A man was shot and killed by police after allegedly threatening residents and staff of a suburban assisted living facility with a chainsaw, with officers attempting to tase the man before eventually firing after he continued trying to attack others with the chainsaw. What do you think?
“It’s just nice to have visitors.”
Isaac Carrol, Pushpin Cushioner
“Good luck getting eyewitness testimony from the memory care unit.”
Daphne Menks, Clarifications Expert
“People see a man attacking the elderly with a chainsaw and immediately assume the worst.”
SAINT-LOUIS-DU-HA!-HA!, QC – Taylor Swift fans – or colloquially known as “swifties” – are reportedly not as fast as their name suggests. “9 mins a kilometer” states anthropologist, Dr. Deidra McCallaghan, “that’s the average walking speed for a human. Swifties are coming in at…exactly 9 minutes a kilometer – or 0.5 nautical knots – which […]
In brief: Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast today in Houston. A stronger line of storms will move through the area tonight, likely with lightning in the middle of the night. So Christmas morning could start with a bang. Most of the holiday should be fine, weather-wise. Expect mild temperatures for the remainder of the year.
Clouds streets above Houston streets
Tory Gattis sent in the following photos yesterday, which he observed over Midtown in Houston. These are fairly low lying in the sky, so they’re stratocumulus clouds. The straight-line nature of the clouds is colloquially known as cloud streets, and more formally as horizontal convective rolls. The precise reason why they form is actually not particularly well understood, but they sure are pretty to look at. We will see more clouds today, but they are likely to be of a more ominous nature.
Today, tonight, and Christmas
Houston’s weather will turn more dynamic this morning as an upper-level disturbance approaches the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, with the potential for some slightly more organized activity this evening. High temperatures today will reach the mid-70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light, from the southeast. All in all, if you can dodge a few showers and storms, conditions today should not be too disruptive.
However the story could be different tonight, as an organized line of showers and thunderstorms marches down into Houston from the northwest. I expect this line of storms, likely with a fair bit of lightning, to reach areas north and west of Houston (i.e. Katy and The Woodlands) by just before or around midnight, give or take. It should then push through the Houston metro area between midnight and sunrise on Christmas Day. Some of our latest modeling indicates this may be a rather noisy passage, with briefly heavy rainfall and lots of lightning. If Santa’s coming and going doesn’t wake the dogs, these storms probably will. Damaging winds are possible, as well as a slight chance of hail. Most areas should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, with some higher bullseyes.
A simulated radar image shows storms moving into Houston at 2 am CT on Christmas morning. (Weather Bell)
The good news is that the storms should be off the coast and off to the east of the Houston metro area by fairly early on Christmas Day morning. The storms will drag a weak front into the area, so expect high temperatures in the lower 70s on Christmas, with slightly drier air. Some additional light, scattered showers will be possible with partly to mostly cloudy skies, however I think the rain will be over for most. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s to 60 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
The front won’t last long, and with a soggy atmosphere in place expect warm days in the mid-70s to end the holiday week. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, and both of these days and nights will have a decent chance of rainfall. These showers should be less explosive than those expected on Christmas morning, and accumulations far less.
Saturday and Sunday
We should see more sunshine this weekend, although we can’t rule out a few showers on Saturday morning ahead of another weak front. Saturday should be nice, with slightly drier air, and nighttime temperatures falling into the 50s. Sunday should also be sunny, with moderately drier air, and highs in the mid-70s. Rain chances are near zero.
Next week
We probably will see the return of a warmer, more southerly flow early next week. We’ll likely also see a slight chance of showers at well. At some point, perhaps on New Year’s Eve, or New Year’s Day, a much stronger front will arrive. This should bring us seasonal weather for 2025, starting the year off on a winter-like note. Details to come.
Houston’s temperatures will turn more seasonal in early 2025. (Pivotal Weather)
Merry Christmas to all!
Please do be aware of the potential for storms tonight and early tomorrow. We’ll be keeping an eye on things, and if they look more dramatic than your typical Houston thunderstorms, we will update the site later today. However, if the forecast stays on track we probably will take Christmas Day off from posting. So please have a wonderful day.
