Cowboy Who?

We are closer than ever to finding aliens according to astrophysicist Adam Frank. He isn’t alone in his optimism. Over the last two decades, the tools used to search for extraterrestrials have been advancing mightily. Where we were once only monitoring with radio telescopes, we are now actively looking for bio and technosignatures on exoplanets. Find out why scientists think new technology may be a game changer in the hunt for life off Earth.

Guest:

Adam Frank – Astrophysicist and author of a new book “The Little Book of Aliens”

Featuring music by Dewey Dellay and Jun Miyake

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In brief: As July begins we take a look back at June’s rain and temperatures, and look ahead to a hot week to start the month. Rain chances will be on the low side this week, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms will nonetheless be possible. Hurricane Beryl should remain in the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, so it’s unlikely to affect our area.

A brief June review

The month of June was wetter and warmer than normal. The city of Houston, officially, recorded 7.8 inches of rainfall, which is nearly 2 inches more than the average monthly rainfall for June. As a result of a wet spring, the entire eastern half of Texas, including all of the Houston metro area, is entirely out of drought conditions. It is a fine posture to be in headed into the hottest months of the year.

In terms of temperature, the city of Houston recorded an average of 84.6 degrees, which is 1.6 degrees above the normal temperature recorded over the last three decades. The average high, of 93.1 degrees, was not far off normal. However, our nighttime temperature averaged 76.1 degrees, which is well above the normal June temperature of 73.7 degrees. This is consistent with a warmer Gulf of Mexico and the background pattern of climate change.

Monday

If you’ve been enjoying our hot and sunny weather, you’re in luck. This pattern should persist for much of this week. In truth, there’s not a whole lot to forecast when high pressure is more or less in control of our weather pattern. High temperatures today will reach the upper 90s, with plenty of sunshine and humidity. Winds will be light, generally from the south, at 5 mph or so.

There is a bit of intrigue when it comes to the possibility of some rain showers late this afternoon as a weak boundary pushes into the area. This may generate some isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of Houston, perhaps near downtown. Overall rain chances today are probably on the order of 10 to 20 percent for most locations. Lows tonight will be warm, perhaps dropping only to about 80 degrees.

Tuesday

A day similar to Monday, with the possible exception of highs being a degree or two cooler. The setup for isolated showers is similar.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The overall pattern remains the same, although with high pressure slightly relinquishing its grip we could see highs only in the mid-90s rather than the upper-90s. Ongoing rain chances are similar in terms of the afternoons and early evenings possibly seeing a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. If you’re wondering about July Fourth fireworks, everything looks fine at this point.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point it appears that high pressure may back off still a bit further this weekend. If so, that may increase daily rain chances a bit, to perhaps 30 percent. It may also bring daytime highs down into the low- to mid-90s range, so more in line with temperatures more typical for early July. We’ll see.

Tropics

We’re continuing to closely watch the evolution of Hurricane Beryl, but at this time there are no indications that it will move into the central Gulf of Mexico and threaten the upper Texas coast. The most likely scenario at this time is, rather, that it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. After that time the odds that it moves north toward Texas are increasingly low. So, for the greater Houston area, nothing much to worry about at this time.

Also of note, Tropical Storm Chris formed last night in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, but it is already moving into Mexico near Tampico, and is not a concern for the United States. (Heavy rainfall, however, is likely in central Mexico). For full coverage of tropical activity, be sure and check out The Eyewall.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 011255
TCUAT2
 
Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
900 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...900 AM POSITION UPDATE...
 
Beryl is nearing the Windward Islands and expected to make landfall 
within the next few hours.

A weather station in Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of 
44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (95 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM AST (1400 UTC).
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 60.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF  CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
 
 

3 PM CT Monday Update

Beryl made a quick landfall this morning on the island of Carriacou just north of Grenada as a category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Beryl remains a beast of a storm, albeit relatively compact in the Caribbean. It will mostly avoid land now for a bit.

Beryl will track mostly west northwest the next couple days, and it will likely encounter a good deal of wind shear after tomorrow morning, allowing it to begin weakening as it moves toward Jamaica. We continue to believe it will pass south of Jamaica. There remains a good deal of uncertainty beyond the end of the week in terms of where Beryl goes and whether or not it can track northwest enough to get into the Gulf. That remains a low likelihood scenario, and most tropical models agree that Beryl will be disheveled enough to be bullied by high pressure over the Southeast and Gulf to be forced toward Mexico or extremely far south Texas. We’ll continue watching trends, but Beryl’s forecast for the weekend is not much clearer this afternoon than it was this morning.

