Federal forecasters issued their first flood warning at 1:14 a.m. on July 4. Local officials haven’t shed light on when they saw the warnings or whether they saw them in time to take action.
In brief: The tropics remain calm, but we’re watching the Gulf next week — sort of. We have the latest on Texas flooding and some thoughts on mitigation. Also, flooding is possible in the Mid-Atlantic and New England today and/or tomorrow.
Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.
Tropical Atlantic
First off, there’s nothing at all to report in the tropical Atlantic today. We look quiet for the next week or so.
I think the next area to watch will probably be in the Gulf next week. A little piece of “energy” (or mid-level vorticity…spin in the atmosphere around 10,000 feet) may pinwheel from an area of weekend thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic, off the Southeast coast early next week, and into the northeast Gulf midweek.
Potential area of weak “spin” in the northeast Gulf next weekend. (Tropical Tidbits)
This would not be a highly likely pathway to development, but we have absolutely seen storms do this before, most notably in recent years probably Hurricane Barry back in 2019. The seeds for that storm were actually planted in Kansas with some thunderstorms that eventually arrived in the Gulf and spun into a storm that became 2019’s Barry. While Barry wasn’t a particularly strong storm it was loaded with moisture and ended up being the wettest on record for Arkansas and caused widespread flooding in Louisiana and over a half-billion in damage. So they can happen.
In this case, we will have to watch how this evolves in the coming days; it’s possible it ends up too close to land to develop, it ends up actually over land, it never emerges in the Gulf at all, or it ends up taking a farther south pathway to boost the odds of development. Current modeling suggests the “too close to land” scenario is most likely, but we’ll see. Either way, we have a long time to watch this, and it’s nothing to worry over today.
Texas flooding update
A lot of news coming out of Texas with respect to the impacts, response, and recovery to the Texas flooding catastrophe. I strongly recommend following The Texas Tribune’s coverage, as they know the state better than most and will have good quality information. I want to home in on one story about the Texas Senate declining to take up a bill that would have bolstered flood protection in the Hill Country and Flash Flood Alley. House Bill 13 would have provided about a half-billion dollars for numerous improvements to public safety communication, alerting, and sirens in places, similar to those that have tornado sirens. The bill was proposed by a GOP representative, Ken King from Canadian, TX, the area devastated by the Smokehouse Creek fire in 2024. There is one quote in particular that was made during the debate on this bill that I want to highlight.
Tony Tinderhort, an Arlington, TX Republican said this: “This shouldn’t be about anything other than the fact that it’s a half a billion dollars. This is probably one of the most simple votes we should be able to take today. It’s that this interoperability council is going to spend money to try and get these departments to be able to talk together.”
It’s easy to look at things in hindsight and become outraged, but importantly, I think this is a comment that speaks volumes about priorities among some legislators, not just in Texas but nationwide. First off, let’s be clear, this bill would not have prevented or mitigated this catastrophe in any way. It would not have been implemented until September. Secondly, even if the build out were completed, there is no way to know if it would have saved lives. Secondly, according to a January piece, Texas had a $28 billion surplus and $24 billion in the rainy day fund coming into this year. The proposed bill would have eaten up about 1.5 percent of the budget surplus.
When thinking of disasters, the easy thing to do is to throw up your hands and say “weather happens” and “bad things happen sometimes.” But time and time and time again it has been proven that preparedness and adequate ways to disseminate warnings save lives. Investing in preparedness is like investing in your health or home or whatever else you want to invest in. The phrase “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” originated from Benjamin Franklin, a relatively libertarian leaning individual that knew a thing or two about science and how the natural world works. That was almost 300 years ago. Much like Franklin’s legacy, it has stood the test of time. When we have leaders constantly badgering others about investing in preparedness because of sticker shock, the question has to be, what amount of damage or loss of life has to occur for them to get on board with improving societal preparedness? That’s an important question to ask representatives and ensure they’re looking out for their constituents and society and its best interest. This isn’t even a climate change conversation, it’s an every day one. It’s food for thought.
