Rolandt

Philip Bump explains why the “impeach this” map is a bit dubious:

By now, this criticism of electoral maps is taught in elementary schools. Or, at least, it should be. Those red counties in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, for example, are home to 1.6 million 2016 voters — fewer than half of the number of voters in Los Angeles County. Trump won 1 million votes in those states, beating Hillary Clinton by a 580,000-vote margin. In Los Angeles, Clinton beat Trump by 1.7 million votes.

As Alberto Cairo already went into, it’s not so much that the map itself is incorrect. It’s a bivariate map. It shows which counties voted more for one person versus another. It’s more about the context of how the map is used. It’s the visualization equivalent of pulling a quote out of context and people seeing what they want to see.

Tags: election

Every iPhone should be in a case. The drop protection, extra grip, and personality a case adds are worth a few dollars and the added bulk. Even with the most careful handling, accidents happen, and going commando doesn’t strike us as being worth it when the result can be a $400-plus out-of-warranty repair. But hey, if a case isn’t your thing, you do you. Here are our picks for everyone else.

Richard Ford, Boston Review, Oct 02, 2019

As much as I am loathe to delve into U.S. education politics, I think it's important to highlight the nugget of wisdom in this post. While people tend to think of higher education as a 'social leveler' - "anyone, we are told, can ascend an ever-steepening social and economic hierarchy". But, "of course, it isn’t. The result is that class stratification, cutthroat capitalist competition, and racial resentment collide in university admissions." And this continues to exist even if you open up admissions to the lower classes. "The children of the elite must always predominate if the school is to remain elite. A truly elite school admits the most talented student body it can while still ensuring that most of the student body is drawn from the upper class."

Web: [Direct Link] [This Post]

Ryan Brock, The Blog Herald, Oct 02, 2019

Maybe don't 'blog like Shakespeare'. At least, not as described here. Here's what we're told: "Content starts writing itself once a rubric of format is produced, and Shakespeare nailed his format down well with the sonnet."  I can think of any number of education bloggers who phone one in once a day or whatever, with each post following more or less the same format. I'm pretty sure Shakespeare put more effort into his sonnets. Content that 'writes itself' is probably not worth writing. There needs to be some risk, some effort and some insight in each piece of writing.

Web: [Direct Link] [This Post]

Maybe, actually, the development absurdity of the year.

An application has come in to build a five-storey commercial building on the northeast corner of West Broadway and Granville Street – identified as the location for the South Granville station on the proposed Broadway line.

To repeat: a five-storey building on top of a subway line.

But that’s not the absurdity. This is: “Also included in the project are six levels of underground parking.”

To repeat again: a five-storey building with six levels of parking. On top of what will be one of the busiest metro stops in the region.

 

A couple of days I ago I shared a link on twitter from Rob Hopkins about a community meeting held in Totnes in the UK which brought together the community to discuss what to do now that the town had declared a climate emergency. The design of the meeting was highly participatory and I’m grateful that the organizers took time to document and share the results.

The design had all the hallmarks of an effective participatory gathering, including having a well thought through harvest strategy so that the gathering was in service of the work and that it left people engaged, enthusiastic about participating in community work and more importantly trusting one another.

These kinds of gatherings are not uncommon, but it’s unlikely that you’ve ever been to one in your town or city. I’ve been lucky enough over the years to do a few really interesting gatherings in my home community of Bowen Island, including a nearly year long series of monthly Open Space events which ran parallel to our Official Community Plan update and a participatory design session for the future of some of our community lands.

This morning, when asked on twitter what I though contributed to building trust in community meeting I answered with a few thoughts. I’ve written a lot about this before, but it’s always interesting to see what I would say differently at any given time.

So here’s today’s version. As design principles, I think these should be at the centre of design for participatory processes if you want to do things that increase trust:

• Trust the people. Invite them because they care about the issues and they have something to say, and invite them to engage in questions you don’t have answers to. Don’t spend a lot of time lecturing at them. You invited them, treat them like honoured guests.
• Let them host and harvest their own conversations. My core practice here is “never touch the people’s data.” If they are recording insights and clustering themes and writing session reports simply give them the tools or the process for that and let them get on with it. Provide a clear question for them to work on, and let them use their own words to rerecord the answers and insights. Be very careful if you find yourself synthesizing or sense making on behalf of a group. Those are your insights, not theirs.
• Use small groups and mix them up. Put people in proximity to many different ideas and perspectives and let them struggle with difference and diversity. Mix them up. Not every conversation will be great. Let people move on and discover better things in different conversations.
• Work from stories and not opinions. If you want to know about the future of a community ask people to tell stories that somehow capture the change they are seeing, rather than “what do you think is going to happen?” try not to have abstract or aspirational conversations without first grounding the participants in a process that helps them to also see what’s happening in the system.
• Ask people to act within the scope of their agency. Be careful asking for recommendations for other people to do things if you don’t have the resources to undertake those recommendations. Be clear with participants about what you can support at the end of the meeting and what is theirs to do, and don’t ask them for actions that they have no ability to undertake.

If you ask me again in a few months what I would say, it would probably be different, but this is a pretty reliable set of principles to guide design.

Apple has had a busy year expanding its content distribution arm. With the addition of Apple News+, Apple Arcade, and Apple TV+, Apple has revamped its paid content bundle offerings. Combining these new bundles with platforms like the App Store and iTunes, Apple will be in a position to have a content distribution arm bringing in more than $30 billion of revenue per year by FY2022.

