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20 Nov 06:22

How Is Immigration Like Nuclear Power?, by Bryan Caplan

Nuclear power has the ability to provide cheap, renewable, safe, clean energy for all mankind.  But only 11% of global electricity comes from nuclear power.

Why is something so great so rare?

Because government strangles nuclear power with regulation.

Why do governments strangle it?

Because nuclear power is unpopular.

Why is it so unpopular?

First, innumeracy.  The gains of nuclear power vastly outweigh all the complaints put together, but the complaints are emotionally gripping.  Deaths from radiation are horrifying; vastly higher fatalities from coal are not.  Even nuclear accidents that kill zero people get worldwide media attention, fueling draconian populist regulation.

Second, spookiness.  Scientifically illiterate people can imagine endless far-fetched dangers of nuclear power.  And at risk of sounding elitist, almost everyone is scientifically illiterate.

 

[brief pause]

 

Immigration has the ability to double the wealth produced by all mankind.  But only 3% of people on Earth are migrants.

Why is something so great so rare?

Because government strangles immigration with regulation.

Why do governments strangle it?

Because immigration is unpopular.

Why is it so unpopular?

First, innumeracy.  The gains of immigration vastly outweigh all the complaints put together, but the complaints are emotionally gripping.  Deaths from immigrant crime are horrifying; vastly higher fatalities from native crime are not.  Even immigrant outrages that kill zero people get worldwide media attention, fueling draconian populist regulation.

Second, spookiness.  Economically illiterate people can imagine endless far-fetched dangers of immigration.  And at risk of sounding elitist, almost everyone is economically illiterate.

 

 

(19 COMMENTS)
09 Nov 22:50

Settlement reached in tight Arizona Senate vote count

by (The Associated Press)

PHOENIX — Arizona Republicans and Democrats agreed Friday to give rural voters an extra chance to fix problems with their ballots in the count of the state’s tight Senate race, resolving a GOP lawsuit that sought to stop urban voters from using those very same procedures.

The settlement was technically between Republicans and the state’s county recorders, but Democrats agreed to it as it was announced in a Phoenix courtroom Friday afternoon. Arizona’s 14 counties now have until Nov. 14 to address the issue.

The Republican lawsuit alleged that the state’s county recorders don’t follow a uniform standard for allowing voters to address problems with their mail-in ballots, and that Maricopa and Pima counties improperly allow the fixes for up to five days after Election Day.

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has jumped into a slight lead over Republican Martha McSally in the midst of the slow vote count.

Four local Republican parties filed the lawsuit Wednesday night challenging the state’s two biggest counties for allowing voters to help resolve problems with their mail-in ballot signatures after Election Day. If the signature on the voter registration doesn’t match that on the sealed envelope, both Maricopa and Pima County allow voters to help them fix, or “cure” it, up to five days after Election Day.

Many other counties only allow voters to cure until polls close on Election Day. Now, all will follow the standard set by Maricopa, Pima and two other rural counties that allow for post-Election Day cures.

Only a few thousand votes would be affected by the issue, but every one counts in the razor-close U.S. Senate race.

At a brief hearing Thursday, a Maricopa County official said only about 5,600 ballots are at affected in her county and the rate is similar in the 14 smaller counties. More than 2.3 million votes were cast statewide.

The political overtones of the lawsuit were unmistakable. On Thursday, Sinema jumped into a minuscule lead of about 9,000 out of 1.9 million votes counted after trailing since Tuesday. Her lead came from the two counties singled out by Republicans in their lawsuit, Maricopa and Pima Counties.

On Friday, Republicans escalated their attacks on Democrats, claiming they were trying to disenfranchise rural voters -- even though Democrats had little do with how the rural counties chose to count ballots. Those counties are predominantly run by Republicans. Democrats, in turn, said the GOP was trying to nullify cast ballots.

The race remained too close to call Friday with more than 400,000 ballots still uncounted. Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes said counting may continue until Nov. 15. “We know there’s urgency out there, but we want to get it right, not quick,” he said.

Arizona is notoriously slow at tallying ballots even though about 75 percent of votes are cast by mail. Each of those ballots must go through a laborious verification process.


Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine

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09 Nov 22:48

Judge rules election officials in Broward violated state law, gives them 7 pm deadline

by John Sexton

A judge has ruled that Broward County election officials violated Florida law by failing to report how many outstanding ballots they have in their possession. From the Miami Herald:

A Broward County judge ordered the county’s elections chief to turn over to Gov. Rick Scott’s campaign for the U.S. Senate an accounting of how many ballots were cast in the county, broken down by category, by 7 p.m. Friday.

Circuit Judge Carol-Lisa Phillips also held that Brenda Snipes, Broward’s supervisor of elections, was in violation of Florida public records laws for not turning the records requested by Scott’s campaign. She ordered Snipes to turn over the number of all ballots cast in the midterm election, including absentee, early voting and those cast on Election Day.

This is the result of a lawsuit filed Thursday by Rick Scott and the NRSC against Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes which said in part:

Voting in the 2018 General Election concluded November 6, 2018. Two days after voting has concluded, the Supervisor Of Elections is unwilling to disclose records revealing how many electors voted, how many ballots have been canvassed, and how many ballots remain to be canvassed. The lack of transparency raises substantial concerns about the validity of the election process.

This is an issue that Sen. Marco Rubio has been raising the alarm about on Twitter since Thursday morning.

For demanding that Broward adhere to state law, Rubio was accused of to trying to stop some votes from being counted.

This morning he kept going:

Finally, this afternoon, a short time before the judge’s ruling, Rubio posted another update thread:

Now a judge has agreed that Broward has violated the law and given them a few hours to rectify this, exactly as Rubio, Rick Scott, and the NRSC claimed. Maybe the media will take more interest in this dubious behavior by Broward County than they have so far?

