Lluís

Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile–adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.

Electrocution on overhead power structures negatively affects avian populations in diverse ecosystems worldwide, contributes to the endangerment of raptor populations in Europe and Africa, and is a major driver of legal action against electric utilities in North America. We investigated factors associated with avian electrocutions so poles that are likely to electrocute a bird can be identified and retrofitted prior to causing avian mortality. We used historical data from southern California to identify patterns of avian electrocution by voltage, month, and year to identify species most often killed by electrocution in our study area and to develop a predictive model that compared poles where an avian electrocution was known to have occurred (electrocution poles) with poles where no known electrocution occurred (comparison poles). We chose variables that could be quantified by personnel with little training in ornithology or electric systems. Electrocutions were more common at distribution voltages (≤33 kV) and during breeding seasons and were more commonly reported after a retrofitting program began. Red-tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) (n = 265) and American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) (n = 258) were the most commonly electrocuted species. In the predictive model, 4 of 14 candidate variables were required to distinguish electrocution poles from comparison poles: number of jumpers (short wires connecting energized equipment), number of primary conductors, presence of grounding, and presence of unforested unpaved areas as the dominant nearby land cover. When tested against a sample of poles not used to build the model, our model distributed poles relatively normally across electrocution-risk values and identified the average risk as higher for electrocution poles relative to comparison poles. Our model can be used to reduce avian electrocutions through proactive identification and targeting of high-risk poles for retrofitting.

Modelo Predictivo del Riesgo de Electrocución de Aves en Líneas Eléctricas Elevadas

La electrocución en estructuras de energía elevadas afecta negativamente a poblaciones de aves en diversos ecosistemas en todo el mundo, contribuye al riesgo de poblaciones de rapaces en Europa y África, y es una causa importante de acción legal contra empresas eléctricas en Norte América. Investigamos los factores asociados con la electrocución de aves para que postes que posiblemente electrocuten a una ave sean identificados y sean acondicionados antes de que causen mortalidad de aves. Utilizamos datos históricos del sur de California para identificar patrones de electrocución de aves por voltaje, mes y año para identificar las especies que mueren más frecuentemente por electrocución en nuestra zona de estudio y desarrollar un modelo predictivo que comparó postes en los que se sabía había ocurrido una electrocución (postes de electrocución) con postes en los que no hubo electrocución (postes de comparación). Seleccionamos variables que pudieran ser cuantificadas por personal con poco entrenamiento en ornitología o sistemas eléctricos. Las electrocuciones fueron más comunes en voltajes de distribución (≤33kV) y durante épocas reproductivas y fueron reportadas más comúnmente después de que comenzó un programa de acondicionamiento. Las especies electrocutadas más frecuentemente fueron Buteo jamaicensis (n = 265) Corvus brachyrhynchos (n = 258). En el modelo predictivo, se requirieron 4 de 14 variables consideradas para distinguir los postes de comparación de los postes de comparación: número de puentes (cables cortos que conectan equipo energizado), número de conductores primarios, presencia de conexiones a tierra y presencia de áreas deforestadas y no pavimentadas dominantes en la cobertura de suelo cercana. Al probarlo con una muestra de postes no utilizados para construirlo, nuestro modelo distribuyó los postes nomalmente en los valores de riesgo de electrocución e identificó el riesgo promedio más alto para postes de electrocución en relación con los poses de comparación. Nuestro modelo puede ser usado para reducir electrocuciones de aves mediante la identificación proactiva de postes con alto riesgo.

Globally expanding human land use sets constantly increasing pressure for maintenance of biological diversity and functioning ecosystems. To fight the decline of biological diversity, conservation science has broken ground with methods such as the operational model of systematic conservation planning (SCP), which focuses on design and on-the-ground implementation of conservation areas. The most commonly used method in SCP is reserve selection that focuses on the spatial design of reserve networks and their expansion. We expanded these methods by introducing another form of spatial allocation of conservation effort relevant for land-use zoning at the landscape scale that avoids negative ecological effects of human land use outside protected areas. We call our method inverse spatial conservation prioritization. It can be used to identify areas suitable for economic development while simultaneously limiting total ecological and environmental effects of that development at the landscape level by identifying areas with highest economic but lowest ecological value. Our method is not based on a priori targets, and as such it is applicable to cases where the effects of land use on, for example, individual species or ecosystem types are relatively small and would not lead to violation of regional or national conservation targets. We applied our method to land-use allocation to peat mining. Our method identified a combination of profitable production areas that provides the needed area for peat production while retaining most of the landscape-level ecological value of the ecosystem. The results of this inverse spatial conservation prioritization are being used in land-use zoning in the province of Central Finland.

