Chaitanya Patel
Shared posts
What is in a name? Lots..Ask Dettol
Adam Smith, Watch Prices, and the Industrial Revolution
Is a strong currency better than a weak currency?
Weekend links – March 14 2015
Let’s start this week with a topic that has been much discussed recently, and I really liked this contrast of how the discourse of rape is in India versus elsewhere in the world. How the west deals with rape?
The current government seems to be active on many fronts, and taking actions where the previous one was sleeping. An interesting piece on how India targets Maoist Jungle Stronghold to Win Mining Riches
Curiosity is as important as intelligence when it comes to your development as a person.
3-D printing has always been of interest to me so to see this really weird 3-D printed brick that can cool your house really made my day. The article has some information on how a similar device was used to cool houses in the olden days and it was quite a good read.
I was recently checking on air ticket prices, and found out that it is cheaper to fly to Bangkok from Hyderabad than it is to go to Assam. Visa hassles are the one thing that deter me from traveling abroad so it was good to get a list of these countries that have visa on arrival for Indians.
Saudi Arabia has become the world’s biggest arms importer, and guesss who they have edged out?
Great, great article on not only how there could be life but more than that on how they were able to detect such a thing in the first place. Why the warm ocean on the moon of this Saturn could be perfect for life?
Enjoy your weekend!
Related posts:
Power of Increasing Your SIP by 5% or 10% Every Year
Reliance Industries remains @ Rs 885 ! ~ Gone Nowhere last Six Years !
Financial market growth and resource mis-allocation
First, the growth of a country's financial system is a drag on productivity growth. That is, higher growth in the financial sector reduces real growth. In other words, financial booms are not, in general, growth-enhancing, likely because the financial sector competes with the rest of the economy for resources... This is a consequence of the fact that financial sector growth benefits disproportionately high collateral/low productivity projects. This mechanism reflects the fact that periods of high financial sector growth often coincide with the strong development in sectors like construction, where returns on projects are relatively easy to pledge as collateral but productivity (growth) is relatively low...
Second, using sectoral data, we examine the distributional nature of this effect and find that credit booms harm what we normally think of as the engines for growth – those that are more R&D intensive... We report estimates that imply that a highly R&D-intensive industry located in a country with a rapidly growing financial system will experience productivity growth of something like 2 percentage points per year less than an industry that is not very R&D-intensive located in a country with a slow-growing financial system... By draining resources from the real economy, the financial sector becomes a drag on real growth.In simple terms, when capital is available in plenty and cheap, it is more likely to get mis-allocated to less-productive sectors prone to asset-bubbles like construction and real-estate and away from more productive but riskier activities like start-ups and entrepreneurial ventures or research and development intensive sectors. They also find that "when finance is ascendant in an economy, it attracts an inordinate number of highly skilled workers who might otherwise take their productivity and brains to non-financial industries." A corollary to this is that real estate and construction asset bubbles generate financial resource mis-allocation effects that adversely affects the real economy.
This mechanism partially explains India's brief high-growth episode of 2003-08. It was associated with cheap and plentiful credit which fuelled a real-estate bubble and construction boom. This was amplified by sharply increased public and private spending on infrastructure sectors - roads, ports, airports, power projects, urban utilities, mining etc. The share of construction sector in the gross value added and total employment rose disproportionately. In contrast manufacturing's share of employment contracted and output remained stagnant. Instead of trying their luck in knowledge-based sectors and manufacturing, entrepreneurial talent flocked to high-return but less productive real estate and infrastructure sectors.
The net result was a growth episode whose foundations were laid on low productivity non-tradeable construction sector. This was unlikely to be sustainable and collapsed when faced with adverse shocks leaving behind distressed balance sheets in both the construction-intensive infrastructure sectors as well as among their creditors. An infrastructure and construction focussed revival of economic growth, without adequate contribution from productivity enhancing tradeable sectors like manufacturing, is only likely to repeat the story.
Important Update: Value Investing Almanack (Free Course Inside)
I had recently launched my premium newsletter called Value Investing Almanack (VIA), through which I aim to bring you the best ideas in value investing, human behaviour, and business analysis.
While I have received a great response for the newsletter, a lot of tribe members have also sent emails about what they would receive through their subscription to VIA.
So, one member asks, “Would I receive just 12 issues of the newsletter or is there something else lined up as well?”
My answer is – “No, it’s not just 12 issues of VIA that you would receive through this subscription.”
A typical issue of VIA will include the following broad topics –
- Spotlight: Big ideas from Value Investing and why applying them in your investment decision making will be a great deal
- Behaviouronomics: Deep analysis of human behaviour and how it impacts investment decision making
- StockTalk: Thorough analysis of business models of companies (without any recommendations)
- Business Snapshots: Quick snapshots of great and gruesome businesses
- BookWorm: Reviews of the best books on Value Investing and related subjects
- InvestorInsights: Interviews with experienced and upcoming value investors
- Corporate Governance: Thoughts on what companies do in terms of good and bad corporate governance and how you can separate the two
- Ethical Analyst: Thoughts on loose ideals of the investment industry and why ethical practices are of great importance now than ever before
- Life 2.0: Practical and effective ideas on living a simple, sensible life
- What We’re Reading: Links to a great external sources we’re reading
In short, there’s a great amount of learning packed in just one newsletter!
And this is not all!
Apart from these monthly issues, subscribers would also receive one Special Report at the end of every month, which may include a view (without any prediction) on the stock market, or a company analysis, or an additional book review, or any such special analysis that would benefit investment decision making.
And here’s something very special that I am deciding to give away FREE with a 1-year subscription to VIA…
Financial Statement Analysis for Smart People (Special Online Course)
Financial Statement Analysis for Smart People (FSASP) is a special online course that I’ve designed to help people gain a deep understanding of how to read financial statements, and in a very simplified manner.
By taking up this course…
- You will not only learn how to look at each number in the three financial statements – Balance Sheet, Income Statement, and Cash Flow Statement – but will also learn what numbers to look at deeply and which ones to avoid.
- You will learn how the three financial statements are inter-connected and how you can assess a company’s true financial health by studying the inter-connections.
- You will learn how to calculate the most important ratios to be able to separate the visibly good numbers from the actual ones.
