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26 Aug 23:13

Finally, a poll asks the truly important question: Which candidate is more evil?

by Allahpundit

To cleanse the palate. One difficult question has haunted this rancid armpit of an election above all others: Which of the two candidates best embodies the depraved malignancy of which the worst of humanity is capable?

We have our answer, my friends.

Among Trump’s voters a striking 83% would use the word “evil” to describe Clinton. Clinton voters aren’t much less willing to mince their words, with 66% describing Trump as “evil”.

However, these points of view rarely overlap. In fact, 37% of registered voters describe only Clinton as evil, and 30% describe only Trump as evil, and 24% describe neither candidate this way, but only 5% describe both candidates this way. Groups that are more likely to describe both candidates as evil are voters aged 18-34 (12%) and those who support third parties or are undecided (19%).

Only five percent say both of these phenomenally unpopular candidates are evil? I guess now we know exactly how many #NeverTrumpers there are. (Kidding. There are bound to be some Berniebros in that five percent too.) The choice on which candidate is more evil seems clear-cut, though. Many more Trump voters describe Hillary that way than Hillary voters describe Trump that way — never underestimate how much Republicans hate the Clintons — and among registered voters overall, more say Hillary alone is evil than say Trump alone is. Case closed.

Another interesting wrinkle: The numbers have shifted recently. Check the crosstabs of last week’s YouGov data and you’ll find that Trump voters split 75/20 at the time on whether Hillary is evil while Clinton voters split 72/19 on whether Trump is — nearly mirror images. Those mirror images don’t exist anymore, per the data above: There’s now a 17-point spread between partisan voters in viewing the other party’s candidate as evil. What happened to change that this week? Did Trump’s minority outreach touch some hearts? Did the latest Clinton Foundation pay-for-play revelations convince voters that Hillary’s even more a sleaze than they thought? Big news either way if true. I wonder if we’ll see Trump’s favorable rating improve in polls next week while Hillary’s dips.

Back to the new data. This partisan split on whether each word applies to the two nominees is interesting:

yg2

Most of that seems intuitive. Hillary corrupt? Sure. Even double digits within her own party think so. Trump crazy? Well, he is erratic. Fully 20 percent of Republicans agree, which I’d bet goes a long way towards explaining why he continues to underperform in consolidating GOP voters compared to Hillary consolidating Democrats. You can easily come up with arguments to support using each of these terms to describe either nominee — except, I think, “crazy” for Hillary. I’m not quite grasping that one, although 62 percent of Republicans are. Her problem, I thought, was that she’s too cold-bloodedly rational and calculating. Everything is focus-grouped, every self-enriching move is plotted. The fact that you’ve got 62 percent of GOPers calling her crazy anyway shows, I think, how most partisans on either side will grab at any pejorative to describe the enemy. If you had asked people whether Trump and Hillary are secretly vampires, you might have gotten 30-40 percent on that too.

Here’s Dolly Parton, who’s always willing to look on the bright side of life, insisting that Clinton and Trump are merely nuts, not evil.

The post Finally, a poll asks the truly important question: Which candidate is more evil? appeared first on Hot Air.

14 Jul 22:21

Trading Tools I use

by Pradeep Bonde

The tools you use depend on your setups, account size , and trading time frame. I primarily trade momentum and growth based setups on a swing time frame. I have million dollar plus account to trade. The tools I use are suitable for that .

The cost of tools for me is minuscule as % of capital traded.The cost of all  the tools for me is around 2500 dollar a year.
But for those with small account keeping cost of trading low is important.

Brokers

Interactive Brokers (recommended)
TD Ameritrade 
Fidelity 
I use three brokers for my trading but my favorite broker is Interactive Brokers. It has the best execution. The user interface is very suitable for active trading. Shorts are widely available.

Telechart 2000 Gold with real time data add on 

This is my most used trading tool. I run all my scans on this.
For my style of trading this is the best and simplest trading tool.
The only big limitation of TC2000 is it does not have more than 2 years of history.

Old Telechart 2000 for Stockbeebot Data

Stockbeebot is automated bot that calculates breadth intraday and posts on memers site.

Marketsmith 

I use Marketsmith primarily for Episodic pivots strategy as it has sales , EPS growth rates, fund holding and other information easily available.
I also run bunch of scans in Marketsmith for earnings surprise and growth stocks.

Investor's Business Daily

Not very useful in current weekly format. 

Free Tools I use

Finviz
Zacks
Seeking Alpha
12 May 16:16

Let’s Assess the Current Situation, Shall We?

by Dr. Fly

Apple and Netflix, two vital components of the tech growth narrative, are under siege.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and similar aggressive drug caitiffs, is death spiraling towards oblivion.

Retail is in tatters, complete fucked from crown to foot.

The banks are a joke, hamstrung by onerous regulators and shrinking margins.

The sole bastion of hope, and cocaine fueled joviality, can be found in the oil patch.

With crude angering its way higher, a great merriment will sweep the nation. People will rejoice in higher fuel and power generation expenses, while stockpiling  copper tubing.

With oil going higher, industrials seem to work too. They’re interconnected.

In summary, to be long this market with any semblance of confidence, you must pray to the ghost of John D. Rockefeller, hoping that he can provide succor to the price of crude from Elysium. If crude fails here, the market is going straight down like swill in a sieve.

The post Let’s Assess the Current Situation, Shall We? appeared first on Trading with The Fly.

12 May 16:15

Amazon ‘Becoming Fashionable,’ Says Morgan Stanley; 20% Apparel Share by 2020?

by Tiernan Ray
nathan.greenwald

amazon eats everyone

Following a report late yesterday by Cowen & Co.’s John Blackledge saying that Amazon.com (AMZN) will displace Macy’s (M) as the top apparel retailer next year, Morgan Stanley’s Brian Nowak today weighs in on the matter, writing that the company is already the second-largest apparel retailer, with 7% of the market, and that “now, Amazon is becoming faashionable,” too, meaning, it is having success with “high-end apparel." “We estimate Amazon will reach 19% share of the U.S. apparel market by 2020,” writes Nowak, who has an Overweight rating on the stock, and an $800 price target. The company is already 34% of U.S. online apparel retail, he observes. Nowak cites data from a Morgan Stanley survey of consumers, which reveals that "20% of U.S. consumers are "frequently" buying clothes on Amazon, with shoppers buying a wide range of items including casual tops/bottoms (44%+ of shoppers), "partywear" tops (36%), and dresses (27%)." Nowak offers the survey data in the following infographic (click on the image to see it larger):
01 Apr 15:55

The Walking Dead: Anarchy, State, and Zombie Dystopia

by Timothy Sandefur

Now closing its sixth season, AMC's The Walking Dead has received the highest ratings of any cable drama ever, and its writing and acting have been showered with awards. That's impressive, given that the series is also a deadly serious examination of the nature of political society and the virtues necessary to sustain it.

The series begins, appropriately enough, with what Albert Camus called the only genuine philosophical problem: Why not commit suicide immediately? In one early episode, the survivors of the zombie apocalypse are trapped in a lab that's set to self-destruct by a scientist who, unable to pursue his research further, prefers death to a world without hope of cure or rescue. "Wouldn't it be kinder? More compassionate, to just hold your loved ones and wait for the clock to run down?" he asks. The show's central character, Rick Grimes, refuses. "All we want," he says, is "a choice. A chance."

Another character, Andrea, prefers to remain and die, but is forced against her will to escape. For the rest of her life, she resents her rescuer. "I chose to stay," she tells him. "If I decided that I have nothing left to live for, who the hell are you to tell me otherwise? I wanted to die my way, not torn apart by drooling freaks. That was my choice. You took that away from me."

In a later episode, Andrea falls in with a larger community led by a psychotic despot called The Governor. When Rick's followers discover that The Governor plans to attack them, they implore Andrea to assassinate him, but when the moment comes, she holds back and is captured. She dies, as she feared, at the hands of a monster.

Her fate might seem conventional for post-apocalyptic literature: a tragic instance of harsh life after society's collapse. But it is actually just one manifestation of The Walking Dead's most distinctive characteristic: its basic belief that civilization and its virtues are not merely doomed, but fundamentally misguided. Where most post-apocalyptic stories portray civilized virtues in nostalgic terms—to show the value of cooperation, gentleness, progress, and law by imagining their absence—The Walking Dead is skeptical, if not downright cynical, about political society and the good life it makes possible.

From The Governor's tyranny to a hospital controlled by cops who have turned pirate, to Terminus—a society of cannibals whose motto is "You're either the butcher or the cattle"—every community Rick's group of nomads encounters turns out to be corrupt, compromised, or contemptible, and the foundations of city life—from religion to agriculture to the pursuit of happiness—are treated as delusions. Andrea's weakness, for instance, is not that she's a coward—she's not—but that she values the the pursuit of happiness more than mere survival. "Every one of us has suffered," she tells The Governor's followers at one point. "So what do we do? We dig deep, and we find the strength to carry on. We work together, and we rebuild. Not just the fences, the gates, the community, but ourselves, our hearts, our minds." That idealism proves her fatal flaw.

To the degree that The Walking Dead does respect the city, its ideal is Sparta, not Athens. The creativity, innovation, democracy, and joy that the Greeks saw as proof of Athena's favor are treated here as petty distractions from the bloody trials of "real" life. The series prefers the aristocratic values of warlord societies: violence, hierarchy, cleverness, honor, and physical labor. The characters never create, they rarely sing, and the only books they read are Tom Sawyer and the Bible. Their highest virtue is loyalty. Their worst sin is being slow on the trigger. 

The Walking Dead's Nietzschean indictment of bourgeois decadence begins with its scorn for religion. Its subtle jabs at a faith whose God rose from the dead provide a clever indictment of the longing for immortality that often inspires humanity's worst. This is particularly effective in the episode "The Grove," which ingeniously satirizes the suicidal nihilism of holy warriors by portraying a traumatized teenager so infatuated with the notion that zombies are "happy" that she slices her own sister's throat. 

But the program goes further, criticizing not just supernaturalism but the very idea of a universal moral order. Its primary religious character, the priest Gabriel, is a coward, a hypocrite, and a traitor. Another, the physician Hershel, is more sympathetic, but his religion is regarded as at best obsolete, and often a source of gullibility. He keeps a barn full of zombies in hopes of finding a cure, thereby nearly killing everybody. Later, his failure to take simple precautions leads to a zombie outbreak that again costs almost everyone's lives. Captured by The Governor, he reverts to the same naiveté that destroyed Andrea: "Your people, our people," Hershel says, "we can find a way to live together." He, too, is brutally slaughtered.

The other characters live an almost wholly pragmatic existence, in which the closest approach to larger meaning is escorting the purported scientist Eugene to a place where he can save the world. Eugene is obviously a fraud, and when he confesses, it renders the group missionless. "There is no 'right' or 'wrong' way to exist" after the zombie disaster, writes New Mexico Highlands University English professor Brandon Kempner in The Walking Dead and Philosophy. The "one constant left is existing. Surviving."

Survival here means mere life, not human flourishing; to pursue happiness is immature escapism. When the survivors seek shelter in an old prison, Hershel persuades Rick to give up his weapons and learn farming. He grows tomatoes, raises pigs, and briefly experiences a happiness he'd forgotten. But the swine soon contract a disease that infects the humans, and then The Governor attacks the prison, killing Hershel and many others. Time and again in later episodes, Rick curses himself for having beaten his pistol into a plowshare, however briefly. The other characters agree. "I saved you!" his son Carl shouts at him after they're forced to flee. "I didn't forget while you had us playing farmer. I still know how to survive. Lucky for us....You couldn't protect Hershel or Glenn or Maggie....You just wanted to plant vegetables. You just wanted to hide....You just hid behind those fences."

This accusation is revealing, because civilization ultimately depends on fences and on "playing farmer." In Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, historian Edward Gibbon contrasted the lifestyles of the "shepherd" and the "husbandman," arguing that while the farmer's "patient toil" is the basis of stable society, the "vagrant tribes of hunters and shepherds, whose indolence refuses to cultivate the earth, and whose restless spirit disdains...confinement" generate instead "the fierce and cruel habits of a military life." Two centuries later, the philosopher Jacob Bronowski agreed: "Civilization can never grow up on the move," he wrote. "The largest single step in the ascent of man is the change from nomad to village agriculture." But The Walking Dead's characters learn to disdain patient husbandry as a superficial indulgence, and choose a life of roaming and the Will to Power. The show's use of a prison as the site for this lesson symbolically underscores its view that peaceful productivity is only a kind of "confinement."

Rick shows he's learned that lesson in a later season, when the group reaches an oasis in Alexandria, Virginia. An experimental housing community designed to be self-sustaining, Alexandria generates its own solar electricity and running water. The residents are wisely governed by a former congresswoman named Deanna, and they live a comfortable, even cultured existence, hosting dinner parties and making art. Deanna's architect husband even has plans for new construction. 

But for Rick and the others, this is only proof of the Alexandrians' pathetic softness. "I like it here," says Carl. "But they're weak. And I don't want us to get weak, too." Rick agrees. At first, this just seems a symptom of post-traumatic stress disorder: After a year among the zombies, it's hard readjusting to civilian life. But the episodes that follow take sides against the Alexandrians and their alleged flaccidity, and the series returns again to its critique of civilian life per se. Rick's followers conspire to overthrow Deanna, and when they learn that one of the townspeople is beating his wife, they don't bother with a trial: Rick tries to kill him in the street. When Deanna rushes to intervene, he pulls a gun on her. "You still don't get it," he sneers. "We know what needs to be done, and we do it." As he continues, the camera cuts away to one of Rick's followers, coolly shooting down zombies that bang on the city's walls. "We're the ones who live. You—you just sit and plan and hesitate. You pretend like you know, when you don't....You want to live? You want this place to stay standing? Your way of doing things is done....Starting right now, we have to live in the real world. We have to control who lives here."

