Lars Christensen plots with recent data a version of the Taylor rule I proposed some years ago (published here). I suggested this rule as an approximate description of Alan Greenspan's monetary policy in the 1990s. Here is Lars's plot:
Click on graphic to enlarge
I based this rule (the green line) on data only from the 1990s, but notice that it does reasonably well until 2009. The red line is the rule with parameters estimated from the later period.
Taken at face value, the rule suggests that it is time for the Fed to start raising the federal funds rate. If you believe this rule was reasonably good during the period of the Great Moderation, does this mean the Fed should start tightening now, as the economy gets back to normal?
Maybe, but not necessarily. There are two problems with interpreting such rules today.
The first and most obvious problem is that odd things have been happening in the labor market for the past several years. The unemployment rate (one of the right hand side variables in this rule) may not be a reliable indicator of slack.
The second and more subtle problem is the nagging issue of the zero lower bound. For several years, the rule suggested a target federal funds rate deeply in the negative territory. We are out of that range now, but should the past "errors" influence our target today? An argument can be made that because the Fed kept the target rate "too high" for so long (that is, at zero rather than negative), it should commit itself now to keeping the target "too low" as compensation (that is, at zero for longer than the rule recommends). By systematically doing so, the Fed encourages long rates to fall by more whenever the economy hits the zero lower bound. Such a policy might lead to greater stability than strict adherence to the rule as soon as we leave negative territory.
The time for the Fed to raise the target rate may be soon, but I don't think we are quite there.
Update: Ricardo Reis writes to me the following useful observation:
There is another (related) argument for not raising rates now to offset shortfalls in the past. It is not about the interest rate. It is about the price level, the ultimate goal of monetary policy and measure of its performance.
If you plot the PCE deflator, there is a clear shortfall relative to a 2% price-level target. A 2% price level target fits very well during Greenspan's time. By the end of 2008, we were exactly on the 1992-target. But when I look at that plot starting in 2009 until the most recent data I see a gap.
A price-level target rule is optimal in normal times (Ball, Mankiw, and Reis) but is also an optimal policy in response to the dangers of the zero lower bound (Woodford). We have to catch up for the shortfall in the price level right now. And if you look at inflation expectations from surveys or markets, there seems to be no catch up expected, indicating that policy is still too tight.
Caution: Users are warned that this work is protected under copyright laws and downloading is strictly prohibited. The right to reproduce or transfer the work via any medium must be secured with Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC.
Source: Collected Poems (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1994)
It’s strange but true: the cuter something is, the more you want to put it in your mouth. (What lips can resist the gravitational pull of a fat baby’s jiggly cheeks or scrumptious thigh rolls?) As a result, various products and businesses have sprung up with…
i cant wait to start sous vide-ing some serious meat this fall
Ah, pork, I gnawed you well.
Do you remember back in the day when your mom cooked every piece of pork until it was as dry as shoe leather Probably because she was afraid of it?
There are some cuts of pork that are perfectly happy being cooked for a long time. Like ribs. Or shoulder. A long, slow cook results in fall-off-the-bone tenderness. But other cuts ... not really. They just get dry and chewy.
Nowadays, pork-cooking recommendations have changed. Pork no longer needs to be incinerated. It can be a little bit pink. Even the USDA says that 145 degrees is safe, and chefs are setting that threshold even lower. While no one's advocating rare pork, pink is preferable.
And here's the deal about temperature safety. It's not just about the highest temperature that the food reaches. The time that the food is at a certain temperature also makes a difference. So, a lower temperature for a longer time has the same effect (as far as safety) as a higher temperature for a shorter time. It's just like pasteurization, where milk can be heated to 161 degrees for 15 seconds or it can be heated 280 degrees for 2 seconds.
When I got some pork chops from Frontiere Natural Meats, they seemed to be the perfect candidates for sous vide cooking.
It turns out, I was right. These chops were fantastic. Okay, it was good meat to start with, but sous vide was a great technique for cooking them.
While cooking something using sous vide can take a looooong time, like the 72-hour short ribs I made a while back, that time is mostly unattended.
If you're sous vide cooking for a ridiculously long time, you might need to add some water to the pot as it evaporates, but other than that, you just let it go. Since we're not talking about unattended fire, the risk of something going horribly wrong is pretty low, much like having a waterfall or a fish tank left unattended.
In this case, I cooked the pork chops in the sous vide, and then seared them to get a pretty brown crust - and to add some seasoning. Since the chops from Frontiere were vacuum-sealed in their own pouches, I didn't even bother taking them out and re-sealing them in my own bags - I just plopped them into the warm water, and let them circulate.
How easy is that?
The result was fully-cooked, but slightly pink meat. It was tender and juicy, with a nicely seasoned crust from searing them after they were cooked.
Sous Vide Pork Chops
3 thick cut boneless pork chops (or as many as you need, and that will fit) Salt and pepper, to taste Oil, for searing
If the chops aren't vacuum-sealed, place them in a vacuum-seal bag and vacuum and seal them. That was certainly an unwieldy sentence, wasn't it.
Place them in a sous vide bath at 140 degrees for 2 hours. Longer should be perfectly fine.
When the cooking time is done, remove them from the bags and pat them dry.
Heat a cast iron frying pan on medium-high heat. Drizzle your favorite cooking oil on the meat - just enough to coat it slightly. I used an olive oil blend that can handle relatively high heat. Grind on some fresh black pepper and sprinkle on some salt to taste.
