Lluís

Beta diversity can be measured in different ways. Among these, the total variance of the community data table Y can be used as an estimate of beta diversity. We show how the total variance of Y can be calculated either directly or through a dissimilarity matrix obtained using any dissimilarity index deemed appropriate for pairwise comparisons of community composition data. We addressed the question of which index to use by coding 16 indices using 14 properties that are necessary for beta assessment, comparability among data sets, sampling issues and ordination. Our comparison analysis classified the coefficients under study into five types, three of which are appropriate for beta diversity assessment. Our approach links the concept of beta diversity with the analysis of community data by commonly used methods like ordination and anova. Total beta can be partitioned into Species Contributions (SCBD: degree of variation of individual species across the study area) and Local Contributions (LCBD: comparative indicators of the ecological uniqueness of the sites) to Beta Diversity. Moreover, total beta can be broken up into within- and among-group components by manova, into orthogonal axes by ordination, into spatial scales by eigenfunction analysis or among explanatory data sets by variation partitioning.

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Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation.

1. There has long been a debate amongst conservation biologists about how agricultural land use should be distributed spatially. Advocates of land sparing argue that high-intensity food production on small units of land will conserve more natural habitat than low-intensity farming spread across larger areas. Others argue that less intensive production over a greater area of land will reduce the overall load of human stressors upon ecosystems.
2. Although agricultural and urban systems have traditionally been considered as different fields of research, there are strong parallels between the two landscapes in the patterns of their spatial configuration and the trade-offs associated with their development. Continued and rapid urbanization, with associated losses in vegetation, highlights the need for a uniting spatial framework to assess the ecological impacts of urbanization. Here, we apply some of the thinking emerging from the agricultural land-sparing debate to urbanization, review the similarities and differences between the two systems and set out a research agenda.
3. Intensification of urban systems to increase housing density leads to buildings being interspersed with small tracts of natural or semi-natural habitat patches (e.g. forest patches, parks). Urban extensification, on the other hand, is characterized by sprawling suburbanization with less concentrated, more distributed green space, often predominantly in the form of backyard or streetscape vegetation. We argue that regional scale analyses are urgently needed to determine which of these patterns of urban growth has a lower overall impact on biodiversity and to explore the geographical and taxonomic variation in the most ecologically appropriate city layout.
4. Synthesis and applications. The spatial pattern of urban development will affect biodiversity conservation within and beyond a city's borders. We chart the early progress of empirical work on the land-sparing debate in an urban context and suggest that to yield development patterns that minimize overall ecological impact, urban planners must work at the scale of at least the entire city rather than on a case-by-case basis.

The range of resources that a species uses (i.e. its niche breadth) might determine the geographical area it can occupy, but consensus on whether a niche breadth–range size relationship generally exists among species has been slow to emerge. The validity of this hypothesis is a key question in ecology in that it proposes a mechanism for commonness and rarity, and if true, may help predict species' vulnerability to extinction. We identified 64 studies that measured niche breadth and range size, and we used a meta-analytic approach to test for the presence of a niche breadth–range size relationship. We found a significant positive relationship between range size and environmental tolerance breadth (z = 0.49), habitat breadth (z = 0.45), and diet breadth (z = 0.28). The overall positive effect persisted even when incorporating sampling effects. Despite significant variability in the strength of the relationship among studies, the general positive relationship suggests that specialist species might be disproportionately vulnerable to habitat loss and climate change due to synergistic effects of a narrow niche and small range size. An understanding of the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that drive and cause deviations from this niche breadth–range size pattern is an important future research goal.

The determinants of local species richness in plant communities have been the subject of much debate. Is species richness the result of stochastic events such as dispersal processes, or do local environmental filters sort species into communities according to their ecological niches? Recent studies suggest that these two processes simultaneously limit species richness, although their relative importance may vary in space and time. Understanding the limiting factors for species richness is especially important in light of the ongoing global warming, as new species establish in resident plant communities as a result of climate-driven migration. We examined the relative importance of dispersal and environmental filtering during seedling recruitment and plant establishment in an alpine plant community subjected to seed addition and long-term experimental warming. Seed addition increased species richness during the seedling recruitment stage, but this initial increase was cancelled out by a corresponding decrease in species richness during plant establishment, suggesting that environmental filters limit local species richness in the long term. While initial recruitment success of the sown species was related to both abiotic and biotic factors, long-term establishment was controlled mainly by biotic factors, indicating an increase in the relative importance of biotic interactions once plants have germinated in a microhabitat with favourable abiotic conditions. The relative importance of biotic interactions also seemed to increase with experimental warming, suggesting that increased competition within the resident vegetation may decrease community invasibility as the climate warms.

