Beet L. Jooz

Not all Santas are terrific at their job

Ron Paul declares POTUS decision "fantastic".

Police in Colorado released security camera footage of a woman donning a Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer disguise to commit a burglary.

'This is a reflection of Jesus' story'

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

A lot of talk last week centered around the potential for the Federal Reserve to revise their planned "normalization" of holdings on their balance sheet. In particular in the post FOMC press conference, Powell said, “I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose and I don’t see us changing that,”...and then “The amount of runoff that we have had so far is pretty small and if you just run the quantitative easing models in reverse, you would get a pretty small adjustment in economic growth, and real outcomes.” 

Trouble is, the correlation of changes in the Fed's balance sheet to asset prices are unambiguous that Powell is either unwittingly wrong or, more likely, knowingly collapsing an asset bubble that was in large part created by the Federal Reserve itself.

Fed Held Treasury's

To set the table, the chart below shows the total Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasury's (blue line) and weekly changes (yellow columns) from 2003 to present.  The August '07 through January '09 period is noteworthy as the only period with a like Treasury holding drawdown to what we are presently witnessing.  The subsequent highlighted areas show the periods of no growth in Treasury holdings, or most recently the outright declines.  The most recent period represents just $230 billion reduction of a proposed $1 trillion total "normalization" in Treasury holdings.

Perhaps the reason equities tanked when Powell suggested that the Fed's plan to normalize its balance sheet was on "auto-pilot" can be seen in the chart below.  Red line is the Wilshire 5000 (representing all publicly traded US equities) and yellow columns are the weekly change in the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury's.  On the five occasions (highlighted again) since 2007 that the Fed has ceased buying or outright sold Treasury's, the Wilshire has gone into convulsions or outright cracked lower.

*Of course the 2016-2017 period of Wilshire gains versus no gain in Treasury holdings can perhaps be explained by "yuge" increases in deficit spending, impending tax cuts, and record corporate profits / buybacks during the tail end of ZIRP?

Fed Held MBS
To round out the picture, the growth in Federal Reserve held MBS (mortgage backed securities).  Red line is total and blue line, the weekly change, since 2009.

For comparison sake, the relatively more benign (?) impact of the change in MBS holdings on the Wilshire 5000.

And if we stack the weekly change in the Fed's Treasury and MBS holdings together against the Wilshire 5000...and extrapolate that this is just the beginning of a process that will continue until either the market collapses or the Fed has finished "normalization" sometime in 2021(?), the rush to the exits may be more easily understood.

Finally, we narrow in from 2017 through present (plus a callout for the initiation of the Fed's balance sheet reduction).  As the Fed has been ramping up its reductions, the market has become increasingly unstable even before the most recent fall began.

So What?

The Fed is communicating that they have shed less than $400 billion of perhaps a total $2 trillion "normalization".  Given the major market impacts during the relatively minor balance sheet reductions in 2007 and again at present, there is every reason to believe a 50%+ fall in the asset prices is imminent absent a policy "U-turn" by the Fed. 

Of course, that "U-turn" would (will)  be an admission that the process of hyper-monetization that began in 2009 was and still is a one-way ticket.

'FBI families will spend Christmas without a paycheck'

Wall Street was once again, predictably, caught completely by surprise and off guard by the ongoing plunge in the market.

The chart below shows the point delta between the average sellside consensus S&P500 forecast and the actual level of the S&P500. Clearly, the point difference has never been greater.

Of course, with the S&P well in the 2,000 point range (for now), the point difference also reflects the high absolute level of the S&P500.

What about on a ratio basis? Well, here too the delta has exploded in recent weeks, although it is still just shy of the record spread achieved during the financial crisis.

What does this mean? Absent a sharp and quick rebound in the coming weeks, expect Wall Street, which only recently came out with their euphoric 2019 market forecasts, to admit they were all wrong and to start slashing their forecasts for the coming year, adding even more downside pressure as plain vanilla funds no longer have sellside analysts target to hide behind.

The "Hubble" wreath

It’s just a Christmas portrait of President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump.

There’s no international policy involved. No national policy. No immigration policy. No comment on the media. No comment on Democrats. No hint of the 2020 election. Nothing.

