To call last week “historic” seems, at this point, rather trite. I’ll say instead that it was a “decisive” week within a historic period. It certainly stirred those foreboding feelings that things are on the cusp of spiraling out of control – geopolitically, politically, and socially.
January 5 – The Hill (Max Rego): “The State Department on Monday echoed President Trump’s rhetoric on U.S. authority in the Western Hemisphere. ‘This is OUR Hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened,’ the department wrote…”January 8 – Financial Times (David Pilling and Leslie Hook): “Donald Trump’s boast that he will ‘run’ Venezuela and that the money from selling millions of barrels of oil ‘will be controlled by me, as President’ has pushed the world into a new era of geopolitics. But his deployment of US military might to seize Venezuelan oil smacks not so much of a lurch to the future as a return to a past. For hundreds of years, the world was divided into spheres of influence when competition over resources… led to the colonisation of nations and the determination of national boundaries. It is only in the postwar period that international law and global trade rules have held a tenuous sway. Now that order appears to be breaking down and reverting to a former age characterised by resource imperialism. ‘Suddenly the 19th century and the period before both world wars are beginning to echo much more loudly as the world moves away from confidence in globalisation, open borders and relatively free trade,’ says Daniel Yergin…, vice-chair of S&P Global. ‘We’ve left the era [when] there was fundamental confidence that markets would work pretty well and now it’s one in which the visible hand of governments is, I guess, much more visible’.”January 7 – Financial Times (Editorial Board): “It says a lot that the stunning capture of Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro is, for European leaders, only Donald Trump’s second-most alarming act this week. More concerning are his renewed assertions that the US ‘needs’ Greenland — which, like Venezuela, is part of the western hemisphere that Trump’s America claims as its own. Whether for security, access to the Arctic or mineral deposits, the US president clearly covets the world’s largest non-continental island. The White House said… it was exploring ways of acquiring Greenland, and ‘utilising the US military is always an option’.”It's difficult for me to believe that the expropriation of Venezuelan oil ends well. And would the administration really risk blowing up NATO and key alliances to expropriate Greenland? Having gleefully watched the implosions of Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad’s Syria - and seeing the mullahs of Iran at the precipice - is the administration now determined to ensure similar fates for U.S. adversaries in our hemisphere? This is all too much. Frightening.
White House advisor Stephen Miller (CNN January 6, 2026):
“Without giving anything away, I want to be very clear, very clear. The government has sent messages… to the Secretary of State, to our senior U.S. government negotiators – they have sent message after message, making clear that they will meet the terms, demands, conditions, and requirements of the United States…”CNN’s Jake Tapper:
“The question about who is now running Venezuela is one that even members of Congress, who are big Trump supporters, say they’re not quite sure about… Can you tell us what the President means when he says – is acting president Delcy Rodriguez in charge, is she running Venezuela or not?"Miller:
“What the President said is true. The United States of America is running Venezuela - by definition that’s true. Jake, we live in a world in which you can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else. But we live in the world, in the real world Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.” Tapper:
“In terms of day-to-day operations in Venezuela, that is acting president Rodriguez, right? It’s not some sort of American emissary?Miller:
“What I’m saying is, we’ll keep going here, Jake… But what I’m saying is one level above that. By definition, we are in charge. Because we have the United States military stationed outside the country, we set the terms and conditions. We have a complete embargo on all of their oil and their ability to do commerce. So, for them to do commerce, they need our permission. For them to be able to run an economy, they need our permission. So, the United States is in charge. The United States is running the country during this transition period.”Tapper:
“Can you rule out that the U.S. is ever going to try to take Greenland by force?”
Miller:
“Let me go back a step. The President has been clear for months now… that the United States should be the nation that has Greenland as part of our overall security apparatus… It has been the formal position of the U.S. government, since the beginning of this administration – frankly, going back to the previous Trump administration, that Greenland should be part of the United States. The President has been very clear about that…”Tapper:
“But can you say that military action against Greenland is off the table?”Miller:
“Greenland has a population of 30,000 people, Jake. The real question is by what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? What is the basis for their territorial claim? What is their basis for having Greenland as a colony of Denmark? The United States is the power of NATO. For the United States to secure the Arctic region, to protect and defend NATO and NATO interests, obviously Greenland should be part of the United States. That’s a conversation that we’re going to have as a country. It’s a process we’re going to have as a community of nations… The United States should have Greenland as part of the United States. There’s no need to even think or talk about this in the context… of a military operation. Nobody is going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland.” Tapper:
“Should there be an election [in Venezuela]?”Miller:
“If you can give me the floor for 30 seconds, let me tell you what we are doing… This is sort of foundational: the United States is using its military to secure our interests unapologetically in our hemisphere. We’re a superpower. And under President Trump, we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower. It is absurd that we would allow a nation in our own backyard to become the supplier of resources to our adversaries, but not to us; to hoard weapons from our adversaries to be able to be positioned as an asset against the United States rather than on behalf of the United States.” Tapper:
“A sovereign country shouldn’t be able to do what they want to do?”
Miller:
“The Monroe Doctrine and the Trump Doctrine is all about securing the national interest of America. For years, we sent our soldiers to die in deserts in the Middle East to try to build them parliaments, to try to build them democracies, to try to give them more oil, to try to give them more resources. The future of the free world, Jake, depends on America being able to assert ourselves and our interests without apology. This whole period that happened – after World War II – where the West began apologizing and groveling, and begging, and engaging these mass reparation schemes…”Tapper:
“I asked you if there should be an election…”Miller: “
The object is security and stability for the people of Venezuela. With our help and leadership, that country will become more prosperous than it has ever been in its whole history. Venezuelans will be richer, and safer and more secure and better off… The reason why I was giving you that speech, which I knew you didn’t want to hear, is because you’re approaching this from the wrong frame – this neoliberal frame that the United States’ job is to go around and demanding the immediate elections be held everywhere immediately, all the time right away…”Tapper:
“No, that’s not what I think, but you went into the country, and we seized the leader of Venezuela…”Miller:
“Damn straight we did! The point, Jake, is that we’re not going to let tinpot communist dictators send rapist into our country, send drugs into our country, send weapons into our country, and we’re not going to let a country fall into the hands of our adversaries. The future of Venezuela, working with America, is going to be so bright, and so incredible, and so positive – and we’ll have a conversation about everything that you raised. The priority right now, as the President has made clear, is a judicious, thoughtful, careful transition process to secure a great future for Venezuela and to secure a great future for America. Let’s just take a moment and acknowledge, Jake, what we witnessed under President Trump’s leadership, last week was one of the biggest foreign policy and military victories this country has ever had.”The administration has grown quite comfortable flaunting power and taking enormous risks. Power is intoxicating. And for officials across the globe – Latin America, Europe, and China, in particular – it was a decisive week. No longer will the administration’s bombastic rhetoric be dismissed as buffoonery. We should expect a fundamental shift in how governments interact with the administration. Beijing, in particular, must see its huge investments and influence throughout Latin America at high risk. There will be pushback. What little trust left is gone. And I increasingly worry about accidents.
Minneapolis. The horrible tragedy of Nicole Good. Inject thousands of heavily armed ICE agents into emotionally charged cities, and there will be accidents, as our nation becomes only more deeply and irreparably divided. And calling Nicole Good a “domestic terrorist” and blatantly lying about the circumstances of the killing are reprehensible. It’s at the point where much of the U.S. population doesn’t believe anything said by Kristi Noem, Stephen Miller, JD Vance or President Trump – or the administration more generally. I saw several references this week to “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command” — George Orwell, 1984.
January 9 – Bloomberg (Josh Wingrove, Scott Carpenter and Katy O'Donnell): “US President Donald Trump is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, a move he cast as his latest effort to bring down housing costs ahead of the November midterm election. Trump announced the move…, saying ‘This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable.’ He added that his decision not to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during his first term allowed them to amass ‘$200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH’ and that he was making his announcement ‘because of that’.”
The (reflationary) push to the midterms has begun in earnest. Fannie and Freddie unhinged. Caps on Credit card rates at 10%? A 50% boost to the defense budget? They will leave no stone unturned. And unless the bond vigilantes have been snuffed out, the administration is playing with fire – something they relish. The escalating risk of geopolitical and domestic accidents is shared by overheated Bubble markets at home and abroad.
Q3 2025 Z.1 Analysis
Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded a blistering $1.711 TN (nominal), or 8.8% annualized, during Q3 to a record $79.671 TN – driven by a $1.053 TN jump in outstanding Treasury Securities. This was the strongest quarterly NFD growth since massive covid Q2 2020 Treasury issuance. NFD inflated $3.208 TN y-o-y and $6.709 TN over two years. For comparison, NFD expanded $2.468 TN during pre-covid 2019 (2000-2019 avg. $1.839 TN). NFD ended September at a non-covid record 256% of GDP.
Household sector debt expanded at a 4.07% rate, the strongest pace of borrowing since Q3 2022. Corporate debt growth was down slightly q-o-q to 4.50% - but was up from Q3 2024’s 3.64%.
