We have a lengthier post than usual today to catch you up on the doings of the Atlantic, which may be opening its doors to business this week. We’ll call it a soft opening for now. Just a reminder that you can subscribe and get these posts in your inbox, by signing up for email updates to the right (on desktop) or at the bottom (on mobile).
And a reminder that we’re here to cover the entire Atlantic basin, not just the Texas coast.
One-sentence summary
Hurricane season should pick up some later this week, with one or possibly two systems potentially trying to develop in the eastern Atlantic.
Happening now: Peak season begins this week. Maybe.
The tropics look to remain quiet the next couple days at least, but as waves begin to emerge off Africa this week, we’ll watch the late week period for the potential of some development. If we look at the satellite imagery over Africa this morning, we can see the beginnings of this burst of activity.
Bright colors indicate thunderstorm activity, and there’s a lot of that over the western portions of Africa this morning. (Weathernerds.org)
From this morass, we expect about two primary disturbances to show themselves. Both the GFS & European models are now in decent agreement on that for day 5.
You can click to enlarge this image showing where two disturbances should emerge by the end of this week off Africa. (Tropical Tidbits)
The eastern Atlantic seems to be the most likely area for development to occur at the tail end of the near-term period, and it would likely be one or two waves that could do it. That being said, there is going to be a lot of “noise” out there with this stuff. You really need these disturbances to break out of this noise to have a good shot at developing; destructive interference can be a thing. The National Hurricane Center currently has odds of 30 and 20 percent for these disturbances to develop in the next 5 to 7 days.
The NHC has 30% odds of development for the main disturbance expected to emerge off Africa later this week, a fair starting point at this time. (NOAA NHC)
I would say the odds of one system developing is probably above 50 percent right now. The odds of two systems developing is probably 20 percent or less. Either way, we at least know where to watch this week. We’ll talk about the future of these waves below.
Elsewhere, the European model is slightly bullish on a third piece of activity that makes it close to the Lesser Antilles later this week. I would say the odds of that area becoming something are extremely low right now, so we’ll leave it at that. There is another tropical wave that should make it across the Caribbean or end up near the Bahamas later this week as well, but that will not develop this week. More on that one below.
The medium range (days 6 to 10): An in-depth look at what will drive the bus in the Atlantic
So, with so much noise heading into the period and two dominant features in the eastern Atlantic to focus on, let’s check up on three things to see how this might go: Steering currents, dust/dry air, and wind shear.
Steering currents
Where will these systems go? Beginning later this week, high pressure over the central Atlantic will begin to weaken. By Sunday (day 7), we have a map up at 20,000 feet in the atmosphere that looks like this:
On Sunday, day 7, with high pressure near the African coast and another high over the U.S., it seems plausible that any disturbances in the Atlantic would be likely to gain latitude and turn out to sea rather quickly heading into next week. (Tropical Tidbits)
High pressure has reformed itself by then, somewhere south of the Azores or near the coast of Africa. What does this mean? Well, at first, given the weaker high pressure, we’ll probably see any system(s) in the eastern Atlantic turn to the northwest fairly quickly, particularly if they form quickly. As that happens and the high re-strengthens, that system or those systems will probably get pushed back to the west some. The good news is that it does not appear (for now at least) that the high pressure area will build west as the potential system(s) comes west. This should keep the exit door open to the northwest and north in the Atlantic. The vast majority of ensemble data suggests this to be the case as well. Ensembles give us 30 to 50 runs of the same model with tweaks, so we get a realistic “spread” of options, and in this case, almost all take it out of the way.
The European ensemble, which has been the most aggressive (read: too aggressive) developing things this hurricane season is probably overaggressive here too, but it gives you a sense of a.) what we’re watching and b.) why we feel good about any system turning out to sea. (Weathernerds.org)
The ensemble here is saying to us “Hey, you’ve got a tropical wave here that has a shot at developing, but it will probably turn northwest before it really gets to impact any land.” We expect that it will turn north right now, but we are not sure exactly when. Obviously we will watch this closely, but for now at least, we think this will turn northwest.
Dry air and dust
There is an awful lot of dry air and dust in the Atlantic — right now.
Widespread dry air and dust (which tropical storms do not like) dominates the central Atlantic, but conditions are less hostile immediately off the African coast right now. (Univ of Wisconsin SSEC)
But notice how it relents some near Africa. Initially, dry air probably won’t be a huge obstacle to overcome. But, if you trust modeling, the dry air is going to be a feature, not a bug.