- You will learn how to read an annual report, especially the key sections that will give you a lot of ideas on what the company has done in the past, and where it is headed in the future.
- Very importantly, you will learn how companies commit financial frauds – known as ‘shenanigans’ – and how you can identify them so as to reduce the number of mistakes you make by buying bad businesses.
Through the FSASP course, you will get…
- 10 comprehensive PDF lessons on – Reading annual reports, understanding financial statements, conducting comprehensive ratio analysis, and identifying financial shenanigans.
- 4 hours of classroom-style video lessons
- Several real-life examples of Indian companies to help put things into perspective
Now, I sell the FSASP course at a price of Rs 3,999. But when you subscribe to VIA for 1-year, you will get this course absolutely FREE.
Imagine the amount of time you’ll save reading the VIA and other special resources – like the FSASP Course – instead of searching for the best ideas on investing from hundreds of books, websites, and other resources.
To sum up, here are all the benefits you can achieve when you subscribe to VIA –
- 12 power-packed issues of VIA containing the best practical ideas on value investing, human behaviour, and business analysis;
- 12 special reports (market view/company analysis/book review);
- Free Course – Financial Statement Analysis for Smart People (otherwise priced at Rs 3,999; available only for 1-year subscriptions to VIA); and
- Rs 1,000 early bird discount on the base fee (available till 15th March only)
Now, if you are interested..
[Click Here to Subscribe to VIA]
Here’s to your wealth and wisdom!
ATM’s new form is Any Time Monetary Policy..
Universal health coverage in a graphic
The best that India can hope for the foreseeable future is to achieve high people coverage, of reliable standards, for a defined basic set of medical conditions, including the more common high-cost conditions (like heart ailments, dialysis etc). The conditions coverage should also include the provision of generic drugs and all basic diagnostic tests, made freely available for those below a certain income level through public facilities as well as by contracting in from private providers.
Book Review — India’s New Capitalists: Caste, Business, and Industry in a Modern Nation
It is all about durability
The easiest way to justify a high PE stock is to say that it has a moat or in other words a sustainable competitive advantage. Once these magic words are uttered, no further analysis or thinking is needed. If there is a moat, it does not matter if the stock sells at a PE of 30 or 70. It is all the same.
- EPS = 10 Rs
- Return on capital (ROC) = 22%
- Growth in profits = 15 %
- Company is able to maintain this return on capital and growth for 10 years. After that the ROC drops to 12% and growth to 8% (leading to a terminal PE of around 12)
So what are the key points?
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Stocks discussed in this post are for educational purpose only and not recommendations to buy or sell. Please contact a certified investment adviser for your investment decisions. Please read disclaimer towards the end of blog.
The budget and you!
First of all the caveat: What you do with your own budget and life is far, far, far more important in your personal life.
What Jaitely does with the budget is more of academic, economic or political interest. It should not really matter too much.
However, in a country with so much noise about the budget and people wanting big bang reforms, let us see what is really happening.
First take the case of Mr. Mistry of the Tata Group. No comments about the budget, no comments about infra, no complaints, but goes about substantially building the group. I mean consolidating.
He has not announced any big acquisition, de merger, overseas listing, ….etc. etc. However, he has gone about slowly selling a small piece of land here and there, some mining interest in Indonesia, made sure Starbucks role out is happening well – the pricing is just about perfect. He pulled out of a bank license. He is investing in a car factory in China and now in the mecca of the car industry, USA.
Of course our media does not think of this as a big news, but do not be surprised to see Tata Motors double from here. Markets have respect for cash flow. Media has respect for Virat Kohli giving gaalis to a scribe. Choose your poison.
Cut to Narendra Modi’s budget. Just like Mr. Mistry, Na Mo too knew what was important. External Affairs. If he did not do big level marketing your investment bankers could not have gone and attracted money to be invested in India. Then GAAR went out of the window. The IT department was asked to back off its aggression. ‘Establishment of office’ – the stupid clause went. So a Sandip Sabhrawal can manage Mr. Bill Gates’s money sitting in India.
Hey, THESE ARE NOT RADICAL, but these changes will make money available for the Infra spending that we need.
Committing US $ 12 billion for infra (much needed of course) while leaving $ 40 billion for the poor is not easy, it has been done.
Infra spending will increase strength to concentrate on poverty alleviation programs. Setting up toilets for the poor – including schools – will ensure women’s safety and women coming to school. The urban elite does not seem to appreciate this at all.
Good roads are a prerequisite for a bigger manufacturing India. This is not rocket science, is it?
Like any good company the investments have to be made and then you need patience. When Aditya Puri of Hdfc bank raises money in 2015 Jan – you KNOW he is expecting the wholesale banking is going to grow in 2015, and 2016. This confidence comes from seeing the Na Mo government work.
The Railway budget and the Union budget have BOTH brilliantly incorporated Na Mo’s wish list of Investment led growth.
Now go out there and invest YOUR time and effort towards YOUR growth. Do an annually increasing SIP. The market CANNOT GO UP TOO FAST – remember at 30k index you have already seen a 50% growth last year on the indices.
Temper your expectations, but yes fasten your seat belts. We may just take off. 8% growth? 8.3% growth?
who knows?
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RM is a fraud!!
When S came to meet me in 2009 she had money in the early 2 digit crores…surely more than enough for a 48 year old retiree. I spoke to her, but the glamour of a suave ‘beta’ kind of a Foreign bank was greater…and there she went.
That guy told her the following things:
– Your son does not have a proper job, so he cannot invest in mutual funds.
– The best investments for you are ULIP and structured deals in RE.
– For liquidity you should leave substantial amounts in the savings bank (about 10 years expenses were lying in the SB account)
-Obviously they were a ‘Premium’ account holder.
– the real estate deals are of course a lemon. A dried one at that, you cannot even make a lemonade.
– the RM left the bank and joined a more shady Indian “Wealth damagement” organisation and did a couple of deals with them.
– he has now joined the bank again (came back to the bank) and has sold them another big ULIP which the client can ill afford.
-Oh far more importantly neither the lady nor the son are employed.
Moral of the story?
– If God gave you money it does not mean he gave you money management skills.
– If you do not understand what your bank RM is telling you, say NO.
– If you do not understand what your bank RM is telling you , at least understand that you do not understand.