Federal Reserve Assets were little changed (down $6bn) during Q3 at $5.731 TN (down $495bn y-o-y). Treasury holdings increased $20 billion to $3.831 TN, while Agency Securities declined $19 billion to $1.805 TN. However, there were notable changes in Fed Liabilities. Reverse Repos (where money funds and financial institutions park short-term funds with the Fed) sank $412 billion to $49 billion, the low back to Q4 2000 – and was down from Q4 2022’s peak of $2.554 TN. Meanwhile, the Liability “Treasury General Deposit Account” jumped $434 billion to $891 billion (high since Q1 2021).
Total system Repo Assets contracted $411 billion to $6.298 TN, a decline explained by the drop in Fed “reverse repos.” And while system Repo Liabilities declined $272 billion from Q2’s record level to $7.828 TN, Repo Liabilities were still up $486 billion y-o-y (6.6%). The Q3 Repo slowdown and Q4 funding market tightening/instability are not coincidental. The expansion of repo funding for levered speculation creates liquidity, while deleveraging is a drag on liquidity. At this point in the cycle, even a slowdown in new leveraging will be felt in funding markets.
Broker/Dealer Assets inflated another $108 billion, or 7.2% annualized, to a record $6.126 TN, with one-year growth of $618 billion, or 11.2%. The asset “Loans” rose $49 billion (24% annualized) to a record $867 billion, with notable one-year growth of $183 billion, or 26.8%. Loans have doubled since the end of 2019. Broker/Dealer Debt Securities holdings dipped $24 billion from Q2’s record to $1.256 TN, while one-year growth was a potent $230 billion, or 22.5%.
Broker/Dealer Repo Assets were little changed at $1.855 TN, with Repo Liabilities slipping $14 billion from Q2’s record to $2.699 TN (up $191bn y-o-y). Miscellaneous Assets gained $88 billion to a record $1.295 TN (up $147bn y-o-y), as Miscellaneous Liabilities rose $61 billion to a record $1.327 TN (up $151bn y-o-y).
Money Market Fund Assets (MMFA) surged $293 billion, or 15.7% annualized, during Q3 to a record $7.774 TN. This increased y-o-y growth to $935 billion (14.3%); 12-quarter growth to $2.690 TN (53%); and 23-quarter growth to an astounding $3.772 TN (94%). During Q3, MMFs reduced Repo holdings by $333 billion (to $2.772 TN), while boosting Treasuries by $618 billion to a record $3.232 TN. Treasury holdings were up $573 billion, or 23.4%, y-o-y and $2.110 TN, or 188%, over 23 quarters. MMFs increased Agency Securities holdings by $6 billion to $999 billion, with one-year growth of $205 billion (28%).
During Q3, MMFs provided key demand for outsized Treasury issuance. Treasury Securities surged $1.053 TN (nominal) during Q3 to a record $29.572 TN, with one-year growth of $1.985 TN. Treasuries inflated $3.941 TN (15.4%) over two years and a staggering $12.943 TN, or 78%, over the past 23 quarters. Outstanding Treasuries have ballooned five-fold (up $25.078 TN) since 2007. For Q3, think of it in terms of the money fund complex shifting holdings from Fed Reverse Repos to Treasury Bills, which shifted the Fed’s Liabilities from Repos (owed to MMF) to the Treasury’s General Deposit Account.
Banking system (“Private Depository Institutions”) asset growth slowed to $201 billion (2.8% annualized) – to a record $28.772 TN. Bank Assets were up $1.095 TN y-o-y. Total Loans expanded $165 billion, or 4.3% annualized, to a record $15.521 TN – with one-year growth of $727 billion (4.9%). Debt Securities holdings expanded $115 billion, or 7.3% annualized, to $6.447 TN. Treasury Holdings rose $92 billion (19.8% ann.) to a record $1.940 TN, with six-month growth of $200 billion (up $271bn, or 16.2%, y-o-y). Bank Treasury holdings have doubled since Q1 2020.
Corporate borrowings increased from a notably weak Q2 to $143 billion (3.5% ann.), with one-year growth of $465 billion, or 2.9%. Interestingly, Corporate asset-backed securities (ABS) rose $63 billion (16.3% ann.) to a record $1.596 TN, with one-year growth of $169 billion, or 11.8%.
Mortgage Credit is slowing a pulse. At $206 billion (3.9% ann.), Total Mortgage growth was the strongest since Q4 2022. Growth in Home Mortgages was flat at $116 billion (3.2% ann.), while Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages expanded $45 billion (4.6% ann.) and $40 billion (6.8% ann.) – both the strongest expansions in at least two years.
The Household balance sheet remains fundamental to Bubble analysis. Household Assets surged $6.291 TN, or 12.8% annualized, to a record $202.830 TN. The $13.604 TN two-quarter rise was the strongest since Q1/Q2 2001 (covid crisis recovery). With Household Liabilities increasing $227 billion during Q3, Household Net Worth inflated $6.064 TN, or 13.8% annualized, to a record $181.632 TN. Household Net Worth to GDP rose to a non-covid record 652%. For comparison, this ratio ended 2019 at 527%, with previous cycle peaks 487% (Q1 2007) and 443% (Q1 2000). Net Worth inflated $12.912 TN, or 7.7%, over the past year, and $38.751 TN, or 27.1%, over three years. For an explanation of economic resilience, look no further.
Real Estate holdings dipped $287 billion to $52.057 TN. Meanwhile, holdings of Financial Assets surged $6.437 TN, or 19.1% annualized, during Q3 to a record $141.234 TN (non-covid record 454% of GDP). Debt Securities holdings gained $191 billion (12.9% annualized) to a record $6.133 TN, with a three-year gain of $2.453 TN, or 67%. Household Treasury holdings jumped $139 billion (19.8% ann.) to a record $2.961 TN, with an unprecedented three-year surge of $1.835 TN, or 163%.
Equities and Mutual Funds surged $5.037 TN, or 37% annualized, to a record $59.590 TN (3-yr gain $24.530 TN, or 70%). Equities/Mutual Funds rose to a record 192% of GDP, compared to previous cycle peaks 105% (Q3 ’07) and 116% (Q1 2000).
Curiously, Household Money Market Fund (MMF) holdings swelled another $186 billion to a record $5.035 TN. For comparison, Total Deposits increased only $22.4 billion during the quarter to $14.756 TN. Over three years, MMF inflated a historic $2.104 TN (72%), while Total Deposits declined $448 billion (2.9%). I would be curious to know what percentage of American households actually invest in money market funds.
The Rest of World (ROW) balance sheet is always intriguing. ROW holdings of U.S. financial assets were at about $7 TN when I began to post quarterly Z.1 “flow of funds” analysis in 1999. For Q3, ROW assets inflated $3.582 TN, or 23.7% annualized, to a record $64.121 TN. ROW Assets ballooned $7.661 TN, or 13.6%, y-o-y, and an incredible $25.405 TN, or 66%, over 20 quarters. ROW assets to GDP ended Q3 at a record 206% of GDP. This compares to previous cycle peaks 119% (Q4 ‘07) and 82% (Q3 2000).
ROW Debt Securities holdings were up $345 billion (9.0% ann.) for the quarter, and $909 billion y-o-y (6.1%) to a record $15.707 TN. Treasuries rose $142 billion (6.2% ann.) and $554 billion y-o-y (6.4%) to a record $9.269 TN. Holdings of Corp Debt jumped $150 billion (13% ann.) and $345 billion (7.8%) to a record $4.768 TN. Equities and Mutual Fund holdings surged $1.597 TN, or 32.5% annualized, to a record $21.235 TN, with notable one-year growth of $3.531 TN, or 20%.
ROW continues to be a major Repo market operator. Repo Assets expanded $90 billion (23.7% ann.) during Q3 to a record $1.597 TN, with one-year growth of $198 billion (14%). Repo Liabilities gained another $43 billion (8.6% ann.) to a record $2.047 TN, with one-year growth of $271 billion (15.2%). Over 20 quarters, Repo Assets inflated $737 billion (86%), with Repo Liabilities ballooning $841 billion (70%). Heck of a Bubble.
For the Week:
The S&P500 gained 1.6% (up 1.8% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 2.3% (up 3.0%). The Utilities fell 1.5% (down 0.5%). The Banks advanced 2.1% (up 3.9%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 2.2% (up 3.8%). The Transports jumped 3.7% (up 4.8%). The S&P 400 Midcaps rose 3.3% (up 4.7%), and the small cap Russell 2000 surged 4.6% (up 5.7%). The Nasdaq100 gained 2.2% (up 2.0%). The Semiconductors surged 3.7% (up 7.8%). The Biotechs advanced 3.1% (up 4.1%). With bullion jumping $177, the HUI gold index surged 8.9% (up 8.8%).
Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 3.5125%. Two-year government yields jumped six bps to 3.53% (up 6bps y-t-d). Five-year T-note yields added a basis point to 3.75% (up 2bps). Ten-year Treasury yields slipped three bps to 4.17% (unchanged). Long bond yields fell six bps to 4.81% (down 3bps). Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields sank 21 bps to 4.88% (down 16bps).