Mapping Out Apple’s Content Distribution Arm

There are two parts to Apple’s content distribution arm: paid bundles and platforms. Paid bundles offer users access to third-party content (first-party content in the case of Apple TV+) for a set price each month. Platforms offer users the ability to consume a wide range of third-party content via paid and free downloads, in-app purchases, and paid subscriptions.

Exhibit 1: Apple’s Content Distribution Arm

   

Paid Bundles

• Apple Music. Launched in 2015, Apple Music now has more than 60 million paying subscribers in more than 100 countries. In the U.S., an individual membership that includes a music catalog of 50 million songs goes for $9.99 per month ($99.99 per year) with student ($4.99 per month) and family ($14.99 per month) pricing also available.

• Apple TV+. Apple’s new direct-to-consumer paid video streaming service will launch on November 1st in more than 100 countries. Built into the Apple TV app, Apple TV+ will include nine original video series and movies at launch, and new series and movies will be added each month. Apple is spending approximately $2 billion per year on original video content. An Apple TV+ subscription will go for $4.99 with Family Sharing although Apple is having a limited time promotion of one free year of Apple TV+ with a qualifying Apple device purchase. A detailed look at Apple’s TV+ strategy is available here.

• Apple Arcade. Launched two weeks ago at $4.99 per month with Family Sharing, Apple Arcade offers subscribers access to approximately 70 exclusive games, and new titles will be added each month. Available in more than 150 countries, Apple Arcade utilizes a new business model for the App Store with Apple funding game development although ownership rights remain with the game developer.

• Apple News+. Launched this past March, Apple News+ offers subscribers access to approximately 300 paid magazines and a handful of news publications. Built into the Apple News app, Apple News+ monthly subscription pricing of $9.99 includes Family Sharing with access for up to five other people. Apple News+ is currently available in the U.S., Canada, UK, and Australia.

Platforms 

• App Stores (iOS, tvOS, macOS). With 2.2 million iOS apps available to download, the App Store remains a cultural phenomenon. Various business models are supported through the App Store including paid and free apps, ad-supported, in-app purchases, and paid subscriptions.

• Apple TV App. The new Apple TV app offers “channels” through which users can subscribe to approximately two dozen third-party video bundles.

• iTunes. Despite Apple deemphasizing iTunes by breaking out functionality into different apps, the platform still represents a source of paid download revenue. 

• Apple Books. Apple offers a wide range of paid and free titles.

• Apple News. Launched in 2015, Apple News offers users a wide selection of free and ad-supported written content from around the web. Apple News has 90M monthly active users thanks to prime real estate on Apple devices and a heavy emphasis on human curation.

• Apple Podcasts. Apple is the leading distributor of podcasts with more than 600,000 available. Apple currently doesn’t directly monetize the Apple Podcasts app.  

Subscription Estimates

In order to measure the size of Apple’s content distribution arm, one can first estimate the number of subscriptions Apple will generate from its four paid content bundles. Those totals can then be used to derive revenue estimates. The final step is to come up with growth trajectories for Apple’s various content platforms.

Exhibit 2 includes my estimates for the number of paid subscriptions Apple can achieve for its four paid bundles within three years, or by the end of FY2022 (September 2022). These estimates assume additional refinement and a certain amount of evolution such as an improved user interface for Apple News+, a larger video catalog for Apple TV+, and a continuously expanding number of games in Apple Arcade.  

Exhibit 2: Apple Paid Content Bundle - Subscription Estimates (YE2022)

   

One important consideration found with these paid bundles is that each supports Family Sharing. While my estimates call for the four paid bundles to have a total of 188 million paid subscriptions, Family Sharing will mean that the number of Apple users having access to at least one paid bundle will likely exceed 350 million. This amounts to roughly one in three Apple users having at least one paid subscription to Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple News+, or Apple Arcade.

Additional explanation regarding my paid bundle subscription estimates follows:

Apple Music. As shown in exhibit 3, it took Apple a little less than three years to reach 40 million Apple Music subscribers with the service available in more than 100 countries. Apple is currently adding 1.3 million to 1.4 million Apple Music subscribers per month. My 95 million Apple Music subscriber estimate by FY2022 reflects Apple being able to maintain the current growth rate over the next three years.

Exhibit 3: Number of Apple Music Subscribers 

Tailwinds for Apple Music subscriber growth include the paid music streaming pie continuing to expand and Apple seeing continued success competing against Spotify in developed markets. Growth headwinds include Apple already experiencing some of the easier subscriber growth in the U.S.

Apple TV+. Apple has a few things going for it when it comes to grabbing a significant number of Apple TV+ subscribers in the coming years.

1. Netflix and Hulu have shown that many U.S. consumers see value in paying for direct-to-consumer video streaming bundles. In addition, the market will likely support a number of players and not just Netflix. A similar phenomenon is observed outside the U.S. as Netflix follows a localized content strategy.

2. Apple went with an aggressive $4.99 per month launch price for Apple TV+ as well as a limited time promotion of one year free with a qualifying Apple device purchase. Such a promotion will introduce quite a few Apple users to Apple TV+ in a very short amount of time.

My 55 million subscriber estimate for Apple TV+ assumes Apple sees stronger adoption for the service than it achieved with Apple Music over the same amount of time. For context, Disney expects Disney+ will be able to grab 60 million to 90 million subscribers by 2024. However, that range is likely conservative.