La expansión global del uso de suelo por humanos establece un incremento constante en la presión para el mantenimiento de la biodiversidad y el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas. Para combatir la declinación de la biodiversidad, la ciencia de la conservación ha innovado métodos como el modelo operativo de planificación sistemática de la conservación (PSC), que se enfoca el diseño e implementación de áreas de conservación. El método usado más comúnmente en PSC es la selección de reservas que se concentra en el diseño espacial de redes de reservas y su expansión. Expandimos estos métodos mediante la introducción de otra forma de asignación espacial del esfuerzo de conservación relevante para la zonificación del uso de suelo a escala de paisaje que evita los efectos ecológicos negativos del uso de suelo por humanos afuera de áreas protegidas. Nuestro método se denomina priorización de conservación espacial inversa. Puede ser utilizado para identificar áreas adecuadas para el desarrollo económico al mismo tiempo que limitan los efectos ecológicos y ambientales de ese desarrollo a nivel de paisaje mediante la identificación de áreas con el mayor valor económico pero el menor valor ecológico. Nuestro método no se basa en objetivos definidos a priori, y como tal es aplicable a casos donde los efectos del uso de suelo sobre, por ejemplo, especies individuales o tipos de ecosistemas son relativamente pequeños y no violar objetivos de conservación regionales o nacionales. Aplicamos nuestro método a la asignación de uso de suelo para la explotación de turba. Nuestro método identificó una combinación de áreas de producción rentables que proporcionan la superficie requerida para la producción de turba y al mismo tiempo retienen la mayor parte del valor ecológico del ecosistema a nivel de paisaje. Los resultados de esta priorización de conservación espacial inversa son utilizados en la zonificación de uso de suelo en la provincia de Finlandia Central.

Oak decline has been a serious problem in Europe since the beginning of the twentieth century. In south-west Spain, Quercus ilex and Q. suber are the main affected species, and their decline has been associated with Phytophthora cinnamomi. During the last 10 years, a severe decline of Q. ilex and Q. faginea accompanied by a significant decrease in the production of acorns affecting natural regeneration was observed in the eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the possible involvement of Phytophthora spp. in the decline. A forest in the Natural Park ‘Carrascar de la Font Roja’ in Comunidad Valenciana (eastern Spain), which is dominated by Q. ilex and Q. faginea, was surveyed during 2010–2011. Symptomatic trees showed thinning and dieback of the crown, withering of leaves and death. An extensive loss of both lateral small woody roots and fine roots and callusing or open cankers on suberized roots were observed. Soil samples containing fine roots were baited using both Q. robur leaves and apple fruits. Six Phytophthora species were isolated: P. cryptogea, P. gonapodyides, P. megasperma, P. quercina, P. psychrophila and P. syringae. These are the first records of P. quercina and P. psychrophila on Q. faginea, of P. quercina in Spain and of P. psychrophila in mainland Spain. A soil infestation trial was conducted for 6 months under controlled conditions with 1-year-old seedlings of Q. ilex and Q. faginea. Phytophthora cinnamomi was included in the pathogenicity test for comparison. The results showed that Q. ilex seedlings were generally more susceptible to infection than Q. faginea with P. cinnamomi being the most aggressive pathogen to both oak species. The two most commonly isolated Phytophthora species, P. quercina and P. psychrophila, also proved their pathogenicity towards both Q. ilex and Q. faginea.

