Pasadena fire officials are trying to rescue a man stuck in a palm tree.
The man was trimming the tree behind a residence in the 300 block of Adena Street when he got stuck, said Pasadena Fire Department spokeswoman Lisa Derderian.
Derderian didn't immediately have information about how the man got stuck but said at 4:40 p.
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Take a ride in Tesla's newest car, the 'best car ever made'
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The Model S P90D costs $140,000. It is also being called by many "the best car ever made". From its 17-inch touchscreen menu, to its startling acceleration thanks to "ludicrous mode", get a behind-the-wheel look at Tesla's newest car. (Jhaan Elker/The Washington Post)
The first thing I Googled from the driver's seat of this $142,000 Tesla Model S P90D was a plea: "turn off tesla."
A representative of Elon Musk's heavily hyped automaker had just patiently explained everything I would need to know about the all-electric sedan, including how to enjoy its 300 miles of battery-powered range and how to turn on the absurdly fast "Ludicrous" mode.
But as I pulled in front of my home inside one of the nation's most celebrated machines — a car that Consumer Reports gave its highest rating in history, 103 out of 100 — I realized I had forgotten one tiny detail: I didn't know how to turn the thing off.
The answer is, well, you parkit and walk away: A simple but uncomfortably alien gesture for anyone who has ever driven a car. And over a few confusing, exhilarating days with the Model S P90D, I realized just how much the future of driving will force us to relearn what we know about cars.
Tesla Motors, the United States' youngest car company, had agreed to let me keep its newest model for a long weekend, and I was intent on driving and thinking about the car as a normal American driver might: caring for its place in the actual family routine, not just how it would look in a showroom.
There was one big obstacle to that: The price. The car starts at $70,000, although this one was fully loaded — with perks such as a $35,000 90-kilowatt dual-motor upgrade — and cost about $142,200, which seemed more appropriate attached to a charming central Florida bungalow.
Why should anyone care about a car that expensive? Because no other machine better represents how much the American driving experience is poised to change. In the 18 years since the Toyota Prius was introduced, virtually all of the big automakers' electric and hybrid offerings, such as the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan Leaf, have been suburban dweeb mobiles, demanding sacrifices of style and still selling for far more than the traditional gas guzzler. The Model S is the best attempt at making an eco-friendly car that people get excited about.
***
Musk has long called the Model S the first step toward making electric cars ubiquitous. "Step one: expensive car, low volume. Step two: medium price, medium volume. Step three: low price, high volume," he said last month. The carmaker's next model, after its just-released Model X SUV, is the Model 3, a mass-market electric car set to sell for about $35,000 and start production in 2017.
Perhaps more important, other automakers are beginning to follow Tesla's lead. General Motors says it will start turning out its 200-plus-mile-range Chevy Bolt next year. It will cost about $30,000 after tax credits. Kelley Blue Book just celebrated the new Chevy Volt, Volkswagen e-Golf and even Toyota's hydrogen-powered Mirai as the best and most affordable of the eco-friendly fleet.
Super-low oil prices and increasingly efficient gas-powered cars have zapped some of the juice from electric cars, but the Model S is futuristic in another way: Its new "Autopilot" mode can steer, change lanes and keep the car driving at highway speeds with minimal human intervention, one of the first publicly available ways to get a taste of self-driving cars. That feature is rolling out this week to thousands of Model S drivers via an over-the-air update, another hallmark of the Tesla brand.
Of course, that all could go to waste if people never buy one. And even the smoothest electric car is only as good as the network that keeps it charged.
***
The Tesla Model S P90D is an all-electric car that broke the Consumer Reports rating system with a 103/100 rating. (Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post)
The new Model S can go from 0 to 60 mph in an absurd 2.8 seconds, with horsepower that rivals the Lamborghini Huracán and other supercars that only bad guys in James Bond movies drive. It feels impossibly fast. You lightly touch the pedal and suddenly you're flying at 90 mph. The first time I hit the pedal hard, I cursed.
You know all the little ways a car tells you it's accelerating: The growl of the engine, the resistance of the pedal, the rumble in the seats? There's none of that here. You press the pedal in "Ludicrous" mode — which replaces the previous model's "Insane" mode, and actually accelerates your body faster than if you were falling to Earth — and soundlessly, instantly teleport to hyperspeed.
That power will go woefully underused cruising suburban streets. But even at city speeds, it keeps the car feeling responsive, agile and light. When we're driving one night, my wife says, “Damn, no other car is going to feel good after this.”
Driving the Model S feels like driving an iPhone. The speedometer area just above the steering wheel is a screen: showing your music, turn-by-turn navigation, how you're using the battery. The dashboard between the two front seats is a screen: a 17-inch touchscreen the size of a sideways computer monitor, with maps, music, a Web browser, a back-up camera, your phone contacts and a calendar.
These screens handle everything, and you change the car's settings often by moving your fingers over a picture of the car itself: Slide down the moon roof, turn on the headlights, lower the suspension, heat the seats or steering wheel.The car is also loaded with sensors, cameras and radars that help keep it in its lane, stop before a crash and dodge speeding tickets; cameras watch for speed limit signs, which are projected onto a screen. It is baffling, cool and distracting, all at once.
