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01 Jun 15:42

The transcript of my talk with Peter Thiel

by Tyler Cowen

You will find it here.  Here is one excerpt:

TYLER COWEN: New York City, overrated or underrated?

PETER THIEL: That’s massively overrated.

TYLER COWEN: Why?

PETER THIEL: We had a 25-year boom in finance, from ’82 to ’07. I think that’s slowly ebbing, slowly abating. It’s going to be increasingly regulated, and so if you want a long/short blue state trade, you want to be long California, short New York. The long/short red state trade, by the way, is you want to be long Texas, short Virginia.

If you ask, what do Virginia and New York have in common, and what do Texas and California have in common? Both Texas and California are very inward-focused places. California, both the Hollywood version and the Silicon Valley version, are very focused in on themselves. Texas is also a very inward-focused place.

What Virginia and New York, or let’s say DC and New York City, have in common is that they’re centers of globalization. Finance is an industry that’s fundamentally leveraged to globalization, and DC is fundamentally leveraged to international geopolitics.

I would bet on globalization slowly being in abeyance. I think with the benefit of hindsight, we will realize that 2007 was not just the peak year of the finance boom, but also the peak year of globalization, like maybe 1913. Happily, it hasn’t resulted in a world war, at least not yet, but I think we are in this period where globalization is steadily pulling back.

And so you want to be in places or industries that are levered to things other than globalization.

Self-recommending…The YouTube and podcast versions are here.

30 May 17:27

美国合法化大麻打击墨西哥毒贩的跨境交易

by WinterIsComing
美国打击墨西哥毒贩的跨境毒品走私活动数十年来都没有取得什么效果。然而有一种“毒品”最近正快速减少——大麻。美国边境巡逻队扣押的大麻从2011年的250万磅减少到2014年的190万磅,墨西哥军方在2014年没收了664吨印度大麻,比前一年减少了32%。大麻的消失被认为与美国多个州合法化大麻有关。科罗拉多州和华盛顿州在2012年合法化大麻,阿拉斯加、俄勒冈州和华盛顿特区在2014年实现大麻合法化。医用大麻则在23个州实现了合法化。Marijuana Majority的主席Tom Angell说,大麻消费者选择合法来源而不是黑市未经测试或监管的产品,他对此不感到意外。






28 May 12:09

Self-Control and Unemployment

by Arnold Kling

Jason Collins passes along this not-surprising result from a study by Michael Daly and others.

Analyzing unemployment data from two nationally representative British cohorts (N = 16,780), we found that low self-control in childhood was associated with the emergence and persistence of unemployment across four decades. On average, a 1-SD increase in self-control was associated with a reduction in the probability of unemployment of 1.4 percentage points after adjustment for intelligence, social class, and gender. From labor-market entry to middle age, individuals with low self-control experienced 1.6 times as many months of unemployment as those with high self-control.

This is one reason that it will be difficult to disentangle the effect of single parenting on economic outcomes. If parents of out-of-wedlock children have less self-control than married parents, and if self-control is somewhat heritable, then one could observe poor outcomes for children of single-parent families even if the family environments are not a problem.

17 May 12:06

巩固苹果第一大伙伴地位,鸿海创意出招卖二手iPhone

       为二手机盖新厂,还比照新机处理,免费提供一年保质,鸿海耗费一年主动谈合作,配合苹果在中国大陆旧换新活动,这个外界眼中一石二鸟之计,考验刚刚开始。鸿海集团董事长郭台铭和苹果(Apple)跨出代工的新合作案,正式展开……
17 May 02:10

The Chinese bailout has started

by Tyler Cowen

What if, circa 2007, the Fed had figured out what was going on and wanted to take some concentrated steps to save the day?  Well, that is the position China is in today, and they are acting fairly decisively:

China is imposing a $160bn municipal bonds for debt swap on banks in an effort to shift some of the financing costs of cash-strapped local governments back to lenders…

Banks are supposed to swap out higher-yielding business loans in return for more municipal bonds, noting that banks owned about 63 percent of the outstanding municipal bonds to begin with.  As a form of compensation, the central bank will accept these municipal securities as collateral for some of its special lending facilities.  The policy is a mix of jawboning and inducement, in which exact proportions we shall see; there is further coverage here.

You can think of it as “we may expect you banks to share in some of the losses on this paper, but if push comes to shove we’ll just monetize the municipal debt and bail you out too.”

You may recall:

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s late last year estimated that half of all Chinese provinces would merit junk ratings…

These (non-transparent) municipal debts may exceed $3 trillion. And Christopher Balding, in his excellent post on all this, makes a very good point:

Especially with land revenue falling by more than 30% annually when it typically constitutes more than 50% of government revenue, the provinces’ ability to repay is highly suspect.

Some goals of the bailout are to keep the local governments up and running, and also building infrastructure, so that urbanization does not slow down.  This is all being done in conjunction with a series of interest rate cuts, and there is likely yet more to come.

Balding adds this as well:

…the banks, after getting cash for the bonds as collateral from the PBOC, are being encouraged to lend out this cash to firms in favored industries.  Given the drop in risk weighted capital from holding government as an additional benefit, this means that banks will have significant new capital to lend.  The rapid rise in Chinese debt, which has even officially surpassed most developed countries, seems bound to rise even more.  I can’t [help but] think that this seems like trying to sober up an alcoholic by buying him a beer.

…Here is hoping that deposit insurance will never be needed.

It will be very interesting to see how this goes, and so far these events remain a dramatically undercovered story.  My net takeaway, to date, is that the finances of the provincial governments must be worse than most observers had thought.

16 May 17:23

On All That “Christianity Is Dying” Stuff

by Kevin Vallier

A number of my atheist friends have celebrated the new Pew surveys (purportedly) indicating the collapse Christianity in America. That’s not what the polls say. For instance, evangelical Christians, the Christians my atheist friends most mistrust and dislike, are doing fine:

While it should be noted that evangelicals’ share of the overall U.S. population dropped by 0.9% over the last seven years based on denominational affiliation, the percentage of U.S. adults who self-identify as evangelical rose from 34 to 35% over the same period of time. Don’t miss that: More than one-third of Americans call themselves evangelical.

And despite what many are saying, evangelicals are attending church more than ever. The latest (2014) General Social Survey found that in the last two years of the study a greater percentage of evangelicals are attending church than in any other time of the last 40 years. Currently, 55 percent of evangelicals attend church at least nearly every week.

The religious people going secular are people with low conviction and/or political and religious moderates – people who take positions between the extremes of evangelical faith and secular progressivism (and secular libertarianism).

