Four
billion more people than the 7.2 billion now alive could be fed an
adequate diet if current crop production devoted to nonfood uses,
such as animal feed and biofuels, were switched to direct
consumption. This is one the fascinating calculations made in a
new
article published in Science by a team of researchers
led by Paul West, a researcher at the University of Minnesota's
Institute on the Environment. West and his colleagues are looking
for "leverage points" in global agriculture that would reduce
humanity's impact on the natural world while at the same time
providing more than enough food for the 9 billion or so people who
will be alive in 2050.
This analysis stands in stark counterpoint to the perennial
apocalyptic prophecies of impending famine spawned by
overpopulation. Last year, in the Proceedings of the Royal
Society B, the Population
Bomber himself, Paul Ehrlich and his wife Anne asked yet again,
"Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?" and answered
that the "human
predicament is driven by overpopulation" among other horrors.
In his 2013 screed, Ten Billion, Cambridge University
computer scientist Stephen Emmott argued that humanity's growing
population constitutes "an
unprecedented planetary emergency." In addition, Emmott
claimed, "By 2050, 1 billion hectares of land is likely to be
cleared to meet rising food demands from a growing population. This
is an area greater than the U.S."
West and his colleagues focus their analysis on 17 major crops
consisting of the 16 highest-caloric crops consumed as food and
cotton. They occupy 58 percent of the world's croplands and produce
86 percent of world's crop calories. They are specifically looking
to see if it will be possible to boost crop production on the
current land base while at the same time cutting inputs like
fertilizer and irrigation that sometimes generate deleterious
side-effects on the natural world.
One particularly promising strategy is closing the "yield gap."
The yield gap is the difference between current yields and those
possible using modern farming techniques. For example, corn yield
in the United States averages
162 bushels per acre. In Africa, India, and Latin
America, corn yields average 32, 41, and 48 bushels per acre
respectively. The world average is 81 bushels per acre. West and
his colleagues calculate that raising yields in low performing
areas to 50 percent of the attainable level would produce enough
calories to meet the basic need of about 850 million people. This
may be too conservative a figure.
In 2012, Jesse Ausubel, director the Human Environment Program
at Rockefeller University, and his colleagues suggested that the
world was on the brink of "peak
farmland." Future agricultural productivity will be so great
that farmers will increasingly spare more land for nature. How
much? Depending on how demand for biofuels develop farmers will
return between 146 million and 400 million hectares to nature. The
first is an area the size of France, Spain, Portugal, and Britain
combined, and the second is about equal to all the land in the
United States east of the Mississippi River. This is quite in
contrast to Emmot's baleful auguries about future land use.
Current practices of using modern fertilizers also result in
harmful side effects including enhanced man-made global warming and
the creation of algal blooms and dead zones in the oceans. Nitrogen
and phosphorous fertilizers have been critical to boosting crop
production over the past century. University of Manitoba
environmental researcher Vaclav Smil reckons that
40 percent of the world's dietary protein now originates from
synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. West and his colleagues calculate
that the nutrients in harvested crops account for only 40 percent
of the nitrogen fertilizer and 52 percent of the phosphorous spread
by farmers, much of the rest runs off the fields into streams,
lakes and the oceans. Given this excess, they estimate nitrogen and
phosphorous applied to wheat, rice and corn could be cut by 14 to
29 percent and 13 to 33 percent respectively while maintaining
current yields.
Irrigation accounts for about 70 percent of all freshwater
withdrawals and 90 percent of water consumption. The researchers
looked only at croplands where evaporation rates exceed
precipitation rates. Just raising the productivity of irrigated
land currently languishing in the bottom 20th percentile
to above that benchmark would decrease water consumption by 8 to 15
percent while keeping food production constant.
The "diet gap" is defined as those crop calories that people
could eat that do not end up in the food supply. Most of these are
crops grown for animal feed and biofuels. Between 1961 and 2009,
the portion of crops consumed directly as food has dropped from 57
to 51 percent. As noted in the beginning, if people consumed food
crops directly, 70 percent more calories would become available,
which is enough to feed an additional 4 billion people. The
researchers figure that corn production in the United States
accounts for 19 percent of their diet gap, representing enough
calories to feed 760 million people. With considerable
understatement, the researchers observe, "Although the diet gap
presents opportunities to improve food security, cultural
preferences and political obstacles create large challenges to
reducing meat as well as overconsumption." Translation: People love
to eat meat.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
reports that average global meat consumption per capita increased
from 53 pounds in
1965 to 91 pounds today. The average American eats about
270 pounds of meat annually. Interestingly, the per capita
consumption of beef on a global basis has been essentially flat
while there are big gains in pork and chicken. Recent research
suggests that switching from a high
meat diet to a vegan diet would cut an individual's greenhouse
emissions associated with food production in half.
A lot of food is wasted. West and his colleagues cite a report
from the FAO that estimates that, for example, around 30 percent of
cereal grains are lost between harvest and consumption. They
calculate that curbing consumer waste of foods made from wheat,
rice, vegetables, and meat in the United States, China, and India
could feed 413 million people.
What makes this study noteworthy is that it assumes no new
agricultural or food production technologies, instead its analysis
concludes that more judiciously deploying what is already available
would be more than enough feed the world's future population.
Nevertheless, significant new food and agricultural technologies
are in the pipeline. Consider the problem of excess nitrogen.
Biotechnology researchers are hard at work at developing crops that
use much less nitrogen fertilizer as they increase yields. For
example, the biotech seed company Arcadia Biosciences announced in
2013 that nitrogen use efficient variety of rice out-produced
conventional varieties while
using 50 percent less nitrogen. Meanwhile researchers at the
International Rice Research Institute are heading up a project to
endow rice with the more efficient C4 form of photosynthesis found
in corn. If successful, the new rice varieties would need less
water and fertilizer and yield 50
percent more grain than the best current varieties.
Solutions to providing more food may also come from outside of
traditional agriculture. The concept of a diet gap makes it clear
that growing a pound of meat takes a lot of feed and water. A 2011
study in Environmental Science & Technology calculated
that vat-grown meat
could lower energy use by approximately 7–45 percent, shrink
greenhouse gas emissions by 78-96 percent, cut land use by 99
percent and reduce water use by 82-96 percent. And in 2013 other
researchers reported that they have figured out how to turn
abundant cellulose locked up in trees and grass into edible
starches and glucose suitable for fermenting into biofuels.
West and his colleagues acknowledge that more work is needed to
figure out how to get best practices that they identified widely
adopted. Nevertheless they conclude that "a relatively small set of
places and actions could provide enough new calories to meet the
basic needs for more than 3 billion [and simultaneously] address
many environmental impacts with global consequences."
In other words, the prophets of overpopulation doom and imminent
global famine will likely once again be disappointed.