Joseph P Shanley

Things are getting from bad to worse for Private Credit giant Blue Owl Capital.

The last time we looked at the firm's precarious liquidity situation about a month ago, we found that the Blue Owl BDC would allow for 17% redemptions as investors, burned by both the tumbling stock price and the company's massive exposure to ticking private credit time bombs, were storming for the exit. 

Blue Owl BDC Allows for 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exit: BBG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 7, 2026

One month later, it has gotten far worse.

On Wednesday, Blue Owl Capital said it will fully restrict withdrawals from one of its retail-focused private credit funds, reversing a previous plan to resume redemptions this quarter as furious investors, fearing many more cockroaches are about to emerge, demanded their money in droves. 

The New York private credit firm said that investors in Blue Owl Capital Corp II, known as OBDC II, will no longer be able to redeem shares on a quarterly basis. Instead, the gated fund will return capital through periodic distributions funded by loan repayments, asset sales or other transactions.

The firm said it sold about $1.4 billion in direct-lending investments across three funds to provide investors with promised liquidity: Blue Owl Capital Corp II, Blue Owl Capital Corporation, and Blue Owl Technology Income Corp. The buyers included North American public pension funds and insurance companies (and, potentially, related parties which would be a huge negative if confirmed).

According to Bloomberg, the decision to gate capital highlights the risks confronting retail investors entering the fast-growing private credit market. Though investors are generally allowed to redeem a portion of their capital each quarter, payouts can be curtailed if withdrawal requests exceed set limits.

The news also rekindled fears in an industry that has attracted increasing scrutiny in recent months over valuations in the market and the quality of lending to firms with heavy debt loads and often little track record.

OBDC II drew scrutiny in recent months after Blue Owl proposed merging it with a publicly traded vehicle — a transaction that prior disclosures indicated could have resulted in losses of roughly 20% for some investors. The company promptly reversed the decision following investor outcry, but that did not change anything in the underlying business and redemption requests had already exceeded the standard 5% quarterly cap.

Blue Owl co-founder Craig Packer defended the decision to sell the loans, saying that the sale at 99.7% of par value was “a strong statement.”

“There’s skepticism about marks. There’s skepticism about valuation. We’ve always been saying we feel really good about the quality of our portfolio and the quality of our marks, but just saying it in some ways doesn’t seem to have done enough. So we’re putting our money where our mouth is,” Packer said on a conference call Thursday morning.

He added that the fund could return half of investors’ capital by the end of this year. He said that the fund was always going to come up with a strategic transaction to return money to investors at this point. “We will look for repayments, earnings and also potential additional asset sales to continue to return that capital,” Packer said.

“OBDC II has been exploring options to either create a liquidity event for investors or wind down the legacy vehicle and ultimately return capital to shareholders. We believe this is an important step forward for the fund as it creates an efficient process around returning capital to these investors,” wrote a Citizens Financial Group analyst, adding that selling loans at par was a “win-win.”

Blue Owl initially looked to sell loans at OBDC II and then widened to other vehicles following demand from institutional buyers, the firm said. OBDC II sold about $600 million - roughly 34% of its portfolio - and will use the proceeds to repay a credit facility from Goldman Sachs, and make a special cash distribution that will total about 30% of the fund’s net asset value.

It has been a very bad year for private credit funds in general and Blue Owl in particular which has been flooded with redemption requests in the past year: funds that let investors redeem periodically can face pressure when too many people want their money back at once. Managers often keep some more easily sold assets to meet withdrawals. Selling directly originated loans, which typically don’t trade often, is less common.

In the most recent quarter, redemption requests exceeded 5% at both of Blue Owl’s non-traded business development companies. Its tech-focused vehicle, OTIC, saw redemption requests jump to about 15% of net asset value, Blue Owl said.  As we reported earlier this month, the latest pressure point for Private Credit funds are their investment in Software/SaaS stocks, with fears spiking after a Barclays report revealed huge exposure to the collapsing software sector.

Blue Owl’s largest publicly traded BDC, OBDC, sold about $400 million of loans across 74 portfolio companies at around par, with an average position size of about $5 million. Blue Owl Technology Income Corp. sold roughly $400 million of loans and used the proceeds to pay down debt.

“What began as a targeted transaction to provide liquidity to OBDC II shareholders attracted significant interest from sophisticated institutional investors, allowing us to opportunistically extend the sale to OBDC,” Craig Packer, a co-founder of Blue Owl, said in a press release.

The firm said the transactions improved balance-sheet flexibility, modestly increased diversification and created more room to deploy capital.