– You have no excuse to live in a city like Delhi / any other Metro and pretend that you ‘trusted’ the RM
– trusting the RM in most cases a case of being lazy.
– The first transaction could have been bad, but allowing him to cheat you continually for 3 years is STUPIDITY.
– Why the hell would you buy property in locations that you have no hope of visiting or understanding
– Why would you pay interests to a builder at a dramatically high rate when you had money sitting in your SB account?
– whoever you are dealing with you have to check the documents that are coming to you. Simple.
Solution? Search me!!
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The problems with "universal" in universal health coverage
You Will Not Believe The Real Cost of the Subsidized Insurance and Pension Schemes In The Budget
There were three new “social” schemes in the budget. These sounded like big government expenditure and the devil is obviously in the details. We have some details from the FinMin.
Accidental Death Insurance for Everyone at Rs. 12 per year
How does this work?
People between 18 and 70 years old, who have a bank account linked to her Aadhaar, give a form to their bank to auto-debit their accounts each year. The insurance will be offered by public insurers and optionally by private insurers too.
Death or full disability is covered with Rs. 200,000 and partial disability is Rs. 100,000.
Cost: At Rs. 12 a year, a premium is hugely subsidized by the government. But how much? I did a quick calculation for a similar policy with Oriental Insurance (a public sector insurer), and the premium came to Rs. 90 per year. The subsidy then comes to Rs.… (Read On...)
Can I retire with….?
People ask me some very simple questions and expect to get a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer. Many a times I give it too. It is just meaningless.
Let me tackle with 2 such questions, and I hope you appreciate that the answers are not so simple after all.
The first question is “Subra I have about Rs. 3 crores…do you think it is enough for me to retire?”. The second question is “In how much time do you think I can finish the half marathon?”.
Simple questions, yes, sure, but very very damn complicated answers.
Easiest answer? No application of the mind, say a yes or a no. The person asking is very happy, and I am amused that they have no clue that I did not say anything. Hey I did not apply my mind to that question!!
If you are 49 years of age and you have Rs. 3 crores, HOW THE HELL will I know whether you can retire NOW?
Seriously, please think before you ask such a question. I need to ask you the following questions:
1. What does this Rs. 3 crore consist of? The Rs. 2 crore house with Rs. 40 lakhs furnishing? The one which you bought last year?
2. How long do you expect to live (no matter that your answer is wrong, but I can plan only with a number).
3. When will you actually retire?
4. What will be corpus when you retire?
5. What are your liabilities?
6. How much are your monthly expenses……………….the list just goes on and on…It would be about 40 questions well asked, and well articulated.
If you do all that I will give you an answer. This answer could be off the correct answer by 90%. Sorry but Retirement calculations need to be done on a monthly basis till about 5 years into retirement.
EVEN after that you need to keep checking whether the assumptions are working.
Nos some homework for you: If a person asks a stupid question :”In how much time will I be able to run a half marathon’ – what questions do you think you can ask?
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Yahoo! : A Few Billion Dollar Ideas That The Company Missed Out On
(Belated) Happy birthday Yahoo!
You surely have grown (20 years old!) and we hope you continue to grow further.
And like any other kid, you too have your own hits and misses. We at NextBigWhat have compiled some of the big billion dollar products that you had, but you probably lacked the foresight to double down on these.
Yahoo: Flickr
The NextBigWhat Startup: Instagram
Yahoo! Local
The NextBigWhat Startup: Yelp (and Zomato).
Yahoo! Messenger
The NextBigWhat Startup: WhatsApp
Yahoo! Groups
The NextBigWhat Startup: Facebook
Yahoo! Music
The NextBigWhat Startup: Spotify
Yahoo! Live
The NextBigWhat Startup: Twitch
Yahoo! Briefcase
The NextBigWhat Startup: Dropbox
Yahoo! Homes
The NextBigWhat Startup: Zillow
Yahoo! Travel
The NextBigWhat Startup: Trip Advisor
Who in the tech history has missed so many opportunities? Microsoft comes closer, we believe.
The post Yahoo! : A Few Billion Dollar Ideas That The Company Missed Out On appeared first on NextBigWhat.
The “Secret” of Berkshire Hathaway
This piece has kind of a long personal introduction to illustrate my point. If you don’t want to be bored with my personal history, just skip down to the next division marker after this one.
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There will always be a soft spot in my heart for people who toil in lower level areas of insurance companies, doing their work faithfully in the unsexy areas of the business. I’ve been there, and I worked with many competent people who will forever be obscure.
One day at Provident Mutual’s Pension Division [PMPD], my friend Roy came to me and said, “You know what the big secret is of the Pension Division?” I shook my head to say no. He said, ” The big secret is — there is no secret,” and then he smiled and nodded his head. I nodded my head too.
The thing was, we were ultra-profitable, growing fast, and our financials and strategies were simple. Other areas of the company were less profitable, growing more slowly, and had accrual items that were rather complex and subject to differing interpretations. But since the 30 of us (out of a company of 800) were located in a corner of the building, away from everyone else, we felt misunderstood.
So one day, I was invited by an industry group of actuaries leading pension lines of business to give a presentation to the group. I decided to present on the business model of the PMPD, and give away most of our secrets. After preparing the presentation, I went home and told my wife that I would be away in Portland, Oregon for two days, when she informed me we had an important schedule conflict.
I was stuck. I tried to cancel, but the leader of the group was so angry at me for trying to cancel late, when I hung up the phone, I just put my head on my desk in sorrow.
Then it hit me. What if I videotaped my presentation and sent that in my place? I called the leader of the group back, and he loooved the idea. I was off and running.
One afternoon of taping and $600 later, I had the taped presentation. It detailed marketing, sales, product design, risk control, computer systems design, and more. If you wanted to duplicate what we did, you would have had a road map.
But the presentation ended with a hook of sorts, where I explained why I was so free with what we were doing. We were the smallest player in the sub-industry, though the fastest growing, and with one of the highest profit margins. I said, “The reason I can share all of this with you is that if you wanted to copy us, you would have to change an incredible amount of what you do, and kill off areas where you have invested a lot already. I know you can’t do that. But maybe you can imitate a few of our ideas and improve your current business model.”