Dry air is not going away completely, which means that any developing systems will have to deal with this in some capacity as they move west or northwest. This probably “caps” intensity of any system(s) a bit. (Tropical Tidbits)
Above, you see a map of mid-level atmospheric moisture on day 8, next Monday. If we box in the area where disturbances *might* be, and then we delineate dry air from moist air, you can see that there’s definitely dry air back in the vicinity of where this system or these systems may be. Tropical storms do not like dry air. It inhibits their growth and development. Assuming dry air is nearby, then you may have a situation where there is a “cap” on how strong these systems can get.
Shear
Another reason to potentially keep a lid on the ceiling for whatever forms is wind shear.
Wind shear looks moderate north of about 20° latitude, so it seems likely that any system is going to either a.) have to fend off some shear early on or b.) eventually encounter it if it comes west, which will also act to keep development odds in check a bit. (Tropical Tidbits)
The wind shear anomalies shown above for the medium range period are less than optimal for tropical storms to develop and strengthen. Wind shear is when winds move in varying directions with height, something that’s not great for hurricanes. The less wind shear, the more hospitable the environment is for tropical systems to grow. For now, this is an okay looking map if you’re rooting against storms.
As always, there are exceptions to the rules, but I think when you look at the sum of the parts right now, between shear, dry air, and the steering pattern, we are not in terrible shape in the Atlantic basin, despite the noise from modeling over the next 10 days.
Elsewhere
Aside from all this, we will have to wait and see if there is any consistency from models on the potential that the lead wave today can manage just enough to survive into the Gulf and then develop, something operational models show to some (modest) extent.
There should be a tropical wave in the Gulf next week (this map from the European model on Monday shows it just south of Louisiana), but odds of development are low to very low at this time. (Tropical Tidbits)
The upper pattern may support the Gulf being open for the Mexico or Texas coast next week, with high pressure centered over Missouri, farther north than it has been most of summer. The question as always is can we do anything with it? We’ll discuss that more through the week.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Active pattern may continue
As of right now, there are no specific concerns in the Atlantic heading out into the longer range. I do believe the pattern will remain fairly active, but the question will be whether or not the hurdles of shear and dry air will be low enough for storms to overcome. We’ll have to wait and see.
Thanks again for running the letter. While I had to eventually nope out of the comments (I found the assumptions some commenters made that I was utterly panicking about the situation a little strange), I gained a lot from the discussion overall. That, plus talking to my friends and my therapist about it, made me realize that I would be better off disclosing in some way. For a variety of reasons, I have never been one to be secretive about much in my life, so I am not used to living with the idea that someone might have something on me, especially if it’s something I don’t think of as shameful.
Thankfully, I had the perfect opportunity to say I was trans to a decent chunk of colleagues in a supportive setting: My workplace hosted its first-ever Pride panel in June, and I was a participant. While my former boss didn’t attend the event, that just under 100 of my colleagues now know I am trans is incredibly reassuring. The reception I got was positive, with people reaching out to me afterwards in a really kind way.
As for lunch, I decided to go back to the patio. I ran into my former boss just once out of the several times I’ve been back there, and she was busy chatting it up with other people. If all this went down because she truly wanted to have people to talk to at lunch, I am genuinely happy that she got what she wanted with people who are not me.
Also, this letter-writer included this to me in their original letter: “In looking for trans-related content on AAM, I ran across an interview with a trans woman about the differences in the workplace as a woman vs. a man. In my going-on three years of being a man in the workplace, I’ve noticed a ridiculous difference myself in the other direction, to the point where I’ve been taking notes and sometimes fuming. If you ever wanted to chat about that, I’m down.” I asked to hear more and here’s their response:
I tell people that transition has only made me more of a feminist, which I already very much was.
The bar for certain things is so much lower for men than for women. It’s really astonishing. I went from being seen as off-putting, unapproachable, and unsociable to approachable, easygoing, and friendly. That’s not just an assumption, that’s based on my actual performance reviews and colleague feedback. On the appearance and grooming front, I went from being seen as, at best, a relatively low-maintenance woman, to being a very sharp and put-together man. I wouldn’t say that I’ve changed all that much as far as how much I socially engage with colleagues, and I spend way less time/money on things like clothes and hair. I feel like so much time and energy has been freed up for other things. I wish everyone could have that kind of choice in the matter without facing so much judgment.