Sear the chops on all sides.
Serve. You can leave them whole, or slice them for presentation.
Did I mention that the other nice thing about sous vide cooking is that you don't need to worry as much about resting time as with other cooking methods? When you roast or grill or fry meat, the temperature is still rising after you take it off the heat. In theory, you should let the meat rest until the temperature stabilized or begins to drop a bit. But with sous vide, the internal temperature is stable, and it's not going to rise after cooking. Pretty slick, huh?
Disclaimer: I receive meat from Frontiere so I can create recipes for my blog.
This show is hilarious unlike 'Girls' with leah dunham which makes me want to cut myself
Prepare to get meta: Comedy Central’s Broad City is using a web series to tease the next season of its television series which began as a web series. The teaser web series is called Hack Into Broad City, and a new episode dropped this morning on…
Just received word that the Tabernacle of Prayer church will be offering a rare tour of the unbelievable Valencia movie palace (read my full post here) THIS SATURDAY, September 27th, at 11am. My advice? YOU SHOULD GO!
Tours are by appointment only – contact Sister Forbes at 718-657-4210 ext. 20 to sign up and for further details. The tour is free, but if you’re planning on going, please please please consider making a donation to the church. They have worked tirelessly for decades to keep the movie palace in such excellent condition, and any help you can offer will go a long way.
I make one guarantee about the Valencia: you will never forget your first visit.
Just got back from vacation, new posts coming soon!
When Your Shot member Nicolas Le Boulanger sees his friends pet chameleon, housed in a terrarium, he cant help thinking that it's in the wrong place, even if its loved. I wanted to [relate] the confusion that this animal seems to feel as it is separated from its natural environment, he writes. His look seems to call for help.
Le Boulangers picture recently appeared in the Your Shot assignment Not Your Average Pet.
</p>This photo was submitted to Your Shot. Check out the new and improved website, where you can share photos, take part in assignments, lend your voice to stories, and connect with fellow photographers from around the globe.</p>
These strawberry bruschetta with bacon, candied pecans and goat cheese with a balsamic drizzle combine some of my favourite flavours and they are perfect for summer entertaining! Normally I would use these ingredients in a salad but they also work well in bruschetta form as finger food when entertaining. The juicy strawberries pair perfectly with the creamy goat cheese, the salty bacon and the tart balsamic vinegar and I like to top everything off with a touch of fresh basil to brighten things up! The candied pecans add a nice sweet crunch, though you could easily substitute regular pecans.
Today, Krispy Kreme UK gave away England’s biggest-ever box of doughnuts to a single winner via social media. The occasion? Krispy Kreme UK’s new Occasions service, where you can order doughnuts for any and every event. From wedding doughnut towers (yes, please)…
On Saturday, Swansea City will host Southampton in an English Premier League fixture in South Wales.28 Southampton was a founding member of the Premier League, having played at the top tier of English football since 1978 — football royalty. Swansea City, though, is a football Cinderella.
Swansea City was founded in 1912 as Swansea Town. It hovered in the middling leagues of the English sport for much of the century. But in the 1960s, the team tumbled down the ranks, eventually requiring a financial rescue package and High Court approval just to survive. In 2001, it was sold — for a pound. But fortunes turned once again, for the better. It was promoted in 2005, 2008 and, finally, in 2011. The team had arrived. It was in the Premier League.
Cinderella got her slipper.
The Premier League is the pinnacle of world football. Nearly 15 percent of the men who played in the 2014 World Cup play professionally in the Premier League, easily more than any other league in the world. Four English teams — Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City — have World Cup players numbering in the double digits.
But the EPL is just the tip of the English football iceberg. It’s the most visible element of an intricate hierarchy of some 7,000 football teams, playing under the auspices of the Football Association (the FA) — let’s call it the Great Football Pyramid of England. In terms of the number of teams, the Premier League represents about one-quarter of 1 percent of it. (This and much of the empirics here rely on information from football stats site ThePyramid.info, which in turn assembled data from the FA’s league administration website, and individual clubs’ and leagues’ sites.)
The pyramid has more than 20 levels and hundreds of leagues. This is what it looks like:
Importantly, unlike its analog in Giza, the Great Football Pyramid of England is not set in stone. The levels are linked through a process of promotion and relegation. Depending on the specific rules of a given tier, a number of teams that perform the best get to move up a level (promotion), and a number of teams that perform the worst have to move down a level (relegation). Each year, there is a minor upheaval of the hierarchy — a shifting of the pyramid. The romance, the beauty of this system is the following: Given strong enough performances and enough minor upheavals, in theory, any team can climb the ranks and, eventually, breathe the rarefied Premier League air.
Let’s take a deep dive into — or, rather, a steep climb down the side of — the English football pyramid.
The Premier League (Level 1)
On top of the pyramid — the capstone, Level 1 — is the Premier League. Twenty teams compose it. Some — Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea — are probably well-known to U.S. sports fans. A few — Hull City, Stoke City, West Bromwich Albion — probably are not. But all of these are competing for the most coveted award in English football: the Premier League title. Unlike most American sports, it’s the regular-season winner that matters here. There are no playoffs or championship series. Also unlike most American sports, any team may be taking part in a number of competitions at once — the league, the FA Cup, the League Cup — but the one that really matters these days is the league title.
