Cowboy Who?

(2:25 PM ET Update): The storm surge forecast has been increased to 12 to 18 feet in the Big Bend, now well above the levels set during Idalia last year. This has potential to be the benchmark event for this region historically.

(1:20 ET Update): Hurricane Helene is here, as it has strengthened enough to cross the threshold to hurricane intensity. Winds are 80 mph, and strengthening into a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane is expected up to landfall tomorrow night.

Helene will rapidly intensify into a major hurricane tonight or tomorrow. SHIPS model guidance shows a 10 times greater than normal chance of Helene adding 50 mph to its intensity over the next 36 hours, which would place the storm on the cusp of category 4 intensity.

Whatever it becomes at this point may matter little, as the impacts now seem set: Catastrophic storm surge, worse than Idalia for the Big Bend and Nature Coast, severe storm surge in Tampa Bay, significant wind damage from the Big Bend and Panhandle deep into Georgia, and potentially catastrophic flooding in North Georgia and the Carolinas. Among other impacts. For the U.S., Helene appears to be the most significant threat of the 2024 hurricane season.

The surge forecast has changed little from this morning, though the 10 to 15 foot values were nudged a bit west to Carrabelle, FL. Again, this is likely to be much worse than Idalia and over a larger area.

The landfall forecast continues to hold steady. Expected landfall is in or very near Apalachee Bay.

Inland tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded today and now cover parts of Alabama, all of Georgia, much of South Carolina, and western North Carolina.

We continue to watch the rainfall outlook very closely. Unfortunately, many areas will be drenched today by a predecessor rain event (PRE) that will exacerbate flooding as Helene itself comes inland tomorrow night. As much as 2 to 5 inches of rain are expected today and tonight across Georgia and into North Carolina.

With more rain tomorrow and the storm itself not arriving until tomorrow night and Friday, conditions will steadily deteriorate into Friday in those areas, and the severity of flash flooding will worsen. This will be a prolonged, extremely serious flooding event for North Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and western North Carolina. Landslides, at least moderate river flooding, and possibly major river flooding is a safe bet in those areas. Current forecasts indicate perhaps as much as 20 inches of rain in some southeast facing mountains in western North Carolina.

We will update again later today.

What’s changed since yesterday

• Helene’s forecast intensity as it approaches Florida has been increased a bit, with risk for further increase in the intensity forecast today. Folks between Port St. Joe and Cedar Key should be preparing for major hurricane impacts.
• Hurricane Warnings extend into Georgia, a good bit beyond Valdosta. Tropical Storm Warnings now cover virtually the entire Florida Peninsula. Tropical Storm Watches extend into central Georgia and much of southeastern South Carolina.
• Helene’s track and surge forecast is relatively unchanged.
• The interior rainfall forecast has escalated, and there is growing risk of a potentially damaging, catastrophic flash flooding event from northeast Georgia into western North Carolina, including Asheville.

Not a whole lot has changed since yesterday. It’s nice to have a consistent forecast, but this is certainly turning into quite a serious situation for the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Again, the minimum you should expect right now is an Idalia-type impact. For many, if not most places between Apalachee Bay and Tampa, this will probably be a worse impact than Idalia. Current surge forecasts continue to suggest impacts at or above Idalia. This surge forecast is virtually unchanged from 12 hours ago.

There’s honestly not a whole lot that needs to be said here with respect to the Florida coast between Cedar Key and Apalachee Bay: This has a decent chance to be worse than Idalia was and you should be closely following the advice of local officials.

The track forecast isn’t entirely locked down, but it’s close to it right now. There are still a handful of model data points suggesting a track slightly farther east than currently shown by the majority of tropical models and the official NHC forecast. This won’t hit Tampa directly, but a track closer to Cedar Key or Steinhatchee is possible, a Nature Coast/Big Bend hit more than an Apalachee Bay hit. This is why we encourage everyone from Port St. Joe to Homosassa or Clearwater to prepare for a significant hurricane hit, be it via surge, wind, or both.

It’s also important to note how deep into Georgia hurricane-force winds are expected to go. That takes them close to Albany, GA and about halfway to Macon. Tropical storm force winds are expected to extend north of Macon to metro Atlanta and into South Carolina. This will almost certainly cause widespread power outages, and folks should be prepared to be without power for at least a few days.

Here is a list of major cities and their maximum wind gust forecasts from the NWS Point and Click forecasts as of Wednesday morning. These are likely to change:

(Editor’s Note: We will update these later today with slightly better data than point & click forecasts)

Florida
Tallahassee: 63 mph
Cedar Key: 80 mph
Apalachicola: 77 mph
Panama City: 54 mph
Clearwater: 60 mph
Tampa: 59 mph
Sarasota: 72 mph
Fort Myers: 57 mph
Naples: 56 mph
Orlando: 49 mph
Jacksonville: 63 mph
Gainesville: 56 mph
Key West: 44 mph

Elsewhere
Valdosta: 57 mph
Albany, GA: 68 mph
Macon: 92 mph
Atlanta: 56 mph
Savannah: 39 mph
Athens: 75 mph
Augusta: 46 mph
Charleston: 37 mph
Columbia: 41 mph
Greenville: 48 mph
Spartanburg: 43 mph
Charlotte: 41 mph
Asheville: 51 mph

A major, potentially catastrophic flooding event possible in the Appalachians

I want to focus on one element of this storm that is now coming into focus and becoming very serious: The risk of significant, possibly catastrophic flash flooding in the Appalachians from north Georgia into North Carolina.

A high risk of flooding has been issued for some of those areas by the Weather Prediction Center, which historically has correlated to extensive, significant damage.

