Tertiarymatt

The enormous amount of options available for modern data analysis is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, researchers have specialized tools for any number of complex questions. On the other hand, we’re also faced with a staggering number of equally-viable choices, many times without any clear-cut guidelines for deciding between them. For instance, I just popped open SPSS statistical software and counted 18 different ways to conduct post-hoc tests for a one-way ANOVA. Some choices are clearly inferior (e.g., the LSD test doesn’t adjust p-values for multiple comparisons) but it’s possible to defend the use of many of the available options. These ambiguous choice points are sometimes referred to as researcher degrees of freedom.

In theory, researcher degrees of freedom shouldn’t be a problem. More choice is better, right? The problem arises from two interconnected issues: (a) Ambiguity as to which statistical test is most appropriate and (b) an incentive system where scientists are rewarded with publications, grants, and career stability when their p-values fall below the revered p < .05 criterion. So, perhaps unsurprisingly, when faced with a host of ambiguous options for data analysis, most people settle on the one that achieves statistically significant results. Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn (2011) argue that this undisclosed flexibility in data analysis allows people to present almost any data as “significant,” and calls for 10 simple guidelines for reviewers and authors to disclose in every paper – which, if you haven’t read yet are worth checking out. In this post, I will discuss a few guidelines of my own for conducting data analysis in a way that strives to overcome our inherent tendency to be self-serving.

1. Make as many data analytic decisions as possible before looking at your data. Review the statistical literature and decide on which statistical test(s) will be best before looking at your collected data. Continue to use those tests until enough evidence emerges to change your mind. The important thing is that you make these decisions before looking at your data. Once you start playing with the actual data, your self-serving biases will start to kick in. Do not underestimate your ability for self-deception: Self-serving biases are powerful, pervasive, and apply to virtually everyone. Consider pre-registering your data analysis plan (perhaps using the Open Science Framework to keep yourself honest and to convince future reviewers that you aren’t exploiting researcher degrees of freedom.

2. When faced with a situation where there are too many equally viable choices, run a small number of the best choices, and report all of them. In this case, decide on 2-5 different tests ahead of time. Report the results of all choices, and make a tentative conclusion based if the majority of these tests agree. For instance, when determining model fit in structural equation modeling, there many different methods you might use. If you can’t figure out which method is best by reviewing the statistical literature – it’s not entirely clear, statisticians disagree about as often as any other group of scientists – then report the results of all tests, and make a conclusion if they all converge on the same solution. When they disagree, make a tentative conclusion based on the majority of tests that agree (e.g., 2 of 3 tests come to the same conclusion). For the record, I currently use CFI, TLI, RMSEA, and SRMR in my own work, and use these even if other fit indices provide more favorable results.

3. When deciding on a data analysis plan after you’ve seen the data, keep in mind that most researcher degrees of freedom have minimal impact on strong results. For any number of reasons, you might find yourself deciding on a data analysis plan after you’ve played around with the data for a while. At the end of the day, strong data will not be influenced much by researcher degrees of freedom. For instance, results should look much the same regardless of whether you exclude outliers, transform them, or leave them in the data when you have a study with high statistical power. Simmons et al. (2011) specifically recommend that results should be presented (a) with and without covariates, and (b) with and without specific data points excluded, if any were removed. Again, the general idea is that strong results will not change much when you alter researcher degrees of freedom. Thus, I again recommend analyzing the data in a few different ways and looking for convergence across all methods when you’re developing a data analysis plan after seeing the data. This sets the bar higher to try and combat your natural tendency to report just the one analysis that “works.” When minor data analytic choices drastically change the conclusions, this should be a warning sign that your solution is unstable and the results are probably not trustworthy. The number one reason why you have an unstable solution is probably because you have low statistical power. Since you hopefully had a strict data collection end date, the only viable alternative when results are unstable is to replicate the results in a second, more highly-powered study using the same data analytic approach.

At the end of the day, there is no “quick-fix” for the problem of self-serving biases during data analysis so long as the incentive system continues to reward novel, statistically significant results. However, by using the tips in this article (and elsewhere) researchers can focus on finding strong, replicable results by minimizing the natural human tendency to be self-serving.

References

Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011). False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science, 22, 1359-1366. doi:10.1177/0956797611417632

Thrown.