In brief: Good morning on this fine Christmas Day. Santa sure brought the thunder last night, didn’t he? We are interrupting your holiday with a short update to note that another round of storms is possible Thursday as we see a similar setup: Lots of moisture in the atmosphere and a weak frontal boundary.
Christmas Day
The storms have cleared our area to the east, and we’ll see a calm day today. Look for high temperatures around 70 degrees, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and possibly a few light, lingering showers. Tonight will be mild, with lows in the lower 60s. The bottom line is that, soggy soils aside, any activities today and this evening should be fine.
Severe weather outlook for Thursday and Thursday night. (NOAA)
Thursday
As atmospheric moisture levels rise, we’ll see the possibility of some fog on Thursday morning to go along with some fairly humid conditions. The problem is that we’re going to see another disturbance propagate down from the northwest during the daytime. What this likely means is that the Houston region (particularly coastal areas, maybe?) will see the potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Then, later on Thursday afternoon or early evening, we’ll see a line of storms move down from the northwest to southeast. I’m not convinced these storms will be as organized as what we saw early on Christmas morning, but there’s the potential for some damaging winds, more hail, and briefly heavy rainfall. They might also strike during rush hour. The storms should clear the area before midnight.
Afterward, Friday and the weekend looks pretty pleasant. We’ll have all the details on that in our forecast on Thursday morning. Until that time, have a wonderful holiday!
This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.
A couple of years ago, someone shared what I consider to be the best holiday date story of all time, and it must be shared here again. Enjoy:
When I was fresh out of college, a dude in my social circle invited me to his fancy work Christmas party. He was a teacher, so I’d kind of assumed I was there as friend to act as a buffer between well-intentioned female colleagues who wanted to set him up with one another, with their daughters, etc. I was wrong! This invitation to a work Christmas party was meant to be the first date of a magical relationship between two people destined to be together. Why a magical relationship? When I opened the door, he said he’d hope we’d have a magical night leading to a magical relationship. Then HE DID A MAGIC TRICK. I was… startled.
The party was at a country club, where he drove around and around looking for a space while I said “they have valet. it’s only valet” over and over. Inside there was a coat check. He didn’t want to leave his coat–because there were additional magic tricks secreted inside. We went in, got our drink tickets and our seating assignment. I sat down at a table that was mostly single women several years older than we were. He offered to get me a drink, and I asked for a glass of any kind of wine. He came back several minutes later with a mudslide because girls love mudslides, because they’re chocolate and girls love chocolate. I don’t. But he tried! That’s sweet! Right? Over dinner, I tried to make that sort of general polite conversation people make around banquet tables with strangers. He kept jostling my arm to get my attention to show me another magic trick.
At the beginning of the evening, I really thought we were casual friends, but I was single and kind of open to dating this guy if we got on well. Maybe that hokey line was a story we’d tell our grandchildren! But it was becoming increasingly clear that this guy was Not for Me. That didn’t mean I wanted to embarrass him in front of his principal, though. I finally said something like, “Would you mind terribly saving those for after dinner? I’m really interested in hearing more about Harriet’s begonias, aren’t you?”
He pushed his chair back and stalked across the ballroom to a piano. He plopped down and proceeded to pound out an assortment of sad pop hits. There was Muzak-y Christmas music, but he was gonna play the piano anyway. At this point, I was embarrassed to have come with this guy. My tablemates were embarrassed for me. One of them left and came back with the glass of wine I’d asked for initially. I drank it while the middle aged ladies at our table told me all about their various bad dates. More wine showed up. Then someone asked if I like martinis and brought a martini. Apparently none of them drank, and, as my date played “You’re So Vain” while staring mournfully at me, I drank my way through pretty much all their drink tickets. I am an effusively nice drunk person. I told each and every one of these women that they were beautiful angels shaping tomorrow’s great minds to recognize the power of sisterhood and human kindness. Or something to that general effect. My memory is a bit fuzzy, for obvious, gin-based reasons.