This is a historically favorable setup for major rainfall in this region, and there’s no reason to believe this forecast is incorrect. So for anyone in those affected areas and even in the red moderate risk areas surrounding the high risk, it is important to be prepared to take immediate action in the case of flooding or landslides. Please heed the advice of local officials. It is possible that the damage and problems from the inland flooding will be equally as bad as the surge issues at the coast.

Helene is going to be a complex, very difficult storm with multiple different concerns along the way. We’ll keep you posted as best we can through the event, but please also stick with trusted local sources for the latest and most relevant information for your neighborhood. We’ll update this post through the day.

Changes since this morning

• PTC 9 became Tropical Storm Helene and its satellite presentation has improved markedly since earlier today.
• Hurricane Warnings have been issued between Anclote River just north of Clearwater and Mexico Beach in Florida.
• Storm Surge Warnings have been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass in Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
• Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Lower & Middle Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida between Flamingo and the Anclote River, which includes Tampa Bay.
• Tropical Storm Watches are now posted on the East Coast of Florida and Georgia between the Palm Beach and Martin County line and Savannah River.

Tropical Storm Helene is slowly getting organized now, as it appears that the wind shear impacting it earlier has leveled off, and it’s feeling the heat of the warm water underneath it. Expect a steady, if not rapid strengthening process to start unfolding soon. SHIPS model guidance indicates rapid intensification risk that is about 8 times climatology over the next 48 hours, not the biggest number we’ve seen in recent years but a very healthy signal that says Helene is going to take off eventually.

Helene’s satellite presentation has improved pretty dramatically today.

It now “looks the part” much more than it did earlier. One thing to note is the size of Helene. This is a pretty sprawling storm already, and as it comes north, it will continue to maintain that size, with tropical storm and hurricane force winds extending out farther than we’ve seen with recent Big Bend storms in Florida. According to the NHC’s latest discussion, this storm will be in the 90th percentile of major hurricane size at this latitude. In other words, it’s big, and the winds from Helene will be felt, especially on the east side far away from the center and outside the cone.

The forecast has changed little since this morning. We still anticipate a major hurricane making landfall in or near the area between the Big Bend and Apalachee Bay in Florida. The size of the storm will complicate the surge potential somewhat on the west coast of Florida, leading to surge values that should be as bad or worse than were experienced in Idalia. We covered that a bit more earlier today.

The intensity forecasts on tropical modeling for Helene have stalled somewhat today, certainly not a bad thing! However, I would be hesitant to read into that too much, as we’ve seen many examples of storms “overachieving” in this part of the Gulf. The biggest question that I have at this point is how close to peak intensity Helene will be when it comes ashore. There is a noteworthy difference between a 115 mph storm making landfall on an upswing versus one that has peaked and is weakening. Idalia was bad enough last year, but it was also past peak and likely less bad than it could have been. Can we pull that off twice? I don’t know, but I know to never trust the Gulf.

More to come tomorrow, and we can hopefully iron out some forecast details farther inland into Georgia and the Carolinas as well.

Attorney General Ken Paxton had turned to the high court to overturn the ban after other lower courts declined to intercede.

Three Mile Island, the scene of the worst commercial nuclear accident in U.S. history, will reopen to power Microsoft’s data centers, which are responsible for powering the tech giant’s cloud computing and artificial intelligence programs. What do you think?

The post Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant To Reopen To Power Microsoft Data Centers appeared first on The Onion.

TORONTO – Following the Lisa Laflamme “Hair-gate” scandal, CTV News has announced a groundbreaking programming initiative to revamp their flagging national reputation as a leading source of Canadian news. The new 24-nanosecond news cycle, launching this week, will enable Canadians to keep track of evolving news stories with notifications coming in every 24 billionths of […]

The post CTV announces 24 nanosecond news cycle appeared first on The Beaverton.

The US state alleges in a first-of-its-kind lawsuit that the oil giant misled the public on recycling.

NEW YORK CITY – Canadian PM Justin Trudeau appeared on The Late Show yesterday, where he and host Stephen Colbert got to enjoy reminiscing on how cool they were 8-10 years ago. “My next guest was also very popular with young, progressive millennials from the mid 2000s through 2016,” said Colbert, unfortunately not in character […]

The post Trudeau, Colbert bond over shared status of ‘guys who were cool a decade ago’ appeared first on The Beaverton.

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

A reader writes:

I work at a small public library and I have a coworker who is a very naturally anxious person. He apologizes for every little thing, whether it’s his fault, not his fault, or not something that could possibly be anyone’s fault. I feel like I hear him say “I’m so sorry” with complete sincerity a dozen times a day.

It’s not just a verbal habit, he means it. This is not “I’m sorry you’re not feeling well,” it’s “I’m so sorry that I took a scheduled phone call at the time that I said I would and that meant I wasn’t able to refill the printer paper when it ran out in the middle of your print job, I should have anticipated that and I’m so sorry you had to do it.” Whether he’s apologizing to a patron that there’s a waitlist on the book they want, or to our coworker that she talked to the loud teenagers before he did, or to me when I mention I don’t like the ringtone on the new desk phone, it’s all Red Alert Remorse Top Priority Contrition Protocol.

I don’t care that he didn’t print out more copies of a form that I can also print out! I don’t blame him that the building manager hasn’t fixed the leaky faucet in the staff bathroom! He’s constantly taking on the full responsibility for absolutely everything. It must be exhausting for him, and the rest of us have to reassure him multiple times a day that it’s not necessary.

He also takes responsibility for every possible work task, but is bad at multitasking and prioritizing those as well. This results in more apologies when he wants to organize spare computer parts in the closet but gets distracted partway through and leaves loose keyboards and mice all over the floor, or he does go to get more printer paper but gets distracted refilling a water cooler and then tries to load the paper with wet hands. We are short-staffed, but things are not so hectic that he needs to do absolutely everything, by himself, right now. This frustration I have tried to let go, since it is our manager’s responsibility, not mine.