Apple Arcade. According to Apple, 500 million people visit the App Store each week. After taking into account Family Sharing, the number of families accessing the App Store each week may be closer to 350 million. My 30 million paid subscriber estimate assumes nine percent of families outside of China who frequent the App Store will sign up for Apple Arcade over the next three years.

Apple News+. My 8 million subscriber estimate reflects Apple continuing to evolve News+ in the coming years. Limited availability will remain a major headwind for subscriber growth as it reduces the addressable market to a fraction of Apple’s billion users. In addition, my 8 million subscriber estimate is influenced by larger headwinds found with consumers not seeing value in many of the magazines included in Apple News+. At the end of the day, the scale associated with paid written news simply isn’t in the same league as video and music streaming. For context, the two largest news sites in terms of the number of digital subscribers, the NYT and WSJ, have 3.0 million and 1.8 million digital subscribers, respectively.

Revenue and Gross Profit Estimates

When estimating revenue and gross profit for Apple’s four paid content bundles, the accounting treatment associated with revenue sharing arrangements needs to be considered. Apple reportedly relies on a 50% revenue share arrangement with Apple News+. Similar to how App Store revenue is reported on a net basis, Apple will only report its share of Apple News+ revenue. Apple will report Apple Music, Apple Arcade, and Apple TV+ revenue on a gross basis as those services do not include any type of revenue share arrangement.

Exhibit 4: Apple Paid Content Bundle - Revenue Estimates (FY2022)

   

For this exercise, my gross profit estimates reflect costs tied directly to each paid content bundle. For Apple Music, the approximately 70% of every dollar that is paid out to music rights holders is taken into consideration. For Apple TV+ and Apple Arcade, the amount of cash spent on content is taken into consideration. It is important to point out that SG&A costs are not reflected in these calculations.

Exhibit 5: Apple Paid Content Bundle - Gross Profit Estimates (FY2022)

   

Apple’s Other Content Distribution Businesses 

With estimates for Apple’s content bundles in hand, attention turns to estimating the amount of revenue generated by Apple’s content platforms. While Apple does not break out the amount of revenue generated by the App Store or iTunes, management has provided various financial clues that allow one to back into accurate App Store revenue estimates.

In FY2019, my estimate is that the App Store will be responsible for approximately $13 billion of revenue and $8 billion of gross profit. Apple reports App Store revenue on a net basis, reporting only its share of revenue although the full costs to run the entire App Store (84% of apps don’t bring in any revenue) are passed through the income statement. After taking into account every other content distribution platform, including iTunes, my estimate is that Apple will bring in close to $15 billion of platform revenue and $9 billion of gross profit in FY2019.

When forecasting revenue trends for Apple’s content platforms over the next three years, it is important to consider the possibility of Apple’s new content bundle offerings cannibalizing a percentage of paid downloads and in-app purchases. For example, a portion of App Store revenue will likely flow to Apple Arcade over time while iTunes revenue continues to decline due to Apple Music. Assuming 10% of App Store revenue ends up being cannibalized by Apple Arcade, my estimate is that Apple’s various content platforms will see 6% growth year-over-year leading to $16 billion of revenue in FY2022.

Adding my $15 billion revenue estimate for Apples four paid bundles with my $17 billion revenue estimate for Apple’s platforms leads to an overall content distribution arm expected to bring in $32 billion of revenue and $15 billion of gross profit per year by the end of FY2022. 

Exhibit 6: Apple’s Content Distribution Arm - Revenue and Gross Profit Estimates (FY2022)

   

Risks

The following items represent risk factors to my estimates:

• Industry dynamics. The single largest risk factor is mostly out of Apple’s control – the degree to which people will be willing to pay for written content from traditional magazines, rent music and videos, and pay a set price each month to access games.

• Competition. My estimates do not assume much adoption among users in China. Accordingly, China / WeChat do not represent risk factors to my estimates. Instead, Amazon’s digital content distribution aspirations represent a much larger risk. 

• Regulation. There are a number of parties looking to attack the App Store on antitrust grounds. At this time, my estimates do not reflect any material adverse change to App Store economics from these efforts.

Takeaways

Based on the preceding estimates, there are a number of takeaways:

1. A $32 billion revenue run rate per year is roughly double the amount of revenue Netflix currently earns in a year. However, when considering Apple’s overall business, the content distribution arm will likely represent approximately 11% of Apple’s overall revenue. This reinforces the view that content distribution will continue to represent a relatively small fraction of Apple’s overall business.

2. Apple’s paid bundles will likely have lower profit margins than Apple’s content platforms given how Apple is funding original content for Apple TV+ and game development. Apple Music revenue being reported on a gross basis also pressures overall margins found with the paid bundles.

3. The App Store will likely remain the most profitable piece of Apple’s content distribution arm for the foreseeable future given that revenue is reported on a net basis.

4. While Apple’s overall content distribution arm will be highly profitable, it likely still won’t be as profitable as Apple’s other services including AppleCare+, iCloud, Search Ads, and Licensing. While different accounting treatments (net vs. gross revenue recognition) play a role in driving down profitability, the larger factor is that Apple will need to continue investing in Apple TV+ and Apple Arcade.

Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.