I get questioned on my authority far less, even by people who know little to nothing about my experience and credentials. They assume that because I have a job that I have successfully performed for going on three years now, I must know what I’m talking about. Initially, that backfired. Whenever I made a point, I’d front-load justifications and arguments since that was what I was used to doing to be heard, and people reacted with surprise and confusion. Additionally, I had to learn to stop pushing so hard for space to speak in any given discussion, since everyone in the conversation automatically made room for me. I had to learn to more mildly state my opinion and offer the rest only if asked.
I do try to use my powers for good by signal-boosting my more timid and/or non-male colleagues’ voices. If they’re spoken over or ignored, I’ll say “Hey everyone, did you catch what Colleague said? Pretty good point, Colleague” and turn to them, offering them the opening in the discussion that I just made.
One completely unexpected consequence of the whole dude-authority thing is becoming the organizer for the office book club. The other members (almost all women) decided that I’d be the one to run it, and that was that. I did outright refuse any title. Plus, I have focused on dealing with all the annoying logistics so that everyone else can enjoy reading and discussing, which I think is the type of thing that’s usually foisted on women anyway.
CHICAGO—As he paused midway through his monthly grooming ritual Monday, sources confirmed it was unclear for whose benefit unloved local man Matthew Harris kept trimming his pubic hair. “Why am I doing this? Who cares?” said the romantically uninvolved 37-year-old, staring down at his partially shorn groin as he…
TALLAHASSEE—Calling the move “critical” for the wellbeing of the state’s children, Florida unveiled a new school curriculum Monday that would require students to keep their eyes shut all day until they were safe at home. “Starting today, all 2.8 million students in Florida will be required to keep their eyes closed…
DES MOINES, IA— Hoping to initiate a casual chat with an average citizen during his campaign stop at the Iowa State Fair, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) reportedly said, “Ah, pissing, I love to piss,” this week when attempting to strike up a conversation with a voter. “Boy, do I just adore pissing. What a great way to…
Every trip to Defcon – the massive annual hacker-con in Las Vegas – is a delight. Partly it's the familiar – seeing old friends, getting updates on hacks of years gone by. But mostly, it's the surprises, the things you never anticipated. Defcon never fails to surprise.
I got back from Vegas yesterday and I've just finished unpacking my suitcase, and with it, the tangible evidence of Defcon's cave of wonders. My gear bag has a new essential: Hak5's malicious cable detector, a little USB gizmo that lights up if it detects surreptitious malicious activity, even as it interdicts those nasty payloads:
(In case you're wondering if it's really possible to craft a malicious USB cable that injects badware into your computer and is visually indistinguishable from a regular cable, the answer is a resounding yes, and of course, Hak5 sells those cables, with a variety of USB tips:)
But merch is only a sideshow. The real action is in the conference rooms, where hackers update you on the pursuit of their obsessions. These are such beautiful weirdos who pursue knowledge to ridiculous extremes, untangling gnarly hairballs just to follow a thread to its origin point.
For the second year in a row, I caught a presentation from Joseph Gabay about his work on warshopping: slicing up shopping cart wheels and haunting shopping mall parking lots during resurfacing to figure out how the anti-theft mechanism that stops your cart from leaving the parking lot works:
And of course, I got to give one of those presentations, "An Audacious Plan to Halt the Internet's Enshittification," to a packed house. What a thrill! It was livestreamed, and if you missed it, you'll be able to catch it on Defcon's Youtube page as soon as they upload it (they've got a lot of uploading to do!):
After my talk, I went back to the No Starch Press booth for a book signing – which was amazing, so many beautiful hackers, plus I got to share a signing table with Micah Lee. As I was leaving, Bill Pollock slipped me a giant hardcover art-book, and said, "You're gonna love this."
I did. The book is Open Circuits: The Inner Beauty of Electronic Components, by Windell Oskay and Eric Schlaepfer, and it is a drop-dead gorgeous collection of photos of electronic components, painstakingly cross-sectioned and polished:
The photos illustrate layperson-friendly explanations of what each component does, how it is constructed, and why. Perhaps you've pondered a circuit board and wondered about the colorful, candy-shaped components soldered to it. It's natural to assume that these are indivisible, abstract functional units, a thing that is best understood as a reliable and deterministic brick that can be used to construct a specific kind of wall.