But it’s hard to bring up real issues and feel like he hears and understands that I’m asking for a change in behavior, not an acknowledgment of guilt. One time it took him 25 minutes to drop off mail in the front office, and I had to page the office to get him back out when the floor got too busy for me to handle on my own. I pointed out as patiently as I could that this happens a lot, asked that he keep track of time, and suggested that the next time the mail came he didn’t need to rush it to the office ASAP — especially since some of it turned out to be for me and he had to bring it back. He spent five minutes apologizing, but he still does something like this at least once a week, months later. I appreciated the apology, but I would have appreciated it more if he tried not to do it again.

This happens even when he identifies the issue himself, for example apologizing for calling me (a woman) and another coworker (nonbinary) “you guys” and basically mansplaining to us why he was wrong to use a gendered term that we might not be comfortable with … but he still defaults to calling every library visitor either “sir” or “miss.”

Because he apologizes so often, but he never follows up the “sorry” with any real change, I don’t actually take any of his apologies that seriously. Even though I know he feels bad, I’m frustrated and unsympathetic because all he does is feel bad.

It’s clear to me that this is internal to him and probably only a long course of dedicated personal work could help him get to the bottom of the guilt he feels over every other person’s minor inconveniences. It would be nice if he could dial it down three or four notches at work, though.

I’m in full BEC territory, not because I dislike him, but because it’s so exhausting. I have limited emotional space for his constant apologies and all the work I wind up doing to either communicate that I’m not upset about the thing he did (or someone else did, or the freaking weather did) or that while I appreciate a since “my bad,” what I really want is for the mistake not to happen again. I like him just fine as a person, but this habit has really worn down the respect and patience I’m able to hold for him as a coworker.

Do you have a kind script that I can use to communicate either or both of these ideas:
1. Don’t apologize for things you have no control over, or
2. If you do have control over the thing, try fixing it.
And if you don’t have a kind script, do you have one that might result in him not apologizing for how much he apologizes?

That sounds utterly exhausting. I’m sure this is coming from a deeply-rooted place on his side, but it’s demanding a lot of emotional labor from you each time: you have to pause the conversation and reassure him that it’s fine. I was worn out just reading about it.

That said, you might not be able to change it. This stuff is deeply-rooted, and sometimes it can become almost like a verbal tic where the other person isn’t even aware of how often they’re doing it.

But you can certainly try!

The next time he apologizes unnecessarily and there aren’t other people around (so you don’t embarrass him by calling him out publicly), you could say: “Can ask you a favor? You apologize to me and other people a lot and it’s unnecessary. It makes me feel like I have to pause the conversation and reassure you that it’s okay. I know it’s probably an ingrained habit, but I’d be grateful if you didn’t apologize to me so frequently.” If you want, you could add, “Or at all, really!”

He will probably apologize in response to this. I don’t think you can prevent that. But you’ll have laid the groundwork so that the next time he starts to apologize, you can cut him off and say, “No apologies” and then keep talking — and that part is key. If you just say “no apologies” and then pause, you’re leaving room for him to apologize for apologizing or otherwise continue in the vein, or to just feel awkward. It’s better if it goes something like this:

Coworker: “I saw you had to help that patron and I’m sorry—“
You: “No apologies needed! She was asking about books on llama grooming and it made me remember that time last year when we found that llama sleeping in the kitchen. Do you remember that?”

or

Coworker: “I saw you had to help that patron and I’m sorry—“
You: “No apologies needed! Hey, have you seen Lucinda? I wanted to ask her about the crocodile presentation she’s doing.”

And so forth.

Sometimes a visual signal like raising your hand in a “stop” motion is useful too, but the most important thing is to just quickly move the conversation to a different track and keep it there.

The more complicated piece is when you’re trying to get him to hear that you’re asking for a change in behavior, not an apology. In those cases, try this:

You: “You’ve been entering the oatmeal inventory incorrectly. Can you remember to use the checklist each time so steps aren’t missed?
Coworker: “I’m really sorry, I should have remembered, I am a terrible person—“
You: “No apologies needed. I would prefer if we could talk about how to do this going forward without you apologizing because that takes us off the main point, which is…”

But this can be really, really ingrained, so I’d imagine you’re looking at a lot of repetition of these strategies, unfortunately. If it helps to remember, though, it’s likely a kindness to him, since he probably doesn’t even hear how often he’s doing it.

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

A reader writes:

I am extremely jealous of my coworker, and I have no idea what to do about it.

My coworker, let’s call her Lacy, and I started in the same entry-level position around the same time (Lacy started a few months before me). We’re similar in age and, while Lacy graduated from a much better university than me, had similar majors.

It was a terrible working environment for a long time due to our toxic manager, and Lacy and I bonded a lot over surviving. Then, about two years ago, there was a total overhaul of our department and our manager was replaced, along with almost all of the team except for the two of us.

Since then, Lacy has been promoted twice and makes almost 50% more than me, and I … am still in the same position. Objectively, I can understand why this happened. Lacy is very skilled and calm under pressure. Meanwhile, I struggle with socializing and really can’t handle pressure. In fact, even after her promotions, Lacy sometimes helps me with the more high-stress parts of my job.

I know all this objectively, but I am so, so jealous of her. When she got her first promotion, I had to leave the building because I was beginning to cry in front of her and our new manager. When her second promotion was announced, I had a panic attack and had to take a sick day. Sometimes, I can’t help but delay tasks that Lacy asks me to do because if she’s so great, surely she can do it herself (I know this isn’t how it works, this is just how I think in the moment). It’s hard for me to say thank you when she helps me out because it just feels like she’s rubbing it in, even though I know she isn’t.