Yet the leftists in America still are losing their cool over the image.

Apparently, just being it’s President Trump and his wife.

At Twitchy was the comment about how “super-harpy” Ana Navarro was losing it over the image.

“Navarro gives Scrooge a run for his money with nasty tweet about the Trump’s Christmas portrait,” the commentary said.

Her snark? “I really don’t care. Do u?”

The image was released by the White House and carried by multiple news outlets, including ABC News.

“Honestly, it’s a lovely, festive photo, and a tradition that’s been around forever … so cue the crazies shrieking about how much they hate the Trumps,” Twitchy said. “It’s a Christmas picture of the president and first lady, THE OUTRAGE. HOW DARE THEY?”

“We get it Ana, you hate Trump and Melania and ooh, what clever snark using the first lady’s jacket from earlier this year BUT give it a rest, it’s almost Christmas and this is just a Christmas photo. You can play the whole, ‘Look at how edgy I am I hate the president’ card all you want in 2019,” the commentary said.

Navarro, however, was just the start of the whine.

“I hate them,” said Lauren F.

“Short and sweet and to the point. I agree,” added another anonymous commenter.

Several asked about the president’s son, Barron, and why he was not in the picture, and Norm Harriman said he was “probably at his foster parents.”

The president’s son was not the only one being attacked. Someone has photoshopped the nearly-nude image of a model in where Melania was in the original.

Another called her a “long-term paid escort.”

“William J. Plaud said, “At least Grinch had a heart, and learned from his mistake.”

Wrote Brandon Horan, “I look forward to their next official portraits: mugshots.”

One exhibited a whole lot of issues, stating, “So the #FakeChristian GOP, upset that Jesus was missing from Christmas, brought religion back into the holidays by putting the devil in the WH.”

The comments then deteriorated to the level that includes “Have yourself a porny little Christmas.”

The post Trump Christmas portrait enrages left appeared first on WND.

A mall in the United Arab Emirates was awarded a Guinness World Record for a Christmas bauble ornament with a 15-foot, 4-inch diameter.

Louisiana has ramped up its push to collect more sales taxes from internet purchases.

'This is about saving kids'

Authored by Celine Ryan via Campus Reform,

Campus Reform rounded up the top five instances of students and professors branding others "white supremacist" or teaching about the concept in class...

Institutions from Salisbury University in Maryland, all the way to California State University-Dominguez Hills have made the list.

1.  That time some conservative students tried to buy coffee in their MAGA hats

Students at Fordham University staged a protest against “white supremacy.”  The hour-and-a-half-long protest consisted of chants like “hate speech is not free speech” and signs reading “White Supremacy Kills."

“Fordham’s policies and protection of white supremacy is putting people at risk,” one student shouted into a megaphone. Another explained that the protest was meant to elicit a response from university administration. 

When asked to provide evidence of white supremacy on their campus, protesters recalled an incident to The Fordham Ram in which a student in charge of an on-campus coffee shop was disciplined for asking College Republicans to leave because of their Make America Great Again gear.

Protesters said showing up to the coffee house in Trump swag was “threatening behavior” and argued that Fordham’s actions constituted “protection of white supremacy.”

2.  The professor that went full #Resist in her course syllabus

California State University-Dominguez Hills professor Dr. Brooke Mascagni included in her course syllabus an explanation that President Donald Trump “won the 2016 election by appealing to hatred and bigotry."

The syllabus went on to blame the January government shutdown on Republicans.

"Moreover, the Republican Party controls the executive and legislative branches of government, yet couldn’t manage to keep the government running on the one year anniversary of Trump’s inauguration,” it said.

“And, oh yeah, Russia interfered with the U.S. electoral process and our president is under investigation for obstruction of justice,” Mascagni added.

"Future generations will wonder how the people of what was once considered the greatest democracy in the world elected a white supremacist, misogynist, narcissistic, volatile, belligerent, uninformed, stubborn, failed businessman and orange reality star to the highest office,” she wrote.

3. The 'White Supremacy' checklist

In case you aren’t sure whether or not you’re a white supremacist, a Linfield College English professor made a handy checklist to help you figure it out.

