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05 Aug 00:33

Chip giant TSMC struggles with virus infections at its factories

by Jon Fingas
Many of the tech products launching this fall might have just run into production setbacks. Giant chip manufacturer TSMC has warned that several of its fabrication plants suffered virus infections on August 3rd, disrupting production. Some of these...
21 Jul 22:43

Stephen King’s Nightmare Town Castle Rock a Distillery of Horrors

by Glenn Garvin

'Castle Rock'Castle Rock. Available July 25 from Hulu.

They say you can't go home again. If you were from Castle Rock, why would you want to?

For about four decades now, Stephen King has been peopling this (fictional) little Maine town with vengeful witches, homicidally rabid dogs, political assassins, Satanic shopkeepers, telepathic ghost magnets, Polaroid portals to hellish alternative universes, and mutant rats the size of cows. It's not quite the most accursed of the western Maine hamlets where King sets his works—that would surely be 'Salem's Lot, so thoroughly overrun by vampires that the handful of survivors burned it to the ground in the mid-1970s—but with 30 or so appearances in his novels and short stories, Castle Rock is clearly the most persistently malevolent locale in Kinglandia.

Hulu's new series Castle Rock is clearly an attempt to answer a question that has occurred to nearly every King reader multiple times over the years: Do the folks in this town ever notice the unholy frequency with which their neighbors fall into quicksand pits, get ravaged by their house pets, or are driven insane by mundane household items purchased at pawn shops?

Oh, yes they do, and you'll have a creepy good time as Castle Rock follows their efforts to figure out why their town is such a demonic piece of crap. One of the lead investigators is even a Realtor, who I imagine faces some serious professional challenges in a town like this. ("It's very cute little Cape Cod at an owner-was-murdered-by-a-jealous-neighbor-for-having-sex-with-the-ghost-of-Elvis price!")

More important, though, is Dale Lacy, the warden of Castle Rock's privately-administered Shawshank prison (yes, that Shawshank), who (spoiler alert, and while we're at it, upchuck alert) commits grisly suicide in the show's opening moments.

His successor wonders why Lacy kept an entire cell block closed when the inmates in the rest of the prison are confined two to a tiny cell. After a bit of exploration, the answer is painfully apparent and probably explains the warden's surprising suicide: He kept a young man, half-naked, locked in a cage in the cell block basement.

Though the prison tries to keep the discovery secret—bad for the stockholders, you know—word leaks out and brings defense attorney Henry Deaver (Andre Holland, The Knick) back to town.

Though Deaver grew up in Castle Rock, he's the ultimate outsider: The adopted black son of white parents, he exiled himself as an adult because nearly everybody in town believes that, as a child, he murdered his own father during a winter hike in the woods. The dad's pulverized body was found at the foot of a cliff, while Henry wandered back 11 days later, mysteriously undamaged by 11 days outside in sub-zero weather—except for a convenient memory blackout.

King is credited as an executive producer on Castle Rock, though he apparently didn't do any of the actual writing. (The screenplays are credited to Sam Shaw and Dustin Thomason, who worked together on Manhattan, an intriguing and underwatched WGN America series about life on the dusty New Mexico base where the atomic bomb was being developed.) But his style is stamped everywhere on the show: the deceptive nature of evil (Is the young man caged under the prison really a victim? Is Deaver really a bad-seed patricide?); the Our Town-style story-telling, in which white picket fences conceal—and sometimes confine—moral decay and predation inside; the seductive web of subplots that might converge and might simply die out the way little dramas in real life often do.

Castle Rock, especially in the early going, unfurls its tentacles slowly, but their grip is eerily strong; over the three episodes I watched, I was never tempted to look away.

You don't need to know a damn thing about King or his work to enjoy the macabre machinations of Castle Rock. But if you do, watching is like a bunnyfest in July, with Easter eggs scattered everywhere as characters from and allusions to his novels, short stories, and adaptations pop up in nearly every scene. If an old newspaper clipping falls out of a file folder, you know it will be a story about a family chewed upon by a pet dog or a kid hit by a train.

The biggest Easter eggs of all are stashed in Castle Rock's uniformly excellent cast. The enigmatic Warden Lacy is played by Lost's Terry O'Quinn, who also portrayed a cop destined to become Purina Werewolf Chow in Silver Bullet. Sissy Spacek (Deaver's adoptive mother, whose dementia-ravaged memory may hold a clue to what happened to him) first got onto our radar as the bullied and vengeful Carrie. The nameless prisoner is played by Bill Skarsgard, who radiated evil right through his clown makeup in It.

And though Scott Glenn has never appeared in a King adaption, his character Alan Pangborn—the sheriff who rescued the young Dearborn from his frozen sojourn in the wilderness—is playing a character who more than any other symbolizes the toll that the town takes on its citizen-hostages.

Readers of King novels have watched Pangborn stand by helplessly as his family members and lovers succumb. In Castle Rock, he's an old, punched-out man with little to say except one final piece of advice: "Don't let that fuckin' kid out." His eyes are faded; his words, maybe not.

17 Jul 07:53

'FIFA 18' correctly predicted France's World Cup win

by Rob LeFebvre
EA Sports has a pretty amazing record when it comes to predicting the outcome of major sporting events. The company used it's FIFA 18 game to correctly opine that Germany would win the 2014 World Cup, and has used the long-running Madden franchise to...
17 Jul 07:48

Instapaper buys itself back from Pinterest

by Rob LeFebvre
Back in 2013, developer Marco Arment sold his popular read-it-later app Instapaper to Betaworks, the company that had previously acquired Digg. Two years ago, Pinterest bought the little company to "accelerate discovering and saving articles on Pinte...
16 Jul 04:24

The chickens come home to roost, by Scott Sumner

I don’t know anything about roosting chickens, but I do know a bit about trade theory. Over the past 200 years, debates about trade have occurred on two levels. Academics insist that unilateral free trade is the best options. However the “very serious people” (VSP) who conduct real world trade negotiations act as if open markets are a “concession”. They act as if we were doing other countries a favor by letting them export goods to our market. They view the academic perspective as hopelessly idealistic, even as the VSPs have worked hard to gradually move the world toward the same goal of freer trade, one agreement at a time.

Today it looks like the VSPs who believe in globalization made a big mistake, and that the idealistic approach of unilaterally moving toward freer trade was the better strategy. The VSP approach opened the door to protectionist populists, and Donald Trump walked through.  Protectionists are using the “concessions” myth as an excuse to impose higher tariffs. Other countries then face a difficult choice. If they give in to pressure from Trump, it would just encourage him to make even more demands.

It’s normally the case that one is better off standing up to a bully. When one does so, bullies tend to back off. But it’s not easy to do this without making the problem even worse, without triggering an international trade war.

If countries had done like Singapore and Hong Kong, and adopted a unilateral policy of free trade, then they would not face this quandary. In that case, if the US wants to shoot itself in the foot with trade barriers, it’s free to do so. No point in compounding the problem by also shooting yourself in the foot. Unfortunately, the international trade negotiation establishment is deeply invested in the “concessions” view of trade, and this creates some difficult game theory problems.  If they do the “right thing” (cut tariffs) they look weak and make the populists even more popular.

Sometimes the most idealistic approach is also the most pragmatic.

PS.  As an analogy, I have argued that we should rely 100% on monetary policy to stabilize demand, and not at all on fiscal policy.  This view is widely seen as impractical.  But now the Trump administration and Congress have raised spending and cut taxes to the point where a viable countercyclical fiscal policy is almost impossible.  And yet we never built the sort of robust monetary regime that could provide a stable path for expected NGDP.  So what happens if there is another 2008?

(47 COMMENTS)
11 Jul 23:06

Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew

by Eric Berger

Enlarge / An artist's view of the Starliner spacecraft en route to the International Space Station. (credit: Boeing)

One of the biggest rivalries in the modern aerospace industry is between Boeing and SpaceX. Despite their radically different cultures, the aerospace giant and the smaller upstart compete for many different kinds of contracts, and perhaps nowhere has the competition been more keen than for NASA funds.

In 2014, both Boeing and SpaceX received multibillion awards (Boeing asked for, and got, 50 percent more funding for the same task) to finalize development of spacecraft to carry astronauts to the International Space Station as part of the commercial crew program. Since then, both companies have been locked in a race to the launchpad, not just to free NASA from its reliance on Russia to reach space but also for the considerable esteem that will accompany becoming the first private company in the world to fly humans into orbit.

A narrow margin

Although both Boeing and SpaceX have established various launch dates—first in 2017, and now slipped to 2018 and 2019—NASA hasn't publicly tipped its hand on which company is actually ahead in the race. Now, however, a new report from the US Government Accountability Office has provided a window into NASA's internal thinking on commercial crew launch dates.

Read 6 remaining paragraphs | Comments

07 Jul 04:10

Wales Legalizes Take-Home Abortion Pills

by Liz Wolfe

Last week, the Welsh government approved take-home abortion pills, meaning most medical, non-surgical abortions can be done at home, without the supervision of a doctor.

Currently, Scotland, Sweden, and France have similar protocols in place, though England lags behind on this front. Given that around three-fourths of the total abortions performed in Wales last year were medical, this recent change could mean easier abortion access for women who live in remote parts of the country.

