Lots of theoretical stuff, to which we might want to add the more applied classics, i.e. Bishop, Mackay, Murphy, and Tibshirani. How many can you check off?
Mr. Giuliani said he also objected to the president’s comments about the Crusades at the National Prayer Breakfast this month, in which Mr. Obama said that during the Inquisition, people had “committed terrible deeds in the name of Christ.”
“Now we know there’s something wrong with the guy,” Mr. Giuliani said of the president. “I thought that one sort of went off the cliff.’’
He added: “What I don’t find with Obama — this will get me in more trouble again — is a really deep knowledge of history. I think it’s a dilettante’s knowledge of history.”
The refrain of winter 2015 is "weather-permitting." Amsterdam Falafelshop's second Boston-area location could open this weekend, according to a Twitter reply from the local outpost of the D.C.-based chain.
In addition to five locations around the nation's capital, Amsterdam Falafelshop entered the Boston market with a franchise in Davis Square nearly three years. It has always planned to grow, and last May, a lease signed at 642 Beacon St. was the first step toward the Kenmore location. With renovation of the former Boca Grande space taking place this winter, the team recently joked that they did it on snowshoes.
When the new shop opens, like the other branches, it'll serve up DIY, Netherlands-style meals revolving around the namesake fried chickpea balls.
It looks like a new French restaurant is on its way to Boston, opening in the space where another French dining spot has been.
The Boston Globe is reporting that Petit Robert Bistro is going to be replaced by a new eatery called Josephine, Restaurant Parisien, which will offer "contemporary French cuisine and an Old World-style wine selection." The article mentions that the owner of the new restaurant--Samuel Gosselin--spent part of his youth in France, while the opening executive chef Stefano Quaresima comes from the Columbus Avenue location of Petit Robert Bistro in the city's South End neighborhood. Expect to see Josephine open sometime in late March, according to the Globe.
There is no word on the status of Petit Robert Bistro in the South End or the location in Needham; as soon as we get more information, we will post an update here.
The address for Petit Robert Bistro in Kenmore Square (and the upcoming Josephine) is 468 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215.
$50: a homeless man will scream your name on an Orange line car for 45 minutes during rush hour.
$200: you are given carte blanche to forcibly remove backpacks from passengers and throw them into the pit between platforms from the hours of 6am-9am and 3pm-7pm
Washington state police are investigating a video uploaded to YouTube that captures the death of a man shot repeatedly by police.
The video, taken by a bystander, surfaced Wednesday, a day after the Tuesday shooting death of Antonio Zambrano-Montes, 35.
Pasco Police Department officers were called about 5pm to respond to a report that a man was throwing rocks at a crowded intersection in the town of Pasco, according to the Department Chief Bob Metzger. Two officers were hit by rocks. A Taser did not subdue the man, who had a prior police assault conviction and served six months' jail time for it.
Boston Dynamics, the robotics company that Google bought at the end of 2013, has released a video showing off "Spot," its newest four-legged robot. Boston Dynamics is best known for robots like this, having previously built BigDog (which can hurl a cinder block), the cheetah-like WildCat, and a humanoid called "PetMan."
Spot is a smaller, quieter version of the company's four-legged robots. The bot has been slimmed down to 160 pounds and is about the size of a large dog. Previous walkers from the company used a two-stroke engine to drive a hydraulics system, which meant the robot sounded like a chainsaw or dirt bike while in operation.
Spot swaps out the gas-burner for an electric engine, making it much quieter—this is the first Boston Dynamics video where the people near the robot aren't wearing ear protection. Also, since it's so much smaller and isn't spewing CO2 into the air, Spot is perfectly at home trotting around in an office environment.
The most disturbing part of the Dread Pirate Roberts (DPR) story is also the strangest: how the boss of the Silk Road drugs marketplace attempted to arrange not one but six murders-for-hire.
No murders actually took place. The first "hit" was purchased from an undercover DEA agent and was meant to take out a former Silk Road staffer; it has been charged in Maryland. But the story of the other five came out at the recent New York City trial of Ross Ulbricht, accused of being DPR and developing the Silk Road site, through a remarkable 33-page transcript of private messages that prosecutors harvested from the Silk Road server after it was captured by the government.
The transcript makes for astonishing reading as Dread Pirate Roberts dispenses cash and orders hits without bothering to verify even basic details about those he interacts with. Looking up the mentioned transactions in Bitcoin's blockchain shows that the transfers did in fact take place; whatever happened here, at least one party seems to have thought it was real—even if the dialogue often reads like a bad movie script.
Who is the Dread Pirate Roberts? Last Wednesday, a jury convicted the 30-year-old Ulbricht on seven counts related to drug trafficking and dealing in other illicit goods; evidence gathered from his laptop showed him communicating with others as DPR. (Ulbricht will be sentenced in May.)
As for the other characters in this sordid drama, they remain elusive. There's FriendlyChemist, the man who writes frantic and broken sentences to DPR saying he'll be killed if he doesn't get $500,000—and fast. FriendlyChemist poses as a narcotics middleman who got scammed by a Silk Road seller named LucyDrop.
Then there's RealLucyDrop, who claims that he was one half of the LucyDrop selling duo—but is now on his own after his partner split with the product. He says he knows FriendlyChemist, who is desperate and scared.
Finally, there's redandwhite, the genteel, well-spoken and murderous businessman who FriendlyChemist owes money to. He claims to be a major player in the drug trade, and is also a mentor, educating DPR about the cost and technique of killing one's enemies. DPR, meanwhile, tells redandwhite how to use secure chat channels and how to scrub photo metadata so that a picture of the murdered man can be sent safely once the job is done.
Most of the private messages between these parties span a single month in early 2013, but we know that communication between DPR and redandwhite did not end. Silk Road logs, found on Ulbricht's laptop, confirms their continued communication, likely via the Pidgin secure chat that DPR helped redandwhite set up.
"loaning $500k to r&w to start vending on SR," reads one log entry on Ulbricht's laptop.
Then later, under a longer entry dated with the range "06/05/2013 - 09/11/2013," it's written: "r&w flaked out and disappeared with my 1/2 mil."
Between the initial "hits" and the "loan," Dread Pirate Roberts paid redandwhite US$1.15 million in bitcoin. The payments for the fake hits came from Ulbricht's own bitcoin wallet, one more piece of damning evidence that his defense lawyers couldn't explain away to the jury.
Scamming a pirate?
We've published the "murder chats," in full, below, apart from some addresses of alleged Silk Road buyers. Since there are no bodies, the question arises: exactly what are we reading?
It all seems to have been an elaborate ruse, in which a scam artist (or artists) operating under multiple personas made off with $1 million from the world's most successful online drug dealer, securing more cash in the end than FriendlyChemist had even hoped for at the beginning.
"The bitcoins [from DPR to redandwhite] sat there until August 2013 (which alone should have tipped out the Dread Pirate about a possible scam; if someone wants that amount of money, why would they just sit on it when it was supposed to go pay some hitman?)," said Nicholas Weaver, a University of California-Berkeley computer researcher. The bitcoins were "only then moved away in bulk, split up, and perhaps sent to Bitcoin exchanges or other cashout."
During closing arguments at Ulbricht's, prosecutor Serrin Turner said that Ulbricht "may have fallen for a big con job," but said that only goes to show he wasn't a "criminal super-genius" but rather a criminal who made mistakes—and was willing, eager even, to use violence to protect what he'd built.
"For him, it was trivial," said Turner. "The click of a mouse, send $500,000, half a million dollars' worth of bitcoins, wait for the picture of a dead body. Thank goodness it does not look like any murders occurred. Thank goodness that this man's power trip was stopped before he managed to connect with a true hitman through his criminal website."
FriendlyChemist
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/13/2013
can u please get dread pirate roberts to message me RIGHT away ?
its very serious... a matter of life and death. also has to do with the identities of a dozen
top vendors and thousands of silk road customers
its very important so please get him me right away. i will not talk to anyone but dread
pirate roberts so please do not ask me what it is conserning
DreadPirateRoberts
To: FriendlyChemist, 3/14/2013
What can I do for you?
FriendlyChemist
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/14/2013
what is going on? when are u payin lucydrop? i have been waiting and waiting and he
keeps saying hes waitin for u to pay
u dont know me but i am lucydrops supplier. the only reason i lent lucydrop so much
product is bcuz he showed me the chat logs of u and him talking and how u made him the
#1 seller on silkroad. i lent him 900k of product and he paid me 200k and then started
avoiding me. i see u and him still have listings up when i kno for a fact he does not have
ne product. why are u guys scamming people for there hard earned money? i stopped by
lucydrops house and he doesnt live there ne more and his phone goes straight to
voicemail but i kno he has been on sr.. and he says wait for u
what is the deal? where is my money? why is lucydrop still selling when i kno for fact he
has no product because i supplyd him
im freaking out here! that was not my money! im getting scared. my wife said she saw
people at my kids school and im getting really worried
i put a keylogger on lucydrops computer when he left the room one day when i was their
so i could see what he was doing and i see he has been selling still when i kno he doesnt
have product. are u guys pulling a scam? why!?
i also have the indentities of 9 top vendors and 15 smaller vendors and thousands of
customers of lucydrops. i dont want any trouble but i want my money! if u havnt paid
lucydrop drop pay him! if u have pay him then tell him to pay me! im scared for my
family!
if u dont believe me here is lucy password info
login lucydrop
passyworld lucedad
withdraw password lucedadhi5
i will not do anything tilll u message me and tell me whats going on. please get him to pay
me asap or pay him asap if u havnt! this is my life here and im scared for my family bcuz
of the money i owe
DreadPirateRoberts
To: FriendlyChemist, 3/14/2013
I'm really sorry for your situation. I have never had such a conversation with lucydrop.
he/she must have made it up to trick you. we have no special deal whatsoever.
