Jim Ellis

Every week on Monday morning , the Council and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week's question: Is It Time For A Third Party?


Fausta's Blog : Hell, no!


Bookworm Room : It's time to take over the GOP, but not to divide it so that the Democrats can conquer.

The Glittering Eye :No. Duverger's Law is the rule-of-thumb in political science that says that two party systems ultimately emerge in plurality rule systems with single member districts while proportional representation systems tend to be multi-party.

In other words the conditions for a third party can't be favorable without electoral reform.

I think we're either nearing a Constitutional Convention or an actual rebellion.


The Razor : Only if it replaces the Republican Party.


JoshuaPundit : I see the majority of the American people as being between a rock and a hard place.

On the one hand, the Democrats have truly become what Barack Obama and George Soros wanted to create - an ultra Left, corrupt socialist party utterly opposed to most of the Constitution with suicidal views on  national security and illegal migration. And for good measure, a nice side order of fiscal irresponsibility, ultra high taxation, and exacerbated racial unrest.

It is exactly the kind of party a corrupt snake like Mrs. Clinton was born to lead. And the fact that someone with her record and moral character has at least a 50% chance of polluting the Oval Office with her presence is a grim testimony to the state of our politics and our Fourth Estate.

On the other hand, we have the Republican Party, whose leadership long ago ceased to represent anyone except itself, let alone the people whom dutifully voted for it and gave it majorities in congress that were marketed to them as what was needed to stop the dangerous decline of the country. Here, we have a whole infrastructure of politicians and elites who essentially regard the people they supposedly represent as a damned nuisance who should shut up and simply get behind whatever they've decided this year's product with an 'R' on it is going to be.

The whole situation resembles nothing so much as a famous Simpson's cartoon where two space aliens, Kang and Kodos seek to conquer and enslave America by posing as the two presidential candidates:



As far as the GOP goes, it's gotten so toxic that the Republican establishment is signalling openly that if the peasants are so uppity as to pick Ted Cruz, Donald Trump or anyone else who's unwilling to go along with their agenda, they'll try and sandbag them by having a brokered convention to pick one of their own chosen ones. And if that doesn't work, they're actually prepared to do whatever they can to throw the election to the Democrats and try and use the old tired formula again in 2020.

So, a third party? Lots of pros and cons.

The way the system is set up, it's very tough to get on the ballot in all fifty states let alone set up the infrastructure to compete nationally. The obvious historical precedent is that of the Whigs, who imploded over the slavery issue and gave birth to the Republicans. The fledgling Republican Party lost their first election badly,in 1854. They won the next one, in 1860, but it's not usually remembered that there were five parties competing that year and the GOP squeaked by on a minority vote.

Another con is the obvious one...that splitting the Republican Party almost guarantees that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, with all that entails.

The pros? How about the possibility of no choice? Without an open, vociferous revolt, I don't see the Republican party being taken away from those whom now hold it. Either Trump or Ted Cruz would have to have such an overwhelming amount of delegates as to make a brokered convention impossible, and there's no way of forcing people whom despise them and their supporters to work to get a Cruz or a Trump elected. At best, many of them may sit on their hands and do little or nothing and at worse they will simply vote for Mrs. Clinton as more than one of them have suggested.

Is it possible to win the White House without their support? It all depends on how many of them dial out, how fed up the American people are, how successful outright voter fraud is and how the campaign itself goes. These things can hinge on small events. The way I see it, at this point in time Mrs. Clinton has a probable 237 electoral votes going in, including the entire West Coast, Hawaii, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and all of New England except perhaps New Hampshire. And that assumes that the Democrats don't also take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin,Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia or North Carolina. Pennsylvania and either Michigan, North Carolina or Virginia alone give her the winning number of 270. It isn't an impossible map in 2016, but it's no picnic. And there's a distinct possibility it may be our last real election as a Republic.

I'm not trying to be discouraging here. The map can get better depending on events, the GOP elephant might pull together and rouse itself for one more charge with the first real conservative candidate since Ronaldus Maximus (perhaps with a more 'moderate' VP as a sop to the Establishment, which is usually how these things get done). And we maybe able to start rebuilding the country again.

But if the GOP implodes because the establishment tries to sabotage a conservative candidate, or because they succeed one way or the other in giving us a Kang or Kodos choice, a third party isn't a choice. It's a necessity.

Greg Aydt, Rhymes With Right : I'm starting to think yes -- and I say this as someone who has spent the last 35 years as an active Republican and the last 15 as an elected member of my county Republican Executive Committee.