Reshmi Dutt-Ballerstadt published her checklist in a January Inside Higher Edop-ed meant to help individuals determine whether or not they were actively “supporting white supremacy.”

Transgressions on the list included working “in a position of power in a predominantly white institution” and not making an effort “to change the white supremacist power structures within your departments, committees and institutional decision-making process.”

A desire to suggest “‘stellar’ (mostly men) and obviously ‘white’” colleagues for promotions and recognition also helps to aid white supremacy, according to Dutt-Ballerstadt. This type of thinking lends itself to an unacceptable "logic of meritocracy that is built on this racist assumption that everyone has had the same access and opportunities.”

4.  The ‘white supremacy’ event held in response to Ben Shapiro’s campus visit

Jewish conservative commentator Ben Shapiro paid a visit to the University of Minnesota for a speaking engagement. The event spurred an ample amount of controversy on campus, as Shapiro’s speeches often do.

In response to this controversy, the university’s Women’s Center scheduled its own event titled “White Supremacy in the Age of Trump: An Anti-Racist Teach-In” directly before Shapiro’s speech. The event had the stated goal of “mapping the connections between white extremist groups and American conservatism today,” as well as "unpacking the ways white supremacy manifests itself in systems, language, and culture.”

“We do not know whether Ben Shapiro is a white supremacist,” organizers of the event told Campus Reform. “What we know is that we have received an outpouring of support.”

5.  The ‘Pyramid of White Supremacy'

Students at Maryland’s Salisbury University are required to take a course called “Diversity and the Self” in order to obtain an elementary education major.

This year, the course employed the use of a “Pyramid of White Supremacy,” which ranked different actions that, in theory, allow white supremacy to exist. The actions were placed in a hierarchy, with “indifference” on the bottom, all the way up to “genocide” at the top.

“In a pyramid, every brick depends upon the one below it for support,” a caption explained. “If the bricks at the bottom are removed, the whole structure comes tumbling down.”

Actions such as “remaining apolitical,” saying things like “politics doesn’t affect me,” and “avoiding confrontation with racist family members" were classified as indifference. The next level was titled “minimization,” and included things like speaking over people of color, or believing in a post-racial society.

Step by step, the pyramid increased in severity, from “veiled racism” such as the “bootstrap theory” of lifting oneself up by one’s own bootstraps, to “discrimination” such as “stop and frisk,” to “calls for violence” such as cross burning, until the analogy comes to a close with the “genocide” section. 

Salisbury students were quizzed on the pyramid, which implied that phrases such as “Why can’t we all just get along?” were complicit in supporting the mass murder of individuals based on race. 

“This class was extremely difficult to get through if you did not think like a liberal. Instead of teaching diversity, this class taught us that being white was a bad thing,” one student told Campus Reform. “We were told that we were only privileged because we are white and basically we did not actually work for what we have.”

Actor William Shatner criticized the feminist backlash against the Christmas classic "Baby, It's Cold Outside" in a recent interview, calling the #MeToo movement "hysterical."

Two people arrested in England on suspicion of the criminal use of drones are no longer considered suspects, Sussex Police said.

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) appeared on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday to discuss President Donald Trump pulling out American troops from Syria, a policy for which Sen. Paul is the most vocal supporter. Paul told host Jake Tapper that it was a move long overdue and ISIS is defeated.

“In the last 20 years,” Tapper asked the non-interventionist Republican, “is there any act with U.S. Intervention with military force abroad that you support?”

“Yes. After we were attacked on 9/11, I did support to go into Afghanistan. I would’ve voted for the resolution,” replied Paul. “But we’re ignoring the resolution, it said we’d go after those who planned, abetted, aided the people who attacked us. It never said anything about associated forces. It never said anything about war in Yemen, Somalia, Mali, Syria. None of this was ever authorized by Congress. So what we’re doing in like seven different war theaters right now is unconstitutional and we shouldn’t be doing it.”

“I would have declared victory long ago and come home,” he said. “When the president declares victory over ISIS, he’s exactly right. We took back 99% of their land. Aren’t these people going to stand up and now fight for themselves? Can they not do anything?”

The words “themselves” and “these people” refer in this context to the Syrians specifically, and the residents of Muslim nations in the Middle East more generally, as Paul explained to Tapper, saying that our presence there is unwelcome.