Only one of Rick's followers resists his cynical call for military dictatorship: Michonne. Once a cultured socialite, Michonne is now a deadly swordswoman who joins Rick's group months before they reach Alexandria but misses the time when safety and comfort were possible. She is a modern version of Athena, the warrior goddess who in Aeschylus' Oresteia invents the city by chasing away the forces of revenge and instructing her people: "Here in our homeland, never cast the stones/that whet our bloodlust....Let our wars/rage on abroad...[but]/My curse on civil war." Rather than taking up arms within the city walls, Athena warns, citizens must respect "the majesty of Persuasion," which alone can bring peace and prosperity.

Unlike Athena, however, Michonne yields to Rick's muscular realism. When the Alexandrians meet to decide whether to exile him for his outburst, his followers agree to concoct a story to protect him. Michonne at first holds back. Why lie? she asks. The answer: "Because these people are children, and children like stories." She balks: Surely reason and persuasion would be better. But when Rick describes his plan to slit the leaders' throats if they rule against him, she falls silent. Her loyalty to him outweighs her belief in the well-ruled city.

If there were any doubt of the series' preference for Rick's warrior ethic, it's erased when a gang called the Wolves attacks Alexandria and Deanna concedes the foolishness of her peaceful ways. "They don't need me. What they need is you," she tells Rick. He outlines a new, austere regime that extinguishes the town's middle-class comforts: "We keep noise to a minimum. Pull our blinds at night. Even better, keep the lights out." The citizens bow to the alpha male, including Deanna's son, who confronts her angrily: "You're the reason we're so screwed! You made us this way! We were never safe here....You just wanted to dream!" Later in the series, the Alexandrians redeem themselves in Rick's eyes, but only through violence. They prove themselves worthy Spartans, rather than decadent Athenians.

This critique of modern civil society as a flimsy myth is not new, but the ferocity with which The Walking Dead advances it is unusual. Joseph Conrad expressed a similar attitude in the novel Heart of Darkness, presenting civilized society as a canvas stretched over a brutality too dreadful to acknowledge. The narrator, Marlow, searches the Congo for Mr. Kurtz, lauded in Europe as a shining symbol of humanitarian progress. What he finds is that the celebrated Kurtz is a madman whose sanguinary philosophy is scrawled at the bottom of his philanthropic manuscript: "Exterminate all the brutes!"

After tracking Kurtz down and witnessing his death, Marlow cannot bring himself to admit the reality behind the explorer's myth. Meeting Kurtz's fiancée back England, he can hear the man's final words echoing in his brain ("The horror! The horror!") but tells her instead, "The last word he pronounced was—your name." For a moment, he thinks the sky will fall on account of this lie, but it doesn't. He begins to wonder if perhaps it would fall if he told the truth. Walking out into London—"a city that always makes me think of a whited sepulcher"—Marlow concludes that civilization depends on the little lies we use to explain away an unspeakably violent reality.

A similar theme appears in John Ford's 1962 Western, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, in which John Wayne plays Tom Doniphon, the legendary white-hat gunslinger who rolls his eyes a bit at Jimmy Stewart's character, the bookish lawyer Ransom Stoddard. When the villain Liberty Valance (Lee Marvin) engages in one of his perennial raids on the town, Stoddard demands justice—but his law books are no match for Valance's pistol. Only Doniphon can protect the people, and particularly the lovely Hallie (Vera Miles). He destroys Valance, though Stoddard gets the credit.

Yet the film does not treat Stoddard with contempt. On the contrary: Ford recognizes that he represents the future. He alone can give Hallie and the townspeople the security and beauty they need to live the good life. In one eloquent scene, when Doniphon tries to impress Hallie with a cactus rose, Stoddard quietly asks, "Did you ever see a real rose?" Only the law, technology, irrigation, and agriculture Stoddard represents can give her that. He cannot defeat the lawless Valance—only Doniphon can—but, paradoxically, there is no room for Doniphon in the civilization Valance's death makes possible. Like Athena, Doniphon destroys the rule of power and establishes the rule of persuasion, but—also like Athena—he can afterward exist only in myth. As the film's most famous line puts it, "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

Conrad's and Ford's stories are fiction, but they reflect real history. What we know today as civilized society had its origins in the emergence of the burgher—in French, bourgeois—who lived in the walled cities of Europe during the Middle Ages. "The legal relations among the inhabitants of such places were normally governed by contract, rather than status," the libertarian scholar Tom G. Palmer writes in Realizing Freedom. "Legal equality and the rule of law developed in civil society." In that sense, civilization really is artificial: an artifact of human creation, established by burghers, whose social bonds were chosen and mutual rather than imposed and hierarchical. These were true social compacts. Palmer quotes the 13th century philosopher Brunetto Latini: "those who wanted to live by their own law and escape the force of evildoers grouped themselves together in one place and under one government. Thence they began to build houses and establish towns (viles) and customs and laws and rights (drois) which should be common to all the burghers (borgois) of the town." Like commerce and the arts, like intellectual specialization and technological progress, freedom itself is a child of the city.

These cities were not just new political institutions, but the birthplace of a new culture built around what the economic historian Deirdre McCloskey calls the bourgeois virtues. "The four classical pagan virtues are those of Odysseus," she writes, "prudence, temperance, justice, and courage." On the other hand, the bourgeois virtues, or mores, of city life, are those of Ben Franklin: enterprise, humor, respect, modesty, thrift, responsibility. These and other commercial virtues fostered not only economic expansion—credit, for instance, depends on the mores of trust and responsibility—but also social change, as European and American society came to reward innovation, creativity, comfort, and trade. "Ordinary conversation about innovation and markets became more approving," McCloskey writes. "The high theorists were emboldened to rethink their prejudice against the bourgeoisie." 

Hollywood once celebrated the bourgeois values—particularly in Westerns. As Henry Fonda shouts just before the gunfight in My Darling Clementine, "I'm givin' you a chance to submit to proper authority!" But the neo-Western Walking Dead doubts that proper authority itself has a chance. Conrad and Ford thought bourgeois life a noble lie. The Walking Dead considers it a fatuous pretense. This is not the orderly anarchy of libertarian theory, but the antisocial pessimism of a new Dark Age.

Or rather, Bronze Age. Like Friedrich Nietzsche, the program proclaims not only the death of God, but the resurgence of the ancient aristocratic virtues and the waning of the bourgeois virtues of commercial civilization. The program's qualms about modernity become clearest in the clash between its most Spartan character, Carol, and its closest attempt at a spokesman for bourgeois modernity, Morgan Jones. Like the women of the ancient Greek city, Carol is a laconic killer who interrupts the children's story time to teach them to use machetes. Morgan, by contrast, has devoted himself to a Zen philosophy of the absolute sanctity of life. His imprudent dogma, however, is only a strawman version of bourgeois virtue—another blind religious faith.

When Morgan captures a member of the Wolves and plans to convert him, Carol rushes to kill the prisoner. Morgan stops her, even as the Wolf calmly swears to murder everyone. "We can talk," says Morgan, as Carol waves a knife.

"No," she says. "This is over."

Morgan protests. "We can be better than them."

"We are better than them," Carol replies.

"Not if we kill," Morgan argues. "With life, there's possibility. Even if we never let him out."

"I'd get out," the Wolf interjects. "You should kill me. But you're all going to die."

Carol then demands of Morgan, "You tell me you're sure. You tell me you know what'll happen—how it'll go." These are reasonable questions, but the show's writers allow Morgan to answer only with silence.

Time and again, The Walking Dead dismisses the bourgeois virtues as superficial, caricatures them as foolish, or parodies them as neuroses. The result is a compelling drama of characters pushed to the limit, but one that also shuns the only shelter humanity has found against the forces of barbarism: the modern commercial city. 

What Aristotle said of Sparta and its admirers strikes with equal force against The Walking Dead's writers. "They commend the [Spartan] constitution, and praise the legislator for making conquest and war his sole aim," he wrote. But the Spartans "are not a happy people....The government of freemen is nobler and implies more virtue than a despotic government. Neither is a city to be deemed happy or a legislator to be praised because he trains his citizens to conquer…for there is great evil in this…. The legislator should direct all his military and other measures to the provision of leisure and the establishment of peace."

26 Aug 14:33

AN IBC SPECIAL COUNT DRACULA EDITION: Saying Goodbye to China

by Dr. Fly

This afternoon I visited a China antique shoppe in search for collectibles. As soon as I walked in the man who owned the store picked up the phone and started to argue with a customer, naturally about money. Inside of this den of inequity, I perused countless counterfeits and subpar goods, faux antiques and shit, of the first order.

Tonight, I preside over a coffin and in it is the entire country of China. Their indexes are sliding a calm and collective 4% tonight, a rather decent showing in comparison to last night’s -7.5% drubbing. Their index, mind you, is down 35% over the past month and it has a lot lower to go.

Why you ponder?

Because the entire dog-eating country is a fraud, corrupt vagrancy disguised as prosperity. These people haven’t the slightest idea what they’re doing. I entreat them to sell their US treasury holdings and use the proceeds to build ghost cities. But they won’t. Do you know why?

CURRENCY RESERVE STATUS.

The Empire of the United States doesn’t compete with any other nation. No one is able to hold a candle to us, due to fiscal and military supremacy. We are the greatest nation to have ever existed and our implosion will  cast tidal waves around the globe 10x over– with a pain that will be feared for thousands of years to come. People will one day talk about it and whisper the tales of when America went haywire, causing nightmares in small children and retarded adults.

Count Dracula Fly writes to you this evening to inform you that the market is irrevocably fucked for at least two years. Yes, we will play bounces and make some money on the long side  within the next week. But the great Chinese dragon is dead, leaving a trail of moronic US CEOs in their wake, scurrying about, trying to ponder how to meet earnings estimates for 2015.

They will not.

The deflation is real. Only a complete reset of the system will make things like they were. Until then, we’ll be stuck in a vortex that grinds us into flakes. Oddball currency crosses between the euro, dollar and yen will continue, assuring that a completely new set of speculators get fucked on a daily basis. The very best hedge fund managers will go away, like China, never to be heard from again. If you’re not careful and faithful to the “do no harm doctrine”, you too will be fucked, the reader, reduced to traveling hobo about the trains–begging for scraps of bread and hot water laced with hallucinogenics.

But you wait for the dip buying opp. In the meantime, the Chinese stock market experience will continue to delight the Devil, thrusting submentals into action in a purblindly and harmoniously methodical, intoxicating waltz, reminiscent of the actions of better men, American men, in 1929.

Morton’s fork.

Sleep well and good night.

27 Apr 04:57

Running With the Predators

by Heather Mac Donald

Running With the Predators

Liberal elites continue to condemn law enforcement and excuse inner-city crime.

Q. SAKAMAKI/REDUX
A December 2014 protest against the police in New York City

Starting in late summer 2014, a protest movement known as Black Lives Matter convulsed the country. Triggered by the fatal police shooting of a black teenager in Ferguson, Missouri, the movement claimed that blacks are still oppressed by widespread racism, especially within law enforcement. The police subject black communities to a gratuitous regime of stops and arrests, resulting in the frequent use of lethal force against black men, according to the activists and their media and academic allies. Indeed, America’s police are the greatest threat facing young black men today, the protesters charged. New York’s mayor Bill de Blasio announced in December that he worries “every night” about the “dangers” his biracial son may face from “officers who are paid to protect him.” Less than three weeks later, a thug from Brooklyn, inspired by the nationwide anti-cop agitation, assassinated two New York police officers.

The protest movement’s indictment of law enforcement took place without any notice of the actual facts regarding policing and crime. One could easily have concluded from the agitation that black and white crime rates are identical. Why the police focus on certain neighborhoods and what the conditions are on the ground were questions left unasked.

The year 2014 also saw the publication of a book that addressed precisely the questions that the Black Lives Matter movement ignored. Alice Goffman, daughter of the influential sociologist Erving Goffman, lived in an inner-city Philadelphia neighborhood from 2002 to 2008, integrating herself into the lives of a group of young crack dealers. Her resulting book, On the Run, offers a detailed and startling ethnography of a world usually kept far from public awareness and discourse. It has been widely acclaimed; a film or TV adaptation may be on the way. But On the Run is an equally startling—if unintentional—portrait of the liberal elite mind-set. Goffman draws a devastating picture of cultural breakdown within the black underclass, but she is incapable of acknowledging the truth in front of her eyes, instead deeming her subjects the helpless pawns of a criminal-justice system run amok.

At the center of On the Run are three half-brothers and their slightly older friend Mike, all of whom live in a five-block area of Philadelphia that Goffman names Sixth Street. Sixth Street, we are told, isn’t viewed as a particularly high-crime area, which can only leave the reader wondering what an actual high-crime area would look like. In her six years living there, Goffman attended nine funerals of her young associates and mentions several others, including one for “three kids” paid for by local drug dealers, eager to cement their support in the community.

Goffman contends that it is the legal system itself that is creating crime and dysfunction in poor black communities. Young men get saddled with a host of allegedly petty warrants for having missed court dates, violated their parole and probation conditions, and ducked the administrative fees levied on their criminal cases. Fearful of being rounded up under these senseless procedural warrants, they adopt a lifestyle of subterfuge and evasion, constantly in flight from an increasingly efficient and technology-enhanced police force. “Once a man fears that he will be taken by the police, it is precisely a stable and public daily routine of work and family life . . . that allows the police to locate him,” Goffman writes. “A man in legal jeopardy finds that his efforts to stay out of prison are aligned not with upstanding, respectable action but with being a shady and distrustful character.”

Goffman’s own material demolishes this thesis. On the Run documents a world of predation and law-of-the-jungle mores, riven with violence and betrayal. Far from being the hapless victims of random “legal entanglements”—Goffman’s euphemism for the foreseeable consequences of lawless behavior—her subjects create their own predicaments through deliberate involvement in crime.

