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30 Mar 10:13

Phil Sandifer's Hugo Ballot

by Phil Sandifer

Let me start by making something as clear as I possibly can.

This is not a slate. These are not recommendations. If you submit a Hugo ballot that looks exactly like this you are a deeply lame human being who should feel bad about yourself.

That said, I maintain my position that talking openly about our Hugo preferences and thoughts is the best way to combat attempts to hijack the Hugos while we wait for E Pluribus Hugo to pass in August. And probably beyond that, because frankly, it’s just a good idea to have a public conversation so that more casual fans who want to play the Game of Rockets can do so.

So here we go, with selected commentary. Retro Hugos will be done another day.

 

Best Novel

The Fifth Season (N.K. Jemisin)

Easily the best of the pack here. Really hoping Patreon backers pick it for a bonus essay. This is a genuine masterpiece with a last line almost as astonishing as its first.

The Dark Forest (Cixin Liu)

Better than the first volume, as I’ve said, and the first volume was a perfectly acceptable Hugo winner.

The Vorrh (Brian Catling)

I’ve been switching this and Seveneves back and forth repeatedly, and may continue to do so as the voting deadline approaches. Or maybe I’ll drop the next one.

The Shepherd’s Crown (Terry Pratchett)

I admit this as a ridiculously sentimental pick that would not be on my ballot were it not the author’s last book. Still, a Hugo ballot without it feels unimaginable to me.

The Water Knife (Paolo Bacigalupi)

Brutally materialist SF.

 

Novella

Chasm (Nick Land)

More interesting and compelling right-wing science fiction than literally anything on the ballot last year. The failure of the Puppies to nominate Phyl-Undhu last year is really the best demonstration available of how, much like “Men’s Rights Advocates” do not actually advocate for the rights of men so much as attack women, they do not actually advocate for a right-wing literature so much as complain that people enjoy different books than them. I mean, Land’s even a blithering racist. What more could they possibly want?

Witches of Lynchford (Paul Cornell)

As a Paul Cornell fan who eagerly awaited the release of No Future, it’s thrilling to see him killing it in the mainstream.

Binti (Nnedi Okorafor)

I went looking for some compelling afrofuturism, because this seemed like a really good year to honor it. Man did I find it.

The Sorcerer of the Wildeeps (Kai Ashante Wilson)

Rolling in the Deep (Mira Grant)

 

Novelette

An Evolutionary Myth (Bo-Young Kim)

Stumbled on this late while trawling the Hugo Nominees Wikia for a fifth choice, and was absolutely blown away by it. Easily my pick of the five.

Elektrograd: Rusted Blood (Warren Ellis)

The Dusty Hat (China Mieville)

The Corpse Archives (Kameron Hurley)

The Long Goodnight of Violet Wild (Catherynne M. Valente)

 

Short Story

Pocosin (Ursula Vernon)

Another category with a clear and unquestionable frontrunner for me, this is one of my favorite authors at her best. You can fairly complain that Vernon has written this exact story before. It doesn’t matter; this is one of her best.

Ghost Champagne (Charlie Jane Anders)

The Goat Variations (Jeff VanderMeer)

Women at Exhibition (E. Lily Yu)

It’s About Ethics in Revolution (Kameron Hurley)

Reader, I loled.

 

Related Work

Guided by the Beauty of Their Weapons (Phil Sandifer)

TARDIS Eruditorum (Phil Sandifer)

I won’t lie, I think both of them are the equal of anything that’s won in this category in recent memory. I’m also hopelessly biased. Nevertheless, i’m nominating them. That said, the Hugos are, by design, a popularity contest, and I doubt I’m popular enough. Seriously, don’t copy my ballot exactly.

The Fellowship: The Literary Lives of the Inklings (Philip and Carol Zaleski)

You’re Never Weird on the Internet (Felicia Day)

In a quantum superposition with Warren Ellis’s Cunning Plans. I probably enjoyed the Ellis more, but in a category long on my own idiosyncrasies due to my two self-noms I decided to err on the side of popular taste. Probably.

Invisible 2 (Edited by Jim C. Hines)

 

Graphic Story

Questionable Content (Jeph Jacques)

Doesn’t look like there was a new print collection of this, so it would just be for the 2015 strips, but it’s been a consistently amazing comic, and a list that includes it, Ms. Marvel, XKCD, Digger, and Saga would make me happy.

The Wicked + The Divine Vol 2: Fandemonium (Kieron Gillen and Jamie McKelvie)

It’s WicDiv; easily my favorite comic series.

Bitch Planet Vol 1: Extraordinary Machine (Kelly Sue DeConnick and Vallentine De Landro)

This is not a category where I’m comfortable saying I have a clear frontrunner - these are just too good a set of five - this is certainly the one I am most invested in seeing on the ballot.

Crossed +100

A properly surprising Alan Moore comic, in that I don’t think anyone expected a fiercely intelligent, genuinely terrifying sci-fi/zombie story from him in 2015. He gave us one anyway.

Injection

A late addition that caused me to regretfully nudge Ms. Marvel off, this is Warren Ellis tackling accelerationism, with a direct parody of the CCRU from which Nick Land emerged. Beautiful and intelligent and vibrantly 2015, and also I just have no idea which of the three volumes of Ms. Marvel to drop in 2015 to pick.

 

Dramatic Presentation (Long Form)

Undertale

Hat tip to Vox Day for the realization/reminder that video games are eligible for Best Dramatic Presentation. Although his selections are an underwhelming set of mediocrities, it’s a good idea, and 2015 did bring us a SF/F game whose contributions to storytelling are going to be remembered and discussed for decades; a game that’s already been voted the greatest ever. Consider this my one outright recommendation - nominate Undertale for a Hugo. Please.

Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell

I wish people would nominate whole seasons of TV more in this category. This is an obvious one, being a discrete and single tale over seven hours.

Ex Machina

Unequivocally the best sci-fi film of the year.

Jessica Jones Season 1

I can’t imagine nominating a Netflix series in any other category than long form.

Mad Max: Fury Road

Conspicuously edging out both Star Wars and The Martian. Notably, it’s an astonishingly good year for science fiction when neither of those films make your Hugo ballot.

 

Dramatic Presentation (Short Form)

The Zygon Invasion/The Zygon Inversion

Heaven Sent/Hell Bent

Two nominees from Doctor Who, but in my defense, it remains the best science fiction/fantasy show on television by a mile.

Hardholme

I almost considered Game of Thrones for long form, as its real genius this year lay in taming Martin’s two worst books, but this episode was simply too good to pass up nominating, and long form was awfully crowded.

Blackstar music video

David Bowie is eligible for a Hugo. This is not a statement that will ever be true again (“Lazarus” isn’t SF/F). Seriously, an episode of The Flash or something edging this off the ballot would be as appalling as Annie Hall beating Star Wars for the Oscar.

John Scalzi is Not a Very Popular Author and I Myself am Quite Popular audiobook

Cause it’s funny.

 

Editor (Long Form)

Liz Gorinsky

Beth Meacham

Patrick Nielsen Hayden

Lee Harris

David G. Hartwell

One of several categories in which my selections were constructed partially on the logic that the people Vox Day screwed out of Hugos last year should get another bite at the apple. Hartwell was not in the top five of the screwed, but given his recent passing it felt right to put him on. Yes, I know he refused the nomination for several years. But he can’t do that anymore, now can he?

 

Editor (Short Form)

John Joseph Adams

Neil Clarke

Ellen Datlow

Jonathan Strahan

Sheila Williams

 

Professional Artist

Jamie McKelvie

Fiona Staples

J.H. Williams III

Julie Dillon

John Picacio

Three comics artists of the sort who don’t get recognized in this category as often as they should, two safe pick perennials.

 

Semiprozine

The Book Smugglers

Uncanny Magazine

Apex Magazine

Lightspeed

Strange Horizons

A mixture of last year’s contenders and places that published stuff I liked this year.

 

Fanzine

The Drink Tank

Lady Business

A Dribble of Ink

Banana Wings

File 770

 

Fancast

Rachel and Miles X-Plain the X-Men

Strong favorite of the picks in which I am not hopelessly biased.

Verity!

Pex Lives

The obvious compromise candidate: a leftist podcast that’s had Vox Day on it.

The Coode Street Podcast

The Skiffy and Fanty Show

 

Fan Writer

Alexandra Erin

Jack Graham

Jane Campbell

Richard Jones

For his astonishingly good reviews of Phonogram and his equally brilliant Have Them Fight God Tumblr.

George R.R. Martin

His not-a-blog contained what was probably the most materially important anti-Puppy writing, even if I think he took a hopelessly compromised moderate position. Also, it would be funny.

 

Fan Artist

James Taylor

Cover artist for all Eruditorum Press books, but paid low enough that this is the right category for him.

Spring Schenhuth

Ninni Aalto

Steve Stiles

Brad W. Foster

 

The John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer

Andy Weir

Not thrilled that he’s on Vox’s slate, obviously, but what do you want? The phrase “deserves a Hugo” is problematic in many ways, but this award is famously not a Hugo, and it’s frankly unimaginable that Weir wouldn’t get it.

Alyssa Wong

Kelly Robson

Matt Wallace

Scott Hawkins

27 Feb 16:03

Day 5531: Brexit is for the Faeries

by Millennium Dome
Monday:


Featured on Liberal Democrat Voice

Once Upon A Time…

"I assume also that no great power would shrink from its responsibilities ... if that country from a perverse interpretation of its insular geographical position, turns an indifferent ear to the feelings and fortunes of continental Europe, such a course would, I believe, only end in it becoming an object of general plunder.

"So long as the power and advice of England are felt in the Councils of Europe, peace I believe will be maintained, and maintained for a long period."

Margaret Thatcher, quoting Disraeli, last time we had a referendum on Britain in Europe.

Britain + Europe

The Brexit Brigade LURVE their FAERY Stories.

They are already pushing three MYTHS about what this referendum is about.

MYTH #1: "Who runs Britain"

(And I am already sick to the top of my trunk of Conservatory MPs who voted AGAINST fairer votes and voted AGAINST reforming the unelected House of Lords sitting pretty in their SAFE SEATS and having the GALL to tell us that the problem with Europe is "we cannot kick them out"!)

MYTH #2: "We would have freedom to trade"

(The leave campaign say that they want Britain to be free to make trade treaties with whoever we like… and they want to begin by pulling out of the largest free-trade area on the planet. Does this make ANY sense WHATSOEVER?)

MYTH #3: "Remain are SCAREMONGERING (nudge nudge, fear the immigrants)"

(Mr Farrago cannot open his mouth without scaremongering about Turkey, or about "500 million people with the right to come to live in Britain" – clue: 70 million of them are ALREADY HERE: they're called "the British"; Michael Gove – Mr Balloon's Smeagol – raises the spectre of razor wire across Europe as though that's a product of working together and not a symptom of the very nationalism with which he's flirting; and how many times do we hear the pitiful excuse from a country that is 92% undeveloped country "we're too crowded, we can't take any more"? Scare, scare and more scare.)

Pied Parper


So since they are all so KEEN on FABLES and PARABLES, let me tell you a story too. Spoilers: it has a HAPPY ENDING.

Long ago, but not that long, there was a WAR and EVERYONE LOST. And in the ruins that remained, friends and enemies alike came together and decided to try something, a very – I might say – British idea of making it easier to trade together.

Because, quite a lot of the time, people who trade with each other don't fight with each other. Trade brings prosperity to both sides and with prosperity comes peace. Business is good for peace and peace is good for business.

I say that's a very British idea because Free Trade was sort of at the heart of the dispute between the Liberals and the Conservatories i.e. between Mr Gladstone and Disraeli over the Corn Laws; and was sort of at the heart of the conflict between the British Empire and Napoleon (grossly to oversimplify four-hundred years of history).

And because protectionism and nationalism and the MYTH of "destiny" had done so EXTREMELY very badly in the years of the Great Depression that led to the War.

So the idea was actually a very simple one. It started with COAL and STEEL and the idea was that customers for coal and for steel should be able to pay the same price for the same stuff wherever they were.

That meant getting rid of trade barriers between countries.

But also, making sure that people on both sides played by the same rules, rules like how long it was safe for people to work so you couldn't undercut your competitors by paying slave wages or working dangerously long hours; or rules saying what the measurements should be measured in, so you couldn't short change the customer by having a slightly shorter "inch" or a slightly lighter "pound".

There have been "weights and measures" rules since the time of Bad King John. In fact, one of the reasons he got CALLED "Bad" King John by the barons is that the barons didn't like him going about the place stopping the business of putting a thumb on the weighing scales and shaving the gold off the coins.

So Europe's rules are about FAIRNESS to CUSTOMERS.

Now, it's a bureaucracy and bureaucracies grow rules like topsey, and not all of them always make sense, even more so when you take them out of context.

And sometimes – quite a LOT of times in fact – a "rule" from Europe is more of a GUIDELINE in Brussels but becomes gold-plated, copper-bottomed, red-taped LEGISLATION as it passes through the British Civil Service and the Houses of Parliament, but they still blame all the finicketty details because "Europe".

And sometimes people just MAKE THINGS UP (like the infamous MYTH of the STRAIGHT BANANA – but there ARE rules to protect banana buyers from ROTTEN bananas, but that sounds too much like GOOD news).

We PERPLEX our friends in Europe with our attitude to the rules. We make them EXTRA HARD, and then COMPLAIN about them. But STICK to them like glue. We need to RELAX, UNCLENCH a bit. Be a bit more, well, EUROPEAN.

Missing Out


Let us take an example: the Tampon Tax. It is said that we cannot remove the VAT from ladies' tampons because "Europe".

Well, the short answer is of course we can. No other country would be so RIGID.

Things get redesignated all the time. If Marks & Spencer can get a teacake redesignated as a cake, it is not beyond the wit of a Minister of the Crown to redesignate a tampon as an essential. And obviously we should do so.

But more broadly, it comes back to that business of FAIRNESS for the CUSTOMER. You want your customers to be able to compare prices wherever they go in Europe. So you want (roughly) the price of things that are basically the same to BE basically the same. So if there's a sales tax that is part of the price, you want that to be basically the same too.

Now good old Blighty didn't HAVE a general sales tax when we joined the (then) EEC (although there was a purchase tax on certain "luxury" goods). So a part of our negotiated conditions for entry was that we would introduce the broad-based Value Added Tax or VAT.

BUT, we negotiated a GOOD deal – VAT rates across Europe tend towards the 20%-25% rate, and Britain was allowed not only a LOWER rate (10% when we started, but of course it's gotten up to 20% now) but also some substantial exemptions, in particular for FOOD. Other countries have LOWER rates of sales tax on food, but no other European country has ZERO tax on food.

The Quid Pro Quo for this deal was that we would only ever move our VAT rates TOWARDS the European average. So the VAT rate only goes UP and not down (except in emergencies like when the economy went through the floor at the end of the last Labour government's time).

So we could not GENERALLY lower the VAT rate, or create broad new exemptions, but ONLY because we AGREED (and signed a TREATY to say so) that it was FAIRER to CUSTOMERS if the sales tax rates across all of Europe generally converged to the same level, so that everyone knew they were getting the same deal.

Gove takes the VAT rule out of context to make out it's some matter of HIGH PRINCIPLE that we have lost POWER over our taxes. When in truth we made a CHOICE that more fairness to customers was worth a bit less power over taxes. In other words we USED that tax power, rather than HOARDED and WASTED it, the way Smeagol horded and wasted the precious ring.

Let's take another example: Google's Tax Bill. Everyone seems to think that Google's tax bill is not terribly fair. But the REASON that they are able to shuffle their taxes around – do the so-called "Double Irish" – is because the Republic of Ireland chooses (and is able) to set it's Corporation Tax rate at 3%, so large companies are tempted to relocate their European offices and (theoretically) the profits they make to Dublin.

That unfairness is a consequence of NOT setting an agreement among the members of Europe that we will keep Corporation Taxes (broadly) in line. That is the sort of UNFAIRNESS that Brexit will ENCOURAGE. It is the "race to the fluffy bottom". And the only winners are the BIG COMPANIES, not individuals, not small or even middle-sized companies, but only the giants that can easily move countries. And of course the sorts of people who end up on the BOARDS of those companies. (Not looking at ex-ministers. No wait, that's EXACTLY who we should be looking at.)

