Shared posts

14 Jun 15:48

636 - Fox News feat. Stavros Halkias (6/13/22)

Tom Roche

VERY FUNNY: only implicit politics (because always ...), just the dudes and Stavros Halkias on comedy today, small dicks, small clits, Baltimore corruption, being Greek, and reverse grooming, before doing Stavvy Baby's patented advice-guy Q&A

Stavvy stops by to discuss his new YouTube stand-up special and, of course, help answer advice questions submitted to other publications. This edition features a particularly insane mix of advice seekers and includes lazy first graders, animal apparel charity fraud, and the mischievous spirit of the Fox.


Watch Stav’s special right now for free at: https://youtu.be/eNpkhX85yf0


Everything in our store is 25% off now through the end of July: https://shop.chapotraphouse.com/


And finally, keep your eyes on Patreon for information on presale tickets for our August 4th show at the Aladdin Theater in Portland, OR.



Get bonus content on Patreon

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14 Jun 04:06

Chris Moffitt: Using Document Properties to Track Your Excel Reports

Tom Roche

unfortunately process described uses only payware (VS Code->Excel)

Introduction

When doing analysis with Jupyter Notebooks, you will frequently find yourself generating ad-hoc Excel reports to distribute to your end-users. After time, you might end up with dozens (or hundreds) of notebooks and it can be challenging to remember which notebook generated which Excel report. I have started using Excel document properties to track which notebooks generate specific Excel files. Now, when a user asks for a refresh of a 6 month old report, I can easily find the notebook file and re-run the analysis. This simple process can save a lot of frustration for your future self. In this brief article will walk through how to set these properties and give some shortcuts for using VS Code to simplify the process.

Background

How often has this happened to you? You get an email from a colleague and they ask you to refresh some analysis you did for them many months ago? You can tell that you created the Excel file from a notebook but can’t remember which notebook you used? Despite trying to be as organized as possible it is inevitable that you will waste time trying to find the originating notebook.

The nice aspect of the Excel document properties is that most people don’t change them. So, even if a user renames the file, the properties you set will be easily visible and should point the way to where the original code sits on your system.

Adding Properties

If you’re using pandas and xlsxwriter, adding properties is relatively simple.

Here’s a simple notebook showing how I typically structure my analysis:

import pandas as pd
from pathlib import Path
from datetime import datetime

today = datetime.now()
report_file = Path.cwd() / 'reports' / f'sales_report_{today:%b-%d-%Y}.xlsx'

url = 'https://github.com/chris1610/pbpython/blob/master/data/2018_Sales_Total_v2.xlsx?raw=True'
df = pd.read_excel(url)

The important point is that I try to always use a standard naming convention that includes the date in the name as well as a standard directory structure.

Now, I’ll do a groupby to show sales by month for each account:

sales_summary = df.groupby(['name', pd.Grouper(key='date', freq='M')]).agg({
    'ext price':
    'sum'
}).unstack()

Here’s what the basic DataFrame output looks like:

Sales summary

The final step is to save the DataFrame to Excel using the pd.ExcelWriter context manager and set the document properties:

with pd.ExcelWriter(report_file,
                engine='xlsxwriter',
                date_format='mmm-yyyy',
                datetime_format='mmm-yyyy') as writer:
    sales_summary.to_excel(writer, sheet_name='2018-sales')
    workbook = writer.book
    workbook.set_properties({
        'category': r'c:\Users\cmoffitt\Documents\notebooks\customer_analysis',
        'title' : '2018 Sales Summary',
        'subject': 'Analysis for Anne Analyst',
        'author': '1-Excel-Properties.ipynb',
        'status': 'Initial draft',
        'comments': 'src_dir: customer_analysis',
        'keywords': 'notebook-generated'
    })

Once this is done, you can view the properties in a couple of different ways.

First, you can hover over the filename and get a quick view:

Excel property hover details

You can also view the details without opening Excel:

Excel property details

You can view the properties through Excel:

Excel property details

As you can see from the example, there are a handful of options for the properties. I encourage you to adjust these based on your own needs. For example, I save all of my work in a notebooks directory so it’s most useful to me to specify the src_dir in the Comments section. This will quickly point me to the right directory and the Authors property lets me know which specific file I used.

Observant readers will notice that I used this as an example to show how to adjust the date formats of the Excel output as well. As you can see below, I have adjusted the Excel output so that only the month and year are shown in the header. I find this much easier than going in and adjusting every example by hand.

Here’s what it looks like now:

Excel property details

Using VS Code Snippets

If you find this helpful, you may want to set up a snippet in VS Code to make this easier. I covered how to create snippets in this article so refer back to that for a refresher.

Here is a starter snippet to save the file to Excel and populate some properties:

"Write Excel": {
"prefix": "we",
"body": [
    "# Excelwriter",
    "with pd.ExcelWriter(report_file, engine='xlsxwriter', date_format='mmm-yyyy', datetime_format='mmm-yyyy') as writer:",
    "\t$1.to_excel(writer, sheet_name='$2')",
    "\tworkbook = writer.book",
    "\tworkbook.set_properties({'category': r'$TM_DIRECTORY', 'author': '$TM_FILENAME'})",
],
"description": "Write Excel file"
}

One nice benefit of using the snippet is that you can access VS Code variables such as $TM_DIRECTORY and $TM_FILENAME to pre-populate the current path and name.