Medical abortions are typically available in the first trimester, up to about nine weeks of gestation. In the past, women had to take two pills while supervised at a clinic. On her first visit, a woman will take mifepristone. Between 24 and 72 hours later, she must return to the clinic to take a second pill, called misoprostol.

Wales' new policy means women can take these pills in the privacy and comfort of their own homes. Harmful side effects are rare and the instructions are not particularly difficult to follow, so this risks are low. The benefits to women, meanwhile, are real and significant.

Misoprostol induces normal-but-heavy bleeding, and it's not always clear when it will begin. Women who must travel any serious distance to attend a clinic—either in a car or on public transit—were subjected under the old policy to unpredictable inconveniences and embarrassment. The new policy recognizes women's competence to decide when they need medical attention, and spares them the indigity of bleeding while in transit.

The new measure could also help women reduce time they must take off of work, a retired nurse named Bronwen Davies told the BBC. Administering the pills at home means they don't need to leave a job in the middle of the day or workweek to comply with clinic hours.

Medical, non-surgical abortions aren't growing in popularity just across the pond—they're on the rise in the U.S. as well. In 2014, Planned Parenthood reported that 43 percent of total abortions performed by the center were pill-induced, compared with just 35 percent in 2010.

As media outlets and pundits stoke pro-choicers' fears that the Trump administration is moving toward a world where Roe v. Wade is repealed, and abortion activists warn us that so-called coat hanger abortions will rise, it's worth considering whether these worries reflect modern abortion practices.

As Reason's Elizabeth Nolan Brown has previously written, coat hanger imagery might not be an accurate portrayal of what a Roe-repealed America would look like. In all likelihood, we'd see the rise of pill-induced medical abortions, and perhaps increased demand for black-market mifepristone and misoprostol.

There would, of course, be real medical concerns associated with a dramatic increase in DIY abortions, particularly if criminal penalties are signed into law. Would women who experience complications from medical abortion be able to seek emergency medical care without suffering legal consequences? What kinds of quality control issues are likely to arise when women get their medicine from mysterious sources rather than legal pharmacies?

The idea of DIY abortions shouldn't instill women with nearly as much fear as the name implies––they're likely already done in many parts of the U.S., where onerous abortion restrictions have made it harder for women to go into clinics.

Economist Seth Stephens-Davidowitz detailed this issue in a 2016 New York Times article. When he looked at states where abortion is most criminalized and clinics are far and few between, he found that had fewer abortions and more live births. But he also realized that the margin didn't fully make sense—in other words, some pregnancies were unaccounted for or "missing," meaning they were likely terminated (successfully) at home.

In the ten states with the fewest abortion clinics, women had "54 percent fewer legal abortions—a difference of 11 abortions for every 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44." These were also more live births for women in these states—but only six per 1,000 women. Stephens-Davidowitz suggests that miscarriage could play a role, but that, even accounting for that, there's a pretty significant difference between legal abortions and live births, which warrants further study.

Stephens-Davidowitz also found that Google searches for how to buy abortion pills and how to self-induce abortion have spiked in states where abortion is more criminalized. As data are gathered from places like Wales, it will be interesting to gauge safety outcomes from pill-induced abortions. Early evidence suggests that even without doctor supervision, the two-pill combination is often successful at terminating early-stage pregnancies with only rare complications.

Abortion activists' fears are partially founded and partially misplaced: on one hand, aborting a pregnancy relatively safely in the privacy of one's own home is more of a possibility today than it has been in the past. On the other, an unfettered black market for misoprostol and mifepristone, plus potential criminal consequences for seeking help in the event of complications, is far from ideal.

04 Jul 16:21

The culture that will be Danish Plato’s Republic show them Babette’s Feast?

by Tyler Cowen

When Rokhaia Naassan gives birth in the coming days, she and her baby boy will enter a new category in the eyes of Danish law. Because she lives in a low-income immigrant neighborhood described by the government as a “ghetto,” Rokhaia will be what the Danish newspapers call a “ghetto parent” and he will be a “ghetto child.”

Starting at the age of 1, “ghetto children” must be separated from their families for at least 25 hours a week, not including nap time, for mandatory instruction in “Danish values,” including the traditions of Christmas and Easter, and Danish language. Noncompliance could result in a stoppage of welfare payments. Other Danish citizens are free to choose whether to enroll children in preschool up to the age of six.

Denmark’s government is introducing a new set of laws to regulate life in 25 low-income and heavily Muslim enclaves, saying that if families there do not willingly merge into the country’s mainstream, they should be compelled.

That is from Ellen Barry and Martin Selsoe Sorensen at the NYT, interesting throughout.  It seems pretty clear that “culture wars” — in various forms — are the big political issue for some time to come.

The post The culture that will be Danish Plato’s Republic show them Babette’s Feast? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

30 Jun 01:18

Toke Up and Chow Down on Netflix’s Pot-Infused Cooking Competition

by Glenn Garvin
Jack

It was only a matter of time. 98% match for me on Netflix.

'Cooking on High'Cooking on High. Available now on Netflix.

Culinary cannabis made its first great leap into the media world in 1954, when Parisian avant-gardist Alice B. Toklas published a cookbook containing a recipe for something she called "Haschich Fudge." It was less a revolutionary act than an accident. The dish wasn't really fudge (more like a sticky ball of bud and nuts) and Toklas had never actually prepared it; still short of recipes as the cookbook deadline approached, she put out a desperate call for help from her friends, one of whom supplied the Haschich Fudge instructions with an apparently straight face. Hardly anybody noticed it until the recipe turned up as the intellectual underpinning, if that's the right phrase, of the 1968 movie I Love You, Alice B. Toklas!

Fast-forwarding 85 years to the epochal debut of Cooking On High, a competitive cooking show that's cannabis cuisine's introduction to television, it's obvious—hilariously, bizarrely, sometimes painfully obvious—that everybody involved has sampled and then oversampled the recipes. Consider this judge's verdict on a pot-infused grilled cheese sandwich: "The best goddamn sandwich I ever ate in my whole life. It tasted great. But I'm also high as a motherfucker. [Face looming freakishly into camera.] Look at the eyes, kid!"

Sort of an unhinged love child of Iron Chef and Reefer Madness, Cooking on High features two marijuana chefs—this sounds like a joke we would have made over Cheez Whiz and saltines when I was in college, but now it's an actual thing—being handed a handful of weed and told to poach it or fry it or whatever into an edible dish within 30 minutes.

As the cooks putter away, judges drawn from the ranks of unknown rappers and obscure stand-up comics babble incoherently. "My mom smoked when she was pregnant," one rapper boasts of his qualifications to judge, "so I've been high since before birth." Counters another: "I own a tattoo gun."

High Times cannabis columnist Ngaio Bealum hangs out dropping random dope tips, which is how I now know that there's a strain of marijuana called Sour Diesel. I will confess that I shared the befuddled reaction of one of the judges, from a rap group called Warm Beer. "How do they come up with the names for these?" he wondered drowsily. "Who's the nigga that said, 'Chemdawg—stamp it'"?

Whether stoners really cry out for cod cakes coated with panko, cannabis butter and handcrafted chipotle aioli and wrapped in prosciutto—as opposed to, say, a microwave burrito with a Little Debbie pie chaser—is by no means certain to me.

And because the actual cooking portion of the show is edited down to about two minutes per dish and jump-cut at the rabid pace of a 1984 Footloose video, the claim that all this stuff got cooked in 30 minutes seems a little on the flaky side. My girlfriend, who knows a lot more about cooking than I do, scoffed at the idea that a souffle of organic flour, eggs, two cheeses, cayenne, and drizzled with dope-infused aioli could come out of the pan in half an hour even if you were just warming up the Pillsbury version.

But that pales beside my new knowledge, courtesy one of the ganja chefs, that there's something called soyrizo, a vegan chorizo, that appeals to the addled doper palate. Burn in Hell, Alice B. Toklas.

26 Jun 04:02

Trump Era Has Been Great News for New York Times Company's Shareholders

by Ira Stoll

The Trump era sure has been good for shareholders in what the president likes to call the "failing New York Times."

The New York Times Company stock has soared 141 percent since Election Day 2016. You'd have made more money if you'd bought Times stock on Election Day than if you had invested in a fund that tracks the Standard and Poor's 500 Index (up about 29 percent since Election Day). You even would have made more money with New York Times Co. stock than you would have if you had invested in high-tech stocks such as Facebook (up 62 percent), Amazon (up 118 percent), Apple (up 71percent), or Google parent company Alphabet (up 46percent).

No wonder President Clinton has reportedly been going around talking about how the Times struck a deal with Trump to get him elected because it would be good for the the paper's business. Trump has been good for the paper's business. Wall Street analysts and cable business news channel CNBC describe the post-election surge in Times digital subscription revenue as a "Trump Bump."

The New York Times Company stock went to $26.60 last week from $11.05 on Election Day 2016, according to Yahoo Finance's data, which adjusts for reinvested dividends. That's an increase of $15.55 a share. The stock hit a 52-week high last week.