Now we COULD pull out of Europe and try to compete with Ireland on Corporation Tax… so long as you don't mind cutting a further THIRTY-THREE BILLION out of the budget, pretty much the ENTIRE spend on EDUCATION, say, or two-thirds of the DEFENCE BUDGET. The sort of cuts that would make even Master Gideon wince. A little.

Or we could stay IN Europe and work together to make corporates like Google pay their taxes more fairly, and get Ireland to play nice too.


Is Europe UNDEMOCRATIC? Yes, but less so than BRITAIN – the Commission are appointed by elected governments (unlike the British secret Civil Service); the Council of Ministers are the representatives of those elected governments (unlike the British Cabinet, who are mostly old Etonian chums of the Prime Monster); the Parliament of Europe is elected by a proportional system (unlike the British Parliament at Westminster where the Conservatories have an illegitimate majority of 12 with 37% of the vote and Mr Farrago has no representation at all – given that his one MP cannot hardly bear to even talk to him, let alone be in the same leave campaign.)

Could Europe be MORE democratic? Yes, we could have more powers for the Parliament to approve commissioners and initiate legislation but only if the Kippers and Conservatories stop BLOCKING it. But equally, our MEDIA could stop being so PAROCHIAL and give the European Parliament the SAME coverage as the Westminster one – that's the KEY way to make people feel more informed and involved. Mr Farrago only gets away with NOT DOING HIS DAY JOB because no one sees that he's NEVER THERE!

We need to be IN to fight for MORE democracy. OUT just leaves us at the mercy of an UNDEMOCRATIC Westminster controlled by the Conservatories and the SPECIAL INTERESTS that back them.

Who are the unelected "elite"? The council and parliament of all of Europe or the Conservatory party with a tiny majority trying to shore up a system that gives them, a minority, absolute power, while they are using (abusing) that power to cut off the Opposition and the charities and the Lords who try to stand up to them?

So who rules Britain? The people who vote? Or the rigged system that gives all power to a Westminster controlled by a Conservatory elite and their secret big-money backers?


GREAT FLUFFY GRIEF there are four months of this to go!

Here's the HAPPY ENDING: on June 23rd we CAN vote to stay part of something Greater than just Little England; we CAN break the hold of the Conservatory elite. This DOESN'T just have to be about Boris's career plan; it can be about hope and a better future.


Fairytale Ending


Good luck!
24 Feb 16:55

The dominionist is also a goldbug

by Fred Clark

Ted Cruz is a dominionist — an adherent of a deliriously wacky theocratic fringe belief that merges the far-right Southern Gothic ideology of Christian Reconstructionism with some of the wilder fever-dreams of the self-proclaimed “prophets” of fundamentalist charismatic/Pentecostal Christianity. It’s not a good look — constitutionally or theologically.

41HwYKN28kLCruz is also a goldbug. He wants to put America back on the gold standard. That’s a Very Bad Idea that may rank as the economic equivalent of dominionist theology. The Donald Trump campaign may be basically one big sing-along of the theme from All in the Family, but Cruz’s goldbuggery takes the “We could use a man like Herbert Hoover again” bit even more literally.

Either of these things would be worrisome on its own. Put them together and it’s a bit like wandering into one of those old Universal monster movies, realizing you’ve run into both Dracula and Frankenstein. Sure, they’re both a bit cartoonish and old-timey, but they’re still monsters intent on doing you harm.

I’ve been trying to think about which would actually be more harmful. Probably the domininionism, since that’s more ambitiously far-reaching in scope. But I still remember 2008, and the huge damage done to families all over the world from the financial crisis that brought us almost to another global depression. Cruz’s goldbuggery could easily push us over the brink into the full economic horror we narrowly avoided eight years ago, and in terms of literal body count, that might be even worse than his theocratic fantasy.

For Cruz, though, these two things are not separate goals:

According to his father and Huch, Ted Cruz is anointed by God to help Christians in their effort to “go to the marketplace and occupy the land … and take dominion” over it.  This “end-time transfer of wealth” will relieve Christians of all financial woes, allowing true believers to ascend to a position of political and cultural power in which they can build a Christian civilization. When this Christian nation is in place (or back in place), Jesus will return.

A return to the gold standard would be disastrous, but it clearly would also produce a massive “end-time transfer of wealth.” And the weirdest thing is that I’m not accusing Ted Cruz of planning that, I’m just pointing out that he’s telling us that’s what he has planned.

Cruz is like a Bond villain, but he’s not revealing his secret diabolical plan to a captive 007 in some secret headquarters — he’s spelling it out clearly, in public, as part of his stump speech.

23 Feb 21:10

The Goat, the Wolf, and the Cabbage, OR: Poor Purchasing Decisions

by Ovid

A couple friends of mine made a game
and they named their stupid game company after this riddle
which happens to be VERY OLD.
When I told them how old the riddle was
they were like “holy shit we’ll pay you to do a re-telling of it”
and I was like “well I was just going to I MEAN YES PAY ME”
then I loaded up the post I’d already written
and changed exactly nothing about it
except this little preamble
about how you should seriously buy their really cool game
it’s about fooling nazis and you can watch me win at it on twitch sometimes
anyway, let me tell you about this dumb farmer and his problems.

Right so there’s this farmer
let’s call him Dick
Dick is not a very successful farmer
as evidenced by the fact that he has to go to the store
to buy a goat
a cabbage
and for some reason
a wolf
you would think if he needed cabbages
he could grow some on the farm that he has
the goat makes sense
but why the fuck does he need a wolf?
wolves are like the exact thing you want to keep out of your farm
and this dude is spending money
(which he probably doesn’t have a lot of
seeing as he can’t even grow fucking cabbages)
to ACQUIRE THE THING HE IS MOST AFRAID OF
that would be like being afraid of nuclear weapons
and so purchasing a bunch of oh
oh okay I get it.

Anyway the only store in the area
that sells both goats AND wolves AND cabbages
is on the other side of the river
so he rents a boat to get to the store
further increasing the cost of this errand
and then on the way back
he realizes he has a problem
i mean
he realizes he has a brand new problem
on top of all his previously existing problems.
The problem is this:
the boat can only hold him and one of this three dumb purchases.
if he leaves the wolf alone with the goat
the wolf will eat the goat
(this will likely still be a problem on the farm
also I wouldn’t feel great about having a wolf in a boat with me)
If he leaves the goat alone with the cabbage
the goat will eat the cabbage
and the grass under the cabbage
and the dirt
and any part of the mantle soft enough to chew
because goats are awful

so how does he solve this problem he created for himself?
SPOILERS:
he takes the goat across
then he takes the cabbage across
but he doesn’t just leave the goat there with the cabbage
because despite all prior evidence, he is not an idiot
no, he brings the goat BACK WITH HIM
and then LEAVES IT ON THE ORIGINAL SHORE and takes the wolf
then he puts the wolf with the cabbage
and goes and gets the goat
which has probably eaten half of the landscape by now
and the farmer lives happily ever after
until his long string of bad business decisions finally ruin him.

That’s the least interesting part of this story, though
the MOST interesting part
is that this riddle shows up fucking EVERYWHERE
Italy, Estonia, Russia, Scotland, fuckin Ghana
Ethiopia, Russia, seriously, EVERYWHERE
but my favorite version of the story comes from Zimbabwe.
Now in this version
our hero has acquired not three, but FOUR incompatible items:
a leopard, a goat, a rat, and a basket of corn.
He can still only take one thing across the river at a time
so what the fuck is he gonna do?
If he takes the goat across, the rat eats the grain
if he takes the grain across, the goat eats the rat probably
goats eat anything
if he takes the leopard across, he’s in a boat with a leopard
there’s no winning
so the dude is like “hmm
maybe i should get rid of one of these rowdy animals
then this problem would have a logical solution
but I can’t do that
these animals are like family to me
ever since I drove away my family with my dumb purchases
you know what?
fuck this logic puzzle
I don’t need to cross that river
I live here now.”
and that’s what he does.

So the moral of the story
is if you’re the kind of person who spends money on wild carnivores
don’t try to logic your way out of the problem
fucking own your stupidity.

The end.

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23 Feb 20:25

The Cosmonauts Exhibition

This is Vostok 6, the space capsule in which the first woman in space, 26-year-old Valentina Tereshkova, travelled out and safely returned to Earth in June 1963.


This is Voskhod 1, the first spacecraft to take more than one person into space, Vladimir Komarov, Konstantin Feoktistov and Boris Yegorov being the three-man crew on its brief mission in October 1964. It looks to my eye even smaller than the Vostok capsule in the next case. There was not enough room for spacesuits.


This is Soyuz TM-14, the first Russian (as opposed to Soviet) space flight, launched in March 1993 with two Russian cosmonauts and a German. They docked with the Mir space station; the German stayed only a week, but the Russians stayed until August and brought a more recently arrived Frenchman home to Earth with them. When they landed, the capsule ended up upside down and they hung suspended in their seats until the recovery team reached them.


This is a memorial bust of Sergei Korolev, the Chief Engineer who made Soviet space flight possible.


Working in politics, my instinct is to provide an ideological critique of all of this (and there is plenty to critique). But sometimes one should take a step back and appreciate the achievements of humanity.


The Cosmonauts exhibition runs only until 13 March in the Science Museum in London. Worth a detour, as the Michelin guides used to say.
21 Feb 17:26

Say what you like about the zombie apocalypse, at least you don’t have to go to work on Monday morning

by Jack Graham

There are fucking zombies everywhere these days. There are so many fucking zombies around these days that there are things complaining about how many fucking zombies there are around these days everywhere these days. There are so many things complaining about how many fucking zombies there are around these days that we’re on the verge of crossing a kind of things-complaining-about-how-many-fucking-zombies-there-are-around-these-days event horizon, whereupon all the things-complaining-about-how-many-fucking-zombies-there-are-around-these-days will collapse in upon themselves and be crushed to a things-complaining-about-how-many-fucking-zombies-there-are-around-these-days singularity. Or something. Whereupon there will suddenly not be many things-complaining-about-how-many-fucking-zombies-there-are-around-these-days. Or many fucking zombies, for that matter. No more than usual, anyways. No more than before the recession, which is the event which caused the already insane proliferation of zombies to escalate to a kind of meta-proliferation. The zombies will die down. Back to their original, natural level of presence and prominence. The only thing you can be sure of is that The Guardian’s arts/culture opinion writers will notice and announce it as an exciting new development (which they alone have noticed through their unique powers of penetration) exactly three years and eight months after the very last member of the category known as ‘Everyone Else’ already got sick of talking about how there don’t seem to be any zombies around these days.

I’ve said stuff about zombies before (thus adding my name to a long fucking roster)… though I think my stuff about zombies was better than anyone else’s, naturally. Largely because it was mostly about Cybermen. But I do have a couple more little things to say about zombies, or rather about zombie stories.

The first little observation I want to make is about how accommodating they are to having an ‘interesting and novel new spin’ put on them. And about how seldom it is actually done, which I think is telling. No, no, the spins people put on them are so pallid and tentative. Like, make them Nazis. (They have ideology now?) Or do a zombie Osama bin Laden. (Oh how edgy.) Or insert them into Jane Austen (yes, I know - you’re welcome). Oh, Seth Graeme-Smith, you iconoclast you. You’ve figured out a way to make millions of dollars by essentially releasing someone else’s pre-written, public-domain text with your shit smeared over every page.

Why? Why is the ductility of the concept of the zombie so rejected?

It can’t be the fear of diluting the concept. It’s true that zombies are a very pure and simple and clear concept… but the never-ending, always-churning, meat-grinder-cum-wood-chipper-cum-tombola that is/are the culture industries doesn’t usually worry about diluting clear and pure and simple concepts. You wouldn’t have sequels at all if people worried about that. What is any sequel but a dilution of the purity of an original idea? All sequels, and perhaps even more so prequels, are exercises in stamping all over gorgeous unity and wholeness and discreteness with big muddy boots. This is even more marked in sequels or prequels to high-concept stories, i.e. stories which trade in games of rigour about relatively simple rules-frameworks.

It’s almost as if, via some complex form of recurved self-awareness, people are so aware of how easy, how bloody easy, it is to put an interesting and novel new spin on zombies, that they then feel disinclined to bother. Or perhaps, a few of these interesting and novel new spins getting through (because things always get through), people see them and, thus inclined to overestimate the amount of fucking about people are doing with zombies, they then start to think that the reeeeeally interesting and novel thing to do with zombies is to just do them straight. Of course, the reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally interesting and novel thing to do with zombies would be to JUST LEAVE THEM THE FUCK ALONE. But somehow we, as a culture, seem to have come to the collective conclusion that that would be cheating.

But no. I think the real reason is that the zombie genre, at least as it exists today, is inherently cheap and disposable, and we all know that, and that’s the point of it. It’s not a side-issue. It’s the fucking point. There is no one answer to the question of why zombie films have so much appeal to us now… indeed, there’s even complex stuff to be said about whether or not they even do appeal to us anymore, and if we’re not all just following a kind of dumb herd-instinct when it comes to zombies (which would be bitterly ironic, when you think about it)… but there is a part of the zombie-appeal that’s about how cheap life is now, if we’re honest. Everything is more expensive these days, and yet everything feels cheap. I can’t go in to TESCO now without bumping into racks and racks of expensive/cheap DVDs and Blu-rays. You know what I mean by ‘expensive/cheap’. Shitty, ultra-low-budget films, made so amateurishly that they make Jess Franco movies look like they were meticulously crafted by a perfectionist cineaste, starring actors too bad to be in Hollyoaks… but glossily packaged. And they’re all horror. And the only thing cheaper to make than a zombie movie is a found footage movie.

There is, no doubt, a fairly simple point of political economy here. People wanna make-a da movies. But they dohna godda no money. So they godda make-a da cheapa movies. But cheapa movies datta gonna sell. Hence, horror. Because nobody ever bought My Dinner With Andre on blu-ray in TESCO.

But I want to venture to suggest that there are some wider points. Firstly, there’s the grotesquely obvious question of why people generally don’t want to buy films about interesting dinner conversations, but generally do want to buy stories about being cut up into pieces by psychopaths, or devoured by demons, or becoming walking corpses. I’ll skip this. I’ve touched on why I think people in capitalist societies are attracted to stories about mutilation and living-death… not least in the Cybermen thing I linked-to above (drawing heavily on the resources of Gothic Marxism as practiced by David McNally).

The thing I want to stress here is what I see as a connection between the cheapness of the genre nowadays and the theme of cheapness in the very ideas being treated within the genre. There has always been a bit of the multifarious appeal of the zombie to do with the thrill of treating human figures as utterly worthless, disposable, endlessly-replaceable fodder that it’s perfectly okay, or even laudable, to slaughter.

Yet the inflection seems to have changed. In Romero’s Dawn of the Dead, for instance, there is the de rigeur post-boom and post-60s satirical critique of consumerism. But the emphasis is on the mall that the zombies still want to get into and wander around in, and the things inside it that they still want to play with. The zombies are disposable, and the heroes go about purging the mall of the human figures they don’t want around in a way that could almost be a metaphor for ethnic cleansing before the term was even existed. But the emphasis is on the threat they pose. “They must be destroyed on sight!” In the early 2000s, as is much noted, zombies started running. Zack Snyder’s Dawn remake, 28 Days Later, Charlie Brooker’s TV serial Dead Set… all featured running zombies, characterised by some - including China Mieville - as ‘post-Seattle zombies’, i.e. zombies informed by the spectacle of urban insurrection at protests. Again, the emphasis was on the threat. It’s telling that Shaun of the Dead went back to classic shambling zombies, because that film was all about the pleasure of treating the people around you as disposable fleshbags. Shaun doesn’t notice the difference the first time he goes out after the zombie apocalypse kicks-in. It’s not a joke at his expense so much as at theirs. People are still shuffling and shambling around as vacantly and moronically as they were the day before. In the shops, these zombies are as cheap and tawdry and disposable as the tat they used to covet.  That’s life.