Let's look at things. The Democrats have moved so far left that they have become Euro-socialists even as the Euro-socialists move to the right because their experiment has been failing for some time. The Republicans are on the verge of being taken over by latter-day Know-Nothings seeking to close the borders, impose religious tests for office and (in some cases) proposing secession -- an existential threat that rivals Watwrgatw. So tell me -- where is there room for those of us who occupy the center-right that was exemplified by Ronald Reagan? I'm beginning to wonder if there needs to be some new vehicle for the sane center of the United States.

The problem, of course, consists in two realities.

First, the two parties have rigged our nation's election laws to keep third parties marginalized by limiting ballot access. The major parties have automatic access to the ballot, while everyone else faces onerous signature or financial requirements to do so.

Second, in our system it is virtually impossible for more than two parties to thrive in the long term. In the last 25 presidential elections there have been four major efforts at running a major third party candidate for president. Each of those parties has not only failed to win, but has failed to even field a significant candidate four years later as one or the other major parties shifted enough to absorb most of the insurgent party's voters.

What I guess I'm saying is that there is little chance of such a party making a go of it in the long term. The best that could be hoped for is that one or the other party might be dragged away from the ideological precipice on which they stand.


GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD : No and no. The third part meme sounds great perhaps from a purely partisan view (naturally), yet it's a path to defeat and the inauguration of HRC as the 45th President of the United States.


Laura Rambeau Lee,Right Reason : Unfortunately the time has run out for a third party to be an effective option for the 2016 presidential race. What we have today are essentially two progressive big government parties. The Democrat Party exists to advance the socialist/communist agenda. The Republican Party is not much better and has lost all direction by trying to bring in non-conservatives they believe they need to win a majority. The party may be the friend of big business but they refuse to take a stand for the social issues and traditions of American culture which have made this country great.

After delivering a Republican House majority in 2010 and Senate majority in 2014 one would think the Republicans would acknowledge the hard work and commitment of the conservatives within the party and try to incorporate more of their values and address their issues. Instead we have been taken for granted and used to advance the power of the GOP. In 2012 they ran Mitt Romney against the wishes of most conservatives and failed to defeat President Obama, which should have been easy considering the actions and scandals piling up during his first term. They continue to treat conservatives as a small inconsequential group within the party even though we have been their staunchest supporters.

Since I do not believe a third party is a viable option at this time, we conservatives have to demand the Republican Party accept the candidate we choose; a candidate who can communicate with all Americans and show them where we as a country have gone off course and how he or she will effect true change by restoring American pride, traditions, and culture. Obama promised hope and change but people are realizing the change he promised was not what they envisioned, and many have lost hope. We need someone who can help restore to Americans their spirit of ingenuity, self-determination, freedom, and independence. We need someone who will return government to its rightful place in America; a government that serves the people.

  Well, there you have it.

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Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) criticized President Obama for his remarks about Israel during his speech before the United Nations on Wednesday’s broadcast of “The Real Story” on the Fox News Channel.

“It really was disappointing to see the president use the platform of the United Nations today to essentially call out our most cherished ally in the region...we have no greater ally in the region than Israel. And as we are trying to bring other countries into this coalition to beat down ISIS and this new organization Khorasan in northern Iraq and in Syria, I think it's vitally important that the world knows that America stands with our allies, including our most cherished ally, Israel” he stated. Pence did add that American airstrikes against Khorasan and ISIS on Monday were a “decisive action” that he supported.

He later declined to say whether he was thinking of running for president in 2016, and instead emphasized the need for clear action against ISIS, saying “I know in my heart of hearts the depth of the tragedy that we're witnessing on television screens. It's absolutely important that we act. I think it's important for leaders at every level in our country to speak clearly and forcefully now. America needs to lead from the front. We need to stand with our allies beginning with Israel in the region, and we need to do everything necessary to defeat ISIS and defeat this real threat to our country.”

Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter @IanHanchett

Weekly Address: Reducing Carbon Pollution in Our Power Plants The White House (blog) In this week's address, President Obama discussed new actions by the Environmental Protection Agency to cut dangerous carbon pollution, a plan that builds on the efforts already taken by many states, cities and companies. These new commonsense ... and more »

President Barack Obama paid tribute on Monday to fallen U.S. military men and women during a Memorial Day ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery that highlighted a veterans' care scandal that has engulfed his presidency in recent weeks.

A Disney World electrician is accused of possessing child pornography.

Sen. Marco Rubio helped Sen. Ted Cruz in a filibuster-like speech in bashing Obamacare. Is it all about health care or 2016?

This month a couple million students graduated from colleges around the country.

If you’re one of them, and through a combination of luck and vigorous initiative-taking have landed your first “real” job, congratulations!