Conclusion

When working with Jupyter Notebooks it is important to have a consistent process for organizing and naming your files and directories. Otherwise the development process can get very chaotic. Even with good organization skills, it is easy to lose track of which scripts generate which outputs. Using the Excel document properties can be a quick and relatively painless way to lay out some breadcrumbs so that it is easy to recreate your analysis.

Let me know in the comments if you have any other tips you’ve learned over the years.

13 Jun 16:13

Glenn Greenwald on Jan 6 and Ukraine

by Matt Taibbi
Tom Roche

EXCELLENT, much too short

Click here for the full episode, including the extended interview with Glenn Greenwald on Jan 6, Ukraine, and Biden’s failures.

There’s a whole lot of terrible stuff going on which means Glenn Greenwald has a whole lot to say:

•Biden’s failure at the Summit of the Americas: Latin American leaders are boycotting Biden’s summit because he refused to invite the dictatorships of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Biden’s packing for his big trip to the dictatorship of Saudi Arabia…

•Jan 6 in Prime Time: “I don’t think dramatizing this three-hour protest from 18 months ago will do very much at all other than underscore the fact that this is the only strategy the Democrats have.”

•More Russiagate developments: “When I heard that first ad where Hillary Clinton had that sinister music playing and said, ‘What is this relationship between Donald Trump and the Russians?’ to me it just immediately sounded like the kind of McCarthyite toxicity I had spent many decades abhorring.”

Subscribe to hear the full interview with Glenn where we deep dive on January 6, play Trump vs Bernie vs Chomsky, and hear about Glenn’s animal shelter run by unhoused people in Rio.

It’s all this, and more, on this week’s episode of Useful Idiots. Check it out.

Subscribe now

11 Jun 14:31

Andre Roberge: Nicer arithmetic with Python

Tom Roche

CLI tricks to avoid the usual IEEE 754 floating-point-arithmetic problems

Beginning programmers are often surprised by floating point arithmetic inaccuracies. If they use Python, many will often write posts saying that Python is "broken" when the see results as follows:

>>> 0.1 + 0.2
0.30000000000000004

This particular result is not limited to Python. In fact, it is so common that there exists a site with a name inspired by this example (0.30000000000000004.com/), devoted to explaining the origin of this puzzling result, followed by examples from many programming languages.

Python provides some alternatives to standard floating point operations. For example, one can use the decimal module to perform fixed point arithmetic operations. Here's an example.

>>> from decimal import Decimal, getcontext
>>> getcontext().prec = 7
>>> Decimal(0.1) + Decimal(0.2)
Decimal('0.3000000')
>>> print(_)
0.3000000

While one can set the precision (number of decimals) with which operations are performed, printed values can carry extra zeros: 0.3000000 does not look as "nice" as 0.3.

Another alternative included with Python's standard library is the fractions module: it provides support for rational number arithmetic.

>>> from fractions import Fraction
>>> Fraction("0.1") + Fraction("0.2")
Fraction(3, 10)
>>> print(_)
3/10

However, the fractions module can yield some surprising results if one does not use string arguments to represent floats, as was mentioned by Will McGugan (of Rich and Textual fame) in a recent tweet.

>>> from fractions import Fraction as F
>>> F("0.1")
Fraction(1, 10)
>>> F(0.1)
Fraction(3602879701896397, 36028797018963968)

In the second case, 0.1 is a float which means that it carries some intrinsic inaccuracy. For the first case, some parsing is done by Python to determine the number of decimal places to use before converting the result into a rational number. A similar result can be achieved using the limit_denominator method of the Fraction class:

>>> F(0.1).limit_denominator(10)
Fraction(1, 10)

In fact, we do not have to be as restrictive in the limitation imposed on the denominator to achieve the same result

>>> F(0.1).limit_denominator(1_000_000_000)
Fraction(1, 10)

While we can achieve some "more intuitive" results for floating point arithmetic using special modules from Python, the notation that one has to use is not as simple as "0.1 + 0.2". As Raymond Hettinger often says: "There has to be a better way."

Using ideas

As readers of this blog already know, I created a Python package named ideas to facilitate the creation of import hooks and to enable easy experimentation with modified Python syntax. ideas comes with its own console that support modified Python syntax. It can also be used with IPython (and thus with Jupyter notebooks).

Using ideas, one can "instruct" python to perform rational arithmetic.  For example, suppose I have a Python file containing the following:

# simple_math.py

a = 0.2 + 0.1
b = 0.2 + 1/10
c = 2/10 + 1/10
print(a, b, c)

I can run this with Python, getting the expected "unintuitive" result:

> py simple_math.py
0.30000000000000004 0.30000000000000004 0.30000000000000004

Alternatively, using ideas, I can execute this file using rational arithmetic:

> ideas simple_math -a rational_math
3/10 3/10 3/10

Using a different import hook, I can have the result shown with floating point notation.