In 2002, when Goffman began her acquaintance with Sixth Street, the half-brothers Chuck, Reggie, and Tim were 18, 15, and nine, respectively. All had different fathers by the same crack-addict mother, Miss Linda. Their Section 8–subsidized house reeked of vomit, alcohol, and urine; roaches and ants crawled over the inhabitants as well as the furniture; cat feces covered a kitchen corner. Chuck’s and Reggie’s arrest records had begun in their early teens; Tim would graduate from middle school to the juvenile courts when he turned 12. Fatherlessness is a virtually universal condition among the young men in Goffman’s tale, but gradations exist within it. Chuck’s father came around during his early years, which helps explain, says Chuck, “why [Chuck] knew right from wrong and his young brothers did not”—a poignant acknowledgment of the role of fathers in raising sons, even if its premise (that Chuck knows right from wrong) is questionable.

On Sixth Street, drug dealing is tantamount to a bourgeois occupation. Chuck complains that his middle brother, Reggie, lacks the patience for “making slow money selling drugs hand to hand.” Instead, Reggie favors armed robberies, to the admiration of his mother, Miss Linda. “He fearless,” she says. “A stone-cold gangster.” It would be a mistake, however, to think of drug dealing as a peaceful activity. Early on, a disgruntled supplier firebombs Chuck’s car. Chuck responds by shooting at the supplier’s home. In 2007, at the end of Goffman’s chronicle, Chuck is fatally shot in the head while standing outside a Chinese restaurant, one of three shootings that night in Philadelphia. The killer, Goffman writes, was “trying to make it at the bottom rung of a shrinking drug trade.”

Accompanying this drug-related violence is a more random violence that springs from dog-eat-dog exploitation and lack of impulse control. In an earlier incident, Goffman’s fourth main character, Mike, another crack dealer, is walking home one night with a large wad of cash from a dice game. An armed robber accosts him—presumably tipped off to Mike’s stash by the other players. Mike tries to pull his own gun but gets shot in the hip first. Several days later, Mike sees the gunman in a Buick and opens fire. Two days after that, Mike and his attacker drive past each other, guns blazing. Mike’s car takes seven bullets, and he starts wearing a bulletproof vest. During another dice game, a young thug from Sixth Street named Tino puts a gun to a fellow player’s head and demands his money. His target, Jay Jay, refuses, so Tino, who is high on PCP, kills him. Jay Jay’s fellow crew members take to driving up and down Sixth Street firing at residents. Chuck gets shot in the neck—this time, not fatally—and his friend Steve is hit in the thigh.

Ned, 43, supports himself in part by stealing credit cards and intercepting checks in the mail. When he and his girlfriend Jean, a crack addict, need money for property taxes, they lure a cousin of Reggie’s (Miss Linda’s second son) to their house with the promise of gossip about a former girlfriend. Waiting there is a man in a hoodie, who robs the cousin at gunpoint. The unintended punch line of the story: Ned and Jean also get income from working as foster-care parents, a fact that does not apparently give Goffman pause but that speaks volumes, sadly, about the quality of parenting in the area.

Theft is constant among Sixth Street residents. Mike invited a man he met in prison to play video games at his mother’s house. The guest steals the stereo, DVD player, and two TVs. Anthony, another Sixth Street resident, was thrown out by his mother for stealing from her purse. He was turned in to the police by neighbors on a warrant, after stealing their shoes. When he stayed at Miss Linda’s, he grumbled that he couldn’t save money because she would steal from him while he slept. Mike gives Anthony crack to sell, but he could not shoot his fellow dealers when they stole from him, since his usual whereabouts at night were widely known, making him an easy target. As a result, he was not a very effective drug dealer.

The characters’ mishaps often resemble farce. Reggie, on the run for a drug crime, takes refuge in his mother’s house. Miss Linda had instructed him to leave before midnight, but he falls asleep. When a SWAT team arrives, Miss Linda persuades them not to go upstairs, and Reggie jumps out the bedroom window and flees into the alley, like Cherubino leaping from the Countess’s window in The Marriage of Figaro. Mike gives himself a birthday party, and the guests start stealing liquor bottles. He sets up sentry on the windowsill, gun on his lap, threatening to pistol-whip the next guy who takes a bottle. But he, too, falls asleep, and a guest lifts a wad of cash from his pocket.

After the police find Reggie cowering in a shed one day, he is sent to the county jail. He wallows in self-pity because his Sixth Street male friends are not visiting him or putting money into his commissary account. “Niggas ain’t riding right! Niggas ain’t got no respect,” he complains to Goffman. “When I come home, man, I’m not fucking with none of these niggas. Where the fuck they at? They think it’s going to be all love when I come home, like, what’s up, Reggie, welcome back and shit . . . but fuck those niggas, man, they ain’t riding for me. I got no rap for them when I touch.”

The residents’ chaotic sex lives generate further farcical situations—if one can overlook for a moment the consequences for their children. Virtually every male has a baby mom and a simultaneous collection of girlfriends; the females have children and their own series of boyfriends. After a prison term, Mike is sentenced to a halfway house in North Philly. He starts sleeping with a caseworker there named Tamara. Mike violates curfew and winds up back in prison. He tries to ensure that Tamara’s visits are on different days from those of Marie, the baby mom of his two children. One day, however, Tamara shows up unexpectedly, “ostensibly,” Goffman qualifies, to visit her inmate brother. Tamara sees Marie and Mike sitting across from each other and says hello. Marie sizes up the situation and announces loudly: “I ain’t drive five fucking hours for this shit.” Mike tries to quiet Marie down—like Don Giovanni trying to hush up Donna Elvira—but she retorts: “You fucked her, didn’t you.” Tamara announces loudly to her brother that she really likes Mike and hopes that he is not still messing with his baby mom, while Marie conspicuously plays with Mike’s hair. Mike starts talking loudly to cover up Tamara’s monologue to her brother while looking desperately at Goffman to rescue him. Marie stands up and leans in for a kiss, which Mike, cornered, supplies. Tamara ends up in tears.

But the sexual complications usually take on a more depressing aspect. At the hospital where Chuck has died after his head wound, his “on-again-off-again girlfriend,” Tanesha, shows up, but everyone wonders “where the hell Chuck’s baby-mom Brianna was.” Miss Linda asks Goffman to give the Pampers money, which the author had promised her, to Tanesha, who is looking after Chuck’s two daughters until Brianna can be located. This is not an arrangement likely to end well.

False incriminations are pervasive. When Mike was 24 and his children were three and six, he started dating a woman from North Philly named Michelle. He had high hopes for her, he tells Goffman, since, as a Puerto Rican, she should be more loyal than the “black chicks” who “love the cops” and turn in their boyfriends. Moreover, Michelle’s father and brothers sold drugs, so she was well accustomed to criminal proceedings. Michelle said that she loved Mike more than any man she had ever met, including her three-year-old’s father, then serving a ten-year federal prison sentence for an undisclosed crime. But Mike misses a court appointment, and a warrant issues for his arrest. The police find drugs and a gun in his apartment, which he tries to pin on Michelle and her father. The police show Michelle Mike’s statement against her, as well as his texts and phone calls to Marie that indicate that he is still involved sexually with his baby mom. Indignant, Michelle tells the police everything she knows about his drug dealing. Mike writes her from jail: “Don’t come up here, don’t write, don’t send no more money [this last mandate entailing heroic self-sacrifice, no doubt]. . . . You thought I wasn’t going to find out that you a rat? . . . Fuck it. I never gave a fuck about you anyway. You was just some pussy to me and your pussy not even that good!”

But Mike is the victim of double-crossing as well. He acts as godfather to a young, hoodie-wearing tough named Ronny, a close competitor to Miss Linda’s son Reggie for the status of Sixth Street’s most loathsome figure. Ronny started carrying a gun at 13 and shot himself in the leg while boarding a bus at 15. He periodically gets kicked out of school for such offenses as hitting his teacher and trying to steal his principal’s car. He brags to Goffman that he has slept with women older than she (she was then 21). Most of his days are spent running from truant officers and serving suspensions. One night, when Ronny was 16, he and some Sixth Street associates try to break into a motorcycle store on the outskirts of Philadelphia to steal motorbikes. They fail to get in to the store and, when their Pontiac doesn’t start, are unable to make their getaway. Ronny calls Goffman and Mike at 2 AM to pick him up. (Mike is, at that point, living in Goffman’s apartment, along with Chuck.) The silent alarm in the motorcycle dealership has already alerted the police. They arrest Ronny and Mike, and in the stationhouse, Ronny falsely incriminates Mike as the mastermind behind the break-in. The police let Ronny go and charge Mike with attempted breaking and entering. Mike spreads the word that Ronny is a snitch. Eager to redeem his reputation, Ronny burgles a house in Southwest Philly with Mike’s gun and pays Mike’s bail with the proceeds from the stolen TV, stereo, and jewelry.

This lawlessness cascades into the legal economy as well. Health-care workers steal antibiotics and medical supplies from their employers to provide to their fugitive friends who are fearful of being apprehended at a hospital. University of Pennsylvania law professor Regina Austin has approvingly referred to such “pilfering employees [who] spread their contraband around the neighborhood” as occupying the “good middle ground between straightness and more extreme forms of law-breaking.”

Goffman looks at this unending stream of lawless behavior and sees only the helpless pawns of a mindlessly draconian criminal-justice system: “Since the 1980s, the War on Crime and War on Drugs have taken millions of Black young men out of school, work, and family life, sent them to jails and prisons, and returned them to society with felony convictions.” Actually, it is these men’s own consistently bad decisions that remove them from lawful society. “Felony convictions” do not simply fall from the sky; they result from serious criminal activity—and persistence at criminal activity, at that—required to induce a district attorney actually to seek a felony charge and possibly a trial. If any of Goffman’s subjects made a disciplined effort at “school, work, and family life,” she forgot to include that detail.

Revealingly, Goffman explains how she arrived at her incongruous interpretation of Sixth Street’s malaise. As a graduate student at Prince-ton, she had been casting about for a theme for her still-growing ethnographic material. Princeton was a “hotbed” of mass-incarceration theory, she says, which holds that American prison practices have “cease[d] to be the incarceration of individual offenders and [have become] the systematic imprisonment of whole groups,” in the words of sociologist David Garland. Eureka! Under the tutelage of Bruce Western and other criminal-justice critics (and with obvious influence from the writings of Michel Foucault), Goffman comes to see that her “project could be framed as an on-the-ground look at mass incarceration and its accompanying systems of policing and surveillance. I was documenting the massive expansion of criminal justice intervention into the lives of poor Black families in the United States.”

Yet Goffman’s material refuses to conform to this template. To her credit, she devotes a chapter to “clean people”—individuals who have no dealings with the criminal-justice system. A group of young men on Sixth Street try to steer as clear as possible from the “dirty people.” They remain at home at night, playing video games together. They drink beer, rather than smoke marijuana, because there are drug tests at their jobs, which include security guard, maintenance man, and convenience-store clerk. If they lose their jobs, they don’t start dealing drugs; they rely on friends and family until they find another position. When they break traffic laws, they pay off their fines and recover their driving licenses before they start driving again. Their unassuming rejection of criminality comes as an enormous relief after the squalid behavior of Goffman’s closest associates. Their respect for the law should be celebrated and studied, as Robert Woodson has long advocated.

Remarkably, however, Goffman tries to shoehorn even these law-abiding individuals into her mass-incarceration framework, resulting in the most incoherent passage in the book: “In a community where only a few young men end up in prison, we might speak of bad apples or of people who have fallen through the cracks,” she writes. “Given the unprecedented levels of policing and imprisonment in poor Black communities today, these individual explanations make less sense. We begin to see a more deliberate social policy at work. In that context simply bearing witness to the people who are avoiding the authorities and the penal system seems worth a few pages. The people featured here are all, in a variety of ways, leading clean lives in a dirty world. In so doing, they demonstrate that the criminal justice system has not entirely taken over poor and segregated Black neighborhoods like Sixth Street, only parts of them.”

It would be more accurate to say that the clean people demonstrate that lawless behavior and moral breakdown have “not entirely taken over poor and segregated Black neighborhoods like Sixth Street.” The fact that the criminal-justice system distinguishes people who break the law from those who do not shows precisely that “individual explanations” for who gets incarcerated are accurate, not mystifying. The clean people do not run from the police because they are not wanted by the police. Even more absurd is Goffman’s ascription of a “deliberate social policy” of oppression to the prosecution of crime. If such a policy existed, there would be no reason to make exceptions for anyone.

Goffman’s thesis that the supervision of offenders creates more crime also lacks support in her reportage. She claims that the enforcement of warrants for missed court dates, probation violations, and unpaid court fees drives the Sixth Street drug dealers and thieves underground, preventing them from joining the “clean” world. But she never reveals why her subjects miss their court dates. Do those court obligations inflexibly interfere with job schedules in the legal economy? She would have said so. Instead, these drifting drug dealers most likely simply lack the organization and will to make their court appointments. Goffman herself notes that many a Sixth Street resident who blamed his joblessness on his fugitive status made no effort to find work when he had no outstanding warrants. As for testing dirty for drugs in violation of parole or probation conditions, no one forces a parolee to take drugs. Goffman gives us no reason to think that these thugs would behave better with less supervision; nor does she suggest what a court’s response should be when they go AWOL. (UCLA professor Mark Kleiman advocates the use of “flash incarceration” for parole and probation violations—short stays in a local jail, rather than prison, swiftly meted out. It is not clear that such an option was not available to Philadelphia prosecutors and judges. In any case, flash incarceration possesses little deterrent value for seasoned criminals.)