1. Climate change is affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental conditions, forcing species to shift their range in response. Species not capable of dispersing naturally may benefit from conservation translocations. A key aspect of translocation planning is release site selection: under the 2012 IUCN guidelines for reintroductions and other conservation translocations, selected sites are expected to match the biotic and abiotic needs of the candidate species now and in the future.
2. Here we present a methodological framework to identify optimal translocation sites under climate change. Our method is the first to explicitly combine statistical and predictive population modelling to understand the relationship between climate, climate change and population dynamics, in order to perform robust habitat suitability analyses for conservation decision-making.
3. We use the hihi Notiomystis cincta, a bird endemic to New Zealand, as a case study. We focus on the population of Tiritiri Matangi Island, which has been provided with ad libitum supplementary food since 1996. This offers the unique opportunity to study the direct impact of climate and future change in climatic conditions on a population free of confounding constraints.
4. Climate is found to drive hihi population dynamics, even though they are not limited by the availability of food. Thus, despite the current management of the species, climate change remains a major threat to its long-term persistence. Moreover, under predicted climate change for the country, hihi suitable habitat will shift southward: the two current largest hihi populations will face unsuitable climatic conditions in the coming decades, and habitat that was not part of the species' historical range may become suitable.
5. Synthesis and applications. Assisted colonization is increasingly being considered as an adaptation tool for species threatened by climate change. Justifying the use of this extreme conservation action, however, requires robust evidence that it is necessary and clear guidance on where to translocate individuals of threatened populations. We show how both requirements can be met using habitat suitability modelling if knowledge of the relationship between climate, climate change and the species' population dynamics is systematically used to guide the modelling process.

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Although many taxa have declined globally, conservation actions are inherently local. Ecosystems degrade even in protected areas, and maintaining natural systems in a desired condition may require active management. Implementing management decisions under uncertainty requires a logical and transparent process to identify objectives, develop management actions, formulate system models to link actions with objectives, monitor to reduce uncertainty and identify system state (i.e., resource condition), and determine an optimal management strategy. We applied one such structured decision-making approach that incorporates these critical elements to inform management of amphibian populations in a protected area managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Climate change is expected to affect amphibian occupancy of wetlands and to increase uncertainty in management decision making. We used the tools of structured decision making to identify short-term management solutions that incorporate our current understanding of the effect of climate change on amphibians, emphasizing how management can be undertaken even with incomplete information.

Estrategia para Monitorear y Manejar Disminuciones en una Comunidad de Anfibios

Aunque muchos taxones han declinado globalmente, las acciones de conservación son inherentemente locales. Los ecosistemas se degradan aún en áreas protegidas, y mantener sistemas naturales en una condición deseada puede requerir de un manejo activo. Implementar decisiones de manejo bajo incertidumbres requiere un proceso lógico y transparente para identificar objetivos, desarrollar acciones de manejo, formular modelos de sistemas enlazando acciones con objetivos, monitorear para reducir la incertidumbre e identificar estados de sistema (p. ej.: condición del recurso) y determinar una estrategia óptima de manejo. Aplicamos una aproximación de toma de decisiones estructurada de esa manera, que incorpora estos elementos críticos para informar al manejo de poblaciones de anfibios en un área protegida manejada por el Servicio de Parques Nacionales de Estados Unidos. Se espera que el cambio climático afecte la ocupación anfibia de humedales y que incremente la incertidumbre en el manejo de la toma de decisiones. Usamos las herramientas de la toma de decisiones estructurada para identificar las soluciones del manejo a corto plazo que incorporen nuestro entendimiento actual del efecto del cambio climático sobre los anfibios, enfatizando cómo el manejo puede sobrellevarse incluso con información incompleta.

We used aerial photographs, satellite images, and field surveys to monitor forest cover in the core zones of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico from 2001 to 2012. We used our data to assess the effectiveness of conservation actions that involved local, state, and federal authorities and community members (e.g., local landowners and private and civil organizations) in one of the world's most iconic protected areas. From 2001 through 2012, 1254 ha were deforested (i.e., cleared areas had <10% canopy cover), 925 ha were degraded (i.e., areas for which canopy forest decreased), and 122 ha were affected by climatic conditions. Of the total 2179 ha of affected area, 2057 ha were affected by illegal logging: 1503 ha by large-scale logging and 554 ha by small-scale logging. Mexican authorities effectively enforced efforts to protect the monarch reserve, particularly from 2007 to 2012. Those efforts, together with the decade-long financial support from Mexican and international philanthropists and businesses to create local alternative-income generation and employment, resulted in the decrease of large-scale illegal logging from 731 ha affected in 2005–2007 to none affected in 2012, although small-scale logging is of growing concern. However, dire regional social and economic problems remain, and they must be addressed to ensure the reserve's long-term conservation. The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwintering colonies in Mexico—which engage in one of the longest known insect migrations—are threatened by deforestation, and a multistakeholder, regional, sustainable-development strategy is needed to protect the reserve.