The morning post follows:

Headlines

• Beryl will make a direct hit across the Windward Islands today, very near Grenada or the Grenadines with impacts beyond there.
• Beryl is reintensifying after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle overnight.
• Beryl will track west northwest across the Caribbean, eventually encountering some wind shear that should weaken it a good bit before it passes south of Jamaica.
• Uncertainty remains high on the ultimate track of Beryl beyond the Caribbean, but modeling has made a fairly southward shift since yesterday, keeping most impacts near Mexico. It still bears close watching.
• TD 3 became Chris overnight and is now inland with heavy rain over Mexico, while Invest 96L (unlike Beryl) will take a slow and steady approach to organization over the course of this week.

Hurricane Beryl: 130 mph, moving west northwest at 20 mph

Hurricane Beryl has just undergone what we call an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). You can read about the nuts and bolts of it here, but in a nutshell, this is where a hurricane basically takes a moment to reorganize itself and expand in size. As a result, Beryl’s wind field has increased with hurricane-force winds now out about 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out 125 miles from the center. Beryl remains relatively compact, but it has grown somewhat.

Unfortunately, since Beryl is wrapping up an ERC, this means it will have an opportunity now to restrengthen. Winds were down to 120 mph as of early this morning from its peak around 130 mph yesterday, but we may see those increase once more. (Editor’s note: They have increased to 130 mph again as of the 8 AM AST advisory)

Whatever the specifics are, it’s pretty clear that a major hurricane is going to directly impact the Windward Islands today, with the worst impacts coming near Grenada and the Grenadines, south of St. Vincent.

Total rainfall from Beryl will be heavy, but because it is booking it west, the rain totals will generally be 10 inches or less. Surge and wind will be major problems with rainfall a secondary hazard in this case.

Once through the Windward Islands, the next land mass to watch for potential impacts will be Jamaica. While Beryl is likely to pass south of the island Wednesday night or Thursday, avoiding a direct hit, it will be close enough to deliver wind, rain, and surge to Jamaica, and it’s just a question of how much. Notably, Beryl is expected to weaken after tomorrow morning. It will begin to encounter a good bit of wind shear in the central and western Caribbean. The official forecast keeps Beryl a category 2 storm all the way to the Yucatan, but model guidance is actually a little more aggressive in weakening Beryl to perhaps even a tropical storm. While no one should be sleeping on Beryl, this is very likely to be a much different storm in 2 days than it is right now.

For those of you with plans in Jamaica or the Caymans or the Yucatan and Belize, we can’t tell you what to do. Just continue to monitor Beryl’s progress and reach out to your hotel or resort for more guidance.

After day 3, the weather pattern will support Beryl continuing west around the base of high pressure centered over the Southeast or northern Gulf of Mexico.

The question will be how long this high stays in tact. The high is expected to weaken by Friday or Saturday. At that point, Beryl should be near or over the Yucatan. The uncertainty then lies in whether Beryl has enough left to it after encountering shear and land to determine if it continues west northwest or shifts more northwest. There is actually decent tropical model agreement that it will continue west northwest, which is close to the official forecast as shown above. A handful of other models suggest it will turn northwesterly toward northern Mexico or Texas.

From the track density plot above, you can see that Beryl is expected with high confidence to pass just south of Jamaica and the Caymans before approaching the Yucatan or Belize. Confidence diminishes from there with some models dissipating Beryl and others continuing it across the Bay of Campeche toward Mexico or far south Texas. Again, keep in mind that this will be a much different storm then than it is today, and it will probably need some time to organize itself after reaching land in the Yucatan. Its forward speed is such that it will likely have a limited amount of time to get itself back together as it approaches the coast. Folks in Mexico and Texas should continue to watch Beryl’s progress, but at this point, it’s too soon to get more specific than that.

Stay tuned for more on this, but in the meantime, our thoughts are with the Windward Islands today.

The rest of the crew

Tropical Depression 3 became Tropical Storm Chris overnight and is now inland and once more a depression. It is a heavy rainmaker for Mexico.