Sensors in the car also show when objects get too close, estimating how many inches away they are (and beeping ever urgently the nearer they get). It's how you would design a car if you started from scratch today, and yet it demands you rewrite a lot of traditional driving rituals in your head. I kept reaching for a volume knob that didn't exist and looking back over my shoulder to reverse.
The car looks for updates over your home Wi-Fi network, can play Internet-radio stations such as Slacker over a crisp sound system that cranks "up to 11," and features voice controls you activate from a button on the steering wheel. Unlike when on my phone, I find myself actually talking to the computer. Saying "navigate home" or "play Beach House" alone in the car seems less embarrassing than, say, shouting at your iPhone to Google "tom hanks's age."
The Model S is roomy, comfortably seating five (or seven, with an optional backward-facing bench). You could easily fit a couple of baby seats, or cram in the haul of a big grocery-store shopping trip in the spacious trunk and "frunk," the under-the-hood front storage area where most cars keep the engine. (The electric motor that drives you is hidden beneath your seat.)
Yet the car still ends up feeling less like a family wagon and more like a sleek, minimal, vaguely Scandinavian bachelor pad. There are two (!?) cup holders, which is the ultimate first-world problem to complain about, until all the kids have soda in their laps.
The closest thing to a key is a little remote that looks like a tiny Model S — a toy for a toy — on which you can tap its back or sides to pop the trunk or unlock the doors. You can also totally ignore it: When the car senses your smart key coming closer, it flickers to life, unlocking the doors, pushing out the door handles (which recede when you walk away) and illuminating the screens. Push down on the brake pedal and the car is ready to drive.
The ease of it all can feel almost magical. I go out for a drive and an hour disappears. I stop at a light and there's nothing but silence, sun pouring through the big windshield. One morning before work, I open the door and the car's Internet-radio station is already playing one of my favorite songs. I wonder as I glide through traffic: Is this what people who buy $140,000 cars feel like all the time?
***
The speedometer area above the steering wheel. Each piece can be swapped out for music, navigation and other modules. (Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post)
The magic lasts a few hours. Owners of electric cars often charge their cars overnight in their garage, but I wanted to use one of Tesla's Superchargers, part of a national network of free charging stations that promise 80 percent of juice in about half an hour. Grab the nozzle, bring it to your car and the fuel door automatically swings open. Voila, free (Tesla-funded) power. Totally foolproof.
Except: When my wife and I get to the Supercharger, inside a mall parking garage in Bethesda, Md., the place is swamped. We drive instead to the nearest public charger, a small kiosk outside a SunTrust bank, where we delve into the still-rocky world of non-Supercharger electric charging: For $1 an hour, we watch as the battery sips on a trickle, about a mile every 2 or 3 minutes. Every one of these stations is different, in recharge time and cost, a confusing addition to the already-annoying dearth of places to charge. Imagine if every gas station served a different blend of fuel.
The Model S gets 300 miles on one charge, which leads the industry and is incredibly promising for the future of electric mobility. You forget all of that when your battery gets low. The problem of "range anxiety" in electric cars remains very real. When you're near E and there are no open stations around, you realize how much you take for granted the simple pleasure of having a gas station on every corner. You become obsessed with your battery percentage, like how I imagine teenagers feel about their iPhones. You imagine waiting for a tow truck in your fancy corpse car, like a $140,000 sucker.
My wife and I drove an hour north of D.C. to a lovely, pastoral stretch in rural Maryland between the small towns of Sunshine and Unity, and all I could think about was that maddening little progress bar on my dashboard, dwindling ever closer to extinction. I began to deeply sympathize with my electric brothers and sisters who get only 60 miles on a single charge. Are their lives always this full of dread?
Finally, we pull back into Bethesda and attempt another go at the Supercharger. Two men are charging their cars at the two main stalls, chatting, naturally, about Tesla, and I overhear one man say, "If you can't afford it, don't test-drive it. It'll ruin your life." We sneak unsubtle glances at their progress bars as we lean back on our car to wait.
Nationwide, there is one public charger for every 10 electric vehicles, and competition for them can grow heated: Stories of shouting matches and secret unpluggings of strangers' cars abound. It's the busy-laundromat problem for rich people, and for once I totally get it. When you are stranded with thirst and people are gulping happily at the water fountain, you can't help but feel spurned.
Soon, one of the men offers to leave early and let us plug in. I go to open the car and the handles have receded. I ask him how to push the handles out (click twice on the little toy remote's roof) and then he shows me the right way to close the "frunk" (softly, with two hands, instead of slamming). Then, silently, he drives away.
Charging up at a public station in Bethesda, $1 per hour. (Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post)
Tesla has long been a Rorschach test for investors. It has delivered fewer cars to buyers than it said it would; delayed for years the rollouts of cars such as the Model X, its heavily touted sport-utility vehicle; and set prices often far higher than expected. The company's stock has slumped 9 percent over the past year on worries that they're better at marketing than delivering.