FriendlyChemist
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/14/2013
i find it verry hard to believe. he showed the chat loggs talking to u about u making him
number 1 seller and being his partner on the product i gave him. i would not have give
him that much product otherwise- especially because u made him the 1 seller
please dont screw me like this! my life is in danger because of this money i owe!
i also kno about the other vendor accounts his friends are using. i have access to those
customer lists too from when lucydrop was dropshipping for them
im not this kind of person but the only card i hav left to play is dropping 2 dozen vendor
identities and thousands of customer details on the web and the forums. what do u and
lucydrop think will happen if thousands of usernames, ordr amounts, addresses get
leaked? all those people will leave sr and be scared to use it again.. those vendors will all
be busted and all there customers will be exposed too and never go back to sr
i dont want to do that! i just want my money for my product! my life is in danger and
maybe my family. the people i borrowed that from are not regular people!! i cant believe
i was so stupid and trustng!
jus get lucydrop to pay me my money asap or if u havent paid him yet then pay so he pays
me the money he owes!
please! im freaking out here!
DreadPirateRoberts
To: FriendlyChemist, 3/15/2013
I will get in touch with lucydrop and get back to you.
Send me all of the information you've harvested so I can verify it.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: LucyDrop, 3/15/2013
Hi Lucydrop,
I've been contacted by a member named FriendlyChemist. He claims to know you and
have done business with you in real life. He is making wild accusations and threats
against you, me, and other members of the community. If indeed you know him, could
you please provide me with his name and address. I'd like to stop him in his tracks by
revealing that I know who he is and will retaliate if he does anything stupid. Any other
info you can provide is also welcome.
Thanks and sorry for the trouble.
DPR
PS - please don't contact him if possible, I'd like to handle it myself.
FriendlyChemist
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/15/2013
i didnt have to harvest anything - lucydrop kept a log of every single transaction he made
on silkroad like a idiot
there r thousands and thousands of orders
there are over 20 vendor identities from when he did biz with them - some with phone
numbers to - and over 5 thousand customer identities
he also ran more then 1 account on here nd seems to be still vending on those accts too
and did evrything from 1 computers so i have all theyre info too
u alrdy kno that i have access to his acct and u can see most of his order r not encrypt so i
dont kno why u are asking for me to send all the info to u now. unless u want to warn all
those people so you and lucy dont have to pay me
his username - lucydrop
his pw - lucedad
his wd pw - lucedadhi5
u say u are not working wit him but u still havn closed his acct when u kno he is scamming
but i will give u a address to some customers and u can see he kept logs the whole time.
here are some of his very first sales when he was sending 3tab samples when he first
started vending. u can cantact them and see it is true
[Ed. note: long list of addresses from around the world redacted]
and the log goes like that up til today every day. nd that it just 1 of his accts.. he has 3
total of his own he use for different thing
but im sure u kno this. or else why u let that accunt stay open.
i dont want to do anything with this and i wont i just want my money! i am scared for my
life and you and him are not giving me answer. maybe if i post all the vendor identity
publicly and nobody sell on silkroad lucydrop will have no more sales to scam ppl on his
other account. i just want what is owe to me and i will go away! i dont kno why you ppl
scam like this! ppl work hard for there money and u are playing with ppl lives!
i will wait ur reply from lucydrop - but i dont kno how much longer i can wait.. how can i
explain to these ppl i dont have there money when i said i will have
it a certain day and now im late? these are not normal ppl and they are getting angry with
me
jsut get lucydrop to resolve this, or pay him so he can pay me! i did a favor and this is not
fair to play with my life like this!
DreadPirateRoberts
To: FriendlyChemist, 3/15/2013
I'll let you know when I hear from lucydrop
FriendlyChemist
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/15/2013
when will that be? i dont think u guys understand how serious this is
have u not payed lucydrop the 700k he is supposed to give me yet? these people i
borrowed from have been asking for me to meet them and said they dont want to have
to come and find me
im scared and u dont seem to even care that u guys are scamming me and putting me life
in danger!
do i need to release some of list so u take it more serious? i just want what is owed to
me! when will u guys make it rite?
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/16/2013
[POSTED IN ONE OF THE SILK ROAD FORUMS]
I can't post in rumormill because I don't have 50 posts. Please post this thread in rumormill - I am the real LucyDrop
DO NOT BUY FROM LUCYDROP ON SR
I can't talk about specifics for security reasons, but i was in jail for more than 2 months
but less than 7. I got released very recently. LucyDrop on SilkRoad is NOT ME. DO NOT
BUY FROM THAT ACCOUNT. My partner completely fucked me over. I went to our spot..
there is nothing there and he wont answer my phone calls. He took the work computer
and everything else. He took my entire savings with him that was being used to keep
supply up. He took my entire life. Somebody PLEASE get in contact with DPR or Vendor
Support and have the account shut down immediately and freeze all the funds in the
account.
How can I contact DPR? I can't find a link to message him. I can prove to him that I am the
real lucydrop as I do not have access to my pgp or any of my logins.
If you ordered from me in the past (namely a couple of top vendors, i can give you details
and you can verify/vouch that I am indeed the real LucyDrop)
Do not trust anything that is said from that LucyDrop account! Do not send ANY FUNDS.
Do NOT FINALIZE ANYTHING.
Somebody please get DPR to see this thread. Someone please post this n Rumor mill. My
entire life was taken from me and I don't know what to do
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/16/2013
Hi there. How did the new person gain access to your account?
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/16/2013
It's not a new person who took over the account. It was my partner in real life that I
started LucyDrop with. I was the one that actually handled the LucyDrop account until I
got arrested. I was picked up on previous drug offence warrants and spent some time in
jail. My partner took absolutely everything from me in that time. He took all the work
computers, the bitcoin wallets, all the work product and nearly my entire life savings and
scammed a bunch of people in the process.
FriendlyChemist was our middleman to one of our LSD distributors. I called him also after
I got released and he is demanding I pay him for some deal he had with my partner when
I was in jail and telling me he will do something very stupid if he doesn't get paid. How do
you know FriendlyChemist?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/17/2013
I'm so glad you know him! He has gathered the personal information of many of the
customers who worked with lucydrop (not sure if you were in control of the account at
the time or not) and also some of the other vendors on SR. Now he is trying to blackmail
me by saying he will release all of this info. If this happened it would be terrible. I need
his real world identity so I can threaten him with violence if he were to release any names
(name, address, anything you have). It sounds like he's in a tough spot that your former
partner put him in, but I can't get involved and I can't let him release those IDs.
Thank you for any help you can provide.
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/17/2013
I don't know how I feel about that solution. Remember that he also knows my real world
identity and has evidence on me as well. I'm sure you are well aware of what would
happen to me if my information was to be released. If he had access to that computer
there is a lot more damaging stuff on there than just the identities of a bunch of vendors
and a bunch of customers of mine. There is enough on that computer to put me away for
a very long time. He's acting erratic right now (understandably, given his situation), but I
will set up a meeting with him and try and reason with him. It is also in my best interest
that he does not release anything, as well as in the best interest of this movement we are
a part of.. Putting power in the peoples hands. I fucking hate what money does to people.
I am in contact with him, and I told him that I am talking to you and I'm going to have a
meeting with him and try and resolve this problem of ours.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/18/2013
ok lucy, do me proud :)
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/18/2013
Will do. Obviously I wont ask you what timezone you are in, but can you give me certain
hours that are the best to reach you at/? The delay in messages back and forth make it
hard to communicate effectively. I'm in Pacific time zone.. Can you tell me what time in
PST are the best times to reach you at? I don't mind having to wake up in the middle of
the night to hop on the forums so just tell me whatever works best for you
I will be meeting him today in the morning
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/18/2013
I will check in as much as possible. Let me know if you need anything.
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/19/2013
I went to the meeting with him and he is extremely frightened. He told me who he owes
money to and I understand his concern for his safety, because they are not people you
want to owe money to. He is freaking out and truly believes that his life and his families
life is in serious danger.He thinks that you don't take him seriously and said he was
planning on releasing part of the information to show he is serious. I convinced him not to
and reassured him that things would be okay. If that information gets leaked and those
vendors get busted, I would get busted too. I tried to not show him that I was too
concerned with his threats but I'm not sure how to deal with him. He said he has been
doing his research and he says he has discovered the flaw with SR that the buyers have
never thought about. (I'm assuming he is referring to the fact that the vendors all have
peoples addresses and can use it against SR or the buyers themselves to extort money or
what have you). He also kept talking about the shitstorm that would be caused by that
much information being leaked and media/police picking up on it and starting a mass
panic. He said if we don't pay him that he will release the information, and if that does
not work he will go straight to the police with all the information and get into the witness
protection program. The people he borrowed the product from are a big criminal
organization in Canada (Hells Angels - not sure if you are familiar with them) and the
police have been known to treat witnesses against them very well).