Behind Beryl, we continue to track Invest 96L. Models support a slow, gradual intensification of 96L as it essentially follows Beryl’s wake. Slightly cooler water will likely aid in that slower pace of growth. The National Hurricane Center is holding around a 60 percent chance of development with 96L, but it’s far too soon to speculate on exactly where it goes, short of it will follow close to Beryl’s track. What we’re more confident in is that slower pace of intensification.

Some good news: Once 96L exits the picture, we are expecting the Atlantic to settle down into a bit of a July lull (or so we hope). But model guidance keeps any real hint of anything absent in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf beyond 96L right now. Fingers crossed so we can catch our breath before August.

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

It’s five answers to five questions. Here we go…

1. Do my full-time coworkers think I’m a lady of leisure because I work part-time?

I work part-time at an elite private high school that my oldest child attends. How our very middle-class family ended up with a kid at this school is a long story, but please know it was a necessary last resort for my kid’s mental health.

Very luckily, just before school started, a part-time receptionist position opened up at the school and I practically ran to apply, as it comes with a partial tuition remission. I was nervous about this school. I thought it might be stuffy and elitist. I was so happy to discover this to not be true at all! My kid is happy at the school and I love working there! It’s only two days a week.

At work, I make sure I go above and beyond to be a top notch receptionist. I recently heard feedback from a coworker that my name came up in a meeting of the school administration about what a great hire I was and what an asset I’ve become to the front office.

The only problem is that there are a lot of affluent parents and I think some of my coworkers assume I am one of them. Every Tuesday, before I leave for the week, several people wave to me and say, “Enjoy your LONNNNNNNNG weekend!” or “Gosh, I wish it was MY Friday too.” At first I just laughed it off, but it’s been almost a year, and it’s every week. It’s getting old.

Do they think I’m this woman of leisure? If it matters, my clothes are from Old Navy and Target and my car is a not-fancy station wagon that’s older than my kid! On the days I’m not here, I’m taking care of a child with intensive medical needs, tutoring my oldest so she can keep up at school, cooking, cleaning, driving (my husband travels and is gone the majority of each week) and at night after my kids are in bed, I do freelance work. I average about 4-5 hours of sleep a night. I work HARD. To me, my weekend is the two days I’m at the school! They are the quietest, most relaxing days I have. I get to sit down!

I know I’m taking it too personally, right? Who cares what these people think? I guess I just don’t get why people would say something like that to someone they don’t really know? How about “Have a good week!” and leave it at that? After a year, would you snap and say something?

I think you’re reading too much into it! Maybe they think you’re a lady of leisure, or maybe they don’t. But either way, their comments almost certainly aren’t meant to be pointed barbs about the luxurious lifestyle they imagine you have. The comments sound more akin to hackneyed office commentary like “is it Friday yet?” or “another day in paradise!” — the cliche phrases that get thrown around every office that are really just a way of saying “ugh, work, amirite.”

But if it really bothers you, one option is to share more about your life with your colleagues — since if they get to know you better, they might still make the comments but you’ll probably be less likely to read an “enjoy your riches” subtext into them. But you could also just laugh and say, “Yeah, right. It’s way more relaxing here than at home.” (Although writing that last one out, I’m second-guessing it; you don’t want to sound like you’re minimizing their own jobs compared to your home responsibilities, particularly in a cultural context where moms who work often feel judged by moms who don’t and vice versa.)

2. Jobs with no negotiation and a huge salary range

I recently came across a job listing that stated they would be using a salary algorithm to determine compensation and would not be allowing any negotiation. I found this a little odd, especially since the range given for the position was quite large ($145,000-$225,000). The organization gives signs of valuing equity and inclusion (generous PTO and six months paid parental leave, explicit professional development benefits outlined in the job posting), so it feels like this is their attempt to ensure all applicants get treated fairly in determining compensation. Am I right that this is a little off-base, especially since they weren’t clear what variables are fed to the algorithm? Or is this the way all jobs should be looking to make salary negotiations more fair?

I have no problem with not allowing negotiation if they’re clear up-front about what a job pays and the initial posting is both accurate and thorough; people can then decide whether or not they’re interested in applying.

