Cowboy Who?

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned from over a decade of writing a workplace advice column, it’s that people will do anything to avoid having an awkward conversation with their colleagues. Sometimes that means that they don’t bring up important topics at all, instead just letting problems go unaddressed while their frustration festers. Other times, it means they hint and sugarcoat rather than speaking directly. And in other cases … they decide to leave notes.

At Slate today, I wrote about the irritated — often outraged — notes littering offices everywhere … as well as the inverse relationship that appears to exist between the level of frustration emanating off the page and their effectiveness. You can read it here.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2023 14:58:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2023 15:23:26 GMT

One look at the satellite image over the Atlantic this morning, and it’s sensible to ask what month it is currently. Even when one factors in the idea that we’ve been able to name more small storms in recent years, this is a bit ridiculous.

Thankfully, both systems of note in the Atlantic will probably have relatively short shelf-lives, but folks in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of these systems.

One-sentence summary

Two disturbances in the Atlantic, Invest 92L and Invest 93L have been given 100 percent and 40 percent chances (respectively) of developing this week and could become depressions or named storms in the coming days.

Happening now: Investment prospectus

Two invests means two systems to discuss, so let’s take a look at their futures.

Invest 92L

Looking at Invest 92L this morning closer in on satellite, it’s pretty clear that this is almost ready to go.

After struggling for a couple days, the thunderstorms seem to have consolidated and there is a noticeable “spin” to the disturbance. This is likely going to become a depression not long after we publish this post.

Over the next couple days, the question becomes how much better organized 92L gets. Let’s look first at atmospheric moisture tomorrow evening.

Both systems are highlighted above, but looking at 92L specifically, it looks good into Tuesday evening, with ample moisture and dry air off to the north and west and far enough away for now to prevent problems for development.

What about wind shear?

I don’t think that shear will be prohibitive to 92L, but it may keep it from intensifying as much as some models have been saying. By tomorrow evening, it’s dealing with a fair bit of shear “in the neighborhood” but perhaps not enough to keep it from becoming a tropical storm.

So where will this system go? Obviously, that’s the $10,000 question. We have enough clues in the data to make a decent call of at least what to watch and when to watch it for planning purposes in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. If we use the GFS ensemble as a guide, we can see that 92L’s intensity is likely to “peak” in about 72 to 96 hours, or on Wednesday/Thursday. When you run 30+ different versions of the model to generate the ensemble, you get the map below.

From this point, the GFS ensemble at least takes stronger outcomes more north into the open Atlantic while weaker ones (with 1 or 2 exceptions) track into the Caribbean. It’s notable that all the European ensemble members (not shown) keep 92L weaker and track it into the Caribbean. But I prefer using the GFS ensemble as a guide, as it opens up a wider array of options for us to see right now.

Beyond day 3 or 4, it seems likely that whatever 92L becomes is going to run into a good bit of northerly shear and some broader dry air that could lead to it becoming less organized. This is why we believe that if it makes it to the islands or Caribbean, it will likely do so as a tropical storm and rain producer, certainly not without hazards but something a little less extreme for late June. But we’ll have a good idea by midweek of what this does and who it impacts.

If we look at the European ensemble mean for rainfall over the next 7 days, we can see a corridor of locally heavy rain that moves into the Lesser Antilles, with Guadeloupe through St. Lucia being in the heaviest rain. Depending on intensity and exact track, that “bullseye” could shift north or south a bit. For now, the ensemble mean prints out 1 to 4 inches of rain, but there could be some locations that see more and some flooding concerns, again depending on track and intensity, a picture that should become clearer later this week.

Invest 93L

From the maps above, it’s clear that Invest 93L is going to be in a slightly more intriguing environment for development. Much like 92L, how well organized this gets will lead to some track outcome, with a better organized disturbance likely turning northwest before the Caribbean and a less organized one likely following 92L to the west and into the islands. I want to see more of how 92L behaves before worrying much about 93L, and besides 92L is the more immediate system to watch for the islands.

The medium range (days 6-10): More to come?

It seems funny that for the last 2 weeks the GFS operational model has been all about the western Caribbean and yet it’s the Atlantic that’s off to the races. There are some signs in the models that a third disturbance emerging off Africa may be something that could develop over the weekend or next week. Much like 92L and 93L, it seems unlikely it will become a big deal but this meteorologist can’t recall a busier late June in the deep Atlantic in recent memory, if ever. Of course, record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic likely mean record-type outcomes, despite El Niño.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Calmer?

As of right now, a cursory glance at operational models and ensembles seems to indicate that things may begin to quiet down some heading into July. We’ll see.

Follow our social media for any updates should 92L develop today.