Matt Elliott @GraphicMatt
Here’s a per-ward map of GHG emissions from personal vehicles. Need to get people in Scarborough out of their cars. pic.twitter.com/L9q9hcSpdq

Denise Balkissoon @balkissoon
Can I add: to me, this isn't criticizing people in Scarborough who drive. This is criticizing politicians who have… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

A lot of folks feel like they’re failing at the work they do unless they’re following their passion. As if doing something you’re passionate about is better or more fulfilling than anything else.

The Shen programming language has an extensible type system. Types are defined using sequent calculus and the system is powerful enough to create a variety of exotic types but it can be difficult when first starting with Shen to know how to use that power. In this post I hope to go through some basic examples of defining types in Shen without needing to know too much sequent calculus details.

For an overview of Shen there is Shen in 15 minutes and the Shen OS Kernel Manual. An interactive JavaScript REPL exists to try examples in the browser or pick on one of the existing Shen language ports. For these examples I'm using my Wasp Lisp port of Shen.

Shen is optionally typed. The type checker can be turned off and on. By default it is off and this can be seen in the Shen prompt by the presence of a '-' character:

(0-) ...shen code...

Turning type checking on is done by using (tc +). The '-' in the prompt changes to a '+' to show type checking is active. It can be turned off again with (tc -):

(0-) (tc +)
(1+) (tc -)
(2-) ...

Types in Shen are defined using datatype. The body of the datatype definition contains a series of sequent calculus rules. These rules define how an object in Shen can be proved to belong to a particular type. Rather than go through a detailed description of sequent calculus, I'm going to present common examples of types in Shen to learn by example and dive into details as needed. There's the Shen Language Book for much more detail if needed.

# Records

One way of storing collections of data in Shen is to use lists or vectors. For example, given an the concept of a 'person' that has a name and age, this can be stored in a list with functions to get the relevent data:

(tc -)

(define make-person
  Name Age -> [Name Age])

(define get-name
  [Name Age] -> Name)

(define get-age
  [Name Age] -> Age)

(get-age (make-person "Person1" 42))
 => 42

In the typed subset of Shen we can define a type for this person object using datatype:

(datatype person
  N : string; A : number;
  _______________________
  [N A] : person;)

This defines one sequent calculus rule. The way to read it is starting with the code below the underscore line, followed by the code above it. In this case the rule states that if an expression matching the pattern [N A] is encountered, where N is a string and A is a number, then type that expression as person. With that rule defined, we can ask Shen if lists are of the type person:

(0+) ["Person" 42] : person
["Person1" 42] : person

(1+) ["Person1" "Person1"] : person
[error shen "type error"]

(2+) ["Person 42"]
["Person1" 42] : person

Given this person type, we might write a get-age function that is typed such that it only works on person objects as follows (The { ...} syntax in function definitions provides the expected type of the function):

(define get-age
  { person --> number }
  [N A] -> A)
[error shen "type error in rule 1 of get-age"]

Shen rejects this definition as not being type safe. The reason for this is because our datatype definition only states that [N A] is a person if N is a string and A is a number. It does not state that a person object is constructed only of a string and number. For example, we could have an additional definition as follows:

(datatype person2
  N : string; A : string;
  _______________________
  [N A] : person;)

Now we can create different types of person objects:

(0+) ["Person" 42 ] : person
["Person" 42] : person

(1+) ["Person" "young"] : person
["Person" "young"] : person

get-age is obviously badly typed in the presence of this additional type of person which is why Shen rejected it originally. To resolve this we need to tell Shen that an [N A] is a person if and only if N is a string and A is a person. This is done with what is called a 'left rule'. Such a rule defines how a person object can be deconstructed. It looks like this:

(datatype person3
  N : string, A: number >> P;
  ___________________________
  [N A] : person >> P;)

The way to read this type of rule is that, if [N A] is a person then N is a string and A is a number. With that loaded into Shen, get-age type checks:

(define get-age
   { person --> number }
   [N A] -> A)
get-age : (person --> number)

(0+) (get-age ["Person" 42])
42 : number

The need to create a left rule, dual to the right rule, is common enough that Shen has a short method of defining both in one definition. It looks like this - note the use of '=' instead of '_' in the separator line:

(datatype person
   N : string; A : number;
   =======================
   [N A] : person;)

(define get-age
   { person --> number }
   [N A] -> A)
get-age : (person --> number)

(0+) (get-age ["Person" 42])
42 : number

The above datatype is equivalent to declaring the two rules:

(datatype person
  N : string; A : number;
  _______________________
  [N A] : person;

  N : string, A: number >> P;
  ___________________________
  [N A] : person >> P;)

# Controlling type checking

When progamming at the REPL of Shen it's common to create datatype definitions that are no longer needed, or part of a line of thought you don't want to pursue. Shen provides ways of excluding or including rules in the typechecker as needed. When defining a set of rules in a datatype, that datatype is given a name:

(datatype this-is-the-name
   ...
)

The rules within that definition can be removed from selection by the typechecker using preclude, which takes a list of datatype names to ignore during type checking:

(preclude [this-is-the-name])

To re-add a dataype, use include:

(include [this-is-the-name])

There is also include-all-but and preclude-all-but to include or remove all but the listed names. These commands are useful for removing definitions you no longer want to use at the REPL, but also for speeding up type checking in a given file if you know the file only uses a particular set of datatypes.

# Enumerations

An example of an enumeration type would be days of the week. In an ML style language this can be done like:

datatype days =   monday | tuesday | wednesday
                | thursday | friday | saturday | sunday

In Shen this would be done using multiple sequent calculus rules.

