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01 Mar 20:51

You just got vaccinated: Here’s what you’ll need for a vaccine passport

by Victoria M. Walker

Nearly 120 million Americans have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

If you’re one of the millions who has been vaccinated, you’re probably thinking, “now what?” — especially if you’re itching to hit the road.

Travelers may need to use vaccine passports to enter certain countries, take certain cruises and tours or be exempt from strict testing and quarantine requirements. They will be a key part of the travel experience moving forward. But to use a vaccine passport, what types of documentation will you need?

We’re not yet close to a standardized system, but several apps and platforms have either been rolled out or are in development. In the meantime, here are the steps you should take after getting vaccinated so you can use a digital health passport when you’re ready to travel. 

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Test results and vaccine records

(Photo by Marko Geber/Getty Images)

If you’re in the United States, you’ll often receive a physical paper card — called the COVID-19 Vaccination Record Card — from the CDC after being vaccinated. This card includes medical information about the vaccine you received, the date of vaccination and where you were vaccinated. 

A vaccine passport app will host verified COVID-19 vaccine information similar to what you’d see on your card. These apps will also store information about recent COVID-19 test results. Some of the publicly available vaccine passports include:

  • Clear Health Pass: Used to verify negative tests required at some sports arenas and approve tourists for quarantine-free travel to Hawaii.
  • CommonPass: Travelers on select United Airlines and Lufthansa flights from Frankfurt to the U.S., Hawaiian Airlines and United flights to Hawaii and JetBlue flights to Aruba can use the CommonPass app.
  • IATA Travel Pass: Partnering with 30 airlines worldwide, including ANA, Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airways and Virgin Atlantic.
  • IBM Digital Health Pass: New York partnered with IBM to create the Excelsior Pass. A New Yorker can use the Excelsior Pass if he or she has been fully vaccinated in New York state and it’s been 14 days or longer since the final shot; had a negative PCR test administered in New York within three days; or took a negative antigen test in New York in the last six hours.
  • VeriFLY: Can be used on select American Airlines, British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Japan Airlines flights to fly into the U.S. from abroad and to several international destinations.
  • V-Health: Its technology is already being included in a platform called HELIIX Health Pass, which has been introduced in Las Vegas to reopen the city.

Import and verify your information

(Image courtesy Clear)

Several digital health passport providers say getting your vaccine status or negative test results onto their apps will be simple. For IATA’s Travel Pass, verification would include taking a photo of your proof of vaccination “to make sure that the content is accurate,” a rep told TPG earlier this year. There are real concerns in the travel and technology communities that some travelers might try to fake negative coronavirus results or COVID-19 vaccines.

IATA has partnered with over a dozen airlines, including Singapore Airlines, Copa Airlines and Qantas. Copa, for instance, is using IATA’s software to store and verify travelers’ negative COVID-19 test results, which is a requirement to enter Panama.

Travel Pass has four features, IATA says.

The first is a global registry of health requirements, which would allow travelers to locate testing and vaccination requirements at their destination. The tool also has a registry of testing and vaccination centers. The “Lab App” allows labs and test centers authorized by IATA to share test and vaccination certificates with passengers. Finally, its contactless Travel App allows travelers to create a “digital passport” with verified testing and vaccination information.

New York State has its own vaccine passport, dubbed the Excelsior Pass. New Yorkers can use the Excelsior Pass if they have been fully vaccinated in New York state and it’s been 14 days or longer since the final shot. They can also use the pass if they had a negative PCR test administered in New York within three days, or took a negative antigen test in New York in the last six hours. The Excelsior Pass is largely expected to be used to reopen large-scale events in New York, such as sporting events and concerts.

Entire countries, such as Iceland, are rolling out vaccine requirements that would allow any traveler who can prove they’ve been vaccinated to skip quarantine. 

The European Union’s upcoming Digital Green Certificate will allow citizens of EU member states to move freely around their own country and travel abroad to other countries within the EU.

The Green Certificate will be available for free in digital (with QR code) or paper format. Non-EU member states, such as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, will also use the Green Certificate — but not the United Kingdom. EU countries will be able to link their nations’ vaccine records to a central database, according to Reuters. The Green Certificate — which the EU says is not a vaccine passport — is expected to be fully rolled out in all member states in June.

Keep your vaccine card safe

(Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)

This should go without saying, but you don’t want to lose your vaccination card. 

“Treat it like you would treat your driver’s license or your credit cards or your passport, anything that is high value,” said Steve Swasey, the vice president of communications at Healthline (which is also owned by TPG’s parent company, Red Ventures). “Even though it’s a low profile, small piece of paper, it’s an extraordinarily high value for you as a person to be able to travel.” 

Until there’s a universal verification tool, Swasey says he’ll be wearing a sticker he received after being vaccinated, which he plans to laminate when he hits the road.

The CDC recommends that vaccine administrators record vaccine information in a patient’s medical record. All COVID-19 vaccination providers are required to report data within 72 hours in their state’s immunization system.

So, there will likely be a backup record of your vaccination status somewhere. In the event you do lose your card, it wouldn’t hurt to give the facility that administered your injection a call.

Bottom line

While digital health or vaccine passports are expected to be optional, experts say they will be widely used in the travel industry and at other large gatherings, such as sporting events. That means you’ll want to keep your vaccine status or negative COVID-19 results in a safe place, which will make it easier to import them into a health passport or vaccine passport when you’re ready to get back out there.

Featured photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP

01 Mar 02:30

One hundred years of solitude

Rarely does one see such unambiguous good news as this:

The Berkeley City Council has unanimously voted to become the first Bay Area city to end single-family zoning. . . .

Berkeley was the first city in the country to enact single-family zoning more than 100 years ago.

Opponents of single-family zoning say it was used to exclude people of color from moving into certain neighborhoods.

Who wins?

1.  Conservatives that favor local control of zoning decisions.

2.  Conservatives that favor deregulation and free markets.

3.  Progressives worried about housing affordability for the poor and minorities.

4.  Urbanists worried that suburbia creates isolated, atomistic people, unconnected to their neighbors.

5.  Environmentalists worried about urban sprawl.

Congratulations to Berkeley for ending 100 years of solitude.

(15 COMMENTS)
01 Mar 00:13

Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews

by Scott Alexander
Jack

I have to say I had not seen such a strong claim about vegetarian bacon as in the first review. Definitely piqued my interest.

By this point you’ve probably tried Impossible Burgers, and you know that restaurants can do some pretty impressive things with them. But there are so many interesting meat dishes - what if you want something other than a burger? This market is still developing, but I live in the Bay Area, which is probably its epicenter. And I’m mostly-vegetarian, so I have no choice but to try it out.

I tried eight restaurants which offered unusual plant-based meat dishes. Here are my reviews. Unlike many other food critics, I freely admit I have no taste. There’s nothing about subtle flavors or quality ingredients in here, because I would get that stuff wrong. This is just about whether I, a mostly-vegetarian person who likes the taste of meat, felt like these plant-based meat options succeeded at resembling animal products.

(yes, I’m deliberately mocking myself by publishing this the day after the post on classism)


The Butcher’s Son

A “vegan delicatessan and bakery” in Berkeley. According to the website:

The name The Butcher’s Son is based on the idea of the modern son of a butcher, who was raised eating animal products. When he grows up and opens his own business, he strives to create healthier and more sustainable options that still satisfy his cravings for the foods he grew up with.

Fact check: false. Neither of the founders (a brother-sister pair) are related to butchers. It’s just some whimsical daydream they had. Their father actually owned a vegetarian restaurant (a different one). I admit “The Vegetarian Restaurant Owner’s Son” doesn’t have the same ring to it.

(the same two people own another vegan restaurant called The King’s Feet, but they don’t explain which of their whimsical daydreams gave rise to this one. Probably for the best.)

I ordered a pastrami Reuben, and my date ordered a BLAT (a BLT with avocado). The Reuben was…good-ish. Good-adjacent? Tolerable. Tasted better than it looked!

The bacon was amazing. I have gotten some friends to try it, and they all agree it’s as good as real bacon. At least as good as real bacon. This is the best vegetarian bacon I have ever had. I would have expected bacon to be one of the hardest plant-based meats to get right, but Butcher’s Son has done it. They have solved plant-based bacon. There’s nowhere further to go from here.

Their restaurant is attached to a store that sells some of their plant-based meat in packaged form for people who want to cook with it at home. I haven’t explored this place as much as I want because getting delivery is complicated - they seem to use DoorDash kind of inconsistently.

4/5 stars: The bacon is amazing, everything else is okay.


Nature Vegetarian Restaurant

This is a vegetarian Chinese restaurant. Their website doesn’t list any inspirational backstory or whimsical daydreams, so I assume they’re a front for the mob. I ordered their vegetarian takes on Mongolian beef, BBQ pork rice, and General Tao's chicken.

Chinese food is a good match for fake meat - their meat dishes are usually so slathered in sauce and intermixed with vegetables that any deficiencies in the meat are easy to hide with good performance on the sauce and veggie front. Also, American Chinese food meat seems inherently suspicious. Like those weird little puffy ball-like bits of chicken - what are those? They already seem weird enough that it's a small step from there to completely fake soy derivative product.

The Mongolian beef didn't put much effort into looking realistic, but it tasted better than it looked. It benefitted from great sauce and a bed of peppers, which gave it enough crunch and flavor to disguise any flaws in the texture. Aside from the appearance I was happy with this.

The pork BBQ rice had small enough pieces of BBQ pork that they were barely noticeable. It just tasted like normal rice. I can't remember the last time I ate real Chinese pork BBQ rice, but I assume this is faithful to the genre. Whatever.

The General Tao chicken was actually excellent! It looked so realistic that I did a double-take and worried they'd sent me the real stuff. The taste was 95% the usual sweet spicy sauce, and the texture was good enough that I found myself thinking back to the last time I'd had real Chinese chicken, trying to remember if it tasted different/better than this. I plan on ordering from here again and trying some of their other chicken dishes just to see if they're all this good [update: I did and they are].

I was briefly confused about whether General Tao was the same person as General Tso, or, like, his vegetarian brother or something. I looked this up and found that these are both acceptable Romanizations of the name of General Zuo Zongtang, a 19th-century Qing dynasty official from Hunan Province. He had nothing to do with the chicken - in fact, Tso's descendants had never heard of the dish. A Taiwanese-American chef with Hunanese roots invented the chicken in New York and named it after a hometown hero. Wikipedia also informs me that General Tso reconquered Xinjiang for China and ethnic-cleansed thousands of Uighurs and other Chinese Muslims, so maybe he needs to be cancelled.

On the other hand, if you believe that eating chicken might be a moral atrocity, maybe one moral atrocity should be named after another. Maybe I would feel less silly ordering from all these mediocre vegetarian restaurants if normal foods had names like “Idi Amin's hamburger special” or “Comrade Stalin’s lamb shank”. Maybe General Tso's chicken is the only dish that's doing it right.

Overall I was very happy with this restaurant, especially the chicken. 4.5/5 stars.


Vegan Mob

This is a vegan barbecue, so they're not making things easy for themselves. Their website autoplays a full-screen video when you go to it, so I got annoyed and didn't look into it too hard. At least they’re not a front for the mob - I assume real mob fronts try to avoid including “mob” in the name.

I ordered a combo plate of chicken breasts, chicken drumsticks, and brisket. The drumsticks were realistic-looking and had a realistic texture. They were covered in sauce, and the sauce tasted good, which is kind of like the drumsticks tasting good, although they weren't "juicy" in any meaningful sense. The breasts were kind of similar, except they didn't look much like chicken breasts or anything else.

The brisket was probably the best thing I had; it looked and tasted like real brisket, although again this was mostly because anything covered in enough sauce is going to taste like sauce. Still, I was impressed.

The French fries almost, but not quite, managed to taste like real French fries. I have no explanation for this. I have no reason to think that vegan restaurants make fake French fries. I don't even know what making fake vegan French fries would mean. Yet they were still slightly off. Maybe this is me having a high prior on anything I get from a vegan restaurant tasting weird, and my brain didn't think this one through enough before forming an opinion on the fries? Still, I cannot recommend them. The other sides were good, especially the beans.

I enjoyed this as an experience. It looks like a real barbecue plate! It successfully gives me the feeling of having a barbecue plate and getting to eat it! The food was good for what it was, but not going to suddenly convert any meat-eaters to vegetarianism. The French fries were from an alternate world where potatoes are animals. 3.5/5 stars.


Souley Vegan

I sit here, staring at my plate of vegan alligator nuggets, and wonder where I went wrong in life.

I have to admit, I've never tried real alligator. It’s not even about the ethics. It just seems totally unappealing, like eating a big scaly toothy log.

Yet here I am, staring at a plate of "It Ain't Gator" vegan alligator nuggets. Why did I order these? Something something would make a funny story for the blog review something? I remind myself that these contain no actual alligator, have never been anywhere near an alligator, probably they're the same processed seitan mix as everything else. Gingerly, I take a bite. They are not the same processed seitan mix as everything else. They taste weird in some hard-to-define way. I am displeased.