“It doesn’t work to have Americans there, policing Muslim lands. It just engenders more terrorism. The longer Americans stay, the more terrorism you’ll have,” he said. He indicated that American forces are so “forward-deployed” around the globe that “we can attack on a moment’s notice from anywhere,” and that therefore withdrawal doesn’t mean being unable to act or intervene in the future.

“But really the people who live there, the Muslims who live in these lands need to police the Muslims who live in these lands,” he said. “If it’s Americans it will always be seen as those who live there as some sort of religious crusade and it encourages more terrorism.”

“So the sooner we get out of that mess, the better,” he concluded.

Watch the clip above, courtesy of CNN.

[Featured image via screengrab]

—

Follow Caleb Howe (@CalebHowe) on Twitter

Shadow transport secretary Andy McDonald said the government had taken its 'eye off the ball'

Remembering 1968: How Apollo 8 sent a timeless holiday greeting from the heavens  CBS News

On Christmas Eve 1968, the first humans to circle the Moon sent back the first image of a beautiful, fragile Earth, home to us all.

View full coverage on Google News

'Very possible' partial government shutdown will last into the new year, Mulvaney says  Fox News

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director and incoming Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney told "Fox News Sunday" that the partial ...

View full coverage on Google News

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A Lump Of Coal

Last week, I discussed the potential for a “Santa Claus” rally as we head into the end of the year based on both the more extreme levels of short-term oversold conditions coupled with the statistical tendencies going back to 1990. To wit:

“IF ‘Santa’ is going to visit ‘Broad & Wall’ this year, it will most likely occur between the 10th through the 17th trading days of the month. Such would equate to Friday, December 14th through Wednesday, December 26th.

While the current oversold condition is supportive of a rally over the next couple of weeks, that does not mean this is a ‘stocking’ you should stuff everything into. Given the macro-backdrop, any rally may be short-lived going into 2019 unless some of the pressure from weaker economic data, Brexit, Washington politics, “trade wars”, balance sheet reductions, and softer-earnings growth is relieved.”

Well, I was clearly wrong.

After being good all year, all investors got last week was a “big lump of coal.”

The relief that was needed to allow the “bulls” to take charge, at least temporarily, failed to materialize.

• Trump doubled down on his “trade war” rhetoric.

• He picked a fight to “shut down” the Government over border wall funding.

• Economic data continued to weaken this past week in some of the most important areas

• The Fed said they will continue their balance sheet reductions 

• They are also on track to continue hiking rates regardless of financial market conditions

• Fed Ex’s global outlook noted marked deterioration in the past quarter. 

• Geopolitical stresses continue to rise from France, to Russia, and China.

• Chinese economic growth has weakened markedly which is an immediate feedback into the U.S. economy.

This past week was one of the worst December performances on record.

How about some Christmas cheer?

The market has not been this oversold at any point in the last 20-years, on a monthly basis, as shown in the chart below.

The other bit of good cheer for the bulls is that unlike the previous two starts to more protracted bear markets, the long-term monthly uptrend has not been broken, yet. As noted above, the market is sitting on that uptrend support line which began in 2009.

At this point, the risk/reward for traders is clearly sided to the bulls…for now.

Unfortunately, given that we have now triggered a monthly sell signal for only the 4th time in 20-years the longer-term outlook remains with the bears. As you will notice in both of the previous “bear” markets, oversold conditions reversed even as the bear market continued.

Here is another way to look at it.

When I look at price indicators, I like for an individual signal to be confirmed by other indicators which are measuring different aspects of the market. This helps reduce the number of false signals a single indicator can provide over time. The chart below combines several measures of the market into one monthly chart to look for periods of uniform confirmation.

There are two important points to take away from this chart:

1. With all of the signals now confirming a “bear” market is likely in progress, such does not mean there can not be substantial counter-trend rallies to sell into, and;

2. If this is indeed the beginning of a “bear” market, there is likely substantially more downside to go before a lasting bottom is formed and valuations are “mean reverted.” 

But that is just my take.

Tim Hayes of Ned Davis Research recently suggested a cut to the recommended equity allocation for a second time since October. Down by 10 percentage points to 40 percent, the assigned proportion is the lowest since 2008 and has “reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for equity allocation.”