And yet I find that the best representation of the Model S comes from two of the many people who were curious about the car during the weekend and who were both, coincidentally, D.C. police officers. One thought it was beautiful but said the charging infrastructure was still far too weak for electric cars to make sense. The other officer jokingly asked if he could be the valet.
That's the Model S P90D: the sleekest Band-Aid on a larger wound Tesla can't really control. It is a feat of automotive engineering (as the car people say), and yet it is still damaged by the same thing hurting every other dinky electric car: too few chargers in a gas-station world. The Superchargers go a long way toward correcting that, but they are spottily placed and in high demand.
The driver who dutifully charges every night may have no problems on a daily commute. But forgetting to charge or pushing for a longer trip can bring a level of anxiety the traditional driver may not be used to. A nationwide road trip is theoretically possible, but the driving public will want convenience, too.
I missed the car when I gave it away — the quiet of the drive, the smoothness of the suspension, the power and speed — but it also felt a bit refreshing to not have multiple screens in my line of sight. Electric cars are coming rapidly, perhaps for the good of the planet. But for now, I appreciate not having to worry about a progress bar.
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Inside a Tesla factory
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The assembly of Model S cars at a factory in Tilburg, Netherlands.
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The assembly of Model S cars at a factory in Tilburg, Netherlands.
Oct. 8, 2015 A worker positions a Tesla Model S during battery pack fitting at the factory. Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg
LONDON — In a recent episode of Showtime’s hit series “Homeland,” the former C.I.A. officer Carrie Mathison is escorted by a Hezbollah militant past a wall in a fictional Syrian refugee camp covered with Arabic graffiti.
LOL. Hollywood is so whore-ish. This definitely doesn't significantly hurt Hilary, but it does hurt her a bit. I don't follow Michael Bay at all, but I'm willing to assume that he's standard-issue Hollywood liberal . . . and more interested in the publicity (and money) of a "movie that hurts Hilary!" than in his own politics.
Action Film About Benghazi Attack May Be Irritant for Hillary Clinton
I enjoyed the movie. All these shots at it are . . . fair . . . and I still don't care.
Thank you to Coors Light for sponsoring this episode! ►► http://bit.ly/16Kiv36 What a trailer! What a lovely trailer! Strap in for the summer's only high-oct...
"Seriously, Mom, I really am just reading it for the articles."
With the Internet a cornucopia of pornography, Playboy’s raison d’être has vanished. Its website dropped nudity last year, and the age of its viewers dropped closer to the coveted millennial target.
THE Oregon Shakespeare Festival has decided that Shakespeare’s language is too difficult for today’s audiences to understand. It recently announced that over the next three years, it will commission 36 playwrights to translate all of Shakespeare’s plays into modern English.
Many in the theater community have known that this day was coming, though it doesn’t lessen the shock. The Oregon Shakespeare Festival has been one of the stars in the Shakespeare firmament since it was founded in 1935. While the festival’s organizers insist that they also remain committed to staging Shakespeare’s works in his own words, they have set a disturbing precedent. Other venues, including the Alabama Shakespeare Festival, the University of Utah and Orlando Shakespeare Theater, have already signed on to produce some of these translations.
However well intended, this experiment is likely to be a waste of money and talent, for it misdiagnoses the reason that Shakespeare’s plays can be hard for playgoers to follow. The problem is not the often knotty language; it’s that even the best directors and actors — British as well as American — too frequently offer up Shakespeare’s plays without themselves having a firm enough grasp of what his words mean.
Claims that Shakespeare’s language is unintelligible go back to his own day. His great rival, Ben Jonson, reportedly complained about “some bombast speeches of ‘Macbeth,’ which are not to be understood.” Jonson failed to see that Macbeth’s dense soliloquies were intentionally difficult; Shakespeare was capturing a feverish mind at work, tracing the turbulent arc of a character’s moral crisis. Even if audiences strain to understand exactly what Macbeth says, they grasp what Macbeth feels — but only if an actor knows what that character’s words mean.
Two years ago I witnessed a different kind of theatrical experiment, in which Shakespeare’s “Much Ado About Nothing,” in the original language, trimmed to 90 minutes, was performed before an audience largely unfamiliar with Shakespeare: inmates at Rikers Island. The performance was part of the Public Theater’s Mobile Shakespeare Unit initiative.
No inmates walked out on the performance, though they were free to do so. They were deeply engrossed, many at the edge of their seats, some crying out at various moments (much as Elizabethan audiences once did) and visibly moved by what they saw.
Did they understand every word? I doubt it. I’m not sure anybody other than Shakespeare, who invented quite a few words, ever has. But the inmates, like any other audience witnessing a good production, didn’t have to follow the play line for line, because the actors, and their director, knew what the words meant; they found in Shakespeare’s language the clues to the personalities of the characters.
Every weekday, get thought-provoking commentary from Op-Ed columnists, The Times editorial board and contributing writers from around the world.
I’ve had a chance to look over a prototype translation of “Timon of Athens” that the Oregon Shakespeare Festival has been sharing at workshops and readings for the past five years. While the work of an accomplished playwright, it is a hodgepodge, neither Elizabethan nor contemporary, and makes for dismal reading.