Later I look at the Souley Vegan menu more closely, and it says they are "diced Louisiana Hot Links and mushrooms battered in creole spiced mix". Mushrooms! That was the weird taste! But wait a second. What are Louisiana Hot Links? According to Google, they're a kind of beef sausage. This is, uh, some kind of fake vegan Louisiana Hot Links, right? Whatever. I am still displeased.

The Po' Boy sandwich tasted fine; on a bun with lettuce, tomato, and mayonnaise, I mostly tasted the lettuce, tomato, and mayonnaise. The fries were ruined by the transportation process, in the same way as all fries everywhere, but the garlic dip they came with was okay.

2/5 stars, but realistically I did this to myself by ordering fake alligator which I knew I would hate.


Canasta Kitchen

Not really a dedicated vegetarian restaurant, but they offered an Impossible Ceviche. I was intrigued so I ordered it, along with a burrito of "vegan al pastor" meat, and some "Cali fries" with guacamole, vegan al pastor meat, cheese, etc.

They did not include the Impossible Ceviche in my order, saying that it was unavailable. I guess I deserve this for ordering impossible food.

The burrito was terrible. The meat had some kind of weird flavor to it, I don't know if it was the taste of whatever meat substitute they used, something they added to disguise the taste of the meat substitute they used, or a real Mexican sauce gone horribly wrong. If they had Impossible Meat, I don't know why they didn't just use that (I mean, I guess they didn't have Impossible Meat, but...) The fries were terrible in the same way as all delivery fries, plus a little extra.

I will give them this - their spicy sauce was really spicy. I make this a point in their favor, because lots of restaurants are cowards and feel like their patrons can't handle actually spicy sauces. Canasta Kitchen are no cowards. I may have been writhing on the floor for several minutes, but I approve in principle.

Overall my least favorite place so far. To be fair to them: they're not a vegetarian restaurant, their vegetarian options seemed like kind of an afterthought, and for all I know their meat is amazing. To stop being fair to them, this is a vegetarian food review, I tried to order their vegetarian ceviche, they wouldn't give it to me, and so I am going to review what I got. 1.5/5 stars.


Crave Subs and Ike’s Love And Sandwiches

Ike's Love And Sandwiches is a popular Bay Area sandwich restaurant. Crave Subs is a suspiciously similar newcomer.

Ike's sandwiches have names like "Lex Luthor" and "Chester the Cheetah". Crave's have names like "Iron Man" and "Donald Duck". Both chains offer the same choice of French, sourdough, Dutch cruch, wheat, and gluten-free breads. Both give you a few free lollipops in the bag with every order. Also, Ike's is located at the intersection of Shattuck and Center Streets in Berkeley; Crave's is also located at that intersection, about 400 ft away.

When I first learned about Crave, I thought Ike's had just changed its name for some reason. I googled to figure out why and learned that no, this is just sandwich plagiarism. I can't piece together the whole story, but it looks like Crave is owned by a Muslim family who wanted a sandwich place with more halal options. Is that enough to justify calling the Ike's/Crave rivalry a religious war? Is this what's happened to Huntington's Clash Of Civilizations Thesis in an increasingly consumerist world?

I ordered Ike's Meatless Mike (vegan meatballs, marinara, and pepper jack), Handsome Owl (vegan chicken, wasabi mayo, and swiss), and Pilgrim (vegan turkey and cranberry). I ordered Crave's Charmander (vegan meatballs, marinara, and provolone), Goku (vegan chicken, BBQ sauce, and pepper jack), and Kim Possible (vegan impossible patty, Swiss, and mushrooms).

(I'm abstracting this as a head-to-head taste test, but it was actually over a few different meals, some of which were months before others)

The two meatball and marinara subs were a wash - I couldn't really stand either. I was able to finish Ike's and had to throw out Crave's, but I don't know if this was a real quality difference or if I was just in a less tolerant mood.

I really liked Ike's Handsome Owl. The wasabi mayo was an interesting taste, and the vegan chicken was somewhere between inoffensive and actually good. Crave's Goku impressed me less - either the BBQ sauce wasn't quite as good at distracting from the fake meat as the wasabi mayo, or their fake meat was lower quality. I'm reluctant to conclude the latter because then I'm going to feel embarrassed when I inevitably learn they order from the same supplier.

Ike's Pilgrim was great. I can't tell the difference between their veggie turkey and the real thing. I'm not sure a turkey and cranberry sandwich is really what I want, but insofar as it is, this absolutely satisfies that urge.

Crave's Kim Possible was also great. It's no longer really surprising that Impossible meat is good, but Crave is the first restaurant I've seen to incorporate it into a sub, they've beaten Ike's to this milestone, and they deserve credit for this.

I give Ike's 4/5 stars and Crave 3/5, though it's hard for me to decide how to award points for Crave having Impossible Meat and Ike's not having it. If you haven't tried plant-based meat sandwiches, you'll probably be impressed by either of these places.


Summer Summer Thai Eatery

Their website has ten different accessibility options, including "pause animations" and "dyslexia friendly", hidden in an unobtrusive corner menu. This is great. It seems to be courtesy of a site called UserWay, so check them out if you like user-readable websites. This is the most accessible site I have ever seen, which makes it ironic that it has no actual content. It's just a link to their UberEats/DoorDash pages, all of which are inaccessible as usual.

I don't really like Thai food, but a friend did a group order from here and I tagged along. I was really impressed by their menu. This is the only local restaurant I've found that takes the potential of Impossible Meat seriously - all of their meat dishes come in Impossible versions! You can get Impossible Panang, Tangy Thai Cashew Impossible, Gra Pow Impossible, etc.

I ordered the Panang and Thai Cashew. Both were okay. I don't really like Thai food, so I can't judge. You probably already know how Thai food tastes and how Impossible Meat tastes. There wasn't any kind of surprising nonlinear effect here. It just tasted like Thai food that used Impossible Meat.

I still give them 4/5 stars for their wide selection, accessible-albeit-useless website, and suspicion that people who like Thai food will enjoy it.


Golden Lotus Vegan Restaurant

I wondered why "Golden Lotus" sounded so familiar, until I remembered that was what I called the creepy enlightenment speedrunning cult in my story Samsara. Whatever, probably this is a common name for Asian-associated things. Just a coincidence, right?

I ordered the Szechaun Pineapple Beef, Caramelized Chicken, Sweet Orange, and Spicy Ginger. I assumed that they'd just forgotten to add the word "chicken" after "sweet orange" and "spicy ginger". I mean, those dishes are traditionally chicken, and they have to be something right?

Wrong. The sweet orange and spicy ginger dishes somehow managed to be a fully generic food, a sort of everything and nothing all at once. It came in little rectangles and tasted like the abstract concept of eating something. They weren't bad - that would have involved having a characteristic - but I was creeped out by them and do not recommend.

The Szechuan pineapple beef came from the same school of fake beef that gave us the Mongolian Beef at the Nature Chinese place, but I was less of a fan of the pineapple sauce and so less willing to overlook its other flaws. The caramelized chicken was the only thing that made an attempt to have a texture and really seem foodlike; I give it a B minus. Maybe if I hadn't been so creeped out by the first two dishes I would be able to recognize these as decent attempts at solving the difficult problems inherent in vegetarian foodstuffs. As it is, I cut them no slack.

2.5/5 stars, and they're totally the creepy enlightenment speedrunning cult from the story.


If you’ve never tried plant-based meat before, and you have any interest - either because you want to reduce your meat consumption, or just for the lulz - where should you start?

If you’ve never had an Impossible Burger, start there. I like Umami Burger, but most restaurants can pull this off fine. You can even get one at your local Burger King.

If you’ve had Impossible Burgers and are looking for something more interesting, my favorite dish from this round of reviews was the chicken at Nature Vegetarian Restaurant. General Tao’s and Salt & Pepper were especially good.

If you don’t want a burger and you don’t want Chinese, I recommend Ike’s sandwiches, especially the Pilgrim.

28 Feb 23:38

No hay esperanza

by ssumner
Jack

At least Mexico only has one term presidents... But it is for six years I believe.

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There’s a country of 130 million people on America’s southern border—one of our largest trading partners. Interestingly, Americans pay almost no attention to what’s going on in Mexico. How many could even name its leader? Indeed, how many Americans with PhDs could name its leader? I’ll bet more people could name Canada’s leader. Even I couldn’t remember Amlo’s formal name when I sat down to write this post. Here are some facts about him:

1. Andrés Manuel López Obrador was defeated in presidential elections in 2006 and 2012, and then claimed the elections were stolen from him.

Sound familiar?

2. In 2018, he campaigned on revising the NAFTA treaty, and did so after being elected.

Sound familiar?

3. He toughened his southern border to prevent illegal migration.

Sound familiar?

4. He tried to push Mexico away from clean energy sources, and back to fossil fuels:

The government has ended auctions to bring on more renewable projects. It tried to halt the final testing needed for new clean energy plants to come online. And President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and his allies are pushing through legislation that would effectively kill existing renewable investments by favoring more expensive and dirtier energy sources. Combined with Mexico’s backsliding on its Paris Accord commitments, such measures will make Mexico a pariah among its more environmentally focused peers. And carbon-based taxes on imports in many markets — starting with Europe — could erode if not end Mexico’s manufacturing advantages. 

Sound familiar?

5. He made almost no effort to control Covid, and Mexico ended up being hit especially hard.

Sound familiar?

6. He campaigned against corruption, and then his office tried to prevent any oversight of corruption in his government:

One scandal featured the president’s wife and a $7 million mansion built by a top government contractor. Another involved the misuse of federal AIDS funds to buy Cartier pens and women’s underwear. Then there was the “Master Fraud,” in which $400 million flowed between 11 government agencies, eight universities and dozens of phony companies — with half disappearing.

Each of the cases was exposed thanks to Mexico’s freedom of information system, often ranked among the world’s most effective. Created in 2002, it has allowed journalists and researchers to wrest documents from a government long known for opacity.

The system has been “one of the most important democratic advances in Mexico” since the end of one-party rule in 2000, said Roberto Rock, a journalist who lobbied for its creation.

Now, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador wants to rein in the National Institute for Access to Information, or INAI, the independent body that runs the system. He says it’s expensive and has failed to end corruption.

Sound familiar?

He’s also not exactly a strong proponent of the MeToo movement.

Obrador is a man of “the left” and Trump is on “the right”, two terms that once had actual significance, but no longer have any coherent meaning in the 21st century.

Obrador was the great hope for the Mexican left for several decades. Then he was finally elected. Why isn’t his administration being widely celebrated? Why does no one seem to even care? Has everyone given up all hope for the future?

Remember when Daniel Ortega was viewed by Reagan as a communist threat in Nicaragua? He’s morphed from atheist left-winger to conservative Christian pro-business corrupt Trumpian presidente-for-life.

I never liked the left, but I do miss the time when people still had hope for the future, however misguided. Now everyone, even on the left, knows that it’s all just dirty politics. Now there’s no hope for the future.

Welcome to the 21st century!

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21 Feb 18:54

Venezuelan relative price fact of the day

by Tyler Cowen

As Venezuela enters its eighth year of economic crisis, a deeply personal drama is playing out inside the home: Millions of women are no longer able to find or afford birth control, pushing many into unplanned pregnancies at a time when they can barely feed the children they already have.

Around Caracas, the capital, a pack of three condoms costs $4.40 — three times Venezuela’s monthly minimum wage of $1.50.

Birth control pills cost more than twice as much, roughly $11 a month, while an IUD, or intrauterine device, can cost more than $40 — more than 25 times the minimum wage. And that does not include a doctor’s fee to have the device put in.

Here is the full NYT article.

The post Venezuelan relative price fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

21 Feb 18:49

The equitization of human labor, Fernando Tatis Jr. edition

by Tyler Cowen

Fernando Tatís Jr. was 18 years old, just a low-level prospect from the Dominican Republic trying to work his way up in the San Diego Padres farm system, when he made a financial deal that would impact his entire baseball career. And it wasn’t with the Padres.

Tatís signed a contract with Big League Advance, an unusual investment fund that pays minor-league players money up front in exchange for a share of their future MLB earnings.

Tatís, now 22 and widely viewed as one of the sport’s best young stars, today knows what those earnings will be. He agreed to a record-setting 14-year contract with the Padres on Wednesday night worth an eye-popping $340 million, the third-highest total in MLB history.

His new contract also creates a significant obligation for Tatís: to pay a sizable chunk of his new bounty—perhaps close to $30 million—to Big League Advance.

Here is the full WSJ piece, via Rick Pildes.

The post The equitization of human labor, Fernando Tatis Jr. edition appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

20 Feb 22:19

Data finds Pfizer vaccine highly effective after first dose, can be stored in normal freezers

by Sam Baker

Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine may be more effective after just one shot than researchers had previously realized, and can be stored for two weeks at standard temperatures typically found in pharmaceutical freezers and refrigerators, according to new data.

