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01 Mar 19:01

That was then, this is now — pandemic response capabilities

by Tyler Cowen

From 2005:

Before adjourning last week, the US Senate passed and sent to President Bush a bill providing $3.8 billion for pandemic influenza preparedness and a controversial liability shield for those who produce and administer drugs and vaccines used in a declared public health emergency.

The preparedness funding and liability protection were part of the fiscal year 2006 defense spending bill passed by the Senate on the evening of Dec 21. The bill had cleared the House 2 days earlier.

The $3.8 billion for pandemic preparedness is a little more than half of the $7.1 billion Bush had requested in early November. House Republican leaders said last week the measure would fund roughly the fiscal year 2006 portion of Bush’s request.

As reported previously, the amount includes $350 million to improve state and local preparedness and directs the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to use most of the rest on “core preparedness activities,” including increasing vaccine production capacity, developing vaccines, and stockpiling antiviral drugs.

The liability provision offers broad legal protection for the makers of drugs, vaccines, and other medical “countermeasures” used when the HHS secretary declares an emergency. The provision says people claiming injury from a medical countermeasure can sue only if they prove “willful misconduct” by those who made or administered it. The bill calls for Congress to set up a compensation program for injuries, but it provides no funds for that purpose.

…But Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., and some other Democrats, along with consumer groups such as Public Citizen, derided the liability provision as a giveaway to the drug industry.

I am pleased to have argued for this in the time period leading up to this legislation, let us continue to hope we do not need it.

The post That was then, this is now — pandemic response capabilities appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

24 Feb 21:29

We need more immigrants, get over it.

by ssumner
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Trump’s chief of staff is at it again. A few months back he told a stunned press conference that of course there was a quid pro quo in the pressure put on Ukraine, and that reporters just needed to “get over it”.

Now he stunned a crowd in England:

Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney told a crowd at a private gathering in England on Wednesday night that the Trump administration “needs more immigrants” for the U.S. economy to continue growing, according to an audio recording of his remarks obtained by The Washington Post.

“We are desperate — desperate — for more people,” Mulvaney said. “We are running out of people to fuel the economic growth that we’ve had in our nation over the last four years. We need more immigrants.”

LOL

HT:  David Beckworth

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24 Feb 20:27

A Sailor Moon makeup line has finally launched - CNET

by Corinne Reichert
Jack

Finally...

Sailor Guardians unite for this glittery, starry set from US cosmetics company Colourpop.
23 Feb 03:34

Are the US and the UK political systems converging?

[The ideas in this post are tentative, so please correct me on any errors regarding the UK political system.]

As an outsider, the parliamentary system in the UK always seemed quite different from the US system, mostly due to the different roles of the president of the US and the prime minister of the UK. In the UK, voters elect a party, or a coalition of parties, and the party elects a leader. The leader would sometimes be changed in midstream if things were not going well.

In the US, maverick politicians such as Goldwater and McGovern could almost “hijack” their parties, and take control against the wishes of the party establishment. Trump and Sanders are more recent examples of maverick politicians.

In the UK, ordinary party members (i.e. voters) have recently been given increasing clout in the selection of leadership. Corbyn staged a sort of internal coup with grassroots support, taking control of the Labour Party against the wishes of many Labour MPs. Boris Johnson is somewhat more mainstream, but did oppose party leadership on Brexit. Increasingly, the Conservatives seem to be being reshaped to reflect their leadership, rather than vice versa. UK voters increasingly are choosing between people like Corbyn and Johnson, rather than Labour vs. Conservatives.

In contrast, US voters are much more attached to their party in presidential votes than when I was young. But in both countries, blue-collar voters in smaller cities are moving right, and highly educated voters in bigger cities are moving left.

Many Americans prefer our three-branch system of government, with all its “checks and balances.” One often hears the suggestion that the UK government is little more than an “elected dictatorship”. But based on what I’ve read, the UK government is gradually becoming a bit less of an elected dictatorship, as the British courts are increasingly likely to push back against a government initiative.

Meanwhile, the US president is increasingly becoming an “elected dictator”:

When the Pentagon announced this month that it would divert billions more dollars in military funding to the construction of President Donald Trump’s border wall, bipartisan outrage ricocheted across Capitol Hill.

Republicans and Democrats alike issued fiery statements in defense of both their congressional districts, some of which stand to lose valuable work making military equipment, and their constitutionally enshrined power of the purse. But the howls of protest are unlikely to amount to much in a Congress where lawmakers — many of whom once prized their spending prerogatives almost above all else — acknowledge their power to steer federal dollars has been severely eroded.

The dysfunction has taken hold in large part because of decisions that members of Congress themselves have made. But it has become particularly pronounced under Trump, who has moved aggressively to divert government money when it suits his agenda.

“Congress’ appropriation power, which is pretty much the last unchallenged power that Congress has, has very significantly eroded,” said Sean Kelly, a professor of political science at California State University Channel Islands.

The root of the problem predates Trump.

That final sentence is important.  Although I am strongly opposed to certain authoritarian tendencies in the Trump administration, it’s important to note that this has been going on for years, and recent events are merely an acceleration of trends that began at least as far back as WWI.

Here’s a tentative hypothesis.  In a globalized world, countries like the US and UK are buffeted by similar forces, involving changes in everything from technology to cultural norms.  Over time, they gradually evolve in the same way.  If the US Constitution seems to prevent our system from resembling another, then those constitutional restraints will be sort of brushed away.  Don’t count on our Constitution to protect us from an elected dictatorship:

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

That train’s already left the station.  The US Constitution says Congress declares war, Congress sets tariff rates, Congress votes on spending money for a wall.  There is no taking of land except for public purposes. Those traditions have all been brushed aside.

PS.  This also fits in with the famous “end of history” hypothesis.  Increasingly, it seems that all over the world the debate over fundamental questions has ended, and it’s now a question of which elected dictator will be chosen.  You have Putin, Erdogan, Modi, Abe, Orban, Duterte, etc.  If China ever became a democracy, I wonder if they’d elect a dictator like Xi Jinping?  Is China really that different from India?  A 1984-style surveillance state is being created almost everywhere.

No one knew it at the time, but Silvio Berlusconi and his farcical party entitled “Forza Italia” was the canary in the coal mine for global democracy.  Berlusconi took control of Italian media, and then the entire country.

(11 COMMENTS)
19 Feb 23:04

California Politicians Double Down on Encouraging People To Live in Wildfire-Prone Areas

by Christian Britschgi

California's wildfires are getting deadlier and more destructive each year. Naturally then, state politicians want to make it easier to get insurance in fire-prone areas.

On Tuesday, Assemblymembers Lorena Gonzalez (D–San Diego) and Monique Limon (D–Santa Barbara) introduced Assembly Bill (A.B.) 2367. Their "Renew California" bill would require that insurance companies write new policies or indefinitely renew current ones for existing homes provided they meet yet-to-be-determined state standards for fire-hardening.

Roughly one million homes in wildfire-affected areas are already covered by a one-year moratorium on non-renewals issued by the state's elected insurance commissioner, Ricardo Lara, in December 2019. Lara has endorsed A.B. 2367.

Both the current moratorium and Tuesday's bill are meant to combat the rising trend of insurance companies refusing to renew policies in wildfire-prone areas. Data from the state's Department of Insurance shows that non-renewals have risen by 10 percent in counties affected by 2015 and 2017 wildfires.

"Homeowners who have done all the right things, hardening their homes and mitigating for fire danger, are still seeing their insurance canceled or non-renewed," said Gonzalez in a press release. "We can't allow insurance companies to continue to drop responsible homeowners from San Diego to the Sierras just because they can."

It's possible insurance companies are dropping profitable policies "just because they can." They could also be responding to state regulations that prevent them from raising rates to cover the increased costs of providing insurance in wildfire-prone areas.

In California, proposed rate increases have to be approved by the insurance commissioner. State law also prevents insurance companies from passing on to customers the costs of reinsurance (insurance on insurance), climate change, and other future risks. Third parties can also contest proposed rate increases, which consumer advocates frequently do.

Limited in their ability to raise rates, insurance companies have responded by issuing fewer new policies, and renewing fewer old ones in the riskiest areas of the state. That's created the availability problems so many homeowners are facing now, says R.J. Lehman of the R Street Institute.

A.B. 2367, he cautions, could actually make things worse by encouraging some carriers to stop offering property insurance in California altogether.

"Homeowners insurance is risky. The returns are variable, and there's companies that can just decide we don't want to sell that product in that state anymore," Lehman says, adding that they could content themselves with selling more profitable auto insurance instead.

That's what happened in Florida during the 2000s, where a combination of state limits on rate increases and a string of major hurricanes prompted insurers like Allstate and State Farm to stop offering property insurance in the Sunshine State.

Proponents of the Renew California legislation argue that the bill merely requires insurance companies to not stiff responsible homeowners and communities who adopt the fire-hardening standards the bill would create.

That includes Lara, who said in a press release, that "if you have a fire-hardened home in a fire-hardened community, you should be able to get insurance and keep it."

If these to-be-determined fire-hardening standards did actually reduce wildfire risks, counters Lehman, then the legislation Lara and Gonzalez are pushing would be unnecessary.  

"You wouldn't need a bill requiring renewal if the risk was something that an insurance company wanted to take on. You only need the bill because it's an acknowledgment that that mitigation is not enough," he says.

The more California policymakers attempt to obscure the cost of living in wildfire areas, the more property and people will be in harm's way when the next wildfire breaks out.

18 Feb 21:18

Sonic the Hedgehog pips Detective Pikachu to record box office opening - CNET

by Jennifer Bisset
Jack

Looks like disaster averted for this movie.