This article is worth reading, but it's specific thesis is not actually why I'm sharing this.
Read the Trump quotes a sec. Ignore the issue they address, and his policy position (or lack thereof) on it. Just read it.
Doesn't Trump mangle the English language almost as badly as Sarah Palin does, and in some of the same sorts of really weird and incoherent ways?
It just occurred to me that everyone who is blasting Trump (myself included) seems to be (and please correct me if I'm wrong) mostly focusing on Trump as egotistical asshole.
Yet he actually sounds a lot more like Palin that I'd previously realized. But in the popular consciousness, Trump is bad because he's an arrogant egotist, whereas Palin is just dumb.
To be fair, Palin is pretty fuckin' dumb, and Trump is pretty fuckin' egotistical, but I wonder if they're not actually more similar to each other than we realize, and there's a certain background sexism operating in all of us.
Thoughts?
Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images
On Friday, during an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Donald Trump came very close to making an extremely good point about mass shootings. Asked what he would do to prevent future mass shootings as president, Trump immediately walled off the possibility of new gun laws: "First of all, you have very strong laws on the books." But having done that, he found himself with a dilemma. He tried to blame shootings on "mental illness" — the standard line gun rights supporters use in response to gun control supporters who blame shootings on guns. But that didn't actually lead him to any proposals for something that could be done. The result was (at least by Trumpian standards) a fairly nuanced point:
you know, oftentimes this happens and the neighborhood’s just, you know, we sort of saw that about him, it really looked like he could be a problem’ but it’s often hard to put someone in an institution for the rest of their lives based on the fact that he looks like he could be a problem.
There's a real problem here. It is obviously true that many of the individuals who have committed recent mass shootings have had mental or behavioral health issues. But mental illness doesn't predict violence in the least — people with mental illness are more likely to be victims of violence than perpetrators of it.
The prospect of targeting and stigmatizing people with mental health issues as a group, in reaction to mass shootings, is morally abhorrent. But Jesse Singal, of the Science of Us blog at New York magazine, has written an extremely good piece making a good-faith effort at working through it empirically. He sets out to figure out whether there are any mental or behavioral factors that predict who's disposed to commit mass shootings, as a way to figure out whether there's any effective policy response that focuses on controlling people rather than guns.
The answer, he finds, is no. Here's the key point from Columbia psychiatrist Dr. Paul Appelbaum, which sounds, in a weird way, like Trump's point on Morning Joe:
any attempt to predict who is most likely to commit a mass shooting — and therefore prevent it — runs up against the fact that these events are extremely rare, and as a result have only the broadest, least useful risk factors associated with them. [...]
The risk factors that are linked to these events — basically, being an angry young man — are so widespread in the population, he explained, and so weakly predictive of an individual actually committing a mass shooting as to be practically useless. "The answer is yes, at least of the most highly publicized, most fear-inducing cases of stranger shootings, by and large they are angry young men," said Appelbaum. "But that doesn’t get you very far, because there are a lot of angry young men who are angry for all kinds of reasons, and unless one wants to lock them all up or put them all under 24-hour surveillance, it’s really impossible to build on a description that general to come up with effective preventative approaches."
As a result, says Appelbaum, he's not talking about the "causes of violence" as a psychiatrist anymore. As Singal writes:
Instead, he’d prepared a one-size-fits-all statement for the media that concluded, "If you tell me that there’s nothing we can do about guns, I’d say then we’re done. We’ve conceded that we are willing to tolerate periodic slaughters of the innocent. There’s nothing more to say.’"
In other words, just because there's no answer to "how can we predict who will commit mass shootings?" doesn't mean there's no answer to "how can we prevent mass shootings?" To Appelbaum, there is a clear answer to the second — gun control — so it doesn't matter, from a policy perspective, whether there is an answer to the first.
But Trump, whose base is ferociously opposed to gun control, doesn't have that option. As a result, he's left with the terrible dilemma: monstrously overbroad mass institutionalization, or inaction. And while he started the Morning Joe interview reasonably conflicted between the two, when the interviewer asked him, "So is your opinion that some people are going to slip through the cracks?" Trump embraced that option enthusiastically:
You know, it’s not politically correct to say that, but you’re going to have difficulty, and that would be for the next million years you’re going to have difficulty. People are going to slip through the cracks and even if you did great mental health programs, people are going to slip through the cracks! [...] you are going to have difficulties. You’re going to have difficulties with many different things, not just this. And that’s the way the world works. And by the way, that’s the way the world always has worked.
That sounds less like an actual answer than like that Onion headline: "'No Way to Prevent This,' Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens." But it's very revealing. If your only option is to try to regulate people and predict what they will do, Trump is right: There really is no way to prevent mass shootings. Where one might disagree with him is whether more strictly regulating people is really easier or more acceptable than more strictly regulating guns.
The "penetrate" at the end makes this one too good to be true. I call bullshit. Made up, as many of these (but not as many as we'd like) probably are.