Why it matters: The findings about first-dose efficacy, which appear in a new analysis published in The Lancet, appear to support a strategy of delaying second shots in order to make the most of limited supplies. That's what the U.K. has done, and some experts have called for a similar approach in the U.S.


Separately, Pfizer and BioNtech's announcement that vaccine vials can be stored and transported at -25°C to-15°C (-13°F to 5°F) could allow the vaccine to be handled by ordinary pharmacies that aren't equipped with ultra-low freezers, which have been an impediment in the vaccine rollout.

  • The companies said that they had submitted a proposed update to the FDA's emergency use authorization to allow the vaccine to be stored at these temperatures "as an alternative or complement to storage in an ultra-low temperature freezer."

Details: Pfizer's clinical trials initially showed that its vaccine prevented roughly 52% of infections after one dose, rising to 95% after two doses.

  • The new research published in The Lancet, however, found that the first shot of Pfizer's vaccine actually prevented about 75% of infections, and 85% of symptomatic infections, up to 28 days after it was administered.
  • The findings were based on an evaluation of about 9,000 people in Israel, which has vaccinated over two-thirds of its adult population, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Yes, but: There are some limitations to this study and its implications for delaying second doses.

  • Although the first dose appeared to be more powerful than originally anticipated, researchers still don't know how long its effects will last.
  • Pfizer recommends getting the second dose 21 days after the first one. The Israeli study measured the efficacy of the first shot within 15 to 28 days of its administration — not a significant delay. And most participants in the trial did receive their second shots, the authors told the WSJ.

The big picture: Most of the people in this study got their second doses, and got those doses on time. Second doses were not delayed in this case, and so this study does not directly answer the question of what happens when you delay second doses.

  • The findings will bolster calls to delay second doses because they indicate that first doses are more effective than we realized — making a compelling case to get that level of protection to as many people as possible as quickly as possible, to save lives and bring the pandemic under control.
20 Feb 22:18

British real wealth is rising

by Tyler Cowen

Sterling climbed to $1.40 for the first time in almost three years as investors looked past gloomy data and instead focused on hopes the country’s rapid coronavirus vaccine rollout will boost economic prospects.

The currency has risen 2.4 per cent against the dollar since the end of 2020, and more than 3 per cent against the euro. It traded as high as $1.4008 and €1.156, respectively, on Friday.

Here is more from the FT.

The post British real wealth is rising appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

20 Feb 19:21

Fiscal Stimulus Around the World

by Greg Mankiw


20 Feb 17:07

Canadian study: Do we need the second dose from Pfizer and Moderna?

20 Feb 04:07

COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

by Scott Alexander

Most health articles ask you to act on their opinions. I am specifically asking you not to act on mine. In a moment, I'll tell you whether or not I think Vitamin D prevents or treats coronavirus. But I'll give you a free spoiler: I am less than 100% certain of what I'm about to say. So if you want to take Vitamin D, take it. If it does prevent or cure coronavirus, great. If not, the worst that will happen is you'll have slightly better bone health. I can't stress how much I don't want to be those people who said they couldn't prove face masks helped so you must not use face masks. Just ignore everything I'm saying, do a quick cost-benefit calculation, and take Vitamin D. That having been said:

Lots of people think Vitamin D treats coronavirus, and some of them have good evidence. For example, infection rate from coronavirus seems latitude dependent; in general, the further north an area, the worse it's been hit. Northern areas get less sunlight, and sunlight helps produce Vitamin D, so whenever you see a disease that's worse at high latitudes, Vitamin D should be on your short list of potential causes.

Also - in the US, COVID seemed to remit with the summer and worsen over the winter. It's hard to distinguish this from general exponential growth and from the effect of playing ping-pong with gradually loosening/ tightening lockdowns, but the US spike this winter was pretty dramatic. Most Northern Hemisphere countries show such a pattern, most equatorial countries don't, and some Southern Hemisphere countries arguably show the opposite. Whenever you see a disease that's better in summer and worse in winter, Vitamin D is one of the possible culprits.

And also, black people get COVID 1.4x more than white people, and die of it 3x more often. There are lots of potential social causes for health disparities between black and white people. But among potential biological causes, one of the most important is that black people have much less Vitamin D at temperate latitudes - their dark skin blocks the sunlight that would usually help them produce it. This is another pattern that sometimes means Vitamin D could be involved (ask me about schizophrenia rates sometime!), although there are obviously lots of other things that could be going on here.

Also also, we know a lot of immune cells have Vitamin D receptors, and Vitamin D seems to modulate the immune system in some important way. A giant meta-analysis in 2017 found that Vitamin D modestly decreased rates of flus and colds, some of the coronavirus' closest relatives.

So lots of people did studies, and some of them were pretty suggestive. For example, a couple of papers like Radujkovic et al found that coronavirus patients with low Vitamin D levels had worse outcomes (eg were more likely to need ICU care or to die) than patients with higher levels. A couple more papers like Annweiler et al found that patients who regularly took Vitamin D supplements for the year before they got coronavirus did better. A team from Quest Diagnostics, led by Harvey Kaufman, looked through 190,000 patients who they had tested for both coronavirus and vitamin D levels, and found that the coronavirus patients had notably lower Vitamin D levels than controls. Another team under Eugene Merzon in Israel looked through their databases and found the same in a 7807 patient sample.

Surely that's enough evidence to reach a firm conclusion, right?

I'm not completely convinced.

In the US, more blacks than whites have gotten coronavirus. But this could be because of Vitamin D, or because of wealth/education disparities. One easy way to check this is to look at Asians. Despite their superficially lighter skin, they have Vitamin D deficiencies almost as bad as blacks. But on average they're better-off and better-educated than whites. If blacks' problem was Vitamin D, we would expect Asians to do worse than whites; if it was wealth and education, we'd expect them to do better. In fact, it's a mix. They get coronavirus only about half as often as whites, but they do worse once they get it. This suggests that maybe blacks are are getting the virus more because of wealth/education disparities, but doing worse once they get it because of something that might be Vitamin D? So maybe Vitamin D is involved in severity, but not overall infection risk? We'll come back to this.

If blacks get coronavirus more often because of socioeconomic reasons, and also have lower Vitamin D, anybody looking at coronavirus infection rate without adjusting for race is suspect. Merzon and the Israelis didn't control for race (and Israel is quite racially diverse). Kaufman and the Quest team say they adjusted for race, but if you look at their paper, they didn't have access to race data for any participants, so instead they looked at what zip code they were in, coded it as majority-black or majority-white or whatever, and adjusted for that. I live in a majority black zip code, so apparently I'm black now. And my lived experience as a person of color, which I hear is more trustworthy than any scientific study, tells me this is a big enough loophole to invalidate the entire paper. When white people in majority black zip codes have enough money/education to avoid the coronavirus more effectively than real black people, and also have higher Vitamin D because of their lighter skin color, the paper’s metholodogy is going to mistake this for Vitamin D preventing coronavirus.

Two other teams, Hastie and Raisi-Estabragh, independently analyzed data from UK Biobank's 350,000 participants. They actually knew the race of all their participants instead of guessing (plus Biobank is 95% white anyway), and neither of them found any effect of Vitamin D status on risk of getting COVID. That makes me think the people who did find it were just failing to adjust for race and probably other things effectively.

(partisans of Merzon and Kaufman point out that the Biobank Vitamin D data was ten years old by the time they got the coronavirus data, so possibly out of date. But Vitamin D levels are usually stable over long periods, and their sample is more than big enough that this shouldn't sink the study).

What about all the people who find that lower Vitamin D upon hospitalization for coronavirus corresponds to worse outcomes? Many diseases deplete Vitamin D, including coronavirus itself. So low Vitamin D levels could mean you have more comorbidities, could mean you're sick and frail so you're staying inside and avoiding sunlight, could mean you're black and have whatever other risk factors black people have (including much more hypertension) - or it could just mean you have a worse case of coronavirus. All of these can make your outcomes worse. The people who took Vitamin D supplements consistently for a year before being hospitalized did better because people who can do anything consistently for a year will do better - this selects for high-conscientiousness people who care a lot about their health and have good relationships with their doctors.

Take away these confounders, and it's another story. The same study (Annweiler et al) which found daily supplementation helped found that being given lots of Vitamin D just after entering the hospital didn't seem to help. That's because that's more of a randomized trial type thing compared to just selecting for conscientious people. In fact, this team finds that although taking Vitamin D supplements consistently seems to decrease coronavirus risk, this is independent of how much Vitamin D you have, which seems more like what would happen with a confounder than with a real effect.

Are there real randomized controlled trials? Yes - three of them. One from Spain (n = 76) tried randomizing hospital patients to get or not get Vitamin D; the patients in the experimental group did much much much better (25x lower odds of having to go to the ICU!) than the control group. Another from India (n = 40) tested asymptomatic people with mild cases; everyone stayed mild but the patients treated with Vitamin D were three times more likely to clear the infection quickly. The last, from Brazil (n = 240) was a large multicenter RCT that tested whether Vitamin D affected the outcomes of hospital patients. It found no effect whatsoever, not even a hint of a trend.

I could take or leave the Indian trial; nobody is worrying very much about seroconversion in mild cases. The Spanish and Brazilian ones are a pretty jarring contrast. In the Spanish one, the Vitamin D treated patients did 25x better; in the Brazilian one, there was no benefit at all.

I side with Brazil. It's bigger, more professionally-done, and has fewer minor statistical flaws that really shouldn't matter this much but make me nervous. Also, in the past I have learned to side with negative RCTs rather than astoundingly massively positive ones when the two conflict. There were some early astoundingly massively positive RCTs for hydroxychloroquine, and then the bigger and more-professionally-done ones that came later showed no effect.

(yes, I've read the arguments that the bigger ones started too late, and HCQ works better for early prevention. But a lot of the small early ones that showed astounding results also started late. Sometimes small early studies just suck.)

To what degree should we be trying to come up with clever ways to reconcile the two studies? For example, the Spanish study used a version of Vitamin D called calcifediol; the Brazilian one used a slightly different version called cholecalciferol. Calcifediol becomes active more quickly than cholecalciferol, enough so that if I were in the business of defending the Spanish study I might argue that it takes a few weeks for cholecalciferol to work, so giving it to someone who will already be dead or recovered by then is meaningless. I don't really want to be in the business of pretending to know things about the biochemistry of Vitamin D, so I am going to assume that whichever doctors ran these studies did not completely bungle them and use forms of Vitamin D that could not possibly have worked in the time period involved. It would make me more comfortable if someone who did understand Vitamin D biochemistry would confirm this, but I'm not going to hang the whole argument on it.

One last study worth looking at: Butler-Laporte et al from Montreal. They use Mendelian randomization, a high-tech method that tries to get experiment-quality evidence from observational data by looking at genes directly. The idea is: you can't just measure whether people with low Vitamin D get COVID more, because that could be confounded by all sorts of things like whether sick people are more likely to stay indoors and get less sunlight or a thousand other things like that. So instead, you measure whether people with the genes for low Vitamin D get COVID more. We assume that people with the genes for low Vitamin D in fact have low Vitamin D. And this isn't confounded by anything; we know their low Vitamin D is genetic. So if these people get COVID more, we can be pretty sure that their COVID is caused by Vitamin D.

But they don't. People with genes for low Vitamin D get COVID at the same rate as everyone else. And their COVID becomes severe at the same rate as everyone else. The authors tried to limit their study to white people, so it shouldn't be confounded by genes related to race. This is a pretty hard study to get around. If I really wanted to get around it, I could argue that Vitamin D variation within the normal range doesn't matter, but getting a massive bolus at a hospital does, for some reason. But that throws out a lot of seemingly convincing arguments like the evidence from latitude.

So my impression is that the best-quality observational study (UK Biobank studies that adjusted for race correctly), the best-quality RCT (the Brazilian study), and an additional really neat high-tech method all converge on no effect of Vitamin D on coronavirus incidence or severity.

The loose ends that bother me the most are the seasonal pattern, the latitude data, plus the increased risk of hospitalization and death in Asians. I don't have a great explanation for those. One possibility is that sunlight does help prevent coronavirus, it just isn't Vitamin D mediated. I suspect that the "anything involving sunlight is Vitamin D" assumption a lot of epidemiologists have isn't going to hold up very well - this seems especially true for cancer, where sunlight matters a lot but study after study has shown Vitamin D doesn't help at all. It may also be true for schizophrenia, although I'm going off one really pathetic study there and it could very well turn out to be Vitamin D after all. Some people are doing a little bit of work to clear up what the sunlight-related-Vitamin-D-independent pathways might be; I think nitric oxide has come up a few times.

This would explain the failed RCT and Mendelian randomization. But if it were true, we would expect to see more of a correlation in observational data - the people with more nitric oxide (or whatever) would be the people who get the most sunlight would be the people who have the most Vitamin D. So I don't think this really saves anything.