A delayed release and massive redesigns pay off for the extraterrestrial blue hedgehog.
17 Feb 19:22

I ate at one of America's best burger chains, and I hope it keeps expanding outside of the Midwest

by Michelle Larkin
Jack

I do like Culver's and it is pretty well established in the East Valley at this point. Other chains with diehard fans like Jollibees, White Castle, and Shake Shack have also opened recently.

culversMichelle Larkin for Insider

  • I visited Culver's, a popular Midwest-based fast-food chain that is rapidly growing across the United States.
  • The restaurant had delicious made-to-order ButterBurgers, fresh-churned frozen custard, and Wisconsin cheese curds.
  • The chain prides itself in its hospitality, which I noticed as workers helped me order and even cleared away my trash. 
  • Overall, Culver's has delicious, affordable food and I think the chain should spread to more locations around the globe. 
  • Visit Insider's homepage for more stories.

Culver's started as a family-owned restaurant in Wisconsin with made-to-order cheeseburgers, frozen custard, and cheese curds, and it's since expanded to over 700 restaurants across the US. 

The Culver family opened its first restaurant in 1984 in Sauk City, Wisconsin, and, in 2017, it was even dubbed one of America's best burger chains. See the rest of the story at Business Insider

NOW WATCH: A podiatrist explains heel spurs, the medical condition Trump said earned him a medical deferment from Vietnam

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15 Feb 17:23

What it's like to eat roast suckling pig at El Sobrino de Botín, the oldest restaurant in the world

Jack

Just looking at the picture, I don't think I could do it.

  • El Sobrino de Botín in Madrid, Spain has been in operation since 1725 and holds the Guinness World Record for the oldest restaurant in the world.
  • It serves traditional Castilian cuisine, like el cochinillo (suckling pig), roast leg of lamb, and jamón, among other dishes.
  • Tradition is seeped through the restaurant, from the centuries-old wine cellar now used as a dining room, to the wood-fire oven that has been continuously lit since the beginning of the operation.
  • Visit Insider's homepage for more stories.

Following is a full transcript of this video.

Narrator: Spanish cuisine is known for its excellence in preparing pork. El cochinillo, the suckling pig, is a delicacy that has been served in Castilla since Roman times. Smack in the heart of historical Madrid, right next to the Plaza Mayor, lies the restaurant el Sobrino de Botín, the oldest restaurant in the world.

 See the rest of the story at Business Insider

See Also:

15 Feb 16:24

San Antonio Zoo Valentine’s day markets in everything

by Tyler Cowen

For $25, you can name a rat after your dreaded ex. This rat, who now bears that terrible person’s name, will then be fed to a snake on February 14.

And yes there is price discrimination too:

FYI, you can also pay $5 to the San Antonio Zoo to have a cockroach named after your ex if you’d like to go a cheaper route.

Here is more, via Ellen F.  Should this be understood as a reductio ad absurdum of “takedown culture”?  Somehow I don’t think so.  I am in fact surprised that our gentle age would permit such an emotionally hostile practice.  For what is this a “gateway drug?”  What if you believed in a strange kind of voodoo and thought such feedings in fact placed causal pressure on the so-called real world?  I would be surprised if this market still were up and running in three years’ time.

The post San Antonio Zoo Valentine’s day markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

14 Feb 05:17

BART system ridership has declined by 10 million over 5 years

Jack

Stat of the day

14 Feb 03:58

Was China the worst possible place for the coronavirus to hit?

by ssumner
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Alex Tabarrok has a new post entitled:

Is the world fortunate that the coronavirus hit China first?

I probably agree with Alex as much or more than any other blogger, but here I’d like to argue the opposite hypothesis. My argument will be based on four factors:

1. China is one of the few countries in the temperate region of the world with a big population and no free speech, which inhibits its ability to become aware of a viral outbreak in a timely fashion.

2. In regions that did become aware of coronavirus in a timely fashion, the disease spread has been far less severe than in Hubei.

3. China is developed and populous enough that many of its people travel all over the world. That’s not true of many poor countries.

4. The virus is widely believed to thrive on cold dry air and quickly fade away in warm humid weather. Thus it might have been less of a problem in a tropical country.

Here’s the data we have so far. (Later I’ll discuss its possible inaccuracy):

1. The disease is mostly confined to Hubei province, where it is very widespread (nearly 50,000 reported cases, and many unreported. There are over 1300 confirmed deaths, almost all in Hubei.

2. Most of the other cases (about 20%?) are in other Chinese provinces, but there are only a few dozen deaths.

3. There are two overseas deaths, three if you include Hong Kong.

4. The most important point is this. As the disease spreads all over the world, the share of cases outside Hubei has remained low, and is actually falling over time. That’s odd.

Just yesterday, there was a big revision in the Chinese data, so there is reason to question its accuracy. But the puzzling data within China (i.e. an increasing share within Hubei) is mirrored by the international data. Obviously the Chinese government is not faking the international data!

Here’s the elephant in the room. The fact that the coronavirus has been controlled reasonably well in areas outside of Hubei suggests that if the Chinese government had immediately done the things that foreign governments and non-Hubei Chinese governments have been doing, the outbreak on Hubei would be just as mild as it’s been elsewhere. They didn’t do those things because their repressive political climate caused the central government to be unaware of the severity of the problem. Local doctors knew, but were ignored. It was an obvious “unforced error’ by the Chinese government, ultimately caused by their lack of freedom.

Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t see why my claim here is even controversial. China was probably the single worst country for the coronavirus outbreak to occur. (Other viruses may be different.)

PS. Off topic, consider this:

Mr Tribe said there was still hope that the federal judiciary could remain a check on Mr Trump’s power, and a crucial test would be whether the judge in the case against Mr Stone approved the reduced sentence. “As long as the courts are not wholly subservient we have not plunged completely into the darkness of a banana republic,” he said.

Well at least Trump doesn’t get to pick the judges. Oh wait . . .

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11 Feb 00:30

Reports: Judge set to approve T-Mobile's Sprint deal

by Axios

A judge is set to allow T-Mobile's purchase of Sprint to proceed, ruling against a suit by a coalition of state attorneys general, the New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported Monday. The decision is expected to be announced tomorrow, the papers reported.

Why it matters: The move creates a much larger rival to AT&T and Verizon and was seen as vital for Sprint, which has continued to lose market share during the deal's long approval process.


The big picture: The states' lawsuit was by far the largest remaining hurdle to the long-pending deal, although California's Public Utilities Commission has yet to approve it.

Details: Under a settlement with the Justice Department, T-Mobile will sell off a number of prepaid assets and provide other services to Dish Network to allow it to become a national cell phone provider.

  • Shares of Sprint surged after reports of the deal, while T-Mobile's stock rose more modestly.
  • Both the Journal and the Times cautioned that the people they spoke to knew the deal was set to be approved, but not whether there would be any other conditions or stipulations.

A T-Mobile representative declined comment. A Sprint representative was not immediately available for comment.

10 Feb 01:25

Cruise ship markets in everything

by Tyler Cowen
Jack

Impressive

As the ongoing coronavirus epidemic disrupts cruise operations throughout Asia, Lindblad Expeditions, the cruise operator for National Geographic Expeditions, announced Thursday that it has become “the first self-disenfecting fleet in the cruise industry.”

The company has implemented a disinfectant coating solution developed by Danish company ACT.Global, which uses the photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide to generate free radicals from airborne water molecules. When exposed to light, the coating converts airborne H20 into OH- ions, which break down bacteria, viruses, mold, airborne allergens and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The coating can be applied to all surfaces to give them self-disinfecting qualities, including food-contact surfaces.

According to Lindblad, ACT.Global’s coating creates a cleaner, healthier ship while reducing impact on the environment. The antibacterial spray is transparent and odorless, and it purifies and deodorizes the air for up to one year.

Here is the full story, via Anecdotal.

The post Cruise ship markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

08 Feb 19:26

Welcome to the era of supercharged lithium-ion batteries

by WIRED
Welcome to the era of supercharged lithium-ion batteries

Enlarge

Gene Berdichevsky believes in batteries. As employee number seven at Tesla, he helmed the team that designed the lithium-ion battery pack for the company’s first car, the Roadster, which convinced the world to take electric vehicles seriously. A decade later, EVs can hold their own against your average gas guzzler, but there’s still a large trade-off between the shelf life of their batteries and the amount of energy packed into them. If we want to totally electrify our roads, Berdichevsky realized, it would require a fundamentally different approach.

In 2011, Berdichevsky founded Sila Nanotechnologies to build a better battery. His secret ingredient is nanoengineered particles of silicon, which can supercharge lithium-ion cells when they’re used as the battery’s negative electrode, or anode. Today, Sila is one of a handful of companies racing to bring lithium-silicon batteries out of the lab and into the real world, where they promise to open new frontiers of form and function in electronic devices ranging from earbuds to cars.

Read 14 remaining paragraphs | Comments

08 Feb 19:08

San Francisco Bureaucrats Can Shoot Down Almost Any Housing Project They Want. This Ballot Initiative Would Change That.

by Christian Britschgi

San Francisco Mayor London Breed is proposing a ballot measure that would eliminate city bureaucrats' ability to shoot down code-compliant housing developments. In exchange, the developers would have to include more affordable units than the city already requires.

On its face, it's a pretty marginal reform. For the City by the Bay, it's a radical gamechanger.

"Anyone who tells you that we don't need fundamental reforms to building housing, or that we need years of review before a project can be approved while we're in the middle of a historic housing shortage, is simply wrong," Breed writes in an essay announcing the Affordable Homes Now ballot initiative. "We can shave years from project approval and save millions of dollars of project costs on 100% affordable housing."

In San Francisco, every single building permit is officially issued at the discretion of the city's Planning Commission.

That means that even if someone's proposal for a new single-family home or falafel restaurant conforms to the city's labyrinthine zoning code, commissioners can still demand changes or, in most cases, reject the application entirely.

Members of the public can also request that commissioners use their discretionary authority to review a particular planning application, a privilege that has been weaponized by businesses to stifle competitors, by neighbors to block unwanted development, and by activists to shake down deep-pocketed developers.

