#CowboyWho

Headlines

• Weather forecasts verified exceptionally well with the ongoing Mid-South flooding.
• Numerous rivers are experiencing or soon will experience major flooding as all this feeds into the larger Ohio/Mississippi Basin.
• A much quieter week is expected this week.
• Next week may be a good bit stormier, however.

Exceptional flooding, exceptional forecasting

Now that it’s over, we can say that last week and weekend’s rainstorm sadly lived up to the expectations set days before. Take a look at the map comparison below. Use the slider to toggle between the rainfall forecast issued on Monday and the observed rainfall based on MRMS analysis.

Is this a perfect rainfall forecast? No, but my goodness it’s pretty darn close. The Weather Prediction Center, which is an arm of NOAA issues these larger scale precipitation forecasts daily. I reference these forecasts regular in my day job and for our readers both in Houston and elsewhere. They’re valuable. But they have exceptional utility ahead of major events such as this flood in the Mid-South. The folks at the WPC, much like those at other national centers under NOAA’s umbrella are the absolute best of the best in our field when it comes to marrying forecasts with historical analysis and numerical prediction models. As a public service, I’ll remind you that the budget cuts currently being proposed to NOAA will cost more in both lives and property in the long run than they’ll save in the short run.

All that said, this forecast was exceptional, but so were the impacts. Here is a look at the wide swath of double-digit rainfall totals seen through this event.

Many rivers in western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, or southern Illinois will be at their highest levels since 2018; in some cases on the White River in Indiana, it will likely be their highest levels since 2005 or 2008 floods. A few spots on the Kentucky River will actually set new records from this event.

In Frankfort, the state capital, a record from 1978 is threatened from the Kentucky.

Very important correction! I unintentionally processed the rain obs before yesterday's data had come in. The real numbers are substantially more extreme. What a wild event. https://t.co/limZAFSMAu pic.twitter.com/qVxJ0txo6j

— Jacob Feuerstein (@Jacob_Feuer) April 6, 2025

Those recurrence intervals are pretty amazing from southwest Tennessee through central Kentucky. For Memphis, this was the 2nd wettest four-day stretch on record, just falling about an inch shy of a June 1877 flood event there. Six flash flood emergencies were issued for the event across Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri.

Dozens of river gauge locations are expected to experience major flooding. All this water is going to flow into the Mississippi River eventually, and depending on where you are on the river, the forecast crests right now are the highest since somewhere between 2011 and 2020.

This one will go down in the record books with some of the bigger Mid-South floods.

Quiet week for the most part

Fortunately, the forecast this week there looks fairly calm with some rain later in the week, likely at manageable levels. Elsewhere across the country, we get to still discuss winter. Cooler temps will allow for some locally heavy snowfall from Ontario, across southern Quebec and into interior northern Maine, where as much as 4 to 8 inches could fall tomorrow.

Otherwise, the late week storm system mentioned above may allow for a return to some fire weather conditions in the southern Plains. Unlike in March, however, quite a few areas have seen some decent precipitation recently. So hopefully that puts a bit of a lid on severe fire weather concerns for the Plains.

Back at it next week?

I think the next significant weather item to watch will be a chance for multiple days of severe weather next week in the southern Plains. Exactly what that looks like or how it unfolds is TBD, but there are definitely signs in the models that after a quiet-ish week this week, we pick up the pace again next week.

I’m going to aim for a couple more posts this week. One will discuss the hurricane outlook issued by Colorado State. I may try to get another one later in the week on water issues and low snowpack in the interior West. We’ll see how this week goes!

Going, going, gone?

I want to leave you with a couple fun links today. As baseball season ramps, up, there are two new ballparks in play this year with the A’s in Sacramento and the Rays playing at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Over at Fangraphs, Michael Rosen did a two-part look at the weather effects in the new ballparks. Both have interesting quirks. Sacramento’s field will have some of the lowest humidity of any ballpark in the league. Tampa will have some fascinating winds which may make Rays games pretty fun to watch. Anecdotally, I did watch parts of some Rays games during Opening Week, and there were some interesting dynamics in play on fly balls. I encourage you to check those links out!