> ideas simple_math -a nicer_floats
0.3 0.3 0.3

Instead of executing a script, let's use the ideas console instead, starting with "nicer_float"

ideas> 0.1 + 0.2
0.3

ideas> 1/10 + 2/10
0.3
For "nicer_float", I've also adopted the Pyret's notation: floating-point number immediately preceded by "~" are treated as "approximate" floating points i.e. with the regular inaccuracy.
ideas> ~0.1 + 0.2
0.30000000000000004

And, as mentioned before, I can use ideas with IPython. Here's a very brief example

IPython 8.0.0b1 -- An enhanced Interactive Python. Type '?' for help.

In [1]: from ideas.examples import rational_math

In [2]: hook = rational_math.add_hook()
The following initializing code from ideas is included:

from fractions import Fraction

In [3]: 0.1 + 0.2
Out[3]: Fraction(3, 10)

Final thoughts

Given how confusing floating point arithmetic is to beginners, I think it would be nice if Python had an easy built-in way to switch modes and do calculations as done with ideas in the above examples. However, I doubt very much that this will ever happen. Fortunately, as demonstrated above, it is possible to use import hooks and modified interactive console to achieve this result.

11 Jun 01:43

Jacobin Show: Elites Are Lying About Inflation w/ Samir Sonti

Tom Roche

all 3 segments EXCELLENT

Samir Sonti argues that the causes of current inflation are supply side issues and if the Fed chooses to fight it by raising interest rates, it will only hurt workers. Jen explores the world of "anticapitalist investing". Jared Abbott comes on to talk about what makes the US public transportation system exceptionally bad.


Samir Sonti's article in the latest issue: https://jacobin.com/2022/06/what-you-...

Jared Abbott's article: https://jacobin.com/2022/06/american-exceptionalism-off-the-rails


0:00 interview with Samir

21:12 Jen's segment on "anticapitalist investing"

27:21 interview with Jared


Subscribe to Jacobin for just $10: https://jacobinmag.com/subscribe/?code=JACOBINYT

Music provided by Zonkey: https://linktr.ee/zonkey


The Jacobin Show offers socialist perspectives on class and capitalism in the twenty-first century, the failures of liberalism, and the prospects of rebuilding a left labor movement in the US. This is the podcast version of the show from June 8, 2022.



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10 Jun 16:15

635 - Total Recall (6/9/22)

Tom Roche

EXCELLENT, esp dunking on shitlib oligarch Nellie Bowles (posing as regular San Franciscan despite being an heiress to the "Cattle King of California" whose family owns most of the water rights in the entire *state*)

We spend the majority of this episode discussing the Chesa Boudin recall, liberal views on crime, homelessness, housing and the reality of bad vibes in urban politics. We also look at Nellie Bowles’ piece in the Atlantic declaring San Francisco a “failed city”. Also: Amy Coney Barrett Catholic sex cult, Nexium & online media drama. Get bonus content on Patreon

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10 Jun 02:05

Michael and Us: Pieces of Flair

Tom Roche

EXCELLENT as usual, *plus* Luke and Will share memories of their own personal grim-work experiences

Our Superdelegate patron tier has voted for us to discuss Mike Judge's workplace satire OFFICE SPACE (1999), and it leads us down a long rabbit hole of remembering bad work experiences. PLUS: We take a fond look back on the all-time classic Man of the Year (2006)



Michael and Us is a podcast about political cinema and our crumbling world hosted by Will Sloan and Luke Savage.



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10 Jun 02:02

Scramble for Africa 15: France Seizes West Africa

Tom Roche

yet another EXCELLENT Scramble episode from Dave and Justin

In this episode France seizes the territories of the Tukolors (overthrowing Sultan Ahmadu), battles Samori Toure, and fights a long war with King Benanzin of Dahomey. Some observations about the differences between France’s notions of colonialism and those of the British, in whose footsteps the French colonizers hoped to follow.
10 Jun 02:02

Scramble for Africa 14: France saves Sadok Bey of Tunis from a nonexistent threat and steals the country 1881

Tom Roche

another great Scramble episode from Dave and Justin

After a bit of comparing and contrasting French colonialism with the British type, Dave tells us about the French Foreign Legion; Then we’re on to a key piece in France’s Scramble for Africa, the theft of Tunis from the Bey, Muhammad Sadok. In the process, the French colonizers insisted they were saving Sadok Bey from … Continue reading "Scramble for Africa 14: France saves Sadok Bey of Tunis from a nonexistent threat and steals the country 1881"
10 Jun 02:01

Archaeologists digging into Egypt's past

Tom Roche

VERY EXCELLENT: obviously yer not gonna get a survey of Egyptology in a 53-min LNL (and this was in fact a 1-segment program) but nicely conveys the joy and intelligence of some smart people talking about doing something they love

This year marks the 200th anniversary of the Frenchman Jean-François Champollion’s decipherment of hieroglyphs and 100 years since the British archaeologist Howard Carter found King Tutankhamen’s tomb filled with all those bewitching treasures in the Valley of the Kings. To celebrate, three Ancient Egyptian scholars dust off their boots and down tools to discuss their incredible discoveries and what life is like as a contemporary archaeologist.
09 Jun 20:37