As a result of the system of promotion and relegation, not every team has always had the pleasure of this competition. Like Swansea City, just about 10 years ago, Hull City was languishing. In 2003, the Tigers were members of the unglamorous fourth tier of the pyramid. But this team, too, climbed the summit. But, no rest for weary — Hull City are 5,000-to-1 dogs to win the title, and 9-2 to get relegated. Hull City will take on Newcastle United — four-time champions of England — this weekend.
The Premier League was formed, in its present incarnation, in 1992. Most of the teams in the Premier League for the 2014-15 season haven’t always been there. Here are the histories of the league’s current teams, by level of pyramid29:
The Football League (Levels 2, 3 and 4)
Within sight, but not quite within grasp, of the Premier League summit are the teams of the Football League. In fact, before the original Premier League teams essentially seceded in 1992, the Football League was the top league in England. Nowadays, the Football League encompasses Levels 2, 3 and 4 of the pyramid.
Level 2, just beneath the Premiership, is the Football League Championship. Each year, 24 teams compete here for three coveted promotions to the Premier League. The top two finishers at the end of the season earn automatic promotion. The next four, the third- to sixth-place finishers, compete in a playoff for the final promotion.
The secession of the Premier League by no means drained the Football League of its meaning. The consulting firm Deloitte has calculated that promotion to the Premier League is worth about $200 million in extra revenue for a Football League team. In some cases, the difference between promotion and relegation can come down to one game. And in some cases, in can come down to one minute.
A moment from the end of last season well exhibits the high drama that plays out in the Football League. Facing elimination, and another season in the second tier, Queens Park Rangers doggedly advance the ball up the field, with the seconds waning. After a cross and a misplayed clearance, QPR’s Bobby Zamora sends his team to the Premiership in the last minute of the last game of the season — in a decisive part of the playoff to determine the promoted team. They call it the “120 million pound goal.”
Often, the difference between a lengthy stint in the Football League and Premiership glory is money — the investment of wealthy club backers. The fascinating behind-the-scenes documentary “The Four Year Plan,” for example, explores the investment by a group of billionaires into Queens Park Rangers, an attempt to elevate the team to the Premiership. Money can secure players, players can secure wins, and wins can secure promotion. And promotion means, well, money.
A promotion or two away, we find the next levels of the pyramid. Levels 3 and 4 are known as Football League One and Football League Two. Football League One promotes three teams to the Football League Championship and relegates four to Football League Two, respectively. Football League Two promotes four to Football League One and relegates two out of the Football League altogether, to Level 5 of the pyramid.
These leagues are not without their storied members. Football League One is currently the home of one of the most interesting teams in the history of the English football hierarchy — Milton Keynes Dons.
Well, sort of. They weren’t always known as MK Dons.
The Wimbledon Football Club was founded in 1889, in Wimbledon, in southwest London. A century later, it completed one of the most remarkable rises to prominence of any club ever. According to the Football Club History Database, Wimbledon spent most of the 20th century in the Isthmian League — currently Levels 7 and 8 on the pyramid. But it was promoted, and promoted, and promoted, and promoted again. It won the 1987-88 FA Cup and was a founding member of the Premier League in 1992.
But who owns this history has been a subject of bitter controversy. In 2003, the team relocated to a new stadium, about 60 miles away in the town of Milton Keynes, taking the town’s name but retaining Wimbledon’s “Dons” nickname — and laying a claim to Wimbledon F.C.’s history and hardware. But there is another Dons club, which objects. AFC Wimbledon, based in southwest London, was formed in 2002 by fans dissatisfied with the move of their former home team.
Currently, MK Dons play in Level 3, while AFC Wimbledon Dons play in Level 4. The two teams with the shared, messy heritage played in a Football League Cup game last month. MK Dons won, 3-1.
The National League System (Levels 5 to 11)
The next seven levels of the pyramid (Levels 5 through 11) are referred to as the National League System.
Anyone familiar with the details of, say, royal succession, might not be surprised to learn of the arcane nature of the depths of the English football pyramid. Anyone considering a certainly non-habit-forming alternative to Ambien might do well to peruse a guide to club structures of the English league system.
Teams competing in the National League System have to squint to see the Premier League above them, but membership here still matters — a lot. Teams in this section of the pyramid are the last eligible to compete in the FA Cup — a prestigious knockout tournament and the oldest football tournament played. Think March Madness — Premiership teams compete alongside teams many rungs beneath them, and a single loss sends them home. As in basketball, this creates fairy-tale possibilities — giant-killing, and Cinderella runs.30 (However, the defending champions of the FA Cup are the elite Arsenal squad.)
The NCAA basketball tournament, of course, begins with 68 teams. The 2013-14 instance of the FA Cup began with 737. (Imagine March Madness with every Division I team, every Division II team and maybe some really good high school teams.) And a low-level team need not win the Cup to see a windfall. The FA awards 18,000 pounds even for a first-round win — a potentially huge boon to a club trying to climb the ladder or stay afloat.
Teams in the lower regions of this group can also compete for other FA hardware, including the FA Trophy (open to Levels 5 through 8, with 50,000 pounds going to the winner) and the FA Vase (Levels 9 through 11, 25,000 pounds). In just these two relatively minor competitions, last year the FA awarded 1.6 million pounds, or about $2.7 million, in prize money.
Here’s a summary of the competitions open to the teams in the National League System and above (this excludes, of course, the regular-season competitions being played in the leagues themselves):
The Pyramid’s (Wide, Wide) Base (Levels 12 to 24)
Believe it or not, we’re not through yet. Not even, like, close. Behold the “non-League” teams.