(datatype days
    ____________
    monday : day;

    ____________
    tuesday : day;

    ____________
    wednesday : day;

    ____________
    thursday : day;

    ____________
    friday : day;

    ____________
    saturday : day;

    ____________
    sunday : day;)

Here there are no rules above the dashed underscore line, meaning that the given symbol is of the type day. A function that uses this type would look like:

(define day-number
  { day --> number }
  monday    -> 0
  tuesday   -> 1
  wednesday -> 2
  thursday  -> 3
  friday    -> 4
  saturday  -> 5
  sunday    -> 6)

It's quite verbose to define a number of enumeration types like this. It's possible to add a test above the dashed underline which allows being more concise. The test is introduced using if:

(datatype days
  if (element? Day [monday tuesday wednesday thursday friday saturday sunday])
  ____________________________________________________________________________
  Day : day;)

(0+) monday : day
monday : day

Any Shen code can be used in these test conditions. Multiple tests can be combined:

(datatype more-tests
  if (number? X)
  if (>= X 5)
  if (<= X 10)
  ___________
  X : between-5-and-10;)

  (2+) 5 : between-5-and-10
  5 : between-5-and-10

  (3+) 4 : between-5-and-10
  [error shen "type error\n"]

# Polymorphic types

To create types that are polymorphic (ie. generic), like the built-in list type, include a free variable representing the type. For example, something like the built in list where the list elements are stored as pairs can be approximated with:

(datatype my-list
   _____________________
   my-nil : (my-list A);

   X : A; Y : (my-list A);
   ========================
   (@p X Y) : (my-list A);)
   

(define my-cons
  { A --> (my-list A) --> (my-list A) }
  X Y -> (@p X Y))

(0+) (my-cons 1 my-nil)
(@p 1 my-nil) : (my-list number)

(1+) (my-cons 1 (my-cons 2 my-nil))
(@p 1 (@p 2 my-nil)) : (my-list number)

(2+) (my-cons "a" (my-cons "b" my-nil))
(@p "a" (@p "b" my-nil)) : (my-list string)

Notice the use of the '=====' rule to combine left and right rules. This is required to enable writing something like my-car which requires proving that the type of the car of the list is of type A:

(define my-car
   { (my-list A) --> A }
   (@p X Y) -> X)

# List encoded with size

Using peano numbers we can create a list where the length of the list is part of the type:

(datatype list-n
  ______
  [] : (list-n zero A);

  X : A; Y : (list-n N A);
  ================================
  [ X | Y ] : (list-n (succ N) A);)      

(define my-tail
  { (list-n (succ N) A) --> (list-n N A) }
  [Hd | Tl] -> Tl)

(define my-head
  { (list-n (succ N) A) --> A }
  [Hd | Tl] -> Hd)

This gives a typesafe head and tail operation whereby they can't be called on an empty list:

(0+) [] : (list-n zero number)
[] : (list-n zero number)

(1+) [1] : (list-n (succ zero) number)
[1] : (list-n (succ zero) number)

(2+) (my-head [])
[error shen "type error\n"]

(3+) (my-head [1])
1 : number

(4+) (my-tail [1 2 3])
[2 3] : (list-n (succ (succ zero)) number)

(5+) (my-tail [])
[error shen "type error\n"]      

# Power and Responsibility

Shen gives a lot of power in creating types, but trusts you to make those types consistent. For example, the following creates an inconsistent type:

(datatype person
  N : string; A : number;
  _______________________
  [N A] : person;

  N : string; A : string;
  _______________________
  [N A] : person;

  N : string, A: number >> P;
  ___________________________
  [N A] : person >> P;)

Here we are telling Shen that a string and number in a list is a person, and so too is a string and another string. But the third rule states that given a person, that is is composed of a string and a number only. This leads to:

(0+) (get-age ["Person" "Person"])
...

This will hang for a long time as Shen attempts to resolve the error we've created.

# Conclusion

Shen provides a programmable type system, but the responsibility lies on the programmer for making sure the types are consisitent. The examples given here provide a brief overview. For much more see The Book of Shen. The Shen OS Kernel Manual also gives some examples. There are posts on the Shen Mailing List that have more advanced examples of Shen types. Mark Tarver has a case study showing converting a lisp interpreter in Shen to use types.

Brian shares this great video.

In any random sample of 1,000 members, 1 or 2 will form the vocal minority. If you have 10,000 members, you can do the math.

If you’re responding to the daily needs of a vocal minority, you’re not managing your community; the community is managing you.

Spiral of silence theory predicts the louder the vocal minority become the more other members accept this as the consensus of the group and either adopt the same views or fail to share opposing views. This is dangerous.

Sometimes the vocal minority have valid concerns which you can validate with a survey or poll, but typically their concerns are simply the tools they’re using to validate their status and identity. If you resolve their concern without validating their status, they still won’t be happy.

This is why the same vocal minority form around every issue instead of a new group forming around each issue. It’s not about the issue.

If you reject their ideas, they adopt a persona of being smarter, wronged, and righteous. If you accept their ideas, you embolden them to suggest more.

The two better approaches are:

1) Take the time to build relationships with each of them. Use flattery, ask for advice and ideas in person, providing them with a perceived sense of influence over you typically helps. This takes time but tends to be effective. Use the occasional positive public remark.