Got home for the holidays today

funnypageszine:

This comic was made for Cards Against Humanity's 12 Days of Holiday Bullshit by Dylan Meconis.

Man, this little one-off comic was fun to do! Be sure to go check out all the other amazing lil cartoons that my colleagues produced for the wee comic book hitting the mailboxes of countless Cards Against Humanity customers this week.

See the full-size image here!

I'm still shipping stuff daily if you need presents! Nothing says love like a Fucking Coffee mug.

We're obviously suckers for pocket knives around here. But what do you do once your pockets are full? Level up. Pocket these at your own risk. Prepare for an Iron Chef of one with beautifully practical Japanese tools for culinary traction. Midori Hamono and Tosa knives belong in the kitchen, and in the right hands they'll will win you an excellent dinner.

Midori Hamono knives set a stellar example for pragmatic tools made beautifully. Handmade in Japan, the thin blades have a professional grade VG-10 stainless core with 15 layers of laminated stainless Damascus cladding, and a tsuchime or hammer marked finish. The dappling of the hammer marks prevents materials from sticking to the side of the knife and the VG-10 is great because it means "gold" and "10." The long Chef's Knife is an ideal all-purpose worker, adept at precise and delicate cutting—from sashimi fillets to other delicate, um, meatwork. The Paring Knife, while smaller, is a heavy hitter for small fruits, cheese and decorative cutting, or baby's first Damascus steel.

The Tosa Nakiri is a traditional blunt vegetable knife. Ideal for fast, small chopping. Between the sharp blade and stout shape, the Nakiri gives good leverage for excellent prep work. The thin blades are handmade in Tosa, Japan. The double beveled edge and core is made from high carbon steel (hagane), forged to hammered iron (jigane) for tensile strength. The Tosa Santoku knife features the same blade stock with a shape ideal for careful slicing. Ideal for many many jobs around the kitchen, these Santoku knives are used for all manner of slicing and skinning, from filleting to peeling.

They're both easy to sharpen and well known for their durability and long lasting cutting edge. The light wood handles may darken with use but resist breakdown. The blue-black of the forged iron cladding also looks super-boss—perfect for all your stealthy daikon dicing. Make sure to clean and wipe the moisture off the blade after each use to prevent rust. Don't soak at length. And don't point, it's rude.

Check out these cool cutlery options and more, available now at Core77's Hand-Eye Supply. Order now for Xmas shipping within the US!

From the moment I heard it, I have been in love with this voice. 

General Motors has quietly been making strides in greening their operations. What's most encouraging is that GM isn't doing it for the publicity; they're doing it simply because technological advances in sustainability are increasingly making good business sense.

In 1999, GM began experimenting with turning landfill gas—those otherwise worthless fumes that do nothing but stink and fill the atmosphere—into energy. By using landfill gas to heat a portion of their paint shop in Orion, Michigan, they discovered they had reduced their energy costs by half per vehicle. In 2002, GM then started using this LFGTE (LandFill Gas to Energy) technology to power parts of their Fort Wayne, Indiana, assembly facility.

Presumably having worked out the kinks, now they're taking bigger steps. This month GM invested $24 million in LFGTE machinery. The Fort Wayne facility's LFGTE percentage will quadruple from 10% to 40%, and the Orion plant will draw a whopping 54% of its juice from the stuff. This will cut 89,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions per year, about the equivalent of what 18,500 cars put out. The total LFGTE yield between the two plants will be 14 megawatts; if they repeat this nine times with other facilities by 2020, they will hit their self-imposed goal of using 125 renewable-energy megawatts.

Here's a local news affiliate's overview of the project:

Making bent plywood forms is an involved business, even not accounting for the steaming. Industrial practitioners have expensive hydraulic presses, whereas shops making one-offs or limited runs have to construct both male and female purpose-built forms; and the more complicated the final shape, the crazier the clamping process gets.

British company Curvomatic seeks to make bentwood creation easier with its titular product. A series of identical metal extrusions are fitting together into a sort of snakelike fence, in most cases taking the place of the topmost form. The idea behind the multi-pronged solution is to provide even pressure, simplify clamping—in some cases band clamps can be used rather than bar clamps—and save material, for applications where the Curvomatic can supplant the second, concave form.

