I know I know, we’ve heard it all before. Just before the launch of the Nintendo DS and the Nintendo Wii, or even the GameCube, journalists the world over were all but predicting the demise of gaming’s biggest juggernaut. So yet another writer wading in to state his case for why Nintendo's latest piece of hardware faces an uphill struggle is hardly all that original or surprising.
The point of this article, however, is not to say of infer in any way that the Nintendo Switch will be Nintendo's last console, or that it will put Nintendo out of the hardware business altogether, rather it’s to outline my reasoning for why I have low sales expectations for the Switch.
The Future is Portable
Today's market (and almost certainly tomorrow's) wants portability: there is an entire generation of kids and teens coming of age that has lived exclusively with portable hardware, never needing or even wanting a laptop or home console. Japan is the most extreme case of this; a culture so attuned to the daily commute and technological gadgetry, most Japanese consumers don’t have the time to sit in front of a TV. This, and the fact that they feel the mobile phone does almost everything that a console can do, has resulted in a huge decline in the home console market - a market which (arguably) created the industry we know and love today.
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This Japanese culture of portability has allowed the dedicated handheld console market to remain relatively strong, despite losing market share in its own right.
So, looking at the current market as a whole and the future trend, you can fully understand the reasoning behind a console that also doubles up as a portable of sorts. The portability of the Nintendo Switch serves the rising market of gamers on the go but also seeks to cater to the traditional gaming base that still enjoys playing at home.
The problem, I would argue, is that you’re straddling two very different markets in an attempt to capture what could be an enormous demographic, and in doing so Nintendo's latest platform could end up being the jack of all trades and master of none.
Key Differences
The following section is going to be quite reductive, not out of malice, but because I want to get to the heart of the reality behind making different form factor platforms.
The comparison between home consoles and portable handhelds has always been a bit like comparing apples with oranges, but for the purposes of explaining why I think the Nintendo Switch will struggle to sell well it’s worth noting the key pros and cons of each type of gaming system, and why both exist in the first place.
On the surface, you may not think there’s much of a difference between the two: as long as they both play games, what does it matter? But when you start working with smaller sizes, heat and power starts becoming a concern, so much so that it fundamentally changes the games you can make, and the amount of time a player can spend playing your game.
It’s that exact reason why you’ll find handhelds always lagging behind in the graphical department: sacrifices have to be made in order to achieve portability. This isn’t inherently a bad thing; restrictions breed creativity, pushing developers to come up with new and innovative ways to display what they would like, all while making the game as compelling as possible.
Then there’s the issue of the environment you play a game within. With a home console, you can segregate yourself from the outside world, concentrating entirely on the game at hand to give yourself cinematic immersion, a feeling that is hard to break or indeed beat. Handheld devices are often played on the bus, the train, in the park, or just generally when you're out and about. In short, handhelds are oftentimes used in environments where you cannot focus entirely on the game at hand, and this forces developers to invent new and interesting gameplay techniques to take advantage of a player's limited time. There are several reasons for Candy Crush Saga's success, but a key one is that its pick up and play mentality helps to kill time when you have a few minutes to spare.
Let's briefly define the different platform types:
Home Console
A home console is a system which enables high fidelity games and other forms of media to be played on a pre-existing TV. Home Consoles should give consumers the latest graphical and gameplay advances, all from the comfort of their own home.
Portable Console
A portable console is a system which allows users to play their games anywhere they please. Limitations are usually accepted by the consumer, due to the consoles size and portability outweighing the need for the latest in graphical prowess.
This has been true since the dawn of gaming. Just take a look at the specs from a couple of generations of platforms below to see how a portable console is always an order of magnitude less powerful than a home console from the same era:
Now, with all that in mind, let’s take a look at the Nintendo Switch and its potential pitfalls.
A Semi-Portable Platform
Nintendo has created the Switch to, primarily, act as a home console - a somewhat portable one but at heart a home console nonetheless.
Why only somewhat portable? Well, for one, the console’s battery life is terrible. Portables sacrifice visual fidelity because they're portable; restrictions are necessary to allow the battery to last a decently long period of time. Weighing in at a meagre three hours of playtime for any visually appealing game, the Nintendo Switch struggles to make its case as a truly portable platform. Anyone that wants to play the console out and about will constantly have to fret about battery life and reserve it for short trips at best. The fact that it also takes three hours to charge the device once drained speaks volumes to Nintendo’s true intent: you can move it about, but don’t expect to do any serious gaming on it in its portable form.
The reason it only has three hours of battery life? Because Nintendo used relatively powerful mobile hardware, while at the same time keeping the unit as small as possible, resulting in a smaller battery and a power consuming CPU/GPU. This is why I call it a semi-portable platform, because the device itself is intended to stay in its dock most of the time.
The Switch is trying to be too many things to too many people, resulting in a device that sits slightly awkwardly in both the home console market and the portable one. It’s too weak and specific to dominate the living room, but too powerful to be a practical portable platform.
Déjà vu
Straddling two very different markets in order to capture both is not new, even in the gaming industry. Cast your mind back and you may remember that Microsoft’s Xbox One set out to bridge the gap between the traditional multimedia and the gaming market, resulting in a console that underperformed compared to its main competitor as a gaming device, and it didn’t do much when it came to TV either.