There's also the argument on priors - if Vitamin D helps with other infections, shouldn't it also help with this one? I don't know. SACN reviews other evidence that Vitamin D only helps prevent infections in children and not adults, and at low doses and not high, which is enough slicing and dicing that it makes me skeptical of the whole thing. I don’t know if the other-infections data is on any stronger foundation than the COVID data.

I've waited until now to bring in the argument from authority. NICE, the UK health system's guideline-making authority, says that "there [is] little evidence for using vitamin D supplements to prevent or treat COVID‑19", which is a terrible framing (give me time to write a post on this) but gets the point across well enough. UpToDate, the private company that produces semi-canonical evidence aggregation for US doctors, says that "there is no clear evidence that vitamin D supplementation reduces the risk or severity of COVID-19" (sorry, you won't be able to read that link without a subscription). Stuart Ritchie, who literally wrote the book on how to tell good science from bad, says he's unsure, but in a way that sounds a bit skeptical. This seems like a pretty common position.

Here are my beliefs after doing this research:

Does Vitamin D significantly decrease the risk of getting COVID?: 25% chance this is true. The Biobank and Mendelian randomization studies are strong arguments against this; the latitude, seasonal, and racial differences are only weak evidence in favor.

Does Vitamin D use at a hospital significantly improve your chances?: 25% chance this is true. I trust the large Brazilian study more than the smaller Spanish one, but aside from size and a general bias towards skepticism I can't justify this very well.

Do the benefits of taking a Vitamin D supplement at a normal dose equal or outweigh the costs for most people?: 75% chance this is true. The risks are pretty low, and it will probably bring you closer to rather than further from a natural range if you're a modern indoor worker (side effects are few; the most serious is probably kidney stones, so don’t take it if you have any tendency towards that). And maybe some day, after countless false leads and stupid red herrings, one of the claims people make about this substance will actually pan out. Who knows?

20 Feb 04:05

Ezra Klein On Vetocracy

by Scott Alexander

In my review last week of Ezra Klein's Why We're Polarized, I linked to a related Vox article on vetocracy:

In a viral essay, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen makes a simple exhortation: It’s time to build. Behind the coronavirus crisis, he writes, lies “our widespread inability to build.” America has been unable to create enough coronavirus tests, or even enough cotton swabs to fully utilize the tests we do have. We don’t have enough ventilators, ICU beds, personal protection equipment. The government hasn’t built the capacity to quickly get money to people or businesses who need it.

And it’s not just the coronavirus. The US could be building our way out of the housing crisis and the climate crisis. We could be building a better education system, more advanced infrastructure. We could have more and better factories, supersonic aircraft, delivery drones, flying cars [...]

I think Andreessen is uncharacteristically underestimating the appetite for building. The absence of creation doesn’t reflect an absence of desire — even in that epicenter of supposed stagnation, Washington, DC.

I’ve covered Congress for almost 20 years. The place is littered with proposals to construct universal pre-K and reimagine the health system, to decarbonize the US economy and incentivize drug development through prizes and solve the housing crisis. They just don’t pass. It’s become a running joke in Washington that every week is “infrastructure week.” But we’re not rebuilding American infrastructure.

The question, then, is why don’t we build? What’s stopping us?

Here’s my answer: The institutions through which Americans build have become biased against action rather than toward it. They’ve become, in political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s term, “vetocracies,” in which too many actors have veto rights over what gets built. That’s true in the federal government. It’s true in state and local governments. It’s even true in the private sector.

Klein argues that the US government can no longer do anything, especially not things that look like building, or inventing, or infrastructure, or making good plans, or solving problems. He attributes this to a bias towards inaction, implemented in the form of multiple veto points at which various interested actors can stop or delay things. Recently he followed it up with an editorial in the New York Times arguing that California, for all its supposed liberalism, was structurally conservative - it's good at cosmetic nods to progressive aesthetics, but incapable of progress toward real progressive goals. Its vetocracy is too entrenched to let anyone change anything.

Nobody who’s ever looked into the housing crisis in San Francisco will disagree here, but it raises some complicated questions that need some sorting out.

First, is vetocracy the same as polarization? Klein sometimes treats the two concepts interchangeably; for example, he says he's written a book about "how the US government has becoming a dysfunctional vetocracy" (presumably Why We're Polarized). But elsewhere he doesn't treat them interchangably; for example, he talks about some kinds of shareholder activism in corporations as examples of vetocracy. But these don't seem linked to partisan politics. And a lot NIMBYism is unrelated to the Democrat/Republican divide.

I'm not sure how Klein thinks of this. Maybe he would say that vetocracy is getting worse everywhere, but that partisan polarization turns potential veto points into actual veto points. That is, the filibuster has always been a potential problem. But Congress was able to get by with it for decades, because everyone was polite and cooperative and didn't want to screw things up too badly. Once polarization created irresistable pressure for politicians to use every weapon at their disposal, the filibuster went from a potential problem to an actual problem.

Second, why is this happening? Any explanation that focuses too much on national politics must be wrong; it's happening equally at the local and corporate level. Klein traces the issue back to a well-intentioned reaction against eg Robert Moses, the High Modernists, and their tendency to devise grand projects, refuse to consult anyone affected, and bulldoze over anything that stood in their way (especially underprivileged people). Eventually citizens got tired enough of this that they implemented some veto points. Overall there seems to be a story where people were doing something bad, concerned citizens came up with a solution - add more veto points, so somebody has a chance to stop bad things before they happen! - and this became a one-way ratchet where veto points often increase but never decrease. Environmental impact reports, civil liberties groups suing the government over new laws, labor unions forcing terms on companies - all of these are examples of good people trying to prevent bad things in ways that introduce more veto points.

People have wanted fewer bad things forever, so any explanation of increasing vetocracy should start with an explanation of why this is becoming a problem now. The public choice theory perspective would emphasize the imbalance between doing things and preventing things. If a leader does something, and it's bad, then journalists will be on the scene to interview the victims of their failure, protesters can march against their abuses of power, etc. If a leader doesn't do something, and it would have been good, this is invisible except in rare cases (eg when they don't launch an effective coronavirus response). Everybody heard about the Obama administration's supposedly-bad decision to fund Solyndra. Nobody heard about their bad decision not to fund that one startup which, if it'd just had a little more funding, could have developed cold fusion in 2013. As the media becomes better at covering things, and people become more outraged by abuses, we should expect the number of veto points to go up.

Third, if the government can't do anything, why aren't we a libertarian paradise?

Or, more seriously, how come the number of pages in the federal regulatory code keeps growing, the percent of GDP that goes to government spending is stable or growing, companies complain of feeling stifled and over-regulated, and individuals feel like they're suffering from increasing authoritarianism?

On second thought, some of these aren't very hard questions. If regulations put a lot of roadblocks in your path and make you fight a bunch of battles before you can do anything, then the cost of doing things will go up, and a government that tries to do the same number of things (eg the post office still needs to deliver the same amount of mail, the military still needs to defend against the same foreign threats) will consume more of GDP. And the federal regulatory code contains the regulations that prevent you from doing things, so its growth is consistent with the vetocracy theory as well.

Still, isn't it kind of contradictory to say the government can't do anything, and then blame regulations? Shouldn't this be a self-limiting problem? Don't we eventually reach the point where the government can't implement more regulations on itself, and then disappears in a puff of logic?

Maybe this is the point where we step back and return to our theory of how vetocracy comes about. The government can still do things to hamstring itself (more optimistically: protect the most vulnerable from too-hastily-applied government power), it just can't do other things, the ones that exert government power. Since regulating corporations and private individuals is an attempt to protect the vulnerable from too-hastily-applied power, the government can do that too, which matches how unhappy libertarians are with this supposedly-government-powerless state of affairs.

(I guess this is kind of the opposite of state capacity libertarianism? SCL says “protect human freedom, but this should be compatible with making sure the government can still pull off socially necessary projects.” Vetocracy says “ordinary people are unfree, but don’t worry, the government can’t accomplish anything either.”)

If this is true, is there anything to do about it?

Well, you could decrease the number of veto points. But anyone who tried that would encounter two problems. First, it would be career suicide - when something bad inevitably happened, they would be on the hook for failing to prevent it - and no credit they got for all the cool things they were able to build would be able to save them. Second, it might be actually bad. Removing some the structures society put in place to prevent abuses and atrocities seems like the kind of thing that might cause there to be more abuses and atrocities. There needs to be some tradeoff, but I'm a little skeptical of anybody's ability to make it effectively. And even if they do, I'm very skeptical of the general public's ability to notice it and thank them.

The crypto solution, which has yet to fully mature, is something like “create structures which it’s impossible for anyone, including the creator, to change”. Seems like a pretty drastic solution. But what would a better one look like?

20 Feb 03:19

Book Review: The Cult Of Smart

by Scott Alexander

Oscar Wilde supposedly said George Bernard Shaw "has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends". Socialist blogger Freddie DeBoer is the opposite: few allies, but deeply respected by his enemies. I disagree with him about everything, so naturally I am a big fan of his work - which meant I was happy to read his latest book, The Cult Of Smart.

DeBoer starts with the standard narrative of The Failing State Of American Education. Students aren't learning. The country is falling behind. Only tough no-excuses policies, standardization, and innovative reforms like charter schools can save it, as shown by their stellar performance improving test scores and graduation rates.

He argues that every word of it is a lie. American education isn't getting worse by absolute standards: students match or outperform their peers from 20 or 50 years ago. It's not getting worse by international standards: America's PISA rankings are mediocre, but the country has always scored near the bottom of international rankings, even back in the 50s and 60s when we were kicking Soviet ass and landing men on the moon. Race and gender gaps are stable or decreasing. American education is doing much as it's always done - about as well as possible, given the crushing poverty, single parent-families, violence, and racism holding back the kids it's charged with shepherding to adulthood.

But then how do education reform efforts and charters produce such dramatic improvements? DeBoer's answer: by lying. Programs like Common Core and No Child Left Behind take credit for radically improving American education. But DeBoer shows they cook the books: most graduation rates have been improved by lowering standards for graduation; most test score improvements have come from warehousing bad students somewhere they don't take the tests. When charter schools have excelled, it's usually been by only accepting the easiest students (they’re not allowed to do this openly, but have ways to do it covertly), then attributing their great test scores to novel teaching methods. Most of this has been a colossal fraud, and the losers have been regular public school teachers, who get accused of laziness and inadequacy for failing to match the impressive-but-fake improvements of charter schools or "reformed" districts.

All these reform efforts have "succeeded" through Potemkin-style schemes where they parade their good students in front of journalists and researchers, and hide the bad students somewhere far from the public eye where they can't bring scores down. The overall distribution of good vs. bad students remains unchanged, and is mostly caused by natural talent; some kids are just smarter than others. DeBoer reviews the literature from behavioral genetics, including twin studies, adoption studies, and genome-wide association studies. All show that differences in intelligence and many other traits are more due to genes than specific environment. This requires an asterisk - we can only say for sure that the contribution of environment is less than that of genes in our current society; some other society with more (or less, or different) environmental variation might be a different story. But at least here and now, most outcomes depend more on genes than on educational quality. Schools can't turn dull people into bright ones, or ensure every child ends up knowing exactly the same amount. But that means some children will always fail to meet "the standards"; in fact, this might even be true by definition if we set the standards according to some algorithm where if every child always passed they would be too low.

For decades, politicians of both parties have thought of education as "the great leveller" and the key to solving poverty. If people are stuck in boring McJobs, it's because they're not well-educated enough to be surgeons and rocket scientists. Give them the education they need, and they can join the knowledge economy and rise into the upper-middle class. For lack of any better politically-palatable way to solve poverty, this has kind of become a totem: get better schools, and all those unemployed Appalachian coal miners can move to Silicon Valley and start tech companies. But you can't do that. Not everyone is intellectually capable of doing a high-paying knowledge economy job. Schools can change your intellectual potential a limited amount. Ending child hunger, removing lead from the environment, and similar humanitarian programs can do a little more, but only a little. In the end, a lot of people aren't going to make it.

So what can you do? DeBoer doesn't think there's an answer within the existing system. Instead, we need to dismantle meritocracy.

DeBoer is skeptical of "equality of opportunity". Even if you solve racism, sexism, poverty, and many other things that DeBoer repeatedly reminds us have not been solved, you'll just get people succeeding or failing based on natural talent. DeBoer agrees conservatives can be satisfied with this, but thinks leftists shouldn't be. Natural talent is just as unearned as class, race, or any other unfair advantage.