It’s been two years, but I can’t adjust. My manager has talked to me about it several times throughout the years, and no one has mentioned firing or a PIP, but I’m sick of feeling this way. I know that this is on me, but I’m struggling so much. How can I change?

Two things: Change jobs, and therapy.

Change jobs because you’re miserable in this one! You’re comparing yourself to Lacy and having panic attacks over her accomplishments and even doing worse work yourself out of resentment, which risks harming you professionally. It sounds like you’ve been at this job for a number of years — and you’re deeply unhappy. Why not leave? You don’t need to stay and feel tortured.

But it’s essential to also pair that with therapy, because Lacy isn’t going to be the last person you encounter who triggers these feelings. I suppose it’s possible that there’s something specific to Lacy that’s unlikely to come up again — you’re similar ages and backgrounds, you started at the same time, you trauma-bonded together, and so it feels like whatever she achieves that you don’t reflects on you — but your reaction to her success has been intense enough that something is going on internally that’s not about Lacy and that’s likely to pop up in other ways in your life and make you unhappy, even after you’re long gone from this job. That’s therapy stuff.

Meanwhile, though, while you’re working on whatever those issues turn out to be (and it may be a while, because a lot of therapists have waiting lists for new patients right now and because even once you start, progress takes time), you really don’t need to keep trying to power through this.

If it were easy to solve with logic or mental reframing, you would have already done it.

Give yourself the gift of changing jobs. But also give yourself the gift of committing to delve into (with help) what led you here.

Six Texas Arts Organizations Receive Inaugural NEA ArtsHERE Grants

The National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) has announced that it is awarding more than $12 million in grants to 112 arts organizations across the U.S. through its ArtsHERE program. Six Texas organizations are among the awardees. 

The pilot program ArtsHERE was announced last fall, the goal of this initiative is to support organizations committed to equity by increasing arts participation for historically underserved groups and communities. The recommended grant recipients are from all 50 states, D.C., Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Grantees will receive $65,000 to $130,000 to support specific projects. 

In a press release, Maria Rosario Jackson, PhD, the Chair of the NEA, remarked, “The NEA is thrilled to provide resources to a group of exceptional organizations through ArtsHERE, a program to help deepen meaningful and lasting arts engagement in underserved communities. Everyone should be able to live an artful life, and ArtsHERE is an important step in ensuring we are strengthening our nation’s arts ecosystem to make this a reality.”

The Texas awardees include Art Spark Texas and Babes Fest, Inc. in Austin, Arts Connect Houston and RSA of Dance & Performing Arts in Houston, Teatro Dallas, and The Welman Project in Fort Worth.

Taylor Willis, Co-Founder and Co-Executive Director of The Welman Project, a creative reuse organization that provides free resources for educators, told Glasstire, “Receiving the ArtsHERE grant is transformative for our community, as it empowers us to build the needed infrastructure for a makerspace and tool library that provides equitable access to creative resources, a first in Fort Worth. This support brings us closer to the vision of the Transform 1012 N Main Street coalition, turning a former KKK building into a vibrant artistic hub where creativity, inclusivity, and community can flourish.”

Learn about each of the proposed projects below, via descriptions provided by NEA.

Art Spark Texas
$105,903

With ArtsHERE funding, Art Spark Texas will conduct participant-informed research on how to re-engage and better serve young adults with disabilities. Through that project, it will build staff expertise, leverage arts through its programs, and increase accessibility and inclusion for individuals with disabilities. Art Spark Texas challenges perceptions of how people contribute by creating arts-inspired, inclusive communities of artists and individuals with and without disabilities.

Arts Connect Houston
$130,000

The ArtsHERE grant will leverage a decade of Arts Connect Houston’s (ACH) data and experience in arts education to develop replicable, community-driven benchmarking tools, focused on providing more students, especially those from underserved communities, with high-quality arts education. ACH unites the Greater Houston community to ensure equitable access to the arts for all students. With 95 arts and culture partners, they provide comprehensive arts education to over 200,000 students annually.

Babes Fest, Inc. (Future Front Texas)
$130,000

The ArtsHERE grant will help Future Front Texas codify its community curator program, to deepen staff capacity and create a public curriculum from community design within the arts and culture sector. This program provides traditionally overlooked creatives, artists, and cultural workers in Texas with the opportunity to explore equity-driven curatorial structures, program design-thinking and community-led creative work. Future Front focuses on supporting women and LGBTQ+ creatives in Texas through programs, workshops, and exhibitions that provide platforms for underrepresented voices in the arts.

RSA of Dance & Performing Arts
$125,000

The ArtsHERE grant will expand RSA’s Arts to Infinity program, an initiative for youth from under-resourced communities that combines dance education, performance opportunities, community development, and holistic wellness programming for families. The mission of RSA of Dance & Performing Arts is to provide quality arts education, mentorship, and experiences to underserved youth, ages three and older. The organization focuses on community development and youth engagement, promoting the arts as a means of personal and social growth.

Teatro Dallas
$74,000

The ArtsHERE grant will support strategic planning, board development, innovative marketing strategies, and stakeholder engagement to better reach the shifting demographics and Spanish-speaking communities of North Texas. For over three decades, the organization has addressed systemic barriers within the arts, particularly those affecting low-income, bilingual families and underrepresented artists. Through high-quality theatrical programming, Teatro Dallas employs the power of theater to empower the Latinx community, celebrate diverse traditions, and strengthen the community.

The Welman Project
$74,900

The ArtsHERE grant will support strategic planning and cultural competency training to help The Welman Project open its tool library and makerspace as part of the future Fred Rouse Center for Arts and Community Healing, which was formerly used as a KKK auditorium, in a majority Hispanic community. The Welman Project connects teachers and schools with surplus materials from businesses, promoting creative reuse and sustainability in education. It aims to enrich arts learning experiences while reducing waste and fostering environmental stewardship.