Breed's proposed ballot initiative would amend the city's charter to make multi-family housing projects "as-of-right" if they include 15 percent more affordable units than what is already required or are 100 percent affordable. That means they would receive a simplified administrative review by city staff and skip any discretionary review from the planning commission. Permits would have to be issued within six months.

Currently, projects of 10 to 24 units must make 13.5 percent of their units affordable, while buildings containing more than 25 units must make 20.5 percent of them affordable. In this context, an "affordable" unit is one where rents are capped at 30 percent of a tenant's income and the tenant must fall within a specific income bracket.

This policy is known as inclusionary zoning.

"While I ultimately don't think either optional or mandatory inclusionary zoning programs are a solution to broad-based affordability, Mayor Breed's proposal can't make things worse," says Emily Hamilton, a scholar at George Mason University's Mercatus Center.

Hamilton has researched these policies in Maryland and Virginia. She found that mandatory inclusionary zoning programs increase overall home prices by one percent per year.

That wasn't true for opt-in inclusionary zoning programs that gave developers permission to build taller, denser buildings in return for their voluntary inclusion of affordable units. These voluntary programs did not act as a tax on development. But they also didn't produce much affordable housing, except in communities with very strict limits on density.

Hamilton says Breed's proposal is more like the voluntary inclusionary zoning programs. Whether it actually produces many affordable units is difficult to determine, she says.

Renting out more than a third of your units at below-market rates is a big cost to absorb. San Francisco projects that have tried to include that many affordable units have stalled.

But the city's permitting process is so lengthy and onerous—taking four years on average to approve multi-family projects—that any opportunity to bypass it would be worthwhile. That's particularly true at a time when construction costs continue to skyrocket, making every delay all that more costly.

Hamilton notes that the 100 percent affordable projects that would be permitted "as-of-right" in Breed's proposal could be rented out to tenants making up to 140 percent of the city's median income. In San Francisco, that would allow developers to charge monthly rents of more than $4,000 for some families.

"It might be the case that developers can provide these units without incurring a big cost to do so," says Hamilton, "in which case it would just allow more housing to be built where lots of people want to live at a lower price-point."

"Building in [San Francisco] is expensive. It doesn't have to be complicated too," said Sharky Laguana, president of the city's Small Business Commission, in a press release, adding that the proposal "gets government out of the way."

Breed's ballot measure would also put an end to her city's most egregious development battles, where activists try to wring more concessions out of developers by gumming up the approval process with cynical, often absurd complaints.

Some might recall the case of Robert Tillman, who wanted to convert a laundromat he owned in the city's Mission District to an apartment building. Though his land was already zoned for housing, activists were able to delay the project for years by claiming his laundromat was a historically significant building and that the building he wanted to erect would cast shadows on an already shaded playground.

Tillman told me in 2018 that what he wanted more than anything was certainty.

"Just tell me what the rules are, and I'll either make a decision to build something based on those rules or I'll make a decision that it's not economical," he said. "Don't change the rules on me midstream, or put in place rules and then act as if they don't exist."

Breed voted to delay Tillman's project when she was still on the Board of Supervisors But her initiative would provide the certainty that Tillman desires.

Though this would be a marked improvement, it's important to stress that the initiative would not change the city's underlying zoning code. All the restrictions on density that exist now would remain in place.

Supporters have their work cut out for them to even get the measure on the ballot. The New York Times notes that it has to get 50,000 signatures from registered voters in a city of 900,000 people.

If it wins, it will be a marginal, but nevertheless significant, improvement on a deplorable status quo.

08 Feb 19:07

The Tear of Allah

by Jonathan Kaiman
Jack

Interesting case.

The series of events that would transform Zhuman Ramazan's life began 4.6 billion years ago, millions of miles from Earth, when dust, rock, and other celestial debris gathered into an asteroid. In the late neolithic period, sometime around the dawn of writing, the asteroid crashed into Earth's atmosphere, scattering silvery-black meteorites across the Eurasian continent. Many landed in what is now northwest China's Xinjiang region, a swath of mountains, deserts, and high-elevation plains about four times the size of California.

In July 1986, Zhuman, a Muslim and ethnic Kazakh herder, was tending his flock on his 100-acre pasture in the region's far north. Suddenly, a sheep darted away, and Zhuman, then 30, followed it on horseback. Around him, the Chinese county of Altay rose into snow-capped mountains delimiting Kazakhstan to the west, Mongolia to the east, and Russia to the north.

Zhuman noticed a boulder that he'd never seen before, partially hidden behind a granite slab. It was eerily reflective and about the size and shape of a small car. He knocked it with his fist, and it made a soft pinging noise. He knew nothing about meteorites, he says, but was "excited about finding something unique and different." Zhuman informed the village's Communist Party officials, and they congratulated him on his discovery. One called the meteorite "Zhuman's Strange Stone." Local herders devised another name for it: the "Tear of Allah." They considered it a gift from God and often gathered near it to pray. Back then, China was liberalizing its economy, and Zhuman thought he could perhaps someday make it a tourist attraction. He watched over the boulder for 25 years.

Then in October 2011, city officials arrived with a backhoe and dragged the Tear of Allah away.  Zhuman was livid. In 2015, he filed a lawsuit demanding the meteorite's return. When that failed, he filed another suit demanding compensation.

As the case wound through China's convoluted legal system, the world around Zhuman shifted in ways big and small. That year, Zhuman's son had a daughter, Aifeili, and doctors diagnosed her with a congenital heart defect. Zhuman was faced with a terrible choice. Either he could sell his livestock to pay for an expensive surgery, leaving his family destitute, or Aifeili would grow up facing the risk of serious disability, perhaps even death. For Zhuman, now 63, the lawsuit became a ray of hope.

Meanwhile, Xinjiang was becoming one of the most repressive places on Earth. In the early to mid-2010s, a series of violent incidents roiled the region's south. The Communist Party responded with a draconian anti-terror campaign. Police stations proliferated, and soldiers marched through the streets with machine guns. Heavy surveillance became an immutable fact of life, particularly for the region's Muslim population. Neighbors informed on neighbors, children on parents, friends on friends.

The bigger picture in China was more nuanced. Chinese President Xi Jinping, after rising to power in 2012, declared "law-based governance" a core political principle. He was explicit that the Communist Party would retain absolute control over China's judiciary, and his sustained, extrajudicial crackdowns on "sensitive" groups—including activists, journalists, and Xinjiang's Muslim minorities—left no room for doubt.

Yet Xi also pressed the courts to codify laws where none had previously existed, creating space for conflicting imperatives. China had no laws concerning the ownership of celestial objects, but in March 2017, Xinjiang's high court demanded that the Altay City People's Court hear Zhuman's case. This was an extraordinary decision. It may mark the only time in recent memory that a Xinjiang court has recognized a Muslim minority's grievance against Communist Party authorities. And it launched Zhuman into a fraught legal odyssey, with his granddaughter's life on the line.

Xinjiang's Unhappy History

I first read about Zhuman's case in a Chinese newspaper. In April 2018, I flew to Altay to meet him. With its kelly-green mountains and azure skies, northern Xinjiang is a place of ethereal beauty. It is also a place of overwhelming paranoia. Propaganda billboards line the road from the airport to the city, exhorting travelers to both "uphold the law" and "raise high the flag of ethnic unity." The city is a quaint grid of tile midrise structures home to about 500,000 people, about half of them ethnic Kazakh. Police "service stations" stand gray and windowless on every corner, and surveillance cameras peer down from power lines like birds.

I called a friend of Zhuman's, a local teacher who offered to translate his Kazakh into the Mandarin I speak, and we hired a car to his village. At a convenience store where we stopped for drinking water, a poster behind the counter emphasized that veils, headscarves, and beards were banned.

We then drove to a gas station ringed by a razor-wire fence. Our driver approached a security booth near the gate, swiped his government-issued ID card, and blinked into a facial-recognition camera. A guard opened the gate, and we drove to the pumps. Later, as the city's midrises fanned out into high plains, a vast police checkpoint—the only modern structure for tens of miles—arced across the highway. We pulled up, and a masked officer walked toward the car, his palm extended. He photographed my face and passport and reluctantly waved us through.

Chinese control over Xinjiang has been a recurrent flashpoint for centuries. Its name, which translates to "new frontier," dates back to a Qing Dynasty conquest in 1884. The region is home to 12 ethnic groups, according to the Chinese government. Historically nomadic peoples (Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Mongols) populate its northern steppes, sedentary oasis dwellers (Uighurs) its southern deserts. Uighurs comprise nearly half of the region's 22 million people, and by almost any metric—cultural, linguistic, religious—they hew closer to central Asia than to Beijing.

The Chinese Communist Party wrested control over Xinjiang from decentralized local authorities in 1949, and in the decades since, it has overseen mass-scale Han Chinese migration to the area. Attempts to assimilate, or "Sinicize," the Uighurs followed, and in some areas, so did local backlash: scattered protests and rallies, bus bombings in 1997, and a thwarted suicide attack on a Chinese domestic flight in 2008. Tensions boiled over in 2009, when protests in Ürümqi, the regional capital, spiraled into violence. Knife-wielding mobs ransacked parts of the city, leaving nearly 200 people dead, most of them Han Chinese. Authorities blamed a "terrorist network" of "Xinjiang separatists," yet their response targeted Uighurs as a whole, casting a fog of suspicion over their language, religion, and culture.

In 2014, black-clad assailants killed 29 people and injured 130 at a train station in Kunming, a leafy city in China's southwest, hundreds of miles from Xinjiang. Authorities identified the culprits as Uighurs, implicating the ethnic group for the first time in a major, coordinated attack outside Xinjiang's borders. That year, Xi launched what he called the "People's War on Terror," and the fog thickened. Authorities tightened controls around the region, effectively isolating it from the world. They began building a vast network of re-education camps—detention centers with an emphasis on cultivating loyalty to the Communist Party.