By my calculations, from the ThePyramid’s information, there are 446 separate divisions hosting competition at Level 12 and below. And there are 5,510 teams! Depending on how many players low-tier teams keep on their rosters, there is something like 100,000 soccer players on teams in the pyramid.
The rules of the Duchy League — in Level 15 and sponsored by J.J. Jones & Sons building contractors — state, “If … two Clubs have the same or similar colours, the away team shall make the change. Any team not having a change of colours or delaying the kick-off by not having a change shall be fined £10.00.”
The East Sussex Football League — Level 12, sponsored by ADA Turkish Barbecue & Meze Bar — charges a one pound fee for each player a team registers. Referees in this league earn 29 pounds a match. Unable, for some reason, to play in your normal team colors in this league? Sorry, that’ll be 20 pounds.
What these teams lack in salary or facilities, they make up for in character, including their names, which are fantastic and undeniably English. A sample: Uphill Castle, Viney St. Swithins, the Kidlington Old Boys, the Victoria Baptists, the Didcot Casuals, Capel Plough, Quedgeley Wanderers, Kimberley Miners Welfare, Uffington United.
To give a sense of scope, here’s a histogram of these leagues by size:
When the 20 Premier League teams do battle this weekend, millions will watch. But thousands of other English football teams will do battle, too. And, for the most part, the pyramid will not be televised.
i'm gonna have to check this out next time i'm in chucktown.
“Women Painting Women” is a collaborative project, founded by Sadie Valeri, Alia El Bermani and Diane Feissel, that’s been represented by a blog since 2009, and showcased as an annual exhibition at the Principle Gallery in Charleston, SC for the past five years.
The title is perfectly descriptive, and the list of highly skilled participating artists continues to grow. The Principle Gallery’s website features an extensive slideshow of work from the current exhibition.
Pay it Forward is a concurrent exhibition at the Principle Gallery location in Alexandria, VA, in which the established artists are using their position to bring exposure to a group of younger artists.
The Principle Gallery’s websites tell when the shows begin, but leave us clueless as to how long they run, so your guess is as good as mine.
[Addendum: The Principle Gallery's director has been kind enough to let me know that the Women Painting Women exhibition continues through the end of September, with a few pieces remaining on view into October. She has also pointed to a PDF catalog for the show.]
(Images above: Olga Krimon, Laurie Brom, Thresa Morgan, Judy Takacs, Samantha Hand, Laura Thompson, Stephanie Deshpande, Sara Sniderhan, Anne-Marie Kornachuk, Meg Aiken, Julia Diller, Nalara Castellanos)
Thousands of people today started to evacuate the area near the Mayon Volcano in the Philippines after scientists warned of an imminent eruption. Compiled here are images from volcanic activity around the globe in the last couple of months. --Lloyd Young (18 photos total)
Lava cascades flow down the slope of restive Mayon Volcano as seen from Legazpi City, Albay province, Philippines, on Sept. 17. Tens of thousands of people living near the Philippines' most active volcano began to evacuate after increased activity prompted government scientists to warn of an imminent eruption. Dozens of military trucks were dispatched to pick up the residents in the danger zones around Mayon Volcano in Albay province. An estimated 12,000 families or nearly 60,000 residents are in the danger zones that affect three cities and five towns in Albay province. (Zalrian Z. Sayat/EPA)
I hadn't planned posting this as a recipe, but I needed to make a little pizza for a photo for a post I was writing about unique ways to use a cast iron frying pan.
One of my interesting options was to use the frying pan upside-down in the oven to bake the pizza. Like using a cast iron pizza stone.
So I threw together this dough, and it turned out pretty darned good, so I wanted to save the recipe - for myself. Of course, the best place to save it is on this blog.
This makes just enough for two small pizzas, each about 8 inches in diameter.
Pizza Dough
1/2 cup water, plus 2 tablespoons 1 teaspoon yeast 1 teaspoon sugar 1 cup (4 1/2 ounces) bread flour 1/2 cup (3 ounces) semolina flour 1/2 teaspoon salt 1 tablespoon olive oil
Combine all the ingredients in the bowl of your stand mixer fitted with the dough hook. Knead until the dough is smooth and elastic.
Cover the bowl and set aside until the dough has doubled in size, about an hour.
Put a large cast iron frying pan in the oven, upside-down (you'll be cooking on the bottom of the pan). Note: You might want to measure the bottom of that pan to see how large it is, so you know how large you can roll your pizza dough. My pan was 9 inches in diameter, so I figured that an 8-inch pizza would be the maximum.
Flour your work surface and turn out the dough. Knead briefly, the divide into two pieces. Roll the first piece to the size you need it. Sprinkle a pizza peel with cornmeal and place the pizza on the peel Top it as desired - I used some basil pesto and some cheese - nothing fancy.
Use the peel to transfer the pizza to the frying pan bottom. Cook until the crust is brown and the cheese is bubbly and browned in a few spots.
Remove the pizza from the pan - the easiest thing to do was grab it with tongs and slide it onto the peel.
Yes, you read it right. Seventy-two hours. That's three full days of cooking.
I found the recipe on the Modernist Cuisine site and figured I'd give it a try. I bought two small packages of beef short ribs, vacuum-sealed them in a bag, and put them into a very large pot with the sous vide set to cook for 72 hours at 144 degrees.