The post Six Texas Arts Organizations Receive Inaugural NEA ArtsHERE Grants appeared first on Glasstire.

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Today's News:

In brief: In today’s post we share our annual message about the Texas hurricane season likely being over for the rest of the year. This means we are fairly confident that a hurricane is not going to strike Texas for the remainder of 2024. Additionally, we look ahead to a short but sweet front that arrives on Wednesday. Dry air? Is such a thing even possible in Houston?

Tropics season is winding down

I’ll let you in on a little secret. Every September, around this time of year, I’ll write a post that essentially says the Texas hurricane season is over. And every time, my wife hates it. Why? Because there’s a non-zero chance that I am wrong and that, despite the odds, a hurricane will actually strike the Texas coast during the remainder of the season. It would be pretty embarrassing.

But I believe in reporting and writing what I honestly think is true. And I’m here to tell you, both Matt and I think the likelihood of a hurricane striking Texas after today this year is pretty darn low. Historically, the odds are about 1-in-50. Looking at the available data for this year, there are a couple of things to consider. Yes, the Gulf of Mexico is historically warm, and such sea surface temperatures tend to support the idea that we could see tropical systems blow up into hurricanes.

However, there are solid reasons to believe that we’re done for this year beyond the historical odds. First of all, after soon-to-form Tropical Storm Helene, the Gulf of Mexico looks fairly quiet over the next week, if not longer. That gets us into October. Then there is the overall pattern change to consider. We’ve already had one cool front earlier this month. Another is on the way Wednesday. Quite possibly, we’ll get a third front some time next week. When you start to see this kind of fall-like pattern of regular fronts, it becomes very difficult for a hurricane to blaze a trail westward across the Gulf of Mexico into Texas. Not impossible, mind you, but very unlikely.

None of this means that we won’t see tropical weather in October, or possibly even November. We could see tropical lows bringing heavy rainfall for many weeks to come. But the odds of another hurricane bearing down on our region are pretty darn low at this point. If you want to breathe a little easier, that’s fine with us.

We’ll continue to monitor the tropics, of course, and if there’s anything threatening we’ll definitely call attention to it. The Atlantic hurricane season is very much not over for the rest of the basin, particularly Florida and the Caribbean Islands. Their season lasts into November.

Tuesday

Monday’s high temperature was 95 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, but I think we’re finally done with the mid-90s. Next week could see a few pretty warm days, but the worst of this late summer fling we’ve been experiencing this month should finally be at an end. Highs today will be closer to 90 degrees as we see more clouds, and some elevated rain chances. Expect to see a couple of impulses moving through the area from northwest to southeast, each bringing some scattered showers. Rain chances will be about 40 percent today, and continuing into tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-70s for most locations.

Wednesday

The front will sag into the Houston area throughout the day on Wednesday, likely not reaching areas south of the city until Wednesday night. Therefore, most of the region is likely to reach about 90 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. As the front gets closer to the coast it will tap into more moisture, so I expect to see a decent amount of showers south of Interstate 10 on Wednesday evening as the front pushes down to the coast. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to about 70 degrees in Houston, with cooler temperatures in outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs generally in the upper 80s, and sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel noticeably drier. Lows on Thursday and Friday nights will drop into the 60s away from the coast. This is a weak front, so its effects will be modest and won’t last all that long—nevertheless mornings and evenings will be pleasant so plan to spend a little time outside enjoying the fleetingly drier air.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs will get back to about 90 degrees on Saturday, and into the lower 90s by Sunday, under mostly sunny skies. Humidity will rebound some, but with dewpoints in the 60s it’s not going to be the full-on humidity that Houston is known for in the summer. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We’ll be in the low 90s to start next week with plenty of sunshine. Humidity levels should remain marginally lower than ‘normal’ for summer, so that will be nice, and should allow overnight lows to continue dropping to around 70 degrees. There’s some hint of a cool front in about the Wednesday or Thursday time frame, but it’s no sure thing it pushes all the way down to the coast. We shall see.

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 14:59:54 GMT

PARK CITY, UT— Assuring himself that the most important thing to do in the present was to try to get his full eight hours of sleep, area man Greg Pappas, who was experiencing insomnia Monday night, reminded himself there would be plenty of time tomorrow to deal with the home invasion currently underway at his house. “I know my anxiety is telling me that dealing with this is the most important thing in the world right now, but it’s actually more important that I get the rest my body needs,” Pappas said of the burglar who loudly entered through his kitchen window, setting off an alarm before making his way toward the expensive electronics in the downstairs office. “If I try to deal with this now, I’ll end up self-sabotaging in a negative thought spiral about the intruder stealing my belongings—then, I’ll really be unproductive tomorrow. I just have to remember that I’ve dealt with every other intruder in the past, and this one will be no different, so long as I get a few solid REM cycles in first. Right now, my brain needs sleep more than it needs to call the police.” At press time, Pappas reportedly put his mind at ease by setting an alarm on his phone to remind himself to deal with the burglar in the morning. 

The post Man Struggling To Sleep Reminds Self He Can Always Deal With Home Invasion In Morning appeared first on The Onion.

READING, PA—Pushing back the order’s previously estimated delivery time of 8:30 this evening, an Amazon update reportedly informed 28-year-old Emily Frakes on Tuesday that her package would now be arriving when the sky shattered, the sun shone black, and rivers wept like men. “I only bought that humidifier because it said two-day delivery—now I’ve got to wait until all language is forgotten and the only sound remaining is the howling of the void?” said the disappointed Amazon Prime member, adding that she would have chosen to make the half-hour drive to Target had she known that raining stars would unite the kingdoms of earth beneath a banner of colorless flame before Amazon brought the household appliance to her door. “I’m definitely mentioning this in my review. It’s bullshit for them to promise one delivery time and then turn around and tell me it’s actually coming when the vengeful seas spit forth terrible leviathans and birth upon their waves a great tempest to wash away all that human hands have wrought.” At press time, Frakes told reporters that she should be entitled to a full refund if her humidifier did not arrive by the time the scalding light of the final dawn rent oblivion’s womb to be born.