One one level, the titular Cult Of Smart is just the belief that enough education can solve any problem. But more fundamentally it's also the troubling belief that after we jettison unfair theories of superiority based on skin color, sex, and whatever else, we're finally left with what really determines your value as a human being - how smart you are. DeBoer recalls hearing an immigrant mother proudly describe her older kid's achievements in math, science, etc, "and then her younger son ran by, and she said, offhand, 'This one, he is maybe not so smart.'" DeBoer was originally shocked to hear someone describe her own son that way, then realized that he wouldn't have thought twice if she'd dismissed him as unathletic, or bad at music. Intelligence is considered such a basic measure of human worth that to dismiss someone as unintelligent seems like consigning them into the outer darkness. So DeBoer describes how early readers of his book were scandalized by the insistence on genetic differences in intelligence - isn't this denying the equality of Man, declaring some people inherently superior to others? Only if you conflate intelligence with worth, which DeBoer argues our society does constantly. It starts with parents buying Baby Einstein tapes and trying to send their kids to the best preschool, continues through the "meat grinder" of the college admissions process when everyone knows that whoever gets into Harvard is better than whoever gets into State U, and continues when the meritocracy rewards the straight-A Harvard student with a high-paying powerful job and the high school dropout with drudgery or unemployment. Even the phrase "high school dropout" has an aura of personal failure about it, in a way totally absent from "kid who always lost at Little League".

DeBoer isn't convinced this is an honest mistake. He draws attention to a sort of meta-class-war - a war among class warriors over whether the true enemy is the top 1% (this is the majority position) or the top 20% (this is DeBoer's position; if you've read Staying Classy, you'll immediately recognize this disagreement as the same one that divided the Church and UR models of class). The 1% are the Buffetts and Bezoses of the world; the 20% are the "managerial" class of well-off urban professionals, bureaucrats, creative types, and other mandarins. Opposition to the 20% is usually right-coded; describe them as "woke coastal elites who dominate academia and the media", and the Trump campaign ad almost writes itself. But some Marxists flirt with it too; the book references Elizabeth Currid-Halkett's Theory Of The Aspirational Class, and you can hear echoes of this every time Twitter socialists criticize "Vox liberals" or something. Access to the 20% is gated by college degree, and their legitimizing myth is that their education makes them more qualified and humane than the rest of us. DeBoer thinks the deification of school-achievement-compatible intelligence as highest good serves their class interest; "equality of opportunity" means we should ignore all other human distinctions in favor of the one that our ruling class happens to excel at.

So maybe equality of opportunity is a stupid goal. DeBoer argues for equality of results. This is a pretty extreme demand, but he's a Marxist and he means what he says. He wants a world where smart people and dull people have equally comfortable lives, and where intelligence can take its rightful place as one of many virtues which are nice to have but not the sole measure of your worth.

...but he realizes that destroying capitalism is a tall order, so he also includes some "moderate" policy prescriptions we can work on before the Revolution. First, universal childcare and pre-K; he freely admits that this will not affect kids' academic abilities one whit, but thinks they're the right thing to do in order to relieve struggling children and families. Second, lower the legal dropout age to 12, so students who aren't getting anything from school don't have to keep banging their heads against it, and so schools don't have to cook the books to pretend they're meeting standards. Third, lower standards for graduation, so that children who realistically aren't smart enough to learn algebra (it's algebra in particular surprisingly often!) can still get through. Fourth, burn all charter schools (he doesn't actually say "burn", but you can tell he fantasizes about it). And fifth, make it so that you no longer need a college degree to succeed in the job market.

(the astute among you will notice this last one is more of a wish than a policy - don't blame me, I'm just the reviewer).

II.

I'm Freddie's ideological enemy, which means I have to respect him. And there's a lot to like about this book. I think its two major theses - that intelligence is mostly innate, and that this is incompatible with equating it to human value - are true, important, and poorly appreciated by the general population. I tried to make a somewhat similar argument in my Parable Of The Talents, which DeBoer graciously quotes in his introduction. Some of the book's peripheral theses - that a lot of education science is based on fraud, that US schools are not declining in quality, etc - are also true, fascinating, and worth spreading. Overall, I think this book does more good than harm.

It's also rambling, self-contradictory in places, and contains a lot of arguments I think are misguided or bizarre.

The Part About Meritocracy

I've complained about this before, but I can't review this book without returning to it: deBoer's view of meritocracy is bizarre. The overall picture one gets is of Society telling a new college graduate "I see you got all A's in Harvard, which means you have proven yourself a good person. To reward you for your virtue, I grant you the coveted high-paying job of Surgeon." Think I'm exaggerating? He writes (not in this book, from a different article):

I reject meritocracy because I reject the idea of human deserts. I don’t believe that an individual’s material conditions should be determined by what he or she “deserves,” no matter the criteria and regardless of the accuracy of the system contrived to measure it. I believe an equal best should be done for all people at all times. More practically, I believe that anything resembling an accurate assessment of what someone deserves is impossible, inevitably drowned in a sea of confounding variables, entrenched advantage, genetic and physiological tendencies, parental influence, peer effects, random chance, and the conditions under which a person labors. To reflect on the immateriality of human deserts is not a denial of choice; it is a denial of self-determination. Reality is indifferent to meritocracy’s perceived need to “give people what they deserve.”

At the time, I noted that meritocracy has nothing to do with this. The intuition behind meritocracy is: if your life depends on a difficult surgery, would you prefer the hospital hire a surgeon who aced medical school, or a surgeon who had to complete remedial training to barely scrape by with a C-? If you prefer the former, you’re a meritocrat with respect to surgeons. Generalize a little, and you have the argument for being a meritocrat everywhere else.

The above does away with any notions of "desert", but I worry it's still accepting too many of DeBoer's assumptions. A better description might be: Your life depends on a difficult surgery. You can hire whatever surgeon you want to perform it. You are willing to pay more money for a surgeon who aced medical school than for a surgeon who failed it. So higher intelligence leads to more money.

This not only does away with "desert", but also with reified Society deciding who should prosper. More meritorious surgeons get richer not because "Society" has selected them to get rich as a reward for virtue, but because individuals pursuing their incentives prefer, all else equal, not to die of botched surgeries. Meritocracy isn't an -ocracy like democracy or autocracy, where people in wigs sit down to frame a constitution and decide how things should work. It's a dubious abstraction over the fact that people prefer to have jobs done well rather than poorly, and use their financial and social clout to make this happen.

The Part About Reform Not Working

The book sort of equivocates a little between "education cannot be improved" and "you can't improve education an infinite amount".

DeBoer admits you can improve education a little; for example, he cites a study showing that individualized tutoring has an effect size of 0.4. Although he is a little coy about the implications, he refers to several studies showing that having more intelligent teachers improves student outcomes. Also, everyone who's ever been in school knows that there are good teachers and bad ones. So even if education can never eliminate all differences between students, surely you can make schools better or worse. And surely making them better is important - not because it will change anyone's relative standings in the rat race, but because educated people have more opportunities for self-development and more opportunities to contribute to society.

I think DeBoer would argue he's not against improving schools. He just thinks all attempts to do it so far have been crooks and liars pillaging the commons, so much so that we need a moratorium on this kind of thing until we can figure out what's going on. But I'm worried that his arguments against existing school reform are in some cases kind of weak.

DeBoer does make things hard for himself by focusing on two of the most successful charter school experiments. If he'd been a little less honest, he could have passed over these and instead mentioned the many charter schools that fail, or just sort of plod onward doing about as well as public schools do. I think the closest thing to a consensus right now is that most charter schools do about the same as public schools for white/advantaged students, and slightly better than public schools for minority/disadvantaged students. But DeBoer very virtuously thinks it's important to confront his opponents' strongest cases, so these are the ones I'll focus on here.

Success Academy is a chain of New York charter schools with superficially amazing results. They take the worst-off students - "76% of students are less advantaged and 94% are minorities" - and achieve results better than the ritziest schools in the best neighborhoods - it ranked "in the top 1% of New York state schools in math, and in the top 3% for reading" - while spending "as much as $3000 to $4000 less per child per year than their public school counterparts." Its supporters credit it with showing "what you can accomplish when you are free from the regulations and mindsets that have taken over education, and do things in a different way.”

DeBoer will have none of it. He thinks they're cooking the books by kicking out lower-performing students in a way public schools can't do, leaving them with a student body heavily-selected for intelligence. Any remaining advantage is due to "teacher tourism", where ultra-bright Ivy League grads who want a "taste of the real world" go to teach at private schools for a year or two before going into their permanent career as consultants or something. This would work - many studies show that smarter teachers make students learn more (though this specifically means high-IQ teachers; making teachers get more credentials has no effect). But it doesn't scale (there are only so many Ivy League grads willing to accept low salaries for a year or two in order to have a fun time teaching children), and it only works in places like New York (Ivy League grads would not go to North Dakota no matter how fun a time they were promised).

I'm not sure I share this perspective. Success Academy isn't just cooking the books - you would test for that using a randomized trial with intention-to-treat analysis. The one that I found is small-n, short timescale, and a little ambiguous, but I think basically supports the contention that there's something there beyond selection bias. Teacher tourism might be a factor, but hardly justifies DeBoer's "charter schools are frauds, shut them down" perspective. Even if Success Academy's results are 100% because of teacher tourism, they found a way to educate thousands of extremely disadvantaged minority kids to a very high standard at low cost, a way public schools had previously failed to exploit. That's not "cheating", it's something exciting that we should celebrate. If it doesn't scale, it doesn't scale, but maybe the same search process that found this particular way can also find other ways? Surely it doesn't seem like the obvious next step is to ban anyone else from even trying?

And we only have DeBoer's assumption that all of this is teacher tourism. Success Academy itself claims that they have lots of innovative teaching methods and a different administrative culture. If this explains even 10% of their results, spreading it to other schools would be enough to make the US rocket up the PISA rankings and become an unparalleled educational powerhouse. I'm not claiming to know for sure that this is true, but not even being curious about this seems sort of weird; wanting to ban stuff like Success Academy so nobody can ever study it again doubly so.

DeBoer's second tough example is New Orleans. Hurricane Katrina destroyed most of their schools, forcing the city to redesign their education system from the ground up. They decided to go a 100% charter school route, and it seemed to be very successful. Unlike Success Academy, this can't be selection bias (it was every student in the city), and you can't argue it doesn't scale (it scaled to an entire city!). But DeBoer writes:

After Hurricane Katrina, the neoliberal powers that be took advantage of a crisis (as they always do) to enforce their agenda. The schools in New Orleans were transformed into a 100% charter system, and reformers were quick to crow about improved test scores, the only metric for success they recognize. Whether these gains stand up to scrutiny is debatable. But even if these results hold, the notion of using New Orleans as a model for other school districts is absurd on its face. When we make policy decisions, we want to isolate variables and compare like with like, to whatever degree possible. The story of New Orleans makes this impossible. Katrina changed everything in the city, where 100,000 of the city's poorest residents were permanently displaced. The civic architecture of the city was entirely rebuilt. Billions of dollars of public and private money poured in. An army of do-gooders arrived to try to save the city, willing to work for lower wages than they would ordinarily accept. How could these massive overall social changes possibly be replicated elsewhere? And how could we have any faith that adopting the New Orleans schooling system - without the massive civic overhaul - would replicate the supposed advantages?

These are good points, and I would accept them from anyone other than DeBoer, who will go on to say in a few chapters that the solution to our education issues is a Marxist revolution that overthrows capitalism and dispenses with the very concept of economic value. If he's willing to accept a massive overhaul of everything, that's failed every time it's tried, why not accept a much smaller overhaul-of-everything, that's succeeded at least once? There are plenty of billionaires willing to pour fortunes into reforming various cities - DeBoer will go on to criticize them as deluded do-gooders a few chapters later. If billions of dollars plus a serious commitment to ground-up reform are what we need, let's just spend billions of dollars and have a serious commitment to ground-up reform! If more hurricanes is what it takes to fix education, I'm willing to do my part by leaving my air conditioner on 'high' all the time.

I also have a more fundamental piece of criticism: even if charter schools' test scores were exactly the same as public schools', I think they would be more morally acceptable. I'll talk more about this at the end of the post.

The Part About Race

DeBoer spends several impassioned sections explaining how opposed he is to scientific racism, and arguing that the belief that individual-level IQ differences are partly genetic doesn't imply a belief that group-level IQ differences are partly genetic. Some reviewers of this book are still suspicious, wondering if he might be hiding his real position. I can assure you he is not. Seriously, he talks about how much he hates belief in genetic group-level IQ differences about thirty times per page. Also, sometimes when I write posts about race, he sends me angry emails ranting about how much he hates that some people believe in genetic group-level IQ differences - totally private emails nobody else will ever see. I have no reason to doubt that his hatred of this is as deep as he claims.

But I understand why some reviewers aren't convinced. This book can't stop tripping over itself when it tries to discuss these topics. DeBoer grants X, he grants X -> Y, then goes on ten-page rants about how absolutely loathsome and abominable anyone who believes Y is.

Remember, one of the theses of this book is that individual differences in intelligence are mostly genetic. But DeBoer spends only a little time citing the studies that prove this is true. He (correctly) decides that most of his readers will object not on the scientific ground that they haven't seen enough studies, but on the moral ground that this seems to challenge the basic equality of humankind. He (correctly) points out that this is balderdash, that innate differences in intelligence don't imply differences in moral value, any more than innate differences in height or athletic ability or anything like that imply differences in moral value. His goal is not just to convince you about the science, but to convince you that you can believe the science and still be an okay person who respects everyone and wants them to be happy.