But a range this big? Whether negotiation is possible or not, they need to explain what skills and experience would get you placed where in that range (and the larger the range, the more important that is). Clearly they know because they’ve programmed their algorithm with it. Telling people, “Our offer will be take-it-or-leave-it and, by the way it could fall anywhere within an $80,000 spread” is BS — and a good way to make a lot of candidates question whether they want to invest time in interviewing. (If they tell you where you would fall in their range during the first phone screen, I’m less annoyed, but it’s still not good practice.)

3. Covid precautions at a client dinner

I am a high-performing WFH employee at a very small company. I take more Covid precautions in my daily life than anyone else at this company (I technically am high-risk but with a very common condition). When the team gets together, I wear a mask, and the rest of the team has seen this but never commented. In a few weeks, a client is coming to town and a few members of my team are taking them out to dinner. Client management like this isn’t in the scope of my work, but I anticipate being included in this invite.

I do not want to go and want to explain that any precautions I would take at this dinner (mask when not eating, portable air purifier) would look “weird” and run counter to the dinner’s goal of soothing and retaining clients. Is there a way for me to communicate this clearly without making it a “big deal” in such a small company? (We do not have a formal HR department.) I have a yearly review scheduled for the same week and don’t want this to occupy mindshare.

“Because I’m high-risk for Covid, I’d have to mask and bring a portable air purifier. From a client relations perspective, my sense is it would be better for me to sit this one out so that my precautions aren’t the focus.”

Also, if you’d feel safer not going even if they want you to come despite this warning, then I’d skip that and just say that because you’re high-risk, you’re avoiding indoor dining with large groups (if that’s true).

4. My boss told me not leave documents out — is her reason correct?

My boss has me filing work order documents, I left two folders on my desk to work on the next day. When I came in the next morning, she told me that I needed to make sure to put the folders away always, and not keep them on my desk because if we got randomly audited she would get in trouble.

I don’t know if this is true or she used it as an excuse to have me keep the files in the drawers. I would just like to know if we would get in trouble if we were suddenly randomly audited and work order files were found outside of the cabinet.

Sure, depending on the contents of the documents and if they’re confidential, it’s possible that an audit could take issue with them being left in the open. It’s also possible that your boss just doesn’t like documents left out and is borrowing the authority of the auditor rather than owning her preference, who knows.

More to the point, though, it doesn’t really matter! If your boss asks you to store documents a certain way, you should store them that way. Unless your boss is asking something unreasonable or unrealistic, you generally need to do your job the way she asks you to. (That doesn’t mean there’s no room for pushback if you have a reason for wanting to do it differently. But ultimately it’s her call.)

5. Is it legal not to pay someone if HR’s software fails?

A weird situation, and for legal context all of this is happening at a university in Massachusetts. I’m just so angry, and I can’t tell if I have a right to be angry or if HR is correct.

We hired a student in May, but HR’s software made a mistake and only hired her for September. The student, bless her heart, didn’t tell us about this until three pay periods had passed, and we, of course, emailed HR to ask them to fix this. They, in their “wisdom,” hired her and put her on the normal pay period as she had just missed the cutoff, so she will now have not been paid for two months.

I have been emailing back and forth with HR asking them to pay her sooner than the normal payroll, or make her whole beyond what she is owed, but they keep insisting that because she was only hired at the official time there is no reason to. I say, however, that if their software makes a mistake that does not mean that she was not hired, and she is owed her money as soon as possible and with restitution.

Honestly, I am going to continue to suggest to the student that she work with her union to file a wage complaint, but am I crazy? Does a software mistake on HR’s part mean that this student was never “hired” and therefore does not need to be paid as if HR made a mistake?

You are right and HR is wrong. Employers are legally required to pay employees within specific time periods set out by state law, and “our software messed it up” doesn’t release them from that obligation. Here’s what Massachusetts’s pay deadlines are.

Caveat: government sometimes excludes themselves from the employment rules they lay out for everyone else, so if this is a public university you’d need to check whether they’re exempt from this (although I doubt they are). Either way, I suggest saying to HR, “State law requires us to pay wages owed within X days of the pay period ending. She’d be within her rights to file a wage complaint with the state if we don’t comply with the law.”

Also, if you’ve been dealing with the same HR person through all of this, consider escalating it over their head.