2) Formalise their role in a private group. Invite them to a private group (let them pick their own group name) to share their concerns, discuss their ideas, and give them unique access. You can put their best ideas/concerns into a survey for the broader community. Better yet, it removes negative comments from the main areas of discussion.

Nothing you do will entirely remove a frustrating vocal minority with high demands, but you can reduce the negative posts by working with them rather than for or against them.

Do you lie enough? You probably need to lie more often!
When filling out online forms that is.

Since the GDPR, the EU data protection rules, came into effect last year, many companies struggled with getting their online forms compliant. Some don’t really try, others think they’ve done it well but really haven’t, and a tiny minority actually really adapted their order flows and forms to adjust for the GDPR. (Although GDPR mostly aren’t new rules, btw, it’s just that non-compliance costs a lot more).

Since not all forms are fully compliant, I routinely fill in false information. If they don’t limit their data collection, I will take the responsibility on myself to create as much noise in their data as is prudent.

Yesterday I ordered something from an on-line retailer. The form that asked for where to send my order didn’t indicate which fields were mandatory, but clearly contained fields that weren’t GDPR compliant if they were.

I filled out only the things needed to complete the transaction, which is the delivery address, and an e-mail address or phone number to keep me informed of the process. They also asked for my birthday (we’ll send you a birthday greeting!), which at least wasn’t mandatory, and shouldn’t really be asked for such a frivolous reason.

Turns out the name (first and last name fields) of the addressee was mandatory. Not entirely unexpected, to ensure the right person at the address provided receives the package. This was after payment, and meant for the fulfilment partner. So they don’t really need a mandatory field for first name, nor a proper last name, as long as the receiver knows for who a package is.

I opted for the initials A.V.G. (the Dutch abbreviation for GDPR). And a last name that was incorrectly spelled. Previously I filled out a mandatory department name in my company as ‘Read the GDPR this form sucks‘.

We probably all need to lie way more when filling out forms. Here’s the recipe.

For each field in a form

• If it is not mandatory don’t fill it out. They are trying to get more data about you voluntarily. Unless you perceive a clear need for yourself (e.g. you want them to SMS you when the delivery van is 30 minutes away)
• If it is mandatory, ask yourself how needed it truly is
  • if it concerns contractual aspects, your real name etc is needed. So you can rely on it later concerning warranty, tax purposes etc.
  • if there is no perceivable need, then lie, obfuscate or provide info that when read by a human is a reminder they should change their forms. “read the GDPR”… etc.

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How to make an editorial comment in a front-page layout …

Not sure how deliberately The Globe juxtaposed an Andrew Scheer profile with a climate-strike march to make a statement about Scheer on the Environment – but it really doesn’t matter.  Scheer did that on his own.

In Vancouver, he took that day when a hundred thousand marched on climate to announce money for highway expansion.  (Because more lanes means less pollution because that always works.)

And that’s got to be deliberate.

Though the message may be oblique, it’s clear evidence that Scheer discounts climate change whether as a political issue or as reality.  He’s basically doing a Harper 2.0 – similar to Stephen Harper’s Arctic tours when the words ‘climate change’ never passed his lips.  Harper’s message to other decision-makers: don’t take climate change too seriously. I have no intention of doing anything drastic.  You don’t have to either.”

Scheer looks to continue that strategy.  Reality might make a difference in Scheer’s indifference, but not mass marches.

Is he, then, an extinctionist?* – the ultimate pragmatist.

I doubt he’s reached the point where extinction of some kind seems so inevitable that it shapes his policy.  But I think he believes he can afford to be indifferent now.

So Andrew Scheer is an extinctionist-in-making.  Perhaps already made.

 

*What’s an extinctionist?  Here’s my definition:

Leaders and decision-makers who accept extinction – minor or major, local and global – as an acceptable outcome of climate change; and justify it in order to maximize power and benefit.

It’s not that they are so sociopathic they don’t care or will even revel in the apocalyptic.  But they are resigned to the inevitability of the threat and believe we are powerless to do anything consequential about it .  They therefore have to accept when making decisions that will hasten extinction, particularly for immediate benefit, that that’s okay.  Not desired, not expected, but possible.  An acceptable outcome to consider.

Because every other release is a memory black hole that makes my laptop lift off from the madly spinning ventilators 60 seconds after launching the browser. It’s been like that for a decade or more. That is why I’m not using FF, and on Opera as default browser (as well as TOR).

Replied to It's #Foxtober. Why aren't you using Firefox? by Charlie Owen

It's #Foxtober. Why aren't you using Firefox? Seriously, why not? It's not run by a giant corporation. It's got a cool community. It promotes browser diversity.

Tesla achieved record production and delivery of its vehicles in the third quarter of 2019.

In an October 2nd, 2019 report, the company revealed that it sold 96,155 vehicles and delivered approximately 97,000 vehicles in Q3.

Specifically, Tesla says it produced 16,318 Model S/X and 79,837 Model 3 vehicles and delivered 17,400 Model S/Xes and 79,600 Model 3s in Q3.

Further, Tesla says it received record net orders in Q3 and is entering Q4 with an increase in its order backlog. Notably, most of the Q3 Tesla 3 orders were from customers who had not placed a reservation, repeating a trend from Q2.

It’s important to note that these milestones were revealed in their own report. Tesla says overall Q3 earnings are still to come.

Source: Tesla

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A new icon inside of the iOS 13.2 beta hints at a larger-form AirPod model.