Tendencias en la Deforestación y la Degradación de Forestal después de una Década de Monitoreo en la Reserva de la Biósfera de la Mariposa Monarca en México

Usamos fotografías aéreas, imágenes satelitales y muestreos de campo para monitorear la cobertura forestal en las zonas núcleo de la Reserva de la Biósfera de la Mariposa Monarca en México de 2001 a 2012. Usamos nuestros datos para estudiar la efectividad de las acciones de conservación que involucran a autoridades locales, estatales y federales, así como a miembros de la comunidad (p. ej.: propietarios locales de tierras y organizaciones privadas y civiles), en una de las áreas protegidas más icónicas del mundo. Desde 2001 y hasta 2012, 1254 hectáreas fueron deforestadas (es decir, áreas en las cuales el dosel del bosque cubría <10%), 925 hectáreas fueron degradadas (es decir, áreas en las cuales el dosel del bosque disminuyó) y 122 hectáreas fueron afectadas por condiciones climáticas. Del total de 2179 hectáreas afectadas, 2057 hectáreas fueron afectadas por tala ilegal: 1503 hectáreas por tala a gran escala y 554 hectáreas por tala a pequeña escala. Las autoridades mexicanas efectivamente hicieron cumplir los esfuerzos para proteger la reserva monarca, particularmente de 2007 a 2012. Esos esfuerzos, junto con el apoyo económico de una década por parte de filántropos y empresarios mexicanos e internacionales para generar ingresos alternativos y empleos locales, resultaron en la disminución de la tala ilegal a gran escala de 731 hectáreas afectadas en el período 2005–2007 a ninguna en el 2012, aunque la tala a pequeña escala es una preocupación creciente. Sin embargo, en la región persisten problemas sociales y económicos severos que deben ser atendidos para asegurar la conservación a largo plazo de la reserva. Las colonias de mariposa monarca (Danaus plexippus) que pasan el invierno en México, que participan en una de las migraciones más extensas conocidas de insectos, están amenazadas por la deforestación y se requiere una estrategia regional de desarrollo sustentable y con la participación de todos los interesados para proteger la reserva.

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy-based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy-based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per-visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species.

Poder de Análisis Espacialmente Explícito para el Monitoreo Basado en Ocupación del Glotón (Gulo gulo) en las Montañas Rocallosas de Estados Unidos

Científicos de la conservación y administradores de recursos frecuentemente tienen que diseñar programas de monitoreo para especies que son raras o están distribuidas en fragmentos a lo largo de paisajes extensos. Tales programas frecuentemente son caros y rara vez pueden ser conducidos por una entidad. Es esencial que un análisis prospectivo de poder se lleve a cabo para asegurar que las metas de monitoreo enunciadas son factibles. Desarrollamos un programa de simulación basado en el espacio que toma en cuenta la historia natural, el uso de hábitat y el esquema de muestreo para investigar el poder de los protocolos de monitoreo para detectar tendencias en la abundancia de la población a través del tiempo con un método basado en ocupación. Analizamos esquemas de monitoreo con esfuerzos de muestreo diferentes para poblaciones de glotones (Gulo gulo) en 2 áreas de las Montañas Rocallosas de los Estados Unidos. La relación entre la ocupación y la abundancia fue no-lineal y dependía del paisaje, el tamaño de la población y los parámetros de movimiento. Con las estimaciones actuales del tamaño de población y la probabilidad de detección en las Rocallosas del norte de los Estados Unidos, la mayoría de los esquemas sólo pudieron detectar disminuciones grandes en la abundancia en las simulaciones (p. ej.: 50% de disminución a lo largo de 10 años). Para poblaciones pequeñas restableciéndose en las Rocallosas sureñas, los métodos basados en ocupación tuvieron suficiente poder para detectar tendencias de población solamente cuando las poblaciones estaban incrementando dramáticamente (p. ej.: duplicándose o triplicándose en 10 años), sin importar el esfuerzo de muestreo. En general, incrementar el número de celdas muestreadas o la probabilidad de detección por visita tuvo un mayor efecto sobre el poder que el número de visitas hechas durante un muestreo. Aunque nuestros resultados son específicos para los glotones, esta aproximación puede adaptarse fácilmente a otras especies territoriales.