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A new survey suggests that members of Gen Z are falling for misinformation about sun protection at an alarmingly high rate. In an era where UV rays are more harmful than ever before, here the biggest misconceptions 12- to 27-year-olds have about sunscreen.
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When Microsoft released the unique early beta build of Multitasking DOS 4, I quickly found out that it does not run in VirtualBox:

This was a bit of a surprise, because the more-or-less released versions of Multitasking DOS 4 from 1986 runs just fine.

As an aside, I originally thought that “Internal Error 4560” had some meaning… but it does not. 4560h is just the offset within the DOS kernel code segment where the failure is detected.

After digging deeper, a further surprise awaited me: The May 1984 beta does not work because it probably really shouldn’t.

It is very lucky that the beta came with partial source code for the BIOS module (IO.SYS). The source code makes it clear why it’s not working, and it’s not difficult to guess how that happened.

The Why

The reason why the beta build doesn’t work in VirtualBox is that it unconditionally programs the floppy controller (FDC) data rate to 250 kbps, but the data rate needs to be 300 kbps for a double-density floppy (360K) to work in a high-density drive (1.2M).

The reason for this is simple. Low density 5.25″ PC floppy drives spin the disks at 300 RPM, and MFM data is read and written using a 250 kbps data rate. However, the high-density 1.2M drives spin the media at 360 RPM, or 20% faster. To account for the change in RPM, the floppy controller also needs to operate 20% faster, at 300 kbps rather than 250 kbps.

The How

The PC and PC/XT floppy controller does not have a programmable data rate; there is only one rate, 250 kbps. The PC/AT FDC does have a programmable rate, and can choose between 250, 300, or 500 kbps.

Now the funny thing is that the IBM PC/AT was announced on August 14, 1984—but the Multitasking DOS 4 beta is several months older, from May 1984.

It is obvious (and unsurprising) that Microsoft had PC/AT prototypes in May 1984. It is also obvious that Multitasking DOS 4 ran on those prototypes. But… for whatever reason, the prototypes Microsoft used to run Multitasking DOS 4 only had low density floppy drives.

Here are the relevant excerpts from IBMDSK.ASM, which includes floppy driver code:

; Constants for floppy disk controller

Rate99=		000H		; Step rate 96tpi disk in 96tpi drive
Rate49=		001H		; Step rate 48tpi disk in 96tpi drive
Rate44=		002H		; Step rate 48tpi disk in 48tpi drive

...

; I/O ports

FD_PSEL=	03F2H		; Controls drive select and motors
FD_PDAT=	03F5H		; Data transfer to/from controller
FD_PSTAT=	03F4H		; Controller status
FD_PCMD=	03F7H		; Controller command register

...

;*	Floppy state Start
;
;	Do setup calculations to figure out sector, start
;  up motor, advance to Calc state.
;
...

FlExStart:
	mov	si,OFFSET Floppy	; SI = pointer to per-device info.
	les	bx,FloppyQueue		; ES:BX = pointer to current request
	mov	al,es:[bx].RqUnit
	mov	ah,es:[bx].RqMedia
	call	FDGetBPB		; DI = drive parameters
	CALL	Setup			; Do setup calculations
	MOV	DX,FD_PCMD
	MOV	AL,Rate44
	OUT	DX,AL			; Set step rate
	MOV	Floppy.State,Calc	; Advance to next state
flexj1: JMP	FloppyExecute		; Now return to do Calc code

The floppy driver built into the BIOS module unconditionally programs the floppy controller to run at a 250 kbps data rate, suitable for low-density drives. The comments in the source code are somewhat misleading, since they mention “step rate”, but it’s really the data rate.

The 0, 1, and 2 data rate selectors correspond to 500, 300, and 250 kbps. The comments in IBMDSK.ASM are correct in that these data rates are suitable for HD floppies in HD drives, DD floppies in HD drives, and DD floppies in DD drives, respectively.

As implied above, the FD_PCMD register (I/O port 3F7h) does not even exist on IBM PC and PC/XT machines; writing to the I/O port has no effect. But on the PC/AT it certainly does do something… and did even several months before the PC/AT was announced.