But peering inside these sealed packages reveals another world, a miniature land where things get simpler – and more complex. Inside these blobs of resin are snips of wire, plugs of wax, simple screws, fine sheets of metal in stacks, wafers of plain ceramic, springs and screws.
Truly, quantity has a quality all its own. Miniaturize these assemblies and produce them at unimaginable scale and the simple, legible components turn into mystical black boxes that only the most dedicated study can reveal. Like every magician's trick, the unfathomable effect is built up through the precise repetition of something very simple.
A prolonged study of Open Circuits reveals something important about the hacker aesthetic, a collection of graphic design, fashion and industrial design conventions that begins with this realization: that the crisp lines of digital logic can be decomposed into blobby, probabilistic lumps of metal, plastic, and even wax.
It reminds me of George Dyson's brilliant memoir/history of computing, Turing's Cathedral, where he describes how he and the other children of the scientists building the first digital computers at the Princeton Institute spent their summers in the basement, hand-winding cores for the early colossi their parents were building on the floors above them:
In this video, Eric Schlaepfer illustrates the painstaking work that went into decomposing these tiny, precise components into their messy, analog subcomponents. It's pure hacker aesthetic, and it's mesmerizing:
But Open Circuits isn't just an aesthetic journey, it's a technical one. After all, Oskay is co-founder of Evil Mad Scientist Labs, one of the defining places where hardware hackers gather to tear down, pick apart, mod, improve and destroy electronics. The accompanying text is a masterclass in the simple machines that combine together to make complex assemblies:
Defcon is a reminder that the world only seems hermetically sealed and legible to authorized parties with clearance to crack open the box. From shopping cart wheels to thermal fuses, that illegibility is only a few millimeters thick. Sand away the glossy outer layer and you will find yourself in a weird land of wax-blobs, rough approximations, expedient choices and endless opportunities for delight and terror, mischief and care.
#10yrsago Cops accidentally record themselves admitting they harassed activist at rodeo owners’ request: “God, we’re gonna get sued” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgSfCxq0hdY
"Chokepoint Capitalism: How to Beat Big Tech, Tame Big Content, and Get Artists Paid, with Rebecca Giblin", on how to unrig the markets for creative labor, Beacon Press/Scribe 2022 https://chokepointcapitalism.com
"Attack Surface": The third Little Brother novel, a standalone technothriller for adults. The Washington Post called it "a political cyberthriller, vigorous, bold and savvy about the limits of revolution and resistance." Order signed, personalized copies from Dark Delicacies https://www.darkdel.com/store/p1840/Available_Now%3A_Attack_Surface.html
The Internet Con: A nonfiction book about interoperability and Big Tech, Verso, September 2023
The Lost Cause: a post-Green New Deal eco-topian novel about truth and reconciliation with white nationalist militias, Tor Books, November 2023
This work – excluding any serialized fiction – is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. That means you can use it any way you like, including commercially, provided that you attribute it to me, Cory Doctorow, and include a link to pluralistic.net.
Quotations and images are not included in this license; they are included either under a limitation or exception to copyright, or on the basis of a separate license. Please exercise caution.
LOS ANGELES—Insisting that the twist never ceased to shock and amaze them, fans reported Monday that every season finale of the popular drama Black Gardens ended with a close-up of a supposedly dead character’s eye springing open. “Yeah, so they did this in the first five seasons with other characters, but this time…
BERWYN, IL—Beaming as she explained that she was just eating and exercising normally, local woman Jamie Fisher told reporters Monday she was flattered that her doctor thought she had an eating disorder. “Aw, that’s so sweet that he thought I was skinny enough to be starving myself in a dangerous, medically diagnosable…
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green said he has ordered a comprehensive review to understand the actions taken before, during and after last week's wildfires on Maui.
(Image credit: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)
We appreciate your honesty, however this is the last email we will be sending on the matter. Everyone on the team has worked really hard to make the recent merchandise line the best it can be. We accept that this does not give us the right to tell you how to market the product, but we would like to re-emphasise some key points. How you receive these points may impact our future business together:
1. Playing "hard to get" does not work in a sales context, especially when you are selling product as idiosyncratic as a 'don't f*&k my dad' mug. Potentially this design was doomed from the beginning.