At the Battle of Hastings, King Harold’s Army, for the most part, fought on foot using the ancient technique of making the soldiers into phalluses which were too hard for the Normans to penetrate.
LOS ANGELES -- Opponents of a law requiring almost all schoolchildren in California to be vaccinated against diseases such as measles and whooping cough submitted signatures today in an attempt to qualify a referendum to overturn it.
Valid signatures from 365,880 registered voters -- 5 percent of the total votes cast for governor in the 2014 general election -- are needed to qualify the referendum for the November 2016 ballot, according to Secretary of State Alex Padilla.
Just two months before international climate talks begin in Paris, a new report from energy and environmental groups predicts greenhouse gases can plunge 77 percent in 2050 by electrifying more than half the nation's cars, trucks and forklifts.
Through electrification of 53 percent of the vehicle miles traveled primarily from passenger cars, small trucks, buses and off-road equipment, along with more wind and solar power plants, the nation would realize a reduction in greenhouse gases of 550 metric tons per year in 35 years, equal to 100 million gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles taken off the road, according to the report.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. >> Supporters of an effort to repeal California's new law requiring mandatory vaccines for schoolchildren faced a Monday deadline to turn in enough signatures to qualify a ballot initiative asking voters to repeal the law.
The group had until the end of the day to submit the needed 366,000 signatures to county clerks to ask California voters to repeal SB277, which struck the state's personal belief exemption for immunizations, a move that requires nearly all public schoolchildren to be vaccinated.
I totally love this idea. My calorie-counting app just cried.
SAN GABRIEL >>To kick off the month of October, San Gabriel is hosting its own version of Oktoberfest with an Asian-inspired twist.
In addition to live music from Moonsville Collective, an Americana string band, the inaugural Dumpling & Beer Fest will feature several vendors serving up two local staples -- craft beer and dumplings.
Dangit. This was kind of annoying. Saw a glimmer of it toward the end.
LOS ANGELES -- Mother Nature pulled a cloudy curtain over the Southland's much-anticipated supermoon lunar eclipse show this weekend.
Overcast skies throughout Southern California limited views of the region's first such eclipse since 1982, dampening somewhat a rare celestial event for area sky-gazers.
LOL. Oh dear. This is as bad as the European refugee crisis!
Facebook and Instagram went down Monday afternoon for the second time in less than a week. Left without an alternative, people took to Twitter to share their frustration and feign concern.
Amazon Studios
Jeffrey Tambor as the transgender character Maura in Transparent, an Amazon Original series that can be watched only on the Internet
1.
Between 1999 and 2009, annual revenues in the music industry declined from $14.6 billion to $6.3 billion, according to the market analysis firm Forrester Research. The music business was first attacked from below by illegal file sharing on Napster and subsequently from above by Apple’s iTunes, which unbundled fourteen-dollar CDs into ninety-nine-cent songs. Even as user habits have shifted again, away from owning digital audio files such as MP3s and toward renting music from streaming services like Spotify and Pandora, recording industry revenues have remained flat, below the level where they were in the 1970s.
Newspapers followed a similar pattern, sustaining a much greater destruction of value in a shorter period of time. From 2006 to 2012, revenues fell from $49.3 billion to $22.3 billion, according to trade association figures. The challengers from below included Craigslist, which turned the multibillion-dollar print classified business into a multimillion-dollar online business. Google diverted other advertising dollars while online news sapped print circulation.
These disruptions left the question of when the television business would face its turn on the dissecting table. But despite sharing the vulnerabilities of other long-standing media—shrinking audiences, changing consumption patterns, new competition for ad dollars—the television dinosaur has only grown fatter. According to the research firm SNL Kagan, cable TV revenues rose from $36 billion in 2000 to $93 billion in 2010. Profits of the giant conglomerates—ABC/Disney, NBC Universal, Fox, Viacom, and CBS—have continued to climb in the years since. Cable operators thrive despite antiquated technology, extreme customer dissatisfaction, and the challenge of Internet streaming services like Netflix and Amazon, which now create their own original content as well. Even local broadcast stations remain highly profitable despite the declining audiences for their core news product, thanks in part to a surge of political spending following the Citizens United decision in 2010.
How the television business has eluded the bitter fate of other media is the subject of Michael Wolff’s new book, Television Is the New Television. “For sixty years, television, given massive generational, behavioral, and technological shifts, has managed to change…not so much,” he writes. To Wolff, the industry’s imperviousness to digital disruption counts as nothing short of heroic. In an assemblage of digressive riffs, he praises television’s stodginess in defense of profits. This stands in contrast to newspapers and magazines, which he derides for embracing digital transformation in ways that have only accelerated their decline. For example, he criticizes The New York Times for relinquishing its attachment to a print edition that still provides nearly 80 percent of its revenue in favor of the much smaller, “profitless space” online.
