There are 3 ways forward for a company like Thames Water. There can be a deal between Regulator and the current shareholders and management agreeing an affordable investment programme and realistic customer charges for the task. There could be a move to force a sale to new shareholders by undermining the current company, with a possible period of management by a government Administrator. There could be nationalisation.
Nationalisation is a particularly bad idea. Existing shareholders would need to be compensated for the enforced sale of their shares. State confiscation of the assets of the UK Universities Pension Scheme and the Ontario Municipal Pension Scheme would be contentious. To do so could put off the many investors and supporters of private finance activities that the UK relies on. University teachers in the UK might demand compensation for their pension scheme.
After deciding what to pay for the assets the state would then need to find additional money to increase the investment spend. It would all add up to a very large bill for taxpayers. In the past nationalised industries have also been good at running up large losses taxpayers have to pay. Current state enterprises, the Post Office and HS 2 have shown just how huge the losses and cost overruns can be.
Tipping a water company into Administration also comes with considerable costs as well as reputational damage to the UK as a good place to invest. The special Administration of an electricity company was costly for taxpayers.
To those who think the company should be bankrupted and the debts written off and not met, I remind you that the government and Labour rely heavily in their forward plans on harnessing large sums of private capital to provide the extra homes, energy capacity, broadband and the rest we need. If the country got a reputation for stealing assets off investors and undermining businesses by unrealistic price controls and regulations that would get a lot dearer and more difficult to pull off.
The best way forward is a negotiated settlement between the company and the Regulator. As most want faster progress with expanding capacity of our dirty water pipes there needs to be an increase in spend and in customer contribution. If we want more and better sewers then either customers or taxpayers have to pay more. As it is the same people paying VAT, Income tax and water bills I prefer it to be on water bills. There needs to be a clear link and financial discipline on water companies between revenue and renewal expenditure.
There is the added complication that Thames Water is owned by a holding company that now says it has run out of money. Uk taxpayers and water customers should not bail that company out. It is not itself a highly regulated water monopoly serving UK customers. If they need to tell the shareholders they need to get more money from them or undermine their investment further then that is a matter for them which should not affect the UK state.
A parliamentary co-conspirator just spotted the latest stage of the estate’s restoration and renovation project. Rest assured, if this is genuine, Guido will be FOI’ing the enormous cost of this high quality craftsmanship. Perfect for pointing pansexual Percy at parliamentary porcelain…
UPDATE: A House of Commons spokesperson has told Guido that they are “currently looking into the matter”. […] Read the rest
Following the very sad demise at such a young age of James Brokenshire we now have another Conservative Westminster by-election defence in the offing. The GE2019 outcome from Old Bexley and Sidcup makes it look a very safe seat indeed and it would be a sensation if the Tories do not hold on.
There are two figures I always check first when a specific constituency comes into play – how did it vote in the 2016 Referendum and what proportion of the electorate are graduates. The Brexit figure was Leave at an estimated 63.2% while the proportion of graduates at the 2011 Census 26.85% which makes it 320th in all Commons seats.
It is very hard to see Labour at the moment being able to mount a competitive challenge here but the LDs, no doubt, will fancy their chances of getting a good result. The key geographical factor for Ed Davey’s party is that this is just on the border of Greater London making it more accessible to the hundreds of volunteers who would be needed to make an impact each day during the campaign.
My guess is that the party will mount a serious campaign but this is a very hard one for it to pull off. Getting a good second place ahead of Labour could be a victory in itself.
The number of people working on the Hinkley Point C power station has grown to 22,000, new figures show this morning.
There are now 6,300 workers on site, compared with 1,500 at the height of the pandemic last year. Final contracts for Hinkley Point C were signed five years ago.
Since then, 3,600 British companies have won contracts on the project. This includes more than 400 businesses in the north of England, where spending so far has reached £1.2 billion.
Managing director Stuart Crooks said: “Hinkley Point C is essential in the fight against climate change and for Britain’s energy security.
“It is delivering on its promise of boosting British jobs, skills and industry right across the country.
“Covid-19 has challenged the project and its suppliers and I am proud of the enormous efforts made to keep the site safe and moving ahead.
“As we emerge from the worst of the pandemic, we can now create more jobs as we step up construction and manufacturing for the next phase of the project.”
Quick calendar note: Turkey’s been added to the UK red list which may have implications for that race, which only recently replaced Canada on the schedule.
In Q1 it wasn’t really a surprise to lose the Haas cars and Latifi. Raikkonen perhaps underperformed to leave at this stage, and Tsunoda cocked up and ended up 16th.
Q2 was interesting because both Aston Martins failed to proceed, whereas both Alpines made it to the top 10. As might be expected, Gasly, Giovinazzi, and Russell also exited. Verstappen’s top time was miles faster than the Mercedes, suggesting he might be favourite for pole.