The single biggest winner on that climb appears to be the Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim Helu. According to The New York Times Company's 2018 proxy statement, Slim controlled 27,191,500 shares of The New York Times Company Class A Common Stock as of February 15, 2018. Do the math, and Slim would have a paper profit of $422,827,825 on his investment since Election Day, though he has sold some shares between February and today. The Ochs-Sulzberger family descendants who control the Times Company also made some money on paper, though less than Slim, since the Ochs-Sulzberger family owns about a 9 percent economic interest in the Times Company, compared to Slim's 16.7 percent, according to the proxy statement.

The "Trump Bump" has been good for Carlos Slim and the Ochs-Sulzberger family's stock price. Whether it is good for Times journalism, and whether it's a sustainable long-term growth strategy for the Times Company, are different questions, however.

Media watchdogs have long praised subscription revenue for being aligned with, rather than conflicting with, a newspaper's journalistic mission. Academics worried that, say, ExxonMobil advertising would prevent the Times from aggressively covering climate change or that luxury fashion advertising would prevent the Times from aggressively covering poverty. They had few such worries about paying subscribers.

The reality may be more complicated, especially if what the hordes of new Times subscribers really want isn't exactly old-fashioned journalism but something more like opposition research.

At least two recent flaps suggest that some substantial portion of those new Times subscribers seem to regard the New York Times charge on their credit card bill less as a news expenditure than like something akin to a recurring contribution to the Democratic National Committee.

When an assistant managing editor of The New York Times, Carolyn Ryan, tweeted out a Times profile of Juanita Powell-Brunson, the paper's deputy director of newsroom operations, it generated a series of responses from people upset that the Times had declined to publish audio it had recorded of an interview with Trump White House official Stephen Miller. A comment on the Times website said the Times had "made the wrong decision": "A newspaper's capitulating to the 'White House' for any reason at this point in history is unforgivable." That comment got "recommend" upvotes from 146 Times readers.

Also generating ire on the left was a front-page Times article by Peter Baker and Katie Rogers reporting that "Trump's coarse discourse increasingly seems to inspire opponents to respond with vituperative words of their own." One NBC reporter tweeted, "A truly awful piece that I hope is taught in journalism schools in perpetuity. A person in power created actual baby internment camps, and somehow a NYT writer attempted to Both Sides it with words from protesters. A genuine disgrace."

Another Twitter user responded, "I canceled my subscription specifically because of this article. It was the final straw." Another wrote, "I canceled my subscription over this." Even Times opinion columnist Paul Krugman cast shade at the article by his Times colleagues, writing, "the real crisis is an upsurge in hatred—unreasoning hatred that bears no relationship to anything the victims have done. And anyone making excuses for that hatred—who tries, for example, to turn it into a 'both sides' story—is, in effect, an apologist for crimes against humanity."

The cover of the 2018 Times Company proxy statement features a Times promotional advertisement asserting, in part, "The truth doesn't take sides. The truth isn't red or blue." That may be true about "the truth," but it may not be true about all those new Times digital subscribers. Many of them are partisan anti-Trumpers.

Whether those customers will stick around to pay for aggressive New York Times coverage of, say, an Elizabeth Warren administration or a Bernie Sanders administration is an open question. If they don't, Times shares may eventually plunge back to their Obama administration price levels. Carlos Slim may find his newly created hundreds of million of dollars in value eliminated by a Democratic president just as quickly as President Trump created it.

Slim may understand this. Securities and Exchange Commission records indicate that between February 12 and June 21 of 2018, the number of Times shares he controls declined to 16,897,175 from 27,191,500, and his ownership stake declined to 10.3 percent from 16.8 percent. The Ochs-Sulzberger clan ownership stake has also declined, to 9 percent in 2018 from 11 percent in 2017, according to the proxy statements.

A conservative president who attacks the press turns out to be the best thing in years for a liberal newspaper's stock price. The newspaper's single largest owner, however, seems to have his doubts about how long it will last.

Ira Stoll is editor of FutureOfCapitalism.com and author of JFK, Conservative.

21 Jun 08:10

Madagascar fact of the day

by Tyler Cowen
Jack

Yikes. That's unfortunate.

President Hery Rajaonarimampianina is weathering the latest in a series of political crises that have debilitated his nation since independence in 1960. In that period, Madagascar is the world’s only non-conflict country to have become poorer, according to the World Bank. Its income per head has nearly halved, to about $400.

That is from the excellent David Pilling at the FT.  According to one estimate, almost one out of two children is stunted through malnutrition.

The post Madagascar fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

21 Jun 07:44

Will the European Union ruin the internet?

by Tyler Cowen

A committee of MEPs has voted to accept major changes to European copyright law, which experts say could change the nature of the internet.

They voted to approve the controversial Article 13, which critics warn could put an end to memes, remixes and other user-generated content.

Article 11, requiring online platforms to pay publishers a fee if they link to their news content, was also approved.

One organisation opposed to the changes called it a “dark day”.

The European Parliament’s Committee on Legal Affairs voted by 15 votes to 10 to adopt Article 13 and by 13 votes to 12 to adopt Article 11.

It will now go to the wider European Parliament to vote on in July.

…Article 11 has been called the “link tax” by opponents.

Here is further information.  If ever there was a case for Brexit…

For the pointer I thank Saku.

The post Will the European Union ruin the internet? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

16 Jun 18:32

Could Erdogan actually be voted out in Turkey?

by Jazz Shaw
Jack

I hope so but unlikely.

Turkey’s next round of elections is coming up in just over a week, on June 24th. Considering that the Turks are currently living under a barely disguised dictatorship in the form of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one might imagine that the elections will be little more than a formality. But in an unusual bit of media digging, Bloomberg commissioned a poll of Turkish voters to evaluate the chances of both Erdogan and his AKP Party. The conclusion? Erdogan is holding a lead, but it’s not as big as you might imagine and his nearest challenger could be within the margin of error for an upset victory.

Turkey’s election this month could go down to the wire, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan facing a tougher battle to cement power or even an upset, according to a poll commissioned by Bloomberg.

Erdogan can win the presidential vote in the first round on June 24 with 50.8 percent support and get the backing of a majority in parliament, the survey by Foresight Danismanlik of 500 people on June 7-11 found. But a surprise victory for the opposition is also within the margin of error.

The key takeaway is that any array of options is possible and the only certainty is that it will be very close. Erdogan and his AK party can’t win alone, and in previous elections they got the support of religious conservatives, free-market liberals or Kurds to govern. Now success hinges on how voters identifying as nationalist cast their ballot, the poll found.

There are some issues with this poll and Bloomberg freely admits this. It was done in a single electoral district, albeit one that has tracked the results of previous elections as a sort of bellwether. Also, there were only 500 respondents sampled for an entire country. They’re listing the margin of error as plus or minus 3.5% but that might be a bit generous.

Even so, Erdogan is only showing 50.8% support. He’ll need every inch of that to secure another term in the first round of voting. His main challenger is Muharrem Ince who is only registering a little over 30% support. That makes me wonder precisely how much of a margin they’re expecting out of these numbers. Twenty points is still a very substantial lead.

The question of who will control the country’s parliament is another matter. Erdogan’s AKP Party is polling at 46% and their only significant ally in a ruling coalition is the nationalist MHP Party. They’re drawing 4.5% support, which adds up to a razor-thin margin if you’re trying to build a majority in the legislature. The other parties tend to be more independent with many being friends of the Kurds. Given Erdogan’s treatment of the Kurds, he can’t be expecting a lot of support coming from them.

But all of this ignores one other factor which should be obvious. How many people can realistically be expected to show up and publicly oppose Erdogan? His critics have a nasty tendency to suddenly wind up in prison or simply disappear. Walking around with a big “I’m Voting For Ince” button on your shirt might not be conducive to long-term health. It would be a hopeful sign for Turkey’s return to normality and their previous democratic leanings if Erdogan could somehow be peacefully removed from office by his own people next Sunday. But I remain skeptical that the election will be either free or fair enough for such a decision to be announced. And even if Erdogan lost, there’s no guarantee that he would honor the results and step down anyway.

And meanwhile, he’s still got American Pastor Andrew Brunson locked up in a prison cell and the White House is unable to do anything about it. That’s just a small but important reminder for you, Mr. President.

The post Could Erdogan actually be voted out in Turkey? appeared first on Hot Air.

16 Jun 18:07

Disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes indicted on criminal charges

by Beth Mole
Jack

This has been a long time coming.

Enlarge / Founder & CEO of Theranos, Elizabeth Holmes. (credit: Getty | Gilbert Carrasquillo)

Federal prosecutors have indicted Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes and the company’s former president Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani with nine counts of wire fraud and two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Prosecutors claim that the pair defrauded investors, doctors, and patients while promoting and running their now disgraced blood-testing startup.

In the new court filing—submitted Thursday, June 14 in federal court in San Jose, and unsealed on Friday—prosecutors allege that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a scheme to mislead investors about the state and capabilities of the company’s blood-testing technology and defrauded them out of more than $100 million. The prosecutors also allege that the pair defrauded doctors and patients by knowingly misleading them with false advertising and marketing that stated that their company could provide accurate and reliable health tests on just drops of blood from a finger-prick with their proprietary technology.

Later investigations, sparked by reporting by the Wall Street Journal, revealed that Theranos' blood testing tech was flawed and faulty. The findings led to a dizzying downward spiral of lawsuits, regulatory sanctions, and tens of thousands of blood tests results being corrected or voided.