He could have written a chapter about race that reinforced this message. He could have reviewed studies about whether racial differences in intelligence are genetic or environmental, come to some conclusion or not, but emphasized that it doesn't matter, and even if it's 100% genetic it has no bearing at all on the need for racial equality and racial justice, that one race having a slightly higher IQ than another doesn't make them "superior" any more than Pygmies' genetic short stature makes them "inferior".

Instead he - well, I'm not really sure what he's doing. He starts by says racial differences must be environmental. Then he says that studies have shown that racial IQ gaps are not due to differences in income/poverty, because the gaps remain even after controlling for these. But, he says, there could be other environmental factors aside from poverty that cause racial IQ gaps. After tossing out some possibilities, he concludes that he doesn't really need to be able to identify a plausible mechanism, because "white supremacy touches on so many aspects of American life that it's irresponsible to believe we have adequately controlled for it", no matter how many studies we do or how many confounders we eliminate. His argument, as far as I can tell, is that it's always possible that racial IQ differences are environmental, therefore they must be environmental. Then he goes on to, at great length, denounce as loathsome and villainous anyone who might suspect these gaps of being genetic. Such people are "noxious", "bigoted", "ugly", "pseudoscientific" "bad people" who peddle "propaganda" to "advance their racist and sexist agenda". (But tell us what you really think!)

Earlier this week, I objected when a journalist dishonestly spliced my words to imply I supported Charles Murray's The Bell Curve. Some people wrote me to complain that I handled this in a cowardly way - I showed that the specific thing the journalist quoted wasn’t a reference to The Bell Curve, but I never answered the broader question of what I thought of the book. They demanded I come out and give my opinion openly. Well, the most direct answer is that I've never read it. But that's kind of cowardly too - I've read papers and articles making what I assume is the same case. So what do I think of them?

This is far enough from my field that I would usually defer to expert consensus, but all the studies I can find which try to assess expert consensus seem crazy. A while ago, I freaked out upon finding a study that seemed to show most expert scientists in the field agreed with Murray's thesis in 1987 - about three times as many said the gap was due to a combination of genetics and environment as said it was just environment. Then I freaked out again when I found another study (here is the most recent version, from 2020) showing basically the same thing (about four times as many say it’s a combination of genetics and environment compared to just environment). I can't find any expert surveys giving the expected result that they all agree this is dumb and definitely 100% environment and we can move on (I'd be very relieved if anybody could find those, or if they could explain why the ones I found were fake studies or fake experts or a biased sample, or explain how I'm misreading them or that they otherwise shouldn't be trusted. If you have thoughts on this, please send me an email). I've vacillated back and forth on how to think about this question so many times, and right now my personal probability estimate is "I am still freaking out about this, go away go away go away". And I understand I have at least two potentially irresolveable biases on this question: one, I'm a white person in a country with a long history of promoting white supremacy; and two, if I lean in favor then everyone will hate me, and use it as a bludgeon against anyone I have ever associated with, and I will die alone in a ditch and maybe deserve it. So the best I can do is try to route around this issue when considering important questions. This is sometimes hard, but the basic principle is that I'm far less sure of any of it than I am sure that all human beings are morally equal and deserve to have a good life and get treated with respect regardless of academic achievement.

(Hopefully I’ve given people enough ammunition against me that they won’t have to use hallucinatory ammunition in the future. If you target me based on this, please remember that it’s entirely a me problem and other people tangentially linked to me are not at fault.)

That last sentence about the basic principle is the thesis of The Cult Of Smart, so it would have been a reasonable position for DeBoer to take too. DeBoer doesn't take it. He acknowledges the existence of expert scientists who believe the differences are genetic (he names Linda Gottfredson in particular), but only to condemn them as morally flawed for asserting this.

But this is exactly the worldview he is, at this very moment, trying to write a book arguing against! His thesis is that mainstream voices say there can't be genetic differences in intelligence among individuals, because that would make some people fundamentally inferior to others, which is morally repugnant - but those voices are wrong, because differences in intelligence don't affect moral equality. Then he adds that mainstream voices say there can't be genetic differences in intelligence among ethnic groups, because that would make some groups fundamentally inferior to others, which is morally repugnant - and those voices are right; we must deny the differences lest we accept the morally repugnant thing.

Normally I would cut DeBoer some slack and assume this was some kind of Straussian manuever he needed to do to get the book published, or to prevent giving ammunition to bad people. But no, he has definitely believed this for years, consistently, even while being willing to offend basically anybody about basically anything else at any time. So I'm convinced this is his true belief. I'm just not sure how he squares it with the rest of his book.

(Feel free to talk about the rest of the review, or about what DeBoer is doing here, but I will ban anyone who uses the comment section here to explicitly discuss the object-level question of race and IQ.)

The Part About Social Mobility Not Mattering Because It Doesn't Produce Equality

DeBoer is skeptical of the idea of education as a "leveller". Instead, he thinks it just produces another hierarchy - maybe one based on intelligence rather than whatever else, but a hierarchy nonetheless. He scoffs at a goal of "social mobility", pointing out that rearranging the hierarchy doesn't make it any less hierarchical:

I confess I have never understood the attraction to social mobility that is common to progressives. Mobility, after all, says nothing about the underlying overall conditions of people within the system, only their movement within it. From that standpoint the question is still zero sum. What is the moral utility of increased social mobility (more people rising up and sliding down in the socioeconomic sorting system) from a progressive perpsective? For conservatives, at least, there's a hope that a high level of social mobility provides incentives for each person to maximize their talents and, in doing so, both reap pecuniary rewards and provide benefits to society. This makes sense if you presume, as conservatives do, that people excel only in the pursuit of self-interest.

The appeal for the left is much harder to sort out. Why should we want more movement, as opposed to a higher floor for material conditions - and with it, a necessarily lower ceiling, as we take from the top to fund the social programs that establish that floor? Individual people (particularly those who think of themselves as talented) might surely prefer higher social mobility because they want to ascend up the ladder of reward. But why would society favor the interests of the person who moves up to a new perch in the 1 percent over the interests of the person who was born there? Why should we celebrate the downward mobility into hardship and poverty for some that is necessary for upward mobility into middle-class security for others?

As a leftist, I understand the appeal of tearing down those at the top, on an emotional and symbolic level. But if we're simply replacing them with a new set of winners lording it over the rest of us, we're running in place...as a socialist I see no reason to desire mobility qua mobility at all.

This is a compelling argument. But it accidentally proves too much. If white supremacists wanted to make a rule that only white people could hold high-paying positions, on what grounds (besides symbolic ones) could DeBoer oppose them? After all, there would still be the same level of hierarchy (high-paying vs. low-paying positions), whether or not access to the high-paying positions were gated by race. It seems like rejecting segregation of this sort requires some consideration of social mobility as an absolute good.

I think I would reject it on three grounds. First, the same argument I used for meritocracy above: everyone gains by having more competent people in top positions, whether it's a surgeon who can operate more safely, an economist who can more effectively prevent recessions, or a scientist who can discover more new cures for diseases. Social mobility allows people to be sorted into the positions they are most competent for, and increases the general competence level of society. I don't think this is a small effect - consider the difference between competent vs. incompetent teachers, doctors, and lawmakers. I don't know if this is what DeBoer is dismissing as the conservative perspective, but it just seems uncontroversially true to me.

Second, social mobility does indirectly increase equality. Spreading success across a semi-random cross-section of the population helps ensure the fruits of success get distributed more evenly across families, groups, and areas. A world in which one randomly selected person from each neighborhood gets a million dollars will be a more equal world than one where everyone in Beverly Hills has a million dollars but nobody else does. Many more people will have successful friends or family members to learn from, borrow from, or mooch off of. More schools and neighborhoods will have "local boy made good" type people who will donate to them and support them. I don't think this one is a small effect either - a lot of "structural racism" comes from white people having social networks full of successful people to draw on, and black people not having this, producing cross-race inequality. If high positions were distributed evenly by race, this would be better for black people, including the black people who did not get the high positions.

Third, some kind of non-consequentialist aesthetic ground that's hard to explain. Even ignoring the effect on social sorting and the effect on equality, the idea that someone's not allowed to go to college or whatever because they're the wrong caste or race or whatever just makes me really angry. It is weird for a liberal/libertarian to have to insist to a socialist that equality can sometimes be an end in itself, but I am prepared to insist on this. Even if it doesn't help a single person get any richer, I feel like it's a terminal good that people have the opportunity to use their full potential, beyond my ability to explain exactly why.

The Part About There Being A Cult Of Smart

"Smart" equivocates over two concepts - high-IQ and successful-at-formal-education. These concepts are related; in general, high-IQ people get better grades, graduate from better colleges, etc. But they're not exactly the same.

There is a cult of successful-at-formal-education. Society obsesses over how important formal education is, how it can do anything, how it's going to save the world. If you get gold stars on your homework, become the teacher's pet, earn good grades in high school, and get into an Ivy League, the world will love you for it.

But the opposite is true of high-IQ. Society obsessively denies that IQ can possibly matter. Admit to being a member of Mensa, and you'll get a fusillade of "IQ is just a number!" and "people who care about their IQ are just overcompensating for never succeeding at anything real!" and "IQ doesn't matter, what about emotional IQ or grit or whatever else, huh? Bet you didn't think of that!" Science writers and Psychology Today columnists vomit out a steady stream of bizarre attempts to deny the statistical validity of IQ.

These are two sides of the same phenomenon. Some people are smarter than others as adults, and the more you deny innate ability, the more weight you have to put on education. Society wants to put a lot of weight on formal education, and compensates by denying innate ability a lot. DeBoer is aware of this and his book argues against it adeptly.

Still, I worry that the title - The Cult Of Smart - might lead people to think there is a cult surrounding intelligence, when exactly the opposite is true. But I guess The Cult Of Successful At Formal Education sounds less snappy, so whatever.

III.

The Cult Of Smart invites comparisons with Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education. Both use largely the same studies to argue that education doesn't do as much as we thought. Caplan very reasonably thinks maybe that means we should have less education. DeBoer...definitely doesn't think that:

As a socialist, my interest lies in expanding the degree to which the community takes responsibility each all of its members, in deepening our societal commitment to ensuring the wellbeing of everyone. One of the most profound and important ways that we've expanded the assumed responsibilities of society lies in our system of public education. Only 150 years ago, a child in the United States was not guaranteed to have access to publicly funded schooling. (Even 100 years ago it was not uncommon for a child to spend his days engaged in backbreaking physical labor.) When we as a society decided, in fits and starts and with all the usual bigotries of race and sex and class involved, to legally recognize a right for all children to an education, we fundamentally altered our culture's basic assumptions about what we owed every citizen. We did not make this profound change on the bais of altering test scores or with an eye on graduation rates or college participation. We did so out of the conviction that this suppot of children and their parents was a fundamental right no matter what the eventual outcomes might be for each student.

[DeBoer goes on to recommend universal pre-K and universal after-school childcare for K-12 students, then says:] The social benefits would be profound. For one, we'd have fewer young people on the street, fewer latchkey children forced to go home to empty apartments and houses, fewer children with nothing to do but stare at screens all day. Children who live in truly unhealthy home environments, whether because of abuse or neglect or addiction or simple poverty, would have more hours out of the day to spend in supervised safety. And the benefits to parents would be just as large. Today, many parents face an impossible choice: give up their career in order to raise young children, and lose that source of income and self-actualization, or spend potentially huge amounts of money on childcare in order to work a job that might not even pay enough to cover that care.

I try to review books in an unbiased way, without letting myself succumb to fits of emotion. So be warned: I'm going to fail with this one. I am going to get angry and write whole sentences in capital letters. This is one of the most enraging passages I've ever read.

School is child prison. It's forcing kids to spend their childhood - a happy time! a time of natural curiosity and exploration and wonder - sitting in un-air-conditioned blocky buildings, cramped into identical desks, listening to someone drone on about the difference between alliteration and assonance, desperate to even be able to fidget but knowing that if they do their teacher will yell at them, and maybe they'll get a detention that extends their sentence even longer without parole. The anti-psychiatric-abuse community has invented the "Burrito Test" - if a place won't let you microwave a burrito without asking permission, it's an institution. Doesn't matter if the name is "Center For Flourishing" or whatever and the aides are social workers in street clothes instead of nurses in scrubs - if it doesn't pass the Burrito Test, it's an institution. There is no way school will let you microwave a burrito without permission. THEY WILL NOT EVEN LET YOU GO TO THE BATHROOM WITHOUT PERMISSION. YOU HAVE TO RAISE YOUR HAND AND ASK YOUR TEACHER FOR SOMETHING CALLED "THE BATHROOM PASS" IN FRONT OF YOUR ENTIRE CLASS, AND IF SHE DOESN'T LIKE YOU, SHE CAN JUST SAY NO.

