At least 94 deaths in Kerr County had been confirmed as of Wednesday. More than 15 of the victims were from the Houston area. Some other local residents, including young girls attending Camp Mystic, were still considered missing.
At least 104 people are confirmed dead following catastrophic flash flooding that tore through Central Texas last week, with dozens more still missing — a toll that continues to rise as communities grieve and remember those who were lost.
A suburban mansion once home to NBA legend Michael Jordan is now available to rent on Airbnb, boasting seven bedrooms, 17.5 bathrooms, infinity pool, movie theater, cigar lounge, salon, full-size basketball court, and more, costing more than $100,000 for a seven-night stay. What do you think?
“For that price, you could live with Detlef Schrempf for a year.”
Greg Dobrez, Wine Swirler
“Yet another vacation rental that could have gone to a family of 35.”
A few times in the last few months, I think I have heard someone crying in the bathroom at my office. I don’t want to invade their privacy, but also don’t want to leave them to suffer or think that nobody cares.
It’s a large enough company that I don’t know and can’t guess who it is (it could be different people each time!), but there’s a fair chance I would recognize them by sight. For a lot of people it’s their first job out of college, it’s very demanding work, and there’s a lot of burnout. I have been there a long time, and I did almost get fired once, so if this coworker is crying about a work thing I might have good perspective to offer them.
If it happens again, should I say anything? “Hey, are you okay? Want to talk about it?” Or bring them a cup of water? Or just pretend nothing is happening?
I think, “Hey, are you okay? Can I help?” would be the perfect thing to say. So would bringing them some water and just knocking and letting them know you’re setting it outside the stall for them.
Some people will just want to be left alone, but a lot of people will appreciate someone noticing and being kind. And really, having someone clearly notice that you’re crying in the bathroom but just ignoring you could feel pretty terrible. It could also feel like a relief, in some situations and for some people. But of the two possibilities, “no one even cares what’s happening, even though I’m obviously upset” is a worse feeling than “agh, I wish they had pretended they couldn’t hear me.”
Obviously, don’t be pushy about it and if the person gives clear signs that they want to be left alone, respect that right away and give them privacy. But it’s kind to check on them.
In brief: Tropical Storm Chantal’s remnants brought record flooding to parts of North Carolina overnight. It will exit off to the north and east later today. More heavy rain is causing flooding issues in Texas again. And Saharan dust is choking the Atlantic for now. For those that rely on email subscriptions to the site, please see the bottom for changes taking shape today.
Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.
North Carolina Chantal flooding
Overnight, rains pounded portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia.
Rain totals ending this morning from the last 48 hours show as much as 7 to 10 inches parts of interior North Carolina between the Triangle and Triad. (NOAA NSSL)
The Eno and Haw Rivers in North Carolina are in record flooding territory as a result of the rains. The Haw River’s records go back to the 1970s and the record level of about 22.5 feet was set earlier this morning southwest of Durham near Bynum, NC.
A preliminary record flood on the Haw River southwest of Durham. (NOAA)
The Eno River just northwest of Durham absolutely obliterated the previous record by nearly 10 feet. Records appear to only go back to the 1980s, but there’s no questioning that this was a very impressive new record.
The Eno River broke its previous flood of record by nearly 10 feet outside Durham, NC. (NOAA)
Much like the flooding in Texas, this flooding in North Carolina while somewhat predictable escalated very late in the game forecast-wise. Compare the 48 hour rainfall forecasts using the probability matched mean product from NOAA’s HREF model below. The 00z run, what I was looking at yesterday while writing my post showed minimal risk of significant flooding rains. The 12z run, which was available a couple hours later? Much more adequate.
NOAA’s HREF model caught onto the rains late in the game but once it did, it did a very good job. (NOAA SPC)
The HRRR model also caught on late in the game too, though its performance actually worsened somewhat as the day progressed.
I think that the takeaway here is we had another event that showed us how model guidance in flash flood situations needs to be monitored religiously leading up to the event. If you are an end user of weather forecast information in Texas or North Carolina and you assumed the forecast was settled by 9 AM on the day of the nighttime event that caused historic flooding, you missed out on a ton of critically valuable information. Weather forecasting is so much better in 2025 than it ever has been. Our tools rarely miss something major at the end of the day. But they don’t always catch on 2 or 3 days ahead of time. But if you happen to use weather information to conduct your work or business or for public safety, it is absolutely critical that you monitor things closely leading up to any weather event. We can’t just assume anymore that it will be all’s well that ends well. And we can’t just check out on any given day.
Texas flooding continues
Another round of heavy rain impacted portions of Texas overnight, with upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rain falling in some small areas west of Killeen, farther north than the weekend’s rainfall.
Rainfall estimates for the last 24 hours ending this morning. (NOAA NSSL)
Rains are expected to continue through the day in spots. The overall weather pattern responsible for a lot of the rain and flooding is beginning to slowly unwind though, so as the week progresses, storminess should begin to ease up some.