My date wanted to leave, so I went to coat check. I tipped the coat check person, and he reached in the tip jar to fish out my money. I thought he was going to pay the tip. Nope. He told me coat check is free. I said I know. I put my tip back in the jar and sidestepped him when he tried to help with my jacket. His department chair and her husband appeared and said that my apartment was on their way and they’d be happy to drive me. I told them they were “hashtag relationship goals” and made an actual hashtag with my fingers.
I was driven home by way of Taco Bell by these very nice strangers. A week later, the guy called to say his work friends loved me and would I like to go out again. I would not.
A few years later, a friend was telling me about a legendary party her school hosted before she got a job there. A girl nobody knew got plastered and told everyone she loved and appreciated them while her boyfriend played the piano at her and drowned out the Christmas music. I did not reveal my identity. Maybe there’re two of us? I hope there’re two of us.
CHARLOTTE, NC—After finding only a large, plain envelope with his name on it under the tree, local foster child Dylan Mayfield reportedly began to worry Wednesday that the few measly sheets of paper solidifying his adoption would be his only Christmas present this year. “That was a really nice gesture and all, and they seemed so excited, but I specifically asked for a basketball or a dirt bike,” said the newly minted permanent member of the local Johnson family, feigning a smile as he secretly prayed that the legal document was only the first of many presents he would open on the morning of Dec. 25. “Don’t get me wrong, I’m really excited about officially becoming part of their family, but if they had given me the choice, I probably would have picked the new Lego Horizon Adventures game. I’m sure the lawyers and the whole process cost a lot of money, but this doesn’t really account for Santa—did he not swing by with anything from my list? At least let me open up something wrapped in festive paper. I’d even settle for a bow slapped on a bag of candy.” Mayfield told reporters he had tried to trade with his foster sister for a better gift, only to find out she got the same boring thing.
LEAWOOD, KS—Taking the rumpled package out from behind his back, an excited Travis Kelce reportedly surprised girlfriend Taylor Swift Wednesday by handing a wrapped, football-shaped gift to the pop super star. “Here you go, babe,” said the 35-year-old Kansas City Chiefs tight end who watched eagerly as Swift regarded the oblong, sloppily wrapped package. “A special Christmas present, just for my sweetheart. I think you’re really going to love it, Tay. Go ahead, you can shake it, it’s not fragile.” At press time, an argument had broken out between the couple after it was revealed Kelce had gotten the gift for free at work.
Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” turns 30 years old this holiday season. The Onion looks back on Mariah Carey’s career in honor of the Christmas hit.
4 B.C.: The son of God is delivered unto man, and the Lord in Heaven dispatches an angel to sing his word each solstice hitherto.
1969: Post-birth first cry shatters every piece of glass in Long Island Community Hospital.
1975: Carey’s rendition of “Happy Birthday” at a classmate’s party is, quite frankly, unremarkable.
1993: Moves into the Macy’s bedding department while writing her first Christmas album in order to better understand the culture she wants to represent.
1994: Carey releases “All I Want for Christmas Is You” after her record label worries the original version “All I Want for Christmas Is for O. J. Simpson to Be Found Guilty” would be too controversial.
2001: Osama bin Laden carries out 9/11 attacks to ensure Glitter flops at the box office.
2003: Watches America sleepwalk into war with Iraq.
2009: Takes one goddamn minute for herself, you jackals.
2017: Appears in The Lego Batman Movie because sure, why not.
2024: Cements her title as the Queen of Christmas by marrying Charlie Brown.
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is floating Elon Musk to be Speaker of the House after the powerful tech billionaire helped torpedo a bipartisan agreement on a short-term spending bill, a move made possible by the fact that the Constitution does not specify that the House Speaker must be a member of the chamber. What do you think?
“If there’s anyone who knows how to be a useless figurehead, it’s Elon Musk.”
Max Flores, Unemployed
“That kind of legal workaround should be reserved only for dogs playing basketball.”