Tang Era Poetry

Tom Roche

folks less knowledgeable about the period might also wanna listen to the 2012 IOT on the (somewhat misnamed) [An Lushan Rebellion](https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01by8ms)

Melvyn Bragg and guests discuss two of China’s greatest poets, Li Bai and Du Fu, who wrote in the 8th century in the Tang Era. Li Bai (701-762AD) is known for personal poems, many of them about drinking wine, and for finding the enjoyment in life. Du Fu (712-770AD), a few years younger, is more of an everyman, writing in the upheaval of the An Lushan Rebellion (755-763AD). Together they have been a central part of Chinese culture for over a millennium, reflecting the balance between the individual and the public life, and one sign of their enduring appeal is that there is rarely agreement on which of them is the greater.

The image above is intended to depict Du Fu.

With

Tim Barrett Professor Emeritus of East Asian History at SOAS, University of London

Tian Yuan Tan Shaw Professor of Chinese at the University of Oxford and Professorial Fellow at University College

And

Frances Wood Former Curator of the Chinese Collections at the British Library

Producer: Simon Tillotson

09 Jun 20:30

Quantum computer succeeds where a classical algorithm fails

by John Timmer
Tom Roche

conclusions, heavily edited:
> [1. The authors are] claiming a quantum [compute-time] advantage rather than quantum supremacy. [... But] the quantum system didn't even have to be very good [in terms of |qubits| or lack of error (i.e., reverse of error-prone)] to generate an advantage.
> [2. These tests ran some] specific operations that can only be done on quantum computing hardware. We're not at calculations yet, but this work definitely required an ability to manipulate quantum systems.
> [3. But exploiting this advantage will require the ability to routinely and reliably] transfer the state of a quantum system into the state of the qubits[, and for many problems] we might be interested in, there's no obvious way to do that without falling back to measuring the system and then using the resulting classical information on its states to set the qubits [... which would probably give] up some or all of [the quantum] advantage over classical systems.
> [4. These tests] used a hybrid system: part quantum and part classical[:] the machine learning took place on classical hardware [since the quantum computers had such] low-qubit-count.
> [5. These tests ran] unsupervised learning[. Thus, similar hybrid systems] could potentially identify [classical-quantum] distinctions that we don't even know exist and, so, help us gain a better understanding of quantum mechanics.

Image of a chip above iridescent wiring.

Enlarge / Google's Sycamore processor. (credit: Google)

People have performed many mathematical proofs to show that a quantum computer will vastly outperform traditional computers on a number of algorithms. But the quantum computers we have now are error-prone and don't have enough qubits to allow for error correction. The only demonstrations we've had involve quantum computing hardware evolving out of a random configuration and traditional computers failing to simulate their normal behavior. Useful calculations are an exercise for the future.

But a new paper from Google's quantum computing group has now moved beyond these sorts of demonstrations and used a quantum computer as part of a system that can help us understand quantum systems in general, rather than the quantum computer. And they show that, even on today's error-prone hardware, the system can outperform classical computers on the same problem.

Probing quantum systems

To understand what the new work involves, it helps to step back and think about how we typically understand quantum systems. Since the behavior of these systems is probabilistic, we typically need to measure them repeatedly. The results of these measurements are then imported into a classical computer, which processes them to generate a statistical understanding of the system's behavior. With a quantum computer, by contrast, it can be possible to mirror a quantum state using the qubits themselves, reproduce it as often as needed, and manipulate it as necessary. This method has the potential to provide a route to a more direct understanding of the quantum system at issue.

Read 17 remaining paragraphs | Comments

09 Jun 15:12

Emacs Redux: Forever Emacs

by Bozhidar Batsov
Tom Roche

Not-quite-accurate survey of failware: Eclipse and NetBeans are still very much happening (if not nearly as hip-and-cool as say 10 years ago), and while Atom-the-editor is sunsetting, the underlying Electron framework is still very much happening, with IDEs including Visual Studio Code and Eclipse Theia (which can share plugins with VSC)

Operating systems, GUI toolkits and competing editors come and go, but Emacs is forever!

– Unknown

Yesterday it was announced that the once popular Atom editor is going to be discontinued at the end of this year.

I’ve often said that one of the great advantages of Emacs is that it has stood the test of time1 and will likely be with us for a very long time to come. During the 25 years I’ve been into computers and programming I’ve seen a lot of editors and IDEs rise and fall:

  • Komodo
  • Eclipse
  • NetBeans
  • TextMate
  • LightTable

And now Atom. Any investment you’ve made to master those tools and build additional plugins for them has been mostly wasted in the end.

This list also serves to illustrate that just being an open-source project doesn’t mean much, if there’s no real community around the project and the bulk of the development is driven by commercial interests. The moment when such projects lose their backing they typically stagnate and die. It’s not like community project don’t meet their demise from time to time as well, but they are definitely much more resilient than the typical company-driven OSS project.