This is saddening because this guy is not really like this, but I guess with the threat to his
and his families life he is under extreme stress and acting out of character. I calmed him
down a bit and told him I would find a way to help him. That was somewhat of a lie on my
part because I really don't know how I can help him but I wanted to reassure him so he
didn't do anything drastic in the meantime until we find a solution.
I asked him that you would never fully trust him to not use the information against him
even if you got paid, and he said the following. I'm recalling this all from memory so
excuse me if it's not completely accurate.
He said regardless of anything, he needs to pay the people asap or he is in grave danger.
He offered me a deal (because as you know, selling on SR was my income and he was my
connection for LSD). He said he wants to be paid, and that he would then give me product
at his cost, so that I could pay you back by selling and giving you the percentage of what
he would normally put on top when he was selling it to me. He was putting 50% on top of
his cost when he gave it to me, so he suggested that I start vending again and you take
50% of all sales. That way you would be paid back in full, I would be able to sell again on
SR and that the people he borrowed the product from would be paid back and he would
be safe. I said that was a bad deal because you would still have all the vendors
information and customers information. He said that he would be willing to give you his
identify, talk to someone on the phone to verify, or give any other identifying information
that could be confirmed as collateral so he would never be able to use that information
again, and that you would feel confident that the information would never be exposed.
I don't know what you think, but that is what he said to me. What should I say to him?
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/20/2013
Can you tell me what to tell him please? I've been stalling him and told him I would get
back to him asap.
Can you just tell me what to tell him, so I can make arrangements to protect myself in this
whole situation also? If he goes through with his threat, I will need to protect myself
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/20/2013
You know his real-world identity don't you? There is no way I will be handing cash over to
a person who is threatening me and my community. Give me his ID so I can have some
leverage in dealing with him. You said you don't know what to do now, so let me take
over and give me all of the info you have so I have the best chance at defusing this
situation.
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/20/2013
Yes I do know his identity, but you threatening him back will not help this situation. He is
deathly afraid of the people he owes money to, and they already know where he lives and
where his kids go to school etc. That will just expedite him going to the police, thus the
information being given to them including my identity because they police will want all
the information he has if they will protect him and put him in witness protection.
Obviously you don't want to be blackmailed and let some fuck take money but this
situation is extremely sensitive and I'm getting increasingly worried about my own safety
regarding the police or my information being leaked too.
If I can get some money together would you be willing to help me pay him, and then
taking 50% off each of my sales to repay you what you have leant? I was the number one
vendor with the 3 best selling items on SR so it would not take long. That way I also get to
keep my connection for LSD and be able to keep vending. I can probably get 300k
together or maybe more if I try and borrow some money from friends. I just don't see
how you threatening him is going to help the situation at all and will probably just make
him go to the police even faster/releasing the information faster since he will know he
will not be able to pay them off and will have no choice but to go to the police after
releasing the information since he will be in serious trouble
Please try and check your messages more often, because whenever I don't have anything
to tell him he starts acting more erratic since the people he owes are on him hard about
getting paid
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/20/2013
Don't bother messaging me again if the message does not contain his personal
information. I'm not fronting money to anyone, and I won't be blackmailed. I would also
like the contact info/id of the other lucy drop that ripped him off, and of his suppliers if
possible. You don't know how to handle this situation, but I do. Stop showing this guy
compassion. He is threatening your life/freedom and my livelyhood.
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/21/2013
If you really think you have a good idea to deal with him I will give you the information
you want about his identity. Please understand why I am hesitant, as it is my freedom
we're dealing with.
I will also have no income since he was my connection for LSD.. Are there any positions
open on SR? support or otherwise? I could really use some sort of job as my partner
completely fucked me over.
Let me know how to send the information to you... Plain text or can you give me a pgp
key to use?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: FriendlyChemist, 3/21/2013
Have your suppliers contact me here so I can work something out with them. Do NOT tell
them that I owe you money. That is not true and will only complicate matters. Tell them
the truth, that the person who stole your money sold their product on my site and that
you are now blackmailing me to get them their money. You should copy/paste this
message to them.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/21/2013
Thank you for your understanding. Please encrypt the information with the key below
and send it to me here.
-----BEGIN PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK-----
Version: GnuPG v2.0.17 (MingW32)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=kHyk
-----END PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK-----
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/21/2013
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Hate to even have to ask this, but any job openings? I've always been loyal to you, and
believe in the movement. I was the number 1 vendor with the number 1 selling products
so I am very familiar with how things work.. I just am in a bad spot after my partner
fucked me, and could use any sort of income while I get back on my feet
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/21/2013
Please send the exact address of FC. I might be able to take you in as a part-time mod. I'll
run it by the staff.
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/24/2013
That's not a problem. I will go out there in a couple days and get the exact address for you
Did you consult the staff about the part time job?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/25/2013
not yet. is he still in contact with you?
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/25/2013
I was asked to contact you. We are the people friendlychemist owes money to. He tells us
that you owe him money and a long boring story about some of this and some of that. As
far as we are concerned - we gave him the product. Where it went and how does not
matter. We hold him and him only responsible for the missing product/money.We don't
care if you stole it from him/borrowed it from him or anything. It was his responsibility to
pay for it. He asked me to contact you anyways. What did you want to talk to us about?
RealLucyDrop
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/26/2013
He answers though sporadically.... I have heard via the grape vine that he is in contact
with the people he owes money to but he is refusing to meet up with them like they have
told him to
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/26/2013
Sorry for the delayed response and thank you for getting in touch. We've had some
technical difficulties the past 24 hours I've had to deal with. Just to be clear, I do not owe
him any money, but he has told me his situation and wants my help. I'm not entirely sure
what the best action to take is, but I wanted to be in communication with you to see if we
can come to a conclusion that works for everyone.
friendlychemist aside, we should talk about how we can do business. Obviously you have
access to illicit substances in quantity, and are having issues with bad distributors. If you
don't already sell here on Silk Road, I'd like you to consider becoming a vendor. Many
people here purchase in bulk as well as retail quantities. Being a vendor, you'll have the
protection that dealing anonymously in bitcoin provides, and you'll have protection
against people like friendlychemist ripping you off because all transactions are conducted
through my escrow. I encourage you to read the wiki and forum (links in the footer) and
consider becoming a vendor here.
So, if there is anything I can do as the admin here to help you get involved in Silk Road, or
anything I can do to help with your situation with friendlychemist, please just let me
know.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/26/2013
That is interesting. How much is it possible to sell on here if we listed every product far
cheaper than everyone else? We have a majority hold over most of the movement of
products in western Canada (one of the main drug ports to North America). I have
researched your site and the concept seems interesting to me (as long as it is anonymous
as everyone makes it out to be). We produce LSD/nBome/Ketamine/MDMA/Meth/GHB
and import cocaine and heroin in massive bulk amounts. We have a lot of workers who
run their own sub distribution networks for the streets, but if it is lucrative we are always
looking to expand.
In my partners eyes all they will see is that because of online dealing we are out 700k so
I'm not sure they will go for it.
FriendlyChemist refuses to meet up with us because of what he fears will
happen. People are starting to suspect that he will go to the police, which is not a
problem because he would never be able to give up anyone of importance since he only
has ever had contact with low level people in our group and they always take precautions
so that even if someone were to turn informant, they would not be able to get any
charges to stick. It's a shame because he moved a fair amount of product.
If you can get FriendlyChemist to meet up with us, or pay us his debt then I'm sure I
would be able to get people in our group to give this online side of the business a try. As it
stands right now, there are people looking for him and since he has avoided our group,
I'm not sure what will happen since he owes us money and is avoiding us.
I've looked around your site, and the prices are absolutely absurd. I'm assuming most
people on here selling are 3 or 4 tiers below the actual producers or distributors?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RealLucyDrop, 3/27/2013
why haven't you gotten the address yet? Bring me the address, and $1000 in btc is yours.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/27/2013
In my eyes, FriendlyChemist is a liability and I wouldn't mind if he was executed, but then
you'd be out your $700k. I don't think he is going to come up with the money because he
seems very desperate. I'm not sure how much you already know about the guy, but I
have the following info and am waiting on getting his address:
Blake Krokoff
Lives in an apartment near White Rock Beach
Age: 34
City: White Rock
Province: British Columbia
Wife + 3 kids
Let me know if it would be helpful to have his full address.
In those categories, I think you could be doing over $1M in sales a week within a few
months. It is hard to estimate because it depends on how much market share you get
and also the site as a whole is constantly growing. You will need to become very
proficient at stealth shipping and packaging if you aren't already. Think vacuum sealers
and leaving no forensic evidence on your packages. You will also want to ship from
multiple drop points so you can't be traced back via your (fake) return address.
If you go through with this, I would contact some of the top vendors and hire them to
consult you. Ask the weed vendors because you won't be competing with them and their
product is smelly and looked for by USPS, so they have to be on top of their game. I
would also start out listing smaller amounts so you can get the hang of it before putting
up a substantial inventory. You will also need to market yourself on the forums a little bit
at first, maybe send out some samples to critics. That is one price of anonymity, no one
knows you, but if your customer service is good and your product is good and cheap,
people will quickly catch on and you won't have to do much hustling.