The post Judge rules election officials in Broward violated state law, gives them 7 pm deadline appeared first on Hot Air.

03 Nov 06:01

Smell markets in everything

by Tyler Cowen
Jack

What?

Previously, she has made dairy products from the perspiration of Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg.

Here is the full article.  And:

In one exhibition, [Sissel] Tolaas captured the armpit sweat of severely anxious men from Greenland to China, recreated their individual smells and painted them onto the walls of the installation. (“There was a composite odor of anxiety that just infused the whole room, and it was really unhinging,” said Howes, who saw it in Basel, Switzerland). After the smell of fear, Tolaas recreated the smell of violence from cage fighters in East London. She has recreated the scents of Berlin’s famed Berghain nightclub, New York’s Central Park in October, World War I, communism and the ocean. Her shows are immersive and emotional in a distracted world. They aim to grip audiences right by the lizard brain.

And:

Tolaas also invented 1,500 “smell memory kits” — abstract odors that have never been smelled before. When you want to remember an event, you open the amulet and inhale, sealing the moment in your emotional core. For the London Olympics, she made a Limburger cheese sourced from David Beckham’s sweaty socks, which was served to VIPs.

File under “Department of Why Not?”

The post Smell markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

02 Nov 21:53

True Detective seems ready to return to top form in new S3 trailer

by Jennifer Ouellette
Jack

Could be interesting. I did like the first season. Didn't bother watching the second.

Detective Wayne Hays (Mahershala Ali) investigates a missing persons case while haunted by his past.

Enlarge / Detective Wayne Hays (Mahershala Ali) investigates a missing persons case while haunted by his past. (credit: YouTube/HBO)

We'd almost forgotten about HBO's uneven crime anthology series True Detective. It had a fantastic first season, only to hemorrhage viewers with the abysmally dreary, disappointing second season. But now the series is coming back for season 3, and if the new trailer is any indication, it's a welcome return to form.

The brainchild of former lit professor and novelist Nic Pizzolatto, True Detective has always fostered a very literary, philosophical tone, and, shall we say, unhurried pacing. When it works, it's brilliant. Season 1 was set in the Louisiana Bayou, as Detective Rustin "Rust" Cohle (Matthew McConaughey) and his partner Detective Martin "Marty" Hart (Woody Harrelson) tracked down a twisted serial killer with a fondness for leaving weird twig sculptures in the woods.

The spooky setting and strong chemistry between the lead actors pretty much ensured its success with viewers and critics alike. It was well-plotted to reel the viewer in, and the dialogue between McConaughey and Harrelson yielded some much-needed comic relief. (Only McConaughey could pull off those long, drawling abstract ruminations without everyone wanting to strangle him, his partner included.)

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02 Nov 21:36

California's Insurance Commissioner Race: The Most Important Election You've Never Heard About

by Steven Greenhut
Jack

Interesting to me since I sell insurance. I hadn't realized California has never elected an unaffiliated candidate to statewide office.

Some of the most heated races in the November election are for offices that most Californians know little about. Ask an average voter about the Orwellian-sounding Bureau of Equalization (BOE), and they'll look at you with an eyes-glazed-over stare reminiscent of a cat's gaze after you ask whether it prefers tuna or turkey giblets. Likewise, how many voters can tell you why the race for insurance commissioner is so important?

The BOE races don't really matter. The tax board used to be fairly important, but the Legislature recently stripped it of most of its powers. Those elections mainly are about who gets a sinecure while they contemplate other offices. But the election of insurance "czar," as some rightly call it given the vast powers held by the head honcho at the Department of Insurance, holds real significance given its impact on insurance markets and the cost of your premiums.

The choice of commissioner is fascinating. Both candidates are highly accomplished, which offers a clue that this is not a placeholder job. They have different philosophies and personalities. Democrat Ricardo Lara of Bell Gardens is one of the Senate's most liberal members—an advocate for single-payer health insurance and one of the more entertaining personalities in the Capitol. Steve Poizner has a low-key demeanor. He was a Bay Area tech entrepreneur and was a moderate Republican insurance commissioner from 2007-2011. He is running this year with "No Party Preference."

The horse-race aspect is getting the most attention. Most polls show Poizner with a decent lead, although there's a sizable chunk of undecideds given the lack of overall attention paid to this office. If Poizner wins, he will be the first non-party-affiliated candidate elected to statewide office in California's history. "I really, really want to stay out of partisanship," he told CALmatters. "If I can win, that will open the door to lots of other people who will run for office."

Supporters of the top-two primary system see his possible success as a vindication of their reform, which elevates the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to the general election. Their goal is to break the party stranglehold. That makes for a headline-grabbing political-reform story, but my interest centers on the importance of the office itself. Bottom line: California regulates insurance in such a ham-fisted way that it makes it tough for insurers to offer creative new products that meet market needs and to offer the most-competitive pricing to consumers.

The regulatory heavy approach, whereby the commissioner has to approve all proposed rate changes, sometimes leads insurance commissioners into highly political forays. For instance, outgoing commissioner Dave Jones used his power to try to prod insurance companies to divest from investments in coal-based energy, which was a vast stretch of the department's power to meddle in private investments. Jones also was viewed by critics as being too close to trial attorneys, who receive fees from the rate-approval ("intervenor") system.

This convoluted system goes back to 1988, when voters approved Proposition 103. As the Department of Insurance explains, the initiative capped rates and "requires the 'prior approval' of California's Department of Insurance before insurance companies can implement property and casualty insurance rates. Prior to Proposition 103, automobile, property and casualty insurance rates were set by insurance companies without approval by the insurance commissioner."

In our market economy, companies offer products at different prices and the buyer chooses. Prices are kept in line thanks to competition. There's a legitimate role for regulation, mainly to make sure the businesses live up to their promises. That traditionally is the main role of state insurance commissions. They need to assure that insurance companies have the financial resources to pay out the coverages in the event of disaster. But voters instead implemented a government-controlled rate system.

