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07 Jan 15:22

The Muslim Brotherhood: Islamism is no longer the answer

IT WAS all smiles in the Qatari capital, Doha, when leaders of the Gulf Co-operation Council met on December 9th. Unusually, the annual summit of the six-member club of Arab oil monarchies packed more politics than pageantry. It marked the official healing of a deep rift between Qatar and its neighbours. More accurately, it confirmed the small but immensely rich host nation’s retreat, under sustained pressure, from an activist foreign policy its neighbours viewed not only as irksome but as downright subversive.For the past decade Qatar had given quiet, generous and persistent support to the Muslim Brotherhood. It had lent money, diplomatic backing and a powerful media platform not only to the mother organisation, founded in Egypt in 1928, but to a range of affiliated and like-minded Islamist groups across the region. Qatar’s leaders leant ideologically towards the Brotherhood’s conservative but centrist Islamism. They also saw its tentacular reach as a force-multiplier for their own ambitions, and wagered on Brotherhood-style Islamism as the political wave of the Arab future.Indeed, in the Arab Spring of 2011 Brothers and their fellow travellers won elections in...
23 Sep 11:50

In Brookings Cafeteria Podcast, Shadi Hamid Explains Islamists' "Willingness to Die"

by Fred Dews and Elina Saxena

"This idea that you can have a revolution and then overnight you get to liberal democracy is not only unrealistic, it's totally ahistorical. This is not the way political change happens. So we have to readjust our expectations," said Brookings Fellow Shadi Hamid in a recent two-part Brookings Cafeteria podcast on Islamists, Democracy, and the Roots of Middle East Violence.

In the podcast, Hamid discussed political Islam and his experiences meeting with various leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, including Mohamed Morsi, who later became Egypt's first democratically elected president, but was forced out of office a year later by Egypt's armed forces. Hamid stressed that "to understand Islamists groups, you have to talk with them, you have to spend time with them." These meetings underpin his new book, Temptations of Power: Islamists and Illiberal Democracy in a New Middle East (Oxford University Press, 2014).

During the interview, Hamid explained "one thing I have a challenge with," which is the "willingness to die" that Muslim Brotherhood members expressed to him. As he explained in the podcast:

If the military is going to move in and disperse a sit-in by brute force and you know that they’re prepared to commit massacres in broad daylight—like last August, the Rabaa massacre of August 14—if I heard something like that I'd run for the hills if I were a protester, and I think, a lot of us as Americans that would be our natural reaction. It’s not really worth dying for, and that’s not the way we see politics. Politics is not an existential thing. Politics is about compromise, it's about different policy prescriptions, it's about do we support universal health care or not. But for the people who were in Rabaa that day, it was about dying for a cause they believed in.
  
I was in London a couple of weeks ago talking to some Brotherhood activists who cannot return to Egypt, and they were talking about, for example, how before they went to Rabaa that day they had to prepare their wills because they had to actually prepare their families, their children, their brothers and sisters for the possibility of their death. So that to me is a fascinating conversation to have, and it's difficult for us sometimes. And many of them if not most of them were actually prepared to die that day, and many of them did die that day … more than 600.

This is not just a rhetorical device, this is not about getting your supporters and rallying your base. This is about people who are willing to kind of take politics to that other level.
  
And this kind of brings up a difficult question. That it almost became a fight between good and evil. And people in the Brotherhood were kid of hearkening back 1400 years ago when Prophet Mohammed was struggling against the Meccans and he and his companions were being faced with potential annihilation and it was this very foundational, existential struggle that would define Islam. And that kind of early phase of Islam is very important to believers. So they were kind of using that same kind of language and actually comparing themselves to early generations of Muslims who had to put their lives on the line.
  
So when politics ceases to be about compromise between partial truths and it becomes this kind of transcendent struggle, that can be very messy, it can be very bloody. That's not just about Egypt but that's about the broader region ... War is politics by other means. Violence is what happens when people lose faith in normal, everyday politics. That's what we're seeing across the region. Fine, people hate each other, there are major ideological and sectarian divides. You can accept that as long as you agree to resolve those hatreds … through a political process. You say, fine we don't like each other, but there is a process and we can respect the process and we are going to agree not to kill each other.
  
But I think what we have now is the almost complete, total loss of faith in politics as way to mediate differences between people. And that's why we’re seeing this rise of violence [and] extremism, and it can be in Iraq, Syria. Libya for that matter is on the brink of civil war, but even Israel and Palestine right now …

Among other topics, Hamid also spoke about the role of social media in the Middle East and the current situation in Egypt.

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More about part one.

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  • Fred Dews
  • Elina Saxena
      
 
 
23 Sep 11:49

Syrian Displacement: Views from the Region

REUTERS/Muhammad Hamed - Newly-arrived Syrian refugees carry their belongings as they walk at Azraq refugee camp near Al Azraq area, east of Amman, August 19, 2014.

Event Information

September 16, 2014
10:00 AM - 11:30 AM EDT

Saul/Zilkha Rooms
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

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There are now more than three million Syrian refugees seeking protection and survival in the region. The initial generosity of host governments is increasingly challenged as the presence of the refugees puts strains on public services, infrastructure, housing stocks and political cohesion. Solutions to the bloody conflict appear more distant than ever and it is likely that the refugees will not be able to return to their homes in the near future. In Syria itself, over six million people have been displaced within their country’s borders and the United Nations estimates that over nine million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.

On September 16, the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) presented a first-hand view of Syria’s displacement crisis. Speakers included Carol Batchelor of UNHCR Turkey, Brian Hansford of UNHCR and Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Elizabeth Ferris, senior fellow and co-director of the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement moderated the event and offered opening remarks.

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19 Apr 14:21

Election Boycotts and Hybrid Regime Survival

by Smith, I. O.

Despite the frequent occurrence of election boycotts, there are few studies available in the scholarly literature concerning their effectiveness, particularly as a strategy of opposition parties seeking to bring about the end of electoral authoritarian governments. This article uses an original data set with global coverage of hybrid regimes from 1981 to 2006, and uses event-history analysis to determine the efficacy of boycotts in national elections among other risk factors thought to undermine hybrid regimes. This article also takes a preliminary look at democratization outcomes following boycotted and contested elections in hybrid regimes. The core findings are that boycotts hasten the electoral defeat of hybrid regimes without much risk of destabilizing the electoral process, but ultimately do not lead to increased competition in successor regimes.

19 Apr 14:14

A Discreet Critique of Discrete Regime Type Data

by Wilson, M. C.

To understand the limitations of discrete regime type data for studying authoritarianism, I scrutinize three regime type data sets provided by Cheibub, Gandhi, and Vreeland, Hadenius and Teorell, and Geddes. The political narratives of Nicaragua, Colombia, and Brazil show that the different data sets on regime type lend themselves to concept stretching and misuse, which threatens measurement validity. In an extension of Fjelde’s analysis of civil conflict onset, I demonstrate that interchangeably using the data sets leads to divergent predictions, it is sensitive to outliers, and the data ignore certain institutions. The critique expounds on special issues with discrete data on regime type so that scholars make more informed choices and are better able to compare results. The mixed-methods assessment of discrete data on regime type demonstrates the importance of proper concept formation in theory testing. Maximizing the impact of such data requires the scholar to make more theoretically informed choices.