Oakfairy

[reddit] [h/t: pleatedjeans]

Sigh. Here we go again.

The Daily Mail and Mail Online are to scientific accuracy what a sledgehammer is to an egg. Especially when it comes to global warming.

David Rose is oftentimes the wielder of that sledgehammer. He’s written error-laden climate articles in the past, like saying that global warming has stopped (no, it hasn’t), that the world is cooling (no, it really really isn’t), and that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had to hold a crisis meeting because Rose’s articles have caused such a fuss (that meeting never happened, which Rose had been told several times, but he still made the claim). Other examples abound.

This time, in Sunday’s Mail Online he writes that Arctic sea ice, which hit a major record low in 2012, “has expanded for the second year in succession.”

This claim is a humdinger, and typical denial double-speak. It’s technically true, but also really wrong. It’s like examining someone who has a 106° fever and saying it’s really made their skin glow. But what do you expect from an article that has this breathless headline:

Myth of arctic meltdown: Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometres MORE than 2 years ago...despite Al Gore's prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now

“Myth of arctic meltdown” is enough to tell you just how slanted and wrong the conclusions of this article will be … and the inclusion of Al Gore’s name brings it home. Mentioning Gore is at best a distraction, red meat to the deniers. Gore isn’t a climate scientist, and as we well know actual climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that the world is warming. One of the outcomes of this is the decline of Arctic sea ice.

Briefly: Arctic sea ice reaches a minimum in late September every year. The overall trend for the amount of ice at that time is decreasing; in other words, there is less ice all the time. Some years there is more than others, some less. But the trend is down, down, down.

In 2012, a mix of unusual causes created conditions where the minimum reached a record low, far below normal. The next year, in 2013, the ice didn’t reach quite so low a minimum extent, and this year looks very much the same as 2013. But saying the ice is “recovering” is, to put it delicately, what comes out the south end of a north-facing bull. You can’t compare two years with a record low the year before that was due to unusual circumstances; you have to look at the average over time.

Of course, if you do, your claims that global warming isn’t real melt away.

I’m happy to provide that information. Here’s the Arctic ice extent graphed by the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

The black line is the average for 1981–2010. The gray region shows the ±2 standard deviation extent for that average; statistically speaking it’s an expected range of extent (it’s actually more subtle than that, but that’s enough to understand what’s going on here). The dashed line shows the 2012 ice extent, and is clearly very low, well outside the expected range. The brown line is 2013, and the light green line is this year, 2014, up to late August. Notice 2014 follows the year before pretty closely.

Note also they are well below average, near the bottom of the expected range. If you look at any recent year’s ice it’s below average; you have to go back to 2001 to find an ice extent near the average.

So the claim that the ice is “recovering” is made based on the wrong comparison. Compare the past two years to the overall trend and they fit in pretty well with overall decline.

Also, that “recovery” claim cannot be made with only two data points. Two years is not a trend. There have been many times ice has gone up over a year or two in the Arctic, only to drop once again over the long run.

Here’s the graph showing this:

That’s also from NSIDC, and it shows the ice extent for August of every year from 1979 to 2013. Yes, in 2013 it goes up, but note: 1) There are several times it jumps up for a year or so, but 2) the overall trend is down. Looking at two data points in a row and ignoring everything else is incredibly misleading at best. David Appell at Quark Soup shows this very clearly as well.

There’s plenty more to debunk about Rose’s article, but this shows that his central premise is dead wrong. You absolutely cannot say Arctic ice is recovering, and in fact everything we know—like rising temperatures, and how the Arctic is more sensitive to warming than the rest of the world on average, and the obvious long-term trend—is that we are still losing Arctic sea ice at an alarming rate.

And don’t believe the tired malarkey you might hear about Antarctic sea ice increasing; that has nothing to do with any of this, and is hugely offset by the tremendous land ice loss every year anyway.

What makes this even more aggravating is that there’s nothing new here. This claim of Arctic ice recovering was made last year, and it was just as wrong then as it is now. It’s shameful. Global warming is real, it’s a huge problem, and it’s our own damn fault. There’s still time to fix this, though that breathing room is getting slimmer all the time … and it’s not helping when media give air to deniers.

Correction, Sept. 1, 2014: In the original version explaining the first graph, I wrote "temperature" when I meant "extent." My apologies for any confusion.