In 2016, Chen Quanguo—a former Communist secretary of Tibet and staunch Xi ally—took over as Xinjiang's top party official. Chen branded any display of Muslim piety as "extremism" and sought to systematically "transform" the region's Muslims by coercive control. The result has been a surveillance state that nearly rivals North Korea's in scope and severity, and one that far surpasses it in technological prowess. Authorities have forced most, if not all, Xinjiang Muslims to submit to biodata collection (blood samples, fingerprints, face scans) and download spyware onto their mobile phones. Artificial intelligence algorithms collate private communications and public records to predict an individual's likelihood of nonconformity. Those deemed "unsafe" are thrown into camps.

Experts estimate that more than a million Xinjiang Muslims are currently in detention. "Since Chen Quanguo has taken over, he's essentially stopped the violent resistance, but it's essentially through absolute control, which is not a sustainable solution," says Sean Roberts, a Xinjiang expert and professor of international affairs at George Washington University. "There are some signs that the discourse of terrorism has increasingly turned Beijing against Islam writ large."

Altay has not experienced substantive unrest in recent years. Yet even a quick glance at the prefecture shows that under Chen, the crackdowns have spread far beyond Uighur areas. China is home to about 1.5 million ethnic Kazakhs, the vast majority of them in northern Xinjiang's Ili prefecture, home to Altay. Most are Muslim. Several told me that since Chen assumed power, they've been barred entirely from practicing their religion. Communicating with family abroad raises red flags for authorities and can result in detention or worse. Leaving the region for work—say, to open a restaurant in Beijing—has become effectively impossible.

Authorities have detained scores of ethnic Kazakhs for wearing "Islamic" clothing and praying, according to Radio Free Asia, a U.S. government–backed news service. In 2017, an ethnic Kazakh in Barkol County, about 550 miles from Altay, died in police custody after he inquired about his two detained brothers. Former detainees have described overcrowding, isolation, forced labor, and torture, according to Atajurt, a Kazakhstan-based human rights group. (The Chinese government, which once denied the existence of the camps, now refers to them as "vocational training centers" and denies any mistreatment.) Many detained Xinjiang Kazakhs are transferred to formal prisons after swift, black-box court proceedings. Some are released under extreme surveillance. Others simply disappear.

And yet in Xinjiang life goes on. Residents celebrate their achievements and mourn their defeats. They worry about their finances, about their livestock, about their prospects in an ever-changing world—and about their granddaughters.

Who Owns a Rock From Space?

Zhuman lives in the village of Kuoleteke, a bleak scattering of single-story concrete homes about an hour from Altay's central city. When we arrive, he receives us with his brother, Kenjiebieke, and his son, Teliuwubieke. All three have the same wind-reddened cheeks and stoic smiles. Inside, Zhuman's home is awash in color. Ornate carpets line the walls, and a central table overflows with biscuits and blueberry jam. An elderly relative serves us milk from the family's camel, which is hitched to a post out back. Zhuman's granddaughter Aifeili—Teliuwubieke's daughter—plays on the bed; Tom and Jerry cartoons loop on a muted television.

As we make small talk, Zhuman disappears into another room and re-emerges carrying a stack of documents—records of his yearslong fight over the Tear of Allah. He speaks of it in wistful terms, like a beloved, distant relative. "At first, a lot of people came by—it wasn't on their land, but they herded nearby, and they would come by to see it. And sometimes they'd bring knives and axes, and they'd carve their names into the rock," he says. "For 25 years, I didn't allow other people to do that."

In 2009, as China grew rich, Altay became the epicenter of a rare mineral boom. The area's jade, crystals, and mica were fetching eye-watering sums on a national gray market. "At the time people had a sense that Altay rocks, their average value was higher than gold," Zhuman says. "Some kids left their jobs to find rocks. Every travel destination was selling rocks. Everybody in Altay started dealing in rocks."

In 2011, a friend of a friend posted a picture of the meteorite online, and city officials began inquiring about its exact location. Then, in late October, they showed up at Zhuman's remote pasture with a backhoe. Zhuman, Kenjiebieke, and Teliuwubieke stood guard, preventing them from reaching the meteorite, but as fall gave way to winter, a blizzard drove them back to the village. The officials took the opportunity to drag the stone away, cutting a two-foot-deep, two-mile-long trench across the grass.

In Chinese media reports, Altay officials said they took the Tear of Allah to protect it. Zhuman disputes this. "The government didn't give a reason—they just said this meteorite is ours now," he says. When Teliuwubieke went looking for answers, officials repeatedly rebuffed him.

Four years later, Aifeili was born, an extroverted child who laughs loudly and barely cries. "She has two holes in her heart," her father says. "One that can heal on its own, and another that's about five millimeters in diameter." The latter, he explains, could kill or disable her. This strengthened his resolve.

Like many of Xinjiang's younger Kazakhs, Teliuwubieke left the nomadic life behind but found himself adrift. Many Kazakhs speak Mandarin poorly, which limits them to second-tier service jobs as waiters, taxi drivers, or convenience store owners. Teliuwubieke opened a wedding dress shop in the city, earning him about $600 per month. It was enough to live humbly, but not to save Aifeili.

Around the world, meteorite ownership is a national policy issue that reflects a country's attitudes toward rule of law, individual rights, and scientific discovery. In the U.S., most Western European countries, and Japan, if a meteorite falls on private property, it belongs to the landowner; if it falls on public property, it goes to the state. A meteorite discovered anywhere in Denmark goes to the government, but a museum must buy it from its finder at market value. In India, experts disagree about whether a 130-year-old colonial British law remains in force. A meteorite discovered in Russia must be reported to authorities and tested in a lab.

Teliuwubieke was unfamiliar with Chinese property law. But he followed Chinese state media closely, and he was heartened by President Xi's legal admonitions. Since 2012, Xi has cracked down on corruption, punishing at least 100,000 government officials for alleged malfeasance and spreading a culture of fear throughout the bureaucracy. "Right now under Xi Jinping, you can talk with government officials," Teliuwubieke says. "Back then, you couldn't." He and Zhuman found a lawyer in Shanghai, Sun Yi, to represent them.

Sun built his case around deceptively simple questions. According to Chinese property law, all of the country's natural resources—"minerals, waters, forests, mountains, grasslands, wastelands, marshlands, etc."—belong to the state. But what, Sun asked, does the law mean by "etc."? Does it include celestial objects? The Altay court agreed that Sun had a case. But it refused to return the Tear of Allah, and after an appeal, the question turned to compensation.

The largest meteorite ever discovered, "Hoba," was found by a farmer in Grootfontein, Namibia, in 1920, and weighs about 66 tons. The largest in North America, the "Willamette" meteorite, weighs 15.2 tons and has been on display at New York's American Museum of Natural History since 1906. The Tear of Allah, at an estimated 17 tons, ranks in the top 15. Sun initially estimated its value at about $135 per pound—the market rate for iron meteorites—which would make it worth more than $5 million. Zhuman sued for the full amount.

Eric Twelker, founder of Meteorite Market, a U.S.-based online emporium, says there are too few boulder-sized meteorites on Earth for a standard market to exist. "It's kind of a unique situation," he says. "But China has a large number of very rich people. And Chinese people are just in the thrall of meteorites—they love them. And they love big." He believes it would be possible to find a buyer who would pay top dollar for the Tear of Allah. "But how much that is—boy, that's a tough one."

On January 3, 2018, the court rejected Zhuman's proposed compensation. The herder appealed, seeking 6 million yuan (about $1 million). "I just hope to keep the family safe," he says. "If we win, first I'll pay for surgery for Aifeili. Then, if I have money left over, I'll give some to other families who need surgery for the same heart condition. If I lose, I can't do anything."

I begin to ask him about the meteorite's intangible value. But when I utter the words "Tear of Allah,"  Zhuman's expression darkens. "It was other herders who called it the Tear of Allah, not me," he says. He confers with his family in Kazakh, then turns back. "We're not allowed to say Allah," he explains.

That afternoon, Teliuwubieke drives me back through the police checkpoint—where an officer photographs us both—and across the endless plains. When we approach Altay City, he turns off the highway and parks on a side road. I follow him down a concrete staircase, and we stop in front of a drab, single-story office building encircled by a high fence. "The meteorite's in there," he says, pointing toward a yellow shed. It looks like a comically outsized doghouse, weather-worn and surrounded by weeds.

'Nobody Detained You'

I'm back at Zhuman's house the following afternoon when Teliuwubieke's cellphone rings. He utters a few affirmations, then hangs up. "It's the police," he says. "They want to see us." Authorities had apparently recorded us together at the highway checkpoint, flagged my journalist visa, and tied Teliuwubieke's government ID card to his phone number.

We drive to the police station, a steel-gray building in a dusty construction yard. Inside, a shelf is full of riot shields, helmets, and battering rams. Behind a metal desk, a giant flatscreen TV broadcasts surveillance feeds from around the village.

The police take Teliuwubieke into a separate room, march me to an unmarked car, and drive me to Altay's central police station. There, a wiry officer demands that I hand over my phone and computer. I decline.

More officers gather, forming a small crowd. "Coming here without permission, that was not right," one says.

After some deliberation, two officers drive me to my hotel. They sit on the bed opposite mine and ask me where I've been, whom I spoke to, what I asked, and what I planned to publish. "We know you're not only interested in meteorites," one says. It suddenly occurs to me that almost every officer I've seen that day is ethnic Kazakh. Xinjiang authorities have long rewarded exceptionally loyal minorities with official posts; I wonder how these two men attained theirs, but I see no viable way to ask.

A few hours later, three officials from the local Propaganda Department arrive, all Han Chinese. One, who introduces herself as Ms. Yang, demands that I include the government's perspective in my report, though she refuses to provide that perspective. "Ordinary people can be very biased," she says. She then demands that I cede my phone and computer. I again decline, citing a 2008 national law: In China, foreign correspondents "need only obtain the consent of the organization or individual they wish to interview."