Commenting on the latest news ouf of Blue Owl., Goldman's alt-financials specialist Christian DeGrasse laid out a bullish and bearish take (below we excerpt from his full note available to pro subs)

• Bullish feedback:
  • 1) Positive for the BDCs to be selling loans at/near PAR and combo of delever / buy back stock (OBDC bought back stock at ~86% of book from Nov – Dec),
  • 2) this is a positive ‘proof of concept’ that the marks are in a good place (particularly software, the largest industry in the sale), yes FPAUM getting impacted but with where valuations are, what matters is durability/quality/question of underwriting  rather than small movement in mgmt fees
• Bearish feedback:
  • 1) This impacts OWL’s FPAUM and thus there base mgmt. fee & Part 1 fees (the $1.4bn loan sale est impact firmwide rev by ~1% .. though more OBDC II runoff in future could continue to weigh slightly),
  • 2) Views that this is cherry picking the best loans,
  • 3) we don’t know the duration on these loans – credit spreads have mostly tightened over the past few years, shouldn’t these loans be sold at above-par?,
  • 4) this could indicate higher redemptions on the come (the big non-traded BDC OCIC is not participating in the loan sale so not a read through there … but maybe on OTIC?)
  • 5) some are wondering whether OWL’s own affiliates participated (I’m not seeing any facts around this FWIW, just sharing feedback)
  • 6) this morning we’re getting a lot more inbounds from the macro community about gating redemptions OBDC II (they are saying they’ll return capital through distributions funded by loan repayments, asset sales or other transactions)

Mohamed El-Erian also chimed in, asking if the news was a “canary in a coalmine moment” for private credit.

Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007?
This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from… pic.twitter.com/DhvLlIAy5S

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) February 19, 2026

A much less nuanced - and much more bearish take - this morning from George Noble:

Remember this scene in The Big Short?

Jamie Shipley and Charlie Geller have bet everything against the housing market.

They've been bleeding for months, wondering if they're wrong.

Then they flip on CNN and see it: New Century Financial - the second-largest subprime lender… https://t.co/AoEdZXp77x pic.twitter.com/vTMmNySCpw

— George Noble (@gnoble79) February 19, 2026

The stock of Blue Owl Capital (OWL) tumbled to a fresh two year low this morning, while the publicly-traded BDC (OBDC) also plunged as much as 9.4% on Thursday, approaching the more than two-year low that they reached earlier in the month amid mounting worries over the firm’s exposure to software businesses vulnerable to disruption from AI. 

More in the Goldman note available to pro subs.

Authored by Javier Simon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

When you leave this earth, you want to make sure your loved ones are taken care of and that you leave behind a cherished legacy. But without a plan, you can leave your family with some serious headaches. That’s why it’s important to take some steps today to make sure this doesn’t happen. Let’s take a look at some options.

Consider a Living Trust

Without a proper plan dictating how you’d like your assets distributed after your passing, your estate—that is, everything you own—would need to go through a court process known as probate to determine who gets what. This can take months and even years. And with it can come hefty court fees and other expenses. Plus, it’s all public record.

But you can bypass this with a revocable living trust. As a trust grantor or creator, you can transfer various types of assets into a trust, such as cash, real estate, and investments. In the trust document, you can clearly outline how you’d want your assets distributed and under what terms. As trustee, you can also manage the assets in your lifetime or appoint someone else. In addition, you can appoint a successor trustee to manage and distribute assets based on your direction.

A living trust doesn’t go through probate. And because it removes assets from your estate, it can potentially shield you from the estate tax.

Update Beneficiaries

Certain accounts such as retirement plans can allow for beneficiaries that you may list when you open the account. This holds a lot of weight. In fact, it overrides wills. But as time passes, your intentions may change. Maybe you set your spouse as a beneficiary, but a divorce may have you thinking you’d want to change beneficiaries to someone else, such as your child. But if you don’t act fast, the initial beneficiary designation stays. So you may want to review beneficiary designations periodically to make sure they still align with your wishes.

Set Up a Durable Power of Attorney

Nobody likes to think about it, but anyone can become incapacitated at some point in their lives. This is why it’s important to establish a durable power of attorney. This individual, also called an agent, can step in to legally handle your financial matters should you become mentally incapable to do so. This agent also can oversee assets that don’t typically fit into a trust such as retirement plans.

In the durable power of attorney document, you should clearly outline your agent’s responsibilities, powers, and limitations.

But, overall, you’d have someone competent to continue managing your finances for the benefit of your loved ones.

Write a Will

Although a trust can open the door to a smooth distribution of your assets and avoid probate, a will can still come in handy.

More importantly, it allows you to designate legal guardians for any minor children. It also can provide guidance for personal items or assets unintentionally left out of your trust.

Take Advantage of Gift Tax Exclusions

So far, we’ve discussed passing on assets to your loved ones. But you can always pass on gifts to help your loved ones during your lifetime. In fact, current tax laws give you a lot of freedom here.

For 2025, as an example, you can give up to $19,000 per individual without incurring a gift tax. And married couples can double that limit, up to $38,000. But if you go over those limits, you generally won’t owe a tax. Still, you’d need to file IRS Form 709. And the amount that spills over decreases your lifetime gift and estate tax exclusion of $13.99 million for 2025 or $27.98 million for married couples. Once you go past those limits, you may face taxes.

However, the strategy of gifting substantially can shrink the size of your estate over time and potentially reduce or avoid the estate tax as a result.

Stay Organized

Even if you have the advantages of safeguards like trusts and durable power of attorney, one thing that could force the courts to step in is lack of information.

So, make sure you keep all important digital and physical documents safe and secure. Be sure to list all assets and asset types. Keep all account numbers, pins, passwords, and other crucial data safe and accessible for your agent or a trusted family member. Keep physical documents like financial statements, deeds, and titles in fireproof safes or something just as effective.