Regarding prices, there are some costs here you don't otherwise see. I take 3 - 10%
depending on the size of the transaction, if you hedge your escrow balance (and you
should) that can cost up to 5% per transaction, and then if you need to convert your
bitcoins into another currency, there are fees associated with that, though not that much.
There are also occasional losses due to packages lost in the mail. The rest of the markup I
think is due, as you say, to the fact that most vendors are pretty far down the distribution
chain.
Regarding the safety and anonymity, we've been operating for over 2 years now in the
open as a high profile target and are still going strong. If you take the necessary
precautions, and use the technology, I think you can operate very securely and efficiently
here, maybe more so than some of your current operations.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/28/2013
I already have that information but thank you. 1M a week sounds like it would be worth
selling on here, once we know exactly how everything works. Even if commission was
15% it would not matter, as we lose more than 15% doing it on the streets with street
level guys getting robbed or arrest and losing product etc.
Also, we have kidnapped friendlychemists partner Xin already and are on the hunt for
friendlychemist. I will keep you updated on the developments. So far though we are liking
what we see with this site and this could be a good partnership for both of us. As far as I
can see, this site lacks any big time suppliers. It appears it is mostly it is street level
independents that are buying small amounts (1oz - 1 kilo at a time) and selling on here.
We have the product and the man power to do big things here. Forgive me, but it all
seems a little too good to be true right now so I will need some time to really research
this before I make any sort of commitment.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/28/2013
I understand, and that is great news about Xin. If I understand the situation, he is the one
responsible for your loss.
You should definitely take your time and start slowly. I would hate for you to make a
mistake and be left with a bad experience. Just let me know if you need anything. Also,
you should look into PGP. Many customers like to encrypt their receiving address so you
should know how to decrypt it.
When you are ready, let me know what account you want to sell with and I'll cover the
$500 security deposit for you.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/28/2013
We are all familiar with PGP as we have been using it for years via email linked to our
smartphones. It's the only way we communicate with each other aside from in person,
since phone calls are not secure.
There is no loss anymore, also. We were able to recover all of our missing product when
we grabbed Xin. After some "questioning" he admitted he was intending on moving to a
different country and setting up a new seller account on this site. We don't take too
kindly to thieves. He's gone.
I appreciate your offer to waive the fee, but If we were to sell on here I would like to pay
the same as everyone else. Very kind of you though. I will be in touch.
FriendlyChemist
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/29/2013
u leave me no choice i want 500k usd withn 72hrs or i am going to post all the info i have.
i cant go back to my home and i had to move my kids and wife somewhere and i need the
money so i can move my family and start a new life. i hate to do this but i need the money
or im going to release it all. over 5000 user details and about 2 dozen vender identities
wats it going to be?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: FriendlyChemist, 3/29/2013
Don't do anything foolish. The people that you owe money to have caught up with Xin
and reclaimed their loss. I spoke to them and calmed them down. They are likely going
to become vendors here on SR. Now you can calm down too. Go back to your normal life
and don't get involved in this stuff any more.
FriendlyChemist
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/29/2013
u dont think i kno what they did to xin? u think i can just go on with my life? u dont know
these ppl. i owed them money and i ran away from them. its over for me. i need that
money to start over somewhere else with my family. i need it! i dont want to do this but if
u dont give it to me i have no choice
they are still telling me that i hav to meet them and i kno what will happen. i cant let that
happen! even if they say it is ok i kno they will do the same thing to me. they say
everything is ok but i kno what they will do! 63 hours.. please.. dont force me to post
everything. 500k is nothing to u but its life and death for me
they told me that i have a free pass and that they dealt with it with xin but i kno that they
are doing that to make me think its ok and then get me! thats how these ppl operate!
DreadPirateRoberts
To: FriendlyChemist, 3/29/2013
Do me a favor and make it 96 hours. I will get back to you on Monday. I want to work
this out, but I have big plans for this weekend and don't want to have to deal with this.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/29/2013
Hi again R&W,
I hate to come to you with a problem when we are just starting to get to know one
another, but Blake (FriendlyChemist) is causing me problems. Are you still looking for him
or now that you've found Xin have you given up? I would like to put a bounty on his head
if it's not too much trouble for you. What would be an adequate amount to motivate you
to find him?
Necessities like this do happen from time to time for a person in my position. I have
others I can turn to, but it is always good to have options and you are close to the case
right now. Hopefully this is something you are open to and can be another aspect of our
business relationship.
Regards,
DPR
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/30/2013
What is the problem? We usually tend to stay away from hits as they are bad for business
and bring a lot of heat. Is it a problem that can be resolved or does it need to be dealt
with sternly?
As of right now, we don't care about him because we retrieved more from Xin than what
he took from us, and he also paid for it with his life. Debt paid in our books.
As far as rates go, we don't have a flat rate for things like that. It's on a case by case basis.
Usually we pay our hitters a percentage of what the person owes +/- how much they can
retrieve. If it's strictly a hit because they don't want the person around anymore it's also
different. Does he owe you money or do you just not want him around anymore?
I can send a couple of my guys to do recon to find out exactly where he is right now in the
meantime until I hear back from you.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/30/2013
If you can find his location, that may be enough for me to scare him off. He is trying to
blackmail me. Just let me know what you need to make this worth your while.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/30/2013
If I find his location, and you use it against him to scare him, there is a chance he will
switch locations again. Speaking from experience, it will become a lot more difficult to
find him again after that once he knows there are people capable of finding, him looking
for him.
Further, the people we use to do the recon are the hitter themselves. I don't think they
will be interested in continuing looking for him if there will be a small sum to be split
between them just to find his address.
If you have your mind set on just finding his location, I can talk to them and get them to
get it for you for a fee (not sure what amount as usually when we hunt someone, there is
more involved after we find them). If you want to deal with him the other way, we can
talk about that too, but price varies on the situation.
If you want it to look like an accident, it would cost a lot more. It wouldn't be suspicious.
He would just leave home one day and not return.
If you don't care what it looks like, it would be cheaper than the accident. We use
professionals and not street level hoodlums who always end up fucking things up. How
much does he owe you and how much are you willing to pay? If there are funds retrieved,
how much would we keep from what he has when we get him(if he has anything) ?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/30/2013
He doesn't owe me anything, but he is threatening to expose the identities of thousands
of my clients that he was able to acquire working with Xin if I don't pay him off. As you
don't take kindly to thieves, this kind of behavior is unforgivable to me. Especially here
on Silk Road, anonymity is sacrosanct.
It doesn't have to be clean, and I don't think there are any funds to be retrieved.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/30/2013
Price for clean is 300k+ USD
Price for non-clean is 150-200k USD depending on how you want it done.
These prices pay for 2 professional hitters including their travel expenses and work they
put in. We can use out of town hitters if you want as well, but I would not suggest them
because they come with an extra cost and you don't seem to care how he is taken care of.
When would you like this done?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/31/2013
Don't want to be a pain here, but the price seems high. Not long ago, I had a clean hit
done for $80k. Are the prices you quoted the best you can do?
I would like this done asap as he is talking about releasing the info on Monday.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/31/2013
I'm sorry, but we can't do anything for that price. Best I can do is 150 and even that is
pushing it. Since you need a rush job done, usually we would charge even more. In the
interest of business relationship to be, I could do 150. No lower. If 150 does not work for
you, we are going to have to pass. We use professionals, and we pay them a good price.
Always send them out in a team of 2+.. 75k each for expenses and the job is a fair amount
I think.
We have one of his associates, and we're paying him to set him up for us. We'll pay for
that ourselves on our end. I'm guessing you will not be able to pay by cash, so how would
payment work since you need it done before monday?
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/31/2013
If you want it done by Monday that only leaves today. It's Sunday morning here. We
always seem to miss each other online, so I will leave a bitcoin address in case you want
to pay that way. Probably best so we can get used to dealing with bitcoins anyways since
we will be selling here more than likely in the next week or two. I will check the computer
in about 10 hours and If I see that you do want to go ahead with this, and payment has
been sent we'll do it today.
1MwvS1idEevZ5gd428TjL3hB2kHaBH9WTL
If you want picture confirmation of the job afterwards, give me random numbers and I
will have them write them beside him and take a picture for you.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 3/31/2013
Thank you R&W. I've only ever commissioned the one other hit, so I'm still learning this
market. I have no problem putting my faith in you and I am sure you will do a good job.
The exchange rate is above 90 right now, so at $90/btc, $150k is about 1670 btc. If the
market tanks in the next few days, I will send more. Here are some random numbers for
a picture: 83746102
Here is the transaction # for 1670 btc to 1MwvS1idEevZ5gd428TjL3hB2kHaBH9WTL
4a0a5b6036c0da84c3eb9c2a884b6ad72416d1758470e19fb1d2fa2a145b5601
Good luck and be safe,
DPR
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 3/31/2013
I received the payment. I appreciate the offer if bitcoins lower in value. We know where
he is. He'll be grabbed tonight. I'll update you.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/1/2013
Your problem has been taken care of. They seized a bunch of stuff he had with him at the
time as well. They said he had a couple laptops and a bunch of usb sticks. Is there
anything of that, that belongs to you? They questioned him and he spilled everything he
knew. He said that he and Xin were actually working together on this scheme to blackmail
you and that they were brought in by a 3rd guy who has been selling on here for a couple
years who is a scam artist. Apparently he makes selling accounts, sells for a while and
then pulls a big scam and he just keeps creating new accounts after he does his scams.