2. "Splooge" is not a colour.
3. "Ridiculous Stock" is not a/your catchphrase, it doesn't make sense without context and even with context it does not encourage sales. What is ridiculous about the stock? We urge you to explain, or remove this reference altogether. At the moment it is about 25% of your marketing campaign.
4. Many of the team feel it inappropriate that you demand to try on every piece of clothing before it is shipped for "quality testing". Not only does it delay shipment of the product to customers, but the hand written notes you leave in the pockets are not appreciated. Writing "They be tryn' ta brainwash ye and nab ya tasties!" in hopes of communicating with the customer is confusing, and means we have had to employ extra staff to vet each inseam and hidden pocket. Also, stop sewing more pockets onto the merchandise.
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00:00 Intro 02:25 What is NACS? 08:43 Technical pros (and cons) 11:51 A little history 13:59 Tesla opens it up, for realsies 15:38 Best of all, it will speak CCS 19:36 The many reasons we are switching 27:01 Why I'm cool with it 30:38 800V cars present a wrinkle 33:52 My spicy thoughts on the future of charging networks 43:22 Plug-and-charge for slow charging 46:54 A footnote on V2X technology and the NACS connector
Yesterday’s drought monitor report was pretty much what you’d expect for the Houston area. Drought coverage doubled in size from half the region to the entire region. Severe drought quadrupled from just over 10 percent coverage to over 40 percent coverage, basically along and to the right of Highway 59.
Drought coverage has taken hold of the entire Houston area. (US Drought Monitor)
We’ve seen burn bans expand this week, and I believe we’re getting closer to seeing more water restrictions and conservation measures take hold across the area. Tomball entered that category this week, and I assume other subdivisions and communities are just about there as well.
Wildfire risk remains high to very high over much of the area today and again tomorrow. We may see some modest improvement in that next week with slightly less wind. That would help (though the breeze has certainly helped make the evenings a bit more pleasant at least!).
Wildfire risk remains high to very high today and tomorrow in the northern half of the Houston area. Hill Country is seeing “extreme” fire danger. (Texas A&M Forest Service)
So, today let’s focus on the chances we can maybe, possibly, potentially, perhaps, conceivably see some rain chances next week.
Today through Tuesday
Sunny, hot, breezy this weekend but a bit less next week, and highs in the low-100s and lows near 80 or in the low-80s. Each day. Today through Tuesday. Excessive heat warnings and/or heat advisories will be likely every day.
Yesterday was our 12th straight 100 degree day, as we hit 103° at Bush Airport. That’s Houston’s third longest streak on record. The next one to catch will be 14 straight days, set in 1980. The top streak of 24 days from 2011 will be challenging but the chances of eclipsing it surely are a good deal greater than zero. We still lag total 100 degree day records by a lot, however.
Beyond Tuesday
A lot of y’all have said our reports this week have been downright depressing. They have been! We’ve always promised honesty with you, and there’s been little sign of any real rain or “less hot” weather. So here’s the deal. I want to be optimistic about mid to late next week and some (modest) rain chances. But we’ve seen this happen more than once this year, where modeling sort of relaxes the pattern for a period and then it comes roaring back. So here’s our hint of optimism, but in reality, I would not be out buying umbrellas.
High pressure over the next 5 days is going to anchor near or over Texas. But after about next Tuesday, the high retreats into the Southwest as a pretty aggressive trough digs into the Great Lakes. This “weakens” the ridge over Texas some. By next Friday, any goodwill we have garnered is gone and it’s back to heat, but for those few days at least we might weaken things enough to at least allow for sea breeze showers each afternoon. Here’s a forecast upper level map on Thursday afternoon.
With Houston sitting right on the edge of a potential “weakness” between a ridge in the Southwest and the one east of Bermuda next Thursday, maybe that opens the door for lower-end rain chances next week. MAYBE. (Tropical Tidbits)
That’s only going to give us about a 20 to maybe 25 percent chance of afternoon showers. But that’s about 20 to 25 percent higher than right now. So I want to be realistic about the chances of any change (which is to say, it’s quite low), but I also want to try and keep us somewhat positive! We’ll see how this holds up over the weekend. Meanwhile, please stay cool and hydrated this weekend!
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