The Bottom Line

Without a solid plan, you may leave behind some stress for your family, and your assets may not be distributed as you would have thought fit. But you can take action to prevent this today. You can look into revocable living trusts, durable powers of attorney, wills, and more to create a sound estate-planning strategy. But as these tasks can be complex, it’s crucial that you design your plan with the help of a qualified estate-planning attorney.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2025. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

This week saw Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky boast for the first time that his military can conduct long-range strikes on Russian territory using weapons made within Ukraine, and this means he doesn't need to coordinate these attacks with the United States.

His remarks came in response to a Wall Street Journal report claiming that the US has quietly established a process requiring the Pentagon's prior approval for Ukrainian long-range strikes using American-supplied weapons. This policy has reportedly blocked such strikes for several months, at a moment President Trump is trying to get the sides to the peace table.

An unnamed official cited by the WSJ said that since late spring this internal Pentagon approval process has effectively blocked Ukraine from using the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to hit targets inside Russia.

While speaking alongside Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier this week, Zelensky emphasized that no such restrictions were under discussion and declared that Ukraine uses its own weapons for attacks on Russian territory.

"At the moment, we are using our long-range domestically produced weapons, and we haven’t been discussing such matters with the US lately. There was a time when there were different signals regarding our retaliatory strikes after their (Russian) attacks on our energy system," Zelensky said.

This followed Zelensky last Thursday unveiling the 'Flamingo' cruise missile, reported in The Guardian as follows:

Ukraine’s president announced the huge missile, known as Flamingo, could strike targets as far as 3,000km (1,864 miles) away. “The missile has undergone successful tests. It is currently our most successful missile,” Zelenskyy told reporters. Mass production could begin by February, he added.

This kind of range would bring the Moscow area within striking distance. If Kiev decides to target the Russian capital with cruise missiles - this would likely cause Putin order that Kiev get pounded even harder. 

Throughout well over three years of grinding war, the Russian military has still not directly targeted top-level government buildings in Kiev, or military and intelligence HQs there. That could all soon change.

Business Insider on test-firing video of the Flamingo: I"n the clip, the Flamingo is seen rail-mounted on a canted platform before it is fired. The missile starts climbing upward almost immediately after launch."

Certainly the White House wants to see some kind of peace deal take effect before things escalate to that point, but neither side appears in the mood for compromise. And given Russia has the clear battlefield momentum, it has little reason to back off Putin's maximal conditions.

* * *

Find it at ZeroHedge Store - on sale for a limited time: https://t.co/Tp6pmBpE4Z

— ZeroHedge Store (@ZeroHedgeStore) August 25, 2025

Authored by Jeffrey S. Passel and Jens Manuel Krogstad via Pew Research Center,

In the years after the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. immigration policy changes fueled a sharp rise in both legal and illegal immigration. Lawful admissions jumped, as did encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border between migrants and U.S. authorities.

The number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States reached an all-time high of 14 million in 2023 after two consecutive years of record growth, according to a new Pew Research Center estimate. The increase of 3.5 million in two years is the biggest on record. Data from 2023 is the most recent available for developing a comprehensive and detailed estimate.

The label “unauthorized immigrants” captures a complex array of statuses, including immigrants who entered the U.S. legally. While the label is not perfect, it groups together immigrants living in the country with impermanent, precarious statuses. The term has been used for decades by researchers who develop estimates of the population and is generally used in this report.

The increase from 2021 to 2023 was driven primarily by growth in the number of unauthorized immigrants who were living in the U.S. with some protections from deportation, such as immigrants paroled into the country and asylum seekers. About 6 million immigrants without full legal status had some protection from deportation in 2023, up from 2.7 million in 2021. In 2007, when the total unauthorized immigrant population was at its previous high (12.2 million), about 500,000 had some protection from deportation.

The total number with temporary protections from deportations increased after 2021 following policy changes made by the Biden administration that allowed many immigrants to arrive in the U.S. with protected status and others to gain protection shortly after arriving.

Unauthorized immigrants with some protection from deportation accounted for more than 40% of those without full legal status in 2023. These protections can be, and in some cases have been, removed by the federal government, sometimes with little notification.

To understand which groups are considered unauthorized immigrants in this analysis, read “Who are unauthorized immigrants?” later in this report.

In 2023, unauthorized immigrants accounted for 27% of all U.S. immigrants, up from 22% in 2021. The group’s share of the U.S. population increased from 3.1% to 4.1% during this time.

Changes to the unauthorized immigrant population, 2024-25

Through early 2024, the overall unauthorized immigrant population continued to grow at a record pace, according to a Center review of preliminary and incomplete data sources. After mid-2024, policy decisions spanning the Biden and Trump administrations again changed this population. Growth slowed considerably in the last half of 2024 after the Biden administration stopped accepting asylum applications at the border and paused parole programs.

In 2025, the unauthorized immigrant population has probably started to decline, due in part to increased deportations and reduced protections under the Trump administration.

As of mid-2025, the unauthorized immigrant population likely remains above 2023 levels. Still, we won’t know the full impact of these policy shifts until more complete data becomes available.