In brief: The word for the next week is tranquil, and there’s just not much to be concerned about as Houston enjoys one of its nicest periods of weather for the year. Winds will finally die down, and humidity should remain low through most of the weekend. Temperatures will, for the most part, be mild.

About those winds

The first week of April has been rather windy. First, we experienced robust onshore winds in response to an inland low pressure system. Then, beginning Saturday, winds turned sharply northward in response to the passage of a front. During the first six days of this month, the average wind speed has exceeded 15 mph, which is about 50 percent higher than normal during April. Every day so far this month has had a wind gust of at least 30 mph, and maximum gusts have exceeded 40 mph on several days.

There has been one benefit of this, however. It has shaken much of the tree pollen, particularly from oaks, down to the ground. We are therefore rapidly nearing the end of tree pollen season. In any case, winds should now die down as Houston’s weather turns more tranquil, and it is possible that we won’t experience a day this week with a gust of 30 mph or higher.

Monday

Temperatures have bottomed out in the mid- to upper 40s this morning, and it feels rather chilly outside. However, we’re going to see plenty of sunshine today and, indeed, for the rest of this week and that will help warm things up. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-60s today with very dry air in place. Winds will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. We will likely experience one more night in the 40s tonight, so if you like cold weather this is a night to really soak it all up.

Tuesday

We’re going to be warmer, with highs in the mid-70s, and very light winds. This is likely to be one of the 10 finest days of the year, weather-wise, in Houston. Skies will be sunny, with low humidity. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the low- to mid-50s. Seriously, I challenge you to find something to complain about (the weather, at least!) Be sure and tell any out-of-town visitors that this is what it’s always like in Houston.

Wednesday

More sunshine. We’ll continue our warming trend with daytime temperatures of around 80 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will fall to around 60 degrees. This really should be another splendid day with reasonably low humidity.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The rest of the week and into the weekend should continue to bring mostly sunny skies. Daytime temperatures will be in the vicinity of 80 to 85 degrees, with nights in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak front should arrive on Thursday night or Friday to blunt rising humidity levels, so our air should remain somewhat dry through the weekend. Honestly, there are just zero weather concerns this week at all.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, in the 80s and with more humid nights. Our overall rain chances appear to be quite low through at least the middle of next week. We have not seen our last front of the season, but one seems unlikely to push through Houston until at least the weekend of April 20 or so. Speaking of April 20, I don’t yet have a good read on weather conditions for Easter Sunday in Houston.

Sources familiar with an internal probe said a chain of errors led to the accidental leak of a military operation.

After learning about how their plastic foam lunch trays were not only harming the environment but also themselves, three students jumped into action and started gathering their classmates' signatures. The petition caught the attention of HISD Superintendent Mike Miles.

The Texas Legislature is considering bills that transit officials warn could hamper public transportation in the Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth regions.

#RoninWarriors

This post was written by Alison Green and published on Ask a Manager.

It’s five answers to five questions. Here we go…

1. My boss was upset I wanted to leave when our A/C failed

Last year, my coworker spent the majority of an eight-hour Saturday shift in a public building with no operable bathroom. She reported a sewage backup to our boss and the answering service of the facilities department responsible for maintaining the toilets, but her calls for help went unanswered.

This was on my mind last Saturday, when our building’s A/C failed. I put in the same calls, but the only response I got was my boss asking me to let her know if it gets any hotter. A little before noon, I texted back: “It’s hotter! If help is on the way, let me know. Because otherwise, I am not going to come back from my lunch break. It’s just too hot to finish out my shift.”

My boss called back and told me that if I did not come back from lunch, others would almost certainly follow until there would not be enough staff to keep the building open. And also, she could not even start the approval process to close the building until the temperature rose another five degrees, a temperature that represents an OSHA violation. So I had to come back from lunch to finish my shift.