Suffice it to say, there are myriad and vital insurance issues hobbled by the voter-imposed model. For instance, the commission needs to modernize its regulatory approach so that companies can offer new lines of insurance that help businesses thrive. They need to allow a more competitive market, which is what ultimately keeps prices low and coverages high. They need to deal with our earthquake-insurance mess and wrestle with issues related to wildfires.

The candidates' ballot statements offer insight into their approaches. Poizner points to the "urgent issues" in the state's insurance markets. He strikes an activist pose, by discussing efforts he took in his past term to protect the public from being "shortchanged" by insurers. Lara's statement explains his approach with simplicity: The job "is really about two things—making sure that insurance is priced fairly and that if we ever need to use it, our claim will be handled fairly."

I have no voting advice to offer here, but would urge Californians to spend some time thinking about this rarely-thought-about race and department. Surprisingly, it's one of the more important races that you'll decide in November.

This column was first published by the Orange County Register.

Steven Greenhut is Western region director for the R Street Institute. He was a Register editorial writer from 1998-2009. Write to him at sgreenhut@rstreet.org.

02 Nov 20:16

Why lies matter

by ssumner

After the Berlin Wall came down, there was a brief period of liberalism in Eastern Europe:

The contemporary left disdains the open society as a neo-liberal capitalist dream; the right fears its skepticism toward tradition. But for the last five decades, most of America and Europe’s prosperity and peace have been based on an open society consensus, which for a brief moment after the end of the Cold War, it looked like Western thinkers like Soros had succeeded in importing to Eastern Europe. Markets opened to foreign investors. In 1991, Soros founded the Central European University with campuses in Prague, Warsaw and Budapest, a US-funded education center committed to critical thought and the study of democracy. Ironically, given recent developments, the CEU’s headquarters moved from Prague to Budapest when the Hungarian government of the time appeared more welcoming than the Czech.

Today it’s getting much darker in Eastern Europe:

That was then. The current Hungarian government, as Guy Verhofstadt wrote earlier this month, is probably the most illiberal and authoritarian in Europe, shutting down newspaperscorruptly capturing major facilities like water and energy, wrenching control of cultural and educational centers. Just like d’Souza, Barr and Trump Jr., the Hungarian government attacks Muslim migrants and Soros. During last spring’s election, when I was last in Hungary, you couldn’t turn without spotting the ruling Fidesz party advertisements, which featured crude photoshopped images of Soros personally cutting open the Hungarian border fences designed to keep out Muslim migrants. Like most authoritarian regimes, the Hungarian government inspires loyalty by stoking the fires of ethnic supremacy. Hungary, which spent centuries fighting the Ottoman Turks, has seen itself as Europe’s border with Islam since long before the current migrant crisis. The American alt-right laps up this talk of a clash of civilizations.

I know that some people think that it doesn’t matter if people lie about George Soros, if the President’s son calls him a Nazi collaborator.  All that matters (in their view) is corporate tax cuts.  In the short run it might seem like that is true, but in the long run you might say that honesty is all that matters.  A society built on lies will inevitably abandon liberalism.

Lies are a way of dehumanizing individuals like George Soros.  Once they are dehumanized, it’s much easier for troubled people to justify violence against them, or indeed against entire ethnic groups.  Hitler dehumanized the Jews through lies, and Mao dehumanized the rich through lies.  And that’s why for me there is only one overriding issue in the midterm elections.  Lies.  Yes, Hungary and Poland are still a long way from the 1930s, and America is further still, but I’d rather not experiment with how far this demagoguery can be pushed before causing major harm.  The risks are too great.

29 Oct 07:33

The culture and polity that is Seattle, Washington

by Tyler Cowen
Jack

Interesting report

Washington is at the top of “the terrible 10” states with the most regressive state and local tax systems, according to a report released this month by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

“These states ask far more of their lower- and middle-income residents than of their wealthiest taxpayers,” according to the institute.

This isn’t new news. My colleague Gene Balk wrote about the subject in April, highlighting a report from the Seattle-based Economic Opportunity Institute. That report found Washington taxation hardest on the poor, with Seattle the worst offender.

That is from Jon Talton, via Mike Rosenberg.

The post The culture and polity that is Seattle, Washington appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

29 Oct 07:33

Conservatives Have Lost the Supreme-Court Excuse for Supporting Trump

by Conor Friedersdorf

The Supreme Court is the issue that many conservatives used to rationalize voting for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

The talk-radio host Hugh Hewitt is the quintessential example. He doesn’t approve of naked greed, bullying, trade wars, serial adultery, demeaning spats with Gold Star parents, insulting Mexican American jurists, or bragging about grabbing women by their genitals without their consent.

Still, he voted Trump in 2016.

“It’s the Supreme Court, Stupid,” declared the headline on the endorsement column that he wrote for the Washington Examiner. (That was published before the Access Hollywood tape, but after Trump’s lifetime of publicly documented cruelty and depravity.) “If Hillary Clinton wins, the Left gavels in a solid, lasting, almost certainly permanent majority on the Supreme Court,” he wrote. “I know what a very liberal SCOTUS means: conservatism is done. It cannot survive a strong-willed liberal majority on the Supreme Court. Every issue, EVERY issue, will end up there, and the legislatures’ judgments will matter not a bit.”

[Read: Why the Supreme Court matters more to Republicans than Trump]

Now he is declaring victory. In Monday’s Washington Post, Hewitt wrote, “The confirmation of Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh brings to the Supreme Court a fifth conservative, and the reconfigured court is about to raise the curtain on a new age. The ‘30 years war’ for the court, begun with the rejection of Robert H. Bork’s nomination, has been won.”