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Otherwise, we’ll be back with you on Tuesday morning.

The attacks against Hotez began after he criticized a podcast hosted by Joe Rogan and featuring Democratic presidential candidate and anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Good morning. Today is Juneteenth, a relatively new federal holiday that has its origins in Texas. Juneteenth is celebrated on the anniversary of Major General Gordon Granger arriving in Galveston and proclaiming freedom for enslaved people in Texas on June 19, 1865. This came two and a half years after the Emancipation Proclamation was issued.

Unfortunately, we will not have freedom from extreme heat today. Some very moderate relief will arrive later this week, as well as a slight chance for our first showers and thunderstorms in awhile. But it will probably be fleeting.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

For the first two or three days this week we are going to see conditions very much like what the region experienced over the weekend. That is to say, high temperatures of about 100 to the low-100 degrees with high humidity, leading to an extremely elevated heat index. An excessive heat warning is in effect for now through Tuesday, and we can probably expect that to continue through Wednesday. Please continue to take heat safety precautions when outdoors during the middle of the day.

Thursday and Friday

Sometime on Wednesday, the high pressure system that has dominated our weather for several days will begin retreating slightly to the west, allowing for a cloudier and slightly cooler period. The relief will be modest, with high temperatures likely in the mid- to upper-90s, but it should bring down the dangerous heat index for a few days. Some weak disturbances will also drive rain chances into the area for a couple of days. Do not expect much—most areas probably have a 10 to 30 percent chance of rain—but this is better than what we’ve seen for a week now.

Next weekend and beyond

The medium-term looks pretty hot, I’m afraid. At this point the most likely scenario is that the high pressure system starts to rebuild over Texas, including the Houston metro area. So we probably will see the return of triple digit temperatures, sultry humidity, and heat warnings. I wish it were otherwise.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are unusually frisky for this time of year, and we can probably expect the formation of Tropical Storm Bret within the next day or two. The storm, and an additional wave behind it, likely are of no consequence to Texas or the Gulf of Mexico. For full coverage of all things tropics, be sure and check out our new Atlantic hurricanes website, The Eyewall.

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Good afternoon. We hope everyone is having a great Father’s Day—here in Houston I am enjoying some time with the family but this face-melting heat and humidity is something else. The situation is little different out across the Atlantic tropics, where sea surface temperatures are at or near record levels for this time of year. And lo and behold, the warm tropics are producing uncharacteristically robust activity for mid-June. Hence this post on a holiday weekend.

An area of interest, known for now as Invest 92L, has continued to show signs of organization today as thunderstorm activity increases and it passes through an area of relatively low wind shear. As a result, the National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next two days. In all likelihood, we’re looking at Tropical Storm Bret by early next week. In other words, I’d bet on Bret. Sorry for the dad joke, but today is Father’s Day you know.

This tropical system should continue to have a reasonably favorable environment for strengthening into the middle part of next week as it continues to track westward across the tropical Atlantic, toward the Windward Islands. After that? Well, if the storm continues trucking westward it will eventually face more hostile conditions. This means that a tropical storm could move into the Eastern Caribbean Sea by Thursday or so, but then likely weaken. The other scenario is that the storm begins to turn more northerly before entering the Caribbean Sea. Along this path the tropical system would find more favorable conditions, but should spin harmlessly out in the ocean.

The bottom line is that if you’re in (or traveling to) the Windward or Leeward Islands—basically from the Virgin Islands all the way south to Barbados—it’s worth keeping an eye on this system. I don’t think anything too troublesome is coming, but the Atlantic is very warm so it’s worth monitoring. As for other parts of the Atlantic basin, including the United States, this probably is not anything more than a curiosity. We’ll have bigger fish to fry later this season, no doubt.

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This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

It’s four answers to four questions. Here we go…

1. HR said a coworker’s religion “didn’t count”

I work in a fairly diverse office of a smattering of beliefs and subcultures. “Jen” belongs to a certain church, big enough in size to be recognizable and certainly recognizable as an official religion. Jen is hardly the proselyting sort and doesn’t bring up her faith in any obvious manner, but people are humans and you learn stuff about people you spend time with. Jen is professional, kind, and no problem at all to work with.

A few others in the office started becoming increasingly critical and mocking of Jen’s church to the point that it was exasperating and uncomfortable to be around. A couple of coworkers and I made reasonable efforts to ask it to stop, but eventually took it to HR. We don’t know if Jen ever said anything on her own behalf, but went for our own sake.

However, the HR manager said that Jen’s specific church doesn’t count because there are enough people in the office that have a negative opinion with it and that people are allowed those opinions. That I understand, but I had never heard that what I thought was a protected right could be “outvoted” in the workplace.