When booting up, the ROM BIOS necessarily has to program the correct data rate. But as Multitasking DOS switches to its own driver, the IO.SYS module resets the controller and likely loses the correct data rate (after reset, the selected data rate is likely 500 kbps). Someone at Microsoft clearly put in place a quick hack for the machines they had, setting the data rate to 250 kbps. That fixes PC/AT machines with low density 360K drives, but breaks PC/AT systems with high density 1.2M drives, where the correct data rate is 300 kbps.

For reference, the problematic MOV/MOV/OUT instruction sequence is at offset 17F6h in the IBMBIO.COM file. In a running system, the code ends up at address 0070:17F6h.

But… Why?

Readers may be wondering why Multitasking DOS 4 has its own native floppy driver at all, unlike regular DOS. In fact it not only has a floppy driver, but also a hard disk driver. For PC/XT hard disks only, not for PC/AT hard disks.

I can only guess that the motivation was multitasking. The PC and XT BIOS has absolutely no provisions for multitasking. That is especially painful for floppy access, which is quite slow; when using the ROM BIOS, the CPU just does a lot of waiting.

Using a “modern” interrupt-driven disk driver gave Microsoft the ability to run disk operations in the background, and use the CPU for other tasks in the meantime. But that required writing a custom disk driver; the ROM BIOS just couldn’t do it.

Loose Ends

I’ve not been able to ascertain if the same boot failure truly happens on a real PC/AT compatible with high-density 5.25″ drives, but I think it should (note that under emulation, all bets are off!). On 3.5″ drives the behavior is different, because low-density 3.5″ media uses 250 kbps data rate even in high-density drives, same as low-density 5.25″ drives.

Martin Mull came to national fame with a recurring role on the Norman Lear-created satirical soap opera “Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman,” and the starring role in its spinoff, “Fernwood Tonight."

(Image credit: Willy Sanjuan)

Beryl strengthened from a tropical storm into a hurricane on Saturday as the storm made its way through the southeast Caribbean. Forecasters expect it to intensify rapidly into a major hurricane.

A wandering kinkajou, a small mammal that lives in the rainforests of Mexico and Central and South America, was spotted outside of Yakima, Washington.

In brief: This tropical update has been cross-posted from our companion site The Eyewall. Although we do not yet have major concerns about direct impacts to Texas from Beryl, it is not out of the question that the storm could get into the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. Since we have been receiving a lot of questions about Beryl, here’s what we know right now.

Overview

As of late morning on Sunday, the tropical Atlantic remains very active for the end of June. In addition to Beryl, there are a couple of systems the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential development. We’ll comment on those at the end of this post, but our primary focus today is the rapidly developing Beryl, which as of 10:35 am CT is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane.

Hurricane Beryl this week

Thanks to warm seas, the system has intensified during the last 24 hours from a 50-mph tropical storm into a powerful 130-mph hurricane as it nears the Windward Islands. It should then cross these islands on Monday and move into the Caribbean Sea. The storm will likely remain sufficiently south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to preclude serious damage there, but it could threaten Jamaica on Wednesday and Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula toward the end of the week. After that? Movement into the Gulf of Mexico is possible, but after this point our confidence starts to decrease.

In terms of intensity, additional strengthening of Beryl is likely over the next 24 hours or so as Beryl traverses very warm seas and is encountering relatively little wind shear. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a peak strength of 140 mph sustained winds by Monday morning, when the storm passes near islands including Grenada, Barbados, St. Lucia, and Martinique. These locations should prepare for the most intense wind and surge impacts beginning after midnight tonight, and lasting through at least Monday morning. Localized rain totals of 6 to 12 inches are possible. This is a very serious situation, and residents should prepare accordingly.

As it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday and Tuesday, Beryl should encounter moderately stronger wind shear, and this probably will cause some weakening. But the jury is very much out on how much weakening will occur before Beryl approaches Jamaica on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the system having sustained winds of 120 mph at that time, but this is just a reasonable guess. By Thursday night or Friday, as the center approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, it’s likely that Beryl will weaken a little bit further. It will still likely bring hurricane-force winds to these locations sometime between late Thursday night and Friday night, in addition to heavy rainfall.