Learn more about how the unauthorized immigrant population may have changed in 2024-25, according to preliminary, incomplete data.

Overview of this report

This report explores the dynamics shaping the population of immigrants living in the U.S. without full lawful status. It provides a complete estimate and profile for the unauthorized immigrant population in 2023 based on the best data currently available. The report also provides a look at how the population has since changed, sketching out trends based on incomplete data from 2024 and the first half of 2025 – though complete estimates are not yet possible due to these limitations.

The new estimates for 2023 (and revised estimates for 2022) are based on Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the most recent data available for a fully detailed estimate of unauthorized immigration. The survey data for these two years has been supplemented to take into account recent Census Bureau revisions of their data on the magnitude of immigration to the U.S.

Read “How we did this” for more.

Which groups of U.S. unauthorized immigrants had deportation protection in 2023?

Several groups of unauthorized immigrants had some protections from deportation in July 2023:

• Asylum applicants (2.6 million)
• Those who entered the U.S. legally after receiving parole (700,000)
• Victims of crimes or violence (700,000)
• Those with Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which is available to migrants in the U.S. from countries facing war, natural disasters or other crises (650,000)
• Enrollees in Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), which is available to those who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children (600,000)

Another 1.0 million migrants encountered by U.S. Border Patrol were released into the U.S., typically with orders to appear in immigration court. These immigrants have some protections from deportation while their cases are resolved, but their protections are more limited.

Individuals in these groups are counted as part of the “unauthorized” immigrant population because their deportation protections are temporary and can quickly change. For example, the Trump administration in 2025 has:

• Removed deportation protections and rescinded work permits for about 500,000 parolees from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
• Allowed protections to expire for about 350,000 Venezuelans and 350,000 Haitians with TPS.
• Stopped accepting asylum applications from immigrants who enter the country at the U.S.-Mexico border, a move that has been challenged in court.
• Largely stopped releasing immigrants into the U.S. who are encountered at the border.

The vast majority of unauthorized immigrants – more than 12 million in 2023 – either entered the U.S. illegally or overstayed a visa. Another 2 million entered the U.S. legally and were paroled or released into the country. Protection from deportation provided by programs such as DACA, TPS or asylum are only available to immigrants already in the U.S.

What is the composition of the U.S. immigrant population?

As of 2023, unauthorized immigrants represented 4.1% of the total U.S. population and 27% of the foreign-born population.

Meanwhile, the lawful immigrant population grew steadily from 24.1 million in 2000 to 37.8 million in 2023. The growth was driven by a rapid increase in the number of naturalized citizens, from 10.7 million to 23.8 million. The number of lawful permanent residents largely held steady at 11.9 million. As a result, in 2023, almost half (46%) of all immigrants in the country were naturalized U.S. citizens.

U.S. immigrant population trends

The overall U.S. immigrant population reached an all-time high of more than 53 million in January 2025, accounting for a record 15.8% of the U.S. population. However, growth slowed substantially starting in early 2024, and the number declined by more than 1 million between January and June 2025, according to data from the Current Population Survey.1 This would be the first sustained drop in the U.S. immigrant population since the 1960s.

What countries do unauthorized immigrants come from?

The number of U.S. unauthorized immigrants born in countries other than Mexico grew from 6.4 million in 2021 to 9.7 million in 2023.

By contrast, the unauthorized immigrant population born in Mexico grew only a little from 2021 to 2023, returning to its 2019 level of about 4.3 million.

Though Mexico remains the country where the most unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. are from, it accounted for 30% of the nation’s unauthorized immigrants living here in 2023. Mexicans represented a majority of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. through 2016; their share in 2023 was by far the smallest share on record.

After Mexico, the countries with the largest unauthorized immigrant populations in the U.S. in 2023 were:

• Guatemala (850,000)
• El Salvador (850,000)
• Honduras (775,000)
• India (680,000)

In 2023, Venezuela was the country of birth for 650,000 U.S. unauthorized immigrants. This population has seen particularly fast growth, from 55,000 in 2007 to 195,000 in 2021 and 650,000 in 2023.

Other countries have also had large increases in the number of unauthorized immigrants in recent years. Totals from Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Ukraine and Peru all more than doubled from 2021 to 2023.

The number of unauthorized immigrants from Cuba grew from less than 5,000 in 2019 to 100,000 in 2021 and 475,000 in 2023. This increase came after Cubans could no longer enter the U.S. legally without a visa, a change in policy made in 2017 under the Obama administration. Much of the recent growth in unauthorized immigrant populations from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Ukraine was due to parole programs instituted under President Joe Biden and that were ended by mid-2025.

El Salvador, India, China and the Philippines are the only countries to show no significant change in their U.S. unauthorized immigrant populations between 2021 and 2023 (among countries with more than 150,000 unauthorized immigrants).

World regions

The number of unauthorized immigrants from almost every world region increased since 2021. The largest increases were from South America (1.3 million), Central America (725,000) and the Caribbean (575,000).

Detailed table: Unauthorized immigrant population by region and selected country of birth (and margins of error), 1990-2023 (Excel)

What states do unauthorized immigrants live in?