He credited the president:

The unlikeliest of people to work a revolution of modesty is President Trump, but that is what he has done. The battle to contain the court has been won. And a court modest about everything but the protection of individual liberties is and will remain Trump’s greatest achievement.

Given all of that, I have a question for Hewitt: If winning the decisive battle for the Supreme Court was the reason you held your nose and voted for Trump, if the 30-years war has now been won, and if Trump will not achieve anything greater going forward, will you start advocating for a less depraved alternative to lead the Republican Party in 2020, and pledge to withhold your vote if the GOP renominates Trump?

By your logic, the raison d’être for your support has disappeared. Trump’s marginal utility to conservatives is permanently diminished. The most powerful moral defense of voting for him despite his corrosive attributes no longer applies.

[Adam Serwer: The Supreme Court is headed back to the 19th century ]

Shouldn’t this change everything for you? After all, it isn’t as though Trump is no longer an unapologetic bully, a serial liar, and a bad example to children. It isn’t as though the results of Robert Mueller’s investigation are going to vindicate Trump’s judgments about who to hire. It isn’t as though Trump is going to halt his extravagant praise of murderous autocrats, or his demagogic rallies where he induces attendees to indulge their most base instincts and then feeds off the ugly energy.

And you’ve obviously noticed the deliberate ways that he inflames ethnic tensions and tears the country apart to benefit himself politically.

In 2016, you were correct to feel, at the very least, so painfully conflicted by Trump’s candidacy as to publicly reverse course about your support several times. Everything that made you uncomfortable is still true, and the biggest factor that caused you to look past that discomfort is gone.  

[Peter Beinart: The fear driving conservative support for Kavanaugh]

So my message to Hewitt and those who agreed with him in 2016 is this: Be among the first Republican partisans to demand that the GOP do much better in 2020, even if that stand is a lonely one. Doing so isn’t just the moral course—it is one that won’t cost control of the Supreme Court.

You need never vote for that nasty, disreputable man again.

27 Oct 20:51

Interview with Chad Syverson

by Tyler Cowen

Interesting and substantive throughout, here is one bit:

Syverson: In general, we think companies that do a better job of meeting the needs of their consumers at a low price are going to gain market share, and those that don’t, shrink and eventually go out of business. The null hypothesis seems to be that health care is so hopelessly messed up that there is virtually no responsiveness of demand to quality, however you would like to measure it. The claim is that people don’t observe quality very well — and even if they do, they might not trade off quality and price like we think people do with consumer products, because there is often a third-party payer, so people don’t care about price. Also, there is a lot of government intervention in the health care market, and governments can have priorities that aren’t necessarily about moving market activity in an efficient direction.

Amitabh Chandra, Amy Finkelstein, Adam Sacarny, and I looked at whether demand responds to performance differences using Medicare dataOffsite. We looked at a number of different ailments, including heart attacks, congestive heart failure, pneumonia, and hip and knee replacements. In every case, you see two patterns. One is that hospitals that are better at treating those ailments treat more patients with those ailments. Now, the causation can go either way with that. However, we also see that being good at treating an ailment today makes the hospital big tomorrow.

Second, responsiveness to quality is larger in instances where patients have more scope for choice. When you’re admitted through the emergency department, there’s still a positive correlation between performance and demand, but it’s even stronger when you’re not admitted through the emergency department — in other words, when you had a greater ability to choose. Half of the people on Medicare in our data do not go to the hospital nearest to where they live when they are having a heart attack. They go to one farther away, and systematically the one they go to is better at treating heart attacks than the one nearer to their house.

What we don’t know is the mechanism that drives that response. We don’t know whether the patients choose a hospital because they have previously heard something from their doctor, or the ambulance drivers are making the choice, or the patient’s family tells the ambulance driv­ers where to go. Probably all of those things are important.

It’s heartening that the market seems to be respon­sive to performance differences. But, in addition, these performance differences are coordinated with produc­tivity — not just outcomes but outcomes per unit input. The reallocation of demand across hospitals is making them more efficient overall. It turns out that’s kind of by chance. Patients don’t go to hospitals that get the same survival rate with fewer inputs. They’re not going for productivity per se; they’re going for performance. But performance is correlated with productivity.

All of this is not to say that the health care market is fine and we have nothing to worry about. It just says that the mechanisms here aren’t fundamentally different than they are in other markets that we think “work better.”

Here is the full interview, via Patrick Collison.

The post Interview with Chad Syverson appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

27 Oct 20:29

Qualcomm says Apple owes $7 billion in device royalty payments

by Jon Fingas
If Qualcomm ever prevails in its patent dispute with Apple, it could have ample compensation coming its way. The chip designer told a San Diego federal court on October 26th that Apple was allegedly $7 billion behind in device royalty payments -- no...
20 Oct 20:05

Iceland book fact of the day

by Tyler Cowen

Icelanders bought 47% fewer books in 2017 than they did in 2010, a very sharp decrease in a matter of only six years. In a recent poll in Iceland, 13.5% of those who responded had not read a single book in 2017, compared to 7% in 2010.

Iceland has a wonderful tradition of giving books as Christmas presents, with people reading into the night on Christmas Eve. However, even this may be under threat: in 2005, an Icelander received an average of 1.4 books as gifts at Christmas; this number is now 1.1, with 42% of Icelanders not receiving a single book for Christmas according to the most recent poll…

Recent research shows an alarming rise in students under 15 struggling to read their own language. And they are picking up English at a much faster pace than before – it is not strange to hear them speaking it in the playground.

Here is the full story.

The post Iceland book fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

20 Oct 02:03

Raising the status of Chow Yun Fat

by Tyler Cowen
Jack

I would have been way off on guessing his net worth.

He is one of my favorite actors, so I was pleased to read this:

Chow Yun Fat plans to give his entire net worth of $714m to charity.

As reported by Jayne Stars, Hong Kong movie legend Chow Yun Fat will give his entire net worth of $5.6 billion HKD ($714m USD) to charity.