Goffman’s most persuasive critique of the justice system is that court fees are imposed on defendants who lack the means to pay them, resulting in a vicious cycle of judgments for nonpayment and further warrant enforcement and incarceration. (A U.S. Justice Department report, written in the aftermath of the police shooting of Michael Brown last August, lodged this complaint against Ferguson, as well, and it is a growing focus of academic attention.) Here, too, though, Goffman shows no instance of someone making a good-faith effort to pay his fees. While her young men are not prosperous, she mentions Mike’s sizable collection of worldly possessions, which include cars, motorbikes, sneakers, speakers, jewelry, and CDs. Some men may indeed lack the resources to pay their court fines, in which case the system is self-defeating; but it is also quite possible that they choose to spend their money on other things, such as drugs and sneakers.

On the Run unwittingly demonstrates why police presence is heavy in black inner-city neighborhoods. Goffman mentions just one fatal police shooting: Anthony had shot at undercover officers in an alley, thinking that they were gang rivals; they returned fire and killed him. Otherwise, and contrary to the claims of the Black Lives Matter movement, her young black men overwhelmingly die at one another’s hands, such as a friend of Chuck’s, shot while exiting Goffman’s car outside a bar. The clean people of Sixth Street do not complain about the police; indeed, Miss Linda’s father, a retired postal clerk, regularly calls the cops on his grandsons and welcomes the heavy police activity in the neighborhood. Even the Sixth Street criminals try to get themselves arrested when the local gang violence becomes too hot; prisons and jails are the only place they feel safe.

Goffman claims to have witnessed officers beating up suspects 14 times in 18 months of daily observation and asserts that the Philadelphia Police Department has an official, if sub rosa, policy of pummeling suspects who so much as put a finger on an officer. She also claims, without a source, that the cops routinely steal cash during drug raids. (She doesn’t mention the alleged deficiencies in the department’s deadly force training, for which it is criticized in another recent Justice Department report, which also noted that black and Hispanic officers were far more likely than white officers to shoot black civilians based on a mistaken perception of threat.) Such brutality and corruption, if true, must be punished and eradicated. (One should note, though, in assessing Goffman’s credibility in such matters, that her loathing of the police is such that she develops a fear of white men in particular, and white people more generally.) But such police misconduct, if it exists—as it did in North Charleston, South Carolina, where Walter Scott was shot to death in wholly unjustified circumstances—does not mean that lawful police activity is any less needed in neighborhoods still plagued by violence and other forms of disorder. Philadelphia’s high crime rate has been a perennial drag on its economy. Data-driven policing and the incarceration buildup that Goffman and her mentors so decry resulted nationally in the steepest crime drop in modern history (especially in New York), saving countless inner-city lives, both clean and dirty. At the end of the book, Reggie and Tim are serving long prison sentences. We have no reason to believe that those punishments were not deserved.

It is remarkable enough that Goffman, seeing the lawless behavior of Sixth Street’s “dirty people,” still views them as helpless victims of a racist criminal-justice system. She has clearly been captured by her subjects. After Chuck is killed, she chauffeurs Mike around the neighborhood, Glock in his lap, as he seeks to find and gun down the murderer. She feels “ashamed and sorry” about being white, when Miss Linda’s extended family complains about there being a white girl in their midst. (Such pervasive antiwhite antagonism is perhaps the best-kept secret about black inner-city culture.) Goffman refuses to give the police information about the crimes she has witnessed.

But it is even more remarkable that so many influential readers have bought Goffman’s thesis that law enforcement is the predominant source of trouble in her subjects’ lives. Journalist Malcolm Gladwell, lauding the book in The New Yorker, draws the conclusion that the criminal-justice system blocks black criminals and their progeny from entering the middle class, unlike its earlier treatment of the Mafia. Harvard’s Christopher Jencks, writing in The New York Review of Books, rues the “terrible collateral damage inflicted on the young black men of Sixth Street by their interminable struggle with the police”—echoing Goffman’s contention that such struggles simply happen, rather than being the result of voluntary behavior. Like Goffman, her well-placed readers focus on the consequences of crime for the criminal and ignore the crime itself. On the Run could have been a needed corrective to the post-Ferguson conceit of a racist justice apparatus arbitrarily descending on helpless black communities. But it is not being received that way. Instead, the book’s reception has demonstrated how ineradicably committed liberal elites are to the belief in black victimhood. And that belief, continuously fed to the street by the advocates and the media, means that police-community relations in New York and other American cities will continue to be fraught with tension and danger.

Heather Mac Donald is a contributing editor of City Journal and the Thomas W. Smith Fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

24 Apr 22:11

Libertarians Are the WEIRDest People in the World

by Ronald Bailey

LibertarianPorcupineWEIRD is the acronym three social psychologists devised to describe people living in Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic societies. In 2010, the trio—Joseph Henrich, Steven J. Heine, and Ara Norenzayan, all based at the University of British Columbia—reviewed decades of behavioral science research and concluded that "members of WEIRD societies, including young children, are among the least representative populations one could find for generalizing about humans." Scientists, they concluded, "need to be less cavalier in addressing questions of human nature on the basis of data drawn from this particularly thin, and rather unusual, slice of humanity."

One big distinction between WEIRD people and the rest of humanity, they argued, is a tendency to think analytically instead of holistically. Broadly speaking, holistic thinking is oriented toward context, preferring to predict behavior using situations and circumstances. Analytic thinking detaches objects from contexts, preferring to use categorical rules to explain and predict behavior. The research the trio referenced included a 2001 study in which American and Japanese subjects were shown a photograph of a wolf in a forest. The Americans were more likely to remember having seen the wolf even when it appears against a new background, such as a desert.

A 2010 paper in Current Directions in Psychological Science argued that these distinct modes of thought stem from differences in social orientation. Every person can and does switch between these two modes of thought. But people are more likely to think analytically when their culture endorses "self-direction, autonomy, and self-expression" and views the self as "bounded and separate from social others." People tend toward holistic thinking when their culture supports an interdependent, connected view of the self and emphasizes fitting in and harmony more than self-expression.

Analytic thinking is prevalent in the West, but it isn't monolithic. A team of researchers associated with the New York University social psychologist Jonathan Haidt wondered if the distinction between holistic and analytic thinking might be relevant to America's notorious "culture war." The team including University of Virginia social psychologists Thomas Talhelm and Shigehiro Oishi, and Chinese psychologists Xuemin Zhang, Felicity Miao, and Shimen Chen report the results of five different studies in a recent for the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, "Liberals Think More Analytically (More 'WEIRD') than Conservatives."

The Haidt team notes that previous research usually did not pull apart the messy strands of economic and social politics that make up people's political identities. This leads to a problem they call the "libertarian exception." Libertarians have often been mixed in with conservatives, yet conservatives are the most socially interdependent group and libertarians are the least interdependent. "Because libertarians are so individualistic, they should be on the extreme analytic end of the spectrum," the researchers note. "Indeed, libertarians score the highest of any political group on a measure of 'systemizing' and the lowest on 'empathizing'. Mixing libertarian analytic thought with holistic conservative thought weakens the liberal-conservative differences."

To take account of libertarian thinking, the researchers separate "social politics," involving issues such as recreational drug use and gay marriage, from "economic politics," involving issues such as taxes and regulations. They found that differences in analytic versus holistic thinking account for differences in opinions over social issues, but not economic issues.

In the first study, university students were sorted by social politics on a seven-point scale ranging from very liberal to very conservative. They then were shown three items and asked to indicate which two of the three are most closely related. For example, they might see pictures of a scarf, a mitten, and a hand. Holistic thinkers tend to choose the more relational pairing (mittens are worn on hands), whereas more analytical thinkers tend to pair more categorically (the mitten and scarf are both winter clothing). Very liberal student participants choose relational pairings 61 percent of the time, while very conservative participants choose them 78 percent of the time.

Another study used Internet participants with a mean age of 35; it also included a libertarian option. It similarly found a distinction between liberal and libertarian analytic thinking and conservative holistic thinking, but all three groups tended to be more analytic than the college students. About 35 percent of very liberal participants chose relational pairings, compared to 45 percent of very conservative ones.

Interestingly, when the researchers did not separate social and economic politics, libertarians were the most analytic group and moderates were the least. "Consistent with their creed that people should stick to their own business and not interfere with the lives of others," the researchers wrote, "libertarians thought more like individualistic Westerners than collectivistic Easterners."

The researchers also went to China to test their social orientation hypothesis. They already knew that Mainland Chinese tended to score on the holistic end of the spectrum, but they wanted to see if differences in thinking styles had emerged in a rapidly urbanizing population. They asked Chinese university students at six sites to do a triad task like the one from the first study.

The political spectrum among the Chinese subjects ran from very liberal to slightly conservative. Liberal participants paired the objects relationally 70 percent of the time, while slightly conservative ones did so 79 percent of the time. Compare this to very liberal American students, who paired relationally 61 percent of the time, whereas very conservative Americans did it 78 percent of the time. So both Chinese and American conservatives have about the same tendency to think holistically. [Note, though, that the Chinese 78 percent were slightly conservative and the American 78 percent were very conservative.]

Next, the researchers wanted to see if a bit of "thought training" might change the subjects' orientation. In this experiment, American university students were once again sorted by social politics and economic politics. Then they were told to classify objects—say, a janitor, a mop, and a jackhammer—by either abstract categories or relational condition. The students then read purported news articles, one opposed to welfare programs and another opposed to mainstreaming special education students. Note that welfare spending in the U.S. is a partisan issue, whereas mainstreaming is far less so.

The scientists predicted that the analytic version of the task would push people to form more liberal opinions and that the holistic training would induce them to generate more conservative opinions. The thought training manipulation produced just that result. "If this were a vote, the liberal [welfare] plan would have won after we had people think analytically (64 percent support) and lost after we had people think holistically (38 percent)," they report. The mainstreaming article had no effect on political orientation.

Finally, the Haidt team did a similar thought training study using university students and visitors to YourMorals.org. Participants sorted by social and economic political views once again were instructed to classify items either relationally or categorically. Afterward, they read two fabricated news stories, one proposing to send convicted drug users to college for free and another advocating free trade. In this case, 52 percent of holistically manipulated participants would have supported sending convicted drug users to college, whereas 70 of the analytically thought-trained would have done so. The "training" had no effect on responses to the free trade article, a result that fits the earlier findings that cultural thought style is more strongly related to social politics than economic politics.

The researchers conclude that conservatives and liberals really do think about the world as though they come from different cultures. The obvious resolution to this conflict is for American liberals and conservatives to join with their libertarian comrades and think even more WEIRDly about freedom.

10 Jan 00:36

[Eugene Volokh] The government as trademark troll: Union County (N.J.) hit with $40K bill in First Amendment case

CountyOfUnionSeal

In May, I blogged about how Union County (N.J.) tried to get a critic of the County government to stop using the County seal on her blog. The trouble was that the County claimed that the blogger (Tina Renna) violated a registered trademark, and U.S. trademark law expressly prevents local government seals from being registered trademarks; and, more broadly, neither the federal trademark law nor the New Jersey criminal law that the County cited actually applied here. Whoops!

So Renna won — and now a Magistrate Judge has recommended that the County be ordered to pay Renna $39,500 in legal fees and $500 in court costs. A winning party in trademark cases can generally recover attorney fees only if the case is “exceptional,” but the magistrate concluded that this was indeed an exceptional case (Renna v. County of Union (D.N.J. Jan. 7, 2015), some paragraph breaks added):

After considering the totality of the circumstances, the Court concludes that this case is “exceptional.” Arguably, Defendant [Union County] legitimately believed that the Seal warranted the same protection as a legally protected mark. Still, there is a significant disparity in the merits of the parties’ respective litigation positions in this case. The record demonstrates that Defendant litigated this case by asserting that Plaintiff violated a registered trademark, which Defendant knew, or should have known, did not exist. If Defendant was not aware of that fact when it sent the First Letter, it is reasonable to expect Defendant to have been aware of it by the Second Letter, and surely by the time Plaintiff commenced this litigation. Nonetheless, the Defendant, as the District Court described it, “doubled down” and continued to assert trademark violations based largely on federal and state statutes that, by their terms, did not provide trademark protection for the Seal.

The District Court did not find that Defendant acted in bad faith, fraudulently, or maliciously; nor does this Court. But the more flexible standard under Octane Fitness and Fair Wind Sailing makes clear that is not a sine qua non of the exceptionality analysis. It is enough to conclude, as this Court does, that there is a significant disparity in the merits of the parties’ respective positions, and that certain of Defendant’s positions were objectively unreasonable. First, as the District Court noted, Defendant relied on the Lanham Act despite the fact that Section 2(b) of the Act makes clear that insignia such as the Seal “shall be refused registration.” Defendant also relied on N.J.S.A. 56:3–13–2(c), which similarly does not permit registration of official insignia such as the Seal, even after the USPTO had denied trademark registration for the Seal.

Second, as the District Court noted, the Second Letter “carried the misleading implication that [the Seal was trademarked when] the opposite was the case.” Indeed, when Defendant sent the Second Letter, the USPTO had denied Defendant’s trademark application, and issued a Notice of Abandonment because Defendant did not timely appeal the USPTO’s denial.

Third, as the District Court emphasized, it is “hard to discern any purpose, other than general intimidation, for [Defendant's] citation of [a] criminal statute in an official communication to a citizen, even one represented by counsel.” That is particularly true considering that N.J.S.A. 52:2–4 refers to the Great Seal of New Jersey, not the Seal of Union County, which is at issue here.

These factors collectively persuade the Court that Defendant pursued this matter by sending the letters to Plaintiff and maintaining its position in this litigation through summary judgment motion practice, despite ample notice that the Seal could not be trademarked. As a result, the Court will award Plaintiff’s attorneys fees and costs ….








05 Dec 21:26

How Low Can Oil Prices Go?

by Ronald Bailey

Pro FrackingThe price of oil in global markets has plunged by nearly 40 percent over the past six months. As a result, the price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. has dropped from an average of $3.68 in June to $2.74 this week. In June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration had projected that a gallon of gas would average $3.48 per gallon this month. What happened, and where might oil prices go in the next two to five years?