Emacs is a true community-driven project and I’m certain that it will outlive many more trendy editors until all is said and done.2 If you’re playing the long game, you better pick the right tools for it.

In Emacs we trust! M-x forever!

  1. It first appeared way back in 1976! 

  2. Same goes for our evil nemesis vim

08 Jun 15:24

634 - Feelin’ Feinstein! (6/6/22)

Tom Roche

EXCELLENT 4 segments in episode#=634, very politics (if you're just here for the yuks, this ep delivers less than usual, but as always The Boyz (the full trio this time) are never unfunny) both US and global:
- still-smokin'-hot MTG grooms ex-gay Milo Yiannopoulos with unpaid internship
- liberal Zionist Matt Duss scolds US left for not being pro-Ukraine enough
- NYT mystifies Israel murder of Shireen Abu Akleh, because who can possibly know which IDF sniper killed this US citizen ?-(
- Rebecca Traister sniffs the rot in CorpDem identitarian Dianne Feinstein, then decorously turns away, because both RT and DF are shitlibs

Between a piece on “the left’s” positions on Ukraine, the NYT’s coverage of the death of Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, and Rebecca Traister’s new profile of Dianne Feinstein, the theme of today’s episode is “looking the truth in the face and ignoring the most obvious conclusion.” Get bonus content on Patreon

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06 Jun 22:17

Michael and Us: Trust the Plan

Tom Roche

EXCELLENT, and very funny, and very *fair* (in the sense of accurate and disinterested) discussion of the rise of Trump as due *not* to Putin, social media, etc, but the fact that Trump said things that lots of Americans (note Savage and Sloan are Canadian, which gives them a *bit* of distance) liked and believed (often though not always correctly) to be true, and Trump said them in a way that many American voters enjoyed. The analysis of Trump's rhetoric as "small business" is *very* clarifying.

What is a quickly-made, low-effort documentary like ONE NATION UNDER TRUMP (2016) good for? Not a lot. But one thing that this ridiculous pro-Trump hagiography provided us with was a chance to marinate for long, unbroken stretches of time in the 45th president's rhetorical style. We made some unexpected discoveries about how his distinctive way of speaking led him to the presidency.


Michael and Us is a podcast about political cinema and our crumbling world hosted by Will Sloan and Luke Savage.



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05 Jun 02:48

The revival of NATO: Good or bad for world security?

Tom Roche

SINGULAR (though very short--19:20--but information-dense) Late Night Live 30 May 2022 interview with Thomas Meaney @ MPI Göttingen and the Quincy Institute (aka QIRS) on the pre/history of NATO to 2022, and its recent and present normativity. (Follows up on at least 2 articles in the Guardian--TODO: link and archive.) Following ~sequential:

- 1945: Stalin and communism 'were surprisingly popular in western Europe' for defeating Nazism, so WE elites decided they needed 'some new force to counteract this new, strong, and popular Russia'
- [1948 Treaty of Brussels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Brussels) creates [Western Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Union_(alliance)) alliance
- US creates NATO ('they realized it would be more practical if they took it over and ran it as their baby rather than the Europeans') 1949 from Western Union et al (Canada, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Iceland) specifically to fight not only USSR, but to combat European Communist parties. (Not mentioned here, but Western Union merges into NATO during Korean War.)
- Marshall Plan 'very popular in Europe, but had to be sold to the American public', and 'somewhat surreptitiously.' Meaney ascribes this to war-weariness; gotta wonder if in fact its unpopularity was due to the Marshall Plan being a massive fiscal transfer.
- NATO as "culture [and] a state of mind" with a "songbook [and] golf club [in Belgium]." Bing Crosby NATO ballad! "bases and academies ... company towns ... NATO schools [and] kindergartens."
- Eurocentric 'NATO mindset' and associated deepstate (notably 'US State Dept' and 'NATO bureaucracy') vs (e.g.) Obama 'pivot to Asia'; as a result the "[Russia-Ukraine war--'RUW' below] comes as a relief--we can focus again on Europe"
- NATO reacts to 1989-1991 collapse of Warsaw Pact and USSR: "NATO expands, its bureaucracy expands, [its membership] expands." New purpose is "certifying liberal modernity"; NATO "becomes [a] rating agency, [declaring each member is] safe for business [and] investment." Also prestage in pipeline leading to EU/Eurozone membership.
- NATO begins "humanitarian" interventions: Meaney is careful to note this as 'ideology'. US hegemony/unipolarity allows it to intervene in 'little conflicts' to 'mop up the messy spots of Europe' esp Balkans. (Meaney mentions Yugoslavia and also Iraq and Libya below, but not (IIRC) Afghanistan.)
- good side note that 7 May 1999 CIA-directed US bombing of PRC embassy in Belgrade "for a lot of Chinese people is their 1st foreign-policy memory."
- NATO continues to function despite internal disputes (e.g., 2003 US invaded Iraq 'over the objections' of some NATO members, but esp Greece-Turkey tensions esp Cyprus esp 1974): "alliance is strong because it allows for a certain degree of [internal] dissent." But the US makes final decisions, esp on most important matters: 'when push comes to shove, if a major question comes up, the buck still stops in Washington, and it will decide the order of the day'
- Trump threats of US pullout 'actually strengthened' NATO. Trump rhetoric 'terrified' 'European bureaucrats', but eventually Trump "increased [US] troops in Europe [and] conducted all the NATO exercises"
- Adams (host): "we should pause to ask whether [RUW-induced accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO] will make the world more or less safe." Meaney "argues that NATO has [net] made the world less safe":
- more safe: controlling European conflicts esp Greece-Turkey
- less safe: 'institutionalized nuclear brinkmanship' and 'proliferating nuclear weapons across Europe'
- less safe: expansion causes responses. Notably (and Meaney does a real service by pointing out this mostly-forgotten fact) the USSR creates the Warsaw Pact 1955 in response to the 1954-1955 integration of West Germany into NATO--a claim to which even [Empirepedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Pact) agrees
- less safe: 'the invasion of Libya was completely disastrous', making 'North Africa much more dangerous' (and, for that matter, MENA, though Meaney does not discuss the implications of NATO's Libya intervention on, e.g., Syria). 'Malian civil war' and Sahel migration
- less safe: expansion toward Russia inflamed entire Russian people, 'obsesses' figures as diverse as Gorbachev and Putin. (Adams) "The West has been so dismissive of that anxiety." Meaney counterscenario of Cold War Soviet 'bases in Tasmania and New Zealand': "what would that have done to [Australian public opinion]." And yet Meaney /oddly/ says that the "Russian response ... is not reasonable [and should not be] sympathized with" !?! but that is their objective response: "we can wish that they were different, [...] but the people in [Russia] behave in a certain way and we've known that for years. So to press their buttons [that] way [is] irresponsible."
- less safe: when US/NATO rejects "zones of ambiguity" such that "you're either with us or against us," "solutions become total," s.t. war can only result in total victory or defeat, which is extremely dangerous when dealing with a power (Meaney alludes to this but not explicitly) which can escalate to nuclear war.
*VERY IMPORTANT* quote from Meaney @ ~15:45: "the main concern of NATO during the Cold War was not so much [Soviet] invasion[, but] Communist parties in western Europe: it was about the political way Europe was organized." Meaney argues that instead states (presumably including imperial subalterns--note Meaney never uses the word 'empire' AFAIK in this interview) "should have as much autonomy as they can in their space[, but] NATO is about restricting that autonomy," particularly Europe-specific defense agreements/organizations.
- regarding (Adams) 'alternative security orders': Meaney bemoans western-Europe-centric mindset refusing to include (e.g.) Russia (in NATO) and Morocco (in EU)
- regarding effect of (possible) Trump 2024: Meaney dismisses due to (not his words) power of the US deepstate. (Meaney instead uses the tired turning-a-battleship analogy.)

Putin's invasion of Russia has breathed new life into the alliance Trump considered 'obsolete'. As Sweden and Finland are poised to become the latest members, it's worth considering what the purpose of NATO actually is and whether it has made, and will continue to make, the world a safer place.
04 Jun 02:44

Contrary to What You Read in the Paper, People Are Not Spending Down Their Savings

by Dean Baker
Tom Roche

Excellent explainer on US econometrics (i.e., how statistics on US economy are calculated), and how the US mass-oriented corporate-funded media explains our economy wrongly--in this case, much recent (early Jun 2022) uproar regarding an allegedly-large Apr 2022 decline in the US savings rate.

Slightly-edited pullquote:

> [The US] saving rate can fall either because consumption rises rapidly or disposable income falls. [US national accounts show a recent decline in disposable income, due to] a big increase in [taxes collected]. There has been no big increase in tax /rates/ in the last three years [(i.e., during COVID-19), but the US 1%] have made large gains in the stock market over this period. [As global stock markets fall, due to the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases, the 1% is] cashing out some of these gains.

The most important/misunderstood part (IMHO) of Baker's argument is:

> [But capital gains are not counted] as income in the national accounts. This means that when people sell stock at a gain, and then pay income tax on it, [this causes US economic statistics to show] a decline in disposable income. If consumption is unchanged [or declining], the GDP accounts [will thus show] a drop in the saving rate. [US] saving as a percent of [US] /personal income/ [(which excludes tax payments)] for April of 2022 [was] 19.2%. That is down from the 19.5% rate for the four years prior to the pandemic, but [not much.]

The April data on consumption expenditures left many people, including economics reporters, confused about consumer behavior. The basis of the confusion was a reported decline in the saving rate in April to 4.4 percent. It had been running over 8.0 percent in 2021.

However, this reported decline in the saving rate is deceptive. The saving rate is measure as the share of disposable income that is not spent. Disposable income, in turn, is defined as personal income (wages, government transfer payments, interest, dividends etc.) minus taxes.

The saving rate can fall either because consumption rises rapidly or disposable income falls. It turns out that the story we currently have of a declining saving rate is the latter, disposable income has been rising very slowly.