So my colleague took the tape to the meeting, and when he returned, he handed me a baseball cap that had the word “Portland” on it. He said, “You did it, Dave. You won the best presentation of the conference award. Everyone sent their thanks.”
Sadly, that was one of the last things I did in the Pension Division, as corporate management chose me to clean up another division of the company. That is another story, but one I got few thanks for.
Today I call that hat “the $600 hat,” and I wear it to my kids baseball and softball games as I keep score.
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The secret of Berkshire Hathaway is the same as my story above. There is no secret. Buffett’s methods have been written about by legions; his methods are well known. The same applies to Charlie Munger. That’s why in my opinion, there were no significant surprises in their 50th anniversary annual letter. (There were some small surprises in the annual report, but they’re kinda obscure, and I’ll write about those tomorrow.) All of the significant building blocks have been written about by too many people to name.
Originally, this evening, I was going to write about the annual report, but then I bumped across this piece of Jim Cramer’s on Buffett. Let me quote the most significant part:
…Cramer couldn’t help but wonder if things in the business world could be different if we approached other CEOs the way that Buffett is approached.
Perhaps, if the good CEOs were allowed to stay on longer like Buffett has or if people treated them as if they were their companies the way that Buffett is treated in relation to Berkshire, things could be different?
“Clearly something’s gone awry in the business world if we can praise this one man for everything he does, and yet every other chief executive feels shackled into being nothing like him,” Cramer said.
Cramer is very close to the following insight: the reason why more companies don’t imitate Berkshire Hathaway is that they would have to destroy too much of their existing corporations to make it worth their while. As such, the “secrets” of Berkshire Hathaway can be hidden in plain view of all, because the only way to create something like it would be to start from scratch. Yes, you can imitate pieces of it, but it’s not the same thing.
Creating a very profitable diversified industrial conglomerate financed by insurance liabilities is a very unique strategy, and one that few would have the capability of replicating. It required intelligent investing, conservative underwriting, shrewd analysis of management teams so that they would act independently and ethically, and more.
Indeed, an amazing plan in hindsight. Kudos to Buffett and Munger for their clever business sense. It will be difficult for anyone to pursue the same strategy as well as they did.
But in my next piece, I will explain why one element of the strategy may be weakening. Until then.
Full disclosure: long BRK/B for myself and clients
Ex-Igate CEO Phaneesh Murthy’s Online Pharmacy Looks To Raise $10mn
Former Igate CEO Phaneesh Murthy’s new online pharmacy marketplace – PM Health and Life Care, is looking to raise $10 million in funding.
Murthy’s venture capital firm PM Ventures will invest $2 million in the firm, while other investors include Tiger Ramesh and Ramesh Mengawade, who’ve invested $1 milllion.
The online pharmacy marketplace will make its debut in September this year, and will deliver drugs across 10 cities initially within committed delivery timelines.
The Indian pharma retail market is estimated to be worth $56 billion, out of which unorganized players’ account for over 95% of the market.
Given the recent growth of online shopping in India, along with the dearth of large trusted players in the market, PM Health and Life Care is looking to disrupt the Indian pharma market for good.
[Source: Times Of India]
The post Ex-Igate CEO Phaneesh Murthy’s Online Pharmacy Looks To Raise $10mn appeared first on NextBigWhat.
NaMo, Jaitely and the budget…..
Let us be fair to Arun Jaitely, it was not an easy job. His boss has clearly said ‘no populist measures’, and AJ himself is not very experienced.
On the other hand AJ or Na Mo did not really matter. The people are (were) expecting magic from Na Mo. The people surrounding him would have made him believe that he is God (the Delhi results helped in keeping him on the ground).
The Railway budget and the annual Central Budget have one thing in common – many small changes. Chipping away at the stone so that it looks like an idol is Na Mo’s way of doing things. He does not do big bang. Of course Ganga cleaning, Swachha Bharat, etc. are big bang, but he did not announce any big bang reforms in the financial sector.
His team has correctly identified our biggest problem – lack of investments by the people who have money. Look even at Bombay House – Mr. Mistry is consolidating. He has sold assets, companies, etc. BUT he is not investing big time. He realizes that mistakes like Mundhra can hurt even a big group like the Tatas and hold back their growth. I am sure the group’s biggest investment is in JLR and not in any other business. The reasons are obvious.
The tax change from 30% to 25% is a welcome move – but it will not really make people invest more. Tax is only for people who make profits!!
The infra funds like spending $ 12 billion and the setting up of an Infra fund with Rs 20,000 crore capital allocated is good, but one has to see the implementation.
No major changes in taxation, but I do not like the increase in Service tax. This hurts the small man more than the big man.
Not sure whether he can do a differential service tax. I am not sure whether it is worthwhile.
Why the individual personal taxation also cannot be reduced like the corporate tax rate, beats me. However, I continue to maintain that we are in the MECCA OF TAXATION as far as equities is concerned. It cannot get better.
Like I said elsewhere “The Forbes List does not have any employees” – to get seriously rich you need CAPITAL GAINS.
However, the budget is not bad. Like they say the devil is in the details. Let us see Na Mo’s ability to implement. I wish him all the luck and hope that he is able to do a good job. As a man NARENDRA MODI has shown amazing implementation skills in Gujarat. Let us hope we allow him to do it for India.
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Berkshire Hathaway letters
a nice read, just 42 pages…you should start reading from page 24…and read very slowly to see if you have made similar mistakes / correct decisions / what could go wrong.
Remember what you have read elsewhere too….LEARNING is not about reading, it is about applying.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2014ltr.pdf
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Missing the anti-inflation central bankers.
Andrew Sentance clearly misses the central bankers of the 1980s, the fighters against high inflation. He has an interesting definition of a central banker job:
"The job of a central banker is to make unpopular decisions when politicians will not. We saw that in the 1970s and 1980s from the Bundesbank and the US Federal Reserve."
And, unfortunately, central bankers are not fighting inflation anymore (maybe because inflation is too low?):
"It is a measure of how much has changed in the world of central banking that the very institutions that won their credibility by keeping a lid on prices now seem to be trying to create inflation, not subdue it."
And it gets even worse when he looks back at 2011:
"Central banks now seem ready to do whatever it takes to sustain growth — to a degree that casts doubt on the genuineness of their commitment to price stability. Monetary policy deliberately turned a blind eye to relatively high inflation in 2011-12."