What's going on is that the world is awash in crude oil while the world economy is slowing down. Demand for crude has dropped, yet supplies are increasing; the predictable result is lower prices. A huge part of the glut in global production stems from the fracking boom in the United States that has seen domestic oil production rise from a low of 5 million barrels per day in 2008 to over 9 million barrels per day in November.

Over the Thanksgiving holiday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declined, reportedly at the behest of Saudi Arabia, to reduce its members' production. Some analysts have suggested that this strategy aims to keep global oil prices low with the goal of killing off fracking in the United States and preventing the drilling technique's spread to other parts of the world. It costs less than $10 per barrel to get oil out of the ground in most Middle Eastern countries, whereas production costs hover around $65 per barrel for U.S. fracked wells.

Oil Price Chart December 2014

Michael Lynch, an analyst at Strategic Energy and Economic Research, thinks this strategy is unlikely to work. Lynch estimates that most fracked wells in the U.S. break even below $60, although sustained lower prices will likely cut future drilling investment by 10 to 15 percent. But even that has upside because slackening demand for drilling rigs and crews will lower the costs for new fracked wells. In addition, technological improvements are generating something like an annual 10 to 20 percent reduction in fracking costs and offsetting increases in production. In any case, owners will pump oil from wells already drilled as long as production covers their variable costs.

Lynch argues that during the first decade of this century, oil prices were affected by the perceived threat to production capacity caused by strife in places like Iraq, Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela. In effect, purchasers paid a security premium. He now believes, despite the continuing turmoil in the Middle East, that the geopolitical risk premium has abated somewhat. If that's true, leading technologically savvy private oil companies might be enticed back into certain oil-rich hellholes to rescue their heroically mismanaged petroleum fields. The sad fact is that nearly 80 percent of the world's oil reserves are in the hands of government-owned companies. It's not too far-fetched to believe that, if properly handled, the combined additional production from Libya, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, South Sudan, and Mexico might amount to an extra 10 to 15 million barrels per day. 

In the meantime, budget shortfalls stemming from lower oil prices might encourage unsavory petro-state regimes—Russia, Venezuela, Iran—to be more tractable. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund estimates that lower oil prices will goose U.S. economic growth from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent next year.

During the last decade, even as alarums about the advent of "peak oil" grew ever more frenzied, world oil production actually increased from 77.6 million barrels per day in 2003 to 86.8 million barrels per day in 2013. Lynch's book The "Peak Oil" Scare and the Coming Oil Flood, scheduled for publication this coming spring, predicts even larger leaps in the global production of crude. Lynch thinks world oil production will increase to around 110 million barrels per day during the next decade. In the meantime, global oil prices will hover around $60 per barrel over the next couple of years and conceivably drop to $40 per barrel in five years. At $40 per barrel, the price of oil would, in inflation-adjusted dollars, just about equal the annual average price of $17 per barrel in 1998.

I asked Lynch if this meant oil markets might be in for a replay of the price collapse that occurred in the 1980s. He replied that he thought so. In inflation-adjusted dollars, the price of oil reached its peak annual average of $106 per barrel in 1980 and then collapsed to an annual average of $30.80 per barrel in 1986.

Another factor to consider when attempting to project future prices is that demand for oil appears to have peaked in the United States and Europe. This is due in large part to the recent period of sustained high prices that encouraged drivers to buy more energy-efficient vehicles and to conserve the amount of fuel they burned. U.S. gasoline consumption peaked at 142 billion gallons in 2007 and has since fallen by 6 percent to 135 billion gallons in 2013. In the European Union, transport fuel consumption has fallen by 8.4 percent since peaking in 2007. In addition, the total estimated vehicle-miles traveled by Americans has dropped by more than 2 percent since 2007. (Lynch muses that low oil prices may mean we'll "see the death of the electric car" once again.) Finally, if the big industrial countries do get serious in the next decade or so about cutting carbon emissions, that too will tank demand for oil.

In other words, oil consumption may well eventually peak. But not because we ran out of the stuff.

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18 Aug 16:27

Are Millennials Far Left on Economics? No.

by Emily Ekins

In response to Robert Draper’s New York Times Magazine piece on the potential for a libertarian moment, there has been much debate over where exactly young people stand on economic issues. Critics relying largely on one or two data points have tended to prematurely declare young people staunch economic liberals (e.g. here, here, here, and here). However, millennial attitudes are just not that simple; in particular they are not economic leftists as some have claimed.

Instead, Reason-Rupe's latest study of the millennial cohort shows they are socially liberal, are averse to many nanny state regulations, and are fiscal centrists

As I wrote in our July report:

"Findings from the Reason-Rupe 2014 Millennial Survey of young Americans 18-29 reveal this cohort flouts traditional political allegiances: They trust neither political party, are social liberals and fiscal centrists, and are supportive of both business and government. They favor free markets, but aren’t sure whether markets or government best drive income mobility. In all, millennials are neither a Democratic nor a Republican generation; they remain politically unclaimed."

What makes this generation particularly notable is that they don’t conform to conventional political stereotypes. In particular, their increased social liberalism has not gone in lockstep with economic liberalism.

To this point, Thomas Edsall in the New York Times citing a recent Pew survey observes the "emergence of a cohort of younger voters who are loyal to the Democratic Party, but much less focused on economic redistribution than on issues of personal and sexual autonomy." Edsall cites an email exchange with Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, in which Kohut further explains, "There is a libertarian streak that is apparent among these left-of-center young people. Socially liberal but very wary of government."

Looking at the millennial cohort broadly, as I will detail below, we find millennials are similar to older cohorts across a number of economic issues, are favorable toward business and profit, and are growing increasingly concerned about government efficacy. Pew finds millennials are more likely to favor more services with a larger government than fewer services with a smaller government. However once tax rates are taken into consideration support flips and millennials prefer smaller government. Perhaps an issue of old Cold War semantics, millennials appear less likely to associate the "size" of government with costs. 

1. Business and the Safety Net The Pew Research Center finds that even though millennials are much more socially liberal, "[Millennial] views are not particularly distinctive in other areas, such as attitudes about business and the social safety net" (p. 63).

Business and Regulation

The charts on the right show that millennials are similar to older cohorts on Pew’s Business Attitudes Index. Pew also found that millennials are actually more likely than older cohorts to agree "corporations generally strike a fair balance between making profits and serving the public interest," compared to older cohorts.

Moreover, aggregating polls from Pew, National Journal, and the Public Affairs Council shows that young people are about equally likely as older people to say "government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest." (See chart).

If millennials had veered hard left economically we would have observed them becoming less friendly to business and more supportive of regulation, compared to older cohorts, yet we have not. Instead Reason-Rupe finds millennials have favorable views of business, profit, competition and entrepreneurship. In addition, two-thirds perceive government regulators to place special interests above the public’s.

Safety Net

When it comes to the social safety net, millennials support it. But Pew finds little evidence that millennials are more supportive than older cohorts: writing that millennials are "not particularly supportive of an expanded social safety net" (p.76). Indeed, the chart (right) shows similar shares of millennials, GenXers, and Boomers agree "government should help more needy people even if it means going deeper into debt."

Moreover, even as Reason-Rupe found strong millennial support for government guarantees, similar questions asked of a national sample find older and younger Americans are equally supportive. For instance, take this April 2012 Pew Survey, accessed via the Roper Center (above). Were millennials staunch economic liberals, they would be more supportive of the social safety net compared to older cohorts, yet they are not.

2. Government Efficacy In areas that Pew finds millennials are distinct, typically about government efficacy, we find they are becoming more like older cohorts and that support declines when considering costs. If millennials were veering leftward on economics, we would not expect an increase in government skepticism among millennials, or such a strong reaction to taxes.

Efficiency

For instance, in 2009 Pew found only 42 percent of millennials agreed government was "inefficient and wasteful." But by 2014 using the exact same wording as Pew, Reason-Rupe found this number increased to 66 percent. In fact, something similar happened for GenXers as well. In the early 90s Pew found only about 42 percent of GenX thought government was wasteful an inefficient, but that number increased to 55 percent by 2003.

Government Action 

Following a similar trend, a NBC/WSJ poll found in 2009 that 64 percent of 18-29 year olds wanted government to "do more to solve problems." By Jan 2010 Pew found this number had declined to 53 percent, and a CBS Feb 2013 poll found this number further declined to 41 percent.  Aggregating CBS, New York Times, NBC/WSJ, and Pew polls further shows the gap between young and old has narrowed on government taking action.

If millennials were economic leftists, we would not expect them to be trending away from wanting government to "do more."

Size of Government

In 2009 Pew found millennials were dramatically more supportive of a larger government than older cohorts (67 vs 41 percent). However, in 2011 Pew found support declined to 56 percent while older cohorts remained steady, and Reason-Rupe found 54 percent support for large government in 2014.

Once again, trending away from larger government is not unique to millennials. A majority (54 percent) of GenXers also preferred larger government in 1999, but by 2011 support declined to 45 percent, according to Pew.

In addition, given recent evidence that millennials may be less familiar with old language about the "size" of government, we asked two questions. The first being the standard question, the second also mentioning tax rates (see chart).

We find that support for large government flips when taxes are mentioned. In fact, 57 percent of millennials prefer a smaller government offering fewer services with low taxes to a larger government offering more services with high taxes (41 percent).

Demographics largely explain millennials' apparent preference for larger government: nonwhite Americans (who tend to favor larger government) comprise a larger share of millennials than of older generations. However, when taxes were mentioned, the race/ethnicity gap disappeared among Latino, Asian, and white millennials. This provides some evidence that different racial/ethnic groups' propensity to associate size of government with taxes may in part explain the apparent preference for larger government.

If millennials were strong economic liberals, it would be unlikely we'd observe such a strong attitude shift upon mentioning taxes associated with government services, nor for the gap to disappear among Latino, Asian, and Caucasian millennials. (Ideally, however, we'd like to have data on older cohorts to compare.)

Strong Government

In a national survey, Reason-Rupe finds millennials are no more likely than older Americans to favor a "strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems" (43 to 40 percent respectively). Instead, majorities of millennials and older people favor "a free market with less government involvement" to handle these problems (55 to 57 percent respectively).

What may partly explain millennials’ attitudes is that 58 percent say that government agencies "generally abuse their power" while only 25 percent think agencies "generally do the right thing."

3. Minimum Wage, Taxing the Wealthy If millennials were regular economic liberals, we’d also expect them to be more in favor of raising the minimum wage or raising taxes on the wealthy compared to older cohorts. Yet, we find they are similar to all Americans nationally.

For instance, Reason-Rupe’s millennials survey found 71 percent favor raising the minimum wage, compared to 67 percent of all Americans.  Similarly, Reason-Rupe found 66 percent of millennials think raising taxes on the wealthy would be good for the economy, just as 69 percent of all Americans favor raising taxes on the wealthy.

4. Social Security Millennials are supportive of reforming Social Security to allow younger workers to invest in private accounts (71 percent). A majority still favors (51 percent) even if it reduces benefits to current seniors. Similarly, Pew found 67 percent of all Americans also favor allowing younger workers invest in private accounts. However, if allowing younger workers to opt out of Social Security meant reduced benefits to seniors, only 38 percent of all Americans would favor while 55 would oppose, according to Reason-Rupe. Millennials’ willingness to cut entitlements simply doesn’t comport with strong economic liberalism.

5. Economic Attitudes Shift As Income Rises 

Millennials also become more fiscally conservative as they age, make more money, and learn they will become responsible for paying for things. In fact majorities begin to oppose income redistribution and increased spending on financial assistance to the poor, and support for government guarantees drops once millennials start making between $40K-60K a year. Moreover, as they roll off their parents' health insurance policies and begin paying for their own, they no longer are willing to pay more for insurance even "if it helped provide health insurance coverage for the uninsured," flipping from 57 percent in support to 59 percent opposed.

Strong economic liberals would have been willing to pay higher taxes even as they made more money to help the poor, yet millennials trend predictably rightward on these issues as their income rises.

It’s also important to note millennials are also more likely to say government has the responsibility to ensure everyone has access to health care coverage (54 percent vs 42 percent of older Americans).  But GenX was also more supportive when they were in their 20s and have since changed. A CBS/New York Times survey in 1996 found 75 percent of GenXers said government should "guarantee medical care for all people who don't have health insurance" compared to 60 percent of older Americans. However today, Pew finds 50 percent of GenX says it’s not government’s responsibility.

As we’ve highlighted before, millennials’ economic attitudes are a mixed bag, favoring more government action in some areas and less in others, which we detail in our reportpress release, and blog posts.

In sum, the overused claim that young Americans are strong economic liberals is simply exaggerated. Instead, as I argue in our 105-page report on millennials, they are strong social liberals and fiscal centrists who currently tend to base their political judgments largely on social issues rather than economics.

We also have little reason to expect millennials' levels of social tolerance to fade over time. However, as they age, make more money, get their first promotion, buy a house, get married, and have kids, there's reason to expect economics will exert greater influence over millennial attitudes, and they may respond as generations before them.

27 Jul 22:27

Learn.PokerNews Weekly: Survive Large Field Tourneys, Short Stacks, and Trouble Hands

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The Learn.PokerNews Weekly highlights both recent and previous strategy articles, series, and features of interest to poker players of all skill levels.

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24 Jul 20:08

Research Review |7.24.13 | Momentum Investing

by capspecwp
nathan.greenwald

Good relevant research summary

Momentum Has Not Been ‘Overgrazed’: A Visual Overview in 10 Slides Claude B. Erb | May 10, 2014 The return to “momentum” does not seem to be the victim of “overgrazing”. Conceptually, overgrazing occurs when too much capital chases too … Continue reading →
01 Apr 18:55

How to find new leadership

by Pradeep Bonde
Money finds new sectors to rotate in to during correction. That is what is happening right now.

Money has come out of  biotechnology , drug , China, and technology sector. Many of the stocks in these sector were up a lot in last six month , now they are having much needed correction. Some of them will go up again, some will never make it back to their high.