The post Amazon Update Says Package Now Arriving When The Sky Shatters, The Sun Shines Black, And Rivers Weep Like Men appeared first on The Onion.

(11:40 AM CT Update): PTC 9 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene. No big changes have been made to the forecast. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is still a bit of uncertainty on the exact center location, and this means that despite the great model agreement, there is still a bit of uncertainty in the track forecast. Aside from that, everything else appears on track.

The Lower Keys were added to the Tropical Storm Warning with this advisory. Previous post follows.

Headlines

• PTC 9 continues to fight off a little shear which is slowing its initial organization.
• As that relaxes, rapid intensification and organization should ensue, with PTC 9 expected to become Major Hurricane Helene by Thursday.
• Landfall is a little later on Thursday now, likely somewhere between Panama City and Tampa with a focus on Apalachicola through Cedar Key. There is still some uncertainty on this.
• Storm surge from the Big Bend and Nature Coast through Tampa Bay is expected to be as bad or worse than what occurred during Hurricane Idalia in 2023.
• Impacts from wind and rain will extend far beyond the landfall point with Georgia and the Carolinas likely to see strong winds and flash flooding.

PTC 9 this morning

PTC 9 continues to lack the ingredients necessary to be a depression just yet, but we continue to edge closer to that point.

What’s holding it back so far? There’s a bit of wind shear mixed in with all this from an upper low over the Yucatan. Tropical systems don’t like wind shear, and as long as that continues, the pace of development will be sluggish. That is not expected to be the case, however, as modeling weakens the shear in the next day or so, allowing PTC 9 to have a less hostile environment over some of the warmest water in the Atlantic basin. That should lead to strengthening and potentially rapid strengthening at that.

PTC 9’s forecast: Angles matter

The overall forecast for PTC 9 has not changed a whole lot since yesterday.

The cone has narrowed a hair to between Panama City and Tampa. Hurricane Watches are now in effect for the Florida coast, as well as inland in the Panhandle. Tropical Storm Watches including Orlando are now posted as well. Expect some of these watches to expand later today.

On the surface, this looks like a pretty easy forecast: Tropical models are in generally good agreement on a track to the northwest, then north, then north-northeast. The clustering is pretty solid in the modeling in Apalachee Bay or near the Big Bend of Florida. So, simple right? For my college football fans: Not so fast, my friends.

The fundamental problem in predicting storms that turn is the angle at which it all happens. Generally, models handle the concept of this well, and indeed we have very good agreement right now in the models.

Because of Florida’s unique geography with a peninsula jutting out to the south, the exact landfall point gets harder and harder to pin down when a storm comes in from the south or southwest. A shift of 10 to 15 miles out over the Gulf can lead to a shift of 20 to 40 miles with respect to landfall location in Florida. We often talk about not focusing on the exact track, and indeed there’s a reason for that as impacts extend far from the center. But for things like storm surge, that exact landfall point is crucial in determining how things will turn out. It also makes the difference for places even well inland to be on the “dirty” eastern side of the storm or the slightly less menacing western side.

As long as the tropical models are correct, we’re likely to see this chug north-northeast into Apalachee Bay or the Big Bend. However, if the models are not quite grasping the interaction with an upper low over Arkansas properly, well, that could change things a bit. There’s a path to get a storm much closer to Tampa, as we discussed last night and as the ICON model continues to show this morning with a track coming ashore near Cedar Key rather than Apalachee Bay. For now, the most likely window for landfall appears to be Apalachicola to Cedar Key, with lesser bands around that to Panama City on the west and Tampa on the south/east.

The takeaway here is that this is a storm where focusing on the entire cone makes a lot of sense.

In terms of intensity, not much has changed since yesterday. We still struggle with intensity forecasts. One needs to only look at Hurricane John yesterday, which came ashore after 9 PM as a 120 mph category 3 storm in Mexico while initially forecast to be a 70 mph tropical storm at 3 AM. (Credit to the NHC however for constantly stating in their discussions that there were higher risks, and even substantially higher risks than the explicit forecast showed).

But we still expect that PTC will become Hurricane Helene and a major hurricane at that. The National Hurricane Center has this as a category 3 storm at landfall. And model support is generally for a strong storm.

The takeaway: A powerful hurricane is likely to strike Florida’s coast late Thursday, likely somewhere between Apalachicola and Cedar Key but with risks extending just beyond those goal posts.

Impacts from Helene/PTC 9

We have our first look at storm surge today from the NHC advisory, and it’s not great news.

Values of 10 to 15 feet in the Big Bend would be in line with or worse than what occurred in Idalia last summer. A 5 to 8 foot surge in Tampa Bay would also be in line with or worse than Idalia. So for planning purposes, those areas should consider Idalia as a benchmark for minimum impacts, with risk for something worse. The wind field and size of this storm is expected to be somewhat broader than in Idalia, which also is concerning from a potentially worse impact standpoint.

PTC 9’s forward speed is likely to aid in carrying tropical storm and hurricane force winds well inland. The map below shows roughly where, given the current track, tropical storm and hurricane force winds could extend. And that’s a huge area. Things get complicated on Florida’s east coast, including Jacksonville, as well as up toward Savannah where stronger winds are possible than in other inland areas near there.

The extension of hurricane force winds inland will depend on the intensity of the storm at landfall and its exact forward speed from there. But suffice to say this has the potential to be a destructive inland wind event too, extending from North Florida into much of Georgia and South Carolina and even parts of North Carolina.