What has changed is the rules.  Which brings us to the next thing...

Maybe one reason why people are reluctant to tinker with the zombie too much is because they don’t want to change the rules, because one of the rules of zombie stories is that the rules have changed. And we wouldn’t want to unchange the changed rules. Because we like the changed rules.

A lot of our zombie apocalypse movies are about how much fun the zombie apocalypse will be. Shaun of the Dead, Zombieland, Romero’s Dawn, are all at least partly about this. In Dawn, the survivors who take over the shopping mall end up rather enjoying the purging process, and then set about raiding the shops, furnishing their new secure apartments on the top floor, etc. Shaun tries, with varying degrees of commitment, to treat Z-Day as an opportunity to stay in the pub. Similarly, the Simon Pegg character in World’s End (a quasi-zombie movie of the Stepford variety) ends up treating the post-apocalyptic world in the coda as an opportunity for endless fun and showing off. But I think it goes deeper than that.

There’s something about the end of the world. Ironically, a lot goes on there. And a lot of what goes on there seems quite free compared to how we live now. The sighted survivors in The Day of the Triffids find themselves dramatically and suddenly freed from social restrictions. Indeed, the story is actually about their constant struggle to maintain their new freedom from social restrictions in the face of various attempts by others to impose new structures of power. In Richard Matheson’s I Am Legend, the only surviving human being constructs a totally isolated life, hiding from the rest of the population at night because they’ve all become vampires. Safely tucked away behind shutters, garlic, and sound-proofing, Robert Neville sits alone and studied biology while listening to classical music, and boozing. During the day, when the vampires are all asleep, he roams the world freely, totally unrestricted, ransacking shops and libraries, and killing his sleeping, vampirised neighbours. Matheson frames the story as one of corrosive loneliness, but it’s hard not to see the fantasy of absolute autonomy, freedom, self-reliance, and unfettered individualism lurking within. Neville is paranoid, suspicious and hostile when he eventually thinks he’s met a human woman, and is ultimately unhappy to find himself surrounded by rational vampires who are forging their own new society, complete with social rules - to which he is now as allergic as they are to garlic. Indeed, the finale of the story demonstrates that he has become a lone alien creature to the vampires. He alone stalks the part of the day into which they cannot venture, and kills them freely. He is to them what they once were to him. He has become the monster, the legend. And the crux is that he has felt entirely free to kill them, lawlessly, at whim. They will execute him for this, because his removal is to be the keystone to their new construction of a nascently-totalitarian system of social control. This is the negation of Neville’s society-of-one, which he built alone, rationally planning his own safety and liberty.

Marx’s reading of bourgeois economists like Adam Smith and David Ricardo led him to christen then ‘Robinsonades’ after Robinson Crusoe. Robinson Crusoe is, of course, the man stranded on an island who survives alone - at least for a while - because he can rationally and determinedly work to create a world for himself. The starting point of Smith and Ricardo was an idea of society based on an idea of human nature which saw society as an aggregation of isolated, rational individuals. These individuals were the basis of the economy, with the entire structure reflecting the unitary, atomised nature of individuals, and their rational choices. The world was made up of lots of Robinson Crusoes. Relatedly, there is the fetish of individual genius, work, enterprise and initiative.

It’s a fantasy, but so is the story Robinson Crusoe. The pleasure of reading it lies in the relishing of the fantasy of self-reliance, which is a function of the narrative conceit of isolation. But the isolation is more than just a narrative conceit enabling a fantasy. The isolation is a fantasy itself. A very attractive one. Its basis is the fantasy of autonomy. I wrote elsewhere that the fundamental appeal of the detective story lies in a fantasy of autonomy (pardon me quoting myself but I can’t be bothered to paraphrase):

What does every detective story have in common? The hero or heroine who can move as freely as they choose from place to place, doing what they wish according to their own judgements as they make those judgements, managing their own time, roving from person to person conducting interviews, or from scene to scene gathering evidence or perceptions, entirely under their own steam… Whatever the fictional copper's notional complaints about paper work, the body of the story will see him or her cruising from suspect to suspect in a car. The appeal is of not being tied in some way in which most of us are tied… Here's the secret fantasy. It works in a way reminiscent of the American fantasy about solving guilt-problems held over from conquest which lies at the heart of the American ghost story. American ghost stories are all, fundamentally, about disputed real estate. British ghost stories are, of course, far more about the haunting of the modern by the feudal. Both are about capitalism vs some flavour of pre-capitalism. The detective story is… about some fantasy of freedom from the capitalist organisation of time or, relatedly, from the schedules imposed by the bourgeois family.

Even in Mary Shelley’s The Last Man (almost the first work in the post-apocalyptic genre but for a little known French prose poem), there is a clear wish-fulfillment logic at work. Despite the horror of what happens to the human race in that book, and the overpowering feel of melancholy as Shelley weaves her metaphor about the failure of Romanticism and her loss of the companions of her youth, the isolation of the last survivors lends itself to pleasure. Toward the end there is a clear sense that the last few people alive on Earth are rather enjoying bodding around Europe all by themselves. The ultimate irony is that the tragedy of Romantic individualism and personal freedom is not generalised political freedom but rather tyranny followed by utter atomisation and loneliness. The last people are living the Romantic dream, which is only possible in good conscience if everyone else is already gone.

It’s not difficult to see something similar in our present-day stories about the last few survivors of the apocalypse (zombie or otherwise). We’re living in the ruins of neoliberalism, but neoliberalism continues. Dead system walking... well, running actually. And still eating. Zombie neoliberalism, as many have observed. And these ruins of neoliberalism are also the ruins of liberalism, of social democracy. The fantasy of prosperity is still indulged. The aspiration to freedom is still indulged. It’s just that they’ve become inherently cheap fantasies, predicated upon the idea that everybody else has to be cleared out of the way, or made disposable.

 

21 Feb 11:37

Nonfiction Writing Advice

by Scott Alexander

People have asked me for advice on writing nonfiction online, so here are some tips:

1. Divide things into small chunks

Nobody likes walls of text. By this point most people know that you should have short, sweet paragraphs with line breaks between them. The shorter, the better. If you’re ever debating whether or not to end the paragraph and add a line break, err on the side of “yes”.

Once you understand this principle, you can generalize it to other aspects of your writing. For example, I stole the Last Psychiatrist’s style of section breaks – bold headers saying I., II., III., etc. Now instead of just paragraph breaks, you have two forms of break – paragraph break and section break. On some of my longest posts, including the Anti-Reactionary FAQ and Meditations on Moloch, I add a third level of break – in the first case, a supersection level in large fonts, in the latter, a subsection level with an underlined First, Second, etc. Again, if you’re ever debating more versus fewer breaks, err on the side of “more”.

Finishing a paragraph or section gives people a micro-burst of accomplishment and reward. It helps them chunk the basic insight together and remember it for later. You want people to be going – “okay, insight, good, another insight, good, another insight, good” and then eventually you can tie all of the insights together into a high-level insight. Then you can start over, until eventually at the end you tie all of the high-level insights together. It’s nice and structured and easy to work with. If they’re just following a winding stream of thought wherever it’s going, it’ll take a lot more mental work and they’ll get bored and wander off.

Remember that clickbait comes from big media corporations optimizing for easy readability, and that the epitome of clickbait is the listicle. But the insight of the listicle applies even to much more sophisticated intellectual pieces – people are much happier to read a long thing if they can be tricked into thinking it’s a series of small things.

2. Variety is the spice of life

This is really closely linked to the last tip. Your brain gets bored if it has to focus on the same thing for too long. But you can get around that by making an activity look like many different things. Sometimes this is as simple and as dumb as putting Roman numeral one, Roman numeral two, etc at natural breaks in the article, and then your brain thinks “Oh, I guess there are two different things here”. But other times you actually have to vary the reading experience.

Again, the clickbaiters are our gurus – they intersperse images throughout their content. The images aren’t always very useful, they don’t always add much, but now it’s not just a wall of text. It’s a wall of text and images.

Watch the blue twirly thing until you forget how bored you are by this essay, then continue.

Or you can be more subtle. Break your flow. Include links, so that the never-ending stream of black text on white background is broken up with some pretty blue. If you are very desperate, italicize certain words to simulate the stresses of normal speech and turn the visual experience into a visual-auditory experience. Vary the form of your sentences, as per Gary Provost:

This sentence has five words. Here are five more words. Five-word sentences are fine. But several together become monotonous. Listen to what is happening. The writing is getting boring. The sound of it drones. It’s like a stuck record. The ear demands some variety. Now listen. I vary the sentence length, and I create music. Music. The writing sings. It has a pleasant rhythm, a lilt, a harmony. I use short sentences. And I use sentences of medium length. And sometimes, when I am certain the reader is rested, I will engage him with a sentence of considerable length, a sentence that burns with energy and builds with all the impetus of a crescendo, the roll of the drums, the crash of the cymbals–sounds that say listen to this, it is important.

(Blockquotes are also a nice way to vary the reading experience)

But don’t just vary the appearance of your writing. Vary the tone. If you’re comfortable, shift between registers. When I was talking about SSRIs, I mentioned study after study after study – and then, around the middle, I told a kind of funny story about the time I had a job interview with the author of one of the studies. It was a complete break with the tone of the piece, which is dangerous – but my hope was that after having your mind dulled by twenty different pharmacology studies in a row, a quick first-person aside and silly story would be invigorating and give you the energy to wade through another twenty such studies.

3. Keep your flow of ideas strong

I lampshade my flow of ideas with a lot of words like “Also”, “But”, “Nevertheless”, “Relatedly”, and “So” (when I’m feeling pretentious, also “Thus”). These are the words your eighth-grade English teacher told you never to start paragraphs with. Your eighth-grade English teacher was wrong. If you’re writing three paragraphs that are three different pieces of evidence for the same conclusion that you’re going to present afterwards, make damn sure your readers know this. It could be as simple as:

It’s pretty obvious that X is true, and we have lots of converging lines of evidence for this. Some of the best evidence comes from the field of augury. For example:

First, A

Second, B

Third, C

Now, some people say that not-A, but that’s totally wrong. It only looks like not-A, because P. Likewise, although Q might make it look like not-B, Q can’t be trusted for several other reasons, for example R. And not-C is too silly to even think about. So despite the objections you always hear, the augurical evidence for X is strong.

Even more evidence comes from the field of haruspicy. All four major haruspical schools hold X as a major principle. School 1 says X because of D. School 2 says X because of E. School 3 says X because of F. And school 4 says X because of G. So although augury and haruspicy disagree on a lot, on the subject of X they are in complete accord.

Notice the underlined words holding up the structure of the argument. Not only is the argument nice and tight, but the role of each part in the whole is telegraphed beforehand. For example, the “now” that comes just after C is saying something like “Take a step back, I’m about to tell you something that might otherwise be controversial, but listen to what I have to say”. And the “likewise” just after P means something like “We just got down talking about not-A because P, here’s another argument with about the same structure”. Before any of the facts are inserted, you already know where they fit into the structure. And you’re able to abstract from the micro-level and get the bigger picture of some fact which is supported by both augury and haruspicy, which was the main point of the argument.

I overuse the world “actually” really badly. I’m trying to cut down on it, but I don’t want to stop completely. “Actually” is a great structural word. It distinguishes “Here’s how things look, here’s what’s actually true”. That sentence makes sense even without the “actually”, but I feel like the “actually” holds my readers’ hands through the process and makes the dichotomy better-defined.

Defend your flow of ideas at all costs. This might sound paradoxical after section 2, which was about how breaking flows is great. It is kind of paradoxical, and it is sort of hard to explain, but it’s the difference between “exciting” and “horrible”. Eating a foreign cuisine can be exciting because it’s so different from your usual fare; eating hot lava is even more different than your usual fare, but no longer fun. Play around with flow and variety, but never break the flow in a jarring way. And if you have to break a flow, make it the flow of your sentence, or the flow of your paragraph, but not the flow of ideas.

I agonize a lot about where it is versus isn’t appropriate to break the flow of ideas. Sometimes I use the really ugly solution of having an entire paragraph within parentheses, as if to say “I really wanted to bring this up here, but remember it’s not actually part of the structure of this argument!”

(this is a good meta-level example. I used the word “actually” there, and I wanted to point it out as an example of what I was talking about before, but doing that would break the flow of this whole argument about how you shouldn’t break the flow of things. So, in accordance with the prophecy, into a paragraph-long set of parentheses it goes. I’m starting to think maybe I’m not the best person to be giving writing advice…)

But sometimes you’ve just got to leave out an observation which would be interesting and helpful but not at that particular part of your argument. I think the phrase is “kill your darlings”.

4. Learn what should and shouldn’t be repeated.

A lot of the medical notes I read look like this:

Mr. Smith presents to the ER for evaluation. He is a 24 year old man. He is complaining of chest pain. He was in the shower today when he slipped and fell. He was able to get up and make dinner. He says the chest pain started two hours later. He says has never had chest pain before. He took two aspirin. He says that did not help. He says the pain is 8/10 at this time. He says it is pretty bad, but that the pain of hearing these repetitive sentence structures is even worse.

If two sentences in a row start with the same word, it sounds unwieldy. If three or four do, it sounds bizarre. If it’s a whole paragraph’s worth, people start questioning their own sanity and trying to claw their eyes out.

A counterexample: what about the paragraph just above, starting with “If two sentences…”? I started with “if” three times in a row, and it didn’t sound bad at all! What’s up?

Deliberate use of parallelism is okay and even commendable. Usually this involves using the same structure to call attention to certain differences. You can tell if something is good parallelism by saying it aloud. When I say the paragraph above aloud, I’m using special intonation, especially in the places where the sentences differ (ie “two”, “three or four”, “whole paragraph’s worth”). Here your reader knows what you’re trying to do and it’s interesting. In the medical history example, there’s no deliberate attempt at parallelism in order to compare and contrast. You’re just doing the same thing again and again.

But it’s not just about first words of sentences. Consider something like this:

China has the largest population of any country in the world. It also has the largest military. Because of China’s powerful military, some of its neighbors are afraid of it. China has reassured its neighbors many times that it’s peaceful, but they’re not convinced.

This sounds off to me. The repetition of “largest population” and “largest military” is done clumsily. There are a lot of ways to make it a virtuous parallelism – for example “China has the largest population – and largest military – in the world” or “China has the largest population in the world; it also boasts the largest military” – but as it is, it just sounds weird. When you come to “largest military”, there’s an immediate mental callback to “largest population”, but you’re not sure why and it’s just distracting.

Likewise, the repetition of “neighbors” is weird. It could be solved by changing the second use to “those neighbors”, which sort of telegraphs that you know you’re repeating “neighbors” and did it on purpose. Otherwise it has the same unfortunate dull-sounding cadence as the medical history.

You could also solve both those problems by just varying the structure enough that the problem goes away. For example:

China is the most populous nation in the world. It also boasts the world’s largest military, which has provoked concern among other nations in the region. Although China has tried to reassure its neighbors of its peaceful intentions, they remain unconvinced.

This is hard and really deserves a book-length treatment. Without the book, all I can say is to realize that any repetition of words and structures will stand out to your reader, and make sure that their standing-out emphasizes your point instead of just being confusing.

5. Use microhumor

You’ve heard of microaggressions. Now try microhumor. It’s things that aren’t a joke in the laugh-out-loud told-by-a-comedian sense, but still put the tiniest ghost of a smile on your reader’s face while they’re skimming through them.

I learned this art from Dave Barry and Scott Adams, both of whom are humor writers and use normal macrohumor, but both of whom pepper the spaces in between jokes with microhumor besides. Your best best is to read everything they’ve written, your second best bet is to listen to me fumblingly try to explain it.

Here’s a paragraph from my “about” page:

Topics here tend to center vaguely around this meta-philosophical idea of how people evaluate arguments for their beliefs, and especially whether this process is spectacularly broken in a way that may or may not doom us all.