Wolff contends that television learned a useful lesson from the gutting of the music industry. The record companies were at first lackadaisical in protecting their intellectual property, then went after their own customers, filing lawsuits against dorm-room downloaders. Under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, passed in 1998, sites hosting videos such as YouTube appeared to be within their rights to wait for takedown notices before removing pirated material. But Viacom, led by the octogenarian Sumner Redstone, sued YouTube anyway. Its 2007 lawsuit forced Google, which had bought YouTube the previous year, to abandon copyright infringement as a business model. Thanks to the challenge from Viacom, YouTube became a venue for low-value content generated by users (“Charlie Bit My Finger”) and acceded to paying media owners, such as Comedy Central, a share of its advertising revenue in exchange for its use of material. “Instead of a common carrier they had become, in a major transformation, licensors,” Wolff writes. Where it might have been subsumed by a new distribution model, the television business instead subsumed its disruptor.
Wolff is dismissive of newer threats to the business. He regards cord cutting—customers dropping premium cable bundles in favor of Internet services such as Netflix—as an insignificant phenomenon. But even if it gathers steam, as recent evidence suggests may be happening, cord cutting leaves Comcast and Time Warner Cable, the largest cable companies, in a win-win position, since they provide the fiber optic cables that deliver broadband Internet to the home as well as those that bring TV. Even if you decide not to pay for hundreds of channels you don’t watch, you’ll pay the same monopoly to stream House of Cards. (This won’t provide much comfort, however, to companies that own the shows, which stand to lose revenue from both cable subscribers and commercials priced according to ratings.)
For Wolff, the resilience of the TV business finds its embodiment in Les Moonves, whom he describes as the “self-satisfied, overpaid” CEO of CBS, “with his singular passion and talent for old-fashioned American television.” In 2005, Viacom spun off its less desirable assets, including CBS and its storied news division, and handed them to Moonves to deal with. A decade later, CBS is worth more than the rest of Viacom combined, including MTV, VH1, and Nickelodeon. Moonves accomplished this through skillful negotiations with the cable operators, whom he realized couldn’t very well offer their customers channel packages that didn’t include CBS local stations. In 2013, Moonves demanded dramatically larger retransmission fees from Time Warner Cable and made his stations unavailable to Time Warner when he didn’t get them. After a month without CBS, TWC capitulated.
Thanks to these “retrans” fees, you pay eight dollars a month for ESPN whether you watch sports or not. It’s not the cable operators who are denying consumers the à la carte option many would prefer. It’s the big five television companies who refuse to parcel out their offerings—(1) ABC/Disney, which owns ESPN, A&E, and Lifetime; (2) NBC Universal, which owns USA, Bravo, and the Weather Channel; (3) Fox, which owns Fox Sports, F/X, and National Geographic; (4) Viacom, which owns Comedy Central, BET, and MTV; and (5) CBS, which owns Showtime, the Movie Channel, and the CW. For these companies, the indirect charges they receive for their content have become the pot of gold at the end of the advertising rainbow.
The positive aspect to this consumer-unfriendly economic model may be better television. Most commercials are directed at young people, based on the advertising industry’s belief in establishing brand loyalty early. That’s why so much ad-supported programming caters to the tastes of teenagers. Adults, however, pay cable bills, and this fosters the kind of long-arc narratives and complicated antiheroes that appeal to more mature audiences. Wolff argues that the economics of pay TV have driven the emergence of “storytelling on a riveting, epic, how-we-live-now scale: the baby boom trying to understand itself and the world it had wrought.”
There is indeed some wonderful stuff on TV these days, but prestige programs like Mad Men and Breaking Bad may owe more to obscure cable channels trying to distinguish themselves in a vast marketplace than to the third-party payer system embedded in the mumbo-jumbo of cable bills. The independent cable channel AMC continues to depend on advertising, and its competitors like Bravo, A&E, History, and Lifetime make their money from the advertising revenue of prime-time lineups of tawdry reality shows. Wolff idealizes the new television in a way that suggests he hasn’t spent much time watching Duck Dynasty. He doesn’t appear to be all that interested in what’s actually on TV. His broad embrace of it serves a different purpose: as a cudgel to attack the digital media that have been getting much attention. Wolff devotes a lot of his book to smacking the latest generation of digital media companies: BuzzFeed (a “staff of engineers able to game the social media world”); the Forbes website (“a shell game, in which, through a series of ever-developing stratagems, random eyeballs…were tricked or promoted into coming to the site”); and Vice (“so bizarre is the notion that Vice’s young male audience will watch international news that puzzled media minds can only seem to conclude it must be true”).
To Wolff, good old-fashioned television delivers something that these social optimizers, clickbaiters, and video clip-jobbers can’t, which is to keep audiences immersed in stories with a beginning, middle, and end. The economic reason for this, he asserts, is digital overabundance. On the Web, any given page can be seen many times so there are countless opportunities to advertise. This inexorably drives CPMs—cost per thousand page views, the unit by which advertising prices are typically measured—below the level that can support the creation of high-quality content in any form.
Some of Wolff’s judgments about digital trends hit their mark. But his analysis is too categorical and in places simply wrong. As younger audiences shift from television to digital consumption of media, advertising dollars are following them. Prices for desirable ad placements on the Web remain high, even as the value of generic traffic on most websites goes down. In the end, Wolff’s hostility toward digital media leads him to overstate both TV’s immunity to disruption and his case that, because of the law of supply and demand, nothing of value can ever become a real business online.