Flooding concerns this week
Much of the Mid-Atlantic is in a slight risk (2/4) for flash flooding today, with risks extending from Virginia into southern New England, including DC, Baltimore, Philly, and New York City.
A slight risk for excessive rains today extends from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. (NOAA WPC)
We should expect to see heavy thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the area. The combination of storms and very high atmospheric moisture levels will lead to the potential for excessive rainfall rates of 2 inches an hour. Flood watches are in effect for most of the slight risk region.
On Wednesday, the risk shifts to the south and east into mostly the Mid-Atlantic.
Wednesday’s rainfall risk is also slight (2/4) from North Carolina into southern New Jersey. (NOAA WPC)
Rainfall forecast totals from the probability matched mean product of the HREF model from NOAA are on the order of 1-2 inches area-wide with isolated pockets up to 4 inches in this general region. It’s in those isolated areas that flash flooding could be an issue.
HREF PMM precip forecast for the Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England showing lollipops of 2 to 4 inches in spots. (NOAA SPC)
Additional flooding risk exists in Arkansas and Missouri today, where radar is active with showers and storms already.
My legal nonprofit shares a building with 3-4 other organizations. We lease 50% of the building (spread across three floors), and the rest split the remaining space. Building management recently hired a new security guard with an odd habit: he will sometimes stand directly next to the entrance door, and hit the automatic door button when someone approaches.
I assume he views this as being courteous/opening the door for people. The problem is that the automatic door opener is VERY slow, and once the button is pushed you have to wait for the door to open (it can’t be pulled open manually to speed up the process). It is driving me insane! I am often rushing in and out of the building to court, and when he does this I have to stand and wait to go through the door. I have had to stand outside in the rain, or in the blazing 90 degree sun, as we both watch the door slowly creak open.
I’ve explained to the guard that I appreciate the gesture, but that it actually slows things down quite a lot and I’d prefer to just open the door on my own. He smiled and said “yeah, okay,” but this has had no effect. If he sees me approaching, he will sometimes rush to hit the door button before I can get to the door. Is there anything else I can do to put a stop to this? Is there a way to be more assertive, without being rude to a very kind man?
I was wondering if his management might have instructed him to open the door for people and he feels he can’t overrule that, but you said he only does it sometimes … so that may not be the case.
In any case, since you’ve asked him to stop and he’s continued to do it anyway, you could try asking him once more. If last time you framed it more as “you don’t need to do this,” try framing it as “please do not do this” — it’s a subtle but real difference. Sometimes people take “you don’t need to do X” as “don’t feel obligated to do X if you’d rather not” and you need to spell out more clearly that you actively want them to stop doing X. So: “I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear last time, but please do not open the door for me. It makes it take a lot longer to enter since the automatic opener is so slow.”
If that doesn’t work, talk to the building management — not to get him in trouble, but framed as “I think he intends to be helpful, but it’s making things much less convenient, could you ask him to stop?”
2. Reheating fish in the office microwave
I’m somewhat new to an office job, and I may have other similar jobs in the future.
You’ve mentioned before that offices can have policies against strong-smelling foods as long as they are enforced appropriately and equally. I also know that when people do not clean up after themselves, the eventual smell that comes from rotting food or dirty dishes is bad regardless of what the food was, and that you can largely eliminate bad smells by just cleaning up after yourself.
The people in my office are good about doing their own dishes, but I’ve heard horror stories from relatives over the years about their workplace lunch rooms. I’ve worked in other non-office settings where people leave takeout food and drink containers sitting around for days. Ew.
So, here’s my question: If someone heated up fish for lunch but was prompt about cleaning up, would that really be so bad? Bacon is extremely popular in most of the US, but also has a strong smell that I personally find repulsive (and probably, so do some vegetarians and vegans, but I rarely hear anyone cautioned against heating up bacon in the office microwave).
It’s a fair question! What smells we consider gross is very culturally influenced, and for whatever reason we as a culture seem to have decided that the smell of cooked bacon is more palatable than the smell of cooked fish.