VANCOUVER – Local TV news anchor Mitch Huggins was shaking with anticipation Tuesday as local news affiliate WKQC-8 prepared for its yearly tradition of modestly recognizing the existence of Hannukah. “It’s a magical time of year. We dust off the old graphic of a Menorah with too few branches, and get the most Christian reporter […]
An estimated 120 million packages are stolen every year. With holiday shopping in full swing,The Onion shares tips for preventing package theft.
Ask neighbors to keep an eye out for any packages they’d like to steal themselves.
Have your packages sent to a P.O. box so that you won’t pick them up either.
Employ a grizzled watchman to stalk about your grounds with a raised lantern and a wary eye.
Request that your delivery worker idle in your driveway until you get back from vacation.
Go deep undercover and spend the next five years violently ascending the ranks of the local package thief ring.
Get a dog so that any would-be thieves take the dog instead of your packages.
Sign up for in-home delivery, allowing workers to place your packages inside as long as they agree to never, ever open the red door at the end of the long, dark hall.
Gain direct access to Amazon warehouses by seducing Jeff Bezos.
Install a Ring flamethrower.
Cultivate a state of vairagya and move beyond material desires; the package was never truly yours to begin with.
John Forse is an artist living and working in Houston, Texas. He graduated with his MFA from the University of Houston and has exhibited at venues across Texas, including Box 13 Artspace, the College of the Mainland Art Gallery Satellite Space, 500X Gallery, Flatland Gallery, and Domy Books in Austin and Houston. His art addresses themes of masculinity, popular culture, consumerism, and digital spaces.
“All I Want for Christmas Is You… to Acknowledge Receipt of the Referral I’ve Sent in Fourteen Damn Times Now”
“I Saw Mommy Charged Five Grand for Gauze”
“Halve Your Wealth to Repair Your Meniscus”
“God Rest Ye Weary New Mother (For Twenty-Four Hours, Then Please Vacate the Maternity Ward)”
“Grandma Got Screwed Over on Her Claim, Dear”
“It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Open Enrollment Runs From November 4 to 6)”
“Here We Come, a-Copaying”
“All I Want for Christmas Is My Two Front Teeth to Be Covered by Regular Health Insurance and Not Considered Special Entities Only Covered by Separate Insurance; They’re Part of My Body, WTF”
“Mary, Did You Know? Your Baby Boy’s a Pre-Existing Condition”
“Have a Blue Christmas (Brought to You by Your Health Partners at Blue Cross Blue Shield)”
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ—With security checkpoints having been set up near every exit, New York Jets fans were reportedly stopped and asked to sign nondisclosure agreements Sunday before leaving MetLife Stadium. “By signing this document, you are agreeing that you will never discuss the details of what happened on that field today with anyone outside of the venue,” said a legal representative for the Jets, adding that none of the tens of thousands of fans in attendance would be allowed to exit the premises unless they accepted the terms of the rigid confidentiality clause, agreeing never to mention the words “awful,” “embarrassing,” “loss,” or “Aaron Rodgers” during the offseason and in perpetuity thereafter. “The results of this game are privileged information that can never get out to the general public without doing great harm to owners, players, and—frankly—you people, who have chosen to be fans of such a humiliating football team. So it’s for your benefit as well as ours that no one knows what happened here today. If any results of that pathetic display you just witnessed leak to the general public, rest assured you will all be held financially liable for any sports bloopers that may result.” At press time, the Federal Communications Commission had been served with an injunction to blur out the scores of televised Jets games for the remainder of the season.
I’ve written in and taken your advice on other topics before — and it has been helpful — but I really struggled with putting things into practice on this one. I think it’s because being directly faced with what feels like genuine absurdity is somehow paralyzing to me. With other issues I’ve dealt with in the past, it’s like we both at least knew we were starting from a point of shared understanding or difficulty but in this one, that’s not the case.
You gave some good tips about how to try and ground the discussions in creating a shared understanding, but overall I took what might be the “easy” way out and steered toward the first part of your advice: if his work wasn’t great, focus on those issues instead. And that hasn’t gone much better!