They got that guys name also , I will give that to you free of charge when I meet them to
get the picture and computer hardware they got. Rest easy though, because he won't be
blackmailing anyone again. Ever.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/2/2013
Excellent work. Please send any info you can get on this third party along with the
picture. The picture can be uploaded here: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/upload
I have no need for any of his possessions, so you can do what you want with that stuff.
Thank you again for your assistance,
DPR
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/2/2013
Okay my guys are here now and here is the information they extracted from
FriendlyChemist before the deed.
They were working with a guy - real name of Andrew Lawsry of Surrey. Apparently this is
the guy that turned them on to frauding people on here. He said that he started selling on
silkroad a couple of years ago and since then he has made a career of making new seller
profiles to sell and then rip people off. He told them how to start on here and how to rip
people off and asked for a percentage in return. He said that he showed them everything
about how to sell and how to pull it off and all that stuff. He didn't remember all of the
account names he uses or used but he said that tony76 and nipplesuckcanuck were two
of his names and that he has other seller accounts for people he set up or is running
himself.
I also went and looked at all of the possessions they seized from him. The laptops were
empty besides Tor and a couple other programs. The USB sticks he had were packed full
of text files with thousands of addresses from all around the world. We destroyed
everything we seized from him, but I kept a text file that was named "blackmail.txt" that
had a ton of addresses in it like the other text files. Since you mentioned that he was
trying to blackmail you with that information, I kept that text file in case you needed it. If
you don't need it, let me know and I will destroy it.
I also have the picture with me. A question before I send it to you. I am not extremely
good with all this anonymity computer operations, but I know that pictures store GPS
information and the likes that police can use in evidence. Is it safe to send it over here like
that? We took care of him at one of our safe
houses so that worries me a little. I trust your judgement, so I was wondering if there was
a way to delete the GPS information from a picture before I send it over the internet.
Another quick question regarding bitcoins. How do we withdraw them? I paid the hitters
with my own money until I figure out how bitcoins work exactly. As I understand it, mtgox
is the main exchange. Is it safe to make an account there to withdraw? Can they link it
back to SilkRoad? They require verification which bothers me a little so I figured you
would know the best way
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/2/2013
Yes, you can destroy the info. Thanks for taking a look first.
Regarding image metadata, you can strip all of that out and it is a good practice. The
upload page is secure, but I would still have access to that metadata. Of course you can
trust me, but what if I was compromised? Do a search of "remove image metadata". A
decent one for windows can be found here: http://www.steelbytes.com/?mid=30
Regarding bitcoin withdrawal, I would avoid mt gox if at all possible, especially if you are
withdrawing to a USA account. There are many other exchanges that don't have so much
attention on them. You can find a list here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Currency_exchanges
I am reluctant to give you a specific recommendation, but look for ones offshore on that
list that will do an international wire transfer for a direct bitcoin payment.
tony76 and nipplesuckcanuck were both blights on an otherwise great track record.
What do you think about going after Andrew Lawsry? This guy has probably ripped off
millions of $ at this point from me and the rest of the Silk Road community.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/4/2013
Are you sure the name isn't Andrew Lawry? Or some other variant? I can't find a
surname anywhere of Lawsry. And do you have any other info at all on this person?
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/5/2013
I have sent the file. I had to make sure I did the information removal properly before I
sent it so that it did not send GPS information with the picture in case it was intercepted
somehow. Please delete the picture as soon as you take a look at it.
As for the name, It's Andrew Lawsry aka tony76 aka nipplesuck canuck aka some other
names I do not know. From what I got from FriendlyChemist , he has other names on here
as well or is working with other vendors on here like I mentioned before.
As for your question about going after him, I would need to do some asking around to see
what kind of information my guys can get on him. Would you like me to look into it?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/5/2013
Yes please. If you can find him, I would like to know.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/5/2013
Did you get the picture? Let me know so I can delete the rest of the ones I have.
Finding him would be possible. I can almost guarantee it, but I stop short of guaranteeing
anything unless I am 100% certain I can get the job done. I do that so I don't look like an
idiot if I can't accomplish something I have said I can. We have a huge stake in the
trafficking on this side of the country, so If he is grabbing product from anyone, we would
be able to find out who and get to him. Would you want him dealt with if possible? I ask
because I don't want to send people to hunt for him, and then nothing come of it once
they find him.
Please don't forget to delete that picture
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/5/2013
I've received the picture and deleted it. Thank you again for your swift action.
I would like to go after Andrew, though it is important to me to make sure he is who Blake
said he is. I would rather miss the chance to take him out, than hit an innocent person. If
he is our man, then he likely has substantial assets to be recovered. Perhaps we can hold
him and question him?
I'd like to connect with you in real-time chat to discuss this with you further. I have a
secure system set up that we can connect through. It requires downloading the chat
client pidgin, and the plugin off-the-record (OTR) and some basic configuration to
connect. If you are open to the idea, I'll send you the instructions. This is how I
communicate with my closest people.
If not, we can keep it here, but it is much slower.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/5/2013
It was my pleasure. I hate thieves almost as much as I hate informants.
About holding and questioning someone. It adds to the risk somewhat the longer we have
a target/transport a target. The safest way is to get in, do it, and get out as soon as
possible. Are there any way to verify he is the intended target? Making him speak would
not be a problem and of course we would not have him done in if he was not right person
we were looking for.
Since you said you'd like to go after him, I will send 2 of my guys to go do some recon
right now and find out what I can about him and get back to you immediately. We can
discuss price later once we know more.
As for the real time chat, send the information over and I will have my tech guy look at it.
He handles all my security with phones and pgp blackberries so he would probably know
better than me how to set everything up
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/6/2013
My gut tells me he's our man, but I would hate to be wrong. Your men were able to get
info from Blake, maybe they can do the same with Andrew. He is likely sitting on many
thousands of stolen bitcoins perhaps tens of thousands, so I would think we'd want to
"work him over" to get those funds back. They could be on an encrypted drive only he
can unlock. Taking him out would erase those coins forever. In the process of getting
him to return the funds, I hope we could confirm that he is indeed the one Blake says he
is. Here are the instructions for accessing the chat server from a windows computer:
1. download and install pidgin
(http://downloads.sourceforge.net/project/pidgin/Pidgin/2.10.7/pidgin-2.10.7.exe)
2. close pidgin
3. download and install off-the-record (OTR)
4. start pidgin
5. enable OTR from the plugins menu
6. make sure Tor is running
7. create a new account
8. basic settings
8.a. protocol: XMPP
8.b. username: kc2HziJvxgvA4tWo
8.c. domain: pi5mmj2ronhutyxv.onion
8.d. password: LXO9GDMQVddqBFBu
9. advanced
9.a. connect port: 5222
10. proxy
10.a. proxy type: Tor/Privacy (SOCKS5)
10.b. Host: 127.0.0.1
10.c. Port: 9150
11. add the account. if it doesn't connect, double check the socks port tor is listening on
and change step 10.c. accordingly
13. add buddy "dread". if I'm online we'll connect. there are a few more steps to finalize
OTR, but those can be done once we're chatting.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/6/2013
I got all the information correct, but when I try to connect it is stuck on "connecting" I
have the correct port that tor is listening on
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/6/2013
I have found out who Andrew is exactly and who he was picking up his supply from. I
talked to his supplier and he said he mainly grabbed Heroin,Coke,MDMA and LSD. He said
he always goes through phases where he grabs a ton of product, and then stops for a
couple of weeks and then starts again. Sounds consistent with what Friendly chemist said
about how they run the stealing from the buyers on here. He said last he heard from
Andrew (a couple of days ago), he said he was planning on moving out of the province
because things were too hot down here. That might be because he has found out about
Xin and FriendlyChemist and is now scared.
I also had a chance to actually sit down and talk to my hitters about exactly what
happened and how everything went down in detail. They said that FriendlyChemist was
pleading with them and offering to give up Andrew, and that Andrew was a seller here by
the name of Tony and a bunch of other names (nipplesuckcanuck, amongst others). He
said that when he first turned them on to the idea of doing this big scheme that he would
often talk about how he stole so much money, and that he once stole 15,000 online
currency coins from 1 person on this site, and how easy stealing money was on here.
Does that ring a bell? Did he steal 15,000 BitCoins from a buyer here? That would be an
easy way to find out if this Andrew person is the same person you think it is. Do you have
his transaction history to see if he did actually steal 15,000 BitCoins from someone? I
trust my hitters to do a good job, and
they are excellent at what they do..Which is take people out, or interrogate/scare people,
and they told me they didn't think he was lying.
The info I have on him right now, is that he works/lives with 3 other people and they all
sell product together. They are planning on leaving the province soon (I don't know
when). He is in contact with his supplier, who actually through a line of middlemen gets
his product from us a the end of the food chain.
Do you want to deal with this Andrew guy, or do you want me to put the team on
standby?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/6/2013
I am confident enough that it is him to move forward. Can we round up all 4 of them,
separate them, and get them to out each other and give up their stolen money?
Recovering the funds is going to be tricky if you aren't in direct contact with your team, or
if your team doesn't know how bitcoins work.
If you have the other usernames FC mentioned, that will help me piece together things on
my end.