I don't like actual prisons, the ones for criminals, but I will say this for them - people keep them around because they honestly believe they prevent crime. If someone found proof-positive that prisons didn't prevent any crimes at all, but still suggested that we should keep sending people there, because it means we'd have "fewer middle-aged people on the streets" and "fewer adults forced to go home to empty apartments and houses", then MAYBE YOU WOULD START TO UNDERSTAND HOW I FEEL ABOUT SENDING PEOPLE TO SCHOOL FOR THE SAME REASON.

I sometimes sit in on child psychiatrists' case conferences, and I want to scream at them. There's the kid who locks herself in the bathroom every morning so her parents can't drag her to child prison, and her parents stand outside the bathroom door to yell at her for hours until she finally gives in and goes, and everyone is trying to medicate her or figure out how to remove the bathroom locks, and THEY ARE SOLVING THE WRONG PROBLEM. There are all the kids who had bedwetting or awful depression or constant panic attacks, and then as soon as the coronavirus caused the child prisons to shut down the kids mysteriously became instantly better. I have heard stories of kids bullied to the point where it would be unfair not to call it torture, and the child prisons respond according to Procedures which look very good on paper and hit all the right We-Are-Taking-This-Seriously buzzwords but somehow never result in the kids not being tortured every day, and if the kids' parents were to stop bringing them to child prison every day to get tortured anew the cops would haul those parents to jail, and sometimes the only solution is the parents to switch them to the charter schools THAT FREDDIE DEBOER WANTS TO SHUT DOWN.

I see people on Twitter and Reddit post their stories from child prison, all of which they treat like it's perfectly normal. The district that wanted to save money, so it banned teachers from turning the heat above 50 degrees in the depths of winter. The district that decided running was an unsafe activity, and so any child who ran or jumped or played other-than-sedately during recess would get sent to detention - yeah, that's fine, let's just make all our children spent the first 18 years of their life somewhere they're not allowed to run, that'll be totally normal child development. You might object that they can run at home, but of course teachers assign three hours of homework a day despite ample evidence that homework does not help learning. Preventing children from having any free time, or the ability to do any of the things they want to do seems to just be an end in itself. Every single doctor and psychologist in the world has pointed out that children and teens naturally follow a different sleep pattern than adults, probably closer to 12 PM to 9 AM than the average adult's 10 - 7. Child prisons usually start around 7 or 8 AM, meaning any child who shows up on time is necessarily sleep-deprived in ways that probably harm their health and development.

School forces children to be confined in an uninhabitable environment, restrained from moving, and psychologically tortured in a state of profound sleep deprivation, under pain of imprisoning their parents if they refuse. The only possible justification for this is that it achieves some kind of vital social benefit like eliminating poverty. If it doesn't, you might as well replace it with something less traumatizing, like child labor. The kid will still have to spend eight hours of their day toiling in a terrible environment, but at least they’ll get some pocket money! At least their boss can't tell them to keep working off the clock under the guise of "homework"! I have worked as a medical resident, widely considered one of the most horrifying and abusive jobs it is possible to take in a First World country. I can say with absolute confidence that I would gladly do another four years of residency if the only alternative was another four years of high school.

If I have children, I hope to be able to homeschool them. But if I can't homeschool them, I am incredibly grateful that the option exists to send them to a charter school that might not have all of these problems. I'm not as impressed with Montessori schools as some of my friends are, but at least as far as I can tell they let kids wander around free-range, and don't make them use bathroom passes. DeBoer not only wants to keep the whole prison-cum-meat-grinder alive and running, even after having proven it has no utility, he also wants to shut the only possible escape my future children will ever get unless I'm rich enough to quit work and care for them full time.

When I try to keep a cooler head about all of this, I understand that Freddie DeBoer doesn't want this. He is not a fan of freezing-cold classrooms or sleep deprivation or bullying or bathroom passes. In fact, he will probably blame all of these on the "neoliberal reformers" (although I went to school before most of the neoliberal reforms started, and I saw it all). He will say that his own utopian schooling system has none of this stuff. In fact, he does say that. He sketches what a future Marxist school system might look like, and it looks pretty much like a Montessori school looks now. That just makes it really weird that he wants to shut down all the schools that resemble his ideal today (or make them only available to the wealthy) in favor of forcing kids into schools about as different from it as it's possible for anything to be.

I am so, so tired of socialists who admit that the current system is a helltopian torturescape, then argue that we must prevent anyone from ever being able to escape it. Who promise that once the last alternative is closed off, once the last nice green place where a few people manage to hold off the miseries of the world is crushed, why then the helltopian torturescape will become a lovely utopia full of rainbows and unicorns. If you can make your system less miserable, make your system less miserable! Do it before forcing everyone else to participate in it under pain of imprisonment if they refuse! Forcing everyone to participate in your system and then making your system something other than a meat-grinder that takes in happy children and spits out dead-eyed traumatized eighteen-year-olds who have written 10,000 pages on symbolism in To Kill A Mockingbird and had zero normal happy experiences - is doing things super, super backwards!

I don't have great solutions to the problems with the educational system. I am less convinced than deBoer is that it doesn't teach children useful things they will need in order to succeed later in life, so I can't in good conscience justify banning all schools (this is also how I feel about prison abolition - I'm too cowardly to be 100% comfortable with eliminating baked-in institutions, no matter how horrible, until I know the alternative).

But I think I would start with harm reduction. The average district spends $12,000 per pupil per year on public schools (up to $30,000 in big cities!) How many parents would be able to give their children a safe, accepting home environment if they got even a fraction of that money? If they could get $12,000 - $30,000 to stay home and help teach their kid, how many working parents might decide they didn't have to take that second job in order to make ends meet? How many kids stuck in dystopian after-school institutions might be able to spend that time with their families, or playing with friends? Or if they want to spend their entire childhood sitting in front of a screen playing Civilization 2, at least consider letting them spend their entire childhood in front of a screen playing Civilization 2 (I turned out okay!)

Some parents wouldn't feel up to teaching their kids, or would prove incompetent at it, and I would support letting those parents send their kids to school if they wanted (maybe all kids have to pass a basic proficiency test at some age, and go to school if they fail). I would want society to experiment with how short school could be and still have students learn what they needed to know, as opposed to our current strategy of experimenting with how long school can be and still have students stay sane. Did you know that when a superintendent experimented with teaching no math at all before Grade 7, by 8th grade those students knew exactly as much math as kids who had learned math their whole lives? Sure, cut out the provably-useless three hours a day of homework, but I don't think we've even begun to explore how short and efficient school can be. Obviously I would want this system to be entirely made of charter schools, so that children and parents can check which ones aren't abusive and prefentially go to those.

(if we ever figure out how to teach kids things, I'm also okay using these efficiency gains to teach children more stuff, rather than to shorten the school day, but I must insist we figure out how to teach kids things first.)

If parents had no interest in having their kids at home, and kids had no interest in being at home, I would be happy with the government funding afterschool daycare for those kids, as long as this is no more abusive on average than eg child labor (for example, if children were laboring they would be allowed to choose what company to work for, so I would insist they be allowed to choose their daycare). But as with all institutions, I would want it to be considered a fall-back for rare cases with no better options, much like how nursing homes are only for seniors who don't have anyone else to take care of them and can't take care of themselves. It shouldn't be the default first option.

I think people would be surprised how much children would learn in an environment like this. Certainly it is hard to deny that public school does anything other than crush learning - I have too many bad memories of teachers yelling at me for reading in school, or for peeking ahead in the textbook, to doubt that. I don't think totally unstructured learning is optimal for kids - I don't even think Montessori-style faux unstructured learning is optimal - but I think there would be a lot of room to experiment, and I think it would be better to err on the side of not getting angry at kids for trying to learn things on their own than on the side of continuing to do so.

Together, I believe we can end school. Until DeBoer is up for this, I don't think he's been fully deprogrammed from The Cult Of Successful At Formal Education (formerly known as The Cult Of Smart).

20 Feb 02:30

Study: Democratic Governors Feed the Prison-Industrial Complex

by Elizabeth Nolan Brown
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Republicans tend to get more blame than Democrats do for the terrible state of America's criminal justice system, with its overly punitive "tough-on-crime" policies and enthusiasm for mass incarceration. But new research published in Political Research Quarterly challenges this calculation. In looking at whether Democratic or Republican state leaders drive more carceral policies, Anna Gunderson—an assistant professor of political science at Louisiana State University—found that "Democratic governors who barely win their elections outspend and outincarcerate their Republican counterparts."

For her research, Gunderson examined three measures of tough-on-crime tactics—prison admission rates, overall incarceration rates, and state corrections budgets—alongside state election returns between 1982 and 2016.

In states and elections where Democratic governors only eked out a win, corrections spending rose by around $15 per capita. Gunderson also found "tentative evidence" that Democratic governors who had been in tight electoral contests increased incarceration rates and prison admissions, too.

The results highlight "Democrats' complicity in the expansion of the carceral state," Gunderson writes.

Why did electorally vulnerable Democrats get more carceral? "Democrats were afraid to look weak on crime and instead supported policies at least as punitive or even more punitive than their Republican counterparts," suggests Gunderson. They "adopted tough on crime measures to curry electoral favor and siphon voters who were voting Republican because of their crime platform."

As an example, she offers up Mario Cuomo, a Democrat (and father of current New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo) who served as governor of New York from 1983 to 1994. Cuomo "presided over a massive $7 billion prison construction program and added more prison beds to the state than all the previous governors in New York history combined," Gunderson writes. While he "once called the prison boom 'stupid,'" Cuomo changed his tune amid accusations of being soft on crime.

By now, the fact that Democrats (including President Joe Biden) were no better than their Republican counterparts about crime panic in the late 20th century is pretty well established. But Gunderson found this held true whether we're talking about the data from the '80s and '90s or from 2000–2016. For both time periods, "the results here suggest electorally vulnerable Democratic governors will prioritize punitive policies in an effort to woo voters," her paper states.

Ultimately, the results "throw a wrench into conventional understandings of the politics of punishment," suggests Gunderson. "These results suggest it is not only Democrats in particular regions or states, but all those that are facing stiff electoral competition that are pursuing these punitive policies."

01 Feb 22:12

The Anti-Money Laundering Fraud

by Alex Tabarrok
Jack

Wow

Anti-money laundering laws are hugely expensive and largely ineffective at their stated purpose.

Necessarily applying a broad brush, the current anti-money laundering policy prescription helps authorities intercept about $3 billion of an estimated $3 trillion in criminal funds generated annually (0.1 percent success rate), and costs banks and other businesses more than $300 billion in compliance costs, more than a hundred times the amounts recovered from criminals.

… If authorities recover around $3 billion per annum from criminals, whilst imposing compliance costs of $300 billion and penalizing businesses another $8 billion a year, it is reasonable to ask if the real target of anti-money laundering laws is legitimate enterprises rather than criminal enterprises.

That’s Ronald Pol from a new paper, Anti-money laundering: The world’s least effective policy experiment? Together, we can fix it.

I would add two elements. The anti-money laundering laws are also injurious to innovation in areas like cryptocurrency where privacy is a goal and there is no bank to fine or from which to demand paperwork. These laws are also a injurious to liberty as they essentially require banks to spy on their customers and report to the government and they are inconsistent with constitutional principles. The key AML laws really only date from the 1990s and should be scrapped rather than “fixed “(which I think is Pol being sly as he never suggests any real solutions.)

The post The Anti-Money Laundering Fraud appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

24 Jan 23:06

Money-maximizing macaque thieves demand ransoms

by Tyler Cowen
Jack

The monkeys seem like the main draw for visiting the temple.

At the Uluwatu temple in Bali, monkeys mean business. The long-tailed macaques who roam the ancient site are infamous for brazenly robbing unsuspecting tourists and clinging on to their possessions until food is offered as ransom payment.

Researchers have found they are also skilled at judging which items their victims value the most and using this information to maximise their profit.

Shrewd macaques prefer to target items that humans are most likely to exchange for food, such as electronics, rather than objects that tourists care less about, such as hairpins or empty camera bags, said Dr Jean-Baptiste Leca, an associate professor in the psychology department at the University of Lethbridge in Canada and lead author of the study.

Mobile phones, wallets and prescription glasses are among the high-value possessions the monkeys aim to steal. “These monkeys have become experts at snatching them from absent-minded tourists who didn’t listen to the temple staff’s recommendations to keep all valuables inside zipped handbags firmly tied around their necks and backs,” said Leca.

After spending more than 273 days filming interactions between the animals and temple visitors, researchers found that the macaques would demand better rewards – such as more food – for higher-valued items.

Bargaining between a monkey robber, tourist and a temple staff member quite often lasted several minutes. The longest wait before an item was returned was 25 minutes, including 17 minutes of negotiation. For lower-valued items, the monkeys were more likely to conclude successful bartering sessions by accepting a lesser reward.

Here is the full story, via David Curran.