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15 Jun 20:43

How Harvard limits the number of Asian applicants it accepts

by John Sexton

A group called Students for Fair Admissions sued Harvard contending that the school’s admissions process significantly and unfairly limits the percentage of Asians who are accepted each year. Today the NY Times reports that an analysis of Harvard admissions records filed in support of the group’s lawsuit shows the school is consistently downgrading Asian applicants on subjective personal qualities in a way that reduces their overall admissions rate:

Harvard consistently rated Asian-American applicants lower than any other race on personal traits like “positive personality,” likability, courage, kindness and being “widely respected,” according to an analysis of more than 160,000 student records filed Friday in federal court in Boston by a group representing Asian-American students in a lawsuit against the university.

Asian-Americans scored higher than applicants of any other racial or ethnic group on admissions measures like test scores, grades and extracurricular activities, according to the analysis commissioned by a group that opposes all race-based admissions criteria. But the students’ personal ratings significantly dragged down their chances of being admitted, the analysis found.

“It turns out that the suspicions of Asian-American alumni, students and applicants were right all along,” the group, Students for Fair Admissions, said in a court document laying out the analysis. “Harvard today engages in the same kind of discrimination and stereotyping that it used to justify quotas on Jewish applicants in the 1920s and 1930s.”

So, according to Harvard, it’s not that they are holding back hardworking Asian applicants using vague personal traits, it’s just that so many otherwise talented Asian applicants aren’t likable, courageous, kind, or respected. Wow, okay, Harvard. Are you sure you want to go with that?

And yes, Harvard introduced its more subjective approach to admissions in 1926, in part, to limit the percentage of Jews who were admitted to the school. So this isn’t something new. In fact, there’s more recent evidence from Harvard itself that this same trick is now being used against Asian Americans.

In 2013, Harvard performed an internal review of its admissions process. The review concluded that if the school only considered academic standing when granting admissions, Asian-Americans would make up 43% of the incoming class.

After accounting for Harvard’s preference for recruited athletes and legacy applicants, the proportion of whites went up, while the share of Asian-Americans fell to 31 percent. Accounting for extracurricular and personal ratings, the share of whites rose again, and Asian-Americans fell to 26 percent.

What brought the Asian-American number down to roughly 18 percent, or about the actual share, was accounting for a category called “demographic,” the study found. This pushed up African-American and Hispanic numbers, while reducing whites and Asian-Americans.

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit claim Harvard buried the results of the internal review when it didn’t like what they found. Of course, the fear lurking behind all of this is that exposure of these unfair admissions practices could eventually lead to the end of all affirmative action policies in admissions.

Both sides filed papers Friday asking for summary judgment, an immediate ruling in their favor. If the judge denies those requests, as is likely, a trial has been scheduled for October. If it goes on to the Supreme Court, it could upend decades of affirmative action policies at colleges and universities across the country.

Harvard’s most recent incoming class was 22.2% Asian American. Asian-Americans make up about 5.2% of the U.S. population.

The post How Harvard limits the number of Asian applicants it accepts appeared first on Hot Air.

15 Jun 20:23

Another DNA Testing Company Reportedly Gets Fooled by Dog DNA

by Ed Cara

Consumer DNA testing is going to the dogs. A Canadian testing company has been accused of sending back supposedly human ancestry results on a faux sample that actually came from a chihuahua named Snoopy, CBC News reported Wednesday. Remarkably, it’s the second company reported to have been fooled by doggy DNA in…

Read more...

15 Jun 19:49

Towards An International Court of Smart Contract Arbitration

by Alex Tabarrok
Jack

I'm not sure what to make of this.

Firms involved in international commerce routinely contract that disputes are to be resolved by private courts of arbitration such as the International Court of Arbitration, the London Court of International Arbitration or the Singapore International Arbitration Center. These courts of arbitration compete for clients and thus have an incentive to resolve disputes fairly, quickly and inexpensively. Courts compete, for example, to provide arbiters who are experts not simply in the law but in the relevant area of commerce. The New York Convention of 1958 says that private arbitration decisions will be enforced by the national courts of any of the 159 signatories; thus private arbitration leverages national enforcement but is otherwise not tethered to national law (e.g. in US see, Mitsubishi v. Soler Chrysler, National Oil v. Libyan Sun). Over time private courts of international arbitration have developed a system of law that transcends nations, an anational law–this is the new lex mercatoria.

I propose that courts analogous to the courts of arbitration that govern international commerce be created to govern smart contracts in virtual space. Arbitration of smart contracts will develop a new private law that will evolve to meet the needs of virtual commerce, a true lex cryptographia. At first, it might seem contradictory to advocate for courts of smart contracts and the development of lex cryptographia. Isn’t the whole point of smart contracts that no courts or lawyers are needed? Similarly, lex cryptographia is usually understood to refer to the smart contracts themselves–code is law–rather than to law governing such contracts. In fact, it is neither desirable nor possible to divorce smart contracts from law.

Smart contracts execute automatically but only simple contracts such as those involving escrow are really self-enforcing. Most contracts, smart or dumb, involve touchstones with the real world. Canonical examples such as the smart contract that lets you use an automobile so long as the rent has been paid illustrate the potential for disputes. Bugs in the code? Disputes over the quality of the car? What happens when a data feed is disputed or internet service is disrupted? Smart contracts applied to the real world are a kind of digital rights management with all of DRMs problems and annoyances.

Some of these problems can be dealt with online using decentralized mechanisms. But we don’t yet know which decentralized mechanisms are robust or cost-effective. Moreover, when marveling at the wisdom of crowds we should not forget the wisdom of experts. Nick Szabo once remarked that if contract law was suddenly forgotten it would take hundreds of years to recover the embedded wisdom. Contract law, for example, is filled with concepts like mistake, misrepresentation, duress, negligence and intention that are not easily formalized in code. Contract law is a human enterprise. And the humans who write contracts want law with terms like negligence precisely because these terms fill in for gaps which cannot be filled in and formalized in contracts let alone in code.

I am enthusiastic about smart contracts on blockchains. Smart contracts will significantly reduce transaction costs and thus let people create valuable, new private orderings. But it will be more profitable to integrate law and code than to try to replace law with code. Integration will require new ways of thinking. The natural language version of a contract–what the parties intend to agree to–may not map precisely to the coded version. Arbiters will be called in to adjudicate and thus will have to be experts in code as well as in law. Smart contracts can be made by anonymous parties who may want a dispute resolved not just privately but anonymously. Smart contracts can be designed with escrow and multisignatory authority so arbiters will also become decision enforcers. All of these issues and many more will have to be understood and new procedures and understandings developed. The competitive market process will discover novel uses for smart contracts and the competitive market process among arbiters will discover novel law. Law will adjust to business practice and business practice to law.

In short, the best way to create a vital new lex cryptographia is through competitive, private arbitration built on the model that already governs international commerce.

The post Towards An International Court of Smart Contract Arbitration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

15 Jun 19:32

Which system should be redesigned from scratch?

by Tyler Cowen

Here is another question I didn’t get to answer from last night:

Your blog talks about making small marginal improvements, but if you could redesign one system entirely from scratch, which one would it be, and how would it look compared to what is currently in place?

One answer would be “blogging, I would have much more of it.”  But my main answer would be higher education, especially those tiers below the top elite universities.  Completion rates are astonishingly low, and also not very transparent (maybe about 40 percent?).  I would ensure that every single student receives a reasonable amount of one-on-one tutoring and/or mentoring in his or her first two years.  In return, along budgetary lines, I would sacrifice whatever else needs to go, in order to assure that end.  If we’re all standing around in robes, arguing philosophy under the proverbial painted porch, so be it.  At the same time, I would boost science funding at the top end.

I also would experiment with abolishing the idea of degree “completion” altogether.  Maybe you simply finish with an “assessment,” or rather you never quite finish at all, since you might return to take a class when you are 43.  Why cannot this space be more finely grained, especially in an age of information technology?

At lower ages, I would do everything possible to move away from having all of the children belong to the exact same age group.  The Boy Scouts are a better model here than “the 7th grade.”

The NBA is one institution that I feel is working really well at the moment. and I don’t just say that because I root for Golden State.  Though that doesn’t hurt any, either.

The post Which system should be redesigned from scratch? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

07 Jun 16:01

The fundamental flaw at the heart of Switzerland's revolutionary referendum on banking

by Will Martin
Jack

I hadn't heard about this.

Switzerland

  • Martin Brown, a professor of banking at the University of St. Gallen, and former economist at the Swiss National Bank, explains the fatal flaw in the logic of Switzerland's banking reform referendum.
  • "Most academic economists are very sceptical, not just about this vote, but about the whole campaign for monetary reform which goes in the direction of sovereign money," Brown told Business Insider.
  • Swiss citizens will this weekend vote on an initiative called Vollgeld.
  • The initiative essentially boils down to moving consumer deposits off the balance sheets of high street banks, and holding them instead with the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Switzerland's central bank.


LONDON — A Swiss referendum to overhaul the country's financial system misunderstands how banks fail and won't make them safer, according to a leading academic.