The collapse of collective farming in Russia after 1990 and the subsequent economic crisis led to the abandonment of more than 45 million ha of arable lands (23% of the agricultural area). This was the most widespread and abrupt land use change in the 20th century in the northern hemisphere. The withdrawal of land area from cultivation led to several benefits including carbon (C) sequestration. Here, we provide a geographically complete and spatially detailed analysis of C sequestered in these abandoned lands. The average C accumulation rate in the upper 20 cm of mineral soil was 0.96 ± 0.08 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the first 20 years after abandonment and 0.19 ± 0.10 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ during the next 30 years of postagrogenic evolution and natural vegetation establishment. The amount of C sequestered over the period 1990–2009 accounts to 42.6 ± 3.8 Tg C per year. This C sequestration rate is equivalent to ca. 10% of the annual C sink in all Russian forests. Furthermore, it compensates all fire and postfire CO₂ emissions in Russia and covers about 4% of the global CO₂ release due to deforestation and other land use changes. Our assessment shows a significant mitigation of increasing atmospheric CO₂ by prolonged C accumulation in Russian soils caused by collective farming collapse.

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) inhabits the rugged mountains in 12 countries of Central Asia, including the Tibetan Plateau. Due to poaching, decreased abundance of prey, and habitat degradation, it was listed as endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature in 1972. Current conservation strategies, including nature reserves and incentive programs, have limited capacities to protect snow leopards. We investigated the role of Tibetan Buddhist monasteries in snow leopard conservation in the Sanjiangyuan region in China's Qinghai Province on the Tibetan Plateau. From 2009 to 2011, we systematically surveyed snow leopards in the Sanjiangyuan region. We used the MaxEnt model to determine the relation of their presence to environmental variables (e.g., elevation, ruggedness) and to predict snow leopard distribution. Model results showed 89,602 km² of snow leopard habitat in the Sanjiangyuan region, of which 7674 km² lay within Sanjiangyuan Nature Reserve's core zones. We analyzed the spatial relation between snow leopard habitat and Buddhist monasteries and found that 46% of monasteries were located in snow leopard habitat and 90% were within 5 km of snow leopard habitat. The 336 monasteries in the Sanjiangyuan region could protect more snow leopard habitat (8342 km²) through social norms and active patrols than the nature reserve's core zones. We conducted 144 household interviews to identify local herders’ attitudes and behavior toward snow leopards and other wildlife. Most local herders claimed that they did not kill wildlife, and 42% said they did not kill wildlife because it was a sin in Buddhism. Our results indicate monasteries play an important role in snow leopard conservation. Monastery-based snow leopard conservation could be extended to other Tibetan Buddhist regions that in total would encompass about 80% of the global range of snow leopards.

Papel de los Monasterios Budistas Tibetanos en la Conservación del Leopardo de las Nieves

El leopardo de las nieves (Panthera uncia) habita en las montañas escarpadas de 12 países de Asia Central, incluyendo la Meseta Tibetana. Debido a la caza furtiva, la disminución de la abundancia de presas y la degradación del hábitat, fue enlistado como en peligro por la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza en 1972. Las estrategias de conservación actuales, que incluyen reservas naturales y programas de incentivos, han limitado las capacidades para proteger a los leopardos de las nieves. Investigamos el papel de los monasterios budistas tibetanos en la conservación de la especie en la región de Sanjiangyuan en la provincia china de Qinghai en la Meseta Tibetana. De 2009 a 2011 buscamos sistemáticamente leopardos de las nieves en la región Sanjiangyuan. Usamos el modelo MaxEnt para determinar la relación de su presencia con variables ambientales (p. ej.: elevación, aspereza) y predecir la distribución de la especia. Los resultados del modelo mostraron 89,602 km² de hábitat del leopardo de las nieves en la región de Sanjiangyuan, de los cuales 7674 km² yacen dentro de las zonas núcleo de la Reserva Natural de Sanjiangyuan. Analizamos la relación espacial entre el hábitat del leopardo de las nieves y los monasterios budistas. Hallamos que el 46% de los monasterios están ubicados en el hábitat de la especie y el 90% están dentro de 5 km del hábitat. Los 336 monasterios en la región Sanjiangyuan podrían proteger más hábitat (8342 km²), a través de normas sociales y patrullas activas, que las zonas núcleo de la reserva. Realizamos 144 entrevistas a hogares para identificar las actitudes y comportamiento de pastores locales hacia los leopardos y otra fauna. La mayoría de los pastores dijeron que no matan fauna Silvestre y el 42% dijo que no la matan porque es un pecado en la religión budista. Nuestros resultados indican que los monasterios juegan un papel importante en la conservación del leopardo de las nieves. La conservación de la especie basada en monasterios podría extenderse a otras regiones tibetanas budistas, que en total englobarían un 80% de la distribución global de los leopardos de las nieves.