There are two central banks that were worried about inflation in those years: the ECB and the Swedish central bank. Not sure they are the example to follow.
What both articles share is an asymmetric view of inflation. In some sense inflation can only be too high. High inflation represents a real risk with significant costs while inflation below target might just be ok (despite all the evidence to the contrary of the recent crisis).
Their criticisms would have a lot more power if inflation was going up anywhere in the world, but it is isn't. So they need to find another cost of this unreasonable policy of trying to raise inflation back to its target. And what Martin Feldstein finds is the financial instability that "low interest rates" create (a point also made by many other critics of current central bank actions).
But, as Paul Krugman points out, it is really odd to hear these arguments coming from those who tend to believe in the power and efficiency of markets (relative to government policies). How can it be that financial markets are so easily fooled by monetary policy and end up mispricing assets in such a bad way as to create a bubble that will have large and negative consequences on the economy? Because we are not just talking about asset prices going up as interest rates are low, we are talking about bubbles and instability. If this is really what we believe, wouldn't this be an argument to enforce some strong regulation on markets that are unable understand how interest rates and other macroeconomic trends affect asset prices?
This is not to deny that periods of unusually low interest rates can indeed create confusion in investors and markets (what some call "search for yield"). But to make this argument one needs to first understand the global nature of this phenomenon that suggests that the reasons for low interest rates extend beyond the particular actions of a central bank. And then we need a theory of financial markets, their irrational behavior and how the central bank can influence this behavior. It is unclear to me that the history of financial market bubbles teaches us much about the ability of central banks to stop excessive optimism. Real interest rates in the 1990s were high and they did not stop the largest stock market bubble the US stock market has ever seen.
Antonio Fatás
Nps: what I do not like…
New Pension Scheme is a government scheme to provide a pension for you. So why should you not invest in it?
I do not like the terms and conditions…and the fact that it is EET. I would prefer a PPF or ELSS which is EEE.
Forget that…Pattabhiraman Murari has more reasons than what I have about investing in NPS. Stay away, at least for the younger people that is the message.
What I do not like about NPS is something else. Look at the money that it controls. Assume that it is about Rs. 300,000 crores. Now this amount will increase @ 20% every year. About 10% by way of growth and 10% by way of new contribution. This is not small.
Now if this was in your control you will ensure that this is in safe hands…..However in the hands of the government this can be a bomb.
Some politician will look at Rs. 500,000 crore lying there and get nice, crazy, stupid, kameena ideas. Let me enumerate them:
1. The NPS fund has to invest 10% of its equity in Psu bond funds. This could be extended to psu equities…
2. The nps money has to be invested only in India….however we are allowing investment in US indices.
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RBI Agrees To Meet 4% Inflation Target, + or – 2%, Starting Jan 2016
Inflation targets are now at 4% starting Jan 2016. This is now a stated goal, with the Government and the RBI agreeing on it. Plus, the RBI needs to come back to the government with reasons if it goes beyond these boundaries for three quarters, with remedial steps.
While this initially sounded like the Government was trying to interfere, this is a benign move. Having a strong inflation target is good. (Here’s the full agreement)
Monetary Policy Agreement Between RBI and Government
But this pins the responsibility entirely on the RBI. The RBI cannot affect fiscal policy. If the government has increased excise duty on petrol by 84%, and crude prices go up, the only thing the RBI can do is fret: the government has to cut duties to reduce inflation. (Fuel inflation is a good part of the CPI).
This is the operating zone (shaded) of the CPI.
In recent days, inflation’s been going up.… (Read On...)
People I Admire – Part Doh
After I wrote that post on “People I Admire“, I began thinking that I should start listing my heroes. So let’s make this a series. Here’s part 2 of the series. I will mention two people. One of them used to be my neighbor at the Convent. Did you know that I spent one year at the Convent? Yes I did, although it was naturally not a functioning convent when I lived there. The other person is someone I haven’t met but I would dearly like to meet. He works (and I guess, lives) in the SF Bay area, and therefore I can claim that he’s a distant neighbor. They share one thing in common: they are both black — or to use the more politically correct term, they are African-American.
OK, so let’s start with my year of living in the Convent. As a student at UC Berkeley, I lived in a student housing co-op, the University Students Cooperative Association (USCA.) The first year I lived in a house (the largest in the co-op) called Cloyne Court & Hotel. Why that name? Because it used to be a hotel once upon a time. It’s an ancient structure, with the distinction of being on the National Registry of Historic Buildings.
Cloyne Court was huge and it housed 150 students. It also meant total chaos. So when I got the opportunity, I moved to a smaller house. The Convent (picture left), with only 24 residents, was the smallest house in the co-op. The move from the biggest house to the smallest house was really refreshing although the commute went up a bit. Cloyne Court was at the edge of the campus but the Convent was a mile west. But I am not complaining.
I got a nice corner room at the Convent overlooking the courtyard. Actually, it was more like a 8’x10′ cell but with great big windows. Remember that it used to be an actual convent. It even had a chapel which had been converted into a large game and music room. Anyhow, all the rooms were single-occupancy and small, except for one room downstairs which used to be the Mother Superior’s room and had its own attached bathroom.
Anyway, enough with the description of the general scenery.
I had noticed that the room next to mine at the Convent was always locked and that I had not seen the resident. I asked and got to know that it was a room reserved for one Mr Ward Connerly. Who? I was told that Connerly was a Regent of the University of California and that when he come to Berkeley on Regent related work, instead of staying at an expensive hotel, he sleeps over at the Convent. With time, I got to know that Mr Connerly was someone who had earned the eternal hatred of leftists. That immediately endeared him to me. I leave you to read his biography on the Wiki. Too bad I never got to meet him even though he was in a sense my neighbor.
I admire him for his principled stance on a topic of great interest to me: institutionalized discrimination. I think it is just fine by me if a person discriminates against me for whatever reason. And I too reserve my right as an individual to discriminate for or against a person or a group of my liking or disliking. What I am against is institutionalized discrimination. For instance, I don’t want the government or the legal system to discriminate for or against me based on some attribute of mine that I have no control over. It goes against the generality principle and principle of equality under law.
I will introduce the other person in the next piece in this series. Please feel free to guess who that might be.