Despite his gargantuan wealth, Fat remains rather frugal. Only spending $800 HKD ($1o2 USD) per month, Fat is often seen taking public transport and doing charity work.

He used his first Nokia phone for over 17 years, only switching to a smartphone two years ago. Fat is known for shopping at discount stores. “I don’t wear clothes for other people. As long as I think it’s comfortable, then it’s good enough for me,” he said.

Fat often spends his free time hiking and jogging, instead of splashing out.

Here is the full story, via the excellent Benjamin Copan.  And if you don’t know his performances in The Killer, a John Woo film, now is the time to check it out.

The post Raising the status of Chow Yun Fat appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

19 Oct 23:56

Edible cotton now exists — and it could have a big effect on world hunger

by Rachel Sugar
The taste has been described as “not at all unpleasant.”

Apparently, it tastes like hummus.

Cotton has many purposes. It is good for T-shirts. It is good for Q-tips. But, with the exception of one catastrophic fad diet, it has not been good for eating. Now that may be changing: On Tuesday, the US Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service gave researchers at Texas A&M their stamp of approval for a new type of cotton plant that’s been genetically engineered to make the seeds safe for human consumption, Bloomberg reports.

You have probably not been dying to eat cottonseed. But this is potentially a big deal: Cottonseed is high in protein, and there is a lot of cotton in the world: According to the San Antonio Express-News, it’s grown by “nearly 20 million farmers in 80 countries, many with high rates of malnutrition.”

And so cottonseed could be a solution — if only people could eat it. But it’s poisonous to many animals, including people, due to a toxin called gossypol, which, New Scientist explained, “lowers blood potassium to dangerous levels, resulting in fatigue and even paralysis.” (It is, however, digestible by cows.)

For 23 years, Keerti Rathore, a professor at Texas A&M and lead researcher on the project, has been working to engineer a solution to the issue. “You could meet the basic protein requirements of hundreds of millions of people” with the seeds, he told the San Antonio Express-News, which pointed out that “all the chicken eggs produced in the world right now (1.4 trillion) couldn’t meet the protein in what’s being produced in cottonseed.”

The quest to make cottonseed edible

For every pound of cotton fiber, a cotton plant produces 1.6 pounds of seeds. That’s 50 million tons of cottonseed annually, the International Cotton Advisory Committee reports.

Right now, about 5 percent of those seeds get planted, according to the National Cotton Council of America, and the rest is used, in various forms, for livestock feed, fertilizer, and cottonseed oil, which people can and do consume. But because of the gossypol, cottonseed itself hasn’t been a source of human food.

For decades, scientists have been trying to change that. In the 1950s, the discovery of a gossypol-free cotton on the Hopi Indian reservation in Arizona seemed like it might offer an edible solution. But without gossypol, the plants were “eaten alive in the fields,” the San Antonio Express-News says, and so weren’t commercially viable. Attempts to breed gossypol-free cotton plants in the ’60s and ’70s ran into the same problem: Without gossypol, insects ate them.

“It was something that a lot of people had been trying to do,” Rathore told the paper. “We did have competition from Australia and China.” But he and his team are the first to engineer a workaround.

The difference is that the new cotton plant does have gossypol — but not in the seeds

The big innovation here is that Rathore’s transgenic cotton plant isn’t gossypol-free. By inserting “a new piece of DNA” into the plant, NPR explained, the team was able to keep the seeds from producing gossypol, while maintaining normal levels in the rest of the plant.

“More than half a billion people across the world may have access to a new form a protein,” Texas A&M University Chancellor John Sharp said in a release announcing the USDA approval.

Unfortunately — or fortunately? — edible cottonseed won’t be anything like cotton candy. “It’ll taste like hummus,” Rathore told Bloomberg. “It’s not at all unpleasant.”

“Not at all unpleasant” is not necessarily a ringing endorsement, although it is worth remembering here that hummus is very good. Kater Hake, the president of Cotton Inc., which provided funding for the project, offered a list of other possible forms cottonseed might someday take: milks, nut butters, and “chopped-nut substitutes.” The protein could also be extracted and used in energy bars or flours, to make protein-enhanced breads.

Rathore’s immediate goal, he told NPR, is to see the plant growing in places like India, where he grew up. “A lot of these countries that do suffer from malnutrition are also cotton producers,” he said. “So I think that those countries may benefit much more from this technology.”

There are still a lot of steps before any of this actually happens

The USDA approval means anybody in the US can theoretically grow the modified plants. But before they can be sold as “food or feed,” NPR explained, the seeds need approval from the Food and Drug Administration. That’s expected to happen in “the next few months,” per the San Antonio Express-News.

Even once that happens, it’s still going to be a while before anyone, anywhere, is eating any cottonseed hummus. “It will take a couple of years before there’s enough seed for a commercial-scale run at a cottonseed oil mill,” the paper said, “and an agreement will have to be reached with a seed company willing to market the trait for cotton farmers worldwide.” Right now, the university is in talks with potential distributors.

How will this all play out in reality? That remains to be seen. But it’s good to see Big Cotton — an industry with a troubled past and present — potentially involved in some humanitarian good.

19 Oct 19:46

Two big egos

by ssumner

Imagine a leader with an enormous ego and a devoted fan club, who frequently behaves in a reckless and irresponsible fashion.  He sends out tweets full of bizarre and irresponsible attacks on other people, and also misrepresents important financial information, which misleads various stakeholders.

What should we do with a leader like this?

I guess the answer depends on where they work.  If they work in the private sector, then they need to be punished for their bad behavior, perhaps by the SEC.  If they work in the executive branch . . . well, you can guess.