The six states with the largest unauthorized immigrant populations in 2023 were:

• California (2.3 million)
• Texas (2.1 million)
• Florida (1.6 million)
• New York (825,000)
• New Jersey (600,000)
• Illinois (550,000)

These states have consistently had the most unauthorized immigrants since at least 1980. However, in 2007, California had 1.2 million more unauthorized immigrants than Texas. Today, it has only about 200,000 more.

The U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has also become considerably less geographically concentrated over time. In 2023, the top six states were home to 56% of the nation’s unauthorized immigrants, down from 80% in 1990.

States where the unauthorized immigrant population grew the most

The unauthorized immigrant populations grew in 32 states from 2021 to 2023. The four states with the biggest growth were:

• Florida (+700,000)
• Texas (+450,000)
• California (+425,000)
• New York (+230,000)

Eight additional states had their unauthorized immigrant populations increase by 75,000 or more: New Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Ohio.

Oregon is the only state with a population of more than 100,000 unauthorized immigrants where this group did not increase compared with 2021.

Even with these increases in recent years, six states had smaller unauthorized immigrant populations in 2023 than in 2007, the previous peak – Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, New York and Oregon.

Detailed table: Unauthorized immigrant population for states (and margins of error), 1990-2023 (Excel)

Detailed table: Unauthorized immigrants and characteristics for states, 2023 (Excel)

How many households include unauthorized immigrants?

A record 7.5 million U.S. households included unauthorized immigrants in 2023. They represented 5.6% of 133 million households nationwide. Overall, a total of 26 million people – including about 14 million unauthorized immigrants – lived in these households.

• In 88% of these households, either the householder or their spouse was an unauthorized immigrant.
• Almost 70% of these households are considered “mixed status,” meaning that they also contained U.S.-born residents or lawful immigrants. Most of the U.S.-born residents are children of unauthorized immigrants.

The share of households that include an unauthorized immigrant varies considerably across states. Nevada (10%) had the highest share in 2023, followed by California, Texas, Florida and New Jersey (9% each). In Montana, West Virginia and Vermont, about 1% of households included an unauthorized immigrant.

How many children in the U.S. have unauthorized immigrant parents?

About 4.6 million children under 18 born in the U.S. lived with an unauthorized immigrant parent in 2023, up from 4.0 million in 2021 and below the previous high of 4.9 million in 2016. As of 2023, these children accounted for about 75% of all minor children living with an unauthorized immigrant parent.

(In 2023, about 300,000 babies were born in the U.S. to an unauthorized immigrant, up from about 200,000 in 2021.)

In addition, about 1.5 million children under 18 were unauthorized immigrants in 2023. This group nearly doubled since 2021, and much of the rapid growth in the overall unauthorized immigrant population was due to families arriving in the U.S. with their foreign-born children. The 2023 total matches the previous high in 2005.

Another 1.4 million adults born in the U.S. lived with at least one parent who is an unauthorized immigrant in 2023, compared with 1.2 million in 2021 and only about 200,000 in 2005.2

How long have unauthorized immigrants lived in the U.S.?

A record number of unauthorized immigrants have been in the U.S. for a relatively short time due to the rapid growth in the overall unauthorized population since 2021. In 2023, more than 4.2 million unauthorized immigrant adults had been in the U.S. for less than five years, up from 1.8 million in 2021. The 2023 figure is more than double the number in any year from 2010 to 2019.

A similar number of unauthorized immigrant adults – 4.3 million – had lived in the U.S. for 18 years or more in 2023. This is up slightly from 2021, when the total was 4.1 million.

Another 3.8 million unauthorized immigrant adults had lived in the U.S. for 5 to 17 years in 2023, roughly the same as in 2021.

How many unauthorized immigrants are in the labor force?

The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. workforce grew from 7.8 million in 2021 to a record 9.7 million in 2023.

Unauthorized immigrants represented 5.6% of the U.S. workforce in 2023, a new high. The previous peak was 5.4% in 2007.

Since 2003, unauthorized immigrants have made up 4.4% to 5.6% of all U.S. workers, a relatively narrow range.

The share of the U.S. workforce made up of unauthorized immigrants is higher than their 4.1% share of the total U.S. population. That’s because the unauthorized immigrant population includes relatively few children or elderly adults, groups that tend not to be in the labor force.

Detailed table: Unauthorized immigrants in the labor force for states, 2023 (Excel)

The share of unauthorized immigrants in the workforce varied across states in 2023. Nevada (9%), Florida (9%), New Jersey (9%), Texas (9%), California (8%), Maryland (7%) and Massachusetts (7%) had the highest shares, while 1% or less of workers in Maine, Vermont, West Virginia and Montana were unauthorized immigrants.

What types of jobs do unauthorized immigrants have?

Unauthorized immigrants work in essentially every sector of the economy. The industries with the highest shares of unauthorized immigrants in their workforce in 2023 were construction (15%), agriculture (14%), leisure and hospitality (8%), other services (7%), and professional/business services (7%).

The major occupations with the highest shares of unauthorized immigrants were farming (24%), construction (19%) and service occupations (9%). There are no occupations where unauthorized immigrants represent a majority of workers. But in some detailed occupations, unauthorized immigrants represented 25% to about 40% of all workers in 2023. Most of these jobs are in the construction sector.