This happened a day ago so I have not taken it up with higher management. Is there some loophole in the law I’m oblivious to? My temptation is to ask for this policy in writing.

No, there’s no loophole in the law where employees get to vote on what religious harassment is allowed at work. Your employer is obligated by law to put a stop to any harassment based on religion, period. That’s true no matter how small the religion is and no matter how many people in the office might dislike that religion. As long as your office has 15 or more employees (that’s the threshold to be covered by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964), anyone with sincerely held religious beliefs is legally required to be protected from harassment and discrimination on the basis of those beliefs.

Is your HR person by chance someone with no actual HR training? Did she get assigned to handle HR on top of other, more primary duties, and she has no idea what she’s actually doing? This is such a basic HR concept that there’s no other way I can explain her response … and if she’s getting this one wrong, your company is in real trouble.

You should indeed take it up with someone above the HR rep, and you should frame it as, “This is directly in violation of federal law and we’re opening ourselves to a lot of legal liability by proceeding this way.”

2. My employer wants me to lie about why I’m leaving

I am a teacher at a small private school, where I’ve been for about a decade, and am very well-liked by my students and parents, past and present. After a very difficult school year, the administration decided not to renew my contract — effectively firing me.

The school recently announced that I was leaving, and who my successor would be. Many parents reached out to me, expressing their surprise, how missed I would be, etc. and asking me why I was leaving — great new opportunity? Moving? In my replies, I thanked them for their kind words and told them my contract hadn’t been renewed.

Some parents have been very upset about this, and have been telling the same to the administration. The administration, in turn, is angry at me. They’re saying that I am trying to cause reputational damage to the school, and threatened I wouldn’t be allowed to finish the school year if I continued telling parents the truth. I genuinely care about the school (and am desperate to see out the year), so I told them I would give a banal answer from now on and attempt to smooth things over with families who already know.

However, have I actually done anything wrong? I’m being made to feel I did something unspeakably bad; from my perspective, if parents are that upset about the truth, then that’s the school’s problem, not mine. So, have I done anything wrong?

No, you haven’t done anything wrong. If the school thinks there’s something shameful about the truth, that’s on them, not on you. They should be prepared to stand by their decision and, if they feel it was the right one, should be able to respond to parents who are upset about it.

What exactly do they want you to say to parents who ask why you’re leaving? Are they hoping you’ll lie? Be vague to the point that it’s basically a lie? Obviously they’d have standing to be upset if you were trash-talking them (“yeah, it’s awful; the management here sucks”) but if you’re simply saying “my contract wasn’t renewed so I’ll be moving on” … that’s the reality of it. If they’re asking you to protect them from parents knowing that they chose not to re-employ you, that’s BS.

3. Applying for an unposted position when I already applied for another job with the same company

I applied for a job about three weeks ago. It is still live on the employer’s website. However, last week, an acquaintance shared a job at the same employer with many of the duties listed in the original posting with a different job title. This new job description is much more closely aligned to what I am looking for, but it’s not posted anywhere yet. Should I reach out to the employer to ask if I should apply for the unposted position? What might that email look like?

Rather than asking and hoping they’ll respond before applications close (since they may not), just go ahead and apply for the second position. In your cover letter, include a mention that you also applied for the X position and if this one is open, you’d like to be considered for it too.

4. “I must have your password”

Attached is a memo that our office dug out of a bunch of old junk that we found while preparing to move to another building. I think it is a shining example of authoritarian, blustering madness and is a worthy companion to the I WILL CONFRONT YOU BY WEDNESDAY letter.

We are a newspaper office and this guy was a former publisher. He ended up being fired for, as my boss says, “having mood problems and taking stuff to help.”

Here is the memo verbatim, misspellings and all:

Attention all employees using company equipment!

I am tired of trying to get onto computers for one reason or another and not being able to as there are passwords to log into the computer and I don’t have the proper password!! The computers are property of XXX Company. I am not concerned with the fact that you may be checking Facebook or if you are using it to chat with friends (as long as you are getting your work done and done in a timely manner). I AM CONCERNED with the fact that should something happen to you and we need BUSINESS information from your computer I MUST have access to it.

From this moment on:

If you have a password set on your computer to log into you MUST provide it to me immediately. IF you change your password then you must immediately let me know what it is for the file kept in my office in locked file.

Any employee not responding to or any employee that is found to have a password other than what I know it to be as the password will be immediately written up for insubordination. Company policy is that after 2 write-ups and upon the 3rd violation is grounds for immediate termination.

I will randomly be checking every ones machine to check this policy!

This must be shared. Thank you.

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