PS.  Make that three big egos—look who The Economist thinks has a good chance to become the next British Prime Minister:

Mrs May might well win such a vote, if only because Mr Johnson is so unpopular among Tory MPs. His problem is not just that the majority of Tory MPs voted “remain” in the referendum, and hate him as leader of the Brexiteers. MPs of all political persuasions regard him as a cad. One senior Tory says that “it’s 100% inconceivable that he’ll become leader of the Conservative Party…He’s a media clown, not a serious politician.” “He’s a shit who doesn’t give a shit about anything but himself,” says another. The list of charges against him is long: he doesn’t believe in anything but his own advancement; he doesn’t lift a finger to help his colleagues; he was a disaster as foreign secretary.

He has one big thing going for him, in the eyes of most Tory MPs: his performance at the polls. When he won two terms as mayor of Labour-leaning London he was praised for possessing the “Heineken factor”—the ability to reach parts of the country that other Tories couldn’t reach. . . .

But should Mrs May lose a confidence vote, Mr Johnson has a good chance. The two further hurdles are probably superable. He has to get onto a shortlist of two MPs that the parliamentary party sends to the party’s 124,000 members, and then he has to win the membership’s support.

On the first, the Brexiteers, who include not just the ERG but other eurosceptics, have enough votes to get one of their own onto the final shortlist, and are likely to coalesce behind Mr Johnson. Jacob Rees-Mogg, their leader, has already said that he thinks that Mr Johnson would make an excellent prime minister.

On the second, Tory party members like Mr Johnson more than Tory MPs do—and are getting keener with every suicide-vest jibe.

Could a conservative politicians who is hated by his elite of own party (but not the voters), who acts like a buffoon, and who likes to make outrageous attacks on a top female politician, actually become the leader of the UK?  Stranger things have happened.  Eventually every country in the world will elect a buffoonish nationalistic leader.  And then the world can pick up where it left off in the 1930s, before that unfortunate detour into the UN, EU, IMF, WTO, World Bank, NATO, NAFTA and all those other institutions that ruined everything accomplished during 1914-45, the golden age of nationalism.

PPS.  Speaking of big egos, a victim of the MeToo movement has just died:

  • Dennis Hof, the notorious pimp and Republican candidate for Nevada’s state assembly, died hours after a combination 72nd birthday party/campaign rally attended by GOP tax fighter Grover Norquist, recent Trump pardon recipient Sheriff Joe Arpaio and porn movie legend Ron Jeremy.
  • Hof died at the Love Ranch, one of his legal Nevada brothels, according to the Reno Gazette Journal. Another brothel of his, the Moonlite Bunny Ranch, was made famous by the HBO show “Cathouse.”
  • Multiple former prostitutes had accused him of sexual assault, but prosecutors did not file charges against Hof, who denied the claims.

As you’d expect, he was highly popular with evangelical voters.

18 Oct 06:37

Dad dating sim 'Dream Daddy' arrives on PS4 October 30th

by Kris Holt
Jack

I hadn't heard of this. One of the best games of 2017?

If you slept on Dream Daddy, one of Engadget's best games of 2017, you'll soon have another way to play the charming dating sim as the "Dadrector's Cut" is headed to PS4. You'll be able to try it on console for the first time October 30th.
14 Oct 15:09

Brazil fact of the day

by Tyler Cowen

Just 8 percent of Brazilians told the Pew Research Center in 2017 that representative democracy is a “very good” form of government – the lowest of all 38 countries surveyed.

Most of the article is about what we can expect from Jair Bolsonaro, sometimes called “the Brazilian Trump,” who is very likely to be Brazil’s next president, recommended and interesting throughout.

The post Brazil fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

10 Oct 17:26

My Conversation with Paul Krugman

by Tyler Cowen
Jack

I might have to check out the podcast.

Here is the audio and transcript, here is part of the summary:

Tyler sat down with Krugman at his office in New York to discuss what’s grabbing him at the moment, including antitrust, Supreme Court term limits, the best ways to fight inequality, why he’s a YIMBY, inflation targets, congestion taxes, trade (both global and interstellar), his favorite living science fiction writer, immigration policy, how to write well for a smart audience, new directions for economic research, and more.

Here is one excerpt:

COWEN: In your view, how well run is New York City as an entity?

KRUGMAN: Not very. Compared to what? Actually, I like de Blasio. I actually think he’s done some really good things. What he’s done on education, and even on affordable housing, is actually quite substantial. But the city is so big and the problems are so large that people may not get it.

I will say, it is crazy that you have a city that is so dependent on public transportation, and yet the public transportation is not actually under the city’s control and has clearly been massively neglected. I don’t suffer the full woes of the subway, but I suffer some of them, even myself.

The city could be run better than it is, but it’s certainly not among the worst-managed political entities in the United States, let alone in the world.

And:

COWEN: Will there ever be interstellar trade in intellectual property? You send your technology to a planet far away. It arrives much later, of course. Or you trade Beethoven to the aliens in return for a transporter beam? Can this work? You’ve written a paper that seems to indicate it can work.

KRUGMAN: I wrote a paper on the theory of interstellar trade when I was an unhappy assistant professor. Are there any happy assistant professors? [laughs] I was just blowing off steam. But it’s an interesting question.

COWEN: It could become your most important paper, right? [laughs]

KRUGMAN: We could imagine that there would be some way. We’d have to find somebody to trade with, although it’s the kind of thing — if you try to imagine interstellar trade for real in intellectual property — it’s probably the kind of thing that would be more like government-to-government exchanges.

It sounds like it would be really, really hard, although some science fiction writers are imagining that something like Bitcoin would make it possible to do these long-range . . . I don’t think something like Bitcoin is even going to work here.