There are a couple of things here that might qualify as microhumor. Take “especially whether this process is spectacularly broken in a way that may or may not doom us all”. It’s not really a joke. If I were a comedian and recited that sentence, you wouldn’t start laughing. But it’s kind of funny to be starting with what sounds like a pretty dry academic idea (“how people evaluate arguments for their beliefs” and whether the process is broken), and then confound expectations with an exaggerated (well, maybe) warning about it dooming us all. The phrase “may or may not doom us all” does the same thing on a smaller scale: “may or may not” is a pretty reserved, careful sounding phrase, whereas “doom us all” is obviously the opposite of reserved (I also like the similar construction “it might have sort of kind of been the worst idea ever”).

You can actually go a long way toward microhumor just with hedge words (“vaguely”, “sort of”), exaggerations (“the worst thing ever”, “doom us all”), and sometimes the combination of the two.

I think this microhumor stuff is really important, maybe the number one thing that separates really enjoyable writers from people who are technically proficient but still a chore to read. Think about it with a really simplistic behaviorist model where you keep doing things that give you little bursts of reward, and stop doing things that don’t. There are only a couple of sources of reward in reading. One of them is getting important insights. Another is hearing things that support your ingroups or bash your outgroups. And a third – maybe the biggest – is humor. Who ever had trouble slogging through a really hilarious book of jokes?

Nobody can be super funny all the time, and an article on the economic crisis filled with man-walks-into-a-bar-style jokes would be jarring and weird. But micro-humor really works. It works at a background level where people don’t notice it working, and it makes people keep coming back for more.

Humor is also disarming. It’s hard to hate somebody who’s making you laugh. I don’t mean somebody who’s making bigoted jokes that offend you, or writing political cartoons about how awful your ingroup is. Those people are easy to hate. I mean somebody who’s making you laugh, right now. If you can make people laugh while challenging their cherished beliefs, you’ve got a tiny bit more good will than usual.

6. Use concrete examples

Consider the following proposition:

In a study measuring whether implicit attitudes determine an outcome, you need to make sure the implicit attitudes aren’t serving as accurate proxies for underlying fundamentals.

This is the thesis of one of my more popular posts, Perceptions Of Required Ability Act As A Proxy For Actual Required Ability, but I don’t present it like that. Instead, I start by saying:

Imagine a study with the following methodology. You survey a bunch of people to get their perceptions of who is a smoker (“97% of his close friends agree Bob smokes”). Then you correlate those numbers with who gets lung cancer. Your statistics program lights up like a Christmas tree with a bunch of super-strong correlations. You conclude “Perception of being a smoker causes lung cancer”, and make up a theory about how negative stereotypes of smokers cause stress which depresses the immune system. The media reports that as “Smoking Doesn’t Cause Cancer, Stereotypes Do”.

Whether or not you understood or agreed with the abstract version thesis, you (hopefully) find the problems with the nicotine example intuitively obvious. Now if I give you the principle “in a study measuring whether implicit attitudes determine an outcome, you need to make sure the implicit attitudes aren’t serving as accurate proxies for underlying fundamentals”, that principle makes sense and you will tend to agree with it. Now we can move on to harder problems, like the actual study in the post, where it’s not as obvious and where a lot of people thought they’d proven that the implicit attitude determined the outcome.

If you’re going to be making a complicated point, start with a concrete example. If you’re going to be making a very complicated point, start with a lot of concrete examples. When I wrote Meditations on Moloch, probably the most complicated point I’ve ever tried to express on this blog, I began with fourteen different examples before I even started trying to express the underlying principle. I hoped that readers would be able to triangulate my point by finding what all fourteen examples had in common, and most of them did.

This is related to an idea I keep stressing here, which is that people rarely have consistent meta-level principles. Instead, they’ll endorse the meta-level principle that supports their object-level beliefs at any given moment. The example I keep giving is how when the federal government was anti-gay, conservatives talked about the pressing need for federal intervention and liberals insisted on states’ rights; when the federal government became pro-gay, liberals talked about the pressing need for federal intervention and conservatives insisted on states’ rights.

So if you want to convince someone of a meta-level principle, you need to build it up from examples that support it. And if you want the principle to be well-founded and stable under reflective equilibrium, you also need to present the examples that don’t support it and explain why you didn’t make your principle out of those instead.

And if you want to convince somebody that their meta-level principle is wrong, the quickest and most effective way to do it is to show that it proves too much, then provide them with a better principle that preserves the things they want but doesn’t prove things they don’t want.

But my point is that all of this has to be done on the object-level, with the excursions to the meta-level level being few, far-between, and justified with extensive application to the object-level. Otherwise you’re too likely to shoot off into the entirely abstract and end up sounding like Hegel:

The good is the idea, or unity of the conception of the will with the particular will. Abstract right, well-being, the subjectivity of consciousness, and the contingency of external reality, are in their independent and separate existences superseded in this unity, although in their real essence they are contained in it and preserved. This unity is realized freedom, the absolute final cause of the world. Every stage is properly the idea, but the earlier steps contain the idea only in more abstract form. The I, as person, is already the idea, although in its most abstract guise. The good is the idea more completely determined; it is the unity of the conception of will with the particular will. It is not something abstractly right, but has a real content, whose substance constitutes both right and well-being.

Please don’t end up sounding like Hegel.

And a free tip for this: use words like “me” and “you” instead of “a person” or “someone”. Compare:

“If someone does the calculations with this methodology, the result will probably be nonsense.”

Versus:

“If you do the calculations with that methodology, you’ll probably end up with nonsense.”

I think the second sounds snappier and more concrete.

7. Figure out who you’re trying to convince, then use the right tribal signals

Your role model in this (and in nothing else) should be Donald Trump. Think about it. He supports Planned Parenthood, doesn’t want to cut entitlement programs, condemns Dubya and the Iraq war, supports affirmative action, supports medical marijuana, etc. If somebody were to tell you last year that a man with those policy positions would not only be leading the Republican primary, but leading even among the most conservative voters, you’d think they were crazy. The rest of the country has been trying to convince conservative Republicans to be more comfortable with those positions for decades, and we’ve failed miserably. Now Trump just waltzes in and everyone is like “Yeah, okay, sure”?

The secret of Trump’s success is that most conservative Republicans don’t really care about medical marijuana (or whatever) for its own sake. They care because opposing medical marijuana symbolizes membership in their tribe, they feel like their tribe is persecuted, they have a fierce loyalty to their tribe, and darned if they’re going to support somebody who doesn’t use the right shibboleths.

Trump throws them a bone. He says things like “illegal immigrants are rapists” that no moderate or liberal would ever say, things that would horrify them. He uses all the affectations of being working class. He may not quite prove he’s “one of us”, but he very effectively proves he’s not Just A Typical Outgroup Member. When Trump says “Legalize medical marijuana”, they don’t hear “I’m yet another RINO liberal pansy who hates Christian values and wants everybody to become reefer-smoking hippies”. So they only hear something boring about the regulations around pain relief medication – and who cares about those?

Trump’s Law is that if you want to convince people notorious for being unconvinceable, half the battle is using the right tribal signals to sound like you’re one of them.

For example, when I’m trying to convince conservatives, I veer my signaling way to the right. I started my defense of trigger warnings with “I complain a lot about the social justice movement”. Then I cited Jezebel and various Ethnic Studies professors being against trigger warnings. Then I tried to argue that trigger warnings actually go together well with strong versions of freedom of speech. At this point I haven’t even started arguing in favor of trigger warnings, I’ve just set up an unexpected terrain in which trigger warnings can be seen as a conservative thing supported by people who like free speech and don’t like social justice, and opposition to trigger warnings can be seen as the sort of very liberal thing that people like Jezebel and Ethnic Studies professors support. The important thing isn’t that I convince anyone that trigger warnings are really on the right – that’s a tall order – but that the rightists reading my argument feel like I’m working with them rather than against them. I’m not just another leftist saying “Support trigger warnings because it’s the leftist thing and you should be leftist and everyone on the right is terrible!”

My reward was seeing a bunch of hard-core anti-social-justice types trip over themselves in horror at actually being kind of convinced, which was pretty funny.

On the other hand, when I’m trying to convince feminists of something, I start with a trigger warning – partly because I genuinely believe it’s a good idea and those posts can be triggering, but also partly because starting with a trigger warning is a tribal signal that people on the right rarely use. It means that either I’m on their side, or I’m being unusually respectful to it. In this it’s a lot like Trump saying illegal immigrants are rapists – something the outgroup would never, ever do.

(And that’s not just my theory – I’ve gotten lots of angry comments about the trigger warnings from people further right than me, saying that using them makes me an idiot or a pushover or a cuck or something. I am always happy to get these comments, because it means the signaling value of using trigger warnings remains intact.)

Crossing tribal signaling boundaries is by far the most important persuasive technique I know, besides which none of the others even deserve to be called persuasive techniques at all. But to make it work, you have to actually understand the signals, and you have to have at least an ounce of honest sympathy for the other side. You can’t just be like “HELLO THERE, FELLOW LIBERALS! LET’S CREATE INTRUSIVE BIG GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TOGETHER! BUT BEFORE WE DO, I HAVE SOMETHING I WANT TO TELL YOU ABOUT THE SECOND AMENDMENT…”

Which I guess means that being able to consider both sides of an issue sort of gives you superpowers. That’s pretty encouraging.

8. Anticipate and defuse counterarguments

Here’s something I’ve noticed. Something like:

Alice: We need to invade Syria. I know that there’s always the risk of creating a Iraq-style power vacuum in these situations, but the threat from ISIS is too great.

Sounds a whole lot better than something like:

Alice: We need to invade Syria.
Bob: But isn’t there a risk that will create a Iraq-style power vacuum?
Alice: The threat from ISIS is too great.

The second one sounds too much like Alice hadn’t really thought about the power vacuum thing, Bob called her on it, and she kind of blew him off with a tangentially related point. The first one sounds more like Alice is a careful thinker who has weighed all the risks and benefits and finally decided in favor of invasion. This is true even though Alice’s reasoning is the same in both situations.

Or what about this:

Alice: We need to invade Syria. I know that there’s always the risk of creating a Iraq-style power vacuum in these situations, but the threat from ISIS is too great.
Bob: I know the threat from ISIS is serious, but I’m still really worried about that power vacuum thing.

Bob sounds kind of weak here. Come on, Bob. Alice already raised the power vacuum issue! We’re done with that!

The moral of the story is that you sound a lot more credible, and your opponents a lot less persuasive, if you’re the one who brings the possible counterarguments up yourself. This is true regardless of how effective your countercounterarguments are.

There’s also a visibility advantage. Suppose Alice puts her argument on her blog. Bob quotes her and puts his counterargument on his blog. Maybe the readers of Bob’s blog won’t read Alice’s blog where they can see her countercounterargument. Maybe they don’t even read the comments of Bob’s blog. If Alice addressed the obvious counterarguments in her first post, Bob has been preempted from blogging about them separately, or at least has lost his low-hanging fruit and has to stretch further before he finds something he can talk about. And if he does quote Alice, all the countercounterarguments against his point will be right there for his readers.

This isn’t just good rhetorical practice, it’s good epistemic practice. A lot of Internet arguments are the same ten or twenty issues re-examined time after time after time after time. If you’re arguing in favor of gun control, you have no excuse not to realize somebody will bring up “But don’t guns save lives by helping people with self-defense?”. And in fact, if you’re arguing in favor of gun control, you had better have thought long and hard yourself about whether or not guns save lives through self-defense. If you’ve never considered that, you have no business having an opinion. But if you have considered and rejected that, then you might as well run your audience through your thought process now (and sound more convincing) now rather than wait until some pro-gun person brings it up (and be caught flat-footed like Alice in the second example).

The logical conclusion of this process is that you address all the arguments, counterarguments, and countercounterarguments in the space you’re covering, nobody can disagree with you, and you’re self-evidently right. Sometimes this takes a lot of text, but better a long argument which is accurate and convincing than a short snappy argument which might be wrong or unpersuasive. Besides, by this point you’ve absorbed all these other tips and hopefully write in an engaging way that makes your readers want to keep going no matter how many levels of countercountercountercounterargument you spring on them.

(Your other option here is just to put this stuff in footnotes and let your readers decide whether or not to go through them. It’s very satisfying to answer somebody’s stupid objection with “Actually, I think you’ll find I disproved that in footnote 17.”)

There’s a special variant of this you need when you’re in shark-infested waters, debating very controversial things with very hostile people. Here the “counterargument” is going to take the form of trying to destroy your reputation by using one of your comments, taken out of context, to prove you’re a bad person with unconscionable beliefs who should never be listened to.

For example, suppose I’m trying to explain some social phenomenon and I mention that rich people get better grades in school than poor people. A hostile opponent could accuse me of making a stupid stereotype and saying that all rich people are better than all poor people; then he could condescendingly “correct” me by saying that actually the within-class differences are larger than the between-class ones. Or might say that I need to realize school grades aren’t the only thing and there are much more important determinants of people’s worth as a human being. Or he might accuse me of being a Social Darwinist, and “correct” me by saying that maybe this is because of the stresses of poverty.

Now, in fact I neither said nor meant any of those things. But if somebody accuses me of them, and I have to plead that I really didn’t mean it that way, honest – then they can double down and say that my protests of innocence are the surest sign of my guilt. Whether they succeed or not, I’m on the defensive. We’ve shifted from debating whatever point I wanted to make in the first place, to debating whether Scott is a monocle-wearing Social Darwinist who believes all poor people deserve to starve on the street.

The solution is really simple: anticipate and defuse counterarguments. If I wanted to make the class/grades point, it would go something like this:

According to [study], students from families earning >$100,000 score have an average high school GPA X points higher than students from families earning

A related note: when talking about controversial things to a potentially hostile audience, look through every single sentence of your work and imagine how it would sound if it were quoted out of context and used as a summary of who you are as a human being. If you don’t, eventually someone will try this and you’ll be unprepared.

9. Use strong concept handles

The idea of concept-handles is itself a concept-handle; it means a catchy phrase that sums up a complex topic.

Eliezer Yudkowsky is really good at this. “belief in belief“, “semantic stopsigns“, “applause lights“, “Pascal’s mugging“, “adaptation-executors vs. fitness-maximizers“, “reversed stupidity vs. intelligence“, “joy in the merely real” – all of these are interesting ideas, but more important they’re interesting ideas with short catchy names that everybody knows, so we can talk about them easily.

I have very consciously tried to emulate that when talking about ideas like trivial inconveniences, meta-contrarianism, toxoplasma, and Moloch.

I would go even further and say that this is one of the most important things a blog like this can do. I’m not too likely to discover some entirely new social phenomenon that nobody’s ever thought about before. But there are a lot of things people have vague nebulous ideas about that they can’t quite put into words. Changing those into crystal-clear ideas they can manipulate and discuss with others is a big deal.

If you figure out something interesting and very briefly cram it into somebody else’s head, don’t waste that! Give it a nice concept-handle so that they’ll remember it and be able to use it to solve other problems!

10. Recognize that applying these rules will probably start disastrously

There’s a pattern across almost all skills, where people start off doing things half-baked but sometimes with a bit of native talent. The experts teach them The Right Way To Do Things, and they switch to doing it in a stilted formulaic way that makes everybody else cringe. Eventually they become better and better. Finally, they do things that completely contradict the rules they were taught, and it works great. I think it was in the context of poetry that somebody said “Learn the rules first, then you can break them as much as you want.”

Untrained natural writing is often bad, but at least honestly bad. Untrained writing that tries to force itself to do something because somebody told them it was a good idea is much worse. Think of the old adage “If you’re giving a speech, start out with a joke.” It’s great advice when done right. Now imagine all the ways it could go wrong – terrible jokes, inappropriate jokes, forced jokes, speeches that absolutely shouldn’t start off with jokes, et cetera. A speech that doesn’t start off with a joke is often good; a speech that shouldn’t start out with a joke but has been forced into doing so never is. Eventually you end up shouting “Just use your instincts!” at people who do not actually have instincts.