Italian 10-year yields dropped 12 bps to 3.50% (down 6bps). Greek 10-year yields sank 14 bps to 3.35% (down 9bps). Spain's 10-year yields fell nine bps to 3.25% (down 4bps). German bund yields declined four bps to 2.86% (up 1bp). French yields dropped nine bps to 3.52% (down 4bps). The French to German 10-year bond narrowed five to 66 bps. U.K. 10-year gilt yields sank 16 bps to 4.37% (down 11bps). U.K.’s FTSE equities index gained 1.7% (up 1.8% y-t-d).
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Equities Index surged 3.2% (up 3.2% y-t-d). Japan’s 10-year “JGB” yields rose three bps to 2.10% (up 3bps y-t-d). France’s CAC40 rose 2.0% (up 2.6%). The German DAX equities index jumped 2.9% (up 3.1%). Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index increased 0.9% (up 2.0%). Italy’s FTSE MIB index added 0.8% (up 1.7%). EM equities were mixed. Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 1.8% (up 1.4%), and Mexico’s Bolsa index surged 3.1% (up 2.6%). South Korea’s Kospi spiked 6.4% (up 8.8%). India’s Sensex equities index dropped 2.5% (down 1.9%). China’s Shanghai Exchange Index surged 3.8% (up 3.8%). Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index jumped 6.1% (up 8.3%).
Federal Reserve Credit declined $3.5 billion last week to $6.540 TN, with a four-week gain of $49.2 billion. Fed Credit was down $2.350 TN from the June 22, 2022, peak. Since the September 11, 2019 restart of QE, Fed Credit expanded $2.813 TN, or 75%. Fed Credit inflated $3.729 TN, or 133%, since November 7, 2012 (687 weeks). Elsewhere, Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt recovered $1.9 billion last week to $3.040 TN – just off the low back to February 2012. “Custody holdings” were down $208 billion y-o-y, or 6.4%.
Total money market fund assets (MMFA) surged another $71 billion to a record $7.804 TN - with a 23-week surge of $728 billion, or 23% annualized. MMFA were up $888 billion, or 12.8%, y-o-y - having ballooned a historic $3.172 TN, or 69%, since October 26, 2022.
Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates added one basis point to 6.16% (down 77bps y-o-y). Fifteen-year rates increased two bps to 5.46% (down 68bps). Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates down 10 bps to 6.36% (down 73bps).
Currency Watch:
For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.7% to 99.133 (up 0.8% y-t-d). On the upside, the Brazilian real increased 1.1%, and the Swedish krona added 0.1%. On the downside, the Canadian dollar declined 1.3%, the Swiss franc 1.1%, the South Korean won 1.0%, the euro 0.7%, the Japanese yen 0.7%, the New Zealand dollar 0.6%, the Mexican peso 0.4%, the British pound 0.4%, the Norwegian krone 0.4%, the Singapore dollar 0.3%, and the Australian dollar 0.1%. China's (onshore) renminbi increased 0.14% versus the dollar (up 0.14% y-t-d).
Commodities Watch:
January 7 – Financial Times (Camilla Hodgson): “The world is on track for a copper shortage that would pose a ‘systemic risk’ to global economic growth, driven by the energy transition and the booming artificial intelligence sector’s demand for the red metal, according to S&P Global. The looming deficit is forecast to reach 10mn tonnes — equivalent to almost one-third of current global demand — by 2040, in the absence of a ‘meaningful expansion of supply’, said the data group… This constitutes a ‘systemic risk for global industries, technological advancement and economic growth’, it warned.”
The Bloomberg Commodities Index jumped 2.4% (up 2.2% y-t-d). Spot Gold rose 4.1% to $4,510 (up 4.4%). Silver surged 9.7% to $79.8562 (up 11.4%). WTI crude rallied $1.80, or 3.1%, to $59.12 (up 3%). Gasoline jumped 3.8% (up 4%), while Natural Gas sank 12.4% to $3.169 (down 14%). Copper jumped 3.7% (up 4%). Wheat rose 2.1% (up 3%), and Corn gained 1.9% (up 1%). Bitcoin rallied $450, or 0.5%, to $90,500 (up 3.3%).
Global Credit and Financial Bubble Watch:
January 5 – Bloomberg (Gerson Freitas Jr and Caleb Mutua): “Firms sold $37 billion of investment-grade bonds in the US on the first Monday of 2026, kicking off what’s expected to be a record year for issuance… Firms are expected to sell $215 billion of high-grade debt in January alone, a monthly all-time high…”
January 5 – Bloomberg (Finbarr Flynn, Harry Suhartono and Janice Huang): “Global credit markets are sending off one of the clearest signals yet that investors are looking past geopolitics. At least 10 borrowers in Asia… were marketing notes in the US currency Tuesday, the most in a single day since September. That’s after Monday emerged as the best day for the market in a year, with global dollar bond sales raising a combined $61 billion.”
January 7 – Bloomberg: “China is starting the year with a record clip of government bond issuance, rattling a market where demand is already weak. The nation has announced plans to issue 522 billion yuan ($74.6bn) of bonds in three auctions between January 1 to 15. That would be the highest amount for a half-monthly period…”
January 8 – Bloomberg (Helene Durand, James Hirai, and Ronan Martin): “Italy and Portugal added to a record-breaking week for global bond sales… Some 23 issuers are raising at least €51.8 billion ($60.4bn) in Europe’s primary market… That follows Wednesday’s all-time high of more than €61 billion. Global bond sales are having their busiest ever start to a year as all kinds of borrowers seize on investors’ buoyant appetite for debt. Corporations and governments in the US, Europe and Asia had already borrowed roughly $260 billion across currencies by Wednesday.”
January 6 – Bloomberg: “Wells Fargo was the top underwriter of US commercial mortgage backed securities in 2025 as the value of deals rose 14%. Issuers sold $118 billion of CMBS vs. $103.6 billion in 2024.”
January 6 – Bloomberg: “BofA Securities was the top underwriter of US asset-backed securities in 2025 as the value of deals rose 7.2%. Issuers sold $366.1 billion of ABS vs. $341.5 billion in 2024.”
January 8 – Bloomberg (Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro, Abhinav Ramnarayan, and Bailey Lipschultz): “Companies around the world are issuing convertible bonds at the fastest pace in 24 years, as the development of artificial intelligence spurs a hunt for cheaper financing. Alibaba Group… and Super Micro Computer Inc. are among the firms tapping convertible securities to fund AI-related bets, helping drive the amount raised in 2025 to around $166.5 billion… That’s the most since 2001 and just shy of a historic record…”
January 3 – Bloomberg (Caleb Mutua and Isabelle Lee): “Artificial intelligence spending and the growth of the private credit market aren’t just spurring companies to borrow more, they’re also helping to generate fresh records for corporate-bond trading. An average of $50 billion in investment-grade and high-yield bonds changed hands each trading day last year… That marked a record level, up from $46 billion in 2024, the latest in a string of records as the market benefits from longer-term changes like growing electronic trading.”
Market Instability Watch:
January 7 – Bloomberg (Masaki Kondo): “Japan’s government bond market is set for another tough year as investors contend with the largest net increase in supply in well over a decade. The nation’s sovereign debt - the worst performer among the world’s biggest markets last year - faces an 8% rise in net supply to about ¥65 trillion ($415bn) in the fiscal year starting in April… ‘Supply-demand conditions in Japan’s bond market have deteriorated to the point that the government may eventually need to adjust issuance each quarter,’ said Akio Kato, senior manager of the strategic research and investment division at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management…”
U.S. Credit Trouble Watch:
January 7 – Bloomberg (Steven Church): “First Brands Group Inc. warned it will run out of cash by the end of January without an immediate financing injection, a shortfall that could force the bankrupt auto-parts maker to shut down some businesses and sell other operations.”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Jeannine Amodeo): “An anticipated pickup in merger and acquisition-related deals arrived in the US leveraged loan market to open 2026, led by a $5 billion offering from Hologic that’s part of a much-larger financing effort… However, at just over $30 billion, this week’s overall launches are some 40% below year-earlier levels, continuing a more-moderate pace of activity seen in the final few months of 2025.”
Trump Administration Watch:
January 6 – Bloomberg (Hadriana Lowenkron and Kate Sullivan): “President Donald Trump asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead the process to implement economic and political reforms in Venezuela and the US believes it is getting ‘full, complete and total’ cooperation from the government in Caracas after the capture of Nicolas Maduro, White House senior adviser Stephen Miller said… Trump requested Rubio ‘under the president’s close guidance and direction, to be the lead on this process,’ Miller told reporters… The secretary of State will lead a team that includes officials working on energy, financial, and military policy, he added.”
January 5 – Wall Street Journal (Annie Linskey and Meridith McGraw): “After overseeing a brazen operation to oust Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, President Trump is turning his attention to other countries over which he wants the U.S. to exert more control. In the days since Maduro’s capture, Trump has renewed threats against Colombia, criticized Mexico’s leadership, predicted Cuba’s government would fall and reiterated his desire to take over Greenland. Trump has privately told aides that he is thrilled with the outcome of the Venezuela operation… ‘He’s more resolved, not less, after this success,’ Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said... ‘We need to clear up our backyard,’ said Graham… ‘The theme here is: securing the border is really important. We need to get to the source of the problem’.”