Putting this leak alongside the frequent noise-cancelling AirPods rumours, it seems like these are what the new headphones will look like.

The glyph seems larger than the normal AirPods and almost looks like it has a rubber tip on the end like most in-ear headphones.

The other piece of the puzzle that adds credibility to this rumour is an image of what is supposedly the shell of the new AirPods that leaked on SlashLeaks last month.

The leaked image and the icon inside of iOS 13.2 look the same. This all suggests that Apple is getting very close to revealing the new headphones.

The company is reportedly holding another hardware event in late October so we could see the final versions of the new AirPods then.

This would be a good time for Apple to release a new model since it’s starting to face increased competition from Amazon and Microsoft.

Source: 9to5Mac

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The post Surface Pro X, 7 and Laptop 3 Hands-on: A hop, skip and a jump forward appeared first on MobileSyrup.

Microsoft just announced Andromeda, ah sorry… the Surface Duo.

The Surface Duo is a long-rumoured smartphone slated to be released during the holiday 2020 season. The device features dual displays similar to the ZTE Axon M, and will compete against the likes of the Samsung’s Galaxy Fold and Huawei’s Mate X. 

The Duo features two side-by-side 5.6-inch displays that can fold like a book as well as outwards. When both displays are open together, they measure in at 8.3-inches.

Probably the best thing about the Duo is that it supports Android. That’s right, Microsoft’s new smartphone features Google’s Android 10 operating system. The phone is also capable of running two apps side-by-side.

The Surface Duo seems to have substantial bezels, but prior to its launch, Microsoft could change some of the device’s design elements.

Now that Microsoft has finally announced a new smartphone, are you excited? Will you be holding out for the Duo next year?

Let us know your thoughts about the device in the comments below.

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Vancouver city council has approved a number of regulations for ride-hailing services, including a 30 cent fee for every trip in the Metro Core area.

The idea behind the fee is to manage congestion, as the fee is only in place from 7am to 7pm.

There will also be an additional 30 cent provincial fee for all trips taken at any given time in British Columbia. The money is said to support accessibility, as reported by CBC News.

Both of these fees will not apply accessible vehicles.

Along with two fees, ride-hailing companies will also have to set a minimum rate that is the same as taxi companies. This ranges from $3.25 to $3.95 CAD.

British Columbia’s regulations regarding ride-hailing allow municipalities to put additional rules on companies working in their area. However, it doesn’t allow them to withhold business licences.

A point of disagreement between the councillors was the city staff’s proposal of a $100 CAD annual business licence for each driver.

City staff acknowledged that taxi drivers’ annual fees will be lowered to $100 CAD from $616 CAD in order to level the playing field between the two services.

The council decided to revisit the idea of the $100 CAD fee in six months after they discuss it with other municipalities.

Ride-hailing services are expected to start in Vancouver by the end of the year.

The process of bringing ride-hailing services to Vancouver has been a long affair. However, Uber recently confirmed that it will be bringing its ride-hailing service to Metro Vancouver.

Additionally, Lyft recently announced its intention to operate in Vancouver and has appointed its first general manager for the area.

Source: CBC News 

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Smart headphones are all the rage this season, and Marshall, a company typically known for making speakers, has just dropped a new pair.

The company is embedding Google Assistant into the device to bring a host of smart features to its popular Major III over-ear headphones. The new headphones are called the Marshall III Voice and feature a small button at the corner of the left earcup to trigger the assistant.

Adding the digital assistant wasn’t the only addition to the headphones. Marshall also packed in an additional 30 hours of battery, which brings the total battery life of 60 hours.

In terms of speakers, the headphones include a 40mm driver in each ear, so they should provide users with a robust sound experience.

There’s also a tiny joy-stick on the headphones that lets you pause the music, skip tracks and adjust volume.

MobileSyrup has reached out to Marshall for Canadian availability information and pricing. In the U.S., the headphones are slated to come out on October 16th and cost $169 USD (roughly, $224 CAD).

Source: Marshall

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Google might reveal new Pixel Buds at the Made by Google 2019 event. This would be the successor to the 2017 Pixel Buds. 

9to5Google obtained this leak from “a source familiar with the plan.” Unfortunately, that’s all 9to5 had to share.

There’s no information regarding whether the new earbuds will be completely wireless like the Apple’s AirPods and Microsoft’s recently revealed Surface Earbuds. It’s likely that the earbuds will look like the original Pixel Buds with a wire connecting them. If they do, make sure you don’t cut the cable between the two earbuds.

Leaks regarding the Pixel Buds have been quiet. Back in June new Pixel Buds firmware promised lag reduction and improved Bluetooth performance. That’s probably the most we’ve heard about the earphones since their initial launch.

If Google launches new Pixel Buds, we’ll see them alongside the rumoured Nest Mini, Nest Wifi and a new Pixelbook at the Made by Google event on October 15th. 

Source: 9to5Google

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Kelli McGraw, Oct 03, 2019

I actually think that this subject could be a really productive field for researchers. I written before about how much I use YouTube for learning everything from Sterling Engines to bicycle repair to world history. So we could say there is a domain called 'edutube' (for lack of a better moniker). What is it?  Where does it lead? Take it slowly, advises Kelli McGraw. "The hyper-connected PLN/PLE learning culture that we thought could be around the corner remains stymied by over-crowded curriculum and a culture that is fixated on standardised (you say ‘high standards‘, I say ‘one size fits all‘) pedagogy and assessment.