As a momentum trader and swing trader you have to look at where the new momentum leadership is developing. In any trading software it is not very difficult to do this.

In Telechart you can run a scan :

c/c10>=1.08 and minv3.1>100000 and c>5

Where
c= price today
c10= price 10 days ago
minv3.1= minimum volume in last 3 days as of yesterday

This gives you stocks that are up 8% plus in last 10 days. That gives you good idea of where money is flowing .

As a swing trader I look for 8 to 20% moves. This scan gives you stocks that in past 10 days had that kind of swing moves.

You can run a similar bearish scan :

c/c10<.92 and minv3.1>100000 and c>5

Besides the above two scan I also run a Dollar move in last 10 days scan to find stock up or down  at least 10 dollar. Higher priced stocks may not get captured in a 8% move scan, the dollar scan captures those movers.

If you go through stocks appearing in the two scans you can figure out where new leadership is no both bullish and bearish side.

www.stockbee.biz If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might be for you. One of the most recommended site for learning to trade. 2200 plus members and growing everyday... www.stockbee.biz
22 Mar 15:05

Mailbag: Big Pair, Everyone Calls

by foucault

Thinking Poker MailbagQ: I am an active live player who plays in local games in NYC. This hand was from a $1/$3 NLHE game 9 player table with mostly fairly loose players but they are quite competent for this level. Most hands are played with 3+ players although hands are rarely limped – mostly raised with about 10% 3-raises

In this hand I had just joined the game. Nearly all the the stacks were $300-$500+. The HJ was the short stack with $169. My first hand was UTG and I had KcKd. I opened $15 which was typical for this game with most open raises from 4X to 5X. Smaller open raises are treated as limps. There were six callers MP1, MP2 , MP4 ($650), HJ ($169), CO, & B.

FLOP JcTc6c

I bet $70. MP4 called; CO reraised all in to $169. I called $99. The MP4 called. All others folded.

TURN 5d

MP4 bet $200. I folded.

RIVER 2d

MP4 won $590 (approx.) with Ac3c.

Thanks for your opinion of this. To me the key problem with this hand or whenever I have AA,KK,QQ in UTG or UTG+1 is that often I will open and then have 5-6 callers which makes the hand difficult to play. The option is to limp and then reraise if possible which makes my hand open faced but does reduce the risk.

A: I hear some variation on this question quite often. People who play in exceedingly loose games often wonder about how to play big pairs against a field of callers. Their concern is similar to what’s expressed here: on the one hand, they believe that because the game is so loose they should raise very large and only with very strong hands. The result, however, is that people tend to play well against them post-flop because it’s usually pretty obvious that they have a big pair, and with so many people seeing the flop there’s a decent chance that an overpair will not be the best hand.

There are a lot of things you can do to make the best of this situation, and I’ll make some suggestions here in just a moment. There’s a big point I want to make up front, though: playing out of position is hard, and you aren’t supposed to be able to win big pots – or win at all – just because you have a big pair. Often the best possible outcome is to play a lot of medium pots that end (for you, anyway) pre-flop or on the flop, and to win more of them than you lose. But expect to sometimes stack off to better hands after the flop and sometimes fold the best hand. That’s part and parcel of playing out of position.

Anyway, on to the advice:

1. Raise bigger. Just because 4x or 5x is “typical for the game” doesn’t mean you have to do it too. The usual counterargument to this is “if I raise bigger, people will be suspicious and fold.” If you really believe that, then put your money where your mouth is and start 8x’ing it from  early position with 83o. The truth is that even if they’re suspicious, loose opponents aren’t going to fold TT or AJs even to a large raise. If they do, they’ll probably show you, which means that you’ll get a heads up that they are adapting and can change up your play accordingly.

Don’t misunderstand me here: you want to get called, even by six people, when you have KK in early position. You just want those six people to pay as much as possible for the privilege of seeing a flop against you. If a bigger raise results in getting called less often by suited connectors but playing bigger pots against broadway cards and pairs smaller than yours, that’s not such a bad result for you either.

2. Raise more hands. Your opponent’s looseness doesn’t mean that you have to tighten up. Just the opposite in fact. If people are going to call 30% of hands to an early position raise, then ATs is well ahead of their calling ranges and is well worth a raise. Putting money into the pot with the best hand is rarely a mistake, although raising with 87s in this same spot wouldn’t be such a good idea. This goes along with…

3. Balance. It’s a common misconception that balance doesn’t matter in loose or small stakes games. Although that can be true, the fact that our correspondent fears his hand will be obvious to his opponents suggests otherwise. The question to ask yourself is “What are they going to do about it?” If your opponents simply can’t let go of top pair or an overpair no matter how obvious it is that you have KK, then you don’t have to worry so much about balance. But if you find that after the flop, they are only putting more money in when they can beat an overpair, then you need to be at least a little more balanced.

That doesn’t mean you have to have an extremely wide range. Even raising (or limp-raising, as suggested here) with AK in addition to big pairs will make your range much more difficult to play against. Now people who call you with AJ or AQ trying to hit their Ace will be in for a nasty surprise, and people who see the flop and then fold if they don’t flop two-pair or a set will sometimes be folding the best hand when you have an unimproved AK.

4. Play Poker. It’s hard to outflop an overpair. Even with six people seeing the flop against you, KK will be the best hand on something like two-thirds of flops that don’t contain an Ace.  Of course you can’t generally tell which flops, which is where poker comes in. If you bet and get called or raised, you have to use what you know about your opponent, his position, and the board texture to decide whether you have the best hand. What I can promise you is that if you aren’t taking the pot down with the majority of your flop bets, then your opponents are continuing with hands worse than KK. So either you win a lot of pots with flop bets (in which case you shouldn’t always have an overpair when you bet) or you suck up the occasional loss and play big pots against hands worse than yours. Those are the only two options; you simply can’t be behind on the majority of flops, even when a lot of people call you.

Do you have a question for the Thinking Poker Mailbag? Please leave it as a comment below!

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22 Mar 14:57

Why the Alarmists’ Climate Models Are Worthless

by John Hinderaker
(John Hinderaker)

Climate alarmism is not based on empirical observation; rather, it is entirely predicated on computer models that are manipulated to generate predictions of significant global warming as a result of increased concentrations of CO2. But a model in itself is evidence of nothing. The model obeys the dictates of its creator. In the case of climate models, we know they are wrong: they don’t accurately reproduce the past, which should be the easy part; they fail to account for many features of the Earth’s present climate; and to the extent that they have generated predictions, those predictions have proven to be wrong. There is therefore no reason why anyone should rely on predictions of future climate that are generated by the models.

For a relatively simple and understandable explanation of why the climate models are worthless, check out this article by Dr. Tim Ball at Watts Up With That:

Realities about climate models are much more prosaic. They don’t and can’t work because data, knowledge of atmospheric, oceanographic, and extraterrestrial mechanisms, and computer capacity are all totally inadequate. Computer climate models are a waste of time and money.

Inadequacies are confirmed by the complete failure of all forecasts, predictions, projections, prognostications, or whatever they call them. It is one thing to waste time and money playing with climate models in a laboratory, where they don’t meet minimum scientific standards, it is another to use their results as the basis for public policies where the economic and social ramifications are devastating. Equally disturbing and unconscionable is the silence of scientists involved in the IPCC who know the vast difference between the scientific limitations and uncertainties and the certainties produced in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM).

IPCC scientists knew of the inadequacies from the start. Kevin Trenberth’s response to a report on inadequacies of weather data by the US National Research Council said

It’s very clear we do not have a climate observing system….This may come as a shock to many people who assume that we do know adequately what’s going on with the climate, but we don’t.

This was in response to the February 3, 1999 Report that said,

Deficiencies in the accuracy, quality and continuity of the records place serious limitations on the confidence that can be placed in the research results.

***
Before leaked emails exposed its climate science manipulations, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) issued a statement that said,

[General circulation models] are complex, three dimensional computer-based models of the atmospheric circulation. Uncertainties in our understanding of climate processes, the natural variability of the climate, and limitations of the GCMs mean that their results are not definite predictions of climate.

Phil Jones, Director of the CRU at the time of the leaked emails and former director Tom Wigley, both IPCC members, said,

Many of the uncertainties surrounding the causes of climate change will never be resolved because the necessary data are lacking.

Stephen Schneider, prominent part of the IPCC from the start said,

Uncertainty about feedback mechanisms is one reason why the ultimate goal of climate modeling – forecasting reliably the future of key variables such as temperature and rainfall patterns – is not realizable.

[Ed.: Steve Schneider is notorious for having been a hysterical advocate of human-caused global cooling before he became a hysterical advocate of human-caused global warming.] Schneider also set the tone and raised eyebrows when he said in Discover magazine:

Scientists need to get some broader based support, to capture the public’s imagination…that, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we may have…each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.

The IPCC achieved his objective with devastating effect, because they chose effective over honest.

Dr. Ball goes on to explain how general circulation models are constructed, and why they are so unreliable:

The surface [of the Earth] is covered with a grid and the atmosphere divided into layers. Computer models vary in the size of the grids and the number of layers. They claim a smaller grid provides better results. It doesn’t! If there is no data a finer grid adds nothing. The model needs more real data for each cube and it simply isn’t available. There are no weather stations for at least 70% of the surface and virtually no data above the surface. There are few records of any length anywhere; the models are built on virtually nothing. The grid is so large and crude they can’t include major weather features like thunderstorms, tornados, or even small cyclonic storm systems.

One thing I had not realized is that climate models are so complex that they require an unrealistic amount of computer time to perform a single run. As a result, the climateers simply leave out lots of variables:

Caspar Ammann said that GCMs (General Circulation Models) took about 1 day of machine time to cover 25 years. On this basis, it is obviously impossible to model the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (say the last 2 million years) using a GCM as this would take about 219 years of computer time.

So you can only run the models if you reduce the number of variables. O’Keefe and Kueter explain.

As a result, very few full-scale GCM projections are made. Modelers have developed a variety of short cut techniques to allow them to generate more results. Since the accuracy of full GCM runs is unknown, it is not possible to estimate what impact the use of these short cuts has on the quality of model outputs.

Omission of variables allows short runs, but allows manipulation and moves the model further from reality. Which variables do you include? For the IPCC only those that create the results they want.

The alarmists’ models cannot withstand scrutiny by qualified scientists who are not in on the scam:

Most don’t understand models or the mathematics on which they are built, a fact exploited by promoters of human caused climate change. They are also a major part of the IPCC work not yet investigated by people who work outside climate science. Whenever outsiders investigate, as with statistics and the hockey stick, the gross and inappropriate misuses are exposed.

There is much more, but let’s close with this:

The IPCC chapter on climate models appears to justify use of the models by saying they show an increase in temperature when CO2 is increased. Of course they do, that is how they’re programmed. Almost every individual component of the model has, by their admission, problems ranging from lack of data, lack of understanding of the mechanisms, and important ones are omitted because of inadequate computer capacity or priorities. The only possible conclusion is that the models were designed to prove the political position that human CO2 was a problem.

Scientists involved with producing this result knew the limitations were so severe they precluded the possibility of proving the result. This is clearly set out in the their earlier comments and the IPCC Science Report they produced. They remained silent when the [Summary for Policy Makers] claimed, with high certainty, they knew what was going on with the climate. They had to know this was wrong. They may not have known about the political agenda when they were inveigled into participating, but they had to know when the 1995 [Summary for Policy Makers] was published because Benjamin Santer exploited the SPM bias by rewriting Chapter 8 of the 1995 Report in contradiction to what the members of his chapter team had agreed. The gap widened in subsequent [Summaries for Policy Makers] but they remained silent and therefore complicit.

We are witnessing the greatest scandal in the history of science. Someday before long, the discreditable role played by Benjamin Santer, Michael Mann and others will be universally recognized. Until then, governments will continue to funnel billions of dollars to alarmist scientists to reward them for leading the charge for expanded government power.


    






16 Mar 18:19

Paleo Libertarians

by John Tierney

The Paleo ManifestoJohn Durant is the author of The Paleo Manifesto: Ancient Wisdom for Lifelong Health (Harmony), which tells the story of how he discovered his inner hunter-gatherer. He offers practical guidelines for making the transition to a meat-heavy, low-carb diet favored by humanity's paleolithic ancestors.

In December, New York Times science columnist John Tierney interviewed Durant at New York's Museum of Sex. They talked about the cultural and political history of today's industrial diets, why so many libertarians have gone paleo, and more.

Q: Give us an overview of The Paleo Manifesto.

A: A lot of the health conditions that people suffer from today-diabetes, obesity, auto-immune conditions-basically are mismatch conditions. By mismatch, I mean a mismatch between our primal genes and our primal biology, and how we evolved, and the lifestyles we lead today: our diet and sedentary activity patterns. The basic concept is by mimicking key aspects of our ancestral lifestyle or lifestyles you can prevent the onset of a lot of these chronic health conditions.

Q: Why are so many libertarians drawn to the paleo concept?

A: It's multifaceted. The first thing is that if you look at the organic movement and the existing food movement, it really sprang out of vegetarianism. If you look at the early organic movement, it's almost exclusively vegetarian. And there was a lot of political and ideological baggage that came along with that point of view. So there were a lot of people who were interested in optimal health, or simply just good health, who felt excluded from the food movement because it meant buying into all these other beliefs. So there was latent demand for a point of view like this.

Another factor is that libertarians tend to understand the power of spontaneous order-of how you can get very intelligent outcomes from decentralized solutions, like in an economy. You can have an emergent order. And you see the same thing in biological evolution. You have these intricate, incredible, well-coordinated life forms that have come about over millions of years of decentralized decision-making.

Libertarians tend to be a little bit less religious, and so are open to ideas about evolution. And when I'm talking to a libertarian and I make the point that the [U.S. Department of Agriculture] food pyramid is not God's truth, it doesn't require a lot of persuasion to convince libertarians that the official federal guidelines on diet are wrong.