I was a little worried about how much water would evaporate, particularly overnight, so I used a big pot and filled it to the max line on the Anova sous vide device. Then I used aluminum foil to cover the pot.
I did replenish the water a couple times, when it had noticeably dropped, but I might have been able to cook it the whole time without refilling. It didn't evaporate all that fast. Probably because the temperature wasn't all that high, hmmmmm? Okay, confession. These didn't actually cook 72 hours. They cooked for about 71 hours because I wasn't thinking quite straight when I started cooking, and at 71 hours it was dinner time and I didn't want to wait any longer. But I figure that the difference between 71 hours and 72 hours wouldn't have been that significant.
The short ribs were pretty amazing. They were incredibly tender - possibly even more tender than a traditional long-braised beef. And not stringy. Still pink inside. And even though I didn't add any salt or seasonings (because I wanted to see what the sous vide did for the flavor) they were incredibly flavorful.
If I never ever ever cooked anything else sous vide, it would be worth it to have the Anova just for this. Seriously.
Photograph by Felix Inden, National Geographic Your Shot
Hunched like an animal in repose, a large piece of ice catches the light at Breidamerkursandur, a black-sand beach in southeastern Iceland. Just after sunrise, Your Shot member Felix Inden had left behind a portion of the beach crowded with photo tours. I just wanted to be alone and look at those waves, patterns, and ice, he writes. This particular piece caught his eye quickly as he walked down the beach. Somehow I felt that we were friends and called him Luigi.
Indens picture recently appeared in Your Shots Daily Dozen.
</p>This photo was submitted to Your Shot. Check out the new and improved website, where you can share photos, take part in assignments, lend your voice to stories, and connect with fellow photographers from around the globe.</p>
All photos by Liz Barclay (@liz_barclay). Special thanks to Eryn Reese and Death & Co. for helping to recreate these obscure tipples. A few months ago, I had a conversation with a dedicated cocktail maven who was bemoaning the fact…
Two friends, who had lost contact for many years, were catching up with each other. One asked, "So, you've got your own company, huh? How lucky!" The other replied, "Just a small one, nothing to be proud of."
Disbelieving, the first queried, "Small? How many people work in your company?"
my first thought was how did they catch the guy doing this? Turns out the customer walked into the store and saw him balls out. "“He confronted Symonds, who then apologized. He asked Symonds his age, and when he responded with 18 he stated, ‘So you are old enough to know better than to put your balls on someone’s pizza.’ Symonds responded by saying, ‘Yes.’"
Here’s how to avoid finding a pubic hair in your dinner: Don’t order it right before closing time. Austin Symonds—a Papa Murphy’s employee in Georgetown, TX—was so frustrated at a last-minute order that he rubbed his testicles on the customer’s uncooked stuffed-crust Hawaiian pizza,…
Spanish creative agency Txaber has come out with a beer packaging design concept that pairs the color of each type of beer with its corresponding Pantone shade. Are you in the mood for a golden 123 C (lager), or a 426 C (porter)? View more images of…
Medium: Oil on canvas Dimensions: 26 x 35 in. (66 x 88.9 cm) Classification: Paintings Credit Line: Purchase, Gwynne Andrews Fund, and Bequests of Collis P. Huntington and Ogden Mills, by exchange, 1994 Accession Number: 1994.142
Information about hundreds of thousands of works of art is available in The Metropolitan Museum of Art's Collection Database.
Photograph by Tracey Jennings, National Geographic Your Shot
While traveling in Central America, Your Shot member Tracey Jennings dove in the waters off Costa Ricas Cocos Island, a 36-hour sail from the mainland. On this particular dive, at a site called Dirty Rock, I was mesmerized both by how remote and how beautiful the volcanic scenery was, Jennings writes. As we swam along, I looked up and noticed a school of horse-eye jacks spilling over the rock like a waterfall.
America es un gran burrito, a giant tortilla stuffed with dreams. Or so it seems to me, now that I’ve eaten my way across it.
Early this year, FiveThirtyEight evaluated 67,391 burrito-selling establishments, huddled with food experts and selected 64 of the nation’s finest burritos to compete in the search for America’s best burrito. Since then, this burrito correspondent has traveled more than 20,000 miles around the United States and eaten 84 burritos in two rounds (to say nothing of the dozens of extracurricular burritos I polished off).
I journeyed from Key West to Hawaii in search of gastronomic nirvana. I snarfed breakfast burritos, burritos with french fries, and an avant-garde burrito stuffed with Cap’n Crunch-encrusted tilapia. I gobbled burritos from trucks, stands and brick-and-mortar establishments (not to mention a couple of vending machines). I bought a six pack of burritos in New Mexico for $11 and a haute burrito in Phoenix for $18.50.
The four Burrito Bracket finalists, clockwise from top left: Delicious Mexican Eatery, Taqueria Tlaxcalli, La Taqueria, Al & Bea’s Mexican Food.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
Unlike the many burritophiles who claim allegiance to one particular style, I have come to love all the varieties as if they were my own children. I’m sorry to be so Pollyanna, but it’s true. I had no idea how difficult it would be to choose winners, to eliminate burritos that are so delicious they occupy my dreams and dinner table conversations.
But alas, a competition this is. And there can be just one winner.
To up the ante in this third and final round, I brought along El Padrino, Nate Silver, to relive his glory days as a burrito blogger and give him a taste of the nation’s four best burritos. Our four-day, coast-to-coast burrito boondoggle would lead us through a range of flavors and restaurant personalities. Somewhere along the way, we’d find our winner.