First though, before I go on, I remember in the comments a lot of people wanted to know examples of the words he would make up. If you’ve ever seen the Knives Out: Glass Onion movie and you’re familiar with the vague nonsense words made up by Edward Norton’s character, it’s just like that! Just this morning we had a chat where he talked about needing to “capacitize” something, which I think meant enabling a feature of some software. There’s also a lot of pronunciation nonsense — recently plethora came out as pleTHORa, which I guess is a mistake some people make but it still feels like a twilight zone moment to me. Other misuses include “repointering” which I’ve gathered usually means to fix; there’s also a lot of “getting up” in relation to things that don’t make sense (so, real words, fake meanings) like “I need to work on getting up my SQLs” which, like, perhaps that means troubleshoot a SQL query, but it’s so very hard to know.
I tried to focus on the work quality issues and I’ve never felt more weirdly gaslit in my managerial life! That term — gaslighting — gets thrown around a lot these days, and I don’t take its use lightly, but he often just starts talking and doesn’t stop and the words coming out are so disconnected from reality! I’ve taken a lot more to just directly telling him I have no idea what he’s trying to say. I also interrupt him way more to tell him to stop talking so I can take what he’s trying to outline step by step, and I’ll often be really specific — like saying, “Stop, let me repeat what I think step 1 of XYZ is, then just tell me, yes or no. Am I correct in my understanding?” It’s much more direct and gruff than I have ever been with an employee and feels unnatural to me, but it has been a bit helpful. Sometimes he still just goes off into word salad but I just interrupt him again.
Now, all of that said, here’s the fun (sarcasm!) part. Someone else in our industry somehow put together that he was working for us, and passed along a note highlighting that he’s also listed as currently working at another organization in an identical role on their website. We went to HR to see what we should do and to ask if the background check had verified start and termination dates for his prior employment, and hilariously our HR person said she “didn’t know if we actually looked at or kept background check information” and then also told us that as long as I couldn’t point to a specific degradation in performance, it was perfectly fine for an employee to have two full-time jobs. She encouraged us to ask him directly, which we did, and he denied it. And that denial was good enough for HR.
More broadly and for other reasons, I’ve soured a bit on my current employer and I think 2025 might be a year to make a change. For that reason, I’ve given up trying to do anything substantive with this employee. He can be their problem after I (hopefully!) find a new gig. That’s perhaps a bad karma choice, but I have been open with my boss and HR about my struggles with managing him and haven’t gotten much support and my current strategies of verbally badgering him into spoon-feeding me updates and progress have resulted in us successfully keeping things running, so there aren’t unrecoverable bad outcomes from his relative incompetence, just a ton of effort on me to keep it all together. My energy to dedicate to that effort is waning, so it’s time to whip out the trusty Ask a Manager guides on job searching and freshen things up!
Hopefully the next time you hear from me it will be a new and interesting problem at a new job! :)
In brief: After a cold, winter-like weekend Houston will now see mild weather for the rest of the year. We’ll also see some rainy days, although at this point Christmas Day itself should be mostly rain free. The overall pattern looks to remain fairly warm until the start of next year, at which point conditions will probably turn significantly colder again.
End of year appreciation
As we near the end of this year, I want to thank everyone who contributes to Space City Weather. I must start with Matt, who has been with me almost since the beginning of the website, and who is the most reliable partner one could ask for. As Space City Weather has grown, Lee has kept us online for the better part of a decade—our server would have drowned during Hurricane Harvey had it not been for him. Dwight is a constant source of advice and support, and ensures we are current on social media. Hussain developed our app almost singlehandedly, and keeps it updated amid constant changes in mobile technology.
Elizabeth, Pat, Megan, and the team at Reliant have backed our site for more than seven years, living up to their name as reliable partners who have enabled us to grow and serve the entire community. Tory and Lauren at Pierpont have been so friendly and helpful (and patient) in promoting the site and supporting events. And finally, dear readers, we have you. Our very most important asset is the trust you hold for our work here. Every morning Matt and I wake up trying to make sure we build that trust, rather than lose it, which is not always the easiest thing to do when predicting the future. So during this holiday season, thank you for believing in us. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy Holidays from us, to you!