Use the advice in this post wrong, and you end up transforming the famous quote from the Declaration of Independence into something like:

Although we agree King George has many good qualities, we nevertheless hold these truths to be more or less self-evident. Truth number one, that all men are created equal. For example, they should all be equally allowed to speak freely about important issues like taxes. It’s possible that there might be some times they shouldn’t be equal, like children having fewer rights than adults, but this are just minor exceptions. [insert picture of Liberty Bell here] Truth number two, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights…

Almost the only good advice in any discipline is “develop instincts, then use them”. While you’re waiting for the instincts to develop, or in order to push them along, it’s sometimes helpful to hear some other people’s advice. But do. not. force. it.

George Orwell ended his own list of writing advice with “Break any of these rules rather than say something outright barbarous”. As usual, George Orwell is right.

I also like Piet Hein’s commentary:

There is
one art,
no more,
no less:
to do
all things
with art-
lessness.
20 Feb 18:27

Bektashi humour - repost from ten years ago

Originally posted by nwhyte at Bektashi humour
In memory of the late Baba Tahir Emini, I've been reading up on his sect, the Bektashi. I was aware, from my conversations with him and with others, that they are of a mystical Sufist tradition, preach tolerance, love, and peace, and consider some of the traditions of orthodox Islam regarding the role of women and the use of alcohol to be distractions from the truth. I was unaware that they are also associated with a particular sense of humour, and that there are a whole set of Bektashi jokes told by the faithful about themselves. Some of them don't translate awfully well, but one of them I feel sure I've heard in an Irish version:
One day the Sunni friends of a Bektashi dervish insisted that he go to the mosque to pray the Friday prayer. As he took his seat in the congregation the hodja spotted him. Wanting to embarrass the dervish, the hodja began to lecture on the evils of alcohol. He began describing in detail all of the natural and religious reasons why drinking any alcohol at all is bad. To prove a point that even animals won’t drink liquor the hodja asks “If you put a bucket of water and a bucket of raki in front of a donkey, which will it drink?”

Someone in the crowd answered, “The water of course.”

“Why so?” enquired the hodja.

Unable to hold himself, the Bektashi exclaimed “Why so? Because it’s a donkey!”
There are other jokes that I think could not be told in any other context than an Islamic one:
A Bektashi was in a mosque one day listening to the hodja give a sermon. He was half asleep when the hodja began talking about the pure virgins that awaited the faithful in heaven.

When he heard the word heaven, the Bektashi came to himself and asked the hodja excitedly, "Hodja efendi will wine and raki be served to the faithful in heaven?"

The hodja became furious and shouted back, "You pagan, what do you think heaven is... a tavern?!"

The Bektashi replied likewise, "Hah! What do you think heaven is... a whorehouse?!"
But I am particularly intrigued by the jokes with a certain universailty, but which also presuppose a very close connection between the Bektashi mystic and God, to the point that certain things are expected as of right from the relationship:
One day, the weather grew very hot. Burdened with thirst, a Bektashi dervish decided to buy a watermelon with some change he took out of his pocket. With watermelon in hand, he found a beautiful shade tree to sit under where he proceeded to slice up his watermelon with great appetite. However, after putting the first piece into his mouth, he found it so sour that it was difficult to eat. He began shouting complaints to the Creator, “Alas my God! Are you so stingy that you can't even put a little sugar in this watermelon. You always bestow favors on Your servants, but never with what is really needed!” Thus swearing, he finished off the watermelon in spite of its tartness and threw the rinds to the side.

After a while he saw a poor waif, half dead with hunger and thirst, approaching. Not wishing to be bothered, the Bektashi sat still and pretended to be asleep. The poor man came close, saw the watermelon rinds and began to eat them. Discreetly, the Bektashi observed the poor man out of the corner of his eye. He saw with astonishment how each time the poor man took a bite of rind he exclaimed, "My God, many thanks to You! You nourish me in spite of everything with this watermelon rind. You have ensured my subsistence!"

Hearing this, the Bektashi became furious and rose up. He shouted, “Enough of this! I ate the inside of that melon even though it was bitter and torturous and believe me, I let Allah know it. But you! You eat the foul-tasting rind and you thank Him for it? It’s this kind of cheap flattery that encourages Him to keep making poor quality watermelon!”
Anyway, my research will continue.
19 Feb 17:31

How to make your text look futuristic.

How to make your text look futuristic.
19 Feb 17:24

A prediction: Franklin Graham will ‘run for president’ in 2020

by Fred Clark

The trickiest question about the Ben Carson campaign is whether or not the former surgeon is himself in on the scam. My guess is that he’s not. Ben Carson strikes me as many things — naive, befuddled, deeply weird, woefully ignorant and incurious about everything other than surgery — but I don’t think he’s particularly cunning. So I suspect he was probably just duped into being the front for this money-making enterprise without ever fully understanding that that’s all it ever was. I’d guess he hasn’t even negotiated a fair share of the take.

LessThanZeroIf that’s true, then Carson is innocent of being in on the grift, but still not entirely innocent. He’s still guilty of a staggering arrogance. You should run for president, the grifters told him, and he responded by saying, “Yes, that makes perfect sense. Who better than me?”

It takes a kind of arrogance for anyone to run for president, of course, but it’s not usually the only factor. Whether it’s Ted Cruz or Barack Obama or Rick Santorum or Bruce Babbitt, most candidates have some political agenda they want to pursue — something other than the simple thought that they would make a good president because of course they would. Carson gave a (pretty bad, actually) speech at a National Prayer Breakfast, after which a bunch of people said to him “You should be president.” And he agreed with them. He agreed with them even though he seems to have little understanding of what that means other than having the public acknowledge that he is uniquely deserving to hold the highest office.

I think the grifters sniffed that out. It’s what makes him the perfect unwitting front for a campaign racket — ensuring both that he’ll never understand what they’re up to, and that he’ll never admit that he doesn’t understand what they’re up to. And thus that he’ll never interfere with their money-making scam.

And let’s be clear about this: The Ben Carson for President campaign has functioned as a money-making scam. It has not functioned as anything like an actual campaign with any plan or goal of getting Ben Carson elected to anything. People have been writing about this since last year — usually with cagey, question-mark headlines. “Is Carson for Prez a Direct Mail Scam?” Josh Marshall asked last November. His answer: Sure seems to be. “Is Ben Carson Running for President?” Jonathan Chait asked. His answer: He does not seem to be. And here’s Jeet Heer, this month, asking “Is Ben Carson’s campaign an elaborate scam?” Well, if you’ve gotta ask

Heer is referring to Josh Israel’s report for Think Progress, which addresses all those questions while managing not to put them in the headline: “As Ben Carson’s Campaign Tanked, Top Advisors Reaped Millions.”

Though his campaign raised more than $22 million over the final three months of 2015 — the most of any Republican hopeful — he ended the year a seemingly spent force. … But while Carson declined in the polls, a small group saw its fortunes on the rise: his campaign advisors and consultants. Already under fire for a campaign spending model that bore the marking of a direct mail scam, Carson’s newly disclosed fourth quarter spending shows huge payments to companies controlled by his current and former advisors.

The campaign spent more than $27 million over that period. $4.7 million of that went to Eleventy Marketing Group, mostly for its “digital media/web service.” The Akron, Ohio-based company president, Ken Dawson, is also the Carson campaign’s chief marketing officer. … Eleventy’s other clients include TMA Direct.

TMA Direct received $2.8 million from the Carson campaign over the same period for web services, mailings, and list rental. Mike Murray is Carson’s senior advisor for grassroots marketing and TMA’s president and CEO. His official biography also notes that he founded the American Legacy Political Action Committee and that its Save Our Healthcare program was chaired by Carson. Murray also serves as managing partner for Precision Data Management, which received an additional $217,000 from the campaign for web services.

Communication Management Source hauled in more than $1.2 million from Carson’s campaign coffers for travel expenses. The company is run by Joann Parker, wife of then-Carson finance chairman Dean Parker. His Vita Capital also received more than $138,000 for supplies, travel, and event expenses. Dean Parker was one of many Carson staffers to resign last month, amid criticism of his reported $20,000 monthly fee. …

The campaign also paid more than $2.3 million to InfoCision, a controversial company that has previously raised money for political action committees that spent the bulk of their money on overhead only.

In simpler terms: All these campaign “consultants” are Max Bialystock and Leo Bloom. Ben Carson is Franz Liebkind, and the campaign itself is “Springtime for Hitler.”

Yes, all presidential campaigns raise and spend a lot of money. And, since only one candidate can win, most of those campaigns spend that money in a losing effort. But usually all of that money is spent in pursuit of some strategy that is intended, however implausibly, to get the candidate elected. The super PACs supporting Jeb Bush have spent gazillions on advertising and campaign events. Those huge sums have failed to persuade Republican primary voters to support Jeb Bush, but it’s clear that’s what all that spending was trying to do. The super PACs supporting Ted Cruz are pouring millions into his attempt to replicate the Obama campaign’s remarkable volunteer-driven ground game (people apparently have to be well paid to do for Ted Cruz what volunteers did for Obama). All of that money, again, is clearly intended to win votes for the candidate.

But the Carson campaign has spent little of its money on actual campaigning. Much of that money has been spent, instead, on raising more money, which has then been funneled back to a small group of advisers and consultants for nebulous services that don’t seem to have anything to do with any meaningful attempt to win votes for Ben Carson.

This is a thing that can be done. It’s probably completely legal. And for those who pull it off, it’s extremely lucrative. Ben Carson for President raised $27 million and his advisers collected $27 million. Just like in The Producers, they’re not trying to put on a hit show. Being a box-office flop is part of the plan.

As long as such a money-making opportunity exists, people — perhaps even the same people — will do it again. The 2020 campaign will bring us another crop of pseudo-candidates whose semi-plausible campaigns will do little in the way of actually attempting to pursue victory while doing a great deal in the way of raising and collecting vast sums of money.

All they need to do is find another rube to serve as a front for the next go-round. Ideally, it should be someone with a bit of name recognition — a public figure already well-known, and preferably with an already established base of financial supporters. And it works best if this person has the kind of incurious arrogance that made Ben Carson such a reliable mark. It would need to be the sort of person who would say, “Yes, of course, it makes perfect sense that I’d be president.”

So I’m thinking Franklin Graham. He’s handsome, has a famous name and a built-in constituency. He’d be easy to goad into saying yes, and then unlikely to understand his hollow, peripheral role in the scheme or to interfere with what’s really going on. He’d be perfect.

You read it here first. Franklin Graham won’t really run for president in 2020 any more than Ben Carson is really running for president in 2016. But I bet Franklin Graham for President, Inc. will raise, and spend, a lot of money and line a lot of pockets.

18 Feb 18:01

Emma Thompson shows how not to win the European referendum

by Jonathan Calder
If we want the forces of light to win the referendum on British membership of the European Union then we have to get away that it is a project of the elites.

Which may be a problem. While professionals arrange the harmonisation of qualifications across the continent to make it easy for them to take up agreeable employment abroad, the rest of us are faced with an influx of people who will work harder and expect lower wages.

That, incidentally, why it is bizarre that David Cameron's demands centre on benefits for people from Poland. It is the Poles in jobs that British workers are afraid of.

But if you are trying to dispel the idea that Europe is an elitist project then you don't want someone like Emma Thompson describing Britain as:
"a tiny little cloud-bolted, rainy corner of sort-of Europe, a cake-filled misery-laden grey old island."
It is possible to love Britain and be in favour of our membership of the EU, but you wouldn't grasp it from her words.

And I don't understand what is wrong with cake. With the success of The Great British Bake Off, it is all the rage these days and isn't a love of curry as much a marker of Britishness these days anyway?

Perhaps we should look at John Carey's The Intellectuals and the Masses, where he dissects the horror of the likes of the Bloomsbury Group at the food of the workers. My dear, tinned food!

Let me end by quoting my review of Phil Norman's A History of Television in 100 Programmes:
The essay on The Magic Roundabout called to mind the family legend that my father was a school friend of Eric Thompson. My mother says he would occasionally smile at the airs Thompson later gave himself, given the humble home he came from. Goodness knows what he made of Emma.
18 Feb 18:00

Vince Cable looks back on the tuition fees debacle

by Jonathan Calder


Vince Cable spoke to Times Higher Education this week after taking up an honorary professorship at the University of Nottingham.

Asked about the Coalition decision to increase tuition fees, he said:
"It was politically very traumatic, but it was actually good policy. One of my colleagues, I think, came up with the phrase that we got 8 out of 10 for the policy but 2 out of 10 for the politics.
"The problem was that we made this pledge about not increasing student tuition fees – it was disastrous, it was not deliverable. ... 
"We got hammered for it – loss of trust, all those things. But it wasn’t deliverable in the financial climate of the coalition. 
"My job was to try to make the best of a bad job and produce a system which was genuinely progressive. It is. Nobody pays fees; they pay a form of graduate tax when they leave, depending on their income. 
"The universities as a consequence are now quite well funded, unlike most other bits of what you could broadly call the public sector."
You can see the heart of the Liberal Democrats' problem in the photo above - and I don't mean Nick Clegg.

We pledged to vote against any increase in tuition fees in the next parliament and to pressure the government to introduce a fairer alternative,

As was pointed out (I think by Polly McKenzie) in the debate I posted the other day, this took it for granted that we would not be in government after the 2010 general election.
18 Feb 14:11

jsbeeb: an in-browser BBC Micro emulator.

jsbeeb: an in-browser BBC Micro emulator.
18 Feb 14:10

#65 Dinah the Aspie Dinosaur and the Unexpected Visitor (2)

by Dinah
17 Feb 12:21

Tatchell, a pro freedom-from-criticism activist

by Zoe O'Connell

What’s below started out as a comment on yet another blog post I ran across, supporting Peter Tatchell and (unsurprisingly) based entirely on a Tatchell-centric view of the world. It got long, so I thought it would be worth putting it up as it’s own post here. Those interested in reading up on the background of Peter’s repeated uninvited meddling can also find more at the following sites: (This is far from an exhaustive list)


This is not about identity politics. Or it wouldn’t be, except that Peter Tatchell makes it.

This is about white knighting. It’s about refusing to listen to marginalised groups who don’t want “help”. It’s about someone who plays the victim when people fail to show gratitude for uninvited and harmful interventions.

Ultimately, this is about Peter Tatchell trying to destroy anyone who does not worship him unconditionally.

What really happened was not someone taking undue offence at some imagined slight. An invite to speak alongside Peter Tatchell was declined, because the invitee disagreed with his views. This is hardly unusual – many people, myself included, who have seen Tatchell’s anti-free-speech methods, his hypocrisy and his attempts to intervene where his is not wanted share those views.

The response was swift and merciless: Tatchell used every available media outlet to complain he was being silenced and no platformed. To complain that a random person who owes him nothing would not spend time to exchange emails with him email and explain to him exactly why he was wrong. (She may have done, for all I know – Tatchell simply ignores any evidence put in front of him and acts like it wasn’t there) Articles in politics.co.uk, Daily Mail, Telegraph, Guardian and even on Newsnight all went on about Peter’s response to this terrible insult. Yet he was never uninvited from any event. The only person being no-platformed was the person who declined the invite. You could say they were no-platforming themselves.

And the only person guilty of publishing this terrible insult is Tatchell himself, taking a private and otherwise unpublished email and using it to destroy the reputation of an activist.

The fury is not about identity politics. It stems from Tatchell misrepresenting event after event to put himself in the best possible light, at the cost of everyone else. It stems from abuse of “free speech” in service of the media elite to mean the ability to arbitrarily demand the time and energy of others.

For those of who have seen this first hand, these accusations are far from absurd. Instead, the uncritical assumption that Tatchell’s views are the only acceptable ones neatly illustrate the terrifying reality: A white cis-gendered man has more power and influence than those they falsely claim to represent.

17 Feb 12:10

What I Want Out of Twitter

by John Scalzi

The Internet is having one of its periodic “Twitter is doomed” spasms, and this means that everyone and their sister has an idea of what Twitter should do in order to save itself. Well, this is what Twitter should do to save itself: Sell itself to Google, which will allow the company to do what it does well (be a place for people to yak about shit for 140 characters at a time) while Google does what it does (mine the shit out of the things people are tweeting in order to sell ads). Done and done.