January 6 – Financial Times (Edward Luce): “Though a teetotaller, Donald Trump has an ‘alcoholic’s personality’, according to Susie Wiles, his chief of staff. Addictive personalities tend to be compulsive risk-takers. Doing what makes you feel good suspends the pain. In Trump’s case, that pain is increasingly domestic and the cure foreign. The more dire his situation at home — his poll numbers are bad and show no sign of improving — the greater the temptation of getting a fix abroad… In explaining why he ordered the abduction of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro last Saturday, Trump cited a US warrant. He sent the sheriff into the jungle to retrieve a fugitive from American justice. It worked like a charm. As long as the target is outgunned, success is assured. Trump is increasingly confident of his unchecked control over America’s war machine. Denmark’s anxiety is thus justified. Without prompting, he raised Greenland at his post-Maduro appearance last Sunday.”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Josh Wingrove, Scott Carpenter and Katy O'Donnell): “US President Donald Trump is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, a move he cast as his latest effort to bring down housing costs ahead of the November midterm election. Trump announced the move…, saying ‘This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable.’ He added that his decision not to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during his first term allowed them to amass ‘$200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH’ and that he was making his announcement ‘because of that’.”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Scott Carpenter and Katy O'Donnell): “With his directive ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of mortgage bonds, President Donald Trump has opened a new front in the administration’s effort to bolster housing affordability. Yet by pressing the government-backed housing-finance giants to act as large-scale buyers, the move also signals a broader assertion of executive authority, effectively placing the White House in a role traditionally reserved for the Federal Reserve and intensifying debate over how far presidents can go in steering financial markets. If the firms carry out the purchases as instructed… it would be the first time in living memory a US president has directly intervened in housing finance through large-scale asset buying…”
January 7 – Wall Street Journal (Craig Karmin, Rebecca Picciotto and Alyssa Lukpat): “President Trump said he will ban large investors from buying single-family homes, the administration’s first significant move to address the country’s severe housing shortage. ‘I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,’ Trump said… It isn’t clear if Trump can carry out such a ban without congressional approval, and big investors would still be able to hold on to their hundreds of thousands of existing homes. Yet if the president is able to enact a ban, it would likely ripple through a number of major housing markets across the country.”
January 7 – CNBC (Kevin Breuninger): “President Donald Trump… said he ‘will not permit’ defense companies to issue dividends or stock buybacks until those firms speed up their production of military equipment and address his other complaints about the industry. Trump, in a lengthy Truth Social post, also took aim at defense contractors’ executive pay packages, calling them ‘exorbitant and unjustifiable.’ ‘Defense Companies are not producing our Great Military Equipment rapidly enough and, once produced, not maintaining it properly or quickly,’ he wrote. Until those companies build new production plants, ‘no Executive should be allowed to make in excess of $5 Million Dollars,’ Trump declared.”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Romy Varghese): “President Donald Trump… called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective Jan. 20, without specifying details. ‘Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more, which festered unimpeded during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration. AFFORDABILITY!’ he wrote on social media.”
New World Order Watch:
January 7 – Financial Times (Editorial Board): “It says a lot that the stunning capture of Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro is, for European leaders, only Donald Trump’s second-most alarming act this week. More concerning are his renewed assertions that the US ‘needs’ Greenland — which, like Venezuela, is part of the western hemisphere that Trump’s America claims as its own. Whether for security, access to the Arctic or mineral deposits, the US president clearly covets the world’s largest non-continental island. The White House said… it was exploring ways of acquiring Greenland, and ‘utilising the US military is always an option’.”
January 7 – Bloomberg (Courtney Subramanian, Jamie Tarabay and Roxana Tiron): “US President Donald Trump leveled fresh criticism toward NATO, days after Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said his desired takeover of her nation’s territory of Greenland would mean the end of the military alliance. ‘RUSSIA AND CHINA HAVE ZERO FEAR OF NATO WITHOUT THE UNITED STATES, AND I DOUBT NATO WOULD BE THERE FOR US IF WE REALLY NEEDED THEM,’ Trump posted…”
January 7 – Bloomberg: “Donald Trump’s brazen move to snatch Nicolás Maduro from his Caracas home last week also sent a clear message to Chinese President Xi Jinping: The Western Hemisphere has no room for another superpower. The US military’s raid on Venezuela — home to the world’s largest oil reserves and the only country in Latin America that boasts an ‘all-weather strategic partnership’ with Beijing — marked an audacious debut of what Trump has called the ‘Donroe Doctrine,’ a revival of the 19th-century policy by then President James Monroe establishing US dominance in the Americas.”
January 8 – Financial Times (David Pilling and Leslie Hook): “Donald Trump’s boast that he will ‘run’ Venezuela and that the money from selling millions of barrels of oil ‘will be controlled by me, as President’ has pushed the world into a new era of geopolitics. But his deployment of US military might to seize Venezuelan oil smacks not so much of a lurch to the future as a return to a past. For hundreds of years, the world was divided into spheres of influence when competition over resources… led to the colonisation of nations and the determination of national boundaries. It is only in the postwar period that international law and global trade rules have held a tenuous sway. Now that order appears to be breaking down and reverting to a former age characterised by resource imperialism. ‘Suddenly the 19th century and the period before both world wars are beginning to echo much more loudly as the world moves away from confidence in globalisation, open borders and relatively free trade,’ says Daniel Yergin…, vice-chair of S&P Global. ‘We’ve left the era [when] there was fundamental confidence that markets would work pretty well and now it’s one in which the visible hand of governments is, I guess, much more visible’.”
January 8 – Bloomberg (Ania Nussbaum and Samy Adghirni): “French President Emmanuel Macron accused Washington of breaching international law and turning away from its partners days after the US captured and removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and threatened to take control of Greenland. The US ‘is an established power, but one that is gradually turning away from some of its allies and breaking free from international rules,’ Macron told French ambassadors… ‘We are caught up in a very surprising game where we, the French and Europeans, are subjected to anti-colonial rhetoric that no longer corresponds to reality,’ Macron said. ‘Every day people wonder whether Greenland will be invaded, whether Canada will be threatened with becoming the 51st state or whether Taiwan will be further encircled’.”
January 5 – Financial Times (Richard Milne and Henry Foy): “European leaders have grappled for months with the question of how to respond to US President Donald Trump’s quixotic desire to seize Greenland, but in recent days their puzzlement and alarm have only intensified. Trump’s repeated insistence on the US taking control of Greenland from close ally Denmark has also compounded the chaos inside EU and Nato capitals on how to respond to America over other geopolitical issues… ‘It’s a fine line,’ said one senior European official. ‘The solidarity with Denmark is crystal clear for everyone. But then there’s Venezuela where nobody is sorry [Nicolás] Maduro is going, but there are legal questions. And we want to keep the US onside for a dignified outcome in Ukraine.’ A second EU official said: ‘We know who our allies no longer are. It’s just we are still hoping we are wrong and the problem will go away,’ referring to Trump’s disregard for the generation-old transatlantic alliance and the need for Europe to reduce its reliance on Washington. ‘We know what needs to be done, we just need to bloody do it’.”
January 7 – Politico (Elena Giordano): “U.S. President Donald Trump… cast fresh doubt on NATO’s reliability, saying he was not convinced the alliance would come to Washington’s aid in a crisis, as tensions rose over the White House's renewed push to acquire Greenland. ‘I DOUBT NATO WOULD BE THERE FOR US IF WE REALLY NEEDED THEM,’ Trump blasted on Truth Social, while insisting the U.S. would still defend alliance members. ‘We will always be there for NATO, even if they won’t be there for us’…”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Samy Adghirni): “France accused the US of wielding trade coercion and sanctions to weaken European unity and sovereignty, as Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot warned that Europe faces mounting external threats. Adversaries are testing the European Union through ‘territorial incursions on our eastern flank, trade blackmail, and claims on Greenland, which is not for sale,’ Barrot said in a speech to French ambassadors in Paris, appearing to give similar weight to the US’s actions as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The minister said recent US economic measures — including sanctions on European companies and a former EU Commissioner — are ‘a challenge to our ability to choose our own rules on our own soil.’ ‘If the gauntlet is thrown down, France will take it up,’ he warned.”
January 4 – Financial Times (Gideon Rachman): “‘The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we’ve superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the ‘Donroe’ Doctrine.’ So said Donald Trump, a few hours after American forces had toppled Nicolás Maduro... The Venezuelan operation is a dramatic demonstration of the Trump administration’s determination to establish American hegemony in the western hemisphere. That idea was central to the US national security strategy published last month. The US president’s evident delight at the early success of the Venezuelan operation suggests that he may develop a taste for intervention in America’s expansively defined ‘backyard’.”