I think we should all recognize a downside to this social phenomenon, regardless of our views. The great good mainline Protestantism provided this country for centuries was the good of having political and social “moderates” in general. They create the social space for political and religious partisans to translate their concerns into language that the other side could understand (think Mr. Rogers or Jimmy Carter when he was president). Having lots of social, political and religious moderates makes that easier, since there are a lot of people prepared to take both sides seriously. The guy who goes to church every so often both respects his wife as a woman of faith and his scientifically oriented son. When mother and child disagree, he can smooth things over. Similarly with religious and political moderates in the public square.

The more moderates we lose, the harder it is for those of us at different ends of the political and religious spectra to understand and respect one another. After all, there are fewer people insisting that we do so.

So with regard to the new data, score 1 for those who give their lives meaning by trying to defeat their religious and political opponents. Score 0 for those of us who would like to live well with people different from ourselves.

13 May 04:53

Liberals and Elizabeth Warren

by David Friedman
My previous post mentioned the controversy over Elizabeth Warren's claim to be a native American. The facts, as best I can determine them, are that she put herself on the minority law teacher list in her listing in the faculty directory of the American Association of Law Schools, from the mid-eighties until after she received tenure at Harvard, represented herself as native American to both the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard, and was so listed in federal filings by both universities. 

When questioned, Warren explained that she believed, from family tradition, that an ancestor had been Cherokee. When the issue arose during her 2012 senatorial campaign, supporters claimed to have documentary evidence that one of her great-great-great grandmothers had been listed as Cherokee. It eventually turned out that the claim was based on an assertion in a 2006 family newsletter—no actual documentation ever appeared. For an account from a source friendly to Warren, see this Mother Jones article. For a much more detailed account from a critical source, this web page.

Most of the controversy has been over whether Warren's claim was true, but that does not strike me as the interesting question. I not only have no documentary evidence with regard to any of my great-great-great grandmothers or even my great grandmothers, I don't even know their names. And, in any case, what is relevant in evaluating Warren's behavior is not what is true but what she believed.

I will assume, therefor, that Warren really did believe that she had a distant ancestor who was Cherokee. We are still left with the case of a woman who took advantage of preferential hiring policies designed to benefit disadvantaged minorities by claiming to be one in spite of not being a member of a disadvantaged minority in any meaningful sense. 

That is not admirable behavior, but neither is it, in my view, strikingly wicked—people quite often game systems for their own advantage in one way or another. But then, I am not a supporter of affirmative action. One would expect those who are to see it as a modern version of the proverbial offense of stealing pennies from a blind man's cup, diverting to her benefit resources that were supposed to go to other and worse off people. Yet Elizabeth Warren has not only not been ostracized by the liberal community, she has become one of their leading figures.

I can only see two plausible explanations. The less likely one is that most liberals do not really believe in their own proclaimed principles, do not care whether affirmative action policies actually benefit the people they are supposed to benefit. The more likely one is that this is an example of tribal behavior. Warren won back a blue tribe senate seat from a red tribe usurper. That gives her a free pass, the social equivalent of a get out of jail free card. Any evidence against her, however clear, is obviously enemy propaganda to be ignored.
10 May 19:08

美国批准戴姆勒自动驾驶卡车上路


罗伯特•赖特拉斯维加斯报道

周二,德国戴姆勒(Daimler)公布了首款将被批准用于商业用途的自动驾驶卡车。戴姆勒提到,该公司已经和内华达州州长达成协议,并表示这是实现其改变货运安全性和有效性目标的第一步。

戴姆勒表示,由于欧洲各国政府在自动驾驶卡车的监管批准方面动作较慢,该公司已将这种新的自动驾驶技术引入位于美国西南部的人烟稀少的内华达州。内华达州也是美国首批批准自动驾驶小轿车的州之一。

...

10 May 19:06

遭攻击的Max Planck神经学家退出灵长类动物研究

by WinterIsComing
一直是动物权益保护者攻击目标的德国神经学家Nikos Logothetis宣布退出灵长类动物研究。Logothetis说,他将“尽可能快的”结束现有的猕猴试验,然后将研究转向啮齿动物的神经网络。在一封给同行的信中,Logothetis将缺少支持作为其决定的关键因素。他认为Max Planck学会和其它组织应当起诉那些针对研究人员的激进主义分子。去年9月德国国家电视台公开了一位在研究所工作的卧底动物权益保护者拍摄的视频,旨在展示动物受到虐待。节目播出后引发了抗议,并且推动了一些针对该研究所动物保护实践的调查。但Max Planck学会的调查没有发现有严重违反动物保护规定的行为,当地政府领导的第三方调查还在进行之中,警方还在今年1月突袭了研究所。Logothetis在信中指责同行为求自保远离争议。






10 May 03:41

Why Good Teachers Get Bad Evaluations

by David Friedman
The current Slate Star Codex, my favorite blog, has a link to an account of an interesting piece of research on student evaluations of teachers. It judged the quality of teachers by how well their students did in later courses,  compared the result to student evaluations of teaching quality, and found that the two anti-correlated. On average, good teachers get bad ratings, bad teachers get good ratings. For details, follow the link.

It's a single study, I have not read the original paper, and the result might be wrong. But it is interesting to think about reasons why it might well be right.

The most obvious one is that many students don't like to work hard. A professor who does not assign much homework or reading and grades easily might get better ratings, from many although not all students, than one with the opposite pattern. My daughter, as a student at Oberlin, was struck by the fact that most of the other students in a class were happy when, for some reason, it didn't meet. The same pattern—study seen as a cost, not a benefit—might well apply here.

There is a second and less obvious possible reason. Correct ideas are frequently hard. Easy ideas are frequently wrong. My standard example is from popular discussions of foreign trade issues. Most of them take for granted a view of the economics of trade, the view implicit in terms such as "unfavorable balance of trade," that  economists refer to as the theory of absolute advantage. That particular view of the subject has been obsolete for about two hundred years. But while the theory of absolute advantage does not make sense if you think about it carefully, it is considerably easier to understand than the theory of comparative advantage, which does. That is why the former was worked out first and why it has had such a successful postmortem career.

A professor who insists on telling the truth, on explaining hard ideas correctly, may well come across as a worse teacher than one who fudges, offers a simplified and less correct version. Half the students of the former end up believing that they do not entirely understand the subject being taught—and they are right. Almost all the students of the latter end up sure they understand it—and wrong.


20 Apr 09:33

Will China Get Fat Before It Gets Rich?

by Jonathan Woetzel

The rising wave of obesity around the world and its health and economic costs cannot be ignored—even in China. This is no longer a “western” problem. Today, 62 percent of the world’s obese people are in developing countries.