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24 Jan 23:02

Corporate donations are good for political moderation

by Tyler Cowen

This article demonstrates that limits on campaign contributions—which alter a candidate’s ability to raise money from certain types of donors—affect the ideologies of legislators in office. Using an original data set of campaign contribution limits in some US states over the last 20 years, I exploit variation across and within states over time to show that higher individual contributions lead to the selection of more polarized legislators, while higher limits on contributions from political action committees (PACs) lead to the selection of more moderate legislators. Individual donors prefer to support ideologically extreme candidates while access-seeking PACs tend to support more moderate candidates. Thus, institutional changes that limit the availability of money affect the types of candidates who would normally fund-raise from these two main sources of campaign funds. These results show that the connection between donors and candidates is an important part of the story of the polarization of American politics.

That is from a new paper by Michael J. Barber.  Via Matt Grossman.

The post Corporate donations are good for political moderation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

24 Jan 22:40

Federal minimum wage of $15?

by Tyler Cowen

It’s a slam-dunk case that doubling the federal minimum wage — it’s been $7.25 since 2009 — would lead to significant declines in employment opportunities for workers with few skills or little experience. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2019 (before the pandemic), in 47 states, at least one-quarter of all workers earn less than $15 per hour. In 20 states, half of all workers earn less than $18 per hour, and in 30 states, the median hourly wage is less than $19.

These statistics show that $15 is a very high wage floor. For employers to keep all their workers would require raising the wages of a huge share of the national workforce. But the number of workers affected would be so large that this wouldn’t happen. Instead, the number of jobs in the low-wage workforce would shrink.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office confirms this basic intuition, estimating that joblessness would increase by 1.3 million if the national hourly wage floor were hiked to $15 [TC: and that is pre-pandemic]. The CBO also concluded that this policy would reduce business income, raise consumer prices and reduce gross domestic product.

That is from Michael Strain at Bloomberg.  I would add this.  No matter what you think about the recent literature on the minimum wage, all economic theories imply that minimum wages should be decided at the state and local level, given the economic heterogeneity of the United States.  That is the message that you as an economist should be carrying forward.

Do you think Puerto Rico should be a state?  Should they have a $15 minimum wage too?  Come on.  Yes, it is easy enough to make an exception for them, and by the way the median manufacturing wage in Mississippi is below $15 as well.  Rinse and repeat.

I am sorry to speak in such terms, but the reality is that an allied cabal of activists and left-wing economists have combined on social media to insist on a particular approach to minimum wage economics and to bully those who disagree.

Ask yourself a simple question: were any of them calling for a temporary two-year cut in the minimum wage for restaurants and small businesses during a devastating pandemic?  If not, are they really carrying forward the banner of science?

The post Federal minimum wage of $15? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

24 Jan 22:24

Are disenchanted Iranians turning to other faiths?

by Tyler Cowen

The spiritual gap between Iran’s Shia ayatollahs and the people they rule is widening. The strictures of the theocracy and the doctrine of Shia supremacy alienate many. So growing numbers of Iranians seem to be leaving religion or experimenting with alternatives to Shiism. Christians, Zoroastrians and Bahais all report soaring interest. Leaders of other forms of Islam speak of popular revivals. “There’s a loyalty change,” says Yaser Mirdamadi, a Shia cleric in exile. “Iranians are turning to other religions because they no longer find satisfaction in the official faith.”

…The repression isn’t working. The state says over 99.5% of Iran’s 82m people are Muslim. But its numbers are not reliable. A poll of more than 50,000 Iranians (about 90% of whom live in Iran) conducted online by Gamaan, a Dutch research group, found a country in religious flux. About half of the respondents said they had lost or changed their religion. Less than a third identified as Shia. If these numbers are even close to correct, Iran is much more diverse than its official census shows.

Here is more from The Economist.  Speculative, but interesting.

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15 Jan 03:22

Ireland fact of the day, coming soon to a state near you

by Tyler Cowen

Some experts estimate this could mean, if we do not accelerate the pace of vaccination, one million deaths for the United States.

The post Ireland fact of the day, coming soon to a state near you appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

15 Jan 03:12

Israel leads the world in vaccinations and could be done by spring

13 Jan 04:50

The end of the Swedish model

by Tyler Cowen

The government this week proposed an emergency law that would allow it to lock down large parts of society; the first recommended use of face masks came into force; and the authorities gave schools the option to close for pupils older than 13 — all changes to its strategy to combat the pandemic.

“I don’t think Sweden stands out [from the rest of the world] very much right now,” said Jonas Ludvigsson, professor of clinical epidemiology at Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm. “Most of the things that made Sweden different have changed — either in Sweden or elsewhere.”

…Sweden has reported more than 2,000 Covid-19 deaths in a month and 535 in the past eight days alone. This compares with 465 for the pandemic as a whole in neighbouring Norway, which has half the population. As Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf said just before Christmas: “We have failed.”

Here is more from the FT.  U.S. Covid deaths per day have now exceeded 4,000 for some days, and they are running at about 50% of the normal number for total daily deaths.  And no, it is not that the payments to classify these as Covid deaths have increased, rather the virus and the deaths have increased.  So the “no big deal” question we now can consider settled?  The new and more contagious strains haven’t even started playing a major role yet in the United States.

The post The end of the Swedish model appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

13 Jan 04:49

No, the GOP has not yet hit rock bottom

by ssumner
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This caught my eye:

“Many members of the House community were in protective isolation in room located in a large committee hearing space,” physician Brian Monahan said in a statement. “During this time, individuals may have been exposed to another occupant with coronavirus infection.“

While Monahan’s statement didn’t specify which room, one video showed dozens of people sheltered in place a committee room in the as a mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters stormed into the Capitol, forcing their way into the House and Senate chambers, lawmakers’ offices, and other areas.

Lots of congressmen and women, some of them quite elderly, packed in a conference room. What could go wrong?

This:

The video showed Delaware Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester offering masks to a group of Republicans, including Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Andy Biggs of Arizona, who refused to cover their faces.

The GOP has become a sort of death cult.

PS: And how about this:

A bizarre tweet from the Arizona Republican Party on Monday asked whether supporters would sacrifice their lives for President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.

The official account quote-tweeted a “Stop the Steal” right-wing activist who said he was “willing to give up my life for this fight” and added: “He is. Are you?”

These people are sick.


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12 Jan 03:29

Approve the AstraZeneca Vaccine Now!

by Alex Tabarrok

Here’s Marty Makary, M.D., a professor of surgery and health policy at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine:

Finally, the FDA needs to stop playing games and authorize the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.  It’s safe, cheap ($2-$3 a dose), and is the easiest vaccine to distribute. It does not require freezing and is already approved and being administered in the United Kingdom.

Sadly, the FDA is months away from authorizing this vaccine because FDA career staff members insisted on another clinical trial to be completed and are punishing the company for inadvertently giving a half-dose of the vaccine to some people in the trial.

It’s like the FDA is holding out, pontificating existing excellent data and being vindictive against a company for making a mistake while thousands of Americans die each day.

Ironically, those in the Oxford-AstraZeneca trial who inadvertently received half the initial vaccine dose had lower infection rates. And this week Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the chief adviser to Operation Warp Speed, acknowledged that using half a dose might be a good broader strategy for the U.S. to double our supply as long our supply is severely constrained. That’s a good strategy that makes sense.

See also my post The AstraZeneca Factory in Baltimore. Thousands of people are dying every day. We have a vaccine factory ready to go. The FDA should lifts its ban on the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The post Approve the AstraZeneca Vaccine Now! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

11 Jan 04:30

Where’s the outrage?

by ssumner
Jack

There's only so much outrage to go around right now.

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America is supposed to be a moral beacon for the world. So why so little commentary about this?

Thank God for the South China Morning Post.

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09 Jan 06:50

That was then, this is now

by Tyler Cowen

The 1954 United States Capitol shooting was an attack on March 1, 1954, by four Puerto Rican nationalists; they shot 30 rounds from semi-automatic pistols from the Ladies’ Gallery (a balcony for visitors) of the House of Representatives chamber in the United States Capitol. They wanted to highlight their desire for Puerto Rican independence from US rule.

The nationalists, identified as Lolita LebrónRafael Cancel MirandaAndres Figueroa Cordero, and Irvin Flores Rodríguez, unfurled a Puerto Rican flag and began shooting at Representatives in the 83rd Congress, who were debating an immigration bill. Five Representatives were wounded, one seriously, but all recovered. The assailants were arrested, tried and convicted in federal court, and given long sentences, effectively life imprisonment. In 1978 and 1979, they were pardoned by President Jimmy Carter; all four returned to Puerto Rico.

Here is further information.

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09 Jan 06:47

First Doses First, coming soon to a state near you…

by Tyler Cowen

Of course on this particular issue, Alex was the one who started the intellectual campaign…

The post First Doses First, coming soon to a state near you… appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

09 Jan 06:43

Winners and losers

by ssumner
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Winners:

Mitt Romney and other conservative Never-Trumpers.

CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo, etc. No, they didn’t exaggerate.

Intellectuals with TDS

Biden—He has enhanced moral authority to get things done. Recall LBJ after the Kennedy assassination.

Black Lives Matter (If you can’t see systemic racism in the kid glove treatment of that white mob, there’s nothing I can do to help you.)

Wall Street

Xi Jinping (we lose some of the moral high ground)

Losers:

Trump and his family

Cruz, Hawley, Pence and the rest of the Trump lapdogs

Fox News and the National Review

Right-wing intellectuals who claimed they focused on “the issues”, not Trump’s “bad manners”. Those who mocked Trump’s critics for being unhinged. The universities where they teach and the think tanks where they sell your services. I’ve gotten a wheelbarrow full of junk mail from these places over the past 4 years. Pathetic defenses of Trump.

A dead DC police officer and 4 dead protestors

Putin (seen by the Dems as having helped Trump get elected.)

PS. I just saw Trump’s hostage tape concession speech, and broke out laughing. He started lying 10 seconds into the speech (when he claimed that he immediately called out the National Guard), and lied all the way through.

PPS. Another day with more than 4000 reported deaths. But then Trump says the numbers are fake.

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02 Jan 20:05

Why Are US Rail Projects So Expensive?

by Jarrett

We’ve known for a long time that the US pays more than most other wealthy countries to build rapid transit lines, and especially for tunneling.  If the incoming Biden administration wants to invest more in transit construction, then it’s time to get a handle on this.

The transit researcher Alon Levy has been working on this issue for many years, has generated a helpful trove of articles is here.  Alon’s work triggered a New York Times exposé in 2017, focus on the extreme costs (over $1 billion/mile) of recent subway construction there.

But while the New York situation is the most extreme, rapid transit construction costs are persistently higher than in comparable countries in Europe, where they are tunneling through equally complex urban environments.

Now, Eno Foundation has dug into this, building a database of case studies to help define the problem.  Their top level findings:

  • Yes, US appears to spend more to build rail transit lines than comparable overseas peers.
  • This difference is mostly about the cost of tunneling, not surface lines.  The US pays far more to tunnel 1 km than Europeans do, even in cities like Rome where archaeology is a major issue.
  • Needless to say, the type of rail doesn’t matter much.  Once you leave the surface, either onto viaducts or into tunnels, any cost difference between light rail and heavy rail is swamped by the cost of those structures.  (This is true of bus viaducts and tunnels too, of course)
  • Remarkably, stations don’t seem to explain the difference in rail construction costs.  European subways with stations closer together still come out cheaper than US subways with fewer stations.

Most of us have known this for a long time — though I admit to being surprised by the last point.  But it’s good to see a respected institute like Eno building out a database to make the facts unavoidable.  If you want more rail transit in the US, it simply has to be cheaper.

The post Why Are US Rail Projects So Expensive? appeared first on Human Transit.

29 Dec 01:37

Update on the new Covid-19 strain

by Tyler Cowen

Here is a very good article with many points, here are two in particular that caught my attention:

People with a weakened immune system may give the virus this opportunity, as Gupta’s data show. More evidence comes from a paper published in The New England Journal of Medicine on 3 December that described an immunocompromised patient in Boston infected with SARS-CoV-2 for 154 days before he died. Again, the researchers found several mutations, including N501Y. “It suggests that you can get relatively large numbers of mutations happening over a relatively short period of time within an individual patient,” says William Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, one of the authors. (In patients who are infected for a few days and then clear the virus, there simply is not enough time for this, he says.) When such patients are given antibody treatments for COVID-19 late in their disease course, there may already be so many variants present that one of them is resistant, Goldstein says.

And:

These could impact the binding of the virus to human cells and also its recognition by the immune system, Farrar says. “These South African mutations I think are more worrying than the constellation of the British variant.” South African hospitals are already struggling, he adds. “We’ve always asked, ‘Why has sub-Saharan Africa escaped the pandemic to date?” Answers have focused on the relative youth of the population and the climate. “Maybe if you just increase transmission a bit, that is enough to get over these factors,” Farrar says.

Developing…the speed premium of course is rising…

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