by Patrick Worrall and Georgina Lee

Zac Goldsmith has been found in breach of Parliamentary rules over a letter he sent to constituents using public funds in October last year.

The Conservative minister told the Parliamentary watchdog he had “never made use of this facility before”.

But last year, FactCheck reported how he sent an earlier letter on House of Commons notepaper, which is paid for by the taxpayer.

The October letter

Now a Conservative peer, Lord Goldsmith was the MP for Richmond Park in October 2019, when he wrote to local voters on House of Commons stationery praising the government for announcing an increase in school funding.

MPs are only allowed to write to constituents using stationery provided to them by the House of Commons if they stick to a strict set of rules.

A local resident who received the letter, which arrived in early November, complained to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, alleging that the letter was “unfairly promoting the Conservative party in the run-up to an election”.

The Commissioner ruled that the October 2019 letter “could reasonably be characterised as party political; promoting local and national Conservative Party policy and highlighting your own work on an issue of local interest shortly before an election.”

After receiving the Commissioner’s judgement, Lord Goldsmith said he “sincerely regret[s] having fallen foul of the rules” in respect of the October letter and apologised. He has agreed to pay back £8,954 to the House of Commons.

Lord Goldsmith, now a Foreign Office minister, also told the watchdog twice that he had “never” used the “facility” before.

Earlier letter

But back in June 2019, FactCheck approached Lord Goldsmith about a different letter to constituents, also unsolicited and written on House of Commons paper.

The letter detailed his efforts to persuade the then-chancellor to drop plans for cuts to national police budgets. The MP also said that he had signed a joint letter calling for more support for police, hosted public meetings on crime, and had been liaising with councillors, the NHS and the police over plans for a local ambulance site.

We asked the then-MP whether the content of the June 2019 letter could be in breach of the rules that forbid using public funds to send “newsletters (including annual reports or general updates to constituents on a range of issues)”.

Lord Goldsmith has never provided us with a comment in respect of the July letter. We understand that he did not consider it to be in breach of the rules.

This is a different rule to the one Lord Goldsmith was found to have breached when he sent the October 2019 letter.

In correspondence with the Parliamentary watchdog, Lord Goldsmith says twice that he had “never” used the “facility” before. If he means that he never sent unsolicited mail to constituents on House-provided stationery, he’s wrong. FactCheck reported that he did just that in June 2019.

We have not seen evidence that anyone complained to the Parliamentary Commissioner about the July 2019 letter and to our knowledge, it has not been investigated.

Lord Goldsmith was contacted for comment before this article was published.

The aviation industry – now in dire straits –  has until recently been paying out dividends. Last week the Chancellor Rishi Sunak warned that airline shareholders needed to exhaust all other avenues before the Treasury considered “bespoke” deals. At the very least before the airlines get any state aid those dividends should be reinvested by the shareholders to support their firms and any aid should be in the form of repayable loans, not subsidies. Guido understands from a Treasury source that Branson, who has indicated Virgin Atlantic wants a bailout, has today personally told Rishi Sunak that he will put up his Necker Island as security…

Politically savvy Sunak made it clear to him in a previous conversation with Branson that since the high street banks are asking small business owners to put up their homes as security before lending, it would be politically impossible to bailout the billionaire if he too was not putting his home on the line. Whether or not this is just bailout PR is another matter. Necker is worth tens of millions, Branson wants hundreds of millions of taxpayers’ money…

The post Branson Offers Necker Island as Security for Virgin Bailout appeared first on Guido Fawkes.

There seem to be two main strands in leadership proposals for Labour. The first is to go back to the damaging topic of Brexit which has splintered them so badly in the last three years, and to present a stronger Remain view. The second is to let the Conservatives deliver Brexit and concentrate instead on the radical social and economic agenda. Neither of these offers an easy route back to popularity.

Many of us see the result of the referendum followed by two elections where pro Brexit parties have won as a clear indication of the country’s view. We decided and we should get on with it.  Trying to do at a later stage  what the Lib Dems failed to do in the 2019 election seems foolish. Dressing it up as a second vote  when they want to have a vote between two kinds of Remain will not convince the Brexit majority. It is also a short term policy. The next General election should take place long after we have left the EU.

Those who want to stress the domestic agenda and develop the work of Corbyn and McDonnell are right to think forwards to a post Brexit world. They also need to ask themselves why was there so much hostility to their generous large offer of “free” services and nationalised businesses in 2019?