With fish, the issue is the smell that emanates from it while cooking, and cleaning up promptly wouldn’t affect that. When you microwave fish, the blast of high heat intensifies the fishy odor (this is science!), in a way that American culture tends to find especially unpleasant.
3. Coworker is upset that I talked to her manager about her leaving me half-finished work
I was out of work (scheduled PTO) this last Friday and the person assigned to cover my work left a bunch of half finished tasks for me to do this coming Monday. This has been a reoccurring issue and nicely speaking with her one on one never changed anything.
I reached out to her supervisor and politely asked how to proceed with working on these half done tasks as I didn’t have the info to do them. Her supervisor simply forwarded my email and a lukewarm message about not leaving half done work.
Coworker then emailed me several consecutive times passive-aggressively telling me I should have spoken with her directly to absolve the issue. What do I do now? Do I engage with her directly or continue to deflect to her supervisor?
“Hi! I’ve tried to talk with you about it in the past, but since it’s continued to be an issue I wanted to loop in Jane to see if we can figure out a way to solve it. If you and I can handle it directly ourselves and ensure it doesn’t keep happening when I’m out, that’s great with me — I just want to get it solved.”
Also, the next time you’re going to be out and your coworker is assigned to cover for you, talk to her manager ahead of time and ask if she can proactively make sure your coworker doesn’t do the same thing again.
4. I was the only one stuck working on the 4th of July
I’m writing to you on the 4th of July. My industry’s standard is to work holidays. A few days ago, my team got a surprise notice that our work wasn’t needed, and we could have the holiday.
My supervisor, Craig, told us as a group that he would offer our services to an earlier team, but that my coworkers and I were otherwise free. In these situations, the earlier team’s supervisor almost always tells us we’re good to sign off for the day.
To my surprise, when I clocked in virtually this morning to check, the shift supervisor, Dana, said that I would be working a full day for her team last-minute. I wasn’t thrilled, but what’s really upset me is that I was the only person from my team who ended up working at all. When I followed up with Dana, she said Craig had only offered my services, and that he explicitly told her I was the only person available to work today and that my colleagues Sarah and Mike were not available.
I’m not sure why this would be: last-minute holidays are non-existent in my industry, and my coworkers said as recently as yesterday that they were scheduled for today. I have a positive working relationship with Craig, and thought of him as pretty fair before this, but I know he’s closer to these other coworkers by virtue of knowing them longer.
Am I right to be upset? Is it appropriate to follow up with Craig and ask what happened, or should I let this go? How should I address it? I tend to keep my nose down and not question my supervisor, but I’m pretty upset about being given a holiday, just to have it taken away last-minute.
It’s possible that there’s more to this than you know, like that Sarah and Mike got sick or had last-minute emergencies or had some other legitimate reason for not being available and that by the time Craig talked to Dana that morning, you were indeed the only person who could work.
Regardless, it’s reasonable to ask Craig about it. Just don’t be confrontational; go into the conversation assuming there might be something reasonable you don’t know about, not that you were intentionally screwed over. For example: “Can I ask you about what happened on the 4th of July? I had thought Sarah, Mike, and I were all available to other teams if needed, like normally happens on holidays, but then Dana said she was told I was the only person available that day. Did something change in how we’re handling holidays?”
5. Should I opt out of having my resume screened by AI?
I recently saw this disclaimer (copied below) on a job I was applying for. There was a box to check to opt out of having your resume reviewed by AI, but I decided not to check it because I didn’t want to potentially ding myself, but I’m curious if you or your readers have any experience with how opting out might impact an application.
“This employer may use an artificial intelligence algorithm to provide an initial comparison of an applicant’s education, experience, and skills against the education, experience and skill requirements in the job description. This analysis produces a Profile Relevancy score, which is intended to be one of many factors that a potential employer will review in making its interview decisions; there are no cut off scores and all applications are visible to employers. The Profile Relevancy score for applicants who opt out will be listed as ‘Not Available.’”
They’re offering to let you opt out because some jurisdictions require that companies using AI in screening notify applicants and allow them to opt out from it (and more states are considering similar laws). No score isn’t the same as a low score, and opting out is unlikely to ding you (at least for now).