On Sunday, a referendum will be held asking Swiss citizens if they back the introduction of a concept known as the sovereign money initiative, proposed by a group called the Vollgeld Initiative.See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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06 Jun 04:40

A Hong Kong couple bought a single parking space for $433,000 and flipped it for $760,000 in just 9 months

by Rosie Perper
Jack

Wow

Hong KongFlickr / Loïc Lagarde

  • A single parking space in Hong Kong that was bought for $430,000 less than a year ago was just resold for $760,000.
  • A local couple initially bought the spot in the luxury Ultima complex in 2017 and resold it nine months later for nearly double that, setting a new property world record. 
  • Hong Kong continues to break property records, and the Ultima complex now tops of the list of most expensive places in the world to park a car.


A single parking space in Hong Kong that was bought for $430,000 less than a year ago was just resold for HK$6 million ($760,000), setting a new property world record. 

The parking space at the luxury Ultima project located in the Kowloon district was initially bought in September 2017 by a local couple for HK$3.4 million ($430,000), according to land registry documents seen by the South China Morning PostSee the rest of the story at Business Insider

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05 Jun 07:10

7-2: SCOTUS rules in favor of baker who refused to make cake for gay wedding

by Allahpundit

A nice win that’ll hopefully provide the foundation for a more sweeping victory later, but this isn’t the home run righties were hoping for. Conservatives wanted the Court to hold that business owners have a First Amendment right to free exercise of religion that trumps antidiscimination laws, at least with respect to catering gay weddings. What the Court actually held is that *in this particular case* Colorado’s antidiscrimination commission was so openly hostile to Jack Phillips’s religious claims, dismissing his beliefs as insincere and holding him to a double standard that pro-gay business owners weren’t held to, that they violated his particular right to free exercise.

Which leaves undecided the key question: What if the commission had been more respectful of Phillips? What if they had carefully considered his religious objection yet still concluded that he was required under the law to bake the cake? Would that decision be constitutional? That’s the question righties wanted answered — not whether the law here was unconstitutional as applied to Phillips but whether it’s always and necessarily unconstitutional whenever a sincere claim of conscientious objection is made by a business owner. Jack Phillips won, but would you win under the same circumstances with a more respectful commission hearing your claim? Unclear.

Would’ve been nice for the Court to resolve that now, when there’s still a conservative majority, but this narrower ruling may have been as far as Anthony Kennedy (who’s written all of the Court’s landmark gay-rights rulings over the past 25 years) was willing to go. It’s so narrow, in fact, that it produced a not-so-narrow majority: Breyer and Kagan felt comfortable joining the conservatives because all the Court ended up deciding here, really, is that business owners’ free-exercise rights should at least be *considered* when applying antidiscrimination laws against them. In that sense the decision is a solid win for the right. The strong-form left-wing view that religious objections to serving gay weddings are necessarily bigoted and/or irrational and therefore can’t lawfully provide an exemption to antidiscrimination statutes is out the window. The Christian viewpoint is a reasonable one. Just not the one that prevails in future cases, perhaps.

Here’s Kennedy writing for the Court, noting how ridiculously hostile the commission was to Phillips:

It’s not (necessarily) that the law was unconstitutional, in other words, it’s that the “judge” in this case, the commission, behaved unconstitutionally in its hostility to religion. And that’s not the only way they showed their bias, notes Kennedy. The commission argued that Phillips was silly to claim that putting a pro-gay message on a cake at a customer’s request would offend his conscience. But when other bakers refused to put anti-gay messages on a cake at other customers’ requests, the commission ruled that that would indeed be an affront to their consciences.

They were in the tank against Phillips because they have contempt for the traditional Christian view of gay marriage and they weren’t afraid to show it. The obvious possibility this decision creates is that antidiscrimination commissions going forward will continue to be in the tank against Christians but will simply be more careful about showing it, remaining unfailingly polite to religious business owners at public hearings and then consistently ruling against them. What would SCOTUS do in that case? That’s the question we were hoping to have answered today but the Court ducked.

Here’s Kennedy’s conclusion, essentially punting the matter to lower courts to sort these cases out in an ad hoc way. Open hostility to either side’s viewpoint is a no-no, but beyond that we’re on a wing and a prayer:

One other little quirk in the opinion: Kennedy notes that when this case first arose, SCOTUS hadn’t yet declared gay marriage a constitutional right and Colorado hadn’t yet legalized gay marriage. “Since the State itself did not allow those marriages to be performed in Colorado,” wrote Kennedy, “there is some force to the argument that the baker was not unreasonable in deeming it lawful to decline to take an action that he understood to be an expression of support for their validity when that expression was contrary to his sincerely held religious beliefs…” Can’t fault Jack Phillips for thinking it was okay to refuse to serve gay weddings when that was the policy of the state of Colorado itself. But that leads to another obvious question: Now that gay marriage is legal from coast to coast, will future Phillipses have less of a leg to stand on in cases like these? They’re on notice that gay weddings aren’t illegal, whatever they may happen to think about their morality.

Exit question via Erick Erickson: If the commission’s public statements evincing hostility to religion were enough to decide this matter, what other matters might be decided by public statements evincing hostility to religion?

Update: Much pithier summaries of the decision:

The post 7-2: SCOTUS rules in favor of baker who refused to make cake for gay wedding appeared first on Hot Air.

04 Jun 05:55

California fails to block shipment of Elon Musk’s (not a) flamethrower

by Jazz Shaw

For those who may have missed it over the winter, back in February, SpaceX boss Elon Musk had a bit of a fundraising/marketing initiative going. He was selling ballcaps for his Boring Company subsidiary, who are generally involved in planning tunneling for the Hyperloop. Seemingly as a joke, he claimed that if they could sell 50,000 of the hats for twenty bucks each he would start selling flamethrowers. Because Musk has attracted an army of fans who basically think of him as the real-life Tony Stark, the hats sold out.

True to his word, he put the engineers at Boring Company to work and announced they had developed the promised flamethrower and would sell 20,000 of them, each with their own serial number, for $500 bucks a shot. But how many people would actually send him half a grand for a flamethrower that didn’t really even exist yet? They sold out in less than 48 hours.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I ordered one in the first two hours after the offer went up online.

Out in California, Democrats quickly proved that the one thing they really can’t stand is the idea of somebody, somewhere having any fun. Legislators quickly began working on plans to thwart the sales and delivery of the devices. Complaints were raised about concerns over wildfires or just sending the wrong message. Musk initially responded by saying that if they didn’t want him selling flamethrowers he would change the name. The product is now called the “Not a Flamethrower.”

That still wasn’t good enough for the wet blankets in the crowd and the state moved forward with a bill designed to block Musk’s plans. But as Ars Technica reports this week, that effort finally collapsed and the bill died in committee.

A California state bill that would have more heavily regulated the use of flamethrowers has now effectively fizzled out in a legislative committee.

In light of this development, there’s nothing to stop Boring Company customers in California from receiving the company’s sold-out flamethrowers.

On May 26, the day after the bill died in committee, CEO Elon Musk tweeted:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1000509888534007809

It was probably too late anyway. The production models were already finished and preparing to ship. Check out this very short video of a couple of the Boring Company workers playing around with them.

Musk had previously said that everyone who had ordered one would need to sign off on an end-user agreement before the (not a) flamethrower would be shipped. We received ours last month and I wound up tweeting a couple of pages of it which struck me as particularly amusing.

New York State also talked about trying to ban the flamethrower deliveries, but those efforts didn’t go anywhere either. Most of the country already has bans on actual flamethrowers like the ones used by the military in combat, but those laws don’t apply to devices which throw a flame less than ten feet. Musk dialed his back so the flames wouldn’t break the ten foot barrier. And if California and New York want to crack down on devices with shorter flames, they immediately run into a situation where they would be reclassifying and restricting any number of common industrial devices. It just wasn’t worth the hassle.

I’ll let you all know when ours arrives and we get some sort of a video put together. I plan on killing a zombie.

The post California fails to block shipment of Elon Musk’s (not a) flamethrower appeared first on Hot Air.

04 Jun 01:06

Is there a Chinese salamander bubble?

by Tyler Cowen

Bizarrely, only 3 percent of the animals raised by the farms are eventually sold to restaurants. The rest are sold to more start-up farms. This absurd amphibian Ponzi scheme so inflated the worth of the salamanders that a small, 2-kilogram individual could sell for around $1,500. As a result, people began supplementing the farmed stock by illegally collecting the animals from the wild. “The high prices created a sort of salamander rush,” says Jing Che from the Kunming Institute of Zoology, who was involved in the recent study.

That is from Ed Yong, via Brian Slesinsky.

The post Is there a Chinese salamander bubble? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

28 May 19:42

Philip Roth’s 2004 warning about demagogues is more relevant than ever

by Ezra Klein
President Barack Obama presents the 2010 National Humanities Medal to novelist Philip Roth.

Philip Roth, Donald Trump, and The Plot Against America.

On March 30, literary agent Erik Hane wrote a lament about the way Donald Trump’s presidency loomed over the drafts crossing his desk. Assessing “an inbox full of novels promising fascist regimes, stolen elections, unhinged presidents, and the looming threat of nuclear war,” Hane worried that “these authors are not writing the political moment so much as the moment is writing them.”

But one author did write this political moment, and he died last week. In 2004, Philip Roth published The Plot Against America, a work of alternative historical fiction imagining a world where Charles Lindbergh drove Franklin D. Roosevelt from office. As we mourn Roth’s passing, it is worth remembering his warning.