The police officers bristle. "There are laws, and there are regulations," one says. "That might be the law. But you've broken a regulation."

Yang stations two low-level officials in my hotel room to watch me overnight. At about 1 a.m., a brusque, broad-shouldered policeman enters and asks about my travel plans. I tell him I hope to return to my home in Beijing as soon as possible. He leaves, and I sigh with relief—but 10 minutes later he's back with a partner. "We need to take your phone," he says, his face inches from mine, his fists clenched. Exhausted and panicked, I give it to him. He then demands my computer, and I give that to him, too.

In my seven years as a China correspondent, I had been detained about a half-dozen times while reporting in remote and politically sensitive areas. Most local Chinese officials, I'd learned, see no functional difference between a foreign journalist and a spy. But they also grasp the power of bad press, so they'd treat me with grudging deference. They would scrutinize my documents, escort me to the outer limits of their jurisdictions, and wave me goodbye. None had ever confiscated my devices or kept me overnight. Trying futilely to sleep, I wonder if the rules have changed.

I spend the following day nervously pacing my hotel room as my Propaganda Department minders play on their phones. Time begins to blur; 20 hours under watch, then 25, then 30. At around 9:30 p.m. on the second night, the broad-shouldered policeman returns with my devices, instructing me to book a next-day flight to Beijing. I turn my phone off airplane mode, and it floods with concerned messages. Once the policemen leave, I text a friend to say I'd been detained. Almost immediately, the officer returns. "Be careful about the words you use," he says. "Nobody detained you. Nobody held down your arms and legs. You were free to move as you wish."

At about 6 a.m. the next day, the Propaganda Department hires a driver to take me 450 miles to Ürümqi, the regional capital, for my evening flight out. The route is riddled with potholes. "There's no money to fix them," the driver says, laughing. "It's all going to riot control."

My flight takes off on time, and for the first time in 48 hours I feel that I can breathe.

A day later, I receive an automated email alert from Dropbox. Someone has attempted to remotely erase my files—about 10,000 documents and photos from years of reporting in China. I deny the attempt and that afternoon replace my devices and change my passwords. I have not spoken with Zhuman, his family, or the Altay authorities since.

A Regime of Random Responses

Atajurt, the Kazakhstan-based human rights group, has solicited thousands of testimonies from former Xinjiang detainees in recent years, and the stories they tell shock the conscience. In 2017, about 20 Xinjiang Kazakhs gathered for the birthday party of an imam's small child; all were subsequently detained. In March 2018, a highly respected Xinjiang Kazakh—himself a government official—petitioned Beijing for information after a member of his community died in a camp. Authorities detained his entire family, releasing his wife and two sons after 11 months and sentencing his 70-year-old father to two decades in prison.

"We know of one very young guy who died [of stress] after his parents' detention," says Mehmet Volkan, a translator for Atajurt. "He was saying, 'I miss my parents, I miss my parents, I miss my parents,' and he died. His sister told us in an interview. He was 22 years old and had a blood pressure problem."

Volkan adds that in 2019, the number of Kazakh detainees in Xinjiang camps has begun to decline, and surveillance in Kazakh areas has become less visible. But the culture of fear remains. "People have internalized surveillance," he says.

I've called Zhuman's lawyer, Sun, twice since my reporting trip, to check on the case and on Zhuman's family. Last summer, he believed the Altay court would hold a trial within a few months, and "its result might push the government to come up with a standard law." But the decision didn't come, and when we speak in November, his optimism has waned. "They've reported the case to higher authorities," he says. "But they say because this case is special, it might take a really long time. And it's been a really long time."

Sun tells me Zhuman occasionally calls him. While the herder still frets about the case, his life remains largely unchanged. "He's not too good, but he's not too bad, either," Sun says.

None of my sources have been able to explain how Zhuman could challenge the Xinjiang government while avoiding cataclysmic sanction. Some speculated that his legal counsel in Shanghai, the unconventional nature of his case, and the media attention the meteorite got have helped. But the truth is probably unknowable. A regime of random punishment is also a regime of random clemency. In a place where ideology supersedes law, where the rules are ever-changing, and where so much is unspeakable, individual fates are as arbitrary as rocks that rain from the sky.

08 Feb 02:37

The Democratic establishment is doing a really bad job of stopping Bernie Sanders

by Matthew Yglesias
Bernie Sanders smiling. Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Complaining doesn't accomplish anything; they need to unite on an alternative.

On December 11, 1999, about eight weeks before the New Hampshire primary, then-President Bill Clinton endorsed Vice President Al Gore as his preferred successor.

At the time, Gore was running for the nomination against Sen. Bill Bradley, the former New York Knick turned senator from New Jersey.

Clinton didn’t bash Bradley. But he also made a clear choice. After all, he had selected Gore for a role that presupposes he could be president in the middle of a giant national crisis. The move probably wasn’t as obvious as it seems now — the personal relationship between the two was somewhat strained at the time because Gore had distanced himself from Clinton in the wake of his impeachment — but Clinton was effusive in his praise of Gore, calling him “the most effective and influential vice president who has ever served.”

Bradley wasn’t a profound ideological challenge to the party establishment as Sanders is today, but nonetheless, there was a distinct closing of the ranks around Gore. By the time Clinton endorsed him, the Democratic leaders in both the House and Senate had already backed him. Major donors marshaled their resources behind him.

Nothing like it is happening in the 2020 cycle. Instead, mainstream Democrats openly wring their hands about the prospect of a Bernie Sanders nomination. Though Sanders supporters are borderline paranoid about anti-Sanders sentiment, there’s virtually no actual anti-Sanders organizing.

Meanwhile, the rival campaigns still number in the double digits. Several of them have many passionate followers, and one of them might beat Sanders. But their sheer multiplicity — and key leaders’ refusal to decide among them — is a sign that anti-Sanders zeal, though real, is also quite limited.

Definitively stopping Sanders would require a clear choice, yet party leaders have clearly decided they can’t be bothered.

Joe Biden’s endorsement roster is weak

To see how Biden is faring compared with Gore, just look at his list of endorsements.

He is, of course, the unquestioned endorsement leader if you follow the FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker. They include Cindy Axne, the first-year House member from Iowa; Leroy Garcia, the president of the Colorado state Senate; Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan; Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont; and Alabama Sen. Doug Jones. My colleague Laura McGann points out he’s the favorite choice of frontline House Democrats who need to win in tough races. But Biden’s endorsers are mostly people nobody’s heard of.

We live in a nationalized media environment where politically engaged citizens have emotional and intellectual relationships with nationally known political figures. Gore had figures like that behind his campaign — Clinton, Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt — but today, Biden doesn’t have Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or Nancy Pelosi.

Obama hasn’t endorsed his own VP pick, even though “Obama likes me” is central to Biden’s pitch. Clinton, who clearly has a problem with Sanders, hasn’t endorsed his biggest rival either, even though she could help shore up support with college-educated women currently backing Elizabeth Warren. Chuck Schumer and Pelosi haven’t endorsed. Nor has former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid or Gore himself. John Kerry is backing Biden but then was overheard seemingly musing his own run, undermining the Biden effort.

Solid backing for Biden from high-profile Democrats wouldn’t make Sanders’s factional support dry up. But it would deliver a clear and unambiguous signal to Democrats to rally behind Biden instead of fracturing across three or four candidates.

And, of course, it would help with money.

The “donor class” is desperately fragmented

Sanders has created a fundraising juggernaut grounded in a huge national base of small donors.

But as great as small donors are, rich large donors have a lot more money and should be able to ensure a solid cash advantage. Instead of helping the former vice president match Sanders in fundraising, though, Democrats’ traditional bundlers and large donors have largely rallied to the banner of the former mayor of the fourth-largest city in Indiana — making Pete Buttigieg the No. 2 fundraiser in the race.

Buttigieg seems like a nice guy, a smart guy, and a good politician who I think would do a fine job as president. But as a coordination point for a party elite that’s supposedly trying to close ranks and stop a socialist insurgent, he’s a frankly bizarre choice, starting with his thin résumé and his issue gaining support from black voters.

It’s much easier to imagine Biden, whom many black voters like, beating Sanders in a head-to-head matchup than it is to imagine Buttigieg doing so. And if Buttigieg’s money had gone to Biden, Biden could use that money to help beat Sanders. But instead, donor money is going to help Buttigieg poach white moderate votes from Biden, creating a fragmented field that could let Sanders win purely by consolidating progressives.

To make matters worse, Democrats have two separate ego-fueled billionaire vanity campaigns in the field.

Plutocrats are objectively helping Sanders win

Because Mike Bloomberg is ridiculously rich, he keeps putting ads on TV in random places.

They’re good ads, well-targeted at the views of Democrats who think that Donald Trump is extremely bad. Bloomberg’s actual record both in business and in politics — from sexual harassment to stop-and-frisk to endorsing George W. Bush — is complicated, and there’s plenty for normie Democrats to dislike. But the ads are good. They’d also be great ads for Joe Biden if Bloomberg wanted to generously finance a pro-Biden Super PAC.

Right now in the polling averages, Sanders is just below 25 percent while Biden is just below 30 percent. To beat him handily, all Biden needs to do is consolidate the bulk of the non-Bernie vote. Bloomberg’s ads and money could be very helpful in doing that. But instead, Bloomberg is spending the money on himself, rising to 8.3 percent in the polls — not nearly enough to win but enough to cut Biden’s lead over Sanders.

Then, absurdly, Tom Steyer, who is both less rich than Bloomberg and much less qualified for the presidency, is also dumping tens of millions of dollars on a pointless quest to further divide the field.

Many Sanders fans I know seem to experience this cavalcade of wild ideas — Maybe we’ll promote an underqualified mayor! Maybe we’ll run two billionaires simultaneously! — as a sign of how desperate the donor class is to defeat Sanders. But in its practical impact, it’s precisely the opposite. The financial fragmentation that’s left Biden outspent by both Sanders and three moderate rivals is overcomplicating any effort to stop the red tide.