Note: The remaining two sections of this report provide a look ahead to what has happened since 2023, as well as additional context and details about the primary analysis above.

What has happened to the unauthorized immigrant population since 2023?

The nation’s unauthorized immigrant population is dynamic. The estimate of 14 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States as of July 2023 is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey (ACS), the most recent version available. Since 2023, the population has continued to change. But surveys and other federal government data sources only give us a rough idea of what has happened to the unauthorized immigrant population in 2024 and 2025. Still, these sources do hint at some changes since July 2023.

Administrative data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) provides counts through November 2024 of entries of certain migrants that are considered part of the unauthorized immigrant population, specifically releases at the border and the entry of some parolees. DHS also has data on admission of lawful immigrants (LPRs) through December 2024. These two sources can track changes in the lawful foreign-born population and a large part of the unauthorized immigrant population.

The Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey (CPS),3 used to measure unemployment, provides information on the size of the immigrant population. However, its sample is not large enough and the survey does not have the data needed to develop an estimate of the unauthorized immigrant population that is comparable to the ACS-based estimates. Still, a consistent series of monthly CPS data is available for July 2023 to December 2024 to track changes in the immigrant population. Similarly, the monthly CPS is also available for January 2025 through June 2025. But because of some methodological changes in the survey, the 2025 estimates cannot be compared directly with the 2024 estimates.

The U.S. unauthorized immigrant population likely continued to increase rapidly through at least mid-2024, reaching new highs, according to available government data. Growth continued in the second half of 2024 at a much slower pace and may have stopped entirely as inflows dropped dramatically due to Biden administration policy changes (described below).

From January to June 2025, the unauthorized immigrant population likely declined, possibly by as much as 1 million. However, as of July 2025, the unauthorized immigrant population almost surely remains higher than in July 2023, when we estimated that the population stood at 14 million. As more data is released, more precise estimates for 2024 and 2025 will be possible.

The sections below provide the details behind these conclusions.

Immigrant inflows, 2023-24

From July 2023 through June 2024, more than 2.1 million immigrants were released or paroled into the U.S. These groups are considered a part of the unauthorized immigrant population. The largest group, U.S. Border Patrol releases, accounted for more than 1.1 million new arrivals of unauthorized immigrants. Another 1 million were paroled into the U.S. at the southwestern border and through the CHNV (Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela) and U4U (Uniting for Ukraine) parole programs. (Read “Who are unauthorized immigrants?” for more on these groups and programs.)

When making a new estimate of the unauthorized immigrant population, we cannot simply add these new immigrants to the previous estimate.4 However, the large inflows imply continued, rapid growth past our 14 million estimate for mid-2023.

After July 2024, there was a dramatic slowdown in these measured inflows. About 400,000 migrants were released or paroled into the U.S. from July to December 2024, a reduction of more than 60% in average monthly entries from the previous year. The main reduction came from a change in practice by the Border Patrol, which released many fewer migrants into the U.S., about 60,000, during these six months, compared with more than 1.1 million during the preceding 12 months. In addition, the Biden administration stopped admitting migrants under the CHNV parole program in August 2024. Only about 35,000 were admitted after July 2024, which was about 10% of the total from the previous 12 months. By November 2024, there were no CHNV paroles.

Data on admissions of these groups is not currently available for 2025.5

The Census Bureau estimated total net immigration for July 2023-June 2024 at 2.8 million, based in part on the releases and paroles just noted. This figure represents a notable increase over the migration estimates for 2021-22 (1.7 million) and 2022-23 (2.3 million). Since legal immigration did not increase markedly over recent years, the large estimated inflow for 2023-24 was almost entirely attributable to unauthorized immigration, continuing the trend seen in our estimates of this population for 2021-23.

Foreign-born population, 2023-24

The U.S. foreign-born population grew from 48.5 million in July 2023 to 51.6 million in March 2024, according to the monthly CPS – an unprecedented increase of 3 million immigrants in nine months. Much of this growth was driven by the admission of unauthorized immigrants with temporary deportation protections. The monthly data paired with the inflow estimates noted earlier imply rapid growth in the unauthorized immigrant population at least through March 2024.

After this increase, the foreign-born population hardly changed in the last nine months of 2024. By December 2024, the foreign-born population of 51.8 million was only 125,000 larger than in March 2024. The slowdown in growth is consistent with the large drop in arrivals (inflows) during the second half of the year. This pattern suggests that the unauthorized immigrant population grew very little by the end of 2024 after the large increase through the first part of the year, and it may even have declined very slightly from an earlier peak in 2024.

Foreign-born population, 2025

Although monthly CPS data is available for 2025, it cannot be used to measure change in the foreign-born population from 2024 into 2025 because the Census Bureau revised its method for estimating the U.S. population.6 However, the CPS can be used to track the size of the immigrant population from month to month in 2025 and going forward.

In January 2025, the CPS measured the foreign-born population at 53.3 million, or 15.8 percent of the U.S. population – both all-time highs. Since then, the CPS data shows a decline during the first six months of 2025, especially after March. By June 2025, the foreign-born population was 51.9 million, a drop of about 1.5 million from the peak in January.