I appreciate the tough position she is in, and I get that the most expedient way for her to do her job is to demand that I do mine. But my job involves air conditioning! And the last time a similar situation happened, she left my coworker stranded! As far as I know, she did not even try to summon help or start the building failure approval process even though the situation then was much more dire.

In the end, a repairman did arrive and cool us down so I was able to happily finish my shift. But my boss is very unhappy because I threatened to leave. Was there a better way for me to handle this?

It’s hard to know without knowing what kind of temperatures we’re talking about. OSHA doesn’t require specific temperatures, but they do recommend 68-76° F — so if your boss was saying she couldn’t close the building until it got to 77° … well, that doesn’t seem that outrageous (in fact, 78° is supposedly the best eco-friendly thermostat setpoint in the summer). That said, temperature is very personal (my husband might expire at that temperature) and if you’re too hot to comfortably work, you’re too hot to comfortably work, and explaining that wasn’t out of line.

Ultimately I think it really depends on (a) how much of your concern was based on knowing no one had been responsive to your coworker’s bathroom situation last year and worrying this would be the same, versus (b) your actual temperature/level of discomfort. If your concern was the former rather than the latter, telling your boss that you didn’t plan to come back from lunch based on something you feared might happen but hadn’t actually happened yet was overkill … although in that case it would have been fine to say, “There’s a point where it won’t be feasible for people to stay and work, so if that happens we’ll need to leave early.”

But either way, your boss being “very unhappy” over this is a bit much.

2. Does board member’s comment mean I’m about to get a big raise?

I work in a nonprofit where the staff and the board really get along and generally have friendly relationships. Tonight, I ran into a member of the executive committee at my nephew’s track meet. She’s a realtor by trade, and while we were chatting, she said, “So, you’ve been in this city for a while, have you thought about buying a house?” I laughed and basically said, “You know what my salary is. What are you on and can I have some?” Her response was something cryptic about waiting for review season.

Now, my boss had recently mentioned something about moving me from an associate in my department to potentially leading a small team, which I assumed would come with a pay bump, but definitely not one that moves me from “my car is 15 years old and I’m dreading the day it bites it” territory to “able to afford a house” territory.

On one hand, this is great news. On the other, this was a cryptic suggestion about a number that is probably not official yet, and I have no idea if what I’m even imagining she means is what she actually means (like most cities, it costs a lot less to get a house in some parts than others). So my question is, how do I not get too attached to this idea? I’m afraid that she’s set my hopes too high and my new number won’t measure up. Or maybe things change and I don’t get the promotion after all. Before this conversation, I was perfectly happy at the salary I’m at for the job that I do in the city where I live. Now I’m just anxious. Please help!

Put it out of your head entirely. There’s a decent chance that she was speaking to you as a real estate agent rather than a board member, and real estate agents like to encourage people to buy property. “Wait until review season” does not necessarily mean “you are about to get an enormous pay bump that will put buying a house within reach.” It could just mean “maybe you’ll get a raise, but I have no idea whether that will change anything meaningful about your ability to buy property” (as she doesn’t know your expenses, whether you have a partner whose income will go toward a house too, etc.) … or it could be a semi-uncomfortable “yeah, our salaries are low, hopefully you’ll get a bump soon” … or it could mean nothing at all and just be a pleasant nicety with no meaning attached to it. Frankly, she shouldn’t be intimating anything about any potential raise outside of official channels, and there’s a good chance that she didn’t mean to for you to take her remark as seriously as you did (even though it’s understandable that you did!).

That could all turn out to be wrong, of course. Maybe you’re about to get a huge raise! But you’re much better off attributing no meaning to her comment, and then letting it be a happy surprise if that does happen.

