14 Jun 23:50
by Atsushi Obata,
Yukimasa Adachi
Abstract
We used the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model to simulate the climate response to massive sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission from the volcanic eruptions of Paektusan (China/North Korea) and Eldgjá (Iceland) into the stratosphere in the tenth century Common Era (CE). Assuming 3 times the SO2 emission of the 1883 Krakatau eruption, as recorded by Greenland ice core sulfate concentrations, simulations of Paektusan and Eldgjá had roughly similar global mean impacts within 2 years of erupting: decreases in surface insolation (−10 W/m2, −5%), surface air temperature (−1 °C), land net primary production (NPP; −3 GtC/year, −5%), and soil respiration (−5 GtC/year, −10%). While both simulations had severe impacts on the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the simulated response to Paektusan is twice as strong as Eldgjá in the tropics (cooling [1 °C], precipitation decrease [10%], and NPP increase [7%]). Simulation‐Eldgjá had almost no impact on the extratropical Southern Hemisphere because of its initial latitude. These regional differences combine so that Simulation‐Paektusan has slightly larger global mean impacts, including an atmospheric CO2 decrease of ~2 ppm. Tropical NPP primarily increases due to the fact that photosynthesis maximizes at temperatures below the tropical mean temperature and secondarily to the cooling‐induced decrease in respiration, which indicates relatively rich tropical harvests despite large volcanic eruptions. In contrast, the severe cooling (−2.5 °C) and decreased NPP (−20%) in the northern extratropics could mean poor harvests and famines, which can lead to social turmoil such as a rebellion in northeast Japan around the same time as the eruptions.
30 Apr 02:10
by Junjiong Shao, Xuhui Zhou, Yiqi Luo, Guodong Zhang, Wei Yan, Jiaxuan Li, Bo Li, Li Dan, Joshua B. Fisher, Zhiqiang Gao, Yong He, Deborah Huntzinger, Atul K. Jain, Jiafu Mao, Jihua Meng, Anna M. Michalak, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Changhui Peng, Benjamin Poulter, Christopher R. Schwalm, Xiaoying Shi, Rui Sun, Fulu Tao, Hanqin Tian, Yaxing Wei, Ning Zeng, Qiuan Zhu, Wenquan Zhu
Abstract
Despite the importance of net primary productivity (NPP) and net biome productivity (NBP), estimates of NPP and NBP for China are highly uncertain. To investigate the main sources of uncertainty, we synthesized model estimates of NPP and NBP for China from published literature and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The literature-based results showed that total NPP and NBP in China were 3.35 ± 1.25 and 0.14 ± 0.094 Pg C yr−1, respectively. Classification and regression tree analysis based on literature data showed that model type was the primary source of the uncertainty, explaining 36% and 64% of the variance in NPP and NBP, respectively. Spatiotemporal scales, land cover conditions, inclusion of the N cycle, and effects of N addition also contributed to the overall uncertainty. Results based on the MsTMIP data suggested that model structures were overwhelmingly important (>90%) for the overall uncertainty compared to simulations with different combinations of time-varying global change factors. The interannual pattern of NPP was similar among diverse studies and increased by 0.012 Pg C yr−1 during 1981–2000. In addition, high uncertainty in China's NPP occurred in areas with high productivity, whereas NBP showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that to significantly reduce uncertainty in estimated NPP and NBP, model structures should be substantially tested on the basis of empirical results. To this end, coordinated distributed experiments with multiple global change factors might be a practical approach that can validate specific structures of different models.