You may be feeling nervous about starting this new job, and that’s completely normal. The transition from student to professional can be a rough one. In college, your time was clearly structured, and the expectations pretty easy to understand. More importantly, you were basically only responsible for you; if you decided to slack off, skip class, or phone-in assignments, you only hurt yourself (and maybe your tuition-paying parents).

Now you have a supervisor, a team of co-workers, and a whole company relying on you and the work you do every day. If you mess up or flake out, you burden other people and can negatively affect a business and the lives of the people that business employs.

In addition to looking out for others, you still have your own future to consider. The economy continues to putter along, and the job market is highly competitive. If you’ve gotten a good job, you’re probably eager to hold onto it and move up in the world. Yet studies have shown that a quarter of new hires don’t make it even a year, and almost half get the axe within 18 months. It’s no wonder that, as psychologist Meg Jay puts it, “Twentysomethings who don’t feel anxious and incompetent at work are usually overconfident or underemployed.”

Despite the sobering statistics, if you keep a few things in mind, you’ll do just fine. Beyond that, you can be a great employee who adds value to not only the company, but to the people around you that you work with every day.

With that in mind, the first impression you make at your new job counts for a lot and can help set you up for future success. To hit the ground running from day one, we offer the following suggestions and advice.

How to Have a Stellar First Day

The first day at a new job can be nerve-racking. It’s like the first day of school. You’re anxious about meeting new people, wondering if you’ll be able to find your way around, and hoping people will like you and that you’ll fit in. You don’t want to be the next Dwight Schrute.

You probably won’t be tackling big projects right off the bat, so your new boss and co-workers won’t be able to evaluate your work yet. As Emily Bennington and Skip Lineberg, authors of Effective Immediately, put it, you’ll instead “be judged on some very visible, basic parameters,” such as:

• Did you show up on time?
• What are you wearing?
• Do you display confidence and charisma?
• Do you seem overwhelmed or ready for a challenge?
• How well do you communicate?
• What personal items did you put in your office?

Here’s how to be intentional about how you present yourself, ace this first basic set of criteria, and get your new job off on the best possible foot.

Do your research. Before you set foot inside your new workplace, you’ll want to have done as much research about your company and how it operates as possible. As we’ll mention below, there’s a lot you’ll “investigate” and learn in the coming weeks, but know as much as you can about this business and the key people who run it before your first day. Google it up. This way you’ll avoid sticking your foot in your mouth about something right off the bat. Scan past press releases or articles about the company. Read every page on the website. See what they’re doing on social media. The amount of information you can find about your new company is probably more than you would have thought. Get at it!

Set out what you need the night before. The last thing you want to do is be late for your first day on the job, so make your morning routine and departure as smooth as possible by preparing the night before. Make sure your shirt is ironed and shoes are shined. Lay out what you’re going to wear (this is easy if you have a “silent valet”!). Set two alarm clocks – not simply for practicality’s sake, but because knowing they’re both set will help you sleep better.

Brush up on your business etiquette. Business etiquette varies somewhat from social etiquette, and if you’ve only worked in food service or as a lifeguard thus far in your life, you’ll want to read up on how to be a gentleman at the office and avoid rubbing people the wrong way. Here’s our handy guide.

A quick note on cell phone etiquette: Most business places these days allow cell phone use, and many rely on it. On your first day, keep it in your pocket, and off. You’ll probably have mom, grandma, and your favorite gal texting or calling to wish you luck. You don’t want an impromptu ringing or vibrating interrupting a crucial piece of training. As time goes on, it’s more appropriate to glance at your phone or have it on your desk, but keep it tucked away when you first start.

Dress for success. When you meet your co-workers for the first time, they won’t have much to go on in sizing you up, and will look to what you’re wearing for clues to your personality (don’t judge them, you do it too). That’s why what you wear is such a big part of the first impression you make. You don’t want to dress in a way that makes you stand out – either too casually or too formally. If you got a glimpse of your co-workers when you were interviewed, that will have given you a clue to what the standard is. If you don’t have any idea, email your supervisor or HR person a few days before to ask what people usually wear. Then aim for an outfit that’s just a small notch up from the norm.

If you feel like the office dress code exists in a vague gray area between casual and formal and don’t know what to do, there are few get-ups more versatile and foolproof than a blazer, dress shirt, and tie. If people are dressed more formally, you’ll fit in fine. If you find that a more casual vibe prevails, simply lose the tie and jacket, and roll up your sleeves.