Global scourge

More than 2.1 billion people—nearly 30 percent of the global population—are overweight or obese today. That’s nearly two and a half times the number of adults and children who are undernourished. Obesity is responsible for about 5 percent of deaths worldwide. The global economic impact from obesity is roughly $2.0 trillion, or 2.8 percent of global GDP, roughly equivalent to the global impact from smoking or armed violence, war, and terrorism.

A problem for China?

The fact of the matter is that rapid industrialization and urbanization is boosting incomes (Exhibit 1). Higher incomes mean more food and often a more sedentary lifestyle. The risk of obesity rises.

In China, the prevalence of obesity in cities is three to four times the rate in rural areas, reflecting higher incomes in urban areas and therefore higher levels of nutrition and food consumption and often less active labor. The prevalence of obese and overweight people rose at 1.2 percent a year in Chinese adult males between 1985 and 2004 and 1 percent a year in adult females.[1] Today, the top social cost to China is air pollution, the second is smoking, and obesity ranks only ninth. That ranking could rise very quickly.

Famine and feast

There is worrying evidence that obesity can entrench itself even more quickly in countries that have experienced food scarcity in the recent past. Take the Micronesian island of Nauru, which, until the mid-20th century, experienced repeated food shortages and starvation. Once food poverty was a thing of the past, the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes soared to among the highest worldwide. In 2010, 94 percent of men and 93 percent of women were overweight, and approximately 71 percent of the population was obese.[2]

What needs to be done?

Without action, almost half of adults in the world will be overweight or obese by 2030. MGI’s recent economic analysis of obesity looked at 74 interventions that are being discussed or piloted somewhere in the world (including restrictions on advertising of high-calorie food and drink, calorie and nutritional labeling, and public-health campaigns); we had sufficient information to compare 44 of these internationally. The conclusion was that each single intervention is likely to have only a small impact on its own. Only a systemic, sustained portfolio of anti-obesity initiatives will work—implemented on a large scale. Everyone needs to play their part from government to retailers, consumer-goods companies, restaurants, employers, media organizations, educators, health-care providers, and individuals.

Individual responsibility for health and fitness is vital, but experience shows it is insufficient on its own. People need help and that means changes to the environment in which they are making choices. Such changes include changing marketing practices, and restructuring cities to make it easier for people to exercise.

Change is cost-effective

MGI’s initial analysis of obesity in the United Kingdom found that almost all of the 44 interventions are cost-effective. So it is well worth China experimenting with solutions and trying them out—before obesity takes hold and becomes an expensive problem.

 

[1] Barry M. Popkin, “Will China’s nutrition transition overwhelm its health care system and slow economic growth?” Health Affairs, volume 27, number 4, 2008.

[2] Nauru country health information profile 2011, statistical annex, World Health Organization.

* * *

I’m a Director in McKinsey’s Shanghai office and Director of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) in Asia. I also co-lead the Urban China Initiative (UCI), a thinktank devoted to transforming China’s urban future. Visit the UCI website here.

Read my latest book, The One Hour China Book: Two Peking University Professors Explain All of China Business in Six Short Stories

20 Apr 09:26

Chrome 43启用升级非安全请求

by WinterIsComing
Chrome 43将启用新的内容安全策略:升级非安全请求(upgrade-insecure-resources)。类似的策略Firefox从2013年开始已在采用。Chrome 43发布了beta版,将在下个月发布正式稳定版本。我们正走向一个全面迁移到HTTPS的时代,但许多传统网站面临的一个棘手问题是页面可能包含了HTTP资源请求,所以在启用HTTPS后页面的HTTP请求仍然给中间人劫持和监听留下了空间,在启用升级非安全请求后,HTTP会被作为HTTPS对待,网站的开发者无需再为此担心,浏览器会自动帮你完成安全升级。






20 Apr 09:24

Uber动态提价是否真的有用?

by WinterIsComing
打车软件Uber有一项动态提价功能:算法会根据古典经济学的供求原则调整价格,当预测到某个区域供不应求,它会提高费率鼓励更多司机前往该区域。问题是这一功能是否真的有效果。马里兰大学助理教授Nicholas Diakopoulos分析了Uber四周的价格变化数据。动态提价被认为会以三种方式工作:减少打车需求,原因是更少的人会接受更高的车价;创造更多的供应,因为高价会激励更多新司机去提供打车服务;转移供应到高需求的区域,司机从低需求的区域前往高需求的区域。Diakopoulos的结论是,动态提价没有增加新司机数量,而是根据需求重新分配了现有司机的工作区域,换句话说Uber确实有效的。作者指出了Uber的一个问题:它的价格变化太快了,价格几分钟就变了,所以新司机无法及时启动汽车响应高需求。






17 Apr 15:14

微软在欧盟起诉Google垄断上扮演的角色

by WinterIsComing
Whig Zhou

傻逼

在欧盟正式指控Google滥用市场支配地位的反托拉斯诉讼案中,微软扮演了一个重要角色。雷德蒙德巨人曾经是欧盟监管机构的打击对象,在缴纳了超过30亿美元罚金之后,它如今变成了垄断的受害者和批评者。微软创建或资助了一系列行业组织游说对Google的调查,其中最知名最活跃的是Initiative for a Competitive Online Marketplace(缩写Icomp)。微软与三起促使欧盟调查Google垄断行为的早期投诉存在不同程度的联系。上个月,微软作为美国企业代表团的成员告诉美国驻欧盟大使,让Google自己去应对欧盟监管机构。微软和Google就像美国科技界的该隐和亚伯,微软对于美国没有采取行动起诉Google垄断表达了不满,而如今的主战场则转移到远离两家公司总部数千里远的欧洲。欧洲人民党主席Manfred Weber说,微软在尽它最大的努力给Google创造问题。这很有趣,十年前微软还是一家强大的公司,而如今它却是弱者。






16 Apr 08:20

Uber进军印度三轮车

by 小笨
三轮车在印度有着非同寻常的意义。印度的公交车强奸案频发太危险,印度女性更愿意选择私家车服务,比如机动三轮车。
18 Mar 10:56

内塔尼亚胡在以色列大选中获胜

约翰•里德特拉维夫报道

初步民调结果显示,以色列右翼领导人本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)在当日大选中获得压倒性胜利,大败中左翼反对派领导人艾萨克•赫尔佐格(Isaac Herzog),将第四次当选以色列总理。

在统计了99.5%的选票后,结果显示,内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团(Likud Party)有望获得30个议会席位,占以色列议会总席位的四分之一,远高于赫尔佐格领导的中...