3. When a beloved figure is laid off, is fan outcry helpful or hurtful?

I’m hoping to hear your take on a situation from my doll collecting hobby. Mattel and Barbie are some of the biggest names in this space, and in a recent round of Mattel layoffs, a beloved Barbie doll designer named Bill Greening was included. The community reaction was immediate — people were sharing corporate contact information, people declaring on social media they wouldn’t add to their collection unless he was reinstated, etc. There’s even a change.org petition to get him rehired with 2,600 signatures.

I know that fan-related businesses come with a whole series of unique challenges, but collector dolls are a relatively small piece of Mattel’s business. Obviously there’s a lot going on over there the community isn’t privy to — there were over 100 employees laid off, but Bill is the one with the active community relationships that have rallied in support. In your opinion, is this community outrage likely to be more helpful or hurtful for Greening’s future employment opportunities, either with Mattel or with another toy company? If this is hurtful, can you think of positive ways for the community to support him?

I don’t know enough about the situation to comment with any nuance, but in general this kind of thing doesn’t tend to hurt people’s future ability to get hired and can sometimes help, by demonstrating community enthusiasm for the person and creating an opening for another company to capitalize on that fan base. It’s unlikely that the original employer will reinstate him based on the outrage (and presumably they were aware of his fan base before deciding to lay him off) but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either. (Although if you were Bill, would you go back if they offered? If they did offer, though, he’d be in a good position to try to negotiate something extra out of it.)

4. I’m applying for a job at my husband’s company — when should I mention it?

I received an interview request today for a position I’m very interested in — at my husband’s employer. He’s been there going on 13 years, and one of the reasons I applied for the role in the first place is the positive experience he’s had as an employee there.

The position I applied for is completely unrelated to what he does, and we wouldn’t even be working in the same office building (or in the same town, for that matter — the company has a pretty substantial presence in our area). But my home address is on my resume, and one of the first things that pops up when you Google either of our names is our wedding announcement.

Do I mention anything during the initial interview? I’m not trying to hide anything from the interviewer, but it also doesn’t feel like it would be super helpful to volunteer information about my spouse when it might not be necessary. Complicating things slightly is the fact that the role I’m applying for is within HR.

If the job wasn’t in HR, I’d say to bring it up at the offer stage — as a sort of covering-your-bases FYI, so that it doesn’t look weird that you never mentioned it and in case they have any policies that would make that a problem (which is unlikely given the very separate jobs, but it’s better to find out before accepting if they do).

But with the job being in HR, you should mention it earlier, since being in HR increases the chances that it might be something they wouldn’t allow. Given that, I’d mention it in the first interview so that you don’t waste your time if it’s a no-go, framed as, “I wanted to mention my spouse works in the X division. I don’t foresee that being an issue for us, but since the job is in HR, I want to flag it now in case that would pose any concerns for you.”

5. “Couldn’t care less” vs. “could care less”

This isn’t an office question but more of a clarification. I have several times noticed letter writers using the phrase “could care less.” I was under the impression it should be “couldn’t care less” because that announces that I am at the lowest level of caring. By saying somebody “could care less,” it means they are not quite at rock bottom, but I don’t think that is the message the writer is trying to convey. Am I wrong?

You are correct; the expression is properly “couldn’t care less,” for the reason you said. However, the scone is out of the barn on that one; “could care less” has been used for so long that in practice they’ve become interchangeable. (Here is Merriam-Webster agreeing with me.)

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No else is allowed to exist in the background while you spend quality time with one (1) of your Persona Pals. They would probably all get too jealous of your direct attention.

openssh

postman fish

Fish gives Postman fish a letter. Postman fish travels through a dangerous evil forest. Postman fish reaches a computer. Postman fish checks Fish's letter. It says "ls" and a key is attached. Postman fish types ls on the computer. It prints the output of the command. Postman fish copies the output of the command and travels back to Fish. Postman fish hands Fish the output of "ls" in a neat envelope with a fish sticker.

https://analognowhere.com/_/otcaux

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David Remnick, in a fine short piece for The New Yorker on Signalgate:

This is an Administration that does not have to slip on a Signal banana peel to reveal its deepest-held prejudices and its painful incapacities. You get the sense that we would learn little if we were privy to a twenty-four-hour-a-day live stream of its every private utterance. Part of what was so appalling about Trump and Vance’s recent meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky was not just their penchant for channelling the world view and negotiating points of Vladimir Putin but their comfort in expressing them, barking them, at the Ukrainian President in front of reporters in the Oval Office.