2.
You can’t understand Wolff’s scorn for new media without reading Burn Rate (1998), the entertaining, self-lacerating account of his first foray as a digital entrepreneur. In the earliest days of the Internet, Wolff had the insight that people would need to know what sites were worth visiting, and he began publishing books and online reviews to guide them. Your Personal Network, as his site was called, was soon swept away by web portals like AOL and Yahoo that provided e-mail, news, and search engines all on a single site.
But before that happened, Wolff nearly became rich, nearly went bankrupt, and finally walked away disillusioned both with the Internet and with many of those trying to build a business around it. In that book, Wolff depicts himself as both a visionary and a charlatan, ready to cheat and deceive in the attempt to cash out of his ticking time bomb of a start-up before it blows. “How many fairly grievous lies had I told?” he asks himself. “How many moral lapses had I committed? How many ethical breaches had I fallen into?” The justification for his bad behavior is implicitly that, hey, other people were even worse. If Wolff remains hyper-vigilant about new media con artists, his own confessions should be kept in mind.
At the conclusion of Burn Rate, Wolff declares himself sick of the Internet racket and ready to go back to the honest business of journalism. He turned his hand to writing a column for New York magazine, then for Vanity Fair and a variety of other publications before arriving at his unlikely present home, USA Today. By the time of Autumn of the Moguls (2003), a book derived from his New York columns, Wolff has turned as cynical about the old media world as he was about the Internet. Now it is the “titans, poseurs, and money guys” of his subtitle, surveyed with a gimlet eye from his table at Michael’s, who can’t possibly get away with it much longer. The media business, Wolff declares, is collapsing because of inflated salaries, bloated egos, and dumb ideas. In view of his liberal politics, it is curious that the one mogul who wins his admiration is Rupert Murdoch, whom he praises for the purity of his ruthlessness. This relatively flattering portrayal might have helped to provide the entrée Wolff required for his next book, The Man Who Owns the News (2008), a biography with which Murdoch, his lieutenants, and all of his family inexplicably cooperated.
Comedy Central
Stephen Colbert, who has just taken over The Late Show on the CBS television network, on his earlier Comedy Central television show, The Colbert Report
As a media writer, Wolff specializes in sizing people up and cutting them down. An hour spent with Alan Rusbridger, the former editor of The Guardian, he writes in British GQ, is “unpleasant in the exertions required to penetrate his lack of transparency.” The secret of Tina Brown’s career is “failing upward.” Even among “semi-retarded” newspaper business reporters, the late David Carr was “quite a nitwit.” Contempt expressed so promiscuously has a tendency to lose potency. But if Wolff the columnist is consistently mean, he is seldom dull, often writing what others inside the New York media bubble think about each other but would only say in private.
In recent years, Wolff has continued to ricochet back and forth between old media curmudgeon and new media visionary. In 2007, he founded a site called Newser, whose goal, he declared in an interview at the time, was to replace the network news. This was a grandiose notion for an undercapitalized would-be competitor to the The Huffington Post, which did little more than rework stories found elsewhere and crown them with punchier headlines. Go to Newser, whose motto is “Read less. Know More,” and you’ll find a collection of editorial content in a form adapted to generate Facebook traffic: “Set Foot On This Island And You May Not Leave Alive” and “Super 5-Year-Olds: 5 Great Things This Week.”
According to the site, “Michael Wolff is the founder of Newser and guides its overall direction.” The experience of launching and running a second digital content startup goes unmentioned, however, in his new book, perhaps because Newser embodies the kind of bottom-feeding clickbait that the author of Television Is the New Television dismisses as “lower-end junk.” While he ignores the awfulness of most television programming, Wolff offers no respect to even the better digital-first destinations—Vox, Vulture, 538, The Atavist, The Awl, Quartz, Slate, Salon, Tablet, Politico Magazine, The Onion, Funny or Die, and—on their better days—BuzzFeed, The Huffington Post, Business Insider, Gawker, and Vice. As businesses, these free sites are challenged by heavy dependence on advertising, but they produce a great deal of original, high-quality content.1 May the real sin of some of these outlets be that they’ve found traction that eluded Your Personal Network and Newser?
Like the venture capitalists currently pumping investments into the new startups, Wolff can be counted on to reverse his biases every few years or so: content is king; content is a dismal commodity; content is king again. The chief difference is that he is on a countercycle, endorsing old models when others embrace disruption and vice versa. Wolff has the right to change his mind, of course, and it is hard to think of any media sage who has been either consistent or correct over the past two decades. But at some point his blanket assertions, unsupported by evidence and animated by the conviction that anyone who thinks what he thought not very long ago must be weak-minded, begin to lose their charm.
3.
Whatever he believed ten years ago, is Wolff right that it’s now springtime for the old television machers? To answer that question, it’s necessary to step back from his latest embrace of the pre-digital in favor of more evidence-based analysis. An excellent place to start is Alan Wolk’s self-published book Over the Top: How the Internet Is (Slowly but Surely) Changing the Television Industry. Wolk, a well-connected industry analyst, points to a very different future for the television business than the one Wolff depicts. Wolk thinks that the sector is poised for major disruption, even if it’s unclear from which side or how quickly the transformation is likely to come.