13 Mar 14:16

亚洲新兴市场资金大规模流出

fastFT报道

基金数据跟踪机构EPFR的最新数据显示,截至3月11日的一周,亚洲新兴市场基金资金流出规模为24亿美元,而一周前为流入3.38亿美元。

中国占资金流出规模的一大部分(13.5亿美元),这表明在中国国务院总理李克强将中国2015年经济增长目标下调至“7%左右”后,外国投资者兴趣减弱。最新数据还表明,中国2月进口同比下滑五分之一,突显出内需疲弱。

韩国资金流出总额为9...

06 Mar 12:33

英国医改输不起

朱利安•勒格朗, 扎克•库珀, 为英国《金融时报》撰稿

全世界的公司每一天都要处理大量的数据,以此改变他们做生意的方式。沃尔玛(Walmart)通过对海量数据的分析让自己的商品库存更加高效。谷歌(Google)凭借对我们以往的搜索进行统计学分析,令今后的搜索更加精准。

海量数据的涌现使人们分化成两大阵营,伊恩•艾瑞斯(Ian Ayres)在他所著的《超级数字天才》(Super Crunchers)一书中将他们称为“经验主义者”和“直...

06 Mar 12:27

英国是小政府吗?

蒂姆•哈福德

不管你是喜欢还是憎恶本届政府,人们一致认同,它正拼命为政府机构瘦身。支持者赞同英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)在大选前的判断:“正是政府过于庞大让我们陷入了当前这种困境。”怀疑者则批评联合政府施行不必要的削减措施,仅仅是源于意识形态上对小政府的热爱。

这些争论不禁让我好奇:英国政府机构到底有多大?这不是一个简单的问题。人们可以从规章制度的数量或公共部门的就业人...

06 Mar 12:27

英国大罢工引发口水战

布莱恩•格罗姆报道

英国各工会领导人警告政府部长们,要想解决公共部门的养老金争端,政府必须展示出“采取行动的真正意愿”。目前双方正就周三为期一天的罢工的有效性打口水战。

首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)称罢工为“一记哑炮”,这遭到工会的愤怒反驳。工会称,有多达200万人参与了自1979年“不满的冬天”以来最大规模的全国罢工。许多人是一生中首次罢工。

大约三分之二的公立学...


总共有 13 条读者评论
06 Mar 12:27

印度政府地窖里的秘密:卷着铺盖去印预算案

by ELLEN BARRY

新德里——在印度财政部的一个地下办公场所里,大约有100名政府工作人员即将结束他们囚徒般的生活。

连续九天九夜,他们在校对、印刷和装订1万份将于周六上午公之于众的预算文件。过去曾参与这种传统“禁闭”过程的官员称,这些工作人员被隔绝在用蜡密封的大门背后,不能打电话或收发电子邮件。

送来给这些工作人员食用的东西会先经过试吃,以降低食物中毒的风险。如果发生中毒,就需要把人从这片“消毒”区转移到一家政府医院的一个指定房间,受到来自印度情报局(Intelligence Bureau)的“幽灵”的监控。一名退休的情报官表示,实际上,有些印刷工本身就是情报局的特工,他们被安插在里面,是为了防止信息被泄露给企业界。

印度的预算总会得到大量关注,不过今年大家的神经尤其紧绷。距离纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)在印度总理竞选中获胜已经过去了9个月,他当时发誓要振兴印度经济,而他的一些支持者如今已对变化的速度表现出缺乏耐心

尽管经济增长数据看好,业界人士和经济学者却在发表一系列评论文章,敦促莫迪在他的第一个全年预算中不顾政治风险而宣布一些重大决策,比如大幅削减补贴或进行全面的税收改革。有些文章语气急迫,警告结构性改革的机会窗口已经开始关闭。

不管预算中包含什么内容,它都被密封在一个极为保密的场所里。印度的这种精心设计的保密措施可以追溯到英国统治时期。当时,针对茶叶或香料的税收调整会引发人们的囤积或甩卖行为。独立之后,政府支出对推动经济增长具有至关重要的作用,印度开始采用更为细致的防范措施。

一些分析人士表示,随着消费支出和企业投资等外部因素的重要性逐渐增强,保密的需要如今在降低。但是,对于负责预算出炉过程的工作人员而言,保密仍然是一个信条。

“我可以自豪地说,印度的预算从未泄露过,”一名曾关过十多次“禁闭”的官员称。与记者联系的其他多数官员一样,此人要求不具名。“这套流程保证了它完全保密。谁会去想改变它?没有人!没人会冒这个险!”

2月19日,这些工作人员——审稿员、装订工、计算机技术人员、机器操作员、制版人员等等——逐一进入位于印度政府办公大楼北栋的地下印刷间和宿舍。这栋楼建于英国统治时期,通风良好、外表雅致。

“我见过那个地方,一切都发生在财政部底下。它就像是个地窖,一个地下洞穴,非常之大,”前财政部长S·纳拉扬(S. Narayan)通过电话接受采访时说。“它肯定是在很久之前建造的。我无法想象,有谁能在过去二三十年里在北栋挖出一个这么大的洞。”

曾参与“禁闭”的那名官员称,首先会有个仪式,由工作人员分享哈尔瓦——一种质地坚硬的甜品。人们还会在从法国和德国进口的巨型印刷机和装订机周围焚香。

“我们觉得预算是一个宗教仪式,”他说。“我们当天会敬奉机器,会向神明祈祷,希望机器能正常工作。”

之后入口将被封闭,布置三层安全防护措施,只允许少数财政部官员进出。工作人员会携带被褥——不过除此以外就没有多少东西了——然后与家人道别,预留一个财政部的联系电话,以防出现紧急情况。之后,他们需要长时间连续工作,可以享受不限量的茶水,中途在洞穴里睡觉休息。

这名官员承认,他在地下工作时很想念家人。他说,只记得有一次,一名工作人员离开了“禁闭”区。此人是来自拉贾斯坦邦的可怜工人,当时获知,自己6个月大的孩子夭折了。

在情报局一队人马的看护下,他离开了北栋,回到家乡所在的村子里过了一夜——这名官员称,他次日便回到“禁闭”区继续工作。

“他说,‘先生,我回来了,因为如果我不这样做,就是给你出难题,你的工作也会受到影响,’”这位官员表示。“我感到非常自豪。”

那名退休情报官称,探员会对所有参与其中的工作人员进行背景核查,监控他们是否有来源不明的收入。他说,情报部门尤其担心大型企业的代理人会与从事印刷工作的人员培养关系。这些代理人可能会通过共同的朋友联系他们,或者在孩子生日时赠送礼物,以期能提前一窥预算的真容。