Sony's PlayStation Vita also attempted to tread a similar line to the Switch many years ago, albeit from the other side of the fence. It's generally considered to be a failure. Don’t get me wrong, the Vita is easily one of my favourite handhelds of all time, but its lackluster sales in the west demonstrate the uphill struggle a portable platform aiming to create immersive, cinematic experiences faces. Put bluntly, it didn’t result in a winning formula.
But Nintendo's plan is better thought through, right? The potential to capture two different but related markets all centred around one platform is enough of an enticement for the company to attempt what its competitors failed abysmally to do, and Nintendo's handheld expertise and success gives it a better chance of success than Sony's half-hearted attempts to convert console gamers to the handheld market.
I've illustrated how Nintendo expects its approach to play out in a crudely drawn Venn diagram below:
But what they’ve actually created will, in my opinion, result in the following:
There will be a small subset of customers from the home console market that want portability at the cost of graphical fidelity, and a small subset from the portable console market that want better graphics at the cost of battery life.
In theory, Nintendo’s plan to unify both markets it clever, the problem is neither are likely to be wholly satisfied by the offering outside of Nintendo's dedicated fan base.
The Price
And that's all without mentioning the elephant in the room: the Nintendo Switch’s price.
$299.99/£279.99
In isolation, this doesn’t look too bad. Most home consoles release at a slightly higher price and most portables are slightly cheaper. But it doesn't enter the market in a vacuum, especially on the home console front. Here are some of the best deals currently on offer in the UK for the PS4 and Xbox One:
- PlayStation 4 Slim with Horizon: Zero Dawn and an extra controller: £229.99
- Xbox One S with Battlefield 1 and a free game of your choice: £199.85
These consoles are more powerful than the Switch, cheaper, and come with at least one of the most popular releases available on the respective platforms. They are also multimedia systems, capable of handling most of your visual needs, from Netflix to YouTube.
For £279.99 for the Switch you’re only getting the console itself; no games, no extra controllers, nothing. Want a game as well? Expect to pay an additional £35-60 at launch depending on which title you select from, outside of Zelda, a rather meagre line up.
So as I said above, in isolation the Switch’s price isn’t that bad, the issue comes from the fact that Nintendo is releasing the console as if there’s currently no competition in the marketplace, when really this is the most competitive games consoles have been in quite some time.
It’s also worth noting the bang to buck ratio. I know as well as the next guy that the average consumer doesn’t know the difference between one processor and the next, but when parting with money even the most technophobic of customers want the best bang for their buck. For most this doesn't translate into specs, but rather the games available and how much added value they’re getting when purchasing a system.
On both fronts the Switch struggles - it is not the most powerful home console and so the clock is already running against it, the game library is very limited, and it has even more limited multimedia capabilities. When compared to its competitors in the home console market alone, the Switch will lose out most of the time.
As a portable console it ironically holds up better, providing some of the best graphics and gameplay on the market and facing up against dedicated portables that are clearly on the way out. But even here there's an elephant in the room (or pocket, as it were): mobile phones.
So out of the gate the Switch is compromised. On price, performance, and game selection, it’s fighting an uphill struggle against the rest of the market, and that’s without discussing the mobile phone factor.
Compromises
From the battery life, to its graphical capabilities, to the inability to charge and stand the device at the same time, the Switch is an exercise in compromise. Gamers looking for a great home console are going to lament its graphical fidelity and portable gamers are going to struggle to use it for that purpose.
The omens are not that great on the third party support front either. Engines have been tooled and reworked for the capabilities of the Xbox One and PS4 over these last few years, so to have a new console come along which is still the equivalent power of hardware from a decade ago isn’t going to help when porting games. We've seen time and time again that Nintendo struggles to attract committed third party home console support, even when its platform is the market leader. Expect a rash of early support attempting to capitalise on initial enthusiasm that quickly dwindles to a mere trickle, much like it did with the WiiU.
The Nintendo Switch also has compromises where none needed to be. Had Nintendo waited a few more months for a new Nvidia Tegra processor, for example, the battery issues wouldn’t be anywhere near as severe as they are today. Maybe this will be addressed in the next few years - working with mobile SKUs that iterate yearly, for examples, could allow Nintendo to release a new, longer-lasting and more powerful Switch.
Final Thoughts & Predictions
I’m looking forward to receiving my Nintendo Switch sometime soon (whenever Royal Mail finally delivers it!) and putting it through its paces, but I'm concerned that Nintendo is making the same mistakes its competitors have made before it, and even repeating some of their missteps with the WiiU. It's in a stronger position to succeed than its immediate predecessor - indeed I see the Switch outselling the WiiU - but in the long run I don't see it coming close to the success of the 3DS or PS4.
Here are my predictions for the Switch over the coming years:
- The Nintendo Switch will sell more than the WiiU (10+ million units)
- But it will not sell more than 25 million units.
- At $299.99/£279.99, the Switch won’t sell well beyond launch, resulting in a price drop within its first full year on the market.

A graduate in Computing which was centered around Gaming, Dan is a games developer and writer. His first game, Twixel, was released for iOS, Android, PC and Mac in 2015, with the Steam release coming November 18th, 2016. A lover of all things games, Dan has been writing for VGChartz.com for over 2 years, attending conferences and interviewing developers to get the best content for VGChartz readers. His favourite games include Asura's Wrath, S.T.A.L.K.E.R and the Halo Series. Dan can be followed on Twitter at: @Caesoose
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