[video] [h/t: sizvideos]

pleatedjeans:

@rolldiggity

Redditor UranusExplorer apparently had a customer support chat with Thor himself on Amazon.com recently, and this screenshot shows the entire thing. You’re welcome.

[Via LS]

Creative kid. More creative mom. [reddit]

I took my cat on his first walk yesterday

[video]

[video]

MOTHER OF PEARL!

[Jonathon Johnston]

[video]

sobermotherfuckinggamzee:

"I’m gonna do it. I’m gonna kill the human."

"BILLY NO"

Tillsammans med Inet ger vi er läsare chansen att vinna Sonys phablet Xperia Z Ultra eller smartklockan Sony SmartWatch 2. För att delta i tävlingen vill vi att ni skickar in en bild på er nuvarande telefon, som kanske sett bättre dagar, och skriver en motivering för hur en smartklocka hjälpt dig i vardagen

I vår recension av Xperia Z Ultra kunde vi konstatera att Sony lyckats göra en värdig utmanare till Samsungs Galaxy Note-serie. Missa inte heller vårt test av Sonys SmartWatch 2. 

Regler

I bilden på telefonen skall Inets logo eller hemsida synas tillsammans med en handskriven lapp med datumet för när bilden tagits. Detta för att Googlade bilder inte skall kunna användas.

1:a pris: Sony Xperia Ultra Z (svart)

2:a pris: Sony Smart Watch 2

Tävlingen avslutas 7:e september 2014. Vinnarna utses av Inet och kommer att kontaktas per e-post senast 8:e september 2014. Lycka till!

Delta

Inlägget Vinn en ny mobil eller smartklocka från Sony med datorbutiken Inet [Tävling] dök först upp på Swedroid.

This is the second time he’s jumped onto the counter, unable to get down [reddit]

A penguin is afraid to jump in the water

[video] [h/t: lawebloca]

‘They have learned that the lady at the ferry ticket booth occasionally has treats’ [reddit]

[vine] [h/t: sizvideos]

Do you keep your butter in the refrigerator? You do? Stop it. Stop it right this second. You're ruining your butter experience and making your toast taste like failure. Let me tell you why.

Read more...

HUMAN

HUMAN

DO SOMETHING

FOR GODS SAKE HELP

We created Zombies, Run! to make running more exciting. Running is great, but it’s not the only way to keep fit. Bodyweight exercises like push-ups, jumping jacks, and squats are also essential for improving your health.

Except, like running, they can be super boring. Even the 7 Minute Workout becomes dull after a week — which is why we made Superhero Workout, a new game for iPhone and iPad.
 

Heroes Aren’t Born. They’re Trained.

In Superhero Workout, you’re pilot of the prototype AEGIS One battlesuit, Earth’s last line of defence against alien invaders. With our motion-tracking technology, your punches become plasma blasts and your abdominal crunches power your suit’s reactor!

Using your device’s front-facing camera, we can track every rep and every calorie of every exercise, allowing us to make a truly interactive workout game perfect for beginners and veterans alike.

20 Epic Missions

You’re the Earth’s last line of defence, fighting the aliens across land, sea, air, and outer space. Lead writer Matt Wieteska is the man behind Zombies, Run! fan favourite Radio Abel, and he brings his trademark humour and heart to the story and characters of Superhero Workout.

12 Rapid Workouts

We’ve taken the classic “7 Minute Workout” formula and supercharged it with bonus fast workouts that focus on different parts of your body. For the adventurous, there’s our Battle Workout mode – a dynamic, motion-controlled endless battle against aliens!

42 Bodyweight Exercises

Push ups and jumping jacks are great, but they can get boring. We’ve added mountain climbers, power squats, punches and more – and even better, none of them require any weights or special equipment!

Apple TV Support

Superhero Workout is optimised for Apple TV, so you can battle on a big screen while your device keeps track of the action.

You can grab Superhero Workout right now from the iTunes App Store for $4.99 (£2.99)!

More details are on the Superhero Workout website. You can also follow Superhero Workout on Twitter and Facebook.

P.S. Superhero Workout will be coming to Android devices this Fall!

Because sometimes there’s just nothing you can say and only a cookie will console you.

[Full recipe available at JennRecipes. Check out her site Home Geekonomics as well.]

chrisdaps:

I’m still really upset and angry. He did it once, the camera happened to be on him, he did it once and I think it’s the funniest joke that’s ever been on our show. - Michael Schur (x)

Love this.