Monetary Policy Framework Agreement: The first clarification of what RBI is to do
Our flawed inheritance
The Chamberlain Commission (1914) and the Hilton-Young Commission (1926) led to the drafting of the RBI Act. This was introduced in January 1927 and enacted in March 1934. The RBI Act does not state what the objective of RBI is. The authors of this Act were quite honest about what they were doing:
PREAMBLEFrom 1934 onwards, this `temporary provision' has been India's central bank. In the years of Indian socialism, this flawed beginning ossified into a full central planning system governing finance. Every detail of products and processes in finance is micro-managed. Alongside this, India got high and volatile inflation:
An Act to constitute a Reserve Bank of India. Whereas it is expedient to constitute a Reserve Bank for India to regulate the issue of Bank notes and the keeping of reserves with a view to securing monetary stability in [India] and generally to operate the currency any credit system of the country to its advantage;
And whereas in the present disorganisation of the monetary systems of the world it is not possible to determine what will be suitable as a permanent basis for the Indian monetary system;
But whereas it is expedient to make temporary provision on the basis of the existing monetary system, and to leave the question of the monetary standard best suited to India to be considered when the international monetary position has be come sufficiently clear and stable to make it possible to frame permanent measures.
Fiat money made by RBI failed on the prime test: low and stable inflation.
It is easy to criticise RBI. It's like going into a time machine and making fun of what folks did not know in 1934. This is not a criticism of the individuals at RBI today. The problem lies right in the institutional DNA. What we have is not a central bank; it is a central planning agency for finance, with an improbable and conflicted set of objectives. Accountability mechanisms are absent. Good governance principles, and the rule of law, are missing. Even in the hands of good individuals, RBI has lurched from one mistake to another.
Figuring out the solution
I first saw the beginnings of clarifying what RBI was about at RBI. C. Rangarajan and S. S. Tarapore essentially understood that what made sense was a focused inflation targeting RBI + an open capital account. In the 1990s, open economy macroeconomics was not as well understood, and they did not quite get the fact that this inevitably meant a floating exchange rate. But they had intellectual leadership on the idea that low and stable inflation is the dharma of a central bank.
Similarly, in the late 1990s, intellectual leadership on reforming debt management arrangements came from RBI. By the early 2000s, RBI was saying that there is a conflict of interest between the objective of debt management (i.e. to borrow for the government at low rates of interest) and the objective of monetary policy (i.e. to deliver low and stable prices). To do a good job as debt manager would generate interest rates that are too low, and give an inflationary bias. The solution was for the government to find its own debt management arrangements, and unburden RBI of this conflict of interest.
While RBI fought inflation in the 1990s, this ethos did not turn into legal instruments, organisational reform, and lasting institutional change. By the early 2000s, RBI was back into hankering for exchange rate pegging and more capital account restrictions. On debt management, RBI's position shifted to defending turf. Intellectual leadership on RBI reform shifted outside RBI.
By the early 2000s, as the difficulties of exchange rate pegging became visible. RBI's pursuit of exchange rate objectives repeatedly led to the wrong decisions on monetary policy, and gave RBI a bias in favour of preventing the emergence of a capable financial system. When the Agent is given multiple objectives, he is accountable for none. The heart of the problem lay in putting an end to the temporary arrangement: in establishing a clear objective, removing conflicts of interest, and setting up accountability mechanisms.
The earliest sources that I am able to find on the Internet are a newspaper column by Ila Patnaik on 21 August 2006, and the Percy Mistry report (2007). (Please do point me to other such early writings advocating inflation targeting for India). By this time, serious people in Indian macro/finance knew where India needed to go: Inflation target + Open capital account + Floating exchange rate. All the other expert committee reports supported this.
The long run answer
The Indian Financial Code, drafted by Justice Srikrishna's commission, is the full, coherent, internally consistent replacement for the menagerie of Indian financial laws. Once this is enacted, the RBI will have clarity of purpose, and will have sound governance. That is for some unstated date in the future. Does this mean that nothing can be done in the short run?
Some progress in the short run
In 1997, the Finance Secretary, Montek Ahluwalia, and the RBI Governor, C. Rangarajan, signed a `Ways and Means Agreement', which put an end to money creation for deficit financing. This was not in the law, but it was a step forward. The agreement, by and large, delivered.
In July 2014, the Budget speech announced that a monetary policy framework would be put into place. Ordinarily, one would think this is a combination of an inflation target and the machinery of an MPC.
Today, MOF has released a Monetary Policy Framework Agreement signed by RBI & MOF.
It establishes an inflation target. That is a good thing.
Oddly enough, there is no Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The interest rate is decided by one person: the RBI Governor. This will lead to many infirmities. But this is progress, for the period until the IFC is enacted.
Like many of the other things in this year's budget speech, this is halfway there. Ideally, it should have been an inflation target + a properly constructed MPC. There is an odd loss of nerve.
69-Year Old Farmer Coaches K’Taka CM In Tech Use For Agriculture
A 69-year old agriculturalist from North Karnataka stunned Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah with his suggestions of using technology to boost transparency in agricultural claims, at a pre-budget meeting with members of the farming community.
B M Hanasi, the owner of a 7-acre plot in Shirol village, questioned the CM as to why the government wasn’t making use of Google Earth (to gather the coordinates) and WhatsApp (for communication) to accurately assessing the extent of crop damage in the state.
While other farmers 100 odd farmers demanded waiver of loans and desilting of tanks, Hanasi emphasised the use of technology to reduce corruption where officials were misleading farmers to smartly ‘pocket’ the crop damage compensation money.
“Sometimes, officials and agents take pictures of four or five farmers in the same crop-damaged field by making them stand in different corners. Even if you have not grown the damaged crop, they will project that you have grown it and lost it due to a calamity. The money pocketed through fraudulent claims is huge,” Hanasi explained.
Further he stressed on the lack of efficiency in farmers receiving compensation, which currently is sent to the insurance company, which in turn sends it to the deputy commissioner, making it a lengthy procedure.
Hanasi said the latitude and longitude coordinates on Google Earth can help the government accurately map the survey number of fields, while officials equipped with data enabled devices can send photos of the crop to their officials via WhatsApp.