The voters in the North and Midlands they lost did not just switch because of Brexit, important though that was. They also felt Labour had forgotten the needs and views of the many  aspirational families who are not well off but who look to government to offer a hand up not a hand out. Labour constantly spoke out for the tiny minority that sleep rough, or the minority that still cannot find a job rather than for the many who pay taxes to pay the state bills and who want more of their own money to spend. Labour also speak for the migrants still to arrive, which worries those facing housing shortages or low wages.

If Labour take away the conclusion that free hand outs and nationalisations are popular, so they need more of them, they may well lose again. Labour last won under Tony Blair, when he tacked a long way towards Conservativism at a time when the Conservatives had messed the economy up thanks to the  European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

I’ve been catching up on sleep after the election, but this is just to add a brief, post-election round up of how the polls performed. In 2015 and 2017 the equivalent posts were all about how the polls had got it wrong, and what might have caused it (even in 2010, when the polls got the gap between Labour and the Conservatives pretty much spot on, there were questions about the overstatement of the Liberal Democrats). It’s therefore rather a relief to be able to write up an election when the polls were pretty much correct.

The majority of the final polls had all the main parties within two points, with Ipsos MORI and Opinium almost spot on – well done both of them. The only companies that really missed the mark were ICM and ComRes, who understated the Tories and overstated Labour, meaning they had Conservative leads of only 6 and 5 points in their final polls.

My perception during the campaign was that much of the difference between polling companies showing small Conservative leads and those companies showing bigger leads was down to how and if they were accounting for false recall when weighting using past vote – I suspect this may well explain the spread in the final polls. Those companies that came closest were those who either do not weight by past vote (MORI & NCPolitics), adjusted for it (Kantar), or used data collected in 2017 (Opinium & YouGov). ComRes and ICM were, as far as I know, both just weighting recalled 2017 past vote to actual 2017 vote shares, something that would risk overstating Labour support if people disproportionately failed to recall voting Labour in 2017.

The YouGov MRP performed less well than in 2017. The final vote shares it produced were all within 2 points of the actual shares, but the seat predictions showed a smaller Tory majority than happened in reality. Ben Lauderdale who designed the model has already posted his thoughts on what happened here. Part of it is simply a function of vote share (a small difference in vote share makes a big difference to seat numbers), part of it was an overstatement of Brexit party support in the key Conservative target seats. Whether that was having too many Brexit supporters in the sample, or Brexit party supporters swinging back to the Tories in the last 48 hours will be clearer once we’ve got some recontact data.

Finally, the 2019 election saw a resurgence of individual constituency polling, primarily from Survation and Deltapoll. Constituency polling is difficult (and I understand has become even more so since the advent of GDPR, as it has reduced the availability of purchasable database of mobile phone numbers from specific areas), and with small sample sizes of 400 or 500 it will inevitably be imprecise. Overall, it performed well this time though – particularly given that many of the constituency polls were conducted in seats you would expect to be hard to poll: unusual seats, or places with independents or high profile defectors standing. David Gauke’s support was understated, for example, and in Putney constituency polling overstated Lib Dem support at the expense of Labour. However, in many places it performed well, particularly the Chelsea & Fulham, Wimbledon, Finchley and Esher & Walton polls.

And with that, I’m off for a nice Christmas break. Have a good Christmas and happy new year.

Goldman Sachs is in talks with the US government to pay a $2bn (£1.5bn) fine and admit guilt to resolve a criminal investigation into its role in the Malaysian 1MDB corruption scandal, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

The bank and US officials have discussed a deal under which a Goldman subsidiary in Asia would plead guilty to violating US bribery laws, the paper reported.

The negotiations also reportedly involve Goldman installing an independent monitor to recommend and oversee changes to its compliance procedures. 

City A.M. has contacted Goldman Sachs for comment.

More to follow.

The post Goldman Sachs reportedly in talks to admit guilt and pay $2bn to settle 1MDB probe appeared first on CityAM.

Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) efforts to thwart billionaire businessman Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s plans to model the shape of his new 4×4 on JLR’s Defender have failed.

The Sunday Times today reported that Ratcliffe, the founder of Ineos, had won his challenge to JLR’s attempt to trademark the Defender’s shape.

Read more: Ineos’ Teeside chemicals factory at risk of closure

Ratcliffe, who is planning to build the Grenadier in Bridgend in south Wales, has been locked in a long-term battle with JLR over the Defender’s design, on which he has had designs for several years.

In 2016, Ineos said that it would treat the Defender’s “much-loved shape like a listed building”. 

The project is designed to fill the gap left by JLR’s car, which ceased production in 2016 because the model no longer met modern environmental and safety standards.

The company is due to release a replacement model, which is being manufactured in Slovakia with the latest technology, in early 2020.