If Biden’s not up for it, someone should have said so

One possible interpretation of all this is that top Democrats have profound doubts about Biden that they didn’t have about Al Gore.

If that’s the issue, then the failure to coordinate and convey that opinion to the public in a clear way is an even bigger bungle. Most Americans like to think of themselves as independent-minded people, which is one reason endorsements often don’t seem to matter that much. But if Obama had said that he thought Biden was too old and Democrats should go in another direction — or if he’d said that Buttigieg is too young and inexperienced — then rank-and-file Democrats surely would have listened.

Instead, party leaders allowed the well-known and well-liked Biden to get left out in the cold and for enormous sums of money to be spent on fragmenting the anti-Sanders vote.

What’s more, all efforts to take down Sanders are counterproductive. Clinton, for starters, can’t seem to restrain herself from venting bitterly about Sanders. And Obama’s heavy-handed intervention into the Democratic National Committee chair race several years ago, similarly, did an enormous amount to poison the well. But while these kinds of moves do annoy Sanders’s biggest boosters, they don’t actually hurt Sanders’s campaign.

What would hurt Sanders’s campaign would be elite coordination toward a single candidate. That hasn’t happened.

08 Feb 02:33

3 things to know about Ireland’s elections Saturday

by Jen Kirby
General Election Ireland 2020 Taoiseach Leo Varadkar canvasses with Fine Gael candidates on the last day of election campaigning. | Brian Lawless/PA Images via Getty Images

Sinn Fein’s surge, Leo Varadkar’s troubles, and what else to know about the vote.

Irish leader Leo Varadkar came to power in 2017 in a historic victory. Ireland’s youngest-ever prime minister and the openly gay son of Indian immigrants, he presented a new image of the once staunchly Catholic country. Then Brexit supercharged his international profile.

But things are not looking great for Varadkar, or his center-right party, Fine Gael, as they head into Saturday’s elections in Ireland. Varadkar called snap elections in January after an arrangement with his party’s traditional rival, Fianna Fáil, began to crumble. Varadkar had little choice but to call a vote.

Varadkar achieved remarkable success abroad in the Brexit negotiations, managing to protect Ireland’s interests by preserving its open border with Northern Ireland (which is part of the United Kingdom, which just left the European Union) and getting the EU to unify behind the interests of Ireland, one of its smaller members.

But at home, Irish voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the government’s handling of major domestic issues, housing and health care top among them.

Varadkar’s pitch — which includes “Brexit is still far from over” and “you shouldn’t change teams midway through the game” — isn’t resonating with voters who are eager for change and fed up with the high cost of housing and insufficient public services.

Which is why the left-wing, all-Ireland party Sinn Féin is suddenly surging in the polls. That could dramatically change Ireland’s politics — although, at least this time around, it’s impossible for the party to win power outright.

That also means that Ireland’s election results could be very messy, as no one party is likely to win outright, which means they’ll all need other parties to form a government. Right now, it looks like Fianna Fáil might win the most votes, but no one knows yet what kind of coalition it might form — or if it can even do so.

So, with that, here are three big things to know about Ireland’s elections this Saturday.

1) Forget Brexit: This election is about health care and housing and the desire for change

Though Varadkar came on the scene in 2017, his party, Fine Gael, has been in power since 2011. Fianna Fáil, the other main party, has supported Fine Gael since 2016 in what’s known as a “confidence and supply” arrangement — basically, that means Fianna Fáil agrees not to defeat the government on key votes, but it doesn’t have a formal position within the government.

Brexit negotiations (and the many, many Brexit delays) kept the otherwise fragile arrangement intact, but once the UK’s departure from the EU was assured, the agreement was more or less doomed. Though Ireland was already expected to have elections in the spring, probably around May, Varadkar went ahead and called the snap elections for February.

Ireland got what it wanted out of the first phase of Brexit — no hard border on the island of Ireland, and no disruptive no-deal — which would naturally seem to be a boost for Varadkar and his government, especially since EU-UK trade negotiations are set to begin.

But experts say this election isn’t really about Brexit at all.

The election “has focused squarely on quality-of-life issues, primarily on the ongoing crises in housing and health care in Ireland,” Cera Murtagh, assistant professor of Irish politics at Villanova University, told me.

Ireland has a fairly strong economy, but housing costs have skyrocketed. Younger generations can’t afford to buy homes and the country is dealing with a record-high homeless population. Dublin is one of the costliest cities in Europe to live in.

Ireland’s health care system is also facing serious shortfalls, as it has for years. A recent poll by the Irish Times found that 42 percent of Irish voters ranked health care as the top priority, followed by 32 percent who thought housing was the most important issue. Brexit came in at a measly 3 percent.

Part of the reason Brexit may not be such a big deal, experts told me, is because any of Ireland’s political parties would probably seek to represent the same interests, so there’s really no disagreement there.

All of this is bad news for Varadkar. It’s perhaps even worse for his party, Fine Gael. If voters are dissatisfied with the status quo, asking them to reelect a party that’s been in power for nearly a decade is not an easy ask. And Fianna Fáil, even though it isn’t formally part of the current government, is the second of the two main parties and is also seen as part of this centrist status quo.

“Change has been the dominate theme,” Gary Murphy, a professor of politics at Dublin City University, told me. “Many people don’t see a huge change in their own circumstances on the ground, and if you’re a governing party in the Irish system when the narrative goes against you, it’s very difficult to rein it back in.”

One party in particular has seized upon the narrative that Ireland’s two main parties are more of the same. That party is Sinn Féin.

2) Sinn Féin is about to shake up Irish politics — just maybe not how you think

Sinn Féin is a political party that represents both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

In Northern Ireland, it’s the largest party representing nationalists, meaning those who believe in a united Ireland. But in the Republic of Ireland, it’s traditionally been a less influential political player, both because of its left-wing policies and its radical past, specifically its affiliation with the Irish Republican Army (IRA) during the Troubles.

But Sinn Féin’s political status in the Republic of Ireland has changed in recent years, and dramatically so in the lead-up to the current election. An Irish Times poll earlier this week found that Sinn Féin had the most support among Irish voters at 25 percent, with Fianna Fáil in second at 23 percent and Fine Gael at just 20 percent.

But its dramatic boost has little to do with the question of Irish unification, an issue that’s become much more serious after Brexit. Instead, Sinn Féin and its leader, Mary Lou McDonald, have promised to deliver change that the Irish electorate seems eager for, framing their left-wing policies as the antidote to the centrism and stagnation of Ireland’s two major parties, which have dominated Irish politics since independence in the 1920s.

Murphy said Sinn Féin’s appeal is grounded in old-school, leftist politics. And it’s apparently working, particularly with younger voters who are much more detached from Sinn Féin’s controversial past. Ireland’s youth surge has made a difference in politics, experts told me, especially with the recent referendums on marriage equality in 2015 and abortion in 2018.

Sinn Féin’s rise echoes the anti-elite sentiment that’s upended other democracies in recent years, though this time it’s on the left, not the right. Still, Varadkar has tried to tie their rise to the recent populist victories in the UK and the US.

“Bear in mind that all change isn’t change for the better,” Varadkar said during a leaders’ debate this week. “We saw in Britain with Brexit, people voting for change and they got Brexit. We saw Donald Trump being elected in the US. That’s not the kind of change we want.”

This surging support for Sinn Féin has taken Ireland by surprise — maybe nobody more so than the party itself. After all, it did poorly in local and European elections last year.

“They were a party that was kind of stagnating,” Murphy said. “Their rise has taken many people, including myself, by some surprise. They weren’t getting traction, and now they’re benefiting from this sort of discontent.”

Likely because of those poor results, Sinn Féin isn’t contesting enough seats in Ireland’s 160-seat Dáil Éireann (its parliament) to win power outright. Eighty seats are needed for a majority, but Sinn Féin is standing in elections for only 42 of them. What’s more, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have said they won’t form a coalition government with Sinn Féin.

But if Sinn Féin does as well as the polls suggest, it’s still going to rattle politics. It could potentially upend the duopoly of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, making Sinn Féin much harder to ignore. Symbolically, it would be a huge deal.

“Given its leftist platform and republic orientation, Sinn Féin’s future participation in government could herald a significant shift in direction for Ireland, both in policy terms and on the question of the border,” Villanova University’s Murtagh said.

3) Ireland will elect new leaders. But forming a government is going to be tricky.

“I think we can make one prediction, very straightforwardly: no party is going to win a majority,” Brendan O’Leary, Lauder professor or political science at the University of Pennsylvania, told me.

That’s point No. 1. Point No. 2, O’Leary said, is that it’s “going to be extremely close between the top three: Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin.” But one has to be on top, and right now polls suggest Fianna Fáil is likely to get the most seats, at about 40.

That is, of course, not close enough to a majority, which means it’s going to need support from other parties, potentially from smaller left-leaning parties, like Labour or the Greens. (Fianna Fáil is a bit more center-left.)

Micheal Martin, the leader of Fianna Fáil, has also ruled out a coalition with Fine Gael — but depending on the numbers, he might have to negotiate or go with an arrangement similar to the one the party has now, except this time the roles would be reversed.

Currently, though, the prospects of Varadkar returning as prime minister look pretty grim, even if Varadkar himself is a bit more personally popular than the party he leads.

04 Feb 07:50

The Zoning Straight-Jacket

by Alex Tabarrok

In a new paper, Robert Ellickson makes a simple but important point: local land-use zoning freezes land use into place preventing land from moving from low-value to high-value uses even over many decades.