Q: Could you tell me where the federal government, and maybe also where modern agricultural society, went wrong?

A: The big picture is that people started eating a lot of industrial food after the industrial revolution. Refined sugar, refined flour, hard alcohol became more common and were inexpensive. We know that humans are not adapted to industrial food.

The logical next step is to ask what we ate before we ate industrial food. Most people were farmers. Farmers grow grains and they have herds of cattle which they milk for dairy. So people think we should go back to that.

That's correct insofar as avoiding a heavily industrial diet is a probably good thing. But it's not correct in thinking that's the optimal human diet. We've only been eating agricultural foods for, at most, about 10,000 years.

In the 1970s, George McGovern chaired a Senate committee that established dietary goals for the United States. That's when a lot of the anti-fat orthodoxy got put into place officially, and when you started to see a greater push by the government to eat less fat-[which] usually meant fewer animal products-and eat more carbohydrates, which usually meant grains: wheat, corn, and legumes like soy. In our political history, that's when you start to see the shift to what I believe to be incorrect dietary guidelines.

Reason TV conducted a video interview with John Durant in December 2013.

07 Nov 22:32

Carter Worth: Breadth Has Been Deteriorating

by Joshua M Brown

There are a million different ways to observe market internals and breadth, but only a few important ones. Measuring the amount of stocks above a given moving average makes sense - as the broader market makes keeps making new highs, the last thing you want to see is leadership narrowing and less stocks in their own individual healthy uptrends. Unfortunately, as the S&P has been pushing into record territory, we've seen a bit of a divergence for its 500 components - although the overall numbers themselves are still healthy.

Oppenheimer's well-respected technician, Carter Worth, has been bearish for a while now, having issued his now notorious one-word research report over the summer, which simply said "Sell".  Bulls would argue that he's possibly biased and is looking for things to confirm that earlier view.

That being said, he's got a very good point here in a research note from November 4th:

Specifically, if one tracks stocks in the S&P 500 above their respective 150-day moving average and measures "breadth" based on this method—based on trend (stocks in healthy uptrends typically don’t fall below their 150-day moving average while stocks that are deteriorating do just that)... then one gets a much different picture.

150 day

 

As you can see, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 150-day during the May 22 high was 93%. This past week, at a new record high, it was 79.6%. Again, 79.6% is still pretty healthy, but the animal spirits have definitely been cooling off.

If one is only looking at the index level and not how it got there, this is the kind of thing that can be missed.

Three things can happen from here:

1. A real correction now.

2. Continued new highs but more stocks dropping out of the party. This would lead to a bigger correction down the line.

3. Continued new highs with that percentage turning back up again and a broader rally participation.

The thing about technical analysis is that it can lead you asking yourself the right question - but it's not going to be able to answer that question for you.

 

03 Nov 19:37

Strategy with Kristy: Poker Math Part 2 with Aaron Wilt

http://pnimg.net/w/articles/1/526/b5f365fb89.jpg

This week on the Strategy with Kristy podcast, Aaron "WiltOnTilt" Wilt comes back on the show to discuss how to use math in-game.

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04 Oct 15:37

The Vicious Cycle of New Jersey Property Taxes

States with high population density, like New Jersey or Connecticut, often face a dilemma concerning how to reconcile the tradeoff between necessary urban density and the green spaces that may improve the quality of life. As population density rises, green spaces shrink and more high-rises fill the formerly pastoral New England countryside. New Jersey, the most densely populated state in the nation, has responded to this challenge in the same way high-tax states respond to every challenge: new taxes.

New Jersey has what is known as the “Open Space Tax Program,” which is primarily administered at the county level. The first county programs began in 1989 and have expanded rapidly since. The Open Space Tax is levied as an extra property tax, ranging from 0.025 cents per $100 in Bergen County to 6 cents per $100 in Warren County. Its total annual revenues, as of 2012, were nearly $200 million. This tax is levied on existing properties with its revenues earmarked towards one objective: purchasing open space lands and keeping them open.

This is a deeply problematic goal. Land, especially “open” or undeveloped land, is a stock, meaning that it is a fixed quantity that does not change. Tax revenue, however, is a flow, meaning new amounts come in each year. As open space tax revenues accumulate, they are generally required to be spent on purchasing land. However, open land, as noted, is a fixed quantity: as counties buy it all up, the price of the remaining land will become more expensive. Furthermore, government buyers can outbid would-be private purchasers because the whole objective of open space tax funds is to purchase land, without any statutory regard for cost-effectiveness or alternative uses.

This policy, then, drives up land values by creating an over-funded purchaser (taxpayer-funded government agents) with no regard for a property’s various possible uses. Land that could be used for farms, neighborhoods, or businesses is taken out of the state’s available supply of land for development. What might have been a profitable and socially-desirable use of the land for some future entrepreneur is replaced with, literally, empty land.

Adding injury to insult, as available land for development shrinks, the price of existing land will be pushed higher, and New Jersey’s already high property taxes will increase. Having beautiful open land nearby further increases the property values of neighboring areas. The open space tax, by artificially inflating property values, can cause the burden of other property taxes to be higher.

Indeed, if New Jerseyans want to reduce their deeply unpopular, highest-in-the-nation property tax burden, one way to accomplish that goal would be to increase the amount of land available for development. Repealing open space taxes that drive up the price of land could allow expanded urban development, stop artificially increasing New Jersey’s land values, and slow the growth of property taxes. Preservation of scenic lands in parks and national forests can be a laudable goal for society, but it should be done with targeted appropriations for lands specifically deemed worthy of protection—not a distortionary policy that exacerbates the problem it is attempting to fix.

More on New Jersey here.

04 Sep 17:53

John McCain Caught Playing Poker During U.S. Senate Committee Hearing on Syria

Senator John McCain was photographed playing poker on his iPhone during a U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing on Tuesday.
02 Sep 19:45

CardRunners Instructor Grant Coombs Analyzes Losing Hands From Recent Cash Session

Check out this teaser video of CardRunners instructor Grant Coombs discussing hands he lost in a recent cash-game session.
01 Sep 18:05

These Screens Help You Find Good Short Candidates

Two specific screens found only in Investor's Business Daily can help you home in on great candidates to sell short. The first: The Stocks On The Move screen, updated throughout the trading day on the home page of Investors.com. This table is also published every day in the newspaper's "Making Money" section, today on Page B7. The second: The daily IBD Timesaver Table, today on Page B13. Keep a close eye on the names that have high IBD Ratings,
30 Aug 17:10

Gene Epstein: Murray Rothbard's Mixed Legacy

by Nick Gillespie

"The last thing government should be involved in is money," says Gene Epstein, who writes about economics for Barron's. He's also the author of Econospinning, a searing, book-length critique of media coverage of markets.

Epstein spoke with Reason's Nick Gillespie about why he's a devotee of the renegade Austrian School economist, Murray Rothbard. Epstein says Rothbard made him understand how government is an actor in the economy, not an objective overseer, but an entity with its own interests.

He also talked about how Rothbard's combative personality made him ill-suited for the political arena, and lamented Rothbard's late 1980s infatuation with Southern populism, Pat Buchanan, and even Klansman-turned-Republican David Duke.

Even with this baggage, Epstein believes Rothbard's legacy is redeemed by the intellectual stature of his writing and prolific output of books and articles, especially For a New Liberty and Man, Economy, and State.

The interview took place at this summer's Freedom Fest. Held each July in Las Vegas, Freedom Fest is attended by around 2,000 limited-government enthusiasts and libertarians. ReasonTV spoke with over two dozen speakers and attendees and will be releasing interviews over the coming weeks.

About 6 minutes. 

Produced by Anthony L. Fisher. Camera by Paul Detrick and Tracy Oppenheimer.

Scroll down for downloadable versions and subscribe to Reason TV's YouTube Channel to receive automatic notifications when new material goes live.

27 Aug 18:07

David Einhorn & Jim Chanos on Similarities Between Poker & Investing

by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly)
Bloomberg recently highlighted a poker tournament featuring hedge fund managers David Einhorn and Jim Chanos.  In it, they asked the hedgies to compare poker to investing. 

Einhorn said that, "Over time, as you invest in lots and lots of stocks over a long period of time, skill I think dominates.  And the same is true in poker.  If you play lots and lots of hands and lots and lots of tournaments, eventually the better players are going to come out on top." 

Chanos added that, "Like in investing, poker you deal with incomplete information."

This comparison is by no means new.  A few years ago, we highlighted the link between hedge fund managers and poker as many hedgies have played the game and commented on the similarities.

Embedded below is the Bloomberg video:



H/T Santangel's Review
26 Aug 13:22

America in crisis: Ben Affleck named as the new Batman

by Allahpundit

Nope.


I hate this genre but you have my sympathy, fanboys: You guys deserve better than this. And judging from Twitter reaction last night after the news broke, literally everyone — everyone — agrees. As Ben Domenech said, if you’re casting for a brooding, brilliant millionaire who channels his dark inner torment into superheroics, naturally your [...]

Read this post »

21 Aug 12:44

20 Insights from the Book ‘Superperformance Stocks’

by Ivanhoff

If you read Jesse Livermore’s “How to Trade in Stocks” from 1940, Nicolas Darvas’s ‘How I made 2M in the stock market” from 1960, Richard Love’s “Superperformance Stocks” from 1977, William O’Neil’s early version of “How to make money in stocks” from the 1990s or Howard Lindzon’s “The Wallstrip Edge” from 2008, you will realize that after so many years, the main thing that has changed in the market is the names of the winning stocks. Everything else important – the catalysts, the cyclicality in sentiment, has remained the same.

Here are some incredible insights from Richard Love’s book ‘Superperformance Stocks’. In his eyes, a superperformance stock is one that has at least tripled within a two-year period.

1. The first consideration in buying stock is safety.

Safety is derived more from the good timing of the purchase and less from the financial strength of the company. The stocks of the nation’s largest and strongest corporations have dropped drastically during general stock market declines.

The best time to buy most stocks is when the market looks like a disaster. It is then that the risk is lowest and the potential rewards are highest.

2. All stocks are price-cyclical

For many years certain stocks have been considered to be cyclical; that is, the business of those companies rose and fell with the business cycle. It was also assumed that some industries and certain companies were noncyclical— little affected by the changes in business conditions. The attitude developed among investors that cyclical industries were to be avoided and that others, such as established growth companies, were to be favored. To a  certain extent this artificial division of companies into cyclical and noncyclical has been deceptive because although the earnings of some companies might be little affected by the business cycle the price of the stock is often as cyclical as that of companies strongly affected by the business cycle. Virtually all stocks are price-cyclical. Stocks that are not earnings-cyclical often have higher price/earnings ratios, and thus are susceptible to reactions when the primary trend of the market begins to decline. This can occur even during a period of increasing earnings.

3.  A Superb Company Does Not Necessarily Have a Superb Stock. There are no sure things in the market

There has been a considerable amount of investment advice over the years that has advocated buying quality. ”Stick to the blue chips,” it said, “and you won’t be hurt.” But the record reveals that an investor can be hurt severely if he buys a blue chip at the wrong time. And even if he does not lose financially, he usually has gained very little, particularly considering the risks he has taken.

4. The catalysts

Superperformance is triggered by many actions, such as a surprise announcement of a large increase in a company’s earnings, or the decision of one company to merge with another. But most often it is found in stocks that are rebounding from oversold conditions, such as those characteristic of bear market bottoms

When stocks begin to regain strength after touching bear market lows, which are the stocks that bounce back fastest and strongest? Contrary to a belief held by some investment advisers, it is not the big, quality stocks…Rapidly increasing earnings were characteristic of most of the stocks on the list. Another notable feature is their size; these companies were all quite small – in terms of float and market cap

5. Sooner or later, all trends come to an end

Superperformance price action is not consistent year after year in even the greatest growth stocks. The stock prices usually move rapidly upward for a period of months or several years. This is the superperformance stage. The superperformance stage might be followed by a price reaction, or a sideways price movement. After a period of consolidation, which sometimes lasts for years, there might be another superperformance stage.

Most stocks experience declining prices after a superperformance phase has run its course. In many cases the price decline is severe. There appear to be three principal causes for the price reactions. These include weakness in the stock market in general, including the beginnings of a new bear market; the overpricing of stocks, which often results in profit-taking and a lack of new buying interest; and a drop in a stock’s earnings. However, in most of the latter instances the stock’s price began its slide before the reported earnings began to decline. In many cases, though, the earnings decline was undoubtedly anticipated by some investors.

6. Look for small float, small cap companies with innovative products

Opportunities for big gains in the stock market are more likely to occur in relatively small companies than in companies with many millions of shares outstanding. Look for a small company introducing a unique product that is likely to become widely used. This is the combination that has time after time resulted in dynamic growth and volatile superperformance stock-price action.

7. Change means opportunity, and change is the one thing that is certain.

The introduction or planned introduction of a unique new product can have a dynamic effect on the price of the stock of a relatively small company. Many investors tend to be attracted to new, developing situations and to ignore old, established, stable situations. A large, mature company is likely to remain relatively stable in price, thus offering comparatively little opportunity for large capital gains.

8. Growth, Growth, Growth

Any investor looking for large capital gains in the stock market should look for companies that are in the growth stage of the life cycle. These are usually companies that have been established for a few years; they have been in existence long enough so that their chances of survival are pretty good. But they are usually fairly small companies, with comparatively few shares of common stock issued, usually under ten million. The percentage growth of sales and earnings, and also the stock’s price, can usually be much more rapid for a five-million-share company than for a hundred-and fifty- million-share company, particularly if an appealing new product is being manufactured and large companies do not have the advantage of patents and established distribution channels for that particular product.

9. A good story can only get you so far

In choosing growth-stage companies, it is necessary to be very selective. Stock prices can be pushed up quickly because of a good promotion or story that usually describes impressive plans for future development. But in the long run stock prices are based on earning power. So the story has to begin to come true or else disillusioned investors will begin to sell their stock and drive down the price. As long as the story is coming true through satisfactorily increasing earnings, most investors will continue to hold their stock. Separating fact from fancy is the big job of investors who are searching for growth, and for superperformance price action based on growth.