Web: [Direct Link] [This Post]

Michael Caulfield, Hapgood, Oct 03, 2019

Mike Caulfield makes the useful point that framing matters in critical analysis. He offers an example where the framing suggests that a killing was political even though none of the facts support that suggestion. Using framing creatively is a good way to catch an opponent off-guard. "Have you stopped beating your dog?" I ask my opponent. "I have never beaten my dog!" he replies, outraged. The newspaper headline the next day: "Opponent denies beating his dog." The sidebar could read "Sceptics not so sure." Caulfield is getting better at this media analysis gig, which is good to see.

Web: [Direct Link] [This Post]

Beth McMurtrie, Chronicle of Higher Education, Oct 03, 2019

I write both as someone who enjoys lecturing and believes he is good at it, as well as someone who has come close to falling asleep during numerous lectures. This article recommends saving the lecture by alternating it with learning activities. This makes sense for, say, a three-hour workshop, but I have on numerous occasions been riveted by and edified by the standard 50-minute talk. I think perhaps that one of the main problems with the lecture is that there are so few good lecturers, and also that many topics (like say, introductory algebra) don't really lend themselves to lectures. But for weaving a narrative, drawing our an argument, or rousing to action, a lecture can be a powerful tool.

Web: [Direct Link] [This Post]

Chris Isidore, Hanna Ziady, CNN Business, Oct 03, 2019

I am the last person to defend Facebook in anything, but I agree with them that this ruling is problematic. The gist is that a European court has ruled that its order to take down content applies world-wide. The implication, though, is that other countries can and should be able to apply the same principle, and if they did, it would result in informational chaos. If the national court of, say, Burkina Faso, say, were to reinstate its regulation that all photographers must have a permit, how would Europe respond? No court ought to be able to impose its rulings world-wide, except maybe the World Court.

Web: [Direct Link] [This Post]

nick shackleton-jones, aconventional, Oct 03, 2019

I wouldn't exactly say this is simply Dennett's dead end, but it's as good a place as any for this longish - and convincing - argument about consciousness and reasoning. The core of the argument I think is a bit mis-stated: "Brains process experience affectively, computers process information digitally." What does this mean? "I suspect that simpler creatures have simpler feelings – but I can assure you that at no point is it necessary to introduce a new category of thing – ‘thoughts’ – distinct from feelings. No, allow me to be clear on this point: ‘thoughts’ are just a sophisticated type of feeling." I'm kind of OK with this, but wonder why he would use the word 'feeling' instead of the broader (and more accurate) word 'experience'.

Web: [Direct Link] [This Post]

Wireless chargers are a convenient way to juice up your phone without having to plug it in, even if they’re slower than wired chargers. Stand-style chargers are the best, because, unlike horizontal pads, they allow you to use your phone while it’s charging. After 900 hours of testing since 2017, we’ve determined that the RAVPower Wireless Charging Stand (RP-PC069) is the best Qi wireless charger for smartphones because it charges phones—iPhone and Android alike—faster than the competition. It also includes a cable and wall charger, something many cheaper rivals leave out.

One of the standout new features of Microsoft’s recently announced Surface Pro X, Pro 7 and Laptop 3 is improved repairability.

Panos Panay, the company’s chief product officer, made a big show of this at the event when he removed the top plate of the Surface Laptop 3 on stage.

However, the change isn’t all it’s made out to be. The only part of the new Surfaces that you can upgrade is the SSD and, really, you’re not even supposed to do that.

Panay stressed on stage that customers shouldn’t try opening their laptops at home. Instead, it should be left for the professionals.

Despite that, people will likely attempt to open their new Surface devices and try to swap parts themselves. With the Laptop 3, the key lies hidden beneath the rubber feet on the bottom of the device. Beneath the feet are screws that hold the top plate in place. With those out of the way, you can remove it.

The top plate is actually reusable now. With the previous Surface Laptop 2, Microsoft technicians had to throw out the top plate when servicing a computer. That’s no longer the case.

However, for those brave enough to try opening the Laptop 3, there isn’t much you can do inside. Microsoft told The Verge that the RAM in the Surface Laptop 3 isn’t replaceable or upgradeable at all.

Microsoft’s last laptop was the ‘worst’ to disassemble

Interestingly, iFixit CEO Kyle Wiens told The Verge that the Surface Laptop 2 was “flat out the worst laptop [they’ve] ever disassembled.” Microsoft is making a big step forward here and seems to be mocking Apple to a degree. The Cupertino-based company has always been stringent with its devices and makes it difficult to upgrade or repair its products by yourself.

One such product is the iPad, which doesn’t allow customers to upgrade the memory. The Surface Pro X, in comparison, does allow users to increase the size of the SSD — if they can find one that works.

On the back of the Pro X is a small panel that you can open with a SIM ejector tool. Inside is an M.2 2230 SSD, which is a smaller variant compared to most M.2 SSDs. It can be incredibly difficult to find — The Verge says it isn’t on Amazon or Newegg and my own search proved fruitless as well. If you do find one, you’ll also need a Torx screwdriver to remove the old SSD and add the new one.

All this is to say that Microsoft has taken a few steps forward with servicing and repairing its products, but hasn’t come close to manufacturers like Dell. The new XPS 15 allows users to swap the RAM, SSD, battery and more by opening the bottom panel.

Source: The Verge

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