January 5 – Associated Press (Aamer Madhani): “President Donald Trump hasn’t minced words about the larger message he’s trying to send the world with the U.S. military raid to capture Nicolás Maduro and spirit the deposed Venezuelan leader and his wife to the United States to face federal drug trafficking charges. ‘American dominance in the Western Hemisphere… will never be questioned again.’ In the days since the audacious raid, Trump and his team have doubled down on the notion that the new focus on American preeminence in the hemisphere is here to stay. He also held up Maduro’s capture to make the case to neighbors to get in line or potentially face consequences. Trump’s rhetoric harkens back to the muscular talk of the late 19th and early 20th centuries when American presidents deployed the military for territorial and resource conquests, including to Cuba, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Honduras, Panama, Nicaragua, Mexico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.”
January 6 – Axios (Marc Caputo and Madison Mills): “President Trump has offered a variety of reasons for his intense, pugilistic ambitions in Venezuela, Greenland and other hemispheric players. But one tie binds them all: They hold many of the critical minerals essential to AI and defense technology — and therefore future global dominance. Within two days of snatching Venezuela's leader, Trump administration officials and financial analysts began discussing that nation’s vast array of mineral riches. Along with tapping Venezuela’s massive oil reserves, officials say, harvesting the country’s rare-earth minerals could help stabilize its finances and help the U.S. blunt China’s global stranglehold… ‘You have steel, you have minerals, all the critical minerals,’ Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters… ‘They have a great mining history that's gone rusty.’ Lutnick said Trump ‘is going to fix it and bring it back — for the Venezuelans’.”
January 5 – Associated Press (Danica Coto and Andrea Rodriguez): “Cuban officials… lowered flags before dawn to mourn 32 security officers they say were killed in the U.S. weekend strike in Venezuela, the island nation’s closest ally… The two governments are so close that Cuban soldiers and security agents were often the Venezuelan president’s bodyguards, and Venezuela’s petroleum has kept the economically ailing island limping along for years… The Trump administration has warned outright that toppling Maduro will help advance another decades-long goal: Dealing a blow to the Cuban government.”
Venezuela Watch:
January 9 – Bloomberg (Jennifer A. Dlouhy): “Major US oil executives expressed caution about President Donald Trump’s push for them to spend at least $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela, with the head of Exxon Mobil Corp. calling the nation currently ‘uninvestable.’ Trump convened nearly 20 industry representatives in the East Room of the White House Friday and predicted they could come to an agreement ‘today or very shortly thereafter’ to reinvigorate operations in the oil-rich Latin American country… ‘If you don’t want to go in, just let me know, because I’ve got 25 people that aren’t here today that are willing to take your place,’ Trump told the executives. Comments from some of the company representatives indicated the president may need to do more convincing.”
January 6 – Axios (Julianna Bragg): “President Trump… said that Venezuelan interim authorities will ‘be turning over’ between ‘30 and 50 MILLION’ barrels of oil to the U.S. Trump said on Truth Social the sanctioned oil will be sold at market price, and the resulting revenue will be controlled ‘by me, as President of the United States’ to ‘ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!’ — without elaborating further. ‘I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately,’ he added. ‘It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States’.”
January 7 – Bloomberg (Ari Natter, Naureen S. Malik and Jennifer A. Dlouhy): “The Trump administration plans to control future sales of Venezuelan oil and hold the proceeds in US accounts, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said… Wright, who spoke at a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. conference in Miami…, said initially the barrels would come from crude Venezuela is holding in storage... ‘We’re just going to get that crude moving again and sell it,’ Wright said. ‘We’re going to market the crude coming out of Venezuela – first this backed-up stored oil and then indefinitely going forward we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela’.”
January 7 – Financial Times (Joe Daniels, Andres Schipani and Ana Rodríguez Brazón): “Gun-toting paramilitaries terrifying civilians in the cities. Colombian guerrillas running drugs and gold along the borders. Military officers ruling their patches as personal fiefdoms. Venezuela, one of the world’s most murderous countries, is teeming with men with guns. The patchwork of criminal gangs, armed paramilitaries and rogue soldiers poses a major threat to President Donald Trump’s desire to ‘run’ the country — and to any US companies looking to invest. While acting president Delcy Rodríguez has shown some willingness to collaborate with the US, none of the medley of violent actors answers directly to her. ‘All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,’ said Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of Buenos Aires-based think-tank Cries. ‘There are para-state armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory’.”
January 4 – Financial Times (Rebecca Falconer): “President Trump said… the U.S. could launch a second strike on Venezuela if ‘they don’t behave.’ His comments came after Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, struck a more conciliatory tone after Trump issued a warning to her following her earlier criticism of the U.S. attack and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. ‘We’re dealing with the people who just got sworn in. Don’t ask me who’s in charge because I’ll give you an answer and it will be very controversial,’ Trump told reporters… Asked what that meant, Trump replied: ‘We’re in charge’.”
January 3 – New York Times (David E. Sanger and Tyler Pager): “President Trump’s declaration… that the United States planned to ‘run’ Venezuela for an unspecified period, issuing orders to its government and exploiting its vast oil reserves, plunged the United States into a risky new era in which it will seek economic and political dominance over a nation of roughly 30 million people. Speaking… just hours after Nicolás Maduro… and his wife were seized from their bedroom by U.S. forces, Mr. Trump told reporters that Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Mr. Maduro’s vice president, would hold power in Venezuela as long as she ‘does what we want’.”
January 6 – Axios (Ben Geman): “Nobody knows exactly how much it will cost to rebuild Venezuela’s broken-down oilfields, but everyone agrees it’s a lot — and there’s no guarantee that U.S. companies will be chomping at the bit. ‘There is no quick and easy solution to the problems that accumulated over a quarter century,’ Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said... Venezuela’s crude output has dwindled to well under one million barrels per day after years of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions — a far cry from around 3.5 mbd in the late 1990s.”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Aaron Clark): “Oil executives weighing a potential investment in Venezuela’s fields may want to check out the view from space. Satellites have detected enormous amounts of methane billowing from the country’s abandoned oil rigs, rusty pipelines and other dilapidated energy infrastructure. The emissions not only reflect potential lost revenue — they’re also likely to give US oil majors pause about operating in Venezuela. That could leave smaller, less experienced companies and private equity firms to attempt to fulfill US President Donald Trump’s plan to revive the nation’s heavy crude output…”
Greenland Watch:
January 4 – Financial Times (Richard Milne): “A US attack to seize Greenland from Denmark would lead to the end of Nato, the Danish premier Mette Frederiksen has said in her strongest intervention against Donald Trump. Frederiksen told Danish broadcasters… that the US president was ‘serious’ about taking control of the vast Arctic island from Copenhagen. ‘If the US chooses to attack another Nato country militarily, everything stops. Including our Nato, and the security that has been provided since the end of the second world war,’ she told TV2. She received support from Norway’s foreign minister, Espen Barth Eide, who told local newspaper Aftenposten that a US attack on Greenland would mean ‘the idea of Nato would be broken’ and it would be hard to imagine the alliance surviving it. Their dramatic warnings came after Trump ignored her earlier pleas to stop threatening Denmark and Greenland, and repeated that the US needed the Arctic island for its ‘security’.”
January 6 – Associated Press (Claudia Ciobanu and Stefanie Dazio): “The White House said… that ‘U.S. military is always an option,’ even as a series of European leaders rejected President Donald Trump’s comments about seeking an American takeover of the world’s largest island… ‘President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region,’ White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said... ‘The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the commander in chief’s disposal’.”
January 6 – Politico (Nicholas Vinocur): “Eight of Europe’s top leaders have rallied to defend the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland amid growing threats from President Donald Trump's administration that the U.S. could seize the mineral-rich Arctic island. In a statement, the European leaders insisted Greenland’s security must be ensured collectively by NATO and with full respect to the wishes of its people. ‘Security in the Arctic must be… achieved collectively, in conjunction with NATO allies including the United States by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders,’ the leaders wrote… The statement was signed by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. It was backed by the leaders of the Netherlands, Greece, Luxembourg and Slovenia.”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Jennifer A. Dlouhy): “President Donald Trump ramped up his rhetoric over Greenland, saying he’s willing to secure the territory ‘the hard way’ if authorities are unwilling to cut a deal for the US to take over the island. ‘I would like to make a deal, you know, the easy way. But if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way,’ Trump told reporters…”
January 7 – Axios (Barak Ravid): “Secretary of State Marco Rubio said… he will meet with his Danish counterpart next week in Washington to discuss the crisis over Greenland… The Danish government has been in crisis mode for the past few weeks, and particularly the last 72 hours. Denmark has realized in recent weeks that its strategy of quiet ally-to-ally persuasion on Greenland had failed to move Trump, a Danish official told Axios. ‘This is why it is such a serious situation. This is also why our allies and partners come out publicly against it and sound the alarm’.”
January 9 – Bloomberg (Sanne Wass and Sara Sjolin): “There’s no sum of money from Donald Trump that would persuade Greenlanders to join the US, two Greenlandic lawmakers in the Danish parliament said. Any attempt by the US president to entice the Arctic island with cash is doomed to fail and only risks pushing Greenlanders further away, said Aaja Chemnitz, one of two Greenland representatives in the Danish legislature, where she chairs the committee focused on the territory’s affairs.”