Stupidity and ignorance as a governing style. That’s it. They are exactly who they claim they are, and in private speak how they do in public. There is no secret plan.

These idiots do not believe polluting the atmosphere with carbon emissions has caused calamitous damage to our climate, despite the fact that experts, decades ago, almost universally predicted it would. Few issues in science had as much expert consensus.

These idiots think vaccines — one of the great breakthroughs in the history of science and medicine — are a bigger health risk than the diseases they immunize against. Now there are unvaccinated American kids dying from measles, a disease that was effectively wiped out in the modern world by the time I was born.

These idiots think the universe is only 6,000 years old.

Now they’re bringing the same sort of idiocy, unbound by critical thinking, history, or anything recognized as economic expertise, to trade policy.

You get a tariff. And you get a tariff. And you. And you. Everybody gets a tariff. But not the same for every type of consumer good. For the Washington Post, Luis Melgar, Rachel Lerman, and Szu Yu Chen show the percentages of imported value by category.

That means products that the United States commonly gets from Vietnam, such as clothing and shoes, would be subject to a new 46 percent tax, whereas goods from Colombia, like flowers, would see a lower new 10 percent levy. Imports from Mexico, such as avocados, will have no new tax. In any case, shopping is about to get more expensive for Americans.

It looks like camping gear, stereo equipment, cookware, and toys are going to get hit the hardest, but at least numismatic (?) coins won’t get taxed as hard.

Tags: prices, tariff, Washington Post

Reader, they sold those medals immediately.

The post We probably won’t sell them! appeared first on Bad Machinery.

About 500 Texans, mostly young unvaccinated children, have contracted the disease. The U.S. health secretary was in West Texas to visit the family.

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Sometimes the votey panel is funnier than the comic, and it makes me cry.

Today's News:

My sincere thanks to The Ole Independence Hall Hooligans for sponsoring this past week at DF to promote democracy. That’s it. A real sponsorship, real money, raised by a group of readers who simply wanted the ad space on DF to promote, as they described it, “the enduring and aspirational project that is democracy.”

In their sponsored RSS entry to start the week, they quoted the preamble to the US Constitution. I’ll go a decade earlier, and quote from the Declaration of Independence:

The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good. [...]

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. [...]

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

Sounds like someone in the news today (and yesterday, and alas, surely again tomorrow). There is no greater threat to democracy itself than a delusional mad king, whether he wears a crown or a ridiculous ugly red cap. Take action and make your voice heard now — democracy in action is democracy’s only defense.

#Rowen #RoninWarriors

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who had protected legal status in the US, was deported last month to an El Salvadoran prison.

OTTAWA – After being found guilty of criminal mischief, “Freedom Convoy” organizers Chris Barber and Tamara Lich insist they are not worried about what kind of sentence they’ll face as they’re sure U.S. President Donald Trump will pardon them any day now. “The totally woke and Liberal judge didn’t even consider the fact that honking […]

The post Convicted “Freedom Convoy” organizers hoping Trump will pardon them appeared first on The Beaverton.

It unveiled the console on Wednesday just hours before the president announced a wave of global tariffs.

There were no injuries reported and the driver was able to exit the truck before the collision in Louisiana.

Thousands of protesters gathered for the most visible opposition movement of Trump's second term.

In brief: Showers and storms will cross the Houston area through mid-afternoon, with some possibly on the stronger or even severe side. Hail and gusty winds are the main concerns. It will turn sharply cooler this evening with gradual clearing tomorrow.