这样做会有助于他们从即将宣布的政策中获益。例如,如果政府策划了大型工程,他们就可以投资基础设施公司;如果消费税即将面临改革,他们就可以投资汽车企业。

泄密的事情并非前所未有。过去两周,德里警方共逮捕了至少16人,包括政府文员、企业高级管理人员、独立顾问和一名新闻记者。针对他们的指控是,通过非法获取政府文件来从事企业间谍活动。据称,他们把这些文件提供给了印度最大的几家能源公司。

“与人脑打交道是一个非常艰巨的任务,”那名现已退休的情报官说。“你可以与我坐在一起,觉得我是个很不错的人。你也可以采取一切措施。但没人知道我会采取什么行动。”

翻译:陈柳

纽约时报中文网

27 Feb 04:51

“Google DeepMind”能以惊人的速度学习,人工智能威胁论再起

       谷歌拥有全球最尖端的人工智能技术,并将其运用在了语音搜索等领域。拥有这种技术的谷歌收购了人工智能风险企业“DeepMind”,开始加快增强技术实力的步伐。尽管与DeepMind有关的信息有限,但仍然可以通过视频及论文等,了解这项技术的大致情况……
26 Feb 16:56

揭开山达基教会的真相

by 乔·诺切拉

上世纪90年代,我在《财富》杂志(Fortune)工作时,有一个名叫理查德·贝哈尔(Richard Behar)的记者同事。他在门上装了一把特别的锁,不让清洁工倒他的废纸篓,而且还使用一部秘密电话,把它藏在办公桌的抽屉里。用这部电话的目的是与提供线索的人之间的通话不会追踪到他身上。

起初,我只是觉得他太多疑,但很快就发现,他这么小心不是没有道理的。1991年5月,他在《时代》周刊(Time)当记者时,写了一篇揭露山达基教(Scientology)内幕的文章,称它是“一个利润丰厚的全球诈骗网络,其生存方式是以黑社会性质的手段恐吓成员和批评者”。

贝哈尔说,在这篇文章发表前,就有私家侦探尾随他,还联系了他的不少熟人,问他是否有财务方面的问题。据他表示,该文发表后,这种骚扰就没有停止过,而且他还吃了一起重大诽谤官司。虽然诉讼最终被驳回,但辩护已经耗费了多年的时间和数百万美元的资金。仅是贝哈尔一人的宣誓作证就持续了28天。

引起我这段回忆的是一部出色的关于山达基教的HBO新纪录片《大白于天下:山达基教与信仰之狱》(Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief),由亚历克斯·吉布尼(Alex Gibney)根据劳伦斯·赖特(Lawrence Wright)的书《大白于天下》制作。(顺便说一句,在吉布尼2005年推出的纪录片《安然公司》[Enron]中,我扮演了一个小角色。)这部记录片于今年1月下旬在圣丹斯电影节上进行过展映,预定于3月29日在HBO播放。

要讲述山达基教的故事,几乎一定就会涉及恐吓问题。正如这部纪录片所述,对批评者发起攻击,是山达基教创始人L·罗恩·赫伯特(L. Ron Hubbard)传下来的教义之一。“这恰好是‘左脸也转过来由他打’的对立面,”该教前高级成员马蒂·拉思本(Marty Rathbun)说。根据这部纪录片的描述,2004年脱离该教会之后,拉思本就一直受到他们的骚扰。片中还讲述了一个最初发表在《纽约时报》上的故事:美国国税局(Internal Revenue Service)曾长期拒绝把山达基教会归入非营利组织类别,但1993年,在双方较量了25年之后,教会终于获得了胜利。这期间,他们针对国税局及其官员提起了几千次诉讼,还聘请私家侦探来查找这些官员的污点,监视他们的行动。

不过,这部纪录片并没有深入探讨记者们遭受的恐吓。在上世纪70年代初最早报道山达基教内幕的记者中,有一个年轻的自由撰稿人名叫波莱特·库珀(Paulette Cooper)。山达基教对她进行的报复令人发指。该教陷害她向教会发出炸弹威胁,并伪造了非常逼真的文件,导致她1973年遭到正式指控。直到1977年联邦调查局(FBI)得到一条线索,突击搜查了山达基教会的办公室,发现了针对她的阴谋,她才得以洗清罪名。

在接下来的30多年中,陆续出现过几篇态度鲜明的文章,比如贝哈尔的报道,尽管屈指可数。“所有写山达基教的人都知道自己是在冒险,”赖特告诉我。你听说过“寒蝉效应”吗?山达基教就是一个娴熟运用这种效应的好例子。

到了2009年,《坦帕湾时报》(The Tampa Bay Times)(当时叫做《圣彼得斯堡时报》[The St. Petersburg Times])根据对脱离山达基教的多名前高层的采访,发表了关于该教的重磅系列报道。受访者中包括拉思本和山达基教会曾经的首席发言人麦克·林德尔(Mike Rinder)。这是第一个指出山达基教长期存在虐待文化的报道。令人惊讶的是,教会这次没有提起诉讼。

《名利场》(Vanity Fair)同样发表了一篇关于山达基教的长文。(这是在汤姆·克鲁斯[Tom Cruise]和凯蒂·霍尔姆斯[Katie Holmes]分手之后。克鲁斯自然是最有名的山达基教信徒)教会也没有提起诉讼。接下来,安德森·库珀(Anderson Cooper)在CNN的节目中做了一个系列报道。BBC和其他媒体也纷纷响应。

果然,当我与赖特和吉布尼交流时,他们表示,自己受到的冲击实属意料之中。山达基教的一家网站发布了攻击这两人的视频,教会还在报纸上用整版整版的广告来谴责《大白于天下》。“我没想到会招来这么大的恶意,”吉布尼告诉我。但他仍表示,“我认为这是很好的宣传。”

(山达基教会的一名发言人在长篇声明中表示,吉布尼曾“反复欺骗我们”;马蒂·拉思本“销毁了证据,并在宣誓后说谎”;一名法官称贝哈尔“带有偏见”;它要为“那些遭受宗教迫害和仇恨的人”发声,避免教会被吉布尼的“鼓动和偏执”所伤。)

吉布尼还指出,如今受到严重骚扰的并不是记者,而是拉思本等离开教会的人。拉思本告诉我,随着越来越多的人离开并谈论山达基教会,它不再有足够的资源来暗中盯紧所有批评者。他还认为,互联网令山达基教元气大伤,因为了解关于该教会的信息变得容易了许多——而且它许多所谓的秘密已经被公布在了网上,所有人都能看到。