What I’m more interested in is how Twitter can make itself better, which is a different question than how Twitter can be saved. Twitter’s major issue, as everyone except apparently Twitter’s C-bench knows, is that there are a bunch of shitheads on it who like to roll up to whomever they see as targets (often women and/or people in marginalized groups) and dogpile on them. That’s no good.

I get my own fair share of jerks trying to make my Twitter existence miserable, so over time I’ve developed some strategies to trim those down. The problem here is that they require me to be an expert Twitter user, and do things like use a Twitter client with more features than the native web/mobile interface, and also simply to make rules in terms of interaction that don’t involve Twitter at all (see: the Scamperbeasts Rule). It also requires me to have a certain level of “don’t give a fuck” attitude, which fortunately I have.

But then, I’m a well-off straight white dude, and I can laugh off some mouth breather saying stupid things to me. If I were a woman and getting a constant stream of rape and death threats, I’m not sure I could do that, and I’m not sure that I should be required to be an “expert” user not to have to see this stuff. More to the point, this shit exists on Twitter because the assholes know it’s hard to filter it out; they know their target has to see it first to block or mute it.

I think it’s fine if Twitter’s philosophy is that everyone, including complete shitbags, have a right to an account on the service. But I think it would be useful if Twitter also incorporated into its philosophy, far more robustly than it has, that everyone is allowed to decide who is allowed to impinge on their time, and timeline. There are things that Twitter can probably do, pretty easily, to both give their users control of their timelines and to make it clear to assholes that Twitter is not a great place for them to troll and threaten.

Now, as it happens, Randi Lee Harper (who knows from trolls on Twitter) has a long piece on what she would suggest to make this a reality, complete with estimations of the technical difficulty of making the changes, and she put it up here. I recommend you read it. I also have some thoughts, which I will detail below. Some of what I suggest will overlap with what she has to say; some will not.

So, if Twitter were asking me what I wanted out of Twitter to make it an optimal service for me, here’s what I would suggest, in no particular order:

1. Timed mutes. Before Twitter started being jerks to third party software, I used Janetter to read my timelines, and the thing I loved most about it was that you could specify how long you wanted to mute people, for times as little as 30 minutes to as long as forever. This was great because sometimes I had friends who’d go on a tweet-jag about something I didn’t care about, or one of the people I followed got into it with another and their back-and-forth jammed up my timeline, or just sometimes someone I usually liked exhausted me and I wanted to take a break from them for a week. Likewise, sometimes a random person would tweet something stupid at me and I didn’t want to see that tweet anymore but I didn’t want to exile them out of my timeline forever, because, well, we all say stupid things from time to time.

Neither Twitter’s main web/mobile interface or its Tweetdeck client allows timed mutes, which means I have to choose between muting someone (and then possibly forgetting I wanted to unmute them at some point) or putting up with their crap on my timeline. Timed mutes solve that problem.

2. Mutable phrases/hashtags in the web/mobile Twitter UI. Tweetdeck, which is owned by Twitter, allows you to mute words as well as accounts, and this is handy because most of the jackasses who try to troll me will “@” some account they look up to or want to impress, so by making that second account handle a mutable phrase, I substantially cut down on the amount of stupid I have to see. Having that in the main UI, both on the Web and on mobile, would be super-useful.

3. Make mute/block lists native to Twitter and shareable across clients. I use the Tweetdeck client on mobile through the Web interface, which is horrible and has all sorts of “quirky” bugs. Why do I do it? Because my considerable “mute” list is stored on the Tweetdeck client and not by Twitter itself — which means anyone I’ve muted on Tweetdeck is not automatically muted on Twitter. I’d have to do it all again. I’ve got 1,500 accounts muted (so far). That’s a lot of work to duplicate. If Twitter stored the list and shared it with any clients I used (including its own), that would be fantastic.

4. Make mute/block lists easily shareable through Twitter between followers. I’ve muted 1,500 accounts, as noted above. It would be really useful for friends who don’t want to handcraft a mute list to be able to use mine as a starter. It would be even more useful if they could do it right through Twitter. Now, there are block lists out there right now but they do require you to export/import them in order to share them; as far as I know there’s no way to share mute lists. So making the latter sharable and having it all done in the client is the goal.

5. Robust filtering. Here are some things I would want to control for, in terms of whose responses to me I see in my replies timeline:

  • Account start date: I’d specify that accounts less than two weeks old would not show up in my replies (unless I chose to follow/whitelist them).
  • Account follower number: I’d specify that accounts with less than 100 users would not show up in my replies (unless I chose to follow/whitelist them).
  • Account icon: I’d specify that accounts that haven’t switched their Twitter icon from the default egg icon would not show up in my replies (unless I chose to follow/whitelist them).

Control of just these three things, at those levels, would automatically get rid of probably 90% of all “sockpuppet” accounts, i.e., the supplementary Twitter accounts assholes make to make it look like there are more of them and/or to get around being blocked. It would commensurately likely reduce the number of people sockpuppeting because they would know there’s no point. The numbers above for the account start date and follower number are my own; I think Twitter should allow people to specify the numbers.

Other things to allow filtering of:

  • Profile keywords: If I could filter out every single account that had “#GamerGate” in its profile text, as an example, my replies would have been a lot quieter in the last couple of years.
  • Accounts based on who they follow: Right now I’m thinking of five Twitter accounts of people I think are basically real assholes. I suspect that if you are following all five of them, you are probably also an asshole, and I don’t want to hear from you. In this particular case I think it’d useful to have the filtering be fine-grained, as in, rather than just filtering everyone who followed one account, you’d filter them if they followed Account 1 AND Account 2 AND Account 3 (and so on). It would also be useful to be able to do this more than once, i.e., have more than one follower filter, because often it’s not just one group being annoying.

6. Muting in Notifications and Direct Messages. If you mute someone, you don’t see them in your reply thread. But! As Twitter itself notes: “@ replies and mentions by the muted account will still appear in your Notifications tab,” and “Muting an account does not impact the account’s ability to send you a Direct Message.” It seems to me that if you’ve muted someone, you don’t want to see them. So users should at least have the option to extend muting to notifications and direct messages.

7. The ability to see only replies/notifications from those you follow/whitelist. Twitter kinda does this via private accounts, where the only people who can follow you are those you approve, so the replies will be from those folks. But that’s an ass-backwards way of doing it. Much simpler just to have a “Followers Only” option, either for the tweetstream in general, or for individual tweets (or both! Why not both!). Twitter already does something like this; verified accounts have the option of seeing only the replies/notifications from other verified accounts.

Notice that none of this so far requires Twitter to penalize or punish the accounts being muted or blocked, so mewling cries of “censorship!” can be easily ignored. Leaving aside that Twitter is not the government and as a private entity is allowed to say who may and may not speak on its service (and has a user policy that spells this out in any event), nothing above stops anyone from saying whatever they want on Twitter. It merely means that others are not obliged to listen. No one is guaranteed an audience.

Does this mean that I think Twitter shouldn’t boot and/or report accounts that threaten other users, or use the steps above to ignore or minimize threats of violence? Nope! I think that incorporating the things above will make Twitter less attractive to assholes in a general sense, and that’d be great, but that doesn’t mean that it will stop them completely. More to the point, it’s entirely possible that it’s not safe for some folks to ignore the messages assholes send them. As I’ve noted above, muting really solves a lot of problems for me, but then again, people don’t actively go out of their way to threaten me with rape or death. Not everyone has that luxury.

So for the people who have more to worry about than I do, but also want to have their general timestreams not filled with assholes spewing hate:

8. An optional tab where muted/blocked account replies can go. Wait, if you’ve muted/blocked someone, don’t you not want to see them? Indeed, you don’t! Or at the very least you don’t want to see them in the stream of daily conversation. But if you worry that there will be substantive threats to you among those accounts you’ve muted/blocked, then it’d be useful to have a quarantined area where you can see them and report the worst of them to Twitter. And that Twitter actually did something about them, with respect to their presence on the service, and when necessary (and agreed to by the person being threatened) in reporting the threatening accounts to appropriate authorities.

So these are the things I want out of Twitter, and not, say, tweets being longer. Note that I think having tweets be more than 140 characters will really mess with the character of Twitter and will make it into a second-rate Facebook. We already have a second-rate Facebook, called Facebook. Rather than potentially doing silly things like that, just give users more control of their own timestreams. It’ll make Twitter better, and something that people will still want to be part of.


17 Feb 12:06

From the E-Mailbag…

by evanier

Ross May sent me this and I thought I'd answer it here…

Perhaps you, or one of your knowledgeable friends can help me answer a question. I'm a younger man and feel I have a good handle on most Looney Tunes jokes that reference pop culture from previous decades. Sometimes a character, especially Daffy, will exclaim "Aaaaaagony!" and feign anguish or even dying. It shows up enough I can tell it's a catch phrase or some reference, but I can't find out from where. I thought this would be up your alley of expertise.

Sadly, it is. At the studio where the cartoons were made, there was a gentleman named Smokey Garner who was a film editor and a projectionist. When he was given a difficult job to do, he would usually moan, "Aaaaagony, aaaaagony!" It became a catch phrase around the studio and it found its way into a number of cartoons. (So did his name. In What's Cookin', Doc?, Bugs calls to the off-camera projectionist and says, "Okay, Smokey! Roll 'em!")

Whether Mr. Garner got the phrase from somewhere else, no one knows. But that's where the gag men got it from.

The post From the E-Mailbag… appeared first on News From ME.

16 Feb 17:19

The universe has a high (but not infinite) Sleep Number

by Scott

As everyone knows, this was a momentous week in the history of science.  And I don’t need to tell you why: the STOC and CCC accepted paper lists finally came out.

Haha, kidding!  I meant, we learned this week that gravitational waves were directly detected for the first time, a hundred years after Einstein first predicted them (he then reneged on the prediction, then reinstated it, then reneged again, then reinstated it a second time—see Daniel Kennefick’s article for some of the fascinating story).

By now, we all know some of the basic parameters here: a merger of two black holes, ~1.3 billion light-years away, weighing ~36 and ~29 solar masses respectively, which (when they merged) gave off 3 solar masses’ worth of energy in the form of gravitational waves—in those brief 0.2 seconds, radiating more watts of power than all the stars in the observable universe combined.  By the time the waves reached earth, they were only stretching and compressing space by 1 part in 4×1021—thus, changing the lengths of the 4-kilometer arms of LIGO by 10-18 meters (1/1000 the diameter of a proton).  But this was detected, in possibly the highest-precision measurement ever made.

As I read the historic news, there’s one question that kept gnawing at me: how close would you need to have been to the merging black holes before you could, you know, feel the distortion of space?  I made a guess, assuming the strength of gravitational waves fell off with distance as 1/r2.  Then I checked Wikipedia and learned that the strength falls off only as 1/r, which completely changes the situation, and implies that the answer to my question is: you’d need to be very close.  Even if you were only as far from the black-hole cataclysm as the earth is from the sun, I get that you’d be stretched and squished by a mere ~50 nanometers (this interview with Jennifer Ouellette and Amber Stuver says 165 nanometers, but as a theoretical computer scientist, I try not to sweat factors of 3).  Even if you were 3000 miles from the black holes—New-York/LA distance—I get that the gravitational waves would only stretch and squish you by around a millimeter.  Would you feel that?  Not sure.  At 300 miles, it would be maybe a centimeter—though presumably the linearized approximation is breaking down by that point.  (See also this Physics StackExchange answer, which reaches similar conclusions, though again off from mine by factors of 3 or 4.)  Now, the black holes themselves were orbiting about 200 miles from each other before they merged.  So, the distance at which you could safely feel their gravitational waves, isn’t too far from the distance at which they’d rip you to shreds and swallow you!

In summary, to stretch and squeeze spacetime by just a few hundred nanometers per meter, along the surface of a sphere whose radius equals our orbit around the sun, requires more watts of power than all the stars in the observable universe give off as starlight.  People often say that the message of general relativity is that matter bends spacetime “as if it were a mattress.”  But they should add that the reason it took so long for humans to notice this, is that it’s a really friggin’ firm mattress, one that you need to bounce up and down on unbelievably hard before it quivers, and would probably never want to sleep on.

As if I needed to say it, this post is an invitation for experts to correct whatever I got wrong.  Public humiliation, I’ve found, is a very fast and effective way to learn an unfamiliar field.

16 Feb 12:26

American-style socialism (Do you wish to continue this transaction?)

by Fred Clark

Back in the early 1990s, you never knew what you were gonna get when you went to an ATM. Your bank might charge you a fee to withdraw cash — your own cash — from the machine. There might be an additional fee from the network, or from the host bank, or the vendor. You might not learn about any of those fees until after the machine spit out your little receipt, informing you that the $20 you withdrew, and an additional $1, or $2, or $4, had been subtracted from your account.

But that receipt might not mention the fee at all, in which case you wouldn’t learn about it until you got your monthly bank statement in the mail (there was no “online” yet, for most people), or until those hidden fees bumped your balance into the red, sending you into the cascading hell of overdraft charges followed by overdraft charges on those charges.

RC1977

The 1977 first edition is the one to read.

Congress addressed this by amending the law regulating ATMs to require full disclosure of any such fees prior to the transaction. This disclosure requirement was a Good Thing.

Granted, it was a rather modest Good Thing. The change in the law didn’t set any caps or limits on such fees — so you might still be charged $2 or $4 for access to $20 of your own money, skimming a percentage that would make a loan shark blush. And while the change might help you to avoid overdraft hell, it did nothing else to limit banks’ ability to continue stealing the $30 billion or so they transfer from working people to themselves through that racket every year. But still, it was a small but positive step.

It was also an eminently capitalist step. It was a market-driven measure designed to allow free markets to function more efficiently by ensuring that consumers were informed about the costs of these transactions. Such information, the theory says, gives consumers a choice, empowering the invisible hand of competition. In practice, of course, such information might only tell consumers that they had no choice — that their only options for accessing their own money all charged such fees, and that even if they decided to walk all over town looking for a cheaper ATM they might never find one (I often did, and then usually didn’t). But over time, the theory said, the information would create the demand for other options, and that demand would eventually create a supply to meet it. In some places, that happened, sort of. In other places it didn’t. (Those other places, quite often, were less-white neighborhoods, because America.)

It would be churlish, though, to blame this positive piece of legislation for not transforming the entire world. What it did accomplish was limited and modest, but that limited and modest accomplishment was unambiguously positive.

Back when President Bill Clinton was signing laws like this one, the word that came to be used for such modest-but-positive measures was “Clintonian.” Bill Clinton had a good instinct for politics as the art of the possible — for identifying small positive steps like this and making them happen. Such things might not be revolutionary, but they resulted in tangible improvements in the daily life of millions of Americans. It’s a really big country, after all, and even minor reforms could, on a national scale, add up to substantial increases in fairness and the general welfare.

But while this law requiring disclosure of ATM fees was certainly Clintonian in its effect, and it was signed into law by Bill Clinton, we shouldn’t give him all the credit for getting it passed. A lot of the impetus for that law came from Rep. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, who worked hard to get the bill through the House of Representatives.

Sanders caucused with the House Democrats but he was officially an Independent who, famously, preferred to identify as a “socialist.” (Hence the Vermont joke, dating back to his time as mayor there, of referring to the state’s largest city* as the “People’s Republic of Burlington.”)

Sanders’ role in this legislation is why I remember it, and why I wound up referring to it, often, throughout the 1990s.

At the time, I was working for Ron Sider at Evangelicals for Social Action. Ron is best known as the author of a terrific book called Rich Christians in an Age of Hunger. That book seemed to get a lot of people very angry — particularly those who might qualify as its titular Rich Christians. And a lot of those angry people responded angrily by hurling the harshest, nastiest word they could think of: socialist.

This was silly and dumb, of course. Ron wasn’t a socialist, he was a Mennonite. The core of his book was a call for voluntary, private, personal generosity — what he called a “graduated tithe.” It was, essentially, a plea to “live simply that others may simply live.” He wanted readers to decide on a standard of living that seemed, to them, to be enough, and then to commit voluntarily to give a bit more of their more-than-enough to help the many millions of people who have less-than-enough.