10. Look for sudden earnings explosion. It will take awhile for the market to discount it properly

Earnings explosions are often of great significance because they call attention to newly developed earning power. Recently I ran across a small clipping I had torn from a local newspaper in the summer of 1963. The clipping reads: “Xerox Corporation in 6 months ended June 30 earned $10,327,031 or $2.66 a share vs. $5,658,165 or $1.74 in 1962 period.” That is an example of an earnings explosion: a large sudden increase in the profitability of a company. The earnings explosion occurred just after Xerox introduced its new copiers, and the earnings increase was directly traceable to revenues from the new copiers.

11. Rumors are also catalysts

One of the strongest forces propelling the price increase was the rumor, later confirmed, of a large increase in earnings. In this case the earnings for the 1963 fiscal year were more than quadruple the earnings for fiscal 1962. Of even greater importance than reported earnings, however, was the expectation in the minds of speculators that future earnings would be even larger. Syntex at that time was one of two companies pioneering the development of birth control pills. Investors could anticipate a very large market and increased earnings for the future. Thus, the expectation of large future earnings caused a buyers’ stampede for the stock.

12. Market is forward looking. Expectations Matter

Higher Earnings Are Usually Anticipated But how about earnings that are uncomplicated by manipulation, that are higher simply because the company had a much more profitable year? Let’s suppose the earnings are reported and they have doubled. The stock should go up in price, right? No, not necessarily. Not if a dozen mutual fund managers had expected earnings to triple, not merely double. They would be disappointed and might decide to sell. Other investors who had predicted the earnings increase might decide to sell on the news. Reports of large increases in earnings have their biggest impact when they come as a surprise. When that happens, almost everyone has an opportunity to participate in the resulting rise. Being able to interpret the effect that an earnings report will have on the market is very important. And even more significant is the light it might cast on the company’s prospects for continued future profits. Earning power, real and potential, is the most important feature to look for.

13. Multiples Expansion

Most superperformance price moves are caused not by developments such as increased earnings, but rather by overreaction of investors to those developments. The overreaction can be measured quite accurately by comparing the increase in the price to the increase in earnings—that is, by the expansion in the P/E ratio. Some of the biggest stock market profits are made by going along with the crowd while it pushes the price of a stock higher and higher in nonstop optimism.

14. Momentum and the fear of missing out

Sometimes the quickest profits are obtained during these periods of optimism in very active stocks that everyone seems to be aware of and many people are trading. But with this type of stock it is important to be in the action early. Cautious investors often delay their purchase until they are absolutely certain that they are right in buying a stock. It is often at this point that the stock, which has been going up in price for some time, is due for a reaction. Do not be too late in joining the action; it is also important not to overstay a position that has turned stale or has started to decline. Be alert for turns or changes in investor psychology. For your own protection it is discreet to use stop-loss orders if the price of a stock has risen rapidly.

15. Market is a giant mood ring

Just as there are times to go along with the bullish enthusiasm of the crowd, there are also times to leave, to stand aside. The time to sell is when the bullish drive is beginning to lose its momentum, to turn stale. Price superperformance phases do not last indefinitely. Most of them last only a couple of years, then the stock reacts into a downtrend or sideways price action. The prevailing mood of investors changes, often slowly, from bullish optimism, to doubt and apprehension, to bearish pessimism, and finally to panic as the decline accelerates. As with unbounded optimism, never underestimate the power of negative thinking.

Fear and pessimism become so overwhelming at times that even the strongest, most bullish-looking stocks are caught up in the selling deluge. The speculative mood of investors appears to move in waves of pessimism and optimism that are based on actual economic or political conditions but which greatly amplify those conditions.

16. The P/E ratio reflects the enthusiastic optimism or gloomy pessimism of investors.

More important than your mood is your sensitivity to whether the crowd is optimistic or pessimistic. The rewards are few if you are optimistic while the crowd is selling in waves of pessimism. The crowd may be wrong, but you cannot fight the crowd by yourself. If you try to buck the stampede, you will be trampled. If you buy a stock too early during a period of highly emotional selling, you will soon discover that you have a loss, and perhaps a large one. The time to be contrary, to sell or to pick up bargains, is after an emotional binge of mass optimism or pessimism has lost momentum and a reversal is imminent. Soon others will realize that the future is not as bleak or as rosy as it had appeared.

P/E ratios expand to higher multiples when the future looks very good; they contract to lower multiples when the future looks bleak or uncertain. P/E’s are sensitive measurements of mass psychology. The evidence indicates, therefore, that investor psychology is just the opposite of what it should be for successful investment, since P/E ratios have been high at the end of superperformance moves. But it is after a stock price has moved upward for two or three years that caution and a low P/E ratio are called for, since it is at this time that a price reaction is most likely to occur. And even the very best stocks have price reactions.

17. Value is subjective. Price is what the market is willing to pay you now.

A piece of property is worth as much as someone is willing to pay you for it. So it is with common stock. Find stocks for which you think someone will be willing to pay you a higher price at some time in the future. This approach is applicable to any type of investment—in a diamond, a painting, a bushel of corn or wheat, a house, a piece of land, or a share of common stock. The market price of the item reflects the psychological factors—the extremes of optimism and pessimism—that can cause the value of an item to vary widely, sometimes in just a few hours or days. When the market value of an item is plummeting, it reveals that the fear many people have of lower values for their property is stronger than their hopes for higher prices.

18. There often appears to be little relationship between the price of a stock and its inherent value.

Stocks that are overpriced relative to their inherent value often have severe price declines sooner or later, but many of them remain in an overpriced state for years before the price reaction occurs. In a similar way, some stocks of companies in unglamourous industries are frequently depressed in price, as compared with stocks in general. Throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s when most stock prices and the market averages were soaring, the steel industry stocks remained depressed. The mere fact that a stock is depressed in price relative to its inherent value does not necessarily mean that an adjustment will be made and that the stock’s price will rise. The stock can remain depressed for many, many years. Finding ”value” is not enough, by itself, to assure that a specific investment is good. The book values of stocks are relatively stable in comparison with their large fluctuations in market price.

19. The Art of taking profits

Timing the sale is more difficult than timing the purchase because stocks reach their bear market lows simultaneously, but their bull market highs are attained independently. Following the stock averages and selling when the primary trend turns down is often unsatisfactory, since numerous stocks reach their peaks prior to the peaks in the averages. The price and volume trend for each stock must be studied independently and action taken accordingly.

20. Short Selling

Profits in the stock market can usually be made faster by selling stocks short than by buying them. The reason is that price declines are usually much steeper than price rises, which occur more gradually, over a longer period of time, and are usually accompanied by a healthy amount of pessimism that gradually lessens the longer the price rise continues. Price declines, on the other hand, contain an element of panic that increases as stock prices plunge lower.

Source: Superperformance Stocks by Richard Love

The post 20 Insights from the Book ‘Superperformance Stocks’ appeared first on StockTwits 50.

14 Aug 14:14

Safe Streets, Overruled

by Heather Mac Donald

Safe Streets, Overruled

A judge’s appalling decision will endanger New York’s most vulnerable residents.

New York’s 20-year reprieve from debilitating violence may well be over. Yesterday, U.S. District Judge Shira Scheindlin ruled that the New York Police Department has been willfully targeting blacks and Hispanics for unlawful stop, question, and frisks based on their skin color alone, in violation of the Constitution. She appointed a federal monitor to oversee the department and to develop new policies to end its allegedly biased policing practices. If the monitor adopts Judge Scheindlin’s definition of unconstitutional policing, it’s not too soon for New Yorkers to start looking into relocation plans.

The key part of Scheindlin’s ruling is her discussion of the stops performed by one of the NYPD’s hardest-working members. Over a three-month period in 2009, the high-crime Fort Greene area of Brooklyn had seen a spate of robberies, burglaries, and gun violence. The robbery victims described their assailants as four to five black males between the ages of 14 and 19; the burglary victims reported the suspect as a Hispanic male in his thirties between five foot eight and five foot nine; and the shooting suspect was described as a black male in his twenties. During that three-month period, Officer Edgar Gonzalez of Brooklyn’s 88th Precinct conducted 134 stops, 128 of which involved black or Hispanic subjects. That stop ratio is consistent not only with the specific crime patterns then afflicting Fort Greene, but also with the overall crime rate in Gonzalez’s precinct. Blacks and Hispanics commit nearly 99 percent of all violent crime in the 88th Precinct and over 93 percent of all crime. In terms of sheer volume, few officers come anywhere close to Gonzalez’s absolute number of stops. (The allegedly draconian stop “quotas” about which the plaintiffs’ attorneys and a few underperforming cops complained during the trial set roughly two stops per month as a performance goal for officers.)

Scheindlin, however, apparently believes that population ratios are the proper benchmark for measuring the legality of stop activity. She points out that Gonzalez’s racial stop rate “far exceeds the percentage of blacks and Hispanics in the local population (60 percent).” In other words, though whites and Asians commit less than 1 percent of violent crime in the 88th Precinct and less than 6 percent of all crime, they should make up 40 percent of all stops—to match their representation in the local population. Never mind that the suspect descriptions that Gonzalez was given identified blacks and Hispanics as the robbery, burglary, and shooting suspects. To avoid an accusation of racial profiling, he should have stopped whites and Asians for crimes committed—according to their victims—exclusively by blacks and Hispanics.

Of course, just because crime victims identify blacks and Hispanics as their assailants doesn’t mean that race should be the primary determinant of who gets stopped —and there is no indication that it is. Thousands of blacks and Hispanics live in Fort Greene; Gonzalez stopped only a small proportion of them, basing his stops on their behavior and local crime information—for example, if they appeared to be casing a victim or burglary target at a time of day and location consistent with the current crime patterns. But it is preposterous to maintain, as Scheindlin does, that when race is included in a suspect’s description for a particular set of crimes, however generalized, it may not form the outer parameter of who gets stopped for those crimes.

The rest of Scheindlin’s opinion is equally blind to the realities of New York crime and policing. She shows little understanding of what it means to live in a high-crime neighborhood, where youths congregating on the corner can be the prelude to gun violence or a street rampage. She has accepted at face value the most far-fetched evidence against the NYPD, such as State Senator Eric Adams’s absurd and uncorroborated accusations against Commissioner Ray Kelly. She has potentially restricted the NYPD’s ability to monitor the performance of its commanders and officers and to make sure that they are actually working to keep the city safe.

The result is not only an insult to the most effective, professionally run police department in the country. It may also signal the end of the freedom from fear that New York’s most vulnerable residents have enjoyed for two decades.

Heather Mac Donald is a contributing editor of City Journal, the John M. Olin Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and the author of Are Cops Racist?

13 Aug 14:07

Weapuns of Math Destruction

28 Jul 22:51

Turkey Captures Bird, Accuses It of Spying for Israel — See Why They Finally Let It Go

by Sharona Schwartz

Turkish officials detained a bird after villagers accused it of spying for Israel’s intelligence agency, the Mossad, but then freed the winged creature after X-rays cleared it of suspicion.

The Milliyet newspaper reported that the kestrel – a type of falcon – was X-rayed at a university hospital to search for any microchips or bugging devices. Only when the scans came up clear was the bird allowed to go free. The newspaper carried a front-page image of the X-ray on Friday which revealed that scientists had dubbed the creature “Israeli agent” on the X-ray, Reuters reported.

Turkey X Rays Israeli Bird Accused of Being in Service of Mossad

An image of the X-ray as seen in the Turkish press. On the upper left, the Turkish words for “Israeli agent” are visible (Photo: Time Turk)

This comes on heels of other conspiracy theories about the Mossad in the Muslim world, including Egyptian accusations that Israel was behind a surge in shark attacks in the Red Sea, and concerns in Turkey that Israeli genetically-modified tomato seeds can be programmed to harm consumers.

Residents of Altınavya, a Turkish village, became suspicious when they saw that the bird was wearing a metal ring on its foot showing the words “24311 Tel Avivunia Israel,” Hurriyet Daily News reported. The Times of Israel noted that the tag belonged to Tel Aviv University. After capturing the little bird, the villagers delivered it to the local governor’s office.

From there, the bird went for a medical examination to look for microchips or spying equipment. Fırat University technicians concluded that “the bird was just a simple specimen of Israeli wildlife,” reported Hurriyet.

Turkey X Rays Israeli Bird Accused of Being in Service of Mossad

The metal tag on the foot of the bird that raised suspicions. It was a Tel Aviv University tag (Photo: Time Turk)

Ornithologists often tag birds in order to track migration routes.

The Times of Israel reported on even more accusations of the Mossad: “In May of 2012, authorities in Ankara dissected a European bee-eater [a type of bird] after becoming concerned that it was carrying an Israeli listening device, and in December an eagle with an Israeli tag in Sudan was captured and touted as a Mossad spy,” the English-language Israeli site reported.

The Atlantic ran an article last year looking at some of the more “outlandish conspiracy theories” including:

  • Calling a heavy metal music festival in Istanbul a Mossad front.
  • A suggestion by the head of Turkey’s Higher Education Board (YOK) that genetically-modified tomato seeds bought from Israel could be ‘programmed’ to harm Turks, if not destroy the whole Turkish nation.
  • A suspicion by Turkish farmers that the above mentioned European Bee Eater was an Israeli intelligence device, because it “had what seemed to be a very enlarged nostril, leading one local official to suggest that perhaps the bird had been implanted with some kind of microchip or spying device.” That bird, too, was cleared by agriculture officials of any suspicion. (An official with Israel’s Society for the Protection of Nature told The Atlantic last year that that bird had been banded four years before in a routine effort to track migration patterns.)
  • An Iranian accusation that it had caught Mossad spy squirrels and spy pigeons.

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