“这里传达的讯息中,有一条就是,你无需再害怕山达基教,”赖特说。早该如此。

翻译:土土、陈柳

纽约时报中文网

26 Feb 11:48

《狼图腾》中的狼,与现实中的狼

by 红色皇后

本文作者:红色皇后

狼是最能引起人兴趣的动物之一,也许是因为人类这种动物的特性罢。演化把我们塑造为结群生活,善于奔跑,在空旷草原上生活的动物。我们热爱吃肉,合作猎捕大型动物,雄性把食物带回家庭,供给妻子和孩子。这一切都和狼是如此接近,有时候,甚至比黑猩猩和大猩猩,这些正牌的人类亲戚,更让我们感到亲切。

狼又处在一个尴尬的位置。它太像人,我们情不自禁要将它"拟人化",同时也太像狗了,让人类想起,我们(至少是在面子上)不愿做狗,于是,人更加神往狼。

小说《狼图腾》,似乎就是在神往情绪下诞生的。思想主题姑且不论,但对狼的描写,并不符合现实中的狼——狼和狗并非对立的两极,而是同一个物种受到了先人不同的影响,又被后人贴上了不同的标签。真实的狼故事已经足够漂亮,不需要人类的修饰为之添彩。

【在雪地上睡着的欧亚狼。图片来源:Arkive.org】

狼狗同源,食性也没有那么大差异

狗吃人屎,是人的奴才;狼吃人尸,是送蒙古人的灵魂上腾格里的神灵。——《狼图腾》

但其实狼和狗本是一家。狗经过了驯化,变得能够和人相处,狼则没有;但二者依然保留了众多的相似之处,其中就包括食性。

在他的《动物和植物在家养条件下的变异》里,达尔文提出了狗起源的问题。他列举了多种犬科动物,指出它们跟家犬的许多相似之处,狼只是其中一员。狗的品种如此繁多,而且长相各不一样,我们一直怀疑它是多种动物驯化,以及互相杂交的成果。经常被怀疑到的动物是胡狼,包括亚洲胡狼(Canis aureus)、侧纹胡狼(Canis adustus)、黑背胡狼(Canis mesomelas)三个物种,它们和狼同样归为犬属,比狼瘦小,吃腐肉,也攻击弱小的活物,埃及的阿努比斯神长着胡狼的头。

推后一百年,动物行为学家康拉德•劳伦兹(Konrad Lorenz)也偏爱胡狼,他认为最早的狗来自亚洲胡狼,之后才掺进狼的血统,狗的性格,取决于哪种动物的基因更多一点。不幸的是,这位获诺贝尔奖的伟人,富有才华的科普作家,在这个问题上大错特错了。

如今,基因技术的发展使我们可以解决许多悬案。狼的基因与狗的相似程度,比其他犬科动物(包括胡狼)都要近得多。家犬被归为狼的一个亚种,是很合理的。狗的祖先是狼,大方向已经确定,但细节上争议还是很多。狗到底是在什么时候驯化的,由哪里的狼驯化的,科学家们还是各执一词,争端激烈。

随便举个例子。在2013年,有四项关于狗起源的基因研究结果,发表在重要的科技类期刊上,这四篇论文分别来自不同的国家和单位。瑞典乌普萨拉大学的结果,认为狗是在1万年前驯化于中东地区,这里是文明的摇篮,最早产生农业的地方。中国昆明动物研究所认为,狗是在3.2万年前,驯化于中国南部。芬兰图尔库大学的看法是,狗在1.88-3.21万年前,驯化于欧洲。美国芝加哥大学的结果是,狗的驯化历史有1.1-1.6万年,但驯化成狗的那批狼已经灭绝,我们已见不到了。

以人的眼光看来,真正的狼的食性远非 "高贵",与狗没有太大的区别。虽然狼最喜欢的猎物是落单或者受伤的大中型动物,但条件不好时也不会挑食。各种小兽、小鸟、蜥蜴、青蛙都是常见食物,甚至大号昆虫也能见到。连腐肉都不会拒绝,大部分捕食者都不介意偶尔吃点儿尸体。

【一群欧亚狼正在食用一只死掉的家养绵羊。图片来源:Arkive.org】

著名的野生动物学家乔治•夏勒,检查过昆仑山新疆地区的许多狼粪便,内含物有80%是旱獭(Marmota spp.)的残骸。虽然长得又胖又笨,旱獭属于松鼠科,是鼠家的大号成员。内蒙古的赛罕乌拉自然保护区,狼的食物里,最多的是草兔(Lepus capensis)。实际上,在《狼图腾》里也写到,狼捕食黄鼠、野兔,吃腐烂的尸体,被遗弃的"流浪"狗,同样靠这些东西为生。这本书在人为扩大狼与狗的鸿沟同时,不自觉地也彰显了两者的相似之处。

狼的食谱里还有素菜,比如越橘、蓝莓、苹果和梨等水果,塞罕乌拉保护区的狼粪便里发现了完整的叶子,说明狼也吃"野菜"。如果狼活动范围内有人类居住地,还会加上活家畜、家畜屠宰残余、剩饭菜和其他生活垃圾。事实上,解释狼如何被驯化的理论之一就是,史前的狼主动靠近人,就是为了吃早期人类聚居地附近的垃圾。

至于不吃同类的说法,更是无稽之谈——寒冬时狼不但会吃同类尸体,还会杀死落单的狼并吃掉,甚至是自己狼群的成员死掉,也免不了成为"牺牲品"。

而狗的食粪行为,更是犬科乃至许多其他动物里都会出现的行为,狼、郊狼、豺、狐狸等都不会"幸免"。食粪行为有时是正常的、有目的的,有时则反映出生理或心理的问题,而且经过训练通常都可以矫正。

其实,以上这些才是真正"正常"的动物行为。动物摄食是有取舍的,但它们的标准并不是从天而降的人类道德,而是能量开支和收入的平衡。正如蛎鹬会选取中等大小的贝壳而抛弃太大的(难撬)和太小的(肉少),狼也会根据环境选择食物的种类,人类的好恶,并不会影响狼的行为。

蒙古的狼,也是狼亚种大家族里的普通成员

蒙古狼是世界上最大最厉害的狼,配出的狼狗准错不了。——《狼图腾》

其实"蒙古狼"和其他地区的灰狼是一家。全世界40个狼亚种里,体型最大的并不在蒙古,而可能在阿拉斯加的基奈半岛。

蒙古地区有两种狼分布,一种是灰狼的指名亚种欧亚狼(Canis lupus lupus)。这种狼体型较大,但分布极为广泛,横跨整个欧亚大陆,谈不上蒙古特有。另一种则是藏狼(Canis lupus chanco),体型偏小,分布范围也涵盖西藏、印度、中亚、蒙古、华北等地。有些研究者认为藏狼应该归入欧亚狼之中。不管怎么说,都是一个物种,基因可以交流,硬要分出个大小其实没有太多意义。