Aim to arrive ten minutes early. Again, you absolutely don’t want to be late on your first day. It can be a good idea to do a “dry run” of your commute in the week before your start day, especially if you’ll be taking public transportation. That way you’ll feel more comfortable about where you’re going and how long it takes to get there. Make sure to do your trial run at the same time you’ll actually be setting off on your first day of work in order to duplicate traffic conditions.

Because unexpected obstacles to getting to work may arise on the morning of your first day, aim to get there 10-15 minutes early. That way you have a built-in cushion if you are delayed; you don’t want to walk in all amped up from driving like a crazy man in a desperate race against time. If you do get there early, just take a moment to collect yourself in your car or in the restroom before making your way to your new boss’s office.

Carry yourself with confidence. You’re probably going to be nervous, but try to give off a relaxed and confident air. Think to yourself that in a competitive job market, you landed this position; you’ve got what it takes to succeed if you apply yourself and have a lot to offer. We know that even when we don’t feel a certain way, if we act like we do, our brains will catch up with our behavior; so act calm and collected, and you’ll soon feel that way too.

Take the initiative in introducing yourself. Your supervisor or boss may take you around to meet your new co-workers, but even if they do, they probably won’t introduce you to everyone. So take the initiative in meeting others yourself. Don’t put the onus on your co-workers; remember, you’re coming into their territory, not the other way around. One of the keys to success in your new job will be networking with others, building trust with your co-workers, and learning how to operate as a team – and that starts on the very first day.

It will never be easier to introduce yourself than it is now, as you’ve got a built-in opening line: “Hi, I’m ____, the new____.” You don’t have to have a long or deep conversation with your co-workers – they probably have plenty to do. But ask them things like what they do in their position and how long they’ve been on the job. Use what they have displayed in their office/cubicle as easy small talk fodder: “Are those your kids?” “Are you a big Bruins fan?”

In turn, be prepared for them to ask you about your major, where you graduated from, and your hometown. Try to think of short but memorable answers to these questions – remember, a good small talk artist offers up bits of info that their conversational partner can easily riff on.

Your new teammates will likely also ask what you’ll be doing in your new job. If you’re not sure about the answer to that latter question, Bennington and Lineberg recommend saying with a smile, “I’m not sure exactly what I’ll be working on yet, but I’m looking forward to getting started.”

Take notes. From loads of new names to where certain files are located, people are going to be dumping a whole lot of information on you from the word go. And it’s going to come in a rapid-fire, stream-of-consciousness way that’s not always going to be well-organized or easy to follow; a co-worker will add new tidbits each time they see something that reminds them of something to tell you. So carry a pocket notebook with you wherever you go and take copious notes. These notes will be invaluable to you later, and keep you from having to ask as many questions (not that questions are bad – see below – but the less you can interrupt people, the better). Also be sure to take notes on names and roles, and study them. Being able to recite people’s names right off the bat is an excellent way to build rapport.

How to Ace the First Week

Ask lots of questions. Your first couple of weeks on the job are a grace period where people will generally welcome, or at least be super patient with you asking as many questions as you want. After that time, their patience will gradually diminish as they begin to expect you to have a handle on things. So take advantage of this no-questions-barred time. When you’re confused or wondering about something, ask, and then put the answer down in your notebook.

But your questions shouldn’t simply be a “defense” mechanism for when you get stuck; they should also serve as a proactive way of getting to know your co-workers, supervisor, and the company and organization you now work for. When you first start a new job, there’s tons you don’t know, from office dynamics to business practices, yet you don’t know that you don’t know. It’s only after months pass that you can reflect and realize how little you understood about what goes on “below the surface.” So from the very first day, find out as much as you can about everything.

Questions for Your Boss/Supervisor

It’s good to get a handle on your boss’s managerial style from the get-go. It’s also essential to be as clear as possible on exactly what your responsibilities, roles, and projects are. So ask your supervisor things like:

• Do you prefer updates through face-to-face meetings, email, or voicemail?
• Do you like frequent check-ins, or do you like when people mostly work on their own?
• What are my responsibilities?
• What are the priority levels for those different tasks?
• What is your metric for success on those tasks?
• How do my responsibilities fit into the organization?
• What are my co-workers’ responsibilities and how do they relate to mine?

Questions for Your Co-Workers

Your co-workers may be glad to have you aboard, but at least some of them may be a little wary of you; they wonder if you’ll upset the good mojo and balance they have going on or if you’ll upstage them. So you want to build rapport and trust by asking questions that show a genuine curiosity about them and how they do things and a commitment to adding value to the team:

• Tell me about your experience working on X project.
• How did you handle Y problem in the past?
• What has worked well in handling a B situation like this?
• How do my responsibilities overlap with yours? What things do you like to head up and where might we work together?
• What qualities do you like to see in a co-worker?
• What are some things that I or my department can do to assist what you’re doing?