Recall the neighborhood where you spent your childhood. For most Americans, it would have been a neighborhood of detached single-family houses.My thesis in this Article is simple: if you were to visit that same neighborhood decades from now, it would remain virtually unchanged. One reason is economic: structures typically are built to last. But a second reason, and my focus here, is the impact of law. The politics of local zoning, a form of public land use regulation that has become ubiquitous in the United States during the past century, almost invariably works to freeze land uses in a neighborhood of houses.

…The zoning strait-jacket binds a large majority of urban land in the United States. Los Angeles and Chicago, two of the nation’s densest central cities, permit the building of only a detached house on, respectively, 75% and 79% of the areas they zone for residential use. In suburban areas, the percentage typically is far higher. In a companion study of zoning practices of thirty-seven suburbs in Silicon Valley, Greater New Haven, and Greater Austin, I found that, in the aggregate, these municipalities had set aside 91% of their residentially zoned land (71% of their total land area) exclusively for detached houses.

…Absent overly strict regulation, suppliers of goods in a market economy are able to adapt to changes in supply and demand conditions. The freezing of land uses in a broad swath of urban America prevents housing developers from responding to changes in consumer tastes about where and how to live.

I’m in India and they have similar problem, except in India it’s agricultural land that is frozen in place and made difficult to transform to new uses (in the process depriving farmers of the true value of one of their only assets and creating opportunities for regulatory arbitrage that politically-connected special interests exploit by buying at the farm price, obtaining approvals to convert that other cannot obtain and then selling at the much higher post-conversion price.)

Freezing agricultural land in place seems backward because ubanization is clearly India’s future but it’s no less backward than what has happened in the United States. In both cases, an important right in the land bundle was expropriated and collectivized and the market process of creative destruction impeded.

The post The Zoning Straight-Jacket appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

04 Feb 06:13

What is the best way to tax food?

by Tyler Cowen

We analyze how a sales tax levied on all food products impacts the consumption of healthy food, unhealthy food, and obesity. The sales tax can stimulate the consumption of healthy meals by lowering the time costs of food preparation. Moreover, the sales tax lowers obesity under more general conditions than a tax on unhealthy food (fat tax) and a subsidy on healthy food (thin subsidy). We calibrate the model using recent consumption and time use data from the US. The thin subsidy is counterproductive and increases weight. While both the sales tax and the fat tax mitigate obesity, the former imposes a lower excess burden on consumers.

It seems that if you try to tax fat directly, individuals can readily substitutes into other foodstuffs that are bad for them, or bad for their weight.  If you place a sales tax on food in general, individuals substitute into eating more at home, and there the food is healthier in the first place and furthermore the time-intensiveness of production will limit the number of dishes prepared and thus quantity and in turn obesity.

Here is the article by Zarko Kalamov, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post What is the best way to tax food? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

29 Jan 19:36

People seem to think Corona beer is related to the deadly Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, as searches for 'Corona beer virus' are trending (CORONA)

by Bill Bostock
Jack

Of course

corona beer coronavris wuhanReuters/Shutterstock

People appear to be fretting that the Mexican beer Corona Extra is somehow linked to the deadly coronavirus outbreak in China that's killed more than 130 people.

Searches for "corona beer virus," "beer virus," and "beer coronavirus" have increased substantially around the world since January 18, data from Google Trends shows.See the rest of the story at Business Insider

NOW WATCH: Applebee's made the best comeback of 2018. Here's how the restaurant chain turned around.

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29 Jan 13:22

Openings and Construction Starts Planned for 2020

by Yonah Freemark

20 new transit lines will open in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico in 2020.

These new transit lines won’t be adequate alone to counter the large-scale investment in highway construction that dominates most metropolitan regions. But they will significantly improve public transportation for thousands of riders in many large cities.

There’s also a lot more on the way. About 60 more major transit projects will be under construction in 2020 and are expected to open by 2026. Some cities, like Montréal and Seattle, will essentially double the size of their urban rail systems during that time.

Transit Explorer
Use Transit Explorer 2 to examine current, under construction, and proposed transit projects throughout North America.

This compilation of new transit projects is based on The Transport Politic’s transit database, Transit Explorer 2. This database is frequently updated and provides information about existing, under construction, proposed, and cancelled fixed-route transit throughout North America.

Thanks to support from Chicago Cityscape, Transit Explorer 2 is much faster and more usable for people accessing the site than previous versions.

In addition, the data it includes has been improved and expanded dramatically compared to the past. It includes almost 7000 transit stations (including for commuter rail, not previously included), and almost 1000 transit lines. Now additional information, such as the year that stations were opened and their grade—e.g. subway or elevated—is also available.

Data can be viewed freely on Transit Explorer 2 or purchased for $25 in Shapefile or GeoJSON formats for those who would like to use the data for research or other uses, such as using ArcGIS or QGIS.

This is the 12th year of my compilation of new transit projects on The Transport Politic. Find previous years here: 20092010 | 2011  | 2012  | 2013  | 2014  | 2015  | 2016  | 20172018 | 2019


New transit investments completed in 2019

In 2019, roughly 200 miles of new fixed-guideway transit service was opened throughout North America; these projects cost a total of roughly $7 billion to complete.

In Canada, the most exciting intervention was the opening of the Confederation Line in Ottawa, which includes a new downtown tunnel and a light rail network that replaces an oversubscribed busway; it is designed to eventually carry about 240,000 daily riders. The Confederation Line’s benefits will be magnified by several extensions planned for the next few years.

In the U.S., the opening of a new busway on 14th Street in Manhattan attracted considerable attention, as the project immediately increased transit ridership but did not ramp-up surrounding traffic. It may be a model for other American cities looking to improve their bus options—demonstrating that giving bus services dedicated lanes and freeing them from being stuck behind cars is an effective way to get people to ride.

Throughout this article click on to explore the line on Transit Explorer 2.

Regional rail (Relatively frequent service on mainline rail tracks) opened in 2019

  • Denver Gold Line—11.2 miles, part of an overall $2.1 billion project including other lines
  • SMART Train Phase 2—2.1 miles, $43 million
Denver Gold Line station at 41st and Fox. Credit: RTD.

Commuter rail opened in 2019

  • Fort Worth TexRail—27.2 miles, $1 billion

Metro rail opened in 2019

  • Panama Linea 2—13.1 miles

Light rail opened in 2019

  • Denver Southeast Rail Extension—2.3 miles, $233 million
  • Ottawa Confederation Line—7.7 miles, C$2.1 billion
  • Phoenix Gilbert Road Extension—1.9 miles, $184 million
  • Waterloo Ion Light Rail—11.8 miles, C$770 million

Bus rapid transit (Improved bus service with dedicated lanes) opened in 2019

Indianapolis Red Line. Credit: IndyGo.
  • Albuquerque ABQ Rapid Transit—14 miles, $133 million
  • Calgary Southwest Transitway—13.7 miles, C$304 million
  • Indianapolis Red Line—13.1 miles, $96 million
  • New York City M14 SBS
  • San Diego South Bay Rapid—26 miles, $126 million
  • Seattle Swift 2 Green Line—12.4 miles, $67 million

Arterial rapid transit (Improved bus service, but no dedicated lanes) opened in 2019

  • Chicago Pace Pulse Milwaukee—7.6 miles, $14 million
  • El Paso Brio Alameda—12.2 miles, $36 million
  • El Paso Brio Dyer—10.2 miles, $36 million
  • Kansas City Prospect MAX—10 miles, $56 million
  • Minneapolis C Line—$30 million
  • Tulsa Aero—18 miles

Planned openings in 2020

In 2020, several long-awaited projects will open across the continent, including three heavy-rail routes, two new light rail lines, two commuter or regional rail extensions, and 13 improved bus projects.

In Vancouver, the metropolitan region has already opened four RapidBus bus rapid transit routes, which include dedicated bus lanes, queue jumps, all-door boarding, and relatively high levels of frequencies. A fifth new line is planned for opening in April.

Miami’s new downtown station, to serve Tri-Rail trains. Credit: Tri-Rail.

In Miami, a new downtown rail link will leverage the infrastructure built by Virgin Trains to extend the region’s Tri-Rail commuter rail system into the center of the city for the first time.

But the largest investments by far are being completed in the Honolulu, Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, and Washington regions. In Hawaii, the first phase of that state’s first rail line—an elevated route—will open. In Los Angeles, the Crenshaw Line, a $2.1 billion light-rail route that includes a subway portion and a new station near LAX Airport, will be completed. In the Bay Area, the BART rapid transit system will continue its slow path toward downtown San Jose with a $2.4 billion extension to Berryessa station. And outside of Washington, the Silver Line will finally reach Dulles Airport, thanks to a $2.8 billion extension

L.A.’s Crenshaw Line tunnel at Martin Luther King Jr. station. Credit: L.A. Metro.

Each of these projects is considerably delayed compared to original projections. Honolulu’s rail transit first phase was supposed to open in 2012; the Crenshaw corridor was supposed to open in 2016. BART’s extension all the way into central San Jose—now put off for many years into the future, was supposed to open in 2018. And Metro service to Dulles was originally planned for 2016.

Regional Rail opening in 2020

Commuter rail opening in 2020

Metro rail opening in 2020

  • Honolulu: Rail Transit Phase 1—10 miles (East Kopolei to Aloha Stadium; remainder of project should open by 2025)
  • San Francisco Bay Area: BART to Berryessa—10 miles, $2.4 billion (first phase of project that will eventually extend to downtown San Jose and Santa Clara)
  • Washington: Silver Line Phase 2—11.4 miles, $2.8 billion (to Dulles and Loudoun County)

Light rail opening in 2020

Winnipeg’s Southwest Transitway, under construction. Credit: Winnipeg Transit.

Bus rapid transit opening in 2020

Arterial rapid transit opening in 2020


A busy decade to come

Despite the relatively limited investments made in transit improvements in the 2010s, cities throughout North America will expand their fixed-guideway transit networks substantially beyond 2020.