Delicious Mexican Eatery
EL PASO, TEXAS
In the dark hours of a Monday morning, Nate and I took off from our respective locales, joining forces at midday in El Paso. We were tired but hungry as we drove through radiating Texas heat to our first stop: Delicious Mexican Eatery on Fort Boulevard. Located at the nexus of Fort Bliss, Franklin Mountain State Park and the U.S.-Mexico border, the restaurant has been churning out rolled, petite Paso del Norte-style burritos for 36 years.
In the first round of our competition, Delicious was part of a motley group, facing off against burritos in Seattle, Idaho and Hawaii. The last of these was surprisingly awesome, stuffed with kalua pig and a perfectly sweet and salty guava barbecue sauce. Although I can close my eyes and almost taste that burrito (I ate three of them in the 36 hours I was on the island), there was no way it could beat out this border-city classic.
Clockwise from top left: Delicious Mexican Eatery, Kono’s, Joel’s, Rancho Bravo.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
In the next round, Delicious faced off against one of the best contestants in the burrito-fueled Bay Area (and my personal go-to whenever I’m in San Francisco), Taqueria Cancún. Cancún made a few missteps, serving a dry and oily bundle, while Delicious ramped up the flavor for Round 2, earning the small Texas eatery a place in the final four.
Clockwise from top left: Taqueria Cancún, Little Donkey, El Pélon Taqueria, Delicious Mexican Eatery.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
El Paso is every bit as much a burrito city as San Francisco, more so in many ways, but it is far less discussed in national burrito circles. I’ve spent time there because I have family nearby, so I’d never thought of El Paso as particularly obscure. But the bracket has taught me how little most people know about this pocket of the country. El Paso and its conjoined twin, Juarez (I like to think of burritos as their shared lifeblood), are isolated geographically, far from the Texan hubs of Houston and Dallas, and have a culture all their own. That extends to the El Paso burrito’s construction, which is far less understood than that of its portly San Francisco cousin, so let’s recap.
As I’ve mentioned before, these burritos are simple and elegant, relying on fresh, tasty tortillas, and just a few ingredients in the form of a guisado — a stew or casserole-type filling. After the tortilla is made and griddled to a perfect golden brown, it is laid flat on the counter and guisado is ladled in the middle (the tortilla is often slathered with refried beans as well). Either side of the tortilla is then folded over the top, creating what looks like a rolled up tortilla rather than a stuffed envelope.
Nate and I ordered an array of burritos, then watched the action around us from a perch by the window. Our order came up, and he went to fill his salsa bowl from the bar (I prefer this one without the extra sauce). After his first bite Nate, smiling with delight, said, “It’s like it isn’t even a burrito!” When I reminded him this is one of the styles closest to the burrito’s origins, he qualified his statement, expressing that it was unlike any burrito he’d ever eaten. He could finally understand how this seemingly simple task of selecting a favorite burrito among four was made incredibly difficult by the dish’s wide-ranging iterations.
A burrito from Delicious Mexican Eatery.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
Delicious burritos are comfort food at its finest; I’m certain this chile verde is what I’ll crave from here on out whenever I’m feeling low. The tortilla is soft, brown, golden and white on the outside, fresh off the grill. The little bundles are satisfying, but never leave you stuffed. You can eat two (or three or four) to have a meal, or eat one just because. This is the spiciest burrito in the finals; it leaves the taste buds intact, but provides enough heat to make you glad you ordered a house-made lemonade. The array of textures is superb: a slightly chewy tortilla, pulpy chiles, tomatoes and onions, small chunky potato pieces and tender beef morsels. It’s not much to look at after the logo-emblazoned wax paper has been removed, but this burrito doesn’t need smoke and mirrors to create magic.
Fully charmed, we headed back toward the airport and hopped on a plane headed west for the City of Angels.
Al & Bea’s Mexican Food
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
After an afternoon exploring the spectrum of Mexican culinary options in Los Angeles, Nate and I made our way toward Al &5Bea’s, just as the sun was beginning to fall behind the 5 and 10. East First Street was clean and quiet, but the small hut and patio were crowded with patrons. We placed our order and sat at a table near the window, listening as a steady stream of customers placed órdenes. Even with that small a sample size, it seemed clear the bean and cheese burrito with green sauce ($3.50) is el preferido.
Al & Bea’s draw in Round 1 placed it in the grupo de la muerte, up against two other Boyle Heights classics — La Azteca Tortilleria and Manuel’s El Tepeyac Café — as well as the award-winning breakfast burrito from Athenian III in Orange County. With a different seeding, all four restaurants could have easily advanced to Round 2. But Al & Bea’s bean and cheese stole the win with the perfection of each ingredient, particularly the refried beans.
Clockwise from top left: Manuel’s El Tepeyac Café, Al & Bea’s Mexican Food, Athenian III, La Azteca Tortilleria.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
In Round 2, it came up against another old-school burrito (the red machaca from Carolina’s Mexican Food in Phoenix) and a surprise corn tortilla-wrapped contender from Atlantic City (Pancho’s Mexican Taqueria), but Al & Bea’s breezed through to Round 3 with relative ease.