Moderate risk (level 3/4) of flash flooding exists north and west of Kerrville in much of Hill Country today. (NOAA WPC)
Still the moderate risk for excessive rainfall is in place, as we still have some ingredients available for hefty rainfall. It is possible that heavy rains will disrupt recovery efforts, and all people in the region responding to Thursday night’s disaster should remain on guard for heavy rainfall and quickly changing conditions today.
Tropical Atlantic
Quiet in the Atlantic, with Chantal’s remnants continuing to lift northward up the Eastern Seaboard. Those will exit off the coast of New Jersey today and out to sea. Locally heavy downpours could occur in spots from the Chesapeake Bay into the Philadelphia and Trenton areas. A slight risk (2/4) for heavy rainfall exists there.
Forecast rain totals in excess of 4 inches are possible in Delmarva today through Wednesday from Chantal’s remnants and a humid, warm weather pattern. (Pivotal Weather)
Beyond Chantal I think the Atlantic looks quiet this week. We have a lot of Saharan dust in place, and that should help suppress any development. After this week, the next area to watch may be in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico next week. A handful of ensemble members and AI ensemble members from various model suites indicate some potential there in about 10 days or so. Nothing to worry about at this time.
Saharan dust is choking most of the Atlantic basin right now, which should help limit any tropical concerns over the next 7 to 10 days there. (University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies)
Last note, our housekeeping update:
We will be migrating our email newsletter over to the Substack platform today. If you currently subscribe to The Eyewall via email, your email should roll over to our Substack without you having to do anything. We understand a few people have various concerns about the Substack platform, and some of the content posted there by other writers. If you decide to unsubscribe from emails, we understand. But the benefits of this route outweigh the potential costs. The primary issue is that WordPress caps our email subscribers, and the process to manage an account is not user-friendly. For a site with a limited budget such as ours, this is the best way to ensure the continued delivery of an email newsletter with our content. We will still continue to post here at The Eyewall.com, but updates will not be sent via email from here.
Also: Nothing at all is changing with Space City Weather. So for our Houston readers, our site, email, and annual fundraiser is not changing! This only applies to The Eyewall.
We hope that this will offer us the flexibility to do more things, offer more options, more content, and a better overall user experience as time goes on. Thanks for your support!
Starting later this year, all American women will be required to have a Government-Assigned Life Coach (GALC) in order to maintain US citizenship.
According to America’s top scientists, Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan, women’s independent thinking has been officially declared the number one cause of all bad stuff in the country. To address this national crisis, we’ve developed groundbreaking technology that captures women’s thoughts and feelings and transforms them into brand sponsorships. In exchange for surrendering their inner lives, women will receive the thing they love most: a free tote bag from Target.
Why GALC now?
Women were invented by scientists in 1972 primarily for economic purposes: to purchase beauty products, binge true crime, and fuel the algorithm using bikini selfies captioned with song lyrics about liberation they were never meant to fully experience. For decades, their low self-esteem has been a key driver of the GDP.
By 2012, we had nearly succeeded in turning every woman into a brand.
But now? Women are healing. They’re refusing to explain themselves. Some have even stopped apologizing in emails.
We’ve tried everything to stop the spread of self-worth:
inventing the phrase “Live, Laugh, Love”
making “girl dinner” a personality
sexualizing math
rebranding South Korea as “The Giant Sephora”
changing the suggested size of butts every fifteen years
Nothing has worked.
At this emergency juncture, we are prepared to enforce mandatory participation in the GALC system, which is guaranteed to restore national order. Welcome to the future.
GALC Enrollment: For Your Safety and Ours
STEP 1: Visit galc.gov/portal/heal.
STEP 2: Create a username. (It may not include the words “cute,” “slay,” or “queen.”)
STEP 3: Choose a security question:
What would your therapist say about you?
What was the name of the pet you projected the most emotional baggage onto?
Who hurt you? (Be specific.)
After signing up, you may begin using your personal mantra. For example, “I am not a burden—I am a brand.”
Meet GOGGINS
Your GALC will be powered by GOGGINS, a revolutionary AI system created by Walton Goggins (the computer scientist, not the actor—although Goggins will be portrayed by the actor Goggins in the training video).
GOGGINS will track women’s emotions, thoughts, spending habits, hydration levels, and astrological charts in real time. These will be immediately uploaded to the government’s AI. This is good for America.
Weekly Self-Work Requirements
To maintain good standing, you must complete one hundred units of Reflective Inner Child work and post your progress every week. This includes:
crying selfies and/or shame spirals with voice-over
posts throwing shade at your therapist
receipts for the purchase of at least seven beauty products
voice notes to your GALC that start with “I’m just in a weird place right now”
Your GALC will then assess your current level of unworthiness and auto-generate a Glow Up Roadmap including:
suggested Botox procedures
a how-to guide on canceling social plans so you can practice manifesting
required outfit purchases that are all athleisure wear in one size too small
In time, GALC will ensure all women are too busy self-improving to form thoughts. If your GALC still doesn’t understand your inner child by week six, that’s on you.
