it was bought by Hard Rock Las Vegas, which will completely renovate the building, removing its tropical theme and volcano attraction. What do you think?
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA – At its annual developer conference, Google has proudly unveiled the numerous AIs it will be forcing into its products until some point in the not-too-distant future when every AI is quietly removed with no fanfare. “Google has always been at the forefront of jumping on trendy techno bandwagons and then abandoning […]
In this era of economic turmoil, climate catastrophe, and cliques of cool teens just waiting to make fun of your shoes, we live in a heightened state of fear. We’re afraid of the world and afraid of each other—but not nearly as afraid as we should be! McSweeney’s contributor (and co-executive producer on Family Guy) Evan Waite’s absurdly hilarious survival guide, Life Wants You Dead: A Calm, Rational, and Totally Legit Guide to Scaring Yourself Safe demonstrates that being afraid of literally everything is the only guaranteed way to stay safe.
Today, we’re happy to offer an excerpt from this important and very funny guide.
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Ruining Your Credit So No One Wants to Steal Your Identity
Over sixteen million people a year are victims of identity theft. Falling prey to this scam can increase your insurance premiums, give you trouble with the IRS and fade you from photos like Marty McFly.
It can happen to anyone, especially you. And that’s because you’ve been fiscally responsible, which is very irresponsible. Having good credit is the financial equivalent of strutting through a dive bar dripping with diamonds. Why not also wear a sign that says “Come and get it”? The solution, my friend, is to wreck your finances so badly that criminals treat your identity like a dead skunk and steer clear.
Your payment history plays a big role in determining your credit score, so try to pay your bills late. Consider cultivating a grudge by paying with a greasy, food-stained check, with the words “I spit on your remittance schedule!” in the memo line, perhaps with a few “hahas” at the end. To expedite this process, you can also simply not pay your bills at all.
Identity thieves will try to drain your bank account, so beat them to it. Buy a pool table! Don’t worry if it doesn’t quite fit in your house. Lease a speedboat! It doesn’t matter that you’re two states away from the nearest body of water. Just throw cash in a ditch! I can share the coordinates for the perfect ditch for this, actually. Turning your account into a smoking hole where money once was is a great way to ward off thieves.
Next, max out your credit cards. Consider taking out a business loan for that idea you had for a bakery that also gives haircuts. When the health department shuts you down because there are beard clumps in the biscotti, double down by taking out a second mortgage on your house. Maybe you’ll be evicted! If your spouse finds out and begs you to stop, understand this to be misguided and maybe a little selfish. Your identity is at stake! Consider divorce, which is a handy way to drag your credit through the mud.
According to recent data that probably exists, there is a direct correlation between how stinky you are and your likelihood of becoming the victim of a data breach. Criminals tend to avoid taking on the identity of unwashed slobs, so forgoing bathing could be your ticket to financial security. Grow mutton chops and eat oatmeal without a spoon. Don’t change your socks, ever. Given that this wards off only those who are nearby and downwind, try to broadcast your putrid state on social media. Think about adding stink lines to selfies.
I know it can be scary to put these ideas into practice, but trust me, it works. I used to lead a dangerously successful life, with a great job and a nice house. I had a sweet car, and would drive it around where everyone could see. I was just asking for trouble. But through a series of strategically poor decisions, and a frightening online poker addiction I chose not to seek help for, I spiraled down into the gutter and haven’t looked back since. Now I live under a bridge, and no one wants to steal my identity or even make eye contact with me when I ask them for their leftovers.
PHOENIX—Trying for weeks to deliver a summons on charges of felony election interference to the former Donald Trump attorney, Arizona prosecutors reported Thursday they were still unable to locate Rudy Giuliani despite searching dozens of local landfills across the state. “Our multiple attempts to serve Mr. Giuliani…
PALM BEACH, FL — Following weeks of speculation about who Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will choose to run with him as VP, reporters and political junkies have been thrown a curve ball with Canada’s Progressive Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s surprise announcement that he would be honoured to take on the role. “Thanks to […]
OTTAWA — In a stunning revelation that has shaken the personal care industry to its core, the makers of Düush+, a popular men’s 9-in-1 body wash, have admitted that the product is actually just laundry detergent. Max De Groot, the founder and CEO of RealSuds, made the announcement during a press conference on Tuesday. “It’s […]
A truckload of honey bees heading to pollinate Maine’s blueberry crop crashed on Interstate 95, releasing a swarm of 15 million insects before firefighters responding to the scene could contain them. What do you think?
BOCA CHICA, TX—Accusing the billionaire tech mogul of dragging down property values, neighbors of Elon Musk told reporters Thursday they were fed up with his eyesore yard covered in broken-down Cybertrucks. “I don’t know if the guy who lives there is sick or has fallen on hard times or what, but I’m sorry—that yard…
TALLAHASSEE, FL—Touting the legislation as a common-sense victory for family values, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed a new law Thursday requiring all Florida women to produce three healthy, white sons by the date of their 22nd birthday. “The production of white daughters will not be penalized, but they will be seized by…
During a commencement speech at Benedictine College, Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker railed against Biden, Pride month, and abortion rights before addressing the women in the audience, saying, “Some of you may go on to lead successful careers in the world, but I would venture to guess that the majority of…
An art installation called the Portal, which allows people in New York City and Dublin to watch and interact with each other in a continuous live stream, has been temporarily shut down to address problems with inappropriate behavior, as visitors have taken to flashing body parts and curse words. What do you think?
Johnny McEntee, a former aide in the Trump White House, recently bragged on social media about giving fake money to unhoused people to ensure their eventual arrest, claiming on TikTok that “when a homeless person asks for money, then I give them like a fake $5 bill. So I feel good about myself. They feel good. And…