The downgrade comes as the MSCI World All-Country Index heads for its worst quarter in seven years. Stocks may not find a floor before March because the research firm’s models on market trends and breadth keep deteriorating and extreme fear has yet to emerge.

“Advising maximum defensive positioning whatever your constraints and risk tolerance, we would view any rallying as an opportunity to lighten up ahead of increasing volatility in 2019. We have not seen the levels of panic, volatility, and downside volume needed to consider the market sufficiently washed out for the start of a bottoming process.

Market conditions will get worse before they get better.'”

Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world, recently stated: 

“The biggest theme developing is that you are going to have significantly weaker growth, near recession-level growth in 2019, based on our measures, and the markets are generally not pricing that in.

Although the movement has been in that direction, the degree of [ the market’s decline] is still small relative to what we are seeing in terms of the shifts in likely economic conditions.  2019 will be a year of weaker growth and central banks struggling to move from their current tightening stance to easing and finding it difficult to ease because they have very little ammunition to ease.”

All of this should sound very familiar if you have been reading our work over the past year.

• Lower Yields
• Weaker Economic Growth
• Weaker Corporate Profits
• Recessionary Onset
• Bear Market

I think that Carl Swenlin summed it all up best:

“Less than three months ago there was a great lament about how employers couldn’t fill job positions because of a shortage of job seekers. This week FedEx announced voluntary employee buyouts, presumably to reduce payroll. In view of this, I offer you the Swenlin Basic Economic Theory:

Things get better and better, until they are as good as they’re going to get. Then they get worse and worse, until they are as bad as they’re going to get. Repeat cycle.

If you have a kid headed for college to study economics, think how much money I just saved you. Seriously though, the BPI (Bullish Percent Index), which is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks on technical BUY signals, shows that conditions are worse than they have been for almost 10 years. What may offer some hope to the bulls is that the low readings in 2011 and 2015/16 set the market up for major rallies. The problem is that those setups occurred during a secular bull market, and I think a secular bear market has begun. The two periods I have bracketed between 2000 and 2009 are probably more typical of what we are going to experience.”

“Based upon that, it’s probably going to get worse.”

More and more evidence continues to mount that a bear market has begun.

Again, as I stated above, it doesn’t mean we can’t have some extremely strong reflexive rallies along the way. When they do occur, the media will presume the bull market has returned and encourage you to jump in.

Don’t.

There will be a time when the market trends have resumed a positive, healthy, trend.

Currently, that is not the case.

After have been stopped out of Emerging, International, Small Caps and Mid Caps earlier this year. We were stopped out of some of our core positions last week as well.

With a lot of cash on hand, and our bond portfolio (which we have consistently recommended buying bonds above 3% despite all the rhetoric about the end of the bond bull market) performing well, there is little for us to do right now except wait.

In the meantime, all of us at Real Investment Advice and RIA Pro want to wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and a happy and safe New Year.

Merry Christmas

Waves pulled hundreds of unsuspecting victims into the ocean

AMERICAN THINKER Asylum-seeking is well known for its distorted incentives and abuses. Now Austria of all places is calling it [READ MORE]

The post Austria flips the ‘narrative’ on migrant asylum, turning fire to human smugglers appeared first on The Savage Nation.

(CAMPUS REFORM) — A College Republicans chapter at the University of Maine apologized for a “Deck the Wall” end-of-year party before it even happened after receiving complaints and “feedback.”

The Dec. 15 party, designed as an opportunity to engage the campus community in political discussion, received criticism from various members of the UMaine campus, leaving many confused as to the point of the event, according to a UMaine spokeswoman.

“After several people expressed concern that they didn’t understand the purpose of the event, University of Maine Student Life staff reached out to the organizers to give them this feedback,” UMaine spokeswoman Margaret Nagle told Campus Reform.

The post College GOP sorry in advance for 'Deck the Wall' party appeared first on WND.

The “tort reform” idea being discussed so frequently by the Louisiana business community this Christmas season really started three days into George W. Bush’s tenure as Texas governor in January 1995.

President Donald Trump asked General Jim Mattis to leave his position as Secretary of Defense early, after his decision to resign.