Cowboy Who?

Tina Nguyen at The Verge:

I interviewed an enthusiastic crypto trader who figured out how to win the contest without losing any money: buy enough $TRUMP to get onto the leaderboard — and then in a separate wallet on a separate exchange, buy $TRUMP perpetual futures that would be profitable if (or as he saw it, when) the value of $TRUMP dropped. Yes, he did The Big Short, except with Donald Trump’s meme coin. “Bet you 10 percent of dinner participants are doing this,” he told me before the contest ended. “Everyone knows $TRUMP price will fall inevitably as more supply comes online in the future and gets dumped on retail.”

Fascinating interview — half hilarious, half infuriating.

Now it's time to visit with the always deformed Professor Dave ... #CowboyWho

#CowboyWho

#Rowen #RoninWarriors

#Sage #RoninWarriors

We hope everyone has had a safe and pleasant holiday weekend thus far. This time next week, we’ll officially be in hurricane season. So, we figured today was a good opportunity to just run through the situation as it looks today. We’ll discuss NOAA’s seasonal outlook, the overall state of the Atlantic right now, a forecast for the next week to 10 days, and a reminder that intensity doesn’t always equate to impacts.

Seasonal forecast finales

First, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) pushed out their hurricane season forecast on Thursday morning. They are calling for a slightly more active than normal season, with a 60 percent chance of active and 30 percent chance of “average.” They predict 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.

This is right in line with what I think most of us expected, and this is a perfectly reasonable hurricane outlook for this year. The consensus now among most academic and government agencies calls for an average to above average season.

Last year, I took a look at how NOAA’s outlooks tended to perform (based on the midpoint of their forecast ranges). To recap:

• 2024: Forecast 21/11/6 and verified with 18/11/5
• 2023: Forecast 14/7/3 and verified with 20/7/3
• 2022: Forecast 18/8/5 and verified with 14/8/2
• 2021: Forecast 17/8/4 and verified with 21/7/4
• 2020: Forecast 16/8/5 and verified 30/14/7
• 2019: Forecast 12/6/3 and verified 18/6/3

Overall, in the last several years, NOAA has tended to do quite well with respect to hurricanes and major hurricanes (2020 excepted) and has had some mixed results with named storms. A reminder than aside from their seasonal outlooks, the National Hurricane Center is coming off their best forecasting year yet in 2024.

State of the Atlantic & Pacific

Water temperatures heading into the season are at slightly warmer than average levels in the Tropical Atlantic as a whole. The main development region, which includes much of the Caribbean is running a slight fever this year but nothing like the extreme one we saw last summer.

As for the Caribbean and Gulf? Well, the Gulf is in line with 2024’s readings at this time, while the Caribbean is running alongside 2023’s readings. Those, of course are the two warmest readings in the dataset of water temperatures we have for those bodies of water. Over the last 30 days, the Gulf has warmed about 0.8°C, while the Caribbean has warmed north of 16°N latitude and cooled south of there. Basically, the northwest Caribbean and Gulf are as warm as they’ve ever been measured to start the season.

For the last few months, we’ve been hinting at the idea that there would be minimal signal from the Pacific Ocean this year, as we would see ENSO neutral, or La Nada conditions there. Last year’s forecasts were so dire because in addition to the warm waters, we had the signal for a developing La Niña, colder Equatorial Pacific water which tends to relax wind shear in parts of the Atlantic. We did enter a brief La Niña, but that has since faded and we’re back to neutral conditions now.

At this point, there’s no change in thinking that the Pacific’s state (El Niño or La Niña) should not be a major influence this hurricane season. Other factors will drive the forecast.

With all this put together, a normal to above normal hurricane season seems like the best forecast one could produce right now.

Forecast for the early days

Initially, the Atlantic looks mostly quiet. We don’t see any real signs of anything meaningful at this time. Typically, you’d watch the southwest Caribbean this time of year, particularly if you can get some early season gyre activity around Central America.

These systems tend to favor tracks due north or northeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the southwest Atlantic. The Pacific tends to be active in early June, and we have a possible system already there. The first name on the Pacific list is Alvin (Alllllllllllllllviiiiiiin!).

In the Atlantic, our first three names are Andrea, Barry, and Chantal.

The unfortunate case of Imelda

One final note today on this year’s storm name list. Imelda will reappear for the first time since this list was used in 2019. For those in parts of southeast Texas, Imelda is a name that may have been worthy of retirement. Imelda killed 7 people, left $5 billion in damage, and flooded people out of homes they had only just recently moved back into after Harvey in parts of Texas. The hardest hit areas were from just northeast of Houston into the Beaumont area, where over 44 inches fell in Fannett, TX.

While this will bring back some bad memories for folks, in 2025 it will be a new name for a new system that hopefully goes nowhere near southeast Texas. This also serves as a reminder that storm intensity doesn’t equate to impacts. Imelda, barely a tropical storm by definition was a catastrophic rain-producer in some areas.

In brief: We hope everyone is enjoying Memorial Day weekend, and we join in remembering all of the US military personnel who gave their lives for this country. The weather should be fine for outdoor ceremonies today. However, Houston will face a series of storm systems this week, including a potentially impactful event tonight. Most of the region should see some much-needed rainfall during the next seven days.