January 5 – Politico (Noah Keate): “Denmark and Greenland should determine Greenland’s future, Keir Starmer said… The U.K. prime minister told broadcasters he stood with Danish PM Mette Frederiksen, who warned… the United States has no right to annex the self-ruling Danish territory. ‘The future of Greenland is for Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark,’ Starmer told Sky News... ‘Denmark is a close European ally, a close NATO ally, and the future therefore has to be for Greenland [and] for the Kingdom of Denmark, and only for Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark’.”
Iran Watch:
January 9 – Associated Press (Jon Gambrell): “Protests in Iran raged Friday night in the Islamic Republic…, despite a threat from the country’s theocracy to crack down on demonstrators after shutting down the internet and cutting telephone lines off to the world. At least 65 people have been killed in the protests that began in late December… Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump as having hands ‘stained with the blood of Iranians’ as his supporters shouted ‘Death to America!’ in footage aired by Iranian state television. State media later referred to the demonstrators as ‘terrorists,’ setting the stage for a violent crackdown as in other protests in recent years, despite Trump’s pledge to back peaceful protesters with force if necessary.”
China Trade War Watch:
January 7 – Bloomberg (Brian Platt): “Prime Minister Mark Carney will make an official visit to China next week as his government tries to rebuild relations with the Asian superpower and reduce Canada’s economic reliance on the US. Carney is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the visit and will have discussions on trade, energy, agriculture and international security, his office said… It will be the first trip to China by a Canadian prime minister in nearly a decade…”
Trade War Watch:
January 3 – Financial Times (Barbara Moens): “The EU is intensifying its challenge to Google, Meta, Apple and X in 2026, in regulatory moves that are expected to lead to renewed clashes with US Big Tech groups and President Donald Trump… The European Commission is switching focus to enforcing an expansive digital rule book after years of negotiating landmark legislation to take on the world’s biggest technology groups. That effort will face political challenges over the coming year. The Trump administration has demanded changes to the bloc’s tech rules and threatened to impose tariffs in retaliation for EU actions against Silicon Valley groups.”
January 5 – Reuters (Manoj Kumar and Shivangi Acharya): “The United States could raise tariffs on India if New Delhi does not meet Washington's demand to curb purchases of Russian oil, President Donald Trump said… ‘Modi is a good guy. He knew I was not happy, and it was important to make me happy,’ Trump told reporters… ‘They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly,’ Trump said…”
Constitution Watch:
January 5 – Axios (Stephen Neukam, Hans Nichols and Stef W. Kight): “Top congressional leaders emerged from Monday’s 2+ hours classified briefing with radically different interpretations of the Trump administration's short- and long-term goals for Venezuela. The two parties are deeply split on legal and constitutional justifications for the action. Republicans insisted the operation did not constitute an act of war. ‘We do not have US armed forces in Venezuela, and we are not occupying that country,’ said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Democrats say Trump started a war that will have dire — and perhaps widespread — outcomes… The briefing… included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Pam Bondi and CIA Director John Ratcliffe.”
Budget Watch:
January 7 – Financial Times (Amy Mackinnon and Claire Jones): “Donald Trump is set to ask US lawmakers for $1.5tn in defence spending, an increase of more than 50% on the current year’s record budget of $901bn. The dramatic increase would enable the US to build a ‘dream military’ and would be paid for by tariffs, the president said on Wednesday in a post on social media. ‘I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars,’ Trump wrote.”
January 7 – Wall Street Journal (Editorial Board): “It’s a wild world out there, so we’re pleased to bring you some unalloyed good news for the security of the United States. The Trump Administration is tripling production of a crucial air defense missile, a dose of realism about the world’s threats. The Defense Department this week said it will work with Lockheed Martin to expand annual production of advanced Patriot air-defense missiles to 2,000 a year, from about 600 now… U.S. troops defending America’s base in Qatar from Iranian attack last summer fired what the Pentagon called ‘the largest single Patriot engagement in U.S. military history’.”
January 4 – Bloomberg (Maria Eloisa Capurro): “A panel of economic luminaries said the long-run risk posed by mounting federal debt represented a paramount problem facing the US economy. Those risks include the scenario in which the size of the debt prompts the central bank to keep rates low to minimize debt servicing costs, rather than contain inflation — a concept known as fiscal dominance. ‘The preconditions for fiscal dominance are clearly strengthening,’ former Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said… The Congressional Budget Office has projected the federal deficit this year will be $1.9 trillion, bringing total debt to about 100% of gross domestic product. That’s seen rising to about 118% of GDP in the next decade.”
U.S./Russia/China/Europe/Iran Watch:
January 3 – Bloomberg: “China said it’s ‘deeply shocked’ by the US’s military strikes on Venezuela and its capture of President Nicolas Maduro. China ‘strongly condemns the US’s blatant use of force against a sovereign state and action against its president,’ a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said... ‘Such hegemonic acts of the US seriously violate international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty, and threaten peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean region. China firmly opposes it’.”
January 5 – Reuters (Joe Cash): “China’s top diplomat accused the U.S. of acting like a ‘world judge’ by seizing Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro to put him on trial in New York, with Beijing later confronting Washington at the United Nations over the move’s legality. China follows a policy of non-intervention and routinely criticises military activity conducted without the UN Security Council’s approval. The U.S. military’s removal of the leader of one of China’s ‘all-weather’ strategic partners from his capital in the dead of night will be a litmus test of Beijing's assertion that it can play a role in resolving global hotspot issues without following Washington down the military route. ‘We have never believed that any country can act as the world’s police, nor do we accept that any nation can claim to be the world’s judge,’ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Pakistani counterpart... ‘The sovereignty and security of all countries should be fully protected under international law,’ Wang added…”
January 6 – Bloomberg: “China criticized the Trump administration’s reported call for Venezuela to sever its alliances with US rivals, labeling the move a ‘bullying act’ as their competition for influence in the region emerges as a new source of friction. ‘The US’s blatant use of force against Venezuela and asking the country to favor America when handling its own oil resources — this is a typical bullying act,’ Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters… ‘Let me stress that China and other countries have legitimate rights in Venezuela, which must be protected.’ The comments follow reports that the White House is demanding Venezuela reduce its relationships with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba after capturing leader Nicolás Maduro…”
January 5 – Wall Street Journal (James T. Areddy): “For two decades, China has been building close ties in Latin America. The U.S. removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro suddenly shifts the playing field in the Western Hemisphere for Chinese leader Xi Jinping. A special envoy for Xi was in Venezuela’s presidential palace on Friday afternoon, enjoying a laugh with Maduro as the South American leader was trying out a few words in Mandarin, just hours before U.S. Special Forces backed by 150 military aircraft flew into Caracas to snatch the strongman. The business-as-usual atmosphere indicated Beijing had no idea what was about to unfold for Xi’s ‘all-weather strategic partnership’ with Venezuela. ‘China is deeply shocked and strongly condemns the U.S.’s blatant use of force against a sovereign state and its attack on its president,’ Beijing’s Foreign Ministry said… The language indicated surprise at a situation that was out of its control. The Foreign Ministry has used ‘deeply shocked’ terminology in response to terrorist attacks and perhaps not for a decade, said Sabine Mokry, a researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Germany’s University of Hamburg.”
January 5 – New York Times (Alexandra Stevenson): “The bargain was struck when China was thirsty for oil and Venezuela was hungry for cash. Now, with the ouster of Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, the partnership’s future is in question. In the early 2000s, China’s economy was expanding at such a voracious pace that it needed more energy to power its growth. Beijing, which imports most of its oil, sent its companies to scour the world to secure access to resources. They found a willing partner in Venezuela… The two countries struck a trade partnership that would yield more than $100 billion in financing promises from China in exchange for Venezuelan oil. The Chinese money financed railways and power plants and gave Caracas much-needed cash.”
January 7 – Financial Times (David Sheppard, Chris Cook, Malcolm Moore, Jude Webber and Max Seddon): “The US has seized a Russian oil tanker after a weeks-long pursuit across the Atlantic Ocean, in the Trump administration’s latest high-stakes demonstration of the American military’s power and reach. The US military’s European Command… said it had boarded the Marinera, which was previously known as the Bella 1, over alleged sanctions violations. ‘The vessel was seized in the north Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a US federal court’ after being tracked by a US coastguard ship…”
January 8 – Financial Times (David Pilling): “Chinese, Russian and Iranian vessels have sailed into a South African port ahead of week-long naval exercises that follow a surge in tensions over US military operations in Venezuela and the Atlantic. The South African National Defence Force… said the planned exercises starting on Friday — dubbed Will for Peace 2026 — would involve ‘Brics Plus’ nations. Beijing’s defence ministry said China and Russia would participate alongside South Africa. Iran’s largest naval vessel, the Makran, a converted merchant ship previously called the Persian Gulf, was also this week observed sailing into False Bay…”
January 5 – Financial Times (Ben Hall and Richard Milne): “Latvian authorities have searched a ship suspected of damaging an undersea optic cable in the Baltic, the sixth outage or damage to an underwater cable in the region in as many days, as western allies remain on alert for Russian interference.”