It also allows you to create curved shapes with undercuts, which would require at least three forms to achieve using conventional methods. Check out the video to see it in action:

Physiology, gravity, and fluid dynamics all come together in The Other Golden Rule from Science Friday. Learn how videos, data, equations, and fieldwork with creatures great and small helped researchers at Georgia Tech discover that most mammals take around the same amount of time to urinate.

In the archives: there’s more Science Friday and more videos about bodies.

Need a battery-powered, modular, humanoid robot with strong legs and an amazing array of built-in cameras to help set up habitation on Mars for pioneering astronauts? NASA’s got you covered. Meet Valkyrie.

"The space agency’’’s new Valkyrie — a 6 foot 2 inch tall (1.9 meters) robot with a glowing NASA logo on its chest — bears an uncanny resemblance to Marvel’s superhero Iron Man, but this space age automaton was built for work, not comic book heroics. A team of engineers at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, Tex., designed and built Valkyrie in just nine months, according to press reports."

NASA created Valkyrie for DARPA’s upcoming Robotics Challenge Trials on December 20-21, 2013, where it will be in competition with 17 teams from around the world including NASA JPL’s RoboSimian, Carnegie Mellon University-NREC’s CHIMP, and Japan’s SCHAFT.

There are always more robot videos in the archives.

via kqedscience.

From Amy Poehler’s Smart Girls YouTube series: meet firefighter Xochitl Hernandez, one of 57 female firefighters in Austin Fire Department. Hernandez explains why she loves her job, and shares some of the amazing equipment that she uses with her brigade to help people in need.

There’s more to check out at AmySmartGirls.com, and watch more excellent firefighter videos in the archives.

Minute Physics on Why The Full Moon is Better in Winter. Bonus: great visualizations explaining Earth’s relationship to our sun and moon throughout the year.

via jtotheizzoe.

A short video informing our followers and clients of the ‘re-cutting’ phase of the bespoke process.

Hello, old friend.

Taken (by futureshorts)

This is old, but remains a serious classic.

Red Robot needs help with his anger.

rondanchan:

Periscope Studio Artbook Kickstarter! Eight days left to get these made!

PLZ HALP

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/periscopestudio/periscope-studio-maiden-voyage

It is beautiful.

Markus Kayser - Solar Sinter Project (by Markus Kayser)

This is pretty wild. 

How have you been sharpening your pencils? Regardless of your answer, rest assured that you’re doing it wrong.

Lest there be any doubt that I’m geographically situated smack dab in the middle of former cartoonist’s David Rees’ target demographic, I almost didn’t click on the link to the pitch perfect send up above because I believed it was real.

Here in non-Caribbean, non-Southeast-Asian, non-Russian, non-Mexican Brooklyn—think Girls, the Jonathans Ames and Letham, brownstone-dwelling movie stars and the very latest in n’est plus ultra strollers—it’s entirely plausible that a humorless young artisan might take to the Internet to teach us regular schlubs How to Sharpen Pencils.

Just wait ’til he brings out his leather strop. (Misplaced yours? Look in your basement, or your grandfather’s tomb.)

Please note that though the video may be satirical, Rees makes actual money sharpening—and authenticating—customers’ Number Two pencils, using the same techniques demonstrated in the video. (Sorry, holiday shoppers, as per his website, he won’t be taking orders for his live pencil sharpening services until the New Year, but he does have a book out.)

Like you need any more excuse to whip out your knife, place it in your dominant hand, and start carving.

To quote a certain classic Broadway musical, you gotta have a gimmick.

Related Content:

“The Periodic Table Table” — All The Elements in Hand-Carved Wood

Watch The New America, a Stop Motion Animation Starring 800+ Laser Engraved Wood Blocks

Learn to Draw Butts with Just Five Simple Lines

Ayun Halliday can get behind New Ork City public school teachers’ insistence on the Ticonderoga brand. Follow her @AyunHallliday

David Rees Presents a Primer on the Artisanal Craft of Pencil Sharpening is a post from: Open Culture. You can follow Open Culture on Facebook, Twitter, Google Plus and by Email.

If it seems like there are a lot of shows on television, well, that’s because there are. Unfortunately, lesser known quality shows tend to get looked over for the buzz worthy AMC and HBO offerings. To steer you in the right direction, we’ve compiled 5 TV gems you should be watching, and for whatever reason, might not be.