Roth’s Lindbergh sweeps to the presidency on, literally, an “America First!” ticket. He takes over a fractured Republican Party and campaigns against the advice of consultants and politicians, flying his own plane around the country, offering plainspoken denunciations of interventionism and identity politics.

“We cannot blame them for looking out for what they believe to be their own interests, but we must also look out for ours,” says Roth’s Lindbergh of the Jews. “We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction.”

This, throughout The Plot Against America, is Lindbergh’s message: that America is being taken advantage of, that it has lost sight of its own needs amid the clamoring of its interest groups, that its diversity has become a weakness, that the world will only respect us if we elect a leader whose steel they fear.

The crowds roar in response. “Lindbergh can deal with Hitler, they said, Hitler respects him because he’s Lindbergh. Mussolini and Hirohito respect him because he’s Lindbergh.” The echoes of Republicans cheering Trump’s aggression and brazenness as a foreign policy unto itself ring loudly.

Lindbergh wins an upset victory, of course, and Roth is damning in his portrait of how quickly the political system adjusts, how easily it abandons its old sureties to embrace a new inevitability:

Though on the morning after the election disbelief prevailed, especially among the pollsters, by the next everybody seemed to understand everything. The radio commentators and the news columnists made it sound as if Roosevelt’s defeat had been preordained. What had happened, they explained, was that Americans had shown themselves unwilling to break the tradition of the two-term presidency that George Washington had instituted and that no president before Roosevelt had dared to challenge. Moreover, in the aftermath of the Depression, the resurgent confidence of young and old alike had been quickened by Lindbergh’s relative youth and by the graceful athleticism that contrasted so starkly with the serious physical impediments under which FDR labored as a polio victim.

Though the explanations for Lindbergh’s victory are different from the ones that followed Trump’s — though the emphasis on the Democratic candidate’s physical stamina offers an unexpected echo — the dynamics by which the political system rushes to make conceptual peace with whoever wins the election feel desperately familiar.

The great power of The Plot Against America is its restraint. Roth’s Lindbergh is a far more credible candidate than our Trump. He is calm and convincing, eloquent and careful. Alternative history tends to deal in wild hypotheticals — what if aliens invaded during World War II? What if time travelers gave the South machine guns during the Civil War? — but Roth tilts reality a mere five degrees off its axis. He builds a world we can imagine inhabiting, a demagogue we can imagine electing. Then he watches it all unfold through the eyes of a Jewish child — a child whose nightmares return, whose family turns on itself, whose sense of safety is shattered; a child whose alarm manifests in ways instantly familiar to anyone reading the stories of immigrant children today.

The world Roth paints is more believable than our own. That is why its warning was so prescient. Even before Trump, Roth knew what much of America’s political class had forgotten: that the boundaries of the possible were wider than either the Democratic or Republican parties believed, that isolationism and xenophobia are powerful tools in the hands of a charismatic political outsider, that there is nothing in the American heart that inoculates us against the allure of demagogues.

“The truly resonant Trump Novels won’t actually be about Trump,” predicted Hane, and he’s right. The Plot Against America resonates so deeply precisely because it’s not about Trump — because it’s about someone more subtle, more appealing, and thus, more dangerous. The Plot Against America resonates because it is about us, because it is convincing in its argument that it can happen here, that there will always be those among us who want it to happen here, and if we are not vigilant, someday, it will.

If Roth’s book has a weakness, it comes at its end, when the Lindbergh administration collapses in a way I, as a reader, found somewhat absurd. I won’t spoil the plot, but on reflection, while the denouement is ridiculous, it is scarier for it: It feels like Roth wrote a fascist takeover of American politics so realistic that even he couldn’t write a convincing way out.

We are perhaps lucky that in 2018, for all the awful policies and real horrors, our story is thick with plot holes and absurdities. We do not need to reach for the deus ex machina Roth did to imagine escape. But if America is to learn the hard lessons of this era, it will need to grapple not just with the very real danger posed by Trump’s unpopular, improbable, incompetent presidency but with the threat posed by the cannier strain of demagogue Roth reminded us to fear.

20 May 01:35

U.S. transit systems are shedding riders. Are they under threat?

by Yonah Freemark

» Transit agencies are losing ridership across the country. Just how bad is this problem?

Between 1996 and 2014, overall transit ridership in the U.S. grew by about 35 percent, roughly twice as quickly as the nation’s population as a whole. That increase was driven, to a large degree, by very significant growth in boardings on New York City’s Subway, which in 2017 accounted for more than a quarter of all transit trips in the country. The rest of the country kept up, seeing relatively steady increases, particularly in places where new light rail systems opened.

Yet over the past few years, the trend reversed itself. Overall ridership declined by about six percent, or almost 600 million rides annually, between 2014 and 2017. In the context of the breakdown in service on New York’s Subway, the crises of confidence in Washington’s Metro, the arrival of ride-hailing services, and automated vehicle testing, the future of American transit now feels unsteady.

To conservatives like economist Tyler Cowen, the recent trends are simply a reflection of the fact that “mass transit is largely a 20th century technology, it is being slowly abandoned, and in the United States at least its future is dim.”

Should we actually be worried about transit’s recent ridership declines—are we facing an emergency? And to what degree are they reflective of some sort of long-term transition?

These are subjects that have been (and continue to be) meticulously analyzed and researched by scholars of all sorts, so I’m hardly the first and won’t be the last to weigh in. But in the face of what appears to me as either growing hysteria (about the chances for transit’s survival), or technological/public choice triumphalism (about the fact that Americans are moving out of transit because of its deficiencies and thus that it can be abandoned in favor of new options), I’d like to take a step back to calm the waters, so to speak.

What I argue here is that what we’re seeing now is unquestionably a decline in transit ridership—almost universal among large cities. Yet there are reasons to believe it isn’t a permanent shift, given that its causes don’t appear to be primarily related to technological change. Transit’s recent woes are thus hardly insurmountable. But the future of American transit systems—their ability to support today’s riders as well as to attract new ones—is dependent on a rejection of fears of decline and a political willingness to invest in change.

How much is transit ridership falling?

Ridership on the nation’s transit systems declined steadily between its peak in 2014 and 2017, according to national-level data provided by the American Public Transportation Association, and those trends appear to be continuing into 2018, according to month-by-month statistics reported by the Federal Transit Administration.

This is the longest continuous period of declines in national public transportation use since at least 1990. Though transit ridership overall remains significantly higher than it was in the 1990s, on a per-capita basis, ridership is now reaching the depths of the mid-1990s. This means that the nation’s transit systems not only have been unable to maintain their recent levels of use, but also that they are systematically losing mode share. In other words, people are switching to other options to get around.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

This is undoubtedly a depressing trend for the nation’s transit operators. But to magnify the less than 10 percent decline over the past few years into a new trend is, I think, going too far.

That’s because transit’s role in American society has been declining for decades. What we see as a recent loss is, when zooming out, more accurately the continuation of a century of efforts by public and private forces in the U.S. to diminish the role of public transportation and replace it with, primarily, private car use. A country whose cities were once largely oriented toward transit has changed direction.

As the following graph shows, transit hasn’t accounted for more than 10 percent of overall commutes since before 1970—and the share of people driving alone to work has stayed relatively steady at around 75 percent since 1990.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

In other words, the significant decline over the past few years is reinforcing what has been happening for ages, probably not reflecting the availability of new transportation modes likes ride-hailing or a sudden change of interest of the public away from transit.

It’s worth, though, considering how these changes have occurred at the urban scale, within specific cities, since national-level trends only tell us so much. Given the fact that the U.S. has for decades been hostile to investment in transit and has perpetuated automobile-based travel options and related land uses, it would be surprising to see anything else for the country as a whole. That’s not as true within specific cities, where the story is more nuanced.

Among major urban regions, as shown in the following graph, most have seen an overall transit ridership decline since 2015. There are exceptions—notably Houston and Seattle—but the trends suggest a concerning decline.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the most recent ridership figures (March 2018) show higher ridership today than in 2002 in half of the urban regions profiled below. The Minneapolis, New York, and Seattle regions all have significantly higher ridership now than they did then. Moreover, while the recent declines are large, so were those in these cities between 2009 and 2011.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

We also must examine changes among different transit modes. Between 2016 and 2017, all major transit modes—bus, light rail, commuter rail, and heavy rail—lost ridership. But these trends are recent; the past thirty years have been a story of growth in rail use and declines in bus ridership. Total U.S. transit ridership is about 10 percent higher now than it was in 1990, with commuter rail, heavy rail, and light rail use 52, 58, and 271 percent higher, respectively, than then. But bus use has fallen by at least 17 percent. As a result, buses now account for just 48 percent of overall U.S. transit ridership, compared to 64 percent in 1990.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

Ridership declines among bus systems are practically universal. Among the U.S. urban areas with the highest bus use, all have fewer riders today than they had in 2004—except Seattle, which has 32 percent more.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

Ridership on light rail systems, on the other hand, has not changed much, with the exception of a large dip in Boston and large increase in Seattle. Heavy rail use did decline on most systems since 2016, but all systems except those in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Washington are carrying more riders now than they did in 2002.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

What can we take from these changes, then? Unquestionably the decline in bus ridership in most cities is dramatic and is, in itself, the primary cause of general ridership declines among U.S. systems.