In the end it was extremely close but Hamilton pipped his Dutch rival by a third of a tenth, notching his 100th pole position. Bottas was a tenth further back. Perez screwed up his first lap and on his solitary run could only rack up the 8th fastest time, almost a second off his team mate. Not good enough.
Almost everyone went slower on their second run, with a big exception being Leclerc (switched from old to new tyres) who put his Ferrari into 4th. The third row is Ocon and Sainz, the Frenchman beating Alonso (his Alpine team mate) by a handy six-tenths. Ricciardo and Perez comprise row four, with Norris (surprisingly) just 9th, ahead of Alonso.
Worth noting I think everyone is on softs to start with. I wonder if that’s because the extreme difficulty passing means the teams really don’t want to lose places at the line.
There’s a chasm of six-tenths between the top 3 and the rest, but Leclerc to Perez is covered by two-tenths (and I don’t think Norris’ pace necessarily is reflected in his time). DNFs in the last three years have been 6, 2, and 1.
Early betting thoughts: Leclerc podium Verstappen lead lap 1 No Safety Car
All else being equal the top three on the grid should also make the podium. Ferrari’s looked good all weekend, however, and may be able to steal past Bottas from the line or benefit if Hamilton/Verstappen tangle. Odds of 3.75 feel too short, however, as the pace advantage of Mercedes may be enough to facilitate a pass even on a circuit where it’s very difficult.
Verstappen is 3.7 to lead lap 1. He’s started well pretty much everywhere this year. Checking my own records for the last few races (2020 is missing, I think I was ill at the time) it seems this is a possible overtake but not as easy as at some places.
From checking Wikipedia it appears races since 2011 have seen safety cars at three events, with one virtual safety car. This year has seen the safety car appear at every race, although last time it was slightly unusual. This may make the odds longer than they should be. No Safety car is only 2.4, which is quite a bit shorter than I anticipated.
In accordance with the principles of the Giant Space Pig Monster, may his astral snout be sated, I then consulted the various other markets in the quest for value.
More than 17.5 classified finishers, 2.1
As noted above, the non-classified finishers in recent races have been 6, 2, and 1. In addition, this year, the figures are 2, 3, and 1. Both suggest a single or pair of non-classified finishers is the likeliest outcome.
That’s the only thing to appeal, so that’s what I’ve backed.
Due to exciting electrical reasons my viewing of the race might be disrupted. If that happens, not sure if I’ll watch highlights instead, or what. So if the post-race tosh is delayed that’s why. Even more delightfully, a separate electricity problem might be addressed tomorrow, so there’s an off-chance the post-race prognostications might not be up until Tuesday.
A starter for 10…..they want to do the Vendée Globe 2024
The huge wave of enthusiasm for the Vendée Globe during and after the last edition means there are more and more solo skippers intimating their plans to do the next race which will start November 2024.
(This article will be updated as more skippers emerge with solid projects).
As we all know the Hartlepool Westminster by-election is taking place on May 6th – the same day as the locals throughout England and the Scottish and Welsh Parliament elections.
Nominations have now closed for the locals and these show that of the 31 council seats up for election in Hartlepool three weeks on Thursday there are just 13 CON candidates.
Now I don’t know what to read into that, and there maybe local factors at play, but it is hard to see this as other than a negative for the Tories who are currently the betting favourite to take the seat from Labour. Not being able to field local candidates does not normally speak well of party organisation on the ground.
If anyone has any local knowledge here it would be great if you you could post on the thread below.
On the betting exchanges the Tories are a 64% chance to take the seat – I’ve put a bit more on LAB who are rated by the markets as a 37% chance.
Can I thank Tory peer and elections expert, Lord Hayward, for his data.
The Dems now odds-on favourites to win both Runoff races
Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history for if the Democrats can take both the Georgia senate seats then the Biden will start his presidency with his party holding the House, the Senate, and of course the White House.
As expected Trump is doing his best to put pressure on all parties in order to avoid him being booted out on January 20th as laid down in the US Constitution. It’s suggested that he desperately wants to stay there primarily because of the fear of possible criminal action when he ceases to be President.
The betting on the Senate elections in Georgia today has moved slowly but surely from the Republicans to take both seats to the Democrats to gain them.
It is hard to see what Pence can do as Vice President to actually thwart Biden’s inauguration in his role tomorrow of chairing the Congress session to receive the results. But that does not mean that Trump is not going to put the pressure on.
Once Congress tomorrow has received the reports of the results of the November 3rd election and accepted then there don’t seems to be other moves that Trump can produce.
There are reports that he’s planning to be in Scotland at the time of Biden’s inauguration.
Recent years have seen a gripping battle between voters and ruling elites. This has reflected disillusion with the relatively poor economic results of all advanced countries since the banking crash. It has also reflected a feeling of many that the elites are acting to restrain free thought, by insisting on fashionable nostra about race, religion, identity to the point where many do not think they can express their views or feelings for fear of abuse or even prosecution.