Things are quiet around Houston this morning, with just a few showers and a couple rumbles of thunder up near Huntsville. Otherwise, we have just a broken line of showers and embedded thunder on a line between about College Station and Columbus to our west.

Over the next couple hours, this “line” will move eastward, probably arriving in the Houston area itself around 12 to 2 PM. As the storms come east, the storms will likely strengthen some. That’s when we will see some heavier downpours, a little more lightning, and perhaps some 40 mph wind gusts. One or two storms could become severe with large hail, more damaging-type winds (60 mph) or even a very isolated tornado (mainly east of Houston). Those severe storms look to be the exception rather than the rule this afternoon, but we’ll continue to monitor things. We are in a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk northeast of Houston today for severe weather.

In addition to keeping an eye to the sky, keep an eye on the thermometer, especially this evening. Temperatures will peak in the 80s early this afternoon before dropping back into the 60s this evening and 50s before midnight. Out will be the humidity, in will be the light jacket. There will also likely be periodic showers this evening, possibly even a rumble of thunder or two. Things gradually clear out Sunday.

Just keep an eye on the weather today, but aside from one or two isolated severe storms, we do not anticipate things getting out of control.

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All natural, in the sense of not having been made in a particle accelerator.

Today's News:

Epic CEO Tim Sweeney, yesterday:

Thanks to Microsoft for 50 years of being awesome to developers! Some years the software was great. Some years the software sucked. Every year the company and its ecosystem has stood with and supported developers.

I pity the man who doesn’t have enough fingers to count the number of game stores available on Xbox.

Terrific photos and summary coverage from The Guardian. Additional coverage from The New York Times, Washington Post, and CNN. Update: The Atlantic has a great collection of photos from dozens of cities.

There’s something so bizarrely asymmetrical about Trump’s political support. We saw large scale protests like today’s starting in 2017 too, and in this 2.0 administration, they’re only going to get bigger. Today’s protests were coast-to-coast, in cities large and small. Hundreds of thousands — correction, millions — of people. Huge crowd in Philadelphia. Over 100,000 in Boston. But there were never any protests at all against the Biden administration. Trump’s support has been just wide enough to win, twice, but it’s so thin. His first inauguration was so conspicuously sparsely attended they held the second one indoors. Support for democracy runs deep.

#Ryo #RoninWarriors

Susan Glasser, writing for The New Yorker, “Donald Trump’s Ego Melts the Global Economy”:

In this new political moment of the unthinkable made manifest, the sheer power rush for Trump should also not be underestimated. Imagine his joy as he sat down to sign an executive order decreeing the new tariffs on the basis of sweeping powers he may or may not legally possess to declare a “national economic emergency” — here was Trump transforming the world with a single flourish of his Sharpie pen. “It’s such an honor to be finally able to do this,” he said. At what other moment in modern times has a single man wielded so much unaccountable power over such a large swath of the world economy? There are whole businesses devoted to risk analysis for corporations; this is a situation in which Trump himself is the risk and the crisis being analyzed is one that he created. Talk about an ego trip.

Glasser links to Garry Kasparov, on X, responding to Wall Street’s collective surprise that Trump did what he’s been saying he would do re: tariff policy:

As I’ve said for years about Putin, and which applies to other autocratic personalities like Trump: “Dictators always lie about what they’ve done, but are often quite plain about what they want to do.” “Trump would never...” is the new “Putin would never...”

Such people do and take whatever they can, unless they are stopped. That they don’t always succeed does not mean they were not sincere in their ambitions and won’t keep trying to fulfill them. Trump has only been emboldened by the sycophantic GOP this time around.

Even more apt, “Deep Throat” explaining the central truth of the Watergate scandal to Bob Woodward in the Alan-Pakula-directed / William-Goldman-written film adaptation of All the President’s Men:

“Forget the myths the media has created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.”