But that decline should be put within context. Between 1990 and 1996, U.S. bus use fell by almost 14 percent. That’s a far larger decline than that between 2012 and 2017. In other words, recent trends are not a historical anomaly. Moreover, recent bus ridership peaked in 2006, eight years before ride hailing was commonly available. Finally, the decline in ridership among other sorts of transit over the past year—notably most heavy and light rail systems—suggests that whatever is occurring now is not just about bus systems.

What is causing the decline?

There are a number of reasonable explanations that might spell out why transit networks have suffered from reduced use in recent years. Noah Smith points to higher employment levels, lower gas prices, and the availability of on-demand rides. Each of those changes make it more feasible for more people to use automobiles to get around. It is also worth pointing out that the declining population of lower-income people in city centers has likely shifted a large share of transit users out of the area accessibly by public transportation.

Recent research by Michael Manville, Brian Taylor, and Evelyn Blumenberg of UCLA delves into the Los Angeles experience specifically. They find that there has been a large growth in household vehicle ownership (in part due to the ability of immigrants to get licenses), and that combined with higher fares has meant lower transit use.

Indeed, Americans have been on something of a car-buying spree since the recession. The number of vehicles per capita increased dramatically from 0.83 in 2010 to 0.89 in 2016. Meanwhile, the number of miles Americans drive per capita increased by about 5 percent between 2014 and 2017. They were driving instead of hopping on the bus or train.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

What the researchers don’t find has had much of an effect are gas prices. While it is true that higher transit use nationwide between 2000 and 2008 coincided with higher gas prices, the increase in gas prices from early 2016 to now has not been reflected in higher transit use.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

The researchers also argue that ride-hailing has not had much of a role to play in the declines, as LA’s ridership drops began far earlier than such services were offered. If there is increased automobile use, it is primarily in people driving around in their own cars. And in fact, there appears to be little relationship between the growth in ride-hailing and peak-hour transit ridership. This seems reasonable given the fact that in most major transit-using cities, the share of commuters using transit to get to work remained relatively stable from 2014 to 2016.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

On the other hand, discretionary transit ridership seems to have been hit heavily by recent trends. New York City’s Subway system, for example, saw a roughly 2.3 percent decline in ridership on weekdays between February 2016 and February 2018. But its weekend ridership fell by 4.7 percent over the same period, almost twice as large a decline.

It seems reasonable to conclude that a combination of poor off-peak service and the availability of cheap ride-hailing options has encouraged people to stop using transit during these periods.

While many advocates have suggested that one potential solution to declining transit ridership is increasing service—pointing to Seattle, notably, as evidence for this case—the UCLA researchers aren’t convinced. I’m of mixed minds.

While it is true that the LA region offers significantly less bus service than it did in 2004—almost 15 percent less according to recent data—it’s the worst among all regions. The Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington regions all offer substantially more bus service than then (all have increased service more than Seattle), but each has seen its ridership decline substantially over the same period.

It is true that Seattle increased bus service by 7 percent between 2015 and 2018 and saw a 1 percent increase in bus ridership. But Baltimore increased its service by 8 percent and saw a decline in ridership of 13 percent. There isn’t a direct correspondence here.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

Can transit agencies be acting to address ridership decline?

Increasing and improving transit service won’t automatically mean higher ridership, as the examples above illustrate. Moreover, it is difficult to avoid the broader trends affecting the economy as a whole.

Nevertheless, Seattle is special. Since 2002, its urban area transit ridership has increased by 50 percent. It has increased by 8 percent since 2015 alone. Certainly the opening of that region’s Central Link light rail line in 2009 and its extension to the University of Washington in 2016 were key changes. Effective light rail services that allow easy transfers to bus routes, combined with Seattle’s creation of several bus-priority routes, likely stemmed what otherwise would have been lower bus usage.

But perhaps most importantly, Seattle has pursued a transit policy that rewards using transit in the off-peak period. The city, for example, has increased the share of its residents who live within a 10-minute walk of a transit service that runs at least every 10 minutes all day from 51 percent in 2016 to 64 percent in 2017.

It also has a fare policy that encourages people to buy unlimited passes. For example, a monthly pass costs the equivalent of 36 single trips—meaning that people who ride two times a day during the week (40 trips/month) have a strong incentive to buy it. In Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York, the equivalent ratios are 42, 57, and 46 trips per month, respectively. In other words, weekday commuters in Seattle, unlike their counterparts elsewhere, might as well upgrade to unlimited all-day transit. That, then, encourages them to take buses and trains during the middle of the day or on weekends “for free,” when, were they to have to “pay for it,” they might otherwise take a ride-hailing service or their own cars.

Seattle, unlike most other cities, also has discounts for low-income riders, a policy that is now fortunately being discussed in New York.*

U.S. cities won’t realistically invest in the sort of game-changing expansion of urban metro systems that the Chinese central government has undertaken over the past few years. That kind of investment (or similar improvements made throughout Asia and Europe) could, I am convinced, make a major contribution in altering American society to increase transit ridership. These projects are also evidence that there is no “slow abandonment” of transit elsewhere in the world.

U.S. cities have, thanks to destructive public policies and poor attention to service provision, chosen the ridership declines they are now experiencing.

The declines in ridership we’re experiencing today appear to be primarily a continuation of a century-long trend of general transit mode share loss at the national level, combined with a cyclical change in major cities. The last few years have meant a loss of transit users in most urban regions, and the crises in New York and Washington haven’t helped. Yet ridership will likely come back, especially since per-capita driving appears to be, once again, headed down.

Interactive version of the above chart on Transport Databook.

Seattle’s focused investment in new light rail and improved bus service, combined with a reasonable fare policy, does seem to be working in the meantime. Other cities that make similar improvements, however, cannot assume that similar improvements will mean more riders.

But perhaps that shouldn’t even be the primary goal. Lost in the context of the discussion of ridership decline is the reality that the large majority of transit riders continue to be transit riders. A large share of them cannot afford ride-hailing alternatives or their own cars. Others simply prefer the convenience, lower price, and ease of taking transit. They deserve our attention just as much as—if not more than—potential future riders. Making their commutes easier, faster, and more affordable is a public policy goal in itself.

Despite the hoopla about the rise of ride-hailing and the excitement about automated vehicles, U.S. cities have an opportunity to attempt to address ridership decline while improving the quality of the daily lives of existing transit users. Making a genuine effort to improve their lives will, I am convinced, eventually bring more people back onto systems.

The most significant threat to transit’s revival isn’t the current trend itself. It is acquiescence to that trend. Convinced by the argument that transit is retrograde—nowhere to go but down—and unworthy of improvement, city and state officials may simply allow its slow abandonment. Those officials, however, would be making an ideological choice about the future of urban transportation, choosing a particular technological future rather than challenging themselves to make their existing transit systems work well. In doing so, they’d be leaving millions of people behind.

Data on many of the trends and issues discussed here are available on Transport Databook.

* Jonathan Hopkins notes on Twitter that transit passes are considered a job benefit in Seattle, an important additional cause of the city’s transit use.

13 May 22:30

Impasse broken in talks to form Italian government

by Giada Zampano
11 May 20:01

NBC: Congress working up “Plan B” for Mueller defense

by Ed Morrissey

Plan A, or Operation Protect Mueller, hasn’t panned out well. Although the Senate Judiciary Committee passed a bill on a 14-7 vote that would in essence turn the special counsel position into a civil-service job, Mitch McConnell refuses to bring it to the Senate floor. Not only will Trump not sign it, McConnell argues, the House won’t bother to vote on it, much less pass it, and it’s unconstitutional to boot.

Hence, as NBC reports, Plan B:

If Congress can’t protect special counsel Robert Mueller’s job, perhaps it can protect his work.

That’s the thinking among several lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who are discussing ways to safeguard the special counsel’s investigation into possible ties between the Trump 2016 campaign and Russia amid President Donald Trump’s escalating attacks. …

According to three people briefed on the discussions, ideas include: Requiring that Congress receive Mueller’s final report; allowing Mueller, in the event he is fired, to release his findings publicly; or allowing him to resign and release his work if he feels his investigation is being improperly stifled.

The effort builds on one Republican-sponsored provision included in the original bill, the so-called Special Counsel Independence and Integrity Act, a compromise measure from Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Democrats Chris Coons of Delaware and Cory Booker of New Jersey.

At least Plan B has fewer constitutional issues than Plan A. The president has plenary authority to terminate executive branch appointees, and doesn’t need to show cause. As I pointed out more than once, the problem with special counsels is a lack of accountability, not an overabundance of it. Attempting to removing even more accountability makes the problem worse, even if one believes that any specific special counsel might have enough integrity to avoid the necessity of oversight.

This effort falls better into Congress’ legitimate oversight role over the executive branch. The special counsel exists as a function within the Department of Justice, and Congress can require the DoJ to turn over its internal materials, subpoenaing them if necessary. That makes this bill a bit redundant, as Congress could simply subpoena the Mueller report or his work in progress after a firing as it is. Redundancy isn’t a constitutional defect, though, nor an inordinate power grab.