Monday
After lows generally in the 30s over the weekend, temperatures at sunrise on Monday are in the low 50s for most of the Houston metro area. And this will probably be our coldest morning this week as high pressure has departed the area and we experience a more southerly flow. Rain chances should hold off today, but we’ll see the return of some clouds as winds come from the southeast, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph this afternoon. Look for highs in the mid-70s, with a mild night and lows generally in the lower 60s.
Severe weather outlook for Tuesday. (NOAA)
Tuesday
Christmas Eve will be warmish, with highs in the mid-70s and mostly cloudy skies. As moisture levels rise in the atmosphere, a disturbance will bring a healthy chance of rain. Starting in the morning, our weather could turn a little bit gnarly, with enough instability to support some thunderstorms, possibly small hail, and heavy rainfall. Most areas probably will see a few tenths of an inch of rain, but some inland locations may pick up 1 inch or more. Healthy rain chances continue during the overnight hours.
Christmas Day
The stormy weather should move off to the east overnight, although we may see some lingering fog on Christmas morning. The day itself should be nice, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Winds should be light. Lows on Christmas night will fall to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for areas further inland.
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
This period will be warm for late December, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and plenty of humidity. Each day will see rain chances on the order of 30 to 50 percent, and perhaps even higher chances on Thursday and Friday nights. All in all, I expect most of Houston to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain during this period, with higher isolated amounts. The days won’t be a total washout, but if you have post-holiday gatherings you may need to dodge some showers. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that we do need the rain.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now though Saturday night. (Weather Bell)
Sunday and beyond
A weak front arrives on Saturday at some point, and this should clear us out. Sunday should be sunny, and cooler, with nights in the 50s. By around New Year’s Eve, or so, a stronger front will arrive to really cool us down for the new year. It’s still too early to have details for the holiday, but the first week of 2025 should be significantly colder, including the potential for a freeze in parts of Houston. We shall see.
At The Eyewall, our ultimate goal is to make this the premier site or newsletter for weather and forecast information. How we get there involves some experimentation more than just forcing a post for post’s sake. Today we’re going to tackle a relatively small forecast bust that occurred in the Upper Midwest last week that speaks to the difficulties of forecasting sometimes.
In brief: Below, I show a case in Minnesota last week where the forecast sort of misplaced the higher-end snow totals. While modeling had been generally supportive of the higher snow totals along and north of I-94, which goes through Minneapolis, the highest totals actually ended up between Minneapolis and Mankato, south of I-94. It wasn’t a busted forecast in a classic sense, but it offered an opportunity to assess how models did. And wouldn’t you know it, the European AI modeling seemed to be the most consistent in identifying the riskiest areas for highest precip totals as being south of I-94.
If you read every one of our posts every day throughout hurricane season (bless your heart and thank you if you did), you would have noticed a bit of a change in “tone” or frequency of us discussing things like AI modeling or the ICON model. One post in particular stands out regarding Hurricane Francine.
I’ve been professionally forecasting weather for over 20 years now, and much like a generation of forecasters before me witnessed in their careers, I firmly believe we are witnessing one of the most consequential forecasting “revolutions,” if you will in a very long time. There have always been new or tweaked models intended to improve forecast output. Things change, they get better, the science moves forward. But what we are seeing now is what I believe to be a legitimate disruption. AI, machine learning, and more efficient computer power are leading to a new wave of models, new ways of developing models, and a turnaround time on these new tools that’s lightning fast compared to history. The European AIFS model is barely 18 months old, and it’s already become an absolutely essential tool in the toolkit. Every few weeks a company like NVIDIA or Google or a smaller firm comes forward and announces some breakthrough they’ve made in forecasting using AI and machine learning. Of course, science by press release tells us nothing useful. But as some of this stuff gets integrated and made available to forecasters, it seems clear that the hype has some legitimacy.