The CPS does not tell us the sources of the decline, but most of the drop is likely due to a fall in the unauthorized immigrant population. The federal government has started to increase deportations, and some immigrants – both unauthorized and lawful – have left the U.S. on their own. It is also possible that some of the population decline is due to technical reasons such as a decrease in response rates to the survey.

(Return to main report)

Who are unauthorized immigrants?

The U.S. unauthorized immigrant population includes any immigrants not in the following groups:

1. Lawful permanent residents (green card holders)
2. Refugees formally admitted to the United States
3. People granted asylum
4. Former unauthorized immigrants granted legal residence under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act
5. Naturalized U.S. citizens who entered under categories 1-4 (above)
6. Temporary legal residents under specific visa categories, such as those for foreign students, guest workers and intracompany transfers.

Read Methodology A: Unauthorized immigrant estimates for more details.

Many immigrants included in Pew Research Center’s estimate of “unauthorized” immigrants have specific immigration statuses that protect them from deportation. In some cases, as described below, unauthorized immigrants have received permission to live or work in the U.S. As of July 2023, about 6 million immigrants had protections. They are included in the Center’s estimate of 14 million unauthorized immigrants. These protected immigrants account for about 40% of our 2023 national estimate.

Although these immigrants may be protected from deportation, their status could change if immigration policy shifts. Other organizations and the federal government also include these immigrants in their estimates of the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population.

Types of temporary permissions

Unauthorized immigrants can receive temporary permission to be in the U.S. in the following ways:

Asylum applicants

Individuals who have applied for asylum and are awaiting a ruling are not legal residents but cannot be deported until their asylum claim is adjudicated. There are two kinds of asylum claims:

• Defensive asylum: Applications are filed by individuals facing deportation or removal from the U.S. These are processed by the Justice Department’s Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR). An estimated 1.3 million immigrants had pending defensive asylum applications as of July 2023.
• Affirmative asylum: Applications are filed by people not in deportation proceedings. These are processed by the Department of Homeland Security’s U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). An estimated 1.2 million individuals were awaiting decisions on more than 900,000 applications as of mid-2023.

Temporary Protected Status (TPS)

About 650,000 unauthorized immigrants had TPS in July 2023. This status provides protection from deportation to individuals who cannot safely return to their country because of civil unrest, violence or natural disaster. Most also have permission to work in the U.S. Some recipients from El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua have had TPS for over 20 years. If conditions in the home country improve, TPS can be allowed to expire or revoked.

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)

DACA offers protection from deportation and work permits to individuals who were brought to the U.S. as children before 2007. As of July 2023, there were an estimated 610,000 active DACA beneficiaries, mostly from Mexico. By March 2025, this had dropped to 525,000.

Humanitarian parole into the U.S.

Immigrants outside the United States who are not otherwise eligible for admission can apply for admission to the U.S. on a temporary basis “for urgent humanitarian reasons of significant public benefit.” Parolees undergo a clearance process, generally have sponsors and can apply for work authorization. Parole is for a set period of time and can be revoked.

President Joe Biden authorized four parole programs that significantly increased the number of immigrants coming to the U.S. after 2021, adding to the unauthorized immigrant population:

Operation Allies Welcome (OAW): This parole program for Afghan nationals who could not get other kinds of visas to enter the U.S. started on Aug. 29, 2021, after the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan. In total, about 88,500 Afghan nationals were admitted and received work authorization under the OAW program between July 31, 2021, and Sept. 30, 2023. Some have since applied for asylum and some for TPS. Their status had been renewed, though the Trump administration has proposed ending the program.

Uniting for Ukraine (U4U): This program started in April 2022 to allow Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion to come to the U.S. on a temporary basis. By mid-2023, about 130,000 Ukrainians had been paroled into the U.S. under U4U, a total that grew to 240,000 by the end of 2024.

Parole processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans (CHNV): This program allowed individuals from these four countries to apply for admission while outside the U.S. because of conditions in their home country. Before being accepted, applicants needed to have a U.S.-based sponsor, pass a background check and pay for travel to the U.S. They were then allowed to enter the U.S. for two years; these paroles could be extended. Admissions began for Venezuelans in October 2022 with the other three nations added in January 2023. The program admitted up to 30,000 migrants each month.

By July 2023, about 160,000 immigrants had come to the U.S. under CHNV parole. The Biden administration stopped accepting new applications in August 2024, and by November 2024 no new CHNV parolees were admitted. All told, about 530,000 migrants came with CHNV parole. The Supreme Court upheld the Trump administration’s decision to revoke CHNV’s deportation protection in May 2025.

Office of Field Operations (OFO) paroles: In late 2020, U.S. Border Control (USBP) saw a major rise in migrant encounters, with the number more than doubling to greater than 70,000 per month; by mid-2021, they had tripled to about 210,000 per month. To ease pressure on border facilities, the Border Patrol, through the OFO, began paroling immigrants into the United States. Humanitarian paroles by OFO averaged less than 2,000 per month from January 2017 through March 2022. Numbers jumped to more than 20,000 through early 2023 and to about 45,000 per month through the end of 2024. The computer app CBP One, activated by USBP in January 2023, enabled migrants to make appointments in advance.