In this final section, I document all of the transit projects in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico that are already under construction or will enter construction in 2020 (at least preliminary work will be underway), and thus that are highly likely to be completed. The same cannot be said for the dozens of other proposed projects on Transit Explorer 2, many of which will fall to the wayside thanks to funding crises, political backlash, and other problems.

Four metropolitan regions will see extensive improvements to their transit systems in the coming years if projects under construction this year are completed.

Montréal will open the new REM automated heavy rail system in phases, roughly doubling the scale of its current metro network and creating new transit links throughout the metropolitan area.

A rendering of a future Montréal REM station. Credit: REM.

Thanks to referenda passed in 2016, both Los Angeles and Seattle will open large new extensions to their rail networks. In L.A., a new subway line will open to the west side, making travel to UCLA far less burdensome, and a light-rail subway downtown will allow commuters to travel from the west to the east side of the region without having to change trains. In Seattle, meanwhile, new light-rail extensions will open south, east, and north of the existing route, creating a regional transit network out of what is now a relatively limited service.

And in New York, the opening of the East Side Access project—which will bring Long Island Rail Road trains to Grand Central Terminal—and the Penn Station Access project—which will bring Metro-North trains to Penn Station—will radically improve the accessibility of the region’s central business district. The two projects will make it possible for people commuting from Connecticut and Long Island to have direct access to both the east and west sides of Manhattan’s central business district, saving hundreds of thousands of people each up to an hour a day in travel time.

The new terminal station under Grand Central for the East-Side Access Project. Credit: MTA.

In addition, Vancouver is expected to complete the first phase of its subway underneath Broadway—now the heaviest-used bus corridor in North America. Honolulu will complete its rail project. Boston will expand its urban rail transit system for the first time since the 1980s. San Francisco will get a new subway downtown for light-rail trains. And Washington will get the U.S.’ first true circumferential transit line with the Purple Line light-rail project.

Transit projects expected to open in 2021

Transit projects expected to open in 2022

Trans it projects expected to open in 2023

Transit projects expected to open in 2024

Transit projects expected to open in 2025

Transit projects expected to open in 2026


Despite the massive investments planned throughout North America in the coming years, cities throughout the U.S. and Canada should be investing considerably more in improved transit—especially through better buses. These countries continue to under-allocate street space for buses compared to much of the rest of the developed world, and the result is that most cities are failing to take advantage of the lowest-cost mechanism to improve public transportation options and reduce automobile dependency.

We can only hope that, as we move into the 2020s, more cities will learn from New York’s success on 14th Street and find the political means and financial capacity to dedicate more space on their streets to people, rather than to cars.


Image at top: Based on “Public Roads of the contiguous United States,” by WClarke (CC BY-SA 4.0).

28 Jan 02:03

This fork and spoon set has made mealtime with my toddler so much easier — it's designed so utensil tips don't hit the floor

by Michelle Piccolo
Jack

Is it just toddlers that need this?

  munchkin fork and spoon set

  • The smartly designed Munchkin Raise Toddler Fork and Spoon Set has been a mealtime constant in my home for more than a year.
  • The utensils are designed so the tips don't touch the floor when toddlers drop (or fling) them.
  • This toddler fork and spoon set has made mealtime with my son easier. I like it so much I've even started gifting it to other parents with toddlers.
  • For more toddler feeding solutions, check out our guide to the best sippy cups.
Product Embed:
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My son was the best eater as a baby, but as soon as he turned 1, he became a wild child who tossed food from his high chair at pretty much every meal. Toddler behavior sure is messy, right?See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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26 Jan 22:08

The Future of Death Tech Has No Rules—Yet

by Michael Waters
Jack

I hadn't heard about these methods.

Mortuary startups, like one that plans to freeze and shatter corpses, have run afoul of some fusty regulations.
26 Jan 18:19

Vancouver vending machine markets in everything

by Tyler Cowen

Health advocates say a safe supply of opioids is critical to help prevent people from overdosing on tainted street drugs.

Now, a pilot project in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside provides some high-risk users with access to an automated machine that dispenses opioids prescribed by a doctor…

The machine, called MySafe, is stocked with hydromorphone tablets that are released on a pre-determined schedule to high-risk opioid users. A user must scan their palm on the machine to identify themselves. The machine recognizes each individual by verifying the vein pattern in their hand and then dispenses their prescription.

Made of steel and bolted to the floor, MySafe resembles an ATM or vending machine. It logs every package that is released and sends that information to a web feed that only program administrators can access.

Here is the full article, please solve for the equilibrium.  Via Michelle Dawson.

The post Vancouver vending machine markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

26 Jan 18:18

When the market drives you crazy

by Tyler Cowen

That is the title of the paper, by Corrado Giuletti, Mirco Tonin, and Michael Vlassopoulos, the subtitle is “Stock market returns and fatal car accidents,” here is the abstract:

This paper provides evidence that daily fluctuations in the stock market have important–and hitherto neglected–spillover effects on fatal car accidents. Using the universe of fatal car accidents in the United States from 1990 to 2015, we find that a one standard deviation reduction in daily stock market returns is associated with a 0.6% increase in fatal car accidents that happen after the stock market opening. A battery of falsification tests support a causal interpretation of this finding. Our results are consistent with immediate emotions stirred by a negative stock market performance influencing the number of fatal accidents, in particular among inexperienced investors.

Forthcoming in Journal of Health Economics, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post When the market drives you crazy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

26 Jan 17:55

My Social Media Hiatus

Jack

I hope this starts a trend...

I’ll be travelling most of the next month, so this is a fine time to officially announce my election-year hiatus from social media.

Never fear, I will continue blogging for EconLog.  I will continue promoting my work on Facebook and Twitter.  I’ll still use social media to publicize social events, especially Capla-Con 2020.  However, from today until March 1, 2021, I will not participate in intellectual discussions on Facebook or Twitter.

My reason is simple: People go mad during presidential election years – and I refuse to be part of the madness.

Back in 2016, I wasn’t horrified by the election itself.  While 2016 was a revolting spectacle, I hedonically adapted to the revolting spectacle of democracy decades ago.

No, what horrified me in 2016 was the transformation of many of my friends.

What transformation did I witness?  I looked at many people that I had known for years, thinkers that I believed were – whatever our disagreements – rational and decent human beings.  And I watched as they willingly surrendered to partisan irrationality and myopic rage.  I saw brilliant minds proudly endorse frankly stupid positions.  Even when I agreed with the conclusions, the arguments were awful.  And arguments should not be awful.  The whole thing was about as entertaining as watching a bunch of my friends inject heroin.

Despite all this, I stayed on social media.  I tried to interpret the situation charitably.  Perhaps the fault was mine – and even the best of thinkers falls short on occasion, right?  Yet continuing the conversation with a calm and friendly tone did me little good.  By the end of 2016, I had lost close friends.  When I realized what had happened, I tried to win them back.  I would take any of them back today, no questions asked.  Yet the sad reality, I fear, is that these friends are forever lost to me.

This time around, then, I’m going to skip this ugliness, retreating deep into my Bubble.  I’ll return when the collective anger has cooled.  And no, I’m not defaulting on my “civic duty.” I’m doing my civic duty right now.  As Jason Brennan (The Ethics of Voting) and Chris Freiman (Why It’s OK to Ignore Politics) ably argue, you are under no obligation to participate in this election.  If you participate, though, you are obliged to remain a rational and decent human being the entire time.

(7 COMMENTS)
26 Jan 17:51

Capitalism is making the Chinese both better and happier

I recently discovered a long essay by Jean Fan on progress in China. Here is a small excerpt, but I’d encourage you to read the entire piece:

As soon as I walked out of Shanghai’s Pudong International Airport last March, something felt different. The cleanliness of the airport had always given way to the messiness of Chinese cities. But although I braced myself for the unavoidable chaos, it never came. The cities I visited that year—Shanghai, Wuhan, and Xiangyang—were unrecognizably clean. The cars were orderly. Even the people were quieter. . . .

China is changing in a deep and visceral way, and it is changing fast , in a way that is almost incomprehensible without seeing it in person. In contrast to America’s stagnation, China’s culture, self-concept, and morale are being transformed at a rapid pace—mostly for the better. . . .

China today feels unrecognizable compared to the China of ten years ago.

The China I visited growing up was not a nice place to be. It was dirty, poor, and desperate. I remember walking by peasant women and their children begging for food. I remember seeing wrinkled, exhausted-looking men lugging carts of coal around cities that never saw the sun—gray on gray on gray. I remember how sharply people treated each other, and how terrible it made me feel: how fiercely we had to haggle for things, how rude people were to strangers, and how cutthroat everyone was about their children doing well at gāokǎo (高考), the college entrance exam that still largely seals your fate, unless you’re well-off.

I had the same sort of impression when I visited China last August, although the changes didn’t seem quite so dramatic to me.  I suspect that the cultural changes in China are occurring because of the greatly increased used of private markets.  Economists from Adam Smith to Deirdre McCloskey have explored the various ways that markets encourage virtuous behavior.

Of course the state still plays a major role in China, and the Chinese state is far from virtuous.  But at least for most ordinary people in China, life is much better than a few decades ago. In the early reform era, more real income often meant the difference between life and death. More recently, the improved quality of life probably has more to do with people treating each other better than with having more material goods.

Some Chinese people have nostalgia for the Mao era, when (it is said) “everyone was poor but at least we were all equal, and there was less corruption.”  In fact, there was lots of inequality during the Mao era (the cities were much richer than the countryside), and also lots of corruption.  China is a textbook examples of markets making people more virtuous.

(24 COMMENTS)
26 Jan 17:43

No, Democrats. You can’t just wait for Trump supporters to die.

by Megan McArdle
Jack

Having one Hispanic parent myself, this is something both parties will have to grapple with.

Will today's young progressive firebrands be so progressive when they get older?
26 Jan 17:27

Trump’s Best Defense

by By Ross Douthat
It’s that he wants to be L.B.J., not Mussolini. (But that’s still a problem.)