China v. Japan Watch:
January 6 – Wall Street Journal (Jason Douglas and Junko Fukutome): “China said it banned the export to Japan of goods with potential military uses, intensifying Beijing’s retaliation against Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi over remarks she made about Taiwan. The export ban takes effect immediately… The move marks an escalation in Beijing’s pressure campaign against Tokyo and could pinch Japan’s economy by squeezing supplies of critical minerals and components used by Japanese factories. Beijing’s move also showcases to the rest of the world the economic weapons China has at its disposal to strike back at countries it perceives as adversaries and deter others from speaking out on Taiwan.”
January 8 – Bloomberg: “China is ramping up objections to what it sees as Japan’s desire to acquire nuclear weapons, despite Tokyo’s longstanding renunciation of such arms, deepening another fissure in the two neighbors’ increasingly tense ties. In what appears to be a concerted effort, China’s foreign and defense ministries issued statements… condemning alleged re-militarism efforts by Tokyo. The remarks came as two of the country’s top think tanks jointly issued a 29-page report framing recent actions by ‘right wing forces’ in Japan as posing a ‘serious threat’ to world peace.”
January 6 – Financial Times (Joe Leahy and Harry Dempsey): “China has banned exports of ‘dual-use’ goods to Japan’s military, as Beijing steps up a diplomatic row with Tokyo over comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last year on Taiwan. China’s commerce ministry said any person or entity anywhere in the world would be punishable under the order… ‘The recent erroneous remarks made by Japanese leaders regarding Taiwan, which hinted at the possibility of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, constitute a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, a serious violation of the one-China principle,’ the ministry said…”
January 7 – New York Times (River Akira Davis): “Coded threats from China that it might restrict exports of rare earths to Japan have raised alarms across Japanese business and politics, signaling a sharp escalation in a monthslong geopolitical feud between the countries. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would ban the export to Japan of all ‘dual-use’ items with potential military applications, citing national security concerns. The official announcement… was vague on specific commodities. Government-affiliated media, however, said Beijing was considering whether to include certain rare earths among the items it was restricting.”
January 6 – Reuters (Satoshi Sugiyama and Kantaro Komiya): “Japan called China’s ban on dual-use exports for its military ‘absolutely unacceptable’…, amid a looming threat of broader curbs on vital rare earths in an escalating dispute between Asia's top two economies… ‘A measure such as this, targeting only our country, differs significantly from international practice, is absolutely unacceptable and deeply regrettable,’ said Japan’s top government spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara.”
Ukraine War Watch:
January 9 – Associated Press (Samya Kullab and Illia Novikov): “Russia bombarded Ukraine with hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles in a large-scale overnight attack, officials said… For only the second time in the nearly 4-year-old war, it used a powerful, new hypersonic missile that struck western Ukraine in a clear warning to Kyiv’s NATO allies. The intense barrage and the launch of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile came days after Ukraine and its allies reported major progress toward agreeing on how to defend the country from further Moscow aggression if a U.S.-led peace deal is struck.”
AI Bubble/Arms Race Watch:
January 4 – Financial Times (Michael Contopoulos): “Meta’s 40-year bond sale last year was widely seen as a vote of confidence in Big Tech and artificial intelligence given the strong demand for the debt. Investors lined up to lend for four decades to a company considered among the world’s most financially secure. But what looks like confidence may instead be complacency. Corporate bond investors are quietly absorbing enormous speculative risk and that is unlikely to bode well for equity holders. For years, tech’s appeal stemmed from asset-light, cash-rich business models. Pristine balance sheets and minimal debt weren’t just attractive; they were defining features… But in the scramble for AI capacity, these companies have morphed into capital-intensive utilities with huge infrastructure commitments, both on and off balance sheets.”
Bubble and Mania Watch:
January 6 – Associated Press (Levi Sumagaysay Calmatters): “As California becomes more dependent on tax revenue from the tech industry, its stake in the health of the artificial intelligence industry has grown. The state is seeing financial benefits from the AI boom, a new analysis by the Legislative Analyst’s Office shows. But the boom raises questions: Will it continue to be accompanied by a decline in tech and other jobs? Is it a bubble? Tax revenue from stock-option withholding paid by some of the state’s biggest tech companies made up about 10% of all income tax withholding in 2025, estimated Chas Alamo, the principal fiscal and policy analyst with the LAO.”
January 8 – Bloomberg (James Crombie): “Excess liquidity has inflated asset prices across markets beyond just artificial intelligence, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors. ‘We’re kind of in an everything bubble at the moment,’ said Mike Contopoulos, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer. ‘It’s not just AI — it’s crypto, it’s meme stocks, it’s SPACs, it’s IG credit, it’s high-yield credit,’ he said…”
January 7 – Wall Street Journal (Kate Clark): “Fundraising for U.S. venture-capital firms dropped 35% in 2025, the most anemic stretch in at least six years, with money flowing primarily to the most trusted investment firms as companies stay private longer. The $66 billion raised last year represents a 70% drop from the 2022 record, according to new data from research firm PitchBook.”
January 8 – Financial Times (Pras Subramanian): “General Motors will take an additional $6 billion charge to its EV business, the automaker said in an SEC filing posted after the bell on Thursday. This comes after softer-than-expected demand for EVs and the loss of the federal EV tax credit at the end of Q3 2025.”
Deflating Crypto Bubble Watch:
January 5 – Bloomberg (David Pan): “Bitcoin accumulator Strategy Inc. had a $17.44 billion unrealized loss in the fourth quarter tied to the decline in the value of the Michael Saylor-led company’s roughly $63 billion cryptocurrency stockpile.”
Inflation Watch:
January 8 – Bloomberg (Matthew Boesler): “US inflation expectations rose in December while perceptions of job availability were the worst in at least 12.5 years, according to a monthly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Consumers saw prices rising 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November, according to a report released Thursday. The probability consumers assigned to finding a job if they lost theirs fell to 43.1% — the lowest in the history of the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which dates to mid-2013.”
January 6 – Wall Street Journal (Jared Mitovich): “Nineteen states raised their minimum wage starting this month, providing a pay bump to an estimated 8.3 million workers… Thirty states have now set a higher minimum wage than the federal minimum of $7.25 an hour. On Jan. 1, Washington state adopted the highest state-level rate at $17.13 an hour, becoming the first state to enact an hourly minimum above $17… In Hawaii, baseline hourly rates rose by $2 to $16… In Nebraska and Missouri, voter-passed ballot initiatives brought those states’ minimum wages up to $15 an hour... For the first time, more workers now live in states that pay $15 or higher per hour than those that have kept the $7.25 minimum…”
Federal Reserve Watch:
January 8 – Bloomberg (Christopher Anstey and Daniel Flatley): “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he anticipates that President Donald Trump decides on a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this month. Trump plans to attend the annual forum in Davos, Switzerland — scheduled for Jan. 19-23 — and the timeframe for a Fed decision may be ‘right before or right after that — I think in January,’ Bessent said…”
January 8 – Financial Times (Jennifer Schonberger): “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said… the Federal Reserve needs to do its part to boost investment in the economy and that interest rates should be substantially lower. ‘The White House can only do so much; at a certain point, the Federal Reserve must also do its part to spur investment,’ Bessent said... ‘I think that we are still substantially above the neutral rate, and I think that we should not be in restrictionary mode’.”
January 8 – Bloomberg (Enda Curran): “Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said he is looking for 150 bps of interest-rate cuts this year to boost the labor market. Describing monetary policy as restrictive, Miran said underlying inflation is likely running at 2.3%, which means Fed officials have room to cut further. ‘I’m looking for about a point and a half of cuts. A lot of that is driven by my view of inflation,’ Miran said… ‘Underlying inflation is running within noise of our target, and that’s a good indication of where overall inflation is going to be going in the medium term’.”
January 5 – Bloomberg (Catarina Saraiva): “Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said interest rates may be close to a neutral level for the US economy now, leaving it up to incoming data to guide the central bank’s actions. ‘Over the last couple of years, we kept thinking the economy is going to slow down, and the economy has proven to be far more resilient than I had expected,’ Kashkari… said… ‘That tells me, well, monetary policy must not be putting that much downward pressure on the economy. My guess is we’re pretty close to neutral right now,’ he said.”
U.S. Economic Bubble Watch:
January 7 – Axios (Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown): “The final months of 2025 offered plenty of reasons for labor market alarmism. Job creation slowed to a near halt, the unemployment rate edged to its highest level in four years, and the business news wires were chockablock with AI-inflected layoff announcements. But the job market looks more stable than those headlines would suggest. Private-sector data for December points to some stabilization in demand for workers… In effect, the job market showed weakness through the fall before stabilizing and perhaps improving in December…”
January 3 – Associated Press (Christopher Rugaber): “Sluggish December hiring concluded a year of weak employment gains… Employers added just 50,000 jobs last month, nearly unchanged from a downwardly revised figure of 56,000 in November… The unemployment rate slipped to 4.4%, its first decline since June, from 4.5% in November… Nearly all the jobs added in December were in the health care and restaurant and hotel industries. Health care added 38,500 jobs, while restaurants and hotels gained 47,000. Governments — mostly at the state and local level — added 13,000.”