But still, whenever I went out as a representative of ESA, this “socialist” thing was something I’d have to deal with. For many in the white evangelical world we were trying to reach, the only thing they’d heard about ESA and Ron Sider was that word. So I’d have to point out, as in the paragraph above, that Ron’s call for deeper voluntary personal generosity was not, in fact, anything at all like socialism. And sometimes, to help people get past that, I would talk about the law requiring disclosure of ATM fees.

People knew about this law because they’d seen it in action every time they used an ATM. That law, I pointed out, was passed thanks to the only member of Congress who refers to himself as a socialist. Here in America, in the 1990s, I would say, this is what “socialism” has come to mean: The very modest claim that banks should be required to inform you that they’re about to charge you two bucks for the privilege of access to your own money. This Red Menace doesn’t try to stop those banks from charging you what amounts to 10 or 20 percent for a $20 withdrawal, it just requires them to tell you about it beforehand. So, I said, half-joking, if that’s what “socialism” means these days, then I’m not sure it’s really something you need to be afraid of.

Anyway, even though I used the modest scope of that law as a kind of punchline for years, it was still, as I said above, a Good Thing. Rep. Sanders deserves real credit for pushing for it and President Clinton deserves real credit for signing it.

It took a couple more decades before we’d see legislation that even began to tackle the more substantial matter of the way ATMs and ATM fees fuel the overdraft racket that transfers tens of billions of dollars every year away from the working class and into the pockets of the banksters. That didn’t happen until Dodd-Frank was signed into law by President Barack Obama in 2010.

Dodd-Frank is a big, sprawling mess of an omnibus law, and whether it does enough or goes far enough to restrain the “too big to fail” banks and to prevent a repeat of the Great Recession is still a matter of debate. (It probably does not.) But apart from that aspect of the law, Dodd-Frank also includes a bunch of other, more modest measures — the kinds of things we used to describe as Clintonian. My favorite of those is the establishment of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which is awesome.

I don’t suppose the CFPB qualifies as revolutionary either, but it’s changing your life, for the better, in dozens of modest little ways. Quite often, it works through the same modest mechanism of disclosure discussed above. Disclosure and opt-in measures haven’t halted the banksters’ annual theft of billions of dollars through the overdraft racket, but the amount of that annual wealth-transfer is, for the first time, going down instead of increasing. And the CFPB has had even more success going after payday lenders and the shadow-banking industry that fleeces the unbanked poorest of the poor even worse than Wall Street treats those of us who can afford a checking account. Whether or not the general public views Richard Cordray as a “revolutionary,” the banksters sure do.

I realize that all the good that the CFPB is doing is still not enough. There’s more to do and more that must be done. Much more. But I wouldn’t want to lose the tangible progress CFPB has made and is making. “All Cris Carter does is catch touchdown passes,” former Philadelphia Eagles coach Buddy Ryan said before sending the receiver off to a hall-of-fame career in Minnesota. I know what Ryan meant, but still, it turns out that actually catching those touchdown passes is kind of important.

- – - – - – - – - – - -

* The term “largest city” really means something very different from what you’re thinking once it’s qualified with the words “in Vermont.” Burlington has a population of about 42,000, which is roughly the size of Sayreville, N.J., or of Fairfield, Ohio, and quite a bit smaller than Farmington, New Mexico. But to my brother-in-law and his neighbors in the Northeast Kingdom, Burlington is still the city – a bit too crowded for their liking. Plus it’s full of transplanted Flatlanders. Burlington may be the smallest largest-city in any state, but it’s big enough that you can tell when you’ve found it — unlike Vermont’s state capital of Montpelier, which I drove through, twice, without realizing that I had done so. Vermont is very … Vermont.

** It’s helpful to compare Ron Sider’s gentle pleading with, for example, everything that every Christian ever wrote about wealth and poverty from the first century through the time of Augustine. Those Christians taught, unanimously, that superfluity is theft — that possessing any more than what you need for your daily bread was no different than stealing from the poor through violence. And they wrote detailed sermons and screeds outlining just what they believed counted as superfluous possessions.

Maybe those Christians could be described as, in some way, “socialist,” but it was just dishonest and wrong to use that term for the sort of thing Ron Sider was talking about. Heck, if the Apostle Peter had been a fan of Rich Christians in an Age of Hunger, he would’ve commended Ananias and Sapphira for their generosity and sent them on their merry way.

 

16 Feb 12:07

Scalia

by Fred Clark

1. As I noted on Twitter, when a great comedian dies, we tell jokes because it would be inappropriate and disrespectful not to do so. Antonin Scalia was a sharp-tongued, pugnacious, partisan political brawler — a man who loved and lived for contentious political argument. It is entirely appropriate, then, that his death should spark another fierce round of such argument. That honors his memory.

2. It is ironic, though, that even before initial reports of his death had been confirmed and picked up by national news outlets, Scalia’s political allies were already publicly advocating that the constitutional process for appointing his successor should be abandoned. Using the occasion of his death to score partisan political points, even before his body was cold, is in keeping with the spirit of the man. That much he would have approved of. But the specifics of that argument — rejecting the Constitution itself and rejecting the clear original intent of its authors — goes against everything that Scalia ever argued for.

3. Or, perhaps, it doesn’t. Maybe it simply unmasks the lofty rhetoric of Scalia’s proclaimed devotion as nothing more than a convenient cover for the raw pursuit of power.

It’s something of a major theme here, after all, that crude and simplistic hermeneutics dishonor and distort the texts they claim to revere. “For the letter kills, but the spirit gives life,” and a proof-texting devotion to the infallible letter always seems to be a mask for power — for the defense and preservation of injustice and oppression. This is the actual function of such hermeneutics, so it’s hard to accept it is not also their intended function. Whatever the intent, though, the practical function of Scalia’s fundamentalist hermeneutic proved to be the same as the that of the fundamentalist biblical hermeneutics that inspired it. And just as erratically, sporadically principled.

4. I’ll give him this, though: Rewatch Stephen Colbert’s legendary White House Correspondents Dinner performance. Watch the facial expressions and body language of President George W. Bush and of the White House press as Colbert directs his jokes toward them and the room settles into an icy quiet. Then watch Antonin Scalia howl with laughter as one of the few people in that room — other than Colbert himself — who seemed to be enjoying the evening, even when the jokes were at his expense.

Update: Here’s Stephen Colbert recounting Scalia’s response to what he calls his “speech” at the White House. While the ghosts of Richard Pryor and Lenny Bruce and Bill Hicks were singing gloria in excelsis, Colbert himself couldn’t even leave when it was over and had to return to his seat in a room that now hated him. Except for one person:

Click here to view the embedded video.

5. I’m not good at predicting or gaming out all the three-dimensional chess of national politics. I have no idea what a sudden vacancy on the Supreme Court means for the Republican and Democratic primary races, and I’m not interested in reading lots of think pieces speculating on that. But I think I do understand what’s at stake in replacing Scalia on the court. As Rick Hasen put it, “It is the beginning of the most important civil rights debate of our time.”

6. I also have no particular insight on who might be appointed by the president to replace Scalia. I can Google the same bunch of names you may have seen, but I have no idea how to evaluate the likelihood of any of them being named next.

It has been reassuring, though, to read so many articles speculating on the next nominee because of how emphatically they insist that people my age are very, very young. Someone my age — 47 going on 48 — is routinely described in such articles as astonishingly youthful, with decades of productive work ahead of them. That’s always nice to read.

I just wish prospective employers took the same view of applicants’ résumés, because in the rest of the job market, people my age are unacceptably old. If they see that you graduated from college in 1990, they figure you’ve only got 20-some years to retirement, and that you’ll probably die before that, so why even bother?

7. The San Antonio Express-News did a pretty terrific job being first to report this story.

[Update to add one more.]

8. Scalia’s death also underscores the wisdom of the best decision that former Pope Benedict XVI ever made — stepping aside and resigning instead of dying in office. That allowed those of us who had great cause to celebrate the end of his papacy to do so without that celebration getting tangled up with the event of his death.

Supreme Court justices, like popes, are granted vast power as ultimate arbiters — power mostly unchecked by anything other than their own integrity and their purported commitment to principle. To be granted such enormous power until the day you die means, inevitably, that the day you die will be a day of celebration for everyone you’ve wielded that power against. The only ways to prevent your death from being the basis for such celebration would be either to: A) follow Benedict’s example and step aside before you die in office; or B) maybe use your power justly, instead of as a tool to grind down and oppress, so that your death doesn’t have to be widely perceived as a source of liberation.

16 Feb 10:23

Happy Massacre Day

by Ovid

What up dweebs
I hope your yesterday was good
and contained exactly the right amount of genital contact
based on your personal preferences
and also I hope you touched a butt
BUT ENOUGH SMALL TALK
it has come to my attention
that many of you don’t even know what yesterday was ABOUT
and NOT just because you all have drinking problems
so let me tell you what Valentine’s day is all about my friends
it is all about murder

Right so we’re in Ancient Rome
I know it doesn’t look like it
I know it looks like your computer
but stop fucking questioning every step of this process
i am trying to tell you a story and you are being very rude
anyway there’s this emperor named Claudius
and he’s got an army
but the army is like 85% weenies by volume
and he is trying to get them hyped to go die for him
so he’s like “hmm
what do some of the angriest shittiest dudes I know have in common?
A complete disregard for others …
possible glandular problems …
Segways, but I can’t afford to buy enough of those
OH I KNOW
THEY’RE ALL SINGLE
Okay from now on soldiers aren’t allowed to get married.
WAR:
SOLVED.”

It seems like this rule would make dudes just quit the army
thus ending war forever
but it is doubtful that Claudius had a noble endgame here
also military service was pretty mandatory
so instead of a bunch of blissed-out ex-soldiers getting their dicks touched
you have a bunch of pissed off soldiers glumly touching their own dicks
AND THAT’S WHERE SAINT VALENTINE COMES IN

Okay yeah I know what that sounds like
and no, Saint Val didn’t touch anybody’s dick
they used to disqualify you from sainthood for shit like that
I don’t know why
I for one would love a couple openly gay saints up in the pantheon
No, Valentine sees all these soldiers and their blued-up balls
and he’s like “THIS IS TOTALLY UNCOOL
YOUNG MEN SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET MARRIED WHENEVER THEY WANT
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEFORE THEY GO OFF TO WAR
TO GET KILLED AND LEAVE THEIR TEENAGED BRIDES IN A WORLD OF PAIN
SOMETHING MUST BE DONE”
and it turns out it’s really easy to marry people to each other
so Valentine just does that a lot
becoming the Ancient Roman equivalent
of a Las Vegas Elvis impersonator
for lots of horny teens.

Obviously Claudius finds out about this
because even though the marriages are secret
what the fuck is the point of a secret marriage
so Claudius arrests Saint Valentine and is like “dude
could you stop marrying my soldiers to people all over the place?
also while you’re at it could you stop being Christian?
thaaaaanks”
and Valentine is like “What no”
and Claudius is like “Oh shit okay I guess go die then”

So Valentine’s in jail now
and he’s bored so he starts talking to his jailer
and it turns out the jailer has a daughter who is blind
and Saint Valentine is like “Oh dude that sucks
I’m gonna die soon and I have all these godbuxx saved up
so how about I just use those to cure your daughter’s blindness?”
and the jailer is like “Whoa, thanks dude!
I do not deserve this literally at all!
Anyway it’s morning now and we have to behead you
thanks for everything!”

But the V-man does one last thing before he dies:
he sends that daughter a nice card with some flowers
and he signs it “From Your Valentine”
which is a weirdly romantic thing for a saint to do
but I guess he figured he was about to die
so he might as well put it out there.

Yeah then he died
and everybody more or less forgot about him
until his holy day turned out to be a convenient excuse
to fuck each other’s brains out once a year
or shoot a bunch of rival bootleggers
depending on your profession.

Anyway the moral of the story is pretty obvious:
get a job guarding political prisoners
apparently the fringe benefits are amazing.

The end.

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15 Feb 19:05

How to Apply the Laws of Physics to Personal Relationships

by Scott Meyer

I remember when I wrote this comic, Missy read the first panel and said, “That’s so lame.” That’s when I knew I’d struck a nerve!

Of course, the idea of using women’s revulsion at the idea of dating Rick to construct a motor is not practical. It would be much simpler to have women push a car and dangle Rick out on a pole behind them, like the opposite of a carrot on a stick.

Note from Missy: I don’t remember the comment Scott mentions above. I actually really like “I must destroy you.” I wish I had the temerity to say things like that in real life.

 

You can comment on this comic on Facebook.

As always, thanks for using my Amazon Affiliate links (USUKCanada).

15 Feb 18:59

16 Free Award-Nominated Stories

by Kristine Kathryn Rusch

Asimov Cover 0815 jpeg copyAsimov’s Science Fiction has started a new feature on its website. Every year, Asimov’s asks its readers to choose the best stories of the year. The top five in each category get notified, and then Asimov’s reveals the winners at a ceremony in May.

This year, Asimov’s has put the nominees up for free on its website. The writers had to give permission for this, of course, and only one didn’t. The number sixteen reflects that, along with two ties, apparently. The top five sf poems are up as well.

I have a story in the Best Short Story category, and a novella in the Best Novella category. The short story is one of my favorites. The novella is the same novella that will be in three Year’s Bests this year—”Inhuman Garbage” which is a standalone part of my Anniversary Day Saga.

ASFMARCH2015_finalistWhat I’m most thrilled about, though, are the other nominees. As usual, because of all my other reading, I’m behind on my issues of Asimov’s. So I get to read the others as well. I’ve read a few, like David Gerrold’s spectacular “The Great Pan American Airship Mystery, or, Why I Murdered Robert Benchley.” But I missed a bunch of the others, including a new Allen Steele, Robert Reed, and Sarah Pinsker.

In addition to those authors and me, you’ll find fiction from Michael Swanwick & Gregory Frost, Sean Monaghan, Django Wexler, Eugene Fischer, Nick Wolven, Will McIntosh, Ian Creasey, Sam J. Miller, Suzanne Palmer, and Caroline M. Yoachim. Suzanne Palmer also has a poem in the top five, along with Geoffrey A. Landis, Joshua Gage, Robert Frazier, and James Valvis.

Lots and lots and lots of great reading.

These stories will be available until May. Let your friends know!

14 Feb 18:52

Things at Autism Events that Make Me Uncomfortable

by Neurodivergent K
This post is inspired by an Autism Speaks walk & an Autism Society of Oregon "adult" conference several years ago).

-Parents with adult offspring talking for and about them while they stand right there mortified.

-Obviously sensory unfriendly surroundings (loud thuddy music? really?)

-Cognitive dissonance on full display--Lee Grossman & other CEOs who talk about 'these kids' at events ostensibly about adults? I'm looking at you.

-Being the only person to call people on their bullshit.

-Being scolded for this.

-Being thanked privately for this. What the fuck.

-The double standard for autistics & allistics.

-Grossly inappropriate cure the kids! talks at 'adult' conferences.

-Erasing of adults who are likely to be pushed into the cracks (you know, those of us who speak & can make you think we know things).

-Assumption that we have Ability A because we can do Task X.

-Being expected to be a universal translator.

-Being erased because I'm cute, female, and athletic.

-Parent-centered everything.

-Being hit on. A lot. Persistently. When I say not interested. Ad nauseum.

-Scaremongering, from anyone.

-The looks I get for taking care of my sensory needs.

-Being talked to like a toddler.

-Allistic professionals' continued insistence that their Unethical Treatment is ok & browbeating me to try to get me to agree.

-The continued pressure to cede my voice in autism issues because as an autistic person I clearly don't know what I need or want.

This was initially written in 2010. The only thing that has changed is Lee Grossman isn't still the CEO of Autism Society.
14 Feb 18:42

Fast Food Forgery

by evanier

Surfing YouTube, I keep coming across videos in which someone tells you how to make a McDonald's hamburger at home. Why does anyone want to make a McDonald's hamburger at home? Did these suddenly become hard to obtain? Or too expensive? It would cost me less money to go to McDonald's and buy a hamburger than it would to purchase the ingredients to make one at home. It would also cost me less time to walk to the nearest McDonald's and buy one, plus the bathroom at McDonald's is probably cleaner than mine.