【不同亚种的狼,大小差异可以很大。图片来源:Relic Lore】

而与其执着于给生物排座次,去观察它们自己的多样性要有趣得多。譬如,狼的毛色之多彩,在非家养的大型哺乳动物中,可能只有人类能与之相比——藏狼一般是棕色或棕灰色,偶尔有黑色脊背,或毛色发红的狼,也有近乎黑的深色,和近乎白的浅色。把范围扩大到整个中国,不同地区的狼,不仅毛色有差,毛的厚度也各有不同,北方的狼需要更厚密暖和的毛皮袄。

反过来说,这些多样性最后又会汇聚成一个单一的物种;在众多的中文作品中,形形色色,或善或恶,或愚或智的狼,其实本出一家。从《聊斋》里吃了屠夫一刀的狼,到狼图腾里的狼神,从吃掉祥林嫂儿子的狼,到大灰狼罗克,只是人类给同一物种赋予的种种"狼格(人格)"而已。

另外值得一提的是,狼狗混血绝非一个好主意。

狼和狗的主要性格差异有三点:狼在性成熟之后会伺机攻击"主人"或同伴寻求统治地位,狼面对儿童或受伤的人会激发猎杀本能,狼会确立明确的领地并坚决保卫其所有物。这三点对人来说都不是好消息——这也是为什么我们驯化狗的时候,剔除了这些特征。混血是一场赌博,实际上无法确定后代会表现得更接近哪一方,等于埋下一颗定时炸弹;一旦条件合适爆发,后果将十分严重。

威风八面的"狼王",只是人的想象

狼群中一头被大狼们簇拥着的白狼王……射散出一股凶傲的虎狼之威。整个狼群不下三四十头。——《狼图腾》

狼群是个等级森严的社会,大致可划分七个台阶的地位层次。第一等当然是狼酋,第二等是出类拔萃的大公狼,第三等是成年母狼,第四等是老狼,第五等是狼崽,第六等是智力低下的或有某种缺陷的草狼,第七等是谁都瞧不起的贱狼。——沈石溪《残狼灰满》

这里引用另一部描写狼的畅销小说,并不是要显示狼群社会的真实情况,而是反映许多人想象中狼群的模样。请注意,这里对于狼群的描写,与人的社会何等相似。

但比起人类,大部分动物的社会结构其实相当简单,对于狼王及其"臣民"的想象,可能是将人的社会结构强加到动物身上的结果。

一个普通的狼群,包括一对狼夫妻和它们的孩子,数量大多不超过个位数。也可能有一些外来者,例如狼夫妻的亲戚,或者夫妻一方死掉,外来的狼取而代之。有时2-3个狼家庭共同活动,在美国阿拉斯加,曾经观察到一群36只狼,算是一个极大的狼群。

2001年在黄石公园拍到的一群狼,一共11只。图片来源:National Park Service

这个规模比许多人想象中来得小。值得注意的是,我们靠狩猎和采集为生的祖先,生活在比狼群大得多的群体里(几十到百来人),农业出现以后,人类的社会更是大大膨胀了。人对狼群规模的观念,算不算是"以人之心度之"呢?

地位最高的是大公狼,其次是他的太太,动物行为学上称做主雄(alpha male)和主雌(alpha female),也就是所谓的狼王(或头狼)和他的夫人。狼王这个词杀气腾腾,让人想到一只凶暴的猛兽,以铁腕统治一支钢一样的军队。实际上他平时非常低调。唯一能把他和其他狼区别出来的办法,是看尾巴。地位高的狼尾巴举高,平行于地面,地位低的狼尾巴下垂,除此以外,狼王的"王霸之气"简直没有一点表现。

狼王和王后真正的特权是繁殖,如果狼群里有外来的成年大狼,想要结婚生子,可能会大打一场。但小狼一至两岁,就要离开狼群,去寻找外来的异性做配偶,繁殖权非狼王和王后莫属,也就没有了争夺的理由。在野外,大多数时间里,狼群是非常和平的,甚至比圈养的狼还要安静(动物园的狼是从各处抓来的,彼此都是生面孔,容易相互打斗,输了也没法逃亡)。显然,狼的凶猛还不足以满足人类对野蛮和强大的幻想。

狼群的日常,其实也似曾相识

黄黄、伊勒和三条小狗一涌而上,抢舔二郎嘴巴上的油水,多日不见油腥,狗们馋肉都馋疯了。——《狼图腾》

货比货该扔,狗的不幸是,它的身边有狼这样一个参照物。与狼相比,经过驯化的狗显得过于忠顺,甚至"堕落"。但无法否认,狼与狗存在着密不可分的联系。《狼图腾》小说一再强调狼与狗的差别,人为将其扩大成鸿沟。然而,在小说无关主旨的闲笔上,却展示出狼与狗的相同处。

捕食归来的狗和看家狗相互舔嘴,这不止是馋人家吃过的肉,同样的行为也出现在狼身上。在地位高于自己的强狼面前,下级狼表示顺服的"礼节"有两种:一种是躺倒,让"长官"嗅它的生殖器或腹股沟,另一种是兴冲冲地走上来,一边摇尾巴,一边舔上级狼的嘴——狗继承了狼的行为,所以这两套动作我们都不陌生。

虽然狼的行礼并非文化,而是本能,但它与人类的礼节有微妙的相似之处。"舔嘴"来源于小狼崽向父母"乞食"的动作(后面还要讲到)。作为服从礼的舔嘴,只剩下社交的功能,不再具备原先"获得营养"的作用。动物学家劳伦兹把这种行为的进化过程,称之为"仪式化"。这有点像人类世界里,铜鼎变成祭祀的道具,让人忘记它原本是用来煮肉的。

狼的社交行为,经常和"吃"联系在一起。这一点颇像人类。例如,食物资源的分配,反映地位的高低。如果狼群抓到大猎物,足够大家吃饱,无论地位高低,所有的狼都可以一起进食。如果猎物小,狼多肉少,狼父母可以优先进食,然后才轮到半大的少年狼。

幼小的狼崽在狼群中的地位低于少年狼,但在吃的方面,父母对它们非常照顾。母狼在洞里养育小狼崽,公狼非常热情地承担起给妻儿送饭的工作,把猎物肉衔回来,或者吐出胃里半消化的碎肉喂给母狼和狼崽。甚至自己吃不饱,也要分食给太太。稍大一点的狼崽,父母出猎归来,就会迎上去舔大狼的嘴喙,让父母吐出"肉糜"。

虽然用餐时的狼分成三六九等,狼对于自己"碗里的肉"也有一定的所有权。进食的狼面前半米,是它的私有地带。即使是狼王来抢它嘴边的肉,无论它地位高低,都会凶相毕露地护食(虽然无法保证不被抢走)。这也很容易使人想到《狼图腾》中的小狼。

一个有趣的细节是,在《狼图腾》电影拍摄中,一只人工喂养的狼曾做出"躺下"和"舔嘴"的行为。它针对的不是狼王,而是电影导演——正如我们把狼当成穿毛皮的人,狼也把人当成裸狼。到底谁错得更多一点呢?很难说。

拓展阅读

《狼图腾》的狼,到底能驯不能驯?