Initially, Ratcliffe tried to buy manufacturing equipment for the Defender from JLR, but was rejected.

The company, which is a subsidiary of Indian automotive firm Tata Motors, then sought to trademark six variants, from the original 1948 model to the 2016 edition.

However, last month the Intellectual Property Office decided that the Defender’s shape was not different enough from that of other 4×4 models for a trademark to be justified. 

JLR is fighting the verdict in the High Court. The company said: “The Defender is an iconic vehicle which is part of Jaguar Land Rover’s past, present and future.

“Its unique shape is recognised around the world, with the heritage shape being protected in other key markets.”

JLR is fiercely protective of its Defender. In 2016, it prevented a Canadian company from using the name ‘Defender’ for an all-terrain vehicle. 

Read more: Jim Ratcliffe names new £600m 4×4 after west London pub

Ratcliffe, who is third on the Sunday Times rich list with £18.2bn, agreed a deal in September to manufacture the new car at Brocastle in Wales, near to a Ford plant which is due to close in 2020 with the loss of 1,700 jobs.

It is hoped that the new project will provide up to 500 jobs.

Main image credit: Getty

The post Jim Ratcliffe wins Jaguar Land Rover challenge over Defender shape appeared first on CityAM.

The @sportingindex Commons seats spread betting markets have been trading today at record highs for the Torieshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/uErgV2qu1w

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2019

With nominations for GE2019 closing at 4pm tomorrow we are just four weeks away from polling day. Postal voting is likely to start perhaps a week and a half later depending on the local authority.

The Tory polling position is nothing like as dominant as it was at this stage in 2017. Indeed four weeks ahead of that election ICM had CON 49%, LAB 27%, Farage’s party 6%, LD 9. TMay’s team was totally dominating the narrative and LAB looked doomed.

Then, of course, came the Tory manifesto with its dementia tax plan and the whole mood of the election totally changed. But just because the narrative changed last time round does not mean it will be the same.

My view is that the final week is going to be crucial because the country could be then so much closer to Brexit actually happening. A majority for Johnson would ensure that the referendum would be honoured while if he fell short then Brexit would be in doubt. If LAB is still some way behind in the polling then the possibility of Corbyn being PM would be far less.

This is likely to matter most in those seats where Remain came out top. Will Tory-voting remain backers stick with their party? The question then is whether possible CON losses in Remainia will be more than offset by gains from LAB.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Tweet

Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth took to the Today Programme this morning to claims there has been ‘a huge increase in the number of cancelled operations’. The only problem is their own research shows that the number of operation cancellations is falling…

Labour’s Freedom of Information request actually shows that the number of cancelled operations fell by 3% this year – from 81,565 in 2017/18 to 78,981 in 2018/19, accounting for 1% of all operations. Labour’s attempted NHS attacks have really not been going down well…

The post Ashworth Flails as Labour’s NHS Attack Comes Unstuck appeared first on Guido Fawkes.

The Chinese orienteering team was disqualified from the Military World Games, which China is hosting, after its troops took first, second, and fourth for women and second for men in the middle-distance competition on Sunday.

The event tests runners on their speed and map-reading abilities by navigating unknown terrain equipped only with a map and compass.

But it later emerged the runners had received illegal assistance from spectators and used previously prepared markings and paths that only their team knew about.

Isn’t the first military rule “know the territory”? Therefore the Chinee won fair and square.

As Guido reported on Friday, despite not being Prime Minister, Corbyn has already managed to spark a major diplomatic row in India following a meeting he had with the left wing Indian Congress Party in which he claimed they had discussed the ongoing issue in Kashmir, which then caused Modi’s party to accuse their opponents of “shameful shenanigans”. The Congress Party hit back, accusing Corbyn of misrepresenting their meeting. Corbyn’s stellar foreign policy record continues…

Now, 110 British Indian organisations have signed a letter addressed to Corbyn, expressing their “deep dismay” at the “one-sided and divisive” emergency motion on Kashmir that was passed at Labour’s conference, which has “sown the seeds of community disharmony within the United Kingdon“. Read the full letter below…

Guido also learns that a big protest is now planned for Wednesday, and Lord Gadhia will today be leading a charge on the issue in Parliament. This issue for Labour isn’t Kash-merely going to go away…

The post 110 British Indian Organisation Claim Corbyn has ‘Sown Seeds of Disharmony’ appeared first on Guido Fawkes.

I have had some criticism for writing about environmental issues. Looking at the blog  stats you found habitats as uninteresting as the Withdrawal Agreement. The two most commented on recent blogs were the  one on how to have  a more prosperous UK out of the EU, and what laws we should change on exit. A good number of readers are interested in waste and plastics.