To improve communication, you’ll be prompted to subscribe to additional wellness services. GALC has partnered with Tubi to support your emotional consumer journey. Each week, you’ll be granted one government-approved rom-com viewing with your GALC, followed by a debrief on what you’ve learned about love.
Non-Compliance Policy
Failure to meet GALC requirements will result in mandatory community service, which consists of spending time with a Government-Assigned Lonely Male (GALM) in your zip code. You will be allowed three strikes:
STRIKE 1: Accompany your GALM to the gym and agree with his reasons for “getting swoll.”
STRIKE 2: Accept a drink from your GALM and endure a ten-minute rant about how “women already have equal rights, because I just bought you this.”
STRIKE 3: Publicly state that Barbie was “overrated, actually.”
Your Role in Fixing the American Economy
Your GALC will be your spiritual guide and transformational guru, here to reconnect you with your divine purpose as a woman: buying products to fix yourself.
Through curated shame, vague encouragement, and relentless product recommendations, GALC will return women to their natural state of self-doubt and economic contribution.
Remember: You are not broken. You are a brand.
For support, please ask GOGGINS for a contact form.
America thanks you in advance for your healing journey.
If Zohran Mamdani does the inevitable and becomes mayor, and if he avoids deportation for committing the most tell-tale sign of a communist—using your hands to eat chicken over rice—New Yorkers might experience a cultural shift not seen since Jay-Z and Alicia Keys convinced the entire city that it could romanticize rent prices.
We’re talking about a full ideological rebranding of all five boroughs through rent freezing, free childcare, no longer allowing police to use their exceptional skills in racial profiling, and Trump’s ICE having to move to Hoboken to bully frat boys. You’ll be expected to know the difference between halal, Haram, and Hasan Minhaj. Landlords will no longer be able to afford matcha lattes, metro announcements will start with morning prayer rituals, and you will be asked the difference between infants, Fanta, and intifada before being served any spicy food.
While mainstream media is busy investigating the veracity of internet trolls on which race/ethnicity box Mamdani checked for his college application over a decade ago, we bring original, in-depth analysis on what Mamdani’s administration could mean for everyday New Yorkers, including proposed policies, promises, and rules that may or may not be enforceable under municipal code:
You need to know what halal means. Halal is interpreted in many ways by those who practice the faith. Some examples include strictly avoiding Fox News, EDM concerts, sharing AI-generated content, drinks with mushrooms in them, and pestering your friends to play pickleball on Saturdays. The last one was added circa 2020 AD, after extensive consultation with multiple imams and several annoyed late sleepers.
He supports rent freezes for all, especially for Mets fans. Zohran loves the Mets, and if you’re a Mets fan, you qualify for a special rent voucher—provided you attend every home game and boo the Yankees on command. This offer does not apply to landlords. If you’re a landlord trying to raise rent, Sharia law will be applied. No, I will not explain how, but it does mean you can’t order food from halal trucks.
Establishing the department of community safety. Mamdani plans to invest in city-wide mental health programs and crisis response. Instead of harassing people in need of support, police officers will now be trained to give directions and help carry that third Trader Joe’s bag for a block, so millennials don’t throw out their backs before turning fifty.
Free childcare support. While it means you no longer have to pay for your child’s education before elementary school, it also means they’ll attend a Montessori school where improv teachers guide them through the ABCs, workplace unionizing, and Friedrich Engels’s views on tenant rights. Your child will ask you whether Paw Patrol is just copaganda.
Fast free buses. This is actually bad news for us South Asians. Buses were our number one excuse for being late. We are screwed, and now must make it in time for trivia night and every zodiac-themed bracelet-making class. We just pray the C train doesn’t follow suit.
Progressive taxation. The 1 percent of New Yorkers who believe Whole Foods is superior to all other grocery stores will be taxed at a higher rate. Other high-risk groups for taxation include: individuals who take more than a minute to order their coffee, those who stare at Calvin Klein ads for an uncomfortable amount of time, and people who hoard excessive green space during movie nights at Bryant Park. Also, landlords who attempt to sound anticapitalist in order to relate to their tenants will be promptly evicted.
City-owned grocery stores. Imagine a grocery store where aisles just make sense (why is cayenne located in the international section and not in the spice section?), products don’t mysteriously disappear off the shelf just to tease customers (we know what you are up to, TJs), and you can buy produce at wholesale prices (this is not a joke). This is what Mamdani is promising, along with eliminating the loud, condescending cash register noises that make you question all your life’s decisions.
Mamdani’s administration could transform NYC from the city that never sleeps into one that unionizes, promotes gender-affirming care, and guarantees a minimum wage high enough to make Bezos sign a prenup with Sanchez—all served with a side of za’atar fries. And yes, the rats will have squatters’ rights.
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