The MaxEnt software package is one of the most popular tools for species distribution and environmental niche modeling, with over 1000 published applications since 2006. Its popularity is likely for two reasons: 1) MaxEnt typically outperforms other methods based on predictive accuracy and 2) the software is particularly easy to use. MaxEnt users must make a number of decisions about how they should select their input data and choose from a wide variety of settings in the software package to build models from these data. The underlying basis for making these decisions is unclear in many studies, and default settings are apparently chosen, even though alternative settings are often more appropriate. In this paper, we provide a detailed explanation of how MaxEnt works and a prospectus on modeling options to enable users to make informed decisions when preparing data, choosing settings and interpreting output. We explain how the choice of background samples reflects prior assumptions, how nonlinear functions of environmental variables (features) are created and selected, how to account for environmentally biased sampling, the interpretation of the various types of model output and the challenges for model evaluation. We demonstrate MaxEnt’s calculations using both simplified simulated data and occurrence data from South Africa on species of the flowering plant family Proteaceae. Throughout, we show how MaxEnt’s outputs vary in response to different settings to highlight the need for making biologically motivated modeling decisions.

Although it is widely predicted that the geographic distributions of tree species and forest types will undergo substantial shifts in future, modelling approaches used to date are largely unable to project the pace at which forest distributions will respond to environmental change. The expansion and contraction of forest distributions act against considerable demographic inertia in the present composition and size-structure of forest stands as climate-induced changes in growth, mortality, and recruitment alter population dynamics through time. We aimed to better understand how shifts in forest distributions reflect long-term changes in tree demographic rates and population dynamics, and how such shifts are influenced by 1) disturbance from forest harvesting and 2) local environmental heterogeneity. Using a simple, data-constrained gap model, we simulated regional forest dynamics in the eastern United States over the next 500 yr. We then compared the geographic distributions of five different forest types through time under present and altered climatic conditions, in scenarios that variously included and excluded forest harvesting and environmental heterogeneity. Although we held climate fixed after 100 yr, it took another 160 yr after this for these forest types to collectively experience 90% of their eventual climate-related distribution gains and losses. Competition strongly affected the nature of responses to climate change. Harvesting accelerated and amplified gains by an early-successional forest type at the expense of a late-successional one, but these gains did not occur faster than those for other forest types. Environmental heterogeneity had little effect on distribution gains or losses through time. These findings indicate that forest distributions should respond quite slowly to climate change, with the leading and trailing edges of different forest types shifting over a span of centuries. Disturbances can expedite some transitions, but are unlikely to lead to wholesale changes in forest types in the coming decades.

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1. Conservation of biodiversity in fire-prone regions depends on understanding responses to fire in animal communities and the mechanisms governing these responses.
2. We collated data from an Australian semi-arid woodland reptile community (4796 individuals captured over 6 years) to: (i) determine the ability of commonly used shorter-term (2 years) surveys to detect reptile responses to time since fire (TSF) and (ii) investigate whether ecological traits of species reliably predicted their responses to fire.
3. Of 16 reptile species analysed, four had responses to TSF consistent with shorter-term surveys and three showed no response to TSF. Nine species had responses to TSF not detected in previous studies using smaller but substantial subsets of the same data.
4. Among the 13 affected species, times of peak abundance ranged from 1 to 50 years after fire. Nocturnal, burrowing species tended to be early successional and leaf-litter dwellers to be late successional, but these were only weak trends.
5. Synthesis and applications. We found only limited support for a generalizable, trait-based model of succession in reptiles. However, our study revealed that the majority of common reptile species in our study region specialize on a post-fire successional stage and may therefore become threatened if homogeneous fire regimes predominate. Our study highlights the importance of interpreting results from time- or sample-limited fire studies of reptiles with the knowledge that many ecological responses may not have been detected. In such cases, an adaptive or precautionary approach to fire management may be necessary.

Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1-ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70–2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate-driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr⁻¹ (95% CI = 0.0005–0.0132 °C yr⁻¹). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr⁻¹, migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction.

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Political institutions are keen to use the best available scientific knowledge in decision-making. For environmental policy, relevant scientific evidence can be complex and extensive, so expert judgment is frequently relied upon, without clear links to the evidence itself. We propose a new transparent process for incorporating research evidence into policy decisions, involving independent synopsis of evidence relating to all possible policy options combined with expert evaluation of what the evidence means for specific policy questions. We illustrate the process using reforms of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy currently being negotiated. Under the reform proposals, 30% of direct payments to farmers will become conditional upon three “compulsory greening measures.” Independently, we compiled and evaluated experimental evidence for the effects of 85 interventions to protect wildlife on northern European farmland, 12 of which correspond to aspects of the compulsory greening measures. Our evaluation clearly indicates evidence of consistent wildlife benefits for some, but not all, of the greening measures. The process of evidence synopsis with expert evaluation has three advantages over existing efforts to incorporate evidence into policy decisions: it provides a clear evidence audit trail, allows rapid response to new policy contexts, and clarifies sources of uncertainty.