Lluís

Species–area (SAR) and endemics–area (EAR) relationships are amongst the most common methods used to forecast species loss resulting from habitat loss. One critical, albeit often ignored, limitation of these area-based estimates is their disregard of the ecological context that shapes species distributions. In this study, we estimate species loss using a spatially explicit mechanistic simulation model to evaluate three important aspects of ecological context: coexistence mechanisms (e.g. species sorting, competition–colonization tradeoffs and neutral dynamics), spatial distribution of environmental conditions, and spatial pattern of habitat loss. We found that 1) area-based estimates of extinctions are sensitive to coexistence mechanisms as well as to the pattern of environmental heterogeneity; 2) there is a strong interaction between coexistence mechanisms and the pattern of habitat loss; 3) SARs always yield higher estimates of species loss than do EARs; and 4) SARs and EARs consistently underestimate the realized species loss. Our results highlight the need to integrate ecological mechanisms in area-estimates of species loss.

1. Clearcutting has been identified as a main threat to forest biodiversity. In the last few decades, alternatives to clearcutting have gained much interest. Living and dead trees are often retained after harvest to serve as structural legacies to mitigate negative effects of forestry. However, this practice is widely employed without information from systematic before–after control-impact studies to assess the processes involved in species responses after clearcutting with retention.
2. We performed a large-scale survey of the occurrence of logging-sensitive and red-listed bryophytes and lichens before and after clearcutting with the retention approach. A methodology was adopted that, for the first time in studies on retention approaches, enabled monitoring of location-specific substrates. We used uncut stands as controls to assess the variables affecting the survival of species after a major disturbance.
3. In total, 12 bryophyte species and 27 lichen species were analysed. All were classified as sensitive to logging, and most species are also currently red-listed. We found that living and dead trees retained after final harvest acted as refugia in which logging-sensitive species were able to survive for 3 to 7 years after logging. Depending on type of retention and organism group, between 35% and 92% of the species occurrences persisted on retained structures. Most species observed outside retention trees or patches disappeared.
4. Larger pre-harvest population sizes of bryophytes on dead wood increased the survival probability of the species and hence buffered the negative effects of logging.
5. Synthesis and applications. Careful spatial planning of retention structures is required to fully embrace the habitats of logging-sensitive species. Bryophytes and lichens persisted to a higher degree in retention patches compared to solitary trees or in the clearcut area. Retaining groups of trees in logged areas will help to sustain populations of species over the clearcut phase. When possible, old logs should be moved into retention patches to provide a more beneficial environment for dead wood-dependent species. Our study also highlights the need for more before–after control-impact studies of retention forestry to explore factors influencing the survival of species after logging.

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Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand-level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear-cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of −0.13 °C at a deciduous site and −0.25 °C at a clear-cut site were observed over a 6-year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes – despite predicted long-term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business-as-usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO₂ emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned −8 to −159 Tg-CO₂-eq., depending on whether near-term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately −20 to −300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon-only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive – and at best – suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a tool to mitigate global warming.

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1. Plant communities and their ecosystem functions are expected to be more resilient to future habitat fragmentation and deterioration if the species comprising the communities have a wide range of dispersal and persistence strategies. However, the extent to which the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in plant communities is determined by the current and historical characteristics of sites and their surrounding landscape has yet to be explored.
2. Using quantitative information on long-distance seed dispersal potential by wind and animals (dispersal in space) and on species' persistence/longevity (dispersal in time), we (i) compared levels of dispersal and persistence trait diversity (functional richness, FRic, and functional divergence, FDiv) in seminatural grassland plant communities with those expected by chance, and (ii) quantified the extent to which trait diversity was explained by current and historical landscape structure and local management history – taking into account spatial and phylogenetic autocorrel.
3. Null model analysis revealed that more grassland communities than expected had a level of trait diversity that was lower or higher than predicted, given the level of species richness. Both the range (FRic) and divergence (FDiv) of dispersal and persistence trait values increased with grassland age. FDiv was mainly explained by the interaction between current grazing intensity and the amount of grassland habitat in the surrounding landscape in 1938.
4. Synthesis. The study suggests that the variability of dispersal and persistence traits in grassland plant communities is driven by deterministic assembly processes, with both history and current management (and their interactions), playing a major role as determinants of trait diversity. While a long continuity of grazing management is likely to have promoted the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in present-day grasslands, communities in sites that are well grazed at the present day, and were also surrounded by large amounts of grassland in the past, showed the highest diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies. Our results indicate that the historical context of a site within a landscape will influence the extent to which current grazing management is able to maintain a diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies and buffer communities (and their associated functions) against continuing habitat fragmentation.

Interactions between landscape history and current management are a major determinant of the diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies within grassland plant communities. The ability of within-site management to buffer communities, and their associated functions, against habitat fragmentation is likely to be influenced by the historical landscape-context of a site.

The effect of changing climatic conditions on wild populations has been the subject of much recent research. Most attention has been on the direct effects of climate changes on species of lower trophic levels and on the negative consequences of climate change. However, a deeper understanding of how climate change affects apex predators is vital, as they are keystone species that have a disproportionate effect on ecosystems. Studying survival in an apex predator requires individual-based data from long-term studies and is complicated by the integration of climatic effects on lower trophic levels. Here we assess how climate affects the survival of the Common Buzzard Buteo buteo. We analysed the survival of 670 males and 669 females over the period 1989–2011, during which time our study population quadrupled. We used mark–recapture survival analysis of individual resightings of breeding adults to identify the environmental factors best explaining survival. A decrease in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index increased survival to an extent that largely explains the population increase. This might be caused by higher Common Vole Microtus arvalis survival in drier conditions and under snow cover. Buzzard survival appeared to increase more for males than for females, possibly due to the males' higher sensitivity to winter food availability resulting from their smaller body mass. However, we also found that the effect of NAO strongly depended on the area in which individuals lived, especially for females. This may have been caused by the recolonization of Eagle Owls Bubo bubo in some parts of our study area. This study suggests that climatic changes can have complex effects on species of higher trophic levels via an interaction with their prey.