But the trick here is that the slow growth in disposable income is not due to slow growth in personal income. Rather, the slow growth in disposable income is the result of a big increase in taxes. In April, people paid taxes at an annual rate of $3,089 billion.[1] This is up by more than 40.0 percent from the $2,205 billion paid in taxes back in 2019, before the pandemic.

There has been no big increase in tax rates in the last three years, so that would not explain this huge jump in tax collections. The more likely explanation is that people have made large gains in the stock market over this period. They are cashing out some of these gains and paying capital gains taxes on them.

Capital gains income does not count as income in the national accounts. This means that when people sell stock at a gain, and then pay income tax on it, we would see this as a decline in disposable income. If consumption is unchanged, the GDP accounts would be showing a drop in the saving rate.

There is a simple way to adjust for this problem. We can just look at saving as a percent of personal income, ignoring the amount paid in taxes. If we look at this figure for April of 2022, it comes to 19.2 percent. That is down from the 19.5 percent rate for the four years prior to the pandemic, but I’m not sure that drop would warrant a big story about people spending down their savings.  

[1] This refers to income and payroll taxes, it does not count taxes like sales taxes or excise taxes on items like alcohol and cigarettes.

The post Contrary to What You Read in the Paper, People Are Not Spending Down Their Savings appeared first on Center for Economic and Policy Research.

04 Jun 01:00

Dr. Gerald Horne on mass shootings at home, imperial violence abroad

Tom Roche

Maté is excellent as usual, joined by Max Blumenthal in addition to Gerald Horne. And in addition to the topics mentioned in the shownotes, the last ~13 min of the audio (from 76:32) discuss the Sussman trial verdict in the evolution of the Russiagate hoax.

Historian and author Dr. Gerald Horne joins The Grayzone's Aaron Maté and Max Blumenthal for a live stream on the political and historical context behind the recent wave of mass shootings in the US; new revelations of the imperial plunder of Haiti; and the state of US hegemony amid a spiraling proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Guest: Dr. Gerald Horne, Moores Professor of History and African American Studies at the University of Houston. Author of more than three dozen books, including "The Counter-Revolution of 1836: Texas Slavery, Jim Crow and the Roots of U.S. Fascism."
04 Jun 00:24

Radio War Nerd EP 332 — Chechen Wars, Pt. 4: The Second Chechen War

by mail@yashalevine.com (Gary Brecher)
Tom Roche

VERY EXCELLENT: Ames and Dolan are usually reliable on post-USSR Eurasia esp Russia (and they're starting to get better on Ukraine), and this period (c1996-c2010, esp 1999-2000) is very much in their center of competence. Audio starts (1st 24 min) with discussion (also well done) of US mass shootings and politics Columbine/1999 to Uvalde/2022.

Co-hosts Gary Brecher & Mark Ames
03 Jun 17:09

633 - Here They Come to Snuff the Rooster feat. American Prestige (6/2/22)

Tom Roche

VERY EXCELLENT: consistently funny celebration of Movie Fucking Magic. Bessner and Davison fill-in for Felix, Matt *on fire*, Will keeps the train on the rails

Derek Davison & Danny Bessner from the American Prestige pod join us to discuss TOP GUN: MAVERICK. We discuss the essential dryness of modern films, how Top Gun propagandizes the insane destructive uselessness of our military, and how we can see America’s destiny in Tom Cruise’s career.


Will guested on American Prestige this week to discuss the original Top Gun. That episode will be out soon on their feed. Find all things AP over at: www.americanprestigepod.com



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03 Jun 15:13

Scramble for Africa 13: France in the Scramble – the Algeria Precedent and Abdelkader’s Resistance

Tom Roche

excellent

We talked about France’s colonization of Algeria back in Civilizations Episode 15 (in August 2020). We revisit it now, as France’s entry point into the Scramble for Africa. Algeria was France’s template for colonizing Africa and many of the dynamics of France’s African colonial crimes can be seen developing in Algeria. We end up focusing … Continue reading "Scramble for Africa 13: France in the Scramble – the Algeria Precedent and Abdelkader’s Resistance"
02 Jun 20:27

AER 111: Imran Khan’s Long March in Pakistan

Tom Roche

good quick update on Pakistan politics as of 1 Jun 2022 (recorded ~week before that?) from a PTI-friendly perspective

An update on the dynamic situation in Pakistan. Fan favorite Waqas Ahmad (@worqas on twitter) is back to talk about the massive march and nationwide protest of May 25 in Pakistan, which ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan called. Imran Khan called the protest off on May 26 in the face of escalation and repression, giving … Continue reading "AER 111: Imran Khan’s Long March in Pakistan"
02 Jun 17:12

Peter Singer on Consequentialism

Tom Roche

EXCELLENT: much too short, but a well-spent 20 min on utilitarianism, different ways to apply it in daily life, and ways Singer has applied it in his (and partners') academic work

Peter Singer is probably the most famous living philosopher. He recently won the million-dollar Berggruen Prize and promptly gave all that money to charity. His positions on this, on animals, poverty, altruism, and much else besides are underpinned by his consequentialism. Here, in conversation with Nigel Warburton he explains his consequentialism and its implications.