This site allows dissenting voices, but has discouraged a minority who wish to push the boundaries and make inaccurate generalisations about named individuals or whole groups or races of people. It is never an easy balance to strike. I want to offer somewhere where people can discuss legitimate worries about the conventional wisdom or the cultural dirigisme. I do not wish to provide a home for group abuse or vendettas against individuals.
Recently Kemi Badenoch made an important speech explaining how you can uphold hatred of racism without having to adopt Marxist views or support BLM. The whole Conservative party has made clear its wish to condemn violence against statues or people with views you do not like. We do not want to see elements of our past torn down because past centuries had views on race, colonialism, the role of women and many other issues with which we now disagree. Liz Truss has made a good speech saying that uniting to fight poverty and to open up opportunity is a better way forward than enforcing an ever more politically correct language on us.
I wish to live in a tolerant society where what you think, what you can contribute and how you wish to develop yourself matters, not where you came from or how you are categorised by social scientists and governments. You can ask too many details about a person’s sex, age, background, and ethnicity, and go on to make false assumptions about them based on what you find. The only background that should matter is our shared UK heritage as citizens born or welcomed here. The main challenge for policy makers is not to atone for past errors of history but to provide the best possible opportunities for all of us from every background for our futures.
The Christian message at Christmas is love your neighbour as yourself, and show goodwill towards all. This can spread well beyond the confines of Church congregations to the wider community, to people of all religions and of none.
This morning, Victoria Derbyshire was shamed into apologising for confessing her plans to break current Covid restrictions at Christmas by having 7 people at her family gathering. The comments came in this week’s Radio Times, when she let slip:
“If the rule of six is still in place at Christmas, we’re breaking it to have the rule of seven. We just are. Joining me, my husband and our two boys will be my mum, her partner and my husband’s dad. It’s fine. We’ll do it knowing what the risks are.
We’re not stupid. We’re going to be sensible and buy a thermometer gun. But we have to be together at Christmas. It feels almost irresponsible saying that, but I don’t think we’re alone in feeling that way. We need to see my elderly mum and my husband’s elderly dad. We just do.”
This morning – no doubt under pressure from above – Victoria performed a U-turn, tweeting that her comments had been a “hypothetical” breaching the Rule of Six in a “Tier One area (medium)“. She went on to say “We’ll of course continue to follow whatever rules are in place on Dec 25th”…
I talked about my mum, her partner & my dad-in-law spending it with us – making seven in our home in a Tier One area (medium). It was hypothetical – however I was totally wrong to say it & I’m sorry. We’ll of course continue to follow whatever rules are in place on Dec 25th 2/2
From what Guido can tell, Victoria’s completely in-touch with a nation growing tired of restrictions. While it’s clear the country supports measures in the round, people have become increasingly at ease with gently bending them around the edges. It is a shame to see the BBC covering up a real representative view…
Please stop pretending it's a decision between health or the economy.If health were everything we'd all be living in State-provided individual-family bunkers with air filtration and sanitised Soylent Green meals (hopefully, made from animals and/or plants) – safe from the virus! — Maurizio Morabito (@omnologos) October 8, 2020 from Twitter https://twitter.com/omnologos
British Politics has a history of narrowly avoiding silly department acronyms; Alan Johnson often brings up the anecdote of the time Tony Blair asked him to head up a new “Department of Productivity, Energy, Industry and Science”, which Johnson quickly spotted spelt out “PEnIS“. He also occupied the role of Minister for Higher Education and Lifelong Learning (HELL) and reviewed a proposal for a Sexual Health Advisory Group (SHAG).
The question in Whitehall at the moment is how to pronounce the acronym for the new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). After a YMCA style F.C.D.O. baptism, most are now plumping for FuCaDO (to rhyme with Ocado). Red Lion revellers, however, may have overheard minister James Cleverly* this week loudly proffering his preferred pronunciation for the FCD Office – FuCkeDOff…
The good people of @britainelects try their best to look like unprofessional fools https://t.co/QVrHPS2KUE — Maurizio Morabito (@omnologos) August 28, 2020 from Twitter https://twitter.com/omnologos
Drunken architect, or maybe from Pisa. Or both. https://t.co/Rp5HSq2BCL — Maurizio Morabito (@omnologos) August 10, 2020 from Twitter https://twitter.com/omnologos
New ONS data out today has found that last week an estimated 28,300 people in England had COVID-19. This represents 0.05% of the community population. Far from a second wave, it marks a fall from the previous week’s estimate of 0.07%.
Whereas testing data shows a mild uptick, the number of tests being carried out in the UK has also zoomed up, meaning this data could simply be showing a reduction. It’s worth reading this explanation of why cases are not in fact rising, by the director of Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Carl Heneghan. The new ONS number seem to support his research…