That said, I’m not so sure it’s any different from the automated systems some companies have been using to process applications for years now. I’d be much more inclined to opt out of an actual interview with AI (which is a thing that is starting to happen in this dystopian hellhole).
News Feed, Facebook – Susan Miller, an avid AI-generated Facebook user added by Meta to socialize with people and mine their data, realized a baby photo she was looking at was actually just AI-generated. “It was a cute photo, almost too cute,” said Susan, as she shook her head almost like a human would but […]
While the storms’ full environmental impacts may take weeks to assess, Austin-area officials warn they could be serious and will include a rise in the city's mosquito population.
Residents say Kerr County’s use of CodeRED alerts was sporadic and inconsistent. Local officials have not answered questions about when and how they utilized the system, which has been in place since 2009.
Kelly Kenten Giles, 64, is accused of providing false information on his application and petition to run for the Randall County Republican Party Chair seat.
“Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem slammed the ‘ancient system’ used to warn the public of potential weather threats — and vowed the Trump administration plans to ‘fix’ the technology… Sitting next to Gov. Greg Abbott, Noem was asked why the National Weather Service’s alerts about the heavy rainfall and flash flooding [in Texas] were ‘delayed,’ and said the situation was inherited.” —New York Post
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As Texas begins to recover from last week’s catastrophic flooding, the Trump administration would like to reassure Texans that Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to improve the National Weather Service’s outdated alert system. That’s why, as part of the DOGE cuts five months ago, we fired everyone at NOAA and replaced them with one guy named Noah.
It may seem counterintuitive to promise to divert more resources into weather prediction and emergency alert systems while simultaneously diverting funding away from weather prediction and emergency alert systems, to the point where America’s entire meteorological apparatus is being run by one recent college grad on his laptop. But, when it comes to improving weather alerts, we can confidently say we have our best guy working on it, because we have our only guy working on it.
If you think one guy working on a 2019 MacBook Air can’t give weather updates to the entire country, think again. The problem with the old NOAA, like all government agencies, was the logistical challenge of coordinating between hundreds of employees across dozens of field offices. The new Noah doesn’t have that problem, because he’s just one dude sitting alone on his living room couch in his underwear, lathered in 5 percent discounted Trump cologne.
And sure, the new Noah may not be able to keep track of every weather system on a granular level. But at least he doesn’t have to jump through any bureaucratic hoops. He can view a real-time satellite map of the US and quickly determine, roughly, which swaths of the country are currently experiencing heavy rainfall. Then he can shout those alerts at the top of his lungs from the window of his apartment. What Americans do with that information is ultimately up to them.
President Trump’s vow to improve emergency alerts isn’t a hollow promise meant to placate people until they inevitably turn their attention to the next scandal. He really believes Noah is going to get the job done. Just as soon as his computer stops crashing because it doesn’t have enough RAM to run a global weather simulation. A few trips to the Apple Store ought to do the trick.
Of course, some sacrifices will have to be made. Reducing NOAA down to one guy named Noah means eliminating the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. Some people might think that if multiple parts of the country now get thousand-year floods every five years, it might be a sign that the climate has changed. And some people might think that’s worth studying so we can better understand how to prepare for that new reality.
Noah isn’t one of those people, because we made it very clear when we hired him that he doesn’t get paid to think.
That’s not the only operational change that will have to be made. We originally hired Noah to run both NOAA and FEMA. However, in the end, we decided he had too much on his plate to single-handedly run two federal agencies. So, instead, we’ve decided to phase out FEMA entirely. The states, Texas included, are more than capable of handling their own emergency relief efforts by themselves. I’m confident Governor Abbott will be able to manage any future weather catastrophes just as effectively as he handled that huge freeze a few years ago.
So, ignore the critics who say that replacing NOAA with Noah will leave Americans less prepared for extreme weather events. And pay no attention to the claim that we gutted NOAA to make room in the budget for tax cuts that will mostly go to people who can already afford to build themselves climate-resilient doomsday bunkers. These cuts aim to streamline our weather alert systems by consolidating them under Noah’s capable hands. He’ll keep Americans safe.