1. During the last decade, there has been a proliferation of statistical methods for studying resource selection by animals. While statistical techniques are advancing at a fast pace, there is confusion in the conceptual understanding of the meaning of various quantities that these statistical techniques provide.

2. Terms such as selection, choice, use, occupancy and preference often are employed as if they are synonymous. Many practitioners are unclear about the distinctions between different concepts such as ‘probability of selection,’ ‘probability of use,’ ‘choice probabilities’ and ‘probability of occupancy’.

3. Similarly, practitioners are not always clear about the differences between and relevance of ‘relative probability of selection’ vs. ‘probability of selection’ to effective management.

4. Practitioners also are unaware that they are using only a single statistical model for modelling resource selection, namely the exponential probability of selection, when other models might be more appropriate. Currently, such multimodel inference is lacking in the resource selection literature.

5. In this paper, we attempt to clarify the concepts and terminology used in animal resource studies by illustrating the relationships among these various concepts and providing their statistical underpinnings.

There is substantial confusion regarding different concepts and definitions used in resource selection studies. This paper clarifies the concepts and their interrelationships. This will help appropriate application of statistical analyses in wildlife management.

1. Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.

2. A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.

3. We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.

4. Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes.

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1. The phenology of many species has been shown to shift under climate change. However, because species respond at different rates, ecological communities may be disrupted leading to species extinctions and loss of ecosystem services. Hence, there is a need to monitor and understand phenological change.
2. Population data, gathered by standardised monitoring schemes, can be used to this end. However, such schemes require significant organisation and financial resources. Distribution data (georeferenced biological records with dates) are easier and cheaper to collect and may be an unexploited resource for phenology analyses. This would allow analysis of more taxa from more regions of the world. However, distribution data are potentially biased due to the unstandardised behaviour of biological recorders.
3. Here, the ability of distribution data record dates to accurately predict phenology is investigated by using the British butterfly fauna as a model system. We used the total number of distribution records per unit time across Great Britain as a proxy for butterfly abundance. Phenology metrics of mean flight date and flight period length were then calculated from the resulting abundance–time relationships for each year in a 15-year time series. These estimates were validated against those generated from a standardised-effort population monitoring scheme.
4. We analysed 1 078 328 records from 30 British butterflies and found that distribution data accurately predicted the mean flight date for 22 of the 30 species tested. Flight period length was only predicted accurately for seven of 30 species.
5. We found a nonlinear but consistent positive relationship between the accuracy of mean flight date estimates and sample size (number of records) at both inter- and intraspecific scales. Our results suggest that a threshold sample size of c. 6500 distribution records (430 per year) is a pragmatic compromise between accuracy and recording effort, leading to little loss of accuracy in phenology predictions (an average decrease in accuracy of 2·9 days was observed).
6. The results suggest that distribution data are a potentially useful resource for phenology research. This may allow practitioners to monitor particular regions and previously unstudied species relatively cheaply using existing mapping schemes.

Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for sustaining biodiversity is crucial to achieving conservation outcomes. While studies of effectiveness have improved our understanding of protected-area design and management, few investigations (< 5%) have quantified the ecological performance of reserves for conserving species. Here, we present an empirical evaluation of protected-area effectiveness using long-term measures of a vulnerable assemblage of species. We compare forest and woodland bird diversity in the Australian Capital Territory over 11 yr on protected and unprotected areas located in temperate eucalypt woodland and matched by key habitat attributes. We examine separately the response of birds to protected areas established prior to 1995 and after 1995 when fundamental changes were made to regional conservation policy. Bird diversity was measured in richness, occurrence of vulnerable species, individual species trajectories and functional trait groups. We found that protected areas were effective in maintaining woody vegetation cover in the study region, but were less effective in the protection of the target bird species assemblage. Protected areas were less species rich than unprotected areas, with significant declines in richness across sites protected prior to 1995. Small, specialised and vulnerable species showed stronger associations with unprotected areas than protected areas. Our findings indicate that recently established reserves (post-1995) are performing similarly to unprotected woodland areas in terms of maintaining woodland bird diversity, and that both of these areas are more effective in the conservation of woodland bird populations than reserves established prior to 1995. We demonstrate that the conservation value of protected areas is strongly influenced by the physical characteristics, as well as the landscape context, of a given reserve and can diminish with changes in surrounding land use over time. Both protected areas and off-reserve conservation schemes have important roles to play in securing species populations.