Listen, observe, and research. Your learning should not be limited only to questions you ask of your supervisor and co-workers. You should also constantly be observing, keeping your ear to the ground, and researching your company in order to get a handle on the big picture of the business you work for. The more you understand the company, the better job you can do in your role, and the more value you can add. Here are some questions the authors of Sink or Swim suggest finding the answers to:

• What does your company sell, how do they sell it, and what goes into creating its products and services?
• Who is the competition? What are they doing to give themselves an edge?
• What is your company doing to stay ahead of the competition?
• What are the trends for the industry, both past and present?
• What is the history of the company? How have their offerings changed over time, and what influenced this change in direction?
• What direction is the company moving in and why? What’s being phased in or phased out?
• Who are the key individuals in the hierarchy and what are their roles?

Keeping yourself educated on all these questions is something you should continue to do throughout your time with the company.

Decorate your space. Adding a few personal effects to your cubicle/office not only gives your space some character and makes it feel a little cozier, it also provides your co-workers jumping off points to start a conversation with you, just as you used their knickknacks to make small talk with them. Keep things appropriate and tasteful and add some photos and decorations that reflect your interests and hobbies.

Set up a calendar. If you didn’t organize your time at all in college, now’s the time to start doing it. Use a calendar – whether of the paper or cyber variety. Write down all your training sessions, phone calls, and meeting times. Put down your deadlines for projects, and break those down into milestones you want to hit along the way.

Review your calendar at least three times a day: first thing in the morning so you know what’s on the agenda for the day, right before lunch to review what your afternoon holds, and before you go home to plant the next day’s itinerary in your brain. You may also have shared calendars with your department and/or supervisor. Be sure to check those as well. Keep in mind your calendar will likely be visible to your boss and/or co-workers, so keep the items business-related. You don’t need your cousin’s birthday party showing up for all to see.

Create a to-do list notebook. Like calendars, to-do lists are an easy but highly effective way to organize your tasks. There are a ton of different formats and styles of to-do lists; this is something people nearly fetishize. So search the net for a way that makes sense to you, or simply write things down and cross them off when they’re done. Worked for Gramps!

Don’t talk about how things used to be done at your old job. If this isn’t your first professional job, or you’ve had an internship in the same industry, don’t keep letting people know how you used to do things at your last job. Comparisons, even those that seem innocuous, can feel insulting to your new associates, annoy them, and put them on the defensive. It makes you seem more like a smug outsider than someone happy to be on a new team. You may come to find out that the way your new employer does things is actually better. If not, the time to suggest a change will come after you’ve been on the job awhile, paid your dues, and earned the respect of your co-workers.

Send your first Friday Update. A good suggestion Bennington and Lineberg offer is sending your boss a weekly update every Friday. The Friday Update is a short email that “functions to communicate your progress and the status of your current projects and tasks.” Here’s what they recommend including in the update:

• Accomplishments this week
• Challenges or stumbling blocks (areas where you need direction or input)
• Noteworthy opportunities, suggestions, and insights
• Issues that need your boss’s input or approval
• Your schedule and goals for the coming week

To make this task easier, start a draft of your Friday Update on Monday and add to it as the week goes on. Then you won’t have to spend time on Friday when you’re already mentally spent trying to remember what you did. Your supervisor/boss will appreciate being in the loop about where you’re at with things, what’s going well, and what you may need help with. As an added bonus, by updating them regularly, instead of only when you have problem, they won’t come to associate you only with headaches.

So what happens if you’ve been at your job for a little while, and you feel like you’ve already screwed up on a few of these points? Fear not! You can change your ways any day you decide to. Start sending those Friday Updates tomorrow. If you haven’t met all your co-workers, there’s no better time than now. “You know, I can’t believe I haven’t had the chance to meet you yet, my name is _____.” Been struggling with keeping your tasks organized? Bring a notebook in tomorrow and get on track. Be encouraged that it’s easier to right the ship with a job than it is many other things in life. Start working hard tomorrow, and you’ll be set in no time.

Down the road we’ll discuss some tactics to being successful beyond that first week and keeping a job you love.

 What are your tips for acing your first day and first week at a new job? Share with us in the comments!

______________

Sources:

Effective Immediately: How to Fit In, Stand Out, and Move Up at Your First Real Job by Emily Bennington and Skip Lineberg

Sink or Swim! New Boss. New Job. 12 Weeks to Get It Right by Milo Sindell and Thuy Sindell