Regarding chat, there should be a certificate you have to accept when it connects. does
that show up?
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/6/2013
It won't even connect. It just is stuck on connecting.nI copy and pasted all the information
for the login and password etc so it should be good. I also checked tor to see what port to
use. Won't connect for some reason. Do I have to fill in any more of the details? Local
alias or anything like that?
As for getting all 4, it would be possible but they would have to get them all at once so
that one does not get away. I would send 4 hitters instead of 2 to make sure there was no
fuck ups. I'm not sure when they are planning on leaving the province though. The guy
that has been feeding me information on him says the guy is a degenerate gambler so I
don't know how much funds he will have on hand. He says he owes a ton of people
money too. My guess is that he is pulling these scams to fuel his gambling problem like a
degenerate. It would make sense why he is also teaching other people how to scam as
well when it has been so profitable for him to keep to himself.. probably because he owes
them money and offers to show them how to do it, as a way of paying them back.
I will have them take whatever they have on hand, but I don't want my hitters to be
hanging around with them for too long since they are doing 4 people.
Unfortunately there are no bulk discounts for jobs like this. Usually the price goes up the
more difficult it is. Since you are easy to work with, I would be able to offer you the same
rate as last time x 4. If that works for you, let me know. If it doesn't, please also let me
know as soon as you can so I can call my guys off. They've been doing info gathering this
whole time on Andrew and his crew
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/6/2013
Ok, let's just hit andrew and leave it at that. Try to recover the funds, but if not, then not.
How much do you need for this?
I'm not sure what the problem could be with chat. Please upload some screenshots of
the settings you are using and the main pidgin window.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/8/2013
If you want to hit Andrew only, I can have it done for 150 just like last time. We wouldn't
be able to do it at their place though because there are always at least a few of them
there from what I'm told since it is their home/office. So we wouldn't be able to recover
any of his things. It's up to you what you want done, but we can't send hitters into their
house/office if they are only doing one of them. Do you not need the people he is
working with dealt with also? If they are all working with him, it means they are doing the
same thing as him. It would also be easier for the hitters to get them in there so that they
have a chance of recovering anything if he has anything there. It would also be better
because it wouldn't be a public hit. If we take just Andrew, there's nothing to say that the
other 3 won't start up somewhere else with new selling IDs. It is of course up to you what
you want done and how, since you are they client.
I was pretty certain you would want them all taken care, so I had an associate send me a
couple of his out of town hitters to accompany our local hitters. It's not a problem as I can
just send them back and cover their travel expenses, but I obviously would like for them
to not go back empty handed. My mistake for not confirming what you wanted before I
had the extra hitters sent down, but it's not really a problem if you don't want the others
dealt with. I had a hard time connecting to silkroad for the last 24 hours or I would have
asked before having them sent down. So if you would like to do the others as well, I
would be able to have it done for 500k USD. If you do not want all of them,and just
Andrew it would be 150k. I would prefer to do all 4 as it would be better than having to
get Andrew somewhere else and have no chance of
recovering any potential product/money he may have. Anything recovered would be split
50/50 with you. If you are certain he has that much product/money I think it would make
sense to do it at their home/officer. It's up to you though, just let me know what do do as
soon as you can since I do not know when they are leaving the province, and if they do
leave the province the price would go up exponentially.
If you would like just Andrew done send 150k USD to the same address you sent the
other funds to.
If you would like all 4 of them done, and product/money recovered from there send 500k
USD to the same address you sent the other funds to.
-
As for pidgin, my tech guy is not here to do the picture gps scrubbing, so I will just send
the screenshots of pidgin as soon as he is able to stop by. I will write down the settings in
the meantime.
#ERROR!
Protocol: XMPP
Username: kc2HziJvxgvA4tWo
Domain: pi5mmj2ronhutyxv.onion
Resource: EMPTY
Password: LXO9GDMQVddqBFBu
"Remember password" box - CHECKED
#ERROR!
Local alias: EMPTY
New mail notifications: UNCHECKED
Use this buddy icon for this account: UNCHECKED
Create this new account on this server: UNCHECKED
#ERROR!
Connection security: Require encryption
Allow plaintext auth over unencrypted streams: UNCHECKED
Connect port: 5222
Connect server: EMPTY
File transfer proxies: proxy.eu.jabber.org
BOSH URL: EMPTY
Show custom smileys: Checked
#ERROR!
Proxy type: Tor/Privacy (SOCKS5)
Host:127.0.0.1
Port: 9151
Username: EMPTY
Password: EMPTY
I also pressed advanced in Tor and checked to see what port it used under the Settings >>
Advanced and it says under Tor Control:
CHECKD - Use TCP Connection (ControlPort)
Address: 127.0.0.1 : 9151
I'm not sure why it is not working. It is just stuck on "Connecting" every time I try and
connect. Latest version of tor/pidgin/OTR.
In the morning I will check bitcoin wallet first thing, and I will know what you want me to
do based on how much you sent, and I will have it done asap. Speak to you soon.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/8/2013
I see your problem, you need port 9150, not 9151. 9151 is the control port, 9150 is the
socks port.
hmm... ok, I'll defer to your better judgement and hope we can recover some assets from
them. $500k in btc (3,000 @ $166/btc) has been sent to:
1MwvS1idEevZ5gd428TjL3hB2kHaBH9WTL
transaction number:
e7db5246a810cb76e53314fe51d2a60f5609bb51d37a4df105356efc286c6c67
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/9/2013
I was finally able to connect but it seems you are offline. I will have them go take care of
that thing asap. I will update you as soon as I hear more
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/9/2013
Glad to hear you could connect. I am connected quite a bit, so keep trying and I'm sure
we'll cross paths.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/11/2013
Hey there. Still haven't been able to catch you on pidgin. I added you as a buddy but you
don't show up in my buddies list. When adding a buddy, I leave everything blank and just
put the username as "dread", correct?
Our hitters have been watching their house and we have a 1 week window to do it, but I
wanted to ask you a couple questions before giving them the green light.
The price of bitcoins is trading at 61USD right now. How is this going to work, because
you mentioned that you would take care of price fluctuations. We haven't withdrawn any
of the bitcoins.
Can you also give me some insight on this price business? I have been rallying our people
to get involved will selling on here, and they seem very interested but they are saying we
would lose money because of the price going up and down so much and not being able to
withdrawal fast enough to not lose money.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/12/2013
Check out this link: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/wiki/index.php?title=Seller's_Guide
Pay special attention to the part about escrow hedging. I don't think this place would be
possible with out it, at least not in the form it's in now.
Regarding the 3k coins I sent, get the best price you can for them and let me know if you
are short and I will send more to cover it.
Regarding chat, I made a mistake. You should add me as
dread@pi5mmj2ronhutyxv.onion
I'm going to try to connect us manually, so that may not be necessary.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/15/2013
That problem was dealt with. I'll try to catch you online to give you details. Just wanted to
let you know right away so you have one less thing to worry about
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/15/2013
thanks, see you on chat.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/17/2013
3:30PST tried to catch you online, but no luck.
Want to link up at the same time tomorrow?
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/18/2013
Sure, I'll make sure I am online at 3:30 pm PST.
DreadPirateRoberts
To: RedAndWhite, 4/18/2013
It's nearly 4pm PST. I need to run some errands. I will probably be back on later though.
RedAndWhite
To: Dread Pirate Roberts, 4/21/2013
Sorry I wasn't able to make it on. I've had some problems I've been dealing with. I came
online today to see If i could catch you, but no luck. I will wait online until 6pm PST.
I'll give you a brief rundown here, just to let you know what happened. My crew did their
job. As far as money/product/bitcoins/seller accounts/ -
Money: They had 15,000CAD on site
Product: They had 1/4 Kilo of Cocaine and 2oz of Heroin
Bitcoins: They have been giving a third party bitcoins who cashes them out for them. The
guy has roughly 350 bitcoins of theirs currently owing to them. The exchange guy is not in
on their scam, and is just some exchanger who sends them funds via Western Union and
they have been using him from the start apparently. I don't know what do do about that.
Seller accounts: There were in the process of setting up another account to sell heroin
and cocaine. They said a few of their friends know about this, so be on the lookout if
anyone from Canada starts to sell heroin and cocaine.
I also took a big loss. After you sent me the extra coins to cover the price going down
when it was at 90, it started to crash again. It was at 65 and people were talking about
how it's going to go down even more, so I made a deal with an exchanger to take them all
at 50 and sell them for me in case it went down even lower. Of course after I made that
deal, it has now started to rebound again, but I'm out 250k. I am not telling you this
because I think you should cover it. In fact I don't want you to cover it. You already did
more than you needed to do when you covered the price crashing the first time. I am just
letting you know, because this will cause a delay in us starting here, because I was
planning on covering the mens wages of 1000/day of street money to start selling on here
until it gets busy enough for them to be paid via a percentage of what they sell h...
Ronald Daniels, the president of Johns Hopkins University, recently became the latest academic to offer his opinions on the funding crisis in biomedical research. It has been almost a decade since the National Academy of Sciences reported that young investigators are receiving an ever-shrinking share of key research grants. Although some reforms were implemented by the National Institutes of Health, a major funding source for biomedical research, it is clear that they haven’t changed much.