This is different to the volume  of emails I get as an MP, where environmental ones greatly exceed Brexit ones. Most of them are copies of lobby group emails which people want to route on.

I will continue to write about a range of relevant topics. Those who are only interested in Brexit will find regular update  posts they can respond to.

‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim.

If Boris Johnson does attempt to take the country out of the EU without a deal (and in contradiction to his claims during the 2016 referendum campaign) then I expect Parliament will seize control of the process, just like they did in March to prevent a no deal Brexit. The difference between March 2019 and October 2019 is that we are likely to have a Prime Minister who, unlike Theresa May, is convinced of the merits of a no deal Brexit.

Indeed Boris Johnson has hinted he would ignore the will of the Parliament. So what happens next? It feels pretty much nailed on Parliament will VONC Boris Johnson attempts to become a pound shop Charles I if he tries to prorogue Parliament or ignores the will of Parliament.

I think Parliament would have to take control of the Brexit process by ousting a no dealer Prime Minister and replacing them with someone who isn’t a supporter of no deal, that means a vote of no confidence (VONC) and exploiting the the 14 day period to choose a new Prime Minister under the Fixed-Term Parliament Act.

The other aspect to this is that isn’t just anti no dealers who could VONC a Boris Johnson government. If man attempts to sell out Northern Ireland then it isn’t hard to see the DUP wanting to get rid of the twice divorced Boris Johnson.

The DUP value the future of the United Kingdom a higher priority than Brexit thus the DUP will not risk the Union just so Boris Johnson’s life becomes easier.

Of course there’s also the possibility that the ERG might VONC Boris Johnson like never before if he doesn’t deliver Brexit on Halloween. Many epithets can be applied to Boris Johnson but consistency and principles are not adjectives you’d associate with Mr Johnson, having resigned from the cabinet because of Mrs May’s deal he ultimately voted for Mrs May’s deal.

My view is that we will we see a Parliamentary VONC sometime this year, the only question is it before Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister or after. Only a planned general election might be the only way to stop the first successful Parliamentary VONC since 1979, so I’m taking the 3/10 on Yes that Paddy Power are offering. The attractiveness of this bet is enhanced is that this bet pays out once a VONC occurs, it isn’t dependent on it being a successful VONC.

TSE

I agreed to meet constituents coming to the environmental lobby today. In the end only one came for the meeting, but we had a good conversation with a  number of positive ideas.

My constituent raised the issue of too much plastic getting into the oceans. I explained how the UK government was leading the charge to try to cut plastic use and to stop so much ending up in the seas. The UK can do more to substitute degradable materials for plastic, and cut down  the presence  of single used plastics dramatically. We can also  improve enforcement of laws against litter to ensure more waste is properly contained and processed by our domestic and commercial waste systems.

I was asked about motorcycle noise. I agreed to look in to standards and controls over noisy bikes. The problem of fast bicycles  not using bells to warn pedestrians of their presence was also a matter of concern.

I was shown a number of containers and plastic cutlery items where better design and different materials could make a difference. I agreed to pursue with Wokingham Borough what more they can do to offer green leadership by their own purchases, I explained that the new leadership of the Council is seeking to pursue greener policies and are currently reviewing just these matters. I agreed to write to them encouraging a review of the Council’s practises to offer good leadership on recycling and  the use of suitable materials.

After Theresa May inexplicably gave the worst speech of her career two days before an election where the Tories were already set for a pasting, the mood has darkened so dramatically among the Tories that many have decided they cannot wait any longer to get her out. Dozens of Tory MPs who reluctantly backed her at MV3, including Boris and Dom Raab, have now publicly denounced her new “bold offer” including the promise of a vote on a second referendum and the numbers are still going up and up. 1922 Executive Committee member Nigel Evans will today move a fresh rule change motion before the committee. With the intention of removing the Prime Minister as soon as possible.

Executive Secretary Evans tells Guido that “I’ll move a rule change… it may even be forthwith… with immediate effect as a one off.” Guido hears the committee is more likely than ever before to accept a change in the rules that will shorten the protected time following a leadership no confidence vote from twelve months to six, or even the swift one off scenario, meaning May could be forced from out 12^th June, or even as early as next week. Gove says the WAB itself will be published today – if the details are as ugly as expected it could be the final straw. If she goes before Monday she won’t even pass Gordon Brown’s tenure…

The post Fresh Plot to Oust May on the 1922 Committee Today appeared first on Guido Fawkes.