In addition to the wind will be heavy rainfall, and that’s expected to cover a massive area of the Southeast.

We’ve seen worse rain events, but spatially, this is going to put a lot of places at risk of flash flooding.

Obviously, isolated tornadoes are a possibility along and to the right/east of where this storm goes.

The takeaway: Significant impacts from PTC 9/Helene are expected to extend well inland from the coast.

We will update this post today as we can if anything changes. We’ll aim to have another post out early this evening with the latest.

There are several common lines of inquiry when someone learns you’re vegan. These scripted responses will spare everyone a tedious conversation and might even make you less annoying at dinner parties (but probably won’t).

Where do you get your protein?

From peanut butter, seitan, and the ten thousand french fries I eat every time I join my non-vegan friends out for dinner.

Would you break your veganism if you were stranded on a desert island and had to choose between eating animals and starving to death?

No, I’d survive on a nutritious diet of moral self-righteousness. Okay, fine, and a single guppy that lived a full happy life and died of natural causes.

How long have you been vegan? It seems like just another food fad.

I’ve been vegan for [X] years, and vegetarian for [Y] years before that. But you’re right; it might still be just a phase, like my curtain bangs.

Don’t you miss cheese, though?

Yes. Next question.

Do you wear leather?

No, but if you meant in that way, I can assure you that pleather tastes pretty close to the real thing.

How do you make sure you’re getting proper nutrition?

I take vitamins, supplements, and antidepressants. That last one’s not a vegan thing, more just a living-in-the-world thing.

Are you opposed to fast food places that serve vegan food alongside meat?

No, because I prefer not to starve to death on road trips.

Is it really accurate to call yourself a vegan since you’ve probably accidentally eaten meat a bunch of times?

I try to avoid accidental acts of carnivorism, but when they happen, I don’t consider myself any less of a vegan—and the eight spiders I swallowed in my sleep last year will back me up.

Issued at 455 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:00:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:00:47 GMT

The Department of Public Safety and the Department of State Health Services are no longer following court orders to update someone's sex on driver's licenses and birth certificates. Transgender Texans and advocates say this could put their community at greater risk of being denied certain services and threaten their safety.

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

It’s five answers to five questions. Here we go…

1. My coworker was penalized for feedback from me, but I never said those things

Recently, during my coworker Wendy’s performance review with her management team, she was denied a raise and demoted on paperwork to someone “still developing” instead of being listed as “meets/exceeds expectations.” The reasons for this were: a low customer loyalty score for our location (not an individual low score — and the other person in Wendy’s position was still given a raise and significant praise from management despite having the same score and Wendy having seniority), and because she’s been reported for “poor communication on Slack.”

When Wendy asked for specific examples of this, management couldn’t give her any, but included my name along with two others as the sources of this. I have never complained about Wendy to management, especially not in regard to Slack. The other two coworkers listed no longer work here, but I worked with one of them long enough to know she wouldn’t complain to management about something like this either. Our job is an in-person job in a small location, and I’ve noticed Slack is not the preferred mode of communication for many in Wendy’s position.

I feel extremely uncomfortable that my name was dragged into this. I want to escalate this in some way, to say I have never had a problem with Wendy and that I don’t appreciate being used in false accusations, but Wendy is apprehensive about potential retaliation. What should we do? What should I do?

You shouldn’t do anything without Wendy’s permission, but ideally you’d talk to your manager or hers and say, “I’m concerned there’s been miscommunication somewhere. Wendy spoke with me about concerns she thought I’d expressed about her communication over Slack but, as I told her, I’ve never raised concerns about her work or her communication and don’t have any. It sounds like someone misunderstood something somewhere. How can I get this cleared up so that she’s not wrongly penalized for feedback I haven’t given?”

But also — what’s going on in your workplace? Are they disorganized enough that feedback gets warped like this? Are they targeting Wendy for some reason? If this is at all part of a pattern rather than a one-time mistake that gets quickly fixed, I’d be concerned about what’s going on there.

2. My junior coworker constantly interrupts me in meetings

My junior report (who was moved to another manager last year) constantly interrupts me in meetings. I’ve tried multiple approaches to get her to stop. She’s white and mid 40s, I’m Asian and mid 30s. I’ve noticed she only does this to me and I’ve even had other members on our team say they’ve noticed it too.

The approaches I’ve tried:
– Speak over her and keep going when she tries to interrupt. This works sometimes but sometimes it doesn’t.
– Stop her and tell her I’m not finished yet. This has worked a couple of times but not always.

Other approaches I’ve considered:
– Talk directly to her and ask her to be mindful of the interruptions.
– Talk to her manager and ask him to talk with her about this behavior.

Talk to her one-on-one and name what’s happening and what she needs to do differently. For example: “I’m guessing you don’t realize it, but you frequently interrupt me in meetings. I haven’t seen you do this to other team members, but it’s frequent when I’m speaking. Please wait for me to finish speaking before you start talking.”

If that doesn’t work, then yes, flag it for her manager. It’s a big deal to regularly be interrupting a colleague, especially a senior one, and especially after she’s been spoken to about it and told to stop.

And going forward, every time she interrupts you from now on, hold up your hand in a “stop” motion and say, “Please stop interrupting me and wait until I’m finished.” It will get pretty awkward pretty quickly for her if you’re consistent about doing it.

3. Can I ask to be fired sooner?

After 18 years at a company, I was recently surprised at my mid-year review with a rating that I’m not meeting expectations. It was followed with a 60-day PIP. Originally, I told my boss that despite feeling surprised, I’m 100% committed to making changes. Since then, I have realized that I no longer want to work there but need to be able to collect unemployment in the interim while I’m looking for another job so I can’t just resign.