For example, the leading NIH grant—the R01—is awarded more than twice as often to scientists over 65 years of age than those under 36 years, and only 1.3 percent of all grant funding was awarded to investigators under 36 years in 2012.
Daniels lists a number of repercussions of this dire funding situation for the youngest researchers. It is leading to an exodus of young scientists from the academic biomedical workforce, forcing them onto alternative career paths. It’s creating a shortage of investigators who are pursuing novel discoveries and therapeutics, a loss of a generation of future scientific leaders, and delaying the growth of diversity in the biomedical workforce. In general, Daniels argues, it’s causing the disappearance of scientists who would be poised to bring new, disruptive ideas to the table.
The curious incident of the drone in the night-time has been made a bit less mysterious today, as the Secret Service revealed new details into their investigation—including a confession by the pilot himself. According to the Secret Service, an unnamed employee of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) claimed responsibility for crashing a remote-controlled quadrocopter into a tree on the grounds of the White House.
The yet-unnamed employee reported the incident to his superiors at NGA. He claimed to have been drinking at an apartment near the White House when he decided early Monday morning to fly a friend’s new DJI Phantom drone. He claimed that he then lost control of the drone. Soon after the drone slipped unnoticed over the White House fence, it was spotted flying low over the grounds before it crashed into a tree.
The White House has a radar system to detect incoming aerial threats, but it did not detect the drone, which has the radar cross-section of a large bird at best. According to The New York Times, the Secret Service has been studying ways for the past few years to develop a defense against small drones, which could conceivably carry small explosives or other threats.
Last week, I was looking forward to a blog post titled “Why continue to teach and use hypothesis testing?” I presume that this scheduled post merely became preempted by more timely posts. But I am still interested in reading the exchange that will follow.
My feeling is that we might have strong reservations about the utility of NHST [null hypothesis significance testing], but realize that they aren’t going away anytime soon. So it is important for students to understand what information other folks are trying to convey when they report their p-values, even if we would like to encourage them to use other frameworks (e.g. a fully Bayesian decision theoretic approach) in their own decision making.
So I guess the next question is, what then should we teach about hypothesis testing? What proportion of the time in a one semester upper level course in Mathematical Statistics should be spent on the theory and how much should be spent on the nuance and warnings about misapplication of the theory? These are questions I’d be interested to hear opinions about from you and your thoughtful readership.
A related question I have is on the “garden of forking paths” or “researcher degrees of freedom”. In applied research, do you think that “tainted” p-values are the norm, and that editors, referees, and readers basically assume some level of impurity of reported p-values?
I wonder, because it seems, if applied statistics textbooks are any guide, that the first recommendation in a data analysis seems to often be: plot your data. And I suspect that many folks might do this *before* settling in on the model they are going to fit. e.g. If they see nonlinearity, they will then consider a transformation that they wouldn’t have considered before. So whether they make the transformation or not, they might have, thus affecting the interpretability of p-values and whatnot. Perhaps I am being an extremist. Pre-registration, replication studies, or simply splitting a data set into training and testing sets may solve this problem, of course.
So to tie these two questions together, shouldn’t our textbooks do a better job in this regard, perhaps in making clear a distinction between two types of statistical analysis: a data analysis, which is intended to elicit the questions and perhaps build a model, and a confirmatory analysis which is the “pure” estimation and prediction from a pre-registered model, from which a p-value might retain some of its true meaning?
My reply: I’ve been thinking about this a lot recently because Eric Loken, Ben Goodrich, and I have been designing an introductory statistics course, and we have to address these issues. One way I’ve been thinking about it is that statistical significance is more of a negative than a positive property:
Traditionally we say: If we find statistical significance, we’ve learned something, but if a comparison is not statistically significant, we can’t say much. (We can “reject” but not “accept” a hypothesis.)
But I’d like to flip it around and say: If we see something statistically significant (in a non-preregistered study), we can’t say much, because garden of forking paths. But if a comparison is not statistically significant, we’ve learned that the noise is too large to distinguish any signal, and that can be important.
Love and happiness It can make you do right, It can make you do wrong It can make you come home early It can make you stay out all night long
I went to a LA machine learning meetup last week featuring Jon Morra from eHarmony, where he highlighted some of the uses of machine learning in their online dating platform. I came away impressed by the extent and breadth of machine learning techniques deployed to solve this most human of problems, finding love.
À chaque guenille, son torchon – Québécois proverb*
The central problem of online dating is that there is simply too much choice. To prevent overwhelming users, we want to propose matches intelligently. Abstractly, you want to estimate some “dating compatibility” matrix between different people and serve up some matches up that maximize the summed probability of getting it on.
If the love-distance matrix was small, you had a way to easily compute it, and you’d want to serve up just the one best match to each person, then you could solve this assignment problem with the Hungarian algorithm, for instance. But of course when we’re dealing with millions of users, computing love distances isn’t trivial, and because our matches are imperfect, we’ll want to serve up more than one match. The three-pronged approach outlined by John solves these issues:
Reducing the pool of potential matches using compatibility ratings using self-reported psychological profile surveys, and factors such as sexual preference, age, location, etc.
Computing affinity between potential matches based on demographics, text features, visual features, etc.
Optimally serving matches to users based on affinity, ie. via a daily email
compatibility
The first part is the most straightforward: based on secret sauce internal surveys and insights from psychology, people are rated as more or less compatible with each other. The compatibility rating encompasses both single-person personality traits and dyad – i.e. similarity – traits.
Results are also filtered by sexual preference, age brackets, location, etc. This first pass eliminates a lot of non-compatible matches based a hard threshold, and thus sparsifies the love-distance matrix to a much more manageable of non-zero elements. I would also venture that it probably results in the creation of cliques, e.g. by location, which allows parallelization for subsequent steps.
Affinity
The affinity score is a computed probability that two users will communicate, based on a trained logistic regression model. The training data consists of logs of whether two users communicated given their profiles. Training is done using Vowpal Wabbit, a horribly named but potent machine learning package that can do online training of linear and logistic regressions models in the terabyte regime.
You live and die by your features; eHarmony uses classic features like site usage statistics, text features (bag-of-words, I presume), number of photos, etc. extracted from pairs of users. I imagine that the training matrix also includes dyad features like the compatibility rating. Interestingly, eHarmony has also ventured into photo analysis lately.
John first showed examples of using Viola-Jones detectors to extract basic features of images like face area/photo area. The ubiquitous Viola-Jones detector, implemented in OpenCV, uses a cascaded stub classifier to decide whether an image location contains a face. The classifier uses Haar-like features, which can be computed very efficiently using integral images, and is trained using AdaBoost.
face parts
John then showed more recent results using the Face Parts detector, which I didn’t know about, but is pretty amazing. The idea behind Face Parts is that a face can be deconstructed into parts arranged in a tree structure. Part match – e.g. a score which says how eyebrow-like an image patch is – is determined by the dot product of a template with a histogram of Gaussians (HOG) feature set.
FaceParts
The parts are joined by “springs”, and the total spring deformation determines how energetic a configuration of parts is – low energy configurations are better. A weighted sum of appearance and structural scores determines the “goodness” of a particular configuration.
The goodness of all configurations can be estimated and maximized effectively using a message-passing algorithm because of the special tree structure of the springs model. Several potential tree structures are allowed – for instance, one for front facing faces, another for profile – so that pose estimation, detection, and landmark detection are all done with the same step. Pretty slick.
Training is done in a maximum-margin setting using structured SVM learning methods. Once the model is trained, it’s evaluated on faces in the eHarmony dataset, and various features are extracted from the image: things like ratios of face width to face heights and whether you’re showing cleavage or not. Jon implemented an efficient version which is open source and available on GitHub.
My understanding is that these features are not encoded dyadically in the affinity model: e.g. it doesn’t try to match guys with mustaches with women showing cleavage. Rather, these are monadic features that determine how likely you are to be communicated with, i.e. how attractive you are. And how likely you are to receive communication is important in the next step, matching, which tries to make everybody happy: à chaque guenille son torchon.
matching
Finally, we have to match users optimally. The system sets a goal of 6 to 10 matches per person, and runs a directed flow solver to maximize total flow in a directed acyclic graph – the sum total of affinity scores of matched people – using the CS2 algorithm.
A very interesting cutting edge development – not in production right now – is the idea of serving more or less matches to certain people based on their profile. Some people like more choice, some less – introverts, for example (maybe).
Without knowing a priori if a certain person is a maximizer or satisficer, how do you find their optimal number of matches? One approach would be, for a month, to select a number of matches at random from day to day, and then from then on pick whichever number yielded the most communications for that person. But aren’t we just wasting a lot of days with this strategy?
In fact this problem is the classic multi-armed bandit problem in disguise. You have a series of one-armed bandits – a mathematical idealization of slot machines – which give rewards with certain, unknown, probability. Each trial, you pick a bandit, and gets its reward. The problem is then to maximize the total reward over a given period of time; that is, to minimize the total regret. This requires balancing exploration and exploitation.
One strategy which is not quite optimal but nevertheless very fast and effective is the UCB policy, which says that you should pick whichever arm has the highest upper confidence bound. So the UCB policy could be deployed in this scenario to rapidly find a users’ optimal number of matches.