When quizzed about how Hanasi had grown so tech savvy, he attributed his learnings to students he met on the bus from his village to Hubli or Dharwad. They’d use their smartphones to explore their current location and route, while also sharing photos with each other on WhatsApp.
Having engaged in conversations with them as to how the technology worked, he’d experiment using his son’s smartphone at home, and eventually learned to locate places based on their latitude and longitude using Google Maps.
[Article/Image source: Bangalore Mirror]
The post 69-Year Old Farmer Coaches K’Taka CM In Tech Use For Agriculture appeared first on NextBigWhat.
Payment of TDS on Property
The buyer of an immovable property, valued at Rs 50 lakh or more, is required to pay TDS to the government. This article explains what is TDS on property, who pays it, how it is paid. Since when was the rule introduced? How to interpret limit of 50 lakh in case of EMI instalments, multiple buyers, multiple sellers. How TDS is reflected in Form 26AS? Downloading Form 16B?
When was the rule introduced and why?
From 1st June 2013 the rule was introduced for compulsory tax deduction( TDS or withholding tax) by a buyer of an immovable property (other than agricultural land) valuing Rs. 50 lakh or more. This rule also covers the property purchased through home loan. It also has to paid when the buyer buys an under construction and part payment is done. TDS is deducted on Fixed Deposits,Salary etc. To know more about TDS or Tax Deducted at Source one can read our article Basics of Tax Deducted at Source or TDS
It comes under the Sec 194 IA, the Income Tax Act 1961. Section 194-IA is applicable to all including relatives, minor, senior citizens etc. However, if transfer is a gift, then one does not have to pay TDS. The main objective for introducing this rule is to track all the high value real estate transactions which were not being registered. Tax so deducted should be deposited to the Government Account online through any of the authorized bank branches using the e-Tax payment option available at NSDL.
Note: This deduction has nothing to do with the capital gains for the seller.
Who pays TDS?
Buyer has to pay the TDS.
What is the Rate of TDS ?
The rate at which the buyer needs to deduct tax is 1% and it may go up to as high as 20% if the seller does not disclose his PAN. If the property purchased is for Rs. 70 Lakhs then one needs to pay tax on full amount i.e 70 lakh not only on amount more than 50 lakh i.e. Rs. 20 Lakhs. In this example if buyer knows PAN of seller then buyer would need to submit TDS @1% of 70 lakh i.e 7 lakh. Note unlike the Self assessment Tax ,No surcharge and education cess is applicable while deducting tax on sale of property.
What if buyer does not pay TDS?
If TDS is not paid then interest and penalty would be imposed on the buyer. Interest will be charged at the rate of 1% per month or part of the month if one does not deduct tax or deducts less tax from the day tax was supposed to be deducted to the day tax was actually paid. The tax deducted has to be paid within seven days from the end of the month of deduction. Interest will be charged @ 1.5% p.m or part of the month for tax deducted but not paid to the government from the date of deduction till the date of actual payment.
How does the Buyer deposit the TDS to Government?
TDS on Property is to be done online . The tax should be deposited through challan-cum-statement using Form No.26QB. Form No 16B (TDS Certificate) will be issued by the buyer/deductor within fifteen days from the due date of depositing tax. Overview of steps are as follows. These are explained below.
- Provide Information regarding the transaction of property online at TIN website at https://onlineservices.tin.egov-nsdl.com/etaxnew/tdsnontds.jsp. The online form available on the TIN website for providing information on TDS on property is called Form 26QB
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Pay TDS : After successfully providing details of transaction, nine digit alpha numeric Acknowledgement number would be generated. The buyer or deductor now can:
- Either pay TDS online immediately through net banking OR
- Pay TDS within 10 days through net-banking or by visiting any of the authorized Bank branches.
- On successful payment a challan counterfoil will be displayed containing Challan Identification Number CIN, payment details and bank name through which e-payment has been made. This counterfoil is proof of payment being made.
- Generate Form 16B. Form 16B is the TDS certificate issued by the Buyer to the Seller. Buyers are advised to save the Acknowledgement Number for downloading the Form 16B from TRACES website. Usually TDS certificate is available for download from the TRACES website after at least 2 days of deposit of tax amount at the Bank. For buyer TDS paid gets reflected in Form 26AS,usually after 7 days, Check in Part F of the Form 26 AS under Details of Tax Deducted at Source on Sale of Immoveable Property u/s 194(IA)
How does limit of 50 lakh work out for property value – If paid through EMI or multiple buyers or sellers?
Value of property should be more than 50 lakhs for TDS deduction. Threshold limit of Rs 50 lakh (50,00,000) is value of property, not for the number of instalments, the number of buyers or sellers does not matter at all. The value of property is what is specified in the transfer documents, and is not on the basis of a notional fair market value, such as a stamp duty valuation, even though such valuation may be higher. The property value will include payments to be made to the seller such as legal fees,payment for parking spaces etc.
If one is paying instalment or EMI of say Rs 50 thousand a month but property value is 90 lakh then as the property value is more than 50 lakh though EMI is less than 50 lakh the TDS would be required to be deducted for each instalment.
Same is the case for multiple buyers or sellers. If Ram,Shyam sell the jointly owned property of Rs 60 lakh, the selling price for each is 30 lakh. So though individual selling price is less than Rs 50 lakh but the sum value of the transaction exceeds Rs 50 lakh. Thus section 194-IA is applicable and buyer would have to deduct TDS.
What if the Seller of property is NRI i.e property is bought from NRI?
If property is bought from Non-Resident Indian (NRI) then section 194-IA will not be applicable but section 195 will come into action. For NRI the limit of Rs 50 lakh is not applicable. If property is bought from NRI, TDS is required to be deducted at the rate of 20% plus Education Cess on the sale amount. Surcharge at the rate of 10% will be applicable if amount paid exceeds Rs 1 crore.
What is agricultural land?
This law does not apply to agricultural land. Definition of agricultural land is as follows :
- It is situated within jurisdiction of Municipality or Cantonment Board which has a population of not less than 10,000 or
- It is situated in any area within below given distance measured aerially:
| Population of the Municipality | Distance from Municipal limit or Cantonment Board |
|---|---|
| More than 10,000 but does not exceed 1,00,000 | Within 2 kms |
| More than 1,00,000 but does not exceed 10,00,000 | Within 6 kms |
| Exceeding 10,00,000 | Within 8 kms |
How is Form 26QB to be filled for multiple buyers and sellers?