Clockwise from top left: Bell Street Burritos, Al & Bea’s Mexican Food, Pancho’s Mexican Taqueria, Carolina’s Mexican Food.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
And so I was back. The same man was at the prep counter. He pulled a tortilla from the stack, spooned in beans, sprinkled on cheese, flicked a spray of green chile sauce in the middle and wrapped it all up into a perfect little package. On a typical visit, the delicate yet powerful tortillas strongarm the stewy ingredients into a squat torpedo shape, holding them in until the last few bites, when some finger licking is to be expected.
(I’d say this isn’t a good place for a first date, but oddly I’ve seen a few couples get their start here; the gift of bringing Al & Bea’s into someone’s life for the first time trumps any stains or mess that would normally make for an awkward first encounter.)
On this occasion, a lingering turn of the wrist at green sauce stage left the collective innards thinner than usual, and the burrito was impossible to eat in its expected form. With beans and sauce dripping down my hand, I turned to watch an older gentlemen behind me who had cut his burrito down the middle and was forking out the liquidy insides. Although I had warned Nate about the proper eating technique of this burrito before our visit, he did not heed my advice, and set the burrito down when it was only half eaten. With more beans on his paper tray than inside the tortilla, El Padrino asked for his own fork.
While the tortilla was soft and powdery, the ingredients were just too thin to stay inside on this visit. It was a disappointing showing. Several dozen napkins later, Nate and I were once again headed to the airport, ready for a visit with San Pancho.
La Taqueria
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA
We headed for Mission Street at midday, when sunbeams stream through La Taqueria’s skylights, bathing patrons in heavenly light. We ordered a long list of burritos and hovered over other customers, ready to pounce when a seat finally opened up in the packed restaurant.
The bombardment of liquid and flavor from a La Taqueria burrito are enough to stop any woman in her tracks, even one who’d been eating burritos daily for two months straight. And so, it breezed past its Round 1 competition with a high score of 98 (though Rosa Maria’s in San Bernardino, California, put up a good fight).
Clockwise from top left: Dos Chinos, El Chato Taco Truck, Rosa Maria’s Drive-In, La Taqueria.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
It had a tougher go in Round 2, when it encountered another of my favorite burritos of the tournament, Taqueria y Tortilleria Ramirez in Lexington, Kentucky. Even with chunks of carnitas cut far too large, bringing La Taqueria’s second-round score down to 95, it advanced to the finals, winning by a single point.
Clockwise from top left: La Pasadita, Cabo Bob’s Burrito, Tortilleria y Taqueria Ramirez, La Taqueria.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
During the Burrito Selection Committee meeting in the spring, both celebrity chef David Chang and Mexican food expert Gustavo Arellano named La Taqueria as the favorite to win the whole tournament. This burrito’s construction sets it apart. Like many Mission Street burritos, it’s prepared assembly line-style; the sour cream is added liberally from a squirt bottle, guacamole comes by the spoonful from an enormous metal bowl, pico de gallo and all its juices are added at the end. But unlike at other taquerias, each ingredient keeps its juices, making this burrito saucy in form and personality (the absence of rice also makes it noteworthy among its neighbors).
After my first visit, I received emails from several kind readers who, having noted my preference for griddled burritos, alerted me that La Taqueria has a menu secreto. It includes burritos “dorados,” La Taqueria’s signature torpedo-like bundles thrown on the griddle until they’re brown and bubbly all the way around. For this final visit I decided to order two carnitas burritos, one super, one super dorado. My conclusion? No need to choose a favorite — always get one of each. Nate ordered a super chorizo dorado and a super carnitas.
Nate Silver enjoys a burrito at La Taqueria in San Francisco.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
I watched Nate take his first bite, and I swear he achieved nirvana before my eyes. I got to work eating myself, and we munched in silence (except when I asked to borrow his second burrito because I’d dived into both of mine before I remembered to photograph them) until we’d each finished a burrito. You see, data-loving Nate had dined at top-ranking El Farolito, but this was his first time at La Taqueria. “I don’t want to bias you,” he said, “but this is really, really good,” pointing to two baskets left with nothing but foil and wax paper.
We caught a redeye back to New York, just one more burrito to go.
Taqueria Tlaxcalli
BRONX, NEW YORK
The success of Taqueria Tlaxcalli’s burrito is impressive when you think of its origins: The restaurant is owned by a Mexico City native who was desperate for traditional Mexican food, and though he sees burritos as Mexican-American cuisine, he decided to put them on the menu. For his creations, he stuffs a tortilla with meat, rice, black beans and a few vegetables, and then tops the plated bundle with four glorious sauces in red, white, purple and green. Knife and fork required.
Round 1 saw Tlaxcalli up against two other New York City restaurants as well as a young Chicago locale. New York’s contenders were all surprisingly strong given the city’s long, burrito-less history (if we’re confining the conversation to good burritos). Both Mission Cantina and Tres Carnes serve thoughtful burritos that are the pinnacle of their menus. Tlaxcalli came out on top with beautifully cooked steak and the inspired combination of sauces that provided a range of flavors to an otherwise simple dish.
Clockwise from top left: L’Patron, Tres Carnes, Taqueria Tlaxcalli, Mission Cantina.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
In Round 2, Tlaxcalli squared off with a San Diego favorite (Lolita’s) and a personal favorite from Santa Fe (The Pantry). A poor showing from the other contenders and the depth and breadth of its chile, crema, spicy black bean and avocado sauces allowed Tlaxcalli to cruise through to the finals, part bracket buster, part beneficiary of the seeding process.