Hurricane Beryl this weekend

Our certainty about Beryl’s track begins to fade by the weekend. From now through Friday, a fairly strong high pressure system should continue to push the storm westward. Over the weekend and into early next week, it is possible this ridge continues to steer Beryl westward into the Bay of Campeche. (It is not clear how much interaction with the Yucatan would disrupt Beryl’s circulation, but some weakening is virtually certain). In this scenario, Beryl is likely to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico and plow into the east coast of the Mexican mainland, similar to Tropical Storm Alberto about 10 days ago.

However, there is also the possibility that this ridge weakens, somewhat. At this point, this remains a lesser likelihood when we look at the global models. Still, there is a non-zero chance that Beryl turns northwestward after encountering the Yucatan Peninsula. In such a scenario a tropical system—be it a tropical storm or hurricane—could come to the Texas or even Louisiana coast late next weekend. I understand that everyone would like to have absolute answers about whether this will happen, but we just don’t have that kind of certainty right now.

Bottom line: Direct Texas impacts are within the realm of probability from Beryl, but the odds remain fairly low. We can see this distribution of possibilities when we look at the “super ensemble” track of forecasts for Beryl, which favors the ridge holding strong. We should know more about this part of Beryl’s forecast by Monday or Tuesday, and of course we’ll remain on top of that.

Invest 94L

There is still a short window for this tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico to develop on Sunday before it likely moves inland into Mexico on Monday. The primary threat from Invest 94L is heavy rains in southern Mexico and Central America, which saw similar impacts from Alberto just 10 days ago. Regardless of whether this system develops further or not, the effects will be the same. There will be no impacts for Texas.

Invest 96L

The third area of tropical interest is trailing Hurricane Beryl by a few days as it traverses the open Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next week, and at this point it seems likely to impact the Windwards Islands in a similar location. This could happen as soon as Wednesday, and could deliver an awful second whammy.

However, I have some questions about how much Beryl will perturb the ocean and atmosphere, and this could help to mitigate the strengthening of this tropical disturbance as it nears the Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. We will be keeping a close eye on the system, in any case.

WINDSOR — Local cat Furvel Mittenpaws has sent shockwaves through the Watson household after deliberately knocking over the family’s swear jar in an act of pure malice. “That son of a bitch knew exactly what the fuck he was doing,” said Darren Watson, a podiatrist and father of two. “He’s the fucking reason we’re using […]

The post Piece of shit cat knocks over fucking swear jar appeared first on The Beaverton.

TORONTO – According to a study conducted by a panel of cybersecurity experts, your new password lacks the special spark of your old one and will never bring you the same joy. “Few people get through life without resetting their password at least once, if not several times,” the study said. “But in this case […]

The post Security experts agree new password will never love you like the old one did appeared first on The Beaverton.

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PETALUMA, CA—Noting that whoever was in charge clearly took the assignment and ran with it, sources told reporters Friday that an overly ambitious nature center had squeezed 25 informational placards out of one sad little marsh. “I’d barely made it out of the parking lot before I passed six different signs describing…

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NEW YORK—In response to numerous complaints filed with the USDA, Maybelline publicly denied lab-testing their mascara products on Italian widows Friday, calling the accusation a “harmful, baseless rumor.” “Contrary to the abhorrent rumors circulating about our company, Maybelline does not test our waterproof eye…

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2024 PRESIDENTIAL deBATE
CNN STUDIOS
ATLANTA, GEORGIA
JUNE 27, 2024

9:00 PM: Moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash explain that this debate will happen in a studio without a live audience as the only people even slightly interested in attending were individuals who fell into a coma just before 2016 and have only recently woken up, and even those three people were more interested in visiting the Cincinnati Zoo to see Harambe than hearing what either the former reality-television host or current president have to say.

9:02 PM: Tapper starts with a question on the economy, asking Biden what he plans to do to combat rising food and home prices. Biden’s gaze unfocuses as if he’s trying to see a sailboat in a Magic Eye poster. He replies hoarsely, “You have to look at what Trump left me. He was saying to inject bleach into your arms, and we have to put things back together.” Biden brings a handkerchief to his mouth and coughs in a way that film critics would deem “foreboding.”

9:05 PM: Tapper turns the question of the economy to Trump, who glares like a villain who has just been informed about the presence of a “Batman.” “We had the greatest economy in the history of the country,” Trump says. “We’ve never done so well. Other countries came up to me, and they said, ‘Sir, sir, how are you economying so great?’ because they all want to be my economy, and it’s a very big economy, you know.’” Tapper begins his next question, but Trump interrupts to say he wasn’t done talking about how everyone’s jealous of his economy. Tapper tells him that he’s asking a follow-up question, and he’ll get another eighty seconds to do whatever he wants with it, like shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any unchallenged, fawning media coverage. Trump nods.