I have a hard time pretending to do a bad job but my mental health is taking a toll. Is there a script for me to discuss with my boss ending the PIP earlier so that I can be let go sooner and then start collecting unemployment while looking for a new job?

In some cases you could say something like: “I appreciate you being candid with me about your concerns. I want to be candid in return that I’m not confident about my ability to meet your expectations and I don’t want either of us to invest further time in the process if it’s unlikely to work out. Would you be open to wrapping up the process earlier and letting me go with an agreement not to contest my unemployment benefits?”

4. We’re switching to unlimited PTO and I feel cheated

My company allows up to five vacation days to roll over each year.

We recently underwent a compensation study and one of the results is that we will now have “open PTO.” No more separating of sick days, vacation days, personal time, or floating holidays. This will begin when our 2025 fiscal year begins.

The issue that many of my colleagues and I have is that they told us this with three weeks until the fiscal year begins. I was going to roll over 36 hours — between my already scheduled vacation days and the vacation days of my coworker (one of us has to be in our office at all times), there is not enough time for both of us to use all the time we were going to roll over. There is no compensation offered for our leftover time. HR claims that because the rollover time is the first time that gets used up and now we are unlimited, we will use it in FY25. My objection is that it is FY24 compensation that I am not receiving. Could this have been handled better?

Yes. They could have given you more notice of the change — at least six months, not three weeks.

The thing is, when you have a specific amount of accrued time off (rolled over or not), there’s no debate about whether you’ve earned that time: it’s there, it’s yours, you can take it. (That’s an oversimplification, since of course it’s subject to workload, coverage, etc. — but no one disputes that you have the time on the books.) When you just have unlimited PTO, there can be more of a question around it. For example, if you get four weeks off per year, and this year you have those four weeks plus a week that rolled over from last year … well, you’ve definitely got five weeks on the books. But when you switch to unlimited PTO, it may be harder to justify taking five weeks in a single year.

You and your coworkers should press for a longer notice period before the change is made.

5. What does this email from a recruiter mean?

I’ve been in a painstakingly long interview process with a well respected organization in my field for a senior level position. I’ve done a phone screen, hiring manager interview, and panel interview (all virtual). It was posted in early June and I applied right away.

I just received a baffling email from the recruiter and I honestly can’t decide what to make of it: “Thank you for your patience. Our team decided to move two candidates forward that have more X experience to the next rounds for now. You remain a strong candidate and still under consideration. I can provide another update in the next couple of weeks.”

What gives? The job would be a huge step up for me, an almost $70k/year raise at minimum so it’s not shocking (although I’m disappointed) that I’m not a finalist, but why not just reject me? The dangling / stringing along at this point is an huge bummer. Appreciate any insight or if this is a common practice with more senior roles?

That message means: “You’re not currently one of our finalists, but you’re strong enough that we’ll come back to you if neither of the two people we’re currently talking to pan out.” It’s actually very transparent! It’s not stringing you along; it’s letting you know pretty candidly exactly what’s going on.

Read 6 remaining paragraphs | Comments

The post British Columbia 10-second advance notice earthquake warning hindered by 15-second ad for Instacart appeared first on The Beaverton.

The stop by the husband of presidential candidate Kamala Harris included a rally to boost local Democrats looking to flip seats in the Texas House.

Six Trump supporters were accused of intimidating a Biden campaign bus on a Texas highway four years ago.

METRO's board of directors last September approved the $10.5 million agreement with Canada-based PBSC Urban Solutions, a company that has bolstered successful bike share programs in New York, Chicago and Boston.

The city’s minimum wage will increase from $15 to $18 over the next two years. Retirees over the age of 60 will be able to retain city insurance for five years or until Medicare eligibility. 

Are your local vacation pics not generating enough hate online? Are you feeling stuck in a rut of angering only your neighbours and want to try getting yelled at by different cultures in exotic locales? If you have more money and time than you have shame, here are a few vacation spots for those looking […]

The post Top travel destinations for people who don’t care how much the locals hate them appeared first on The Beaverton.

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

A reader writes:

I am a stay-at-home mom of very young children. My husband works from home one day per week, occasionally two. When he works from home, he watches our baby while I take the older ones to and from school/preschool. Other than that, he works in our home office and I rarely see him for more than a few minutes at a time. My point is that he is definitely working when he works from home.

Except sometimes we have sex while the baby naps. I feel like this is fine! But we were laughing about it recently because, well, if someone left work to go have sex, I think we would all question their judgment. I can’t explain why I don’t think there’s anything unethical about this. Am I alone in that? It’s not like we can check with his boss to see if he’s fine with this. We can’t ask any of his coworkers if they do this too because then we’re just asking about people’s sex lives.

To be clear, I don’t really care even if his boss or colleagues did have a problem with it. It’s none of their business! Or is it? Because it’s during the work day? What are your thoughts on sex while working from home?

Oh.

Hmmm.

I don’t think you should be having sex during the work day. But in purely practical terms, I can’t argue that sex while working from home is all that different from doing laundry while working from home (and I never thought I would compare sex and laundry). The laundry standard is that if it only briefly takes you away from your work, you’re getting all your work done and done well, and you’re available when your team needs you, no one needs to know.

So I suppose it depends on whether those things are true. Is this a lengthy encounter or a brief one? Is he doing well at his job? Does he return to his desk to find people were trying to reach him while he was otherwise occupied or do people find him appropriately accessible?

If the sex doesn’t add up to any more time away than, say, a couple of coffee breaks and chats in the office kitchen, I can’t give you any good reason why it’s more improper. Obviously it’s improper if people know about it, but it’s the knowing that would be far more improper than the act itself.

And of course, if it’s his lunch break, that’s his own time and you may get it on with impunity.