1. Orphan Black 

Clones not your thing? They will be. After young con artist Sarah Manning (Tatiana Maslany) witnesses a woman who looks just like her jump in front a train, Sarah assumes her identity with the intention of stealing her money and skipping town. Sarah soon discovers that she and the dead woman are clones, and they aren’t the only ones. Oh, and all of the clones are portrayed by the same actress. The premise itself could have been a gimmicky disaster, but in Tatiana Maslany’s capable hands it is nothing short of brilliant.  The series is not only a compelling slice of science-fiction, but a story about real people navigating through unprecedented circumstances. The second season of Orphan Black is slated to premiere April 19 on BBC America.

2. Sherlock 

It’s not that this series is lacking viewership and/or a severely dedicated fan base (because it’s so not), it’s simply that everyone (and I mean everyone) should be watching this show. The critically acclaimed crime-drama starring Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes and Martin Freeman as John Watson, presents a modern day retelling of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock detective stories. This version might not have Lucy Liu, but it does offer exceptional story lines that sure keeps you on your toes. The game is afoot and the show’s rapid-fire pacing challenges you to play along. The real draw here, though, is the dynamic between the morally ambiguous, eccentric genius, Sherlock, and his moral compass, Watson. The tangible chemistry between the show’s stars is undeniable and provides a strong foundation for an overall terrifically crafted series. Sherlock returns to PBS Masterpiece on Jan. 19, but you can catch up on seasons 1 and 2 on Netflix.

3. Arrow

In recent years The CW has developed a reputation for packing their shows with a lot of pretty and not very much substance.  But don’t write off this show as another platform for displaying chiseled jaws and perfect abs just yet. Arrow, which is based on the DC Comics character, Green Arrow, centers on billionaire playboy Oliver Queen (Stephen Amell), who, after being stranded on a mysterious island for 5 years, returns with deadly archery skills and embarks on a Robin Hood style campaign to restore his city. While Amell does look good shirtless, The CW series proves to be much darker than it’s source material, and manages to tackle engaging issues such as social inequality and the morality of violence. Season 1 is available to stream on Netflix and the second season of Arrow is currently airing Wednesday nights at 8 on The CW.

4. Sleepy Hollow 

In this re-imagining of Washington Irving’s classic story, Ichabod Crane (Tom Mison) is a time-traveling revolutionary war soldier sent to modern-day Sleepy Hollow to defeat the Headless Horseman. A series of events allows Ichabod to team up with local police lieutenant Abbie Mills (Nicole Beharie), where they discover that there is an abundance of nasty creatures lurking around in television’s most interesting town since Sunnydale. The premise might sound ridiculous (well because it is) but it works. Hailed as one of the genuine hits of the 2013–14 broadcast TV season, Sleepy Hollow embraces its craziness. Now renewed for a second 13 episode season, it seems that the networks are learning that quality is more important than quantity. But, what really sets this show apart is its dedication to keeping a diverse cast, and in turn, offering something truly unique to viewers. You can catch Sleepy Hollow on Monday nights at 9 on Fox.

5. Top of the Lake 

Top of The Lake is everything The Killing should have been, but wasn’t. This slow-burning miniseries focuses on Detective Robin Griffin’s (Elisabeth Moss) search for a 12-year-old pregnant girl from secluded Laketop, New Zealand. The Sundance Channel series is admittedly thematically dark and borderline depressing, but it’s also well-written, beautifully shot, and even has moments of humor. Moss gives a heart-wrenching (and award worthy) performance as the inexperienced, yet tireless detective whose own world begins to unravel as she come closer to uncovering the truth. The 7 episode miniseries is available to stream on Netflix.

crisitunity:

By the way if anyone here is in advertising or marketing… kill yourself.

No, no, no it’s just a little thought. I’m just trying to plant seeds. Maybe one day, they’ll take root—I don’t know. You try, you do what you can.
Kill yourself.

Seriously though, if you are, do.

Aaah, no really, there’s no rationalization for what you do and you are Satan’s little helpers.
Okay—kill yourself—seriously.
You are the ruiner of all things good, seriously.
No this is not a joke, you’re going, “there’s going to be a joke coming,” there’s no fucking joke coming.
You are Satan’s spawn filling the world with bile and garbage.
You are fucked and you are fucking us.
Kill yourself.
It’s the only way to save your fucking soul, kill yourself.