However, this still dances all around the core problem, which is that Mueller’s doing the job that Congress should have been doing all along. The special counsel was unnecessary in two different ways. First, there was not a specific crime alleged, and even if a conflict existed in pursuing an investigation of a crime, there shouldn’t have been a special counsel appointed until a specific crime could be established — and not just a process crime, such as obstruction due to false statements by peripheral characters. Second, Congress has the constitutional authority and duty to provide oversight over the executive, and the proper remedy to high crimes and misdemeanors uncovered in those probes is either impeachment and removal or censure — not a grand jury.

That’s water under the bridge, though, so we’re left with Plan B. Could it pass both the House and Senate? Probably, assuming McConnell and Paul Ryan allow it to come to a vote on their respective floors, but Donald Trump is still likely to veto it. If Congress wants to move the probe outside of Trump’s purview, then they should do their jobs rather than demand that the DoJ outsource it to unaccountable roving prosecutors.

The post NBC: Congress working up “Plan B” for Mueller defense appeared first on Hot Air.

11 May 20:00

The rap music, vegan muffin fiasco at Duke University (Update: Coffee shop is leaving campus)

by John Sexton
Jack

Idiotic all the way around. At least the coffee chain showed some integrity.

I can’t say that this is an important story but it’s definitely an amusing one and possibly telling about this cultural moment in some ways. Today the President of Duke University apologized for an incident that took place last week which resulted in the firing of two baristas. From the Chronicle of Higher Education:

Duke University’s president, Vincent E. Price, apologized on Thursday for the recent firing of two baristas at a campus coffee shop, according to the student newspaper. In a written statement, Price noted “that we are not where we want to be as a university.”…

“I am, in particular, sorry that the words of one of my senior administrators recently resulted in two individuals working for one of our on-campus vendors losing their jobs; and while I am pleased that the vendor has taken steps to reverse this action, I apologize for the precipitous and unfair treatment these employees experienced,” Price wrote, according to the student newspaper. “We must do better.”

The story behind the firing, which involves a rap song and a vegan muffin, is almost too dumb to be true and yet… Conor Friedersdorf at the Atlantic wrote about it Wednesday:

Last week, Larry Moneta, Duke’s vice president of student affairs, stopped into his regular coffee shop in the student center, Joe Van Gogh, for a hot tea and a vegan muffin. The business was streaming music on Spotify, per usual, and as the university administrator stood waiting in line, “Get Paid” by Young Dolph happened to be playing. Its endlessly repeated refrain is “Get paid, young nigga, get paid.”

An alt-weekly, Indy Week, wrote a detailed story about the incident describing what happened next:

Britni Brown, who was manning the register, was in charge of the playlist that day.

When he approached the counter, Moneta, a white man, told Brown, an African-American woman, that the song was inappropriate.

“The words, ‘I’ll eff you upside down,’ are inappropriate,” Moneta said, according to Brown. (Those exact lyrics are not in the song, though it has plenty of f-bombs.)

“Yes, of course,” Brown said. She says she shut the song off immediately. She grabbed him a vegan muffin and offered it free of charge.

“No,” Brown recalls Moneta saying. “Ring me up for it.”

Brown says she offered again, apologizing for the offense the song had caused.

“You need me to ring me up for it right now,” Moneta insisted.

While Brown was working the register, Kevin Simmons, the other barista on duty, was busy making drinks. Simmons had worked there for three months and was up for his ninety-day review the next week. While pulling shots of espresso, he noticed a man who was upset with Brown.

“Harassing is definitely the word I would use,” Simmons says. “He was verbally harassing her.”

Ten minutes after Moneta, the Duke VP, left the store, there was a call from the manager asking what had happened. Brown, the barista, explained the situation and apologized. That was on Friday. On Monday, both Brown and Simmons (who wasn’t even involved) were called into the office.

At that meeting, Amanda Wiley from Joe Van Gogh’s human resources department told them that they could no longer work at Joe Van Gogh.

“We had gotten a call from Robert Coffey of Duke saying that the VP of the university had come into the shop and that there was vulgar music playing,” Wiley said, according to the recording. “Joe Van Gogh is contracted by Duke University, so we essentially work for them. And they can shut us down at any point.”

Wiley cleared her throat. “Duke University has instructed us to terminate the employees that were working that day,” she said.

So, despite the fact that neither barista had selected the song and that they turned it off immediately and apologized, they were fired. Brown, who had been working at Joe Van Gogh for a year and a half, was especially upset that her co-worker Kevin Simmons was fired. “For [Simmons, a white man] to be fired because of this, it is not fair,” she told her boss. She added, “I feel like you guys were trying to cover it up as to make it not look discriminatory for firing a person of color.”

As for Larry Moneta (the Duke VP) he later claimed he had made a call to the director of Duke Dining but hadn’t done anything else. He blamed the firing on Joe Van Gogh. But according to the Joe Van Gogh supervisor, someone demanded that everyone there that day be fired. It’s not entirely clear who is telling the truth.

I agree this story is stupid and outrageous but I don’t necessarily agree with Conor Friedersdorf that Moneta’s initial objection was off base. Moneta walked into a public place at lunchtime where young children could conceivably be present and heard this over the stereo:

Pulled up on the side of your bitch, she wouldn’t stop looking
That bitch good as tooken, good as gone
I guarantee tonight my nigga, that bitch ain’t coming home
I got money to count, I got bitches to f–k
I got packs to flip, pistols to bust

If it were me, I’d say something to the person behind the counter. Not aggressive. Not rude. Just, ‘What’s with the music?’ If the barista was belligerent and told me I’m a prude or ‘what’s the problem?’, I’d shrug and walk out. If on the other hand they turned it off, apologized, and offered me free food, I’d say thank you and consider that the end of it.

Larry Moneta wasn’t wrong to speak up, but he should have taken yes for an answer, accepted the apology, taken his free vegan muffin, and gone on his way. No harm, no foul. The end of this story. Where this jumps the shark is when this minor incident apparently turns into a university VP harassing a barista (who wasn’t picking the songs). Then, even after she apologizes, he reports her to the people who lease this coffee shop space. Suddenly, it becomes a very big deal and an implied (if not a direct) threat: Fire everyone who was there or else.

There’s an old saying that petty tyrants are the worst. Give someone a little power and responsibility and they sometimes go crazy with it. No one should be fired over something this. Joe Van Gogh hasn’t confirmed whether or not they’ll be rehiring the two baristas, but they should. Then they could look into the Spotify playlists.

Update: Just as I finished writing this story, I came across this story:

Joe Van Gogh owner Robbie Roberts announced Friday that the chain is leaving Duke.

“Effective immediately, I have decided to cut my company’s ties with Duke University. I believe it’s the right thing to do to preserve Joe Van Gogh’s brand independence without conditions,” Roberts wrote in the statement. “I have extended jobs to our entire team at our Duke on-campus store, either at one of our off-campus locations or at our production offices. And, I have reached out to our two baristas who were provided severance so that they may either re-join Joe Van Gogh or secure employment elsewhere if they like.”

This seems like a lot of uproar over something that should have been resolved with the generous offer of a free muffin.

The post The rap music, vegan muffin fiasco at Duke University (Update: Coffee shop is leaving campus) appeared first on Hot Air.

08 May 03:58

The 25 best looks celebrities wore to the 2018 Met Gala

by Daniel Boan

Met Gala best dressed celebsJamie McCarthy and Neilson Barnard/Getty Images

With a theme like "Heavenly Bodies: Fashion and the Catholic Imagination," the 2018 Met Gala was bound to provide some extremely interesting fashion choices — and the celebrities in attendance definitely did not disappoint.

The Met Gala is often referred to as the "Super Bowl of Fashion," so the stakes are higher than ever when it comes to impressing everyone on the red carpet. With the "Sunday Best" dress code up for interpretation, some of the ball's famous attendants kept it elegant and subtle, while others took the theme to the extreme with surprisingly fashionable results.

Here are the best looks from the 2018 Met Gala.

Cardi B wore a gold dress with a voluminous skirt and accessorized with a statement headpiece.

Neilson Barnard / Staff

Her embellished dress had a dramatic train while also revealing one of her legs.



Blake Lively went for a show-stopping crimson and gold dress.

Neilson Barnard/Getty Images

The actress was one of many attendees to wear a headpiece, though hers was a more subtle tiara.



Andrew Garfield wore a red velvet smoking jacket with a white shirt, black bowtie, and black pants.

Neilson Barnard/Getty Images

He put a spin on a classic suit with a pop of color.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

See Also:

08 May 03:57

Hillary Clinton is sounding the alarm over China's efforts to covertly interfere with politics worldwide

by Tara Francis Chan

Hillary Clinton Auckland tourHannah Peters/Getty Images

  • Hillary Clinton warned Australia and New Zealand to take China's interference attempts "seriously."
  • Clinton also praised a New Zealand academic, Anne-Marie Brady, who has pioneered work on the Chinese Communist Party's secretive arm that tries to influence policies overseas.
  • Brady was targeted in a number of break-ins and threats at her office and home. Burglars stole computers, phones, and flash drives, some of which were related to her work.

 

In Auckland as part of a speaking tour, Hillary Clinton warned about China's foreign-interference campaigns and urged the countries to take the issue "seriously."See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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