Just as long as they’re within earshot of his apartment. If you hear Noah scream, head for the hills.
I am in a niche entertainment field and have a fairly high-profile job within that field. This means that what I do or say online is relatively visible and, for better or worse, carries some weight, at least in my very small area.
Lately, some of my colleagues have taken to posting their thoughts about all the *waves hands helplessly* going on in our country (U.S.) right now. I post every once in a while about something, but I choose those posts carefully and strongly limit what I choose to put on social media. I do work in my community for causes I care about, and I go to protests when I can, but I am not very public about a lot of my personal views online.
Lately, though, many people in my field, including colleagues with jobs that have comparable or higher visibility, have begun to publicly excoriate those of us who have chosen to be more selective with our social media presence. They say that we have a platform and therefore a responsibility to speak out, as we will be listened to more than others and our words will carry more weight. They say that people who don’t choose to do this are valuing their own careers more than our moral responsibility to speak out, that we “will not be forgiven” and history will look poorly on us. These declarations are usually followed by hundreds of likes and comments praising the poster’s bravery and expressing disappointment and disgust with people who are not courageous enough to do the same. Some comments are from people I work with, as well as contractors I have hired. I have not been specifically named, but I can only assume as someone who is selective with my social media that I am among them.
In my view, there is a performative aspect to all this, as well as a lack of nuanced thinking regarding people’s work situations. In my case, while I am in a position of relative power in my field, I do not have safeguards on my job. I make just enough money to live modestly but comfortably, and everything I do reflects on my organization. My contract is not long-term. I can, in fact, be fired if I do something that my board feels reflects badly enough on the organization to warrant it. I think this is actually way more common than people understand, and I feel that it is really easy to look at people like me, assume my career and living situation is totally safe, and that I am a coward for not posting frequently on social media about various causes. The reality though is that if I lose my job, I would lose my home. And in my field, where jobs are scarce, I couldn’t just interview for another. So while I do speak out to the extent I feel comfortable, I do also consider my livelihood in the process.
I guess my question is whether this makes sense, or if I have my priorities skewed. I do recognize that there is another side to this coin; being raised Jewish, I know deeply the consequences of not speaking out until it’s too late. Am I being one of those people? How do you balance speaking out against injustice with the very real dangers of losing one’s job and being in a compromised situation? Or is this exactly the kind of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place?
I do think there’s a moral obligation to speak up if what’s happening around you is wrong and you are positioned to act against it.
But if anyone is arguing that posting on social media is at the top of the list of most important actions someone could take, that’s absurd. So is the belief that if you’re not posting on social media, you must not be doing anything else that matters (including things that matter a lot more than posting on social media).
And yes, posting on social media can come across as performative … and will often only reach an echo chamber of people who already share your views anyway. The effort it takes to do that is pretty damn low, particularly compared to the effort it takes to do things that are likely to have much more of an impact, like lobbying legislators, organizing/attending protests, writing letters to the editor, speaking at town halls, participating in rapid response networks, helping voters get to the polls, showing up at school board and city council meetings, volunteering with groups that provide legal aid, health care, and food assistance, and on and on.
In fact, if you look at the organizations spearheading resistance movements right now, posting on social media appears at the top of exactly none of the manylistsofthings they’re ask people to do to help (for that matter, it doesn’t appear anywhere on most of them).
And that’s before we get into the issues you mentioned of people needing to make their own decisions about what they safely can and can’t do without jeopardizing their ability to support themselves and their families.
I’m not trying to discourage anyone from posting on social media if that’s what they feel called to do. We need people speaking up in all venues and in ways that they’re inspired by and well positioned to do. But I’d take 10 Oskar Schindlers or Irena Sendlers over 10,000 prolific posters on Twitter.
Ultimately, everyone needs to take their own moral inventory and decide if they’re doing enough and if they will regret in the future not doing more. But no one deserves to be excoriated for staying out of it on social media.
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