January 7 – Yahoo Finance (Emma Ockerman): “US private employers brought on 41,000 new positions in December, according to data from… ADP… Still, December's gains essentially erased November's losses, with revised ADP data from the previous month’s report showing private employers dropped 29,000 jobs in November, fewer than the previously reported 32,000… ‘Even in those sectors that shed jobs this month, the shedding was not as strong as last month,’ ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said... ‘In that sense, it's better news than we saw in November’.”
January 7 – Reuters (Lucia Mutikani): “U.S. job openings dropped to a 14-month low in November while hiring resumed its sluggish tone… Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 303,000 to 7.146 million by the last day of November, the… Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. That was the lowest level since September 2024. October’s openings were revised down to 7.449 million.”
January 7 – Bloomberg (Jarrell Dillard): “US services activity expanded in December at the fastest pace in more than a year, fueled by solid demand growth and a pickup in hiring. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024… New orders expanded by the most since September 2024 and a measure of business activity, which parallels the ISM’s factory output gauge, climbed to a one-year high. Export bookings grew at the fastest pace in more than a year… ‘The broad-based strength in the headline index suggests that conditions in the services sector are picking up, hinting at the potential for some more broad-based economic growth,’ Alexandra Brown, North America economist at Capital Economics, said…”
January 8 – Financial Times (Zehra Munir): “The US trade deficit narrowed to its lowest level since 2009 in October, as Donald Trump’s tariffs continued to prompt fluctuations in imports. The gap between imports and exports of goods fell 39% from the previous month to $29.4bn… That reduced the deficit to its narrowest level in more than 16 years…”
January 7 – Reuters (Neil J Kanatt): “U.S. online holiday spending growth slowed in the 2025 season, Adobe Analytics data showed…, even as shoppers set a record on the back of steep discounts and wider use of buy-now-pay-later plans. Online spending from November 1 through December 31 rose 6.8% to $257.8 billion… That compared to an 8.7% rise in online spending during the same period last year. Adobe said spending beat its prior forecast of $253.4 billion in online sales for the season.”
January 5 – New York Times (Neal E. Boudette): “The auto industry is facing some big challenges... Yet sales of new cars in the United States are expected to have risen modestly in 2025, to about 16.3 million. Several large automakers… told investors… they had closed out the year with strong sales. How is that possible? The auto industry has evaded a slump largely because affluent Americans… continued to buy new cars at a decent clip... Families with a household income of $150,000 a year or more now buy 43% of the new cars sold in the country, up from one-third of all cars sold in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic…”
China Watch:
January 6 – New York Times (Li Yuan): “When U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, Chinese social media lit up. People with nationalist views asked: Why can’t Beijing do the same in Taiwan and arrest its president? On the other side of the political spectrum, people cheered the downfall of a dictator… Within hours, the discourse online became a proxy debate over China’s power, its limits and its future. For nationalist Chinese, the U.S. military operation had exposed American lawlessness and frustrations in China at what they believe is Beijing’s restraint, particularly on Taiwan… On the social media site Weibo, the hashtag related to Mr. Maduro’s seizure rose to the No. 1 position on the platform’s hot-search list. It drew over 600 million views in the first 24 hours…”
January 8 – CNBC (Anniek Bao): “China’s consumer inflation accelerated in December to the fastest pace in nearly three years as spending picked up ahead of the New Year holiday… Consumer prices rose 0.8% from a year earlier, their highest level since February 2023…”
January 4 – Reuters (Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo): “China’s services activity expanded at its slowest pace in six months in December, as growth in new business softened and foreign demand declined… The RatingDog China General Services PMI, compiled by S&P Global, edged down to 52.0 in December from 52.1 the previous month, marking the weakest reading since June.”
January 8 – Bloomberg: “China Vanke Co. is preparing a debt restructuring plan at the request of authorities…, pushing one of the country’s largest real estate developers closer to default. Vanke… was recently asked by authorities to accelerate its overhaul and submit the plan as soon as possible… Normally a restructuring would lead to suspension of debt payments and result in a default. The developer has faced mounting strains from nearly $50 billion in interest‑bearing liabilities. A restructuring would be one of China’s biggest-ever and would be the clearest signal yet that Vanke’s largest shareholder, state-backed Shenzhen Metro Group Co., won’t be bailing the firm out.”
Europe Watch:
January 7 – Financial Times (Olaf Storbeck and Ian Smith): “Eurozone inflation fell to 2% in December, hitting the European Central Bank’s target for the first time since the summer and strengthening the case for interest rates to remain on hold… In December, the ECB held its benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth meeting in a row.”
Japan Watch:
January 4 – Bloomberg (Toru Fujioka): “Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda used his first public appearance in the new year to underscore his intention to keep raising the benchmark rate in a speech to private bankers. ‘We will keep raising rates in line with improvement in the economy and inflation,’ Ueda said… ‘The appropriate adjustment of monetary easing will lead to the achievement of stable inflation target and longer-term economic growth.’ The comments… made it clear that Ueda hasn’t finished dialing back monetary easing after bringing the rate to the highest since 1995.”
January 6 – Reuters (Satoshi Sugiyama): “Japan’s service sector expanded at its slowest pace since May in December… The S&P Global final Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.6 in December from 53.2 in November, worse than a flash reading of 52.5 but remaining above the 50.0 line that separates growth from contraction for the ninth consecutive month.”
Social, Political, Environmental, Cybersecurity Instability Watch:
January 7 – Bloomberg (Magdalena Del Valle and John Harney): “President Donald Trump has ordered the US government to pull out of 66 international organizations that the White House said ‘no longer serve American interests.’ In a presidential memorandum…, Trump directed US agencies and departments to ‘cease participating in and funding 35 non-United Nations organizations and 31 UN entities that operate contrary to US national interests, security, economic prosperity, or sovereignty’… The US was withdrawing from efforts to ‘promote radical climate policies, global governance, and ideological programs that conflict with US sovereignty and economic strength’.”
De la Justicia con mayúsculas todos hablan mucho con un «sentimiento mágico de lo justo», mientras que de la «justicia» con minúsculas, o del caso concreto, se habla con un «sentimiento práctico de lo justo», según le va la feria al que se enreda en litigios, o sea, según sus intereses.
Sin embargo, es preciso completar el análisis y examinar la situación y valoración de la persona del juez. Tras la justicia están los jueces de los que se quiere creer que son esfinges frías, imparciales e inmunes a humanas debilidades. Sin embargo, el mazo, la toga o la autoridad solemne no pueden ocultar la persona que hay detrás.
Los jueces en 1975 y en 2025
José Juan Toharia (discípulo de su casi tocayo Linz, que se dice pronto) publicó precisamente en 1975 el libro El juez español. Un análisis sociológico, que recogía su tesis doctoral de Yale del año anterior. Se trató de una encuesta a 191 togados de entre los 1048 que había entonces y en la línea de los estudios análogos que se habían llevado a cabo en otros países, como Francia (1957, Serge Fuster, Les juges) o Estados Unidos (1965, Glendon Schubert, The judicial mind: the attitudes and ideologies of Supreme Court Justices, 1946-1963). Se empezaba a caer en la cuenta de que las normas suelen admitir más de una interpretación y que quien opta por una de ellas -en eso consiste el oficio- no constituye la boca que pronuncia las palabras de la ley sino que es una persona con sus sesgos. Y, como todos, incluyendo los simples objetos, no insensible a las condiciones de presión, humedad y temperatura de cada momento. Las torres de marfil -lo que en física se llaman sistemas cerrados- no existen.
Sí, desde 1978 hasta 2025 han pasado muchos años (casi tantos como desde 1975). El gremio de ha incrementado -hay casi 6.000, con un porcentaje creciente de mujeres- y, en lo cualitativo, lo más relevante se encuentra en que, a la hora del control de los políticos, la jurisdicción contenciosa se ha autoexcluido y su lugar lo ha ocupado la penal, en singular en la fase de instrucción, sobre todo en materias tan relevantes como el urbanismo (con la introducción en 1995 de un delito con ese objeto) y la adjudicación de contratos públicos, en particular a partir de la pandemia de 2020, cuando de la noche a la mañana hizo falta suministrarse de mascarillas y demás material sanitario. La consecuencia es que ahora ese control se ejerce por medios más expeditivos y mediáticos, lo que a su vez genera que en el oficialismo -o los oficialismos, porque hay varios- se haya desatado un odio visceral hacia las togas. Es lo que estudia Toharia en su nuevo libro en el Capítulo 6, La imagen social de la justicia hoy, páginas 91 y siguientes, donde los datos son, en su mayoría, muy favorables. Por ejemplo:
