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04 Nov 00:27

How a German Manufacturing Company Set Up Its Analytics Lab

by Niklas Goby
PM Images/Getty Images

Over the past few years, most businesses have come to recognize that the ability to collect and analyze the data they generate has become a key source of competitive advantage.

ZF, a global automotive supplier based in Germany, was no exception. Digital startups had begun producing virtual products that ZF did not know how to compete against, and engineers in logistics, operations, and other functions were finding that their traditional approaches couldn’t handle the complex issues they faced. Some company executives had begun to fear they were in for their own “Kodak moment” – a fatal disruption that could redefine their business and eliminate overnight advantages accumulated over decades. With automotive analysts forecasting major changes ahead in mobility, they began to think that the firm needed a dedicated lab that focused entirely on data challenges.

But how?

At the time one of us, Niklas, a data scientist for ZF, was pursuing a PhD part-time at the University of Freiburg. Niklas took the first step and recruited his advisors at the university, Dirk Neumann and Tobias Brandt, to help them set up a lab for the company. This gave ZF access to top-notch expertise in data analytics and the management of information systems.

The hardest part was figuring out how the lab would work. After all, industrial data laboratories are a fairly new phenomenon– you can’t just download a blueprint. However, after a number of stumbles, we succeeded in winning acceptance for the lab and figured out a number of best practices that we think are broadly applicable to almost any data lab.

  1. Focus on the Right Internal Customers

ZF had dozens of departments filled with potentially high-impact data-related projects. Although we were tempted to tackle many projects across the entire company, we realized that to create visibility within a 146,000-employee firm, we had to focus on the most promising departments and projects first.

But how would we define “most promising”? As the goal of the data lab is to create value by analyzing data, we initially focused on the departments that generate the most data. Unfortunately, this didn’t narrow it down a whole lot. Finance, Logistics, Marketing, Sales, as well as Production and Quality all produced large amounts of data that could be interesting for data science pilot projects.

However, we knew from experience that the lowest hanging fruits for high-impact projects in a manufacturing company like ZF would be in Production and Quality. For years, ZF’s production lines had been connected and controlled by MES and ERP systems, but the data they generated had yet to be deeply tapped. We decided, therefore, to begin by concentrating on production issues, such as interruptions, rework rates, and throughput speed, where we could have an immediate impact.

  1. Identifying high-impact problems

Next, we selected those projects within Production and Quality that promised the highest-value outcomes. Our experience with the first few projects provided the basis for a project evaluation model, that we have continued to refine. The model contained a set of criteria along three dimensions that helped us to rank projects.

  • The problem to be solved had to be clearly defined. We could not adopt an abstract aim such as “improve production.” We needed a clear idea of how the analysis would create business value.
  • Hard data had to play a major role in the solution. And the data had to be available, accessible, and of good quality. We needed to shield the team from being flooded by business intelligence reporting projects.
  • The team had to be motivated. We gave project teams independence in choosing how they solved the problems they took on. And while we made the budget tight enough to enforce focus, we made sure that it was not so tight that the team couldn’t make basic allocation decisions on its own. To sustain motivation and enthusiasm, we priotitized projects that could be subdivided into smaller but more easily achieved goals.

While we eventually found it useful to assign a particular person to manage relations with the rest of the company, we kept the whole lab involved in project selection as the number of people working in the lab grew. This kept everyone informed, gave them a greater sense of personal responsibility, and implicitly expressed management’s appreciation for their professional judgment.

  1. Execution

The key risk was that the team would get lost in optimizing minor nuances of models and methods instead of solving the major problem. To avoid this, we usually limited the execution phase to three months, and gave the team the right to cancel its engagement.

This power turned out to be a game changer. Giving the team (including the domain expert) a “nuclear option” made them much more focused and goal-oriented. Once we put this rule in place, the number of change requests from the internal client dropped and the information initially provided tended to be more accurate and complete than before.

Of course, a team couldn’t cancel a project for arbitrary reasons. It needed to justify its decision, specifying conditions uncer which the project could be reopened. And while cancellations are contentious, they are sometimes necessary to free resources and to enforce progress toward a meaningful goal. In fact, introducing the ability to cancel projects actually increased the number of successfully completed projects.

Although a single team can work on multiple projects concurrently, particularly as waiting for responses from the client department can lead to delays, we generally found it best for the team to work on a single project at a time. We found that downtimes were better used by team members to learn new analytics methods and techniques, which continued to advance at a rapid pace.

We kept our internal customer up to date on our progress through regular reports and when possible by including their domain expert in the project team. If we could not so do, we looked for an arrangement – such as a weekly meeting – that allowed us to contact the domain expert directly without having to pass through gatekeepers.

Key Success Factors

Beyond gaining a general understanding of the data lab’s work as a three-stage process, we learned other lessons too. In particular, we found three more ingredients to be crucial to the data lab’s success:

  • Executive support. The confidence that the technology executive team placed in us was crucial to our success. Fortunately, they don’t seem to regret it: “Giving the data lab a great freedom to act independently, to try ideas and also to accept failures as part of a learning process, required trust. But the momentum it created is something we do not want to miss”, said Dr. Jürgen Sturm, Chief Information Officer.
  • The perspective of an outside authority. In this case, data scientists from the University of Freiburg, made a huge difference to the lab’s success. As Andreas Romer, ZF’s Vice President for IT Innovation, put it, “We no longer consider innovation to be an internal process at ZF. To safeguard our future success, we must look beyond the confines of our company, build up partnerships to learn and also to share knowledge and experiences.”
  • Domain experts. While data scientists brought knowledge of analytic methods and approaches to the project, their access to domain experts was essential. Such experts needed to be closely involved in answering domain-related questions that come up once the team is deeply engaged with the problem. In our experience, the capacity and availability of domain experts is the most common bottleneck blocking a data analytics project’s progress.

Problems solved

Three years on, we can say with confidence that the ZF Data Lab is a valuable addition to the company. With this dedicated resource, ZF has been able to solve problems that had stumped the company’s engineers for years. Here are two examples:

  • Broken grinding rings. A key source of stoppages in production line machinery, a breakdown can create a mess that may take hours to clean up. An internal client wanted to develop an early warning system that could indicate the probability of a future ring breakdown, but they had messy data, a weak signal (unclear data), and a highly unbalanced ground truth (because breakdowns happen only occasionally). Despite those limitations, we were able to create an algorithm that could detect imminent breaks 72% of the time – a far cry from five-decimal perfection but still enough to save the company thousands.
  • High power demand charges. Managing energy units to regulate energy demand at times of peak use is an effective way to reduce costs. Our goal was to develop an automated data-driven decision-making agent that provides action recommendations with the objective to lower load peaks. Working closely with the energy department, we were able to develop a working prediction model to avoid those high-demand surcharges. Following the model’s recommendations should reduce the peak load by 1-2 Megawatts, worth roughly $100k – $200k per year.

After growing for three years, the ZF Data Lab has become a kind of specialized R&D function within the company. It is a melting pot of ideas and technologies, producing and evaluating proofs-of-concept, and discarding approaches that don’t quite work. In the last analysis, the data lab is not only there to solve problems, but to help answer the biggest Big Data question of all: how will our company compete in this increasingly digital world?

06 Oct 00:07

On the relationship between inequality and entrepreneurship

by Mark D. Packard, Per L. Bylund

Research Summary

We reexamine and explore the modern view of inequality against entrepreneurial market process theories, which leads us to three key assertions. First, we question the validity of income inequality as a proxy for true inequality (i.e., inequality of individual well-being), observing nonlinearity between the two constructs. Second, we explore the entrepreneurial microfoundations of growing and shrinking inequality in market societies, arguing that individual inequality is primarily the outcome of abnormal gains from disequilibrating creative destructive processes. These shifts are temporary, however, as equilibrating (arbitraging) entrepreneurship competes away monopoly profits. Growing inequality trends, then, are seen primarily as the result of increasingly large, but also shorter, waves of creative destruction. Finally, we reconsider the issue of the injustice of inequality through this market process lens.

Managerial summary

We contribute three arguments to the debate over economic inequality. We are (or ought to be) concerned over differences in individual well-being, not income. Studies of income inequality can be misleading. We argue that a key and so far overlooked source of economic inequality is entrepreneurship. Disruptive entrepreneurship (via innovation) redistributes economic resources away from the present industry, reallocating them in a more unequal redistribution, with the successful disruptor capturing an unequal share of resources. Imitative entrepreneurship, however, tends to mitigate this inequality, competing away abnormal profits while expanding new products’ diffusion among consumers. Finally, we observe that economic inequality may not be as unjust as previously thought, and we caution against corrective policy that might inhibit entrepreneurship.

29 Oct 02:04

[매경 MBA] 창업 성공하려면…나의 고통과 고객의 불편을 매칭하라

# 미국의 성공한 스타트업인 달러셰이브클럽(DollarShaveClub)은 면도기 `구독 서비스`를 제공하는 업체다. 소비자는 마치 잡지를 구독하듯, 매달 같은 시점에 면도기를 배송받는다. 창업자인 마이클 더빈은 기존 면도기 가격이 터무니없이 비싼 데 `분노`해 회사를 창업..


25 Dec 02:06

The Ideas that Shaped Management in 2013

by Katherine Bell

It’s always tempting at this time of year to try to make a definitive list of the best ideas from the past 12 months. But then we end up debating what counts as best — important? useful? original? all three? — and compiling extremely long lists, struggling to shorten them, and over-thinking it all, when the point should just be to gather some really good reading for you for any free time you happen to find over the holiday. So this year, instead, we thought about the pieces that most surprised us or provoked us to think differently about an intractable problem or perennial question in management, we reviewed the whole year of data to remind ourselves what our readers found most compelling, and we looked for patterns in the subjects our authors raised most frequently and independently of our editorial urging.  The result, I think, is a set of ideas that together are important, useful, and original, and that feel like quite an accurate account of the management concerns many of us shared in 2013.

Here’s the list.  See what you think:

1.  Leaning in will only get us so far.  If the workplace is going to work for women — and for families — men need to change, and so do our expectations of them.  Their tendency toward overconfidence is often mistaken for competence and rewarded with promotions, and their masculine identities require that they work too many hours and get too little sleep, putting extra pressure on women whose greater home- and kid-related responsibilities prevent them from competing on quantity.  The good news is that millennial men are changing the way they define leadership and demanding work that fits around their families.  And the seven policy changes Stew Friedman recommends would benefit all working Americans.  Note: the majority of the pieces below were written by men.

Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders?

Why Men Work So Many Hours

It’s Not Women Who Should Lean In; It’s Men Who Should Step Back

Real Men Go to Sleep

Meet the New Face of Diversity: The “Slacker” Millennial Guy

7 Policy Changes America Needs So People Can Work and Have Kids

2.  If your knowledge-based industry hasn’t been disrupted yet, get ready. According to Clay Christensen and his coauthors Dina Wang and Derek van Bever, the strategy consulting industry is about to blow up the same way the legal world just did.  McKinsey may have been hired in 2013 by the Vatican, the Bank of England, and the owners of the Rangers and Knicks, but they’re also acting to stave off threats to their business model. Meanwhile, Michael Porter explains exactly how health care needs disrupting, professors from INSEAD and MIT debate the merits of the MOOCs that might upend higher education, and our own Sarah Green tells publishers to quit whining about disruption and start enjoying the innovation that goes along with it.

Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption

The Strategy That Will Fix Health Care

Stop Requiring College Degrees

Let Them Eat MOOCs

Publishers, Stop Crying Over Spilled Milk

3.  The right kind of project management — and project manager — really matters.  It’s impossible to get through another sentence, of course, without mentioning Healthcare.gov, though it sounds like project management was only one of that initiative’s many management problems. But to be fair to the U.S. government, excellent project management is extremely rare.  Its practitioners are the modernization of the much-maligned yet depended-upon middle manager.  Research and examples published in HBR this year — including an account of a much more effective government agency’s approach to solving problems — prove how critical they are to innovation.

Special Forces Innovation: How DARPA Attacks Problems

What Sets Effective Middle Management Apart

What Manufacturing Taught Me About Knowledge Work

The Hidden Indicators of a Failing Project

4.  The rest of us still have a lot to learn from Silicon Valley.  American tech entrepreneurs earned some bad press this year, but in HBR, they proved why more established firms should not stop watching them closely.  In “Why the Lean Start Up Changes Everything,” Steve Blank outlines how big companies including GE are adopting the minimal, iterative approach to nearly every aspect of launching new enterprises and how, if adopted more widely, lean start up methods could lead to a more entrepreneurial economy overall.  And the applicable lessons aren’t just about innovation — many of the best new ideas in people management, from hiring practices to leadership development, are emerging from places like LinkedIn, Google, and Netflix.

Why the Lean Start Up Changes Everything

Tours of Duty: The New Employer-Employee Compact

How Google Sold Its Engineers on Management

How Netflix Reinvented HR

The Danger of Turning Cynical about Silicon Valley

5.  Technology offers real hope for Africa’s economic future.  In a column in the March issue, Richard D’Aveni predicts that 3-D printing will precipitate China’s fall from manufacturing grace, sending economic power back to the West. Ed Bernstein and Tim Farrington from the Industrial Research Institute imagine the global realignment differently; they see Africa, with its valuable natural resources and a young and increasingly educated population, building an immense black market for 3-D printed goods and coming to dominate the global economy.  We also found seven other reasons Africa’s economy might leapfrog the economies of more developed nations.

3-D Printing Will Change the World

Imagine a Future Where Africa Leapfrogs Developed Economies

Seven Reasons Why Africa’s Time Is Now

6.  Being nice makes you a better leader and your company more profitable – new research proves it.  Amy Cuddy, Matthew Kohut, and John Neffinger answered Machiavelli’s question:  is it better to be loved or feared?  The best way to influence and lead others, they say, is to begin with warmth.  And that’s not all:  Generous behavior is associated with higher unit profitability, productivity, efficiency, and customer satisfaction, along with lower costs and turnover rates.  The best leaders favor oxytocin and its effects over adrenaline and dopamine.  And rudeness in the workplace hurts the bottom line. Luckily, Susan David and Christina Congleton explain how you can learn to do a better job of managing your thoughts and emotions in “Emotional Agility”.

Connect Then Lead

Break Your Addiction to Being Right

In the Company of Givers and Takers

The Price of Incivility

Emotional Agility

7.  It’s possible to make more time in the day after all.  It took three years for Julian Birkinshaw and Jordan Cohen to figure out how to free up 20% of your work day.  And a group of researchers in the UK found that organizations can dramatically reduce the amount of time their employees spend on email, if they can convince executives to stop emailing so much.  Finally, there’s one more thing you can do to save time:  stop complaining so much about how busy you are.  Meredith Fineman’s rant on the subject struck many of our nerves — it was one of the most popular posts of the year.

Make Time for the Work That Matters

To Reduce Email, Get Execs to Send Fewer Messages

Please Stop Complaining About How Busy You Are

18 Aug 01:37

M&A as competitive advantage

Treating M&A as a strategic capability can give companies an edge that their peers will struggle to replicate.