Snowfall analysis (interpolated) from southern Minnesota last week. Note the patch of 8 to 12 inches south and southwest of Minneapolis. (NWS Twin Cities)
So what does this have to do with Minnesota? Well, I wanted to walk through the anatomy of a fairly minor forecast “bust” of sorts that occurred in Minnesota last week. I’m not going to throw anyone under the proverbial bus here; the NWS and others did a fine job overall messaging how this system would impact the region, and for the most part that’s what happened. But there were some surprises in how this unfolded, which were fairly small in terms of mathematical error or impacts but may have led to the perception of a fairly meaningful forecast bust.
Last Thursday, a storm system passing quickly through the state was expected to produce a widespread accumulating snow, which it did. The general thinking was that the highest totals would be north of I-94, which runs from Fargo through Alexandria (a favorite place of this author’s) and St. Cloud into the Twin Cities. There had been signs this was coming several days in advance. Last Monday, the NWS in the Twin Cities wrote this in their forecast discussion.
The general model consensus this morning has this swath setting up along & north of Interstate 94, but a few solutions do displace it totally to the south across southwest Minnesota & northern Iowa. So in summary, confidence continues to be very high in this system developing and for at least these Winter Weather Advisory-level snowfall amounts to occur, but is still low to medium on where the heaviest amounts are most likely across Minnesota & Wisconsin.
On Tuesday, their forecast discussion had not budged much at all, and the models had basically gotten in line with the idea of the highest precipitation totals along and north of I-94.
Models over the last 12 hours have trended slightly farther south, with the consensus track now placing the highest chances for snow along the Interstate 94 corridor. Still, chances still look good to expect 3-6″ of snow along and north of the Interstate 94 corridor of central MN & western WI, with amounts tapering off to around 1″ across southern MN.
There was not a whole lot of change in tone on Wednesday either, other than the potential that a dry slot may cut down totals a bit further in southern Minnesota with some risk of getting into the Twin Cities. But in general, the consensus was for a 3-6″ snowfall in Minneapolis, with lesser amounts to the south. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center’s probability map of 4 inches or more of snow from that Wednesday showed about a 70 percent (high) chance of it occurring, and the geographically astute will notice it was very much along or north of I-94.
NWS WPC probability of 4″ or more of snow last Thursday, issued on Wednesday afternoon. (NOAA WPC)
If you look at their forecast of where the low pressure system itself would track, you would see it going across southwest Minnesota and into northeast Iowa.
Wednesday afternoon’s forecast of the low pressure track in the Upper Midwest. (NOAA WPC)
The colors indicate ensemble track clusters, while the solid black line and L’s indicates the WPC preferred track forecast. Putting this all together, the NWS issued this snowfall forecast below on Wednesday afternoon.
NWS Twin Cities snow forecast on Wednesday evening for last Thursday’s snow. (NWS Twin Cities)
If you looked at this and lived in Mankato or Faribault, you expected just a few inches of snow. Faribault would actually end up closer to 8 inches of snow. Thursday’s forecast update did correctly nudge totals up there a bit.
Thursday morning’s updated snow forecast for Minnesota. (NWS Twin Cities)
When all was said and done, as you can see near the top of the post, the heaviest snows actually fell along and south of I-94, not north of I-94. So why did this happen, and did any models catch this?
Well, first off, the models did pretty well with the storm track forecast. As shown by the WPC above, the low pressure system tracked into northeast Iowa and across northern Illinois as expected. No surprises there.
Let’s take a look at the forecast precipitation from the models versus what verified. These are from 6z runs on Wednesday, meaning this would have been the newest likely data you’d have at your disposal making a forecast on Wednesday, early to mid-morning. I have included the ECMWF classic operational model, the ECMWF AIFS model, and the HRRR model, our higher resolution short-range model, as well as a verification based on radar estimates. Click to enlarge it.