Krugman also gives his opinions on Star Wars and Star Trek and Big Tech and many other matters.  Interesting throughout…

The post My Conversation with Paul Krugman appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

10 Oct 17:23

Norway's New Underwater Restaurant Is Truly Breathtaking

by Jordan Bishop, Contributor
Under, poised to become Europe’s first underwater restaurant, has officially opened online reservations for dates beginning April 2019. Diners eager to be some of the first to experience its breathtaking sea views will have to move quickly, though, as several available dates already have waitlists.
10 Oct 17:21

Kanye West's Trump Support--And Political Ambitions--Explained By T.I.

by Zack O'Malley Greenburg, Forbes Staff
Jack

President West 2024? Can't wait til the Kardashians are in the White House :P

West, an ardent opponent of previous Republican administrations, has turned into one of Trump’s most vocal supporters. One person puzzlingly well-equipped to make sense of it all: fellow rap star and veteran hip-hop cash king Clifford “T.I.” Harris.
10 Oct 17:15

DOJ Clears CVS-Aetna Deal Once Medicare Drug Plans Are Unloaded

by Bruce Japsen, Contributor
Jack

Not too surprising, although their combined market share still would have been less than UnitedHealth.

The U.S. Justice Department agreed to allow CVS Health's acquisition of health insurance giant Aetna once Aetna's Medicare Part D prescription drug plan business for individuals is divested.
06 Oct 23:57

Banksy is the Real Deal

by Alex Tabarrok
Jack

Lol

Hyperallergic: A Banksy artwork “self-destructed” at a Friday night Sotheby’s auction in London.

“Girl with a Balloon” (2006) was the final lot of the evening sale at Sotheby’s and ended things off with an impressive final price of £953,829…

Robert Casterline of Casterline Goodman gallery was in attendance and told Hyperallergic what happened next. He explained there was “complete confusion” and an “alarm inside the frame started going off as the gavel went down.”

“[It] sold for over a million dollars and as we sat there…the painting started moving,” he said, and added that the painting’s frame, also made by Banksy, acted as a shredder and started to cut the canvas into strips. “[It was] all out confusion then complete excitement,” he explained.

Anny Shaw of the Art Newspaper spoke to Alex Branczik, the auction house’s head of contemporary art for Europe,  who seemed as surprised as anyone.

Banksy is a genius.

The post Banksy is the Real Deal appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

06 Oct 21:16

Partisan hatred, a short history thereof

by Tyler Cowen
06 Oct 19:09

She-Ra shines in the first trailer for Netflix's '80s reboot

by Saqib Shah
Netflix already rebooted one iconic '80s cartoon in Voltron, now it's trying its hand at another with the upcoming release of She-Ra and The Princesses of Power. (That's He-Man's twin sister for those too young to remember Masters of the Universe or...
06 Oct 19:07

AMD's 12- and 24-core Threadripper 2 CPUs arrive October 29th

by Jon Fingas
You're in luck if you were enticed by AMD's second-generation Threadripper CPUs but felt that going all-out on the 32-core model was a little too over-the-top. The chip designer has announced that the 12-core Threadripper 2920X and 24-core 2970WX wi...
05 Oct 22:00

Consumer Reports agrees with Ars: GM Super Cruise beats Tesla Autopilot

by Jonathan M. Gitlin

Video shot and edited by Jennifer Hahn. (video link)

Back in February, I got very excited about the Cadillac CT6 sedan. It didn't handle better than its competitors. It wasn't faster or better put-together. But it did come with Super Cruise: a cutting-edge semi-autonomous driving assist that combines HD mapping and a proper driver monitoring system. Super Cruise is geofenced, so it only works on divided lane highways—and only when it knows you're looking at the road ahead, thanks to that driver monitoring system. That made it the best such system on the market—yes, even better than Tesla's Autopilot—and it seems Consumer Reports agrees. On Thursday it published its first-ever ranking of semi-automated driving systems, putting Super Cruise in at the top.

The proliferation of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) across the auto industry has been quite a thing to watch. Some features are there for driver convenience, like adaptive cruise control and lane keeping. Others—collision warning or emergency braking for example—are more consciously safety features. But the rollout can also be a bit bewildering, particularly when it comes to relative performance. The problem is that comparative testing is easier said than done, at least without the right resources.

Read 6 remaining paragraphs | Comments

05 Oct 21:29

LG’s Watch W7 looks like the dumbest smartwatch of the year

by Ron Amadeo
Jack

Lol. And it costs more than Apple?

Sascha Segan

Android smartwatches may be about as dead of a form factor as Android tablets, but that isn't stopping OEMs from continuing to pump out these little packages of wrist-mounted sadness. The latest is LG's "hybrid" smartwatch, the Watch W7, which one-ups the usual Wear OS hardware package by slapping physical, analog watch hands on top of the display.

The watch hands look great in LG's press renders, which only ever show the watch face, but if you try to use any of the "smart" capabilities of your smartwatch, you'll quickly realize how bad of an idea this is. The physical watch hands constantly obscure the display, making it difficult to see the text and buttons on your smartwatch. To make matters worse, the watch hands need to connect to the requisite gearing in the body of the watch, so there's also a sizable hole in the center of your tiny 1.2-inch display. To make matters even more worse, the layout has the display, then the watch hands, then the glass cover, so there's a large air gap between the display and the display cover. As we learned in early smartphone designs, not bonding the display to the cover negatively affects display brightness and contrast.

Read 3 remaining paragraphs | Comments

03 Oct 18:35

One remaining man of principle

by ssumner

It’s hard not to be dismayed went you look at what’s happened to society.  We now live in a country where almost everyone, including those in the elite media, has a view of reality that is completely shaped by their politics.  Thus whether people believe decades-old accusations of sexual assault depends almost entirely on the relationship between the political party of the observer and the political party of the accused.  There are days when I wonder if we wouldn’t all be better off if a giant asteroid hit Earth and put us out of our hypocrisy, er, misery.

But then I recall that there is one moral giant with a long and consistent record on sexual assault, regardless of the politics of the accused.  I speak, of course, of Donald Trump:

Days after President Clinton admitted to having an inappropriate relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky, Trump said Clinton was a “victim” and critiqued the physical appearances of various women with whom Clinton had been accused of having extramarital relations at different times.