In an industry where all the big players are still making loads of money, Wolk explains, no one has an interest in upsetting the apple cart. But that hardly makes the current disposition secure. If “the world still sits in front of a television,” as Wolff asserts, that becomes less true with the passing of every measured month. Time-shifted viewing (recording programs so you can see them when you want) and streaming video (watching video on the Internet) mean that conventional television audiences are shrinking fast, except for live sports and news events like the Fox News Republican debate.
For the June–July period, the top thirty cable networks were down more than 10 percent in prime-time viewers compared to a year earlier, according to Nielsen. Viewership in the eighteen-to-forty-nine category, which advertisers care about most, fell 20 percent.2 The audience for live TV appears to be contracting to a smaller base of passive, older viewers. Most worrisome from a financial perspective is that television is reaching fewer fifteen-to-thirty-five-year-olds, who spend more time engaging with social media on smartphones than staring at freestanding screens. The promise of access to this generation of consumers explains recent investments in the new outlets Wolff regards as valueless, including ABC’s stake in Fusion, NBC Universal’s interest in BuzzFeed and Vox, and nearly everyone’s investments in Vice.
When it comes to advertising revenues, declining audiences have so far had an ambiguous impact, sometimes driving up advertising prices for demographic segments that are becoming harder to reach, like children. But this is a melting iceberg model: shrinking real estate may drive prices higher, but at some point, there’s not much ground left to stand on. The total volume of “upfront” sales, in which networks command their highest prices for advertising sponsorships on prime-time programs, has been declining along with the reach of live television. What’s more, as audiences migrate away from live television, Netflix and Amazon are training viewers to expect entertainment without the interruption of ads.
What used to be television advertising dollars continue to migrate toward several different kinds of ads, whether online video, mobile, search, or digital display advertising. According to a forecast by the Forrester research firm, spending on digital advertising will surpass spending on television advertising in 2016. For television companies, retransmission fees may pick up more of the slack, but recent media company earnings reports indicate that those fees, and the ability of cable companies to pass them along to consumers, may have hit a ceiling. Smaller cable systems have recently been holding out against price increases demanded by Viacom and others as cable subscription numbers fall.
Today, digital content hubs like YouTube, AOL, and Yahoo that deliver the largest audiences, as well as premium sites like The New York Times, can demand high prices for ads. They do so especially for “native” ads, i.e., ads similar in form to the surrounding editorial content, and for those that run just before short-form video. Conversely, the future of television may come to look more like digital, with more and more advertising sold “programmatically,” meaning that it targets specific audiences across multiple networks rather than buying on the basis of guaranteed ratings of individual shows. This shift brings the risk for the big five not only of lower prices per thousands of viewers. It also heightens the risk that more of the value of the advertising will be raked off by “ad-tech” intermediaries that target, track, and verify that commercials have been viewed by their intended audiences.
Never underestimate the durability of a monopoly, but the cable companies, with their anachronistic two-thousand- channel grids and 1990s-era set-top boxes, face real vulnerabilities as well. Here the disruption might come through an alternative way of receiving high-speed Internet, such as national or municipal Wi-Fi networks that would transmit the same materials now delivered by cable. Alternatively, the government could force the cable companies to open, for use by competitors, the “last mile” of wiring that brings high-speed Internet into the home. The 1982 breakup of AT&T’s “natural monopoly” on phone service provides a precedent here. A legislative fight on this issue would pit unlovable Comcast and Time Warner Cable against GAFA—Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon. The gafa companies would like to be able to sell pay TV through cables of their own. Or, before any of that happens, the balance of power in the industry may simply shift more dramatically to the GAFA companies, whose long-rumored entry into the TV market is already taking place in the form of original shows available only online, such as the Amazon series Transparent. These tech companies also have the financial resources to compete for exclusive rights to stream live sports events, another shift that could sound the death knell of live TV.
Wolk’s book is also more interesting than Wolff’s about the way media economics is changing the shape of filmed content. The all-at-once release model, which Netflix pioneered with the Norwegian-American crime comedy Lilyhammer in 2012, was the experiment that immediately expanded the market for television auteurs. When a twenty-two-episode season was shown over six months, writers could introduce or kill off characters and plot lines in response to audience reactions. Now writers must rely mainly on their own instincts to deliver a finished season designed for binge viewing. This is another factor making scripted TV more novelistic.
Do these evolving patterns of content distribution and consumption represent disruption or persistence? Wolff’s bias against new media leads him into tautology: that which succeeds demonstrates the durability of television. That which fails to earn immediate profits exposes the shell game of digital media. It’s true that someone binge-watching a bulk-released season of Orange Is the New Black on a Wi-Fi-connected laptop is in some recognizable sense watching TV, just as a person reading The Washington Post via Facebook on his or her iPhone is reading the newspaper. But it’s hard to accept Michael Wolff’s view that the former represents the triumph of the old and the latter foolish acquiescence to the new.