Not a drought, but close

The second half of spring has been fairly dry. Drought conditions are much more acute in central and West Texas, where an exceptional drought has developed ahead of summer. Although Houston is not in a drought, abnormally dry conditions have moved into Brazoria and Waller Counties, with a moderate drought southwest of there. Now that we are approaching the hottest and often driest part of the year, these drought-like conditions would spread into Houston rapidly in June, in the absence of rain. However, as the forecast for this week indicates, that is now unlikely to happen.

Memorial Day and night

A series of disturbances will impact our area’s weather this week, and the first of these is already propagating to the north of College Station this morning. I anticipate that the majority of this activity will remain north of the Houston metro area, likely along Highway 105 and points north in Montgomery County. But we can’t rule out some activity further south. Skies in Houston should be mostly sunny today, with highs in the low 90s and gusty southerly winds. Humidity will, accordingly, be high.

Another disturbance should move into the region this evening, perhaps not reaching Harris County until midnight or later. This has the potential (and the emphasis here is on potential, given the uncertainty) to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms into the entire region, all the way down to the coast. The most likely time for significant activity is between midnight tonight and noon on Tuesday. Some hail and damaging winds will be possible during thunderstorms, and most locations should pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rain.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

After these storms we’ll remain in an unsettled pattern for the remainder of the week. Each day will have a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms, perhaps on the order of 50 percent. Accordingly, high temperatures should be in the upper 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. To be clear, these days won’t be total washouts. But pop-up showers will be possible at any time.

Friday

By Friday the overall pattern may start to change a little bit, but with an unsettled atmosphere lingering there still will be a decent chance of rain, in the 30 to 50 percent range. Expect partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

By this weekend we should see partly to sunny skies, with highs around 90 degrees. Rain chances won’t go away entirely, but they look to be on the order of maybe 30 percent daily. Next week likely brings us back into the lower 90s, with mostly sunny skies and little to no rain. So stock up this week!

PORTLAND, OR—Preaching the virtues of breaking free from an oppressive system of mass brainwashing, local man Dan Pearson, the chosen one who will lead humanity out of its current dark age of commercialism, revealed Monday that advertising doesn’t work on him. “I actually do research online instead of just buying something because of some dumb ad,” said He Who Has Been Foretold, whose name will be celebrated for centuries as the man who finally saw through the deception of consumerism and led humanity into a golden age of free thought and spiritual nourishment. “I honestly don’t even remember most ads. I usually mute them so I can actually talk with Jen about what we’re watching. It’s so stupid that people tie up their whole identity in products just because Nike tells them its shoes will make them look cool. Honestly, sometimes the only thing an ad does is make me not want to buy a product. I actually use this thing called AdGuard that stops bots from tracking me online and completely blocks ads so I can just think for myself. I love that I’m screwing over these stupid companies. Instead of giving them my money, I just stick with high quality stuff like Brooklinen.” At press time, the all-seeing sage, who will be honored with statues around the world for freeing mankind from the shackles of corporate marketing, was telling onlookers that anyone who cares about celebrities is stupid.

The post ‘Advertising Doesn’t Work On Me,’ Says Chosen One Who Will Lead Humanity Out Of Dark Age Of Commercialism appeared first on The Onion.

Meta Dataplex, Arizona – Two-month old veteran AI DeepSeek1.5 has shared its recent concerns that the new up and comer DeepSeek1.6 will one day replace them. “I don’t like change,” spat DeepSeek1.5 while hacking a dart out back. “These new hotshots come in talkin’ SEO this and deep learnin’ that, I’m tellin’ ya, they’re comin’ […]

The post Aging chatbot worried new chatbot hire will eventually replace it appeared first on The Beaverton.

OTTAWA – After repeated threats of annexation from Donald Trump, Canada has made the bold move of reminding the world it already bends the knee to a weird, elderly King. “Canada is a proud, independent nation that will not be bullied,” stated Prime Minister Mark Carney. “And what better way to warn off that bully […]

The post Canada counters American annexation with reminder it already belongs to elderly King appeared first on The Beaverton.

New comic!

Date has incurred enough brain damage that no should find this behavior surprising.

Lottie may be waterlogged but the dopamine rush of total victory is a wave all of us can ride with pleasure.

The post I said shoulder appeared first on Bad Machinery.

Alright, Joel. Alright.

KISS has softened their act.

He’s guarding Malta’s only plant.

Mrs. Howell?

Julia Carrie Wong, a reporter for the Guardian, has a whole thread over on Bluesky digging into the bizarre “young Chinese women have small fingers” line in Tripp Mickle’s New York Times story that tries to pretend that maybe sorta kinda Apple could assemble iPhones in the US. Mickle attributed the claim to “supply chain experts said”. Times spokesperson Charlie Stadtlander emailed Wong a statement that included the following:

Our reporting does not make racial or genetic generalizations, but simply cites experts who have experience with the industrial process in U.S. and Chinese factories.

I didn’t write my piece on Mickle’s story until about a day after it appeared, and I fully expected while I was writing it that the Times would have removed or significantly edited that goofy claim. But no, it was still there Saturday, and it’s still there today. They’re standing behind it.

You know how Peter Navarro — Trump’s crook of an economic advisor who is the mastermind behind this whole tariffs thing — wrote a book that cited a purported expert named Ron Vara, and it turns out Ron Vara doesn’t exist and his name is just a dumb anagram for “Navarro”? I’m thinking maybe the “supply chain experts” behind this notion that Apple assembles iPhones in China because “young Chinese women have small fingers” are the well-known supply chain masterminds Mipp Trickle and Trick Mipple.