In case of multiple sellers, Form 26QB needs to be filed for each seller separately. Similarly, in case of multiple buyers, each needs to issue Form 26QB separately. Quoting from FAQ on NSDL site
How will transactions of joint parties (more than one buyer/seller) be filed in Form 26QB?
Online statement cum Challan Form/ Form 26QB is to be filled in by each buyer for unique buyer-seller combination for respective share. E.g. in case of one buyer and two sellers, two forms have to be filled in and for two buyers and two seller, four forms have to be filled in for respective property shares.
What information needs to be provided for paying TDS for property in Form 26QB?
Information that needs to be provided for paying TDS for property in Form 26QB is as follows:
- Buyer: Name , PAN number and Complete Address of buyer. Buyer is technically called Transferee.
- Seller : Name , PAN number and Complete Address of seller. Seller is technically called Transferor.
- Property: Address of the property,
- Transaction detail : Date of Agreement, Total Value of Consideration,Payment Type (In Lump Sum or instalment), TDS details.
Can one track the TDS? How does TDS show up in Form 26AS?
As you know Form 26AS tracks the tax paid to government, TDS on salary, advance, self assessment tax. So even TDS on Sale of property shows up in Form 26AS seven days after payment as shown im image below
- For Seller of property TDS is reflect in Part A2 under Details of Tax Deducted at Source on Sale of Immoveable Property u/s 194(IA) [For Seller of Property]
- For Buyer TDS is reflected in Part F under Details of Tax Deducted at Source on Sale of Immoveable Property u/s 194(IA) [For Buyer of Property].
Steps to pay TDS on property
Steps to pay TDS on property online with paying tax online are as follows:
- Go to NSDL-TIN website https://www.tin-nsdl.com
- Click on the option TDS on Sale of Property. It will open Form 26QB
- Fill the details as required in Form 26QB
- Then click on PROCEED button. PAN Details will be validiated.
- After validation of PAN, verify the details entered by you and click Confirm.
- After confirming, select the payment method
- If you paying immediate through netbanking, click the option for submitting it to the Bank and then login to the net-banking site with your user ID & password and enter the payment details.
- If you cannot pay online, an online receipt for Form 26QB with a unique Acknowledgment Number is generated which is valid for 10 days after generation. You can take this toone of the authorized banks along with your cheque. The bank will proceed with the online payment and generate your challan.
- On Successful payment, Challan will be generated containing Challan Identification Number (CIN) payment details and bank name through which e-payment has been made. The Challan is like a receipt, a proof of payment made.
- Buyer should check Form 26AS after 7 days. The TDS paid should be reflected there as discussed above.
- After few days, Buyer can download Form 16B from TRACES from the TRACES the website of Centralized Processing Cell of TDS (CPC-TDS) .Login to the TRACES website, and Click on DOWNLOADS tab. In the dropdown menu click on Requested Downloads. If no application has been made buyer will be asked to make a request for download, here fill in the Acknowledgment Number (Nine Digit Number) which is reflected on Form 26AS in Part F as mentioned above. Once this done, buyer will be able to view the status of his application, which generates an Application Request Number. Our article TDS, Form 26AS and TRACES explains TDS and Form 26AS in detail.
Within a couple of hours, the application gets processed and buyer will be able to view Form 16B by entering the request number which he has have obtained. He can take a printout of the same for his records as well as for handing over to the seller of the property. Download the .zip file. The password to open the .zip file is Date of Birth of Buyer/ Deductor (the format is DDMMYYYY). The form will be inside the .zip file as a pdf.
- Buyer will be responsible to give the certificate of TDS in Form 16B to the seller within 15 days from the due date of submission of the Challan and the seller thus will be able to claim the credit for such TDS against his tax liability.
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The Taylor rule conundrum
"For the moment, the broadly unanticipated behavior of world bond markets remains a conundrum. Bond price movements may be a short-term aberration, but it will be some time before we are able to better judge the forces underlying recent experience."
A month later, Ben Bernanke, proposed the idea of a global saving glut as the main reason for low long-term real interest rates. In a world where capital markets are global, interest are determined by global forces and not by domestic macroeconomic conditions.
This behavior is also very much related to the discussion around "global liquidity" and the potential influence of monetary policy in the US on monetary policy conditions in emerging markets. The difference is that in this case we are talking about short-term rates where we typically expect more control by the central bank and a stronger correlation domestic conditions.
To illustrate this point let me use a slide from a presentation two days ago by Hyun Song Shin (BIS) at the Bank of England discussing the future agenda of central banks. The slide includes the following chart (click on it for a larger image).
The chart shows the behavior of emerging markets central bank interest rates in comparison with a standard Taylor rule. The chart shows that since 2000, central banks have set interest rates significantly below the level implied by the Taylor rule (the same behavior is also true among advanced economies although not to the same extent). If one looks carefully at the scale, interest rates are 6 to 8 percentage points lower than those implied by a Taylor rule. This would imply an incredibly expansionary monetary policy. The chart comes from a paper by researchers at BIS (Hofmann and Bogdanov) who on their discussion of this result they argue that
"This finding suggests that monetary policy has probably been systematically accommodative for most of the past decade. The deviation may, however, in part also reflect lower levels of equilibrium real interest rates that might introduce an upward bias in the traditional Taylor rule."
Monetary policy can be too accommodative when central banks follow US interest rates to avoid appreciations of their currencies. But if monetary policy was that accommodative for more than a decade we should have seen increasing inflation rates during those years. That was not what we saw, inflation rates remain stable (and even decreasing) in most of these markets. Today, where interest rates remain very low compared to those implied by the Taylor rule, we talk about global deflation, not global inflation.
So it must be that the fundamental cause must be related to lower levels of equilibrium real interest rates and these are determined by global forces (otherwise why would all countries behave in the same way). Interestingly, the deviations from the Taylor rule coincide with the period where global imbalances started.
So here is yet another interest rate conundrum, this time related to short-term interest rates. How much do central banks control short-term rates in a world where capital markets are global? How relevant is a Taylor-rule approach to analyze the appropriateness of central bank interest rates?
Antonio Fatás