“It’s like it’s from hell, it’s a terrible group of people,” Trump said in an interview with FOX News’ Neil Cavuto on Aug. 19, 1998. . . .

“I don’t know if that’s a good thing in terms of what Starr has done or a terrible thing, I think it’s a terrible thing, actually,” Trump added, presumably referring to the former Whitewater independent counsel who expanded his investigation into the Lewinsky affair.

As far as his personal opinion of Clinton, Trump gave Clinton a strong rating.

My only quibble is that when Trump discussed Starr’s persecution of Clinton, he left out his sidekick, Brett Kavanaugh.  Today, Trump continues to relentlessly defend any and all men accused of sexual misconduct; Rob Porter, Roger Ailes, Roy Moore, Bill O’Reilly and one other name I can’t recall.

Unlike 99% of Americans, he doesn’t let politics affect his moral compass, which never deviates from his core beliefs:

Trump: And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.

Bush: Whatever you want.

Trump: Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything.

But Trump doesn’t stop there, he also understands the need for America’s President to mock and shame women who come forth with accusations of sexual abuse:

Playing to the crowd of thousands gathered to cheer him on, the president pretended to be Dr. Blasey testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee last Thursday. “Thirty-six years ago this happened. I had one beer, right? I had one beer,” said Mr. Trump, channeling his version of Dr. Blasey. He then imitated one of her questioners, followed by her responses about what she could not recall about the alleged attack.

“How did you get home? I don’t remember. How’d you get home? I don’t remember. Where was the place? I don’t remember. How many years ago was it? I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know,” Mr. Trump said, as the crowd applauded. “I don’t know — but I had one beer. That’s the only thing I remember.”

Trump and his crowd of supporters must have had so much fun!  But there’s also a serious side to Trump; he understands the suffering endured by so many  . . .  er, people:

Asked if he had a message to men, the president said: “Well, I say that it’s a very scary time for young men in America when you can be guilty of something that you may not be guilty of. This is a very, very — this is a very difficult time.” . . .

Asked if he had a message for young women, he said, “Women are doing great.”

(BTW, I want to reassure readers that I’m doing OK, despite being male.)

Trump has also reached out to foreign leaders who share his moral principles, like Philippine President Duterte:

Mr Duterte once joked about the gang rape and murder of an Australian missionary, suggesting that, because he was mayor of the town it took place in, he should have been allowed to go first. (US president Donald Trump has since said that he has a “great relationship” with the Filipino leader.)

In contrast to Obama, who preferred polite, wimpy leaders like Merkel and Trudeau, Trump likes tough guys like Italy’s Salvini:

Mr Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and a Trump admirer, has also taunted female politicians. In 2016, at a political rally, he pointed to a sex doll on the stage and claimed that it was a “double” of Laura Boldrini, who was then president of Italy’s Chamber of Deputies. In a recent interview with Politico, Ms Boldrini said that she has received numerous rape and death threats in recent years, adding that Italy’s populists had targeted her because “I was a woman and I was advocating for refugees, for human rights, for women’s rights”.

And of course Putin:

Vladimir Putin’s international image was tainted today after it emerged he had let slip another of his infamous remarks – this time praising the president of Israel for alleged sex offences.”He turned out to be a strong man, raped 10 women,” the Russian president was quoted by Russian media as saying at a meeting in Moscow with Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert. “I never would have expected it of him. He has surprised us all, we all envy him!”

Israeli police announced on Sunday that the president, Moshe Katsav, could be charged with the rape and sexual harassment of several women.

Soon, Trump will be joined by a fellow traveller in Brazil:

Mr Bolsonaro has exploited their fury brilliantly. Until the Lava Jato scandals, he was an undistinguished seven-term congressman from the state of Rio de Janeiro. He has a long history of being grossly offensive. He said he would not rape a congresswoman because she was “very ugly”; he said he would prefer a dead son to a gay one; and he suggested that people who live in settlements founded by escaped slaves are fat and lazy. Suddenly that willingness to break taboos is being taken as evidence that he is different from the political hacks in the capital city, Brasília.

It’s so refreshing that politicians are now able to ignore taboos against racism and rape jokes.

PS.  Do I have to say the preceding was a pathetic attempt at satire?  I suppose so. If you want some seriously good satire, read Will Wilkinson’s set of tweets on Trump as a Shakespearean figure—it’s great.  If you don’t understand the context, you may need to look at the NYT’s recent demolition of Trump’s entire business career.  Yes, it was also built on a pack of lies and fraud, plus frequent bailouts from daddy.  I know; how can you demolish a reputation that is already a mere pile of rubble?

PPS.  And let’s not forget the National Review, who seems to think the biggest problem with the GOP is Jeff Flake.  Or CNN News, which never met a female accuser they did not believe.  Or the “trendy” parts of the academy, which was again discredited in an hilarious update of the Sokal Hoax.

I feel I’m overdosing on cynicism.  I need some sort of medication to deal with those 6-hour lulls in the news cycle where nothing Onion-level insane happens in the world.  Perhaps if I go kayaking in New Zealand and get slapped in the face by an octopus wielding seal, it will shake me out of my ennui.

29 Sep 04:06

Facebook reportedly avoided DOJ wiretap of Messenger calls

by Mallory Locklear
As part of a case involving members of the MS-13 gang, the US Department of Justice has been pushing to get access to Facebook Messenger voice calls. It even attempted to hold Facebook in contempt of court last month when the company pushed back on a...
26 Sep 03:53

Inside An Edible Chocolate Cottage That Costs $59 A Night

by Eustacia Huen, Contributor
Living in a chocolate house no longer has to be a scene out of a movie, because Booking.com just made every chocoholic’s dream come true.