Clockwise from top: Verified precipitation totals based on radar observations, the ECMWF operational model forecast, the ECMWF AIFS model forecast, and the HRRR model forecast. (NOAA MRMS, Pivotal Weather, StormVista Weather Models)
What’s up here? The Euro operational, which is generally anticipated to be the best in these scenarios had the corridor of highest precip totals right along I-94. The HRRR model was displaced way north of I-94. The AIFS model had the highest totals south and west of Minneapolis. The AIFS was actually quite consistent with that story. The ECMWF operational model had wobbled north with the highest totals on Wednesday before correcting back southward prior to the onset of the event on Thursday, with Wednesday evening’s model runs basically right in line with the AIFS model.
One of the things that continues to fascinate me about the AIFS model is that it often locks in on a solution with respect to a storm track and stay fixated on that. Let’s look at the 10 runs up to Thursday afternoon’s low placement. The ECMWF operational model had a couple issues. It was too far south early on, then corrected about 3 tiers of counties too far north before eventually settling back closer to the Iowa/Minnesota state line.
The European model forecast of low pressure position for the 10 runs leading into 18z (12PM CT) on Thursday. (Tropical Tidbits)
By no means would this be considered a “bad” forecast. You’re talking about a really well done forecast overall. Interestingly, if we look at the AIFS model, there was a lot less bouncing around that occurred. The forecast position of the low stayed basically within the upper 2 to 3 tiers of counties in Iowa.
The AIFS model forecast of low pressure for the 10 runs leading into 18z (12 PM CT) on Thursday (Tropical Tidbits)
Generally speaking, the models seemed to do well with this system, but overall, it gets challenging in storms like this. If the exact track shifts 20-30 miles, you can take the best vertical velocity (or “lift,” rising air) in whatever direction that shift is in. I suspect that despite having a good forecast at a high level, the European operational model’s tendency to bounce around a bit possibly negatively impacted the forecast that had the higher totals generally near and north of Minneapolis as opposed to between Minneapolis and Mankato.
What is impressive to me is the continued performance of the AIFS model. It remains extremely imperfect from a specifics standpoint. In other words, because of how it runs, it’s usually unable to capture fine-scale features like precipitation maxes in major events, peak low pressure in a large hurricane, etc. But as a forecaster, I don’t need it to do that for me. What I need is generally accuracy, and then I can rely on other model data to fill in the gaps. In this instance, the AIFS was rather consistently showing the highest precipitation totals south of I-94, whereas its counterparts either flailed around a bit or didn’t catch on til the end. Even some of the highest resolution modeling we have to handle situations like this took until 12 hours or less before the system hit to adjust these totals farther to the south.
Anyway, to me this is another case where AI modeling could give you an edge. The challenge is feeling confident enough to buy in.
LAS VEGAS—Stressing how much it meant to Mrs. Claus’ sister to be included for the first time in the family business, Santa Claus confirmed Monday that as their present this year, all children would be receiving one of the bags of glitter labeled “fairy dust” that his sister-in-law sells on Etsy. “We’re excited that on Christmas morning good little boys and girls all over the world will reach into their stockings and find a hand-embroidered pouch filled with pure holiday magic,” Santa said of the bags that contain approximately 1.5 ounces of glitter and sell for $29.99 plus shipping on the e-commerce site. “While this may not be what they asked for in the letters they sent me at the North Pole, children on Santa’s ‘nice’ list surely know the importance of being thankful for what they are given! They should remember to be polite too, because Mrs. Claus says her sister has been going through a hard time lately and could really use our support. Ho, ho, ho!” Santa went on to state that Christmas would come a little late this year, as his sister-in-law needed more time to make enough bags for all the children on Santa’s route, having completed only 20 so far.
dandori time🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱 I played pikmin 4 while making this vid. This is a showcase of the new abilities of the Minecraft AI agents: They can talk to each other! This new communication system allows them to talk and share knowledge, as well as coordinate actions and collaborate towards goals. There are also two new models, grok from twitter/xai, and qwen from alibaba cloud. Watch them fight, talk, coordinate, cooperate, share, spread, and build some dumb crap.
Timestamps (0:00) They can Talk! (1:37) Working Together (7:44) Apes Together Strong (14:20) Apes Together Stupid (18:20) We can make a religion out of this (23:21) Build a Community