Here, we have more data that we can exploit – we know users’ profiles. This problem can be treated within the framework of the contextual bandit – basically, classic bandit + regression on features. There’s a very slick paper from Yahoo! labs that shows how to generalize the UCB strategy to the contextual bandit problem, which I highly recommend you check out.
conclusion
At the end of the day, is it all worth it? John highlighted a paper published in PNAS that showed that people who got married from online dating have higher martial satisfaction than those who met offline, and among dating sites, eHarmony has the best marital satisfaction rates.
Despite the fact that the survey underlying the paper was commissioned by eHarmony itself, the stats look legit, and PNAS is a pretty damn good journal, of course. Of course, one can’t eliminate self-selection biases, i.e. people who want to be in committed relationships select this particular site, as Aziz Ansari points out:
* for each (female) washcloth, a (male) washcloth, i.e. to each his own. Quebecois French has a lot of terms for washcloth for some reason – see also débarbouillette, which literally translates to “a small item that removes scribbles (from one’s face)”.
The Boston man who first reported late last month that his Comcast bill had suddenly increased due to an increase in cable modem rental fees, and then complained to the Federal Communications Commission about it, now tells Ars that he’s received a credit of $30 on his account as a direct result of that complaint.
"I received a call from Comcast [corporate] offices this morning, and they've reversed the price increase for the length of my contract," Eric Studley e-mailed Ars on Thursday morning.
"It seems that the FCC complaint was the largest factor in that. I'm guessing Comcast is paying close attention to complaints before the FCC makes its decision on Net Neutrality/Internet as a public service."
Each row represents a timeline for a homepage, and a color-coded tick is added for each day a homepage is checked. There are four categories: blocked, no censorship detected, inconclusive (meaning there's mixed results from different testing servers), and no data.
For the most part it looks like there isn't a ton of switches between no censorship and blocked. There's some between inconclusive and blocked, but that might just be a server thing. Hard to say. However, the Wall Street Journal looks like it was blocked around the anniversary of Tiananmen Square, with a mostly green to mostly red transition. And of course, for reference, Facebook and Twitter is a bunch of red.
One interesting bit, and I don't know if it's just a coincidence, but there are some green slivers that appear after December 17, the day the project went up.
Comcast users in various parts of the country have already gotten (or may soon get) a lovely holiday present from their ISP—a seemingly inexplicable increase in the cable modem rental fee, from $8 to $10 per month.
Eric Studley, of Boston, who posts on reddit as Slayer0606, first pointed out the increase on Tuesday. After reading Studley’s post, Ars encouraged readers who rent Comcast modems to check their bills and found that the increases seem to have taken place as far back as October 2014, while others took effect as of December 20, 2014 and January 1, 2015.
The company did not immediately respond to Ars’ request for comment.
When International Space Station Commander Barry Wilmore needed a wrench, NASA knew just what to do. They "e-mailed" him one. This is the first time an object has been designed on Earth and then transmitted to space for manufacture.
Made In Space, the California company that designed the 3D printer aboard the ISS, overheard Wilmore mentioning the need for a ratcheting socket wrench and decided to create one. Previously, if an astronaut needed a specific tool it would have to be flown up on the next mission to the ISS, which could take months.
This isn't the first 3D-printed object made in space, but it is the first created to meet the needs of an astronaut. In November astronauts aboard the ISS printed a replacement part for the recently installed 3D printer. A total of 21 objects have now been printed in space, all of which will be brought back to Earth for testing.
It has come to this: Brookline Police apparently now have to stock their cruisers with hockey sticks to keep the town's poultry punks under control. Science-fiction writer and elected town official Michael A. Burstein captured the tense moment Monday morning at Sumner and Blake streets. No word if the Boston cruiser was there for extra firepower, just in case.
An Asian restaurant on the western edge of Cambridge's Kendall Square was hit by a fire last night, and it appears that the blaze caused extensive damage to the place.
According to reports on WBZ 1030 this morning, MuLan Taiwanese Cuisine on Broadway was "gutted" in what was apparently a two-alarm fire, with a Twitter post from @ndoyle showing that the adjacent Beauty's Pizza was hit by the blaze as well. The photos from @ndoyle as well as a Twitter picture from @dcopewbz indicate that MuLan indeed suffered some major damage, though exact reports on the extent of the damage are not yet in.
MuLan Taiwanese Cuisine first opened in the former Pho Lemon space approximately 10 years ago; they also have a second location on Main Street in Waltham.
The address for MuLan is 228 Broadway, Cambridge, MA, 02139. Its website can be found at http://www.mulan-ma.com/
On the tail of our previous paper about confidence intervals, showing that researchers tend to misunderstand the inferences one can draw from CIs, we [Morey, Rink Hoekstra, Jeffrey Rouder, Michael Lee, and EJ Wagenmakers] have another paper that we have just submitted which talks about the theory underlying inference by CIs. Our main goal is to elucidate for researchers why many of the things commonly believed about CIs are false, and to show that the theory of CIs does not offer a very compelling theory for inference.
One thing that I [Morey] have noted going back to the classic literature is how clear Neyman seemed about all this. Neyman was under no illusions about what the theory could or could not support. It was later authors who tacked on all kinds of extra interpretations to CIs. I think he would be appalled at how CIs are used.
From their abstract:
The width of confidence intervals is thought to index the precision of an estimate; the parameter values contained within a CI are thought to be more plausible than those outside the interval; and the confidence coefficient of the interval (typically 95%) is thought to index the plausibility that the true parameter is included in the interval. We show in a number of examples that CIs do not necessarily have any of these properties, and generally lead to incoherent inferences. For this reason, we recommend against the use of the method of CIs for inference.
I agree, and I too have been pushing against the idea that confidence intervals resolve the well-known problems with null hypothesis significance testing. I also had some specific thoughts:
For another take on the precision fallacy (the idea that the width of a confidence interval is a measure of the precision of an estimate), see my post, “Why it doesn’t make sense in general to form confidence intervals by inverting hypothesis tests.” See in particular the graph which illustrates the problem very clearly, I think:
Regarding the general issue that confidence intervals are no inferential panacea, see my recent article, “P values and statistical practice,” in which I discuss the problem of taking a confidence interval from a flat prior and using it to make inferences and decisions.
My current favorite (hypothetical) example is an epidemiology study of some small effect where the point estimate of the odds ratio is 3.0 with a 95% conf interval of [1.1, 8.2]. As a 95% conf interval, this is fine (assuming the underlying assumptions regarding sampling, causal identification, etc. are valid). But if you slap on a flat prior you get a Bayes 95% posterior interval of [1.1, 8.2] which will not in general make sense, because real-world odds ratios are much more likely to be near 1.1 than to be near 8.2. In a practical sense, the uniform prior is causing big problems by introducing the possibility of these high values that are not realistic. And taking a confidence interval and treating it as a posterior interval gives problems too. Hence the generic advice to look at confidence intervals rather than p-values does not solve the problem.
I think the Morey et al. paper is important in putting all these various ideas together and making it clear what are the unstated assumptions of interval estimation.
Hi, I’m writing this so I can refer to it when covering “giving a presentation” in my statistical communication class. The general idea is for me to spend less time in class talking and more time helping out students with their ideas. So, if I have any general advice on presentations, let me give it here.
1. As always, think ahead of time about your goals and your audience.
2. When you start your talk, make your goals clear.
3. If you are given X minutes to talk, you may well have more than X minutes worth of stuff to say. That’s fine. Spend .8X minutes on your material and the final .2X minutes explaining how this fits in with the other stuff you don’t have time to say.
4. If you’re talking about your research, make your contributions clear. It’s not about bragging rights, it’s about making it clear to the audience why they should be listening to you on this topic.
5. Fractality: Every piece of your talk should contain all of it. OK, not really, but the key point is that most people won’t be paying attention all the time. So if someone tunes in at some random point in the talk, they should be able to follow along from that point. People always give the advice to start broad and then drill deep—and I agree, that’s good advice—but when you’re drilling deep, keep sending soundings out to the surface to remind people why you’re doing all this.
There’s lots of other good advice:
– Don’t put so many words on your slides; instead, write down some notes and say what you want to say.
– Move around, don’t stand still.
– If you have slides and they are displayed at a reachable height, stand in front of them and point at them with your hands. If instead you stand somewhere else (for example, wherever your computer happens to be), the trouble is that people in the audience won’t know whether to look at you (where the sound is coming from) or at the slides.
– If you know anyone—anyone—in the audience, plant a question or two. This isn’t “cheating,” it’s just a way to get the post-talk question period to go more smoothly.
– And here’s what Hal Stern told me before I presented my first professional talk: Don’t try to blow them away, it’s enough to just present what you did. If it’s good stuff, it can stand up unadorned and a discerning audience will realize its importance. And if it’s not good stuff, you shouldn’t be wasting people’s time on it anyway.
I could keep going but I think points 1 through 5 above are the most important.
But maybe I’m missing something big? Feel free to add your own suggestions in the comments.
Color exists on a continuous spectrum, but we bin them with names and descriptions that reflect perception and sometimes culture. We saw this with gender a while back. Wikipedia has a short description on culture differences and color naming.
Muyueh Lee looked at this binning through the lens of English versus Chinese color naming. More specifically, he looked at Chinese color names on Wikipedia and compared them against English color names. This comes with its own sampling biases because of higher Wikipedia usage for English speakers, but when you divide by color categories, it's a different story.