Planting seeds.
I know all the marketing people are going, “he’s doing a joke…” there’s no joke here whatsoever.
Suck a tail-pipe, fucking hang yourself, borrow a gun from a Yank friend—I don’t care how you do it.
Rid the world of your evil fucking machinations. Machi… Whatever, you know what I mean.

I know what all the marketing people are thinking right now too, “Oh, you know what Bill’s doing, he’s going for that anti-marketing dollar. That’s a good market, he’s very smart.”

Oh man, I am not doing that. You fucking evil scumbags!

"Ooh, you know what Bill’s doing now, he’s going for the righteous indignation dollar. That’s a big dollar. A lot of people are feeling that indignation. We’ve done research—huge market. He’s doing a good thing."

Goddammit, I’m not doing that, you scumbags!
Quit putting a goddamn dollar sign on every fucking thing on this planet!

"Ooh, the anger dollar. Huge. Huge in times of recession. Giant market, Bill’s very bright to do that."

God, I’m just caught in a fucking web.

"Ooh the trapped dollar, big dollar, huge dollar. Good market—look at our research. We see that many people feel trapped. If we play to that and then separate them into the trapped dollar…"

How do you live like that? And I bet you sleep like fucking babies at night, don’t you?

Still relevant.

How does the space that you’re making music in change the sound of the music? French drummer Julien Audigier, Audio Zero, and Wikidrummers put this video together to demonstrate the “natural echoes and decay patterns” of drums in different environments. No artificial reverb added.

In the archives: more drums and more sounds.

via The Awesomer.

Travel back to 1965 in Run, Run, a short autumn-filled film by Jim Henson in which his daughters Lisa and Cheryl run freely through the woods near their home in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Related watching: Jim Henson on Making Muppets 1969 and Visual Thinking (1959), plus more play.

via Mental Floss.

This is how a football is stitched and laced by hand, as demonstrated in 2011 by LemonBall and Leather Head Sports founder Paul Cunningham, courtesy of director Pascal Perich and Etsy. Cunningham has been selling handmade baseballs, footballs, medicine balls, rugby balls, and more online since 2007.

In the archives: more sports, more handmade, and more Etsy.tv profiles.

The mechanical version of a glass harp, called a glass armonica, was invented by none other than Benjamin Franklin in 1761. Also, a new word for us: hydrodaktulopsychicharmonica — ”harmonica to produce music for the soul by fingers dipped in water,” (hydro- for “water,” daktul (daktyl) for “finger,” psych- for “soul”). One can be found at the Musée de la Musique in Paris.

There are more glass harps playing in the archives.

Here’s a perception-bending video from 2012 by Rube Goldberg machine specialists 2D House: Isaac Newton vs. Rube Goldberg. How do you think they do it?

There are always more Rube Goldberg machines in the archives.

With its exceptional hearing, the red fox can detect when a small animal is scurrying around up to 3 feet under the snow, and their high jump to surprise and catch that animal — called “mousing” — is pretty spectacular. But even more spectacular is what we can’t see: the possible influence of magnetic alignment.

Jaroslav Červený and a large research team observed almost 600 mousing jumps by 84 foxes, and based on the data, they proposed that “…mousing red foxes may use the magnetic field as a ‘range finder’ or targeting system to measure distance to its prey…” From Ed Yong in 2011:

If they pounced to the north-east, they killed on 73% of their attacks; if they jumped in the opposite direction, they success rate stayed at 60%. In all other directions, only 18% of their pounces were successful… 

Many animals have magnetoreception capabilities including birds, bats, mice, mole rats, fruit flies, honeybees, turtles, lobsters, sharks and stingrays.

If Červený is correct, then the red fox is unique in many ways. It would be the first animal known to use a magnetic sense to hunt, and the first to use magnetic fields to estimate distance rather than direction or position.

File under: magnetic field. Related jumping: pronking springboks.

Visit Ambika Conroy’s angora rabbit “Friendly Fur Farm” and the New York Wolf Conservation Center with Inhabitat's Jill Fehrenbacher and her 5 year old son Petey.

In the archives: more amazing angora rabbits.