9:14 PM: Bash asks Trump about his thoughts on the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. “Everyone wanted this,” Trump says, “Every single person. I talked to a Democrat who said, ‘Please, sir, please, you have to send abortion to the states so that we can murder my toddler in Ohio,’ and I said I think that’s a little, I mean, even I think that Ohio is bad, but if that’s what they want, then I said if everyone wants it, not a single person doesn’t. But also the Democrats kill babies after birth, they do it all the time. Have you ever killed a baby? It’s a rush. I mean, you have to follow your heart, and it’s a bit much for me, but also, you have to admit the feeling of strangling a baby is very powerful. Of course, you have to be a monster to do it, but that’s what Democrats are.” Bash replies, “Thank you.”

9:18 PM: Bash turns to Biden and says that seven states have no restrictions on abortion, and then asks if he has ever murdered an infant. Biden’s skull sputters, “That’s a lie!” before coughing several more times.

9:21 PM: A studio assistant presses play on the prerecorded AI-generated Jake Tapper, which instructs the candidates to say something about immigration. “Immigrants will kill you,” Trump says. “They are hiding in your fridge and eating up all your cream cheese, and they’ll murder you when you sleep, which is fully legal in Democrat states.” Biden responds, “Now, look here, they’re,” and then freezes for a minute before continuing. “The immigrants are migrating and that’s… not… now… it’s….” Trump interrupts, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence, and I don’t think he knows either,” before explaining that sometimes immigrants dress up like palm trees to inch closer to you when your back is turned. The camera operator is heard whispering, “Siri, what is the quickest way to burn an entire building to the ground?”

9:51 PM: Moving to foreign policy, Bash asks Biden his thoughts on Israel. Seemingly regaining his voice, Biden answers, “Thank you for having me here. I’m looking forward to a good discussion tonight. When do we start?”

10:00 PM: Bash asks Trump what he would do to combat climate change. Trump’s eyes find a previously undiscovered level of beadiness. “Have I mentioned how much the police love me?” he says. “Also, I know a Black guy. All the police kiss my feet, and they’re quite dirty but they do it, they suck my toes. It’s a sign of respect, so I let them.” Bash, momentarily forgetting her place as a mere conservative amplification system, asks again, “But what about the climate?” Trump responds, “I have the best environment numbers, my environment guys actually told me that just before I walked on, they were crunching the environment numbers and I won. I beat the environment, and that’s not something that happens much.” Biden turns to the nonexistent audience, “I don’t know what the hell he’s talking about.”

10:20 PM: Bash asks Biden about concerns over his age. “Most of my career, I’ve been the youngest,” he says, “and this guy is three years younger than me.” Trump pulls out a certificate that reads, DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN EXAMINED BY ME, A REAL DOCTOR, AND HE IS SUPER STRONG AND NOT STUPID. There are three gold stars and two pink heart stickers on the edges of the document, and it is signed by “Real Doctor, M.D.” Trump adds, “I beat Roger Federer in a game of tennis last week. In space. Beautiful up there. I also won the Masters. Biden always chokes on the back nine.” Biden, visibly angry, exclaims, “Malarkey! I eagled at St. Andrews, and you know it!” Trump scoffs, “I’ve seen your swing.” Biden raises his walker in the air and shakes it at Trump, “You stinking kids—get out of my yard!” Bash looks directly at the camera and says, “Dear god, make it all stop.” Trump mimics slicing a shot into Biden’s head, Biden ducks.

CLOSING STATEMENTS

BREAKING NEWS INTERRUPTS THE DEBATE: The Supreme Court has just decided on a case they made up in their own heads. The majority 6-3 ruling limits the power of this or any future president, as the Court’s originalist reading of James Madison’s fever dream changes the branches of the government from judicial, executive, and legislative to judicial, billionaire, and ghost of Antonin Scalia. The decision received a strong rebuke from Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who, in a dissent joined by her liberal colleagues, wrote, “Honestly, fuck this whole thing.”