02 Jun 16:57

NATO's new cryptocurrency, the Kruggerrand! (feat. Brödrafolkens Podd)

by The Späti Boys
Tom Roche

EXCELLENT, very funny takes on culture, history, and politics in (mostly) Sweden, (much less on) Finland, and bits on Norway and Denmark. (and /very/ little on Kruggerrands, actually--not sure why Ciarán decided to put that in the title)

This week we talk about Finland and Sweden joining NATO in a super cool, democratic and reasonable way. We have on the gang from Brödrafolkens Podd to explain their fascinating culture and we ask the question, can you really do fucked up shit in Africa without paying for it in Kruggerrands?

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01 Jun 23:49

632 - They Droop Horses, Don’t They? (5/31/22)

Tom Roche

VERY EXCELLENT (and funny). Producer Chris Wade fills in for Felix, but it's mostly Will and Matt crushing (in addition to what's in the shownotes) the Paul Pelosi DUI, Boebert-Trump chemistry, Make-A-Wish sexwork, the UK monarchy, Irish unification, and preparing for Hillary 2024

We do a public company audit over our failure to obtain PPP loans for our podcast business like our more industrious competitors. Then, a few current events including Trump at the NRA convention, Swedish hospitality habits, and the bloody shambles of indignities around the Queen’s platinum jubilee. Finally, a reading series from Biden-world about the president’s frustration that he just can’t seem to catch a break! Get bonus content on Patreon

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31 May 18:58

Colombia elections: Left wins historic victory against narco-regime

Tom Roche

excellent overview of Colombian politics c1990-2022, though unfortunately focuses on national politics to the detriment of economics and local/regional differences. (Also nothing about the odd/alarming proposal for Colombia to join NATO.)

Colombia's presidential candidate Gustavo Petro of the left-wing Pacto Histórico coalition won round one of the May 29 elections in a landslide. He will compete against a far-right hundred-millionaire real estate mogul, Rodolfo Hernández, in a runoff vote on June 19. Multipolarista editor Benjamin Norton speaks with members of the anti-imperialist Troika Kollective in Colombia to discuss the election and the political situation in the country. VIDEO: https://youtube.com/watch?v=SfIJ9uf40sU Troika Kollective website: https://troikakollective.com Support our work on Patreon at https://patreon.com/multipolarista
31 May 18:56

DMs Are Open

Tom Roche

Moderately-amusing 30 min. /Definitely/ not the funniest [Comedy of the Week](http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02pc9x6) ever, probably because the concept/sell behind 'DMs are Open' is that all its {jokes, bits, sketches} come from material submitted by [cue 'Rule Britannia' in background] The Great British Public. But the show notes list `Script Editors: Catherine Brinkworth & Nathan Darcy-Roberts`, suggesting that the public contributions were at least ... massaged.

This week, DMs Are Open sees show hosts Athena Kugblenu and Ali Official dissecting the big stories alongside Akafi Ali, Abi Clarke and Stuart Laws. Tune in for sketches, one-liners and voice notes about the Love Island pre-occupied with recycling, football louts in a board meeting, and how opera singers take on video game classics. Written by: YOU, the public! Script Editors: Catherine Brinkworth & Nathan Darcy-Roberts Producers: Sadia Azmat and Rajiv Karia Production Coordinator: Sarah Nicholls Sound Editor: Sean Kerwin Sound Engineer: Neil Goody - Premises Studios A BBC Studios Production
28 May 21:18

631 - Uncut Hosts feat. Molly Lambert (5/26/22)

Tom Roche

VERY FUNNY--not just on Heidi Fleiss and the hell that is Los Angeles and that was the US 1990-2022 but also (most of 1st ~1/3) on Uvalde 24 May 2022. Ends with brief tribute to Ray Liotta (1954-2022)

We’re joined by Molly Lambert to discuss her new podcast HeidiWorld, the story of “Hollywood Madam” Heidi Fleiss. It’s a story that touches on celebrity, the cops, media show trials, and the porous boundaries between the sex trade and the entertainment industry, obviously a story with many current parallels. We also discuss the hosts’ dicks.


Find Heidiworld here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/heidiworld-the-heidi-fleiss-story/id1615634639

And on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/HEIDIWORLD



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28 May 20:26

559 - 9/11 Era, Pt. 2: You Can Not Yell At Me If I Am Crying (9/16/21)

Tom Roche

won't download

We turn towards the cultural side of the post-9/11 era, looking at films, tv and music that defined the times, as well as the crushing, mawkish sentimentality that stifled debate and drove calls to war. And we finish the Kim Du Toit reading series from last week, then offer you another seminal 9/11 reading series from The Baseball Crank.  Plus, Felix has a mini-dissertation on how 9/11 and our subsequent foreign wars and national hysteria are reflected in the development of hip-hop over the last two decades. Get bonus content on Patreon

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28 May 20:26

557 - The Inebriated Past 10: Mormons, pt. 1 (9/9/21)

Tom Roche

won't download

Matt guides us through the history of the Mormons, the most American religion. Get bonus content on Patreon

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