Clockwise from top left: Lolita’s Taco Shop, Taqueria Tlaxcalli, Breakfast Burritos Anonymous, The Pantry.
Anna Maria Barry-Jester
Nate and I arrived at 10 a.m. The restaurant’s Yelp page says it opens at that hour, but the workers were still mopping the floors when we arrived. We had invited a handful of people to join us in this far corner of the Bronx, so delaying the visit wasn’t an option, but with the grill still warming up, it was clear this wouldn’t be Tlaxcalli’s peak performance. Indeed, the meat was a little gristlier (perhaps the previous day’s leftovers) and there was a lot more rice than usual.
The experience was disappointing, but then, we hadn’t showed up at any of the other places while the grills were still cold. So I went back a couple of days later, to give Tlaxcalli a fair chance. The burrito was exactly what I’d eaten on the first two visits, a swirl of creamy sauces coating finely chopped pieces of carne asada and flavorful Mexican rice. This food is an East Coast godsend, but it isn’t in the same league with the other finalists.
And so, we have a winner. La Taqueria takes the title of America’s Best Burrito.
It’s not necessarily the burrito you’ll want to eat every day, and may not even be my personal favorite (I’ll leave you guessing on that), but it’s a technical marvel with a monumental first bite worthy of a national title.
CORRECTION (Sept. 10, 12:23 p.m.): An earlier version of this story incorrectly referred to the highway that passes near Al & Bea’s Mexican Food. It is the 5, and in that segment also the 10, not the 405.
Japanese dumpling chain Osaka Ohsho may have had humble beginnings in Osaka, but it now has more than 300 locations all over Asia. OO prides itself on mastering dumplings of all kinds, and it presumably does a reasonable job: It’s competing…
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is under pressure to resign for his handling of Ray Rice, the former Baltimore Ravens running back who knocked out his then-fiancee in a casino elevator in March.
Goodell came under renewed criticism this week after additional video of the casino incident was published by TMZ; it shows Janay Rice collapsing after the running back punched her. Ray Rice has since been released by the Ravens and suspended indefinitely by the NFL, but a number of reports have called into question Goodell’s claim that he had not seen the longer video at the time he decided on Rice’s initial two-game suspension.
Other reports imply that Goodell has the support of most of the league’s 32 franchises — in large part because of the NFL’s financial success. As Sports Illustrated’s Peter King wrote:
Goodell has so much goodwill in the bank in [the owners’] eyes that there’s no way—without definitive proof that the commissioner lied—they’d throw him, and his $44 million annual compensation, to the wolves. The goodwill includes a collective bargaining agreement with the players association through 2020 and lucrative TV contracts that pay each team about $150 million per year.
Indeed, the NFL is probably the most valuable sports league in the world. According to Forbes’s annual Business of Football valuations, its 32 franchises are worth a collective $45 billion. That’s nearly double that of Major League Baseball franchises, worth a collective $24 billion, and NBA franchises, worth $19 billion. (What about European soccer? The average NFL team is worth $1.4 billion dollars — more than all but four or five club teams in Europe.)
The NFL wasn’t always quite so dominant, especially relative to baseball. In 1991, when Financial World magazine issued valuations for the four major North American sports leagues (see Rodney Fort’s website for archived data), NFL franchises were worth an aggregate $6.5 billion (adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars), not much more than the $5.5 billion for MLB teams. But NFL franchises have appreciated at an annual rate of 8.8 percent since then, compared to baseball’s 6.7 percent.
The bulk of that growth, however, occurred under Goodell’s predecessor, Paul Tagliabue. Since Goodell took over as commissioner in 2006, NFL franchises have risen in value by 32 percent, net of inflation, according to Forbes. That’s the lowest of the North American leagues by some margin. NHL franchises have increased in value by 114 percent, MLB franchises by 82 percent and NBA franchises by 65 percent over the same period (and Forbes is probably undervaluing the NBA, given recent franchise sale prices).
Broken down in terms of annual growth rates: NFL franchise values grew at an annualized rate of 11.7 percent from 1991 to 2006 under Tagliabue and just 3.5 percent per year since 2006 under Goodell.
The Forbes estimates aren’t perfect. All NFL franchises but the Green Bay Packers are privately held, and the league has very low rates of franchise turnover, with many teams having remained in the hands of the same family for decades. But the prices of recent franchise sales, like those of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns, have closely matched the Forbes valuations.
The modest rate of franchise value growth under Goodell has come from a very high baseline — and perhaps some decline in the rate of growth was inevitable given how prodigiously they grew under Tagliabue. In absolute dollar terms — not percentages — NFL franchise values have risen by a collective $10.9 billion since 2006, compared with $11 billion for baseball, $7.5 billion for the NBA and $6.6 billion for the NHL. The NFL is still a hugely profitable business, and even poorly run franchises tend to make money because of the league’s aggressive revenue sharing and relatively favorable contractual agreements with players. According to Forbes, only the Detroit Lions lost money in 2013, and the league’s 32 franchises earned a collective $1.7 billion in operating income.
At the same time, the NFL did such a good job of expanding its reach and protecting its brand under Tagliabue and Pete Rozelle that even a mediocre commissioner could be in a position to look good. Compared to his predecessors and his counterparts in other leagues, Goodell’s value to the NFL’s bottom line hasn’t been quite so clear.
The Pyramid’s (Wide, Wide) Base (Levels 12 to 24)