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The Second Plenary Meeting of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES-2) opens today in Antalya, Turkey, with welcome remarks from Hon. Dr. Nurettin Akman, Vice-Minister of the Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, Turkey and from Ibrahim Thiaw, UNEP's Deputy Executive Director.

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Alfred Oteng-Yeboah, Ghana,pays tribute to Nelson Mandela, during the opening session of IPBES-2 (photo by ENB)

Dr. Nurettin Akman, Vice -Monister fro Forest and Water Affairs, Turkey and Ibrahim Thiaw, UNEP's Deputy Executive Director providing their opening remarks (photos by ENB)

1. An ever-increasing number of studies use tools from community phylogenetics to infer the processes underlying the assembly of communities. However, very few studies simultaneously use experimental approaches to characterize the ecological niches of species and directly assess the importance of these structuring processes.
2. In this study, we developed an experimental approach for quantifying the use of four types of food resources and three habitat templets in temperate forest ant assemblages. We then used null models to assess whether niches overlapped more or less than expected by chance. Finally, we integrated comparative phylogenetic methods with experimental data on niche use to assess the degree of phylogenetic signal in several key components of the niche.
3. We found that niche filtering, rather than partitioning, was the predominant structuring force. Niche filtering resulted from conservatism in habitat niches in evolutionary time and limitations in the availability of food resources in ecological time.
4. Our study thus supports the idea that similarities in niches among species, rather than the differences, drive the assembly of ant communities.

This work combines experimental, phylogenetic and null modelling approaches to ask an age-old question: How do species co-occur at the same place at the same time? The experiments were carried out in forest sites such as this one in southern Appalachia.

Simulation models are widely used to represent the dynamics of ecological systems. A common question with such models is how changes to a parameter value or functional form in the model alter the results. Some authors have chosen to answer that question using frequentist statistical hypothesis tests (e.g. ANOVA). This is inappropriate for two reasons. First, p-values are determined by statistical power (i.e. replication), which can be arbitrarily high in a simulation context, producing minuscule p-values regardless of the effect size. Second, the null hypothesis of no difference between treatments (e.g. parameter values) is known a priori to be false, invalidating the premise of the test. Use of p-values is troublesome (rather than simply irrelevant) because small p-values lend a false sense of importance to observed differences. We argue that modelers should abandon this practice and focus on evaluating the magnitude of differences between simulations.

Synthesis

Researchers analyzing field or lab data often test ecological hypotheses using frequentist statistics (t-tests, ANOVA, etc.) that focus on p-values. Field and lab data usually have limited sample sizes, and p-values are valuable for quantifying the probability of making incorrect inferences in that situation. However, modern ecologists increasingly rely on simulation models to address complex questions, and those who were trained in frequentist statistics often apply the hypothesis-testing approach inappropriately to their simulation results. Our paper explains why p-values are not informative for interpreting simulation models, and suggests better ways to evaluate the ecological significance of model results.

Reconstructions of dry western US forests in the late 19th century in Arizona, Colorado and Oregon based on General Land Office records were used by Williams & Baker (2012; Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 1042–1052; hereafter W&B) to infer past fire regimes with substantial moderate and high-severity burning. The authors concluded that present-day large, high-severity fires are not distinguishable from historical patterns. We present evidence of important errors in their study. First, the use of tree size distributions to reconstruct past fire severity and extent is not supported by empirical age–size relationships nor by studies that directly quantified disturbance history in these forests. Second, the fire severity classification of W&B is qualitatively different from most modern classification schemes, and is based on different types of data, leading to an inappropriate comparison. Third, we note that while W&B asserted ‘surprising’ heterogeneity in their reconstructions of stand density and species composition, their data are not substantially different from many previous studies which reached very different conclusions about subsequent forest and fire behaviour changes. Contrary to the conclusions of W&B, the preponderance of scientific evidence indicates that conservation of dry forest ecosystems in the western United States and their ecological, social and economic value is not consistent with a present-day disturbance regime of large, high-severity fires, especially under changing climate.

Large-scale multi-species data on population changes of alpine or arctic species are largely lacking. At the same time, climate change has been argued to cause poleward and uphill range shifts and the concomitant predicted loss of habitat may have drastic effects on alpine and arctic species. Here we present a multi-national bird indicator for the Fennoscandian mountain range in northern Europe (Finland, Sweden and Norway), based on 14 common species of montane tundra and subalpine birch forest. The data were collected at 262 alpine survey plots, mainly as a part of geographically representative national breeding bird monitoring schemes. The area sampled covers around 1/4 million km², spanning 10 degrees of latitude and 1600 km in a northeast–southwest direction. During 2002–2012, nine of the 14 bird species declined significantly in numbers, in parallel to higher summer temperatures and precipitation during this period compared to the preceding 40 yr. The population trends were largely parallel in the three countries and similar among montane tundra and subalpine birch forest species. Long-distance migrants declined less on average than residents and short-distance migrants. Some potential causes of the current decline of alpine birds are discussed, but since montane bird population sizes may show strong natural annual variation due to several factors, longer time series are needed to verify the observed population trends. The present Fennoscandian monitoring systems, which from 2010 onwards include more than 400 montane survey plots, have the capacity to deliver a robust bird indicator in the climate-sensitive mountainous regions of northernmost Europe for conservation purposes.