Also, while I was there I could buy fries to go with it and get free ketchup. There are also YouTube videos about how to replicate McDonald's fries at home and again, it would less time and money to walk to that McDonald's and buy fries than to make them myself.

mcdonaldsburger01

The one you make at home will not look like this. Then again, neither will the one you get at the drive-thru.

Maybe the premise here is that I could make a better McDonald's hamburger at home than I can get at a McDonald's? No, that's not logical. If it was better, it wouldn't be a McDonald's hamburger. And in those videos, they usually promise you that if you follow their instructions carefully, what you will get will be indistinguishable from what you'd get at a McDonald's. I haven't tried following any of these tutorials but I'm skeptical.

For one thing, they never mention anything about wearing a paper hat. I would think that would be essential. You might also need to pay yourself poorly.

For another, they tell you to go out and buy whatever kind of meat and bun you can find. I would guess your ketchup, mustard, onions and maybe even pickles wouldn't be far from what McDonald's uses. But don't you have to freeze the beef for a few months and then defrost it to get that McDonald's texture? And isn't the flavor of a McDonald's hamburger about 65% bun? How can a different kind of bun result in the exact same burger?

But I keep coming back to the Why? in all this. Why, if you're going to cook, cook one of those? I can understand trying to replicate the bouillabaisse made at Chez Michel in Marseilles, which many food critics hail as the best in the world. You'd impress the hell out of your friends if you could serve that and besides, how often do you find yourself near Chez Michel? (How often do I find myself near a McDonald's? Practically every time I go anywhere.) And you almost never find great bouillabaisse on a Dollar Menu.

This just does not seem like a worthwhile endeavor to me. Then again, neither did me writing or you reading this blog post and yet we both did just that. Go figure.

The post Fast Food Forgery appeared first on News From ME.

12 Feb 11:34

Traditionalists Rebuffed as Parliament Turns the Page on Parchment

by PG

From The New York Times:

For centuries, acts of Parliament and other important documents have been inscribed on vellum, a parchment made from calfskin. Magna Carta, which King John signed 800 years ago last year, was written on vellum. So was the Domesday Book compiled in 1086, 20 years after William the Conqueror sailed across the English Channel.

This ancient tradition has survived wars, revolutions and the rise and fall of the British Empire. Now, the use of vellum, which has been a contentious issue for more than a decade, has fallen victim to austerity.

The House of Lords, Britain’s unelected upper chamber of Parliament, is finally moving to replace the calfskin with high-quality archival paper, calling the move which will come into force in April a necessary — and thrifty — adaptation to the digital age.

The House of Lords — with 819 members, the world’s largest legislative assembly outside China — said the move would save about 80,000 pounds, or nearly $116,000, annually. It said that using animal skin to painstakingly record and preserve laws was hardly efficient, given, among other things, that it is more unwieldy and difficult to store than paper. It can take the skins of as many as 130 calves to produce a 500-page book. Moreover, archival paper is surprisingly durable.

“Currently, the oldest paper records in the Lords date back to the early 16th century, and are only a few years younger than the oldest vellum record in the Archives, which is an Act of Parliament from 1497,” the House of Lords said in an email statement on Wednesday.

. . . .

James Gray, a Conservative member of the House of Commons, called the move a reckless breach of tradition and argued that inscribing laws on vellum conferred on them the dignity they deserved. “Vellum lasts 5,000 years, while there is no guarantee that electronic means of preserving documents will be there 1,000 years from now,” he said in a phone interview on Wednesday, noting wryly that the once wildly popular floppy disk had long since been consigned to history’s dustbin.

Indeed, historians, archivists and librarians around the world have wrestled with the problem of digital decay: There is no guarantee that today’s electronic document-storage formats, like PDFs, will survive.

Link to the rest at The New York Times

PG is an unashamed Anglophile and loves stories like this.

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12 Feb 11:28

Jim Gave The Land To The Landlords

by noreply@blogger.com (Gareth Epps)
Land reform and support for the rights of crofters and tenant farmers has for over a century been a keystone Liberal value; a symbol of what the party has stood for.  "The Land" with its clarion call for reform is the anthem of Liberalism.  Since the days of Gladstone, the party has stood up against landowner vested interests, backed invariably by the Tories.

Until now.  This week in a Scottish Parliament committee on the Land Reform Bill, Jim Hume MSP for the Liberal Democrats voted with the Tories against enhanced protection for tenant farmers.  As Scottish commentator Lesley Riddoch put it, "shameful for the party that introduced land rights for crofters in 1886".

Hume has form, having recently voted against introducing Marine Protection Areas.

But what this serves to emphasise is not only the disastrous decline of the Lib Dems in Scotland and in particular rural Scotland; but the party's total lack of vision and direction.

Since at least the 2014 referendum, the battle of ideas in Scottish politics has been vacated by Labour and the Lib Dems.  Astonishing in a country with a proud history of radicalism, the work of groups like the Liberal Futures group is sadly ignored by too many.  Radical politics is alive and well; but exclusively on the pro-independence side of the divide through groups like Common Weal.  As Riddoch points out, the opportunity even exists for Scotland to deliver the Liberal holy grail of a Land Value Tax; it was one of three options set out by a cross-party commission on local taxation which reported in late 2015, alongside a local income tax.  The Scottish Lib Dems have been silent on the subject.

With only tentative steps taken towards the reform of Scotland's land laws (the land is in the ownership of fewer people than in any country in the developed world) under the Lib-Lab government in Holyrood from 1999-2007, the Nationalists have moved from inertia to strengthening legislation.  It appears this political territory has been entirely ceded by the Lib Dems, in spite of the party's consistently strong support in rural Scotland through the darkest days of the last century and until the recent SNP landslides.

Liberals have since last May's catastrophe talked (though not always acted) about clarifying and defining Liberal values in order to give the Liberal Democrats an identity and detoxify the party from association with hated Tory policies.  In Scotland where the party alienated 45% of the population by identifying itself as 'unionist' and where the Tories are hated even more, learning from past mistakes is at least as important.

Instead - and with the right wing political market crowded and a relatively popular Scottish Tory leader in Ruth Davidson, the mistakes are being compounded and repeated.

The party in Scotland has an opportunity to partially redeem itself in March by voting the right way.  However, the obituary for its abject performance in May's election and possible wipeout could be written now.  It urgently needs to present a coherent picture of what it stands for.
12 Feb 11:28

What Goes Around...

by Judith Tarr

I'm in another Storybundle this month--another of those "Women In" collections, this time Fantasy, and as usual it's a great communal experience. We all get together, help each other push the bundle, and read other's books. It's fun, it's profitable. It spreads the word about a variety of books and writers.

This one has me thinking about the whole "Women In" phenomenon, and where fantasy used to be versus where it is now. What goes around comes around, but there's always a new angle to it, one way or another.

It's been interesting watching fantasy evolve out of the primordial soup that was, primarily, Tolkien. There were other ancestors, of course, and other strains of fantasy, but by the end of the Sixties, Tolkien was the one name that ruled them all.

Out of Tolkien came the clones. Some were so close that they followed the actual plot outline of The Lord of the Rings, and a handful of those sold as well as if not actually better than the original. There were actually readers who complained that Tolkien was a bad copy of his own bad copies.

And that was the Seventies, and a good chunk of the Eighties.

In the Eighties, something happened to the perception of fantasy as a genre. Very Serious People decided that fantasy was easy, fluffy, comfy, and you just made it up as you went along. It therefore followed, by the logic of such things, that it was full of girl cooties. Real writers wrote science fiction, which was brawny, male, and preferably hard.

Of course there were guy fantasy writers, and some of them were monster bestsellers, but for the most part, fantasy was the province of the Female Fantasy Writer. I still have my pink FFW button from that era, and the pink fluffy bunny it's pinned to.

It all seems rather quaint now, and it's been pretty much forgotten as the women's side of history so often is. Somewhere in the Nineties, fantasy stopped being a girl thing and turned into a guy thing, so that come the new millennium, Very Serious People were very seriously declaring that women were just beginning to enter the male realm of fantasy.

The one exception being urban fantasy: you know, the one with the tight leather pants and the vampires and werewolves. And a few guys making buckets of money off it, but mostly it's full of girl cooties. Real fantasy is brawny, male, and epic.

Nobody is going on about how you just make it up as you go along, which is a big improvement. But the old divide is still there, and so is the age-old putdown of the women's side.

This is an old song. Really, really old--as old as what we know of human history.

A few days ago, through my Twitter feed, I happened across Mary Beard's lecture on "The Public Voice of Women." It's a couple of years old, but the subject matter is truly timeless.

Beard argues that women's voices have been diminished and silenced for millennia. Women were told to shut up in Greece, in Rome, in the Western Middle Ages (and from what I know of history in general, this is by no means unique to Western Europe). She lists example after example and source after source. It's endemic. It's deeply embedded in the culture.

What's amazing to me is not so much that this has been going on for so long, but that it's now being called out, and people are making an actual effort to change it. Of course there's backlash, and some of it is seriously ugly. But the ugliness is being called out, too. It's no longer possible to just reflexively diss the female voice. There are, finally, consequences.

That's major. It can get really, really tiresome to fight the same battles over and over and over again, and to watch the older battles and the women who fought them be systematically and consistently erased. But when I realize how deeply ingrained the silencing of women is, I find it all the more remarkable that there's actual, perceptible progress. Women's voices are actually being heard--and sometimes even being taken seriously.

Just watching television from the Sixties, or reading books from the Seventies, I can see how perceptions have changed. I'm right now in the middle of a reread series for Tor.com, rereading the early works of one of the foremothers of modern fantasy, Katherine Kurtz. The books are holding up, for me, much better than I ever thought they would, but their gender politics is dire. It's also completely in period, and in character, for the early Seventies when the books were published.

In these books, beginning with Deryni Rising, the protagonists are all male, and the medieval setting is heavily and unquestioningly patriarchal. The female characters are few, and every one is in some way problematical. They're all either evil sorceresses, flutterbrained idiots, or Noble Females On Pedestals. None of them is a rounded human being. That's reserved for the male characters.

And that was completely normal and unobjectionable around about 1972. It really is striking that, less than forty-five years later, it's not only seen as a problem, it's no longer the standard approach to female characters in fantasy. Even if the writer doesn't honestly believe in women as human beings, he still comes under pressure to make a show of writing Strong Female Characters.

That's a sea change. Will it last? Now there's a question.

11 Feb 16:46

A Pirate Bay for scientific papers.

A Pirate Bay for scientific papers.
11 Feb 16:20

Gravitational Waves at Last

by Sean Carroll

ONCE upon a time, there lived a man who was fascinated by the phenomenon of gravity. In his mind he imagined experiments in rocket ships and elevators, eventually concluding that gravity isn’t a conventional “force” at all — it’s a manifestation of the curvature of spacetime. He threw himself into the study of differential geometry, the abstruse mathematics of arbitrarily curved manifolds. At the end of his investigations he had a new way of thinking about space and time, culminating in a marvelous equation that quantified how gravity responds to matter and energy in the universe.

Not being one to rest on his laurels, this man worked out a number of consequences of his new theory. One was that changes in gravity didn’t spread instantly throughout the universe; they traveled at the speed of light, in the form of gravitational waves. In later years he would change his mind about this prediction, only to later change it back. Eventually more and more scientists became convinced that this prediction was valid, and worth testing. They launched a spectacularly ambitious program to build a technological marvel of an observatory that would be sensitive to the faint traces left by a passing gravitational wave. Eventually, a century after the prediction was made — a press conference was called.

Chances are that everyone reading this blog post has heard that LIGO, the Laser Interferometric Gravitational-Wave Observatory, officially announced the first direct detection of gravitational waves. Two black holes, caught in a close orbit, gradually lost energy and spiraled toward each other as they emitted gravitational waves, which zipped through space at the speed of light before eventually being detected by our observatories here on Earth. Plenty of other places will give you details on this specific discovery, or tutorials on the nature of gravitational waves, including in user-friendly comic/video form.

What I want to do here is to make sure, in case there was any danger, that nobody loses sight of the extraordinary magnitude of what has been accomplished here. We’ve become a bit blasé about such things: physics makes a prediction, it comes true, yay. But we shouldn’t take it for granted; successes like this reveal something profound about the core nature of reality.

Some guy scribbles down some symbols in an esoteric mixture of Latin, Greek, and mathematical notation. Scribbles originating in his tiny, squishy human brain. (Here are what some of those those scribbles look like, in my own incredibly sloppy handwriting.) Other people (notably Rainer Weiss, Ronald Drever, and Kip Thorne), on the basis of taking those scribbles extremely seriously, launch a plan to spend hundreds of millions of dollars over the course of decades. They concoct an audacious scheme to shoot laser beams at mirrors to look for modulated displacements of less than a millionth of a billionth of a centimeter — smaller than the diameter of an atomic nucleus. Meanwhile other people looked at the sky and tried to figure out what kind of signals they might be able to see, for example from the death spiral of black holes a billion light-years away. You know, black holes: universal regions of death where, again according to elaborate theoretical calculations, the curvature of spacetime has become so pronounced that anything entering can never possibly escape. And still other people built the lasers and the mirrors and the kilometers-long evacuated tubes and the interferometers and the electronics and the hydraulic actuators and so much more, all because they believed in those equations. And then they ran LIGO (and other related observatories) for several years, then took it apart and upgraded to Advanced LIGO, finally reaching a sensitivity where you would expect to see real gravitational waves if all that fancy theorizing was on the right track. 

And there they were. On the frikkin’ money.

ligo-signal

Our universe is mind-bogglingly vast, complex, and subtle. It is also fantastically, indisputably knowable.

yeah_science_breaking_bad

I got a hard time a few years ago for predicting that we would detect gravitational waves within five years. And indeed, the track record of such predictions has been somewhat spotty. Outside Kip Thorne’s office you can find this record of a lost bet — after he predicted that we would see them before 1988. (!)

kip-bet-1

But this time around I was pretty confident. The existence of overly-optimistic predictions in the past doesn’t invalidate the much-better predictions we can make with vastly updated knowledge. Advanced LIGO represents the first time when we would have been more surprised not to see gravitational waves than to have seen them. And I believed in those equations.

I don’t want to be complacent about it, however. The fact that Einstein’s prediction has turned out to be right is an enormously strong testimony to the power of science in general, and physics in particular, to describe our natural world. Einstein didn’t know about black holes; he didn’t even know about lasers, although it was his work that laid the theoretical foundations for both ideas. He was working at a level of abstraction that reached as far as he could (at the time) to the fundamental basis of things, how our universe works at the deepest of levels. And his theoretical insights were sufficiently powerful and predictive that we could be confident in testing them a century later. This seemingly effortless insight that physics gives us into the behavior of the universe far away and under utterly unfamiliar conditions should never cease to be a source of wonder.

We’re nowhere near done yet, of course. We have never observed the universe in gravitational waves before, so we can’t tell for sure what we will see, but plausible estimates predict between one-half and several hundred events per year. Hopefully, the success of LIGO will invigorate interest in other ways of looking for gravitational waves, including at very different wavelengths. Here’s a plot focusing on three regimes: LIGO and its cousins on the right, the proposed space-based observatory LISA in the middle, and pulsar-timing arrays (using neutron stars throughout the galaxy as a giant gravitational-wave detector) on the left. Colorful boxes are predicted sources; solid lines are the sensitivities of different experiments. Gravitational-wave astrophysics has just begun; asking us what we will find is like walking up to Galileo and asking him what else you could discover with telescopes other than moons around Jupiter.

grav-wave-detectors-sources

For me, the decade of the 2010’s opened with five big targets in particle physics/gravitation/cosmology:

  1. Discover the Higgs boson.
  2. Directly detect gravitational waves.
  3. Directly observe dark matter.
  4. Find evidence of inflation (e.g. tensor modes) in the CMB.
  5. Discover a particle not in the Standard Model.

The decade is about half over, and we’ve done two of them! Keep up the good work, observers and experimentalists, and the 2010’s will go down as a truly historic decade in physics.