Individuals paroled into the U.S. by OFO have temporary protection from deportation for two years and can apply for work authorization, asylum and other immigration statuses. By mid-2023, about 340,000 immigrants had temporary protection from deportation through OFO paroles; by the end of 2024, this number almost tripled to 980,000.

Releases by U.S. Border Partrol

In response to the growing number of border encounters, USBP increased the total number of expulsions and repatriations, but this did not relieve pressures at the southwest border. While USBP had always released some of the migrants it encountered into the U.S., these numbers increased markedly from 2021 to 2023. Starting in mid-2021, releases averaged about 50,000 per month for the next year, and fell to 15,000 in February 2023. Releases then peaked at more than 190,000 in December 2023 and remained historically high until July 2024. For the remainder of 2024, releases dropped to an average of about 10,000 per month.

These individuals do not have the same level of protection from deportation as migrants paroled into the U.S. They are generally instructed to appear before an immigration judge or report to immigration authorities at a later date. They have a year to apply for asylum or other types of temporary protection. The Biden administration generally did not attempt to deport these individuals so, for our estimates, we assume that individuals released into the U.S. are protected from deportation for slightly more than a year. As of mid-2023, there were about 1 million immigrants in this group.

Victims of crime, human trafficking and abuse

U.S. immigration law includes protections for people who have experienced trafficking, abuse or violence. These individuals can stay temporarily in the U.S. with protection from deportation and often later apply for a green card. They are counted in our unauthorized immigrant population if they have not yet received lawful permanent resident status.

• T nonimmigrant visa. For certain victims of human trafficking. These visa holders can remain in the U.S. on a temporary basis for four years and then adjust to lawful permanent resident status. Nearly 25,000 individuals had a T visa or a pending application in mid-2023, according to estimates based on U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data. By the end of 2024, this group had grown to more than 55,000.
• U nonimmigrant visa. For “victims of certain crimes who have suffered mental or physical abuse and are helpful to law enforcement in the investigation or prosecution of criminal activity.” A U visa holder can remain in the U.S. for three years and then adjust to permanent resident status. About 450,000 immigrants had a U visa or a pending application for one in mid-2023 and were protected from deportation. As of the end of 2024, there were about 520,000.
• Special Immigrant Juveniles (SIJ). For immigrants under 21 years old who are the victims of abuse, neglect or abandonment by their parents. These individuals are protected from deportation while their application is being processed. After approval, they obtain lawful permanent resident status (a green card). Almost 140,000 individuals enrolled in SIJ were waiting for their green cards in mid-2023. This group had grown to more than 220,000 by the end of 2024, due to processing delays and backlogs for admission.
• Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) green card. Provides access to green cards for “victims of battery or extreme cruelty” by spouses, former spouses, parents or children who are U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents. Applicants are protected from deportation until their case is decided and those approved are protected until they acquire lawful permanent residence. As of mid-2023, there were about 90,000 immigrants waiting for their case to be heard; by the end of 2024, this number had almost doubled to 170,000.

Summary

There are about 6 million unauthorized immigrants with some degree of protection as of July 2023. The groups with temporary protection from deportation described above total just over 6.2 million individuals. However, some individuals can appear in more than one category. For example, some paroled into the U.S. (say, OAW Afghans) may also acquire another status like TPS. While exact overlap is not known, most newly arrived groups likely do not appear in multiple categories. We estimate about 250,000 migrants are counted more than once. This leaves a total of about 6 million unauthorized immigrants with some degree of protection from deportation.

Switzerland would offer diplomatic immunity to Russian President Vladimir Putin if he were to travel there for potential peace negotiations with Ukraine, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis announced Tuesday.

"We have always expressed our willingness, but of course it depends on the major powers' willingness to engage," Cassis stated, after Monday's White House announcements playing up a meeting between Putin and Zelensky soon.

But the Kremlin itself hasn't confirmed there will actually be such a meeting anytime time soon, with FM Lavrov on Wednesday signaling this could also happen in the future when each side was ready for a finalized peace deal.

The White House seems to be too out front on its 'confirmed' declarations, which aren't confirmed from the Moscow side at all. Trump seems to be pressing hard for a major diplomatic 'win' - but without all the sides being fully on board just yet.

French President Emmanuel Macron suggested Tuesday that Geneva could serve as the location for such talks, while also Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani agreed in calling the Swiss city "a suitable venue."

Of course, Putin has had an International Criminal Court arrest warrant hanging over him since 2023 over alleged war crimes related to the invasion of Ukraine.

This is a similar case with Netanyahu - as both leaders have seen their travel somewhat restricted as a slew of European countries might move to arrest them. Netanyahu and Putin have been having to avoid most travel to basically anywhere in the West.

Putin had earlier in the war refrained from attending a BRICS summit in South Africa due to the ICC warrant. South Africa was feeling pressure from the ICC at the time over the possible trip.

Switzerland's FM Cassis has explained that his government reviewed the legal implications and concluded that due to its unique status and Geneva's role as the European hub for the United Nations, it has the ability to host a summit which would be for the sake of peace and not move on the arrest warrant.