在虚构中寻找真实,是脑袋有问题吗?

关于

本文首发于果壳网-科学人栏目:《狼图腾》中的狼,与现实中的狼,编辑:Ent

文章题图:arkive.org

25 Feb 10:39

Four Forces Watch: Coastal Incomes

by Arnold Kling

Derek Thompson reports,

For Flint, Detroit, Youngstown, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, the demise of manufacturing, steel production, and other off-shored blue-collar work have gutted these foundries of good middle-class jobs.

Pointer from Mark J. Perry, who provides two interesting tables and much interesting analysis, including

Not surprisingly, more than half (11) of the top 20 metro areas with the highest median incomes for Americans ages 18-34 in 1980 were in Midwest or Rust Belt states (Flint, Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Youngstown, Cleveland, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Grand Rapids and Cincinnati). By 2009-2013, only three of the top 20 metro areas by income for young Americans were in Midwest or Rust Belt states: Minneapolis-St. Paul, Chicago and Des Moines (and none of those cities have a strong manufacturing base), and almost all of the top 20 metros by income for young Americans were in East Coast or West Coast states (San Jose, San Francisco, Washington, DC, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Seattle, etc.).

The force that this illustrates is the New Commanding Heights. As income rises, the demand for manufactured goods tapers off, and much more of the increased income is spent on education and health care.

21 Feb 09:04

How much does state population size predict state inequality?

by Tyler Cowen

From StatisticalIdeasBlogspot:

Of the top 10 populated states, 5 were also among the top 10 “unequal” states: CA, TX, FL, NY, IL.  Of the 10 least populated states, 4 were also among the 10 least “unequal” states: VT, AK, ME, HI.  So instead of 4 overlapping states, we have a significantly higher 9 (5+4) states overlapping.  Additionally, there are no crossover states (e.g., a highly “unequal” less-populated state, nor a less “unequal” highly-populated state).  The easy math (9>4 with no crossovers) shows something, and it’s not structural inequality.

The only common variable between the selection of the top 10 (and in the selection of the bottom 10) populated states is just population size itself!

There is also a useful map at the link.

21 Feb 04:55

Jonah Goldberg Asks Who is a Science Denier

by Arnold Kling

He writes,

Why does the Left get to pick which issues are the benchmarks for “science”? Why can’t the measure of being pro-science be the question of heritability of intelligence? Or the existence of fetal pain? Or the distribution of cognitive abilities among the sexes at the extreme right tail of the bell curve? Or if that’s too upsetting, how about dividing the line between those who are pro- and anti-science along the lines of support for geoengineering? Or — coming soon — the role cosmic rays play in cloud formation? Why not make it about support for nuclear power? Or Yucca Mountain? Why not deride the idiots who oppose genetically modified crops, even when they might prevent blindness in children?

Actually, he is quoting something he wrote three years ago.

The occasion for recycling it is the litmus test that reporters are applying to Scott Walker, namely whether or not be believes in evolution. Can we imagine a reporter asking Elizabeth Warren whether she believes that people at the extreme right tail of the distribution for math skills are more likely to be male than female, and using that as a litmus test for whether she believes in science?

In the case of economics, I think that we should not view “science” as binary, in the sense of truths that are close to 100 percent certain and you believe them or not. Rather, there is stronger evidence to favor some propositions than others. Confirmation bias takes the form of grasping at straws when you want to believe something that runs counter to most evidence (such as refusing to believe that the minimum wage reduces employment or that extending unemployment benefits raises the unemployment rate). Or it takes the form of taking something that has a reasonable probability of being true and believing it with certainty (such as the claim that the Fed caused the recession).

21 Feb 04:49

The causes of the Bengal famine

by Tyler Cowen

The 1943 Bengal famine has been cited by Amartya Sen and others as a classic example of market failure.  But in his new (and excellent) book Eating Dead People is Wrong, and Other Essays on Famine, Its Past, and Its Future, Cormac Ó Gráda devotes an entire chapter to that episode and comes away with a different impression.  Here is a summary sentence:

The 1943-44 famine has become paradigmatic as an “entitlements famine,” whereby speculation born of greed and panic produced an “artificial” shortage of rice, the staple food.  Here I have argued that the lack of political will to divert foodstuffs from the war effort rather than speculation in the sense outlined was mainly responsible for the famine.

I will add to that price controls were imposed once the famine was underway, and campaigns were conducted against hoarders.

In the book I also very much enjoyed the discussion of the 1946-47 famine in Moldova, which apparently involved a good deal of cannibalism.

20 Feb 17:11

The military that is German

by Tyler Cowen

The German army has faced a shortage of equipment for years, but the situation has recently become so precarious that some soldiers took matters into their own hands.

On Tuesday, German broadcaster ARD revealed that German soldiers tried to hide the lack of arms by replacing heavy machine guns with broomsticks during a NATO exercise last year. After painting the wooden sticks black, the German soldiers swiftly attached them to the top of armored vehicles, according to a confidential army report which was leaked to ARD.

…To make matters worse, the broom-equipped German soldiers belong to a crucial, joint NATO task force and would be the first to be deployed in case of an attack.

There is more here.

16 Feb 16:04

美国发布商用无人机使用规定草案


梅根•墨菲华盛顿报道

美国监管机构发布了备受期待的规定,对商用无人机的使用加以管理,允许它们与其他飞行器共用天空。不过,该规定要求运营者确保无人机飞行在视线以内,并要求无人机只能在白天使用。

这一拟议中的规定周日由美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)发布。该规定适用于重量在55磅(合25千克)以下的小型无人飞机。FAA认证的无人机被限制飞行在500英尺(合150米)的最大高度以下,并禁止在人群上空飞行。